Upstart 2023 Q1 Earnings Call
发布时间 2023-05-10 01:51:31 来源
Good day and welcome to the Upstart 1st Quarter 2023 earnings. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time I would like to turn the conference over to Jason Schmidt, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
大家好，欢迎来到Upstart2023年第一季度财报电话会议。本次会议正在录音中。现在，我想将会议交给投资者关系负责人Jason Schmidt。请开始。
意思是：此为Upstart公司2023年第一季度财报电话会议，会议现场进行录音。现在请投资者关系负责人Jason Schmidt主持会议。
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Upstart's 1st Quarter 2023 financial results. First of all, on today's call are Dave Gerard, Upstart's Chief Executive Officer and Sanjay Dota, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I want to remind you that shortly after the market closed today, Upstart issued a press release announcing its 1st quarter 2023 financial results and published an investor relations presentation. Both are available on our investor relations website, ir.upstart.com.
下午好，感谢大家参加今天的电话会议，讨论Upstart在2023年第一季度的财务业绩。首先介绍一下今天参加会议的人员，他们分别是Upstart的首席执行官Dave Gerard和首席财务官Sanjay Dota。在开始之前，我想提醒大家，今天股市收盘后不久，Upstart发布了一份新闻稿，宣布其2023年第一季度的财务业绩，并发布了一个投资者关系展示。这两个文件都可以在我们的投资者关系网站ir.upstart.com上找到。
In the call, we will make four looking statements, such as guidance for the 2nd quarter of 2023, related to our business and plans to expand our platform in the future. These statements are based on our current expectations and information available as of today and are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties and assumptions. Actual results made different materially as the results of various risk factors that have been described in our file ends with the SEC. As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these four looking statements. We assume no obligation to update any four looking statements as the result of new information or future events, except as required by law.
在这次通话中，我们将做出四个前瞻性声明，如有关2023年第二季度指引以及未来扩展平台的计划等，这些声明基于我们当前的预期和信息，但也受到各种风险、不确定性和假设的影响。实际结果可能因各种风险因素而有所不同，这些因素已在我们提交给SEC的文件中描述。因此，我们提醒您不要过度依赖这四个前瞻性声明。我们不承担更新任何前瞻性声明的义务，除非有法律要求或新信息和未来事件的影响。
In addition, during today's call, unless otherwise stated, references to our results are provided as non-gap financial measures and are reconciled to our gap results which can be found in the earnings release and supplemental tables. To ensure that we can address as many analyst questions as possible during the call, we request the E-Please-Leave-Ear-Self-2-1 initial question and one follow-up.
此外，在今天的电话会议中，除非另有说明，我们提供的业绩参考数据均为非GAAP财务数据，并已与我们的GAAP结果进行了调和，可以在收益公告和补充表中找到。为了确保我们可以在通话期间回答尽可能多的分析师问题，我们要求使用E-Please-Leave-Ear-Self-2-1进行初次提问和一个后续跟进问题。
意思是，本次电话会议中提到的业绩数据是非GAAP财务数据，并已与GAAP结果进行了调和。为了能够回答更多的分析师问题，每人只能提一个问题及一个跟进问题。
Later this quarter, UPSTAR will be participating in the Barclays Emerging Payments and FinTech Forum on May 17th and the Bank of America Global Technology Conference June 7th. Now, we'd like to turn it over to Dave Gerard, CEO of UPSTAR.
UPSTAR将于本季度晚些时候参加5月17日的巴克莱新兴支付和金融科技论坛以及6月7日的美国银行全球技术会议。现在，我们想把话题转交给UPSTAR的首席执行官Dave Gerard先生。 UPSTAR将参加两个会议并在其中发言。
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our own news call covering our first quarter, 2023 results. I'm Dave Gerard, co-founder and CEO of UPSTAR. Despite the headwinds facing our industry in early 2023, I'm pleased with the progress we made against the objectives that I set out for you previously. I'm hopeful that as we move through the year, you will come to see Q1 as a transitional quarter for UPSTAR. While the economic environment remains turbulent, there are many reasons to be optimistic about our future.
大家下午好。感谢您加入我们的新闻电话会议，报告我们2023年第一季度的业绩情况。我是UPSTAR的联合创始人和首席执行官Dave Gerard。虽然我们的行业在2023年初面临一些困境，但我对我们在我之前制定的目标方面所取得的进展感到满意。我希望随着我们逐步进入今年，您将认为UPSTAR的第一季度是一个过渡性季度。尽管经济环境仍然动荡不定，但我们有很多理由对未来持乐观态度。
After you, we aren't waiting around for the economy to improve. First, our development teams made giant leaps forward in each of our main product areas. Innovation in AI is the primary source of UPSTAR's competitive advantage. We continue to break new ground in this area. I'll share more about these wins shortly.
在你离开之后，我们并不等待经济的改善。首先，我们的开发团队在我们的主要产品领域都有了巨大的进步。人工智能的创新是UPSTAR竞争优势的主要来源。我们在这一领域继续开拓新的领域。很快我会分享更多关于这些胜利的细节。
Second, we accomplished this while taking significant fixed costs out of our business. Last quarter, I told you that I'm committed to running an operationally and fiscally-tice ship. Given our concerted efforts in Q1 to reduce both payroll and operational expenses, I'm confident that UPSTAR is now a more streamlined and efficient company, setting us up to return to profitable growth soon. I'll share more about our cost reduction efforts later.
其次，我们在大幅缩减固定成本的同时实现了这一目标。上一季度，我告诉大家我致力于运营和财务实力的管理。鉴于我们在第一季度的协调努力，成功缩减了工资和运营开支，我有信心UPSTAR现在是一个更加精简高效的公司，为我们很快实现盈利增长打下了基础。稍后我会分享更多关于我们成本削减方面的努力。
And finally, I'm pleased to tell you that we secured multiple long-term funding agreements together expected to deliver more than $2 billion to the UPSTAR platform over the next 12 months. This is a critical first step toward building resiliency and predictability into our business. Together, I believe these efforts put us in a stronger position, regardless of which direction the economy turns.
最后，我很高兴地告诉你，我们一起获得了多个长期资金协议，预计在接下来的12个月内向UPSTAR平台提供超过20亿美元的资金。这是在我们业务中建立弹性和可预测性的关键第一步。我相信这些努力可以让我们处于更强的位置，无论经济走向何方。
Our own analysis, which we launched publicly in March in the form of the UPSTAR macroindex or UMI, suggests that the financial help of the mainstream American consumer deteriorated rapidly through the first nine or so months of 2022, but it since stabilized if not improved for the last several months. The personal savings rate, which may be the most relevant predictor of UMI, bottomed out mid-last year at 2.7 percent and has increased to 5.1 percent since then.
我们自己的研究分析，以UPSTAR宏观指数或UMI的形式于三月份公开发布，表明美国主流消费者的财务状况在2022年头九个月内迅速恶化，但自此之后已经在过去几个月稳定甚至有所改善。个人储蓄率可能是UMI最相关的预测指标，去年年中触底2.7%，自那以后增长至5.1%。
In late 2022, loans on our platform have been priced conservatively relative to UMI. So, our bank and credit union partners can feel confident that recent ventages are today performing at or above expectations. And while banks are certainly trading carefully in the current environment, many lenders in institutional investors appreciate the combination of high yield and short duration that UPSTAR powered loans offer.
到2022年年末，我们平台上的贷款在相对于UMI定价时保守。因此，我们的银行和信用合作社伙伴可以放心，最近的投资表现符合或高于预期。虽然银行当然在当前环境下要谨慎交易，但许多机构投资者和放贷人都欣赏UPSTAR提供的高收益和短期间的组合。
In retrospective of the environment, I push our team very hard to make sure UPSTAR improves constantly in four critical dimensions.
回顾环境的情况，我非常努力地推动我们的团队，确保UPSTAR在四个关键方面不断改进。
First, best rates for all. We found it up to dark to improve access to credit, so delivering the best rates possible to all consumers will always be our true north. Given the breadth and diversity of competition, we'll never 100 percent achieve this goal, but in a fierce effort to do so, we can become the market leader in a vitally important segment of our economy.
首先，为所有人提供最佳利率。我们认为改善信贷准入在黑暗中变得复杂，因此向所有消费者提供最佳利率将永远是我们的真正方向。鉴于竞争的广泛和多样性，我们永远不会百分之百地实现这个目标，但为了努力达成它，我们可以成为我们经济中一个至关重要的领域的市场领导者。
Better rates are unlocked first and foremost by a more accurate and predictive credit model, one that excels at separating good risk from bad, and AI is the key to this.
更准确和可预测的信用评估模型是解锁更优惠的利率的首要条件，它在区分好的风险和坏的风险方面表现出色，而人工智能是实现这一目标的关键。
Our models are today trained on more than 100 billion cells of performance data. And now, with an average of 90,000 new loan repayments do each day across all our bank partners, the system is learning and adjusting in near real time to actual loan performance. We pushed 23 new and improved versions of our AI models into production during the first quarter alone, about one every three days. We're confident that our AI has never been as sophisticated or as accurate as it is today.
我们的模型现在已经通过1000亿个性能数据进行了训练。现在，我们所有合作银行每天平均处理的还款有9万笔，系统能够接受实时贷款表现的信息来进行学习和调整。仅在第一季度，我们就推出了23个新版本的AI模型，平均每三天一个版本。我们非常自信，我们的AI从未像今天这样精密和准确。
But in order to deliver the best rates for all, we also need a diversity of bank and credit union partners, each with different priorities, business objectives, and balance sheet issues to solve. Today, we have almost 100 such partners in order of magnitude more than the 10 we had when we went public in December 2020. We additionally need a strong presence and reputation in institutional and capital markets, because the limited risk appetite of bank balance sheets will never serve the needs of the entire US credit market. This quarter, we expanded our roster of institutional partners in ways that should help us deliver quality offers to consumers through all parts of the cycle.
然而，为了为所有人提供最佳利率，我们还需要多样化的银行和信用联盟合作伙伴，每个合作伙伴具有不同的优先事项、业务目标和需要解决的资产负债表问题。如今，我们拥有近100家这样的合作伙伴，比2020年12月我们上市时的10家多得多。此外，我们还需要在机构和资本市场上具有强大的存在感和声誉，因为银行资产负债表的有限风险承受能力永远无法满足整个美国信贷市场的需求。本季度，我们以多种方式扩大了机构合作伙伴的名单，这应该有助于我们在整个周期的各个阶段向消费者提供优质的报价。
Second, more efficient borrowing and lending. Every quarter, we aim to make our platform more efficient for consumers and bank partners. This improvement comes from better AI, which enables more sophisticated risk models, which in turn, enable a faster and more efficient experience for consumers and lenders.
其次，更高效的借贷。我们定期努力提升平台的效率，为消费者和银行合作伙伴提供更好的服务。这一进步来自于更好的人工智能技术，使我们能够使用更复杂的风险模型，从而为消费者和出借人提供更快速、高效的体验。
In the first quarter, we achieved a record level of automation with 84% of upstart powered loans fully automated across all our bank partners. By this, I mean the loans were approved and verified instantly with zero human intervention from rate requests to loan funding. We know of no other lending marketplace with this level of automation.
在第一季度中，我们实现了自动化水平的记录，我们的所有银行合作伙伴中，84%的“起步”贷款完全自动化。我指的是，从利率请求到贷款资金的批准和验证都是瞬间完成的，没有任何人为干预。我们不知道有哪个贷款市场拥有这种自动化水平。
This instant and automated process, which by the way 70% of consumers access by a mobile phone, creates an unparalleled while moment for the borrower, which is who is often surprised if not shocked to realize that there are no more steps in the approval process. With consumers rightfully value their time, this delightful moment is often more impactful than the specific rate our bank partners offer. Efficiency is obviously important for the lender as well.
这是一个即时的自动化过程，70%的消费者使用手机进行访问，这为借款人创造了无与伦比的瞬间体验。借款人往往会感到惊讶，甚至震惊，因为批准流程已经没有更多的步骤了。考虑到消费者合理地珍视自己的时间，这个美妙的时刻往往比我们银行合作伙伴提供的具体利率更有影响力。效率对于贷方也同样重要。
Our bank partners upstart powered lending programs are open for business 24 hours a day, seven days a week. In addition to providing the modern, all digital experience their customers expect, banks can tailor their upstart lending programs to precisely target their business objectives, risk appetite, and balance sheet needs. When it comes to routine transactions like offering a loan, branch hours are inconvenient. Human intervention is costly and consumers just want what they want when they want it.
我们与Upstart合作的银行贷款计划已经全天候、七天24小时开放。除了提供客户期待的现代、全数字化的体验之外，银行还可以根据自己的业务目标、风险偏好和资产负债表需求量身定制Upstart贷款计划。当涉及到像贷款这样的常规交易时，分行的营业时间不便。人工干预成本高昂，消费者只想在需要的时候得到他们想要的东西。
Third, more resilient. After all, we have experienced in the last year, I'm keenly aware that we need to build more resilience into upstart the business. Lending is inherently cyclical, but we aim to build a platform that largely mitigates that cyclicality, ensuring that credit continues to be available and flowing when it's needed, albeit accurately priced to prevailing conditions.
接下来，更具有弹性。毕竟，去年我们经历了很多，我深刻意识到我们需要在创业过程中增强更多的弹性。借贷业务本质上是周期性的，但我们的目标是建立一个平台，大大减轻这种周期性的影响，确保信贷在需要时仍然是可用和流畅的，尽管价格应以当前情况为准。
Central to this resilience is securing a baseline supply of long-term capital that we can depend on through the markets, ups, and downs. As I mentioned earlier, we've completed agreements with multiple strategic partners as of today, and will continue to explore additional partnerships. Our primary goal is to have loan funding capital committed at a level that allows us to remain cash flow positive to typical market cycles. Resilience also comes from a flexible business model, with lower fixed costs, proven pricing power, and durable unit economics.
这种弹性的核心是确保我们通过市场、波动等情况可以依赖的长期资本的基础供应。正如我之前提到的，我们已经与多个战略伙伴签订了协议，并将继续探索其他伙伴关系。我们的主要目标是确保贷款资金的承诺水平，使我们能够在典型市场周期中保持现金流的积极性。弹性还来自于灵活的商业模式，低固定成本、成熟的定价能力和持久的单位经济效益。
We've always been a capital-efficient business, raising and spending a fraction of what peer companies spend, but there are always more ways to drive efficiency. Between Q4 and Q1, we took the necessary steps to reduce upstart headcount by almost 30 percent, while clearly a gut-wrenching decision will allow us to return to profitability at a significantly lower loan volume and has led us to be more focused and nimble in delivering our product roadmap.
我们一直是一家以资本效率为中心的企业，筹集和支出只占同类公司的一小部分，但是还有更多的方法可以提高效率。在第四季度和第一季度之间，我们采取了必要的步骤，将公司员工数量削减了近30%，虽然这是一个非常痛苦的决定，但我们可以通过这种方式在更低的贷款额度下实现盈利，并且让我们更加专注和灵活地交付我们的产品路线图。
We also identified opportunities to reduce our technical infrastructure costs by as much as $10 million annually and sublet some unnecessary office space, both of which will go directly to the bottom line. On the revenue side, we flexed up our cake rates, delivering a record contribution margin of 58 percent in Q1. Our prior record contribution margin was 54 percent in Q3 of 2020. Our strong and flexible unit economics are a byproduct of the competitive advantage provided by AI. All these together position as well to navigate whatever twists and turns lie ahead, while strengthening our position for the inevitable sunnier markets to come.
我们还发现了机会，可以每年将我们的技术基础设施成本降低高达1000万美元，并转租一些不必要的办公空间，这些都将直接反映在我们的底线上。在收入方面，我们加强了蛋糕价格，第一季度贡献利润率创下了58%的历史新高。我们之前的最高贡献利润率是2020年第三季度的54%。我们强大而灵活的单元经济效益是人工智能为我们带来的竞争优势的副产品。这些都将使我们更好地应对未来可能出现的曲折和转折，同时加强我们在必然会到来的市场中的地位。
The last important lever on resiliency is our product offering itself, which I'll speak to now, a broader range of products. Moving beyond our core personal loan product is critically important to reaching our potential as a business. Offering a wider range of solutions makes us more relevant to more consumers and also more valuable to our bank and credit union partners. Product to Embarrow or diversification can also provide greater resilience to future market cycles.
弹性的最后一个重要杠杆是我们的产品服务本身，现在我会谈论它——采用更广泛的产品服务。超越我们的核心个人贷款产品对于实现我们企业潜力至关重要。提供更广泛的解决方案使我们对更多消费者更有意义，也使我们对我们的银行和信用合作社伙伴更有价值。产品多元化也可以为未来市场周期提供更大的弹性。
We continue to make progress in our second big bet, the auto lending market. This market has had what may be the most tumultuous three years in its 100 plus years history. Despite this, we've made rapid progress with our products and couldn't be more excited about our potential. Since our last earnings call, we announced that both Accura and Mercedes-Benz approved upstart as a digital retail provider, becoming our eighth and ninth OEM partners. We recently launched a new and improved AI model for our auto retail lending product that builds off our existing auto refinance model. We now consider both of these models calibrated and performing on target. Our footprint of dealers piloting our lending product expanded to 39 since last I updated you and we expect this rollout to continue throughout the year. We also signed our first external funding agreement for auto retail, which is an important milestone for us. And lastly, we're making rapid improvements to our servicing and collections of auto loans, which accrues directly to model performance.
我们在我们的第二大赌注——汽车贷款市场中继续取得进展。该市场经历了可能是其100多年历史中最动荡的三年。尽管如此，我们的产品取得了快速进展，并对我们的潜力感到非常激动。自上次收益电话以来，我们宣布Accura和Mercedes-Benz均将Upstart批准为数字零售提供商，成为我们的第八和第九个OEM合作伙伴。我们最近推出了一种新的、改进的AI模型，用于我们现有的汽车再融资模型的汽车零售贷款产品。我们现在认为这两个模型都是校准好的，并且在目标上表现良好。我们的贷款产品的试点经销商网络增加到了39家，我们预计这个推广将在今年继续进行。我们还签订了我们的第一个汽车零售外部资金协议，这对我们来说是一个重要的里程碑。最后，我们正在迅速改进我们的汽车贷款服务和收账，这直接导致了模型的表现。
I'm also pleased to let you know that we expect to launch a home equity product later this year. This is a great fit for upstart for a few reasons. First, 95% of Helox are financed by banks and credit unions. So to asset our lending partners know and value. Second, Helox naturally serve a very prime consumer, namely homeowners. Respect upstart Helox to have animal loss rates less than 1%. And third, home equity products tend to be counter-sickical to refinance products. We know this because in Q4 2022, Helox volumes from a 32% year on year, even while mortgage refinance is plummeted. Importantly, there's a lot of opportunity to improve the process of originating Helox. The average Helox today takes 36 days to fund. While we're aiming for online approval in 10 minutes and funding within five days.
我也很高兴地告诉你们，今年晚些时候我们预计将推出一种房屋净值产品。这对Upstart来说非常适合，原因有几个。首先，95%的Helox由银行和信用合作社贷款提供。这表明我们的贷款合作伙伴了解和重视Helox。第二，Helox自然为房主提供优质的服务。Upstart的Helox损失率低于1%。第三，家庭净值产品往往与再融资产品相反。我们知道这是因为在2022年第四季度，Helox的规模同比增长了32%，而抵押贷款再融资却急剧下降。重要的是，有很多机会来改善发起Helox的流程。今天平均需要36天才能获得Helox。而我们的目标是在线批准10分钟，5天内拨款。
Lastly, I have to mention the incredible progress made they are a small dollar loan team. By way of context, banks feel pressure from regulators to eradicate overdraft fees and instead to provide affordable relief loans to consumers who have short-term cash needs. But they've struggled for years to do this both meaningfully and profitably. Short-term loans of a few hundred dollars to existing customers or even to random walk-up consumers at rates within the APR limits for nationally charted banks has seen beyond the reach of the banking industry. While we're building it for them, and we believe it has the potential to eradicate more than 70% of payday loans in the next five years, our small dollar product already has 90% automation rates, far beyond even our core personal loan product. In Q1, we launched a new AI model for this product that delivered the largest single accuracy improvement measured in our history. We've also expanded the offering to include loan terms as short as three months, which show a 37% increase in approval rates. I'm not sure we've ever delivered a product with as much impact and as much alignment with our mission as we're seeing from the small dollar team.
最后，我不得不提到这支小额贷款团队所取得的惊人进步。为了了解背景，银行承受着监管机构的压力，要消除透支费用，提供负担得起的短期现金需求救济贷款给消费者。但他们多年来在有意义的和有利可图的方面一直在努力。短期贷款给现有客户或随机走上门的消费者，利率在全国银行的年利率限制之内，这已经超出了银行业的范畴。而我们正在为他们构建这个产品，我们相信未来五年我们的小额贷款产品有望消除70%以上的发薪日贷款，我们的小额贷款产品已经有了90%的自动化率，远远超出我们核心个人贷款产品。在第一季度，我们为这个产品推出了一个新的人工智能模型，实现了我们历史上最大的单项准确性提高。我们还将其扩展到短至三个月的贷款期限，这显示出37%的批准率提高。我不确定我们以前是否推出过具有如此大的影响力和与我们使命的契合度如此高的产品，正如我们从小额贷款团队中看到的那样。
To wrap things up, I want to acknowledge that the financial industry is not out of the widget, but even in this challenging economy, I believe Upstart isn't positioned to grow reasonably through our typical run rate of model and technology improvements. And when the banking and credit markets eventually normalize, as surely they will, the two strength of our platform will become clear to all. Upstart success will continue to be built on excellence and leadership in AI. By this, I mean the speed with which we can develop, deploy and calibrate new and more accurate AI models. Together with the amazing quality of our team, it is this that makes me optimistic about Upstart's future.
总结一下，我想承认金融行业还在努力应对困难，但即使在这样具有挑战性的经济环境下，我相信Upstart仍然能够通过我们传统的模型和技术改进的平稳增长来实现发展。当银行和信贷市场最终恢复正常，如它们肯定会做到的，我们平台的两大优点将变得清晰明了。Upstart的成功将继续建立在人工智能的卓越表现和领导力上，这意味着我们能够快速开发、部署和校准新的更准确的人工智能模型。加上我们团队的卓越质量，这让我对Upstart的未来充满信心。
Thank you. And I'd like now to turn it over to Sanjay, our chief financial officer, walk through our Q-R in 2023 financial results and guidance.
谢谢。现在我想把话题转给我们的首席财务官Sanjay，他将带领我们走过2023财年财务业绩和预测。
Sanjay. Thanks, Dave. And thanks to all of you for joining us today. At a headline level, over the past quarter, we've observed continuing stability and consumer repayment trends on the borrower side of our platform, counterbalanced by heightened volatility in the banking and institutional funding markets.
感谢大家今天的参加。总体来说，在过去的季度中，我们的借款人端持续稳定并且还款趋势良好，但在银行和机构融资市场方面，我们观察到了更加明显的波动。
In US consumer personal finance, a couple of virtuous trends continue to unfold in the aggregate statistics. The percent of adults participating in the workforce continues to climb steadily as a population returns to work. And the average personal tax burden for each individual has fallen considerably since last year. Together leading to a rising level of real disposable income per adult.
在美国消费者个人财务领域，有几个良好的趋势继续在总体统计数据中展现。参与劳动力的成年人比例不断上升，因为人口回归工作。而每个人的平均个人税负自去年以来已大幅下降。这些趋势共同导致每个成年人的实际可支配收入水平不断上升。
On the expenditure side, real consumption per capita continues to moderate and creep back into line with disposable income. Rising disposable income and moderating consumption expenditures are resulting in a personal savings rate that has now risen in each of the past six months since bottoming out last September. This particular indicator has demonstrated a strong correlation to borrower repayment health since the pandemic. And we are seeing this reflected in our upstart macro index, which peaked last October and is showing signs of early recovery.
在支出方面，人均实际消费继续减缓，并逐渐回归可支配收入水平。可支配收入的增长和消费支出的减缓导致个人储蓄率自去年9月份见底以来已经连续六个月上涨。这一特定指标已经表明自疫情爆发以来，与借款人偿还健康状况存在强相关性。我们在新兴的宏观指数中看到了这种反映，该指数在去年10月份达到了峰值，现正在显示早期恢复的迹象。
The ongoing improvement in the consumer fiscal condition, together with the recalibration of our own underwriting models, is resulting in loan performance that as of our Q4 advantages, we believe is on track to deliver unleveraged close returns of approximately 11 percent as a blended average across the banks, credit unions, and institutional buyers on our platform.
随着消费者财务状况的不断改善，以及我们自己的贷款核准模型的重新校准，我们相信我们在第四季度取得的贷款表现将使得我们的平台在银行、信用合作社和机构买家中实现未杠杆化收益率约为11%(混合平均值)的目标。
Conversely, the funding side of the ecosystem remains challenging in the current climate. Increased conservatism among existing lending partners in the wake of their recent bank failures has enhanced their headwinds, even as we have brought additional volume onto the platform for implementation of new bank partnerships. The banking sector turbulence has also contributed to wider market spreads on high yield debt after a brief period of moderation in January and February, which is in turn causing institutional investors who rely on functioning ABS markets to be increasingly cautious in their deployment of capital.
相反，在当前的环境下，生态系统的资金方面仍然具有挑战性。近期银行破产事件加剧了现有贷款合作伙伴的保守态度，即使我们已经增加了平台上的资金流量来实现新银行的合作关系。银行业动荡也导致了高收益债务的更广泛市场利差，在一月和二月短暂的调整期之后，这进一步导致依赖运作良好的ABS市场的机构投资者在资本的布置上变得越来越谨慎。
We have managed to more than offset these headwinds by securing multiple longer term funding agreements, which we expect to deliver more than $2 billion in capital over the coming 12 months. We believe that these deals, as well as others in the pipeline, will provide us with a stronger and more resilient capital supply over the coming quarters.
我们已经通过获得多个长期融资协议来成功地抵消了这些压力，并预计在接下来的12个月内提供超过20亿美元的资本。我们相信，这些交易以及其他正在进行中的交易将为我们在未来几个季度提供更强大和更具弹性的资本供应。
With these items of context, here are some financial highlights from the first quarter of 2023. New from fees was $117 million in Q1, coming in above our guided expectation as a result of some increased funding secured through our longer term capital arrangements, as well as ongoing take rate optimization.
以下是关于 2023 年第一季度的一些财务亮点，结合这些背景信息。Q1 的新收费额为 1.17 亿美元，超出我们的预期，这是由于我们通过长期资本安排获得了更多的资金，并且持续进行费率优化所致。
Net interest income was slightly below guidance at negative $14 million, largely a result of unrealized fair value adjustments informed by the economics of a balance sheet transaction that was expected to close after the end of the quarter. Taken together, net revenue for Q1 came in at $103 million, slightly above guidance, and representing a 67% contraction year over year.
净利息收入少于预期，为负1,400万美元，主要是由于预计在季末关闭的资产负债表交易经济学信息所影响的未实现公允价值调整所致。综合考虑，第一季度的净收入为1.03亿美元，略高于预期，但同比萎缩67%。
The volume of loan transactions across our platform in Q1 was approximately 84,000 loans, down 82% year over year, and representing over 53,000 new borrowers. Which loan size of $12,000 was up 22% versus the same period last year.
在我们的平台上，第一季度贷款交易量约为84,000笔，同比下降了82%，代表超过53,000名新借款人。 $12,000的贷款金额比去年同期增长了22%。
Our contribution margin, a non-gap metric which we define as revenue from fees, minus variable costs for borrower acquisition, verification, and servicing, as a percentage of revenue from fees, came in at 58% in Q1, up from 47% last year, and 3% points above our guided expectation for the quarter.
我们的贡献率是一个非公认指标，定义为从费用中获得的收入减去借款人获取、验证和服务的可变成本，作为收入的百分比。第一季度，我们的贡献率为58%，较去年的47%高，比本季度的指导预期高了3%。这表明我们在不断提高业绩和效率方面取得了进展。
We continued expanding our margins in Q1 through higher rates of automation, which attained a peak of 84%, improved marketing efficiency, and increased take rates.
我们在第一季度继续扩大我们的利润率，通过更高的自动化率（达到了84%的峰值），提高了市场营销效率和增加了接单率。
Operating expenses were $235 million in Q1, down 15% year over year, but up 14% sequentially due to one time restructuring costs incurred as part of our reduction in force, as well as a one-time non-cast charge resulting from the cancellation of a single executive performance based equity award, which accounted for approximately $40 million of the overall expense space in this past quarter. The majority of the year over year reduction was achieved through sales and marketing, which declined by 76% following the trend in volume. We continued to limit hiring to only a handful of key strategic positions.
第一季度，我们的运营费用为2.35亿美元，同比下降15%，但环比增长14%。其中包括一次性的重组成本，以及一次性不计入成本的费用，由于取消了一位高管的股权激励计划，该费用占据了该季度总费用的约4000万美元。过去一年中，销售和营销依照销售量的趋势下降了76%。我们继续控制聘用人数，只招聘关键战略职位的少数员工。现在，我们主要凭借销售和资本支出的削减来降低成本。
Altogether, Q1 gap net loss was $129 million, and adjusted EBITDAW was negative $31.1 million, both comfortably above our guided numbers. Adjusted earnings per share was negative 47 cents based on a deleted weighted average share count of $81.9 million. We ended the quarter with loans on our balance sheet at $982 million, down sequentially from $1.01 billion to the prior quarter. Of that total, loans made for the purposes of R&D, principally within the auto segment, represented $493 million of that total. A corporate liquidity position remains strong, with $452 million of total cash on the balance sheet and approximately $632 million in net loan equity as fair value.
总的来说，第一季度的净亏损为1.29亿美元，调整后的EBITDAW为负3,110万美元，均远高于我们的预估数字。每股调整后的收益为47美分，基于已删除的81.9万股加权平均股份计算而得。我们的贷款余额表现良好，本季度结束时为9.82亿美元，相对于上一个季度的101亿美元略有下降。其中，主要用于汽车领域研发的贷款总额为4.93亿美元。企业的流动性状况仍然非常强劲，资产负债表上的总现金为4.52亿美元，公允价值的净贷款资产大约为6.32亿美元。
In our remarks of last quarter, we expressed optimism that the consumer trends impacting credit appeared positive to us, and that the worst was likely behind us. And this is indeed what we have perceived over the last 90 days. Consumers reducing expenditures indicates to us that they are overspending less relative to income. Decreasing numbers of job openings in the economy indicates to us that Americans are returning to work. Now both of these dynamics could be interpreted as a prelude to economic slowdown. It is clear to us that both have been beneficial for credit. This continues to be our perspective as we look to Q2.
在上一个季度的评论中，我们表达了对影响信用的消费趋势持乐观态度，并认为最坏的时期可能已经过去。在过去的90天里，我们确实注意到了这一点。消费者减少支出说明相对于收入，他们的超支减少了。经济中职位空缺的减少说明美国人正在回归工作。这两种动态都可以解释为经济放缓的前兆。对我们来说，这两种趋势在信用方面都有益。当我们展望第二季度时，这依然是我们的观点。
We also expressed confidence last quarter that through a combination of margin expansion, workforce reduction, and expenditure control, we could create a path to return to EBITDA break even at our current lower scale. And indeed, we now anticipate achieving this in the second quarter. While painful, the workforce reduction was carried out with minimal impact to the velocity at which we are developing our newest round of bets in auto lending, small dollar loans, and HELOX, all areas in which we look forward to sharing more updates in the coming quarters.
上个季度，我们也表达了信心，相信通过提高利润率、减少工作人员和控制支出的综合措施，我们可以在当前较低规模的情况下创建一条返回EBITDA保本的道路。事实证明，我们现在预计在第二季度实现这一点。尽管有些痛苦，但员工减少对我们在汽车贷款、小额贷款和HELOX等领域中开展最新投入的速度几乎没有影响，这些都是我们期待在未来几个季度中分享更多更新的领域。
With these specifics in mind, for Q2 of 2023, we expect total revenues of approximately $135 million, consisting of revenue from fees of $130 million, and net interest income of approximately $5 million. Contribution margin of approximately 60 percent, net income of approximately negative $40 million, adjusted net income of approximately negative $7 million, adjusted EBITDA of approximately 0, and a deleted weighted average share count of approximately 83.1 million shares. We are happy to be signaling a return to sequential growth and cash profitability in the current market environment.
考虑到这些具体因素，我们预计到2023年Q2的总收入约为1.35亿美元，其中收费收入为1.3亿美元，利息净收入约为500万美元。贡献率约60％，净收入约为负4,000万美元，调整后净收入约为负700万美元，调整后EBITDA约为0，删除后平均加权股数约为8,310万股。我们很高兴在当前市场环境下宣布回归顺序增长和盈利能力。
Our improving guidance is clearly not deriving from obvious improvements to the macro economy just yet. It is flowing from a combination of tenacious execution, operating discipline, margin expansion, and deal making. As always, a huge note of gratitude to the various upstart teams who have been heads down and laser focused on getting us through the storm and will remain resolute over the past year in the face of such challenging external circumstances. While there may yet be a few more twists and turns along the way, we are optimistic that we have weathered the worst of it, and barring any reversal in consumer trends that we are back on an ascending flight path.
我们改进的指导明显尚未从宏观经济的明显改进中获得。它来自顽强的执行、操作纪律、利润扩张和交易。一如既往，我们要向各个创业团队表示极大的感激，他们一直专注于让我们经受住了风暴，过去一年面对如此具有挑战性的外部环境仍然坚定不移。虽然沿途可能还有一些曲折，但我们乐观地认为我们已经度过了最艰难的时期，并且除非消费趋势出现逆转，否则我们已经恢复了上升的飞行路径。
Any thought? Dave and I are happy to open up the call to any questions. Operator? Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please sign up by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speaker phone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, please press star 1 to ask a question. We will pause for just a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions.
有什么问题吗？ 戴夫和我很乐意提供机会回答大家的问题。接线员？谢谢你。如果你想提问，请按下电话键盘上的星号1进行注册。如果你使用的是扬声器电话，请确保你的静音功能已关闭，以便允许您的信号到达我们的设备。再次请按星号1提问。我们暂停一下，让每个人有机会发出问题的信号。
Our first question comes from the line of Simon clinch with Atlantic equities. Please go ahead.
我们的第一个问题来自大西洋股份公司的Simon clinch，请提出你的问题。
Hi Dave, hi, Sanjay. Thanks for taking my question and congrats on a pretty good call here. I was wondering, could you give us a little bit more detail around the long-term funding commitments and how we should think about how that might be applied or flow through for the remainder of the year? Are there any constraints, product categories that are focused on or anything like that that we need to know about? Thanks, Simon.
嗨，戴夫和桑杰，感谢你们回答我的问题，并且恭喜你们进行了一次相当不错的通话。我想知道，你们能否提供一些有关长期资金承诺的详细信息，并告诉我们如何考虑这可能在今年余下时间内应用或流动？有任何限制，关注的产品类别或其他我们需要知道的信息吗？谢谢，西蒙。
This is Sanjay. I would say up front, each agreement did it bespoke, so it's hard to broadly generalize. Maybe a couple of headline thoughts. First of all, these agreements, they more or less flow from the ability we've demonstrated over the past couple of quarters to be expensive with our margins and to improve our cake rate. Because we have expanded margins, we're able to think about these agreements that we're able to share some modest preferential economics with long-term committed investors.
这是Sanjay。我会先说，每个协议都是定制的，所以很难做出广泛的概括。可能有几个主要想法。首先，这些协议或多或少源于我们在过去几个季度中表现出的能够以高昂的利润率和提高我们的价格率。因为我们已经拓宽了利润空间，我们能够考虑这些协议，与长期承诺的投资者分享一些适度的优惠经济条件。
This preferential economics could take the form of return premiums or take rate co-investment or modest discounting and this sharing. All investors have a slightly different set of preferences and objectives, so it tends to be a bit different by a counterparty. They're all currently focused on personal loans, so they're restricted to our poor business. On that, they tend to mirror our broader institutional programs.
这种优惠经济可以采取返还保费、收费共同投资或适度折扣等形式进行分享。所有投资者都有略微不同的偏好和目标，因此与交易方略有不同。他们都集中在个人贷款上，因此受限于我们的业务不足。在这方面，他们往往反映了我们更广泛的机构项目。
Apart from some preferential economics that essentially flow from our unit economics, they tend to look very similar to what we would normally do through the capital markets. Great, that's really helpful. Maybe follow up questions about that. Just on your comments around take rate and I guess the very impressive contribution margins that you generated this quarter and anticipate to generate in the next quarter. How should we think about the sustainability of that as you go through perhaps an economic recovery and a loan acceleration at some point? We expect those contribution margins to decline and then what does that mean in terms of, I suppose, those funding commitments become less important in that regard, but just like to figure out how all that ties together.
除了一些优惠经济，它们基本上源自我们的单元经济，否则它们看起来与我们通常通过资本市场所做的非常相似。非常好，这真的很有帮助。也许还有一些跟进问题。您在“费率”和“贡献利润率”方面的评论非常值得称赞，您在本季度产生的预期贡献利润率也非常令人印象深刻。当您经历经济复苏并逐渐加速贷款时，我们应该如何考虑其可持续性？ 我们预计这些贡献利润率将下降，那么这对于资金承诺的影响是什么呢？我想了解所有这些如何联系起来。
Sure, yeah. I guess the punchline is there, I think they're probably sustainable for as long as we want them to be. There's really two underlying factors. That would point to one is the extent to which we are sort of investing for the short term versus the long term and the other is the general elasticity of the loan demand on the borrower side.
当然，是的。我认为点睛之笔在于，它们可能持续的时间，取决于我们想让它们持续多久。实际上，有两个基本因素，一个是我们是为短期还是长期投资而投资，另一个是借款人需求的一般弹性。
So currently, as an example, elasticity is quite high. Credit is in demand on the borrower side. So that creates a sort of pricing ability on our side. But maybe the more important thing is when we're sort of solving for the near term P&L, we are optimizing cake rates as much as possible against that elasticity and we are managing our marketing programs to deliver loans that are profitable in the near term.
目前，举个例子，弹性相当高，借方需要信用。这就为我们创造了一种定价能力。但也许更重要的是，在解决短期利润和损失的问题时，我们会尽可能地优化蛋糕费率，并管理我们的营销计划，提供在短期内有利可图的贷款。
I think that as the economy evolves, and certainly if it improves, what you would see is on the one hand, declining elasticity, so there will be more provision of credit on the supply side and so borrower as well have more choice. But the other factor would be, in our case, we would then start to rebalance how we trade off the short term for the long term. And so by reducing cake rates and by growing marketing campaigns, we can generate more volume, harvest more lifetime value of the customer, harvest more gains on the model learning side.
我认为随着经济的发展，尤其是经济的改善，你会看到两个方面的变化。一方面，弹性下降，供应端会提供更多的信贷，借款人也会有更多的选择。另一方面，我们会开始重新平衡短期和长期之间的权衡。通过降低蛋糕价格并增加营销活动，我们可以产生更多的销量，获取更多的客户终身价值，从模型学习方面获取更多的收益。
Things that won't necessarily show up in this quarter's P&L, but make provide value over time. And so when you put all of that together, you get an improving economy, I think you'd probably see cake rates that may not feel back to where they were before, but would probably moderate with the economy improving. Thanks. That's really helpful. Thank you.
这些东西不一定会在本季度的损益表中体现出来，但随着时间的推移会产生价值。当你把这些全部综合起来，你会发现经济在改善，我认为你可能会看到蛋糕利率可能不会像以前那样回到原来的水平，但随着经济的改善会有所缓和。谢谢，这真的很有帮助。谢谢。
Okay. My next question comes from the line of Ramsey, Alice Sal with Backlees. Please go ahead.
好的，下一个问题来自Ramsey, Alice Sal和Backlees。请提问。
Hi, this is John Coffey on For Ramsey. I had a question for you on your slide 18, really regarding your conversion rates. So it looks like your conversion rates had declined from about 21% last year to 8%. I was just trying to understand the drivers of this a little bit better. Is most of it just the supply of credit or is it sometimes that potential borrowers are hitting that ceiling for interest rates or they're deciding to defer some kind of purchases to later on when there may be a little bit more stable economic condition?
大家好，我是约翰·科菲，致拉姆齐的一封信。我对你第18张幻灯片上的转化率有一个问题，主要是关于你的转化率。看起来你的转化率从去年的21％下降到了8％。我只是想更好地了解这一背后的驱动因素。大部分原因是信贷供应问题，还是潜在的借款人因利率上限或决定推迟一些购买到以后的某个时候，等经济状况更加稳定时再行动？
Yeah, hey, John. Yeah, it's got, it doesn't have much at all to do with the supply side. I think maybe the symbol most explanatory value variable would be what we call our upstart network index or UMI, which is also in our nested materials. And that basically reflects the fact that apples to apples, the same consumer is defaulting at a rate that is maybe sort of 2 to 3 times higher than they were in mid-2021.
嗨，约翰。这个问题与供应端没有多少关系。我认为可能最能说明问题的变量是我们所说的“创业网络指数”或UMI，同时也包含在我们的嵌套材料中。基本上，这反映了同一消费者在苹果到苹果的情况下，拖欠款项的比率可能比2021年中期高出2到3倍。
And because of that consumer repayment pattern change, we are pricing loans very differently, including much higher default premiums in the loans. And then compounding that of course is the higher base interest rates, which are requiring investors to demand higher returns. When you add those two up, our likes for like price for a loan has gone up quite dramatically in some cases, 1500 to 2000 basis points.
由于消费者还款模式的变化，我们正在以非常不同的价格定价贷款，其中包括更高的违约保险费用。当然，更高的基础利率也在加剧这一现象，这要求投资者要求更高的回报率。当你把它们加起来，我们贷款的相似价格在某些情况下已经大幅上涨，达到1500到2000个基点。
And because of that change in pricing, two things are happening. One is a lot less borrowers are getting approved. So a lot of them are being pushed above the 36% at your threshold. And then even for those who are still getting approved, their prices are a lot higher and then maybe less predisposed to taking the loan. So those two things combined have resulted in the contracting conversion rate.
由于价格的变化，出现了两种情况。一种是越来越少的借款人被批准了贷款，因此很多人被迫接受高于你们设定的36%的门槛。而另一种情况是即使还有被批准的借款人，他们的价格也大幅上涨，可能不太倾向于接受贷款。所以这两者结合在一起导致了转化率的下降。
All right, great. Thank you. And just for a very short follow up, I noticed that your loans in your balance sheet actually declined a little bit at quarter to quarter. Should we think of last quarter, the fourth quarter is a bit of a high watermarker, is it still too early to say? Good question, John. I mean, I think that we, I think continue to think of the balance sheet along the lines of the parameters that expressed the market, which is, you know, there's a certain number we won't go above.
好的，非常好。谢谢。顺便问一下，我注意到你们贷款的资产负债表实际上在季度之间有所下降。我们应该认为上个季度，也就是第四季度是一个高度水位线，请问现在还太早吗？这是个好问题，约翰。我认为我们应该为资产负债表继续沿着市场表达的参数思考，也就是说，我们不会超过某个特定的数量。
And that's probably roughly where we were at last quarter. We also sort of set in our remarks that there is a transaction that did not complete in Q1, but we expected to complete in Q2. And that will bring our balance sheet down next quarter. Now from there, we may sort of continue to use the balance sheet as a platform tool. But I think that you'll probably see us remain sort of in a volume where we are sort of, you know, peaking at the billion dollar range and then, you know, you know, having or flowing from there based on whether it's from backting or accumulating.
这大概就是我们上个季度所处的情况。我们也在讲话中提到有一笔交易在第一季度没有完成，但我们预计会在第二季度完成。这笔交易将会使我们的资产负债表下降。从那以后，我们可能会继续使用资产负债表作为平台工具。但我想你可能会看到我们仍然会处于亿美元级别的交易量，然后根据回溯或积累来进行交易的流动。
Great. Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Peter Christians and what's. Good afternoon. Thanks for the question. I just wanted to dig a little bit into the secure funding, the two billion. I just want to understand, is this, are these funds like securing minimums from existing partners or is it incremental from new funding partners? If you could just provide a little bit more color on that and how it is compared to the existing run rate, I guess, of business that you have.
非常好，谢谢。下一个问题来自Peter Christians and what's。下午好，感谢提问。我想深入了解一下安全资金的两亿美元。我只是想弄清楚，这些资金是来自现有合作伙伴的最低保证还是来自新的融资合作伙伴的增量？如果您可以提供一些更详细的信息，并说明与您现有业务的运行率相比如何，那就太感谢了。
Sure. Yeah, thanks, Pete. This is Sanjay. Yeah, I think a lot of it is coming from partners that are new to the platform that we've never worked with before. Some of it is coming from existing partners who would either sort of stepped away from funding during the turbulence of the past few quarters and are coming back to the platform or they're re-upping in significant size. I'm committing forward in exchange for a longer term agreement. So I think in almost every case you can view as sort of being additive to what we've been doing recently and sort of underpins both the, you know, the improving guide that we have in our two two numbers as well as a sort of more general optimism, we're signaling qualitatively.
当然。嗯，谢谢，皮特。我是桑杰。嗯，我认为很多的投资来自于新的合作伙伴，他们是我们以前从未合作过的。部分来自于现有的合作伙伴，在过去几个季度的动荡期间已经暂停了资金，并回到平台，或者他们正在以较大的规模再次投资，以换取长期协议。因此，我认为在几乎每种情况下，您都可以将其视为对我们最近所做的事情的补充，并且在定量上支持了我们的两个二号数字，以及我们正在传达的更普遍的乐观情绪。
So that's helpful. And then I guess in the past, you know, upstart has made a number of model changes to the AI platform and you've seen subsequent results change as well. I guess in the current, I guess assuming the status quo environment, like how do you think these model changes will influence results in the coming quarters? Thank you.
所以这非常有帮助。我想过去，Upstart对AI平台进行了多次模型更改，您也看到了随后的结果发生了变化。我想在当前的情况下，假设现状环境不变，您认为这些模型更改将如何影响未来几个季度的结果？谢谢。
Hey Pete, this is Dave. I mean, generally speaking on the margin that upgrades to the AI tend to improve automation or improve accuracy of the models and those tend to be an aggregate positive to growth. So as I was kind of staying toward the end of my remarks, you know, we believe we can grow without the economy improving, but it will certainly, you know, be doing it against what is currently a pretty challenging economy with respect to funding markets, you know, base credit rates, interest rates, etc. So, but we do believe, I mean, the reason we've been able to grow and over time is predominantly because the technology and the models get better and those tend to lead to growth. And even in a difficult environment, we have today that still is still true.
嗨，Pete，我是戴夫。总的来说，升级人工智能往往会改善自动化或模型准确性，这通常对增长是一个正的聚集效应。因此，正如我在结束演讲时所说的那样，我们认为自己可以在经济不改善的情况下实现增长，但当然，我们将面对目前资金市场、基础信用利率、利率等方面相当具有挑战性的经济环境。但我们确实相信，我们能够实现增长的主要原因是技术和模型变得越来越好，这些通常会带来增长。即使在今天这样困难的环境下，这个说法仍然是正确的。
Okay, thank you. Thank you both. Thanks Pete. Our next question comes from the line of Juliano Belonio with Compass Point. Please go ahead.
好的，谢谢。谢谢你们俩。谢谢你，皮特。我们下一个问题来自Compass Point的朱利亚诺·贝洛尼奥。请继续。
这句话是主持人在主持一个问答会议时说的。他先谢谢大家的参与和支持，然后介绍了下一个问题的提问者及其来自哪个公司。
I was curious in looking at how the mix of bank versus non-bank and institutional investors on the platform, I'd be curious if there's a sense of where that mix may have shifted discord or that might go going forward.
我对平台上银行与非银行、机构投资者的混合比例很感兴趣，我想知道这种比例的变化是否会引起不协调，或者未来可能会走向哪个方向。
You're asking about the sort of mix of bank versus institutional investors. That's right, yes. Yeah, I mean, I guess at a headline level, I would say that obviously the events that we went through in March that particularly impacted the banking sector definitely had an impact. And so the dynamic there is we continue to bring new lending partner, bank credit union partners aboard, but existing ones are obviously becoming a little bit more conservative.
您在询问银行和机构投资者的混合比例。是的，确实是这样。嗯，我想在头条水平上说，我们在三月份经历的事件特别影响了银行业，肯定有所影响。所以动态是，我们在继续引进新的贷款合作伙伴，如银行信用合作社，但现有的合作伙伴显然变得更加保守。
I think that impacted the capital markets less so. So you may have seen a bit of a shift towards the institutional dollars. How that plays out forward is a bit hard to tell. I mean, the banking sector is obviously right now in a bit of turbulence and that may increase or it may moderate. And I think depending on what that banking, what that sector experience is over the coming quarters, you look and pricey reflected in their ability to or they're appetite to lend and to take more balance. You risk. That makes sense.
我认为这对资本市场的影响不大，所以你可能会看到一些机构资金的转移。未来的发展如何，有点难以预测。我是说，银行业现在显然有些动荡，这可能会增加或者缓和。我认为，根据银行业在未来几个季度的经验，你可以看到它们是否能够或者有没有意愿继续贷款和承担更多的风险。你会面临风险。这有意义吗？
And then kind of looking through some of the past disclosures, you've got to two banks that seem to be the primary neighbors of the loan sales or kind of the marketplace side of the platform. But if you add up the volumes of those two banks, it seems to imply that they're actually much more than the loans that are being sold to have the institutional investors and retain by offstri. I couldn't quite, you know, one or two of those banks accounts for 50 plus or getting close to 60% of all your kind of bank funding side of the platforms. I'm curious, you know, what little concentration there is on the banks side of the funding platform.
然后我浏览了一些过去的披露，你们似乎有两家银行是贷款销售或平台市场的主要邻居。但如果将这两家银行的贷款总量加起来，似乎暗示着它们实际上比被机构投资者购买并被Offstri保留的贷款还要多。我不太确定，其中一两家银行占据了银行资金平台的50％以上或接近60％的份额。我很好奇在银行资金平台上有多少集中度。
Have you seen any of those partners pull that in their buying activity recently? Yeah, there are really three banks in our platform that serve as conduits with the originate loans. In some cases, they hold some of them in other cases, they end up selling them to institutional partners. So there are three of those banks in our platform. And it's quite possible to move volumes between them. It's quite purposeful that we can do that. And we're only speaking the fees and the profits on the loans that end up in the institutional side are higher than they are on the bank, on the, what tend to be the primer loans that banks are originating and holding on their balance sheet. So that sort of creates the structure that you're seeing there.
你最近有没有看到我们的合作伙伴在购买活动中这样做？是的，实际上我们平台中有三家银行作为来源贷款的通道。有时候他们会持有其中一些，而在其他情况下，他们最终会将其销售给机构合作伙伴。所以在我们平台上有三家这样的银行。我们可以在它们之间移动交易量，这是有目的的。我们仅谈论那些最终进入机构方的贷款的费用和利润比它们在银行端产生的费用和利润更高，这些都是银行在原始贷款发起和保留阶段的。所以这就创造了你看到的这种结构。
But it's not really, you know, in a true sense of revenue concentration. These are, again, many, many institutional buyers behind those banks, but we do have multiple what we call market place lending partners on the platform. And I'm curious, you know, when you think about plotting constructions from sending partners, are there any partners that are kind of 10% and more of your overall funding, or 15% and more of your overall funding, or is it more diverse?
但从真正的营收集中的意义上来说，它并不是那样。这些银行背后有许多机构买家，但我们在平台上也有多个我们所称的市场贷款合作伙伴。我很好奇，当你考虑从合作伙伴那里获得资金时，是否有任何合作伙伴占据了你总资金的10%或15%以上，还是更加多样化？
I think what you'll see in our revenue concentration disclosures when the financials come out, is that those concentrations are going down. And I think in terms of, you know, source capital dependency, I don't think anything is far greater than the ballpark that you just mentioned. Thank you very much. I'll jump back and you do. Thank you.
我认为在我们的财务报表中，当你看到我们的收入集中度披露时，你会发现这些集中度正在下降。就资金来源的依赖性而言，我认为没有什么比你刚刚提到的范围更大。非常感谢。我会跳回去，你接着说。谢谢。
Next question comes from the line of James Fosette with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Thank you very much and thanks for the details today. I wanted to go back on the secured funding and I think you made the comment that there were some preferential terms that you were able to offer to them. I guess a couple of questions associated with that. Going forward, what would be the right level of mix or targeted mix for that group?
下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特。请发言。非常感谢你们今天提供的详细信息。我想回到你们所提到的保证资金上，你们好像说有些优惠条款可以提供给他们。我有几个相关的问题。未来来看，这个群体的正确比例或目标比例是什么？
And it sounds like you're planning to add more to that, firstly, and secondly, how much should we expect that you may have to harmonize at least some of those terms into other sources of capital? Hey, James, this is Dave. Good question. So I would say, first of all, one of the comments I had made in my remarks earlier, we would like to have, in particular, among capital committed such that we can be cash flow positive as a business. So sort of a baseline of capital that we feel very good about being solid will be there.
听起来你打算添加更多，首先，我们应该期望你至少要将一些术语与其他资本来源协调多少？嘿，詹姆斯，我是戴夫。好问题。所以我想说首先，在我之前的讲话中，我曾提到，我们希望拥有特别是资本承诺，以便我们可以成为一个现金流阳性的企业。因此，我们感到非常满意的资本基础线将是稳固的。
And that would be a pretty dramatic reduction in cyclicality. So that's, I think, what we would try to do. I generally think we are benefiting from the fact that we have very strong margins and that we can share a bit of them with the preferred partner and a preferred partner is one that is making a longer term commitment to us. So I think that's a structure that we would expect to have for the long haul. And I think it makes sense that if they're going to commit to you, you're going to make some special plans to them. And there can, of course, also continue to be plenty of sort of at will participants in the marketplace, month in, month out.
这将是一个非常显著的周期性减少。因此，我认为我们将尝试做到这一点。我认为我们从强劲的利润率中获益，我们可以与首选合作伙伴分享一些利润。首选合作伙伴是那些给我们做出长期承诺的伙伴，这是有利于我们的。因此，我们将期望长期持续这种结构。如果他们承诺与你合作，你将为他们做出一些特殊的计划，这是很合理的。当然，在市场中也可以继续存在许多随时自由选择参与的人。
And we don't expect that to go away with anything that's a good thing. But I do think we want a significant fraction of the funding to be more long term committed in getting a little bit of a preference for doing that. And lastly, as we've said, I think we feel comfortable giving our margin structure that we can afford to do that. The other thing I'll add is this is all as Sunji said earlier, entirely related to personal loans today. I think we will push for this kind of structure on other products as well.
我们不认为这是一个不好的事情，并且我们不期望这个情况会改变。但是，我认为我们希望有相当大比例的资金更长期承诺，从而略微倾向于这样做。最后，如我们所说，我认为我们对我们的利润结构感到满意，我们负担得起这样做。另外，我要补充的是，这全部都与个人贷款有关，就像Sunji之前所说的。我认为我们将在其他产品上也推广这种结构。
I kind of believe that secured products are ones that are much primer like the HELOC product will have probably, I would just say, less of a need for it because they will just tend to be more normal familiar products in one set. So, lenders lean toward even in more difficult times. So that's how we're thinking about it. I don't know if I think it will always be kind of, we'll hopefully harmonize these types agreements into a consistent structure. Sunji said they're starting off a little bespoke by, you know, probably not hard to imagine that that would happen. But over time, I think we would really like to almost programatize it so it's a little more structured. But I do believe there'll be sort of longer term partners and there'll be at will partners coexisting in our platform.
我认为，像房屋净值信贷这样的抵押产品更像是主要产品。因为它们往往是比较常规的熟悉产品，在现阶段，借贷方倾向于选择这些产品。这就是我们的思考方式。我不知道是否一直会是这样，但我们希望将这些协议统一为一致的结构。Sunji说，他们正在开始进行一些定制化的协议，这并不难想象。但是随着时间的推移，我想我们会更加希望将其程序化，使其更加结构化。然而，我认为会有长期合作伙伴和随意合作伙伴共同存在于我们的平台上。
Yep, yep. And then, on, on, I appreciate all that, David. And then, how do you feel about the state of your cost-based now on a run-right basis? I know that here in the, you know, June quarter you're expecting to roughly be adjusted to the top right, even now those programs have been fully implemented. But, you know, should we take that to mean that you're, you feel like you're at the right cost-based and that the kind of the first quarter would have been roughly the bottom from a revenue generation perspective and that you can grow, at least for, you know, the remainder of this calendar, you're on a sequential basis or are there incremental actions that may need to be taken just trying to think through kind of how you're seeing the business and its evolution from this point.
嗯，嗯。然后，我很感激你说的一切，David。那么，你现在对你的成本基础情况有何感受？我知道在六月季度，即使这些项目已经完全实施，你也预计大致能达到最高地位。但是，你是否认为自己处于正确的成本基础上，且从营收生成的角度来看，第一季度大致是底部，这意味着在这个日历年度的剩余时间内，你可以至少保持顺序增长，或者还需要采取增量措施，试图考虑你是如何看待业务及其演变的？
Yeah, hey, James, it's Sunji. Yeah, I think we're in very good shape, I think we've done a personal, from a personal perspective, I think we did what we needed to do in Q1 and we're past it. I think our workforce members are in very good shape now and, you know, barring any dramatic reversal in the business and the economy, I think we'll sort of grow from here. But, there's still more work to be done on the OPEC side as Dave mentioned, there's sort of programs to sort of reduce, you know, large consumers of, you know, compute, you know, machine learning models require a lot of sort of training resources and we want to get more efficient at that, our engineering footprint, you know, the resources we consume, you know, can get more efficient as well. So I think that, you know, this will be an ongoing set of initiatives, but I think by and large, your sort of, your model is right, which is, I think we're at a good place, we can tighten up a little bit more, but you know, we're sort of indicating that we think there's a nice path for growth from year on out and, you know, as we did, as we demonstrated before our cost base is going to scale very efficiently with the top line and it'll sort of provide the provided margin materialization as we grow.
嗨，James，我是孙吉。我们目前的状况非常不错，从个人角度来看，我认为我们在Q1做了必要的事情，现在已经过去了。我们的员工现在状况非常良好，除非业务和经济出现戏剧性的逆转，否则我们将从这里开始增长。但是，正如戴夫所提到的，OPEC方面仍有更多工作要做，减少大量计算的消耗是其中的一项重要措施，机器学习模型需要大量的训练资源，我们想要变得更加高效，我们的工程资源消耗也可以变得更加高效。因此，我认为这将是一系列持续性的倡议，但总体而言，你的模型是正确的，我们处于良好的位置，可以再加强一点，但是我们正在表明，从今年开始我们认为有一个良好的增长路径，而且正如我们之前所做的那样，我们的成本基础将会随着收入的增长而高效地扩展，随着增长的实现，会提供很多的保证。
That's great. Thanks for that, Simon. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Reggie Smith with JP Morgan. Good evening, gentlemen. Congrats on the quarter and on securing the $2 billion in funding. My question, I know in the past, you've been asked about, you know, becoming a bank and not wanting to do that, which I can totally appreciate. My question for you and I guess it kind of relates back to the funding as well. Would you consider like a warehouse type funding mechanism and does any of your $2 billion, is any of its structure in that kind of way where you pay a fixed rate and you hold more loans on ballot sheet? Of course, it's all that $2 billion that you talked about. Purely, you know, arms length, outside of balance sheet.
太棒了。谢谢您，西蒙。谢谢。下一个问题来自JP Morgan的Reggie Smith。晚上好，先生们。恭喜您们这个季度和20亿美元的融资。我知道过去曾问过您们关于成为银行，而您们表示不想这样做，这一点我完全理解。我的问题是关于融资的，是否会考虑像仓库类型的融资机制，而您们的20亿美元中，是否有任何以这种方式结构化的部分，您们支付固定利率并在资产负债表上持有更多贷款？当然，这20亿美元是纯外部资金，与资产负债表无关。
Yeah, Reggie, yeah. That's generally what we would term forward flow commitment. So loans that are purchased monthly by a third party and outside third party. So that's what that is. It's not on our balance sheet. There's no warehouse on our side. I'm using, you know, they could be leveraging on their side if they chose to, but that's separate from anything going on with us. So let me see what was the other part of the question. So would you consider warehouses that is that also something that you would add?
是啊，Reggie。通常，我们会称之为前向流动承诺。这是指由第三方和外部第三方每月购买的贷款。所以，这就是它的含义。它不在我们的资产负债表上，我们也没有仓库。如果他们选择这样做，他们可以在他们这边利用杠杆，但这与我们无关。让我看看问题的另一部分是什么。如果有资产仓库，你会考虑加入吗？
Yeah, we've had modest warehouse capacity for many years. So when the loans are on our balance sheet to some extent, we have, those are financing and it's more efficient use of our equity capital. But that's still, you know, that's under that umbrella of the loan total. So just so we, you know, say no more than a billion on our balance sheet and those tend to be warehouse. Or at least some of them are. So we do use that for a capital efficiency, but it's, it's not a primary funding mechanism. Just as our balance sheet ultimately is not a primary funding mechanism.
多年来，我们的仓库容量一直很有限。因此，当贷款在我们的资产负债表上的一定程度上得到记录时，这些贷款是融资的一种更有效利用我们的股本资本。但这仍然属于贷款总额的范畴。因此，我们在资产负债表上最多只记录10亿美元的贷款，其中很多都是仓储贷款。所以我们确实利用这些贷款提高资本效率，但这不是主要的资金筹集机制。就像我们的资产负债表最终也不是主要的资金筹集机制一样。
Yeah, no, I can't figure it out. The loans on our balance sheet, when we say we have a billion that assets on the balance sheet, but you know, less than half of that is the actual loan equity. A power is the rest of finance, but we still consider that to be our balance sheet. It's really what we're interested in with the long term arrangements is third parties as the, as the risk engine, you know, and they can, they can finance as it suits them.
是的，我无法弄明白。我们在资产负债表上列出的贷款总额是十亿，但实际的贷款资产不到一半。其余的是由其他财务业务产生的资产，但我们仍然将其视为资产负债表。我们真正关心的是与第三方的长期安排，他们作为风险引擎，可以根据自己的需要进行融资。
Yeah, no, I appreciate that. The, I guess the crux of the question was, would you consider the more, I guess, balance sheet intensive, but it sounds like you're comfortable with the billion, and that's kind of where you, where you, where you want to remain, we should have foreseeable future.
是的，我很感激。我猜问题的关键在于，你是否会考虑更加注重资产负债表的方案。但是听起来你对十亿的资金很舒适，并且这可能是你想要继续保持的状态，至少在可预见的未来。
My second question, guidance, very strong numbers. In particular, I guess the, the interest, net interest, and kind of fair value. I guess that implies a pretty sharp sequential improvement there was curious what, what was driving that, and if you could talk a little bit about the performance you've seen of your loans that are held on balance sheet, loss rates and things of that nature.
我的第二个问题是有关指导，非常强劲的数字。特别是，我猜测是利息、净利息和公允价值。我猜测这意味着出现了相当大的序列改善，我很好奇是什么推动了这种改善，如果您能谈一谈您在资产负债表上持有的贷款的表现，比如损失率之类的东西，那就更好了。
Yeah, sure, I do this Sunday, and so as far as the guidance, I would say, you know, Q1 was the anomaly in a sense, which is normally to expect your balance sheet to have some modest positive income. We tend to hold our loans at fair value, so we mark to market, we don't use these real accounting. And so when interest rates are going up, which has happened with a lot in the last year, it's taken a, you know, a toll on evaluations. Q1 in particular, didn't necessarily have adverse sort of interest rate movements, but what it did have is we booked unrealized fair value marks that reflected a balance sheet transaction. Now, it was not a balance sheet transaction that completed Q1, so that's why it's unrealized. But because it was a balance sheet transaction that we were anticipating, we were expecting, and we expected to close, you know, early in Q2, we sort of reflected the economics of that transaction in Q1, and that will be in our disclosures. So I think you could think of that as as of Q2 going forward, we're not really anticipating any large significant transactions beyond the one we've already accounted for.
没问题，我周日能做这个。至于指导方面，我想说，一般来说，我们的资产负债表会有一些适度的正收入，但第一季度有些异常。我们倾向于按公允价值持有我们的贷款，所以我们会按市场价值进行估值，而不是真实的会计方式。因此，当利率上涨时（在过去的一年里发生了很多次），它会对估值产生影响。特别是第一季度，虽然其利率变动并不会对我们造成不利影响，但我们仍然记录了未实现的公允价值标记，反映了资产负债表业务的情况。现在，这并不是第一季度完成的资产负债表交易，所以它是未实现的。但因为这是我们预期的资产负债表交易，我们期望在第二季度早期进行，因此我们在第一季度反映了这笔交易的经济效益，这将会在我们的披露中体现。因此，我认为您可以认为在第二季度以后，我们并不预计会有任何重大的交易，除了我们已经计提的那一笔。
And therefore, I think what you're seeing now in our guidance for interest income just sort of reflects ongoing normality. It sort of like interest rates stability, no large transactions, and some modest income from our remaining down sheet. So that's why I would think about the guidance.
因此，我认为我们指导的利息收入反映了持续的正常情况。这就像利率稳定，没有大的交易和我们剩余的资产表中一些适度的收入。这就是为什么我会这样考虑指导的原因。
As for performance, I think the best way to think about it is in our investing materials, we generally display, you know, what we're intending to do as a blended average across our platform with respect to growth return delivery, and how we think each vintage is trending. And the simple summary is, you know, the advantages that are on our balance sheet from back in 2021, or 2022, are likely going to under-deliver. As they are across the broader platform, I think anything as is certainly Q4 forward, something from the last six to nine months are well on track to over deliver in our opinion. And so if you know that the performance of our balance sheet will just reflect the underlying vintage that you see on the broader platform.
就绩效而言，我认为最好的方式是在我们的投资材料中表达。我们通常以我们平台上的成长回报交付的混合平均为基础，展示我们计划完成的内容，以及如何看待每一笔资金。简而言之，我们的资产负债表中的优势在2021年或者2022年时很可能会低于预期。而在整个平台上，我们认为在过去六到九个月中的任何事项，包括Q4期间，都已经达到或者超过了预期。因此，如果您了解我们的资产表达的绩效只是反映了整个平台上的情况。
And if I could sneak one more in on the take rate, you talked about, I guess, the strong economics. Curious is, is there a way to kind of parse the impact that a stronger pricing or origination fees that are paid by a bar versus maybe with your partners or paying you with any change there. So we talked about better pricing. I don't think there's anything necessarily more to parse there than fees primarily born by borrowers that are getting loans, you know, fun to do institutions tend to flex off at times like this. So that's really what you're seeing. I mean based, you know, yield requirements are going up, loss expectations going up and also the fees going up. All of which we certainly don't love, but just the reality of the economy we're sitting in that we have to plan. And we would really be happy to see all that reverses self over the next year if we're so fortunate.
如果我可以在收费率上再让您多了解一点，你提到了强大的经济效益。我很好奇，是否有一种方式来分析较高的定价或贷款人支付的原始费用与合作伙伴或支付您的任何更改之间的影响。所以我们谈到了更好的定价，我认为并没有什么更需要分析的，主要是由借款人承担的费用，而机构则在这样的时候有时会伸缩。这确实是你正在看到的。我是基于，收益需求上升、预期损失上升以及费用上升。我们当然不喜欢所有这些情况，但这就是我们所处的经济现实，我们必须计划。如果我们如此幸运，我们真的希望在未来一年内看到所有这些情况自我逆转。
No, I got it. That wasn't clear. I'm sorry. I got a couple calls going on. So I didn't catch that part that it was that was fun. Early bar. Okay. Thank you.
不，我明白了。刚才不是很清楚。对不起，我还同时在接几个电话，所以没听到那部分是关于什么的。是在一个早期的酒吧里吗？好的，谢谢。
No worries. Our last question comes from the line of Simon clinch with Atlantic equities. Hi guys, I've got to jump back in the queue. Thanks for taking my question again. Just curious, going back to your the pace of your new model rollouts or updates through the quarter was pretty staggering. And I'll just, you know, someone who doesn't really know about these things, I was wanting to talk us through perhaps the risks and or challenges of of that kind of pace of rollout and. And what to I guess how to think about that in terms of the benefit going forward, because previously we haven't needed that many rollouts to create significant benefits for you guys.
不用担心。我们的最后一个问题来自大西洋股权的西蒙·克林奇。嗨，各位，我要重新排队了。谢谢你们再次回答我的问题。我很好奇，回到你们新模型推出或更新的速度，这个季度的速度真的很快。对于像我这样对这些事情不太了解的人来说，我想请你们谈谈这种推出速度的风险或挑战。我想知道如何考虑未来的收益，因为以前我们并不需要这么多的推出来为你们创造显著的利益。
Yeah, Simon, it's a good question. It's important. I would just say to state that we have different models and production for each product that we have. So this four products to auto products, a personal own product, small ball of product, each of whom have related, but different models that push the production. There's also models that are more focused on automation than the pricing. So things that deal with fraud and those kind of things.
是的，Simon，这是个好问题。很重要。我只想说我们针对每种产品都有不同的模型和生产方式。因此对于这四种产品，汽车产品、个人所有产品、小球产品，它们每个都有相关但不同的模型来推动生产。还有一些更注重自动化而不是定价的模型，例如涉及欺诈等问题的模型。
So, you know, all across the, I don't know exactly how many AI models in the distinctive AI models we have, but it's quite a few. And those teams are working in parallel. So this isn't the same model being updated or retrained every three days. It's less than that. But, but there's a lot of them in each one of them, you know, generally are making some part of our product line that much better. So that's a pace which, you know, a couple years ago, we were probably maybe doing, you know, one a month or so. So it's quite a difference. That that sounds a lot more sensible. Thank you.
你知道，在我们拥有的数十个独特 AI 模型中，有多少个我并不确定，但数量相当可观。这些团队是并行工作的，因此并不是同一个模型每三天更新或重新训练一次。但每个模型都在优化我们产品系列的某个部分。所以我们现在的进展速度比几年前的每月一个模型要快得多。听起来更合理了。谢谢。
Thanks, Simon. This concludes today's question and answer session. I will turn the call back for any additional or closing remarks.
谢谢您，Simon。今天的问题与回答环节到此结束。如有其他需要或结束语，请继续通话。
Just want to thank everybody for listening today. And as we said, we're happy with what we've achieved in the first quarter. We're actually pretty optimistic about 2023. So thanks for sticking with us.
只是想感谢大家今天的倾听。正如我们所说的，我们对第一季度取得的成就感到高兴。实际上，我们对2023年非常乐观。因此感谢大家一直陪伴我们。
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.
今天的电话会议到此结束了。感谢您的参与，您现在可以挂断电话了。