OnSemi 2023 Q4 Earnings Call
发布时间 2024-02-06 06:49:07 来源
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the on-semi-conductor fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during this session you will need to press star 1-1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question please press star 1-1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
大家好，感谢您的等候。欢迎参加On半导体2023年第四季度收益电话会议。现在所有参与者处于仅听模式。在发言人演讲结束后，我们将进行问答环节。在此期间，如需提问，请按下您电话上的星号键1-1。您将听到一个自动提示，表示您已经举手提问。如需撤回问题，请再次按下星号键1-1。请注意，今天的会议正在录音。
I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today Pareg Agarwal, Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
我现在想将会议交给今天的主持人帕雷格·阿加尔瓦尔，他是公司发展和投资者关系副总裁。请继续。
Thank you, Liz. Good morning and thank you for joining on-semi-conductor 2023 quarterly results conference call. I am joined today by Hassan Elkhari, our President and CEO and Thad Sare our CFO. This call is being webcast on the investor relations section of our website at www.onsemi.com. A replay of this webcast along with our 2023 fourth quarter earnings release will be available on our website approximately 1 hour following this conference call and the recorded webcast will be available for approximately 30 days following this conference call. Additional information is posted on the investor relations section of our website.
谢谢，Liz。早上好，感谢您参加安森美半导体2023年季度业绩电话会议。今天，我与我们的总裁兼首席执行官Hassan Elkhari以及我们的首席财务官Thad Sare一起参加了会议。本通话将在我们网站的投资者关系部分进行网络广播，网址为www.onsemi.com。本次电话会议后约1小时，我们将在网站上提供本次网络广播的重播以及2023年第四季度收益发布的相关信息，而此次电话会议的录制网络广播将在会议后的大约30天内提供。更多信息已发布在我们网站的投资者关系部分。
Our only release release and this presentation includes certain non-GAF financial measures. The confirmation of these non-GAF financial measures to the most directly comparable gap financial measures and a discussion of certain limitations when using non-GAF financial measures are included in our earnings release which is posted separately on our website in the investor relations section.
我们的唯一发布和本次演示包括某些非普通会计准则 (GAF) 的财务指标。这些非GAF财务指标与最直接可比较的GAF财务指标进行了确认，并在我们的盈利发布中讨论了使用非GAF财务指标时的某些限制。该盈利发布已单独发布在我们的网站投资者关系部分。
During the course of this conference call, we will make projections for other forward-looking statements regarding the future events or the future financial performance of the company. We wish to caution the assessment of subject to this and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results that differ materially from projection. Important factors that can affect our business including factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements are described in our most systems from 10K, from 10Qs and other findings with securities and exchange commission and in our earnings release for the fourth quarter of 2023. Our estimates or other formal-looking statements will change and the company assumes no application to update forward-looking statements to reflect actual results, change the assumptions or other events that may occur except as required by law.
在本次电话会议期间，我们将对公司未来事件或未来财务业绩作出其他前瞻性声明。我们希望提醒大家对此的评估存在风险和不确定性，可能会导致实际事件或结果与预测有实质性差异。影响我们业务的重要因素，包括可能导致实际结果与我们的前瞻性声明有实质性差异的因素，已在我们的最新10K、10Q和与证券交易委员会的其他发现中进行了描述，并在我们2023年第四季度的盈利发布中予以披露。我们的估计或其他正式的前瞻性声明将发生变化，公司不承诺更新前瞻性声明以反映实际结果、更改假设或其他可能发生的事件，除非法律要求。
Now let me turn it over to Hassan.
现在我把话题转给Hassan。
Hassan. Thank you, Parag. Good morning and thank you all for joining us on the call. We are pleased to share our results with you following another year of significant accomplishments as we continue transforming the company to achieve our long-term financial model. Our intelligent power and sensing technologies accounted for 71% of our revenue in 2023 compared to 62% in 2021 as we have driven our portfolio to strategic areas with higher growth margin. Our revenue from true products in 2023 increased more than 40% over 22 year over year. Design-win growth continues to outpace the long-term revenue growth target we outlined during our analyst day. We had a record year of automotive revenue increasing 29% over 2022 driven by both intelligent power and sensing. We achieved our first billion-dollar revenue year for automotive image sensors with design winds increasing more than 50% year over year fueling our future growth with new products.
谢谢，Parag。早上好，感谢大家参加我们的电话会议。我们很高兴在此与您分享我们的成果，这是我们继续进行公司转型以实现长期财务模型后的又一年重要成就。2023年，我们的智能动力和感测技术占据了我们收入的71%，相比之下，2021年的占比为62%，这表明我们已经将我们的产品组合推向了具有更高增长利润率的战略领域。2023年我们真实产品的收入同比增长超过了40%。与此同时，设计赢得（Design-win）的增长仍然超过了我们在分析师日提出的长期收入增长目标。我们在汽车行业的收入创下了纪录，2023年相比2022年增长了29%，其中智能动力和感测技术都起到了推动作用。我们实现了汽车图像传感器的首个十亿美元收入年度，设计赢得同比增长超过了50%，为我们的未来增长注入了新产品。
It was a great year for silicon carbide. We shipped more than $800 million in 2023 or four times 2022 revenue. Our silicon carbide revenue had the highest growth in the industry both in terms of dollars and percentage in 2023 delivering an estimated 25% market share. We increased our customer base to more than 600 customers in 2023. Our top 10 customers are geographically distributed with over 50% in APAC including Korea followed by the US and we expect to further diversify our customer base in 2024 as European customers ran production.
对硅碳化物来说，这是一个非常成功的一年。2023年，我们的销售额超过8亿美元，是2022年的四倍。我们的硅碳化物收入在2023年以美元和百分比计算都实现了行业最高的增长，预计市场份额达到25%。2023年，我们的客户数量增加到了600多名。我们的前十大客户遍布全球，其中超过50%的客户来自亚太地区，包括韩国，其次是美国。我们预计在2024年将进一步扩大客户群，因为欧洲客户开始进行生产。
We continue to make progress on our transition to 200 millimeter with material already running through our manufacturing steps and we announced the world's largest silicon carbide fab with our expansion in Bhuchan, South Korea.
我们在向200毫米转型方面继续取得进展，已经有材料通过我们的制造流程，并且我们还宣布了全球最大的硅碳化物工厂，在我们在韩国釜山的扩建项目中。
While market reports still project 30 to 40% growth for silicon carbide in 2024 OEM's latest EV plans indicate a more tapered growth signaling a sick market growth in the range of 20 to 30%.
尽管市场报告仍然预测2024年碳化硅市场增长30%至40%，但原始设备制造商（OEM）最新的电动车计划显示出一种更为适度的增长趋势，表明市场增长将在20%至30%的范围内。
We still expect to grow at 2x the market growth in 2024 with customers ramping production in both industrial and automotive. Electrification remains a content expansion opportunity for us. Our broad portfolio of silicon carbide and IGBTs combined with our high power packaging solutions give us a competitive advantage across all levels of EVs ranging from HEV to PHEV.
我们仍然预计在2024年以每年市场增长两倍的速度增长，客户将在工业和汽车领域加速生产。电气化仍然是我们的一个增长机会。我们广泛的碳化硅和IGBT产品组合，再加上我们的高功率封装解决方案，使我们在从混合动力汽车到插电混合动力汽车等各个级别的电动汽车领域具有竞争优势。
In fact, our 2023 hybrid vehicle related revenue nearly doubled year over year while the number of vehicles grew 30%. We have significant content gains across all X EVs and specifically up to $350 of content in hybrid electric drivetrains and onboard chargers. We grow no matter which one gains traction.
实际上，我们2023年的混合动力汽车相关收入同比增长近两倍，而车辆数量增长了30%。我们在所有X EVs车型上都取得了显著的内容增长，特别是在混合动力电动驱动系统和车载充电器上高达350美元的内容。无论哪种车型受到关注，我们都能持续增长。
Unintended. Onsemi is number 2 in silicon power with best in class IGBT and MOSFET technologies. Our overall IGBT revenue nearly doubled over the last 2 years driven by market share gains and further penetration in X EV and energy infrastructure.
意料之外。Onsemi在硅功率领域排名第二，拥有一流的IGBT和MOSFET技术。我们的整体IGBT收入在过去两年几乎翻了一番，这归功于市场份额的增加以及在电动汽车（EV）和能源基础设施领域的进一步渗透。
In automotive onsemi is number 1 in image sensors with 2023 revenue increasing more than 12% year over year driven by the shift to higher value 8 megapixel sensors as customers move to better performance options at higher ASPs. 8 megapixel image sensor revenue nearly doubled year over year demonstrating the market trend toward higher resolution for ADAS systems.
在汽车行业中，onsemi在图像传感器领域名列第一，2023年的收入同比增长超过12%，受到客户转向更高价值的800万像素传感器的推动，客户选择性能更好的选项和更高平均售价（ASPs）。800万像素图像传感器的收入同比增长了近一倍，显示出ADAS系统向更高分辨率发展的市场趋势。
We are also number 1 in automotive LED lighting, inductive and ultrasonic sensing and we plan to advance our leadership position with our upcoming analog and mixed signal platform.
我们在汽车LED照明、感应和超声波感应领域也是第一名，并计划通过即将推出的模拟和混合信号平台进一步强化我们的领导地位。
In industrial we are number 1 in solar and energy storage solutions with our IGBTs, silicon carbide and module portfolio from commercial to utility scale string inverters. Energy infrastructure is still our highest growth mega trend in industrial where we continue to see demand for our hybrid modules with silicon and silicon carbide.
在工业领域，我们的IGBT、碳化硅和模块系列为商业到公共事业规模的串联逆变器提供了太阳能和能量存储解决方案，并且在这方面我们排名第一。能源基础设施仍然是我们工业领域内增长最快的巨大趋势，我们继续看到对我们的硅和碳化硅混合模块的需求。
In 2023 the international energy agency or IEA reported that the world's renewable energy surpassed 50% growth over 2022 its fastest rate in the past 25 years. Our revenue for energy infrastructure during this same period grew 60%. The IEA predicts that renewable energy is on course increased by 2.5 times by 2030.
在2023年，国际能源署（IEA）报告显示，全球可再生能源在过去25年中实现了50%的增长率，创下了历史最快速度。与此同时，我们在能源基础设施方面的收入在同一时期增长了60%。国际能源署预测，到2030年，可再生能源有望增长2.5倍。
For EV chargers we just released a full suite of Elite Sick Power Integrated modules enabling bidirectional charging capabilities for DC ultra-fast electric vehicle chargers. Our newly released modules can be used up to 350 kilowatt in EV chargers, the highest in the industry to reduce charging time to 15 minutes for a near full charge.
对于电动汽车充电器，我们刚刚推出了一整套Elite Sick Power集成模块，实现了直流超快速电动车充电器的双向充电功能。我们最新发布的模块可在电动汽车充电器中使用高达350千瓦的功率，为实现近乎完全充电的时间缩短到15分钟，是行业中最高的。
Our broad portfolio of products has enabled us to become a one-stop shop for our customers and the source for the most optimized solutions. It is critical for customers to extract the best performance for their system and using our portfolio to provide a system level optimized solution across our power and sensing technologies to remain a competitive advantage.
我们全面的产品组合使我们成为客户的一站式购物中心和最优解决方案的源头。对客户来说，能够从我们的产品组合中获得系统水平优化的解决方案是至关重要的，这可以保持我们在电源和传感技术领域的竞争优势。
We are also excited about our power opportunity to support the transition to 48 volt. We are already in production with a leading automotive customer on their new 48 volt architecture as we had already planned our portfolio for such a transition.
我们对支持48伏的转型也感到非常兴奋。我们已经与一家领先的汽车客户合作，生产他们的新48伏架构，因为我们已经计划好了适应这种转变的产品组合。
Last year we responded to the market uncertainty by focusing on our execution. As demonstrated with more predictable and sustainable financial results, our worldwide teams delivered operational excellence in the face of challenging market conditions without losing sight of innovation to further our leadership position in intelligent power and sensing solutions.
去年，面对市场的不确定性，我们通过专注于执行来应对。正如更可预测和可持续的财务业绩所证明的那样，我们的全球团队在瞬息万变的市场环境中保持了卓越的运营能力，同时没有忽视创新，以进一步加强我们在智能电力和感知解决方案领域的领导地位。
We are happy with the progress we've made in 2023, having built a resilient business model capable of performing in all market environments. We are now turning to the opportunities for operational improvements in 2024 to achieve our target financial model.
我们对2023年取得的进展感到非常满意，我们建立了一个能够在所有市场环境下运作的稳健商业模式。现在我们将转向2024年的运营改进机会，以实现我们的目标财务模型。
In the near term, based on our current outlook and early LTSA signals, we expect continued softness across all end markets through a period of inventory digestion and slowing and demand. The bottom line is that we will weather 2024 with substantially better financial performance than in prior downturns.
在近期内，根据我们目前的预测和早期长期服务协议信号，我们预计在库存消化和需求放缓期间，所有终端市场将继续保持疲软。总的来说，我们将以比之前经济衰退时期更出色的财务表现度过2024年。
Meanwhile, we will continue to invest in extending our leading portfolio and we will benefit disproportionately as the market recovers. With that, I'll turn it over to Thad to provide further details on our results. Thad.
同时，我们将继续投资扩大我们的领先产品组合，而且在市场复苏时，我们将获得更大的收益。现在我将把发言权交给Thad，他将详细介绍我们的业绩。
Thanks, Asan. Our ongoing transformation in 2023 delivered significant improvement towards our long-term financial model. Our ability to proactively navigate through the current cycle while delivering better results than ever in a downturn is a testament to the work our teams have accomplished over the last three years.
谢谢，阿桑。我们在2023年的持续转型为我们的长期财务模型带来了显著的改善。我们的团队在过去三年里所完成的工作证明了我们能够在当前周期中主动导航，并在经济下行期间取得比以往更好的结果。
Today, Ansemi is a different and more resilient company, having achieved 2023 non-GAP gross margin of 47.1%, which is 1,440 basis points higher than 2020, the last year in which utilization was at comparable levels. We maintained revenue of $8.3 billion for the year, non-GAP operating margin of 32.3% and delivered $5.16 of non-GAP earnings per share.
如今，Ansemi是一家不同且更有韧性的公司，实现了2023年的非GAP毛利率为47.1%，比2020年高出1,440个基点。我们保持了83亿美元的年度收入，非GAP运营利润率为32.3%，每股非GAP盈利为5.16美元。
For the year, we returned 140% of free cash flow to our shareholders through share repurchases and we have $2.4 billion remaining on the buyback authorization we announced a year ago.
在过去一年里，我们通过股票回购向股东返还了相当于自由现金流的140％，而我们在一年前宣布的回购授权中还剩下24亿美元。
For the fourth quarter, we reported revenue of $2.02 billion, non-GAP gross margin of 46.7% and non-GAP earnings per share of $1.25 all above the midpoint of our guidance.
在第四季度，我们报告了20.2亿美元的营收，非依据普通会计原则的毛利率为46.7%，每股非依据普通会计原则的收益为1.25美元，均超出了我们的指导范围的中点。
Looking at the fourth quarter breakdown by end market, our automotive business of $1.1 billion grew 13% as compared to the quarter a year ago and declined 4% quarter-recorded in line with our expectations. Still, vehicle electrification and advanced safety features are driving upside as demonstrated by a record automotive revenue for image sensors in 2023.
观察按终端市场划分的第四季度数据显示，我们的汽车业务达到了11亿美元，增长了13%，与一年前的同一季度相比，与我们的预期基本一致。尽管如此，车辆电气化和先进安全功能仍在推动增长，正如2023年图像传感器汽车收入创下纪录一样。
Our revenue for industrial was $497 million down 10% versus Q4 2022 and down 19% sequentially as anticipated. All segments have been impacted by macroeconomic factors and slow down in industrial activity.
我们在工业领域的收入为4.97亿美元，较2022年第四季度下降了10%，按预期与上一季度相比下降了19%。所有部门都受到宏观经济因素和工业活动放缓的影响。
Our automotive and industrial revenue accounted for 80% of our business in 2023 as compared to 68% in 2022, following our strategy to shift to high growth megatrends for the sustainable ecosystem.
我们在2023年的汽车和工业收入占据了我们业务的80%，而在2022年只有68%，这是根据我们的战略转向可持续生态系统中的高增长巨变趋势所做的调整。
In Q4, we exited another $30 million of non-core business and for the full year, we exited $180 million. While we expected customers to find alternative options, the remaining non-core portions of our business are now healthy, nearing corporate gross margins and demonstrating the power of our portfolio.
在第四季度，我们退出了另外3,000万美元的非核心业务；而在整个年度，我们共退出了1.8亿美元。尽管我们预计客户会找到替代选择，但我们剩下的非核心业务现在已经健康发展，接近公司毛利润率，并展示了我们企业组合的实力。
Looking at the split between the operating units, revenue for the power solutions group or PSG was $1.1 billion in increase of 4% year-over-year due to an increase in silicon carbide revenue for auto and energy infrastructure. Revenue for the advanced solutions group or ASG was $625 million, 11% decline year-over-year driven by softness and compute and mobile in market. Revenue for the intelligent sensing group or ISG was $308 million, a 13% decrease year-over-year due to a decline in compute and industrial.
看着业务部门之间的分散情况，动力解决方案集团（PSG）的收入为11亿美元，同比增长4%，这是由于汽车和能源基础设施的碳化硅收入增加所致。先进解决方案集团（ASG）的收入为6.25亿美元，同比下降11%，这是由市场上计算和移动设备疲软所导致的。智能感知集团（ISG）的收入为3.08亿美元，同比下降13%，这是由计算和工业行业的下降所引起的。
In the fourth quarter, our gap in non-gap gross margin of 46.7% was above the midpoint of our guidance. A gross margin exceeded expectations despite total utilization, decreasing to 66% from 72% in Q3. Further validating the structural changes we have implemented over the last three years. We should see the full impact of the decline in utilization, materialized in Q1. At East Fishkill, we have already made progress by improving the overall cost structure of the fab, making it 50 basis points less dilutive than expected in the fourth quarter.
在第四季度，我们的非遗传物料毛利率46.7%的差距高于我们预期中值。尽管总利用率从第三季度的72%下降至66%，但毛利率超出了预期。这进一步验证了我们在过去三年实施的结构性变化。我们应该在第一季度看到利用率下降的全面影响。在East Fishkill，我们已经取得了进展，通过优化晶圆厂的整体成本结构，使其比第四季度预期少了50个基点的稀释效应。
Based on our current outlook, we expect to hold our gross margin above the mid-40% floor with utilization in the mid-60% range. Silk and carbide gross margin also remained above 40% with high profit fall-through, and we expect to maintain these levels through 2024.
根据我们目前的预测，我们预计保持毛利率在中等40%以上，利用率在中等60%左右。丝制品和碳化物的毛利率也保持在40%以上，并且有高利润的传导。我们预计在2024年之前能够保持这些水平。
Now let me give you some additional numbers for your models. Gap operating expenses for the fourth quarter were $330 million as compared to $316 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. Non-gap operating expenses were $306 million as compared to $300 million in the quarter a year ago. Gap operating margin for the quarter was 30.3% and non-gap operating margin was 31.6%. Our gap tax rate was 7.8% and our non-gap tax rate was 15.4%. Gap earnings per diluted share for the fourth quarter was $1.28 as compared to $1.35 in the quarter a year ago. Non-gap earnings per share was above the midpoint of our guidance at $1.25 as compared to $1.32 in Q4 of 2022. Our gap diluted share count was 440 million shares and our non-gap diluted share count was 434 million shares.
现在让我为您提供一些额外的数据来完善您的模型。盖普（Gap）公司第四季度的运营费用为3.3亿美元，相比之下，2022年第四季度为3.16亿美元。非盖普（Non-gap）运营费用为3.06亿美元，相比之下，一年前的该季度为3亿美元。盖普运营利润率为30.3%，非盖普运营利润率为31.6%。我们的盖普税率为7.8%，非盖普税率为15.4%。第四季度的盖普每股摊薄收益为1.28美元，相比之下，一年前的该季度为1.35美元。非盖普每股收益为1.25美元，略高于我们的指导中值，相比之下，2022年第四季度为1.32美元。我们的盖普摊薄股权数为4.4亿股，非盖普摊薄股权数为4.34亿股。
In Q4, we were aggressive with our share repurchases and returned 136% of free cash flow to shareholders through $300 million of buybacks. Turning to the balance sheet, cash and cash equivalent was $2.5 billion and we had $1.1 billion on a revolver. Cash from operations was $611 million and free cash flow was $221 million or approximately 11% of revenue.
在第四季度，我们在回购方面采取了积极的态势，并通过3亿美元的回购向股东返还了自由现金流的136%。转向资产负债表，我们的现金及现金等价物为25亿美元，我们还有11亿美元的可撤销贷款。营业活动产生的现金为6.11亿美元，自由现金流为2.21亿美元，约占收入的11%左右。
Capital expenditures during Q4 were $391 million which equates to a capital intensity of 19%. We expect 2024 capital intensity to be in the low teams for the full year ahead of our original plan and driven by our improved silicon carbide manufacturing output on 150 millimeters.
第四季度的资本支出为3.91亿美元，相当于资本密度为19%。我们预计2024年全年的资本密度将低于我们最初的计划，并受到我们在150毫米晶硅碳化物制造方面产量的提升驱动。
Inventory increased by $27 million sequentially and days increased by 13 days to $179. This includes approximately 74 days of bridge inventory to support fab transitions and the silicon carbide ramp. Excluding these strategic builds, our base inventory decreased $52 million sequentially with days of inventory at 105 days.
库存按季度增加了2700万美元，天数增加了13天至179美元。其中，约有74天的库存用于支持工厂转型和碳化硅的提高。如果不考虑这些战略性建设，我们的基本库存按季度减少了5200万美元，库存天数为105天。
We continue to proactively manage distribution inventory. This de-immitory was down $11 million sequentially with weeks of inventory at 7.2 weeks versus 6.9 weeks in Q3. We have been under serving the mass market through this channel while we focused on our LTSA commitment. We expect to replenish the channel in 2024 to service the long tail of customers and expect inventory to start to normalize with increase in inventory levels between 7 and 9 weeks over the next few quarters.
我们继续积极管理分销库存。与第三季度相比，这个库存总量下降了1100万美元，库存周转率为7.2周，而第三季度为6.9周。在我们专注于长期供应协议的承诺期间，我们一直未能满足大众市场的需求。我们预计在2024年补充该渠道以满足大量顾客的需求，并预计库存将在接下来的几个季度中增加到7至9周的水平，逐渐趋于正常化。
Now let me provide you the key elements of our non-gapped guidance for the first quarter. A table detailing our gap and non-gapped guidance is provided in the press release related to our fourth quarter results. Given the current macro environment and our demand visibility, we anticipate Q1 revenue will be in the range of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion with softness across all end markets. We expect non-gapped gross margin to be between 44.5 and 46.5 percent, primarily due to lower factory utilization and continued EFK headwinds. Our Q1 non-gapped gross margin includes share base compensation of $5 million. We expect non-gapped operating expenses of 305 to 320 million including share base compensation of $27 million. We anticipate our non-gapped other income to be a net benefit of $8 million with our interest income exceeding interest expense. This benefit is a result of the debt restructuring activities we have completed over the last two years reducing a significant historical drag on the P&L. We expect our non-gapped tax rate to be in the range of 15.5 to 16.5 percent and our non-gapped diluted share account for the first quarter is expected to be approximately 433 million shares. This results in non-gapped earnings for share to be in the range of 98 cents to $1.10.
现在让我向您提供我们第一季度非调整后指引的关键要素。有关我们第四季度业绩的新闻稿中提供了一张详细说明我们调整后和非调整后指引的表格。考虑到当前的宏观环境和我们的需求可见性，我们预计第一季度的收入将在18亿至19亿美元的范围内，所有终端市场都会出现疲软。我们预计非调整后毛利率将在44.5%至46.5%之间，主要是由于工厂利用率降低和持续的EFK瓶颈所致。我们第一季度的非调整后毛利率包括500万美元的股本报酬。我们预计非调整后营业费用为3.05亿至3.2亿美元，其中包括2700万美元的股本报酬。我们预计非调整后的其他收入将净受益800万美元，其中利息收入超过利息支出。这一盈利是我们过去两年完成的债务重组活动的结果，减少了对损益表的重要历史拖累。我们预计非调整后的税率将在15.5%至16.5%的范围内，预计第一季度非调整后的摊薄股份约为4.33亿股。这将导致每股非调整后的收益在0.98美元至1.10美元的范围内。
We expect capital expenditures of 310 to 340 million dollars in brownfield investments primarily in silicon carbide and EFK. As we navigate through 2024, we'll focus on operational excellence without losing sight of our long-term commitments to our customers and our shareholders. We remain perfectly positioned in the markets where we focus and continue to engage in long-term supply agreements with our strategic customers. We remain confident in our 53 percent long-term gross margin target as we execute our fab right strategy to optimize factory utilization and drive operational efficiencies across the company. With that, I'd like to start the Q&A. I'll turn it over to Liz to open the line.
我们预计在棕地投资中，主要是在碳化硅和EFK领域，资本支出将达到3.1-3.4亿美元。在我们进入2024年之际，我们将专注于卓越运营，同时不忘记对客户和股东的长期承诺。我们在我们关注的市场中保持完美的地位，并继续与战略客户签订长期供应协议。我们对实现53%的长期毛利率目标保持信心，我们将执行我们的晶圆厂正确策略，优化工厂利用率并推动运营效率提升。现在，我想开始问答环节。我将转给Liz来开启对话。
As a reminder, to ask a question, you'll need to press star 1-1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1-1 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Ross Seymour with Deutsche Bank. Hi, guys. Can you hear me? Yep. Great. First question is on the automotive side of things. I guess two parts to it. Silicon carbide side, it sounds like there's a little bit of a difference between the third party estimates and what you're seeing from OEMs. Then last, Courtney, you talked about some weakness emerging in the tier 1 guys in Europe. Can you just give us an update on what you've seen on that side of the business as well?
作为提醒，如果您想提问，请在电话上按星号1-1并等待您的名字被宣布。如果想撤回您的问题，请再次按星号1-1。请稍等我们整理问答名单。首先来自Deutsche Bank的Ross Seymour提问。嗨，大家听得到我说话吗？是的。太好了。第一个问题涉及汽车方面的内容。我猜有两个部分。关于碳化硅方面，似乎第三方的估计和您从原始设备制造商那里得到的信息有些不同。然后，Courtney，您提到在欧洲一级供应商中出现了一些疲软。您能不能给我们更新一下业务的这一方面？
Sure. Yeah, look, we started the year regarding the silicon carbide. You know, all know what the third party estimates are. When you look at customers, even public announced outlook for 2024, the outlook has been tapered down a little bit. From our side, however, it's purely demand driven. The platforms are qualified. The designs have been shipping. The question now is tied to end demand. And that's why we're still very confident in 2X the market growth. The question is, what will the market do in 2024 based on the few announcements that have been made? But it's a demand driven. We'll just tag on to demand.
当然。嗯，看，我们在今年开始关注碳化硅。你知道的，大家都知道第三方的估计是多少。当你看客户，即使是公开宣布的2024年展望，展望也有点下调。然而，从我们这边来看，这纯粹是需求驱动的。这些平台都已经通过了质量认证。设计也已经开始出货。现在的问题就是与最终需求相关的。这就是为什么我们对市场增长预计仍然非常有信心。问题是，基于已经发布的少数公告，市场在2024年会如何发展？但这是需求驱动的。我们只会响应需求。
On the automotive in general, look, we saw softness. I mentioned it in my prepared remarks. It is inventory digestion, but it's also slowing demand. You'll see that in our guide as we work through it. But one thing for us as a very high priority is managing the inventory internally and managing the inventory externally, which means we have been taking utilization down in order to match what we believe the outlook is. And when the outlook recover, we'll get all of that as tailwinds. So that's the cautious approach we've had given the signals we've seen. And we've seen them kind of come in as we've talked about since last quarter because of the LTSAs are giving us that outlook.
总体来说，对于汽车行业，我们看到了柔和的情况。我在准备好的发言中提到了这一点。这是库存消化，但也是需求放缓。在我们进行指导时，您会看到这一点。但对于我们来说，一个非常重要的优先事项是在内部管理库存并在外部管理库存，这意味着我们已经减少利用率以匹配我们的前景。当前景恢复时，我们将获得所有这些作为顺风。所以这是我们因为我们看到的信号而采取的谨慎态度。我们已经看到它们自上个季度以来进入，因为LTSAs向我们提供了这一前景。
Thanks for that. And I guess my follow-up for FAD on the gross margin side looks like you're going to hold the 45 floor you talked about before. Can you just walk us through the puts and takes as the year progresses? And perhaps how big of a headwind is the utilization of 65% is going to be the floor and the utilization side? Approximately how much of an impact is that versus kind of the long-term target of getting back to 53%. Thank you.
谢谢这个。我想对FAD的整体毛利问题进行跟进，看起来你们要维持之前提到的45%的最低值。你能否详细说明随着时间推移，这一情况的成因和变动？另外，65%的利用率对于最低值方面会有多大影响？这个影响力与最终目标回到53%相比有多大？谢谢。
Yeah, Rod. You're absolutely right. So we plan on holding that mid-40% floor. We think utilization will bottom out around the mid-60s. We're pretty close to that now. And if you look at our margin today, I think the company has executed very well, which really shows that our FAB LIDAR strategy that we implemented two years ago has worked very effectively. And as we execute FAB right, we'll continue to derive cost efficiency across that network. What you should think about is every point of utilization is about 15 basis points of gross margin going both ways up and down. So you can kind of think about where we're there. We've proactively taken our utilization down. We started taking it down in late 22. And we're kind of at that point where we think we can manage through this at this level. Thank you.
是的，Rod。你说得完全正确。因此，我们计划将利用率保持在40%以上的水平。我们认为利用率将在60%左右触底。我们现在已经接近这个水平了。如果你看一下我们的利润率，我认为公司执行得非常出色，这实际上证明了我们两年前实施的FAB LIDAR战略非常有效。而且，随着我们正确执行FAB计划，我们将继续在整个网络上实现成本效益。你应该考虑的是，每个利用率点大约对应着15个基点的毛利润，无论是上升还是下降。因此，你可以思考一下我们的情况。我们已经主动降低了利用率。我们从22年底开始降低利用率。我们认为我们可以在这个水平上应对这个问题。谢谢。
Thanks, Rod. Our next question comes from a line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America. Thanks for taking my question. I'm curious, what do you think has helped you avoid some of the deeper 30, 40% kind of peak to trough correction that we have seen at your, you know, several of your peers? And I think kind of related to that, what we're all trying to grapple with, do you think that Q1 is kind of the trough? Because when I listened to Thad talking about utilization and that you're close to the bottom, that suggests Q1 is the trough. But do you think of it that way? And should we be modeling kind of seasonal recovery? So kind of two parts. You know, what has helped you avoid some of the correction? And, you know, from what you can see today is Q1 kind of the relative trough of the cycle for all of them.
感谢Rod的提问。下一个问题来自美国银行的Vivek Arya。感谢您回答我的问题。我想知道，您认为是什么帮助您避免了一些深度为30%至40%的高峰到谷底的修正，而我们看到其他几家同行却没有避免呢？我认为与此相关的是，我们都在努力应对的问题是，您是否认为一季度是谷底？因为当我听到Thad谈到利用率接近底部时，这意味着一季度是谷底。您是否也是这样认为的？我们是否应该推测季节性复苏呢？所以总结起来就是两个问题。首先，是什么帮助您避免了一些修正？其次，根据您现在的观察，一季度是否是整个周期的相对谷底？
Yeah, Vivek, thanks for that question. If you think about what helped us navigate better than a lot of our peers, given the guide of companies that guided already, and like you mentioned, 20, 30%, is really the fact that, you know, we talked about the LTSAs, we talked about how at a minimum, the LTSAs are going to provide us a phone call when things start getting softer. Those phone calls started happening in industrial before anyone talked about industrial softness. I'm talking six quarters ago. That's when we started taking utilization down. That's when we tightened even more what we shipped into the channel to be way closely tied to what we believe the demand is at that point in time. The other thing in automotive, you know, we talked about it in our Q3 earnings. Over 90 days ago, when we talked about we started to see signs because we started getting the calls about the LTSAs and customers wanting to get some relief on the volume. So, those are the tools that we have implemented over the last few years in order to give us that visibility. But it's not, you know, the LTSAs are not going to solve a demand problem. What LTSAs have done is allowed us to prepare what we do in response to a softer demand environment. And you've seen we put a tight management on this inventory. It didn't bubble up. We've actually reduced our utilization. We've reduced our base inventory in dollars. All of these are signs of the resiliency we have in our model, which by the way, all of them will be tailwinds on the other side of that. Now, as far as what we believe the trough is Q1 or not, look, I'm smart enough not to call a bottom until I'm standing on top of the hill looking back at it. So I'll let you know when that happens.
是的，Vivek，谢谢你的问题。如果你想想看，我们是怎么比很多同行更好地导航过来的，考虑到已经提供指导的公司和你所提到的20％、30％，实际上是因为我们谈到了长期技术支持协议（LTSAs），我们谈到了即使是最低限度的LTSAs在事情开始变得艰难时也会给我们打个电话。在任何人谈到工业软化之前，这些电话正在工业领域发生。我指的是六个季度前。那时我们开始降低利用率。那时我们将所发货物比以往更加紧密地与我们认为的需求相结合。另外一点是汽车领域，你知道，我们在第三季度的收益报告中就谈到了这一点。90多天前，当我们开始接到有关LTSAs并希望在量上得到些许缓解的客户的电话时，我们就开始看到迹象了。因此，这些是我们在过去几年中实施的工具，帮助我们获得这种可见性。但不是，LTSAs不会解决需求问题。LTSAs所做的是使我们能够准备好应对需求环境变得较为艰难的情况。你看到我们对库存进行了严格的管理。它没有积聚起来。我们实际上减少了利用率。我们减少了以美元计的基础库存。所有这些都是我们模型的弹性的迹象。顺便说一句，所有这些都将成为未来发展的推动力。至于我们是否相信底部是第一季度还是其他时间，看，我聪明到不会在站在山顶回望时才去宣称底部。所以等我知道的时候会告诉你。
In Silicon Carbide, could you help give us some sense of what it was in Q4, you know, what the auto industrial mix is, what's the implied for Q1? And why tied to a market rate? You know, why not in the past you have given us very specific and absolute numbers because you know, you had those supply agreements. So why not give an absolute number? Why tied to, you know, to a market rate? So just any more quantification of what Silicon Carbide did in Q4, what the implied is for Q1 and then, you know, kind of an absolute number for this year instead of giving tying it to a market rate?
在硅碳化物方面，你能帮我们了解一下第四季度的情况吗？比如汽车工业的组成情况，对第一季度有何影响？为什么与市场利率存在关联呢？你知道，过去你们通常会给出非常具体和绝对的数字，因为你们有供应协议。为什么现在不给出一个具体的数字，而是与市场利率相关呢？所以，能否对硅碳化物在第四季度的业绩做更多量化的描述，对第一季度的影响以及年度的绝对数字？
Yeah. So I'll first cover on in Q4, our revenue for Silicon Carbide went up as we discussed in the Q3 call and as we expected. So it came in line with our expectation. Again, it grew from Q3 to Q4. So that shows, you know, both the diversification and the strength in that business that will also remain in 2024 with the growth we're going to see in 2024.
是的。所以首先，在第四季度，我们的碳化硅收入如我们在第三季度的电话会议中所讨论的一样增加了，也符合我们的预期。因此，它与我们的预期保持一致。它再次从第三季度增长到第四季度。这表明了我们在该业务中的多样化和实力，这种增长也将在2024年继续，我们将在2024年看到更多的增长。
Now the reason we don't talk about absolute numbers is it is a ramping business and it is the lumpiness of a very new ramping business is going to be in Silicon Carbide like it is with any ramping business that is tied to adoption. That's the reason we went to 2x mark. And by the way, it is what we've picked to at our analyst day. So we didn't really change what we do. We changed the short term more on the long term. We've always said we're going to outgrow the market. We're going to be 2x the market. That is our trajectory for the next five years that we discussed in analyst day. And my comments are we will remain committed to that trajectory based on the design ends we have.
现在我们不讨论绝对数字的原因是因为这是一个逐渐增长的业务，并且和任何与采用相关的逐渐增长的业务一样，非常新的逐渐增长的业务的波动性将存在于碳化硅中。这就是为什么我们选择了2倍的标记。顺便说一句，这也是我们在分析师日所选择的。所以我们没有真正改变我们的做法，我们是在短期内更多地关注长期。我们一直说我们要超越市场，成为市场的两倍。这是我们在分析师日讨论的未来五年的轨迹。我的意见是，基于我们拥有的设计终端，我们将继续坚持这一轨迹。
As I mentioned in Ross's question, all the design ends are done. All the shipments have been made for the ramp to start with a very broad range of customers. The question remains what is end demand going to do. And if end demand is better than what we are forecasting, we're going to grow better than what we forecast at 2x the market. That's where I would leave the short term, which is 2024. Thank you.
正如我在罗斯的问题中提到的，所有的设计工作已经完成。所有的货物已经发货，开始与众多客户进行合作。问题仍然是最终需求会如何发展。如果最终需求好于我们预测的，那么我们的增长将超过我们在市场上预测的2倍。这就是我对2024年短期目标的看法。谢谢。
Our next question comes from a line of Chris Dainley with City. Hello? Hello. Great. I got cut off for a second. Anyway, so just a few clarifications on the Silicon Carbide business. Do you still expect to have one major customer this year that's, say, 30, 40% of revenue and then have your pricing expectations for Silicon Carbide changed for this year versus say, three to six months ago?
我们下一个问题来自City的Chris Dainley。你好？你好。非常好。我刚才断线了一会儿。不管怎样，关于碳化硅业务，我有一些澄清的问题。您是否仍然预计今年有一个主要客户，其收入占到总收入的30%至40%，并且与三到六个月前相比，您对碳化硅的定价预期有所变化吗？
Let me cover the pricing. I want to this easier. Pricing has not changed. As we've always discussed, our pricing is tied to the LTSAs, although we will discuss with customers on volume changes depending on ramps or end market as I discussed earlier. Pricing is consistent. Therefore, I'm not seeing any of the pricing impact other than the efficiencies that we get in our, as we improve yields, as we transfer technologies, et cetera. Those are very tied to technology advancements that actually enhance our gross margin. So that's on that.
让我来谈论一下定价问题。我希望这样更容易理解。定价没有变化。正如我们之前讨论过的，我们的定价与长期服务协议(LTSAs)有关，尽管根据之前我所讨论的产能提升或终端市场的变化，我们会和客户进行讨论来调整定价。定价是一致的。因此，除了我们在提高产量、技术转让等方面获得的效率提升外，我并没有看到任何与定价有关的影响。这些效率提升与技术进步密切相关，实际上能提高我们的毛利率。所以就是这样。
As far as customer concentration, we will remain with a few handful of lead customers. That's not going to be any different from 2023. However, as a percent, we're going to see more diversification as we ramp more customers across the worldwide, both in Asia and North America. And you're going to start seeing Europe ramp up in the second half of the year from design wins we've done over the last couple of years. So we will remain with a profile of having key customers. I won't discuss percentage of revenue for each, but I will just keep diversifying as if we predicted in the Q3 call.
就客户集中度而言，我们将继续与少数几个主要客户保持合作。这与2023年并没有什么不同。然而，作为百分比，随着我们在全球范围内开拓更多客户，特别是在亚洲和北美地区，我们将会看到更多的多样化。而且你将会在下半年看到我们在欧洲市场的增长，这是我们在过去几年中获得的设计合同的结果。因此，我们将继续与主要客户保持接触。我不会讨论每个客户收入的百分比，但我们将像在第三季度电话会议中预测的那样继续推动多样化。
Great. Thanks, Asan. And for my follow up, can you just talk a little bit more about your trends and overall expectations for the big two end markets, automotive and industrial? Which one would you expect to start to recover sooner? And do you think that either of them can get much worse from here? Maybe just give us a sense of your confidence in both the markets.
太好了，谢谢，亚山。对于我接下来的问题，你能否详细谈一下关于两个主要终端市场——汽车和工业领域的趋势和整体预期呢？你认为哪一个市场会更早开始复苏？你认为它们中的任何一个会进一步恶化吗？或许你可以给我们一些关于你对两个市场的信心的了解。
Well, I'm laughing. Look, I can only manage and comment of what we see. And therefore, what we see is kind of that inventory digestion and softer end demand. Therefore, that's what we're managing to. I've been very consistent over the last almost two quarters that we're going to manage 2024 as there is no recovery per se. And then if there is one, we'll just take advantage of it and it will become a tailwind across all financial metrics. Margin goes up with utilization, revenue goes up, etc. So that's how we're going to manage.
嗯，我在笑。看，我只能管理和评论我们所看到的情况。因此，我们所看到的情况是存货消化和需求下降。因此，这是我们正在管理的情况。在过去将近两个季度中，我一直非常一致地表示，我们将把2024年作为没有实质性复苏的情况来管理。如果真有复苏，我们将利用它，并在所有财务指标上获得正面影响。利润率随着利用率的提高而上升，收入也会增加，等等。所以这就是我们的管理方式。
Now what I will say though is both of these markets, auto and industrial, two largest markets that we have. We saw the softness, I would say even ahead of a lot of our peers. As I mentioned, we talked about automotive softness in the Q3 quarter. We talked about industrial softness in Q4 22 quarter. So we've seen it, we've managed to it, we've done very well managing to it. And we're going to keep managing to the signals we can control and we can see. And then when they start recovering, we'll take advantage of it as well. But one thing for sure, we're not sitting here ignoring it, just keeping utilization artificially high, hoping for a recovery. And if it doesn't come, then the correction is much harder, which you've seen with some of our peers. We're taking a much more disciplined approach as far as how we address our markets.
现在我想说的是，汽车和工业是我们的两个最大市场。我们可以说，在很多同行之前，我们就已经看到了市场的疲软。正如我之前提到的，我们在第三季度讨论了汽车市场的疲软，在第22季度讨论了工业市场的疲软。所以我们已经看到了，并且成功地应对了市场的疲软情况。我们会继续管理我们可以控制和观察到的信号。而当市场开始恢复时，我们也会利用这个机会。但有一点可以肯定的是，我们不会坐在这里无视市场状况，把利用率人为地保持得很高，希望市场能够恢复。如果没有恢复，那么纠正的难度会更大，这点可以从我们的一些同行身上看到。在处理市场问题时，我们采取了更为纪律严格的方法。
And Chris, to give you a little more color on the Q1 for auto and industrial, we expect both of those in markets to be down kind of high single digits, quarter on quarter on Q1. So we're not seeing a recovery of either one of them yet.
对于汽车和工业领域的Q1问题，我想多说几句，我们预计这两个市场在季度上将下降个位数的高数字。所以我们还没有看到任何一个市场的复苏。
Great, thanks guys. Our next question comes from the line of Toshiahari with Goldman Sachs. Hello, can you hear me? Yep. Sorry about that. Yeah, I had to as well. Thank you for taking the question. As on in your prepared remarks, you talked about your automotive, image sensor business. I think hitting or exceeding the billion dollars in 23. You also talked about design wins being up 50% year over year. How are you thinking about that business specifically in 24? And can you speak to the profitability of that business as you continue to enforce more than in the past?
太好了，谢谢大家。我们下一个问题来自高盛的Toshiahari。你好，听得到我说话吗？是的，抱歉。是的，我也是。感谢您答疑。在你的准备讲话中，你提到了你们的汽车图像传感器业务。我想知道在2023年，你们是否能达到或超过十亿美元的业务规模。你还提到设计胜利数量较去年增长了50%。你对于这个业务在2024年的前景怎么看？你能谈一下你们在过去加强这个业务时的盈利能力吗？
Yeah. Look, the business, given that the business is tied to auto and industrial, over 90% of our revenue in image sensor is auto and industrial. That has been a very active, really transition over the last few years, moving our capacity to auto and industrial where a lot of the growth has been away from the consumer and the webcams and all of that. So that transition is behind us. Therefore, what I'm seeing from a financial performance, the margin performance is much better than it's ever been. It's hired on the corporate average, so it is actually a creative and profitability is in, I would say, around the corporate as we maintain op-ex in that business and invest in innovation like the eight megapixels and the FAF transfers. As far as the mixed change from outside to inside, that's more of a longer term. We sampled our products out of East Fishkill, but until that ramps and becomes a meaningful percent of revenue, you're not going to see an impact on margin from a mixed change to an internal sourcing. But that will be part of our, call it, outlook as we get to the 53% margin model for the company. That will be a contributor.
是的。看，鉴于我们的业务与汽车和工业相关，图像传感器的收入中超过90%来自汽车和工业领域。在过去几年中，我们一直在积极地进行转型，将我们的产能从消费者和网络摄像头等领域转向汽车和工业领域，因为这里有很多增长机会。所以这个转型已经完成了。因此，从财务表现来看，毛利率表现比以往任何时候都要好。它高于公司平均水平，所以实际上对盈利能力有正面影响，我们会维持在该业务中的运营费用并投资创新，例如八百万像素和FAF传输。至于从外部到内部的混合变化，这更多是长期的。我们已经从东费什基尔采样了我们的产品，但在其产量增加并成为收入的重要组成部分之前，你不会在利润率上看到混合变化的影响。但这将是我们公司实现53%利润率目标的一部分。这将是一个贡献者。
That's great. Thank you. And then as my follow up, that's kind of where I wanted to go. Long-term gross margins, maybe for FAD. So you're reiterating the 53% medium to long term. In the past, you've talked about the FAB divestitures contributing to gross margin expansion. You talked a little bit about EFK. I think SIC should normalize and you've got utilization rates hopefully marching higher over time. I guess my question is, in the 2027 model, the revenue assumption was somewhere in the 13 billion plus to maybe 14.5 billion range. Do you need to get to those revenue levels to hit 53% gross margin? Or do you think you can hit those levels even at a significantly lower revenue level given the progress you've made on multiple fronts?
太棒了。谢谢。然后作为我的后续问题，这就是我想要探讨的地方。长期毛利率，也许是对FAD的。所以你再次强调了中长期的53%。过去，你曾经谈到FAB的出售有助于提高毛利率。你也谈到了一些关于EFK的事情。我认为SIC应该能够恢复正常，而且你希望随着时间的推移利用率能够提高。我的问题是，在2027年的模型中，预计收入会在130亿到145亿美元左右。你需要达到这些收入水平才能达到53%的毛利率吗？或者你认为即使在较低的收入水平上，由于你在多个方面取得的进展，你也能够实现这些水平呢？
Thank you. Yeah, so it's FAD. I don't think the March to the 53% gross margin is revenue dependent. Clearly, we've got a tailwind as we crank up utilization as the market normalizes and recovers in the outer years. But we don't look at it given our current manufacturing footprint. We don't look at that as the primary driver being revenue. You nailed it, right? It's the utilization. It's the EFK getting that cost under control. It's the monetization of the divested fabs that were divested in 2022. And then it's the ramping of these new products that are accreted to gross margins. All of that will give us the tailwind that gets us there. Clearly, we've got to have some growth from here, but we don't need to have that growth that you talked about. So we look at it much more as internally controlled, but what we can execute to versus a demand driven, revenue driven number.
谢谢。是的，这是一种趋势。我认为达到53%毛利率与收入无关。显然，随着市场在未来几年逐渐恢复正常，我们会在利用率上得到一股有利风；但从我们当前的制造基地来看，我们并不将其视为收入的主要驱动因素。你理解得对，对吗？关键在于利用率，控制成本，以及对在2022年剥离的工厂进行利用。然后，通过加速推出这些新产品，提高毛利率。所有这些都会给我们带来有利的助力。显然，我们必须在此基础上保持一定的增长，但我们不需要你所说的那种增长。所以从我们来看，更注重的是我们能够执行的内部控制因素，而不是依靠需求和收入驱动的数字。
Thank you. Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Gary Mobley with Wells Fargo. Hi, guys. Can you hear me? Yep. All right. Sorry, the operator keeps cutting out. I guess for everybody. Thad, you mentioned that, I believe you mentioned that 2-1 represents the bottom for utilization, manufacturing utilization for the year. And given that we've seen your inventory increase in days for four consecutive quarters, should we read into that as if you're also saying that 2-1 represents the bottom for the fiscal year for revenue?
谢谢，谢谢。下一个问题来自富国银行的加里·莫布利。嗨，伙计们。你们能听到我说话吗？是的。好的。抱歉，操作员一直在中断。我想大家都有这个问题。塞德，你提到，我相信你提到2-1代表了整个年度制造业利用率的底部。鉴于我们看到你们的库存增加了四个连续季度，我们是否可以这样理解，2-1也代表了财年收入的底部？
No, I look, I think it's not an answer to that earlier. We're not calling it bottom here. In terms of utilization, we think we're going to be in this kind of mid-60% range until the market normalizes and starts to return to the levels that we saw earlier in the year and in 2022. So utilization will kind of stay at this level.
不，我来看一下，我认为这不是之前的问题的答案。我们这里并没有称之为底部。就利用率而言，我们认为在市场恢复正常并开始回到今年早些时候和2022年的水平之前，我们的利用率将保持在大约60%左右。因此，利用率将会保持在这个水平。
In terms of inventory, if you look at what we've been doing, we've actually been growing what we call our strategic inventory, Silicon Carbide and the FAB transition. If you look at the inventory, what I call our working inventory or base inventory, it was actually down $52 million sequentially. Days were up just because the COG's number was a lower number. But we've been managing that very effectively and kind of in a good tight range here.
就库存而言，如果你看看我们所做的事情，实际上我们一直在不断增加我们所称之为战略库存的碳化硅和工厂转型。如果你看我们的库存，我所说的工作库存或基础库存实际上是按顺序减少了5200万美元。库存周转天数增加仅仅是因为成本的数字较低。但我们一直在非常有效地管理这个，并在一个很好的紧密范围内进行。
I expect as we go through the year, we'll build a little bit more of this strategic inventory in terms of dollars. But we'll burn that up over a multi-year period that's always been in our plan as we exit those FABs and start to bring that production into our internal FABs. So we're actually, in terms of base inventory, we're happy where we are. It's helpful, Ted.
我预计随着一年的过去，我们会在美元方面建立一些更多的战略库存。但我们会在多年的时间内耗尽它，这一直是我们的计划，因为我们退出那些工厂并开始将生产转入我们内部的工厂。所以就基本库存来说，我们对目前的情况感到满意。这很有帮助，Ted。
For you, Hassan, I know that you began to highlight your analog and mixed signal platforms that your may analyze, stayably. That was maybe the first time that you're really vocal on it. And maybe if you can give us an idea of where that ramp stands, how material can it be as we look through the balance of TISCLI or maybe into TISCLI or 25? Yeah.
对于你来说，Hassan，我知道你开始强调你可能分析的模拟和混合信号平台，并保持稳定。这可能是你第一次真正发出声音。如果你能给我们一个关于此阶段进展的理念，那对后续的TISCLI平衡或TISCLI 25来说会有多重要呢？是的。
So, look, the fact that I'm highlighting it in my prepared remarks tells you, I'm excited I am about the progress that we've made with a brand new platform. So as far as technology development, technology development is actually on track, a little bit ahead of schedule. As far as products are concerned, we've already taped out a few of our lead products. We will be sampling here in early 24. And then obviously, there's a design cycle before you get to revenue.
所以，看吧，我在我的准备好的发言中强调这一点，告诉你们我对我们的全新平台取得的进展感到非常激动。就技术开发而言，实际上已经按计划进行，并且稍微超前于进度。就产品而言，我们已经完成了一些主要产品的测试。我们将在2024年初开始进行样品发送。然后显然在实现收入之前还需要一个设计周期。
So from all leading indicators of one, the competitiveness of the platform and two, the competitiveness of the products and the options that I see from, early adoption that I see from customers, all of those are at or ahead where we thought that technology will get us. We'll hear more about it as we get through 2024 about what that technology platform is. But I will tell you, it is the most competitive mixed signal analog platform that exists in the market today. And it will carry with it products that are highly synergistic with what we do on the power side of it. So very complimentary driver's controllers, as Sadeer mentioned in the analyst day. So we remain on track. I'm more bullish than I was when we did analyst day given the progress and we will continue to push forward through 2024. Thank you. Thank you.
根据我所了解的所有主要指标，无论是关于平台竞争力还是产品竞争力和选项的竞争力，我们在技术方面的进展都达到了或超过了我们预期的水平。随着我们逐步进入2024年，我们将会听到更多关于这种技术平台的信息。但我可以告诉你，这是目前市场上存在的最具竞争力的混合信号模拟平台。而且它将带来与我们在电力领域非常协同的产品。正如Sadeer在分析师日提到的，这些产品将与我们的驱动控制器非常互补。所以我们的发展进展仍然在计划之内。鉴于取得的进展，我比分析师日时更为看好，并将继续推进到2024年。谢谢。谢谢。
Our next question will come from the line of Joshua Pucaltar with TD Callan. Hey guys, thank you for taking my question in the morning. I want to follow up on an earlier question. I think the conventional view is that silicon carbide is constrained and you're in a lot of your peer commentary seems to be shifting into more demand focus right now. I guess to ask it simply, do you still view silicon carbide as constrained and given we are moving towards more demand signals now, how are you managing investment levels given all the efforts and long lead times that a lot of your vertical integration efforts take? Thank you.
我们的下一个问题来自TD Callan的Joshua Pucaltar。嗨，大家早上好，感谢你们回答我的问题。我想追问之前的问题。我认为惯常观点是硅碳化物受限，而你们的同行评论似乎正在转向更多的需求关注。简单来说，你们是否仍然认为硅碳化物受限？考虑到我们现在正朝着更多需求信号的方向发展，你们如何管理投资水平，考虑到许多垂直整合工作所需的努力和长时间前期工作？谢谢。
Yeah, from a supply, if you look at a lot of the fabs and the capacity that the whole industry has talked about versus a trajectory of growth for electrification in general, I do believe that technology will remain constrained. Now, of course, in the short term, the capacity for 2024 to a first order is put in place. So it is the demand driven. But that goes back to the lumpiness of the ramp that we've always talked about. So I don't see that as additional capacity or overcapacity given that it is temporary in nature and the growth is going to remain.
是的，从供应的角度来看，如果你看一下许多晶圆厂和整个行业所讨论的产能与电动化的整体增长轨迹，我相信技术将继续受限。当然，在短期内，2024年的产能基本上已经到位了。所以这是由需求驱动的。但这又回到我们一直谈论的增长的不连续性。因此，我认为这并不是额外的产能或过剩产能，因为它是暂时的性质，而增长将会继续。
The way we are managing it, of course, is a lot of it is internally driven. Majority of our substrate, majority of our supply is generated internally. And we modulate that as we convert to 8-inch, we talked about taking utilization down in the last quarter's earning, capital intensity will be down in 2024. And that's because we've been performing better on our 6-inch and therefore we're able to ramp 8-inch faster than we originally expected. So we're going to modulate this internal external supply in order to tag on to what we see as a demand signal. So we don't see a underloading above and beyond what you see in the company and we'll manage it that way because revenue is going to recover.
我们目前的管理方式，当然是很大程度上由内部驱动的。我们的大部分基板和供应都是内部产生的。随着我们转向8英寸，我们会相应调整利用率，我们在上季度的收益报告中已经提到过，资本密度将在2024年降低。这是因为我们在6英寸方面的表现更好，所以我们能够比最初预期更快地推进8英寸的生产。因此，我们将调整内外部供应以跟随我们所看到的需求信号。因此，我们不认为公司外部会出现超负荷的情况，我们会以这种方式进行管理，因为收入将会恢复。
EVs are going to keep growing. Whether it's 20 to 30, 30 to 40, it doesn't matter. It's going to grow and it's a multi-decade growth given that the penetration of silicon carbide in EVs is still below 25% and EVs in general are below 25%. A lot of upside in that business does not change our outlook for the mega trend and we will continue to invest in the long term.
电动车市场将会持续增长。无论是从20%到30%还是从30%到40%，都无关紧要。市场将蓬勃发展，并且在未来几十年内将有长期增长。这是因为碳化硅在电动车市场的渗透率仍然低于25%，而整体电动车的普及率也低于25%。在这一领域存在巨大的增长潜力，这不会改变我们对于这一大趋势的展望，我们将继续进行长期投资。
And Josh, for the investments over the long term, we can modulate our investments very easily because we have a capital light strategy of converting from 6-inch to 8-inch. Our fabs are already 8-inch capable. So as we think about substrates, we can convert slowly versus having to go out and do green filled investments of a new fab, new facility and having to bring that up. So as the market takes off, we can modulate our investments correspondingly in an equal basis depending on what's happening and move very quickly to bring on capacity as needed.
嗨，乔什，就长期投资而言，我们可以非常容易地调节我们的投资，因为我们有一个资本轻量化的策略，可以从6英寸转向8英寸。我们的晶圆厂已经具备8英寸的能力。因此，在考虑基板时，我们可以逐步进行转换，而不必进行全新的晶圆厂、新设施的绿地投资，并将其引入。因此，随着市场的发展，我们可以根据情况相应地平衡调节我们的投资，并根据需要迅速增加生产能力。
I think it was a lot of helpful context there. As my follow up, I believe in the prepared remarks you mentioned that at some point in 2024, you were going to look to refill the channel. Could you maybe provide some context of what signals you would need to see to go ahead and do that? I know you mentioned you're not planning on a recovery but is a recovery needed to get you to refill the channel and I guess how much of a revenue tailwind would you expect that to be? Thank you.
我认为那里提供了很多有帮助的背景信息。作为我的后续问题，我相信你在准备的发言中提到，到2024年某个时间点，你将考虑重新填充渠道。你能否提供一些背景信息，说明你需要看到什么信号才能开始进行这些工作？我知道你提到你没有计划恢复，但是是否需要恢复才能让你重新填充渠道，我想知道这将给营收带来多大的推动作用？谢谢。
Yeah, in the prepared remarks, I said we're going to start replenishing 7-9 weeks. We're at 7.2 this quarter. We need to start filling that channel now. We're under serving that mass market. So if you look over the last few years, we were supply constraint so we starved the long tail and then we focused on our strategic LPSA customers and again continue to starve that long tail. So we do need to start replenishing that. I think for the first quarter, you may see us go up in terms of weeks, go up a week plus or minus. But keep in mind on this revenue basis, it's likely down in terms of dollars. But we're going to be thinking about it that way is we've got to actually start moving inventory into that channel to support that longer tail. So you think about all those customers, that broad set of customers industrial, through the catalog, we have not been servicing them well. Our distributors have been putting orders on us. They actually want to hold more inventory than what we've allowed them to hold. So we've got to start replenishing that. But we don't see a big step function here as much as just a gradual increase over the course of several quarters.
是的，在我事先准备的讲话中，我说我们打算开始在7-9周内补充库存。我们这个季度是7.2周。我们现在需要开始填充那个渠道。我们对大众市场的服务不足。所以如果你看过去几年，我们供应不足，所以我们忽略了长尾市场，而只专注于战略性的LPSA客户，继续忽略长尾市场。所以我们确实需要开始补充库存。我认为在第一季度，你可能会看到我们在周数上升一周左右。但要记住，就收入而言，它可能会在美元方面下降。但我们要考虑的是我们必须实际上开始将库存移动到那个渠道，以支持更长的销售周期。所以想想那些客户，广泛的工业客户，通过目录销售的客户，我们一直未能为他们提供良好服务。我们的分销商对我们投放了订单。他们实际上希望持有更多的库存，而我们并没有允许他们这样做。所以我们必须开始补充库存。但我们并不认为这会有一个大的步进函数，而只是在几个季度内逐渐增加。
Thank you, Dad. Our next question will come from a line of Christopher Roland with Susquehanna.
谢谢，爸爸。下一个问题由Christopher Roland与Susquehanna的电话在排队中提问。
Hey, guys. Thanks for the question. Can you guys talk about your overall levels of LPSAs? And then if you can, double-click into sick LPSAs. I think you've given industrial in the past as well, anything there. And then the update on the sick customer from last quarter, did they come back and did you fill them this quarter or what are your expectations there? Thank you.
嗨，大家。感谢提问。你们能谈谈你们整体LPSA水平吗？然后，如果可以的话，详细谈谈患病LPSA的情况。我记得你们之前提到过工业方面的情况，有没有任何变化？还有，上个季度患病的客户有没有回来，这个季度你们是否满足了他们的需求，还是有什么期望？谢谢。
Yeah, so our LPSAs for the next 12 months, the value is $4.8 billion. The breakdown of what that looks like roughly is about 80% auto, about 17% industrial and the rest kind of in that other bucket. So that gives us that view over the next 12 months of the LPSA coverage.
是的，所以我们未来12个月内的LPSA（许可产品与服务协议）价值为48亿美元。大致上来看，大约80%是汽车领域，约占17%是工业领域，剩下的部分处于其他领域。这就是我们对未来12个月内LPSA覆盖范围的估计。
Yeah, as far as, look, I don't want to comment about the specific customers. But it came exactly as we guided last quarter and overall it came higher than Q3. So we said last time that we'll keep ramping, we'll keep ramping through 24. And that's coming in exactly as we expected. So that temporary, I would say, demand signal that, in fact, before is behind us and we're moving forward with the ramp.
是的，就目前而言，我不想评论具体的客户。但是它与我们上一季度的指导完全相符，并且整体上比第三季度高。因此，我们上次说过我们将继续逐步推进，并且这正按照我们的预期进行。因此之前的那种临时需求信号已经过去，我们正在继续推进。
Great. Thank you. In terms of your non-core customers, if you could update us there, are we done with that at this point? Do you keep any remaining? Any other thoughts there would be great?
太好了，谢谢您。关于您的非核心客户，如果您能向我们更新一下，现在我们在这方面处理完了吗？还有没有剩余的客户？如果有其他想法，也请告诉我们，那会很棒的。
Yeah, Chris, when we rolled this out, we thought we would exit somewhere between $800 and $900 million over a multi-year period. And as you know, we've over-called this for a couple of years now. I think that gives you an indication of the value that we bring to these customers. So for the year we exited $180 million, think about over the multi-year periods of about $475 million. What's remaining is good, healthy business at the corporate average. So as we've said, at this point, if our customers haven't found another source, we're just going to consider this good business as long as we don't need that capacity. So we'll continue to support those customers. Those customers are valuing that and valuing our ability to support them because we provide them mini products, not just these products we're talking about. So we're not going to talk about exits any further, it'll just be in our baseline.
是的，克里斯，当我们推出这个项目时，我们原本预计在多年期间会获得8亿到9亿美元的退出收益。如你所知，我们在过去的几年中高估了这一数字。我想这表明了我们为客户带来的价值。所以今年我们获得了1.8亿美元的收益，考虑到多年期间大约为4.75亿美元。剩下的是健康的、不错的企业平均水平的业务。正如我们所说，目前来看，如果客户没有找到其他供应源，只要我们不需要那些产能，我们就会将这视为良好的业务。所以我们将继续支持这些客户。这些客户重视我们的产品和能力，因为我们为他们提供各种小型产品，而不仅仅是我们正在讨论的这些产品。所以我们不会继续讨论退出收益，它将成为我们的基准。
Perfect. Thank you, Tom. Our next question will come from the line of Queen Bolton with Needham.
很好。谢谢你，汤姆。接下来的问题将来自于Needham的女王·博尔顿。
He gets thanks for taking my question. First of all, as Son, you mentioned the diversification of the Silicon-Caribite business in Asia. And I think specifically called out Korea, US, and then Europe, just wondering if you could comment. How do you feel positioned in China, both with the battery electric vehicles and the hybrids?
他因为回答我的问题而受到感谢。首先，作为您之前提到的旭硅碳业务在亚洲的多元化发展，您特别提到了韩国、美国和欧洲，我想知道您对中国的位置如何，无论是在电池电动车领域还是混合动力领域，您能否发表一下意见？
Yeah, actually our position in China is we're very well positioned. I think last quarter we talked about having LTSAs with the top five China OEMs, both qualified and ramping revenue. But again, it's tied to the end demand commentary I put before. So all our ducks in a row, as far as the platforms, the qualification on these platforms, the early ramps on these platforms, that's both sick and IGBT, as I mentioned. Both are seen the growth on electrification in general, all flavors of electrification. But we feel pretty good about our success and our exposure in China for EV. And that's by the way, I would extend that to the industrial side of it with energy storage is the same commentary with our engagement with the OEMs. A lot of them are based in China.
是的，实际上我们在中国的地位非常良好。我记得上个季度我们提到与中国五大原始设备制造商（OEM）签署了长期技术支持协议（LTSAs），其资格合格并具有持续收入。但我之前提到的这一切都与最终需求的评论有关。所以就我们在平台、平台资格和早期上升的情况来说，我们将一切都安排得井井有条，我之前提到的就是硅控晶体管（SICK）和绝缘栅双极晶体管（IGBT）。我提到的这两种产品都在电气化方面看到了增长，电气化的各种形式都有。但对于我们在中国电动汽车（EV）方面的成功和市场曝光，我们感觉非常好。顺便说一句，这同样适用于与OEM合作的工业部门，特别是能源储存领域，我们与许多OEM的合作都是在中国进行的。
Thank you for that. And just a question on the utilization rates. What gives you the confidence that the utilization will sort of hold them in 60s? Obviously, kind of an uncertain demand environment. Inventory needs to be reduced. Is it just the visibility of the LTSAs? Give you the fact that you've been able to reduce sort of normal inventory by 50 million at this utilization rate. Just how do you feel confident holding the line there on utilization?
谢谢你的回答。关于利用率问题，你是如何确信它们能保持在60%的？显然，需求环境有一些不确定性，需要减少库存。是仅仅因为长期技术服务协议（LTSAs）的可见性吗？鉴于在当前利用率下，您已经成功将正常库存减少了5000万，您对维持利用率的信心是如何的呢？
Thanks. Yeah, it's exactly that. I mean, we get visibility through the LTSAs, but more importantly, we've been managing that base inventory. It's down at a working level. We have not. We have an over-ship tour of DISTAs. We've kept our working base inventory at optimal levels here. And so as we look forward, in the current market dynamics, we feel like we can hold that mid-60s just because of where we are in an inventory position. We don't need to take it lower if because we're not over-imintowered anywhere. And the fact that we've got to start shipping into the channel to support that mass market, we're going to have to build some products for that as well. And that's that broad-based product line. It's not something specific to silicon carbide. So that's what gives us the confidence of where we are here, given the current market dynamics. Got it. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question. We'll come from the line, Joseph Moore, with Morgan Stanley. Great. Thank you. You guys have talked about some automotive deceleration and are running the business conservative. When I look at your automotive revenue, you're down low single-digit sequentially in Q4. You're still up double digits year on year, which is kind of. There's a gamut of companies guiding for a bunch of different kind of use of autos, but everybody's kind of in that same ballpark. So maybe could you talk to the year on year growth, how much of that is silicon carbide in silicon carbide minus the IGBTs it replaces and how much of that is just general autos. Just it seems like the numbers are a little bit better than maybe your conservatism would imply. I'm trying to tie all the. So what we.
谢谢。是的，确实如此。我的意思是，通过LTSAs，我们能够获得可见性，但更重要的是，我们一直在管理基本库存。它已经处于一个可工作的水平。我们并没有。我们有一个DISTA的超发量。我们在这里保持了我们的工作基本库存在最佳水平。因此，从当前市场动态来看，我们觉得我们可以保持在60多岁，因为我们在库存位置上所处的位置。如果我们没有超过任何地方，我们就不需要将其降低。而且，事实上，我们不得不开始向渠道进行输出以支持大规模市场，我们也必须为此建立一些产品。这就是广泛产品线。这与碳化硅无关。因此，鉴于当前的市场动态，我们对我们当前的位置非常有信心。明白了，谢谢。谢谢。我们下一个问题从Joseph Moore，摩根斯坦利的线路来。好的。谢谢。你们已经谈到了一些汽车的减速，正在谨慎经营业务。当我看到你们的汽车收入时，你们在第四季度的按季度下降了个位数，但同比仍然增长了两位数，这有点。有很多公司对汽车的使用提出了不同的预测，但大家都差不多在那个范围。所以也许你可以谈谈同比增长，其中多少是碳化硅，而碳化硅减去了它所替代的IGBTs，又有多少是普通汽车。只是看起来数字比你们的保守估计要好一些。我在努力把所有的事情联系起来。
I guess in general, if you take out silicon carbide, the silicon business declined. I guess that's the. At a high level, the silicon business declined. If we look at the amount of decline and declined with what the expected market declined based on the early reports that I'm starting to see in general. So I don't think our business is an outlier from the market and maybe an outlier for what some of our peers and some of what others have said. But for us, we're tied more to market because we've been taking a very disciplined approach about what to ship based on the LTSAs and the discussions we've had with the customers that have been ongoing. So I think we feel pretty good about our response to demand signals being pretty quick as far as taking, you know, utilization down in response to it and making sure we don't build inventory in the channel in response to it or at the direct customers, as a matter of fact. So between these two, I think automotive came in line, except, you know, a few of the strengths and pockets like we talked about in Image Sensor, which is a content growth and an ASP growth approach here.
我想总体来说，如果我们剔除了碳化硅，硅业务就会下降。我觉得这是一个普遍情况。从一个高层次来看，硅业务有所下降。如果我们看看下降的幅度，并与早期报告中预期的市场下降相比较，我认为我们的业务并不是市场的异常情况，也许是一些同行和其他人所说的异常情况。但对我们来说，我们更多地与市场联系在一起，因为我们一直在根据长期供应协议和与客户的讨论来纪律性地决定出货数量。所以我认为，我们对需求信号的响应相当迅速，以降低利用率，并确保不在渠道或直接客户处建立库存。所以在这两方面，我认为汽车业务已经逐渐回归正常，除了一些像我们在图像传感器领域已经谈到的强项和发展模式，这是一个内容增长和平均销售价格增长的方法。
Okay, great. Thank you very much. Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Harsh Kumar with Piper Sandler.
好的，非常好。非常感谢你。谢谢。下一个问题将由Piper Sandler的Harsh Kumar提出。
Yeah, hey, guys. Jen's first of all congratulations on doing a lot better than it appears, but I am giving you a loaded complement because other companies are guiding down 10 to 20 percent on a sequential basis. You're guiding down a lot smaller. Do you think you're cutting enough? In other words, why not go ahead and cut a lot more? And then part two of the question is, is you're being demand stays at this level and we know that, you know, we don't know where the demand will go. But at this 65-something percent utilization, how many quarters of excess inventory do you think you might have?
嘿，大家好。首先祝贺各位做得比表面看起来要好很多，但我给你们一种含蓄的赞美，因为其他公司在环比基础上的指导下调幅度是10%到20%。你们的下调幅度要小得多。你们认为你们已经削减得足够了吗？换句话说，为什么不再削减更多呢？然后问题的第二部分是，如果需求维持在这个水平，我们知道我们不知道需求将会如何变化。但以65%左右的利用率来看，你们认为可能会有多少个季度的过剩库存？
Yeah. Look, I'll cover the first one and then a little bit on the second question. Look, it's not a matter of did we cut enough and did we do enough. We are guiding based on our level of visibility and based on our very close engagement with the customers. Where we guided is where we believe and, you know, based on the court of progression where we believe the customers need from us. So it is a demand-driven signal. Now, the difference between, you know, our smaller reduction in the first quarter versus some of the larger reductions from some of our peers is historical. You know, we've been tapering down a lot of our, what we shift to customers and we believe we've been closer and more in line with demand that our customers need versus some of our peers that don't have that same visibility levels with whatever construct they have on whether LTSAs or, you know, similar program. We believe the LTSAs gave us that visibility. We have been engaged with customers earlier than most of our peers and we believe we have been closer to what a real demand signal is and therefore changes to demand signals are not as drastic as with some of our peers. So when we talk about our guide is better than some of our peers, I think our business in where we are with our business, we put ourselves in a much better position than some of our peers. And you can see that, by the way, not just on the revenue, you can see that on our utilization, you can see that on our base inventory, you can see that on our channel inventory. All of these are better and show better discipline than some of our peers that had a much larger correction. So we don't see this as a quote unquote correction. What we see it is a view and a transparent view of what we believe demand is going to do in the first quarter.
是的，看，我来先解释第一个问题，然后稍微谈一下第二个问题。事实并不在于我们削减了足够多还是做得够多。我们的指导是基于我们的可见度水平和与客户的密切互动。我们的指导是我们根据进展的局面认为客户需要的。因此这是一个需求驱动的信号。现在，我们在第一季度的较小削减与一些同行的较大削减之间的差异是由历史决定的。我们一直在逐渐减少向客户提供的产品，我们相信我们更接近并与客户需求更一致，而一些同行没有同样的可见度水平，无论是在长期技术支持协议还是类似方案方面。我们相信长期技术支持协议给了我们这种可见度。我们与客户的接触比大多数同行更早，我们相信我们对真正需求信号更接近，因此需求信号的变化不像一些同行那样剧烈。因此，当我们谈到我们的指导比一些同行更好时，我认为我们的业务和我们的业务状况使我们处于比一些同行更好的位置。而这一点你可以看到，不仅在收入上，也在我们的利用率上，在我们的基础库存上，在我们的渠道库存上都能看到。所有这些都比一些同行更好，并且展示出比他们更好的纪律性。因此，我们并不把这看作是所谓的纠正行动，而是我们对第一季度需求预测的透明观点。
Yeah, harsh on the utilization, just to remind you, we started taking utilization down in Q3 of 2022 as we saw at the office in industrial at that time. So if you look at our base inventory, we've managed it very effectively. If you really think about utilization, it's been a soft landing in terms of utilization. We weren't in a position where we got over inventory, too much inventory in the channel and had to take it down hard. So at these levels, it's what gives us confidence that this mid 60s that we can hold here.
是的，就利用率来说有一点严格，只是提醒您，我们在2022年第三季度开始降低利用率，因为那个时候我们在办公和工业方面的情况看到了。所以如果您看我们的基础库存，我们已经非常有效地管理了它。如果真的考虑利用率，从利用率方面来说，我们有一个较为缓和的过渡期。我们没有处于库存过剩的情况，渠道上的库存太多而不得不大幅度降低。所以在这个水平上，这就是给我们信心的原因，让我们相信我们可以保持这个中等60多的水平。
And this is very helpful. And that's my follow up. So I should I think of your Silicon Carbide business as having a starting point of about a billion dollars in 2024 because that capacity, I believe, that came on the $200 million. From my understanding, we allocated to other customers. And then part two of the question is you made a very subtle but I think important common that something to the tune of, you're already running 200 millimeter Silicon Carbide in the fabs or maybe on trial there. Could you just expand on that?
这非常有帮助。这是我的后续问题。所以我认为你的碳化硅业务在2024年的起点大约会达到10亿美元，因为我相信那个能力(20亿美元)已经投入了2亿美元用于其他客户。然后问题的第二部分是，你提到了一点非常微妙但我认为重要的事情，就是你已经在工厂中或者在试验中运行了200毫米的碳化硅。你能详细说明一下吗？
Yeah. So look, I'm not going to give an absolute guide on Silicon Carbide. What I would say is two X to market. We feel comfortable with two X to market given all of the platforms and given the customers and the ramps that we've seen. The question now is on end demand. But end demand is better. We're going to grow better. End demand is where we believe it is. We're going to grow at that. But it will be two X to market. And that's showing both an aggressive ramp and share gains. So that's on the outlook for 2024. As far as the 200 millimeter, this one, it was it was more, I would say, I thought it was a more a direct comment because what we've always said is we're going to qualify. 200 millimeter in 2024 and ramp in 2025. So my prepared remarks is purely highlighting the fact we are on track to achieve that goal that we set out, which is qualifying in 24 ramp and revenue ramp in 25. It's already running in the fab, which is a pretty good leading indicator of where our qual and our confidence in the qual is going to be in 24.
是的。所以看，我不会给出关于碳化硅的绝对指南。我想说的是市场规模将达到两倍。考虑到我们看到的所有平台、客户和增长，我们对市场规模翻倍感到满意。现在的问题是最终需求。但最终需求会更好。我们会实现更好的增长。我们相信最终需求所在的领域。我们将在那个领域实现两倍的市场规模。这将展示出积极的增长和份额的提升。所以这就是2024年的展望。至于200毫米，这个话题，我觉得这是一个更直接的评论，因为我们一直说过我们将在2024年进行认证工作，然后在2025年推出。所以我的讲话纯粹是强调我们正在按计划推进，也就是在2024年进行认证工作，在2025年开始盈利。它已经在工厂中运行，这是对我们对认证工作和对认证工作信心的一个相当好的领先指标。
Very helpful, guys. Thank you. That concludes today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Asana O'Korri for closing remarks.
非常有帮助，伙计们。谢谢你们。今天的问题与回答环节就到此为止了。我想把主持权交回给Asana O'Korri作闭幕致辞。
Through the structural changes we've made over the last three years, we've built the resilience required in our business to navigate a dynamic macro environment. We've remained close to our customers. We are committed to our financial target model with our strategy of enabling the sustainable ecosystem. Again, we'd like to thank our worldwide teams for their continued tenacity and ongoing contributions to the company's success. And thank you for joining our call today.
通过我们在过去三年中所做的结构性改变，我们构建了应对不断变化的宏观环境所需的韧性。我们始终与我们的客户保持密切联系。我们致力于实现可持续生态系统的目标模式和战略。再次感谢我们全球团队持续的坚韧不拔和对公司成功的不断贡献。谢谢大家今天参加我们的通话。
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
今天的电话会议到此结束。感谢您的参与。您现在可以断开连接。