Hey everybody Rob Manward here, welcome back to Tesla Daily. Of course we've got quite a few days worth of news to catch up on today including new details on the Cybertruck updates on Tesla in China and India and of course the launch of XAIs first product, Grock.
Looking at the stock Tesla today closing up just slightly less than a tenth of a percent to $222.11, the Nasdaq though up about a tenth of a percent, though largely over the last couple of days the stock unchanged from where we left it Friday within about 1%.
Alright so we're going to start off today with some new details on the Cybertruck. So this information is being shared today by the YouTube channel TFL EV. Now they do say that this isn't necessarily confirmed but they're claiming to have some inside details on the Cybertruck here including a number of new dimensions that we have not previously seen and they do have a couple of different photos that although don't necessarily validate it do give some credence to these numbers being correct including a look at the outlets that are at least on what maybe as a pre-production version of the Cybertruck looks like a NEMA 1450 outlet here which would be a 240 volt outlet probably capable of putting out somewhere between 10 and 12 kilowatts of power which would be obviously an exciting feature to have and then a couple of 110 volt outlets there as well. So obviously again not confirmed there but that would be exciting if this is indeed part of the production version pretty clearly this is a version of the Cybertruck at least. And then they do also share what they say as a top down view at the rear casted section of the Cybertruck. I don't know that this at least that I can learn a whole lot from this but again I think it adds some credibility to what we're talking about and maybe interesting look here for some that have a little bit more experience with those things. So anyway getting back to the dimensions they do say that the overall length is 18.6 feet that would be the equivalent of just over 223 inches just to quickly compare that with a couple of vehicles we've got the Ford F1T or the Ford F1 50 Lightning here getting that picked up with the R1T but for the F1 50 Lightning we can see the overall length 232.7 so about nine and a half inches less in length for the Cybertruck. The width, Tesla or the specs here are saying just under 80 inches so basically equivalent in width to the F1 50 Lightning and then for length and width comparisons on the R1T it's actually a little bit narrower the width there with the mirrors in would be about 81.8 inches so a couple inches wider than the Cybertruck but about five inches shorter in length. So hopefully that gives us a little bit of a feel for just the size of the vehicle in general and then we do also get some specs on the bed here so bed length 72.8 inches right around six feet which would be I think a little bit longer than maybe expectations initially especially with the shorter length of the vehicle. It'd actually be a longer length bed than the F1 50 Lightning which if we scroll down a little bit here we can see the bed is 67 inches in length so about five inches more in bed length for the Cybertruck there if this again is accurate and then if we look at width 51 inches which is pretty close to both the R1T and the F1 50 Lightning. The R1T it does have again similar width but of course we know roughly four and a half foot bed there in the R1T. So of course the Cybertruck bed was always going to be longer but interesting to see those comparisons.
Long volume here 7 cubic feet that's about half the size of the F1 50 Lightning front trunk and then you can see some specs on just general leg room and things like that in the vehicle.
So we'll get all of this of course a little bit later on a couple more things here just curb weight. They do say the two motor version is about 6700 pounds the three motor version about 6900 pounds. Both of those would fall pretty close to the estimates or the rough ballpark that Elon gave us on the Joe Rogan podcast that we had previously talked about. In terms of what that would mean for maximum range they would be pretty impressive to get the 500 miles out of that so maybe a little bit of an indication that we should lower a range expectations but again don't want to make too many judgments off of this quite yet and then they do have the tow rating here at 1100 pounds this would be lower than what Tesla had initially stated but since there is only one tow rating here maybe that will vary across trims and of course these things could all change for the Cybertruck over time depending on what options Tesla wants to start with initially. So we'll see if those end up being accurate but nevertheless good to see some of these details especially like the power options here. They do say that no outlets in the front despite these three in the rear of the vehicle obviously can work around that. I think it would be nice if that availability was there up front too. Maybe that's something that will change for the production version but for now should probably not expect that.
All right so moving on we do have a couple other things from the Cybertruck. I just want to add that out of order there but we'll go back to that one. So there was a matte black Cybertruck that was spotted being driven by Franz von Holshausen so we've got a few images here from CNC picks on Instagram of that black Cybertruck which is I think something that a lot of people have been excited to see what it would look like in person. Got a short video here as well and then another one on X that has been shared by Tommy Kendall just a quick shot of it driving through a parking lot. So fun to see that and I'm sure we'll see a pretty frequent adoption of that sort of a matte black wrap for the Cybertruck.
And then we got an update from Joe Tagmire on the Cybertruck just saying that it does sound I guess I don't know if this is him saying this specifically or if he's repeating a rumor that was heard elsewhere I think Holmars had mentioned this as well but the word of the factory Gigataxis is that customer production of the Cybertruck has now started. So we're about three weeks out from that delivery event it would make sense timing wise for that to be the case but would be an exciting milestone if so for that official start of customer production and of course you can see the Cybertrucks being spotted as we frequently see from Joe. He also noted that there is some new equipment being shipped into Gigataxis today and it does sound like this is new paint shop equipment from the TKS labeling that he was able to spot. And interestingly it looks like this is actually going into an area of the factory that would be a new area perhaps relating to the next gen vehicle would be the speculation on that. So no way of confirming that of course at this point but obviously interesting to see this type of equipment on top of some of the other equipment that we've seen come in as well.
And then moving on to Tesla in China quite a few updates here first Tesla has raised the price on the long range version of the Model 3 and the Model Y. So for the Model 3 that was 1500 RMB or about $200 for the Model Y it was 2500 RMB or about 340 dollars. So pretty small price increases but as we can see the wait time here covering that a little bit but six to eight weeks for the long range version of the Model Y that's pretty lengthy late time especially pretty lengthy wait time especially for what we've seen over the last you know six months to 12 months or so. And for the Model 3 of course we just had the update to Highland so for them to be increasing the price maybe a little bit of a reaction to initial ordering interest for that updated vehicle. So overall probably good news for margins with these although small price increases those paired with the somewhat high relative wait times that we see. And of course on the Model Y performance we just had the 14,000 RMB increase on that trim probably a couple of weeks ago. So again probably positive signs there hopefully for demand and for margins but we'll keep an eye on that because obviously that can change quickly.
And then we do also have a little bit more granular data on the wholesale sales figure that we had talked about previously for October.
Remember that was 72,000 vehicles for the month.
We now have the breakdown for Model 3 in Model Y it's about 47,000 Model Y just under 25,000 Model 3.
So of course that represents a pretty good number that seems like we'll probably see some pretty good production from the Model 3 in October.
We should get those production details by Monday I would guess at some point probably in the next three or four days.
And then for export versus retail sales split we did see about 43,500 vehicles exported which is the highest that we have seen since the last October actually.
So pretty strong export number there is Tesla probably prioritizing exports for the Model 3 Highland initially and then retail sales coming in at about 28,500.
So we'll continue to fill in these details as we get them over the next few days.
And then we do also have an updated insured vehicle number for this week 14,000 is the number so we're starting to see as we had talked about last week a bigger contribution likely from Model 3 Highlands being delivered in China.
This number is the best of this quarter obviously so far and the best numbers that we have seen since August.
So obviously nice trend developing there for the fourth quarter week by week numbers.
About 5000 or so of those I believe were Model 3's.
And then also out of China we do have an update here from Tesla channel on X on an interview from Tesla's VP there tol then on some of the details about the upgraded Model 3.
Many of this many of these details we have talked about so improvements from the upgraded model three happened at the R&D center in China.
We've already had I believe a video that included Lars talking about some of those changes but they say ventilated seats new interior materials quietness and ambient light developed by the Shanghai R&D innovation center.
They talk a little bit about some details on local storage of data we've talked about that production production car coming off the line every 30 seconds or in about 30 seconds.
So if you annualize that that rate that comes out to roughly what Tesla's production rate has been near a million vehicles per year.
So although that got some attention probably nothing too new on that point automation in the welding workshop is now close to 100% gigacasting reduces manufacturing time from one to two hours to three to five minutes presumably on those parts and all the labor hours that are going into that not necessarily the pace of getting the vehicles off the line or anything like that more of just the labor hour consideration on that point.
And then finally perhaps the most interesting point the Shanghai megapack factory mega factory will cover the global market.
So obviously we know Tesla ramping it up ramping their mega factory up in Lathrop have plans for another mega factory in Shanghai but it sounds like that will export which should be no surprise given what we see from gigashang high on the vehicle side.
But nevertheless I think that's exciting and hopefully suggest that there will be room to grow this factory potentially pretty significantly above the initial production stage.
And then moving on to India we've got a couple updates here this one being reported by the economic times.
Apparently the prime minister's office in India is holding meetings regarding the status of electric vehicles and import tariffs that will obviously affect Tesla's decision to be active in the country potentially invest in the country.
We've talked before about how there's probably a need to start the business before doing something as aggressive as setting up a whole factory there.
And if you can get vehicles in there and start to grow awareness, build your infrastructure that's going to be a lot more confidence inspiring to be able to make that full commitment.
So that's kind of what Tesla's been pushing for.
A top official told the economic times that the agenda of the meeting was centered on policy general policy matters but fast tracking approvals by January 2024 for Tesla's proposed investment in the country was spelled out.
They also say that the ministries and government departments have been asked to ask to iron out any differences with Tesla and pave the way for announcing the company's India manufacturing plan at the earliest point that they can't.
And then finally they do say that a new category for electric vehicles may be introduced specifically for tariffs that would allow them to be taxed differently of course lower.
That would not apply only to Tesla but for anyone that is looking to set up electric vehicle manufacturing specifically in India.
So it sounds like there's been a little bit more progress or more urgency on making these changes that will make it a little bit more feasible for Tesla to start building that business and then eventually invest.
What commitments might be required for Tesla from that remain to be seen. But it does sound like the Commerce Minister of India is going to meet with Elon Musk next week to kind of discuss the items that we've talked about here.
So we continue to hear about this. Elon has said that they will most likely make significant investments in India at some point in the future. It's something that he's very excited about. This probably contrasts a little bit with some of the hesitancy or the uncertainty that Elon has talked about on the earnings call with the macroeconomic environment.
But if Tesla can even start laying that groundwork anytime you enter a new market is it's going to take some time to build that up. So the earlier the testing can get started on that and kind of develop these plans. I think the better and then as the economy hopefully eventually stabilizes a little bit a little bit less uncertainty they'd have that more ready to go.
So we'll keep it on the results of that meeting next week. And then one of the most interesting updates over the last few days.
所以我们会在下周会议的结果上继续进行讨论。然后是过去几天中最有趣的更新之一。
I guess XAI has launched Grock on X for X premium plus members that have been in that membership period for a long time. It's kind of weird but limited access right now. Grock or Grock not sure exactly how Elon is wanting us to pronounce it but I've always heard Grock so that's what I'm going to go with for now.
This is essentially a chat GPT sort of system that can be used by X premium plus members. Again a limited capacity right now. Of course with some Elon added differences in terms of some of the topics that we'll cover and the ways that it will cover those topics as I'm sure many of you have seen.
这本质上是一个类似于聊天的 GPT 系统,只能由 X 优享会员使用。目前的容量有限。当然,在一些我们将涉及的话题和涉及这些话题的方式上,会有一些埃隆加入的不同之处,我相信你们中的许多人已经见过了。
But it's a super exciting development both for X and for other companies that will likely interact with XAI which Tesla would of course be among as we have talked about since the XAI sort of official announcement.
So the tweet or the post that I have up here from Elon says that provided that our vehicle AI computer is able to run the model Tesla will probably have the most amount of true usable inference compute on earth even in a Robotaxi future the cars will only be used for one third of hours per week leaving two thirds for distributed inference like SETI.
So depending on what Elon means exactly with this whether this is allowing these vehicles to use Grock for inference or for training or things like that it is a potentially significant update that would be made to Tesla vehicles in the future.
I think at its most simplest or at most basic level even just having an AI assistant in the vehicle to handle things like voice commands and those types of interactions especially if we look a little bit forward to the Robotaxi future that Elon mentions here where you could just easily get in the car tell it to take you to go get groceries and come back in a half an hour and find parking in the interim if it's your car or send another ride and 30 minutes to pick you up when it's if it's a Robotaxi and you're letting it be on the network or using cars on network just having that natural language interaction with a vehicle like that will be pretty exciting and obviously a lot of possibilities beyond just a simple logistical case like that.
So it'll be interesting to see how this develops it sounds like this is probably something that they're they're working on over time with Elon saying that their you know a our computer is going to need going to need to be able to run the model but you know in general I think the interaction or the correspondence that these companies will have with each other is probably only going to increase over time.
So we'll obviously keep an eye on that and just kind of fun to see the initial stages of Groc right now. And then one quick thing here on Tesla so there was some reporting today that the updated model three the Highland Model 3 has a HEPA air filter like we see in other Tesla vehicles previously this has been a size constraint issue.
因此,我们显然会密切关注这个,现在看到Groc的初期阶段感觉还挺有趣的。还有一件关于特斯拉的事情,今天有报道称,更新的Model 3(Highland Model 3)采用了HEPA空气过滤器,就像我们之前在其他特斯拉车型中看到的那样。之前有一个尺寸限制问题。
So some reporting today that this was the case however it does not appear to be I think best case it's not confirmed kind of worst case this was just an inaccurate report so just wanted to pass that along as we wait to hear for some confirmation on that point.
So we'll start with Rivian here they've actually updated their guidance to a total production expectation this year of 54,000 vehicles. At the beginning of the year I believe that started out at 50,000 they increased that again to 52,000 or they increased that previously to 52,000 now again to 54,000.
They've also improved their e-bit guidance so obviously still expecting a loss for the year but updating that to a $4 billion loss from $4.2 billion previously and they lowered their capex guidance for the year actually very significantly from the previous $1.7 billion now to $1.1 billion.
So whether that's through efficiencies or more likely through less aggressive capital expenditures remains to be seen but a pretty significant reduction there which probably pretty given the current situation.
We've talked a lot about what Tesla is doing here. Despite some of the slower language being used for Giga Mexico it is important to recognize that Tesla actually increased their capex guidance for this year so a little bit of disparity in the actions there.
And then Rivian is also those are the Q2 numbers just had those up for reference but Rivian is also announced that they will be I don't know if I've got it here but they are going to expand the sales of their delivery vans. Here we go.
然后,Rivian也是Q2财报数字仅供参考,但他们还宣布将扩大销售他们的交付货车。让我们看看。
Beyond just Amazon so I'm sure many of us have seen those vehicles out and about for Amazon they had a contract that was going to be for 100,000 of these vans through 2030 I believe. It looks like I don't know if they've renegotiated that contract or something like that but it looks like Rivian is now offering these starting at $83,000 for a vehicle with a range of you know 170 miles or so.
Obviously this is for last mile delivery so potentially range not as as important but those would kind of be the initial specs for most likely for fleet customers would be what Rivian would be looking to work with on these vehicles. So we may see those soon popping up for other companies outside of Amazon.
And then for Lucid in contrast the Rivian production increase target here they have lowered their production volume target now to 8,000 to 8,500 vehicles for this year I believe previously that was around 10,000 but I don't have that number in front of me.
They do say that from a cash position perspective they are sufficient into at least 2025 despite planning for start of production for the Lucid gravity SUV next year but they did lose around $700 million in free cash flow this quarter.
You can see the net loss here of $631 million from an income perspective most interestingly though just want to focus in on and I know this is kind of small.
You can see though revenue $138 million for the quarter cost of revenue $470 million. So it's not just the sort of scale of the business that is causing the loss in terms of the fixed cost of the business not covering the gross profits.
There are no gross profits. You can see the gross loss here $332 million that is extreme to say the least for this level of revenue for a company that has now been producing cars for a year, year and a half or probably even a little bit longer than that now.
So things continue to look pretty bleak for Lucid. Obviously continue to be very reliant on funding and I don't really see when that will change given the current operations but they did announce that they are going to be adopting the North American charging standard.
So one of the last holdouts here I think we're down down to basically just folks wagon if I recall correctly but Lucid will be adopting this in 2025 as well as offering an adapter at that point in time.
And then finally for cruise we did get a recall posted I believe yesterday from NHTSA.
然后最终我们确实收到了昨天来自美国国家公路交通安全管理局的召回通知。
So cruise is recalling they say 950 vehicles here. This will be an over the air software update.
邮轮正在回调,这里说的是950辆车。这将是一次通过无线软件更新的过程。
So like with Tesla not a true recall like obviously can be the case sometimes but is infrequently the case. So for this this is basically a software update that they say remedies the issue that we had talked about before that has led to the DMV action in San Francisco which ultimately has led to the suspension of their driverless services.
They are still doing supervised test drives so the fleet isn't completely grounded but those vehicles have now been updated with this fix or alleged fix.
他们仍在进行监督式测试驾驶,因此车队并未完全停飞,但这些车辆现在已经进行了修复或被称为修复的更新。
The 950 number I thought was interesting because we had previously talked about that report that said there were 400 cruise vehicles on the road and that had also given us information like the two and a half to five mile rate for interventions from remote drivers and the one and a half remote drivers per vehicle.
That had said 400 vehicles this is saying 950 this is probably more accurate but there could be a distinction between that 400 and the 950 that we're talking about here and that distinction could easily just be the number that were fully autonomous fully driverless versus the sort of full test vehicle crew.
So I'm not writing that report off yet but I did find the difference in numbers a little bit interesting.
所以我并没有完全否定那份报告,但我确实对数字的差异有些感到有趣。
And then Cruz is also according to Forbes which got an audio copy of the all hands meeting that the CEO Kyle Vogt had.
然后克鲁兹也根据《福布斯》的报道得知了首席执行官凯尔·沃特主持的全体员工会议的音频副本。
I'm not sure if it's a photo void but the audio recording of their update to the company that we had previously talked about as a part of that they did announce that they are going to be halting production of the origin vehicle which is sort of the purpose built Robotaxi that they have been working on.
We had talked about previously them starting production of this that no surprise with the suspension of driverless services has now been paused.
我们之前讨论过他们开始生产这个产品,并且暂停了无人驾驶服务,这并不令人惊讶的事情现在已经暂停了。
Alright that'll wrap it up for today so as always thank you all for listening make sure you are subscribed and signed up for notifications you can also find me on X at Tesla podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Thursday November 9th episode of Tesla Daily.