Live: Tesla Q1 Earnings Call 2024 (TSLA)
发布时间 2024-04-23 23:07:28 来源
My name is Martin Vieja, VP of Industrial Relations and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Vibaf Danecia and a number of other executives. Our Q1 results were announced at about 3 PM Central time. In the update deck, we published at the same link as this webcast. During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events and results could differ materially due to a number of risk uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. During the question and answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please use the raise hand button to join the question queue. But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon? Thanks, Martin. So to recap, in Q1, we navigated several unforeseen challenges, as well as the ramp for the updated Model 3 and Fremont. There was, as people have seen, the EV adoption rate globally is under pressure and a lot of other water manufacturers are pulling back on EVs and pursuing plug-in hybrids instead. We believe this is not the right strategy, and electric vehicles will ultimately dominate the market. Despite these challenges, the Tails team did a great job executing a tough environment and energy storage deployments for MegaPAT in particular, reaching all-time high in Q1, leading to record profitability for the energy business. And that looks likely to continue to increase in the quarters and years ahead. It will increase. We actually know that it will. So significantly faster than the car business, as we expected. We also continue to expand our AI training capacity in Q1 more than doubling our training compute, sequentially. In terms of the new product roadmap, there's been a lot of talk about our upcoming vehicle line in the past several weeks. We've updated our future vehicle line up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead, previously mentioned start of production in the second half of 2025.
我是Martin Vieja，工业关系副总裁，今天与我一起的是Elon Musk，Vibaf Danecia和其他几位高管。我们的Q1业绩在中央时间下午3点左右公布。在我们发布的更新演示文稿中，与本次网络研讨会相同的链接。在本次通话中，我们将讨论我们的业务前景并进行前瞻性陈述。这些评论是基于我们今天的预测和期望。实际事件和结果可能因为许多风险不确定因素而有所不同，包括我们最近提交给SEC的文件中提到的那些。在今天的问题和答案环节中，请限制您的问题和追问为一问一答。请使用举手按钮加入问题队列。但在进入问答环节之前，Elon有一些开场话要讲。Elon？谢谢，Martin。所以总结一下，我们在Q1应对了一些意外挑战，以及为Fremont更新Model 3的加速。正如大家所看到的，全球电动汽车的普及率面临压力，许多其他汽车制造商正在放缓电动汽车的发展，转而推进插电混合动力车型。我们认为这不是正确的策略，电动汽车将最终主导市场。尽管面临这些挑战，Tails团队在一个艰难的环境中执行得非常出色，并在Q1达到了能源业务的盈利创纪录的最高水平，尤其是MegaPAT的能源存储部署。这看起来可能会在未来季度和年度继续增长。它将增长。我们确实知道它会。所以比我们预期的汽车业务增长速度要快得多。在Q1，我们还继续扩大我们的AI训练能力，顺序上的计算再次增加了一倍以上。在新产品路线图方面，在过去几周一直对我们即将推出的车辆系列进行了许多讨论。我们已更新了我们的未来车型阵容，以加速新车型的推出，之前提到的在2025年下半年开始生产。
We expect it to be more like the early 2025, if not late this year. These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will use aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to produce on the same many factoring lines as our current vehicle lineup. So it's not contingent on any new factory or massive new production line. It'll be made on our current production lines much more efficiently. And we think this should allow us to get to over three million vehicles of capacity when realized the full extent. Regarding FSD version 12, which is the pure AI based self-driving, if you haven't experienced this, I strongly urge you to try it out. It's profound.
我们预计这将更像是2025年初，如果不是在今年晚些时候。这些新车型，包括更具实惠的车型，将使用下一代平台的一些方面以及我们当前平台的一些方面，并将能够在与我们当前车型阵容相同的许多生产线上生产。因此，这并不取决于任何新工厂或大规模生产线。它将更加高效地在我们当前的生产线上制造。我们认为这应该允许我们在实现全面的情况下达到超过三百万辆的汽车产能。关于基于纯人工智能的自动驾驶FSD版本12，如果您还没有体验过这一点，我强烈建议您尝试一下。这是深远的。
The rate of improvement is rapid. So we've now turned that on for all cars with the cameras and in first computer, everything from hardware three in North America. So it's been pushed out to around 1.8 million vehicles. And we're seeing about half of people use it so far. And that percentage is increasing with each passing week. So we now have over 300 billion miles that have been driven with FSD V12. Since the launch of full self-driving, supervised full self-driving, it's become very clear that the vision-based approach with end-to-end neural networks is the right solution for scalable autonomy. And it's really how humans drive. Our entire road network is designed for biological neural nets and eyes. So naturally, cameras and digital neural nets are the solution to our current road system. To make it more accessible, we've reduced the subscription price to $99 a month so it's easy to try out.
改进速度很快。我们现在已经为所有配备摄像头和首台计算机的汽车启用了这项功能，北美硬件版本三的所有车型都已经升级。目前已经推出了大约180万辆车。迄今为止，大约有一半的人在使用这项功能。而且这一比例每周都在增加。因此，到目前为止，全自动驾驶V12已经行驶了超过3000亿英里。自全面自动驾驶的推出以来，监督全自动驾驶已经非常明显，基于视觉的端对端神经网络是可扩展自主系统的正确解决方案。这正是人类驾驶的方式。我们的整个道路网络都是为生物神经网络和眼睛设计的。因此，摄像头和数字神经网络自然是我们当前道路系统的解决方案。为了更容易尝试，我们将订阅价格降低至每月99美元。
And as we've announced, we will be showcasing our purpose-built robot taxi or cybercap in August. Regarding AI compute, over the past few months, we've been actively working on expanding Tesla's core AI infrastructure. For a while there, we were training constrained in our progress. We are at this point no longer training constrained, and so we're making rapid progress. We've installed and commissioned, meaning they're actually working 35,000 H100 computers or GPUs. And GPU is wrong with, they need a new word. I always feel like a wince when I say GPU because not GPUs, that's G-central graphics, into new graphics. But roughly 35 plus H100 is proactive.
正如我们宣布的，我们将在8月展示我们专门设计的机器人出租车或智能出租车。关于人工智能计算，在过去的几个月里，我们一直在积极扩展特斯拉的核心人工智能基础设施。有一段时间，我们在进展方面受到了限制。现在我们不再受到训练的限制，因此我们正在快速进展。我们已经安装并投入使用了35,000台H100计算机或GPU。关于GPU，需要一个新词。每次我说GPU时，我总觉得有点不舒服，因为不是GPU，那是G-中央图形，而是新的图形。大约35多台H100是主动的。
And we expect that to be probably 85,000 or they're about by the end of this year. And training, just for training. We are making sure that we're being as efficient as possible in our training. It's not just about the number of H100s but how efficiently they're used. So in conclusion, we're super excited about our autonomy road map and get it to be obvious to anyone who's driving version 12 and a Tesla that is only a matter of time before we exceed the reliability of humans and not much time at that. And we're really headed for an electric vehicle, an autonomous future. And I'll go back to something I said, so over years ago, that in the future, gasoline cars that are not autonomous will be like riding a horse and using a flip-boat. And that will become very obvious in hindsight. We continue to make the necessary investments that will drive the growth and profits will test in the future. And I wanted to thank the Tesla team for incredible execution during this period and look forward to everything that we have planned ahead. Thanks. Thank you very much. And I'll buy back to some comments as well. Thanks. You know, it's important to acknowledge what Elon said from our auto business perspective.
我们预计到今年年底，H100的数量可能会达到85,000左右。而这主要是为了培训。我们确保我们在培训方面尽可能高效。重要的不仅仅是H100的数量，还有它们的有效利用。因此，总的来说，我们对我们的自动驾驶路线图感到非常兴奋，并且很快任何驾驶版本12和特斯拉的人都会意识到，我们超越人类的可靠性只是时间问题。我们确实正在迈向电动车、自动驾驶的未来。正如我曾经说过的一样，在未来，未实现自动驾驶的汽油车将会像骑马和使用翻身船一样过时。这在事后将会非常明显。我们将继续进行必要的投资，推动特斯拉未来的增长和利润。我要感谢特斯拉团队在这个时期的出色执行，并期待着我们未来的计划。谢谢，非常感谢。同样，我也要回应一些评论。很重要的一点是要承认，从我们汽车业务的角度来看，埃隆说的话很重要。
We did see a decline in revenues quarter over quarter. And those were primarily because of seasonality on certain macroeconomic environment and the other reasons which Elon had mentioned earlier. Auto margins declined from 18.9 to 18.5%, excluding the impact of Cybertruck. The impact of pricing actions was largely offset by reductions in per unit costs and the recognition of revenue from automotive feature for certain vehicles in the US that previously did not have that functionality. Additionally, while we did experience higher costs due to the ramp of Model 3 and Fremont and disruptions in Berlin. These costs were largely offset by cost reduction initiatives. In fact, if we exclude Cybertruck and Fremont and Fremont Model 3 ramp costs, the revenue from auto park auto margins improved slightly. Currently, normalized model by cost per vehicle in Austin and Berlin are already very close to that of Fremont. Our ability to reduce costs without sacrificing on quality was due to the amazing efforts of the team in executing Tesla's relentless pursuit of efficiency across the business.
我们确实看到了季度收入下降。主要是因为某些宏观经济环境的季节性和埃隆之前提到的其他原因。汽车利润率从18.9%下降到18.5%，不包括Cybertruck的影响。定价行动的影响主要被单位成本的降低和以前没有该功能的美国某些车辆的汽车功能收入的认可所抵消。此外，由于Model 3和Fremont的推出以及柏林的中断，我们确实经历了更高的成本。但这些成本在很大程度上被成本削减举措所抵消。事实上，如果我们排除Cybertruck和Fremont以及Fremont Model 3推出的成本，汽车利润率略有改善。目前，奥斯汀和柏林的车辆成本归一化模型已经非常接近Fremont的水平。我们在不牺牲质量的情况下降低成本的能力归功于团队在执行特斯拉对整个业务高效率不懈追求的惊人努力。
We've also witnessed that as other OEMs are pulling back on their investments in EV, there is increasing appetite for credits. And that means a steady stream of revenue for us. Obviously, seeing others pull back from EV is not the future we want. We would prefer it the whole industry went all in. On the demand front, we have undertaken a variety of initiatives, including lowering the price of both the purchase and subscription options for FSD, launching extremely attractive leasing specials for the Model 3 in the US for $2.99 a month and offering attracting financing options in certain markets. We believe that our awareness activities paired with attractive financing will go a long way in expanding our reach and driving demand for our products. That energy business continues to make meaningful progress with margins reaching a record of 24.6%.
我们也看到，随着其他汽车制造商在电动汽车上的投资减少，对积分的需求正在增加。这意味着对我们来说有一条稳定的收入来源。显然，看到其他人对电动汽车的投资减少并不是我们想要的未来。我们更希望整个行业全面投入。在需求方面，我们采取了各种举措，包括降低FSD的购买和订阅价格，为美国Model 3推出每月2.99美元的特别租赁优惠，并在某些市场提供吸引人的融资选择。我们相信，我们的宣传活动和有吸引力的融资将在扩大我们的影响范围和推动产品需求方面产生积极作用。我们的能源业务不断取得重要进展，利润率达到了24.6%的纪录。
We expect the energy storage deployments for 2024 to grow at least 75% higher from 2023. And accordingly, this business will begin contributing significantly to our overall profitability. Note that there is a bit of lumpiness in our storage deployments due to a variety of factors that are outside of our control, so deployments may fluctuate quarter over quarter. On the operating expense front, we saw a sequential increase from our AI initiatives, continued investment in future projects, marketing and other activities. We had negative free cash flow of $2.5 billion in the first quarter. The primary driver of this was an increase in inventory from a mismatch between bills and deliveries, as discussed before. And our elevated spend on capex across various initiatives, including AI compute. We expect the inventory built to reverse in the second quarter and free cash flow to return to positive again.
我们预计到2024年，储能部署将比2023年增长至少75%。相应地，这项业务将开始对我们的整体盈利能力做出重大贡献。需要注意的是，由于一系列我们无法控制的因素，我们的储能部署有些波动，因此部署可能会季度间波动。在运营支出方面，由于人工智能项目的连续投资、未来项目的持续投入、市场营销和其他活动，我们看到了与上一季度相比的增长。在第一季度，我们的自由现金流为负25亿美元。这主要是由于库存增加，发票与交付之间出现不匹配，这已经在之前讨论过了。另外，我们在各种倡议项目上的资本支出也有所增加，包括AI计算。我们预计第二季度库存建立将会逆转，自由现金流将再次转正。
As we prepare the company for the next phase of growth, we had to make the heart, but necessary decision to reduce our head count by over 10%. The savings generated are expected to be well in excess of $1.1, excess of $1 billion on an annual London basis. We are also getting hyper-focus on capex efficiency and utilizing our install capacity in a more efficient manner. The savings from these initiatives, including our cost reductions, will help improve our overall profitability and ultimately enable us to increase the scale of our investments in AI. In conclusion, the future is extremely bright and the journey to get there while challenging will be extremely rewarding. Once again, I would like to thank the whole Tesla team for delivering great results and we can open it up to Keona. Thank you.
Okay. Let's start with the investor Keona name. The first question is, what is the status of 4680? What is the current output? Mars? Sure. 4680 production increased about 18-20% from Q4 reaching greater than 1K a week for cyber truck, which is about 7 gigawatt hours per year as we posted on X. We expect to stay ahead of the cyber truck ramp with the cell production throughout Q2 as we ramp the third of four lines in phase one while maintaining multiple weeks of cell inventory to make sure we're ahead of the ramp. Because we're ramping, colleagues continue to drop rapidly week over week, driven by yield improvements throughout the lines, and production volume increases. So our goal and we expect to do this is to beat supplier costs of nickel-based cells spending into here. Thank you.
随着我们为公司的下一个增长阶段做准备，我们不得不做出艰难但必要的决定，将我们的员工人数减少超过10%。预计产生的节省将远远超过每年11亿美元。我们还在极力提高资本支出效率，并更有效地利用我们的安装能力。这些举措带来的节省，包括成本降低，将有助于提高我们的整体盈利能力，最终使我们能够增加对人工智能的投资规模。总的来说，未来是非常光明的，虽然前路充满挑战，但走下去将是非常有价值的。再次，我要感谢整个特斯拉团队取得了出色的成绩，现在我们接下来听听Keona的发言。谢谢。
好的。让我们从投资者Keona的名字开始。第一个问题是，4680的状态如何？目前的产量是多少？马斯？当然。4680的产量从第四季度增长了大约18-20%，达到每周超过1K的水平用于Cyber Truck，这相当于每年7吉瓦时，正如我们在X上发布的。我们预计在Q2期间保持超前于Cyber Truck的增长，通过在第一阶段的四条生产线中逐步提高电池产量，同时保持数周的电池库存，以确保我们能够抓住增长的机会。由于我们正在增产，同事们继续快速下降，每周都在下降，这得益于生产线上的良率改善和产量增加。因此，我们的目标，我们也预计会做到的，是击败镍基电池的供应商成本。谢谢。
The second question is on optimus. So what is the current status of optimus? Are they currently performing any factory tasks? When do you expect to start mass production? We are able to do simple factory tasks, or at least I should say factory tasks in the lab. The, in terms of actually, we do think we will have optimus in limited production in the factory, in the actual factory itself, doing useful tasks before the end of this year. And then I think we may be able to sell it externally by the end of next year. These are just gases. As I've said before, I think optimus will be more valuable than everything else combined. Because if you've got a sentient humanoid robot that is able to navigate reality and do tasks at request, there is no meaningful limit to the size of the economy. So that's what's going to happen. And I think Tesla is best positioned of any humanoid robot maker to be able to reach volume production with efficient inference on the robot itself. I mean, this perhaps is a point that is worth emphasizing. Tesla's inference, AI inference efficiency is vastly better than anyone, any other company. There's no company even close to the inference efficiency of Tesla. We've had to do that because we've constrained by the inference hardware in the car. We'd never choice. But that will pay dividends in many ways. Thank you.
第二个问题是关于Optimus。那么Optimus目前的状态如何？他们目前是否在执行任何工厂任务？您预计何时开始大规模生产？我们能够做简单的工厂任务，或者至少我应该说是在实验室里的工厂任务。说到实际情况，我们确实认为我们将在这个工厂里有极限生产的Optimus，能够在今年年底之前执行有用的任务。然后我认为我们可能能够在明年年底之前将其外部销售。这些都只是臆想。正如我之前所说，我认为Optimus将比所有其他东西的价值加在一起还要更有价值。因为如果您拥有一个能够在现实中导航并根据要求执行任务的有意识人形机器人，那么经济的规模将没有实质性的限制。这就是将会发生的事情。我认为特斯拉是所有人形机器人制造商中最有可能实现规模生产并能够在机器人本身上进行高效推理的企业。我认为这可能值得强调。特斯拉的推理、人工智能效率远远超过任何其他公司。没有任何公司能够与特斯拉的推理效率相提并论。我们不得不这样做，因为我们受到汽车中推理硬件的限制。但这将在很多方面带来回报。谢谢。
The third question is, what is the first current assessment of the pathway towards regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD in the US? And how should we think about the appropriate safety threshold compared to human drivers? Sure, I can start. There are a handful of states that already have adopted autonomous vehicle laws. These states are paving the way for operations. Well, the data for such operations guides a broader adoption of driverless vehicles, I think a show can talk a little bit about our safety methodology, but expect that these states and the work ongoing, as well as the data that we're providing, will pave a way for a broad-based regulatory approval. In the US, at least in other countries, as well. Yeah. It's actually been pretty helpful that other autonomous car companies have been cutting a path through the regulatory jungle. But that's actually quite helpful. And they have obviously been operating in the temperatures go for a while. I think they got approval for City of LA. So these approvals are happening rapidly. I think if you've got at scale, it's a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has, let's say, half the accident rate of a human-driven car.
第三个问题是，在美国对无监督FSD获得监管批准的途径的第一个当前评估是什么？以及与人类驾驶员相比，我们应该如何考虑适当的安全阈值？当然，我可以开始。已经有几个州采纳了自动驾驶汽车法律。这些州正在为运营铺平道路。嗯，这些运营的数据指导着无人驾驶车辆的更广泛采用，我觉得可以谈一谈我们的安全方法论，但我期望这些州和正在进行的工作，以及我们提供的数据，将为广泛的监管批准铺平道路。在美国，至少在其他国家也是如此。是的。其他自动汽车公司一直在为监管的艰难中开辟道路其实相当有帮助。他们很明显已经在这个领域运作了一段时间。我觉得他们获得了洛杉矶市的批准。因此，这些批准正在迅速发生。我认为，如果规模达到了，有一个统计显著的数据量，可以明确显示无人驾驶汽车的事故率仅为人类驾驶汽车的一半。
I think that's difficult to ignore because at that point, you're stopping autonomy means killing people. So I actually do not think that there will be significant regulatory barriers provided there's conclusive data that the autonomous car is safer than a human-driven car. And in my view, this would be much like elevators. Elevators used to be operated by a guy with a relay switch. But sometimes a guy would get tired or drunk or just make a mistake and share somebody in half between floors. So now we just get an elevator and press button. We don't think about it. In fact, it's kind of weird if somebody is standing there with a relay switch. That'll be how cars work. You just summon a car using your phone. You get in. It takes you to your destination. You get out. You don't even think about it. You don't even think about it. Just like an elevator. It takes you to your floor. That's it. Think about how the elevator is working or anything like that.
我认为很难忽视这一点，因为在那时，阻止自主意味着杀人。所以我实际上认为，只要有确凿数据表明自动驾驶汽车比人驾驶汽车更安全，就不会有重大的监管障碍。在我看来，这将类似于电梯。电梯过去是由一个操作员通过继电器开关操作的。但有时候操作员会感到疲倦、喝酒或者犯错误，导致电梯在楼层间将人劈成两半。现在我们只需要按一下按钮就可以乘坐电梯。我们不再想这些问题。事实上，如果有人拿着继电器开关站在那里，会感觉有点奇怪。汽车也将如此运作。你只需要用手机召唤一辆车。上车后，它会带你到目的地。你下车。你甚至不需要思考这些。就像一个电梯。它会带你到楼层。只需要让电梯工作就好了。不需要考虑它是如何工作的或者其他事情。
And something I should clarify is that Tesla will be operating the fleet. So you can think of how Tesla, I think it has an un-resum combination of Airbnb and Uber, meaning that there will be some number of cars that Tesla owns itself and operates in the fleet. There'll be some number of cars and then there'll be a bunch of cars where they're owned by the end user. But that end user can out or subtract their car to the fleet whenever they want. And they can decide if they want to only let the car be used by friends and family or only by five-star users or by anyone. At any time they could have the car come back to them and be exclusively theirs, like an Airbnb. You could rent out your guest room or not anytime you want. So as our fleet grows, we have 9 million cars going to eventually 10s of millions of cars worldwide. With a constant feedback loop, every time something goes wrong, that gets added to the training data and you get this training flywheel happening in the same way that Google Search has the flywheel. It's very difficult to compete with Google because people are constantly doing searches and clicking and Google's getting that feedback loop. It's the same with with Tesla. But at a scale that is maybe difficult to comprehend, but ultimately it would be 10s I think there's also some potential here for an AWS element down the road where if we've got very powerful inference, because we've got a hardware 3 in the cars, but now all cars are being made with hardware 4. 5 is pretty much designed and should be in cars, hopefully towards the end of the next year.
有一点我需要澄清的是，特斯拉将会运营这个车队。所以你可以把特斯拉想象成为Airbnb和Uber的一个独特组合，意味着特斯拉将拥有并运营一定数量的车辆在车队中。会有特斯拉自己拥有和运营的车辆，还会有一些车辆是由最终用户拥有的。但是这些最终用户可以随时把他们的车添加或移出车队。他们可以决定是否只让朋友和家人使用车辆，或者只允许五星用户或任何人使用。他们可以随时让车返回给他们，让车辆成为他们自己的专有资产，就像Airbnb一样。你可以随时出租你的客房或者不出租。随着我们车队的增长，我们将全球拥有9000万辆车，最终可能会增长到数千万辆车。随着持续的反馈循环，每次出现问题时，都会被加入到训练数据中，你会得到这种训练的正循环，就像谷歌搜索有正循环一样。和谷歌竞争非常困难，因为人们不断进行搜索并点击，而谷歌获得了这种反馈循环。特斯拉也是一样。但是这种规模也许难以理解，但最终会拥有数千万辆车。我认为未来也存在一些AWS元素的潜力，因为我们拥有非常强大的推理能力，因为我们在车辆中有硬件3，但现在所有的车辆都正在用硬件4制造。硬件5已经基本设计完成，并有望在明年年底前应用在车辆上。
And there's a potential to run when the car is not moving to actually run distributed inference. So kind of like AWS, but distributed inference. It takes a lot of computers to train an AI model, but many orders of magnitude less compute to run it. So if you can imagine a future path where there's a fleet of 100 million Teslas and on average they've got like maybe a kilowatt of inference compute that's 100 gigawatts of inference compute distributed all around the world. It's pretty hard to put together 100 gigawatts of AI compute. And even in an autonomous future where the car is path used instead of being used 10 hours a week is used 50 hours a week. That still leaves over 100 hours a week where the car inference computer could be doing something else. And it seems like it will be a waste not to use it.
当汽车不在运动时，有可能进行分布式推断运行。就像AWS一样，但是是分布式推断。训练一个AI模型需要大量的计算机，但是运行它所需的计算量要少得多。因此，想象一下未来可能是这样的情景：全球有一支拥有1亿辆特斯拉汽车的车队，平均每辆车可能有大约1千瓦的推断计算能力，这样就在全球分布了大约100吉瓦的推断计算能力。将100吉瓦的AI计算能力放在一起是非常困难的。即使在自动驾驶未来，汽车的使用率提高到每周50个小时，仍然有超过100小时的时间，汽车推断计算机可以用来做其他事情。看起来不使用它会是一种浪费。
Actually, do you want to try on the process in safety? Yeah, we are with multiple tier stop validating the safety. For like in any given week between hundreds of neural networks that can produce, you know, different trajectories for how to drive the car, they pay them through the millions of clips that we have already collected from our users and our own QA. Those are like critical events, you know, like someone jumping out in front or like other critical events that we have gathered database over many, many years. And we deeply through all of them to make sure that we are net improving safety. And then of it, we have simulation systems that also try to recreate this and test this in close to fashion. Once all of this is evaluated, we give it to our own QA records. We have hundreds of them in different cities in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, New York, a lot of different locations.
实际上，你想尝试在安全过程中吗？是的，我们有多层验证安全性的停止。例如，在任何给定的一周内，数百个神经网络可以生成不同的驾驶车辆的轨迹，通过我们已经收集到的数百万个用户和我们自己的QA提供的视频片段。这些都是关键事件，比如有人突然跳出来，或者我们多年来收集的其他关键事件。我们深入研究所有这些，以确保我们在不断提高安全性。此外，我们还有仿真系统来尝试重新创建和测试这些情况。一旦所有这些都经过评估，我们将其交给我们自己的QA员工。我们在三藩市、洛杉矶、奥斯汀、纽约等许多不同地点都有数百名QA员工。
They are also driving this collecting real world miles and we have an estimate of what are the critical events. Are they net improvement compared to the previous weeks bills? And once we have confidence that the bill is a net improvement, then we start shipping to early users like 2000 employees initially that they would like get the bill, they will give feedback on like if it's an improvement or they're noting some new issues that we did not capture in our own QA process. And only after all of this is validated, then we go to external customers. And even when we go external, we have like live dashboards of monitoring every critical event that's happening in the fleet, sorted by the criticality of it. So we are having a constant pulse on the bill's quality and the safety improvement along the way.
他们还利用现实世界里的里程数据驱动这一收集，并且我们对关键事件有初步估计。与上几周的账单相比，它们是否有净改善？一旦我们相信账单是有净改进的，我们就会开始向初期用户发货，比如最初2000名员工，他们希望得到账单，他们将提供反馈，表明是否有改进或者指出我们自己的质量保证流程中未能发现的新问题。只有在所有这些都经过验证后，我们才会面向外部客户。即使面向外部客户时，我们也会拥有实时的监控仪表板，监控整个车队中正在发生的每个关键事件，按照紧急程度进行排序。因此，我们可以持续不断地监控账单的质量和安全改进。
And then any failures like you don't want to get the data back added to the training and that improves the model in the next cycle. So we have this like constant feedback loop of issues, fixes, evaluations, and then it rinse and repeat. And especially with the new virtual architecture, all of this is automatically improving without requiring much engineering interventions in the sense that people, engineers don't have to be creative in like how they code the algorithms. It's mostly learning on its own based on data. So you see that, okay, we failure or like this is how a person chooses how you drive this intersection or something like that. They get the data back. We add it to the new network and it learns from that training that automatically instead of some engineers saying that, oh, here you must rotate the steering wheel by the smart engine or something like that.
然后，任何类似于您不希望获取数据的失败都会被添加到训练中，并在下一轮中改进模型。因此，我们有这样一个持续的反馈循环，包括问题、修复、评估，然后重复。特别是在新的虚拟架构中，所有这些都在不需要太多工程干预的情况下自动改进，这意味着人们、工程师不必在如何编写算法方面发挥创造力。它主要是根据数据自行学习的。因此，你会发现，好吧，我们失败了，或者像一个人选择如何驾驶交叉口之类的情况。他们拿到了数据。我们将其添加到新网络中，并从这次培训中学习，而不是有些工程师说“嗯，你必须由智能引擎旋转方向盘”之类的话。
There's no hardy first ambitions. It's everything is a neural network. It's very soft. It's probabilistic. And so it's probably a problem distribution based on the new data that it's getting. Yeah. And we do have some insight into how good the things will be and like let's say three or four months because we have advanced models that are former capable than what is in the car but have some issues with them that we need to fix. So they're like there'll be a step change improvement in the capabilities of the car but it'll have some quirks that need to be addressed in order to release it. As I was saying, we have to be very careful in what we release the fleet or to customers in general.
没有坚实的第一志向。一切都是神经网络。它非常柔软。它是概率性的。因此，它可能是基于新数据的问题分布。是的。我们对事情的表现有一些见解，比如说三到四个月，因为我们有先进的模型，比车上的更有能力，但是也有一些问题需要解决。所以在车辆的能力上将会有一个巨大的改进，但是还有一些需要解决的问题才能发布。正如我之前所说的，我们必须非常谨慎地发布车队或者向客户发布。
So like we're looking to say 12.4 and 12.5 which are really could arguably even be version 13 and version 14 because it's pretty close to a total retrain of the neural nets in each case or substantially different. So we have good insight into where the models, how well the car will perform in say three or four months. I'm sorry, scaling in the air community. We're going to talk about model scaling in the model size a lot and then they have corresponding gains in performance but we have also figured out scaling loss and other access in addition to the model size scaling. You can also data scaling.
所以我们要说的是12.4和12.5，这两个版本实际上可以说是版本13和版本14，因为在每种情况下，这基本上都是对神经网络进行全面重新训练，或者说有很大不同。因此，我们可以很好地了解模型的表现，比如在三到四个月后汽车会表现得有多好。对不起，这里涉及到空中社区的扩展。我们要谈论模型扩展中的模型规模，然后会有相应的性能收益，但我们还发现了模型规模扩展以外的扩展损失和其他方面。另外，还有数据扩展。
You can increase the amount of data you use to train the neural network and that also gives similar gains and you can also scale up by training compute. You can train it for much longer and got more GPUs or more dojo notes and that also gives better performance and you can also have architecture scaling where you come with better architectures that for the same amount of compute produce better results. So a combination of model size scaling, data scaling, training compute scaling and the architecture scaling.
您可以增加用于训练神经网络的数据量，这也会带来类似的收益，并且您也可以通过训练计算来扩大规模。您可以训练更长时间，拥有更多的GPU或者dojo笔记，这也会带来更好的性能，而且您还可以进行架构缩放，使用更好的架构，在相同的计算量下产生更好的结果。因此，模型大小缩放、数据缩放、训练计算缩放和架构缩放的结合体会带来更好的效果。
We can basically extract like okay, if the country is scaling based on this ratio we can sort of predict future performance. Obviously it takes time to do the experiments because it takes few weeks to train. It takes few weeks to collect tens of millions of video clips and process all of them but you can estimate what is going to be the future progress based on the trends that we have seen in the past and they've generally helped through based on the past data. Okay, thank you very much.
我们基本上可以提取出，如果一个国家按照这个比例在扩展，我们可以预测将来的表现。显然，做这些实验需要时间，因为需要几个星期来训练。收集数千万个视频剪辑并处理所有这些剪辑也需要几周的时间，但你可以根据过去的趋势来估计未来的进展，它们通常会根据过去的数据有所帮助。好的，非常感谢。
Let's go to the next question which is can we get an official announcement of the timeline for the $25,000 vehicle? I think we, Elon mentioned it in the opening remarks but as you mentioned we're updating our future vehicle line up to accelerate the launch of our low-cost vehicles in a more cap, a sufficient way. That's our mission to get the most affordable cars to customers as fast as possible. These new vehicles we built on our existing lines and open capacity and that's a major shift to utilize all our capacity with marginal cap X before we go spend high cap X to do this.
让我们继续下一个问题，那就是我们能否得到25000美元的汽车发布时间表的官方公告？我记得，埃隆在开场白中提到了这个问题，但正如你提到的，我们正在更新未来的汽车产品线，以加快推出我们的低成本汽车的速度。我们的使命是尽快将最实惠的汽车带给客户。这些新车型将建立在我们现有的生产线和空余产能上，这是一个重大转变，将利用我们的全部产能来进行边际投资，而不是花费高额的资本支出来做这件事。
Yeah, we'll talk about this more and I'll just say so. I mean really the way to think of Tesla is almost entirely in terms of solving autonomy and being able to turn on that autonomy for a gigantic fleet. And I think it might be the biggest asset value appreciation in history when that thing happens, when you can do unsupervised, full self-driving. High-million cars? Yeah. A little less. As long as I'm going, it'll be 7 million cars. You know, in a year or so. And then 10 million and then, you know, eventually we're talking about 10 to millions of cars.
是的，我们将更深入讨论这个问题，我只想说一下。我的意思是，真的，想要理解特斯拉的方式几乎完全是关于解决自动驾驶，并且可以为一个巨大的车队启用自动驾驶。我认为当那一刻到来时，当您可以进行无人监督的完全自动驾驶时，这可能会是历史上最大的资产增值。百万辆汽车？是的。略少一点。只要我在这个位置，将会是700万辆汽车。您知道，在一年左右的时间里。然后是1000万辆，然后，您知道，最终我们会谈论数千万辆汽车。
I'm not eventually, it's like, the point of this decade, it's several times the money to cars. Thank you. The next question is, what is the progress of Cybertruck round? I can take that one too. I can take it one day a week, just a couple weeks ago. This happened in the first four to five months since we SOP late last year. Of course, volume production is what matters. That's what drives costs and so our costs are dropping. But the ramp still faces like a lot of challenges with so many new technologies, some supplier limitations, et cetera, and will continue to ramp this year just focusing on cost efficiency and quality. Okay. Thank you.
我还没有最终确定，就像这个十年的重点一样，汽车的销售额是几倍于以前的。谢谢。下一个问题是，Cybertruck的进展如何？我也可以回答这个问题。我可以每周花一天的时间处理这个问题，就在几周前。自去年底我们刚刚开始量产以来的头四到五个月发生了这件事。当然，量产是最重要的。这推动了成本降低。但是产能升级仍然面临许多挑战，包括许多新技术、一些供应商限制等等，并且今年将继续提升，重点是成本效益和质量。好的，谢谢。
The next question, have any of the legacy automakers contacted Tesla about possibly licensing FSD in the future? We're in conversations with one major or to make a regarding licensing FSD. Thank you. The next question is about the robot taxi and Vail Elon already talked about that. So we'll have to wait till August. The following question is about the next generation vehicle. We already talked about that. So let's go to the semi. What is the timeline for scaling semi? I think it's awesome.
接下来的问题是，是否有任何传统汽车制造商已经联系特斯拉，可能在未来授权FSD技术？我们正在与一家主要合作伙伴进行关于授权FSD技术的谈话。谢谢。接下来的问题是关于机器人出租车和Vail Elon已经谈到过了。所以我们要等到八月份。接下来的问题是关于下一代汽车。我们已经讨论过了，请转向半挂车。半挂车的扩展计划是什么时间表？我认为这很棒。
So we're finalizing the engineering of the semi to enable a super cost-effective high-volume production with our learnings from our fleet and pilot fleet and Pepsi's fleet, which we're expanding this year marginally. In parallel, as we showed in the shareholders' deck, we have started construction on the factory in Reno. Our first vehicles are planned for late 2025 with external customers starting in 2026. Couple more questions. So our favorites. Can we make FSD transfer permanent until FSD is fully delivered with level five? No. Okay. Next question. What is the getting the production ramp at Lathrop?
因此，我们正在完成半挂车的工程设计，以便根据我们从自己的车队、试验车队和百事公司车队中学到的知识，实现超高成本效益的大规模生产，今年我们会将这些车队略微扩大。与此同时，正如我们在股东大会上展示的那样，我们已经开始在里诺建厂。我们计划于2025年底推出首批车辆，外部客户将于2026年开始使用。还有几个问题。首先是我们最关心的问题。在FSD完全交付之前，我们能否将FSD转让变为永久性质，并实现五级自动驾驶？不行。好的，下一个问题。拉瑟普生产规模增长的进度如何？
Where do you see the megabec run rate at the end of the year? Mike? Yeah. Yeah, Lathrop is ramping as planned. We have our second GA line allowing us to increase our exit rate from 20 gigawatt hours per year to at the start of this year to 40 gigawatt hours per year by the end of the year. That line's commissioned. There's really nothing limiting the ramp. So it's, you know, given the longer sales cycles for these large projects, we typically have order visibility 12 to 24 months prior to ship date.
Mike，你认为年底时兆赫运行速率会达到哪个水平？是的。是的，拉斯罗普正在按计划加速。我们已经启动了第二个GA生产线，使我们能够将我们的年产量从每年20千兆瓦时增加到年底时的40千兆瓦时。该生产线已投入运营。没有任何限制生产速度的因素。鉴于这些大型项目的销售周期较长，通常我们在发货日期前12至24个月就已经有订单可见度。
So we're able to plan, to build plan several quarters in advance. So this allows us to ramp the factory to align with the business and order growth. Lastly, we'd like to thank our customers globally for their trust and Tesla as a partner for these incredible projects. Okay. Thank you very much. Let's go to Annalise questions. The first question comes from Tony Sakunagi from Bernstein. Tony, please go ahead and unmute. Thank you for taking the question. I was just wondering if you could elaborate a little bit more on kind of the new vehicles that you talked about today. Are these like tweaks on existing models, giving that they're going to be running on the same lines or these like new models? And how should we think about them, you know, in the context of like the Model 3 Highland update?
因此，我们能够提前几个季度规划和建立计划。这使我们能够根据业务和订单增长情况加速工厂的生产。最后，我们要感谢全球客户对我们的信任，感谢特斯拉作为这些令人难以置信的项目的合作伙伴。好的。非常感谢。让我们来回答Annalise的问题。第一个问题来自伯恩斯坦的Tony Sakunagi。Tony，请继续发言。感谢您提问。我想知道您是否可以详细介绍一下您今天谈到的新车型。这些是对现有车型的微调，因为它们将在同一生产线上生产，还是说这些是全新车型？我们应该如何在Model 3 Highland升级的背景下考虑它们呢？
What will these models be like relative to that? And given the quick timeframe, you know, Model 3 Highland is required a lot of work and a lot of retooling. Maybe you can help put that all in context. Thank you. And I have a follow up, please. I think we've said all we well on that front. So what's your follow up? It's a more personal one for you, Elon, which is that you're leading many important companies right now. Maybe you can just talk about where your heart is at in terms of your interests and to expect to lessen your involvement with Tesla at any point over the next three years. Well, as a constitutional majority of my work time and I work pretty much every day of the week, it's for me to take a study off and you're not after noon.
相对于这些模型，它们会是什么样子？考虑到时间紧迫，你知道，Highland型号需要大量工作和大量改装。也许你可以帮忙把所有这些放在上下文中。谢谢。我还有个追问。我想我们已经在那方面说得很好了。那你的追问是什么呢？这是一个更个人的问题，埃隆，你现在领导了许多重要的公司。也许你可以谈谈你的兴趣所在，以及在未来三年内是否会减少对特斯拉的参与。嗯，作为我工作时间的绝大部分，我几乎每天工作，所以很难让我放松一下，甚至在下午也不例外。
So I can make sure Tesla is quite prosperous and it is like it is prosperous and it will be very much so in the future. Okay, thank you. Let's go to Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley. Adam, please go ahead and unmute. Okay, great. Hey, Elon, so you and your team on volume expect a 2020 growth rate notably lower than that achieved in 2023. But what's your team's degree of confidence on growth above 0% or in other words, does that statement leave room for potentially lower sales year on year?
所以我可以确保特斯拉相当繁荣，就像它目前繁荣一样，并且将来也会非常繁荣。好的，谢谢。我们来听听来自摩根士丹利的亚当·乔纳斯。亚当，请继续发言。好的，非常感谢。嘿，埃隆，你和你的团队预计2020年的增长速度明显低于2023年的增长速度。但是你的团队对增长超过0%的信心有多大？换句话说，这种说法是否留有可能年销量下降的空间？
No, I think we'll have higher sales this year than last year. Okay. My follow up, Elon, on future product, if you had nailed execution, assuming that you nail execution on your next gen, cheaper vehicles, more aggressive gigacastings, I don't want to say one piece, but getting closer to one piece, structural pack, unboxed, three-mile range, $25,000 price point, putting aside Robotaxi, those features unique to you.
不，我认为今年的销售额会比去年更高。好的。我接下来想问一下埃隆，关于未来产品，如果你成功实施了，假设你在下一代更便宜的车辆、更具侵略性的超级铸造、更靠近一体式结构包装、无箱体、三英里续航里程、25,000美元价格点上取得成功，撇开Robotaxi不谈，这些特性是你独有的。
How long would it take your best Chinese competitors to copy a cheaper and better vehicle that you could offer a couple of years from now? How long would it take your best Chinese competitors to copy that? Thanks. I mean, I don't know what our competitors could do except we've done relatively better than they have. If you look at the drop in our competitors in China sales versus our drop in sales, our drop is less than theirs. So we're doing well.
你最优秀的中国竞争对手要花多长时间才能复制一款更便宜、更好的车辆，而您可能在未来几年内提供？他们要多长时间才能复制？谢谢。我的意思是，除非我们做得比他们好，否则我不知道我们的竞争对手能做些什么。如果你看一下我们在中国销售量的下降与他们的下降相比，你会发现我们的下降比他们的少。所以我们做得很好。
But I think, you know, Kathy would set it best, like, really, we should be thought of as an AI robotics company. If your value tells us just like an order company, you would just have to fundamentally, is just the wrong framework. It will count to be. If you ask the wrong question, then the right answer isn't possible. So I mean, if somebody doesn't believe tells us it's going to solve autonomy, I think they should not be an investor in the company. That is, but we will, and we are. And then you have a car that goes from 10 hours a week, like an hour and a half a day to probably 50.
但我认为，你知道，凯西可能表达得更好，实际上，我们应该被看作是一家人工智能机器人公司。如果你的价值观认为我们只是一个订单公司，那基本上是错误的框架。这将是算错了。如果你问错了问题，那么正确的答案就不可能实现。所以我的意思是，如果有人不相信我们将解决自主性问题，我认为他们不应该成为公司的投资者。不过，我们将会做到，我们正在做到。然后你就会看到汽车从每周10小时，像每天一个半小时，变成可能是50小时。
But it costs the same. I think that's the key thing to remember, like, especially if you look at FSD supervised, if you didn't believe in autonomy, they should give you a review that this is coming. It's actually getting better day by day. Yeah, if you've not tried the FSD, 4.3, and like I said, 4.4 is going to be significantly better and 4.5 even better than that. And we have a visibility into those things.
但价格都是一样的。我认为这是需要记住的关键事情，特别是当你看到FSD受监督时，如果你不相信自主性，他们应该让你知道这一点。事实上，它每天都在变得更好。如果你还没有尝试过FSD 4.3，就像我说的，4.4会显著更好，4.5会比那更好。我们对这些事情有了更清晰的了解。
Then you really don't understand what's going on. It's not possible. Yeah, and that's why we can't just look at just as a car company because a car company would just have a car. But here we have more than a car company because the cars can be autonomous. And like I said, it's happening. Yeah, this is all an addition to Tesla, Sorkin. The oral AI community is just increasing, like, improving rapidly. Yeah, yeah, and we're putting the actual auto in automobile.
那你真的不明白发生了什么。这是不可能的。是的，这就是为什么我们不能简单地把它看做是一个汽车公司，因为一个汽车公司只会生产汽车。但在这里，我们不只是一个汽车公司，因为这些汽车可以实现自主驾驶。就像我说的，这一切正在发生。是的，这都是在为特斯拉增添价值。口头人工智能社区正在快速增长、改善中。是的，我们正在把“车”真正带入“汽车”中。
So, you know, we're like, well, sort of like, tell us about future horse carriages you're making. Well, actually, it doesn't need a horse. That's the whole point. That's really the whole point. OK, thank you. The next question comes from Alex Potter from Piper Sandler. Alex, please go ahead and unmute. Great. Thanks. Yeah, so couldn't agree more. The thesis hinges completely on AI, the future of AI, also of driving, you know, neural net training, all of these things. In that context, Elon, you've spoken about your desire to obtain 25% voting control of the company. And I understand completely why that would be. So I'm not necessarily asking about that. I'm asking if you've come up with any mechanism by which you can ensure that you'll obtain that level of voting control because if not, then the core part of the thesis could potentially be at risk. So any additional commentary you might have on that topic? Well, I think no matter what, even if I cannot buy aliens tomorrow, Tesla will solve autonomy, maybe a little slower, but it would solve autonomy for vehicles at least. I don't know if it would win it on with respect to optimists or with respect to future products, but it would, that there's not momentum for Tesla to solve autonomy, even if I disappeared for vehicles. Now, this is a whole range of things we can do in the future beyond that. I'd be more reticent with respect to optimists. If we have a super sentient humanoid robot that can follow indoors and that you can't escape, you know, to a terminator level risk, then yeah, I'd be uncomfortable with, you know, if there's not some meaningful level of influence over how that is deployed. And you know, if there's, you know, shareholders have an opportunity to ratify or re-ratify the sort of competition, I guess I can't say that. But that is a fact, they have an opportunity.
所以，你知道，我们就像是，嗯，有点像，告诉我们你正在制造的未来马车。实际上，它不需要马。这就是整个重点。这确实是整个重点。好的，谢谢。下一个问题来自Piper Sandler的Alex Potter。Alex，请继续发言。好的，谢谢。是的，我完全同意。这个论点完全取决于人工智能，人工智能的未来，也取决于驾驶，你知道，神经网络训练，所有这些方面。在这种情况下，埃隆，你曾经谈到过你想获得公司25%的投票控制权的愿望。我完全理解为什么你要这样做。所以我并不是在问那个。我想知道你是否想出了任何机制来确保你获得那种投票控制水平，因为如果没有，那么这个论点的核心部分可能会受到风险。你对这个话题是否有任何额外的评论？嗯，我认为无论如何，即使我明天不能买到外星人，特斯拉都将解决自主性问题，可能会慢一点，但至少会为车辆解决自主性问题。我不确定它是否会在乐观主义者或未来产品方面取得胜利，但是特斯拉会解决自主性问题，即使我为车辆消失了。现在，在未来我们可以做的事情有很多。我对乐观主义者比较谨慎。如果我们有一个超级有感知能力的人形机器人，在室内跟踪你，你无法逃脱，达到终结者级别的风险，那么是的，我很担心，如果对如何部署这种技术没有一定程度的影响。你知道，如果股东有机会对这种竞争进行批准或重新批准，我想我不能说那。但这是事实，他们有机会。
Okay. Very good. And yeah, we'll see. If the company generates a lot of positive cash flow, we get up to see buyback shares. All right, that's actually all very helpful context. Thank you. Maybe one final question, I'll pass it on. Op-ex reductions, thank you for quantifying the impact there. I'd be interested also in potentially more qualitative discussion of what the implications are for these headcount reductions. What are the types of activities that you're presumably sacrificing as a result of parting ways with these folks? Thanks very much. So, you know, like we said, we've done these headcount reductions across the board. And you know, as companies grow over time, you know, there are certain redundancies, there's some duplication of efforts which happens in certain areas. So you need to go back and look at where all these pockets are, get rid of it. So we're basically going through that exercise wherein we're like, hey, how do we set this company right for the next phase of growth? And the way to think about it is, you know, any tree which grows, it needs pruning. This is the pruning exercise which we went through. And at the end of it, we'll be much stronger and much more resilient to deal with the future because the future is really bright. Like I said in my remarks, we just have to get through this period and get there. Yeah, we're not giving up anything that is significant that I'm aware of.
好的。非常好。是的，我们会看到的。如果公司产生了大量的正现金流，我们将考虑回购股票。好的，这些都是非常有帮助的背景信息。谢谢。也许最后一个问题，我会转交给下一个人。关于运营支出的削减，谢谢你量化了影响。我也对可能更多质性讨论感兴趣，关于这些员工减少的影响。由于与这些人分手，你们可能牺牲了哪些活动类型呢？非常感谢。所以，你知道，就像我们所说的，我们在各个领域都进行了减员。随着公司随着时间的增长，肯定会出现一些冗余，有些工作在某些领域存在重复。所以你需要回过头去看看到底哪些地方有这些问题，然后解决。所以我们基本上正在进行这种练习，在这个练习中我们在思考，嘿，我们如何让公司为下一阶段的增长做好准备？想想任何生长的树，都需要修剪。这就是我们经历的修剪练习。最终，我们将变得更加强大，更加有韧性，能够应对未来，因为未来真的很美好。就像我在我的讲话中所说的，我们只需要度过这个时期，然后到达那里就可以了。是的，据我所知，我们没有放弃任何重要的东西。
So we've had a long period of prosperity from 2019 to now. And you know, so if a company sort of organizationally is 5% wrong per year, you know, that accumulates to 25, 30% of inefficiency. We've made some corrections along the way, but it is time to reorganize the company for the next phase of growth. And you really need to reorganize it just like a human when we start off with one cell and come as I go and blast assist and you start growing arms and legs and briefly you have a tail. And so. But you shut the tail. Shut the tail, hopefully. And then your baby, you know, you have to be different. The organism, a company is kind of like a creature growing. And if you don't reorganize it for different phases of growth, it will fail. You can't have the same organizational structure if you're, you know, 10 cells versus 100 versus a million versus a billion versus a trillion. You know, where humans are like around 35 trillion cells, it doesn't feel like it feels like, you know, like one person, but you know, you're basically a walking cell colony of roughly 35 trillion depending on your body mass. And about three times that number in bacteria. So anyway, you've got to reorganize the company for a new phase of growth or it will fail to achieve that growth. Thank you. Let's go to Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs.
所以从2019年到现在，我们经历了一个漫长的繁荣时期。你知道，如果一个公司在组织上每年有5%的错误，那么这将积累成25%到30%的低效率。我们已经在这段时间里做了一些修正，但现在是时候重新组织公司，迎接下一个增长阶段。就像一个人类从一个细胞开始，经历胚胎阶段，长出手脚，最终长出尾巴。但是尾巴会消失，希望如此。然后你是个婴儿，你必须变得不同。一个公司就像是一个生物在成长。如果不为不同的增长阶段重新组织它，就会失败。你不能在拥有10个细胞、100个、100万个、10亿个、1万亿个细胞的时候保持同样的组织结构。人类拥有大约35万亿个细胞，虽然感觉不出来，感觉只是一个人，但事实上你基本上是一个大约有35万亿个细胞的行走细胞群体，取决于你的体重。此外，体内还有大约三倍细胞数量的细菌。总之，你必须为公司新的增长阶段重新组织，否则将无法实现增长。谢谢。接下来请听高盛的马克·德兰尼。
Mark, please go ahead and unmute. Yes, good afternoon. Thanks very much for taking the question. The company had previously characterized potential FSD licensing discussions as in the early phase and some OEMs had not really been believing in it. Can you elaborate on how much the licensing business opportunity you mentioned today has progressed? And is there anything Tesla needs to achieve with the technology in terms of product milestones in order to be successful at reaching a licensing agreement in your view?
马克，请继续解除静音。是的，下午好。非常感谢您提问。公司之前曾将潜在的FSD许可讨论描述为处于早期阶段，一些原始设备制造商并没有真正相信这一点。您能详细说明一下您今天提到的许可业务机会的进展情况吗？在您看来，特斯拉需要在技术方面取得哪些产品里程碑才能成功达成许可协议？
But I think we just need to, it just needs to be obvious that our approach is the right approach. And I think it is, I think we're now with 12.3, if you just have the car drive you around, it is obvious that our solution with a relatively low cost inference computer and standard cameras can achieve self-driving. No LiDARs, no radar, no ultrasonic, nothing. No having integration work for vehicle manufacturers. Yeah, so really just be a case of having them use the same cameras and inference computer and licensing our software. And it's once it becomes obvious that if you don't have this in a car, nobody wants your car.
但我认为我们只需要让人们明显地看到我们的方法是正确的。我认为现在是这样的，如果你让汽车自动驾驶，很明显我们的解决方案只需使用低成本推断计算机和标准摄像头就可以实现自动驾驶。没有激光雷达、雷达、超声波等设备。也不需要为车辆制造商进行集成工作。是的，真的只是让他们使用相同的摄像头和推断计算机，并许可我们的软件。一旦人们明显地发现，如果你的车没有这样的设备，那么没有人会想要你的车。
Yeah, it's like it's a smart car. I mean, I just remember like the fact that Nokia was King of the Hill, yeah, and self-driving and self-driving and I sort of come out with a smartphone that was basically a brick with limited functionality. And then the iPhone and Android, if people sold it not to understand that all the phones are going to be that way. There's not going to be any flip phones, if they'll be in each product or home phones. Yeah, not even exactly. It was the last time you saw a home phone. I've no idea. Yeah, in a hotel, sometimes in a hotel. Yeah, the hotels have them.
是的，就好像是一台智能汽车一样。我的意思是，我记得诺基亚曾经是山上的王者，是的，无人驾驶和自动驾驶，然后他们推出了一款基本上只是一个功能有限的砖头的智能手机。然后iPhone和Android，如果人们卖掉了他们不理解所有的手机会是那样。不会有任何翻盖手机，只会有各种产品或家用电话。是的，甚至没准确的。上一次你看到家用电话是什么时候？我完全不知道。是的，在酒店里，有时候在酒店里。是的，酒店里有。
So the people don't understand all cars will need to be smart cars or you will not sell. This car will not, nobody will buy it. Once that becomes obvious, I think licensing becomes not optional. It becomes a method of survival. Yeah, it's licensed at order to buy your car. I mean, one other thing which I'll add is in the conversations that you have had with some of these OEMs. I just want to also point out that they take a lot of time in the product lifecycle. Yeah. They're talking about years before they will put it in their product. We might have a licensing deal earlier than that, but it takes a while. So this is where the big difference between us and them is.
因此，人们需要明白所有的汽车都需要智能汽车，否则就无法销售。这种汽车不会卖得出去，没有人会购买它。一旦这一点变得明显，我认为许可证将不再是可选项，而是一种生存的手段。是的，购买您的汽车需要许可证。我想补充的另一件事是，在您与一些原始设备制造商(OEMs)的对话中，他们在产品生命周期方面花费了很多时间。是的，他们提前数年才会把它放入他们的产品中。也许我们会在此之前达成许可协议，但这需要一段时间。这就是我们之间的最大区别。
Yeah, I mean, really, a deal sign now would result in it being in a car in probably three years. Yeah, that's like lightning. So that's being eager. Oh, yeah. So I would be surprised if we do sign a deal. I think we're good chance we do sign a deal this year. Maybe more than one. But yeah, it would be probably three years before it's integrated with a car, even though all you need is cameras and our first computer. So it's like not a massive design change.
是的，我是说，真的，现在签订协议可能会导致三年后它就能在车里了。是的，就像闪电一样。所以这就是渴望。哦，是的。所以如果我们真的签署了协议，我会感到惊讶。我认为我们有很大的机会在今年签署协议。也许会不止一个。但是，即使只需要摄像头和我们的第一台电脑，将其集成到汽车中可能需要大约三年时间。所以这并不是一次巨大的设计改变。
Yeah. And again, just to clarify, it's not the work which we have to do. It's the work which they have to do with the time. Mark, very helpful. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, very helpful. Thank you. My follow up was to better understand Tesla's approach to pricing going forward. Previously, the company had said that the price reductions were driving a criminal demand with how affordable the cars have become, especially for vehicles that have access to their rate credits and some of the leasing offers that Tesla has in place. You still see meaningful incremental price reductions as making sense from here for the existing products. And can the company immediately lower prices from here and also stay free cash or positive on an annual basis with the current products? Thanks.
是的。再次澄清一下，我们不是要做的工作，而是他们必须在时间内完成的工作。马克，非常有帮助。是的，是的。非常有帮助。谢谢。我后续的问题是更好地了解特斯拉未来定价的方法。先前，公司曾表示价格的降低导致需求激增，特别是对于那些可以获得税收抵免以及特斯拉提供的一些租赁优惠的车辆而言，这些车已经变得非常实惠。您是否仍然认为对现有产品进行有意义的定价降低是合理的？公司是否可以立即从现在开始降价，并且在当前产品上也能保持每年现金流量正数？谢谢。
Yeah, I think we can be free cash or positive, meaningfully. Yeah. The things I've offset it is opening remarks. Like our cost down efforts, we basically were offsetting the price kind of thing. So it's going to go like we're trying to give it back to the customers. Yeah, I mean, the other day, like for any given company, if you sell a great product at a great price, if you have a great product at a great price, the sales will be excellent. That's true of any arena. So over time, we do need to keep making sure that it's a great product at a great price. And moreover, that price is accessible to people. So you have to solve both the value for money and the fundamental affordability question.
是的，我认为我们可以在现金方面或者是盈利方面自由地运作，有意义地。是的。我要说的是我们已经抵消了开场白。就像我们降低成本的努力，我们基本上是在抵消价格。所以我们正在努力将这些好处传达给客户。是的，我是说，就像对于任何一家公司来说，如果你以出色的产品和优惠的价格出售产品，销售业绩将会很好。这在任何行业都是如此。随着时间的推移，我们确实需要不断确保产品的出色和价格的优惠。而且，价格也必须对人们来说是可承受的。因此，你必须解决物有所值和基本可负担性的问题。
The fundamental affordability question is sometimes overlooked. If somebody's earning several hundred thousand dollars a year, they don't think of a car from a fundamental affordability standpoint. For the vast majority of people are living paycheck to paycheck. So it actually makes a difference if the cost per month for lease or financing is $10 one way or the other. So it is important to keep improving the affordability and to keep making the price more accessible. Yeah, exactly. The price more accessible, the value for money better, and to keep improving out of a time. But also the main kick-ass coach. The people want to buy? Yeah, it's going to be a great product at a great price. And the standards for what costs to a great product at a great price keep increasing. So you can't just be static. You have to keep making the car better, improving the price of it, improving the cost of production. And that's what we're doing.
有时候我们会忽略基本的负担问题。如果有人一年赚几百万美元，他们不会从基本负担的角度考虑买车。但绝大多数人都是靠着每个月的工资勉强度日。所以每个月租车或融资的费用增加10美元或减少10美元确实会有影响。因此，保持价格的可负担性、让价格更具吸引力是非常重要的。是的，确切地说是让价格更具吸引力，性价比更高，并且不断提高。但同时也要成为主导的领导者。人们想买什么？是的，必须是性价比极高的产品，而且价格合理。对于什么样的产品算是价格合理的标准也在不断提高。所以不能停滞不前，必须不断改进产品，提高价格，降低生产成本。这就是我们正在做的事情。
Yeah, and in fact, like I said in my opening remarks also, the updated Model 3 is a fantastic card. I don't think people fully even understand that a lot of engineering effort which has gone in larger than team have actually put out videos explaining how much the car is different. When it looks and feels different, not only looks and feels different, we've added so much value to it. But you can lease it for as low as $2.99 a month. Yeah. Without gas. Yeah. All right, the next question, Councillor George from Canacorte. George, please go on and unmute. Hi, thank you for taking my question. First, can you please help us understand some of the timing of launching FSD in additional geographies including maybe clarifying your recent comment about China? Thank you. I mean, like new markets, yeah, we are. There are a bunch of mocks where we don't currently sell cars that we should be selling cars in. We'll see some acceleration of that. And FSD in new markets? Yeah, so the thing about the old, the anti-end neural net based autonomy is that just like a human, it actually works pretty well without modification in almost any market. So we plan on with the approval of the regulators releasing it as a supervised autonomy system in any market that will get regulatory approval for that, which I think includes China. So yeah, it's just like a human. You can go rent a car in a foreign country and you can drive pretty well. Obviously, if you're living in that country, you'll drive better. And so we'll make the car drive better in these other countries with countries specific training. But it can drive quite well almost everywhere. The basics of driving are basically the same everywhere. Not car is a car. It's a traffic, like road is a nice thing.
是的，事实上，就像我在开场白中所说的，更新的Model 3是一张很棒的卡片。我认为人们甚至没有完全理解有多少工程力量投入到其中，团队实际上发布了视频来解释这辆车有多么不同。它看起来和感觉不同，不仅外观和感觉不同，我们还为其增加了很多价值。但你可以以每月299美元的价格租赁它。是的。没有汽油。对了，下一个问题，来自Canacorte市议员George。George，请继续并取消静音。嗨，谢谢您回答我的问题。首先，您能帮助我们了解一下在哪些时机推出FSD至额外地理区域，包括可能澄清您最近关于中国的评论吗？谢谢。是的，新的市场，我们有一些我们目前尚未销售汽车的市场我们应该销售汽车，在这方面我们将会看到一些加速。还有新市场的FSD吗？是的，关于旧的反向神经网络自主性的情况是，就像人类一样，它实际上在几乎任何市场都可以很好地运行而无需修改。因此，我们计划在获得监管机构批准的情况下，在任何会得到监管批准的市场发布它作为一种受监督的自主性系统，我认为中国也包括在内。是的，这就像人类一样。你可以在外国租一辆车，开得还不错。显然，如果你在那个国家生活，你会开得更好。因此，我们将通过国家特定的培训使这些其他国家的汽车开得更好。但它在几乎任何地方都可以开得相当好。驾驶的基础原理几乎在任何地方都是相似的。不管是什么车，车就是车。道路就是道路。
Yeah, I don't understand that it shouldn't have things normally. There are some road rules that you need to follow in China. It's you shouldn't cross over a solid line tool and change. New versus recommendation, I think. China, you get fine heavily if you do that. We have to do some reductions, but it's mostly smaller reductions, not like the entire change of stack or something like that. Yeah. Hey, George, do you have a follow-up? So my follow-up has to do with the first quarter deliveries. I'm curious as to whether or not you feel that supply constraints that you mentioned throughout the release impacted the results. Can you help us quantify that? Is that why you have some confidence in unit growth in 2024?
是的，我不明白为什么通常不应该有一些东西。在中国有一些道路规则是必须遵守的。比如，你不应该越过实线换道。我认为这是一个新的建议。在中国，如果你这样做会被罚款。我们必须做一些调整，但大多数是小幅调整，而不是全面变动或类似的改变。是的。嘿，乔治，你有后续问题吗？我的后续问题和第一季度的交付有关。我想知道您是否认为您在新闻稿中提到的供应限制影响了结果。您能帮助我们量化这一点吗？这就是你为什么对2024年的单位增长有信心的原因吗？
Yeah. I think we did cover this a little bit in the opening remarks too. Q1 had a lot of different things which were happening. So now, she was a big one, continuing pressure from the macroeconomic environment. We had attacks at our factory. We had let's see attacks. We're ramping model three, ramping model cybertruck. All these things are happening. It almost feels like a culmination of all those activities in a constrained period. And that gives us that confidence that, hey, we don't expect. These things to record. Yeah. We think Q2 will be a lot better. Yeah. It was just one thing after another. Yeah, it's crazy.
是的，我觉得我们在开场白中也稍微涉及了这个问题。Q1有很多不同的事情发生。现在，她是一个重要的因素，来自宏观经济环境持续的压力。我们的工厂遭受了攻击。我们看到有攻击发生。我们正在推出Model 3和Cybertruck车型。所有这些事情都在发生。几乎感觉就像是在一个受限制的时间内所有这些活动的总结。这给了我们信心，嘿，我们不指望这些事情会反复发生。是的，我们认为Q2会好很多。是的，一个又一个事情发生。是的，太疯狂了。
Yeah, exactly. It's just if you've got cars that are sitting on ships, they obviously cannot be delivered to people. And if you've got excess demand for model three and model one in one market, but you don't have it there, it's quite a little. It's a really complex logistics situation. So I'd say also we did overcomplicate the sales process, which we've just in the past a week or so have greatly simplified. So it just became far too complex to buy a Tesla. Whereas it should just be you can buy the car in under a minute. So we're getting back to that you can buy a Tesla in under a minute interface from what was quite complex. Okay. Thank you.
是的，确实。如果你有汽车停在船上，显然是无法交付给顾客的。如果在某个市场上对Model 3和Model 1有过剩需求，但又没有库存，那就有点麻烦了。这真的是一个非常复杂的物流情况。我要说的是，我们过去确实让销售流程变得过于复杂，但最近一周左右我们已经大大简化了。所以现在买一辆特斯拉就变得太复杂了。而本应该只需要不到一分钟就能买到车。所以我们正在回到那种不到一分钟就能买到特斯拉的界面，从之前的相当复杂的情况中恢复过来。好的，谢谢。
Let's go to Colin Rush from Oppenheimer. Colin, go ahead on mute, please. Thanks so much, guys. You know, given the pursuit of Tesla, it really is the leader in AI for the physical world. And your comments are around distributed inference. Can you talk about what that approach is unlocking beyond what's happening in the vehicle right now?
让我们去找Oppenheimer的Colin Rush。Colin，请静音后发言。非常感谢，伙计们。你们知道，考虑到对特斯拉的追逐，它真的是物理世界人工智能的领导者。您的评论围绕分布式推理。您能谈谈这种方法会在当前车辆中发生的情况之外解锁什么吗？
Do you want to say something? Yeah, I can't imagine like the car even when it's a full robot, actually, that's 40 gonna be used on 50 hours a week. That's my guess, like a third of the hours a week. Yeah, it could be more or less. But then there's certainly going to be some hours left for charging and cleaning and maintenance in that world. You can do a lot of other workloads. Even right now, we are seeing, for example, these alone companies have this bad workloads where they send much of documents and those are run through pretty large neural networks and take a lot of, you know, compute to chunk through those workloads.
你想说点什么吗？是的，我无法想象像这样的汽车，即使它是一个完全的机器人，实际上，这40小时将要用在每周50小时。这是我的猜测，大约是一周三分之一的时间。是的，可能会更多或更少。但在那个世界里肯定会有一些时间留下来用于充电、清洁和维护。你可以处理很多其他的工作负荷。甚至在现在，我们看到，例如，这些单独的公司有这些繁重的工作负荷，他们发送了大量的文件，这些都经过了相当大的神经网络的运算，需要大量的计算来处理这些工作量。
And now that we already paid for this compute in these cars, it might be wise to use them and not let them be like buying a lot of expensive machinery and building them be like we don't want that. We'd want to use the compute as much as possible and close to like basically 100% of the time make it the use of it. That's right. I think it's analogous to Amazon Web Services where, you know, people don't expect that AWS would be the most valuable part of Amazon when it started out as a bookstore. So that was on nobody's radar. They found that they had excess compute because the compute needs would spike to extreme levels for brief periods of the year and then they had idle compute for the rest of the year. So then what should they do with all that excess compute for the rest of the year? That's kind of, yeah, monetizing. So it seems like kind of a no-brainer to say, okay, we've got millions and then tens of millions of vehicl...
现在我们已经在这些汽车中支付了这些计算费用，可能明智的做法是利用它们，而不是让它们就像购买了很多昂贵的机器然后不使用一样。我们希望尽可能多地使用这些计算资源，几乎可以说是百分之百地利用它。没错。我认为这类似于亚马逊网络服务，当亚马逊刚开始作为一家书店时，人们并没有预计AWS会成为最有价值的部分。所以那是没有人考虑到的。他们发现他们有多余的计算资源，因为一年中的瞬时计算需求会急剧增加到极高的水平，然后剩下的时间他们就有空闲的计算资源了。那么他们应该怎么处理那些一年中多余的计算资源呢？这就是，恩，货币化。所以似乎很显而易见地可以说，好吧，我们有数百万，然后几千万辆...
...es out there where the computers are out almost the time that we might as well have them do something useful. Exactly. And then I mean, if you get like to the 100 million vehicle level, which I think we will at some point get to, then you've got a kilowatt of usable compute and maybe your own hardware 6 or 7 by that time, then you really, I think you did have on the order of 100 gigawatts of usable compute, which might be more than anyone, more than any company, probably more than any company.
有些情况下，计算机几乎都处于开启状态，我们不如让它们做些有用的事情。确实如此。我是说，如果我们达到了1亿辆车的水平，我认为我们迟早会达到的话，那么你就拥有了一千瓦的可用计算能力，也许到那个时候你自己的硬件也会达到6到7。那么，我认为你确实拥有了大约100吉瓦的可用计算能力，这可能比任何人都多，可能比任何公司都多。
Probably because it takes a lot of intelligence to drive the car anyway and when it's not driving the car, you just put this intelligence to other users to solving the scientific problems that you've given. Or answering them for some reason. We've already learned a lot of deploying workloads to these nodes. Yeah. And unlike laptops and our cell phones, it is totally under test as control. So it's easier to miss you with the work from across different nodes as opposed to, you know, asking users for permission on their own cell phones to be very tedious.
可能是因为驾驶汽车本来就需要很多智慧，而当汽车不需要驾驶时，你可以将这种智慧用于解决你所提出的科学问题，或者出于某些原因向其回答。我们已经学到了很多将工作负载部署到这些节点上的工作。和笔记本电脑以及我们的手机不同，它完全处于受控状态。因此，跨不同节点进行工作可能更容易错过，而不像请求用户在自己的手机上许可那样繁琐。
Well, you're just drained the battery on the phone. Yeah, exactly. The battery is also loaded. Like technically, I suppose like Apple would have the most amount of distributed compute, but you can't use it because you can't just run the phone at full power and drain the battery. Yeah. So whereas for the car, even if you're a kilowatt level inference computer, which is crazy power compared to a phone, you know, if you've got a 15 or 60 kilowatt hour pack, it's still not a big deal to run.
嗯，你只是把手机的电池耗尽了。是的，没错。电池也是充满电的。从技术上讲，我觉得像是苹果可能拥有最多分布式计算，但你不能使用它，因为你不能让手机全功率运行并耗尽电池。是的。所以对于汽车来说，即使你是一个千瓦级别的推断计算机，与手机相比，这种功率让人难以置信，但是如果你有一个15或60千瓦时的电池组，运行起来也不是什么大问题。
Right. With you plug in or not, you could run for 10 hours and use 10 kilowatt hours, a few kilowatt of compute forever. Yeah. We're going to build in liquid cold thermal management. Yeah, it's exactly the best for data centers. So it's already there in the car. Exactly. Yeah, it's distributed power generation. It's distributed access to power and distributed cooling. And it's already faithful. Yeah, I mean, that's distributed power and cooling people underestimate that cost a lot of money.
对的。不管你是否插电，你可以连续运行10小时并使用10千瓦时电量，几千瓦的计算能力永远存在。是的。我们要建立液冷热管理系统。是的，这正是最适合数据中心的。所以它已经在车里存在。确切地说，这是分布式发电。它是分布式电源访问和分布式冷却。而且它已经可靠。是的，我的意思是，分布式电力和冷却，人们低估了这些会花费大量资金。
Absolutely. Yeah. And the capex is shad by the enter. Well, yes, sort of everyone wants to smell chunk and they get a small profit out of it. Yeah. Thanks so much, guys. And just my fault was a little bit more mundane. Looking at the 4680 ramp, can you talk about how close you are to target yields and when you might start to accelerate incremental capacity expansions on that technology? You know, we're making good progress on that. But I don't think it's super important for at least in the near term.
当然。对啊。而资本支出由企业承担。嗯，是的，大家都想赚点钱，然后从中获取一些微小的利润。谢谢大家。我只是想再谈一下更加平凡的问题。关于4680型电池的扩产，你们能否谈谈目标产量进展情况，以及何时开始加速扩大该技术的产能？我们在这方面取得了良好进展。但我认为至少在短期内，这不是非常重要的事情。
As Lars said, we think it will exceed the competitiveness of suppliers by the end of this year. And then we'll continue to improve it. Yeah, I mean, I think it's important to note also that the ramp right now is relevant to the cyber truck ramp. Yeah. And so we're not going to just randomly build 4680s, unless we have a place to put them. And so we're going to make sure we're prudent about that. But we also have a lot of investments with all our self suppliers and vendors. They're great partners and they've done great development work with us and a lot of the advancements in technology and chemistry we found in 4680, they're also putting into their cells. Yeah. I mean, big part of the 4680, what it tells us during the federal sales was a hedge against what would happen with suppliers. Because for a while there, it was very difficult because every big car maker put in massive battery orders. And so the price per kilowatt hour of lithium-ion batteries went to crazy numbers, to crazy levels. Bonkers.
正如拉斯所说，我们认为到今年年底将超越供应商的竞争力。然后我们将继续改进。是的，我认为也很重要要注意，目前的产能与Cybertruck的产能是相关的。是的。所以我们不会随意生产4680电池，除非有一个放置它们的地方。我们会确保在这方面谨慎。但我们也与所有的自供应商和供应商有很多投资。他们是很好的合作伙伴，他们与我们一起做了很多伟大的开发工作，而且我们在4680电池中发现的技术和化学方面的许多进展，他们也在他们的电池中应用。是的。4680电池的一个重要部分告诉我们在联邦销售期间是对供应商可能发生的事情进行的一种对冲。因为有一段时间非常困难，因为每个大型汽车制造商都下了大量的电池订单。因此，每千瓦时的锂离子电池价格达到了疯狂的数字，疯狂的水平。疯了。
Yeah, just bonkers. So like, okay, we've got to have some hedge here to deal with, you know, cost per kilowatt hours numbers that were double what we anticipated. If we have an internal cell production, then we have that hedge against a demand shocks, you know, with too much demand. That's really where you think about it. It's not like we want to take on a whole bunch of problems just for the hell of it. We did the cell program in order to address the crazy increase in cost per kilowatt hour from our suppliers due to gigantic orders placed by every car maker on Earth. So. Okay. Thank you. And the last question comes from Ben Calo from Baird. Ben, go ahead and unmute. And you're still muted. Well, I want to say again, we'd just like to strongly recommend that anyone who is, I guess, thinking about the Tesla stock should really drive FSD 12.3. You really, you can't, it's impossible to understand the company if you do not do this. All right. So since Ben is not unmuting, let's try Shre Espatil from Wealth Research. Final question.
是的，就是疯狂。所以，我们得有一些对冲措施来处理每千瓦时成本比我们预期的高出一倍的情况。如果我们有内部电池生产，那么我们就有了对冲措施来抵御需求冲击，你知道，太大的需求。这确实是你考虑的地方。这不是说我们想要背负一大堆问题就像无缘无故地一样。我们进行电池计划是为了解决由于全球每家汽车制造商放置的巨大订单导致供应商的每千瓦时成本激增的问题。好的。谢谢。最后一个问题来自贝尔德的本·卡洛。本，你可以解除静音。你还在静音状态。好吧，我想再说一遍，我们强烈推荐任何打算研究特斯拉股票的人应该真正体验一下FSD 12.3。如果你不这样做，你是无法理解这家公司的。好的。既然本还没有解除静音，让我们试试来自财富研究的希雷·埃斯帕蒂尔。最后一个问题。
Oh, hey, thanks so much. Just, you know, Elon, during the investor day last year, you mentioned that auto cogs per unit for the next gen vehicle would decline by 50% versus the current three and why. I think that was implying something around $20,000 of cogs. About a third of that was coming from the unbox manufacturing process. But I'm curious if you see an opportunity that the other, some of the other drivers around powertrain cost reduction or material cost savings, would those be largely transferable to some of the new products that you're, that you're now talking about, about introducing? Yeah, sure. I mean, in short, yes. I mean, like, you know, the unbox manufacturing method is certainly great and revolutionary, like with it comes some risk because you know, it's new production lines, not. But all the subsystems we developed, whether it was power trains, that, you know, driving its battery improvements in manufacturing and automation, thermal systems, seating, integration of interior components and reduction of LV controllers, all that's transferable. And that's what we're doing, you know, trying to get it into products as fast as possible. So I, yeah, that engineering work, we're not trying to just throw it away and put it, you know, in coffin, we're going to take it and utilize it and utilize it for the best advantage of the cars we make and the future cars we make.
哦，嘿，非常感谢。去年的投资者日上，埃隆，你提到新一代车辆的每单位汽车成本将比当前三代车型降低50％。我记得你当时似乎暗示成本约为2万美元。其中大约三分之一来自于无框制造过程。但我很好奇，你是否认为其他驱动力源于动力传动成本降低或材料成本节约方面的机会，这些机会是否可以广泛适用于你现在要介绍的一些新产品？
是的，当然。简言之，是的。毫无疑问，无框制造方法确实是伟大和革命性的，但也伴随着一些风险，因为你知道，这是新的生产线。但我们开发的所有子系统，不管是动力传动，电池改进，制造和自动化，热系统，座椅，内部部件的整合和LV控制器的减少，这一切是可以转移的。而且这就是我们正在做的事情，尽快将其运用到产品中。所以，是的，那些工程性工作，我们不会只是把它丢掉，埋在坟墓中，我们会利用它，为我们生产的汽车和未来的汽车发挥最佳作用。
Okay, great. And then just on that topic of 4680 cells, I know you mentioned it, you really thought of it more as like a hedge against, against rising battery costs from other OEMs. It seems, you know, even today, you know, it seems like you would have a cost advantage against some of those other automakers. And I'm wondering, you know, given the rationalizing of your vehicle manufacturing plans that you're talking about now, if there's an opportunity to maybe, you know, convert the 4680 cells and maybe sell those to other automakers and really generate an additional revenue stream, I'm just curious if you have any thoughts about that.
好的，太棒了。关于4680电池的话题，我知道你提到过，你更多地把它看作是一种对抗其他OEM厂商不断上涨的电池成本的对冲。即使是在今天，你似乎会对一些其他汽车制造商拥有成本优势。我想知道，考虑到你现在谈论的车辆制造计划的合理化，是否有机会将4680电池转换并可能将其出售给其他汽车制造商，从而创造额外的收入流？我只是好奇你是否有任何想法。
Great. What seems to be happening is that the, I'm missing something, the orders for batteries from other automakers have declined dramatically. So we're seeing much more competitive prices for cells from suppliers dramatically more competitive than in the past. It is clear that a lot of our suppliers have excess capacity.
太好了。看起来情况是，我可能漏掉了什么，其他汽车制造商对电池的订单急剧下降。因此我们看到供应商提供的电池价格大大降低，竞争力明显增强。很明显，我们很多供应商有过剩产能。
Yeah. And in addition to what Elon said, this is kind of the way. In addition to what Elon said about 4680s, what 4680 did for us from a supply chain perspective was help us understand the supply chain that's upstream of our cell suppliers. So a lot of the deals that we had struck for 4680, we can also supply those materials to our partners, help reducing the overall cost back to Tesla. So we're basically inserting ourselves in the upstream supply chain by doing that. So that's also been beneficial in reducing the overall pricing in addition to the excess capacity that these suppliers have. Yeah.
是的。除了埃隆说的之外，这是一种方式。除了埃隆关于4680的评论外，从供应链的角度来看，4680为我们做了什么是帮助我们了解我们的电池供应商之前的供应链。所以我们为4680达成的许多交易，我们也可以向合作伙伴供应这些材料，帮助降低特斯拉的整体成本。所以我们通过这样做基本上正在介入上游供应链。这也有助于降低整体定价，另外这些供应商还有多余的产能。是的。
Now, I mean, this is going to wax and wane, obviously. So, you know, there's going to be a boom and bust in battery cell production, where production exceeds supply, and then supply exceeds production and back and forth, kind of like on a DRAM or something. But yeah, so it's like what is true today will not be true in the future. There's going to be somewhat of a boom and bust cycle here. And then there are additional complications by, you know, with government incentives, like the Inflation Reduction Act, the IRA, which always found like a funny name for a chemical name.
现在，我的意思是，这肯定会有起伏。所以，你知道，电池电芯生产会出现繁荣和衰退，有时生产超过供应，有时供应超过生产，这有点像DRAM之类的东西。但是，是的，今天正确的事情未来可能就不正确了。这里会出现一定程度的繁荣衰退周期。此外，政府激励措施，比如通胀削减法案（IRA），对此会有额外的复杂性，这个化学名字总让我觉得有点好笑。
Yeah, this is like the Irish Republican Army, the Internet Research Agency from Russia. Independent retirement, too. Yeah, exactly. Roth IRA. That was like forest, vitamin situations, which the IRA wins. It is a complicated incentive structure, so that there is stronger demand for cells that are produced in the US than outside the US. But then how long does that the IRA last? I don't know. Which is why it's important that we have both internal cells and mineral cells that you get all of this.
是的，这就像爱尔兰共和军，俄罗斯的互联网研究机构。还有独立的退休金账户，是的，确切地说是罗斯IRA。这就像森林、维生素等情景，尤其是IRA获胜。它是一个复杂的激励结构，所以在美国生产的细胞的需求比在美国之外生产的更强。但是IRA能持续多久呢？我不知道。因此我们有内部细胞和矿物细胞，这点很重要，你可以得到全部这些。
Okay, thank you very much. That's all the time we have today. But at the same time, I would like to make a short announcement. And I wanted to let the investment community know that about a month ago, I met up with Elon and Beibath and announced that I'll be moving on from the world of investor relations. I'll be hanging around for another couple of months or so, so feel free to reach out anytime. But after this seven-year sprint, I'm going to be taking a break and spending some good quality time with my family. And I wanted to say that these seven years have been the greatest privilege of my professional life. I'll never forget the memories from.
好的，非常感谢。今天我们时间就到这里了。但与此同时，我想做一个简短的声明。我想告诉投资界，大约一个月前，我与埃隆和贝巴斯见面，并宣布我将离开投资关系领域。我将再呆几个月左右，随时欢迎联系我。但经过这七年的奋斗，我将休息一下，花一些高质量的时间和家人在一起。我想说，这七年是我职业生涯中最宝贵的时光。我永远不会忘记这些回忆。
I started literally at the beginning of production hell and just watching the company from the inside to see what it's become today. And I'm especially super thankful to the people in this room and dozens of people outside of this room that I've worked for over the years. I think that the team strength and teamwork at Tesla is unlike anything else I've seen in my career. Elon, thank you very much for this opportunity that I got back in 2017. Thank you for seeking investor feedback and regularly and debating it with me.
我从生产困境的最开始就开始参与，只是从内部观察这家公司如何发展到今天的样子。我特别感谢这个房间里的人和我多年来一直合作过的房间外的几十个人。我认为特斯拉团队的实力和团队合作是我职业生涯中所见过的任何其他公司都无法比拟的。埃隆，非常感谢您在2017年给我的这个机会。感谢您寻求投资者反馈并经常与我辩论。
Yeah, well, I mean, the reason I reached out to you is because I thought your analysis of Tesla was the best that I'd seen. Thank you. Yeah, thank you for helping Tesla get to where it is today over seven years. It's been a pleasure working with you. Thank you so much. And yeah, thank you for all the thousands of shareholders that we've met over the years and walked around factories and loved all the interactions, even the tough ones. And yeah, looking forward to the call in the next three months, but I'll be on the other side listening in. Thank you very much. Thanks. One second, guys. All right. As we usually do, I will do a little recap in here, a little bit of a summary. Man. Tough, tough way to end it, Martin. Let me know if the volume is OK here, guys.
是的，我是说，我之所以联系你是因为我觉得你对特斯拉的分析是我见过的最好的。谢谢。是的，感谢你在过去七年里帮助特斯拉取得今天的成就。和你一起工作是一种享受。非常感谢你。是的，感谢我们多年来遇到的成千上万的股东，我们一起参观工厂，喜欢所有的互动，即使其中有难题。期待着下个季度的电话，我会在另一端倾听。非常感谢。谢谢。抱歉，大家稍等一下。正如我们通常做的那样，我会在这里做一点小结。马丁，这真是一个艰难的结局。请告诉我这里的声音是否正常，大家。
Yeah. So, I mean, exciting earnings reports, obviously, the move in the stock price is, you know, people like to see that more, more sometimes than what is actually being reported, but obviously Tesla up 10% right now, I think pretty good call. I think, you know, a lot of stuff that we can talk about, but I just want to also just start with Martin. Martin's been, I think, an amazing advocate. I would say for retail shareholders within the Tesla community for, like you said, the last seven years, it's very sad. Sad for me to hear that he's going to be moving on, but as we know, there's always a time that comes for everyone when that decision makes sense.
是的。所以，我是说，令人兴奋的收益报告，显然，股价变动就是，你知道，人们更喜欢看到这一点，有时甚至超过实际报告的内容，但显然特斯拉目前上涨了10%，我认为这是一个相当不错的电话。我认为，我们有很多可以谈论的事情，但我只想从马丁那里开始。马丁在特斯拉社区内为零售股东做出了我认为是令人惊叹的倡导，就像你说的，过去七年里。听到他要离开对我来说是非常悲伤的。但我们知道，对每个人来说，总有一个时刻，做出这样的决定是有道理的。
So, you know, I'm excited for Martin for his next chapter. And again, just very thankful for everything that he's done for Tesla, everything that he's done for the retail investor community, the investor community at large. There's a lot of stuff that goes on behind the scenes that, you know, needs to be taken care of. And Martin's been the guy that's done that for a long time now. It's been a very small team, certainly for the size of organization that Tesla has been during that period, probably the smallest. So, yeah, I just want to, you know, extend my gratitude and thank you to Martin for all those years. It'll be sad to see Martin go.
所以，你知道，我为马丁的下一个章节感到兴奋。再次，非常感谢他为特斯拉所做的一切，为零售投资者社区和整个投资者社区所做的一切。幕后有很多事情需要处理，马丁一直是那个处理这些事情的人。在这段时间里，特斯拉的组织规模很小，团队规模非常小，可能是最小的。所以，我想要向马丁表达我的感激和感谢，感谢他所有这些年来的付出。看到马丁离开会令人伤感。
All right, but getting into the earnings call. All right, so interesting day for sure. I feel like we learned a lot. I think there's a lot to be excited about. We can kind of just go back and go through the notes here. But I think obviously that the highlight is the probably pretty significant change in strategy as it comes to, you know, where the next generation vehicles road map is going to be. Sounds like we're going to hear more about that on August 8th, even if that is sort of the Robo taxi announcement date, it sounds like we're going to, you know, even learn a little bit more about maybe what else is in the plans at that time. If they're really going to have vehicles out and I'm sure we've got the note here, but I think I think you said first half 2025, maybe even towards the end of this year. Now, it's Tesla time. So we can't necessarily count on that, but even the possibility of it is, I think, pretty extremely exciting. And I think, you know, a large part of what we are seeing in the stock after hours is the excitement for that. People realizing that maybe the next growth drivers aren't entirely tied to autonomy is maybe a little bit comforting. But should it be? I mean, I don't know. We talked a little bit earlier when the shareholder came out that having those things come a little bit faster for the long term of Tesla, for me personally, I don't think that's really all that important. I think what's more important is the development that's happening with autonomy. I mean, Elon said it on the skull. If you don't believe in that, then probably not the best idea to hold Tesla stock. And I think that has obviously become more of the case over the last 12 to 18 months as we've started to see that plateau within the Model 3 and the Model Y lineup. Now hopefully that plateau gets lifted a little bit higher as we move into some of these other products. But increasingly, it's looking like the value is really coming longer term, maybe not exclusively from autonomy, but it's we're getting close to that period where it's to continue growing. That needs to play a big role, especially if you want it to happen quickly and capital efficiently, which is part of what they had talked about here with this new roadmap. So I think there's a lot of excitement about that. And maybe some of that excitement is misplaced, but I think some of the negativity has also been misplaced. So I guess I'll take it a couple of misplacements offsetting each other and moving up a little bit here for the time being.
好的，但是现在让我们来谈一下收益电话。今天确实是个有趣的一天。我觉得我们学到了很多东西。我认为有很多值得期待的地方。我们可以回头看看笔记。但是我认为，显然一个重点是，关于下一代车辆路线图的战略可能会有相当大的改变。听起来我们会在8月8日听到更多关于这方面的消息，即使那可能是关于Robo taxi的公告日期，看起来我们可能在那个时候会了解更多关于计划中其他内容的消息。如果他们真的要在下半年2025年的时候推出车辆，我想我们已经在笔记里看到了，但我想你说的可能是2025年的上半年，甚至可能是今年年底。现在是特斯拉的时间。所以我们不能完全指望这一点，但即使有这种可能性，我认为相当令人兴奋。我认为，在盘后股价上涨的主要原因之一是因为人们意识到可能的下一波增长驱动力与自主性并非完全有关，这也许有点令人安慰。但是应该吗？我不知道。当股东发布消息时我们之前有过讨论，对我个人来说，这些事情事关特斯拉的长期发展，我认为这并不是那么重要。我认为更重要的是自动驾驶技术的发展。埃隆在电话会议上说过，如果你不相信这一点，那么持有特斯拉股票可能不是一个好主意。显然，在过去的12至18个月里，随着我们开始看到Model 3和Model Y系列产品的销量稳定下来，这个情况显然变得更为明显了。希望随着我们推出更多其他产品，这种销量稳定会有所提升。但是越来越明显的是，价值很大程度上是长期的，也许并不完全来自自动化，但我们越来越接近这一增长的阶段，需要起到重要作用，特别是如果你想让发展快速、资本效率高，这也是新路线图中他们谈到的一部分。我认为人们对此感到非常兴奋。也许有些兴奋是错误的，但我认为一些消极情绪也是错误的。所以我认为一些错误可能互相抵消，目前我们的股价有所上涨。
All right. So they talked about Q1 as we just kind of go through the notes here that'll jog our memories on points to talk about. As we can see, you know, Q1, I feel like people probably have not given enough credit to some of the challenges that Tesla has talked about. I think people read those words and just kind of write it off as, those are just excuses for poor demand or something like that. And I think there's probably a little bit of that, but I do think that some of what Tesla has mentioned, and you could kind of tell from Lars' exasperation when talking about Q1, just saying it really was one thing after another. And you're already in a seasonally challenging quarter. And you're coming off of a quarter that was quite strong in terms of delivery numbers. Of course, Tesla's strongest ever in Q4. So there's a lot of factors that go into one particular quarter. It's not the first time that we've seen challenging quarters for Tesla, you know, not even close to the first time. So I do think that there's something to be said for that. And I think it's good that they gave a little bit more detail on that.
好的。所以他们谈到了Q1，正如我们在这里浏览笔记时可以唤起我们记忆的一些要点。正如我们所看到的，你知道，Q1，我觉得人们可能没有给予特斯拉提到的一些挑战足够的重视。我觉得人们读到那些话，往往会把它们视为只是对需求不足的借口之类的东西。我觉得这可能有一点道理，但我确实认为特斯拉提到的一些问题，你可以从拉斯在谈论Q1时的沮丧感中得知，他说这真的就是一个接一个的问题。而且你已经处在一个季节性挑战的季度。而且你从一个交付数目相当强劲的季度中脱身。当然，特斯拉在Q4创下了历史最佳记录。所以有很多因素影响着一个特定季度。这并不是我们第一次看到对特斯拉有挑战的季度，甚至可以说远非第一次。所以我认为这方面是有道理的，我认为他们提供了更多的详细信息是件好事。
Energy storage, we've talked about. Great to see that. Of course, they've got great visibility into how that continues to ramp. AI training capacity. So we've talked plenty about that today already during the shareholder letter. New product roadmap. So updated future lineup, accelerate a launch of new products, more likely early 2025, if not late this year. So hey, early 2025, that would be fantastic. In terms of what these new products are, I didn't expect them to answer anything. Probably a waste of a question to ask about it. But I do think if you're going to ask about it, it was framed well when the analysts to ask about, you know, how do we think about these new products relative to something like a Model 3 Highland? Would that be something that would be considered to be kind of a new product? Or is it going to be something more significantly different where maybe you're talking about like a van or something in a new category that maybe Tesla's not offering today? So of course, we didn't get any more information on that. I wouldn't expect that we would. But the possibilities of those things are pretty exciting, especially given the timeline here. Now who knows? This would just be the launch, right? It's still going to take time to ramp up. And I guess they maybe didn't specifically say this meant customer deliveries. I think it's sort of implied. But we could also be talking about more, you know, like announcements or unveiling. I'd have to go back and look at some other context on that. But to me, it seems more likely that they're talking about just like actual production of those new products produced on the current manufacturing lines much more efficiently.
能源储存，我们已经谈论过了。很高兴看到这一点。当然，他们对未来如何持续增长有很好的洞察力。人工智能训练容量。今天在股东信中我们已经谈论了很多关于这个话题。新产品路线图。因此，更新未来产品线，加速推出新产品，更有可能在2025年初，如果不是今年晚些时候。所以，嘿，2025年初，那将是太棒了。关于这些新产品是什么，我并没有指望他们会回答任何问题。也许是一个浪费时间的问题去问关于这个问题的。但我认为如果你要问这个问题，当分析师问及我们如何看待这些新产品与像Model 3 Highland这样的产品相比，这个问题被提得很好。那是否会被视为一种新产品呢？或者会是更显著不同的产品，也许你们会谈论像货车或者是一些特斯拉今天还没有提供的新车种类？当然，我们并没有得到更多关于这个问题的信息。我也不指望我们会得到更多信息。但这些可能性令人振奋，尤其考虑到这个时间表。现在谁知道？这只是推出，对吧？要大幅增长还需要时间。我猜他们也许没有明确地说这意味着客户交付。我认为这是暗示。但我们也可能谈论更多，比如公告或者揭幕。我得回去看看其他相关的背景资料。但我觉得更有可能他们谈论的是在现有制造线上更有效地生产这些新产品。
Lars talked about that a little bit too on just some of the engineering plans that they have or that they had for the next generation vehicle, just implementing those kind of as they can versus waiting to do it all at once. With a new more capital intensive line, like seemed to be the original plan. FSD version 12. So we've talked a lot about that. As I've said earlier today, my experience with version 12 has been really good. You know, we know it's not solved yet, but this stepped forward. And I think Ashucks said it really well. There are, I think it was him that was speaking. He talked about four different areas. I'll probably get him wrong here. But model side scaling, architecture side scaling, training data scaling, and probably compute capacity scaling. Maybe there was one other one that I'm mixing up there, but you've got growth on all of those sort of vectors that's happening very quickly. And if scaling, not scaling laws, but scaling trends that they have seen before in those areas, if those trends continue, there's always a chance to kind of, you know, make them like run into an asymptote.
Lars也谈到了一些工程计划，他们或者说他们为下一代车辆制定的计划，就是逐步实施这些计划，而不是等到一次性实施。与最初的计划一样，一条新的资本密集型生产线。全自动驾驶软件版本12。所以我们已经谈论了很多。就像我之前说的那样，我的版本12的体验非常好。我们知道问题还没有完全解决，但这是一个进步。我认为 Ashucks 表达得很好，他谈到了四个不同的领域。我可能记错了。但是模型尺度化、架构尺度化、训练数据尺度化，还有可能是计算能力的尺度化。也许我搞混了另外一个领域，但在所有这些领域，增长都在以非常快的速度发生。如果他们之前在这些领域看到的尺度化趋势继续，就会有一种可能让它们达到渐近状态。
But if those trends continue on those sort of metrics, then we should see really rapid advancement. And I think that's what's so exciting. And I think Tesla sees that. That's what Elon's trying to tell people, like, Hey, we can see where this is going. Three to six months in advance. If that comes to fruition, and if we continue to see steps that are as significant as version 12 was from version 11, which again, there are a lot of good reasons to believe that that would be the case. If that materializes, I think the perception of where this is heading can change pretty quickly. And I think already has to an extent with version 12. So tons to be excited about on the AI front on the autonomous driving front.
但如果这些趋势在这些指标上继续发展，那么我们应该会看到非常快速的进步。我认为这就是让人激动的地方。我认为特斯拉也看到了这一点。这就是埃隆试图告诉人们的，就像，嘿，我们可以看到事情的发展方向。提前三到六个月。如果这成真了，如果我们继续看到像12版从11版那样重大的进步，而且有很多好理由相信会是这种情况。如果这一切实现了，我认为人们对这个方向的看法可以很快改变。我认为版本12已经在某种程度上引起了人们的兴奋。因此，在人工智能和自动驾驶领域仍有很多令人兴奋的事情。
I want to make sure I caught this correctly, but he did say for the August 8th event that they would showcase their their Robotaxi slash cyber cab. So I've been a little bit more skeptical that that would be cyber aesthetic, but it sounds like maybe that's going to be the case. So I guess we'll see on that, but that certainly sounds a little bit more like what we might be coming for the Robotaxi. So compute constraints. So no longer as much. There was a slide on this in the shareholder deck, but 35,000 H 100s. Expect that to be roughly 85,000 H 100s by the end of the year. So not quite tripling a little more than doubling.
我想确认一下我理解的是对的，但他确实说8月8日的活动上，他们会展示他们的Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）和数字出租车。所以我对这个是否会是未来感设计有些怀疑，但听起来可能会是这样。所以我想我们会等着看，但这肯定更像是我们对Robotaxi期待的样子。计算约束。在股东大会上有一张幻灯片，但目前的H100数量是35,000个。预计到年底这个数量会增加到大约85,000个。所以不是翻了三倍，但也不只是翻了一倍多。
And of course, this is already maybe not 10x, but maybe eight X where they were, you know, six months ago. So the amount of compute that is being brought online and installed and working and doing it very quickly and also training very efficiently with that compute capacity. Again, it's just it's one of those scalers that we talked about a second ago. That's advancing very rapidly. And what's nice about this is when you have more compute and you're not necessarily as constrained on it, you can test things out. You can train models very quickly. So hopefully we can see Tesla again, make those advancements, make those steps more more rapidly.
当然，这可能不是10倍，但可能是他们六个月前的8倍。因此，正在上线、安装和工作的计算量非常大，并且使用这种计算能力进行训练非常高效。再一次，这正是我们之前谈到的那些扩展者之一。它的发展速度非常快。而且，当你有更多的计算资源，而不受约束时，你可以测试各种方法，可以更快地训练模型。希望我们可以再次看到特斯拉更快地进行这些提升和发展。
Now, as they talked about, there's still a QA component. So they kind of need to do the training. And then there's a period of time where they need to let's maybe not as again constrained on compute more constrained on just like time to make sure that that training and quality assurance stuff happens. That's also going to generate some lead time in there. But again, hopefully we're seeing more rapidity.
现在，正如他们所讨论的，还有一个质量保证（QA）的部分。因此，他们可能需要进行培训。然后还会有一个一段时间，他们可能不是再在计算方面受到限制，而是在时间上受限制，以确保培训和质量保证工作得以进行。这也会产生一些前导时间。但是再次希望我们会看到更快的速度。
Then previously, gas cars, you know, not the first time we've heard those types of things. Let's see, cost of goods sold. So we've talked about most of the CFO type of updates previously from the shareholder letter. 75% growth in energy in 2024. So I don't know, we must have had what like 13 gigawatt hours last year, maybe. So I don't know what that is. Maybe just doing some quick math off my guess. So maybe we're looking at 2025 megawatt hours of energy storage this year, so this year.
之前，汽油车，你知道的，这种情况我们不是第一次听到。让我们看看销售成本。所以我们之前已经谈论过大部分首席财务官类型的更新了，从股东信中。2024年能源增长75％。所以我不知道，去年我们可能有13千兆瓦时，也许。所以我不知道那是什么。也许我只是根据我的猜测做了一些快速的计算。所以也许我们今年看着2025兆瓦小时的能量储存。
So maybe, you know, five five ish gigawatt hours per quarter, not an incredibly higher run rate than what we're at right now, but still definitely very strong growth year over year. Hopefully there are continued economies of scale within that growth. And if we can see, you know, consistent 25, maybe even above 25% growth margins there, which of course, I think the inflation reduction act is boosting a little bit at the moment, but that definitely helps and raises Tesla's overall growth margin, of course, that's higher than automotive.
可能每季度大约是五到五个GWh，与我们目前的运行速度相比并不是非常高的增长率，但仍然在年度增长方面表现出非常强劲的增长。希望在这种增长中能够持续实现规模经济。如果我们能够看到，你知道的，稳定的25%甚至超过25%的增长率，当然，我认为通货膨胀减缓法案目前正在提振一点，但这确实有助于提高特斯拉的整体增长率，当然，这比汽车业高。
Free cash flow should return a positive in Q2. I think they give a little bit more context on that that I may have missed in the notes. Headcount reduction seems like actually some pretty significant savings, which they mentioned investing in AI. I think in general, you know, a lot of confidence in where things are headed for a lot of areas within the business, which is, which is nice to see. All right, 4680s. So it's well ahead of the Cybertruck ramp.
自由现金流应该在第二季度恢复正值。我认为他们在这方面提供了一些我在笔记中可能错过的背景信息。裁员似乎实际上带来了一些相当可观的节省，他们提到了在人工智能方面的投资。我认为总的来说，在业务的许多领域，对事态发展充满信心，这是令人高兴的。好了，4680s。所以它领先于Cybertruck的扩产。
And that's kind of the goal. They want to continue to have sort of weeks levels of supply so that they can continue to support that ramp, but they also don't want to get too far ahead as then they're just going to have cells sitting around doing nothing. I wish they would just put that into the semi, but obviously that's not quite ready to go. And it sounds like they're still learning and implementing things from learnings with sort of the test fleet that they have out there now, which it makes a lot of sense.
这也是他们的目标。他们希望继续保持一定的供应水平，这样他们可以继续支持产能的增长，但他们也不希望提前太多，否则他们只会让电池坐在那里无所作为。我希望他们能把这些都整合到半导体中，但显然还不够成熟。听起来他们仍在学习和实施从现有测试车队中获得的经验教训，这是非常明智的。
I know we all want to see stuff happen faster, which given what they had talked about previously, there were faster targets at one point. But I think when we do get to that point, it's going to be, you know, the semi is a very exciting vehicle for when it does end up coming in volume. Goal of 4680s to beat nickel cells by the end of the year. A lot of bullish commentary around optimists. I think we've all kind of thought about those things previously.
我知道我们都希望事情发生得更快一些，根据之前讨论过的内容，曾经有更快的目标。但当我们达到那个阶段时，半挂车将会是非常令人兴奋的交通工具。4680电池的目标是在年底之前击败镍电池。对于乐观主义者，有很多看涨的评论。我觉得我们都之前都考虑过这些事情。
Inference efficiency, though, I think that's important. And I think, you know, you see these other companies out there that are, they've got their little prototypes and I don't mean to be demeaning. They've got their prototypes and, you know, maybe they look interesting or maybe they'll go out or do something that maybe Tesla hasn't demonstrated doing yet. I mean, you just got to realize that it's not really any different than showing some sort of a concept car, right? It's Elon's common refrain.
我认为推理效率很重要。我发现其他公司有他们自己的小样机，不是贬低别人意思。也许他们看起来很有趣，也许他们会做出一些特别的东西，甚至是特斯拉还没展示过的。但你必须意识到，这其实和展示概念车没有什么不同。这是伊隆常说的话。
Prototypes are easy. Production is hard. Same thing with this inference stuff is that even if you're mass producing this humanoid robot, you also have to do the inference extremely efficiently. Otherwise these things are going to be very power intensive and that reduces the battery, which reduces the functionality or you're adding weights and expense.
原型很容易做。生产则很困难。推理工作也是如此，即使您正在大规模生产这种人形机器人，您还必须进行极其高效的推理。否则这些机器人会消耗大量电力，这会导致电池寿命减少，功能降低，或者您需要增加重量和成本。
So a lot of the things that Tesla has already learned and iterated on and done within the vehicle business, those things carry over to optimists and any of these new companies, they don't have that skill set, that expertise, that year, you know, decades of pain of doing this in manufacturing that Tesla does. So to do that, plus what we're talking about with the inference where Elon said, you know, they've had to learn how to infer things very efficiently just because of the constraints that they've had on hardware and the vehicles, those learnings also carry through to optimists too. There's a lot of competitive advantages that Tesla has that don't really become apparent in this prototyping stage that everyone is in, but eventually they become very clear and it's kind of like you could look back and you could look at a, I don't know, a fair day, future 91 or whatever they called their car and maybe you look at the prototype and you say, oh yeah, this looks great. This could compete with Tesla and then when you get into reality, it's just there is no world where it could, you know. So not to say that that's exactly the same, but those things need to be considered and they're largely not considered at this type of an early stage, even though they need to be.
因此，特斯拉已经学到并在汽车业务中进行了迭代和改进的许多事情，这些都可以延续到乐观派和任何这些新公司身上，这些公司并没有这种技能、专业知识和经验，你知道，特斯拉在制造方面已经经历了几十年的痛苦。所以为了做到这一点，再加上我们和埃隆讨论的推理，他说过，他们必须学会以非常高效的方式推断事物，这是因为他们在硬件和车辆上面所受到的限制，这些经验也适用于乐观派。特斯拉拥有许多竞争优势，在这个所有人都处于原型阶段的阶段并不明显，但最终变得非常清晰，这就像你回过头去看一个...未来91或者他们称之为未来91的汽车，也许你看看原型说，哦，这看起来很棒，可以与特斯拉竞争，但实际进入现实后，就明显不存在它能够竞争的世界。并不是说这两者完全相同，但这些因素需要被考虑到，不过目前在这种早期阶段很大程度上并没有被考虑到，即使它们应该被考虑到。
Regulatory approval, so some states allow this. We've talked about that. I think the regulatory approval stuff has always been pretty overblown. Elon's point of view basically just like get the data that shows that it's safer and then you know, there's not much of an argument to not allow it. Tesla operate the fleet. So of course they showed the sort of Tesla app render in the earnings stack. Hopefully everybody saw that already.
监管批准，因此一些州允许这样做。我们已经谈论过这个问题。我认为监管批准的事情总是被夸大了。埃隆的观点基本上是，只要获取显示更安全的数据，那么就没有不允许的理由。特斯拉运营这支车队。因此，当然他们在财报中展示了特斯拉应用程序的渲染图。希望每个人都已经看过了。
Interesting commentary around the value of the compute that could just be sitting idle in these vehicles and I think they did a good job of explaining it. It's not just the exact same as a phone sitting out there, right, where this is potentially very high powered computer that is, you know, liquid cooled potentially with a high power battery source that can go for a long time without needing to be plugged in. I think they didn't do the best job of explaining what that compute could be used for. So probably a good area to expand on, but I think they're thinking about it of like, there's clearly value here and that value is something that can be extracted and probably shared with owners of the vehicle that the computer's being used for.
有趣的评论围绕着这些车辆中可能闲置的计算机的价值展开，我认为他们在解释这一点方面做得很好。这并不只是一个在那里闲置的手机，对吧，这可能是一个非常高性能的计算机，可能是液冷的，配有高功率电池，可以长时间运行而不需要插电。我认为他们在解释这个计算机可以用来做什么方面做得不够好。因此可能是一个很好的扩展领域，但我认为他们正在思考，显然这里有价值，并且这个价值是可以被提取出来并可能与使用该计算机的车主共享的。
So I wish I knew better how that value will be extracted, but like what Tesla has presented, I feel like there's just got to be some pretty good value there, which is I think very exciting. So training, again, I think they gave good context on just the strength of the feedback loop that they have gotten in place. And I think they made a good comment about a lot of the learning and a lot of this feedback loop happens without intervention by engineers. They don't need someone necessarily going in and, you know, necessarily like labeling everything. It's just feeding the data in and letting the probabilities of the neural network update with that new data.
所以我希望我更了解价值是如何提取的，但就像特斯拉所展示的，我觉得其中一定有很大的价值，这让我感到非常兴奋。关于训练，我认为他们给出了很好的背景，说明了他们建立的反馈循环的强大性。我认为他们对很多学习和这种反馈循环发生并不需要工程师干预的评论很中肯。他们并不一定需要有人进去，不一定需要将一切都标记出来。只需将数据输入，让神经网络的概率随着新数据更新。
Hopefully over time that improves the model and then you get new data that helps improve it more and that just keeps going. So that's pretty exciting. Talked about version 12.4 and 12.5. I wish we would have gotten an estimate on that, but it's just based on what you want to said, it sounds like they're kind of seeing three to six months out. So I don't know, maybe three months for 12.4 and six months for 12.5. You've kind of got that quality assurance piece in there too, which we don't know exactly how long that would take, but we can get an idea from how the release of models has gone for past versions. So there's those scaling. So model side, data side, training side, architecture scaling. I think that's what I said, but maybe not. All right.
希望随着时间推移，模型会得到改进，然后获得新数据来帮助进一步改进，这个过程将持续下去。这非常令人兴奋。我们谈到了版本12.4和12.5。我希望我们能够得到一个估计，但根据你的说法，看起来他们可能会在三到六个月内发布。所以也许12.4会在三个月内发布，12.5会在六个月内发布。你还提到了质量保障方面的内容，虽然我们不确定需要多长时间，但我们可以从以往版本的模型发布情况来了解大致需要多久。所以这里涉及到模型方面、数据方面、训练方面和架构扩展。我想我是这么说的，但也许不太确切。好的。
Cyber truck. So I said this earlier today, but I'm actually very happy with where the cyber truck is at ramp wise, you know, 3900 vehicles delivered by mid April. That's well ahead of what I had projected by that point in the forecast that I had made back in, you know, the second half of 2023. So when cyber truck was kind of just launching, so I'm really happy with that for such a unique vehicle to already be a thousand per week. Although it's probably not a thousand per week every week to hit that milestone is is pretty encouraging, I think. And hopefully continue on that path throughout the rest of this year and kind of get to what would be known as quote unquote volume. Maybe end of this year, maybe early next year, which would be sort of that five K per week type of a number. I think the Tesla would be doing that, right? Or maybe it's more like 3K for. Cyber truck? Yeah, so probably more like 3K. So they're actually not really too far off of where they have the volume planned for this first iteration. So semi we kind of talked about that external customers in 2026.
Cyber truck。所以今天早些时候我说过，但实际上我对网络卡车的产量非常满意，你知道，4月中旬之前交付了3900辆车。这远远超出了我在2023年下半年制定的预测中在那个时点的预期。所以当网络卡车刚开始推出时，我对此感到非常满意，能够达到每周1000辆的目标。尽管可能不是每周都是1000辆，但达到这一里程碑令人鼓舞。希望今年余下的时间能够继续这条道路，达到所谓的量产，也许在今年底，也许在明年初，达到每周约5000辆的产量。我认为特斯拉会做到这一点，对吧？或者可能更接近3000辆。网络卡车？是的，所以可能更接近3000辆。所以他们实际上并没有离第一阶段计划的产量太远。至于半挂车，我们谈论到2026年外部客户。
I apologize. I was kind of laughing at the permanent FSD transfer situation. I've shared my comments on that before and I would actually benefit from that because I've got FSD on a 2021 model year model three. And of course there's a new model three right now, which is quite tempting. But I get both sides of it. From Elon's perspective, if they, especially from the permanent perspective, it doesn't make a lot of sense to make it permanent. The one time things since FSD hasn't really truly been delivered in its final form yet, although we're getting quite close, I think, to sort of what was initially promised depending on when things were purchased because earlier promises were more strong. But anyway, from Elon's perspective, if they were to make that permanent, then people would be getting $50,000 worth of value for $8,000 right now. It just doesn't really make a lot of sense. So that's why he's just kind of immediately shutting that down. But obviously there have been windows where they've opened that up. And hopefully that is acquiesced some of the people that have had frustrations with lack of FSD transferability. You know, hopefully you were able to take advantage of that if that was a big important point for you.
我很抱歉。我有点在笑永久FSD转让的情况。我之前分享过我的评论，实际上我会受益于这一点，因为我在2021年的Model 3上有FSD。当然现在有一个新的Model 3，非常诱人。但我理解双方的观点。从埃隆的角度来看，特别是从永久的角度来看，把它设为永久并没有太多意义。因为FSD还没有完全以最终形式交付，尽管我们已经很接近了，我认为，根据购买时间，我们已经接近最初承诺的内容。但无论如何，从埃隆的角度来看，如果他们通过让FSD转让成永久，那么人们现在只需支付8,000美元就能得到价值50,000美元的价值，这在逻辑上并不太合理。所以他就迅速否决了这个想法。但显然，他们曾经有过开放这种转让的窗口。希望这让一些因为FSD不可转让而感到沮丧的人们稍微安心。你知道，希望你能抓住机会，如果这对你很重要的话。
Megapack, so we've talked about that. Nothing too surprising. And then these get into analyst questions. Which I think a lot of stuff we have talked about before. Kind of interesting from Alex Potter's question on Elon's ownership of Tesla. He was kind of like, all right, what's the path, Elon, for you to actually get to that ownership percentage? And one of the ways that Elon answered it, and maybe this is just based on restrictions of what he can cannot say sounded like there are some of those when he started to bring up the shareholder vote. But his answer to how that would happen potentially could be through share buybacks, where if Elon is holding a fixed number of shares and Tesla is buying back shares that exist out there, the float, as those shares get bought back and essentially retired, then Elon's same number of shares would be a larger percentage of the outstanding shares.
我们已经提到过兆瓦包，没有什么令人意外的。然后转入到分析师的问题。我觉得很多东西我们之前已经讨论过了。Alex Potter对埃隆拥有特斯拉的股权提出了一个挺有趣的问题。他似乎在问，埃隆，你要如何才能实现拥有那么高的股权比例呢？埃隆的回答可能是通过股票回购来实现，也许这仅仅是基于他可以说和不可以说的限制。当他提到股东投票时似乎存在这样的限制。但他对可能发生的方式的回答是，埃隆持有固定数量的股票，而特斯拉回购现有的股票，使得流通股份数量减少，那么埃隆持有的同样数量的股票将成为总流通股份的更大比例。
So if Tesla were to do significant buybacks, then Elon's percentage could, maybe not easily, but it could grow over time to that 25%, which I think that would be the most preferred path from everybody. I wouldn't mind if there were another compensation plan, but if Elon can get to where he wants to be without that, obviously it's on a per share basis going to be potentially more rewarding for others. Now I still think Elon should have some sort of motivating thing out there other than just the current equity, the underlying equity, but it is what it is. All right, let's see, implication for headcounts, nothing too new. I mean, we've gone through these cycles a lot. I think it's encouraging to hear Elon talk about just making sure that things are reorganized for the next phase of growth.
所以如果特斯拉要进行大额回购，那么埃隆的持股比例可能会随着时间增长到25%，这种情况可能不容易实现，但这可能是最多人青睐的路径。我不介意有另一种薪酬计划，但如果埃隆可以在没有其他计划的情况下达到他想要的地方，显然按照每股基础可能会对其他人更有益。我仍然认为埃隆应该有某种激励机制，而不仅仅是当前的股权，但事情就是这样。好吧，让我们来看看对人员配备的影响，没有太多新的内容。我觉得听到埃隆谈论确保事物为下一阶段的增长重新组织是令人鼓舞的。
So reiterating that he spends the majority of his time at Tesla in terms of work, I think they can be meaningfully free cash flow positive in the current market with their current lineup. They said they'll be, I believe, free cash flow positive next quarter. There was something to you about production versus demand and deliveries. I didn't quite catch the comments there, so I might have to go back to that. Other regions, so sounds like FSD. It's really subject to regulatory approval. Hopefully we'll see it in another market soon, but I know particularly in Europe that's been a challenge, perhaps less challenging in China. Simplifying the sales process. And for instance, we talked about 4680s, so I wish somebody would have asked about Dojo. I mean, it's literally in the slide deck. I don't think anyone asked about it. They're talking about all this AI compute. No one even asks about Dojo. It's frustrating. But 4680s, so less excited about their comments there, but good to see that 4680s are improving. Hopefully well ahead of the Cybertruck ramp. Cost competitive with other nickel cells this year. It doesn't sound like they really have intent to supply. Use them in the supply chain for others, at least at this time. But as Elon said, things cycle. So we'll see how things change over time. Then back to Martin.
因此，在工作方面，他在特斯拉大部分时间都是在工作，我认为他们可以在当前市场以及现有产品线上实现有意义的自由现金流。他们说他们会的，我相信，下一个季度就会有自由现金流。关于生产与需求以及交付方面有一些内容。我没有完全听懂那些评论，所以我可能需要再回去看一下。其他地区，听起来像是FSD。这实际上取决于监管批准。希望我们会很快在其他市场看到它，但我知道特别是在欧洲这是一个挑战，也许在中国不那么具有挑战性。简化销售流程。例如，我们谈到了4680，我希望有人问问关于Dojo的问题。它已经在幻灯片中了。我觉得没有人问过。他们谈论了所有这些人工智能计算。没人问Dojo的问题。这让人沮丧。但是4680，对于他们在那里的评论不太激动，但很高兴看到4680正在改进。希望在Cybertruck推出之前就有进展了。今年成本竞争力与其他镍电池相当。听起来他们似乎并没有计划供应，至少目前不是。但正如埃隆所说，事物是循环的。所以我们将看看随着时间的推移事物会怎样变化。然后回到马丁。
Said. All right, guys. Well, it's been fun hanging out, talking Tesla. I'm glad we get a nice positive reaction in the stock here. I guess I've mentioned it a few times that, I don't know, it feels like it's just misstepping in both directions. And washing out. Again, to me, it doesn't really, the timeline of whether something happens six months earlier isn't super important. I think the market is liking that it maybe feels like Tesla's not as all-in on autonomy, but then at the same time, listen to Elon's comments. They're pretty all-in on autonomy. So that should also be recognized.
大家好。嗯，和大家在一起聊特斯拉很有趣。我很高兴我们在股票上得到了积极的反应。我觉得特斯拉似乎在两个方向上都在失误，然后再洗刷。对我来说，无论某事是否提前六个月发生并不是很重要。我觉得市场可能会喜欢特斯拉似乎对自动驾驶不是那么全力以赴，但同时，听到埃隆的评论，他们对自动驾驶还是挺全力以赴的。所以这也应该被认可。
But I'm excited to see what Tesla's got on the works. And if we do see some new products in the next year, that's, I think, a positive surprise. And at least in terms of timing. And certainly always exciting to see what Tesla's coming up with. And then like I said, before deliveries came out this quarter, most important thing that's happened in the last few months is definitely the progress with FSD. We've talked about it enough, but I want to reiterate that because it's very critical to make sure that that's well understood. Greg, thank you. I really appreciate that. Can't pull it up on the screen on this one. But thank you. And then we'll wrap it up for today, guys. So I really appreciate you all hanging out with me here for earnings. It's been fun. I don't know when the next one will be at the latest it'll be next earnings. We'll see what happens in between now and then and what my availability is like. But like I said, it's been really busy, really good with the first principles group.
但我对看看特斯拉正在开展的工作感到兴奋。如果我们在明年看到一些新产品，我认为这是一个积极的惊喜。至少在时间上是这样。总是很令人兴奋能够看到特斯拉将推出的东西。就像我之前说的，在本季度交付出货之前，过去几个月发生的最重要的事情当然就是FSD的进展。我们已经谈论过很多次了，但我想再强调一下，因为确保这一点被充分理解非常关键。Greg，谢谢你。我非常感激。这次无法在屏幕上显示出来。但谢谢。今天就到这里吧，伙计们。我真的很感激你们和我一起参加收益会议。这很有趣。我不知道下一次会是什么时候，最晚会是下一次收益会议。在那之前会发生什么，以及我的时间是否有空，我们拭目以待。但就像我说的，最近确实很忙碌，与首要原则小组合作非常顺利。
And I'm looking forward to our next opportunity to talk to Tesla together. All right. I'll wrap it up here. Thanks.
我期待着下次我们有机会一起和特斯拉交谈。好的，我就在这里结束了。谢谢。