Markets Weekly August 19
发布时间 2023-08-19 19:59:54 来源
Hello my friends, today is August 19th. My name is Joseph and this is Markets Weekly. This week we're going to talk about two things but we're going to go a little bit more in depth. First, we have to talk about what's happening in China. China is one of the largest economies in the world and there are some pretty concerning things that are happening there and what's happening in China is likely going to reverberate globally and impact financial markets in the US. So we have to find out what's going on there.
大家好，今天是8月19日。我叫约瑟夫，这是本周市场周报。本周我们将谈论两个重要的话题，并且会更加深入地探讨。首先，我们必须讨论中国正在发生的事情。中国是世界上最大的经济体之一，目前发生的一些事情相当令人担忧，并且中国的情况很可能会对全球产生影响，并对美国的金融市场产生冲击。因此，我们必须了解正在发生的情况。
Secondly, we have to talk about the big news in markets this past week and that is the US 10 year yield rising to 15 year highs. We've been talking about this for some time. We told you this is going to happen and now we're going to talk about the drivers and what that means for markets going forward.
其次，我们要谈谈上周市场上的重大消息，即美国10年期收益率上升至15年高点。我们已经讨论了这个问题一段时间了。我们告诉过你这将会发生，现在我们要讨论推动因素以及对未来市场的影响。
Okay, starting with China. So the way that I look at this at the end of the day, what's happening in China is that there was a tremendous, tremendous property boom that is in the process of deflating. Now this is something that we actually see happen over and over again in many countries and throughout history. Now it happened in the US in 2006 and 2007. We had a huge boom in real estate. We had cab drivers, we had waitresses, we had hair stylists, everyone owning three, four properties and becoming really rich. And then for seemingly no reason, suddenly the property prices began to decline and then everyone went bust all that money disappeared and we were in a very deep recession.
好的，先从中国说起。我个人看待这个问题的方式是，中国正在经历着一个巨大的房地产繁荣期的空前退缩。这其实是历史上许多国家屡见不鲜的现象。2006年和2007年美国也曾经历过类似情况。当时房地产市场出现了一次巨大的繁荣期，出租车司机、侍应生、发型师，每个人都拥有三四处房产，变得非常富有。然而，突然间房价开始下跌，看似无因的情况下，所有人都一夜之间破产了，那些钱都消失了，我们陷入了一次非常严重的经济衰退。
This happened in Japan in the 1980s. In Japan in the 1980s, there was a tremendous, tremendous, tremendous property boom such that reports were the land beneath Imperial Palace in Tokyo was actually worth more than the entire state of California. So Japanese were feeling rich. They were taking their money, they were coming out to the US buying large prestige properties and it seems like it seemed like they were taking over the world. And then suddenly one day the property market deflated and Japan was caught in a deflationary spiral for a few decades actually. So and of course this also happened in Southeast Asia where countries like Thailand also experienced huge booms and buses during the East Asian financial crises in the 1990s.
这件事发生在1980年代的日本。在那个时候，日本经历了一场巨大的房地产繁荣，有报道称东京皇宫下的土地价值甚至超过了整个加利福尼亚州。因此，日本人感觉自己变得富有起来。他们把自己的钱投资到美国购买豪华物业，似乎他们正在接管世界。然而，突然有一天，房地产市场崩溃了，日本陷入了数十年的通缩螺旋。当然，这种情况也发生在东南亚，像泰国这样的国家在1990年代的东亚金融危机中也经历了巨大的繁荣和崩溃。
So this is something that is totally, totally normal and many were expecting it. However, the timing is always very tricky. But it seems to be happening now in China. So after a very, very long run of rising property prices, it seems like property prices in China are declining and in some parts very quickly. It's not easy to get very accurate data on this, but a lot of private surveys have shown that from peak to today, property prices in many cities in China have declined significantly, let's say 20%. Now this has big knock on effects because property is such an important and widely held asset class in China.
所以这是一件完全正常的事情，许多人都预料到了。然而，时机总是非常棘手的。但似乎现在在中国正在发生这种情况。所以，在长期不断上涨的房地产价格之后，中国的房地产价格似乎正在下降，某些地区甚至下降得很快。这对我们而言并不容易获取非常准确的数据，但大量的私人调查显示，从最高点到现在，在中国的许多城市的房地产价格已经显着下降，比如说20%。现在这对我们有着重要的影响，因为房地产是中国非常重要且广泛持有的资产类别。
Now, culturally speaking, Chinese people really like real estate. It's a big part of what's considered a good asset. Like in the US, people really like the soft market in Canada, they really like real estate in China, they really like real estate as well. And so everyone wants to buy real estate and people who bought real estate over the past few decades did really well. So what's happening is that everyone is exposed to this asset class and that asset class is declining. So let's think a bit about the linkages of how that reverberates in the Chinese economy.
从文化上来说，中国人真的很喜欢房地产。它被视为一种很好的资产。就像在美国，人们非常喜欢加拿大房地产市场，他们在中国也非常喜欢房地产。所以每个人都想购买房地产，而在过去几十年购买房地产的人都做得非常好。现在发生的情况是，每个人都暴露在这种资产类别中，而这种资产类别正在下降。因此，让我们稍微思考一下这对中国经济的影响连锁反应。
First, of course, let's go directly to the property developers. If you are a property developer, you run the business of borrowing a whole bunch of money and then building a house or apartment building or something like that, selling it for a higher price and then taking the proceeds of that sale and repaying your debt. Now, there's a timing difference between this. You borrow money, it takes time to build your real estate project and it takes time to sell it, and then get the proceeds and repay your debt. Now, property developers borrowed a whole bunch of money, began real estate projects and now during the time of their construction, the market shifted and so now they're not able to sell the real estate or not able to get the prices they anticipated. So they are in big trouble and we hear some of the big ones are defaulting.
首先，当然，让我们直接去找房地产开发商。如果你是一名房地产开发商，你从事的是借钱、建房子或公寓楼等等的业务，以更高的价格出售然后用销售收入还清贷款。现在，这其中存在时间差。你借钱，需要时间来建设房地产项目，还需要时间来销售，然后获取收入并还清债务。现在，房地产开发商借了一大笔钱，开始了房地产项目，但是在工程建设期间，市场发生了变化，现在他们无法出售房地产，或者无法以他们预期的价格出售。所以他们面临巨大的麻烦，我们听说其中一些大开发商已经违约。
Connected with that, of course, is that if you're building a lot of real estate, you need a lot of commodities. So one of the fallouts from this deflationary event in China is that you can see the stock of major miners in the world have been declining a lot. China is the largest consumer of iron ore in a number of other commodities. If their big construction sector is not building as much as it used to, and there's less than amount of commodities, then commodity prices decline, the stocks of these miners fall and that also, of course, is deflationary for globally as commodity prices fall. It's not the only thing that matters, but it does have an impact.
当然，与此相关的是，如果你在大量建房地产，那么你就需要大量的商品。因此，中国通缩事件的一个后果是，你可以看到世界主要矿业公司的库存一直在大幅下降。中国是许多其他商品的最大消费国。如果他们庞大的建筑行业不再像过去那样大规模建设，并且商品供应减少，那么商品价格会下降，这些矿业公司的股价也会下跌，而这当然也会对全球通缩产生影响，因为商品价格下降。这不是唯一重要的事情，但它确实有影响。
Another linkage would be to look at the local government sector in China. So the way local governments raise money in China is by many ways, but one of the big ways they raise revenue is by taking land that they have and selling it to a property developer.
另一个相关方面是关注中国的地方政府部门。中国地方政府筹集资金的方式有很多，但其中一种主要方式是通过将其拥有的土地出售给房地产开发商来增加收入。
Now, if property developers are going bust, obviously, they're not paying a lot of money for land to develop and then local governments have less revenue. So that means they're going to have to cut back on whatever they were doing, which of course, shows economic growth.
现在，如果房地产开发商破产，显然他们就无法支付大量的土地开发费用，这意味着当地政府收入减少。这就意味着他们将不得不缩减原本的投入，这当然会对经济增长产生影响。
And of course, more directly, you have a lot of people who bought property with mortgages now thinking that they would get rich. We've all heard of big apartment buildings in China that are basically vacant, entire cities are basically vacant that are basically real estate for the purposes of speculation.
当然，更直接地说，有很多人通过抵押贷款购买房产，现在认为自己会变富。我们都听说过中国有很多几乎空置的大型公寓楼，整个城市基本上是空置的，实际上这些都是为了投机而购置的房地产。
People were just holding on to that real estate thinking that price and scope would go higher and so they would they would become rich. Now, those people, they're all stuck with property that is worthless in their mortgage and that's going to crimp consumer sentiment.
人们只是抱着一种观念，认为房地产的价格和规模会继续上涨，从而希望自己能变得富有。而现在，这些人都陷在了一些毫无价值的贷款物业中，这将会削弱消费者的情绪。
Now, basically, all these people, they have to continue to pay their mortgages and they're stuck with an asset that seems to be declining every month. People in that situation are not going to feel positive about their future. They're not going to spend more money and they're definitely not going to make more investments.
现在，基本上所有这些人都必须继续支付他们的抵押贷款，而且他们手上的资产似乎每个月都在下跌。处于这种情况下的人们对自己的未来不会有积极的感受。他们不会花更多的钱，肯定也不会做更多的投资。
So that's something to keep in mind. And the last thing that I will talk about is that financially speaking, this is also going to spread throughout China's financial system is similar to how shadow banks and spread agency mortgage losses throughout the US's financial system.
所以这是一个需要记住的问题。我将要谈论的最后一件事是，从财政角度来看，这也将像影子银行一样在中国的金融系统中蔓延开来，就像代理机构抵押贷款亏损在美国金融系统中蔓延开来一样。
So, in the US, a lot of the mortgage loans were securitized and then sold throughout the world. And so the losses on the property sector through a securitization was able to be felt all the way to banks in Germany and in France.
因此，在美国，许多按揭贷款被证券化，然后在全球范围内出售。因此，通过证券化在房地产部门的损失能够一直传至德国和法国的银行。
Now, that's not the case in China, but there is something similar. And that is in China. There's a very large shadow banking sector where things like trust products and private wealth management products are able to spread losses in the property sector to a wise swath of the investing Chinese.
那在中国情况不太一样，但有类似的情况。在中国有一个非常庞大的影子银行业，其中包括信托产品和私人财富管理产品，能够将房地产行业的亏损传播到大部分中国投资者之间。
So, for example, if you are someone with money in China, maybe you don't want to leave your money in a bank. You could instead buy these investment products offered by these shadow banks that promise a high yield.
所以，举个例子，如果你是中国一个富有的人，也许你不愿将资金留在银行中。相反，你可以购买这些非正规金融机构提供的投资产品，它们承诺高收益。
The shadow banks then, it could be like something like a trust company, take the money and then invest it in a whole bunch of stuff among which are loaned to property developers or real estate related sectors. Now that the real estate sector is in trouble, a lot of these trust companies are not able to repay their retail investors. And so, they seem to be defaulting as well.
那么，所谓的影子银行有点像信托公司，它们接收资金并投资于各种项目，其中包括向房地产开发商借贷或与房地产相关的行业。现在房地产市场陷入困境，许多信托公司无法偿还零售投资者的款项。因此，它们似乎也开始违约了。
And so, that's a mechanism through which property, that's another mechanism through which property troubles spread to the wider Chinese financial system.
因此，这是一种机制，通过这种机制，房地产问题扩散到了更广泛的中国金融系统中。
So, all in all, we see the impacts of this on macroeconomic data. Now, if you look at the growth numbers in China, they've been slowing precipitously. Now, to be clear, part of that is also due to COVID related lockdowns. Again, China shut down their economy for longer and more stricter than anyone else in the world. And they seem to be having some trouble restarting it. But, of course, the property problem plays a role as well.
所以，总的来说，我们可以看到这对宏观经济数据产生的影响。现在，如果你看一下中国的增长数字，你会发现它们一直在急剧下降。当然，需要明确的是，其中一部分原因也是由于与COVID相关的封锁。中国关闭经济的时间比世界上任何其他国家都更长，且措施更加严格。看起来他们在重新启动经济方面遇到了一些困难。但当然，房地产问题也起到了一定的作用。
So, we've already talked about one linkage where this is affecting the world, and that is through commodity prices. Now, let's talk about another more salient part that people have been pointing their fingers to, and that is the Chinese R&B.
所以，我们已经谈论了一个这正在影响世界的连接，那就是商品价格。现在，让我们谈谈另一个更加显著的方面，人们一直在指责的是中国人民币。
Now, over the past few months, the Chinese R&B has been depreciating significantly against the dollar, you know, breaching 7.2. Now, the way that Chinese China manages its currency is that it's a, you know, it's a managed peg. So, every day, the Chinese government will announce where they want the peg to be, and they allow it to float a little bit with reference to it.
现在，过去几个月来，中国人民币对美元汇率大幅下跌，甚至突破了7.2的关口。中国管理货币的方式是一种管理型固定汇率制度。每天，中国政府都会公布他们希望人民币汇率与美元保持的水平，并允许根据情况进行小幅浮动。
So, the currency rate is in part determined by the government and in part determined by the market. Now, some people look at what's happening with the peg and suspect that there might be some outflow pressures to that. And there's a good reason why that would be. So, if you are the Chinese government and you're sitting back and you're seeing that your economy is slowing, the first thing you do is you want to do something to simulate it, right?
因此，货币汇率在一定程度上由政府决定，另一部分由市场决定。现在，有些人看到人民币汇率存在压力，怀疑可能存在外流压力。这是有道理的。所以，如果你是中国政府，你坐在那里看着经济放缓，首先你想做的就是采取一些刺激措施，对吧？
Just like the Fed would cut rates to stimulate growth in the U.S. And so, the People's Bank of China is cutting interest rates to try to stimulate what's happening there in China as well. And if interest rates in China are around 2% and interest rates abroad, say in the U.S. are above 5%, then obviously that's going to encourage a lot of people to move money out of China and into the U.S., especially since there's less forward exchange rate risk because of the managed peg.
就像美联储会降息以刺激美国经济增长一样，中国人民银行也正在降低利率，试图刺激中国的经济。如果中国的利率大约为2%，而海外（比如美国）的利率超过5%，显然这将鼓励很多人将资金从中国转移到美国，尤其是由于管理了汇率的监管机制，消除了部分的汇率风险。
Now, when everyone is taking their R&B and selling it to buy dollars, that has some outflow pressure. And so, understandably, the Chinese R&B would depreciate. But to be clear, that's also part of how China is stimulating their economy as well.
现在，当每个人都将自己的人民币换成美元时，这就会带来一定的资金外流压力。因此，可以理解的是，中国的人民币会贬值。但需要明确的是，这也是中国刺激经济的一部分方式。
When their currency depreciates, their exporters become more profitable. And in theory, that's more positive for their economy.
当他们的货币贬值时，他们的出口商会变得更有利可图。从理论上讲，这对他们的经济来说更为积极。
Now, when the Chinese government is trying to defend their currency or manage it, they have to, let's say there's tremendous depreciation pressure against the Chinese R&B. Everyone is selling the currency and trying to buy dollars. Now, in order to maintain their peg, the Chinese government has to be able to take the opposite side of that trade. So, they have to take their vast amounts of foreign currency reserves, spend a little bit of dollars and buy back R&B. And that's how they maintain the peg.
现在，当中国政府试图维护或管理他们的货币时，让我们假设对中国人民币存在巨大贬值压力。每个人都在卖出货币，试图购买美元。为了维持他们的汇率锚定，中国政府必须能够扮演相反的交易一方。因此，他们必须动用他们庞大的外汇储备，花费一些美元来购买人民币。这就是他们如何维持汇率锚定的方式。
They have tremendous amounts of dollars in order to protect the peg. So, another way that this could potentially have some market implications is that as the Chinese currency depreciates, as the Chinese government is trying to maintain their currency from depreciating in a disorderly way, maybe it has to tap into their foreign reserves. Now, foreign reserves are often held in the form of treasury securities. And so, in theory, they could have to sell some treasury securities to get dollars to support their currency. That could potentially be a higher yield pressure for higher yields.
他们拥有大量美元来保护汇率。所以，这可能对市场产生一定影响的另一种方式是，随着中国货币贬值，中国政府试图避免其货币无序贬值，可能不得不动用外汇储备。外汇储备通常以国债的形式持有。理论上，他们可能不得不出售一些国债以获取美元来支持货币。这可能会对高收益造成一定压力。
Now, I don't think this is actually going to be very meaningful because if you're a country like China, you have a lot of dollar liquidity held in short data treasuries like bills or maybe in the ethics swap and something like that. So, it's probably not going to be selling longer data treasuries. In fact, it's very unlikely that's the case. So, I don't think it's going to be meaningful, but it is something to think about.
我认为这实际上可能没有多大意义，因为如果一个像中国这样的国家，它持有很多以短期国债（如票据）或可能是伦敦银行间同业拆借市场（市场上）的美元流动性，所以它可能不太可能出售更长期的国债。实际上，这种情况是非常不可能的。因此，我认为这可能没有多大意义，但是这是值得考虑的一点。
And the last thing that I'll talk about where it could be some kind of financial linkages is many people are talking about the prospect of perhaps a beam and like event in China. Now, to be totally clear, I think that is really, really unlikely and fundamentally misunderstands how the Chinese economy works.
我要谈论的最后一件事就是可能存在某种金融联系的地方，很多人正在讨论中国可能发生贝姆事件的前景。现在，完全明确地说，我认为这种可能性非常小，并且根本误解了中国经济的运作方式。
Now, in the US, we could have a Lehman like event because at the end of the day, someone who, a Lehman like event basically happens when someone is unable to repay their debts and therefore they have to fire sell their assets. And that happened across many actors during the financial crises. But that's really not going to happen in China because in China, the government basically controls all the actors. One of the, I think, the best China watchers is Leland Miller of China Beach Book and Haney makes the same point.
现在在美国，我们可能会遭遇类似雷曼事件的情况，因为归根结底，当某个人无力偿还债务，从而不得不抛售资产时，类似雷曼事件就会发生。这在金融危机期间发生在许多机构身上。但在中国，这种情况基本上不会发生，因为中国政府基本上掌控着所有机构。其中我认为最好的中国观察者之一就是《中国浩瀚》一书的莱兰德·米勒，他和汉尼也提到了这一点。
In China, the government controls all the banks. So, in the case that there is a potential for Lehman like moment, what would happen would be the Chinese government would basically force the banks to make loans and keep anyone from defaulting in a disorderly way unless the government wants it to. So, these systemic events are just really unlikely.
在中国，政府控制着所有银行。因此，在可能发生雷曼兄弟式的事件情况下，发生的情况将是中国政府基本上会强制银行发放贷款，并防止出现无序违约，除非政府希望出现这种情况。因此，这些系统性事件真的是高度不可能发生的。
And then just to further illustrate how the Chinese government is different from many other governments. When you have big sell-offs in China, what does the government do? I think the government goes for a hunt and they tell everyone, hey, you don't sell sock, you understand? So, the markets are very managed. And it's like that in many ways. The Chinese government has a lot of levers they can pull to prevent any disorderly collapse. So, that's really off the table.
然后，只是为了进一步说明中国政府与许多其他政府的不同之处。当中国发生大规模抛售时，政府会采取什么措施呢？我认为政府会出手追捕，并告诉所有人：“嘿，你们不能卖股票，明白吗？”因此，市场是非常受约束的。在很多方面都是如此。中国政府可以运用很多手段来防止任何无序崩盘的发生。所以，这种情况是真的不存在的。
What's really much more likely is you just have slower growth and the government does incrementally more to just seem like the economy. Many people have been expecting large stimulus packages from the Chinese government that really hasn't happened. It seems like the Chinese government really is sticking to their pledge to try to transition their country to a less, I guess, property driven or development driven economy to one that's more potentially consumer driven.
实际上更有可能的是，你的经济增长只是较慢，而政府只是做出了一些表面上看起来像是在推动经济的举措。很多人一直期待中国政府出台大规模的刺激措施，但实际上并没有发生。似乎中国政府真的坚持着他们的承诺，试图将他们的国家从一个主要依赖房地产或开发的经济转变为更加消费驱动的经济。
And that transition is going to be, I think, volatile. It's going to mean slower growth, but it doesn't necessarily mean disaster. So far, everyone who's been anticipating large China stimulus has been disappointed. And it looks like it's going to continue that way. So, just to summarize, there are some macroeconomic linkages. You can have lower commodity prices maybe on the margin, higher treasury yields, of course. But in my view, it is not any huge, huge downside tail risk here, just slower economic growth. But we'll see as time unfolds.
我认为这个转变可能会非常不稳定。这意味着经济增长会减缓，但不一定意味着灾难。到目前为止，一直有人预期中国会有大规模的刺激措施，但他们都失望了。而且看起来情况会继续这样下去。所以，简单来说，有一些宏观经济的联系。这可能导致商品价格下降，当然也会提高国债收益率。但在我看来，并没有什么巨大的下行风险，只是经济增长放缓而已。但随着时间的推移，我们会看到实际情况如何发展。
Okay, the next thing that we want to talk about is what's happening in the treasury market. So, the treasury market super, super exciting this past week. We got the 10-year yield soaring to 15-year highs.
好的，接下来我们想要谈论的是国债市场上正在发生的事情。所以，上周国债市场非常非常令人兴奋。我们看到10年期的收益率飙升至近15年的高点。
Now, we've been talking about this for months. Trudy yields, in my perspective, there's no way that they go anything but higher over the next several years. At the end of the day, asset prices are just supply and demand. And what you're seeing in the US government is just unbelievably high supply, deficit spending that is off the charts.
现在，我们已经讨论了好几个月了。据我看来，特鲁迪让步，他们在接下来的几年里除了更高，别无他途。归根结底，资产价格只是供需关系。而你在美国政府看到的，就是难以置信的高供应量，离谱的赤字支出。
Now, we have an economy that is honestly really strong. GDP can heaps to grow above trend, and it appears to be accelerating. Most recently, the Atlanta GDP now, which is a GDP now cast that will be very volatile and be revised, but is at the moment showing GDP growth at 5.8%, which is bocals. And part of that is because we have significant deficit spending, which even despite strong economic growth, it seems to be about 6%, 7%. So, as that continues, we're going to have a massive amounts of treasury issuance.
现在，我们的经济实际上非常强劲。国内生产总值可以远远超过趋势增长，并且似乎正在加速增长。最近，亚特兰大GDP现在显示GDP增长为5.8%，这是一个很大的数字，尽管这个数据在未来可能会有很大波动并进行修正。这其中的一部分原因是我们存在着巨额赤字支出，即使在经济增长强劲的情况下，这个赤字支出似乎也稳定在6%至7%左右。所以，随着这种状况持续下去，我们将会有大量的国债发行。
Supply and demand, who's going to be buying all that and at what price? Now, to be clear, ultimately, it will get bought. It's just that who buys it. In the past, we have the commercial banks buying it because, well, they were flush with cash and they had nothing else to do, and the government had all these regulations that basically strongly encouraged them to. They've been reducing their treasury holdings. The Fed was buying. Of course, they're doing QT. The foreign central banks, they actually haven't really been buying for some time, but they might be selling as countries like Japan and China as well might have to reduce their holdings a bit to get dollars to show up their currency.
供求关系，谁会购买这些东西，以及以什么价格？现在，明确一点，最终这些东西会被买走。只是买家是谁的问题。过去，商业银行购买了这些，因为他们有充足的现金，而且没有其他事情可做，并且政府有一些法规明确鼓励他们购买。他们一直在减少他们的国债持有量。美联储在购买。当然，现在他们进行缩表操作。外国央行实际上已经有一段时间没有购买了，但是像日本和中国这样的国家可能会稍微减少它们的持有量，以获取美元来支撑本国货币。
So, the marginal buyer over the past several months, as I've written about, has really been the asset management community. The asset management community was basically all in on-team recession. They were like, oh my god, we have a recession. So, what do we do? Well, if it's going to cut rates, so we got to buy lots of treasury bonds. We got to buy tech because that's what the world worked the past 10 years, and they were totally, totally wrong. U.S. economy is doing very well and growth is very strong. And so now, they seem to be a bit wrong-footed. What are they going to do now? They're obviously not going to be buying treasury securities at the prices they were buying before, because the world doesn't look as gloomy as it did before.
因此，过去几个月来，正如我之前所写的，边际买家实际上是资产管理界。资产管理界基本上全都认定经济将进入衰退。他们像是说，噢天啊，我们要衰退了。那我们该怎么办呢？嗯，如果要降息，我们就得大量购买国债。我们得购买科技股，因为这是过去10年世界运行的方式。但他们完全完全错误了。美国经济发展非常好，增长非常强劲。所以现在，他们似乎有些陷入困境了。他们现在要怎么办呢？显然，他们不会像之前那样以相同价格购买国债，因为世界看起来不像之前那样阴暗了。
And so, I think right now, you're having the marginal buyer of securities, basically having some hesitation as to what price they're willing to pay for it. And if the continuous economy continues to surprise to the upside, I think that you can have treasury yields go towards 4.5% by the end of this year. And I think that's going to be a very much a headwind for risk assets.
因此，我认为现在你们正在面对证券的边际买家，他们对于愿意支付的价格有些犹豫。如果经济继续向好的方向出现意外，我认为到今年年底，国债收益率可能会上升至4.5%。我认为这将对风险资产构成相当大的阻力。
Now, we've seen a higher treasury yields already put a dent on a lot of the equity markets this past week. But from my perspective, it really hasn't been as bad as I thought it could be. In fact, I think equities are taking it pretty well. And perhaps, this is just a brief correction until we resume higher. To be clear, as long as yields go higher, it's going to cap the potential of the equity markets. But it doesn't mean that there's going to be any sort of collapse.
现在，我们已经看到了较高的国债收益率已经对许多股票市场造成了冲击。但从我的角度来看，情况没有像我想象的那么糟糕。事实上，我认为股票市场承受得还不错。或许，这只是一个短暂的调整，然后我们会继续上涨。明确地说，只要收益率上升，就会限制股票市场的潜力。但这并不意味着会发生任何崩盘。
Now, if you are a professional investor, you're also going to be looking at treasury yields, not just in nominal terms, but in real terms as well. So you see yields go higher. You want to know if it's real yields or if it's nominal yields. So, what's been happening over the past week is that these moves higher have been led by real yields. And if it's led by real yields, then you can think of it as having some bigger implications on the real economy, because in real terms, interest rate costs are going higher. And that could mean a bigger slowing of impact on the real economy.
现在，如果你是一名专业投资者，你不仅会关注国债收益率的名义值，还会关注实际值。因此，当你看到收益率上升时，你想知道是实际收益率上升还是名义收益率上升。在过去的一周里，实际收益率的上升推动了收益率的上升。如果是由实际收益率推动的，那么可以认为对实际经济有一些更大的影响，因为从实际角度来看，利率成本正在上升。这可能意味着对实际经济的影响会更大。
So, even though the Fed has hiked rates over the past several months, the real rates haven't really changed that much over the past several months. So, in my perspective, it really hasn't had a big impact on the real economy. Real rates have basically seen around here for the past several months. But now they're moving higher. And if they continue to do that, then I think that we could eventually see a material slowing of the US economy in the future, not this year, but probably sometime next year. And of course, you could see this is that headwind for financial assets and a tailwind for the US dollar.
因此，尽管美联储在过去几个月内加息了，但实际利率在过去几个月内并没有发生太大变化。在我看来，这对实际经济影响并不大。实际利率在过去几个月基本保持在这个水平。但现在它们正在上升。如果它们持续上升，那么我认为我们可能会在未来看到美国经济出现实质性放缓，不是今年，而可能是明年的某个时候。当然，这可能对金融资产构成不利因素，同时对美元产生有利作用。
We see some dollar strength a little bit this week. If we have yields continue to march higher, I expect the dollar to continue to strengthen, especially since the day that we're getting from a country like the Eurozone have not been positive. They've been really good in Japan, but the Eurozone is a major other major currency pair in the world. And it seems like they're not doing as well.
本周我们看到美元稍微有所上涨。如果收益率继续上升，我预计美元将继续走强，尤其是因为来自欧元区等国家的数据并不乐观。虽然日本的表现非常好，但欧元区是世界上另一个重要的货币对。而且看起来它们的经济表现不如人意。
So, that's why I prepared for this week. And if you like what I'm producing, remember to like and subscribe. Welcome to leave a comment as to what you like me to talk about. And also, if you're interested in hearing my latest thoughts, please check out my blog at FidGai.com.
所以，这就是为什么我准备了这个星期。如果你喜欢我制作的内容，请记得点赞和订阅。欢迎留言告诉我你想我谈论什么。另外，如果你对听取我最新的想法感兴趣，请在FidGai.com上查看我的博客。
And if you're interested in learning more about financial markets, check out my online courses at centralbanking101.com. Thanks, everyone, and talk to you all next week.
如果您对学习更多关于金融市场感兴趣的话，可以查看一下我在centralbanking101.com上的在线课程。谢谢大家，我们下周再聊。