Good morning. Thank you everyone for joining our call today where our CEO, Charlie Sharp, and our CFO Mike Santa-Mecimo will discuss second quarter results and answer your questions.
This call is being recorded. Before we get started, I would like to remind you that our second quarter earnings materials, including the release, financial supplement, and presentation deck, are available on our website at wellsphargo.com.
I'd also like to caution you that we may make forward-looking statements during today's call that are subject to risk and uncertainties. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are details in our SEC filings, including the form 8K files today containing our earnings materials.
Information about any non-GAP financial measures reference, including a reconciliation of those measures to GAP measures, can also be found in our SEC filings and the earnings materials available on our website.
I will now turn the call over to Charlie. Thank you, John.
我现在将把通话转交给查理。谢谢你,约翰。
Good morning, everyone. As usual, I'll make some brief comments about our second quarter results and then update you on our priorities. I'll then turn the call over to Mike to review second quarter results in more detail before we take your questions.
Let me start with some second quarter highlights. We had solid results in the quarter with revenue, free tax, pre-provision profit, diluted earnings per share, and ROTCE all higher than a year ago. The revenue growth reflected strong net interest income growth, as well as higher non-interest income.
While our efficiency ratio improved and we continued to make progress on our efficiency initiatives, we had modest expense growth from a year ago. The charge-offs have continued to increase from historical low levels, but overall credit quality was strong and consumer and business balance sheets remain healthy.
We increased our allowance for credit losses by $949 million, primarily driven by our office portfolio, as well as growth in our credit card portfolio. While we haven't seen significant losses in our office portfolio today, our detailed loan-by- loan review of the portfolio has given us a sense how the next several quarters could play out. We also considered a number of stressed scenarios, all of which inform our actions this quarter.
Mike will discuss this in more detail, but I want to make the point that it is very hard to look at any one statistic and determine the risk in the portfolio. Loss content will be driven by a combination of factors, including but not limited to property type, location, lease rates, lease renewal notice dates, loan structure, and borrower behavior. Most importantly, our CRE teams remain focused on working with our clients for folios, surveillance, and de-risking to minimize loss content.
Both commercial and consumer average loans were up from a year ago, but were down from the first quarter as the economy has slowed and we've taken some credit-typing actions. Credit card spending remains strong, but the rate of growth has slowed from the outsized growth rates we saw throughout 2022. Debit card spending was flat from a year ago, with growth in discretionary spend offset by the clients in non-discretionary spend.
Average deposits were down from the first quarter driven by lower consumer deposits, while the decline in commercial deposits slowed.
平均存款在第一季度下降,主要是由于个人存款减少,而商业存款的下降幅度有所减缓。
Now let me update you on progress we made on our sufficient priorities, starting with our risk and control work. Regulatory pressure on banks with long-standing issues such as ours continues to grow, and assets are continued intensive effort to complete the build-out of an appropriate risk and control framework for company of our size and complexity in spread.
I've continued to emphasize that this is our top priority and will remain so, and that while we have implemented substantial portions of the work required, we have more implementation to do as well as work to make sure the changes operate effectively over time. As I said before, we remain at risk further regulatory actions until the work is complete.
While we're devoting all necessary resources to our risk and control work, we're also continuing to invest in our business to better serve our customers and health drive growth. Our consumer customers have continued to increase their use of our mobile app. We added over 1 million mobile active customers over the past year, and mobile logins increased 9% from a year ago.
Fargo, our new AI-powered virtual assistant, was now live on our mobile app for all consumer customers. Since launching at the end of April, our customers have interacted with Fargo over 4 million times.
We've continued to make important hires, bringing new expertise to all Fargo in businesses we are looking to grow. We need Barry Simmons as the new head of national sales involved in investment management. It would be critical in our efforts to better serve clients and help advisors grow their business.
We also continue to attract veteran bankers in corporate and investment banking, hiring new managing directors in our banking division in priority growth areas, including a co-head of global emergency acquisitions, co-head of financial institutions, and new heads of financial sponsors, equity capital markets, health care and technology media and telecom.
We also continue to focus on better serving our communities. We announced a 10-year strategic partnership with TDJX Group that could result in up to $1 billion in capital and financing from Wells Fargo to drive economic vitality and inclusivity in communities across America. The Wells Fargo Foundation awarded $7.5 million to Habitat for Humanity to build and repair within 360 homes nationwide. We've worked with Habitat for Humanity for nearly three decades and donated more than $129 million since 2010. Wells Fargo signed on as the first anchor funder of Umido's U.S. home initiative to create four million new Latino homeowners by 2030. We provided the initial grant to start a fund launched by FinTech below Alice to improve access to credit and capital for small business owners who are members of underserved groups, including women.
We continued to open hope inside centers in Wells Fargo branches, including six during the first half of 2023. The plans to reach 20 markets by the end of this year. The centers helped empower community members to achieve their financial goals through financial education workshops and free one-on-one coaching.
We published our 2023 Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Report, which highlights the progress we've made in our DD&I strategy and initiatives, both inside our company and the communities where we live and work. However, we have more work to do to achieve enduring results that will require a long-term commitment.
Looking ahead, the U.S. economy continues to perform better than many expected, and although there will likely be continued economic slowing and uncertainty remains, it is quite possible the range of scenarios will narrow over the next few quarters. This year's Federal Reserve Stress Test affirmed that we remain in a strong capital position, reflecting the value of our franchise and benefits of our operating model. This capital strength allows us to serve our customers' financial needs while continuing to prudently return excess capital to our shareholders. As we previously announced, we expect to increase our third-quarter common stock dividend by 17% to 35 cents per share, subject to approval by the company's board of directors at its regularly scheduled meeting later this month. We've repurchased $8 billion of common stock during the first half of this year, and the stress test results demonstrated that we have the capacity to continue to repurchase common stock. Regulators have signaled that the Basel III end-game proposal, which could be out as soon as this summer, will include higher capital requirements that would be skewed to the country's largest banks. While there's speculation that capital requirements could increase by 20%, we don't know what the impact will be to well-flour go. However, we do expect our capital requirements will increase. While any changes to regulatory capital requirements are expected to be phased in gradually over several years, we are considering the potential impact in contemplating the amount of our future recursors.
Our balance sheet is strong. We have increased and remain focused on increasing our earnings capacity and continue to like our competitive position. We remain prepared for a variety of scenarios and our steadfast commitment to our risk and control build-out coupled with our continued focus on financial and credit risk management allows us to support our customers throughout economic cycles.
I will now turn the call over to Mike. Thank you, Charlie, and good morning, everyone. Net income for the second quarter was $4.9 billion for $1.25 per diluted common share, both up from a year ago reflecting the progress we are making and improving our performance, which I'll highlight throughout the call.
Starting with capital liquidity in slide three, our CET1 ratio was 10.7 percent down approximately 10 basis points from the first quarter. During the second quarter, we repurchased $4 billion in common stock and it's shortly highlighted subject to border provo. We expect to increase our common stock dividend in the third quarter. Our CET1 ratio was 1.5 percentage points above our current regulatory minimum plus buffers and was 1.8 percentage points above our expected new regulatory minimum plus buffers starting the fourth quarter of this year. While we expect to repurchase more common stock this year, we believe continuing to maintain significant asset capitals appropriate than told there was more clarity on the new capital requirements that Charlie highlighted. Our liquidity position remains strong in the second quarter with our liquidity coverage ratio approximately 23% percent points above the regulatory minimum.
Turning to credit quality in slide five, overall credit quality remains strong, but as expected net loan charge jobs continued to increase from the storeably low level and were 32 basis points of average loans in the second quarter. Commercial net loan charge jobs increased 137 million from the first quarter to 15 basis points of average loans. Approximately half of the increase was in commercial banking where the losses were far more specific with little signs of systematic weakness across the portfolio. The rest of the increase was driven by higher losses in commercial real estate primarily in the office portfolio. I'll share some more details on the CRE office exposure on the next slide.
Consumer net loan charge jobs increased modestly up 23 million from the first quarter to 58 basis points of average loans. The increase primarily came from the credit card portfolio as residential mortgage loans continue to have net recoveries and auto losses declined. While consumer credit performance remains solid overall and we've continued to take incremental credit tightening actions across the portfolios, we expect consumer net loan charge jobs will continue to gradually increase. Non-performing assets increased 14% from the first quarter as low or not a cruel loans across the consumer portfolios were more than offset by higher commercial amount of cruel loans primarily in the commercial real estate portfolio. Our allowance for credit losses increased 949 million in the second quarter primarily from four commercial real estate office loans as well as for higher credit card balances. We've updated slide six which highlights our commercial real estate portfolio.
We had 154.3 billion in commercial real estate loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter with 33.1 billion of office loans which were down modestly from the first quarter and represented 3% of our total loans outstanding. The office market continues to be weak and the composition of our office portfolio is relatively consistent with what we shared with you the first quarter. As Charlie mentioned our CRE teams are focused on surveillance and derisking which includes reducing exposures and closely monitoring at risk loans.
This quarter we added a table to this slide that breaks down our CRE office exposure from the context of our broader of CRE portfolio. As the slide shows our office loans at the end of the second quarter were primarily in corporate investment banking and that is also where we had the most not a cruel loans in the highest level of allowance for credit losses. Last quarter we disclosed the first time the allowance for credit losses coverage ratio for the office portfolio in the corporate investment bank which increased from 5.7% at the end of the first quarter to 8.8% at the end of the second quarter. This quarter we are also providing our allowance for credit losses for our total CRE office portfolio which was 6.6% at the end of the second quarter up from 4.4% at the end of the first quarter.
As we highlighted last quarter we're providing this data to give you more insight into the portfolio but each property situation is different and there are many variables that can determine performance which is why we regularly review this portfolio loan by loan basis. For example we have properties that are experiencing increased vacancies where borrowers have decided to inject equity and make investments to improve the property even in cities with more difficult fundamentals. We also have properties that are well-leaved in performing but borrowers need help refinancing. In those situations we are working with borrowers to restructure which in many cases includes some pay down of the balance. There are also situations that result in a sale or work out of the asset.
We will continue to closely monitor this portfolio but as has been the case in fire cycles this will likely play out over an extended period of time as we actively work with borrowers to help resolve issues that they may be facing. On 5.7 we highlight loans in the office. Average loans were relatively stable from the first quarter and we're up to 2% from a year ago driven by higher commercial and industrial loans in commercial banking and credit card loans. I'll highlight specific drivers when discussing our operating segment results. Average loan yields increased 247 basis points from a year ago and 30 basis points from the first quarter due to the higher interest rate environment. Average deposit declined 7% from a year ago predominantly driven by deposit outflows in our consumer wealth businesses reflecting continued consumer spending and customers reallocating cash into higher yielding alternatives. Down from a year ago average commercial deposits were relatively stable in the first quarter and average deposits grew in corporate and investment banking.
As expected our average deposit costs continue to increase up 30 basis points from the first quarter to 113 basis points with higher deposit costs across all operating segments in response to rising interest rates. Our mix of non-interest bearing deposits declined from 32% in the first quarter to 30% in the second quarter but remained above pre-pandemic levels. Turning to net interest income on slide 8. Second quarter net interest income was 13.2 billion up 29% from a year ago as we continued to benefit from the impact of higher rates. The $73 million decline from the first quarter was primarily due to lower deposit balances partially offset by one additional day in the quarter. At the beginning of the year we expected full year net interest income to grow by approximately 10% compared with 2022. We currently expect full year 2023 net interest income to increase approximately 14% compared to 2022. There are a variety of factors that we've considered in our expectation for the rest of the year. We are assuming modest growth in loans, some additional deposit outflows and migration from non-interest bearing to interest bearing deposits as well as continued deposit reprising including competitive pricing on commercial deposits. Additionally we are using the recent rate curve which is shown on the slide. As a reminder many of the factors driving net interest income are uncertain and we will need to see how each of these assumptions plays out during the remainder of the year.
Turning to expenses on slide 9. Non-interest expense grew 125 million or 1% from a year ago. At the beginning of the year we expected our full year 2023 non-interest expense excluding operating losses to be approximately 50.2 million. We currently expect our full year 2023 non-interest expense excluding operating losses to be approximately 51 billion. The increase includes higher percentage expense due to actions we have taken in the plan and plan to take in 2023 as attrition has been slower than expected. Of note we've reduced headcounties quarter since the third quarter of 2020 and headcount declined 1% from the birth quarter and 4% from a year ago. As a reminder we have outstanding litigation, regulatory and customer remediation matters that could impact operating losses.
Turning to our operating segment starting with consumer banking and lending on slide 10. Consumer and small business banking revenue increased 19% from a year ago as higher net interest income driven by the impact of higher interest rates was partially offset by lower deposit related fees driven by the overdraft policy changes we rolled out last year. We continue to reduce the underlying costs of our business as customers migrate to digital including mobile. We've reduced our number of branches by 4% and branched staffing by 10% from a year ago. Our lending revenue declined 13% from a year ago driven by lower net interest income due to loan spread compression and lower mortgage originations. We continue to reduce headcount in the second quarter down 37% from a year ago and we expect staffing levels will further decline during the second half of the year.
Credit card revenue increased 1% from a year ago due to the higher loan balances. Payment rates were down from a year ago but have been stable over the last three quarters and remained above pre-pandemic levels. New account growth remained strong up 17% from a year ago and importantly the quality of the new counts continued to be better than what we were booking historically. Auto revenue declined 13% from a year ago driven by continued loan spread compression and lower loan balances. Personal lending revenue was up 17% from a year ago due to higher loan balances.
Turning to some key business drivers on slide 11. Mortgage originations declined 77% from a year ago and increased 18% from the third quarter reflecting seasonality. We funded our last quarter loan in the second quarter with our current focus being serving our bank customers as well as borrowers in minority communities. The size of our auto portfolio has declined for five consecutive quarters and balances were down 7% at the end of the second quarter compared to a year ago. Origination declined to find 11% from a year ago reflecting credit tightening actions as well as continued price competition. As Charlie highlighted debit card spend the flat in the second quarter compared to a year ago spending a fuel to the lower gas prices home improvement and travel at the largest declines compared to last year. Credit card spending continued to be strong. It was up 13% from a year ago. Growth rates were stable throughout the second quarter with fuel the only category down year over year.
Turning to commercial banking results on slide 12. Middle market banking revenue increased 51% from a year ago due to the impact of higher interest rates in higher loan balances. Asset based lending and leasing revenue increased 13% year over year primarily due to higher loan balances. Average loan balances were up 12% in second quarter compared a year ago driven by new customer growth and higher line utilization. Average loan balances have grown for eight consecutive quarters that the pace of growth has slowed. Average loans were up 1% from the first quarter with loan growth in asset based lending and leasing driven by season that seasonally higher inventory levels while middle market banking loans were flat.
Turning to corporate investment banking on slide 13. Banking revenue increased 37% from a year ago due to a much stronger treasury management results reflecting the impact of higher interest rates and higher lending revenue. The growth in investment banking increased from a year ago reflected right down taken in the second quarter of 2022 on unfunded leverage finance commitments.
Commercial real estate revenue grew 26% from a year ago driven by the impact of higher interest rates and higher loan balances. Markets revenue increased 29% from a year ago driven by the higher trading results across most asset classes. Our strong trading results during the first half of the year were driven by underlying market conditions and also reflected the benefit of our investments in technology and talent which have allowed us to broaden our client franchise and generate more trading flows.
Average loans for down 2% from a year ago and 1% from the first quarter. The decline in the first quarter was driven by banking reflecting a combination of slow demand and modestly lower line utilization.
On slide 14 wealth and investment management revenue is down 2% compared to a year ago driven by decline and asset base fees due to lower market valuations. Broke in that interest income from a year ago was driven by the impact of higher rates partially offset by lower deposit balances as customers continue to reallocate cash in a higher yielding alternatives. However, outflows into cash alternatives slowed in the second quarter. As a reminder, the majority of the whim advisory assets are priced at the beginning of the quarter. So second quarter results reflected the market valuations as available first which were down from a year ago. Asset base fees in the third quarter will reflect higher market valuations as of July 1st. Average loans for down 3% from a year ago primarily due to decline in securities based lending.
Now slide 15 highlights our corporate results. Revenue increased $751 million from a year ago driven by the impact of higher interest rates and lower impairments of equity securities in our affiliated venture capital and private equity businesses.
In summary, our results in the second quarter reflect a continued improvement in our earnings capacity. We grew revenue and had strong growth in pre-tax provision profit and expected our net charge us to continue to slowly increase from store full lows in our allowance for credit losses increased. We are closely monitoring our portfolios and taking credit tightening actions where we believe appropriate. Our capital levels remain strong.
We continue to reverse, come and stop. We will now take your questions. Thank you.
我们继续逆转前进,停下来。现在我们将回答您的问题。谢谢。
We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 at this time. If at any time while waiting in queue, your question has been answered. You can remove your request by pressing star 2. Once again, that is star 1 for questions at this time. Please stand by for our first question.
Our first question will come from Ken Uzden of Jeffries. Your line is open, sir. Mr. Uzden, please check the mute button on your phone. Why don't we take another one and then we'll come back again.
Certainly. The next question will come from Scott Siefer. So Piper Sandler, your line is open. Morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the question. It was great to see the higher NII guide and the performance this quarter. That said, it seems likely that dollars of NII will come down from here. I guess just broadly speaking, are you able to chat about what factors might be most important in your ability to arrest a downward moving NII? In other words, when and why would it end up flattening out if we're ideally getting close to the end of a Fed-Tything cycle? Yeah, thanks, Scott. It's Mike. I'll take that entirely from jumping if you want. When you look at the assumptions that underpin that, and I highlighted some of this in my script, but I'll go back through them, we've got a little bit of modest loan growth in there. So that's not a big driver of what we're seeing. I think you're probably seeing that from others where we're just not seeing that same demand that we saw a year or so ago on loans. We're also assuming that we'll see some additional outflows, particularly in the consumer space as people continue to spend money. Then we'll see some more migration from non-interest bearing to interest bearing deposits. Then deposit pricing will, betas will evolve over time. I think it's still very competitive on the commercial side, and I think that'll continue on the consumer side that'll evolve. So I think you've got to look at those combination of factors and make some assumptions around when you think they start to stabilize. But I think we're assuming that those trends that we've been seeing now for the last couple quarters will continue, at least through the year end.
Okay. Perfect. Maybe if we could drill down into one of those in particular, just the migration from non-interest bearing to interest bearing. They've come down but are still above pre-pandemic levels, I believe. Do you have a sense for where and why those would start to settle out? Yeah. I mean, there's a few factors underneath that. As you pointed out, we're about 30% at the end of the quarter down from about 32, I think the prior quarter. If you go back pre-COVID, they were in the mid-20s, mid-to- upper-20s, depending on when, exactly when you look at it. And we've been trending downward. Part of that is excess deposits on the commercial side. It's people who use up their earnings credits for the fees they're paying. You're seeing some migration there. That stabilizes. And then you've seen, again, on the consumer side, people spending from their primary checking accounts. So those are the factors that I've looked at on when that starts to slow down and stabilize. But it's been pretty consistent, at least, for the last quarter or two. Yeah. Okay. All right. Thank you very much, Mike. Thank you.
The next question will come from Iperham Punawala of Bank of America. Your line is open, sir.
下一个问题将来自美国银行的Iperham Punawala。您可以开口发问了,先生。
Hey, good morning. So my thanks for the details on the CRE book. I think Charlie mentioned that you've gone through loan by loan and identifying. And I appreciate the due-syngretic nature of every sort of CRE loan. But given the reserve you've taken this quarter, give us a sense of your visibility around how well-deserved the bank is today, knowing what we know in terms of the macro outlook. And also, if you can comment on just the rest of the CRE book, particularly as it relates to San Francisco or California and your level of comfort around just apartments, etc., within that market. Thank you.
Yeah. Thanks. I'll take that, Mike. You know, broadly, I'll start with the next question. I'll start on the broader point on CRE and I'll come back to office. You know, I think though, you know, we've gone through the multifamily portfolio quite in quite a lot of detail. And I think, no, I'm talking about the broader portfolio first, right? And so you talked about apartments in some cities. And so I think when you look at, you know, the broader portfolio, including multifamily, it's all performing quite, you know, quite well. And I think, you know, you've seen certainly a slowing of growth rates in rents, but they're not declining in most cases. You're seeing good occupancy rates in many of the new construction that's coming online. And so overall, it feels quite constructive still for multifamily. And that same theme really applies to the rest of the portfolio. On office, you know, that's the place where, you know, we're certainly seeing weakness. And as you think about the allowance we put up, you know, we do have some, you know, very specific, you know, borrower loan level estimates of what we think could play out over the next quarter, next couple, next few quarters. And that's embedded in the allowance. And then as you look at the rest of the office portfolio, we've gone through a number of stress scenarios and feel like at this point we're appropriately reserved to be able to deal with what could be a number of different scenarios, depending on how it plays out over time.
Got it. And I guess this is a separate question means you obviously have ample capital. Just Charlie from your standpoint, how impactful is the asset cap today, given the squeeze on the rest of the industry, I would think Wells would actually be gaining market share, but is the asset cap and all the regular issues? I'm not going to ask you to give us a timeline, is that still a meaningful challenge in terms of your ability to take market share?
Well, I mean, you can look at the size of our balance sheet and, you know, see where it is relative to the asset cap, which is, you know, a trillion nine fifty two, I think is the asset cap. Yeah, that's the actual cap. Remember, which is a daily average over a couple of quarters. So relative to we're operating today, we feel like, you know, we still have plenty of balance sheet to serve our customers. And it's not standing in the way of that hasn't always been the case. But I think that's where we are today. But putting just, you know, the pure economics of the asset cap aside, it is, you know, something that, you know, when we look at, you know, the work we have to get done, the fact that it's there is a statement of the, you know, the reality that we still have more work to do. And so it's critical that we continue on our road to complete that work. And so that's the way we're thinking about it today.
And maybe I'll just add one thing. When you look at some of the, you know, growth opportunities we have, you know, Charlie highlighted some of the investment banking hires we're making. And, you know, in large part, we already have the exposure out to, you know, to the, you know, client base there. So now it's about making sure we got the right people to go after the fee opportunity, not necessarily extending a lot more balance sheet. Wealth management, you know, and the growth opportunity there, same theme. And even in the card space, as we look at, you know, the refreshed product lines doing really well, we've got more to come there. And I think we've got plenty of room to, you know, continue to support many of the growth opportunities we have, even if we didn't, you know, put out more, have more exposure to support it. Good color. Thank you. Thank you. The next question will come from Stephen Chewbik of Wolf Research. Your line is open for.
Good morning. Good morning. So I wanted to start off with a question just on the NII outlook, certainly encouraging to see the guidance increase. But you noted, Mike, that it does contemplate a modest level of loan growth and just parsing some of your other comments where you alluded to credit tightening, signs of slowdown in the broader economy. What gives you confidence around some inflection in lending activity, especially given the flattish loan growth that we've seen this quarter? Yeah. Well, you know, I think we're seeing, you know, we're certainly seeing growth in cards. So I think we would expect that to continue. You know, and then in the rest of the, you know, portfolios, you know, we see a little bit of growth in the asset-based lending and leasing, you know, business in the commercial bank, you know, motor markets kind of flat, at least this quarter. And then you can see the consumer items. So I think, you know, we're hopeful that we'll see some growth, you know, as we go in the second quarter. But as always, you know, Steve, what we try to do with guidance is give you guidance that, you know, it doesn't necessarily require every assumption to go in our favor. So the bigger drivers of uncertainty around, you know, NII for the rest of the year continue to be the same ones we've been talking about now for the last couple quarters. It's really going to be deposits and deposit pricing. You know, the loan story will matter, but not anywhere near to the same degree. No, it's helpful, Color.
And just follow up on expense. You cited the headcount reductions and higher severance costs driving some upward pressure this year. But just wanted to better understand how we should be thinking about the exit rate on expense. Once the headcount actions that you cited are fully captured in the run rate. And whether there's any plans, maybe redeploy some of the NII windfall to reinvest back in the business as we think about some of the potential benefits and the higher NII guidance you cited. Yeah, you know, I think our focus on expenses really hasn't changed, you know, over the last, you know, quarter to, you know, as we've talked about now for a while, you know, we're going to continue to be very disciplined around the expense base.
I think we're very much focused on making sure we execute and achieve the efficiencies that we've talked about. And as we get to year end, we'll sort of look at, you know, after we do our work around the budget for next year, we'll go back through, you know, all the ups and downs like we normally do and give you some perspective there. But really the thinking around it hasn't changed.
And let me just add, it's okay. You know, I think when we laid out our expense guidance, we got a series of questions about, you know, how we think of, you know, the variability of that number and the, you know, the environment and the rest of our results impact that number. And I think, you know, as we look at how we're performing, I think we, you know, it wouldn't be hard for us to make a bunch of decisions to hit an expense number. But to the point is, we, you know, our results have been relatively strong. And so we are doing a series of things. You know, I don't think about it as one time expenses, but we have, you know, there is a fair amount of subjective expenses that relate to business development, product enhancements and things like that, that we do have the ability to, you know, each year, each quarter, look at how we're performing and decide how much we want to spend.
And so, you know, as we look forward, you know, I think we're going to wait and see as we go through our budgeting process and we do a series of scenarios in terms of how things could play out next year and then make that determination. But as Mike said, I think, you know, we do separate out the fact that, you know, we continue to believe that there are, you know, continued opportunities to drive efficiency throughout the company. We're not going to lose sight of that. And that is separate from how much do we want to spend away from that. And we'll talk more about that towards the end of the year. I hope we'll call her.
Thanks so much for taking my questions. Thank you. The next question will come from John Penn-Kari of Evercore ISI. Your line is open, sir. Good morning. I want to see if we can get just some of your updated thoughts on buybacks here. You see if you want to get 10.7 and, you know, you indicated the 4 billion buyback and 2 tier when you expect to continue to buyback from here. But obviously, Basel 3, endgame is a factor. And I heard you on, you know, that you're contemplating buybacks as you look out from here. So, could you maybe help frame that for us what that could mean in terms of the pace of repurchases? Thanks. You know, not really any more than I think that's, I think what we said is, you know, as much clarity as, you know, we want to give it this time.
I think, you know, we are, you know, we have substantial excess capital above the regulatory requirements and regulatory buffers. And on top of, you know, the level of buffers that we have talked about running at. And so we think that's prudent given the fact that, you know, it's likely that capital requirements are going up. But, you know, the reality, you know, to answer the question, you know, just in terms of the timing and in terms of the ability to answer the question, you know, from everything that we read is the same thing that you read. It's, you know, likely that we will learn later this month or early next month exactly what the proposal is. And, you know, based upon that, it'll help us inform exactly how much room we have for buybacks. But, you know, in, you know, there are, you know, in most of the scenarios that, you know, we see, you know, there is, you know, room for us to continue the buyback program in a prudent way and still build, require capital to whatever levels we'd have to require to be required to build a map and keep the kind of buffers that we want to keep. So there are a bunch of moving pieces here. And so it's just, it doesn't make sense to put any more, you know, numbers on it until we actually see what those proposals are.
Okay, thank you. That's helpful. And then separately on the NII side, again, appreciate the updated guide for 23 of the 14%. Maybe, can you talk about when you're looking at the forward curve, you know, what could be the forward curve implications for NAI as you look further out into 2024. If we do reach a, you know, fed funds of around 4% implied by the forward curve, how much of a headwind to NII could that be for you? And maybe also, if you could just talk about the near term deposit trajectory, I know you mentioned still continue to climb. So I'm up, you can help frame that. Slide that up. Thanks.
好的,谢谢。那很有帮助。然后关于 NII 方面,感谢提供了关于14%中 23% 的更新指引。也许,您能谈一下当您看着未来的曲线时,对于 2024 年 NAI 来说可能会有什么影响呢?如果我们达到按曲线暗示的约 4% 的联邦基金利率,那对于 NII 来说会有多大的压力呢?另外,如果您能谈一下近期存款的发展轨迹,我知道您提到了仍然在上升。如果可以的话,您可以帮忙解释一下。
Yeah, John, I'm not going to, you know, give you much clarity on 2024. But I think the things you should think about, obviously, are going to be, you know, as rate on the commercial side, you know, rate, beta, beta is on the way up, we're pretty high. Beta is on the way down or pretty high. And, you know, the consumer side really has to move much at this point. And so I do, you know, you sort of have to go into your modeling, looking at each of the components a little bit, a little bit differently. And as we, and I think many others have talked about over time, like once rates peaked, there is likely some lag of continued repricing, you know, for, you know, for a while after rates peaked. And so you've got to think about all of how that, you know, goes in your model.
And then I think, as I said in my script, I think, you know, we've seen pretty consistent, you know, performance across the positives over the last couple quarters. And we're not seeing, you know, big shifts in behavior at this point. And so we'll see how that goes over the, you know, coming quarters. But, but there's, you know, there's still a lot of, you know, uncertainty in the assumptions that you go through, that you have here. And so you got to, you got to make your best judgment on what you think is going to happen. But as you get closer, you know, to, to the end of the rate cycle, you've probably seen, you know, a lot of the, you know, mix shift and repricing happening already. And so we'll, we'll see how that goes.
And I think, can I just add? Thank you. Yeah. You know, just even just more broadly, just to be, you know, be clear about, you know, we don't, you know, we're not looking, you know, specifically at giving guidance in terms of 2020 for yet. But at the same time, just, you know, more broadly speaking, you know, we are and have been out earning an NII. And we've been very clear about that as we talk about, you know, getting towards our 15% ROTC targets. It's, it's in a more normalized environment. But at the same time, you know, there are, you know, series of things that, you know, we expect to be able to do as we look forward, you know, a big part of it is growing the fees and the business as Mike spoke about. We're not constrained by the asset cap. They're in our existing businesses. And a lot of the things that we're doing, whether it's in our wealth business, whether it's in the card business, whether it's in the corporate investment bank or middle market as well, we do expect to, you know, see the fruits of that labor.
At the same time, we continue to stay very focused on expenses. And then the other thing I would just remind everyone is, you know, there's lots of conversations around charge offs and things like that. But, you know, remember, we are all required when we think about CISO, you know, to be as forward-looking as we possibly can. You all know how we come up with the different scenarios. And so the level of reserving that's been running through our P&L, I think this is the fifth consecutive quarter we've added to reserves, which is what's impacting the EPS of the company, you know, has been, you know, based upon an environment which, at some point, will be very different than what the expectation is sitting here. So I think you add all those things together. And I just think it's important to think about all those things as opposed to just NII itself.
Hi, good morning. Just two follow-ups. One on the reserve build in commercial real estate that I know you discussed a bit already. I just wanted to understand how much of that was coming from, you know, really California, you know, we all know there was a property that traded on California Street that sold at discount. So I'm just wondering how much of it is, you know, California office versus anything more broader based beyond that. Thanks.
Yeah, Betsy, it's not isolated in California. I mean, I think you see weakness in a lot of cities these days and it really comes down to property specific stuff. And even in California, you know, we've got, you know, as many examples where, you know, clients are actually reinvesting in buildings, even if at least rates are low or even empty in some cases as they are going into a workout. So I think it really depends on building borrower and all the things we sort of talked about in the script. And it's less focused on just California.
Yeah, and I just want to ramp aside what, you know, Mike is saying, and we talked about this in the prepared remarks, which is, you know, we have all spent, you know, a bunch of time going through a very detailed review of the office portfolio. Just the other day, we went through just a whole series of things that we're seeing. And I just really want to make the point, which I said in my script, it's not, there's, it's a very big mistake to think about lost content by looking at just where the property is. Again, we have examples in cities that are struggling where the structure of our loan is quite good. The underlying property has very high lease rates, you know, for an extended period of time. And then we can have a loan in a market which is doing well, but for whatever reason, that property is a specific issue in that property. There are a bunch of, you know, potential termination dates in the shorter term. And so that's the level of detail that we've used to look at to come up with, you know, what we think the appropriate level of reserving is. And, you know, I think, you know, we've tried to, you know, be as, you know, as diligent as we can in stressing the scenarios that we see play itself out so that when we look at ourselves and we understand what Cecil reserving requires us to do, that's what we're trying to accomplish.
So would you, I mean, I think we all know, like, for the most part commercial real estate loans are bullets, right, where the stress comes at the role. And I guess I'm wondering, is this reserve ad reflecting the entirety of the Cree book for, you know, that entirety of role rate risk? Or is this, you know, like a two year forward? And part of the reason for asking the question is trying to understand if there's, you know, if how much risk there is for further increases in in Cree related reserve belt?
Yeah, my golf, my golf starting then, you either chime in or give your opinion. We have tried to take into account all of the risks, including refinanced risks that exist in the portfolios looking at, you know, the current rate environment, cap rate expectations and things like that. You know, is it possible that we have to add something in the future because we learn more as time goes on? We would never say no. But again, you know, what we're, what we're, what we're trying to do is be holistic in the review of the portfolio based upon everything that we know. And just as you can imagine, when we sit in the room with the people, you know, that run the real estate business and all the risk people, there's a range of opinions. There are people in there that say, we just, you know, it's hard to see losing this amount of money based upon what that individual thinks all of the underlying assumptions will play themselves out as. And then, you know, there are others where we say we actually, you know, want to stress the scenario because it is possible and we have to give a waiting to that. And so that's how we come up with what this is. But again, I, you know, we're trying to, again, I don't know, you know, just we're trying to be forward looking. We're trying to be holistic in all the risks that exist. And part of the reason to show you those, that additional disclosure we made is so you can see exactly where the issues are relative to the rest of the office portfolio and the rest of the CRE and isolate just the, you know, the level of reserving that exists, which is, you know, at this point is substantial.
The next question will come from Gerard Cassidy of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Thank you. Good morning, guys. Mike, can you show us a little bit in response to one of the earlier questions, but when you guys are looking at your balance sheet and you're measuring your tertiary functions on your assets and liabilities, can you share with us what you're thinking for the second half of the year or into next year in terms of how you're managing that and how that may be different than how you positioned the balance sheet a year ago? Yeah, Gerard, sure. It's, you know, it's not that different, right? On the margin, you know, you may be making decisions, you know, to, you know, add a little duration here or there, but I'd say it's marginal at this point and we really haven't changed substantially how the balance sheet's positioned. Very good.
And then just to follow up, I know you guys have given some good details here on working through the commercial real estate portfolio. And Mike, I think you've said in your prepared remarks, in, you know, some cases you've been able to get additional payments or equity investments from your borrowers to, you know, to cure maybe a potential problem. Can you share with us some of the other workout solutions you're using so, you know, you can get through this, you know, this period of adjustment that we're seeing in commercial real estate? Yeah, I mean, sure. It's not, you know, there's, there's plenty of little structural, you know, enhancements you can make to feel better about it. And then there, there are also, in a lot of cases, getting some partial paydowns. And then you look at and you're trading those for, you know, refinancing in term. And I think you give people a bit more time to work through the sets of issues. You know, I think we try really hard not to punt issues down the road. And so if there are real issues that we need to deal with, we try to deal with them in the moment. But there are a number of structural enhancements that we sort of work on with borrowers to get ourselves comfortable that we're setting the loan up for success. Very good. Thank you. Thank you.
The next question will come from Erica Najarian of UBS. Your line is open. Hi, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask a question on how you're interpreting the OCC and said joint statement that they put out on June 29th, you know, encouraging lenders, you know, to sign short-term or temporary loan accommodation solution for their borrowers. Is that really anything new? Is that just standard operating procedure that they're reiterating? Or can this sort of help, you know, provide a solution that would allow you to work with your borrowers and perhaps delay classification, you know, deterioration of classification or classification to TDR?
Yeah, it's my health. I'll take that. Well, TDR doesn't exist anymore, but the classification, but the guidance is very similar to what was issued, you know, originally back in 2009 hasn't really changed much and doesn't really change the way we've been interacting with our borrowers already in terms of really being proactive to work with them to find solutions to help them work through what can be difficult circumstances in some cases. So, and it doesn't give you any leeway for how you classify criticized loans or other or other classifications. So the intent is really to, you know, just be clear that, you know, people should continue to work with borrowers to find solutions, which is what we do all the time anyway.
Got it. And just a follow-up question here. Thank you for the disclosure again, on slide six. You know, with, you know, 22 billion of your loans in CIB, I think investors are wondering, you know, what is the average loan size there?
Yeah, I don't think that's something we give. And it's a wide range. Averages sometimes are very misleading. And so, so there's a wide range. And what really matters is not the loan size. It really matters. You know, what really matters is for all the variables Charlie talked about earlier in terms of what's happening with that property. So I think that would be, I think I would focus there.
Got it. And just squeezing in one more question. And before I ask this expense question, Charlie, I think your investors are very much appreciated that you're not just doing whatever you can to hit an expense number and you're reinvesting back into the company. So to that, and I'm wondering if, have you disclosed how much of the 800 million increase in the outlook for this year has to do with severance?
We didn't give it a exact number, but that is by far the single largest, you know, piece of it. That's part of it. And there's some other exit costs for properties that we, you know, exit some lease space and other things. But that is, the severance is by far the largest piece.
The next question comes from Matt O'Connor of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Good morning. I want to follow up Charlie on from the Propere-Ribot. You talked about there's still some things that you're implementing to address regulatory issues. And wondering if you could give a couple examples of what still needs to be done in terms of implementation and when you expect that to be completed.
In listen, I think as we've said, there's a lot of work to do. It is multi, you know, years worth of deliverables. You know, what we've, what I've said is that, you know, we've implemented a lot, but we still have more to do. And I'm, when I say that, I just want to be clear, I'm speaking in Krahmach. Everyone generally thinks I'm speaking about one of the consent orders, which has the SF-CAP. We're thinking about all of the work that we have to do related to all the consent orders and the work to build the control environment. And there is a lot getting done. But ultimately what matters, you know, you don't get an A for effort in this. It's about getting things over the finish line on time and getting them done to the, you know, with the quality that our regulators and we expect from each other. And so, you know, as you know, you know, we've been very careful not to put dates out there because we have to do our work and then our regulators have to take a look at it and see if it's done to their satisfaction. We don't want to get ahead of that process. But we continue to move forward.
And I understand that, you know, you can't speak for them signing off on what you've done. But, you know, in terms of you accomplishing what you want to accomplish, you know, where are you on that kind of process, like whether you want to frame it from an innings perspective or a percent basis, anyway, to frame that, you know, acknowledging there's a lot to do and that you've done a lot, but how far along are you in terms of what you can control on implementing these things?
Yeah. Now, listen, I appreciate, you know, the, you know, the, your desire to have me answer those questions. But again, all that matters, it does, you know, our view of accomplishing the work doesn't matter. What matters is that our regulators look at it and say it's done to their satisfaction. So I really don't think it's helpful or productive to, you know, go beyond what I've said at this point. But again, I do, if I do understand and appreciate why you're asking. Understood, Karen. Thank you. Thank you. The next question comes from Vivek Jeneja of JP Morgan. Her line is open.
Hi, thanks. Quick one. Mike Ochali, can you give us the maturity schedule? What percentage or amount of your office theory loans are maturing in the second half and into 2024? Not specifically, Vivek, we don't disclose that, but you should assume these are standard, you know, course loans in the commercial real estate space, which are generally three to five year loans. And you haven't really been originating much in the last couple of years. So I guess we could go back to looking at when did you slow down the origination of new office theory, Mike? Was it two years ago? Was it three, any color on that?
Yeah, look, I think you have to remember that we've been refinancing, you know, existing facilities along with that time period. So, but I think if you take the portfolio and assume some kind of basic average life based on what I've said, I think you'll get a pretty good sense of, of, you know, the approximate maturity schedule.
Okay. And how about multifamily? What's the average life of those loans and maturities there? I recognize your comment. I heard your comments of those in much better position, given all the factors you already cited. Slightly longer, a few years longer than, to your, than office. Okay. All right. Thank you. And our final question for today's call will come from Charles Peabody of Vertella's Partners. Your line is open, sir.
Good morning. Most of my questions were already asked an answer, but just a one to follow up on the consent order issues. If I recall correctly, and please correct me if I'm wrong, there's six consent orders remaining and three of them, if I remember, deals somewhat with the mortgage banking operation. And I know starting last fall, you started the planning effort to simplify and downsize that. And you've been executing on that this year. Can you give us a sense of what it is you need to do in mortgage banking related to those consent orders?
Yeah, I saw this, Mike. So, so first of all, there are nine public consent orders out there that are, that are all there. So you can, you can see those the, when you look at them, the mortgage ones, I think that each of the consent orders is actually quite clear in terms of, you know, what needs to happen to satisfy those. So I would, I would just point you back to the, the documents themselves, which, which can give you a pretty good sense of what it, what it is. And each one's a little bit different.
Paul up and do you talk to the regulators about the progress you're making in mortgage banking on a monthly basis or quarterly basis, semi-annual, or do you, do you present something at the end? How does the interaction with all regulators go? We talk to our regulators all the time, at all, at all parts of the company, at all levels of the company. And so, you know, you should, you should assume we're, we're actively engaged consistently with, with our regulators all the time. But the only thing I would add to that is, but again, you know, they're, they're, they're here, they're on site. We talk to them literally all the time.
Right. No, I understand that. But specifically related to the progress you're making. No, I don't want to. Just give me a second. We talk to them about everything. And given the importance of the consent orders, you can assume it's about the work that's going on in the underlying consent order. But having said all of that, what matters is the work that they do at the end of the consent order after we submit it to them. And so, you know, they can be up to speed on what we're doing. They can know how we feel about the progress that we're making. But at the, but when we submit a consent order to them, they come in and do their holistic review. And so that's really where their determination is made about whether or not it's done to their satisfaction. So again, that just gets to, you know, the question, you know, the reason why I want to be very careful about not drawing any conclusions from our view on our work or any interim comments we might get from them. What really matters is the holistic review that they do and the process that they go through internally in the regulatory organizations.
Yeah. So that was part of my first question is, have you submitted anything yet on mortgage banking? We're not going to talk about that. I've said that over and over and over again.