Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio - YouTube
发布时间 2022-03-02 06:16:04 来源
The Changing World Order The times ahead will be radically different from those that we've experienced in our lifetimes, though similar to many times before. How do I know that? Because they always have been.
变化中的世界秩序
未来的时代将与我们一生中经历过的时代截然不同，尽管与许多以前的时代相似。我如何知道这一点？因为历史上一直都是如此。
解读：这段文字表达了一个观点，即未来的世界秩序将会发生重大变化，这在我们一生中所经历过的时代中是独一无二的，但也与以往的许多时代相似。作者认为未来的世界秩序的变化乃是一种大势所趋，并用历史事实来支持这一观点。
For my roughly 50 years of global macroeconomic investing, I've learned the hard way that the most important events that surprised me did so because they never happened in my lifetime. These painful surprises led me to study the last 500 years of history for similar situations, where I saw that they had indeed happened many times before, with the ups and the downs of the Dutch, British, and US empires. And every time they did, it was a sign of the Changing World Order.
在我大约50年的全球宏观经济投资经验中，我痛苦地发现，最令我惊讶的重要事件之所以会让我惊讶，是因为它们在我一生中从未发生过。这些痛苦的意外让我开始研究过去500年的历史，以寻找类似的情况，我发现这种情况在荷兰、英国和美国帝国的兴衰中确实发生过许多次。每一次发生这种情况，都标志着世界秩序的变化。
This study taught me valuable lessons that I'm going to pass along to you here in a distilled form. You can find the comprehensive version in my book, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order.
这项研究教给了我宝贵的经验，我将在此以简明的方式向您传达。您可以在我的书《处理不断变化的世界秩序的原则》中找到更详尽的版本。
Let me begin with a story that brought me to this point about how I learned to anticipate the future by studying the past. In 1971, when I was a young clerk on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, the United States ran out of money and deflated on its debts.
让我先从一个故事开始，这个故事告诉我如何通过研究过去来预测未来。在1971年，当我还是纽约证券交易所的一名年轻职员时，美国债务严重累积，资金告罄，经济遭受了巨大的冲击。
That's right, the US ran out of money. How? Well, back then, gold was the money used in transactions between countries. Paper money, like the dollar, was like checks in a checkbook in that it had no value other than it could be exchanged for gold, which was the real money.
没错，美国用完了钱。怎么回事呢？那时候，黄金是国家间交易所使用的货币。纸币，比如美元，就像支票簿上的支票一样，除了可以兑换成真正的货币——黄金，它自身并没有任何价值。
At the time, the United States was spending a lot more money than it was earning by writing a lot more of these paper money checks than it had gold in the bank to exchange for them. As people turned these checks into the bank for gold money, the amount of gold in the US started to dwindle. It soon became obvious that the US couldn't keep its promises for all the existing paper money so people holding dollars rushed to exchange them before the gold ran out.
当时，美国花费的钱比他们赚的钱要多得多，通过写更多这样的纸币支票，而没有足够的黄金存款来兑换。当人们将这些支票兑换成金钱存入银行时，美国的黄金储备开始减少。很快就显而易见，美国无法兑现所有现有纸币的承诺，因此持有美元的人们纷纷赶在黄金耗尽之前去兑换。
Recognizing that the US was going to run out of real money, on Sunday evening August 15th, President Nixon went on television to tell the world that the US was breaking its promise to let people exchange their dollars for gold. Of course, he didn't say it that way. He said it more diplomatically without making it clear that the United States was defaulting the strength of a nation's currency is based on the strength of that nation's economy.
承认美国即将耗尽真金白银之际，尼克松总统于1971年8月15日星期日晚上在电视上向全世界宣布，美国正在违背允许人们用美元兑换黄金的承诺。当然，他没有直截了当地这样说。他更圆滑地表达了这一点，没有明确表示美国正在违约。一个国家货币的强势是基于该国经济的实力。
And the American economy is by far the strongest in the world. Accordingly, I have directed the Secretary of the Treasury to take the action necessary to defend the dollar against the speculators. I have directed Secretary Connolly to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar, into gold, or other reserve assets, except in amounts and conditions determined to be in the interest of monetary stability and in the best interest of the United States.
美国经济是全球最强大的。因此，我已指示财政部长采取必要措施保护美元免受投机者的攻击。我已指示康诺利国务卿临时暂停美元兑换黄金或其他储备资产，除非数量和条件被确定为符合货币稳定和美国最佳利益。
I watched in awe, realizing that money as we understood it was ending. What a crisis. I expected the stock market to plunge the next day so I got on the exchange floor early to prepare when the opening bell rang. Pandemonium broke out, but not the kind I expected. The market was up, way up, and went on to rise nearly 25%.
我惊叹地观看着，意识到我们所理解的金钱即将结束。这是多么严重的危机啊。我预料到第二天股市会暴跌，所以一早就去交易所准备好了，等开市铃声响起。混乱爆发了，但不是我预料的那种。股市上涨了，上涨得非常厉害，最终涨幅接近25%。
That surprised me, because I never experienced a currency devaluation before. When I dug into history, I discovered that the exact same thing happened in 1933 and had the exact same effect. Then, paper dollars were also linked to gold, which the U.S. was running out of because it was spending more paper money checks than it had gold to exchange for them.
这让我感到很惊讶，因为我从未经历过货币贬值。当我深入研究历史时，我发现1933年发生了完全相同的事情，而且效果也一模一样。当时，纸币同样与黄金挂钩，而美国的黄金储备因为发行超过其能够兑换的纸币支票而不足。
And President Roosevelt announced on the radio that he would break the country's promise to exchange dollars for gold. It was then that I issued the proclamation, providing for the National Bank holiday. And this was the first step in the government's reconstruction of our financial and economic fabric. The second step last Thursday was the legislation promptly and picriotically passed by the Congress, confirming my proclamation and broadening my powers so that it became possible in view of the requirement of time to extend the holiday and lift the ban of that holiday gradually in the days to come. This law also gave authority to develop a process to repeat.
罗斯福总统在广播中宣布，他将取消国家以黄金兑换美元的承诺。就在那时，我发布了一项宣言，为全国银行假日提供了法律依据。这是政府重建我们金融和经济结构的第一步。上周四，第二步是国会迅速且爱国地通过了立法，确认了我的宣言并扩大了我的权力，以便根据时间的要求，逐渐延长假期并逐步解禁。该法还授权制定重复执行该过程的程序。
In both cases, breaking the link to gold allowed the U.S. to continue spending more than it earned simply by printing more paper dollars. Since there was an increase in the number of dollars without an increase in the country's wealth, the value of each dollar fell.
在这两种情况下，与黄金的联系断裂使得美国能够通过印刷更多纸币继续支出超过收入。由于美元数量增加但国家财富没有增加，每一美元的价值下降了。
As these new dollars entered the market, without a corresponding increase in productivity, they went to buy lots of stocks, gold and commodities, and hence caused their prices to rise. As I studied more history, I saw that the exact same thing happened many, many times before.
随着这些新的美元进入市场，在生产力没有相应增加的情况下，它们被用来购买大量的股票、黄金和大宗商品，从而导致它们的价格上涨。随着我对历史的研究越来越多，我发现这种情况在以前发生了很多很多次。
I saw that since the beginning of time, when governments spent much more than they took in in taxes and conditions got bad, they ran out of money and they needed more. So they printed more, a lot more, which made its value full and made the prices of most everything, including stocks, gold and commodities rise. That's when I first learned the principle that, when central banks print a lot of money to relieve a crisis, buy stocks, gold and commodities, because their value will rise and the value of paper money will fall, this printing of money is also what happened.
我注意到，自古以来，当政府支出远远超过税收收入，情况变得很糟糕时，他们就会用尽资金，需要更多的钱。所以他们印制了更多的钱，非常多，这导致货币价值贬值，包括股票、黄金和大宗商品价格上涨。那时候，我第一次学到了这样一个原则：当中央银行印制大量货币来缓解危机时，要购买股票、黄金和大宗商品，因为它们的价值会上升，纸币的价值会下降。这也是发生在印制货币的情况。
It happened in 2008 to relieve the mortgage-driven debt crisis, and in 2020 to relieve the pandemic-driven economic crisis, and it almost certainly will happen in the future. So I suggest that you keep this principle in mind. These experiences gave me another principle which is, to understand what is coming at you, you need to understand what happened before you. The principle led me to study how the roaring 20s bubble turned into the 1930s depression, which gave me the lessons that allowed me to anticipate and profit from, the 2007 bubble, turning into the 2008 bust. All these experiences led me to develop an almost instinctual urge to look to the past for similar situations to learn how to handle the future well.
它发生在2008年，以缓解由抵押贷款驱动的债务危机，又在2020年以缓解由疫情驱动的经济危机，而且几乎可以肯定的是，它将来还会发生。所以我建议你牢记这个原则。这些经历给了我另一个原则，就是要了解即将到来的事情，你需要了解之前发生的事情。这个原则促使我研究了繁荣的20年代泡沫如何演变成了1930年代的大萧条，给了我预测并从2007年的泡沫中获利，并最终导致2008年的经济崩溃的经验。所有这些经历让我养成了一种几乎本能的研究过去类似情况以学习如何应对未来的欲望。
Changing orders. Over the last few years, three big things that hadn't happened in my lifetime prompted me to do this study. First, countries didn't have enough money to pay their debts, even after lowering interest rates to zero, so their central banks began printing lots of money to do so. Second, big internal conflicts emerged due to growing gaps in wealth and values. This showed up in political populism and polarization between the left who want to redistribute wealth and the right who want to defend those holding the wealth. And third, increasing external conflict between a rising great power and the leading great power, as is now happening with China and the United States.
转变的指令。在过去几年中，发生了我一生中从未发生过的三件大事，促使我进行这项研究。首先，许多国家没有足够的钱来偿还债务，即使将利率降至零，因此他们的中央银行开始大量印刷货币来偿还债务。其次，由于财富和价值观差距的扩大，出现了大规模的国内冲突。这在政治民粹主义和左翼要重新分配财富、右翼要保护财富拥有者之间的两极分化中表现出来。第三，正在崛起的大国和领先大国之间的外部冲突日益增加，正如目前中国和美国之间发生的情况。
So I looked back. I saw that all these had happened together before, many times, and nearly always led to changing domestic and world orders. The last time this sequence happened was from 1930 to 1945. What exactly is an order, you might ask? It's a governing system for people dealing with each other. There are internal orders for governing within countries typically laid out in constitutions. And there is a world order for governing between countries typically laid out in treaties. International orders change at different times than world orders, the weather within or between countries. These orders typically change after wars. Civil wars within countries. International wars between countries. They happen when revolutionary new forces defeat weak old orders.
所以我回头看了一眼。我发现所有这些事情之前都发生过很多次，几乎总是导致国内和世界秩序的改变。上一次这种序列发生是从1930年到1945年。也许你会问，究竟什么是秩序？它是人们处理彼此关系的一种治理体系。国家内部有用于管理的秩序，通常在宪法中明确规定。而国家之间有用于管理的世界秩序，通常在条约中明确规定。国际秩序的改变与世界秩序不同，就像国家内部或国家之间的气候一样。这些秩序通常在战争之后改变。在国内发生内战时，或者国际间爆发战争时。当革命的新力量击败薄弱的旧秩序时，这些变革就会发生。
For example, the U.S. internal order was laid out in the Constitution in 1789 after the American Revolution, and it is still operating today even after the American Civil War. Russia got rid of its old order and established a new one with the Russian Revolution in 1917, which ended in 1991 with a relatively bloodless revolution. China began its current internal order in 1949 when the Chinese Communist Party won the Civil War. You get the idea.
例如，美国的内部秩序在1789年美国独立战争后通过宪法得到规定，并且即使经历了美国内战后，至今仍然有效。俄罗斯在1917年进行了俄国革命，废除了旧体制并建立了新秩序，这一革命以相对无血腥的方式于1991年结束。中国始于1949年，当时中国共产党赢得了内战，建立了当前的内部秩序。你有了大概的理解。
The current world order, commonly called the American World Order, formed after the Allied victory in World War II when the U.S. emerged as the dominant world power. It was set out in agreements and treaties for how global governance and monetary systems work. In 1944, the new world monetary system was laid out in the Bretton Woods agreement and established the dollar as the world's leading reserve currency. A reserve currency is a currency that is commonly accepted around the world, and having one is a key factor in a country becoming the richest and most powerful empire. With a new dominant power and monetary system established, a new world order begins.
当前的世界秩序，通常称为美国世界秩序，形成于第二次世界大战后，当时美国崛起成为主导世界的大国。世界秩序通过协议和条约规定了全球治理和货币体系的运作方式。1944年，布雷顿森林协议制定了新的世界货币体系，并将美元确立为世界主要储备货币。储备货币是一种在世界范围内普遍接受的货币，拥有储备货币是一个国家成为最富有且最强大的帝国的关键因素。随着一个新的主导大国和货币体系的确立，一个新的世界秩序开始形成。
These changes take place in a timeless and universal cycle that I call the big cycle. I'll start with a quick overview, then give you a more complete version, and then direct you to my book if you want more. As I studied the 10 most powerful empires over the last 500 years and the last three reserve currencies, it took me through the rise and decline of the Dutch Empire and the Gilder, the British Empire and the Pound, the rise and early decline in the United States Empire and the dollar, and the decline and rise of the Chinese Empire and its currencies, as well as the rise and decline of the Spanish, German, French, Indian, Japanese, Russian, and Ottoman empires, along with their significant conflicts, as measured in this chart.
这些变化发生在一个永恒而普遍的循环中，我称之为大周期。我将从一个简要概述开始，然后给你一个更完整的版本，如果你想要更多信息，我会指引你阅读我的书。在研究了过去500年来最强大的10个帝国和最近三个储备货币之后，我经历了荷兰帝国和盾、英国帝国和英镑、美国帝国和美元的崛起和衰落，以及中国帝国及其货币的衰落和崛起，还有西班牙、德国、法国、印度、日本、俄罗斯和奥斯曼帝国的兴衰，以及它们之间的重大冲突，如图表所示。
To understand China's patterns better, I also studied the rise and fall of Chinese dynasties and their monies back to the year 600.
为了更好地了解中国的制度，我还研究了自公元600年起中国朝代的兴衰和货币情况。
Because looking at all these measures at once can be confusing, I'll focus on the four most important ones, the Dutch, British, US, and Chinese. You'll quickly notice the pattern.
因为一下子看到这么多措施可能会让人感到困惑，所以我将重点关注四个最重要的国家：荷兰、英国、美国和中国的措施。你很快就会注意到它们之间的模式。
Now let's simplify the form a bit.
现在让我们将表格简化一些。
As you can see, they transpired in overlapping cycles that lasted about 250 years, with 10 to 20 year transition periods between them. Typically these transitions have been periods of great conflict because leading powers don't decline without a fight.
正如你所看到的，它们发生在持续约250年的相互重叠的周期中，其中它们之间有10到20年的过渡期。通常情况下，这些过渡时期都会伴随着巨大的冲突，因为主导大国不会无声无息地衰落下去，他们会进行抵抗。
So how am I measuring an empire's power? In this study, I used eight metrics. Each country's measure of total power is derived by averaging them together. They are education, inventiveness and technology development, competitiveness in global markets, economic output, share of world trade, military strength, the power of their financial center for capital markets, and the strength of their currency as a reserve currency.
那么我如何衡量一个帝国的实力？在这项研究中，我使用了八个指标。每个国家的总实力指标是通过将它们平均起来计算得出的。这些指标包括教育水平、创新和技术发展、在全球市场中的竞争力、经济产出、全球贸易份额、军事实力、金融中心对资本市场的影响力以及其货币作为储备货币的实力。
Because these powers are measurable, we can see how strong each country is now, was in the past, and whether they're rising or declining.
因为这些力量是可衡量的，我们可以看到每个国家现在的实力、过去的实力以及它们是在崛起还是衰退。
By examining the sequences from many countries, we can see how a typical cycle transpires. Because the wiggles can be confusing, we can simplify it a bit to focus on the pattern of cause-effect relationships that drive the rise and decline of a typical empire.
通过研究许多国家的历史，我们可以看到一个典型循环是如何发生的。由于这些波动可能令人困惑，我们可以简化一些，着重关注推动典型帝国兴盛和衰败的因果关系模式。
As you can see, better education typically leads to increased innovation and technology development and with a lag the establishment of the currency as a reserve currency. You can also see that these forces then declined in a similar order, reinforcing each other's decline.
正如你所看到的，良好的教育通常导致创新和技术发展的增加，随后延迟建立储备货币的形成。你也可以看到，这些力量随后以类似的顺序下降，加强了彼此的衰退。
Let's now look at the typical sequence of events going on inside a country that produces these rises and declines.
让我们现在来看看一个生产这些增长和下降的国家内部典型的事件顺序。
In a nutshell, the big cycle typically begins after a major conflict, often a war, establishes the new leading power and the new world order.
简而言之，大循环通常在一场重大冲突，尤其是战争之后开始，确立了新的主导力量和新的世界秩序。
There's no one wants to challenge this power, a period of peace and prosperity typically follows. As people get used to this peace and prosperity, they increasingly bet on it continuing. They borrow money to do that, which eventually leads to a financial bubble.
当没有人愿意挑战这份权力时，通常会随之而来一段和平繁荣的时期。随着人们逐渐习惯于这种和平和繁荣，他们越来越相信这个局面将会延续下去。为了押注于此，他们开始借钱，最终导致了金融泡沫的出现。
The empire's share of trade grows, and when most transactions are conducted in its currency, it becomes a reserve currency, which leads to even more more.
帝国在贸易中的份额不断增长，当大部分交易以其货币进行时，它成为储备货币，进而带来更多更多的好处。
At the same time, this increased prosperity distributes wealth unevenly, so the wealth gap typically grows between the rich haves and the poor have nots.
同时，这种增加的繁荣使财富分配不均，因此富人与穷人之间的财富差距通常会扩大。
Eventually, the financial bubble bursts, which leads to the printing of money, an increased internal conflict between the rich and the poor, which leads to some form of revolution to redistribute wealth. This can happen peacefully or as a civil war.
最终，金融泡沫爆破，导致货币贬值，并加剧富与穷之间的内部冲突，从而引发某种形式的革命来重新分配财富。这种革命可以和平地进行，也可以演变为内战。
While the empire struggles with this internal conflict, its power diminishes relative to external rival powers on the rise.
当帝国与内部冲突作斗争时，相对于崛起的外部敌对力量，它的实力逐渐削弱。
When a new rising power gets strong enough to compete with the dominant power that is having domestic breakdowns, external conflicts, most typically wars take place. So these internal and external wars come new winners and losers.
当一个新兴的势力变得足够强大，能够与正在经历国内崩溃和外部冲突的主导势力竞争时，通常会发生战争。因此，这些内部和外部的战争会产生新的赢家和输家。
Then, the winners get together to create the new world order. And the cycle begins again.
然后，获胜者们聚在一起共同创造新的世界秩序。然后循环再次开始。
As I looked back, I saw that these cause-and-effect relationships drove the cycles of rises and declines all the way back to the Roman Empire. I saw how the stories of each one of these cycles blended together with others before, during and after, in the same way as each individual story blends with others to make the epic 500-year story that is our collective history.
回顾过去的时候，我发现这些因果关系一直影响着兴衰循环，直至罗马帝国时代。我看到每个循环的故事在之前、之中和之后与其他故事交织在一起，就像每个个体的故事与其他故事融合在一起，形成了我们共同历史的史诗般的500年故事。
And like human life cycles, no two are exactly the same, but most are similar. They're driven by logical cause-and-effect relationships that progress through stages from birth to strength and maturity to weakness and inevitably decline.
就像人的生命周期一样，没有两个完全相同的，但大多数都是相似的。它们受到逻辑因果关系的驱使，通过从出生到力量和成熟，再到衰弱和必然衰退的阶段逐渐发展。
However, that's like saying a person's life cycle takes 80 years on average without recognizing that many are much shorter and many are longer. While age can be a good indicator of future longevity, a better way is to look at health indicators. One can do that with empires and their vital signs too.
然而，这就好像说一个人的生命周期平均需要80年，而不承认许多人生命较短，也有许多人生命较长。虽然年龄可以成为预测长寿的一个良好指标，但更好的方法是观察健康指标。我们也可以用帝国和它们的生命指标来做同样的事情。
I found that by watching the indicators of power change, I was able to see what stage a country was in, which helped me to anticipate what was likely to come next.
我发现通过观察权力变动的指标，我能够了解一个国家处于哪个阶段，从而帮助我预测接下来可能发生的事情。
Now, I'll take you through the big cycle in more detail. Give me 20 minutes and I'll give you the last 500 years of history and show you the similar patterns across the Dutch, British, US, and Chinese empires.
现在，我会更详细地向你解释这个大周期。给我20分钟，我会为你讲述过去500年的历史，并展示荷兰、英国、美国和中国帝国之间相似的模式。
500 years of big cycles. I'm going to describe the typical cycle by dividing it into three phases. The rise, the top, and the decline.
500年的大周期。我将把典型周期分为三个阶段来描述，即上升阶段、巅峰阶段和衰退阶段。
The rise. Successful new waters that rise,
both internal and external, are typically started by powerful revolutionary leaders doing four things.
First, they win power by gaining more support than the opposition.
Second, they consolidate power by converting, weakening, or eliminating the opposition so they don't stand in their way.
Third, they establish systems and institutions that make the country work well.
And fourth, they pick their successors well or create systems that do that because a great empire requires many great leaders over several generations.
崛起。成功的新浪潮，无论是内部的还是外部的，通常都是由强大的革命领导者通过四个步骤来开始的。首先，他们通过争取更多的支持者而取得权力。其次，他们通过转变、削弱或消除对手来巩固自己的权力，以便他们的路畅通无阻。第三，他们建立能使国家良好运行的体系和机构。第四，他们善于挑选继任者，或者建立能够自动生成继任者的体系，因为一个伟大的帝国需要数代杰出的领导者。
At this stage, soon after winning the fight, there is typically a period of peace and growing prosperity because the leadership is clearly dominant and has broad support so no one wants to fight it.
During this phase, leaders within the country have to design an excellent system to raise the country's wealth and power.
First and foremost, to be great, they must have strong education, which is not just teaching knowledge and skills, but also strong character, civility, and work ethic. These are typically taught in the family, schools, and religious institutions.
It provides a healthy respect for rules and laws, water within society, low corruption, and enables them to unite behind a common purpose and work well together.
As they do this, they increasingly shift from producing basic products to innovating and inventing new technologies.
For example, the Dutch rose to defeat the Habsburg Empire and become superbly educated.
They became so inventive that they came up with a quarter of all major inventions in the world.
The most important of which was the invention of ships that could travel around the world to collect great riches and the invention of capitalism as we know it today to finance those voyages. They, like all leading empires, enhance their thinking by being open to the best thinking in the world.
As a result, the people in the country become more productive and more competitive in world markets, which shows up in their growing economic output and rising share of world trade.
You can see this happening now as the US and China are roughly comparable in both their economic outputs and their shares of world trade.
在这个阶段，通常是在战斗胜利后不久，会有一个和平与繁荣增长的时期，因为领导地位明确，得到广泛支持，所以没有人想与其对抗。
在这个阶段，国内的领导者必须设计一个优秀的体制来提高国家的财富和实力。
首先，要成为伟大的国家，他们必须有良好的教育，这不仅是教授知识和技能，还包括强大的品质、文明礼仪和职业道德。这些通常是在家庭、学校和宗教机构中教授的。
这提供了对规章制度和法律的尊重，社会中的水平、低腐败，使他们能够团结在一个共同目标背后，共同努力。
随着这样做，他们越来越多地从生产基本产品转向创新和发明新技术。
例如，荷兰人战胜哈布斯堡帝国并变得受教育程度极高。
他们变得如此有创造力，以至于他们发明了全球四分之一的重大发明。
其中最重要的是发明了能够环游世界以收集巨大财富的船只以及我们今天所知的资本主义的发明来为这些航行提供资金。像所有领先的帝国一样，他们通过对世界上最好的思想持开放态度来提升他们的思维能力。
结果，该国人民的生产力和在世界市场上的竞争力都会提高，表现为他们不断增长的经济产出和日益增加的世界贸易份额。
正如我们现在所看到的，美国和中国在经济产出和全球贸易份额上大致相当。
As countries trade more globally, they must protect their trade rates and their foreign interests from attack, so they develop great military strength.
If done well, this virtuous cycle leads to strong income growth, which can be used to finance investments in education, infrastructure, and research and development.
They must also develop systems to incentivize and empower those that have the ability to make or take wealth.
In all of these cases, the most successful empires used a capitalist approach to develop productive entrepreneurs.
Even China, which is run by the Chinese Communist Party, used the form of this capitalist approach.
Deng Xiaoping, when asked about this, said, it doesn't matter if it's a white cat or a black cat as long as it catches mice.
And it's glorious to be rich.
随着国家间全球贸易的增加，它们必须保护其贸易利率和对外利益，因此发展强大的军事实力。
如果做得好，这种良性循环将导致强劲的收入增长，可用于投资于教育、基础设施和研发。
它们还必须开发制度来激励和赋予那些有能力创造或获取财富的人。
在所有这些案例中，最成功的帝国都采用了资本主义的方法来培养富有生产力的企业家。
甚至中国，由中国共产党领导，也采用了这种资本主义方法的形式。
邓小平在被问及此事时说，只要能抓住老鼠，白猫黑猫无所谓。
而且，致富是光荣的。
To do this well, they must develop their capital markets, most importantly, their lending, bond, and stock markets.
That allows people to convert their savings into investments to fund invention and development and share in the successes of those who make great things happen.
The Dutch created the first publicly listed company, the Dutch East India Company, and the first stock market to fund it, which were integral parts of the system that produced massive wealth and power.
As a natural consequence, the greatest empires developed the world's leading financial centers for attracting and distributing the world's capital.
Amsterdam was the world's financial center when the Dutch were preeminent.
London, when the British were on top, New York is now, and China is quickly developing its financial centers.
要做到这一点，他们必须发展他们的资本市场，尤其是贷款、债券和股票市场。这样一来，人们可以将他们的储蓄转化为投资，用于创新和发展，并分享那些取得巨大成就的人的成功。荷兰人创办了第一家公开上市公司 - 荷兰东印度公司，并为其筹集资金设立了第一家股票交易市场，这些都是产生巨大财富和权力的系统的核心部分。作为一个自然结果，最伟大的帝国发展起了世界领先的金融中心，用于吸引和分配全球资本。当荷兰人占据主导地位时，阿姆斯特丹是世界金融中心。当英国人占据主导地位时是伦敦，现在是纽约，而中国正在迅速发展自己的金融中心。
Most importantly, the capitalists, the governments, and the military must work together.
Not only did the Dutch work well together, they were one and the same.
The Dutch East India Company was granted a trade monopoly from the government and had its own officially sanctioned military to go out into the global markets to make and take wealth.
The British followed with the British East India Company and had a similar coordination of their government, business, and military operations.
The US military industrial complex followed suit, as does the Chinese system today.
最重要的是，资本家、政府和军方必须合作。不仅荷兰人合作良好，而且他们是同一体。荷兰东印度公司被政府授予贸易垄断权，并拥有自己的官方认可的军队，去进入全球市场创造和获取财富。英国人在英国东印度公司方面也采取了类似的政府、商业和军事行动协调。美国的军工复合体也效仿这种做法，中国今天也是如此。
As the country becomes the largest international trading empire, its transactions can be paid with its currency, making it the preferred global medium of exchange. And, because their currency is so widely accepted and frequently used, people around the world want to save in it, making it the preferred storehold of wealth, and thus the world's leading reserve currency.
随着该国成为全球最大的国际贸易帝国，其交易可以用其货币进行支付，使其成为首选的全球交换媒介。而且，由于他们的货币广泛被接受和频繁使用，世界各地的人们都想要储蓄该货币，使其成为首选的财富存储方式，从而成为全球领先的储备货币。
The Gilder was the world's main reserve currency when the Dutch-led world trade, the pound was when the British led, and the dollar has been since the US led. Naturally, China's currency is increasingly being used as a reserve currency. Having a reserve currency enables the empire to borrow more than other countries. That advantage is huge.
当荷兰主导世界贸易时，吉尔德成为世界主要储备货币；当英国主导时，英镑成为主要储备货币；而美国主导后，美元成为主要储备货币。自然而然地，中国的货币正日益被用作储备货币。拥有储备货币使一个国家能够比其他国家更多地借款，这种优势非常巨大。
Think about it. People all over the world are eager to save and hence lend back their currency to the empire. Countries without a reserve currency don't have that. And when the empire runs out of its own money, remember the United States in 1971? They can always print more. The exorbitant privilege afforded by the empire's reserve currency leads borrowing to increase and the beginning of a financial bubble.
想一想吧。世界各地的人都急于储蓄，因此他们借贷自己的货币给帝国。没有储备货币的国家就没有这样的条件。而当帝国的资金耗尽时，还记得1971年的美国吗？他们总可以随时印刷更多货币。帝国所拥有的储备货币所带来的特权使得借贷增加，形成了金融泡沫的开端。
A series of cause-and-effect relationships leading to mutually supportive financial, political, and military powers, bolstered by the borrowing power of a reserve currency, have gone together since history began to be recorded. All the empires that became the most powerful in the world followed this path to the top. While in the top phase, most of these strains are sustained, embedded within the fruits of their success are the seeds of their decline.
自从历史开始记录以来，一系列因果关系相互作用形成了相互支持的金融、政治和军事力量，这些力量得到了储备货币的借贷能力的支持。世界上最强大的帝国都沿着这条道路走向巅峰。在巅峰阶段，大多数这些压力得到了维持，然而他们成功的果实中潜藏着衰落的种子。
As a rule, as people in these rich and powerful countries earn more, that makes them more expensive and less competitive relative to people in other countries who are willing to work for less. At the same time, people in other countries naturally copy the methods and technologies of the leading power which further reduces the leading power's competitiveness. For example, British shipbuilders had less expensive workers than Dutch shipbuilders. So they hired Dutch designers to design better ships that were built by less expensive British workers, making them more competitive, which led the British to rise and the Dutch to decline.
通常情况下，随着富裕和强大国家的人民收入增加，他们相对于其他愿意接受较低工资的国家的人民来说会变得更加昂贵和不具备竞争力。与此同时，其他国家的人民也会自然而然地模仿领先强国的方法和技术，进一步降低领先强国的竞争力。例如，英国造船商拥有比荷兰造船商更便宜的劳工。因此，他们雇用荷兰设计师设计更好的船只，然后由成本更低的英国劳工建造，使得他们变得更有竞争力，促使英国崛起而荷兰衰落。
Also, as people become richer, they tend not to work as hard. They enjoy more leisure, pursue the finer and less productive things in life, and at the extreme become decadent. Values change from generation to generation during the rise to the top, from those who had to fight to achieve wealth and power to those who inherited it. They're less battle-hardened, steeped in luxuries and accustomed to the easy life which makes them more vulnerable to challenges. The golden era of the Dutch Empire and the Victorian era of the British Empire were such high prosperity periods like this.
随着人们变得更加富裕，他们倾向于不再努力工作。他们享受更多闲暇时间，追求生活中更精致但不那么生产力的事物，并且极端情况下会变得堕落。在通往巅峰时期的不同世代中，价值观会发生变化，从那些不得不奋斗才能取得财富和权力的人，转变为那些继承了财富的人。他们不再经历过搏斗上的磨练，沉溺于奢华，习惯了舒适的生活，这使得他们更容易受到挑战的困扰。荷兰帝国的黄金时代和英国帝国的维多利亚时代就是这样的高繁荣时期。
As people get used to doing well, they increasingly bet on the good times continuing and borrow money to do that, which grows into financial bubbles. Naturally, the financial gains come unevenly, so the wealth gap grows. Wealth gaps are self-reinforcing because rich people use their greater resources to reinforce their powers. For example, they give greater privileges to their children, like better education, and they influence the political system to their advantage. This causes the gaps in values, politics, and opportunities to grow between the rich halves and the poor have nots. Those who are less well-off feel the system is unfair, so resentments grow. But as long as the living standards of most people are still rising, these gaps and resentments don't boil over into conflict.
随着人们逐渐习惯于良好的经济状况，他们越来越倾向于相信好时光会持续下去，并通过借贷来实现这种信念，这进一步孕育了金融泡沫。由于财富的获得方式不均，财富差距也在扩大。财富差距是自我强化的，因为富人利用他们更多的资源加强自己的权力。例如，他们给予孩子更多的特权，如优质教育，并通过影响政治体系使自己受益。这导致了富人和穷人之间的价值观、政治和机会差距的增大。那些经济状况较差的人感觉到这个体系不公平，因此怨恨增加。但只要大多数人的生活水平仍在提高，这些差距和怨恨就不会引发冲突。
Having the world's reserve currency inevitably leads to borrowing excessively and contributes to the country building up large debts with foreign lenders. While this boosts spending power over short-term, it weakens the country's financial health and weakens the currency over the long-term. In other words, when borrowing and spending are strong, the empire appears very strong, but its finances are in fact being weakened.
拥有世界储备货币不可避免地导致过度借贷，并促使该国向外国债权人累积巨额债务。尽管这在短期内提升了支出能力，但却削弱了该国的财务健康并使货币在长期内贬值。换句话说，当借贷和消费强劲时，帝国看起来非常强大，但实际上其财务状况正受到削弱。
The borrowing sustains the country's power beyond its fundamentals by financing both domestic overconsumption and international military conflicts required to maintain the empire. Inevitably, the cost of maintaining and defending the empire becomes greater than the revenue it brings in, so having an empire becomes unprofitable.
借贷支持这个国家的权力超出了其基本面，既用于国内过度消费，又用于维护帝国所需的国际军事冲突。不可避免地，维护和保卫帝国所需的成本超过了其带来的收入，因此拥有帝国变得不盈利。
For example, the Dutch empire overextended around the world and fought war after increasingly the expensive war with the British and other European powers to protect its territory and trade routes. The British empire similarly became massive, bureaucratic, and lost its competitive advantages as rival powers, particularly Germany, soared, leading to an increasingly expensive arms race and world war.
例如，荷兰帝国在全球范围内扩张过度，并与英国和其他欧洲强国为保护其领土和贸易路线而进行了一场接着一场价格越来越高的战争。英国帝国同样变得庞大、官僚化，并失去了其竞争优势，而其竞争对手，特别是德国，崛起，导致了一场越来越昂贵的军备竞赛和世界大战。
The US has spent about $8 trillion on foreign wars and their consequences since September 2011, and trillions more for other military operations and for supporting military bases in 70 countries, and it still isn't spending enough to support its military competition with China in the area around China. In this cycle, the richer countries eventually get deeper into debt by borrowing from poor countries that save more. It's one of the early signs of a wealth of power shift.
自2011年9月以来，美国已在外国战争及其后果上花费约8万亿美元，并在其他军事行动和支持全球70个国家的军事基地上花费了数万亿美元，尽管如此，美国在应对中国在其周边地区的军事竞争方面仍然支出不够。在这个循环中，富裕国家最终通过向更加储蓄的贫穷国家借债来加深了债务。这是财富和权力转移的早期迹象之一。
This started in the United States in the 1980s when it had a per capita income 40 times that of China's and started borrowing from Chinese who wanted to save in dollars because the dollar was the world's reserve currency. Similarly, the British borrowed a lot of money from its much poorer colonies and the Dutch did the same at their top. If the empire begins to run out of new lenders, those holding their currency begin to look to sell and get out rather than to buy, save, lend and get in. And the strength of the empire begins to decline.
这一切始于上世纪80年代的美国，当时美国的人均收入是中国的40倍，他们开始向希望用美元储蓄的中国人借钱，因为美元是世界储备货币。同样地，英国从自己更贫穷的殖民地借了很多钱，而荷兰也在顶峰时期做了同样的事情。如果帝国开始缺乏新的借款人，那些持有其货币的人会开始寻求出售和退出，而不是购买、储蓄、借贷和加入。因此，帝国的实力开始下降。
The decline. The decline comes from internal economic weakness together with internal fighting or costly external fighting or both. Typically, the decline comes gradually and then very suddenly. When debts become very large and there is an economic downturn and the empire can no longer borrow the money necessary to repay its debts, the financial bubble bursts. This creates great domestic hardships and forces the country to choose between defaulting on its debts or printing a lot of new money. It always chooses to print a lot of new money. At first, gradually and eventually massively. That devalues the currency and raises inflation.
衰退。衰退来源于内部经济薄弱以及内部纷争或昂贵的外部战争，或者两者都有。通常情况下，衰退是逐渐发生然后突然爆发的。当债务变得非常庞大，经济下滑且帝国无法借到偿还债务所需的资金时，金融泡沫破灭。这会造成巨大的国内困境，迫使国家在偿债违约和大量印刷新钞之间做出选择。它总是选择大量印刷新钞。起初是逐渐地，最终变得大规模。这会贬值货币并引起通货膨胀。
For the Dutch, this was the financial crisis brought about by financial excesses and paying for the fourth angle of Dutch war. Similarly for the British, it was paying for its financial excesses and its debts from the two world wars. According to the US, it's been three cycles of debt finance, booms and busts since the 90s with the central bank stepping in each time with stronger measures.
对于荷兰人来说，这是由于财务过度和为荷兰战争的第四个角度买单而引发的金融危机。类似地，对于英国人来说，这是为其财务过度和两次世界大战的债务付账。根据美国的观点，自90年代以来，已经有三次债务融资、繁荣与经济崩溃的周期，每次中央银行都采取更强硬的措施介入其中。
When the government has problems funding itself, when there are bad economic conditions and living standards for most people are declining and there are large wealth, values and political gaps. There are many other political conflicts between the rich and the poor as well as different ethnic, religious and racial groups greatly increases. This leads to political extremism that shows up as populism of the left or the right.
当政府面临自身资金困难、经济状况恶化以及大多数人的生活水平下降，并存在巨大的财富、价值观和政治差距时，富人与穷人之间以及不同的种族、宗教和种族群体之间的政治冲突大大增加。这导致左翼或右翼的民粹主义表现为政治极端化。
Those of the left seek to redistribute the wealth while those of the right seek to maintain the wealth in the hands of the rich. Typically during such times, taxes on the rich rise and when the rich fear their wealth and well-being will be taken away, they move to places, assets and currencies they feel safer in. These outflows reduce the empire's tax revenue which leads to a classic, self-reinforcing, hollowing out process. When the flight of wealth gets bad enough, government's outlawed, those seeking to get out begin to panic.
左派寻求重新分配财富，而右派则寻求维持富人手中的财富。在这种情况下，富人的税负通常会上升，当富人担心他们的财富和福祉将被剥夺时，他们会转移到他们认为更安全的地方、资产和货币上。这些资金外流会减少国家的税收收入，导致经典的、自我强化的空心化过程。当财富外流越来越严重时，政府会立法禁止，那些试图逃避的人开始恐慌。
This turbulent conditions undermine productivity, which shrinks the economic pie and causes more conflict about how to divide the shrinking resources. Populous leaders emerge from both sides and pledge to take control and bring about order. That's when democracy is most challenged because it fails to control the anarchy and it is when the move to a strong populist leader who will bring order to the chaos is most likely.
这种动荡的情况削弱了生产力，导致经济蛋糕缩小，并引发更多关于如何分配日益减少的资源的冲突。人口众多的领导人从双方涌现出来，并承诺掌控局势、带来秩序。就在这时，民主制度面临最大的挑战，因为它无法控制无政府状态，而此时转向一个强有力的民粹主义领导人以对混乱带来秩序的可能性最大。
As conflict within the country escalates, it leads to some form of revolution or civil work to redistribute wealth and force the necessary big changes. This can be peaceful and maintain the existing order, but it's more often violent and changes the order. For example, the Roosevelt Revolution to redistribute wealth was relatively peaceful and maintained the existing internal order. While the French Revolution, the Russian Revolution, and the Chinese Revolution were much more violent and led to new internal orders.
随着国内冲突的升级，不可避免地会引发某种形式的革命或内部行动，以重新分配财富并迫使必要的大变革。这种变革可以是和平的，并保持现有秩序，但更常见的是暴力的，并导致秩序的改变。例如，罗斯福进行的重新分配财富的革命相对和平，并维持了现有的内部秩序。而法国革命、俄国革命和中国革命则更为暴力，导致了新的内部秩序的诞生。
This internal conflict makes the empire weak and vulnerable to rising external rivals who, seeing this domestic weakness, are more inclined to mount a challenge. This raises the risk of great international conflict, especially if the rival has built up a comparable military. Defending oneself in one's empire against rivals requires great military spending, which has to occur as domestic economic conditions are deteriorating and the empire can least afford it.
这种内部冲突使帝国变得脆弱，容易受到崛起的外部竞争对手的攻击。这些外部竞争对手看到了帝国内部的弱点，更倾向于发起挑战。这增加了发生重大国际冲突的风险，尤其是如果竞争对手已经建立了相当规模的军事力量。在与竞争对手内部帝国进行自卫时，需要进行大量的军事开支，而这往往发生在国内经济条件恶化，帝国最为承受不起的时候。
Since there is no viable system for peacefully adjudicating international disputes, these conflicts are typically resolved through tests of power. As bolder challenges are made, the leading empire is faced with the difficult choice of fighting or retreating. Fighting and losing is the worst outcome, but retreating is bad too, as it seeds progress to the rival and signals that the empire is weak to those countries that are considering which side to be on.
由于没有可行的制度来和平解决国际争端，这些冲突通常通过实力的竞争来解决。随着更大胆的挑战出现，领先的帝国面临着艰难的选择，是战斗还是撤退。战斗并失败是最糟糕的结果，但撤退也不好，因为这将为竞争对手带来进步，并向那些正在考虑站在哪一边的国家传递帝国的薄弱信号。
Poor economic conditions cause more fighting for wealth and power, which inevitably leads to some kind of war. Others are terribly costly. At the same time, they produce the tectonic shifts that realign the new waters to the new realities of wealth and power in the world. When those holding the reserve currency in debt of the declining empire lose faith and sell them, that marks the end of its big cycle.
经济困境导致更多为财富和权力而争斗，不可避免地导致某种形式的战争。另外，这些困境也会引发巨大的代价。与此同时，它们也会引发地壳变动，将世界上的财富和权力新的格局重新调整。当持有正在衰退的帝国债务的储备货币的人们失去信心并出售掉时，这标志着它的大周期的终结。
Of the roughly 750 currencies that existed since 1700, less than 20% now exist, and all of them have been devalued. For the Dutch, this happened after their defeat in the Fourth Anglo-Dutch War, when they weren't able to repay the massive debts they built up during it. This led to a run on the Bank of Amsterdam, and a desperate sell-off, forcing massive money printing, which devalued the currency and the empire into irrelevance.
自1700年以来大约有750种货币存在，但现在只剩不到20%的货币存在，而且所有这些货币都已经贬值。对于荷兰来说，这种情况发生在他们在第四次英荷战争中的失败之后，他们无法偿还在此期间积累起来的巨额债务。这导致了对阿姆斯特丹银行的抢购和绝望的抛售，迫使大量印刷货币，结果导致货币贬值并使帝国沦为无关紧要。
For the British, this happened after World War II, when despite their victory, they could not repay the massive debts they borrowed to fund their war effort. This led to a series of money printing, devaluations, and sell-offs in the British pound, as the US and the dollar emerged dominant, and created a new world order.
对于英国人来说，这在二战之后发生了，尽管他们取得了胜利，但他们无法偿还为战争努力而借贷的巨额债务。这导致了一系列的货币印制、贬值和英镑抛售，因为美国和美元日益崛起，创造了一个新的世界秩序。
At the time of this recording, the United States hasn't yet reached this point, while it has massive debt, spends more than it earns, and funds this deficit with more borrowing and printing huge amounts of new money. The big sell-off in dollars and dollar debt hasn't yet begun, and while there are great internal and external conflicts occurring for all the classic reasons, they've not yet crossed the line to become wars.
在此录制时，美国尚未达到这个阶段，尽管它有巨额债务，支出超过收入，并通过更多借款和大量印刷新钞来弥补这一赤字。美元及其债务的大规模抛售尚未开始，虽然因为所有经典原因发生了许多内部和外部冲突，但它们尚未越过成为战争的那条线。
Eventually out of these conflicts, whether they're violent or not, come new winners who get together and restructure the loser's debts and political systems, and establish the new world order, then the old cycle and empire ends, and the new one begins, and they do it all over again.
最终, 无论这些冲突是否暴力，都会产生新的赢家，他们会联合起来重新构建失败者的债务和政治体制，建立新的世界秩序，然后旧的循环和帝国终结，新的循环开始，他们会重复这一切。
That's a lot of detail I just threw at you to paint a picture of how the typical big cycle transpires. Of course, not all of them transpire in exactly this way, but most largely do, so much so that it seems like the stories of rises and declines stay essentially the same, and the only things that change are the clothes the characters wear and the technologies they use.
这是我向你展示的许多细节，旨在描绘出典型的大周期是如何发展的。当然，并不是所有大周期都完全以这种方式发展，但大多数情况下是如此，以至于崛起和衰落的故事看起来基本相同，唯一改变的只是角色所穿的衣服和使用的技术。
So where are we heading? The future. Most empires have their time in the sun and inevitably decline. Looking at the decline is difficult because that requires undoing a lot that's already been done, but it's possible. By looking at these indicators, it's pretty easy to see which stage of the big cycle an empire is in, how fit it is, and whether its condition is improving or worsening, which can help one estimate how many years it has left.
我们的目标是什么地方呢？未来。大多数帝国都会有其辉煌时期，然后不可避免地衰落。观察衰落是困难的，因为这需要撤销很多已经完成的事情，但它是可能的。通过观察这些指标，很容易看出一个帝国处于大周期的哪个阶段，它的状态如何，是否在改善或恶化，从而有助于估计它还剩下多少年。
Still, these estimates are imprecise, and the cycle can be extended if those in charge pay attention to their vital signs and improve them. For example, knowing that a person is 60 years old, how fit they are, whether they smoke or not, and a few other basic vital signs, one can estimate the person's longevity. One can do that with empires in their vital signs too. It won't be precise, but it will be broadly indicative and give clear direction on steps to take to increase longevity.
然而，这些估计并不准确，并且如果负责人关注其重要指标并改进它们，周期可以延长。例如，了解一个人的年龄、健康状况、是否吸烟等几个基本的重要指标，可以估计这个人的寿命。同样，我们也可以通过检查一个帝国的重要指标来进行估计。虽然不会非常准确，但可以提供广泛指示并明确措施以增加寿命。
It's most often the case that a nation's greatest war is with itself over whether or not it can make the hard decisions needed to sustain success. As for what we need to do, it comes down to just two things. One more than we spend and treat each other well. All other things I mentioned, strong education, inventiveness, being competitive, and all the rest, are just ways of getting at these two things. It's easy to measure if we're doing them.
往往情况是，一个国家最大的战争是与自身展开的，关乎是否能够作出维持成功所需的艰难决策。至于我们需要做什么，归根结底只有两件事情。首先是节约开支，其次是善待彼此。我提到的其他一切，如优质教育、创新能力、竞争力等等，只是实现这两件事情的手段。我们很容易衡量我们是否在做到这两点。
So like people who want to get fit, let's get on the program and improve our vitals. Let's do that individually and collectively.
就像要变得健康的人一样，让我们参与这个计划并改善我们的身体指标。让我们从个人和集体两个方面来做到这一点。
My goal for sharing this picture of how the world works and a few principles for dealing with it well is to help you recognize where we are and the challenges we face, and to make the wise decisions needed to navigate these times well.
我分享这张描述世界运作方式的图片以及几个应对之道的原则，目标是帮助你认识我们所处的位置和面临的挑战，并做出明智的决策，以应对当前的时代。
Since there is a lot more to discuss and we are out of time, you can learn more in my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, and I look forward to continuing this conversation at www.economicprincibles.org and on social media.
由于有很多内容需要讨论，而我们没有足够的时间，您可以在我的书《应对变化世界秩序的原则》中了解更多信息，同时我期待在www.economicprinciples.org和社交媒体上继续这个对话。
Thank you, and may the force of evolution be with you. .
谢谢你，愿进化的力量与你同在。