TSMC on Tesla's Next-Gen Dojo / Amazon's Robotaxi / The Negative Free Cash Flow Convo ⚡️

Welcome to we lecture 5, it's your host, Dylan Loomis, quick shout out to my newest patron, Manuel. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. The reason you will not see me on screen today, I did some hill sprints outside this afternoon and it's allergy season here and you can probably hear it in my voice. My eyes will not stop watering so just much easier not being on screen for today's video. TSMC just held its 2024 technology symposium and we actually learned some things about Tesla's dojo. TSMC revealed some new semiconductor technology and detailed some new chip packaging strategies and the latter could accelerate a trend toward processors made from more and more silicon such a system. Tesla's next generation dojo training tile is already in production. Now I have to say where they're saying such a system Tesla's next generation dojo training tile is already in production. They could just be referring to the first generation of dojo and for some reason calling it next generation. However that seems unlikely because the current dojo tile that's been in production that we've known about for a while was version 1 so to refer to that as next generation doesn't make a lot of sense but I just wanted to put that out there. And even if the next generation of dojo is not in production yet it will be eventually if he go back to the Q4 call last year Elon said we have plans for dojo 1.5 dojo 2 dojo 3 and whatnot.

欢迎来到我们的第5讲，我是主持人迪伦·卢米斯，特别感谢我的最新赞助人曼努尔。感谢您选择支持本频道。今天您看不到我的画面是因为今天下午我在外面进行了一些山地短跑，这里是过敏季节，您可能能听到我的声音中带有过敏症状。我的眼睛不停地流泪，所以今天的视频没有画面会更加容易。 台积电刚刚举办了2024技术研讨会，我们实际上了解到了有关特斯拉的道场的一些信息。 台积电揭示了一些新的半导体技术，并详细介绍了一些新的芯片封装策略，后者可能加速了向使用越来越多硅制造的处理器趋势。 特斯拉的下一代道场培训芯片已经开始生产。 现在我不得不说，当他们说特斯拉的下一代道场培训芯片已经开始生产时，可能是指第一代道场，但因为当前的道场芯片已经生产，我们一直知道它是第1版，所以称其为下一代没有太多意义，但我只是想说一下。即使下一代的道场尚未生产，最终也会生产出来，如果回顾去年第四季度的电话会议，埃隆说我们有关于dojo 1.5、dojo 2、dojo 3等的计划。

And in 2027 TSMC plans to offer technology for more complex wafer scale systems than Tesla's that could deliver 40 times as much computing power as today's systems. For decades chip makers increased the density of logic on processors largely by scaling down the area that transistors take up and the size of interconnects but that scheme has been running out of steam for a while now instead the industry is turning to advanced packaging technology that allows a single processor to be made from a larger amount of silicon. And that idea is what TSMC is now calling its system on wafer. That's important because AI training is the obvious first application for wafer scale tech but it's not the only one and may not be the best. Another promising application is for data centers. Such a system could cut the number of advanced networks which is in a very large 16,000 rack data center from 4,608 down to just 48. The core of Tesla's dojo is the D1 chip which was designed by Tesla and yes the current generation is indeed manufactured by TSMC using the 7 nanometer process.

到2027年，台积电计划提供比特斯拉更复杂的晶圆尺度系统技术，其计算能力可达今天系统的40倍。几十年来，芯片制造商主要通过缩小晶体管占据的面积和互连线的尺寸来增加处理器上的逻辑密度，但这种方案现在已经失去了动力，因此该行业正在转向先进封装技术，使单个处理器可以由更多硅量制成。这就是台积电现在称之为晶圆系统的概念。这一点很重要，因为人工智能训练显然是晶圆尺度技术的首要应用，但并非唯一且可能并非最佳应用。另一个前景看好的应用是数据中心。这样的系统可以将一个庞大的16,000机架的数据中心中的先进网络数量从4,608个减少到只有48个。特斯拉的“道场”核心是D1芯片，该芯片由特斯拉设计，而目前一代确实是由台积电采用7纳米工艺制造。

And listen I know Elon said dojo is a long shot but there's also a chance he was downplaying it publicly on purpose to of course maintain relations with Nvidia. And as we just talked about in a recent episode the word on the street is that Tesla's dojo is already accounting for about 21% of the training happening for Tesla's FSD. And now we learn that Tesla's next generation of dojo, whatever that may look like is already in production straight from TSMC. I'd also caution everyone is careful with comparing different metrics or compute capacity of a chip like the Nvidia H100 with dojo because Tesla's dojo is designed specifically to train FSD and video data. Additionally one of the defining characteristics of dojo is its extreme scalability.

听着，我知道埃隆说道场是一个不太可能的事情，但也有可能他是故意在公开场合低调，当然是为了维护与英伟达的关系。正如我们在最近的一集中谈到的，街头传言称特斯拉的道场已经占到了特斯拉全自动驾驶培训中约21%的份额。现在我们得知特斯拉的下一代道场，无论外观如何，已经在台积电开始生产。我也要警告大家谨慎地比较不同指标或计算能力，比如英伟达H100和道场，因为特斯拉的道场是专门设计用于训练全自动驾驶和视频数据的。此外，道场的一个显著特点是其极强的可扩展性。

Tesla told us it'll be an order of magnitude higher from an interconnected bandwidth than typical distributed systems. Here it is, it was optimized for neural network training workloads and built from the ground up with large systems in mind. So as Tesla's data collection scales with FSD rolling out globally that should in theory continue to benefit dojo. So basically with dojo the chip to chip and board to board communication that bandwidth should be much better than some of the off the shelf options. It's certainly encouraging to hear Tesla's dojo supplier planning to make big leaps forward potentially confirming Tesla's next gen dojo is in production and I'd also remind everyone Tesla's surviving at all was also a long shot and dojo does not have to be better than Nvidia at every head to head metric to make a real contribution given the specificity of the chip and further as it scales it keeps Tesla from paying those 75% margins to Nvidia.

特斯拉告诉我们，相较于 typcial 分布式系统，通过互连带宽将增加一个数量级。这个系统被优化用于神经网络训练任务，并从头开始考虑大型系统。所以随着全球推出FSD，特斯拉的数据收集不断扩大，理论上应该继续使得 dojo 受益。因此，基本上通过 dojo，芯片与芯片之间以及板卡之间的通信带宽应该比一些现成选项更好。听到特斯拉的 dojo 供应商计划取得重大进展令人鼓舞，这可能会确认特斯拉的下一代 dojo 已经投入生产。我也提醒大家，特斯拉幸存下来本身就是一种偶然，dojo 不必在每一个对比指标上都比 Nvidia 更强，只要提供了真正的贡献，考虑到芯片的特殊性，随着规模扩大，可以让特斯拉避免向 Nvidia 支付75%的利润率。

Those add up quickly when you're spending billions of dollars each year on compute and as Tesla's data training grows and dojo adds more chips to the training stack it'll continually boost the efficiency of the training since that's how it was designed and that's really where it will shine.

当你每年在计算上花费数十亿美元时，这些费用会迅速累积起来，随着特斯拉的数据训练不断增长和dojo为训练堆栈添加更多芯片，训练的效率将不断提升，因为这正是设计的初衷，也是它真正发光的地方。

Bill Gurley put forth what I think really should be some conventional wisdom saying VC investors would be thrilled to have all CEOs sign up for Elon and Tesla like comp packages that deeply align CEO interest with shareholder interest a.k.a. performance based compensation plans that way you don't have CEOs like Peter Rawlinson taking home nearly 400 million dollars in compensation when they haven't come close to profitability nor have they sold that many cars.

比尔·格利提出了我认为应该成为常识的观点，即风险投资者们会为所有CEO签署类似于特斯拉和埃隆的薪酬计划而感到高兴，这种计划会深度将CEO的利益与股东利益紧密联系在一起，即绩效为基础的薪酬计划。这样一来，就不会出现像彼得·罗林森一样的CEO带走近4亿美元的薪酬，而公司却远未盈利，也没有卖出那么多汽车。

There were some reports today about Tesla's Megapack factory in China beginning construction we've already heard about this for weeks but as you can see from the latest video from WUWA it's really still just a muddy field construction has not begun yet. There may have been some minor prep work that's already taken place but for me I'm expecting production to begin sometime optimistically toward the end of quarter one 2025 but as you can see there's clearly still a long way to go so just be careful with all of those reports about construction beginning.

今天有关于特斯拉在中国的Megapack工厂开始建设的报道，虽然我们已经听说了几周了，但从乌瓦最新的视频可以看出，那里实际上只是一片泥泞的地盘，建设工作还未开始。可能已经做了一些小的准备工作，但我预计生产最乐观地会在2025年第一季度末开始，但显然还有很长的路要走，所以在听到有关建设开始的报道时要小心。

Joe Tettmaier reported it looks like a major media event for VIPs to formerly commission Tesla's Megapack at Giga Austin. This project will provide backup power for the factory at Giga Austin and will be able to support the grid as well.

Joe Tettmaier报告说，看起来像是一场为要员正式委托特斯拉在Giga Austin的Megapack的重大媒体活动。这个项目将为Giga Austin工厂提供备用电力，并且还可以支持电网。

Top Gear put out another video with a cyber truck this time they showed some new accessories this was just a prototype but it's a cooler that fits right in the front and through a software update the front sensitivity has been fixed and adjusted. Most of the video was talking about camp mode and the cyber truck tent but I learned that Tesla designed this tent in partnership with Hyne Planet. If you're not familiar they're a company who does higher end camping gear so I thought that was a cool fun fact. It was also nice to see Martin Vieja dunking on the industry talking about that video saying regular software updates for the win. How is this not an industry standard 12 years since Model S launched? Honestly though to Martin I would say because designing and building a computer on wheels with your own hardware and software stacks is really hard and requires a lot of talent from software engineers and it involves risk and most of the legacy companies are not built to do any of the above.

Top Gear发布了另一个视频，这次是与一辆电动皮卡有关，他们展示了一些新的配件，这只是一个原型，但是有一个可以完全嵌入前部的冷却器，并通过软件更新修复和调整了前部的灵敏度。视频大部分是在讨论露营模式和电动皮卡帐篷，但我了解到特斯拉与Hyne Planet合作设计了这个帐篷。如果你不熟悉，他们是一家生产高端露营装备的公司，所以我觉得这是一个有趣的事实。看到马丁·维埃哈在评论视频时批评了这个行业，说定期的软件更新胜出。为什么12年过去了，Model S推出以来，这还不成为行业标准呢？但老实说，对于马丁，我要说，因为设计和构建一辆带有自己硬件和软件堆栈的轮式计算机确实很困难，需要来自软件工程师的很多才华，并且涉及风险，大多数传统公司没有能力做到这些。

S&P Global came out and reaffirmed Tesla's BBB credit rating so nothing has changed. Now it is true that last summer Elon said why ESG is the devil and he quote posted from S&P Global. Tobacco companies are crushing Tesla in the ESG ratings. So yes I'm fully aware that S&P Global when it comes to ESG ratings is an absolute scam. However this is different when it comes to credit ratings there are sometimes things we can actually learn.

标准普尔全球公司出面并确认了特斯拉的BBB信用评级，所以没有变化。现在事实上，去年夏天埃隆说过ESG是恶魔，并且引用了标准普尔全球公司的言论。烟草公司在ESG评级中击败了特斯拉。所以我完全明白，当涉及ESG评级时，标准普尔全球公司绝对是骗局。然而，当涉及信用评级时，有时我们确实能学到一些东西。

They said we expect Tesla's EBITDA margin to remain strong over the next two years. Tesla appears likely to stem further declines for the remainder of 2024 with better manufacturing efficiency. Tesla's strong liquidity provides its sufficient financial flexibility though we still expect free operating cash flow to decline over the next two years relative to 2022 and 2023 levels. And yes there is a difference between free cash flow and operating cash flow. So the easiest way to think about that free cash flow is after a company's capital expenditures. For Tesla's case in quarter one they spent a billion dollars on that AI infrastructure. Operating cash flow on the other hand does not account for any capital expenditures throughout the year so it's really just focusing on the actual business operations. Tesla provides its own chart for this. The blue is the operating cash flow and the red is going to be free cash flow. As we talked about after the earnings call Tesla maintaining 200 million dollars of operating cash flow even despite all of the one-offs in quarter one and the inventory build is an impressive feat. Back to S&P despite Tesla's expected decline in operating cash flow Tesla's cash flow metrics will remain better than most investment grade automakers through 2025 with nearly 27 billion dollars in cash and with their estimates for positive cash flow for the rest of 2024 and solid access to the ABS markets we believe Tesla will maintain strong liquidity. Tesla's cash balances remain well above our established thresholds which are around 15% of sales for Ford and GM to peers that contend with higher industry cyclicality.

他们表示，我们预计特斯拉的EBITDA利润率在未来两年内将保持强劲。特斯拉似乎有可能通过更好的制造效率在2024年剩下的时间内遏制进一步下降。特斯拉的强大流动性为其提供了足够的财务灵活性，尽管我们仍然预计在未来两年内，与2022年和2023年水平相比，自由经营现金流量将会下降。是的，自由现金流与经营现金流之间有所不同。所以想要最简单地理解自由现金流，就是在扣除公司资本支出之后所剩余的现金流。以特斯拉为例，在第一季度他们在AI基础设施上花费了十亿美元。另一方面，经营现金流并不考虑全年的任何资本支出，因此它真的只关注实际的业务运营。特斯拉为此提供了自己的图表。蓝色代表经营现金流，红色代表自由现金流。正如我们在财报电话会议后所讨论的，尽管在第一季度发生许多一次性事件和库存增长，特斯拉仍保持着2亿美元的经营现金流，这是一项令人印象深刻的成就。回到标普500指数，尽管预计特斯拉的经营现金流将会下降，但特斯拉的现金流指标将在2025年前维持优于大多数投资级汽车制造商，拥有将近270亿美元的现金以及他们对2024年剩下的时间有正现金流的估计以及对ABS市场的稳固准入，我们相信特斯拉将保持强大的流动性。特斯拉的现金余额仍远远超过我们建立的门槛，对于需要应对更高行业周期性的同行，福特和通用的现金余额大约占销售额的15%。

They said we revised our management and governance score too moderately negative from neutral. That's to reflect a lack of board effectiveness, key man risk and exposure to an uncommon high level of contingent liabilities or lawsuits relative to the company's size and peers. The last thing I wanted to highlight they said though none of these lawsuits or investigations so far have had any material impact on Tesla's brand or strong financial condition. But yes if you wanted to say Tesla's credit rating doesn't really matter because they don't plan to access capital and the debt markets that's totally fine but again the overall outlook financially for Tesla from S&P is quite strong. And keep in mind that certain funds or investors will only invest in investment grade companies.

他们说，我们将管理和治理评分从中立转为稍微负面。这是为了反映董事会效率不高、关键人风险以及相对于公司规模和同行业公司而言，承受了不寻常高水平的潜在责任或诉讼风险。我想强调的最后一点是，尽管迄今为止这些诉讼或调查并没有对特斯拉的品牌或坚实的财务状况产生任何实质影响。但是如果你想说特斯拉的信用评级并不重要，因为他们并不打算融资或债务市场，那完全没问题，但从标普的整体财务展望来看，特斯拉的情况非常强劲。请记住，某些基金或投资者只会投资于投资级公司。

I also wanted to highlight that S&P report and the free cash flow versus operating cash flow so when you see charts like this about BYD's free cash flow going negative for quarter one you can say to yourself well hey maybe BYD actually had a large capital expenditure during quarter one that caused this to go negative just like happened to Tesla. So my point with all of this is on the surface to look at a free cash flow number going negative and then to argue well the sky is falling for whatever company it's just not enough analysis because you have to go further and figure out were there any capital expenditures during the quarter. But don't misunderstand me here I'm not criticizing AJ in the comments he did point out BYD's CapEx for Q1 but I've seen plenty of people throwing around these negative free cash flow numbers for BYD and Tesla without any context about CapEx and it's just not the right way to do it.

我还想强调标普报告和自由现金流与经营现金流之间的关系，所以当你看到关于比亚迪第一季度自由现金流为负数的图表时，你可以自问，也许比亚迪在第一季度进行了大笔资本支出，导致现金流为负，就像特斯拉一样发生过。我的观点是，仅仅看到自由现金流变负，然后就断定某家公司情况不妙，这样的分析还远远不够，因为你必须进一步弄清楚在本季度是否有任何资本支出。但请不要误解我，我并不是在批评评论中的AJ，他确实指出了比亚迪在第一季度的资本支出，但我看到很多人没有提到比亚迪和特斯拉的负自由现金流数字的背景资料，就随意评论，这并不是正确的做法。

In case you saw this article from Reuters talking about Tesla retreating from the next gen giga casting process which was supposed to be one giga cast for the whole vehicle it's mostly a nonsense article. The trouble here is we don't know how far Tesla ever got toward committing to a one-piece casting in the first place. I'm sure they were exploring and talking to suppliers but that doesn't ever mean they actually committed to it. I also saw a bunch of people criticizing Reuters because they were talking about Tesla using a three-piece cast the front the rear and the middle and while it's probably more accurate to say to just for the front and the rear if you go to Tesla's investor day you can see on the screen they are talking about the unboxed process having a front rear and other casting they said the step back on giga casting occurred last autumn.

如果你看到路透社的这篇文章谈到特斯拉退出下一代超级铸造工艺，该工艺原本是为整个车辆打造一次性铸造，这篇文章大部分都是无稽之谈。问题在于我们不知道特斯拉在一开始向一体式铸造做出多大承诺。我相信他们曾经在探索和与供应商进行对话，但这并不意味着他们真的承诺过这一点。我还看到很多人批评路透社，因为他们提到特斯拉使用三段式铸造，前后和中间部分，虽然更准确的说法可能是只有前后部分，如果你去特斯拉的投资者日，你可以看到屏幕上他们正在谈论无盒工艺过程中的前后部分以及其他铸件，他们说超级铸造工艺退步发生在去年秋天。

I did think it was worth sharing though because there is a chance that Tesla has explored the single giga cast and realized that maybe the upfront investment just is not worth it from a cost savings perspective and engineering it would be too difficult so yeah ideally would Tesla have a single cast for the next gen platform maybe but you have to ask the question at what cost.

我认为还是值得分享的，因为特斯拉可能已经探索了单一铸造件，意识到从成本节约和工程角度来看，投入资源可能并不值得。因此，在理想情况下，特斯拉可能会在下一代平台上采用单一铸造件，但你必须问一下，代价是什么。

Bloomberg said Tesla's top HR executive Ali Arabolo has left the company at this point it's not clear if she was fired or if she left on her own. I'm just speculating here but if she was the individual tasked with letting a lot of these people go maybe she just didn't want to deal with it. Just remember with Tesla saying they're laying off more than 10% maybe up to 20% of staff over the coming days and weeks will actually find out which departments have been reduced.

彭博社表示，特斯拉的首席人力资源执行官阿里·阿拉博洛已经离开了公司，目前尚不清楚她是被解雇还是自己离职。我只是在猜测，如果她是负责裁员的人，也许她不想处理这个问题。请记住，特斯拉表示他们将裁员超过10％，甚至可能高达20％的员工，在未来的几天和几周内我们将实际了解到哪些部门受到了减少。

Stopping by Ali's LinkedIn page she had worked at Tesla for over six years in HR. It's probably a good time to travel back in time to look at something Elon said six years ago. Difficult but necessary Tesla reorganization underway my email to the company has already leaked to the media here it is. Here's the beginning of it Tesla has grown and evolved rapidly over the past several years which has resulted in some duplication of roles and sub job functions that while they made sense in the past are difficult to justify today.

停留在Ali的LinkedIn页面上，她在特斯拉的人力资源部门工作了六年以上。现在或许是时候回顾埃隆六年前说过的一些话了。艰难但必要的特斯拉重组正在进行中，我的邮件已经泄露到了媒体，以下是邮件的内容：特斯拉在过去几年里迅速发展和演变，这导致了一些角色和子职能的重复，虽然这在过去是有道理的，但在今天却难以自圆其说。

In the next part of the email he called it a company wide restructuring. So here's proof this has absolutely happened before at Tesla however it's not all great as Elon did say in that email I also want to emphasize we're making this hard decision now so that we never have to do this again. Well that was certainly a bit over optimistic. As part of Tesla's spring update the auto park features are getting some updates to begin it no longer takes up the entire left portion of the screen. They're also saying that for model SNX if you're doing a K turn it'll be able to automatically shift to drive or reverse on its own. The word is this is also in development for the model 3 performance so hopefully it rolls out to other models as well.

在电子邮件的下一个部分，他称其为全公司范围的重组。这表明特斯拉以前确实发生过类似的事情，但并非一切都很美好，因为埃隆在那封电子邮件中也说到我想强调我们现在做出这个艰难的决定，以便以后永远不必再这样做。嗯，那肯定有点过于乐观了。作为特斯拉春季更新的一部分，汽车停车功能正在进行一些更新，开始不再占据整个屏幕左侧的位置。他们还表示，对于SNX型号，如果你正在做调头，它将能够自动切换到驱动或倒车。据说这也正在开发用于3型性能型号，所以希望它也能推出其他型号。

For the last few years Amazon zooks has been totally in the shadows very few updates. Now we're learning that by the end of this year they're expecting zooks to begin a commercial driverless service. It's not a done deal but they said the experience could start with a robot taxi service offered as part of Amazon's prime membership program. To date zooks has been providing ride healing services for employees and it plans to launch that commercial robot taxi service in Las Vegas this year. There have been some limitations in terms of what circumstances zooks can operate in and NHTSA is still examining whether the company's robot taxi conforms with the FMVS standards.

在过去的几年里，亚马逊旗下的zooks一直处于阴影中，几乎没有更新。现在我们得知，他们预计在今年年底前推出商业无人驾驶服务。虽然这还没有确定，但他们表示体验可能从提供机器人出租车服务开始，作为亚马逊prime会员计划的一部分。迄今为止，zooks一直为员工提供乘车服务，并计划今年在拉斯维加斯推出商业机器人出租车服务。zooks在运营方面存在一些限制，国家公路交通安全管理局仍在审查该公司的机器人出租车是否符合FMVS标准。

Tesla stock closed the day at $179.99 down 1.8% while the NASDAQ was down 0.33%. It was a lower volume day trading about 13 million shares below the average volume the past 30 days. Hope you guys have a wonderful day please like the video if you did you can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters.

特斯拉股票收于179.99美元，下跌1.8%，而纳斯达克下跌0.33%。当天的交易量较低，约1300万股，低于过去30天的平均交易量。希望大家有一个美好的一天，请喜欢视频，如果您喜欢的话，您可以在下面找到我，非常感谢我所有的patreon支持者。