The EV market is acting very much like what I would say the industry of old, the auto industry of old. With price cuts, rising inventory, increased incentives to kind of juice market demand. And you're seeing the automakers, you know, take a very rational approach that says, listen, we were ahead of the curve here in terms of consumer acceptance. So we're going to push back investments. But from where we stood six months ago, it's going to be a more challenging time for everyone involved in the EV market right now. It's going to take longer than everybody expected. I mean, you know, at the end of the day, you know, you're having the established automakers pushing out these investments to save capital.
But let's face it, General Motors is still sticking to their plan of having a million units of production capacity by the end of 2025. And as they close out 2023, you know, they'll be selling slightly less than 100,000 EVs. So that's a 10 X increase in the next two years. And yes, they're coming out with new products. But at the end of the day, the challenges for consumers are cost. You know, EVs still, even though they've come down significantly this year, about 20, 25%, they're still more costly than ice vehicles. Welcome to electrified. It's your host, Dylan Loomis. Quick shout out to my new or updated patrons, Jane Yes, Michael G and Jim H. Thank you for choosing to support the channel.
On those comments from Mark, you would think somebody so plugged into the industry would relay the talking point about the total cost of ownership when it comes to electric vehicles. Yes, the upfront sticker price may be higher to comparable ice vehicles. But for anyone that actually wants to support the transition to EVs, we should always be trying to shift the talking point over to the TCO. Plus, when you add the tax credits into the mix, you can go get a Model Y for $36,000 and the average ice transaction price right now hovers up. And the average ice right now hovers around $48,000.
Rather than just parroting narrative headline talking points, how about looking at the actual data? If we look at global BEV adoption, quarter by quarter, you can see we just set a new record globally at 11.8% for Q3 of this year. Now, there's a chance we do see a slowdown in the growth rate, but people are now acting like this chart would be plummeting down to zero. The conversation really needs to be that legacy auto is pulling back EV investments, which will only make things easier for the likes of your Teslas, Rivians, and even Lucids. Not that things are easy for Lucid right now, but you know what I mean.
Rohan Patel, Tesla's policy advisor, said the number one priority for the legacy auto industry truck-end car is to water down climate standards in almost every jurisdiction, and though the announcements may not be coordinated, you can bet the industry associations are using this line of argument. So every time you see the doomsday EV demand takes, just know that it's very lazy analysis and requires much more nuance to the conversation.
Following up on the segment yesterday about AM radio, we talked about Tesla not having analog AM in its vehicles, but Rohan Patel reminded people that Tesla does have many streaming radio stations, and you can actually search your favorite AM station. So you can have access to AM radio without it being analog, and any emergency service still using analog technology, they're the ones that should be forced to update their infrastructure and their operations.
We have a few sources reporting Tesla is going to begin its entry into the Indian market with imports, but only from Gigabrelin, because India is not very keen on Tesla importing from China. To start, this would obviously limit Tesla to Model-I's coming from Gigabrelin since they don't make Model 3's there yet. I can't vouch for the original source money control, but they also said that Tesla plans to launch the $25,000 EV in India.
Well-informed sources are saying Tesla has been dissuaded by Indian government officials to import any car from Shanghai due to geopolitical tensions between India and China. They added Tesla is currently seeking a customs duty cut on the import of EVs for CBUs completely built vehicles from Gigabrelin. It does sound like this would just be for the initial phase of Tesla's entry into India, and in the future of course they could still build a factory if things go well, and eventually they could start importing the Model 3, maybe from the United States if China is going to be off limits, unless Tesla begins making the Model 3 in Berlin as well. The word is, any customs duty concessions for Tesla are still speculative.
This is clearly still an evolving story, and Tesla has not given any indication as to a timeline when any type of entry into the Indian market may begin. But one storyline that's been consistent the past few weeks, it looks like Gigashang High may be off the table when it comes to Tesla imports into India. It sounds like we might get more information on this toward the end of next week, as we have Elon set to meet with Piyush Goyal, the leader of the house in India. Sources are saying the conversation will be around Tesla setting up an Indian factory, manufacturing the $25,000 car, and sourcing more components, and building out the supercharger network. They'll also touch on the import duty, they'll also touch on the import duties for EVs, and here they're saying a tax rate for Tesla as low as 15%.
Basically all year, we were expecting to get the next Gigafactory announcement sometime this year, but I won't be surprised if we don't get it until Q1 or Q2 2024. A Reddit user said the first V4 supercharger location in East Point, Georgia is now operational, Magiktok, and payment screens are installed, but they're not yet operational. There are 16 stalls and one trailer only lane.
We have a Swedish source with an update on the Tesla strike situation. More and more unions are now joining in the sympathy strikes. We have a real estate union, transport workers, harbor workers, and electricians as we touched on. Two more unions are looking to join the strike that will begin on November 20th. This time around, it'll be a blockade against the distribution, delivery, and collection of shipments, letters, packages, and palettes. Now we have November 17th and November 20th as the two dates to watch when things will be ratcheted up against Tesla in Sweden.
Back to V4, the superchargers at Gigabrelin are now ready for use. Previously I heard these superchargers were not open to the public, but here we have a Tesla employee saying that these V4s at Gigabrelin are indeed ready for visitors. Let me know if you have any more information, it would make sense to have these open to the public, especially now that the Gigabrelin lobby is up and running and open to the public.
We got the breakdown for Tesla China's October figures. We have 43.4 thousand exports and 28.6 thousand domestic deliveries. We should get production numbers soon, and it'll be interesting to take a look at the Model 3 production for the month. I did go back and check beyond what you can see on the screen right now. This was actually the second highest month for Tesla exports from China ever. The only month that's been better from an export perspective was actually October of last year with 54.5 thousand.
Seems like a fitting time to share this chart from Clean Technica, looking at the top selling plug-in vehicles globally for September this year. Model Y far and away the number one, but look at the rest of the top 14. They are all domestic Chinese EV brands, except the two from Tesla, the Y in the three, and two from VW, the ID4 and the ID3. And yes, I believe it's also true that the Model Y is on track to be the best selling car of any type, not just EV in the world for this year, and in a few months we'll find out for sure.
看起来是个合适的时机分享一下 Clean Technica 的这份表格,它展示了今年九月全球畅销的插电式车辆前十四名。Model Y遥遥领先,但是看看其他十三个名次。除了两辆特斯拉的 Model Y 以及大众的 ID4 和 ID3,剩下的都是中国国内的电动汽车品牌。而且,我相信 Model Y 有望成为今年全球畅销车型,不仅仅是电动汽车,几个月后我们就能得到确定答案了。
Here we get into some Cybertruck news. First, Joe Tettmeyer said the Cybertruck went through some water leak testing at Giggle Austin. He did also mention dozens of revised Cybertruck castings, but not too many things to take away from this image. Certainly a pretty interesting contraption, and Joe did say that he believes customer production of Cybertrucks started last week. I could speculate on these revised castings, but we're so close to the actual event, I'm just going to hold off. We'll find out everything for sure soon enough.
Joe also mentioned these new colored wheel covers for the Cybertruck. You can see around the edge it does appear to be gray, at least from this angle. Not only do we have the Cybertruck undergoing water testing, but some snow testing up in Alaska as well. We also got this video from TFL-EV on YouTube. They said they had an insider source share some information about the Cybertruck, first of which was this image inside the Cybertruck bed. Port door open showing us two 110 volt outlets and a 220 volt, up to 250 volt NEMA 1450 outlet. In the US we tend to blend it all together 220 up to 250. I'm just going to refer to this as a 240 volt outlet.
If you zoom out, you can see this gentleman pointing to a tie down. Some people were asking if that was an air compressor. It looks like that's just a bolt inside that tie down that essentially pops out. So far I have not seen anywhere any confirmation that the Cybertruck will have an air compressor. I know that will be disappointing to some, but nowadays you can just buy mobile air compressors and take them with you. Now if these are the only outlets that Cybertruck has, this will not stack up super favorably with trucks like the Rivian R1T and especially the Ford F-150 Lightning that has over 10 outlets on board at various locations. But again, I'm not drawing any definite conclusions. I'm not going to speculate or get into this too far right now because in about 22 days we're going to know everything for sure. For example, for the NEMA 1450 they said there's a label right here that says 2 kilowatts. Why Tesla would limit the 1452 kilowatts? I don't know, but again, let's just wait and see.
They also shared these unconfirmed specs, first of which, length 18.6 feet. That would make it about 6 inches longer than a Rivian R1T but shorter than an F-150. I do want to say up front, some of these specs, even if they were true, are going to be adjustable. For example, the overall height, with an adjustable suspension, this number is actually going to change. They have a tow rating of 11,000 pounds, but Tesla may also offer different tow ratings for different trims. This figure would put the Cybertruck in line with some industry averages, but a couple years ago Tesla did mention a 14,000 pound tow rating. But again, maybe higher trims have better ratings. When it comes to front volume, they have 7.1 cubic feet. Now, most of the other trucks we have the Rivian R1T, Chevy Silverado, the F-150 Lightning, they're all over 10 cubic feet, and on the high end, the F-150 is around 14 cubic feet. They have the bed length just over 6 feet, and of course the weight capacity of the front comes in at 420 pounds. They also have a 220 pound difference between the dual motor and the tri motor variants, topping out at 6,890 pounds. The curb weight of the Rivian R1T starts at around 7,100 pounds, so the Cybertruck is relatively pretty light, which means, yes, it could be super fast. This sheet did also say no outlets in the front. So again, all of this is unconfirmed. Honestly though, nothing really sticks out as being glaringly wrong, at least in my opinion, let me know what you think.
They did also share this image they received. They said it was of the rear axle and the dual motor setup, leaving one motor for the front axle on this vehicle. This would be under the Cybertruck bed, so I'm not sure if it's customer accessible or they just had this image from somewhere else. Just remember, we've all waited years, we can wait another 22 days to get the final official specs.
Last night, Tesla Asia posted some photos of the first deliveries of the upgraded Model 3 in Shenzhen, China. Just a quick one, we have Indonesia calling on the United States and Europe to help it develop manufacturing capabilities for EVs and batteries. They said the government could reward businesses that come with the spirit of creating EV ecosystems in Indonesia with incentives. They didn't really list any specifics, but Indonesia is still pushing hard to go beyond just a supplier of nickel.
Chinese automaker Glee has teamed up with Malaysian partner proton holdings, of which Glee owns about 49.9%. They're set to invest $10 billion in both R&D and manufacturing in Malaysia. The Southeast Asian market is heating up when it comes to EVs as we just saw BYD setting up shop in Thailand.
I listened to the Rivian Q3 call, the main takeaway, they are laser focused on the R2 platform and they sound very optimistic about how things are going specifically.
我听了Rivian第三季度的电话会议,最重要的结论是,他们专注于R2平台,并且对目前进展非常乐观。
When it comes to suppliers for the R2, the bill of material cost reductions we're seeing and these are significant and we're going to see them quarter over quarter. I've described it before, almost like this staircase set of changes quarter over quarter with a big step being that which comes in quarter to next year.
But we've been able to leverage suppliers excitement for R2 to achieve materially lower costs in our bill materials. That will start to layer in along with what comes in Q2, but even beyond that.
R2 is sort of this incredible carrot for suppliers. One of the things that's become very clear, particularly in the last two to three quarters, is just how well the Rivian brand is resonating. And suppliers are recognizing relative to some of the other customers just how much volume we're delivering and how much demand there is for our products.
Relative to a wide variety of established brands and they recognize that that excitement for our brand will also translate to lower price points. And the R2 captures the essence of our brand, but of course, to the smaller package and a much lower price.
Today we got a new blog post from Cruz. They're issuing a voluntary recall of their AV software after they found collision detection subsystems may cause Cruz AVs to try to pull over out of traffic. Instead of remaining stationary, when a pullover is not the desired course of action.
They've hired a third party engineering firm to perform a technical root cause analysis on the October 2nd pedestrian incident.
他们聘请了一家第三方工程公司,对10月2日的行人事故进行技术根本原因分析。
CNBC added that the recall will affect 950 Cruz Robotaxes. Cruz is now also looking to hire a chief safety officer. Sounds like a role they should have had in place already. And yes, Cruz has already lost their permits to operate. They have grounded all of their vehicles. Now they're just doing this recall to take a look at the software and make some changes. This really results in more of a formality than anything actually changing with Cruz's current operation since they're not operating at all.
There was an infographic going around today from some Chinese media on Weibo that the Model 3 was now going to finally get the HEPA filter and Bio-weapon defense mode. To date, it's been the only Tesla without those features. The SX and Y all have HEPA and Bio-weapon defense.
But I'm not ready to confirm that's the case, nor is Drive Tesla Canada. This was the first image that was shared. It was a Model 3 interior as they talked about the benefits of a HEPA filter. But shortly thereafter, Tesla has changed that image to a Model Y interior. And in the original image, if you translate the image, there was actually no mention specifically of the Model 3.
但是我还没有准备好确认这是否是事实,Drive Tesla Canada也是如此。这是最早分享的一张照片。当他们谈到高效颗粒空气过滤器的好处时,这是一张Model 3的内饰照片。但是之后不久,特斯拉将那张照片改为了Model Y的内饰照片。而在原始照片中,如果你翻译这张照片,实际上并没有明确提到Model 3。
Plus, this would most likely be a feature Tesla would want to market fairly heavily because it would be a pretty big upgrade. Why wouldn't Tesla put a HEPA in the Model 3? Well, the simplest explanation is it still does not fit. So this one is still somewhat up in the air for now, but I'll definitely keep an eye on it.
On X, the governor of New Avo Leone shared two renderings of how they're preparing for Giga Mexico. They showed a new bridge, the widening of three lanes of the highway, and new access ramps. This will be the entrance to Tesla.
Today, pull start trimmed its 2023 delivery forecast to the lower end of its earlier guidance and halved its gross margin target, amid fears of a slowdown in EV demand and global economic uncertainty. Before they were guiding to 62, 70,000, now they said they're focusing on 60,000. The new gross margin target, 2% down from 4% previously.
Today, GM has entered into a partnership with, they say Wisconsin startup is actually based in Minnesota. It's called Neuron or NIRON Magnetics. This partnership will help GM develop electric motor magnets that can be made without rare earth elements. This is a 60 person company.
They said our teams will co-develop Iron Nitride motor magnet technology. I can't help but thinking back to when GM said it was going to co-develop technology with nickel motors. They didn't share much information or even how much GM invested into this partnership, but they did say the total investment from multiple companies was only $33 million.
Hope you guys have a wonderful day. You can find me on X linked below. Please like the video if you did and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters. Thank you.
希望你们今天过得愉快。你们可以在下方链接中找到我。如果你们喜欢这个视频,请点赞。也要特别感谢所有给我提供帮助的 Patre 下的支持者们。谢谢!