The Former NADA Chairman Pushing to Shape The Car Business | Car Dealership Guy Podcast
发布时间 2024-03-19 09:00:26 来源
What dealers think about when they wake up is, I gotta get something done today. Okay. So you gotta apply yourself and get something done. So every day I want to apply something, get something done, or something moving to stop moving. A new FTC rule is threatening dealerships nationwide. But this former NADA chairman believes he can stop it. Today I'm speaking with Jeffrey Pohanka, chairman of Pohanka Automotive Group. We discuss the 38 billion potential cost of the FTC's CARS rule. Breaking down Tesla's direct to consumer model. When will Chinese cars come to America? And much more. Don't forget to click subscribe so you never miss an episode.
汽车经销商们醒来时所想的是，我得今天做点什么。好的。所以你必须努力去做一些事情。所以我每天都想要努力做点什么，完成一些任务，或者让某些事情停止。一项新的FTC规定正在威胁着全国各地的汽车经销商。但这位前NADA主席相信他能够阻止它。今天我和Jeffrey Pohanka，Pohanka Automotive Group主席交谈。我们讨论了FTC的汽车规则可能带来的380亿美元潜在成本。解析特斯拉的直销模式。中国汽车何时将进入美国？等等。别忘了点击订阅，这样您将不会错过任何一集。
What's up everyone? This is CAR dealership guy. You're listening to the CAR dealership guy podcast, which is my effort to give you access to the most transparent insights into the car market. But before we get into the show, this episode was brought to you by the AutoHauler Exchange. AutoHauler Exchange is changing how people who send and carry cars work together. Now, if you need to send a car, you can directly work with carriers all over the country. And if you carry cars, you don't have to look through broker's list to find good, fair jobs anymore. By eliminating the middleman, all shipments on the AutoHauler Exchange come directly from the owner of the vehicle being shipped, with carriers receiving real shipment opportunities at direct pricing. AutoHauler Exchange helps shippers and carriers work together easily and clearly adding transparency and making better partnerships. Get off the AutoHauling Roller Coaster by getting on the AutoHauler Exchange. To learn more, visit autohaulerexchange.com or click the link in the show notes below.
大家好！我是汽车经销商。你正在收听汽车经销商的播客，这是我努力为您提供对汽车市场最透明的见解的努力。但在开始节目之前，本集的赞助商是AutoHauler Exchange。AutoHauler Exchange正在改变发送和运送汽车的人们如何合作的方式。现在，如果您需要发送一辆车，您可以直接与全国各地的承运人合作。如果您是承运汽车的人，您不再需要查看经纪人的名单来找到好的、公平的工作。通过消除中间人，AutoHauler Exchange上所有的运输都直接来自被运送车辆的所有者，承运人可以以直接价格获得真实的运输机会。AutoHauler Exchange帮助承运人和承运人轻松明确地合作，增加透明度，建立更好的合作关系。通过加入AutoHauler Exchange，摆脱运输的过山车。要了解更多信息，请访问autohaulerexchange.com，或点击下方节目说明中的链接。
This episode is also brought to you by CDK Global. CDK Global has been empowering nearly 15,000 dealers with the tools and technology they need to build deeper relationships with customers. Their team is keenly aware of the state of dealership technology and while many vendors promise seamless experiences between your CRM, DMS, digital retail and fixed ops, most of these bolt-on solutions tend to break workflows and cause more harm than good. That is why CDK has launched a new dealership experience platform. This new integrated software consists of everything you need to operate a dealership efficiently while delivering an unparalleled experience to your customers.
这一集也由CDK全球赞助。CDK全球一直致力于为将近15,000家经销商提供他们建立更深层次客户关系所需的工具和技术。他们的团队非常了解经销商技术的现状，并且尽管许多供应商承诺在CRM、DMS、数字零售和固定操作之间提供无缝体验，但大多数这些附加产品往往会破坏工作流程，造成更多损害。这就是为什么CDK推出了一款新的经销商体验平台。这款全新的综合软件包含了您运营经销商所需的一切，同时为您的客户提供无与伦比的体验。
Basically, everything working together, not separate, one system to run your dealership as opposed to 10. CDK developed it with an outside-in approach listening to dealers every step of the way. You can learn more about CDK's dealership experience platform by visiting CDKGlobal.com slash DXP or clicking the link in the show notes below. What's life as you're transitioning out of being the NADA chairman? What's life like nowadays? A little less travel, but I'm still very connected. I got pulled back in a week ago on some big issues. I'm here in DC, I live nine months, I'm in the ADA building and so I will stay connected for a long time.
基本上，一切都在一起运作，而不是分开，作为一个系统来管理您的汽车经销商，而不是十个系统。 CDK与汽车经销商密切合作，听取他们的意见，采用外部途径进行开发。 您可以通过访问CDKGlobal.com/ DX 或点击下方节目说明中的链接来了解更多关于CDK汽车经销商体验平台的信息。 过渡成为NADA主席后的生活是怎样的？ 现在的生活是怎样的？旅行少了一些，但我仍然非常连接。 一个星期前我被卷入了一些重大问题。 我现在在华盛顿DC，我在ADA大楼工作九个月，所以我将长时间保持联系。
It's not like I'm from Arkansas, a note slide on an Arkansas. I'm not going back to Arkansas. It'd probably be different if I live far away from Washington, but I'm still here. I love it. Jeff, I want to start with your background. You are a third generation dealer. Pohanka, it's just a notorious dealer group to say the least. I mentioned you on our last call. I've actually bought cars from Unipast, so very, very familiar even though I'm not from the DC area. Take us back to your early beginnings in this industry and getting into the car business through the family. Well, it's a great story. My grandfather, Frank Pohanka lived in the Bronx and he was a late grower. He ran away from home in eighth grade when he come to Jockey. He got a job on a horse farm with a stable boy in Long Island, a famous horse farm, and was able to become a Jockey and was very successful.
并不是说我来自阿肯色州，一则记录滑动在阿肯色。我不会回到阿肯色州的。如果我住在华盛顿远离的地方可能会不同，但我现在还在这里。我喜欢这里。杰夫，我想从你的背景开始。你是第三代车商。Pohanka，至少可以说是一个臭名昭著的经销商集团。我在我们最后一次通话中提到过你。我其实从Unipast那里买过车，所以非常非常熟悉，即使我不是来自华盛顿特区。让我们回到你在这个行业的早期开始以及通过家族进入汽车业务。这是一个很棒的故事。我的祖父弗兰克·波汉卡住在布朗克斯区，他是一个晚熟者。他在八年级时从家里逃跑来到马术学校。他在朗岛的一个著名马术学校找到了工作，成为了一名骑师，并取得了巨大成功。
Race all over North America made a lot of money. Eventually, he couldn't keep weight. He outgrewed the job. So he decided what to do the rest of his life and he was good with his hands. So I've come in auto mechanic. So I went back to New York, I went to the New York Public Library, I read all the books I had there were on cars, which there probably weren't that many. He worked in different garages to learn different technologies. He got hired by Channel Motors as a service rep and they moved him to Washington DC as a service manager of factory on dealership and became his own Chevrolet dealer in 1919 in downtown Washington.
在北美各地的比赛让他赚了很多钱。最后，他再也无法保持体重。他超越了这份工作。于是他决定要做自己未来的事情，而且他很擅长动手。所以他选择了当汽车技工。于是我回到了纽约，去了纽约公共图书馆，阅读了所有关于汽车的书，可能并不多。他在不同的车库工作，学习不同的技术。后来他被Channel Motors公司聘请为服务代表，他们把他调到了华盛顿特区，成为一家厂家授权经销商的服务经理，并在1919年成为了华盛顿市中心的雪佛兰经销商。
So now my father started working for my grandfather at the age of 13 like I did, you know, summers. And then, you know, I got into the business after college and there was no pressure to go into business. I have an older brother who's now deceased, a younger sister. He was a historian, a writer, she's a scientist, had no interest in the business and that's fine because my father's brother, older brother, they were partners in the dealership.
所以我父亲从13岁开始像我一样在夏天工作给我爷爷。之后，我上完大学也进入这个行业，但并没有压力要从业。我有一个已故的哥哥和一个妹妹。我哥哥是历史学家、作家，妹妹是科学家，对这个行业没有兴趣，但这也没关系，因为我父亲的哥哥在经销商合伙。
And now here's interesting, my grandfather ran away from an eighth grade, but yet his two children, my father and my uncle went to Princeton at MIT. He said, tell us something. And my father's more the salesman and his brother's more the engineer. So he wasn't really suited the engineer for the car business. My father bought him out and he ended up working on nuclear submarines, which was what he was good at. So there was no pressure on me to enter into business.
现在有趣的是，我的祖父只上到八年级就辍学了，但他的两个孩子，也就是我的父亲和叔叔，却分别就读于普林斯顿和麻省理工。他说，告诉我们一些事情。我父亲更像是销售员，而他的兄弟更像是工程师。所以他并不适合汽车行业的工程师工作。我父亲买断了他的股份，他最终开始从事核潜艇方面的工作，这正是他擅长的领域。所以对我来说，没有压力要入行商界。
And my plan was to, you know, I work summers, but it's different working summers and working full. I was going to go to business school and figure out what to do the rest of my life. And my dad goes, why aren't you working the dealership full time? A year in sales service, a year in sales and then go to business school, you know, really learned some business experience versus being a car jockey or whatever I was doing. Okay, that probably makes sense. I went to night school. It's hard to work 12 hours a day and then go to night school.
我的计划是，你懂的，我在夏天工作，但在夏天工作和全职工作是不同的。我本打算去商学院，然后找出余生要做什么。我爸爸说，为什么不全职在经销商工作？在销售服务部门待一年，再在销售部门待一年，然后去商学院，你懂的，真正学到一些业务经验，而不只是像我之前那样的汽车服务员工。好的，这可能有道理。我夜间上学，一天工作12个小时然后去夜校真的很辛苦。
I tried for a while and I just stayed in the business. You know, I think probably more from hands on business and from hypothetical and from school, you know, it's I call it the infamous stepping stone that turns permanent. Everyone, everyone says, yeah, it's the stepping stone and no one ever leaves. That's what happens. Yeah. It's funny because I was when I did my undergrad, I was really involved in the marketing aspect of our dealership.
我试了一段时间，最后还是留在了这个行业。你知道，我觉得可能更多是来自实际业务、而非假设和学校，你知道，我称之为臭名昭著的台阶，变成了永久。每个人都说，是一个台阶，从未有人离开。就是发生了这样的事情。很有趣，因为我本科时非常参与我们经销商的营销方面。
I was, you know, uploading pictures to the website and having all that fun. But I know the feeling of, you know, balancing the two and to your point, right? Like, I remember people were like, this is now going to talk about college time. Do people are like a French, like, hey, you should join this, you know, frat and whatnot. And at the time I said, I'll be honest with you. Like it just doesn't make any sense. Like I would much rather be at the dealership now. It's just a much more productive use of my time.
我在网站上上传照片，玩得很开心。但我知道，你懂的，要平衡这两者，正如你所说的。我记得人们说，现在要谈论大学时光了。有人说，要去参加法国兄弟会之类的。当时我说，坦率地讲，这毫无意义。我更愿意在汽车经销店工作，因为那样更有意义，更能提高我的时间利用率。
And, you know, I think it worked out, but it's funny how, you know, that lifestyle, it's especially with the dealership, you know, retail business long hours. I mean, there's always something to do. Did you want to be a dealer? Right. So I know you weren't wasn't even of pressure, but did you want to be a dealer? Did you desire that? Well, there's a lot of pride because of the generations, you know, involved in the dealership.
你知道，我想这样做效果很好，但有趣的是，那种生活方式，特别是在经销商那里，你知道，零售业务并不节省时间。我是说，总是有事情要做。你想当经销商吗？对，我知道你并不感到压力，但是你想当经销商吗？你渴望这样吗？嗯，因为家族代代相传，所以这给人很大的自豪感。
And I knew there was no pressure to do it. I'm sure my dad would like me to have done it. And but because kind of happened, there was a time where he was going to get out of business and I explained that. So we had Oldsmobile and we were one of the biggest Oldsmills dealers in the country. And Oldsmobile is gone. It's gone for a reason. Quality control was not very good. And put me in the service lane and I know and trained me, you know, it's put me out there.
我知道没有压力去做它。我相信我爸爸希望我能做到。但因为某种原因，有一段时间他要退出生意，我进行了解释。所以我们经营 Oldsmobile，我们是全国最大的 Oldsmobile 经销商之一。现在 Oldsmobile 已经消失了。它消失是有原因的，质量控制不是很好。他把我放在了服务岗位，培训了我，让我外出服务。
I was a fourth writer and people, the other writers are pretty smart. They'd let the car go back to me that they didn't want to work on, you know, like a warranty job or something like that. And I had molasses technicians and it was, you know, we sold like 2000 diesel engines. They all blew up, you know, it's just, there was no like tech line like we have. There was no parts inventory like we have now, just some time.
我是第四位作家，其他作家都很聪明。他们会把他们不想做的工作交给我，比如保修工作之类的。我当时负责糖蜜技师，我们卖了大约2000台柴油发动机。所有的发动机都爆炸了，你懂的，那时候不像现在这样有技术支持热线，也没有像现在这样的零部件库存，只是一些时间。
Didn't have all the tools. We had computer command control, a lot of the new emission things. The factory didn't know how to fix these things, transmission issues. It was all happy and all at once. I had really no training. I figured, I think he must know what's going on. And then I went to sales and I was okay sales versus I felt guilty selling these cars into the shop because we sold a lot of cars but didn't have a good CSI. And that was really frustrating for me. You got the point where I saw all the problems.
我们缺乏所有的工具。我们有计算机指令控制，很多新的排放装置。工厂不知道如何修理这些东西，传输问题。一切发生得太快了。我没有接受过真正的培训。我想着，他应该知道发生了什么。然后我去了销售部门，销售还可以，但卖车让我觉得愧疚，因为我们卖了很多车，但客户满意度调查并不好。这让我感到非常沮丧。我开始看到了所有的问题所在。
Now we were making a lot of money. We had Honda too. We were making a lot of money. And that was good but it's not all about money. And I said, I can't handle this anymore. I'm not, get out of the business. So my father goes, you have a month. I said, yeah, I'll give you a month. He goes, how about I say you're in Michigan to General Motors Institute, they have a month long program for dealer sons, dealer daughters.
现在我们赚了很多钱。我们也有本田公司。我们赚了很多钱。虽然这很好，但并不全是关于钱。而我说，我再也无法忍受了。我不想再继续这个生意了。所以我父亲说，你有一个月的时间。我说，好的，我给你一个月。他说，要不我说你去密歇根州的通用汽车学院，那里有一个为经销商子女举办的为期一个月的课程。
And will you do that and then come back? Okay, sure. So this is like the early 80s. It's a recession, a really bad recession. I go to Michigan and unemployment is 23%. And they're fishing in the Flint River for sustenance night and day, not for sport. And half the town is abandoned and boarded up. It's really a horrible time. It's winter time. And I'm like, man, it's pretty bad here. We're doing pretty good back home. At least owed my dad to write a report when he needs to fix his business. So I wrote this to tail report, you know, you need to align the machine. This person's a maybe problem. And I'm going to give it to him and how old were you at the time? I'm 23, maybe 24. And so I go back in this and page reporting is, this is pretty good. Why don't I put you in charge? You implement these things. So yeah, go walk the talk. Okay. So I'm in charge of two parts, farmers, two service farmers in a big body shop. And I fix the things that were a problem to me. So here I am.
你会做到那样然后回来吗？好的，当然。那时是80年代初。当时经济衰退，非常严重的经济衰退。我去密歇根州，失业率达到23%。人们日夜在弗林特河中捕鱼，不是为了娱乐，而是为了生活。城镇中有一半被废弃和封闭。那真是一个可怕的时期。那时是冬天。我想，哇，这里真的很糟糕。我们在家里还算好。至少我应该向我爸爸汇报，告诉他需要如何修复他的生意。所以我写了这个报告，你知道，你需要调整这台机器。这个人可能是一个问题。我打算给他看看。那时你多大了？我23岁，可能是24岁。之后我回去，这个报告被评为很不错。为什么不让你负责呢？你来实施这些事情。因此，我负责管理两个部分，农民们和一个大修车厂。我解决了对我来说是问题的事情。所以，这就是我。
You mentioned the Institute of GM, right? And you mentioned sons and daughters. Why is the car business? Why has it remained a pretty local business? Yes, we have massive groups nowadays, but still for the most part, it seems like local groups really do excel in many ways. And I mean, there's still thousands across the country. As you look at, you know, any other type of retail, it's really moved online. What do you think that what do you think it's driven that? Right? Why is the car business historically a very local kind of family business type deal? Well, you know, I think, I think pride is somewhat growing up into it is another. We're very many businesses under one roof. You can never become an expert at all of them. So there's always something new, something new to learn, some new challenge. We're going to work and get a job like that. We're involved with so many different things from operations to marketing to computer systems to data to real estate to, you know, I mean, there are many jobs like that that require so many different hats.
你提到了通用汽车研究所，对吧？你也提到了子女。为什么汽车行业一直都是一个相当本地化的行业？是的，现在我们有庞大的集团，但大部分时间来看，本地集团在许多方面似乎真的出色。我是说，全国各地仍然有成千上万的这样的集团。当你看看，你知道，任何其他类型的零售，它们真的已经移到了网上。你认为是什么推动了这一点？对吧？为什么汽车行业历来是一种非常本地化的家族企业类型交易？嗯，我认为，我认为，傲慢在其中也是一个原因。我们是很多不同业务集中在一家公司内。你永远无法成为每一个领域的专家。因此，总是有新的东西，新的知识，新的挑战。我们去工作，去找一个这样的工作。我们参与到很多不同的事情中，从运营到营销，从电脑系统到数据，到房地产，你知道，我是说，有很多需要戴很多不同帽子的工作。
And I think it may be, you know, it's nice to have your kids working your dealership and they kind of get attracted to it. And obviously it's a challenging business. If you work hard, you can make a good buck, make a good living and make a real contribution to society. So we're also going to get a job like that. And then you eventually become your own boss. Yeah. So on that note, right? I agree with you that again, so many different elements in, you know, auto retail, but let's talking only about Pohanka for a second. You're in a very crowded market, right? DC market. I mean, just naming a couple of names. Shihi, Rosenthal, Mile One, Darkhears, Orzeman. I mean, there's a lot of players there. What do you think you've done that has allowed your brand, your company to really excel and continue to grow through these years? Well, we have an excellent culture that's been built up over lots of years. I mean, there's three ingredients for success, a good product, good location and good people. Okay. And obviously culture is part of that. So we've really worked hard as we've expanded methodically and smartly to make sure those things were still, those ingredients were there, you know, good location and good product, good people. And I think that's been successful for us. And you know, I can't speak for other families. We do have a lot of car families in Washington. Washington is an affluent market, generally.
我认为，让你的孩子在经销商工作可能是一件不错的事，他们会对此产生兴趣。很明显，这是一个具有挑战性的行业。如果你努力工作，你就可以赚到不少钱，过上好生活，并为社会做出真正的贡献。所以我们也要找这样的工作。然后最终你会成为自己的老板。是的。在这方面，我同意你的观点，你知道，在汽车零售业中有很多不同的因素，但让我们只谈谈Pohanka。你在一个非常拥挤的市场——DC市场。我只是举几个例子，Shihi、Rosenthal、Mile One、Darkhears、Orzeman。那里有很多竞争者。你认为你做了什么让你的品牌、你的公司能够真正脱颖而出，并持续增长这么多年呢？嗯，我们建立了多年的优秀文化。我认为成功的三个要素是好产品、好地段和优秀员工。当然，文化也是其中的一部分。所以我们努力工作，有条不紊地以聪明的方式拓展，确保这些要素依然存在，好地段、好产品、好员工。我认为这对我们是成功的。至于其他家庭，我无法代表他们。在华盛顿有很多汽车家族。总的来说，华盛顿是一个富裕的市场。
You know, some areas aren't as affluent as others. It's an interesting market, it's a very competitive market. But I think it's been a good one for the people who've been here. Now, what's funny, not funny, back in the teens where my grandfather worked, there was an Orzeman and a Rosenthal working in the showroom and became dealers a few years after my grandfather. So this is like the epicenter just exploded, you know, the little. The bohem, the bohem come off you. So this obviously there was this little group that expanded, you know, and we all get along with each other. It's a good thing, competition is friendly competition. We all get along with her. We just want to kill each other and win. Nah, I'm just kidding. We can friendly companies and our managers.
你知道，有些地区并不像其他地方那么富裕。 这是一个有趣的市场，也是一个非常竞争激烈的市场。但我认为对于在这里的人们来说，这是一个很好的市场。 现在，有趣的是，小时候，我的祖父工作的地方有一个奥尔兹曼和一个罗森塔尔在展厅工作，几年后成为了经销商。 所以这就像是爆发的震中，你知道，一点点。 波希姆，波希姆的氛围感受。 所以很显然有这样一个小团体，扩大了规模，我们大家相处得很好。 这是一个好事，竞争是友好的竞争。 我们都和她相处得很好。我们只是想要互相打败对方获胜。 哦，不，我在开玩笑。我们可以友好地合作，和我们的经理们。
You know, here's the. You know, the problem is we really compete with ourselves. The problem is multiple dealerships, generally the dealerships compete with themselves, each other. They should be competing. Here's an example. We should be competing like our stores are competitive with each other. They should be competing with the. You don't beat up your sibling, beat up the neighborhood kid, you know, as a situation. But it's been a good ride and we look forward to a lot more years of this. There will be some challenges ahead of us coming as you know, in the auto industry. Oh yeah, we'll get a lot into legislation, electrification. I have a lot of topics here that I want to discuss.
你知道，这是个问题。你知道，问题是我们实际上是在和自己竞争。问题是多个经销商，通常经销商之间相互竞争。他们应该是在竞争。举个例子，我们应该像我们的商店之间相互竞争一样。他们应该是在竞争。你不会欺负你的兄弟姐妹，而是去欺负邻居的孩子，你知道，这种情况。但这段经历一直很棒，我们期待着未来还有很多年的这种经历。你知道的，作为你们所知，在汽车行业中我们将迎来一些挑战。哦是的，我们将深入研究立法、电动化等等。这里我有很多话题想要讨论。
This episode is brought to you by my very own car dealership guy, Industry Jobboard. CDGjobs.com, my industry job board connecting the best talent and automotive with the best companies, will remain absolutely free for CDG listeners to post and fill available roles at their companies. This free job board is for anyone in automotive, vendors, dealers, lenders, manufacturers, auto tech, everyone. Already, over 100 companies have posted open positions, including lithium motors, recurrent credit acceptance, Vero's credit, cars commerce, shift digital plug, and all of that.
本集节目由我自己的汽车经销商伙伴Industry Jobboard赞助。CDGjobs.com是我的行业职位招聘网站，致力于连接最优秀的人才与最优秀的汽车公司，对于CDG的听众来说，发布和填补公司内的空缺职位完全免费。这个免费的招聘网站适用于汽车领域的任何人，包括供应商、经销商、贷款公司、制造商、汽车技术从业者等。目前已有100多家公司发布了开放职位，包括锂电动力汽车、Recurrent信用接受、维诺的信用、汽车商务、Shift数码插座等等。
Plug full path, Westlake trade pending, you get the point. The best part is that when these companies hire through CDGjobs.com, they are hiring the most informed candidates in the marketplace. So don't hesitate. You can add your open roles today by visiting CDGjobs.com or clicking the link in the show notes below. That's CDGjobs.com.
插入完整路径，Westlake交易正在进行中，你明白了吧。最好的部分是，当这些公司通过CDGjobs.com招聘时，他们正在招聘市场上最了解行情的候选人。所以不要犹豫。您可以通过访问CDGjobs.com或点击下方节目说明中的链接添加您的空缺职位。就在CDGjobs.com。
Tell me a little bit about behind the scenes. Like what does your role at Bohenka look like today? And specifically, I want to know how do you allocate your time? Like what does a week or a day in your life look like nowadays? Look, ours is a team effort. I couldn't do all this myself. And we have a lot of long term staff that now have ownership in the dealership. In the past year and a half, two years, I've taken on the NEDA role, which is a bigger role shepherd in the industry.
请向我介绍一下幕后情况。比如说，你在Bohenka的角色是什么样的？具体来说，我想了解一下你是如何分配时间的？像你现在的一周或一天是什么样子的呢？听着，我们是团队合作。我一个人无法完成所有工作。我们拥有很多长期员工，现在他们在经销商中拥有所有权。在过去一年半或两年里，我承担了NEDA的角色，这是一个更大的行业引导者的角色。
And here's the background of NEDA. I'm a 2020 through chairman is that my grandfather died when my dad was 29. He was pretty much riding the dealership. And he wasn't really equipped to run the dealership. In fact, back then, we had also built, they had a dealership three blocks away, saw in the same brand. Talk about competition. My dad at 29 was not really equipped to run the dealership. He didn't have quite all the experience he needed, but he found NEDA was located just down the street like three blocks. At that time, NEDA headquarters, three blocks. We were located on 23, eight blocks in the White House. And eight days were down the street. Scovered NEDA took classes, joined the third 20 group of the United States.
这是NEDA的背景故事。我是2020年度主席。我的爷爷去世的时候我爸爸才29岁。他几乎一直在经营经销商，但实际上他并没有真正具备经营经销商的能力。事实上，那时我们还建了一家经销商，距离几个街区之外，卖的还是同一个品牌。可以想象竞争有多激烈。我爸爸29岁的时候并没有完全具备经营经销商的经验，但他找到了NEDA，就在附近三个街区。当时，NEDA总部就在附近三个街区。我们位于23号，距离白宫有八个街区。NEDA就在街对面，我爸爸参加了NEDA的课程，并加入了美国第三个20人团体。
And that really helped him to survive that period. So he wanted to get back, became a director, later president of NEDA in 76. So I kind of grew up with NEDA. We've a 50, 60 year relationship with them. So that's kind of NEDA connection, which is probably what we talked about. What's my average day? Look, we got to sell cars and we got service cars. Okay. And that's the root of our business. And if we don't do that, nothing else works. So what's different between working, say, for your own business, a dealer and say a public company? Okay. Or say outside the dealership, you're working for a big firm.
这真的帮助他渡过那个时期。所以他想要回来，成为一名导演，后来在76年成为NEDA的主席。所以我可以说我和NEDA一起成长。我们和他们有50、60年的关系。这就是NEDA的联系，这可能就是我们谈论的。我的平均一天是什么样的？看，我们必须销售汽车，我们还要维修汽车。好的。这是我们业务的根基。如果我们做不到这一点，其他所有事情都无法运转。那么，在为自己的公司、经销商或公共公司工作之间有什么不同呢？或者说在经销店之外，为大公司工作有什么不同呢？
A lot of those people work for a big firm. His name's not on the building. They figure, what am I going to do when I get off work today? The dealers think about when they wake up is, I got to get something done today. Okay. So you got to apply yourself and get something done. So every day I want to apply something, get something done or something moving that's not moving. And a lot of it's educating your people, you know, education, so giving them the tools to get the job done because I can't do it. It's like a coach. I talked to managers, said, look at the football.
很多人在一家大公司工作。他的名字没有挂在大楼上。他们想，今天下班后我要做什么呢？经销商们醒来想的第一件事就是，我今天必须要完成一些事情。好的。所以你必须全力以赴，做点什么。所以每天我都想要有所努力，完成或推动一些事情。其中很多是教育你的员工，你知道，教育，给他们完成工作的工具，因为我不能亲自去做。就像一位教练。我和经理们谈到，看看足球比赛。
The coach can't make the tackles. He can't go out and tackle. Sometimes they try to get in trouble. They can't. They got to teach people how to run the play. So you got to run the play. The problem with, you know, what's interesting, I read something, you know, in the United States, we do horrible and standardized testing. We're like 25th in science and math. It's horrible. Yeah. Like something like 90% or 95% of the major discoveries come from America, the pharmaceutical medicines, you know, Google, Apple, you know, Microsoft, they're all American invention.
教练不能进行铲球。他不能上场铲球。有时他们试图惹麻烦，但无法成功。他们必须教导他人如何运行战术。所以你必须执行战术。你知道的问题是，我读到一些有趣的东西，就是在美国，我们的标准化测试表现糟糕。我们在科学和数学方面排名第25。这太糟糕了。是的。大约90%或95%的重大发现都来自美国，比如制药药物，谷歌，苹果，微软，它们都是美国的发明。
There aren't similar companies. They're look a lot around the world. Now why is that? Why are we 25th in standardized test scores? Because we're entrepreneurialists. We're entrepreneurial. The next big discovery is somebody's garage, you know, and other countries are not. We don't have a caste system. You're not limited. You're limited by your bill, by your desire, by your knowledge. And the carb is like that too. And so we got to get something done every day, you know, and that's what it takes. So where do you apply yourself to do that? You know, we have a lot, again, we have a lot of 20, 30 year team members now have ownership and dealerships. They've earned their place under the sun. And it's basically called the ownership mentality. You know, shouldn't I think you got spread their wealth and try to help people to grow and take responsibility like their owners themselves. So I think we've been fairly successful at doing that. Of course, what binds us is the culture, you know. And I have other family members in the business and long term, I have a long term partner going back to really late 70s with us. So it's a good arrangement, successful for us. You know, $0.6 billion company was 1,600 employees. But you know what, it's one car at a time. Take care of every customer and try to get your people the training and the tools they need to get the job done.
没有类似的公司。他们在世界各地都很留心。那么为什么呢？为什么我们在标准化考试中排名第25位？因为我们是企业家。我们富有创业精神。下一个重大发现可能就在某人的车库里，而其他国家却没有这样的情况。我们没有种姓制度。你没有受到限制。你受限于自己的账单、欲望和知识。汽车也是如此。所以我们必须每天都做些事情，这就是所需的。所以你要把自己应用在哪里？我们已经有很多20、30年的团队成员现在拥有了经销权。他们在太阳下赢得了自己的位置。这基本上被称为所有权意识。你认为你应该传播他们的财富，并帮助人们成长并承担责任，就像他们自己是业主一样。我认为我们在做到这一点上相当成功。当然，团结我们的是文化。我在企业中还有其他家庭成员以及一个长期的合作伙伴，我们可以追溯到70年代末。所以这对我们来说是一个好安排，对我们来说非常成功。你知道，这是一个60亿美元的公司，有1600名员工。但是你知道吗，每次只能处理一辆汽车。照顾每个客户，并尽力为你的员工提供培训和他们完成工作所需的工具。
You mentioned one car at a time. You know, someone once told me, which I love to set lines, they said like averages are dangerous because when you look at an average in a retail business, right? You might have a, you know, a 1% failure rate, but that 1% is that's real people. That's that's actual experiences. And so it's, you know, we set like one of our core values and cardioship guy, which is, you know, focused down to the last basis point, because to your point, it's one car at a time. And you know, really focusing on every single customer, every single opportunity, you know, you look at a whole holistic average, someone's going to be disappointed. So I think that's a really important line. Let's go back to the mutation. The problem, it's an advantage for America. Promise our staff will mutate every day away from proven steps that work. You know, so we all were trying to shortcut find a better way, but they get off, off track. They don't run the play. So a lot of it is continue to help them to see here's the benefit. Here's why you do it this way. And it's hard to, it's like hurting cats sometimes. That's the challenge of our business. It gives us these great inventions and things, but also causes people to be distracted and not run the play correctly. And then that's, I think the frustration for me, because you can teach them, but you got to keep an eye on, make sure they continue to do it like they should. They will yield the best results for them, you know, and the customer.
你提到一次只能处理一辆车。你知道，有人曾告诉我，我喜欢设定标准，他们说像平均数是危险的，因为当你在零售业看平均数时，对吧？你可能有一个1%的失败率，但那1%是真实的人。那是真实的经历。因此，你知道，我们制定了我们的核心价值之一，就是专注到最后一分位点，因为正如你所说，一次只能处理一辆车。你知道，真的要专注于每一个客户，每一个机会，你看整体的平均数，总会有人感到失望。我认为这是一个非常重要的标准。让我们回到变异。这是美国的一个优势。承诺我们的员工将每天远离已被证实有效的步骤。你知道，我们都试图着捷径找到更好的方法，但他们偏离了轨道。他们没有按照计划进行。所以其中很多就是继续帮助他们看到这样做的好处。为什么要这样做。有时候这就像是赶鸡儿一样难以控制。这是我们业务的挑战。它给我们带来了这些伟大的发明和事物，但也导致人们分心，不能正确执行计划。我认为这让我感到沮丧，因为你可以教导他们，但你必须密切关注，确保他们继续按照应该的方式去做。这将给他们和客户带来最好的结果。
I want to pivot to the future of this industry, right? Legislation. Because there's a lot of stuff happening right now. Just a table set at a very high level, right? Most people listening to this already know that the FTC introduced this thing, something called the car's rule, which stands for combating auto retail scams. Our new rule meant to, you know, set all types of new, just changes to deal shape processes, advertisements and whatnot. You, I'm sure you could, you know, speak a lot more knowledgeable to this than I can. Before we even get into the crux of what this means for the industry and what's where, you know, where we're headed, why is the industry gone to this point? Why is the FTC, you know, coming up with a rule that has the word scam in it with respect to, you know, the, like, what is going on, right? Give us the land of the land here. Well, you know, something I say is they think we're ripping people off. It's sort of how we're doing it.
我想转向该行业的未来，对吧？立法。因为现在发生了很多事情。这只是在非常高的层次上设立的一个桌子，对吧？大多数听到这个消息的人都已经知道FTC推出了这个东西，叫作汽车规则，这代表打击汽车零售骗局。我们的新规则意味着要制定各种新的变化，改变着销售流程、广告等等。我相信你能比我更了解这个。在我们深入讨论这对该行业意味着什么以及未来走向之前，为什么这个行业会走到这一步呢？为什么FTC会提出一个规则中带有欺诈一词的规定，针对这个行业，发生了什么，对吧？给我们解释一下吧。嗯，你知道，我觉得他们认为我们在欺骗人们。这可能是我们的做法。
You know, here's, here's the problem with the car business. It's not a problem. You know, a lot of our sales are negotiated and a lot of people, I don't want to pay more than the next person. And that causes people on ease. What's a good deal? A good deal is a state of mind. You know, some people have the most dissatisfaction. We got the best deal because they don't know when they would be satisfied. So a lot of this drives this negotiated process drives a lot of things, but look during COVID, what's happened in COVID, we had greater price, price transparency. We were willing to quote a price. We had much more confidence because of the shortages.
你知道，汽车行业的问题在于这一点。其实并不是问题。你知道吗，很多销售都是通过谈判达成的，很多人不愿意比其他人支付更多。这让人感到不安。什么才算是好交易呢？好交易是一种心态。有些人最不满意的时候说他们得到了最好的交易，因为他们不知道什么时候才会满意。因此，很多情况下这种谈判过程推动了很多事情，但是在COVID期间，COVID发生了什么，我们看到了更高的价格透明度。我们愿意报出一个价格。由于供应短缺，我们更加自信。
Here's the car. We knew there were fewer cars available than demand. And the consumer, you use car prices, we're not more than new cars, 40%. And consumer satisfaction was very good in that period. So was dealer profitability. The deal was probably better for the consumer during COVID than before COVID is that they had a trade. They have so much higher in value. And so that price transparency was a good thing. But now we get with more supply. You know, a lot of people are saying, if I can give you this deal, I mean, it's going back to that whole process of maybe over promising under delivering, you know, which can happen. And most people are not bad actors in the car business. Most people really do a great job. I think the government doesn't understand our job.
这是汽车。我们知道可供的汽车比需求少。消费者，您使用汽车价格，我们比新车的价格低不超过40%。消费者满意度在那个时期非常好。经销商的利润也很好。在COVID期间，对消费者来说交易可能比COVID之前更好，因为他们有一部分更高价值的交易。因此价格透明度是一件好事。但现在我们有更多供应。许多人都说，如果我能给你这个交易，我是指回到那个可能过度承诺且交付不足的整个过程，你知道这可能会发生。在汽车行业，大多数人并不是坏人. 大多数人真的做得很好。我认为政府不理解我们的工作。
This rule is a horrible rule. The FTC, the fact they have scanned in the name, there's no protections in this rule that don't already exist. But the problem is this $50,000 penalty for every violation of the rule, this rule is, it's basically can't be implemented properly. Well, can you explain like what cannot be implemented? Like why do you think, I mean, it's already something that's more or less been done, but why can't it be implemented? We offered a 365 page rebuttal to it. They only gave us 60 days to do that. They would not extend. Usually they extend for a rule like this. They did not extend, would not. We had a 365 page rebuttal. They took out some of them are ownerous parts of it through like volunteer protection products. You needed four additional disclosures besides what we already have.
这项规则是一项可怕的规则。联邦贸易委员会，他们已经扫描了名字，这项规则中没有任何既存的保护措施。但问题在于，对该规则的每次违规处以5万美元的罚款，这项规则基本上无法得到妥善实施。嗯，你能解释一下为什么无法实施吗？我是说，这基本上是已经实现过的事情，但为什么不能实施呢？我们对此提出了365页的反驳意见。他们只给了我们60天的时间来做这件事。他们通常会为这样的规定延长期限，但他们没有延长，也没有愿意延长。我们提出了365页的反驳意见。他们删除了其中一些繁琐的部分，比如志愿者保护产品。除了我们已经有的披露信息外，还需要额外的四项披露。
And it took that away because it was really, you know, there was no supporting it. But one example would be when someone asks a price for a car, you must give them the final price at that time. Example, your road testing with a customer, because how much is this car? You got to give them the final price at that point. You may not know that all the particulars in your trade, what's their credit like? You know, an example. So and the penalties are so severe, I think this opens up to enterprising class action attorneys just to rip us apart. Again, there are no protections in this bill that don't already exist. And we have to keep every communication with us and the consumer, you have to retain for years every text, every email, every phone conversation. You know, it's really a setup.
这让它变得很难处理，因为实际上，并没有支持它的理由。举个例子，当有人询问一辆车的价格时，你必须立即给出最终价格。比如说，与客户共同试驾时，有人问这辆车多少钱？你必须立即告诉他们最终价格。你可能并不知道所有交易细节，他们的信用情况如何？这是一个例子。而且如果违反规定，惩罚非常严厉，我认为这会引发一些能干的集体诉讼律师对我们进行袭击。再次强调，这项法案中没有任何现有的保护措施。我们必须保留与消费者的每次沟通，每一条短信，每一封电子邮件，每一次电话谈话，都要保存数年。这真的是一个陷阱。
And you know, we're fighting in the Fifth Circuit in Texas. Now, the Fifth Circuit doesn't not like overreach of the regulatory state. We don't know how it's going to go. But you know, I think we're offering a vigorous defense. We have a great litigator with great success doing the FTC. We don't like to sue people, but we have to because this is defending the car industry. There's no need for this bill. And it's really unimplementable for a lot of reasons. You know, I believe that in life, like when something, there's a reason that this is a focal point for a government agency, right? It could be, you know, constituents are kind of bringing it up as this is, you know, something that's unfair, whatever, maybe if you're being, imagine you weren't a dealer right now and you were the FTC, right? Or you were someone on that side. Where do you think there's truth to this? Or again, I said, why did we get to this point?
你知道，在德克萨斯第五巡回法院我们正在进行辩论。现在，第五巡回法院不喜欢监管机构的过度干预。我们不知道结果会如何。但我认为我们正在提供有力的辩护。我们有一位在FTC取得巨大成功的优秀诉讼律师。我们不喜欢起诉别人，但我们必须这样做，因为这是在捍卫汽车行业。这项法案是没有必要的，而且出于很多原因真的无法实施。你知道，在生活中，当某件事成为政府机构关注的焦点时，肯定有原因的，对吧？可能是选民们提出了这是某种不公平的事情，或者如果你现在不是经销商而是FTC，或者你在那一边的某人，你认为这里有真相吗？或者再说，我说了，我们为什么会走到这一步？
Like how could something like this have been avoided or be avoided in the future? Is it a customer experience issue? Is it a branding issue? Well, but look who the FTC is taking on. They're taking on a lot of big players, you know, Google, you know, is it a money grab? Is it a money grab fair enough? Look, Lena Khan is running the FTC. She's a young person from Yale. I think she's basically following somewhere philosophical beliefs about how things operate. But when you're a young person, you may not know all the rules, how life operates, you know, not to excuse anything. It's a realistic view of industry, you know. She's taken on a lot of players and lost a lot of times. Hopefully she'll lose again. And I think what's, you know, the problem with government, you know, we need government. We need a good government. You know, there's certain things that you do like, you know, education and sewers or work. You know, and that type of thing, public, you know, protecting people. But they also can try to run industry. And we have to have certain protections for industry for overreach and people are doing bad things.
这样的事情怎么会被避免或在未来被避免呢？这是一个客户体验问题吗？是一个品牌问题吗？嗯，看看FTC正在对付谁。他们正在对付许多大公司，你知道，像谷歌，这是为了钱吗？对于钱这样的问题，公平吗？看，莱娜·卡恩正在管理FTC。她是一位来自耶鲁大学的年轻人。我觉得她基本上是在遵循某种关于事情如何运转的哲学信仰。但当你是一个年轻人时，可能不知道所有规则，生活运转的方式，这并不是为任何事情找借口。这是对行业的现实看法。她挑战了很多玩家，并且许多次失败。希望她会再次失败。我认为政府存在问题，我们需要政府，需要一个良好的政府。有一些事情我们需要像教育、污水处理、公共设施保护人们这样的事情。但他们也可能试图控制行业。我们必须为产业的过度干预和人们做坏事提供一定的保护。
Those rules already exist. But some people want to re-engineer society in the new view of how they see the world. And that's wrong, you know. I think basically our system is the best system in the world. The Korea has the most creativity. But you can't implement, a lot of government officials have never worked in the private business. They've all worked in academia or government. They lack a certain understanding of the forces that make our success, our society successful, how it works. It's not unrestrained capitalism. We have controlled capitalism, you know. But you can't take a textbook and try to implement that on the world. And that's what she's lean a con is done. She's basically trying to implement her view of the world on everybody else. But we all have a view too. And there need to be personal protections against overreach. But some things, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. And this is a very damaging bill. It will add two hours.
这些规则已经存在。但是一些人想根据他们看世界的新观点重新设计社会。这是错误的，你知道。我认为基本上我们的系统是世界上最好的系统。韩国有最多的创造力。但是你不能实施，很多政府官员从未在私营企业工作过。他们都在学术界或政府工作过。他们缺乏对造就我们成功的力量、我们社会成功的运作方式的理解。这不是无政府主义。我们有受控的资本主义，你知道。但你不能拿一本教科书然后试图将它实施在这个世界上。这正是她所做的。她基本上试图将她的世界观强加给每个人。但我们每个人也有自己的看法。需要个人保护来防止过度扩张。但有些事情，好意的道路常常通向地狱。这是一个非常有害的法案。它将增加两小时。
Independent study shows it will add two hours to the vehicle purchase and $35 billion in cost. If we do anything, we should reduce the time it takes to sell a car and reduce the cost to sell a car. But this is not a good thing for the consumer. It's certainly not a good thing for the industry. It doesn't fix anything that's broken. It's a fixed looking for a solution looking for a problem. So where are the manufacturers in the picture? If I'm Nissan or Toyota or whoever and I know that my franchisees are going to be potentially have a prolonged process here for selling a car, I'm pissed off. That sucks for me. It's a reflection of my brand.
一项独立研究表明，这将使购车时间延长两个小时，并增加350亿美元的成本。如果我们要做些什么，我们应该缩短销售车辆的时间，降低销售车辆的成本。但这对消费者来说并不是一件好事。对行业来说，这绝对不是一件好事。这并不能修复任何问题。这是为了寻找解决方案而解决问题。那么制造商在这个问题中的立场如何？如果我是日产或丰田或其他制造商，我知道我的特许经营商可能会有一个延长的销售过程，我会很生气。这让我很难受。这反映了我的品牌形象。
Where are the manufacturers? Who are not directly involved, but they have weighed in. Many of them have weighed in supporting us. And we think we have an excellent case. And we're working with bills in Congress too to defund it as well. That's another way. But obviously our supporters are probably in the minority in Congress and capital here right now. But there's somewhat bipartisan approach to this. No solution is to just to defund it so it can't be enforced. Yeah, I mean, I can't help but think. You purchased in your NADS speech, you mentioned that you purchased a test line and you were looking to test out the experience. And you went, you physically picked it up. And I think one of the things that you said, which I found very interesting, was that you picked it up at this warehouse, that plywood on the walls. And but you said the quiet part out loud, which was that I was thinking when you were experiencing this, which was that you weren't, you were observing the experience. But what you had said is that, hey, it just seems as though clearly manufacturers don't respect the retail process or maybe respect it on the right word, but they don't value it, the retail process. And so when I see stuff like this happening, then I wonder, okay, you know, is it in the long-term best interest on manufacturers for the retail experience to deteriorate? I mean, again, I don't want to be too conspiratorial here, but I'm just trying to kind of put all the pieces together, right?
制造商们在哪里？有些制造商虽然并没有直接参与，但他们已表态支持我们。许多制造商都表示支持我们。我们认为我们有一个很好的案例。我们也在国会与议员合作，试图通过取消资金来阻止这种情况。这也是一种方式。显然，我们在国会和首都的支持者可能目前是少数派。但在这个问题上存在一种趋向于跨党派的合作。解决问题的方法就是取消资金，这样就无法实施了。是的，我不禁想到。你在你的NADS演讲中提到你购买了一个测试产品线，并且你打算测试一下经验。你亲自取回了它。我觉得你说的一件事很有趣，那就是你在有裁判板的墙壁的仓库里拿取了它。但你说出了心里的想法，你觉得当时的经历，你在观察经验。但你说的是，嘿，显然制造商不尊重零售流程，或许尊重不是正确的词，但他们不重视零售流程。所以当我看到这种情况发生时，我会想，好吧，长期来看，制造商对零售经验恶化是否符合最佳利益？再次强调，我不想太阴谋论，我只是试图把所有事情连接起来，对吧？
We're coming off a couple of years where there have been murmurs of direct to consumer and stuff like that. You know, folks back in Scout, we've we all heard the stuff that Ford had said. So like, what are the real intentions for manufacturers here? What end game do they want in the next decade? Well, I remember everything's like a pendulum, you know, swings one way and it swings back the other way. That's just how life is. You know, a lot of people forget why things didn't work. They try them again. You know, I mean, the definition of insanity is trying the same thing and expecting different results, you know, which is frustrating sometimes. Look, I think there's a lot of common ground between manufacturers and dealers. We basically want the same thing. We would take care of customers to sell out of cars. So why don't we cooperate more? And I also see the best results or when there's a collect for both. It's when there's a collaborative relationship between the manufacturer and the dealer.
我们经历了几年，听到了有关直接面向消费者以及诸如此类的传言。你知道，在Scout回去的人们，我们都听说了Ford说过的那些话。那么，制造商在这里的真正意图是什么？他们在未来十年内想要达到什么终极目标呢？我记得一切都像一个钟摆，你知道，一边摆动，然后又摆回另一边。生活就是这样。很多人忘记了事情为什么不起作用，他们会再次尝试。我是说，疯狂的定义就是尝试同样的事情却期待不同的结果，这有时令人沮丧。我认为制造商和经销商之间有很多共同点。基本上我们都希望同样的事情。我们都希望照顾客户来销售汽车。那么为什么我们不更多地合作呢？我还看到最好的结果是在双方都获利时产生的，也就是说制造商和经销商之间有合作关系时。
And when there's not, generally the results aren't so good. So maybe that's the reason why they're not so good because they're not collaborative. Now, I don't know how to make a car. I have no idea. It's very complicated. And selling a car is complicated too. And so we missed like, I know the manufacturer gets really upset. I've heard the gift set when someone comes into a meeting, you know, that white Safari I ordered and never got, you know, in like one car. I mean, I'm surely, you know, Silverado. I'm sure they wanted to make it. There was some good reason why they couldn't. There was some parts supply or some issue. But you know, get, dealer gets pissed off based on a singular car versus they don't understand all the steps it takes to sell a car.
当没有合作时，通常结果不太好。也许这就是为什么结果不太好的原因，因为它们没有合作。现在，我不知道如何制造汽车。我一点也不了解。这非常复杂。销售汽车也很复杂。所以我们错过了，我知道制造商会很不高兴。我听说在会议上有人来了，你知道，我订购的白色Safari汽车，但从未收到，你知道，就像一辆汽车。我肯定，你知道，Silverado。我敢肯定他们想制造它。肯定有某个很好的理由他们没有制造。可能是一些零部件供应或问题。但是，经销商只因为一个汽车而生气，而不了解销售汽车所需的所有步骤。
I think it's just like it takes 15 minutes. No, it's very complicated because there's a trade, credit issues. There's a lot of credit issues. And direct sales, yes, it seems like here's the thing with Tesla. I bought Tesla. Why? There's a big buzz about Tesla. And I've been driving EVs for a while. I need to know everything there is about it because it's a happening thing. And people talk big about Tesla. Well, some go buy one. So I ordered one online and just, you know, it was this Tesla's Tesla that they're so good at this and so good at that. Well, my car came in, it's home in a Tuesday. It came in take every Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. I'm on Capitol Hill, I'm in for meeting meetings. The last window is like five 30. And the place is close to my home. I said, I can't come in those three days. I said, if you came in three days, it'll sell someone else. And they did. I'm like, Oh, okay. Let's learn experience. So I ordered all the one. I lost my $200 order fee. So no one came in. And I get noticed on a Tuesday car come, just come in, take every Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.
我觉得就像需要15分钟那样简单。不，实际上很复杂，因为涉及到贸易和信用问题。有很多信用问题。而直销，是的，看起来就是关于特斯拉的事情。我买了特斯拉。为什么？因为特斯拉有很大的声音。我一直在开电动汽车。我需要了解一切关于它的东西，因为它是件时髦的事情。人们都滔滔不绝地谈论特斯拉。好吧，一些人就去买了。所以我在网上订购了一辆，你知道的，这辆特斯拉在这方面非常擅长、那方面也非常擅长。嗯，我的车在一个星期二送到了家中。然后却在星期三、星期四、星期五的那几天没来。我在国会山，参加会议。最后一个窗口是5点30分。并且地点离我家很近。我说，我这几天都无法赶过来。我说，如果您这几天都不来，它会卖给别人。结果他们卖给了别人。我就想，哦，好吧，这是个教训。所以我又订购了一辆。我损失了200美元的订购费用。所以没人来了。然后我在星期二收到通知，车来了，然后在星期三、星期四、星期五别再来。
I said, I'm in Europe. I'm at the European Artillery Convention. I say, I can't possibly come into a Monday. You know, I come back that Sunday because you must come between 12 PM 15 PM and Monday, take a little 15 minute window. I'm like, well, now the price went down 3000 between the two. And I didn't order the 20 inch wheel. So I'm about $5,000 a head. So the consumer always wins. And I take living from a warehouse, through a loading dock, a warehouse with plywood on the walls. And I'm like, wow, what dawned on me is that all my deliveries don't look at plywood on the walls. I mean, they're really nice. And if the factory thinks we were cost, they made it that way. Obviously, Tesla thinks putting money into their software into their charging infrastructure is more important than their retail facilities.
我说，我在欧洲。我在欧洲火炮大会上。我说，我不可能在星期一过来。你知道，我那个星期天回来，因为你必须在星期一的12 PM到15 PM之间前来，只有一个15分钟的时间窗口。我就说，现在价格在这两者之间降低了3000美元。而且我也没有订购20英寸的轮毂。所以我每个头要多花大约5000美元。所以消费者总是赢。我走过一个仓库，通过一个装卸区，一间墙上有胶合板的仓库。我就想，哇，让我想起来的是，我的所有交付都没有墙上的胶合板。我的意思是，它们真的很漂亮。如果工厂觉得我们的成本太高，他们就会这样做。显然，特斯拉认为把钱投入他们的软件和充电基础设施比投入零售设施更重要。
So I've learned a lot. I like, I like the Tesla. And I, you know, it's not everything is good about it. But there are a lot of good things. But you know what, no one can snow me now. The Tesla does this and Tesla's like, let me tell you, you brought one? No, let me tell you my experience. They can't snow me anymore. And the thing is the manufacturer, everyone's chasing Tesla. Now, Charles Lindbergh was first fly solo across Atlantic who was second. We don't know. No one knows. You could look it up. Same way, Tesla had a window. We did a good job.
所以我学到了很多。我喜欢特斯拉。你知道的，它并非完美无缺。但是有很多优点。但你知道吗，现在没有人能糊弄我了。特斯拉就是这样，特斯拉说，你买了一辆？不，让我告诉你我的经历。他们再也糊弄不了我了。而且制造商，每个人都在追赶特斯拉。现在，查尔斯·林德伯格第一个独自飞越大西洋，第二个是谁呢？我们不知道。没有人知道。你可以查一下。同样，特斯拉也有过辉煌时刻。我们做得很好。
But they're running out of orders. They've lowered their price six times in the past year. And that's causing a real problem because all their owners are now under water by a lot of money. Your car's worth less, you know, by lowering that price, it lowers the price of their trades. So no one can follow that path. That window is closed in terms of capitalization. There's no magic of direct sales. Look at Ben Fast, look at Pisker. They're going through dealers because the direct order doesn't work when they're not off orders. And Tesla lowered the price because they're running out of orders. So, you know, look, it's a competitive market. It's a big market. A lot of rooms for selling cars different ways and a lot of rooms for a lot of players. But I think we found a lot of things in common with manufacturers under my term with NEDA. I think we can help solve key issues by working together if we can talk about it, find common ground, you know. And there's a number of initiatives I started, which I'm going to see through that could be beneficial to the industry in that way. And not everybody thinks that way. But again, we should look for things we have. And look, we got to defend ourselves, dealers, unfair actions from manufacturers. But many of them work well with their dealers. And we've got to encourage that kind of relationship, I think.
但是他们的订单越来越少了。过去一年他们已经降低了价格六次。这造成了一个真正的问题，因为所有的车主们都亏损了很多钱。你的车价值下降了，你知道的，通过降低价格，也降低了他们的交易价格。所以没有人会选择那条路。从资金化的角度来看，这个窗口已经关闭了。直接销售没有什么魔法。看看本·快速，看看皮斯克。他们通过经销商进行销售，因为当没有订单时，直接下单就不起作用。特斯拉降价是因为订单越来越少了。所以，你知道的，这是一个竞争激烈的市场。这是一个大市场。有很多销售汽车的不同方式，也有很多不同的参与者。但我认为在与NEDA合作时，我们找到了很多共同点。我认为我们可以通过一起努力解决关键问题，如果我们能够坦诚交流，找到共同点的话。我开始了一些行动，我将继续下去，这可能有益于行业。并不是每个人都这样想。但再次强调，我们应该寻找我们所拥有的东西。我们必须捍卫自己，防范制造商的不公平行为。但许多制造商与他们的经销商合作得很好。我们必须鼓励这种关系，我认为。
What do you think Tesla does well? What do you think about their sales process? Is there anything that you believe is superior to the dealership model? Well, they don't have this way. They don't have many models. And there's very few options. I was kind of surprised. The only free color was white. So I'm driving a white Tesla's cheap. Red cost 2000. So everything's all a car. You got to get the steps. And I bought all the steps that I needed to really experience them. Simplicity. Well, look, no, the manufacturer has just a couple of models or a couple features that you can buy. I think they found a way to produce cars efficiently and high volume.
你认为特斯拉做得好吗？你对他们的销售流程有什么看法？有什么你认为优于经销商模式的地方吗？嗯，他们不是这样的。他们没有很多款车型。选择也很少。我有点惊讶。唯一免费的颜色是白色。所以我开的是一辆“白色特斯拉”，很便宜。红色要花2000美元。所以一切都是车。你得按步就班。我买了所有我需要真正体验它们的步骤。简洁。看吧，没有其他颜色可以选择，只有几款车型或几种功能可以购买。我认为他们找到了一种高效生产汽车和大批量生产的方法。
I thought one thing that's really interesting is the little details. Some have thought of the little tales of manufacturing. One is the sun visor. It's kind of hard to keep it connected on that clip. Always false. They have a magnet there. Someone thought, let's have a magnet. So you get the visor and you're supposed to go, it's clips right in. And there's a warning tag on the bottom of the visor that talks about your airbag. They put theirs on the top of the visor. And someone thought about that. So they're thinking about things. And it's kind of interesting.
我觉得有趣的一点是这些小细节。有些人考虑到了制造过程中的小故事。比如遮阳板。很难让它稳固地连接在夹子上。会经常松动。他们在那里放了一个磁铁。有人想到，让我们放一个磁铁。所以你拿到遮阳板，应该放在夹子上，很容易固定。遮阳板底部有一个警示标签，讲述了气囊的事情。他们把标签放在了遮阳板的顶部。有人考虑到了这一点。所以他们在思考一些小细节。这种品牌的设计让人觉得很有趣。
But I have an ID for own now. I have a couple of those. I act five. And I'm comparing apples with apples, what's good and what's not. I mean, there's some things, no lights in it. There's other other, it's complex. You got to run the wipers as a horrible system. And what's really good is the downloads. I've had a lot of updates, maybe one a month. OTA. So you still have your Tesla? Oh, yeah. Sure. Absolutely. I like, I like their over there updates. I think I'm going to write an article on this. You know, people get tired of their car. So once they buy the car, come to the factory door, that's the car you're going to get with over the updates, you can update and change the functionality of a car over time.
但是现在我有了自己的个人ID。我有好几个。我表现得像一个五岁的孩子。我在比较好的和不好的东西。我的意思是，有些东西没有灯。有些复杂。你必须把雨刮器开着，这是一个糟糕的系统。而真正好的是下载。我有很多更新，每个月可能有一个。OTA。所以你还有特斯拉吗？哦，是的。当然。我喜欢他们的更新。我想写一篇关于这个的文章。你知道，人们对他们的车厌烦了。所以一旦他们购买了车，到了工厂门口，那就是你会得到的车，通过更新，您可以随着时间更改车辆的功能。
I think that might cause people to like their car longer. You know, it might change the buying cycle. You know, because if your style and looks pretty good and you're pretty like the car, if you're getting improvements through OTA's, that's in performance, how things operate, buying additional features, that's difficult. It could change the buying. You know, cars last longer, it could change the buying habits of the universe. So I now the VW has OTA's work as well. You know, what's funny is, uh, Honda's coming out with EV and I asked to head of service for for Honda. Will it do OTA's and he couldn't even know. So I mean, oh, I think I'm ahead of some people. That's not good. You know, he wasn't even sure. And I see the being over the updates. Important now, there's two aspects of that. One is that dealers should participate in over the year of subscription accessory sales to manufacturers. See, they're looking, they need to find new profit centers, the manufacturers to sell people things that they can do that with over their updates, uh, that you can buy performance enhancements or other features.
我认为这可能会让人们更长时间地喜欢他们的汽车。你知道，这可能会改变购买周期。因为如果你的款式和外观很好，你对车很喜欢，如果通过OTA的改进，不管是在性能上，操作方式上，购买额外功能上，那就会变得困难。这可能会改变购买习惯。你知道，汽车的使用寿命更长了，这可能会改变宇宙的购买习惯。我知道大众现在也有OTA的工作。你知道，有趣的是，本田要推出电动汽车，我问了本田的售后服务负责人。它是否会进行OTA更新，他甚至都不知道。我是说，我觉得我比一些人领先了。那不太好。你知道，他甚至都不确定。对我来说，更新变得越来越重要了。有两个方面是重要的。一个是，经销商应该参与制造商的年度订阅附件销售。他们需要寻找新的盈利点，制造商可以通过OTA更新来向消费者销售产品，可能是购买性能提升或其他功能。
And I think dealers should participate in the revenue stream of those things because if those things don't work or break, they'll come to the dealer and we'll just say, call the 800 number. I can't help you. So I think this opportunity for dealers and also opportunity for manufacturers, they should have us participate in this revenue streams. Today we're hovering around like 7% market penetration for electric vehicles. A year ago, that was at about 5.9%. What do you think? What do you think this looks like in about 10 years? Where we headed? Well, the government's about to announce that's an EPA new mandates. I think I've heard March 22nd, which would lead to 68% of retail sales being required to be EVs by 2032. That's less than 10 years. It's not achievable for every manufacturer to get to that level.
我认为经销商应该参与这些产品的收入流，因为如果这些产品不起作用或损坏，他们会来找经销商，而我们只会说，打 800 电话。我不能帮你。所以我认为这是经销商和制造商的机会，他们应该让我们参与这些收入流。今天我们电动汽车市场渗透率大约在 7% 左右。一年前，这个数字大约是 5.9%。你认为呢？你认为 10 年后会是什么样子？我们将走向何方？嗯，政府即将宣布 EPA 的新规定。我听说是在 3 月 22 日，根据这一规定，2032 年要求 68% 的零售销售必须是电动汽车。不到 10 年的时间。对于每家制造商都达到那个水平是不可实现的。
Look, I like EVs. There's a market for EVs. If dealers don't have desirable, portable EVs will lose that business to direct sellers. So there is a market. More in some markets than others, California, the coast and the heartland. But the question is, what is the level of consumer acceptance going to be? And look, you said EV sales are about 7% and they were about 7% retail sales last year. The Tesla is 60% or so of that 7%. So OEM is only about 2% to 3% of their EV sales, of sales for EVs. And we have over 100 day supply of cars. So what's that telling us? Telling us consumer demand is tepid. And for a lot of good reasons. And even Tesla's, they lower the price six times or run out of customers. And they have like two weeks worth of orders, you know, and they're not expanding because if they do, they're going to be, you'll have to cut production.
我喜欢电动汽车。市场上有对电动汽车的需求。如果经销商没有令人满意、可携带的电动汽车，消费者将会选择直销商。因此市场是存在的。在某些市场中，需求会更大一些，比如加利福尼亚、沿海地区和内陆地区。但问题是，消费者接受程度会是多少呢？你说过电动汽车的销量大约占了7%，去年零售销售中也是如此。特斯拉占了这7%中的60%左右。因此，原始设备制造商只占了大约2%到3%的电动汽车销售额。我们现在有100多天的汽车库存。这告诉我们什么？这告诉我们消费者的需求不高。有很多合理的理由导致这种情况。即使是特斯拉，他们已经降价了六次，依然没有消费者。他们还有大约两周的订单，他们没有扩大生产规模，因为如果这样做，他们不得不减产。
So I think what are the barriers to EVs? Affordability is one. And S&P International said that the same model EV costs 40% more than a gas version. Okay, you can't go by average. The barrier is affordability with high interest rates, you know, 60% live paycheck to paycheck. You know, a couple hundred dollars a month makes a difference. They can't afford it. It's charging challenge. And I say all home charging, you have home charging. Well, you got to buy charger and half the homes don't have electrical service without additional upgrade. They don't have the amperage. So that's additional costs and half people don't own a home, live in a street, live in apartment, rent a home or street parking.
所以，我认为电动汽车的障碍是什么？价格是其中之一。标普全球表示，同一款电动汽车的价格比汽油版高出40%。好吧，不能用平均值来对待。价格障碍是高利率，你知道，60% 的人靠发薪日度日。你知道，每个月几百美元可以有所不同。他们买不起。还有充电的挑战。我说在家充电，你有家用充电。但是，你得买充电器，而有一半的家庭没有电力服务，需要额外升级。他们没有足够的安培数。这就是额外的费用，而且有一半的人没有自己的房子，住在街上，住在公寓里，租房或者街边停车。
They'll have to use the DC fast charging network with costs more. It's inconvenient and often sometimes broken. So look, if the car charged in five minutes, I like to gas your car in five minutes at a 350 mile range and costs the same. Sure, go for it. But it doesn't. It costs more. It gets, spend money on charging. It's inconvenient. It's a hassle. And you have range anxiety because you wonder, where am I going to go?
他们将不得不使用成本更高且不便利的直流快充网络。有时候还会出现故障。所以看，如果汽车在五分钟内充满电，我愿意在五分钟内给你的汽车加满油，行驶350英里，并且花费相同。当然可以。但事实并非如此。充电更贵。它需要花钱。它不方便。它很麻烦。你会因为担心续航而感到焦虑，想着我该去哪里？
If I'm not outside of my home, where am I going to get my charge? Will the charge be working? You know, I, there's one major brand which comes free with the car. I have one of the cars I have. And I like trying different chargers. One was 35, give me 35 kilowatts an hour. One's giving 56. One was giving one 25. The same brand about the same level charge on my car. So there's other fact involved with this. Now I could be two and a half hours there. If you know, get a charge, that's not going to work. So it's, the government is going to force this. But here's the problem is that it's all about carbon footprint. Right?
如果我不在家外面，我要去哪里充电呢？充电桩会工作吗？你知道，有一个主要品牌的充电桩是免费的。其中有一款我有一个。我喜欢尝试不同的充电桩。有一款每小时提供35千瓦电量，还有一款提供56千瓦，另一款提供125千瓦。相同品牌，在我的车上提供大致相同水平的充电。所以还有其他因素要考虑。现在我可能要在那里待两个半小时。如果你知道，充电不起作用，那就不行了。所以政府要强制执行这一措施。但问题在于这都与碳排放有关，对吧？
They say zero mission. Well, nothing zero mission. You know, electricity comes from some place. The problem is you got to mind you got to move 500,000 pounds a mineral to make one battery. You extract 100,000 pounds of ore, process that ore. It's very carbon intensive. The carbon footprint is bigger on an EV than a gas car significantly at the factory door. Volvo did a study, it's 70,000 miles for us even. And with the batteries getting larger, it's probably 100,000 miles. You increase carbon emissions with EVs. You won't reduce it. I mean, that's, I mean, and China's making the batteries with coal power plants.
他们说零排放。好吧，没有什么零排放。你知道，电力是从某个地方产生的。问题在于，你需要运输50万磅的矿石才能制造一个电池。你要提取10万磅的矿石，加工这些矿石。这会产生大量的碳排放。电动汽车的碳足迹在工厂门口比汽油车大得多。沃尔沃做过研究，对我们来说是7万英里。随着电池变得更大，可能是10万英里。使用电动汽车会增加碳排放，而不是减少。我是说，这是，我是说，中国用燃煤发电厂生产电池。
You know, so it's not, it's not environmentally, I hate to tell people it's not environmentally can help us move in the right direction. And I'm not opposed. I like, you know, there's a role for them. We need them. I like them in my daily ride as an EV. It fits my lifestyle. It's great. Enjoy it. I'm learning from it. But it's not for everybody. And here's what's going to hurt, I think, in the heartland, where people live a little further apart and they're reliant more on big trucks, you know, F-150s, Silver Auto, you know, those trucks, the batteries are huge, the cost of the vehicle is very high and utility towing something is very limited. And even in cold weather, it's even worse.
你知道，其实并不是环保的，我讨厌告诉人们这并不能帮助我们朝着正确的方向前进。我并不反对。我喜欢，你知道，它们有自己的作用。我们需要它们。我喜欢它们作为我每天的电动车。它符合我的生活方式。很棒。享受它。我从中学到了很多。但并不适合每个人。我认为，在人们住得比较分散，更依赖大卡车的内陆地区，比如F-150，Silver Auto，那些卡车，电池很大，车辆成本很高，牵引的功能也有限。甚至在寒冷的天气，情况更糟。
So it's going to take, it's going to just kill the manufacturers, depending upon heavy trucks. The F-150 Lightning is complete failure. These only guys are going to fail too for the same reasons. You really need a more gentle slope in terms of adoption. You need a charging network, you need affordability. But it's being ran down people's throats with the government regulations. A lot of the headlines are lulling people's sleep. All they're moderating, all they're adjusting, no, they're not. You know, they give me lip service and they're going to be onerous these regulations. You're standing on the F-150 Lightning being a complete failure. Why do you think that is? Why did say it? It costs. It costs a lot. And utility, you know, you don't have the range of your towing. And those are big barriers.
所以这将需要时间，这将毁掉那些依赖大型卡车制造商。F-150闪电版是一个彻底的失败。这些家伙也将由于同样的原因失败。在采用过程中需要一个更温和的过渡。你需要充电网络，你需要价格实惠。但政府法规却在强行推动。很多头条都在安慰人们，他们在调整什么，没有，他们不是。你知道，他们只是虚情假意，这些法规会导致巨大负担。你认为F-150闪电版彻底失败的原因是什么？为什么这么说？成本。成本太高。而且实用性，你用不了这个拖车的里程数。这些都是巨大的障碍。
I mean, and here's the thing is, okay, so use your F-150 Lightning. It's probably a good product, you know, doesn't mean people want to buy it, you know, in itself it's probably well made in that way. So let's say you're towing a boat, okay, and you need a charge. You can't just drive up the charging station with your boat. You block all the stations. So you got to take your boat, unhook it, put it, it's not practical. Drive up, charge for an hour and a half and go back, hook your boat up and you'll, you know, run 30 miles, you know, hopefully your lakes near your house. But it's just not the practicality. Plus it costs $20,000 more. That's a lot to people.
我的意思是，问题是，好吧，就拿F-150闪电版来说吧。它可能是一个很好的产品，你知道，但这并不意味着人们就会想买它，你知道，在某种程度上它可能做得很好。所以假设你在拖船，好吧，你需要充电。你不能只是开着船到充电站。你会堵住所有的充电站。所以你得把船拉开，卸下来，放下来，这不实际。开过去，充电一个半小时，回来，把船挂上，你知道，跑30英里，希望你家附近有湖。但这实际上并不切实际。再加上要多花2万美元。这对大多数人来说是很多钱。
So speaking of China, you know, murmurs about China entering the US with their EVs, you know, their, they've been, you know, spreading pretty far and wide across the world, you know, outside of the US. What are your thoughts there? I was in China in November. It was really an interesting trip. And I spoke at the China Autodular Association Convention. You know, Beijing is as modern as any sea in the world, you know, I'm so glad I went and I just said, met some wonderful people, had a great experience.
说到中国，你知道，关于中国用他们的电动汽车进入美国的传言，他们已经在世界范围内蔓延得相当广泛，离开了美国。你对此有什么想法？我在11月份去了中国。这是一次非常有趣的旅行。我在中国汽车工业协会大会上发表了演讲。北京和世界上任何一个城市一样现代化，我很高兴去了那里，认识了一些很棒的人，度过了一次很棒的经历。
Now, if you look at the manufacturers, you can't look at them in isolation in the United States. Most of the manufacturers deal with in Asia, they deal with Europe and the United States. And what's happening in China, the Chinese could not compete with ice turning busing engines because basically the manufacturer locked up the supply chain. But they said, they figured out 10 years ago, we're going to go move in the EV direction. Okay, part of that may be to reduce their consumption of oil because they don't have the domestic supply, they want to reduce the demand on oil.
现在，如果你看制造商，你不能单独在美国看它们。大多数制造商与亚洲、欧洲和美国都有交易。在中国发生的事情是，中国人无法与生产轮胎发动机的主要制造商竞争，因为基本上制造商控制了供应链。但他们说，他们在10年前就意识到要向电动汽车方向发展。好的，这其中的一部分可能是为了减少他们对石油的消耗，因为他们没有国内供应，他们想减少对石油的需求。
So they locked up the supply chain, 80% supply chain of critical minerals to make batteries and to process those minerals. And in China, they're working to, you know, the Europeans, the Japanese Koreans and the Americans, Matazlo and Jenna Motors have been very active in China selling cars. Today, the Chinese government is trying to push them out of China, promoting new energy vehicles, electric vehicles, plug-ins and to buy domestic home grown cars.
因此，他们封锁了供应链，占据了80%关键矿物制造电池和加工这些矿物的供应链。在中国，他们正在努力，欧洲人、日本人、韩国人和美国人，Matazlo和Jenna Motors一直在中国市场上活跃。如今，中国政府正在努力将它们挤出中国市场，推广新能源汽车、电动车和插电式车辆，鼓励购买国产汽车。
GM the past 10 years sold more cars in China than the United States. And what's on the news, it was amazing article a few months ago, it's in five years GM only in B in China. So the Chinese are going to push the other company, you've taught us how to build cars, thank you very much, we'll take it from here. So there's a market share a lot because of EVs, the Chinese have a 35% cost advantage at a minimum over any other EV manufacturer, good control supply of minerals, the processes minerals, and they have the involvement of the government, which is kind of hard to unravel from that.
在过去的十年里，通用汽车在中国卖出的汽车比在美国卖出的还要多。而最近的新闻里，有一篇令人惊讶的文章，说的是通用汽车在中国仅仅五年时间就取得了B市场。所以中国人将会推动其他公司，他们告诉我们怎样制造汽车，非常感谢，我们会继续努力。因此，在EV市场上，中国人享有35%以上的成本优势，控制着矿产资源供应，并拥有政府的支持，这可能是难以解开的纠葛。
35% cost advantage. Now Elon Musk said, under his chain, the Chinese would cause an extinction event among manufacturers around the world, you know, there are some barriers to them. So you look at Europe, they're going to ban the self-gassing cars in 2035, that's their plan, and then you have in the United States new plans being announced going 68% or so EV by 2032.
35%成本优势。现在埃隆·马斯克说，在他的领导下，中国会在全球制造商中引发一个灭绝事件，你知道，有些障碍阻碍着他们。所以你看看欧洲，他们计划在2035年禁止自燃汽车，然后在美国有新的计划宣布到2032年将电动汽车占比提高到68%左右。
So the manufacturers have to move in that EV direction, but the Chinese with this cost advantage could undercut everybody else. And their heading for Europe is only 9% tariff, we're going to take huge market share and they're likely coming to North America.
因此，制造商必须朝着电动汽车的方向发展，而中国人凭借成本优势可能打破所有人的价格。他们前往欧洲只需支付9%的关税，我们将占据巨大的市场份额，而他们可能会来到北美。
You know, we've had waves here before, we've had waves of Japanese brands, European brands, Korean brands, Chinese waves could be quite different, that could because of their price advantage, it could take out some manufacturers along with the dealers, it's very possible. Very interesting. I never heard that the embedded cost advantage is just not something I considered, especially with your point, right? They have the government connections there, where they've really taken over a lot of, you know, areas around the world where they do mining. So that's very a good point.
你知道吗，我们之前这里已经出现过一波又一波的日本品牌、欧洲品牌、韩国品牌，而中国的浪潮可能会完全不同，可能是因为它们的价格优势，这可能会导致一些制造商和经销商被淘汰，这是非常可能的。非常有趣。我从未听说过嵌入式成本优势只是我没有考虑到的事情，尤其是在你指出的那一点。他们在那里有政府关系，可以真正掌握许多世界各地的挖矿领域。所以这是非常有价值的观点。
As you think about that, right, and you think about the future of car business in general, and of course your group, but I'm thinking broadly, what brands are you bullish on nowadays? Automotive brands. Well, that's like saying, which of your children do you like best? You know, clearly some brands are superior to others because their product is better, and because their relationship with dealers, but dealers generally know who those are. There's, it's a big market.
当你考虑这个问题的时候，你会开始思考汽车行业的未来，当然也包括你所在的团队，但我指的是更广泛的范围，你现在对哪些汽车品牌感到看好？嗯，这就好像在问你，你最喜欢自己的孩子中的哪个一样吧？你知道的，显然有一些品牌要比其他品牌优秀，因为他们的产品更好，和他们与经销商的关系更好，不过一般经销商都清楚哪些品牌是好的。这是一个庞大的市场。
I think cars aren't going away. I think personal ability is really important. Affordable personal ability is really a source of freedom that people can live where they want to live, work where they want to work, take their family where they want to go. I think dealers play a big role in preserving affordable personal transportation.
我认为汽车并不会消失。我认为个人能力真的很重要。能够负担得起的个人能力真的是人们可以选择居住地、工作地、带着家人去任何地方的自由来源。我认为经销商在保留可负担得起的个人交通工具方面起着重要作用。
So they keep talking about EVs. It's like a horse and buggy. Now it's still the horse and buggy. You just change the horse's food, you know, electricity versus gas. The horse is still there, you know, so it's not such a big change. We had electric cars a century ago. So I think the future is still good for automobiles. People clamor for automobiles can still win automobiles. They may be driving a little later than they were before, but as they move to the suburbs or have families, they need cars.
他们一直在谈论电动汽车。就好像马车一样。现在依然是马车。只不过你把马的食物换成了电力，而不是汽油。马仍然存在，所以变化并不会太大。一个世纪前我们就有电动汽车了。我认为未来对汽车仍然是美好的。渴望拥有汽车的人仍然可以拥有汽车。也许他们开车的时间会比以前晚一点，但随着他们搬到郊区或组建家庭，他们仍然需要汽车。
So I think there's still a role for the car dealer. I'm bullish on the future. We've had challenges before, threats before. Dealers are really creative. Look how fast we mutated during COVID to adjust to the new reality really fast, really quick, really imaginative and creative. Some of the creative people are car dealers and he worked in car dealerships. So I'm very optimistic about the future, but there are some really large challenges, like the FTC, like the EPA coming. You mentioned Scout and you have the unanswered question of distribution from VW Scout and Honda Sony, the Afielda. You know, basically dealers have protection, you know, in a lot of states. And if they try to sell direct, it would be contrary to those regulations and the state associations are going to challenge them legally. We would like to see them work through dealers, but they've not announced it. And my response then was silence speeds, you know, until we hear something, we're probably going to think the worst. But we're working now on how responders do EPA and its regulations, which are very onerous.
所以我认为汽车经销商仍然扮演着重要角色。我对未来充满信心。我们之前曾面临过挑战，受到过威胁。经销商们实在很有创造力。看看我们在疫情期间是多么快速地适应了新的现实，非常迅速、富有想象力和创造力。有些有创意的人就是汽车经销商，他们在汽车经销店工作。所以我对未来非常乐观，但也会面临一些重大挑战，比如FTC和EPA的介入。你提到了Scout，以及来自大众Scout和本田索尼的分销问题尚未解答。基本上，许多州对经销商有保护政策。如果它们试图直接销售，将违反这些法规，州协会会对其提出法律挑战。我们希望它们通过经销商工作，但它们尚未宣布。我当时的回答是沉默是金，直到我们听到一些消息，我们可能会认为情况最糟。但现在我们正在解决如何应对EPA及其繁重的法规的问题。
They could bankrupt some car manufacturers potentially. Manufacture goes out. I mean, the dealers could go out too, because the cost of transition is very high to electrification. Some manufacturers, you know, California has their own 14 states or so follow California missions. In the year and a half, you're supposed to be 35% EV, every manufacturer 35%. Again, we're three to 4% as an industry. That won't be achieved. California likely will move the goalposts like they have in the past. But these federal regulations are onerous. Now, a couple of things to look at, if Biden remains as president, these rules will stay in effect. If we have a Republican administration, if that were to happen, regulations sometimes take years to unwind. So a lot of these regulations will be announced maybe later this month are going to be there for quite a while.
这些规定可能会使一些汽车制造商破产。制造业会消失。我的意思是，经销商也可能关门，因为转型至电动化的成本非常高。一些制造商，你知道的，加利福尼亚州有自己的14个州或者说追随加利福尼亚州的排放标准。在一年半的时间内，每个制造商都应该有35%的电动汽车。而行业目前只占3-4%。这个目标不太可能实现。加利福尼亚可能会像过去一样改变标准。但是这些联邦规定非常繁琐。现在，有几点需要注意，如果拜登继续担任总统，这些规定将继续生效。如果有共和党执政，如果那种情况发生，要废除法规有时需要数年时间。因此，这个月晚些时候宣布的许多规定可能会长期存在。
And it's going to be quite something to see how you can match availability of product with consumer demand. Consumer demand is tapped. And EVs above a certain point. And I think there's going to be some kind of collision here, something's going to break. Absolutely. And when you say something is going to break, what do you mean by that? Just prices declining or something else? Well, the manufacturers, because here's the thing about EVs, it costs a lot to manufacture. Okay. And they keep talking about battery prices going down. Right now, there's a lull in commodity prices like lithium cobalt. Those prices are going to go skyrocket as the demand increases. We've got increased mining 400 to 4000%. In like a few years, it's not going to happen. It can't happen. So the battery price is likely the manufacturer will go up with can manufacturers make money on them? They're not now, probably not. And unless they get to a certain volume.
这将是一件非常令人注目的事情，看看您如何将产品供应与消费者需求匹配起来。消费者需求已经被开发出来了。尤其是某一点以上的电动汽车。我认为这里将会发生某种冲突，一些东西会崩溃。绝对是这样。当你说一些东西会崩溃时，你指的是什么？只是价格下降还是其他什么？制造商，因为关于电动汽车的事情，制造成本很高。好的。他们不断谈论电池价格下降的问题。目前，像锂钴这样的大宗商品价格处于低谷。随着需求增加，这些价格将会急剧上涨。我们已经将采矿量增加了400到4000%。在几年内，这是不可能实现的。电池价格很可能会随之增加，制造商能够从中赚钱吗？现在他们可能做不到，也许以后也不能。除非他们达到一定的产量。
And so with manufacturers of overcapacity, of EVs and dealers aren't willing to take them, what's going to happen then? Now the fine is like $25,000 a car. They can't make the emissions. You can example would be the California emissions that require 35% of cars to be EV in a year and a half. Let's just say those rules take effect and if any has no EVs, they're such a stop selling gasoline cars in those states. That's where it breaks. Okay. 10 years from today, do we have more dealers or fewer dealers? I would say the question is there may be fewer dealers. There may not be fewer dealerships, but there's more consolidation. There will be fewer dealers. So roughly 8,000 dealers, 16,000 dealerships, something like that. There will be fewer dealers just because the cost of entry is so large and economies of scale to be larger is something that's been going on for a long time. In fact, there's been fewer dealers since back like 1920s. It's been a long term trend, but there's more consolidation.
因此，对于生产过剩的电动汽车制造商和经销商不愿接收这些汽车，接下来会发生什么？现在罚款是每辆车2.5万美元。他们无法达到排放标准。一个例子就是加州排放标准要求在一年半内有35%的汽车必须是电动汽车。假设这些规定生效，如果有任何州没有电动汽车，它们将停止在这些州销售汽油车。这就是问题所在。好的。从今天算起10年后，我们的经销商会增加还是减少？我会说问题是可能会减少经销商。经销商数量可能会减少，但经销门店可能会增加更多的整合。经销商数量会减少。大约8000个经销商，16000个经销门店，大致如此。由于进入门槛巨大，规模经济会更为重要，这已经是一个长期发展趋势。事实上，自20世纪20年代以来，经销商数量一直在减少。这是一个长期的趋势，但整合会更多。
So there will be fewer dealers, but not necessarily fewer dealerships. Yeah. And I was actually alluding towards fewer dealerships. Well, remember the population is probably growing. We're least stable or not shrinking, like a lot of countries. Most industrial countries are shrinking population with that immigration. We probably have the health healthiest demographics, and there's a move to the suburbs from the city post-COVID and for a lot of reasons. And I think demand for cars will stay strong and as such, there will be some kinds of, well, here's a point I'll just say. Well, the manufacturers have not been supportive of the dealer position in trying to tell government that this is moving too far, too fast with EVs. It may be because of competitive reasons for them. I think just on myself, I think they could have four positions, the manufacturer.
因此，经销商数量将会减少，但并不一定意味着经销商店铺会减少。是的。我实际上是在暗示店铺数量将会减少。记住，人口可能正在增长。我们至少是相对稳定的，或者不像很多国家那样在缩小。大多数工业化国家的人口在随着移民而减少。我们可能拥有最健康的人口结构，而且在疫情后有一个由城市向郊区的搬迁趋势，原因很多。我认为对汽车的需求将保持强劲，因此会有某种程度的，嗯，我想说的是。制造商们并未支持经销商的立场，试图告诉政府电动汽车的发展进程已经进展得太快。可能是因为他们自身的竞争原因。我个人认为，制造商们可能有不同的立场。
One is if we fail, the government will bail us out. Two is, if we say go bankrupt or reorganize, clear out the dealers we don't need and move forward. Three, a public administration will bail us out. Or four, we have value. We're small company have value, but we've merged into some other organization. They may take one of those four positions and it's not necessarily the right positions. I think the manufacturers should take a stronger position with the government in terms of these what the requirements are. The cost is not there. The cost too much and the technology is completely available to accomplish what they want. But unfortunately, the manufacturers have decided other than Toyota not to take an aggressive position and just go long to get along. And they're the ones that are going to suffer some consequences through this, I believe, in this transition.
有一个是，如果我们失败了，政府将会救助我们。第二个是，如果我们破产或者重组，清理掉我们不需要的经销商，然后继续前进。第三，公共管理将会救助我们。或者第四，我们有价值。我们是一个小公司，有价值，但是我们已经被合并到另一个组织中。他们可能会采取这四种立场之一，但不一定是正确的立场。我认为制造商应该在这些要求方面与政府采取更强硬的立场。成本并不是问题。成本太高，而技术完全可以实现他们想要的。不幸的是，制造商除了丰田之外，决定了不采取积极的立场，而是遵从长期合作。我相信他们将在这个过渡期中受到一些后果的影响。
Otherwise, dealers will mutate, will adjust, we're like bamboo. Figure it out. Have the pass. Some bamboo. I like that. I'm both in the future and then we'll be fine. We'll get through it. Jeff Ohank, thanks so much for coming on. This is seriously awesome. Appreciate it. Thank you. Thanks for having me. Appreciate it.
否则，经销商将会变异，将会调整，我们就像竹子一样。 想办法解决。 有一些竹子。 我喜欢这个。 我们既是未来，然后我们会没事的。 我们会度过难关的。 Jeff Ohank，非常感谢您的到来。 这真的太棒了。 感谢。 谢谢您邀请我。 感激不尽。
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