Markets Weekly April 29
发布时间 2023-04-29 13:49:38 来源
Hello my friends, today is April 29th, my name is Joseph and this is Markets Weekly. So this week we're going to talk about three things. First we'll go over the major data prints last week which show an economy that is fine but a set that is losing its battle against inflation. Secondly, we'll talk about the housing market. Now many people thought the housing market would crash because of higher mortgage rates, but so far it appears that that's not happening, it appears to be stabilizing and there are signs that maybe a crash won't happen at all. And lastly I'll give you my outlook for the Fed meeting next week.
大家好，今天是4月29日，我叫约瑟夫，欢迎来到市场周报。今天，我们要谈论三件事情。首先，我们将回顾上周的主要数据公布，数据显示经济正常，但通胀问题依然存在。其次，我们将谈论房地产市场。许多人认为，高利率会导致房市崩盘，但从目前的情况来看，房市趋于稳定，迹象表明崩盘可能不会发生。最后，我将向大家展示我对下周联邦会议的展望。
Okay, let's start with data. Let's start with the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, the PCE index, the core PCE index which strips out volatile components like food and energy. The Fed thinks that this index is the best measure for the path of inflation. And as you can see before 2018 the core PCE index was basically bang on at 2%. So the Fed was thinking that it was doing a good job.
好的，让我们从数据开始。让我们从美联储最喜欢的通货膨胀衡量指标PCE指数开始，核心PCE指数剔除了像食品和能源这样的波动成分。美联储认为这个指数是通货膨胀路径的最佳衡量标准。正如您可以看到，在2018年之前，核心PCE指数基本上在2%左右。所以美联储认为自己做得很好。
But since then, since 2022 we've seen that the core PCE appears to be stuck at around 5 to 4%. If you squint you can see that maybe it's going down a little bit, but this last print, you know, again, reaffirms what many are suspecting and that it seems like core PCE is sticky and it's stuck around 4% to 5%. And even though the Fed has high rates aggressively, it's helping a little bit but it doesn't seem to be making that big of a difference.
不过，自2022年以来，我们发现核心个人消费支出(PCE)似乎固定在5%至4%左右。如果你仔细观察，可能会发现它有点下降，但最近的数据再次证实了许多人的怀疑，即核心PCE似乎很难上涨，保持在4%至5%左右。尽管联邦储备委员会(Fed)已经积极提高利率，但这只有一点帮助作用，似乎并没有造成太大差异。
A big reason for the persistence of a high core PCE is labor. So one of the biggest input costs in the economy is labor costs, which is why the Fed has repeatedly emphasized its efforts to soften the labor market. So our next report that we're going over shows that they actually haven't been having a lot of head weight in that effort.
高核心PCE（核心个人消费支出指数）持续存在的一个重要原因是劳动力。因此，经济中最大的投入成本之一是劳动力成本，这也是美联储反复强调劳动力市场放松的原因。因此，我们接下来要讨论的报告显示，他们在这方面实际上并没有取得很大的进展。
So this next report is the Fed's favorite measure of wage inflation. It's called the Employment Cost Index. Now every month we know that we get the non-farm payrolls which has that average hourly earnings measure. Now average hourly earnings is not that great of a measure because what it does is it takes all the wages earned, the vice-by-the-people were working, comes up with an average hourly earnings figure. Now that measure is very vulnerable to changes in the composition of the workforce.
下一个报告是美联储最喜欢的工资通货膨胀衡量方式，叫做“就业成本指数”。每个月我们都会得到非农就业人数数据，其中包括了平均小时工资指数。平均小时工资并不是一个很好的衡量方式，因为它统计了所有人的工资，算出了平均小时工资。这种衡量方式对劳动力组成的变化非常敏感。
For example, what if during a period of time you have more low skilled workers entering into the economy that would scale the average hourly earnings figure lower? Or what if suddenly you have a whole bunch of lawyers, doctors and tech workers during the workforce that would scale the figure higher? The Employment Cost Index adjusts for those compositional impacts and so it's much cleaner read on wage growth. And as you can see from these charts here, wage growth is not really slowing.
例如，如果在一段时间内，你有更多低技能的工人进入经济中，那么平均每小时工资的数字将下降。或者，如果突然大量律师、医生和技术工作者进入劳动力市场，这将提高该数字。就业成本指数是对这些组成影响进行调整，因此它对工资增长的阅读更加清晰。从这些图表中可以看出，工资增长并没有真正放缓。
You can see these two charts tell the same story that we saw in PCE inflation. It was the measures were low, pre-pandemic, consistent with 2% inflation, but since then they rocketed higher. Right now it looks like wages are growing at between 4 and 5%. And that's just not consistent with a 2% inflation target.
这两张图表表现出的是PCE通胀所传达的同一信息。在疫情爆发前，PCE通胀水平较低，符合2%通胀率的预期水平，但此后它们迅速飙升。现在看起来，工资增长率在4%到5%之间。但这与2%的通胀目标不一致。
One way to think about this is that inflation can persist because people can continue to afford higher prices. If prices are going up, let's say 4 or 5% a year, but your wages are also going up 4 or 5% a year, well then you will continue to buy and pay higher prices because you can afford it. Now the Fed is trying to make this number, this wage number, decelerate by slightly raising unemployment a bit. But so far again, it's not happening, it's hard for this to happen because structurally speaking we have a shortage of labor in the economy.
一种思考方式是，通货膨胀可以持续存在，因为人们可以继续承担更高的价格。假如价格每年上涨4或5％，但您的工资也每年上涨4或5％，那么您将继续购买并支付更高的价格，因为您有能力负担。现在，联邦储备委员会正在试图通过略微提高失业率来让工资增长减速。但到目前为止，这仍在上升，这很难发生，因为从结构上来说，我们经济中存在劳动力短缺。
People in the 1980s had smaller families and so our workforce population is not growing at the same way that it used to grow. So this is out, this is, and of course the boomers, a lot of them retired earlier than expected. So this is something that appears structural and might not change anytime soon, is that all.
20世纪80年代的人家庭规模更小，因此我们的劳动力人口增长不再像过去那样快速。所以这种情况已经不可避免了，当然还有世纪婴儿潮的那些人，他们中很多人比预期提前退休。因此，这是一个结构性的问题，可能不会很快改变，就是这样。
Now let's go to a more macro measure, the GDP Brent. The Atlanta Fed now GDP now print was showing 2.5% GDP growth over the quarter, which was very good. The expectation is that the underlying potential growth rate of the economy is about 1.8%.
现在让我们来看一下更宏观的衡量方法，即GDP Brent。亚特兰大联邦储备银行GDP现在的报告显示，这一季度的GDP增长率达到了2.5%，这是非常好的表现。预计经济的基础潜在增长率约为1.8%。
But due to last minute revisions, the GDP now print was revised around 1% and lo and will be hold, the official print was around 1%. Now note that this figure will be revised for a few times throughout the quarter. But slower GDP growth suggests a slower economy and economy growing below trend means that maybe the economy is slowing, maybe employment market will cool a little bit, maybe the wages will cool as well.
但由于最后一刻的修订，GDP现在的印刷品被修订了约1%，官方印刷品也只有约1%。现在请注意，这个数字将在本季度内被多次修订。但是较慢的GDP增长意味着经济增长较慢，经济增长低于趋势意味着经济可能正在放缓，也许就业市场会稍微冷静一下，工资也会降低一些。
On its face, it seems like the economy is slowing, but if you look under the hood though, you will come up with a slightly different impression. So Jason Furman, who was a very good economist on Twitter, had a good thread about why he likes to focus on another figure in this report called, Finals Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers.
表面上看，经济似乎在放缓，但如果你仔细观察，你会得出略有不同的印象。所以，Jason Furman是一位在Twitter上非常出色的经济学家，他发表了一篇关于为什么他喜欢关注这个报告中另一个数字——最终销售给私人国内采购者的帖子。
The GDP report measures the amount of goods and services produced in the economy. But that's not necessarily a good measure of the underlying strength of consumer demand, for example. For example, what if your company, a car company and you made 100 cars? Well, if you made 100 cars, you obviously produced goods and services in the economy and that would have had an impact on GDP. But what if you produce those 100 cars and demand was so weak that they just kind of sat in your inventory, they were not actually purchased by consumers? Then you would walk away with an impression of the economy that was stronger than it actually is. So these inventory numbers can skew the underlying strength of the economy.
GDP报告衡量经济中生产的商品和服务的数量。但这并不一定是消费者需求潜在强度的良好测量方法。例如，假设你的公司是一家汽车公司，生产了100辆汽车。显然，如果生产了100辆汽车，就在经济中生产了商品和服务，这将对GDP产生影响。但是，如果你生产这100辆汽车，需求非常弱，以至于它们只是闲置在你的库存中，而不是实际被消费者购买。那么，你会得出比实际情况更强的经济印象。因此，这些库存数字可以扭曲经济的潜在强度。
So changes in inventory impact GDP and changes in the changes of inventory impact the growth of GDP. When you strip out those inventory impacts, you come away with a picture of an economy that is stronger than the 1.1% would imply. So Finals Sales to Private Domestic Purchases grew at an annual rate of 2.9%. That's suggesting that there is good underlying demand in the economy. So this figure, this GDP print we've gotten is better than it appears on its surface.
存货变化影响国内生产总值（GDP），而存货变化的变化则影响GDP的增长。当你排除这些存货影响时，我们会看到一个比1.1%更强大的经济形势。因此，私人国内购买终值年增长率为2.9%。这说明经济中存在良好的基础需求。因此，这个GDP数据比表面看起来更好。
The next thing that I want to talk about is the housing market. So as we know, we had a tremendous boom in housing over the past couple years. 2020-2021, we had house prices increasing, let's say 20% year over year. And a large part of that was driven by generationally low mortgage rates. Mortgage rates got below 3%, everyone who could was levering up and buying a house. Not all suddenly went away when mortgage rates began to decline. So the Fed began to agressally pipe rates. And in 2022, mortgage rates went as high as 7%. And that really froze the housing market.
接下来我想谈谈的是房地产市场。我们都知道，在过去几年中，房地产市场经历了一个巨大的繁荣。在2020-2021年期间，房价每年增长20%左右。其中很大一部分原因是由于极低的抵押贷款利率所推动的。当抵押贷款利率降至3%以下时，所有有能力的人都在杠杆化购房。当抵押贷款利率开始下降时，这种情况并没有突然消失。所以，美联储开始采取积极的降息政策。到2022年，抵押贷款利率上升到了7%。这真的冻结了房地产市场。
We've seen so far house prices drop about, say, 10-20% from their peaks in 2022. Mortgage rates so far have remained elevated. They're still around 6-7%. But it also appears that the housing market has stabilized. House prices don't really appear to be declining as much as they used to. In many parts of the region, they are stabilizing more even rising. So there's more weakness on the west coast, but on the east coast and the southeast coast, they're doing fine.
到目前为止，我们已经看到2022年房价从峰值下跌了大约10-20%。房贷利率至今仍然居高不下，大约在6-7%左右。但是，房地产市场似乎已经稳定了。房价似乎不再像过去那样下降。在该地区的许多地方，房价甚至稳定甚至上涨。因此，在西海岸存在更多的弱点，但在东海岸和东南海岸，情况很好。
And curiously, if you look at the stock of home builders, now this is DR Horton, the largest home builder in America, it's pushing all-time highs. So what's happening? I thought that high mortgage rates would kill the housing market, which would be really bad for the home builders. In order to find out more, I listened to their earnings calls, which gave some pretty interesting insight.
有趣的是，如果你看一下房屋建筑商的股票，现在这个引用的DR Horton，美国最大的房屋建筑商，股票价格正在推向历史最高点。那么到底发生了什么呢？我认为高利率会扼杀住房市场，这会对房屋建筑商非常不利。为了更好地了解情况，我听了他们的收益电话，这提供了一些非常有趣的见解。
Their view is that the housing market is stabilizing. They're seeing some degree of price increases in select markets. And the way that they're seeing continued demand is that they're offering home buyers lower mortgage rates. So if you went into the market as a home buyer, you're facing 6-7% mortgage rates. But the home builders, they're willing to buy down a home buyer's mortgage rate and offer them a mortgage rate of about 5.5%. From their earnings call, they thought 5.5% was the sweet spot that could get the deal done.
他们的观点是，房屋市场正在稳定。他们在一些特定市场看到了一定程度的价格上涨。而他们继续看到需求的方式是，他们为买家提供更低的抵押贷款利率。因此，如果你作为一名购房者进入市场，你将面临6-7%的抵押贷款利率。但房屋建筑商愿意为购房者购买低抵押贷款利率，并提供约5.5%的抵押贷款利率。从他们的收益电话会议中可以看出，他们认为5.5%是可以完成交易的甜点。
Now, when a home builder buys down mortgage rate, it cuts into their profits because they have to spend money to buy the mortgage rate down. So that's cutting into their margins. So we can see the margin graph here, DR Horton had tremendous margins of almost 30% in 2022. But since then, are around 21%. So 21% is about where they were in 2020. They're describing it as normalizing. They had a period of super demand in 2022, which led house prices rise and their margins to fatter. But as the how-it-you-market calls, they're giving back some of that margin and that seems to be enough to maintain demand.
现在，当房屋建筑商购买抵押贷款利率时，这将减少他们的利润，因为他们必须花钱购买降低抵押贷款利率。这会影响到他们的利润率。我们可以看到利润率图表，DR Horton在2022年拥有接近30％的巨大利润率。但从那时起，现在的利润率大约在21％左右。所以21％左右是他们在2020年的水平。他们描述这种情况为标准化。他们在2022年经历了超级需求期，导致房价上涨和利润率增加。但由于整体市场的呼叫，他们正在还回一些利润率，这似乎足以维持需求。
And structurally speaking, they're not really bearish on the market because they know that resale volumes, resale houses are very low. So inventory is very low. So when you want to buy a house, you can buy it either from a home builder, so you're buying new construction, or you can buy from someone who, an existing home, buy it in the resale market. Now, anyone who owns a home is sitting on a mortgage rate of about 3% or below. They don't want to sell. If they don't want to sell, then there's no supply in the resale market. The amount of homes available for sale with the inventory of homes is low. If you want a home, you basically have to go to a home builder and that gives them marketing power, market power.
从结构上讲，他们并不真正看空市场，因为他们知道，二手住房的交易量非常低。因此，库存非常低。所以当你想买房子的时候，你可以从一个房屋建筑商那里买新房，或者从一个已有房屋的所有者那里，在二手市场上购买。现在，任何拥有房屋的人都有一个低于或等于3％的抵押利率。他们不想卖房。如果他们不想卖，那么二手市场上就没有出售的房源。有售房源的数量很少。如果你想有一所房子，你基本上必须去找房屋建筑商。这给他们带来了市场营销和市场影响力。
Now, democratically speaking, a lot of the millennials are aging into the time where they want to buy a house. So there's some structural inelastic demand for housing and at the same time because the reseller, the current homeowners are not selling their home, there's not a lot of supply for housing. So if you have some persistent demand and you have very low supply, obviously the prices will be supported. That means that there's likely to not be any crash in home prices.
现在从民主角度来讲，许多千禧一代的人正在进入他们想要购买房屋的时期。所以，住房市场存在一些结构性的需求不变性，同时因为现有房主不愿意出售房屋，因此房屋供应不足。因此，如果存在持续的需求和极低的供应，很明显房屋价格将得到支撑。这意味着房价不太可能崩盘。
Back in 2008, there was a crash because a lot of people were underwater in their mortgages. They had too many houses. They were levering up, buying homes, the lost their job, and they couldn't afford the mortgage, and they had to walk away. And so that home ultimately got sold in auction or, let's say, in foreclosure. This time around, everyone is locked in to really low mortgage rates. Labor market is fine. Wages are growing at 40%. There's not really going to be any foreselling. So that inventory, the reseller inventory is probably going to stay off the market. So going forward, what's probably going to happen in my personal view is that you have that home prices move in a sideways way, but over time, wages continue to increase. And so affordability improves, not by home prices going down, but over time by wages going higher. But prices will come lower in some markets. This is real estate is really local, but it doesn't seem like a crash is going to materialize.
回到2008年，有一次经济崩盘，因为很多人的抵押贷款都欠得很高。他们买了太多房子，杠杆太大，而又失业了，无法负担抵押贷款，只好放弃了房子。这些房子最终会被拍卖或被收回。但现在，人们的抵押贷款利率很低，劳动力市场状况也很好，工资增长率达40%。现在不太可能出现抛售，转卖的库存很可能会留在市场外。因此，我认为未来房价可能会呈现横向波动，但随着时间的推移，工资水平会继续增加，从而提高购买力。但某些市场的房价可能会下降，因为房地产市场真的是地域性的，但不像2008年那样出现崩盘的可能性很小。
Now the last thing I'll talk about is the expectations for the Fed meeting next week. So basic principle of the Fed is that they don't like the surprise markets. So when the market is pricing in, an 8% chance of a hike next week of 25 basis points, that's what they're going to do. And of course, the governor waller and his last speech before blackout also strongly hinted that's the case. So I think that's pretty much a done deal.
现在我要说的最后一件事是对下周联邦会议的预期。联邦的基本原则是他们不喜欢市场的惊喜。所以当市场正在定价下周25个基点的加息概率为8%时，他们就会这么做。当然，沃勒州长在禁言前的最后一次讲话中也强烈暗示这是个事实。所以我认为这基本上已经是板上钉钉的事情了。
The real question for the market is not whether or not the federal hike is the trajectory of rate hikes. So I'm not sure if the Fed has done, they could do one more. To me, it's not really that important. I'm pretty sure they will remain open to additional hikes depending on how the data turns out. That's obviously the prudent thing to do. The market continues to price in two to three rate cuts by the end of the year. That's what I think is very, very unlikely in Sherpau will be pretty adamant that he doesn't see rate cuts later in the year. As we've just reviewed, it looks like one inflation is pretty persistent becoming more entrenched. Two, the sectors that are supposedly most sensitive to interest rates like housing seems to be stabilizing it potentially reaccelerating. So there's really no reason to be cutting rates when your monetary policy tool is not working the way that it should.
对于市场来说，真正的问题不是联邦利率上调的轨迹是存在与否。所以我不确定联储已经做了什么，他们还可以再做一次。对我来说，这并不是特别重要。我相信，他们将根据数据的表现保持开放，考虑进一步的利率上调。这显然是明智之举。市场仍在预测今年年底会有两到三次利率下调。但我认为这非常不可能，Sherpau 也坚定地表示他不认为今年晚些时候会有利率下调。正如我们刚刚审查的，首先通货膨胀非常持久并越来越根深蒂固。其次，房地产等最敏感于利率的行业似乎在稳定或者有可能再次加速。因此，当你的货币政策工具没有按照应有的方式发挥作用时，没有理由降低利率。
The last thing that I'll mention is that so last meeting, the Fed was concerned about financial instability in the banking sector. So it hiked 25 instead of 50 basis points. Now that's all behind us. We have a lot more data to look at what's happening. And I've done a lot of work looking at the earnings calls about regional banks. And they seem to be pretty, you know, pretty okay. Honestly, some of them went out of the way to say that they saw lots of volatility in the market, but in their own business, they didn't see any difference. And when I look at aggregate banking data, just this past week again, banks continue to make loans. So it seems like the overall banking system is fine. There really was no systemic risk there.
我要提到的最后一件事是，上次会议中，美联储担心银行业的金融不稳定性。因此，它只升息了25个基点，而非50个基点。现在这些都已经过去了。我们有很多更多的数据可以观察现在的情况。我做了很多工作来研究区域银行的盈利电话。它们似乎表现得相当不错。老实说，其中一些甚至特别强调市场的波动性，但在他们自己的业务中，他们没有看到任何不同。当我看聚合的银行数据时，就在上周，银行继续放贷。因此，整体银行系统看来还好。那里真的没有系统性风险。
First republished bank went into receivership, they're going to go under. Again, that's just a neighboring bank to Silicon Valley bank. We have some localized problems. Take a step back, look at the banks have failed signatures. Silicon Valley bank, first republished, those were banks that were really highly exposed to specular vast banks of tech. When you have over 4,000 businesses, 4,000 banks in the country, just like any other business, some of them are going to fail. I don't really think it's systemic. I don't really think it's a big deal, honestly.
第一家重新出版的银行已经破产，他们即将倒闭。只是一个毗邻硅谷银行的银行出了一些地方性的问题。回头看看那些失败的银行，比如硅谷银行和第一家重新出版的银行，它们是真正高度暴露于科技巨头的银行。当你有超过4000家企业，4000家银行在这个国家，就像其他任何企业一样，其中一些会倒闭。我真的不认为这是系统性的问题。老实说，我真的不认为这是一个大问题。
And now that we have more clarity, I think the Fed is more comfortable with knowing that, yes, this might have some impact on the availability of credit, but it's not systemic, it's not super serious. I think that makes them a little bit more relaxed when they think about hiking next week, and whether or not they'll hike any beyond that. When the market, as I expect, becomes gradually aware that, hey, maybe the Fed is not going to cut rates two to three times later this year.
现在我们有了更多的清晰度，我认为美联储更加放心，知道这可能会对信贷的可用性产生一些影响，但它不是系统性的，也不是非常严重的。我认为这让他们在考虑下周加息以及是否会进一步加息时更加放松。当市场，正如我所预计的那样，逐渐意识到，嘿，也许美联储今年晚些时候不会再削减利率两到三次。
I suspect there's going to be more downside for equities and strength for the dollar. Rates go higher a bit as well.
我怀疑股票可能会继续下跌，美元可能会继续走强。利率也可能会稍微上涨。
What I'm seeing in the sock market this week was pretty surprising. It seems like there's a tremendous, tremendous amount of buying or euphoria. Or something like that. It's concentrated in a few big tech names, but I suspect that there's a lot of people who are thinking that the Fed is going to cut rates really soon, maybe even due to QE, and they're trying to get ahead of that, thinking that that's going to make the stock market go to the moon.
本周我在股市中看到的情况非常令人惊讶。似乎有大量的购买或情绪高涨。虽然重点集中在几个大型科技公司，但我怀疑有很多人认为美联储很快就会降息，甚至可能由于量化宽松政策，他们试图提前行动，希望这将使股市大涨。
I think those people are going to be really disappointed, and at this point, I'm super cautious about the equity market.
我认为这些人会非常失望，目前我对股权市场非常谨慎。
So, all right, that's all for this week. I will be back to give you an FOMC debrief, and of course, we'll have our markets weekly next week as well.
好的，这周的节目就到这里了。我会回来为你们介绍FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）的情况，并且下周我们还会有我们的市场周报。
Oh, one more thing. I have a new free online course on my website, centralbanking101.com. It's a course on market participants, and it's the first installment of my markets 101 curriculum. So, check it out. It's completely free.
哦，还有一件事。我在我的网站centralbanking101.com上推出了一门新的免费在线课程。这是有关市场参与者的课程，也是我市场101课程的第一部分。所以，请去查看一下。它完全免费。
All right. Thanks so much, guys. Thank you.
好的，谢谢大家。非常感谢你们。谢谢。