Volkswagen EV Orders Below Target, Cybertruck Details, Tesla Merch

Hey everybody Rob Man, we're here, happy Friday. Today we've got a pretty quiet Tesla news day, so it should be a pretty quick episode, but we do have some interesting updates from Volkswagen. Talk a little bit more about Kia's EV day that we mentioned earlier this week. Got some details on the Cybertruck, the Semi, and a few other items as well.

嘿大家，罗布曼在这里，祝大家周五快乐。今天特斯拉的新闻相对较少，所以这一期应该会很快结束，但我们有一些来自大众汽车的有趣更新。我们还会谈谈本周早些时候提到的起亚电动车日的一些细节。此外，还有一些关于Cybertruck、半挂车和其他一些事项的详细信息。

All right, looking at the stock, not the best day for Tesla today, down 3% to close the week at $251.12, also a tougher day for the NASDAQ down 1.2%. You may have noticed that there was some disagreement between Yahoo and Google on the closing price, but it looks like they've got that sorted out. If you saw it down a little bit less, unfortunately it did end at $251, so I just wanted to clear that up in case you did see that as well.

好的，看着股市情况，特斯拉今天不太好，下跌3%，以251.12美元结束本周。纳斯达克也遭遇较为艰难的一天，下跌了1.2%。你可能注意到雅虎和谷歌关于收盘价存在一些分歧，但看起来他们已经解决了这个问题。如果你看到的下跌幅度稍微小一些，不幸的是它确实以251美元收盘，所以我想澄清一下，以防你也有看错的情况。

But let's hop into the news from Volkswagen here. So Bloomberg article headline, VW's new electric vehicle orders missed target. We can see here that they've got a quote on their EV orders. Volkswagen's new orders for EVs failed to meet the company's targets in the third quarter, with the quote being, our order intake is below our ambitious targets due to lower than expected overall market trend.

但是让我们来看一下大众汽车的新闻。所以，彭博新闻的标题是大众的新电动汽车订单未达到目标。我们可以看到他们对他们的电动汽车订单进行了引用。大众汽车在第三季度的新电动汽车订单没有达到公司的目标，原因是市场总体趋势低于预期，因此我们的订单接收量低于我们雄心勃勃的目标。

So interesting update here from Volkswagen. They've actually seen, if we look at a little bit more context, they've actually seen growth on their EV business. Let me get this centered here. They did increase EVs to about 210,000 sales in the third quarter. That's actually a 41% increase year over year.

大众汽车公司在这里有一个非常有趣的最新消息。如果我们稍微看一下更多的背景，实际上他们的电动汽车业务取得了增长。让我来将其集中讨论一下。他们在第三季度将电动汽车销量增加到了约21万辆，相比去年同期增长了41%。

And I do want to actually pull in a little bit more context because although Bloomberg kind of chopped this quote out, it was part of a longer update for Volkswagen, which said that quote, despite the current general general reluctance in the European market to buy battery powered vehicles, we gained a market share and remained market leader in this segment. However, our order intake is below our ambitious targets due to the lower than expected overall market trend end quote. So it does sound to me like they're maybe referencing specifically in Europe, their order intake as that kind of follows the update on the European market here.

我确实想再提供一些背景信息，因为尽管彭博社删去了这段引述，但它是大众汽车的一则较长的新闻更新的一部分。该更新称，尽管当前欧洲市场对购买电动汽车存在一定的不情愿，但我们在这一领域的市场份额增加，并保持市场领先地位。然而，由于市场总体趋势低于预期，我们的订单量低于雄心勃勃的目标。因此，听起来他们可能在特别提及他们在欧洲的订单量，因为这与关于欧洲市场的更新相呼应。

So I do think that's important context, but Europe has actually been pretty much their strongest market for EVs. They've really struggled in China year to date their EV growth there, I believe is only up in the single digit percent range. So for them to then talk about having potential order issues in Europe as well. I think is a pretty strong signal for the business probably starting to, you know, get to that point where we've talked about where maybe these EV makers are going to plateau a bit. I mean, that's exactly what we're seeing here for Volkswagen in China.

所以我认为这是一个重要的背景，但实际上欧洲一直是他们电动汽车最强劲的市场。据我了解，他们在中国的电动汽车增长今年迄今只有个位数的百分比。因此，他们谈论到欧洲可能存在订单问题，我认为这是一个相当强烈的信号，表明这家企业可能开始进入我们所讨论的那种电动汽车制造商可能会平稳下来的阶段。这正是我们在大众汽车在中国所看到的情况。

Obviously, they had some pretty good growth years there early on, but now with that growth leveling out, this sort of an update where order intake is below their targets. Obviously, that makes growth much more difficult than when you're very early in the growth curve and you're just kind of growing up to those 100,000 to 200,000 unit levels.

显然，他们在早期有一些相当不错的增长年份，但现在随着增长趋于稳定，订单接收低于他们的目标，这种情况使得增长变得更加困难，与刚刚起步时逐渐增长到10万至20万单位水平时相比。

So very interesting to see this update with Volkswagen and is going to lead to an interesting period here because Volkswagen still has, like they say here, ambitious targets, a nice graph from Bloomberg here of what their announced targets are in terms of their EV penetration to their total business. So it looks like for 2025, they're, you know, had previously mentioned targeting about 20% to their overall business growing to EVs and then up to about 50% by 2030.

非常有趣看到大众汽车公司的这一最新动态，这将引领一个有趣的时期，因为正如他们在这里所说，大众汽车仍然有雄心勃勃的目标。这里有一张来自彭博社的漂亮图表，显示了他们宣布的关于电动汽车在总业务中的渗透目标。看起来，到2025年，他们先前提到的目标是将电动汽车在总业务中占比增加到约20%，到2030年再增加到约50%。

But right now, their 2023 target, that was supposed to be 11%. They've actually dropped that target down to somewhere between eight and nine percent of total sales for this year. So tracking a little bit behind their targets. And if, you know, they're starting to plateau with orders, we could see that continue to miss and, you know, revised adjustments or, you know, revised numbers and targets going forward.

但现在，他们对2023年的目标原本是11%。实际上，他们将该目标下调至今年总销售额的8%至9%之间。所以他们的目标稍微落后了一点。如果订单开始趋于稳定，我们可能会看到他们继续错过目标，并对未来进行修正或调整原始数据和目标。

So for this quarter, it looks like it was about nine percent. So I do think they'll probably meet this for the year. But still, I think it's starting to get tougher and tougher. And I think the comment here from Volkswagen is somewhat of evidence of what we talked about a couple of weeks ago with those targets, you know, becoming tougher for automakers to hit. So you know, Volkswagen, obviously, we've seen a little bit of a shift in strategy for them to sense Herbert Dees left. And I think they're kind of writing the plans that Dees put into effect right now, which has gotten to them, them to this point. But to continue to grow beyond that is going to take again, tremendous effort, which I don't know that they're currently lined up to do.

对于这个季度来说，看起来大约是九个百分点。所以我认为他们可能会达到今年的目标。但是，我觉得情况变得越来越困难。而且，我认为大众汽车在这里的评论可以作为我们几周前谈论的那些目标变得对汽车制造商越来越难以实现的证据。显然，大众汽车在赫伯特·迪斯离职后改变了一些战略。我认为他们正在执行迪斯制定的计划，这使他们达到了目前的成就。但是要继续增长，还需要再次付出巨大努力，而他们目前可能还没有做好准备。

So we'll continue to keep an eye on their trend in coming quarters as they start to come off against these, you know, higher numbers in 2024.

所以，在未来几个季度中，我们将继续关注他们的趋势，因为他们将开始与2024年的这些较高数字相比较。

All right, quick update on Kia as we wrap up with other automakers kind of reverse order today with the lack of Tesla news. But Kia did hold their EV day as we had previously talked about.

好的，对于把特斯拉新闻放在最后一起整理其他汽车制造商的情况，给大家快速更新一下起亚的动态。正如我们之前所讨论的，起亚确实举行了他们的电动汽车日活动。

So they introduced concepts for both the Kia EV 3 and Kia EV 4. I believe this is the EV 4 here. So that'll be EV Sedan. And then the EV 3, that is going to be more of a compact SUV sort of in the style or this, you know, form factor of the Kia EV 9, but downsized a little bit.

所以他们提出了Kia EV 3和Kia EV 4的概念。我相信这就是EV 4。所以它是一款电动轿车。然后，EV 3将更多地成为一款紧凑型SUV，类似于Kia EV 9的风格或外形，但稍微缩小了一些。

I didn't see at least in the press release any dates for those, but we'll keep an eye out for more information as that comes out from Kia. Basically they're pretty quick with turning around these vehicles.

在新闻发布会上我没有看到任何关于这些日期的信息，但我们将密切关注起亚发布更多信息的时间。基本上，他们在研发这些车辆方面非常迅速。

And then the rest of EV day, just kind of talking about their EV plans in general. One thing I did note that was kind of interesting. They did say that in the first half of 2024, they have the Kia app scheduled for release. So that's obviously one area where we see Tesla have a pretty big advantage right now to say the least. And it'll be interesting to see what Kia, what they're offering looks like for their app early next year.

然后，剩下的电动车日，就是大致谈论他们的电动车计划。我注意到有一件有趣的事情。他们说2024年上半年计划发布Kia应用程序。显然，这是一个领域，特斯拉目前可以说相当具有优势。很期待明年初Kia的应用程序提供了什么样的功能。

All right, getting into the Tesla news again, just a couple of quick things today. So we've got a video that was posted on X by Nick Cruise, a patain, I think that would be said.

好的，再次来看一下特斯拉的消息，今天只有几件事情。我们在X上找到了一个由Nick Cruise发布的视频，一个帕坦（patain）的东西，我想这样说。

So it looks like this is a video from inside gigatexis where Tesla's producing 4680s and some of the storage facilities that they've got there for that battery production.

所以看起来这是一段从Gigatexis内部拍摄的视频，展示了特斯拉生产4680电池以及一些用于电池生产的储存设施。

So not a whole lot. I think that we could probably take away from here other than obviously there's looks like there's, you know, racks of cell storage here, which is nice to see kind of all in one place. And, you know, no surprise when Tesla's now produced 20 million of these things that they've got significant storage for it, but still an interesting kind of look behind the scenes at that 4680 facility.

翻译成中文：除了显而易见的这里有大量的储能电池架外，我认为我们可能没有太多能够从这里获得的信息。可以看到特斯拉已经生产了2000万个这样的电池，因此他们为之提供了大量的储存空间，这一点并不奇怪。但这仍然是一个有趣的背后幕后的一瞥，这个4680设施。

So kind of cool to see that. This person did also respond to a question on how old this video was and said that they didn't ask, but fairly recent they thought. They did ask if the majority of these were for Cybertruck and kind of interestingly, the response was that most of them are going into 4680 model wise.

看到这个真是太酷了。这个人还回答了一个关于视频拍摄时间的问题，他们说没有问过，但认为这个视频是相对较新的。他们还问，大部分的电池是用于Cybertruck吗？有趣的是，对方回答说大部分电池都是为4680车型而设计的。

But right now, obviously we've seen the 4680 model Y at least to the best of our knowledge, discontinued or at least not in the design studio. So a little bit perplexing on that. Maybe that comes back at some point. Maybe Tesla's got other plans or maybe it was an old video and at the time these were going into the 4680s or into the model wise, the 4680 version of the model Y.

但是目前来看，显然我们已经知道的最新消息是，4680版的Model Y至少已经停产或者至少不再出现在设计工作室中。所以这有点让人困惑。也许未来还会有新动向。也许特斯拉有其他计划，或者这只是一段旧视频，在当时提到的正是4680版的Model Y。

And then one other quick update on the Cybertruck today from Cybertruckownersclub.com. This person did come across, so day one reservation holder just kind of a new account here, but they did come across a Cybertruck out in the wild and they did get a little bit of measurements here.

然后是关于Cybertruck的另一个快速更新，来自Cybertruckownersclub.com。这个人最近在外面偶遇到了一辆Cybertruck，他是第一天预订的持有人，虽然是一个新账户，但他提供了一些尺寸测量的信息。

It's not the most official measurement from the pavement, but they found that the width of the Cybertruck, according to their measurements, was around, I believe, 78 inches. So I think they said the rear bumper was around 72, but then total width around 78. And then obviously they put their watermark on here.

这个数据并不是从官方提供的铺路测量数据得出的，但他们测量发现，Cybertruck的宽度大约是78英寸，我相信是这样的。所以我想他们说的是后保险杠大约是72英寸，但整体宽度大约是78英寸。然后他们在这里标上了他们的水印。

Hopefully that's not referring to Tesla daily as we would always credit the Cybertruckowners club and have many times in the past. But for those that were curious, you know, we get a little bit of a look there at what the dimensions might be. I think I read that that's a little bit narrower than the F-150 would be, but I would need to confirm that. And again, obviously this is just kind of a loose gauge from the pavement again. Nevertheless, interesting to see that.

希望这并不是在指称特斯拉每日新闻，因为我们会始终给予Cybertruck车主俱乐部应有的认可，并且过去也经常这样做。然而，对于那些好奇的人来说，我们可以从中看到Cybertruck的尺寸大致如何。我记得看到它比F-150要窄一些，但我需要确认一下。再次强调，这只是一个大致的评估结果，主要是通过地面来判断。尽管如此，看到这个也还是挺有趣的。

And then we've got a little bit more information on the Tesla Semi from the run on less event. This is from Automotive News. They said that the company, I believe this would be PepsiCo is the company they'd be referring to here.

然后，我们从"run on less"活动中获得了关于特斯拉半挂车的更多信息。这是来自《汽车新闻》的报道。他们说，我相信他们指的是百事公司。

Obviously operating the semis said that 60% of the miles driven over that run on less event were driven with a gross vehicle weight, which includes the freight, obviously, of over 70,000 pounds. So the limit for that for EVs is 82,000 pounds for non-EV trucks. It's 80,000 pounds. EVs get a little bit extra.

显然，对于半挂车来说，60%的行驶里程是在负载较轻的情况下完成的，其中包括装载超过70,000磅的货物。因此，非电动卡车的重量限制是82,000磅，而电动卡车的重量限制是80,000磅，电动卡车可以多承载一些货物。

But nearly a full load there. And that's a weight that's pretty typical apparently in the logistics industry. So that was something that we had wondered about when we were looking at that data if these were fully occupied vehicles up to kind of the weight capacity. And it looks for a lot of it, a lot of the miles that were driven that was pretty full load.

但几乎满负荷了。而且这个重量在物流行业似乎是相当典型的。所以当我们查看这些数据时，我们曾想知道这些车辆是否能够完全占用重量容量。而从很多行驶里程来看，大部分车辆都是满载运输的。

So nice to have a little bit more insight on that. I don't know if we have any additional data that's broken that down further. I'll take a look at that, but it's nice to see an indication there that at least the majority of the miles were pretty close to full weight. And obviously as we've already talked about with the results, I think very strong there, very supportive of the Tesla Semi and what it can do for the trucking industry.

很高兴对此有更深入的了解。我不知道我们是否还有更详细的数据。我会去看一下，但很高兴看到至少大部分里程都非常接近满载。而且，正如我们已经讨论过的结果所显示的那样，我认为这非常强有力地支持了特斯拉卡车对运输行业的贡献。

And then just a couple of other quick things here. So drive test Canada on X noting that the referral program has a new price, a potential prize awarded. So this is a long range, Model Y sweepstakes. This will end in January. So we had previously talked about the sweepstakes for the Model 3 performance version, very similar update here with Tesla offering a sweepstakes for the Model Y, which will end at the end of early end at the end of this quarter and be sort of delivered in early 2024. So the Model 3 that ended, I believe actually might have ended last week, but looks like now, you know, another new prize for the upcoming quarter. And we'll see if Tesla continues to kind of swap those out quarter by quarter.

然后还有几件其他的小事。所以加拿大驾驶测试中心注意到推荐计划有一个新的价格，可能会奖励一项潜在奖品。这是一个长程的Model Y抽奖活动。该活动将在一月份结束。我们之前已经提到过Model 3高性能版本的抽奖活动，这次特斯拉提供了一个Model Y的抽奖活动，将在本季度末结束，并在2024年初交付。我相信Model 3的抽奖活动可能已经在上周结束了，但现在看起来，下一个季度新的奖品已经出现了。我们将看看特斯拉是否会继续每季度更换这些奖品。

And then just an update on a kind of an old story here. There was a many years ago, a Model X, I believe that was found in the middle of a frozen lake and it had become on fire somehow. It had burned down somehow. And there was a lot of reporting on it at that point in time. It has now been concluded that this was arson, the person, or I guess insurance fraud, maybe not arson, but the owner set it on fire left in the middle of the lake. So you know, there was obviously reporting and questioning at the time if that was something that the Tesla vehicle started on fire, if it was manmade, we now have that confirmation. This is actually an update on an older report that actually gave us this confirmation already. So we have talked about this, but it's making the news again. But it was determined back in 2021 that this was the case that it was started by the owner. Anyway, the owner has now been sentenced. So that's why it's appearing in the news today. Again, if you did happen to see that, so just wanted to provide a little bit of context on that, but always nice to get a little bit more information on some of those older mysteries, which seemed pretty clear at the time, but still remain a little bit mysterious.

然后，只是对一个旧故事的更新。很多年前，我相信是在一个冰冻的湖中发现了一辆Model X，它以某种方式着火了。它在某种程度上被烧毁了。当时对此有很多报道。现在已经得出了结论，这是一起纵火案，可能是保险欺诈，而不仅仅是纵火，但车主将其点燃并留在湖中央。所以，当时有报道和质疑，是否是特斯拉汽车自燃，是否是人为纵火，现在我们已经得到了确认。这实际上是对一个早期报告的更新，这个报告已经给我们带来了这个确认。所以我们已经谈论过这个问题，但它再次成为新闻。但早在2021年就已经确定了这个情况，它是由车主引起的。无论如何，车主现在已经被判刑。所以今天它再次出现在新闻中。如果你确实看到了这个，我只是想为此提供一点背景信息，但总是很高兴可以获得一些关于那些旧的看似相当明确但仍然有点神秘的案件的更多信息。

And then last few things outside of Tesla. So we've got an update from WUWA on the CATL Shanghai plant. So this is very close to Gika Shanghai. The production capacity for this is supposed to be around 80 gigawatt hours per year. And as you can see from the WUWA video here, it's getting pretty close to finish. I don't know if it's actually quite there yet. As you can see, there's a little bit of a question mark here in WUWA's title about Shanghai plant opens, but he also interestingly noticed this vehicle that was out there driving around testing.

然后说一下特斯拉之外的最后几件事。我们从WUWA那里得到了关于CATL上海工厂的最新消息。这个工厂离吉卡上海非常近。预计该工厂的产能约为每年80千兆瓦时。从WUWA的视频中可以看出，工厂的建设已经接近尾声。我不知道它是否已经完全完成。正如你在WUWA的标题中可以看到的那样，关于上海工厂的开放还有一些疑问。但他也有趣地注意到了正在那里测试的一辆车。

We can see in the test slot here. He said that it kind of looked like a Tesla, but not close enough that he thinks it's a Tesla, he thinks it's something else, but wasn't quite sure what it was. So kind of interesting. Obviously, a lot of people expect most of, or at least a significant portion of the production here from CATL to go to Giga Shanghai as it's so closely co-located, but other automakers or maybe even CATL themselves have plans to use those batteries as well. So we'll try to keep an eye out for that as we get more information on kind of the ramp for the CATL factory there.

我们可以在测试槽位中看到，他说它看起来有点像特斯拉，但不够接近以致他认为它是特斯拉，他认为它是其他东西，但又不太确定是什么。所以这很有趣。显然，很多人预计CATL的生产将主要甚至至少有一部分用于上海超级工厂，因为它们距离非常近，但其他汽车制造商甚至可能是CATL自己也计划使用那些电池。因此，随着我们获取更多有关CATL工厂扩产计划的信息，我们将继续关注这一点。

And then just real quick, Tesla merch. So if you didn't see it yesterday, Tesla has added a couple new items to the shop, the cyber beer and cyberstein limited edition set, although it's limited edition still in stock. And then the cyber opener to kind of go along with that, which I think is out of stock, had a little indicator there before. Yeah, let's see. So cyber opener out of stock right now. I wouldn't be too surprised if Tesla added that back seems like a pretty easy to produce one. But if you are interested in those, you can find those on the Tesla shop, at least in the US, obviously the cyber beer, probably very similar to the giga beer that Tesla had introduced in Germany a while back.

然后很快地，谈一下特斯拉的商品。如果你昨天没有看到，特斯拉在商店里新增了几个新的物品，例如电动啤酒和电动啤酒杯的限量版套装，尽管是限量版，但目前还有货。然后有一个配套的电动开瓶器，我觉得可能已经卖完了，在之前有一点指示。是的，让我们来看看。目前电动开瓶器已经售罄了，我觉得如果特斯拉重新上架的话也不会太奇怪，因为这款产品应该很容易生产。不过，如果你对这些产品感兴趣，你可以在特斯拉商店找到，至少在美国是这样的，显然电动啤酒可能与特斯拉之前在德国推出的超级啤酒非常相似。

And then yeah, last couple of things.

然后，是最后的几件事情。

So SpaceX today, just a couple of quick updates. We had to push the stream a little bit today because SpaceX actually just completed a launch of 22 Starlink on Falcon 9. But not the only activity for SpaceX today as this morning, they launched Falcon Heavy again.

SpaceX今天有几个简短的更新。我们不得不稍微推迟视频直播，因为SpaceX实际上刚刚完成了Falcon 9运载火箭将22颗Starlink卫星送入轨道。但这还不是SpaceX今天唯一的活动，因为今早他们还重新发射了猎鹰重型火箭。

So those are always particularly exciting.

所以这些总是特别令人兴奋的。

This one is a very interesting mission. So it's the psych mission. This is going to be, you know, the launch was for for psych and they're going to be now voyaging for six years out to this asteroid to, you know, do some reconnaissance and research on that asteroid, the psych asteroid, which is going to be very interesting.

这个任务非常有趣。所以这是一个心理任务。这次发射是为了心理任务，他们将会出发前往这个小行星，进行大约六年的航行，进行一些侦察和研究工作，对这颗名为心理的小行星进行研究，这将会非常有趣。

So we'll have to wait a long time for an update on that, but always exciting to see if Falcon Heavy mission, first of all, and then this one is particularly unique. So again, a while from now, but it will be fun to, you know, get the results of that many years from now.

所以我们必须等很长时间才能获得关于这方面的更新，但是能看到猎鹰重型任务（首先）以及这个任务尤为独特总是令人兴奋的。所以，再过一段时间才能享受那许多年后的成果，但这将会很有趣。

And then just a quick look at the calendar as we go in the next week. So we will have kind of the normal economic reports. And then Fed Chairman Jerome Howell is speaking on Thursday. It sounds like that'll be his last update before the FOMC meeting in November.

然后我们来看一下接下来一个星期的日历。我们将会有一些正常的经济报告。而且联储主席杰罗姆·韦尔可能会在周四发表讲话。听起来那将会是他在十一月FOMC会议前的最后一次更新。

They go into a blackout period right before that. This one will actually be more important than the last time we talked about Fed Chair Powell speaking. That was kind of just a teacher's Q and A.

在那之前，他们会进入一个禁言期。这次比我们上次讨论美联储主席鲍威尔讲话更重要。那次只是像老师答疑一样。

This one is at the Economic Club of New York. So probably worth keeping an eye on the impact of that next week.

这个是在纽约经济俱乐部的活动。所以下周的影响可能值得关注。

All right, that'll wrap it up for today. And for the week, so as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. You can also find me on X at Tesla podcast.

好的，今天的节目到此结束。本周也结束了，所以像往常一样，非常感谢你的收听。请确保已订阅并开启通知。你也可以在特斯拉播客上找到我的节目。

And we'll see on Monday for the October 16th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

下周一我们会见面，一起观看Tesla Daily的10月16日节目。谢谢。