Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Lumis. So as it turns out, those giga Mexico delays may not be as impactful as we once thought. Axios just released an excerpt from the upcoming biography Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson and there are some gems.
Here's the backstory. November 2021, Elon and his top 5 lieutenants will call them, had decided the Robotaxi would be a smaller, less expensive, less speedy car than the Model 3, our main focus has to be volume. There's no amount that we could possibly build that will be enough, some day we want to be at 20 million per year.
Behind closed doors now, for years there have been debates between Elon, Franz and the rest of the team. Do they go all in Robotaxi style, put all their chips in, or do they still have a car that you can buy with a pedal, wheels, etc. But when talking about the Robotaxi specifically, they said they need to make sure it can shut its own doors if somebody gets out and forgets to close the door, and they've been asking the questions how can this Robotaxi get into gated communities or a parking garage, maybe it needs an arm that can punch a button or take a ticket.
And back to the internal debate, no surprise Elon was pushing for all in Robotaxi but most of the engineers were going for the safer, more conventional option. Some were of last year August 18th they had a meeting to figure it out. Elon's had suggested that Tesla makes a car that had a steering wheel and pedals that could be easily removed so once the regulatory environment is set and they solve for autonomy, they can just take them off.
Elon was not having it, he said no, no mirrors, no pedals, no steering wheel. This is me taking responsibility for this decision. Let me be clear, he said, this vehicle must be designed as a clean Robotaxi, we're going to take that risk. It's my fault if it F's up, but we're not going to design some sort of amphibian frog that's a halfway car. We are all in on autonomy.
A few weeks later, as they were rolling with that decision, Elon on the phone said this will be a historically mega revolutionary product. It will transform everything. This is the product that makes Tesla a $10 trillion company. People will be talking about this moment in 100 years.
What did I just say earlier this week? Sometimes it's a superpower being able to change your mind. Well, that's exactly what happened. After that meeting though, Franz and his engineers kept putting bugs in Elon's ear trying to convince him to build a more traditional vehicle. Lars said we brought him new information that maybe he wasn't fully digesting over the summer. Even if self-driving vehicles were approved by regulators in the US, it would be years before they were approved internationally. So it made sense to build a version of the car with a steering wheel and pedals.
All along throughout these debates, Elon thought the Robotaxi would make this other more traditional car unnecessary, but Franz quietly kept it alive as a shadow project in his design studio. Then September 2022, the lieutenants got together for a secret meeting and they presented data showing in order for Tesla to grow 50% per year, it needed to have an inexpensive small car. The global market for a car was huge, by 2030 there might be up to 700 million of them, almost twice as many for the Model 3 and Y category.
And this is the meeting where they showed Elon that the Robotaxi and a more traditional $25,000 car could be made on the same assembly lines on the same platform. After the meeting, Elon was unenthusiastic about the $25,000 car saying it's really not that exciting of a product. His heart was in transforming transportation through Robotaxis. But over the next few months, things changed.
At a design meeting February of this year, Franz had both the $25,000 car and the Robotaxi design side by side. Both had a cyber truck futuristic feel. Elon loved the designs. When one of these comes around a corner, he said, people will think they're seeing something from the future.
And that's when the new mass market vehicle, both with a wheel and as a Robotaxi became known as the next gen platform. And then that's when we heard about Gigamexico, but the more Elon and team thought about that, that wasn't the best option. Elon always believed Tesla's design engineers needed to be located right next to the assembly line rather than allowing manufacturing to be done at a remote location.
This way, engineers can get instant feedback on how to design innovations that would improve the car and make it easier to manufacture. Elon said Tesla engineering will need to be on the line to make it successful and getting everyone to move to Mexico is never going to happen. So may of this year, Elon changed the initial build location for the next generation cars and Robotaxis to Austin where his own workspace and that of top engineers would be right next to the new high speed ultra automated assembly line.
So it sounds like the next gen platform will make its debut in Austin potentially in the current factory that's there now without needing a new building somewhere else near it in Austin.
And yes, if I'm reading this correctly, it sounds like these lines for the next gen platform are already existing to some degree.
是的,如果我理解正确的话,听起来好像这些用于下一代平台的线路已经存在一定的程度了。
Throughout the summer of this year, Elon spent hours each week working with his team to design each station on the line, finding ways to shave milliseconds off each step and process.
As Elon has done in the past, he knew there was something just as important as the design of the project, the design of the manufacturing systems that would build the products at high volume.
So what does all of this mean? Well, we could see a Robotaxis and a $25,000 Tesla much sooner than we thought. Rather than waiting a year or two for Gigamexico to be built, we just learned Tesla is already working on the next gen manufacturing lines in Austin.
So now the Gigamexico delays become much more of an afterthought than a potential deal breaker. I bet we get an unveil event for these two products sometime next year, and perhaps by 2025 or 2026, we could begin to see some production of these next gen vehicles.
Tesla will use these trial lines with the new unboxed automated lines in the current factory in Austin. Tesla will need to do plenty of testing here and this is going to be an entirely new method of making a vehicle. Presumably with Optimus accounting for at least a portion of the automation of these lines.
It's really encouraging to hear Tesla will be rolling out a more affordable vehicle with wheels, pedals and mirrors as not everyone is going to want to live a Robotaxi life right away, summoning a vehicle every time they just want to run to the store.
And there will be others who just aren't ready to trust a new technology with their lives and we have all of the regulatory hurdles that Franz had mentioned too.
还有其他人可能还没有准备好将自己的生命托付给新技术,而且我们还要面临弗朗茨提到的所有监管障碍。
But these vehicles on one platform will yield great cost savings, faster manufacturing times, more shared parts and better economies of scale and more flexibility to pivot as the market warrants.
So now Gigamexico will be the factory where Tesla imports all of their learnings from the trial production in Austin. Since Tesla will need time to work on the new manufacturing lines and designs, this gives Gigamexico time to work through the permitting and the construction.
So while Gigamexico will still be the plant for mass market volume production of these vehicles, we could see some early official production coming out of Austin first.
What's more profound than the news of the next gen platform though is how committed Elon still really is. That line about Elon spending hours each week to shave off milliseconds of each process and step is just incredible.
As Elon said replying to Jason, Tesla is still hardcore after all of these years and Elon doubts there's a harder working company of Tesla's size in the world.
You guys have heard me say it 100 plus times but it's core to who Tesla is. Constant innovation like they're on the verge of going bankrupt or being disrupted. It's just a culture of the company that's been built and this cannot be duplicated or replicated overnight.
So yeah to everyone out there even many in the Tesla community that like to argue Elon is distracted with X and not focused on Tesla, come on now, it's just not true.
Now I will say I've been on the record as saying one of the bigger risks to Tesla was if the more affordable vehicle is too polarizing or too futuristic and now we've been told it will have a cyber truck futuristic feel.
Now yes this doesn't mean it has to have sharp angles and a planar polarizing design but clearly Elon wants it to be differentiated from any other car.
现在是的,这并不意味着它必须具有锐利的角度和平面偏振设计,但显然埃隆想让它与其他任何汽车有所区别。
If Tesla wants to sell millions of this car every year it's going to have to have mass market appeal. Buying a car is just a very personal choice.
I will say though if history is our guide they'll get it right, they understand the task at hand and Franz and Elon really don't miss.
不过,我要说,如果以历史为参考,他们会做对的,他们明白手头的任务,弗朗茨和埃隆基本不会失误。
Publicly we've heard Elon mention a $4 trillion valuation as the unspoken target for Tesla stock over the next 5-7 years but in this excerpt we learn that he has $10 trillion in mind once this next gen platform becomes a reality and is humming at scale.
Clearly the importance of these two vehicles cannot be overstated.
很明显,这两个载具的重要性不可低估。
So we still have a lot to learn and it should go without saying but this is some of the biggest and most exciting news we've heard all year.
我们还有很多东西要学习,这是一些我们今年听到的最重大和最令人兴奋的消息,无需多言。
The implications of the next gen platform are massive to the tune of trillions and it may be a lot closer than we were previously expecting.
下一代平台的影响之巨,可能高达数万亿,而且它可能比我们之前预计的时间要近得多。
And how about this one on the Tesla Motors Club forum we have a user posting some pictures saying the installer said this was only the third Powerwall 3 he's done so far. Then to confirm it, replying to Sawyer, Elon said Powerwall 3 is optimized for ease of installation and high power which means a single Powerwall can serve as an uninterruptable power supply or UPS people will call it for most homes. This is a big deal for ensuring that the lights stay on and you can power all of your devices in the event of a power outage.
So the Powerwall 3 is here. We don't have any update on pricing or any of that. I don't know if we're going to get a Powerwall 3 event but maybe they just start transitioning over in the background. And what I could find online it looks like you can vary the output power from 5.8 to 11.5 kilowatts based on the breaker and wiring sizes. The poster of this info did say the circuit breaker in the backup gateway 2 that was connected to the Powerwall 3 was 60 amps.
And it should be noted the higher output power will allow owners to use higher capacity things, think about AC, but then the variability could allow for more flexibility so as to not waste that extra power. The poster said the size is about 43 inches by 24 by 7 so it is slightly smaller than the previous version. It weighs 286 pounds which drops it in between the Powerwall plus at 344 pounds and the Powerwall 2 at 251 pounds. It appears to have the same 13.5 kilowatt hour capacity as the Powerwall 2 and Powerwall plus and many people out there are suggesting it uses LFP cells but personally I'm not ready by any stretch to say that that's official. The plate image we got just says lithium ion which could of course encompass LFP as well.
值得注意的是,更高的输出功率将使用户能够使用更高容量的设备,比如空调,但是可变性可以提供更灵活的选择,以免浪费那些额外的能源。海报中提到,尺寸约为43英寸 x 24 英寸 x 7 英寸,因此略小于先前版本。它的重量为286磅,介于Powerwall Plus(344磅)和Powerwall 2(251磅)之间。它的容量似乎与Powerwall 2和Powerwall Plus的13.5千瓦时相同,有很多人认为它使用了LFP电池,但我个人并不准备断言这是官方说法。我们获得的板子图片上只说是锂离子电池,当然也可能包括LFP电池。
So it sounds like the main differences in performance are the higher peak power output being potentially double that of the 5 kilowatts from the Powerwall 2 and the fact that Elon is claiming this is a UPS for most homes. On the older versions some people would still experience a quick switch over period meaning appliances and devices would go out temporarily which should not happen with the 3. And of course the install times should be much faster and the Powerwall 3 does contain the inverter. I wish I could give you guys more information on this right now but we're only working with a few pictures of one install so hopefully in the weeks ahead we get some more official info.
Don't quote me on this and things like this are always subject to change based on supply and demand but there are some people online that are saying you can buy the Powerwall 3 stand alone meaning you can buy it without getting solar to go with it. I'd also add there's still a good chance some new Powerwall customers are getting the Powerwall plus. It's still on the website they're still offering $500 rebates for each new Powerwall so maybe these Powerwall 3 installations of which there have been 3 are more in a test employee people Elon knows type of capacity. On Tesla's website they still only have Powerwall plus and Powerwall and for the regular Powerwall or Powerwall 2 they still have the 5.8 kilowatts of continuous power.
And correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure that KVA for all intents and purposes is the same as kilowatts. We got the domestic China sales figure for August 64,694. Plugging that data in turns out this is the best second month for domestic China sales of the quarter ever. Now let's not get too crazy because of course part of that is due to the lower export number for this month relative to prior months for the second month in a quarter. And we should get the official production number soon which will be interesting to see what's going on with the Model 3.
You may have heard about some of the changes in.32.1 like police vehicles display. Well shout out to Marcel because we got just that. What do we have here? Keep in mind with V12 the importance of the UI will be much less because Elon said it's essentially going to be more of an approximation of what the car is actually thinking than exactly what it's thinking. Either way though it's still cool to see the progress.
Tesla may have made a change to their planned presence at the Detroit Auto Show coming up September 13th. As you can see in the section 4 corporate region supported vehicle displays Tesla which was on the list earlier this week is now nowhere to be found. Show officials are reporting there will be a few surprises added to the list. However if you scroll down it still says Tesla will offer EV experience indoor track ride alongs and street course ride and drives. Just like Tesla will be there in some capacity maybe just without an official display.
The UK has just opened its largest public EV charging hub with 30 ultra fast 150 kilowatt bays and 150 not so fast 7 kilowatt charging points. Meaning 180 EVs can charge simultaneously. Good to hear it's powered by renewables including a rooftop solar canopy at the site. This is a joint venture between BP pulse and the NEC group.
Lotus just revealed the 2024 EMEA electric hypercar going 0-60 in under 3 seconds. This car is supposed to go into production in early 2024 and it's supposed to compete with cars like the Audi E-Tron GT and the Porsche Ticon. Lotus really didn't give us any specs but they did say it should be broadly similar to Lotus's first EV the Eletra which got around 310 miles of EPA range. More information set to come in the fourth quarter of this year. Lotus did however say it can accept up to 350 kilowatt charging speeds.
You know that theme I've been harping on all year Chinese automakers invading the European market? Well twice as many Chinese car makers were at exhibits at the Munich Auto Show this year compared to 2021 occupying almost two thirds of the floor space.
Thomas Ingenloth said it's always a big threat when other people catch up. Other countries have found an edge to technology which legacy car makers might have ignored for too long. The question is always how fast can you react? This is the type of response you love to hear not like what we talked about from VW yesterday. An operations chief at Stellantis said we have to fight. We must be very careful because when you have a new technology somebody who has already invested for some time in this technology there's probably a lack of competitiveness. That's dangerous and we have to fight and make sure that we are coming back to a competitive situation.
Thomas Ingenloth表示,当其他人追赶上来时,这总是一个巨大的威胁。其他国家已经找到了传统汽车制造商可能长期忽视的技术优势。问题始终是你能多快做出反应?这是你希望听到的回应类型,不像昨天我们从大众汽车讨论的那样。Stellantis的一位运营负责人表示我们必须奋战。我们必须非常小心,因为当你拥有一项新技术时,那些已经投资了一段时间的人可能缺乏竞争力。这是危险的,我们必须奋战并确保我们回到一个竞争的局面。
Ingenloth said I'm not so much afraid of the price position speaking of the Chinese. I'm much more afraid of the kind of technology they bring whether they're somewhere ahead of us that is unreachable. That would be frightening. Either way this will be a very fun battle to watch in the years ahead.
The Stellantis technology chief just said EV batteries were just too heavy making vehicles not compatible with sustainability purposes. So what I have in mind and a very hard goal for my team by 2030 is to change the battery weight to at least 50% lighter battery. Even more encouraging he said however he really had no idea what the battery of the future will look like. We'll have to think about completely new materials, new chemistry, a new way of replacing this heavy heavy heavy materials to something much lighter. I hate to sound like a broken record but are they not seeing Tesla doing just fine with the current heavy batteries?
From cars direct and a bulletin sent to dealers Ford is set to bring Apple Maps EV routing to the F-150 Lightning EVs before the end of this year. The Maki has had this feature and now the F-150 Lightning will join in Q4. This means Ford will have two of the three vehicles that currently are using Apple Maps EV routing, the third being the Porsche Ticon.
Rivians finance chiefs said they will benefit late this year and in 2024 from a significant deflation for battery material prices, a theme we've touched on all week. She said falling commodity prices will likely be felt in the fourth quarter of the year and into next year.
This should sound familiar because we touched on earlier this year that Tesla would be involved for the first time and the North American Council for freight efficiency is running its run on less electric depot. This virtual showcase will track information on charging infrastructure, cost of ownership, truck performance, charge management and other metrics for three weeks. We talked about the importance of this event earlier this year and yes most likely all eyes will be on Tesla as the newcomer to the event and PepsiCo's Tesla fleet will make up one of 10 fleets participating in the event which is focused on sharing information about scaling EV fleets at depots.
From September 11th through the 30th a virtual dashboard will monitor 21 trucks installed with tracking equipment that will show miles driven types of deliveries made and their states of charge at different points throughout the day. The executive director of this event said a lot of people will be watching that Tesla send my not by the day maybe by the hour. Are they getting the 400 to 500 miles that Elon said. The time has come for Tesla to show the heavy trucking industry what they're all about.
Hope you guys have a wonderful and a safe weekend. You can find me on X linked below. Please like the video if you did and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters.