Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Rivians' fourth quarter in four-year 2022 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listening mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a questioning after session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press Star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press Star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
I would now like to hand the conference over to you, Speaker Day, Tim Bay, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for Rivians' fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. Joining us on today's call, we have RJ Scrooge, our founder, chairman, and chief executive officer, and Claire McDonough, our chief finance officer. A copy of today's shareholder letter is available on our Investor Relations website.
Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today only, and will include statements related to our business that are forward-looking statements under federal securities laws, including without limitation, statements regarding our market opportunity, industry trends, business operations, strategy goals, our production ramp, and manufacturing capacity expansion, our future products and product enhancements, including R2, and our expectations regarding vehicle production and deliveries.
Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business, which are described in our SEC filing, and today's shareholder letter. During this call, we will discuss both GAP and non-GAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAP to non-GAP financial measures is provided in today's shareholder letter.
Just before the call, we published our shareholder letter, which includes an overview of our progress over the recent months. I encourage you to read it for additional details around some of the items we'll cover on today's call. With that, I'll turn the call over to RJ, who will begin with a few opening remarks.
Thanks, Tim. Thank you for joining us. 2022 is a transformation year for us. We fought through a difficult operating environment to ramp the R&T, the R&S, and the EDD, with total production of 24,337 vehicles for the year. Beyond ramp, we focused our product teams on our next generation in vehicle technologies and the R2 platform. I want to thank our team, suppliers, and partners for their grit and determination in helping remain achieved its targets.
In the fourth quarter, we increased production over 10,000 units. This represents a 36% increase over the third quarter of 2022. We maintain a vehicle backlog that provides clear demand visibility well into 2024. We launched our adventure network, which gives customers a smoother charging experience. We expanded our service infrastructure to 28 physical service locations, in addition to nearly 200 mobile service fans, and we pushed a range of major software updates to our customers.
Our core priorities for 2023 are ramping production of our R1 and RCD platforms, driving cost reductions, developing the R2 platform and its future technologies, and delivering an outstanding end-to-end customer experience. In my role as CEO, I'm most important responsibility, and is to make sure we have the right leaders and the right organizational design in place to drive focus in execute our priorities. It's great to see the very capable and experienced leaders we've added over the last year.
Equally important to ramping production is our drive towards profitability. We are focused on reducing our bill of materials, conversion costs, logistics costs, and overall operating expenses. Quarter this is our close work with our supplier partners to lower our material costs through new engineering solutions, as well as revisiting some of the customer commercial negotiations that were agreed to years ago when we were in with still pre-launch. In support of these efforts, we held a supplier day at the end of 2022, where we hosted over 400 members of our supply chain at the plan to demonstrate the growth and the scale of what we're building.
Our supplier partners are engaged and fully understand the benefits of us achieving possibilities quickly as possible. One of the enablers to reduce our material costs is the introduction of our future technologies. Early this month, we started producing scalable units of our in-house and DRO drive unit. In DROs, our single motor drive unit, and in our commercial van platform, we used it in a front drive application, and in the R1 platform, as a dual motor setup, we used it for all-wheel drive application.
The Enduro Drive units are also accompanied by our new lithium-ion phosphate battery packs for our commercial van line. These LFP packs are daily suited for commercial use cases due to their low cost and really the durability of this chemistry.
Another important example of our technology development, the dynamic side-gintry is the 390 mile R1S Maxpack variant. We begin deliveries on this vehicle this fall, and we expect high demand for this new offering. The R1S Maxpack will launch with the dual motor configuration, leveraging our Enduro drive unit, and will deliver 0-60 acceleration in around 3.5 seconds. When we couple that with our full-air suspension and electronic damping system, it will really deliver incredible on-road and off-road performance.
The purpose for our investments in software, electronics, driving units, and batteries is to improve performance in the great long-term structural cost of engines. These technologies will serve as the foundation for our R2 platform. Our production ramp and introduction of multiple vehicle platforms has equipped our team with valuable manufacturing, operations, and product development experience in a short period of time. We're taking advantage of these learnings and our quest for applying this experience to our first mass-marker vehicle, the R2, as well as to our new manufacturing facility in which we'll build the R2, located in Georgia, with the goal of establishing a considerably lower cost structure.
Speaking of R2, we're really at an exciting and defining moment for the program. We have members across organizations from design to engineering to manufacturing coming together to develop what we believe is a true category of the funding platform. Over the next six months, we'll be finalizing the majority of the core engineering and sourcing decisions that will drive how the R2 product line is built and the speed at which we can ramp production to profit building.
We spent years creating our brand and award winning set of products that drive excitement and attract new customers to what we're doing. The validation we receive from our customers and media continues to be strong. In fact, the R&T received several new accolades, including being the best ownership experience among premium battery electric vehicles by JD Power. In addition to its editors' choice award, the R&T was also included in car and drivers coveted 10-best award for 2023. And along with that, it was praised as being the best driving pickup car driver has ever tested. In consumer reports, customer satisfaction survey, review was rated among the highest across all categories with R&T being the highest rated truck. We've also received the highest safety rating of top safety pick plus from IHS. That's passing IHS's new tougher standards for 2023 across all categories.
On our go-to-market side of the business, which includes our customer engagement, service, delivery, and demand generation teams, we've experienced rapid growth over the past year as we've built a foundation for our end-to-end customer experience and self-run service offerings. We need to execute against our robust customer backlog and remain focused on our customers as we scale our 150,000 units of annual capacity and normal into ultimately multiple production plants around the world.
The enthusiasm for our products and our brand, combined with the progress we're making on our future vehicles and technologies, along with the strong team that we built, gives me confidence in our ability to help drive the massive impact we need as planet and a transition to a carbon-free economy. With that, I'll pass the call over to Claire. Thanks, Fargey.
I want to reinforce the important steps we took during 2022 to drive towards profitability. Our goal is to build Rivian for the long term, to build a company capable of adapting during good times as well as challenging ones.
In the last year, we took intentional measures to focus our product portfolio and drive a lower cost structure. Twenty expenses in the second half of 2022 felt 21 percent as compared to the first half of the year. For the full year 2022, operating expenses were in line with 2021 results, while we continue to invest in and scale our delivery and go-to-market operations and next generation technology.
In addition, our team was able to reduce our capital expenditures for 2022 to $1.4 billion versus $1.8 billion in 2021 due to the fact that our equipment and facility costs were more highly concentrated, leading into our starter production in normal. We're encouraged by this progress and recognize there is an additional opportunity to drive greater efficiency. We are concentrating our investments and resources on growing the consumer business, while continuing to leverage our existing commercial platform.
We believe these core aspects of our company represent the greatest levers to maximize our impact and drive attractive financial returns.
我们相信公司的核心方面是最大的杠杆,可以最大化我们的影响力并推动有吸引力的财务回报。
I will now review our fourth quarter 2022 results. The last 12 months were characterized by economic uncertainty as well as significant supply chain volatility across the industry. By focusing on factors within our control, our team was able to achieve meaningful milestones.
During the fourth quarter, we produced 10,020 vehicles and delivered 8,054 vehicles, which generated $663 million of revenue. We generated negative gross profit of $1 billion for the fourth quarter of 2022. Gross profit for the fourth quarter was impacted by a lower of cost or net-realizable value LCNRV adjustment.
As discussed in the past, the LCNRV adjustment writes down the value of certain inventory and records losses on firm purchase commitments to the amount we anticipate receiving upon vehicle sale after considering the future cost necessary to ready the inventory for sale. As of December 31, 2022, LCNRV was $920 million as compared to $95 million as of December 31, 2021. These charges are expected to continue through 2023.
However, as we reduce cost of goods sold per vehicle by lowering material, production, logistics, and other costs, we anticipate that the total charge will decline. We forecast reaching positive gross profit in 2024, and therefore, expect by the end of 2024, you will no longer have material LCNRV inventory charges and losses on firm purchase commitments associated with the production at our normal plant. In addition to LCNRV, there were factors which negatively impacted our cost of goods sold that we do not believe are reflective of our long-term cost structure.
The most significant driver continues to be our production levels. Producing highly vertically integrated vehicles at low volumes, online design for higher volumes, means we currently carry more overhead per vehicle produced. This impact has and will continue to be magnified during the ramp of our second shifted production as we introduce new technologies like our LFP battery pack and Endura motor for which we stop the commercial production line for the majority of the first quarter of 2023. Additionally, because we are in an LCNRV position, we do not fully capitalize our logistics and conversion costs into inventory which can lead to volatility in our cost of goods sold based on the amount of inbound materials we receive in a particular quarter or the difference between our vehicle production and deliveries as we saw in Q4 2022.
Operating expenses in the fourth quarter of 2022 fell $1.3 billion as compared to the same period last year. Approximately $1.1 billion of this difference was due to higher non-cash expenses in the fourth quarter of 2021, including a donation to Forever By Rivian and Stock-based Compensation in conjunction with the IPO. The remaining reduction of approximately $200 million was due to lower cash expenses associated with the operations of our business. We continue to prioritize investments in our core in vehicle technologies and customer experience while also driving additional focus and cost optimization across the business. Our adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2022 was negative $1.5 billion, which compares to negative $1.1 billion for the fourth quarter of 2021.
2022年第四季度的运营支出较去年同期下降了13亿美元。其中约有11亿美元是由于2021年第四季度高额的非现金费用所致,包括捐赠给Forever By Rivian和股票补偿与IPO有关。其余约为2亿美元的降低是由于公司经营所涉现金支出的减少。我们继续优先投资于核心车辆技术和客户体验,同时在业务的各个方面推动更高的关注和成本优化。我们2022年第四季度的调整后的EBITDA为负15亿美元,而上一年同期为负11亿美元。
We ended the fourth quarter of 2022 with $12 billion in cash equivalents and restricted cash. This excludes the capacity under our $750 million asset-based revolving credit facility. We continue to monitor the economic environment and believe we have a high level of flexibility regarding the cadence of our growth investments.
I want to take this opportunity to highlight important operational changes we're making in normal. In addition to the commercial van line shutdown during the first quarter of 2023, which we expect to result in a drop in overall production and deliveries relative to Q4 2022, we also expect to be taking both the R1 and EDV production lines down for a week during the fourth quarter of 2023 to prepare for capacity change, which will happen in 2024.
In the first half of 2024, we intend to take production of the plant down for a few weeks to implement new technologies into our vehicles and shift the overall capacity of the plant to be about 55% R1. While the incorporation of these new technologies temporarily impacts production, they are expected to provide improved vehicle performance in range and deliver cost reductions that are critically important to our path to profitability.
Now turning to our 2023 outlook, we are guiding to 50,000 vehicles produced for the year. This represents the doubling of year-to-year production, but also accounting for the risk and uncertainties associated with the supply chain and integration of our new technologies.
We expect the ramp of our second shift for the R1 line to continue to progress through the first quarter. We expect full-year production to be back and weighted due to supply constraints we believe will alleviate in the second half of the year and the commercial line down time we're taking in Q1 2023.
In 2023, our gross margin is expected to remain negative, but we anticipate improving on a dollar basis for the year as we reduce our cost of goods sold per vehicle produced, improve our average selling prices per vehicle, and begin to see our LCNRV charge decline.
For 2023, total operating expenses are expected to modestly increase as compared to 2022. As a result of these factors, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be negative $4.3 billion in 2023 and improvement of $900 million versus 2022. We continue to rationalize our capital expenditures due to a greater focus on our core business. Capital expenditures in 2023 are expected to be $2 billion driven by additional investment in our normal and Georgia facilities, next generation technologies, and the continued build-out of our good-a-market operations.
In addition to our 2023 guidance, I wanted to address the capital needs of the business over the medium term. The largest lever in our forecast is the swing from one billion dollars of gross profit in Q4 2022 to a step change in positive gross margin in 2024. There are three key levers that enable this improvement. First, the most impactful driver is the per-unit reduction of labor overhead and ramp expenses as our large scale plant produces a greater number of units. With the addition of our second shift, the plant in normal is currently staff to produce a significantly higher number of units than our current run rate.
For context, these expenses represent two-thirds of the bridge from our current COGs per unit to what we expect by the end of 2024. The second area is our material cost. We have a detailed roadmap of both engineering and commercial cost-downs. As Arge mentioned, our recent supplier day demonstrated the win-win opportunity for our suppliers to participate in Rivians' growth. The final bucket is price. The implementation of our reservation system in early 2022 provides us the pricing flexibility to accommodate the introduction of new products, technologies, and inflationary pressures.
While most of our deliveries are based on pre-Marchverse 2022 pricing, we expect to see a meaningful step change in average selling price over the next two years as we introduce new higher price variants as well as move to our post-Marchverse pre-orders. In addition to the gross profit improvements I outlined, we expect to see significant leverage of our operating expenses over this period as we leverage our R&D and SGNA expenses over a much larger sales base. We also anticipate being able to maintain our capital expenditures in the low $2 billion area over this timeframe.
Our objective continues to be driving towards profitability and our prudent deployment of capital. From a cash burn perspective, we expect 2024 to improve versus 2023 by approximately 40 percent, enabled by the step change we see in gross profit. In 2025, we expect our cash burn to improve meaningfully versus 2024 as we have a full year of production at our new price points and the incorporation of our next generation technologies. We remain confident that our cash and cash equivalents can fund our operations through 2025.
We continue to evaluate a variety of capital markets available to Rivian ranging across the capital structure. We plan to employ a portfolio-based approach as we look to maintain a strong balance sheet position. In closing, I want to reiterate our confidence in our long-term financial targets. We see a clear path to our approximately 25 percent gross margin target, high-teens eBIT-DOM margin target, and approximately 10 percent free cash flow target.
With that, let me turn the call back to the operator to open the line for Q&A. Thank you.
As a reminder to ask a question, please press Star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press Star 11 again. Please stand by when we compile the Q&A roster.
As we think about the LSENRB, as I mentioned in my prepared work, right, today we sit with a $929,000 charge, and we expect that charge to be fully offset out of our P&L in effect as we approach positive unit economics in that 2024 timeframe as outlined. So the guidance that I would provide for you is you think about the cadence of that 920 going to zero is it won't necessarily be a linear path over the course of the next several quarters, but we will start to see those impacts even, you know, as early as Q1 as we start to reduce the material cost within our vehicles. And importantly, as we think about the technology introductions that we have in the EDV, for example, where we introduced the LFP packs and enjoy drive units that drives a material step change in the material cost there. So, you know, for example, the marginal unit that we're producing today for that EDV is now profitable due to some of those changes that we've had from a technology introduction perspective. But we'll continue to see what's been a headwind throughout the course of 2022 become a tailwind as we look at 23 and 24. Okay. So it's actually going to decline. So it would be a subtraction from your cost of goods sold just to clarify that in 2023. That's correct.
And, you know, RJ, I was just hoping maybe you can give us some preliminary thoughts on how different the R2 cost structure will need to be compared to R1 to be competitive when that vehicle comes out. And what's your visibility into achieving those maybe talk a little bit about, we think about batteries primarily when we think about that. But what are some of the non-battery opportunities that you see? Are there any unconventional design or manufacturing innovations that you're looking at for that vehicle?
Yeah. Thanks, Ron. As we think about the R2 platform, it's leveraging a lot of some of the technologies we're going to be introducing into R1 in terms of our updated electronics architecture and network architecture where we work to really consolidate a lot of compute functions into a smaller number of ECUs, which simplifies the harness, simplifies the number of compute platforms we have across the vehicle. As Claire mentioned, our Enduro drive units and the really focus on vertically integrating our propulsion platform from a drive unit point of view, drive considerable cost changes into R1. But we take those improvements and we leverage those heavily for R2. And then the case of the vehicle, as you think about body, interior chassis system, we've really learned a lot in developing and launching R1 and the EDD program. And so the way we've looked at the design of the product is really through the lens of where we can see opportunities to consolidate parts. So larger, single-piece standings, use of parts of the validation to excursions or castings. And that part of the consolidation not only reduces number of parts in the vehicle, but as a result, there's less joints, there's less things that need to be attached to one another. It simplifies the assembly process, it simplifies the sourcing process. And so that's a major, major focus for us with the R2 product. And really the magic of it or the core of it is to ensure that the brand essence and the excitement of what we build is still fully captured in the R2 product line. But of course, achieving it with a, with a meaningfully lower cost structure.
The other thing I just point out is, and I noted this in my opening remarks, we're in a very different position with our supply chain today than we were when we were sourcing a lot of our supply components for R1. You know, a lot of the components are vast majority of them were sourced in 2018-2019. Well before we launch the product, well before we saw the incredible response from customers around the brand. So today's we're now making those supplier selections, negotiating those supplier contracts in R2. We're not only using the R2 contracts to help drive better costs into R1. But we're achieving much, much more aggressive cost and much more aggressive pricing with all the various components across the vehicle. So so in aggregate, we are going to see it in a truly lower cost structure for R2. And that's, as I said, that's foundational to how we think about that product.
It sounds like RJ you're thinking about things like gigacastins and a lot of innovations in reducing the number of parts in the structure of a vehicle.
听起来你正在思考像gigacastins等创新技术,来减少车辆结构中零部件的数量。
So you at this point have visibility into that and are you starting to get visibility into what the component cost structure will be for the R2. And just lastly, you have any color on as we're sort of bridging to profitability, robust profit profitability.
What kind of volume target thing you're thinking about is you look out to 2024. You mentioned 150,000 units of capacity, but do you think you can get to at least 100,000 in that timeframe?
Well, just, that's your first point on how we're thinking about component design or system design across the vehicle. One of the things we spend a lot of time on across all the different tech areas of the product is looking for opportunities at a holistic level or at a system level to reduce complexity and reduce parts.
So whether that's in take for example in our Enduro driving it, we took the gearbox, the motor and the inverter, those are typically three different subassemblies that are mechanically fastened together.
And in the case of Enduro, those we call it three and one, those three systems are captured into one casting. So we designed this system really holistically to take three different parts, combined into one, reduced the number of fasteners, of course, increased the assembly and build time, or decreased the assembly build time for the drive unit.
But that mentality, that mindset, we're applying to everything, whether it's a seat frame, whether it's a door system, a drive unit as I just described.
Of course, body structure is a big opportunity for this as well. So this is something that we carry into every design review. It's part of the design criteria that we approach the vehicle with.
And it's one of the big enablers that we have because we've already integrated so much the technology, and I mentioned it before, but the ability to dramatically reduce the number of computers in the vehicle and our VCUs through a zonal architecture where we have a computer in the front, a computer in the back, a computer in the middle, so to speak, rather than separate domain based or function based computers, which is historically how we've seen vehicles done today, and it's largely a result of an outsourced model around electronics.
So these are some of the core focus areas where we're leveraging what we've built in terms of capability, what we built in terms of technology, as we go into R2. And we're on baby.
因此,这些是我们在R2阶段中利用我们已经建立的能力和技术方面的一些核心重点领域。我们已经准备好了。
And the volume. And the volume question that you have there as well. As I talked about in my prepared remarks, today we have 65,000 units of our one capacity in the plant in normal, and we're increasing that capacity so that 55% or call it 85,000 units will become our one capacity.
As we re-rate the line mid-year next year. And so next year we'll have both the impact of having a multi-week shutdown as we re-rate the plant to add that incremental R1 capacity and at that same time.
We'll be introducing a number of the next generation technologies that RJ just talked about as well. And so we'll still be in a period whereby we'll be continuing to ramp out of that shutdown in mid-year to produce more units in the back half of the year.
But it really won't be till full year 2025 where we'll be ramping up the then re-rated capacity from an R1 perspective. So just to clarify what you're saying, are you saying that you're not going to have the 85,000 units of R1 capacity available for 2024 or will you?
It'll be available. We're re-rating the lines mid-year in 2024. And so from a full year perspective, we won't have the full year impact of that re-rate as we go through the process of a couple of weeks shutdown and then ramp back out of that shutdown in the back half of the year.
Okay, but despite that, you're still thinking that you can get to gross profit in 2024. That's right.
好的,但尽管如此,你仍然认为你能够在2024年达到毛利润。没错。
Okay. Just to clarify that, I could see it looks like you're going to have something like a $2,000,000 gross profit loss in 2023. There's half of the LCNRV benefit left from 2023 to 2024.
That did you maybe a $1,000,000,000,000,000 price increase that was applied this year that would have been 650 million better.
今年实际上出现了一万亿美元的价格增长,这导致额外花费了 6.5 亿美元。
So that would have gotten you to maybe an $850 million gross profit loss. I guess the rest of it is whatever volume you're expecting plus lower component cost. Is that fair as we think about the bridge next year?
Great. As we think about that 2024 bridge, it's a combination of increased volumes that are driving significant fixed cost leverage within the business as we're continuing to ramp up production levels in the plant in normal.
And then the next two toward drivers for us is the reduction in our material costs, which you heard Arje talk a bit about is really delivered through both the combination of engineering design changes in the vehicle through the introduction of these next generation technologies.
And then the commercial cost down efforts that we have underway overall. So I would guide you to about a 50-50 list as we think about the core drivers between commercial cost downs and engineering changes to drive the material cost reduction. And then at the same time, we have both of the step change in pricing as we move past the pre-march 1st 2022 pre-orders. And then we also introduced some of the newer high price, higher price clearance into the fold as well, that also further improves or increases ASP in 2024.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America. Your line is still open. Good evening, guys. Just a first question around what's going on with suppliers. It's not like they're still a fair amount of bottlenecks there. I'm just curious if you could sort of elucidate where those specifically are, how much they're holding you back. And I mean, I kind of applaud you, RJ, for having that supplier day. It sounds like it's a good thing to build those relationships. But it sounds like you felt like you needed to do that both for sort of comfort on their part. But also for you to get maybe closer to them and pull them along. So I'm just trying to understand what those constraints are at the moment. How much they're holding you back in 2023 and why you need to kind of get in there and kind of do that fair hug on that supplier day.
Thanks, John. As we look at 2022, there is a lot of challenges just with some of the surprises and the things that we didn't expect in terms of supply interruptions and component availability. As we look at 2023, we have much better visibility and a much clearer picture of access to supply and where there are going to be challenges or constraints. And very different than where we were last year, that visibility allows us to focus on exactly what will go wrong or what will be a gap.
And at the sense of day and the numbers of clear reference earlier in terms of guidance, it really reflects the supply constraint in our case around power-semic inductors. And this is being addressed through working hard with suppliers, but also as I talked about bringing up the new driving and the Enduro driving unit, we've sourced the power-semic inductors for this in a way that allows us to have multiple paths to continue to ramp. So we have a different set of power-semic inductors suppliers for our existing driving.
It's a quad motor from what we have in the dual motor and in the single motor for the commercial van. So those changes of the new technology along with the supplier relationships we built allows us to alleviate some of that constraint, but it will be the ultimate limiting factor for us this year. And fortunately on last year, we can plan around it. We have visibility into what those constraints look like. So it's not going to be a surprise, which is why we're wanting to be thoughtful and how we guide here.
I guess there's a lot of people that want to understand what is certainly not one time, because this is not going to ease that quickly. What's happening because of the supply chain side and what's happening because of what is not getting done internally on a micro basis. So is there a way to piece that out and say, hey, listen, if we had all the semis that we could get, we could actually be 100,000 units as opposed to 50,000 this year. I mean, is there a way to tease that out or is that getting too cute?
Well, I think the issue we have is that the supply constraint is by far the way the biggest constraint. You know, we talked about our second shift coming online and the ramp of our second shift. We didn't really talk about why it's, you know, what's constraining that ramp, but it's ultimately, it is component supply. That's on the R1 line today, so you think about the commercial vehicle line. We're still running a single shift there. So it's, you know, we wish we could have the components built or fully run the plant across all lines across multiple shifts, but that's not the case. And I was thinking about power, you know, semiconductors, in addition to having multiple sources of supply, we also have different types of technologies. So we use both silicon carbide and silicon IGBTs. And we have some level of fungibility in how we apply those across the vehicle sets, but it's, you know, I think you will, you understand very well that some of the constraints that exist until the comparator are going to be challenging over the next year. And so we've worked really hard to set up our supply chains as we come out of this year and into 2024, we're positioned to really grow.
And of course, you know, we think about R2. This is a major consideration from a power module point of view. Okay, and then just last year real quick, CapExa 2 billion is a little bit lower than we were expected. You know, clearly that's the kind of thing that you can kind of run with as you're launching, you're launching, you know, Georgia in the R2 and ultimately maybe the RT at some point or could there be a significant step up as that plant ramps going in 24, 25, at least do the RT come on there as well?
Sure, John, as I talked about, our expectation is that we'll maintain our CapEx in the low 2 billion area over the next couple of years. And the guidance reflects the continued build out of our facility in Georgia, continued investment in our plants in normal. And then they continued investments that we have across our good-emoted operations as well as, you know, across the business in aggregate. So as the way I would characterize it is that the 2 billion per year certainly set this up in position to launch, you know, R2 in Georgia in 2026 as we've talked about in the past.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of the button with Evercora ISI. You'll want to know open.
谢谢。我们下一个问题来自Evercora ISI的用户。您想询问什么。
Hi, RJ. Hi, Claire. So given the target for positive Grimoz margins in 24 and, you know, what we've heard about the road to reach this goal with the LCNRB phase outs and re-rates the factory, in your mind, can 25 approach a normalized gross margin profile, assuming full capacity at normal and pricing normalization on the R1 platform prior to sort of R2 coming online. And you know, follow up there. Is that target still 15 to 20 percent?
Sure. Our long-term vehicle gross margin target is 20 percent. And then through the introduction of additional software and services, we've guided to a long-term overall aggregate gross margin target of 25 percent. Our expectation is through the continued ramp of, you know, the R1 and EDV in normal. We can certainly arrive at our, you know, target at vehicle margins and 20, 25 becomes really that sweet spot is, you know, volumes come together and we have, you know, our first full-year production with the integration of our next generation technologies and price points as well. So I have a lot of confidence around the cash flow generation that normal can provide Rivian and believe that normal can support our operating expenses as a company as we continue to invest in the build-out of the R2 platform and get ready to start to launch that platform in Georgia in 26.
Okay. That's helpful. And then just an accounting question from me. Can we have a brief description or explainer on the cat-necks and liabilities bucket at the bottom of the cash flow statement?
好的,这很有帮助。接下来是我的会计问题。我们能否简要描述一下现金流量表底部的“猫颈”和负债桶?
Thank you, guys. We can follow up with you with some details there. Okay. Thank you.
谢谢你们。我们会在那里与你们跟进一些细节。好的,谢谢。
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dan Levy with Barclays. You want us to open.
Hi. Good evening. Thank you for taking the question. I wanted to ask about the commentary on the pre-orders and I see the comment that lasts into 2024. Maybe you can provide any additional voiceover, you know, how of pre-orders trended year to date and specifically maybe you can, you mentioned pricing to the tailwind, you know, you have the higher pricing flowing through eventually. But given the price cut that we saw from one of your large EV competitors, how does potential for price cuts eventually factor into your calculus?
Thanks, Dan. As we think about the R1 product line, this is really our flagship product line. You know, we've built it and launched it to establish a brand and as part of that, the pricing levels and the segments through which these products are going to compete in, you know, it's a larger set of vehicles. The three of us should be in a two-row pickup. The pricing levels really need to be compared to things that are in those segments. And we feel very strong about where we position the product, the R1T. We bring online our standard pack. We'll start at $73,000 in the R1S. It's just around $80,000 with three-row SUV with, you know, very, very strong performance. So the positioning there, we feel confident. We made pricing adjustments in 2022 and we haven't further adjusted from there. Certainly, as Claire noted, our reservation process now gives us more flexibility to make adjustments to pricing over time. But we do see the introduction of some of the new technologies and some of the new features to allow us to actually grow ASP, as Claire said, with not only the new prices coming on for post-March 1 orders, but also to reflect some of the new technologies going to be in the vehicle.
Great, thank you. And the follow-up wanted to ask about the direction of some material costs. And I know you mentioned on your end some initiative to drive costs down. But I want to just ask about the RAWs because we've seen some cost moderation on the RAWs. So maybe you can just talk about whether some of the raw material costs are coming down or I know there's a dynamic of contract recess. And so those might be higher, higher, higher, you over year. So maybe you could just talk about the underlying bomb given the movement in some of the raw material costs.
Sure. Today, we haven't seen those actually hit our financial statements because many of our contracts are actually, you know, backwards looking as it pertains to inflation index prices that are embedded within those contracts. And so we'll begin to see some of those benefits as we progress throughout the course of 2023 itself. I would also say that, you know, embedded within our guidance, we've been a bit conservative of not forecasting really significant reductions in those material costs overall. So much more projecting, you know, more of the status quo of what we're seeing today on a go-forward basis.
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I just like to take you back on the previous demand question, that prior question. I know you're not disclosing that pre-orders, but given there have been so many high profile admissions of a weakening environment for demand, for particularly for e-bues, I'm curious as to whether you could set any light or color as to how your net pre-orders have been tracking. Thank you.
You know, certainly what we're witnessing in the macro and what we're seeing in terms of interest rate is, I think, across the industry having an effect of moderating overall demand. What we would say is, and as we think about it, the demand backlog we have is very robust. It gives us a clear line of sight, you know, well into 2024. And with that, it really focuses the attention of the organization on satisfying the large backlog and ensuring that we can get customers' vehicles. One of the biggest complaints, in fact, our customers who have been in this other week is around billboard timing. How can I get my vehicle's winners or way to get ahead in the line? This is our core challenge today. Now with that said, it's really important to note with the R2 program, we made comments on this earlier, the focus on cost and the focus on engineering vehicles, really to achieve a materially lower price point as key. And as we look out into, you know, middle of the decade, you know, 2026 and beyond, this cost structure we believe is going to be really important. In some of the areas we've invested in in terms of vertical integration, we think we are foundational for delivering on this cost.
This is a follow-up great segue into my question about vertical integration. I mean, I'm sure you've read the same press releases that I have that some of your peers are getting incredibly deep into that. I mean, they're partnering with minds, buying minds, buying stakes in minds. I'm doing things that seem to be a little bit far afield. I'm curious as to how much vertical integration is too much vertical integration. You think that, you know, longer term that might be something that you might explore as well. And thank you.
Yeah, well George, I think the core of the question is sort of pointing towards lithium. You know, and the previous question talks about raw material costs and this has certainly had the most outside, outsized impact across the EV industry with, you know, when it came hydroxide and a stock market price, you know, hovering around $80 a kilogram, you know, four or five times relative to what it was, you know, a year, a year and a half ago. So this is a real consideration has everyone, certainly ourselves, included thinking about what's the right sourcing relationships for lithium, you know, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate. And we're certainly in midst of a lot of those discussions. And I think it's causing the material sources and in our case, the manufacturers, the OEMs to think about the yield structures that are very different than what existed two years ago, three years ago, four years ago. That could involve ownership positions, but I think for the most part, the opportunity line is just more unique structuring. And so we haven't announced anything on that front, but it's something I spend an enormous amount of time on and work very closely with some of the very large players in this space.
Oh, great. Thanks for taking my questions. You're burning through, this year you burned through over 6 billion in cash. You have 12 billion, so you have a couple more years of cash pernathist rate. I mean, if I look at the guidance adjusted you without supposed to improve a bit, the CAPEX is at higher, so it sounds like pre-cashable, maybe modestly better this year, but not massively. You know, what are your thoughts on the potential to need to raise capital when do you start making those decisions, or do, should we see a pretty massive inflection in a couple years?
Thanks, Colin. We'll continue to look at a variety of capital market solutions to maintain our strong balance sheet position. We plan to execute a fully-based approach for our capital raising across the entirety of the capital structure.
And as I mentioned in my prepare remarks as well, we expect to see pretty significant moderation from a cash pern perspective in 2024 relative to 2023 as gross profit, or for sure, the movement from negative gross profit to a positive gross profit is a key lever in that lock of improvement. And then as we talked a bit about as well, 2025 is significant improvement from there as well.
I think the last call you mentioned, you know, you're planning an LFP plan that's not actually in the near-term horizon. Any thoughts on raising capital to accelerate that given the health at IRA that might apply there? You're calling as a reference to in the context of lithium supply. If you move slightly downstream from a battery supply point of view, and in, you know, thinking about IRA, there's going to need to be investment in new capacity. And the types of structures and arrangements to achieve that dedicated capacity, there's lots of different ways to look at that. That's something, certainly, that's part of our plan and something that we're spending time on. We haven't announced anything on that front either, but it is a very important aspect of what we're doing in terms of creating new supply, creating supply that's IRA compliant, both in terms of raw material and also in terms of cell production.
And you have your own LFP chemistry, or do you have a partner for it, so you have your own? So we, when we think about the build out of our battery, overall battery portfolio, we have an internal team that's developing chemistry and it's working to really understand across a variety of trade-offs, how we think about what's the right cell for different duty cycles and for different applications. And that internal team also works very closely with some of our key partners to make sure that we can achieve this scale very quickly that we need to.
So in the case of what's in our vehicles today, it's a high-nickle chemistry. That's something we've worked very closely with our supplier partner to develop that and to refine that to achieve the performance in our vehicles today, with the LFP that we're going to be launching shortly, personal commercial bands that's in the closed partnership that we haven't yet announced, although those vehicles in the form of the bands will be on the road here very soon. And then as we look forward, there's going to be portfolio of different partners and different approaches to achieve the scale we need across different cell form factors and cell chemistry, both high-nickle and lithium-ion phosphate.
Got it. All right, thanks for the kind of question. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JP Morgan. Your line is open. Hi, great. Thanks for taking my question.
I wanted to get your thoughts on any impact to RIVION UC from the Inflation Reduction Act. I mean, the first bill was being written, it was speculated it could have been various different proposals, but in the end, it only subsides the lower price of vehicles, right? And benefits, those manufacturers that are making the batteries or that are vertically integrated or partnered, which you've yet to do. So, do you see any benefit to charging or other tailwinds? And how do you expect or hope to or plan to position the company to better benefit from that act as the next several years play out?
Yes, so I think the area bill, I've said this before, I think it's incredibly aggressive and appropriate to drive broad scale shift towards electrification and to build out a supply chain within the U.S. And with that, in the case of our R1 product line, there's some tailwinds, some benefits that it provides, largely in the form of, because we build modules in the U.S., we have a $10 per kilowatt hour benefit that's derived from IRA on the R1 platform, that's a manufacturing facing benefit.
But in terms of the consumer facing credit, our vehicles aren't really applicable on the R1 platform. Now, in the case of R2, it's a very different story. In the case of R2, it's alluded to in previous questions. It's really important that we ensure the vehicle and the way we manufacture the vehicle and the batteries in the vehicle ensures IRA compliance. The price points to be considerably lower and fall really right into the sweet spot as contemplated by IRA. And the sourcing of the critical materials plus the build of the cells, the manufacturing of the cells, needs to be done such that we qualify for the $7,000 credit that is consumer facing.
So that's foundational to how we're thinking about the R2 program and platform and certainly plays into sourcing the seasons and engineering decisions.
因此,这是我们思考R2计划和平台的基础,当然也影响季节采购和工程决策。
Okay, great. And also just to follow up in that earlier Q&A around pricing, you know, the up to 20% price cut on some of the Tesla models, less for Ford and some of the others, etc. I'm sure there's passed in a long of lower input costs and all that with the battery metals. But is there anything else, you know, it just seemed like a large reduction, right? So how are you feeling about the demand, the new order intake level or whatnot for the prices that you're currently charging?
I think as I described before, in the case of R1, we feel confident in the value proposition of what we're delivering at our pricing levels today. And if you were to compare, take for example, the R1S to other three-row SUVs that offer the level of range and performance that the R1S is delivering, it's a really, we think of it. It's a really good deal.
Of course, a bit biased here, but you know, 0 to 60 in three seconds, well over 3 miles of range. As we just announced today, we have an X-pack variant with 390 miles of range, which when coupled with the Enduro dual motor configuration delivers 0 to 60 in 3.5 seconds. And to be able to deliver that, the types of pricing that we're talking about relative to the competitive set, it's positioned quite well.
Now as you said, there's been price reductions that we've seen, you know, on the order of 20 percent in vehicles that are more in the R2 market basket, if you will. And a lot of that segment had seen significant price inflation in the first half of 2022. And I think we saw the prices go up very rapidly. And we, of course, saw the other side of that, which is the prices come down very rapidly. I think what we're seeing today is reflective of a more stable and sustainable long-term pricing model for vehicles that are in the mid-size crossover and SUV segment versus what we were seeing in the mid, early parts of 2022 and to middle-late part of 2022.
Our last question comes from the line of Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.
我们最后一个问题来自高盛公司的Mark Delaney。
Thank you. I'm going to ask you a line of self.
谢谢。我想问你一个自我介绍。
Yes. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. One for me, please, was about the re-rating discussion. And specifically around the timing and how much of the capacity is being shifted toward R1. I had thought that R1 capacity might be adjusted to something like two-thirds of the facility and perhaps that might be taking place later in 2023. So maybe we could update us on what may have changed in terms of the timing in 24 and the 55% that you spoke about today.
Sure, Mark. As we looked at the re-rating process within the plant, we really tried to optimize around the level of investment that would be required to increase that re-rate capacity. And as we've talked about in the past, desiring today to maintain the 150,000 units of installed capacity in normal, but just slightly tweak that more towards the consumer side of the business today. And so that was really the way that we calibrated around the trade-offs on how deeply we would have to disrupt the line or the level of downtime that would be required to make a more material increase in the production capacity of R1 line, as we thought about the re-rate process itself. So those are some of the core considerations that we went through as we evaluated the re-rate opportunity for us. And as after we sort of go through this re-rate, we'll obviously think through additional opportunities to increase that potentially over time as well.
Again, on the IRA, it takes for all the comments you made already so far, but in terms of demand from commercial customers, including for the delivery van, have you seen any change in terms of customer interest levels and when they may be able to or may be interested in taking vehicles?
Thanks. Thanks, Mark. I should have actually commented on that in the context, Byray. Just to be clear, for commercial vehicles, the requirements of domestic cell production are much different. And so in the case of our commercial vans, they're applicable. And in the case of our R1T for commercial applications, it's also applicable. So we do see that and we see that's something that certainly some of the business owners that are buying R1Ts are leveraging. And then in the case of the commercial vans, this is something that we think is going to be very important. And we're seeing that as we talk to customers outside of Amazon, we see this is a very important enabler. And it helps ignite this large scale transition of our commercial vehicle fleet towards electrification.
I would now like to turn the conference back over to RJ Scorange for closing remarks.
我现在想将会议交回给RJ Scorange进行结束语。
All right. Well, thank you everyone for joining me. Call and thanks for the questions. As I said in my starting comments, we're really excited about what we've seen in front of us.
2022 was an important year for us. It was a critical year where we launched and ramped three different vehicles between the R1T, the R1S and the EDV platform. And as we look into this year, you know, more than doubling the overall output, but importantly, getting a lot of customers and a lot of vehicles into a lot of customers' hands.
We'll start to see a lot more of these on the roads, whether that's the commercial vans or the consumer vehicles, the R1T and the R1S. And as that ramp continues, and as we start to see more and more of our vehicles on the road, as Claire and I both described, a core focus for us is driving costs down across the business.
Some of that will happen naturally as the winds go up and we get to fix cost leverage that Claire described in some detail. But that's also happening through the engineering changes we're making and this really heavy focus on the commercial relationship with all of our suppliers.
So with that, we're very excited about the year ahead and looking forward to getting a lot more vehicles on the road and our path towards profitability.
因此,我们非常期待未来一年,并期待在道路上推出更多的车辆,朝着盈利的道路前进。
Thank you for one. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. Thank you.