Germany's role in NATO and the world | DW Documentary
发布时间 2020-02-13 19:00:08 来源
German and Czech soldiers are carrying out a military exercise in Lithuania. The potential enemy, Russia, their mission, deterrence and a show of strength on NATO's eastern flank. We'll deter the enemy with all the means at our disposal. The world is growing less secure and more confusing.
德国和捷克士兵正在立陶宛进行军事演习。潜在敌人俄罗斯，他们的使命是威慑和在北约东部防线展示力量。我们将利用我们所有可用的手段来威慑敌人。世界变得越来越不安全，越来越令人困惑。
A renewed arms race with nuclear and conventional weapons is imminent. Existing alliances are crumbling. We need to be firm, we need to be strong, to deter any potential aggressor from attacking us to preserve the peace. Germany and its neighbors could again be caught in the middle between the superpowers. Russia is laying claim to territory. And for the first time since World War II, a country is taking that territory by force.
一场新的核武器和常规武器的军备竞赛即将来临。现有的联盟正在瓦解。我们需要坚定，需要强大，以阻止任何潜在的侵略者攻击我们，以维护和平。德国及其邻国可能会再次被卷入超级大国之间。俄罗斯正在声称领土。自二战以来，有一个国家首次以武力夺取该领土。
This is a potential threat of the highest order. And anyone who opposes a rearmament debate is not just naive. That's incredibly dangerous. Can the German military, the Bundeswehr, meet the new challenges? I do believe that the German military is in a very dire and critical state. The number of ships that can't sail, the number of planes that can't fly. And the Western Alliance system still guarantees security? What role does Germany play in NATO and in the world?
这是一种最高级别的潜在威胁。任何反对重新进行武装辩论的人都不仅天真幼稚，而且极其危险。德国军队，联邦国防军，能否应对新的挑战？我相信德国军队处于非常严重和危急的状态。无法行驶的船只数量，无法飞行的飞机数量。西方联盟体系是否仍然能够保证安全？德国在北约和世界上扮演的角色是什么？
In NATO sounds the alarm, the order reaches the 9th armored demonstration brigade in Munsta in northwestern Germany. This time, the mail is about an exercise, but the entire apparatus responds as it would in a genuine emergency. The brigade provides part of the ground troops for NATO's very high readiness joint task force, the VJTF. It was established in 2014 in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea. I've received the alarm order now I have evaluated. And then I decipher the letter combinations in the order to find out which alarm measures have actually been triggered.
在北约发出警报的时候，指令传到了德国西北部门斯塔市的第九装甲演示旅。这次，邮件是关于一次演习，但整个装置都像在真正的紧急情况下一样作出了反应。该旅为北约的超高级别联合任务部队（VJTF）提供部分地面部队。该任务部队于2014年应对俄罗斯吞并克里米亚而建立。我已经收到了警报指令，现在我正在评估情况。然后，我解密指令中的字母组合，以找出实际触发了哪些警报措施。
For that, I consult the Bundeswehr Crisis Response Plan, so I can see which alarm measures are behind the combination of letters. I'll check which measures are important for the VJTF brigade and then I'll inform the chief and the brigade leadership accordingly. Rapid response units are central to NATO's new threat scenarios. In this instance, an emergency situation that involves fighting off an enemy attack will be rehearsed in a maneuver in Poland.
为此，我查阅德国国防军危机应对计划，以了解这些字母组合背后的警报措施。我将检查哪些措施对于快速反应部队旅来说很重要，然后相应地通知首领和旅领导。快速反应部队是北约新威胁情景的核心。在这种情况下，将在波兰的一次演习中排练涉及击退敌人攻击的紧急情况。
Within three days at the most, 2,300 soldiers from three countries have to be ready to move. All the strands come together here in a high security area at headquarters. It's a logistical challenge to coordinate the troops from Germany, Norway and the Netherlands. We have to establish communication with the first German armored division and the German Netherlands Corps. I want the initial results in 90 minutes. The clock is also ticking for Major Maya-Imm.
最迟三天内，来自三个国家的2300名士兵必须准备好出发。所有任务的线索都在这里交集，这里是位于总部的高度安全区域。协调德国、挪威和荷兰的部队是个物流挑战。我们必须与第一德国装甲师和德荷三角洲队建立联络。我希望在90分钟内获得初步成果。对于Maya-Imm少校来说，时间也在紧迫地流逝。
Nothing unusual to report in the area. Very good. The Major heads a company of around 250 soldiers. The biggest challenge for us is to be ready to move within 48 hours. My soldiers have to load all the trucks. The trucks have to be organized in convoy's. My heavy vehicles have to be prepared for rail transport. 48 hours is not a lot of time. Major Imm is an experienced soldier who has served on foreign missions in Mali and Kosovo. Now she has to ensure that the command in Poland will have a fully equipped workplace. Around 600 vehicles, including 70 tanks, are setting off from garrisons around Germany to head for Poland.
该地区没有什么异常情况需要报告，非常好。Major带领着大约250名士兵组成的一个团队。我们最大的挑战是要在48小时内准备好行动。我的士兵需要装载所有的卡车。卡车需要组成车队。我的重型车辆需要准备好铁路运输。48小时时间很短。Major Imm是一位经验丰富的士兵，在马里和科索沃执行过海外任务。现在她必须确保波兰指挥部有一个完全装备的工作场所。大约有600辆车，包括70辆坦克，从德国的驻地出发前往波兰。
The rapid response force is more important to NATO than ever. But today, at a time when Europe once again has to worry about security, how united are the partners in the alliance? Washington, April 2019. NATO celebrated the 70th anniversary of its founding. For seven decades, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has used its deterrence capability to protect peace, freedom and prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic.
快速反应力量对北约比以往任何时候都更加重要。但在如今欧洲再次需要担心安全的时候，这个联盟的合作伙伴们有多团结呢？2019年4月，华盛顿。北约庆祝其建立70周年。七十年来，北大西洋公约组织利用其威慑能力来保护大西洋两岸的和平、自由和繁荣。
A day before the ceremony, the West's leading defense and foreign policy officials gathered at a meeting. It was supposed to be a celebration of 70 years of NATO and transatlantic relations. But then, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence took to the podium to issue a rebuke. More of our allies are now meeting their commitments. It's still too many others are falling short. And as we all acknowledge, Germany is chief among them.
在庆祝北约和跨大西洋关系70周年之际的前一天，西方领先的国防和外交政策官员聚集在一起开会。本应该是一次庆祝活动，但美国副总统迈克·彭斯站上讲台发表了谴责言论。虽然现在有更多的盟友履行了承诺，但仍有太多人没有达到标准。正如我们所承认的那样，德国是其中的佼佼者。
Germany is Europe's largest and healthiest economy. It's a leading global exporter and is benefited from U.S. protection of Europe for generations. Germany must do more. A not-so-diplomatic attack on the alliance partner that has not invested the agreed 2% of its GDP in defense. The German Foreign Minister had to try to explain why his wealthy country wasn't prepared to spend more on European security. And know that our budgetary process is sometimes difficult for outsiders to understand and believe me and not just for them. However, we made firm commitments to invest more money and defense and we intend to keep our word. We in Europe know that we cannot take our security for granted.
德国是欧洲最大、最健康的经济体，是全球领先的出口国，并受益于美国对欧洲的保护几代人。德国必须做更多。对那些没有按照协议在国防上投入其国民生产总值的同盟伙伴进行了一次不那么外交的攻击。德国外交部长必须试图解释为什么他们这个富裕的国家不愿意在欧洲安全上投入更多的资金。我们的财政预算程序有时对外界来说很难理解，不仅仅是对他们而已。然而，我们已经承诺投入更多的资金和国防，我们打算信守承诺。我们在欧洲知道，我们不能把我们的安全视为理所当然。
A rather modest show of strength from the Foreign Minister, Haikomas left the meeting by the back door to avoid unwanted questions, a fitting image of Germany's appearance at the NATO summit. Germany has already promised its allies at three summits to raise military spending as agreed.
外交部长Haikomas展示了相对谨慎的实力，在避免不必要的提问时通过后门离开了会议现场，这也恰恰体现了德国在北约峰会上的形象。德国已经在三次峰会上承诺将按照约定增加军费支出以支持其盟友。
The defense ministry would like to see a hefty rise to 54.7 billion euros a year, but the finance ministry has other plans. Not even one spending to drop in the coming years, 244.2 billion.
国防部希望每年的支出能增加到高达54.7亿欧元，但财政部却有其他计划。未来几年的开支将不会下降，达到了2442亿欧元。
That corresponds to 1.23% of GDP, so even further below NATO's 2% target. Julian Smith was a security adviser in the Obama administration and is a prominent expert on German-American relations.
这相当于GDP的1.23%，所以甚至比北约的2%目标更低。Julian Smith曾在奥巴马政府担任安全顾问，是德美关系的知名专家。
I do think the NATO alliance has a Germany problem because now one of its largest allies is unwilling or unable to meet a commitment that essentially all allies made in 2014. This is not a situation where the Trump administration is fired up and frustrated with the German government.
我认为北约联盟面临着一个德国问题，因为现在它最大的盟友之一不愿或无法履行2014年所有盟友基本上都做出的承诺。这不是特朗普政府对德国政府感到激动和沮丧的情况。
We're now facing a situation where Democrats and Republicans alike are quite critical of Berlin and it's failure to meet that target. I understand that almost all politicians would like to spend money on something else than the defense. On health, on education, on infrastructure at the same time, we expect Germany to invest more in defense because we all promised to do so back in 2014.
我们现在面临的状况是，无论是民主党人还是共和党人，都非常批评柏林没有达成目标。我理解几乎所有的政治家都希望把钱花在其他方面，例如医疗、教育和基础设施上，但同时，我们希望德国在国防方面投入更多，因为我们在2014年都做了承诺。
But Germany's governing coalition of conservatives and social Democrats has a different take on the numbers. They say Germany has invested more than 30 billion euros in NATO since 2014, provided the second largest contingent of troops in Afghanistan, and taken part in many missions around the world.
然而德国的保守党和社民党联合政府对于这些数据有不同的看法。他们表示，自2014年以来，德国已经在北约上投入了超过300亿欧元的经费，为阿富汗提供了第二大兵力，并参与了世界许多地区的任务。
The social Democrats in particular oppose a sudden rise in the defense budget. Foreign and defense policy expert, Holf Mützin, he explains. We provide suitable personnel to NATO. We try to coordinate with our alliance partners and are guided by quality.
特别是社会民主党反对突然提高国防预算。外交和国防政策专家霍尔夫·穆特津解释说，我们为北约提供适当的人员。我们尝试与我们的联盟伙伴协调，并遵循质量准则。
And back when the German government accepted this 2 percent target, we in parliament said, ultimately, we, the lawmakers, are the ones who will decide what will be in the annual budget. Karl Massala, a professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, advises the government on security issues.
回到德国政府接受这个2%的目标的时候，我们在议会中说，最终，我们议员将决定年度预算中会有什么内容。卡尔·马萨拉是慕尼黑联邦国防军大学的教授，他向政府提供建议，涉及安全问题。
He says, economizing on military spending would be disastrous. It's not just grossly naive, it's negligent and risky. Here in Europe, we are currently in a situation where the Russian Federation with its armament efforts has an advantage in strategic escalation that we currently can't compete with.
他说，削减军费开支将是灾难性的。这不仅非常幼稚，而且也是疏忽和有风险的。在欧洲，我们目前处于俄罗斯联邦装备努力提高战略优势的情况下，而我们目前无法与其竞争。
Vladimir Putin's Russia has changed the world in terms of security policy. When the Cold War ended, it seemed unthinkable, but the world is now once again in the middle of an arms race. And Putin has been testing the limits of the NATO alliance with the conflict in eastern Ukraine, the Russian annexation of Crimea.
弗拉基米尔·普京领导的俄罗斯在安全政策方面改变了世界。冷战结束后，这似乎是不可想象的，但现在世界已经再次陷入了军备竞赛。普京通过东乌克兰冲突和俄罗斯吞并克里米亚来测试北约联盟的限制。
Russia, on the other hand, feels provoked by NATO's eastern enlargement plans. In April 2016, over the Baltic Sea, 130 kilometers from Kaliningrad, two Russian fighter jets carried out 20 mock attacks on a U.S. warship, and the number of provocations is increasing.
另一方面，俄国对北约东扩计划感到被挑衅。2016年4月，在距离加里宁格勒130公里的波罗的海上空，两架俄国战斗机对美国军舰进行了20次模拟攻击，挑衅行为不断增加。
There are threats that we have to address or challenges we have to address in the North Atlantic with increased Russian submarine activity and our lack of sensors up there to understand what's going on. There's definitely a threat stemming from Russia.
我们面临威胁，或者说在北大西洋遇到挑战，因为俄罗斯的潜艇活动越来越频繁，而我们缺乏足够的监测器来了解局势。明显地，来自俄罗斯的威胁是存在的。
NATO takes that threat very seriously. Its response has been, for example, the exercise in Poland with the brigades from Germany, Norway, and the Netherlands. Four days after the raising of the alarm in Munsta, the VJTF rapid response troops are on their way to the noble jump exercise.
北约非常认真对待这种威胁。例如，北约对来自德国、挪威和荷兰的旅进行在波兰的演习进行了回应。在Munsta警报后的四天，VJTF快速应答部队正在前往Noble Jump演习。
The more than 2,300 soldiers are being trained to ensure Europe's security under German leadership. Noble jump is basically all about NATO's rapid response troop. The task is deterrence through a show of strength.
这2000多名士兵正在接受培训，以确保德国领导下的欧洲安全。"尊贵跳跃"基本上是关于北约的快速反应部队。任务是通过展示实力来实现威慑。
But if at the end of the day that doesn't help, we have to clearly show that we are in a position to defend the territory of the alliance and of necessary to restore the territorial integrity of NATO. It's just after 4 o'clock in the morning. The 9th armored demonstration brigade positions itself.
但如果最终这并没有起到帮助的作用，我们必须明确地展示出我们有能力捍卫联盟的领土，并在必要时恢复北约的领土完整。现在是凌晨4点多，第9装甲示范旅开始部署阵势。
First Sergeant Major Hage Tim commands a leopard 2 tank. It weighs 64 tons and has a 1,500 horsepower engine. We're here on a leopard 2 battle tank. We have a crew of 4 men. This is my driver. He steers according to my orders. The gunner is responsible for the exchange of fire and the loader is responsible for all the weapons on the tank, including the machine guns.
海吉·蒂姆军士长指挥一辆豹2坦克，该坦克重64吨，拥有一台1500马力的发动机。我们在一辆豹2战斗坦克上。我们有一个4人的机组。这是我的司机，他按我的命令操纵方向。炮手负责火力交换，装填手负责坦克上所有武器，包括机枪。
I'm the commander. I coordinate everything. Final preparations for the maneuver. Take a tim at his crew. Take up battle position. OK, sight gunner. Swing the tower to the right. You've got woods on the right. Do you recognize? OK, swing more to the left. Right there you can see the observation center of the platoon.
我是指挥官。我协调一切。最后准备机动。看一下他的队员。采取战斗姿态。好的，瞄准手。把塔向右摇。你右边是树林，你认识吗？好的，再往左摇一些。就在那里，你可以看到排的观察中心。
The mission here is to retake a village. Even though no one wants to say it openly, the rapid response troop is supposed to deter Russia. Today, the enemy only consists of dummies and decommission tanks. Here on our left, my platoon is in position. Next to them is another platoon in position. Further ahead, in the left hand section, there's also a Norwegian company in position. They are already waiting for the shooting to start.
这里的任务是夺回一个村庄。虽然没有人公开说，但快速反应部队应该是为了遏制俄罗斯。今天，敌人只有些假人和退役坦克。在我们左侧，我的排在就位。旁边还有另一个排也在就位。更前方的左侧区域，也有一家挪威公司就位。他们已经在等待射击开始了。
We'll check Russia. We in landed ground militias. Hege Tim's tank platoon is one of NATO's elite units. It's a fully equipped brigade, which makes it quite an exception in the Bundeswehr. The military is supposed to have eight fully equipped brigades by the year 2031. But at the moment, not a single brigade is 100% ready for action. Even the VJTF troops had to borrow material from all over Germany. Everyone is realized that the way the system functions at the moment, that we had to bring material from throughout the Bundeswehr to Munster or other places to fulfill our mission, but that is not an acceptable state of affairs. This is not about build-up, but adequate equipment.
我们将调查俄罗斯。我们有地面民兵。海格·蒂姆的坦克连是北约的精锐部队之一，是一支装备完备的旅，这使它在联邦国防军中颇为特别。到2031年，军方应该拥有8个装备完备的旅，但目前没有一个旅是100%准备好行动的。即使是VJTF部队也不得不从德国各地借用装备。大家都意识到，目前的系统运作方式迫使我们从全德国各地调拨材料到明斯特或其他地方完成任务，但这种状态是不能被接受的。这不是关于军备建设，而是关于充足的装备。
Those eight brigades have to be fully equipped so that they can be just as ready for action as this brigade is. Fully equipping them will be costly, but Germany has made a binding commitment to NATO. The Army estimates that the price for a single brigade will amount to five billion euros. But in recent years, there has been practically no investment in material and equipment. And even with a lot of money, it will be hard to quickly rebuild all the structures that have been dismantled over the years. Let's get some of this. There are systems in the Bundeswehr that are older than I am. And we still have the problem that when we are deployed in major NATO exercises, we can meet our obligations, but it comes at the expense of operations and exercises back home. We no longer invested in large stocks of replacement parts, nor of ammunition. And now to fill up and modernize everything in the existing structures will take until 2031. We will definitely need that many years to get to the point where we can meet NATO and EU demands.
这八个旅必须完全装备齐备，以便他们能像这个旅一样随时准备行动。但是完全装备他们将非常昂贵，但德国已对北约做出了约束性承诺。军方估计单个旅的价格将达到50亿欧元。然而，近年来，在物资和装备方面几乎没有投资。即使有很多钱，也很难快速重建多年来拆除的所有结构。许多系统在德国联邦国防军中比我还要老。我们仍然面临一个问题，当我们参加重要的北约演习时，我们可以履行我们的义务，但这是以牺牲国内行动和演习为代价的。我们不再投资大量备件和弹药，现在要填补和现代化现有结构中的所有东西需要到2031年。我们绝对需要那么多年才能达到满足北约和欧盟要求的水平。
Sometimes, even a piece of fencing can stop 60 tons of military high-tech in its trucks. Tang commander Hege Tim is not happy with the situation. Go in there, turn the motor on, give a signal to the front, and then drive backwards a bit. Time is pressing. The tank crew has to get the vehicle back into position for the NATO exercise. The scenario that is being rehearsed here is chillingly realistic. The task of liberating a village symbolizes the fear of an invasion by enemy troops. Right here in Poland, in Europe. After five hours, the maneuver is completed for Hege Tim and his crew.
有时，即使是一块栅栏，也能阻止重达60吨的军事高科技卡车。唐指挥官赫格·提姆对此情况不满意。进去，开动发动机，给前方发信号，然后倒车一会儿。时间很紧迫。坦克机组必须将车辆重新放回北约演习的位置。在这里排练的情景非常真实可怕，解放一个村庄的任务象征着对敌军入侵的恐惧。就在波兰，就在欧洲。经过五个小时，赫格·提姆和他的机组完成了这次演习。
The commander is 32, his comrades are all under 30. The Cold War is something they only know from history books. When I joined up, the Bundeswehr was already involved in missions abroad, but now the threat is different. We see here that a completely battle ready brigade has been formed to engage in high-intensity combat if necessary. The idea of defending the alliance and their country is no longer entirely theoretical. Three quarters of a century after the end of World War II, that has become an imaginable scenario for German soldiers. I have been a soldier for 35 years. I saw the wall fall. I saw Europe being reunited. I experienced Islamist terrorists occupying half the Middle East. So at the end of the day, one thing counts for me. It doesn't matter who you're against. At the end of the day, there's only one thing that is lasting and forward-looking. And that's what you're for. And we are for freedom and peace, full stop.
指挥官今年32岁，他的战友都在30岁以下。冷战是他们只在历史书中了解的。我加入部队时，联邦国防军已经参与了境外任务，但现在威胁不同了。我们看到这里已经组建了一支完全准备好的旅，以参与必要的高强度战斗。捍卫联盟和自己的国家的想法不再完全是理论。75年二战结束后，这已成为德国士兵可以想象的情景。我是一名35年的士兵。我看到了墙的倒塌。我看到了欧洲的重聚。我见证了伊斯兰恐怖分子占领中东一半的领土。所以说，最后一刻，只有一件事对我很重要。无论你反对谁，最终只有一件事是持久和前瞻的。那就是你支持的事情。我们支持自由和和平，就这样。
Peace and freedom were the goals in the late 1980s when the US and the Soviet Union agreed to ban their land-based, intermediate-range nuclear missiles. US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev signed the INF Treaty in December 1987 in Washington. After decades of Cold War, it was a milestone in ending the arms race between the superpowers. In 2019, after accusing Russia of violating the treaty, the US formally pulled out of the INF. And the new start, a 2010 nuclear arms reduction treaty between the US and Russia, may not be extended when it expires in 2021. Does this herald a new nuclear arms race?
在20世纪80年代末期，和平与自由是美国和苏联禁止部署中程陆地导弹的目标。1987年12月，美国总统罗纳德·里根和苏联领袖密特·戈尔巴乔夫在华盛顿签署了《中导条约》。这一历史性的条约标志着超级大国结束冷战军备竞赛的里程碑。在指责俄罗斯违反条约后，美国于2019年正式退出《中导条约》。而5年后的2021年，美俄之间的另一项《新削减战略武器条约》到期时也可能无法延长。这是否预示着全新的核军备竞赛？
The INF Treaty can't be saved because neither of the parties to the agreement are still interested in saving it. The United States would only want to rescue it if it is globalized, meaning of China, India and Pakistan join. The Chinese have already made it clear that they see no reason to join it, and the Russians have violated it. In early 2019, Russia publicly unveiled its SSC-8 nuclear missile. The ground-launched cruise missile is claimed by US intelligence to have a range of over 2300 kilometers, which puts it in violation of the INF Treaty. The agreement bans the development and possession of ground-based missiles with a range of over 500 kilometers.
《中导条约》无法得救，因为协议的任何一方都不再有兴趣拯救它。只有在中国、印度和巴基斯坦加入之后，美国才会想要救援它。中国已经明确表示他们不想加入，而俄罗斯则违反了该条约。2019年初，俄罗斯公开展示了其SSC-8核导弹。这种地面发射的巡航导弹被美国情报机构称为具有超过2300公里的射程，这使它违反了《中导条约》。该协议禁止研发和拥有射程超过500公里的地面导弹。
For me, it's also a question of security for Germany, and end to the treaty would mean that we again enter a threat mechanism. That nuclear-medium-range weapons will again threaten areas extending to us in Western Europe. And that has to be urgently prevented. It's a crucial test for Europe.
对我来说，这也与德国的安全有关，结束条约意味着我们再次进入威胁机制。核中程武器会再次威胁扩散到我们在西欧的地区。这必须得到紧急阻止。这是欧洲的一个关键考验。
For some years, Poland has been calling for nuclear weapons, if necessary, going it alone with the US. Romania has invested billions of euros in US missile defense systems to protect it from a potential Russian threat. Is Vladimir Putin deliberately exploiting the current power vacuum and NATO's weakness to redefine his own role?
近年来，波兰一直呼吁必要时可以与美国一起独自拥有核武器。罗马尼亚已经投入数十亿欧元购买美国导弹防御系统以保护自己免受潜在的俄罗斯威胁。弗拉基米尔·普京是否有意利用当前的权力真空和北约的弱点来重新定义自己的角色？
He's definitely fanning the flames in Central Eastern Europe. So it's not that I lie awake at night and worry about some sort of conventional, military escalation with Russia. I think that's always the possibility, but that's not what worries me the most. What worries me the most is his efforts to divide us and undermine our values and our institutions that we've spent 70 years building. And he's succeeding on that front.
他明显是在中东欧煽风点火。所以我并不会翻来覆去、担心与俄罗斯之间会爆发常规军事升级的情况。我认为这种可能性永远都存在，但这不是我最担心的事情。我最担心的是他致力于分裂我们、破坏我们花了70年时间建立的价值观和制度。而他正在成功地实现这一点。
Russia is trying to destabilize the alliance and Western democracies. It influences elections and referendums, launches cyberattacks, and wants to bind individual NATO partners to it more closely. Does Putin see the end of the INF Treaty as a way of driving a further wedge between NATO partners? What is the aim of Russia's foreign and defense policy?
俄罗斯试图破坏联盟和西方民主国家的稳定。它影响选举和公投、发动网络攻击，并希望将单个北约成员国更紧密地绑定在它身上。普京认为《中导条约》的终结是进一步挑拨北约成员国之间分歧的一种方式吗？俄罗斯的外交和国防政策的目的是什么？
For years, journalist Alexander Gauls has been observing and analyzing the Russian military apparatus and Kremlin policy. He too finds Putin's motivation puzzling. Don't ask me about logical argumentation for these reasons, because this argumentation doesn't exist. But in Putin's mind and within Kremlin approach, NATO is planning aggression. You can name it paranoia. God knows.
多年来，记者亚历山大·高尔斯一直在观察和分析俄罗斯的军事机构和克里姆林宫政策。他也觉得普京的动机令人困惑。不要问我这些原因的逻辑论证，因为这种论证不存在。但在普京的思想和克里姆林宫的方法中，北约正在策划侵略。你可以称之为偏执狂。只有上帝知道。
Moscow sees itself as a victor of the military conflicts in Syria and Eastern Ukraine. The annexation of Crimea also set a dangerous precedent. Take what you want, you don't have to fear consequences. Russia is pure militaristic state.
莫斯科视自己为叙利亚和乌克兰东部军事冲突的胜利者。吞并克里米亚也树立了危险的先例。随意得到你想要的，不必担心后果。俄罗斯是一个纯粹的军事主义国家。
One of the main features of military state is that this state gives military answer to any challenge. I think Mr Putin, as well as Mr Trump, are very inspired by the idea to possess this overwhelming force, this overwhelming nuclear might. If I have this, I can do everything I want.
军事国家的主要特点之一是面对任何挑战都会采取军事解决方法。我认为普京先生和特朗普先生都很受激励，想要拥有压倒性的武装力量和核威力的想法。如果我有这种力量，我可以做我想做的一切。
Mediators are urgently needed. German Chancellor Angela Merkel could take on the role, but she's caught in the middle. In Germany, there is opposition to sanctions against Russia, while the US is calling for Berlin to take a tougher stance. German can't play the role of a negotiator, but we should keep in mind that according Mr Putin's mentality, German is not self-confident player. And indeed, the governing coalition has been sending out contradictory messages on foreign and security policy.
急需调解人。德国总理安格拉·默克尔可能担任这一角色，但她自己陷入了困境。在德国，有反对对俄罗斯实施制裁的声音，而美国则呼吁柏林采取更强硬的立场。德国无法担任调解人的角色，但我们应该记住，根据普京的思维方式，德国不是一个自信的角色。实际上，联合政府一直在外交和安全政策上发出矛盾的信号。
What should Germany's relationship with Russia be, a partnership, or a stronger rejection of the Kremlin's provocations? We discussed this in the Defense Committee before the parliamentary summer break. We have means of dialogues. We have points of contact between the Bundeswehr and the Russian military. There are policy talks on a ministerial level. The contacts are there, but we also clearly show that we expect the Russian side to abide by the Minsk Accords. In February 2015, the Minsk two Accords were signed by leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France, Germany, and Ukrainian separatists. The aim was to end armed fighting. It failed to hold.
德国应该与俄罗斯建立何种关系：伙伴关系，还是更强烈地对克里姆林宫的挑衅予以反对？我们在议会暑假前的国防委员会讨论过这个问题。我们有对话的方式，有联络点，德国联邦国防军与俄罗斯军方之间也有联系。在部长级别上存在政策性谈话。这些联络存在，但同时我们也要明确地表明，我们期望俄罗斯方面遵守明斯克协议。2015年2月，乌克兰、俄罗斯、法国、德国和乌克兰分裂分子领导人签署了明斯克二协议，旨在结束武装冲突，但未能实现。
And in the Baltic States, there is concern about a possible new Ukraine scenario. The narrow corridor between Poland and Lithuania with borders to the highly militarized Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus is NATO's Achilles heel. If the so-called Suwalki Gap were to be occupied by Russia, it would cut off the Baltic States from the rest of the EU.
在波罗的海国家，人们对可能出现一个新的乌克兰情景感到担忧。波兰和立陶宛之间的狭长通道，与高度军事化的俄罗斯前哨基地加里宁格勒和白俄罗斯有接壤，是北约的软肋。如果所谓的苏沃尔基缺口被俄罗斯占领，它将切断波罗的海国家与欧盟其他国家的联系。
The defenses on Lithuania's border with Belarus have been bolstered with millions of euros of EU funding. They include 300 cameras along the more than 650 kilometer-long border. Lithuanian border police Vadim Solovic and Ilona Sabah are on patrol. Security on NATO's outer borders is a police matter. The military can only approach within 5 kilometers of the border, so is not to further provoke the neighboring country.
立陶宛与白俄罗斯边境的防御已得到数百万欧元的欧盟资助加强，其中包括沿超过650公里长的边境设置了300个摄像头。立陶宛边境警察瓦迪姆·索洛维奇和伊洛娜·萨巴正在巡逻。北约外围安全是警方的事务，军方只能靠近边境5公里，以避免进一步激起邻国的敌意。
We are looking at other violations of border and also a legal immigration. This is an alarm because we are near to the surveillance system. I just mentioned that they could turn off because we can look. Now they are watching us. No move goes unobserved. The two sides watch each other suspiciously. Border security here is also security for NATO. The military alliance is less interested in smugglers and migrants than in provocateurs sent by the Kremlin, who might be entering to prepare or even trigger a conflict.
我们正在关注其他的边境违规行为和合法移民情况。这是一个警告，因为我们已经接近监视系统了。我刚才提到他们可能会关闭系统，因为我们可以观察。现在他们正在监视我们。没有任何行动会被忽视。双方互相怀疑地观察着对方。这里的边境安全也是北约的安全。这个军事联盟对于走私者和移民的关注比起克里姆林宫派遣的挑衅者进入这里准备甚至引发冲突来说，少得多。
Of course, the system helps in gathering information that could be of interest to our military, especially when military exercises take place in a neighboring state. That's definitely on the rise, more uniformed personnel on the border, and technical innovations.
当然，这个系统有助于收集信息，这些信息可能对我们的军队很有兴趣，特别是当军事演习在邻近的州进行时。边境上有越来越多的制服人员和技术创新，需要更多这样的信息。
As Western frontline states vis-à-vis their powerful neighbor, the Baltic countries followed Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 with a heightened sense of threats compared to other European countries. Having experienced decades of Soviet occupation, many Lithuanians have unpleasant memories of the Cold War era. I served on a submarine in Murmansk. I know their system. I know how they tick. They would take Ukraine, Lithuania, everything that was part of the former Soviet Union. Their influence extends the Belarus, which they can use for their military aims. They are stretching out the Belarus and Belarus is basically a land that they can use for their own military advancements and we see what happened in Ukraine and we don't want any of that here. We'd rather have tractors than tanks to farm the land, to give us bread, to serve the people, not these tanks. What are they good for?
西方前线国家与他们强大的邻国相比，波罗的海国家对于俄罗斯在2014年吞并克里米亚的威胁感比其他欧洲国家更加强烈。许多立陶宛人经历了苏联占领的几十年，对于冷战时期的不愉快记忆犹在心头。我曾在摩尔曼斯克的一个潜艇上服役。我了解他们的系统。我知道他们如何运作。他们会夺取乌克兰、立陶宛和前苏联的所有领土。他们的影响力延伸到了白俄罗斯，他们可以利用白俄罗斯来实现他们的军事目的。他们正在扩大对白俄罗斯的控制，而白俄罗斯基本上成了他们推进军事目标的土地。我们看到了乌克兰发生的事情，我们不希望这里发生任何类似的事情。我们宁愿用拖拉机来耕种土地、给我们带来面包，为人民服务，而不是这些坦克。这些坦克有什么用途？
NATO President Siddledvania is vital for it to survive and actually if we didn't have NATO soldiers, he would be wonderful. In the capital Vilnius, there is little to be seen of the 1000 NATO soldiers, but they are present in people's minds and their numbers are set to rise. We have already increased the Redness of our forces, tripled the size of the NATO Response Force. We are now implementing a new Red Initiative and Germany is part of that and this year leading the high redness force of NATO. This reflects that we are now in a total different security environment and we were the years after the end of the Cold War. But deterrence depends not only on troops and military equipment, but also on the enemy's belief that the alliance will stick together in an emergency.
北约主席辛德德维尔尼亚对北约的生存至关重要。如果没有北约士兵，他会感到非常惊讶。在首都维尔纽斯，几乎看不到北约的1000名士兵，但他们存在于人们的思想中，并且他们的数量正在不断增加。我们已经加强了军队的红色程度，将北约应对力量的规模增加了三倍。我们现在正在实施一个新的红色计划，德国是其中一部分，并且今年领导北约高级红色武装部队。这反映出我们现在处于完全不同的安全环境中，与冷战结束后的那些年不同。但威慑不仅取决于部队和军事装备，还取决于敌人相信联盟在紧急情况下能够团结一致。
The current U.S. President views international organizations as superfluous at best. His advisors seem to have difficulty preventing him from fundamentally questioning the alliance. I would caution Germans against assuming that it couldn't happen. I think it could happen. The fact that we recently saw a news break that certain members of the Pentagon and the State Department were tasked with looking into the possibility of giving Germany a bill for stationing U.S. troops to me indicates that that is a process that could lead to the United States at least distancing itself. American troops during an exercise in the Baltic, but how much longer will they be there? If worst comes to worst, would the Americans withdraw from NATO and would Europe then hold Berlin responsible and not Washington? He is basically using Germany as a whipping boy for the issue of the burden sharing in NATO. If the U.S. President says out loud that the U.S. is no longer interested in NATO, but the U.S. will not stand by its obligations under Article 5, then two parties are responsible, the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany. Article 5 of the NATO Treaty commits members to consider an armed attack against one member states to be an attack on all of them. Donald Trump has awakened doubts about his solidarity with the Alliance, and Russia is trying to divide NATO still further.
目前的美国总统认为国际组织在最好的情况下毫无必要。他的顾问似乎难以阻止他从根本上质疑联盟。我要警告德国人不要认为这种情况不可能发生。我认为这是可能发生的。最近我们看到新闻爆出五角大楼和国务院的某些成员被要求调查向德国要求驻扎美军费用的可能性，对我来说，这是一个可能导致美国至少疏远的过程。美国军队正在波罗的海附近进行演习，但他们还能留多久呢？如果最坏的情况发生，美国人会退出北约，欧洲会指责柏林而不是华盛顿吗？他基本上把德国作为北约分担负担问题的出气筒。如果美国总统公开表示美国不再关心北约，但美国不会履行根据第五条款的义务，那么责任将由美国和联邦德国共同承担。北约条约第五条款承诺成员国会将对一名成员国的武装攻击视为对所有成员国的攻击。唐纳德·特朗普唤起了人们对他与联盟团结的怀疑，俄罗斯正在尝试进一步分裂北约。
Turkey orients itself towards Moscow and has made an arms deal with Russia. Italy's government has been flirting with the West's greatest rival China. The giant country doesn't need an alliance, China plays its own game. China sees its autocratic political model as a blueprint for the world of tomorrow. The master plan by the leadership in Beijing aims to make China the first modern socialist global power by 2050. China's new Silk Road project is designed to revive the ancient trade routes across Central Asia and the Middle East to Europe. It's the biggest infrastructure investment program of all time, including high-speed railway lines. Deep water ports, gigantic tunnel and bridge projects, oil and gas pipelines, electricity grids and European harbors from Greece to Italy to Germany.
土耳其将其方向转向莫斯科并与俄罗斯达成了武器交易。意大利政府一直在与西方最大的竞争对手中国嬉皮笑脸。这个巨大的国家不需要联盟，中国展开自己的游戏。中国将其威权政治模式视为未来世界的蓝图。北京领导层的总体计划旨在使中国在2050年之前成为第一个现代社会主义全球强国。中国新的丝绸之路项目旨在复兴穿越中亚和中东通往欧洲的古老贸易路线。这是有史以来最大的基础设施投资计划，包括高速铁路线路、深水港口、巨型隧道和桥梁项目、石油和天然气管道、电力网络和来自希腊、意大利、德国的欧洲港口。
We must further facilitate and liberalize trade and investments and reject protectionism outright. China checks all the boxes. Obviously, we have military and security concerns about China, but we also have concerns about the political model that China is putting forward as an alternative to what the West has put its faith in for many, many, many decades.
我们必须进一步促进和自由化贸易和投资，并坚决拒绝保护主义。中国符合所有要求。显然，我们对中国存在军事和安全方面的担忧，但我们也对中国提出的替代西方长期信任的政治模式存在担忧。
Economic policy is also military policy. With the exception of the U.S., no country in the world spends as much on arms as China. In 2018, it amounted to some 142 billion euros. Our military must regard combat capability as the criterion to meet in all its work and focus on how to win when it is called on. We will take solid steps to ensure military preparedness for all strategic directions and make progress and combat readiness in both traditional and new security fields.
经济政策也是军事政策。除美国外，世界上没有任何国家像中国那样在军备方面投入如此之多。2018年，军费支出达到了约1420亿欧元。我们的军队必须将战斗能力作为其所有工作需要达到的标准，并集中精力研究如何在被召唤时获胜。我们将采取切实的措施，确保所有战略方向的军事准备，并在传统和新安全领域中取得进展和战备状态。
The Chinese president said very clearly at the 19th Party Congress that he wants a world-class military. He doesn't need a world-class military if it's just about Asia, if it's just about defending Chinese territory. He needs a world-class military if the scenario is a possible military escalation with the United States. China has gone on the offensive and is flexing its muscle. This martial footage is part of a promotional video from a Chinese arms manufacturer. It could almost have been shot in Hollywood.
中国主席在十九届党代会上非常明确地表示，他想要一个世界一流的军队。如果仅限于亚洲，保卫中国领土，那么他不需要世界一流的军队。但如果涉及可能的与美国的军事升级，他就需要世界一流的军队。中国已经开始进攻并展示其实力。这段武力宣传视频是来自中国的一家武器制造商。这几乎可以看作是在好莱坞拍摄的。
The message is clear. We are big, we are powerful, we take what we want. Taiwan is a primary focus of China's power play. The Chinese leadership wants reunification with what it sees as a breakaway province, and it's willing to take on Taiwan's protective power, the U.S. Now we're seeing the same problem with Taiwan that we discussed in reference to the Baltic states. Look at China, an 800-pound gorilla in Asia, and this tiny little bird, territory-speaking, that is Taiwan. What's the likelihood that the United States would go to war with China with the potential of a nuclear escalation to prevent this little bird from being taken by an 800-pound gorilla? Very unlikely.
信息很清晰。我们很强大，我们有实力，我们想要什么就取什么。台湾是中国权力游戏的主要焦点。中国领导想要与其看作是分裂省份的台湾实现统一，他们愿意挑战美国作为台湾的保护者。现在我们在台湾问题上遇到了与我们在波罗的海国家问题上讨论的相同问题。看看亚洲的800磅大猩猩中国和台湾这只微小的小鸟，在领土上。美国有多大可能会为了防止这只小鸟被这只800磅大猩猩所吞噬，而同中国发生战争并可能出现核升级？非常不可能。
So Taiwan could become one of the big conflicts in Asia in the future. Few experts doubt that China will try to pursue its plans for reunification with Taiwan. Beijing has not ruled out using military force to achieve that aim, and China is an increasing threat to the Western Alliance in other areas as well. Military aspects are becoming increasingly important in cyber technology. How great is the danger for Germany?
台湾未来可能成为亚洲大冲突之一。很少有专家怀疑中国会努力追求与台湾的统一计划。北京并没有排除使用军事力量实现这一目标，而中国在其他领域也越来越成为西方联盟的威胁。在网络技术中，军事方面变得越来越重要。德国存在多大的危险？
I think it's clear that China not only intends to become an economic world power, and of course we are concerned about this development. In the area of digitalization, we have the question of which Chinese companies we should allow to build up our infrastructure. I think there's a lot of sensitivity on the European and German side when it comes to dealings with China. The US warns of Chinese companies like Huawei and ZTE. They say their technology can be used by Beijing for espionage, and in fact the Chinese government can force companies to take part in espionage operations and sabotage European networks.
我认为很明显中国不仅打算成为一个经济世界大国，当然，我们对这个发展感到担忧。在数字化领域，我们有一个问题，就是应该允许哪些中国公司来建设我们的基础设施。我认为在与中国打交道的时候，欧洲和德国方面非常敏感。美国警告中国公司，比如华为和中兴，他们说他们的技术可以被北京用于间谍活动，实际上中国政府可以强迫公司参与间谍活动并破坏欧洲网络。
The US is not primarily a classical military threat, but it is a threat to our critical infrastructure as we call it. It's a threat to everyone, in that we are all exposed to hacker attacks without actually knowing where they are coming from. It was consequential and challenging in ways that it's hard people today to imagine. The Cold War had a whole host of challenges that we were facing, but we had essentially one adversary. We were looking at it through the lens of state-to-state conflict and through a conventional military lens.
美国不是一个典型的军事威胁，但是它是我们所谓的关键基础设施的威胁。它是对每个人的威胁，因为我们都暴露于不知道攻击来源的黑客攻击。这对我们造成了一些因果关系和挑战，人们今天很难想象。冷战有很多挑战我们面临，但我们本质上只有一个对手。我们是通过国家间冲突的镜头和传统的军事观来看待它的。
Now we've taken that and we've blossomed it, and so I think what worries me is that we're still operating in government structures and in institutions that were designed for a very different era. Is NATO ready to meet the new challenges? Does the Western Alliance system still guarantee security? The 70-year-old foundation, a foreign policy on both sides of the Atlantic, is showing more and more cracks. The one-time promise of shared values has been watered down. Europe's governments are trying to find the least common denominator.
现在我们已经把那个东西发扬光大了，但我认为让我担心的是我们仍然在为一个非常不同的时代设计的政府结构和机构中运作。北约准备好应对新的挑战了吗？西方联盟体系仍能保证安全吗？这个拥有70年历史的外交政策跨越大西洋两岸，在显示出越来越多的裂缝。曾经承诺的共同价值观已经削弱。欧洲各国政府正在寻找最不常见的共同点。
We have to make it clear in the alliance that we have an interest in approaching Russia and China with the support of the U.S. to say the world will be a safer place if we agree on a new, comparable arms control system. For that, we need to have the U.S. as a partner. As Europeans, we see ourselves as part of NATO as part of the Western Alliance, but we also want to make a stronger contribution to this alliance.
在联盟中，我们必须明确表达我们有意愿以美国的支持接近俄罗斯和中国，意味着如果我们在一个全新、可比较的武器控制系统上取得一致意见，世界将会变得更加安全。为此，我们需要美国作为合作伙伴。作为欧洲人，我们认为自己是北约和西方联盟的一部分，但我们也希望为这个联盟做出更大的贡献。
To remain trans-Iglanic, but become more European. But how would that work in practice? French President Emmanuel Macron dreams of a European army under French-Derman leadership. Could such a European army fill the power vacuum that would result if the U.S. pulled out of NATO? At the moment, the EU is politically and militarily a small entity on U.S. life support. If Europe starts to go alone, it will divide Europe from North America, but it will also divide Europe. So, to go alone is not good for the United States, is not good for Europe. To rule wars, to Cold War, the fight against terrorism, have thought of those that we need to stand together.
保持跨越英吉利海峡，但更欧洲化。但这在实践中如何实现呢？法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙梦想建立一个由法德领导的欧洲军队。如果美国退出北约，这种欧洲军队能填补由此产生的权力真空吗？目前，欧盟在政治和军事上是一个依赖于美国支持的小实体。如果欧洲开始独立行动，它将把欧洲与北美分开，但也将分裂欧洲。因此，单打独斗对美国和欧洲都不好。在战争、冷战、打击恐怖主义等问题上，我们需要团结一致。
I can't imagine Europe being able to guarantee its own security in the foreseeable future. We need the U.S. And when I look around the world, I can't see any power that is as close to us culturally and economically as the United States. That's why I think it's good for us to hold on to it. But the fact that we sometimes wrangle with the Americans that we sometimes have different points of view means that the Europeans have to get more involved and make a more effective contribution. Only then can we have a say. The new threats don't permit Europe to go it alone. NATO is being forced to stick together, as shown by the rapid reaction force.
我无法想象欧洲在可预见的未来能够保障自己的安全。我们需要美国。当我环顾世界时，我没有发现任何一个与我们在文化和经济上接近的强国，就像美国一样。这就是为什么我认为我们应该坚持与美国保持良好关系。但我们有时与美国人争吵，有时有不同的观点，这意味着欧洲人必须更加参与，做出更有效的贡献。只有这样，我们才能发表意见。新的威胁不允许欧洲独自行动。北约被迫保持团结，正如快速反应部队所示。
Tank commander Hege Tim's working day is coming to an end. He and his crew have been involved in this exercise for several weeks now. But they're not necessarily expecting an emergency. Of course, shooting exercises are different because the cardboard targets don't shoot back. But I know my training was so good that if I were facing a real tank, I'd react just as well. It's still an exercise, but the world has become more confusing.
坦克指挥官Hege Tim的工作日快结束了。他和他的团队已经参加了这个演习数周了。但是他们并没有预料到紧急情况。当然，射击演习是不同的，因为纸板靶子不会还击。但我知道我的训练非常好，如果我面对真正的坦克，我也能做出同样出色的表现。这仍然是一次演习，但世界变得更加混乱。
The old structures are fading. Germany will have to invest more and not just financially. To be a reliable partner, Germany will have to take responsibility and send soldiers on combat missions. The tasks are growing larger and becoming more dangerous.
老旧的结构正在消逝。德国将不仅仅需要在经济上进行更多的投资。为了成为可靠的伙伴，德国还将不得不承担责任，派遣士兵执行作战任务。任务正在变得越来越大，越来越危险。