Share Increases, Stock Decreases, Production Rates, Cyber Updates, Lawsuits (04.03.23)

Hey everybody Robbauer here and today we're going to be talking a little bit more about Tesla's Q1 delivery and production report yesterday. We'll take a look at how other automakers are coming in, comparisons with BYD, etc. We also have news on Gigabrah Lynn, Gigatexis, a couple of things on Cybertruck and more.

大家好，这里是Robbauer。今天我们将更详细地谈谈特斯拉昨天的Q1交付和生产报告。我们将看一下其他汽车制造商的情况，与比亚迪的比较等等。此外，我们还有关于吉卡布拉林、吉加特克西斯，Cybertruck等方面的新闻。

So we've now got our answer on how Tesla's stock is going to react to the delivery report. Also down 6.1% today closing at $194.77 while the NASDAQ was down 3% of a day. The Dow up 1% and S&P up 4% of a% oftentimes reflects a more difficult market for growth type stocks and the NASDAQ was down more significantly earlier in the day so not an easy way to start the day for Tesla but nevertheless a negative reaction at least initially to the delivery and production report but kind of just pushing the stock back to where it was on Friday.

所以现在我们已经知道特斯拉的股票将如何对交货报告做出反应。今天下跌了6.1%，收于194.77美元，而纳斯达克当天下跌了3%。道琼斯指数上涨了1%，标普500指数上涨了4%，更常常反映出一些增长型股票的市场条件更为困难，纳斯达克当天早些时候下跌更为显著，所以对于特斯拉来说一天的开始不太容易，但至少起初对交货和生产报告的反应是负面的，但将股票推回到上周五的水平。

From what I've read so far, an honest reaction seemed to be relatively neutral, we're not going to go through all of those but pretty neutral which shouldn't be too surprising given the numbers coming in pretty close to you analyst expectations. If there is a little bit more of a negative reaction, ironically I think that's probably due to Tesla's production number and the degree of difference between the two.

从我到目前为止阅读的内容来看，一个诚实的反应似乎相对中立，我们不会对所有内容进行审查，但相当中立，这不应该太令人惊讶，因为这些数字与分析师的预期非常接近。如果有一点更负面的反应，具有讽刺意味的是，我认为这可能是由于特斯拉的生产数量和两者之间的差异程度。

We talked about inventory, it's increased from 13 days up to about 16 days now following Q1. But even with all of the headwinds that are a part of the first quarter I think it would've gone a long way to inspire confidence and continued demand growth. If inventory had declined this quarter following price cuts. Now we've got relatively short backlogs, we've got inventory growth which are not necessarily bad or unhealthy things and in fact could be a very healthy thing for the business in general we've talked about unwinding the wave but it does leave those demand questions lingering and I think that is the biggest question for Tesla right now in combination with Tesla's gross margin which of course we still have to wait a couple of weeks to learn more about.

我们谈论了库存，它从第一季度增加了13天，现在增加到了大约16天。尽管第一季度会面临许多不利因素，但我认为如果库存在价格下跌后在本季度下降，这将有助于激发信心和继续推动需求增长。现在我们有比较短的积压订单，库存增长并不一定是坏的或不健康的事情，实际上对于整个业务来说可能是非常健康的事情。我们谈论了解决这一问题，但这确实会留下需求问题悬而未决，我认为这是特斯拉目前最大的问题，同时还有特斯拉的毛利率，当然我们还需要等待几周才能了解更多。

So those are just my thoughts on how the report is being perceived right now with a day to think about it, the reality and the importance or unimportance of certain factors that's going to be different from perception but the latter is always going to be what's driving the stock over short periods of time. To better understand the reality we'll look forward to that information again from the earnings report.

那只是我对于这份报告目前的观感所思考的想法。考虑了一天后，我们会了解某些因素的现实和重要性或无关紧要性会与我们的观感有所不同，但后者总会在短期内推动股票的涨跌。为了更好地了解现实情况，我们将期待通过收益报告再次获取相关信息。

By the way I did update my Tesla financial model with the information that we got yesterday that is up on shareloft. Alright let's take a quick look at the week ahead before we get into the news. It should be a relatively quieter week this week for macro economic reports but remember on Friday the NASDAQ is closed.

顺便说一下，我已经用我们昨天得到的信息更新了我的特斯拉财务模型，它现在已经放在了Shareloft上面。好了，在我们进入新闻之前，让我们快速看一下这个星期的情况吧。这个星期宏观经济报告应该相对较少，但请记住周五纳斯达克是关闭的。

For Tesla specifically overnight tonight we should get the final week of insured vehicle numbers for Tesla in China. Obviously we have the global numbers already but that'll give us some insight on how the quarter came in obviously in China specifically and how big of a record it will end up being for Tesla this quarter because this is the last week of the quarter I would expect this to decline significantly week over week and we'll talk more about that tomorrow.

今晚特斯拉的最新一周在中国的保险车辆数字应该会公布。虽然我们已经有了全球数字，但这将为我们提供一些关于本季度在中国特别是本季度对特斯拉最终成绩将产生多大影响的见解，因为这是本季度的最后一周，我预计这一数字将逐周显著下降，我们将在明天进一步讨论。

Alright getting into the news we'll talk a little bit more about Q1 industry performance later on but I want to start off with an update on Gigatex's Tesla on Twitter sharing that Gigatex has now achieved a 4000 vehicle production week. Obviously last week we heard for the first time Gigabullin had achieved a 5000 vehicle week they hit 4000 back on February 26th so Gigatex is 35 days or 5 weeks behind that pace for Berlin.

好的，让我们开始听新闻。稍后我们会谈一些有关第一季度行业表现的更多内容，但我想先更新一下Gigatex公司的特斯拉信息。Gigatex在Twitter上分享，他们现在已经实现了每周生产4000辆汽车。显然，上周我们第一次听说Gigabullin已经实现了每周生产5000辆汽车，而Gigatex在2月26日已经生产了4000辆汽车，因此Gigatex比柏林的生产速度慢了35天或5周。

Hopefully that means that later this month or early in May we see Tesla hitting that 5000 vehicle week milestone for Gigatex's as well. As we know though the ramps can be a little bit bumpy remember from December we heard from Tesla that Gigatex has hit 3000 per week 3 days before Gigabullin had then a really great ramp for Berlin throughout the quarter and a little bit slower progress for Texas but hopefully they've gotten through some of those things that were impeding that ramp and hopefully this means good progress on drivetter electrodes on 4680s but of course Tesla could just be increasing 2170 vehicle production at Gigatex as well.

希望这意味着在这个月晚些时候或五月初，特斯拉将在吉格特斯(Gigatex)达到5000辆汽车的生产里程碑。我们知道，随着生产线的加速，会出现一些波动，就像去年12月特斯拉曾宣布吉格特斯每周已达到3000辆，而吉加布林(Gigabullin)则在整个季度的生产线上取得了很大的进展，而德州则进展稍微慢一些，但是希望他们已经解决了一些妨碍生产的问题，这意味着对于4680车辆电池的驱动电极取得了进展，但当然特斯拉也可能只是增加了吉格特斯的2170车辆生产量。

If Tesla can even maintain a 4000 vehicle weekly production rate at Gigatex's throughout Q2 that would be ahead of my current production expectations and as you may have seen on Twitter the numbers that we got yesterday implied that Tesla produced about 170,000 vehicles in March that annualizes already to 2 million vehicles per year. That's before this type of a run rate at Gigatex's so if this happens if Shanghai continues which is really the big question mark but if that can continue to hit the peak monthly production rates that we know it can hit then that would pace Tesla pretty easily for their first half a million vehicle production quarter in the second quarter.

如果特斯拉能够在第二季度在吉卡特克斯的工厂保持每周4000辆的生产速度，那将超出我的目前的生产预期。正如你们在推特上可能看到的，我们昨天得到的数字表明特斯拉在3月生产了大约17万辆汽车，这已经相当于每年生产200万辆汽车。而这还不包括吉卡特克斯的这种运营率，如果真的发生了，如果上海继续保持这样的高生产速度，那么特斯拉很容易就能在第二季度达到50万辆汽车的生产目标。这是一个很大的问号，但如果上海工厂继续保持这样的高速生产，那么特斯拉的达标应该是没问题的。

Now it's a long quarter, a lot can happen there could be downtime, there could be updates with hardware 4, project highland we don't know but those are the sort of rates Tesla is achieving.

现在是漫长的季度，很多事情都可能发生，可能会有停机时间，可能会有硬件4的更新，还有项目高原，我们不知道，但这些都是特斯拉所能实现的那种速度。

On a similar note we've got an update on Gigabullin this is from RBB24, first they've confirmed with a managing director for an employment agency that Tesla does indeed have its third shift in place at Gigabullin no surprise on that given the production rate progress that we have seen but interestingly they also report that quote however it is assumed that there will soon be a fourth shift for which workers are being sought again.

在类似的话题上，我们获得了有关吉格博林的最新消息，来自RBB24，首先他们与一位雇用代理公司的总经理确认，特斯拉确实已经在吉格博林启用了第三个班次，鉴于我们所见到的生产率增长，这并不意外，但有趣的是，他们还报导说：虽然人们认为不久将来会出现第四班次，正在寻找工人。

With translation I'm not really sure if that means that workers are already being sought or they would anticipate to be sought again soon. I think it's more of the latter sought again soon and it's not exactly clear to me who this is being assumed by I don't know if that's coming from the employment agency but if this does happen relatively soon I think that would give us continued confidence in how Gigabullin ramps up throughout the rest of the year.

我不太确定这是否意味着雇主已经在寻找工人，或者他们预计不久将再次寻找。我认为更可能是后者，即不久将会再次寻找，但我不太清楚这是谁假设的。我不知道是不是来自就业机构，但如果这事情很快发生，我认为这将持续增强我们对Gigabullin在年底期间加速发展的信心。

We talked a little bit about okay is this a step change going from 35000 because of this additional shift with that allowing the ramp to progress a little bit more quickly than the prior milestones maybe would have implied. If so it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect that progress to level off a little bit but if there are these plans for a fourth shift that might just keep on rolling. So we'll be on the lookout for any more updates on that and then just a quick thing on Gigabullin there was a sort of Gigabullin cinematic toer published by a youtuber in Germany nothing really new out of that but it does give some nice context for what is happening there at the factory so I will put that link down in the description.

我们谈了一点关于这是否是从35000迈向一种变革，因为有了额外的转变，使得斜坡比之前的里程碑要快一些。如果是这样，进展有可能会稍微平稳一些，但如果有第四次转变的计划，那么它可能会继续滚动。因此，我们将继续关注是否有更多的更新，然后在Gigabullin方面很快我们会分享一个德国YouTuber发布的Gigabullin影片，其中没有什么新的内容，但它很好地呈现了工厂的情况，所以我将在描述中放上链接。

Next up we've got a handful of cyber updates first with the cyber vault we talked about this on Friday Tesla put out that teaser image we've now got the full details this is available in Tesla shop in China maybe not quite what we would have expected it or hoped it to be based on the teaser but this is a charging product for $800 and it's basically a housing unit for a walk connector or mobile connector that can keep that connector secure it does have lock functionality on it so if you're in a shared garage you can lock that up you don't have to worry about someone taking your connector or taking your power definitely a nice option for some people to have.

接下来我们有几个网络更新，首先是关于我们在上周五谈论的网络保险库。特斯拉发布了一张宣传图片，现在我们已经得到了完整细节。这个产品在特斯拉中国商店可以购买。可能不是我们根据宣传图片期望或希望的那样，但这是一个售价800美元的充电产品，基本上是一个为充电器或移动连接器提供保护的外壳单元，具有锁定功能，如果你在一个共用车库里使用，你可以将其锁上，不必担心有人拿走你的连接器或电源。对于有些人来说，这绝对是一个不错的选择。

I don't know if a product like this warranted a tease ahead of announcement but obviously we as a Tesla community can get a little bit overhyped sometimes partially on us but Tesla's also got to kind of expect that to be the case with something like this. Anyway elsewhere in the cyber world we've got a couple of cyber truck updates Elon over the weekend tweeting that he did walk the entire cyber truck production line at Kegatexus for several hours earlier that day saying it's going to be awesome and feels like the future so it's good I guess that it's taking several hours to walk the production line means there's something there to walk things continue to feel like they are finally pretty much on track this time around also over the weekend Tesla tweeted out a sort of an April fools teaser video of the cyber truck doing its crash test but not actually showing the crash instead just a painfully infinite loop of the anticipation of that moment very reminiscent of the unsatisfying meme of a truck about to crash in a pillar that just never happens.

我不知道像这样的产品是否值得在发布前做一个小插曲，但是很显然，我们作为特斯拉社区有时会有点狂热，这部分归因于我们自己，但特斯拉也必须预计到，像这样的情况可能会发生。在网络世界的其他地方，我们得到了一些关于cyber truck的更新，伊隆周末发推文说他在Kegatexus看了整个cyber truck生产线，时间长达数小时，称这将是很棒的，感觉像未来。我觉得好的一面是，走生产线需要几个小时，这意味着有可走之处。这次似乎一切都很顺利，也在周末，特斯拉发布了一个愚人节的cyber truck撞击测试预告视频，但事实上没有展示实际的撞击，而只是一个令人痛苦的无限循环，预热那一刻令人想到一个卡车即将撞向柱子但却始终没有发生的不尽人意的冷笑话。

So hopefully at some point Tesla will show us that footage but as far as an April fools thing goes I think this was really well executed this has 70 million views on Twitter at least the tweet itself does 13 million views for the video but the 70 million for the tweet that is at least the most views on any tweet from Tesla this year I don't know if it's the most all time not going to look back through all their tweets historically but clearly Tesla did a nice job with this tweet and I think it also highlights the immense amount of interest in the cyber truck in general.

希望特斯拉能够在某个时候向我们展示那段录像，但就愚人节的事情而言，我认为特斯拉做得非常出色。这条推文至少在 Twitter 上有 7000 万次的浏览量，视频本身有 1300 万次的浏览量，但是这个推文获得了至少 7000 万次的浏览量，这至少是特斯拉今年推文中浏览量最高的。我不知道是否是特斯拉历史上浏览量最高的推文，不会对他们历史上的所有推文进行查找，但显然特斯拉在这个推文中做得非常好，我认为这也突显了人们对 Cybertruck 的浓厚兴趣。

And then one final thing on cyber truck caliber 197 on YouTube has posted a drone flyer video of the Fremont test track with the cyber truck out testing so we've seen this before but in this case I think probably the most interesting thing is that there are a couple of places in the video where you can recognize that the rear wheel steering is engaged on this vehicle. It's a little bit subtle but you can definitely see different angles on the rear wheels both when turning left and turning right.

最后要说的关于Cybertruck的事情是，YouTube上的Caliber 197发布了一段无人机录制的弗里蒙特测试赛道与Cybertruck测试的视频，我们以前看过类似的，但这次最有趣的一点可能是有几个地方在视频中你可以认出这辆车启用了后轮转向。这有点微妙，但你绝对可以看到后轮在向左或向右转弯时有不同的角度。

Alright, moving on we've got a couple of lawsuit updates today for Tesla. First, on a labor relations lawsuit. This isn't new; we've seen articles on this dating back to 2021, maybe even before that, but this isn't pure regarding a complaint from the U.I.W. for, among other things, a tweet from Elon Musk back in 2018 that they claim is a violation of labor laws. In that tweet, Elon said there was nothing stopping the Tesla team from unionizing if they wanted to could do so tomorrow, but why pay union dues and give up stock options for nothing.

好的，接下来我们要讨论特斯拉的一些诉讼更新。首先，是一起劳资关系的诉讼。这并不新鲜，我们可以追溯到2021年甚至更早的文章，但这不仅仅是针对美国工业工人联合会提出的申诉。其中包括埃隆·马斯克在2018年发布的一条推文，他们声称这是违反劳动法的行为。在那条推文中，埃隆称如果特斯拉团队希望明天就可以组成工会，但为什么要交工会费并放弃股票期权呢？

So in 2021, it was ruled that Elon would have to delete this tweet as it could be perceived as threatening. Tesla argued against this because, as Elon also tweeted at the time, the U.A.W. does not have any individual stock ownership as a part of their compensation at any other company, so that would seem to be a pretty reasonable assumption for that type of an outcome. Nevertheless, the appeal was denied, so no change in the ruling. Elon will still have to delete this tweet, which, as far as I can tell, seems to be the only thing that needs to be done. There were no changes in any other parts of this case either, but maybe this type of a ruling would have repercussions for other things down the road.

在2021年，人们裁定Elon必须删除这条推文，因为可能会被解读为具有威胁性。特斯拉提出了反驳意见，因为正如Elon当时推文所说，U.A.W.在其他公司中没有任何个人股票所有权作为他们的报酬，因此这种结果似乎是相当合理的假设。尽管如此，上诉被驳回，所以裁决没有改变。Elon仍然需要删除这条推文，据我所知，这好像是唯一需要做的事情。此案件的其他部分没有任何变化，但也许这种裁决对未来其他事情可能会产生影响。

This is probably the final ruling on this one. This is the Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. Next would be the Supreme Court, so Tesla could appeal, but it would be unlikely, I think, that the Supreme Court would take this case. So probably the end of this one, and then we also have an update on the racial discrimination lawsuit that we've talked about on a number of different occasions.

这可能是这个案件的最终裁决了。这是第五巡回法庭。接下来会是最高法院，所以特斯拉可以上诉，但我认为最高法院不太可能接受这个案件。所以这个案子很可能就这样结束了，然后我们还有一份关于种族歧视诉讼的更新，我们在许多不同的场合都谈到过这个问题。

This was once a $137 million award given, to the point if we've spent plenty of time on this, so I'm not going to go through all the details again, but that previously had been reduced to a $15 million award, and now a federal jury has reduced that to a $3.2 million award. I'm not sure on the exact status of this if there will be another go-around or if this will wrap this one up as well.

这曾是一个价值1.37亿美元的奖项，已经花费了我们很长时间，所以我不会再去详细说明了。但之前该奖项已经减少到了1,500万美元，现在联邦陪审团将它减少到了320万美元。我不确定目前的具体情况，是否还会有另外一次审理或者这将是最终结局。

Alright, let's move on to some first-quarter numbers from other automakers. These reports are still coming in, so we'll continue to keep an eye on these, but we'll start off with BYD. We've been following this through the China insured vehicle numbers throughout the quarter pretty closely, but from CNEV post, we now have full-quarter data to compare with Tesla.

好的，让我们开始看一些其他汽车制造商的第一季度数字。这些报告仍在陆续发布中，所以我们将继续关注这些情况，但我们首先会看毕马威的数据。在第一季度，我们一直在密切关注中国投保车辆的数字，但现在我们从中国电动汽车新闻网站（CNEV post）获得了与特斯拉进行比较的全部季度数据。

So the first one here, this is total BYD, including plug and hybrids, including EVs, BYD in green, Tesla in red. You can see a pretty big drop quarter over quarter for BYD while Tesla obviously a small gain quarter over quarter. That total number for BYD was about 550,000, so that was up 93% year over year but down 19% quarter over quarter.

第一个图表展示的是全新能源车销售情况，包括插电式混动车和纯电动车，BYD用绿色表示，特斯拉用红色表示。可以看到，BYD的季度销售量下降了很多，而特斯拉则趋于增长。BYD的总销量约为55万辆，同比增长了93%，但环比下降了19%。

For just fully electric vehicles, the numbers are similar, but of course, that takes a lot of the volume away from BYD that puts their number down to 265,000, 4K1. The year-over-year increased there was lower than their total, up 85% year over year and down 20% quarter over quarter. Now, obviously, just like with Tesla, there are headwinds for BYD and Q1 with EV incentives with Chinese New Year, since BYD is predominantly in China that's obviously especially important for them, but also highlights the strength of Tesla's number under those conditions.

对于纯电动汽车，数字类似，但当然，这使比亚迪的销售量减少到了265,000辆，4K1。年增长率比总增长率低，同比增长85％，环比下降20％。现在，显然，就像特斯拉一样，比亚迪和Q1面临电动汽车激励和中国新年的冲击，由于比亚迪主要在中国，因此这显然对他们尤为重要，但也凸显了特斯拉在这些条件下的数字实力。

Since we've been talking about this, hopefully, this number isn't too surprising, but I think it's very interesting to now see this from a full-quarter perspective, and we'll continue to watch this very closely as Q2 unfolds. As for the US specifically, we're starting to get some reports from automakers. We can see a recap here from Automotive News on the year-over-year comparisons. I think this sequential is a little bit more interesting. Unfortunately, those numbers aren't in this table, but we'll take a quick look at a couple of them.

自从我们开始谈论这个问题，希望这个数字并不太让人惊讶，不过我觉得现在从整个季度的角度看这个数字非常有趣，我们将继续密切关注二季度的情况。对于美国而言，我们开始收到一些汽车制造商的报告。我们可以在《汽车新闻》上看到年度对比的概述。我认为这个相邻比较更有趣一些。不幸的是，这些数字不在这张表格中，但我们会快速查看其中的一些数字。

So GM, they reported 603,000 vehicle sales in the first quarter that was down 3% quarter over quarter, and again, that's US only, but helps to provide some context for where Tesla is at. And as far as EV's go, this was actually a record for GM but just over 20,000 sold. They say they expect 50,000 for the first half of the year and then doubling that in the second half. So we'll see but expecting pretty big growth this year.

通用汽车报道，在第一季度销售了603,000辆车，环比下降3%。这只是美国市场的数据，但能帮助我们了解特斯拉现在的情况。在电动汽车方面，通用汽车销售量创下了纪录，但销售量仅超过20,000辆。他们表示，预计上半年销售50,000辆，下半年销售量翻倍。我们拭目以待，但他们预期今年的增长将相当可观。

If we look at the model breakdown, it's mostly Bolt and Bolt EUV that was about 19,700. There were 968 Lear exold, and just two Hummer pickups sold this quarter. Quick look at Toyota, they sold about 470,000 vehicles in North America that was down 8.8% year over year, down 13% quarter over quarter. We've also heard from Rivian. They announced production in the first quarter of about 9,400 vehicles’ deliveries just below 8,000.

如果我们看一下这个销售模型的细节，大多数销售的车型是Bolt和Bolt EUV，数量约为19,700辆。Lear exold销售了968辆，而Hummer Pickup只售出了2辆。再看看丰田，他们在北美卖了约 47 万辆车，同比下降了8.8％，季度环比下降了13％。我们也听到了来自 Rivian 的消息，他们宣布在第一季度生产了约 9,400 辆车，交付量略低于 8,000 辆。

That was actually down sequentially for both metrics, about 700 fewer vehicles produced than Q4 and 100 fewer vehicles delivered. So some pretty interesting numbers. We'll probably come back to this as Ford is expected to report tomorrow. I'd also be curious about Lucid, not sure when we'll get their numbers.

那实际上是两个指标都出现了环比下降，生产的车辆比第四季度少了约700辆，交付的车辆也少了100辆。所以说这些数字还是挺有意思的。我们可能会因为福特明天就要报告了而回归这个话题。我也想知道卢森(Lucid)的数据，不确定我们何时能得到它们。

Alright, last item for today just a quick note that there is a new video with JB Strable, of course, former CTO and co-founder of Tesla, and now the founder of Redwood Materials, just talking about some of the history of Tesla, what got it to where it is today, and JB's decision to leave that to start Redwood and some of what they are working on.

好的，今天最后一件事情，就是想提醒大家，有一段新的视频，讲的是JB Strable。他曾经是特斯拉的首席技术官和联合创始人，现在则是红木材料公司的创始人。视频主要谈到了特斯拉的历史以及它是如何发展到今天的。JB决定离开特斯拉开始创业，创立红木材料，并介绍了他们正在研发的一些项目。

So I thought it was pretty interesting I'll put a link for that down in the description if you want to watch that it's only about 45 minutes with the intros which actually were pretty interesting as well. So that link will be there if you want to check that out.

所以我认为这非常有趣，如果你想看的话，我会在描述里放链接。整个视频包括介绍只有大约45分钟，而这些介绍其实也很有趣。如果你想要查看，链接就在那里。

Alright, that'll wrap it up for today then as always thank you for listening make sure you subscribe and sign up for notifications you can also find me on twitter at Tesla podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Tuesday April 4th episode of Tesla Daily.

好的，今天的节目就到这儿结束了。感谢各位的收听，别忘了订阅并开启推送通知。如果想了解更多，也可以在Twitter上找到我，我的用户名是“Tesla podcast”。明天我们将为您带来4月4日星期二的《特斯拉每日新闻》节目。

Thank you.

谢谢。