Big Tech earnings breakdown w/TechCrunch's Alex Wilhelm | E1731
发布时间 2023-04-28 23:11:38 来源
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Everybody, it's Friday. It's this week in Startups and Alex Wilhelm is with us. He's the editor-in-chief of Tech. Crunch. Plus, go sign up and subscribe for that. And Alex spent on the show dozens of times. Yes, sir. He knows tech. And you're like a classic journalist. You don't get involved in too many, you know, superfluous, social, whatever, you know, cultural issues. You like to talk about the business and the tech. Yeah, to a degree.
大家好，今天是星期五。欢迎收看这周的Startups节目，我们有Alex Wilhelm来和我们一起。他是TechCrunch的总编辑。请去注册并订阅该网站。Alex曾多次在节目中出现，他非常熟悉技术。你就像一个典型的新闻记者，不过多涉及不必要的社交文化议题，更喜欢聊一些商业和科技方面的话题。
I do think I'm recently castigated because I I I I I pomed off a little bit during Silicon Valley bank. And you ever just hit the zeitgeist at the wrong time with the wrong people in the wrong way. I took, yeah, yeah, I'm rhetorical for both of us. But like I got more flack in like 30 minutes about my SVB take than I had gotten in two years. And I was like, oh, this is why I mostly talk to my friends. Right. Yeah.
我认为最近我受到了指责，因为我在硅谷银行时说了一些不太恰当的话。有时我们会在错误的时间、错误的人物和错误的方式下接触到现象精神。我承认，这对我们两个来说都是修辞上的问题。但是，在30分钟内，我受到了比过去两年更多的责备。所以，我现在大部分时间都是和朋友交流。
Well, what was your take on the SVB situation? Okay, don't don't I've already been I paid penance for this. So don't shout at me, but I was like, no bail out the rich before the FDIC announced that they were going to make the impossible. But what I didn't realize was how downstream the effects were going to go. Etc. So I learned. But people took it as like, oh, the media hates us. So you know, they're all communists. And I was like, I'm sorry. I apologize for my seven words.
那么，你对SVB的情况有什么看法？好了，别别，我已经为此赎罪了。所以不要对我大喊大叫，但我曾认为在FDIC宣布他们将做出不可能的举措之前，不应该救助富人。但我没有意识到影响会有多大，于是我学会了。但人们把它看成是媒体仇视我们，所以他们都是共产主义者。而我只想说，对不起，我为我的七个字道歉。
Well, I mean, this was a subtle issue because I agree with the sentiment of don't bail out the rich. People who are placing bets. I don't feel like United Airlines management should get bailed out. Or I should get bailed out as a venture capital is. I'm generally anti bail out. But yeah, when you look past, and I didn't know the extent that Silicon Valley bank was used by my kids school. The public school in my district is a Silicon Valley bank customer. And they were not going to be able to pay the teachers. This was not, you know, the name of the bank played big into this.
我指的是，这是一个微妙的问题，因为我同意不救助富人的情绪。那些在进行赌博的人。我不认为联合航空公司的管理层应该得到救助。或者像我这样的风险投资者应该得到救助。我一般反对救助计划。但是，当你深入了解，我并不知道硅谷银行在我孩子的学校是如此广泛使用。我的地区的公立学校是硅谷银行的客户。他们将无法支付教师的工资。这与银行的名字有很大的关系。
And then the good news is the management and the equity shareholder is not the good news. The fair news, the equitable news was that they did not get bailed out. And all we did was enforce FDIC. But I took the opposite side of it, which was like, holy cow. What I'm seeing from the inside as a venture capitalist now who does random acts of journalism. And so most of the journalists who just covered venture capital. Yeah. I watched the bank run for Silicon Valley bank occur in my feed, email, phone call. And at the same time, people were moving to Silicon Valley bank to first republic. I was about to say, yeah, first republic people were moving out of first republic and putting into Bank of America or JB Morgan. And I'm like, wait a second.
然后好消息是管理层和股权股东没有受到救助，这是一个公正的消息，公正的消息是他们没有得到救助，我们所做的只是执行FDIC。但我持相反意见，这就像是我作为一名风险投资家，现在从内部看到的随机新闻。所以大多数只报道风险投资的记者们。是的，我看到了硅谷银行的银行运行在我的动态消息中出现，电子邮件，电话。与此同时，人们正从硅谷银行转移到第一共和银行。我差点说，是的，第一共和银行的人正在转移到美国银行或JP摩根银行。我想，等等。
Bank runs can cause other bank runs. And then I say, wait, I think there's a word for this. I think there's a word for this. It might start with a C.O.C. Contagion.
银行挤兑会引起其他银行挤兑。我认为，等等，我觉得这个有一个词。我觉得这个词可能以C.O.C开头，是“传染”。
Contagion. Yeah. Well, okay, look, if we're going to bring up first republic before we get into this earning stuff, do you see what happens to their stock today? First republic. If I demolish another 30% or something, I mean, it's over. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Good. That was my question.
《接触》电影。好的。嗯，好的，如果在我们谈论收益之前要提及第一共和国，你看到他们的股票今天发生了什么吗？第一共和国。如果它再跌30％左右，那就完了。好的，那很好，那是我的问题。
Because my view is that this goose is cooked. But I wanted to make sure I wasn't being too pessimistic or negative. You know, it's down 40%. It's got a market cap now of $685 million. 52 week high was $171. And it's trading at $3.67.
我的观点是这只鹅已经熟了。但我想确保我没有过于悲观或消极。你知道，它已下跌了40%。现在市值为6.85亿美元。52周最高价为171美元，而现在交易价为3.67美元。
So, you know, like Silicon Valley bank, an incredible brand with incredible people who work there. Yeah. And this like really custom banking where you can get somebody on the phone as opposed to cookie cutter banking at the big 405. It really does serve a place in the world. And not just for rich people. This mom and bank mom and pop stores, main street stores, they get to have a banker and they get to get a line of credit, all the stuff.
你知道硅谷银行吧，这是一家非常不可思议的品牌，也有着非常不可思议的员工。对，他们提供一种非常定制化的银行服务，你可以直接打电话联系他们，而不是去大厅里面等待各种平面化的服务。这种服务确实在世界上有着很大的价值，而且并不只是供富人使用。即使是普通人和小店铺，他们也可以得到一位银行家和一条授信，以及其他的金融服务。
So we got a serious problem. If somebody buys this asset and maintains it, I mean, imagine if, I don't know, what's a big tech company that wants to be in banking. Oh, Apple. Yeah. It was about to say Google wallet. Apple wallet. Maybe number one. Yeah. Yeah. You know, Microsoft not so much now that I think about it. But Google for sure. For sure. Yeah. Amazon probably would take a swing. So if we're spitballing here, and Amazon first Republic takeover, it would cost like 12 minutes of revenue. Look, I mean, first Republic is now worth like two buzz feeds. That's bad. Your bank should never be worth a low multiple of Buzzfeed stock, right?
我们面临一个严重的问题。如果有人购买了这个资产并进行维护，我是说，想象一下，我不知道，哪个想进入银行业的科技巨头。噢，苹果。是的。我差点说谷歌钱包。苹果钱包。可能排名第一。是啊。是啊。你知道，微软可能不行，现在我想起来了。但谷歌肯定会。肯定会的。是的。亚马逊可能会试一下。所以说，如果我们在思考，假设亚马逊接管第一共和国，那将花费约12分钟的收入。看，第一共和国现在只值两个Buzzfeed，这很糟糕。你的银行不应该只值Buzzfeed的低倍数，对吧？
Like, I mean, it's been a while since you had to have caught up. But I mean, the Buzzfeed situation is bonkers. They were making $200 to $300 million a year. And I think their stock was trading at less than their revenue. Oh, yeah. Their revenue multiple went below one. I've ever called correctly. And by the way, did you know that lifts revenue multiple is also below one now? I did not know that. I think point nine, last time I checked or something like that, I think Uber is 1.8. But like those businesses have also been reprised pretty extensively.
我是说，你应该很久没听过这些新闻了。但是Buzzfeed的状况真的令人咋舌。他们每年能赚2到3亿美元。而且他们的股票交易价格还不如他们的收入。哦，是啊。如果我没记错的话，他们的收益倍增已经低于1了。顺便问一下，你知道Lift的收益倍增现在也低于1吗？我不知道。我记得上次查的时候是0.9，或者类似的数字。我觉得Uber是1.8。不过，这些企业的估值也已经经过了很多修正。
Yeah. It's, if you refuse to show profits, and you know, you just go for the growth number, which was rewarded in the syrup in the zero interest rate market. It was rewarded. I can tell you, Dara's having a hell of a time, turning around a battleship and saying, Oh, we're supposed to go in the other direction. It's like battleship aircraft carriers do not turn, they're not like speedboats. It takes a little time to turn them around. I'm just in awe that Uber isn't more profitable. And I know it's a complex business with a lot of tech that goes into it. There's insurance questions and markets and support. There's lots of things. But like when I use Uber Eats, I am paying markup fees, delivery fee and tipping. I am paying like three X with the food costs. And you think it would just rain money down from the sky. Right.
是的。如果你拒绝展示利润，并且只追求增长数字，那么在零利率市场上，增长数字会受到奖励。我可以告诉你，达拉正在艰难地扭转船只的方向，并且说，“哦，我们应该朝另一个方向走。”这就像战列舰和航空母舰不会转弯一样，它们不像快艇那样转弯。它需要一点时间来使它们改变方向。我很惊讶Uber没有更多的利润。我知道这是一个复杂的业务，并且涉及到许多技术。有保险问题、市场和支持等方面。但是当我使用Uber Eats时，我支付了涨价费、配送费和小费。我支付了三倍于食品成本的费用。你认为这应该会让钱从天上落下来吧。
Well, it turns out human beings in America doing service jobs went from a $78 minimum wage to a $15 minimum wage in some cities. And then in order to compete for them, it kind of got to hit 25 to 35 bucks. Where Americans are just not going to do those jobs. You close the borders. We have no immigration. We've got 9 million job opening. So as weird as this whole economy is.
事实证明，在美国，从事服务行业的人们的最低工资由78美元增加到某些城市的15美元。而为了竞争这些职位，工资又要提高到25到35美元左右。但美国人将不再愿意从事这些工作。如果关闭边境，停止移民，我们仍将有9百万个职位空缺。尽管整个经济形势很奇怪，但事实就是如此。
You know, the good news is I think if you look at Facebook doing the layoffs, getting rid of management redundancies, there is a path to have your stock recover. And my understanding is that Uber is taking all that very seriously. And I think you're going to see the free cash flow. I think they are reporting in the first week in May. Like so that maybe next week. That feels right. Yeah. They're going to, I think they are going to surprise some people. People are.
你知道吗，好消息是我认为如果你看看Facebook进行裁员，清理管理冗余，就有可能使你的股票恢复。我了解到Uber非常认真地对待这一切。我认为你会看到自由现金流量。我认为他们在五月的第一周内进行报告，可能是下周。感觉对了。是的，我认为他们将会让一些人感到惊喜。
Because what I always knew, having been an early investor and this, I don't have inside information now. Yeah. Was nobody would change their behavior. Maybe like the bottom one or two percent. If you raise the price of a ride by a dollar. And nobody changes their behavior. So I think now that they're, I don't want to say a monopoly, but a do-oply with DoorDash and a, you know, almost a monopoly with lift suffering. I think they can, they're going to start printing money. That's my hope. I'm still a lot of shareholder.
因为我一直是早期投资者，所以我知道的是，我现在没有内幕信息。是的，没有人会改变他们的行为。也许只有最底层的一两个百分点会有所不同。如果你把一次乘车的价格涨一美元，却没有人改变他们的行为。所以我认为，现在他们是一个“不想说的垄断”，但和DoorDash合作，占据了几乎垄断的位置，而Lyft正在苦苦挣扎。我认为他们会开始印钞票。这是我的期望。我仍然是一个股东。
Talk to my brother. Look, as someone who has depended on Uber and a lift for, it's been so long now. I was in college when Uber rolled out in Chicago. And I actually got to go to there like Chicago launch party, when they were just black cars. Like that's my, my history with the company. I have given them so much money over the years. Yeah. I would like them to process because I still depend on them. You know, so I'm here for that.
跟我兄弟聊聊吧。作为一个长期依赖Uber和Lyft的人，我已经用了很久了。当Uber在芝加哥推出时，我还在上大学。而且我还去参加了他们的芝加哥发布派对，当时他们只有黑色的豪华轿车。这就是我和这家公司的历史。这些年来，我已经花了很多钱在他们那里。是的，我希望他们继续运营，因为我仍然依赖他们。所以我会一直支持他们。
Listen, we work with super early stage companies that my investment firm launch, you know, every series A, maybe got a couple of thousand dollars a month and a revenue. You've raised a couple of hundred thousand dollars, maybe a million dollars, right? Let's see, early days, year one or two of a startup. And I'll be honest, a lot of time startups, they don't have their insurance. They haven't set that up yet. They haven't set up their accounting properly. They're getting things cleaned up. In fact, I was recently had a great startup, but they didn't have D&O insurance.
我们与我的投资公司早期成立的超早期公司合作，通常是每个A轮融资，可能每个月收入仅有几千美元。你们筹集了几十万或者一百万美元，对吧？早期创业的第一、第二年。老实说，很多时候，创业公司没有投保保险。他们还没有正确地设置会计，还在整理文件。事实上，我最近遇到一个很棒的创业公司，但他们没有董事及高级管理人员责任险。
That basically protects your directors and officers. It's the day directors, people on the board, officers, the people who work at the company, right? Directors and officers, insurance is super important. So what do we do? We start them right to in broker. Our friends over at in broker are a business insurance company that's built specifically for startups.
这基本上是保护您的董事和高管的保险。这一天，董事、董事会成员、高管和在公司工作的人都需要保护，对吧？董事和高管的保险非常重要。那么我们应该怎么做呢？我们把他们引荐给in broker。我们的朋友in broker是一家专门为初创企业打造的商业保险公司。
You just fill out a simple application, right? And then startups get four quotes for four lines of coverage in 15 minutes. Four quotes, four lines of coverage, 15 minutes. Easy, breezy, lemon, squeezy. That's right. Connect you with one of their expert brokers for unmatched service that goes beyond your policy. And listen, you might think, oh, it's too early to have insurance. It's not that expensive. It's not that complicated because in broker makes it easy. So here's what I want you to do. Try and broker today with the code twist. And you'll get 10% off their startup package at embroker.com slash twist.
你只需填写一个简单的申请表，对吧？然后，初创公司就能在15分钟内获得四个报价，涵盖四个领域。四个报价，四个保险范畴，15分钟。轻松愉快，一切迎刃而解。没错。他们还会为你联系一位专家经纪人，提供卓越的超越保单的服务。而且，你可能会认为，现在购买保险为时过早。但其实它并不贵，也不太复杂，因为经纪人会让一切变得简单。所以，我希望你今天就使用代码"twist"试用经纪人，这样你在embroker.com/twist购买初创套餐时可享受10%的折扣。
That's embroker.com slash twist. We love embroker. I use embroker. They're an amazing team. They do a great job for startups. Whether you're in your one or your five, go use embroker.com slash twist.
这是 embroker.com/twist。我们喜欢 embroker。我也使用 embroker。他们是一个了不起的团队。对于初创公司，他们做得很出色。无论你是处于第一阶段还是第五阶段，都可以访问 embroker.com/twist。
On the cost front though, that's going to kind of bring us into earnings because I feel like everyone's trying to show off operating leverage these days, which is such a weird thing to discuss because two years ago, you and I were talking about literally anything else. Right. What are your new initiatives? Tell me about yourself driving unit. What about VTOLs? What can you add to this party and this mix? And now it's like, what can we take away? How focused can we get? And people were hiring and buying office space two years ahead of plan. That's what I think their best practice was.
然而在成本方面，这会有点影响我们的收益，因为我觉得每个人都在试图展示经营杠杆，而这真是一个奇怪的讨论，因为两年前，你和我都在谈论完全不同的事情。对。你有什么新的举措？告诉我有关你的自驾车项目的信息。VTOL(垂直起降飞机)呢？你能为这个派对和混合物增添什么？而现在，我们要考虑什么可以削减？我们可以多专注一些吗？人们两年前提前两年雇用和购买办公空间，我认为这是他们最好的实践。
So if you're a Facebook, Microsoft, Uber, whoever, Twitter, you're like, okay, what am I going to need? Imagine saying today, how many people and how much office space do I need in 2025? Let's buy it now. We'll just grow into it. It's hilarious. I feel like you can't have more of a flip on that. I mean, when I was at CrunchBase, we were expanding and we were in like one floor of our building, then two floors of our building, and then it was like two and a half floors of our building. And we were counting down until someone else left the other half of our floors so we could move. That company is now in fully remote. And that office space is either empty or occupied. I think by someone else. It's pretty wild.
如果你是Facebook、微软、优步、Twitter等公司，你可能会想，我需要什么？想象一下，今天我需要在2025年有多少员工和多少办公空间？那就现在购买它，我们会慢慢发展到那个规模。这太有意思了。我觉得这真是一个巨大的转变。当我在CrunchBase工作时，我们扩张了，我们原先在一个楼层上，然后是两个楼层，接着是两个半楼层。我们一直在倒数等待其他公司离开我们楼层的另一半，这样我们才能搬进去。这家公司现在已完全远程工作。这个办公空间或者是空置或是被其他公司占用。这真是件很神奇的事情。
I was in San Francisco on Monday. I had our accelerator come back in person for the first and the last weeks. It was really great feeling. And then this Founder University program, which kind of comes before an accelerator. Okay. Where we put 25K into companies that are just like haven't even incorporated yet. I had a hundred of them. And I was at Thamwick's office for one in Wilsonson, San Francisco for the other. They were nice enough to host us and put out a nice spread. And walking between the two, Phi Die to Embarcadero, I mean, Alex compared to what we saw just three years ago. It was like being in a dystopian sci-fi film, we were like, oh, I am the last person. It was like a Twilight Zone episode.
周一我在旧金山，我第一次和最后一次亲自接待了我们的加速器。这是一种非常棒的感觉。我们的创始人大学项目在这之前，可以看作是加速器的前一步。在那里，我们向还没有成立公司的公司投入了25,000美元。我见了一百个这样的公司，一个在桑威克的办公室，另一个在旧金山的威尔逊森区。他们够好心，让我们来访并提供美味的食物。在两个地点之间走路时，从菲迪到艾姆巴卡德罗，和三年前相比，我觉得像置身于反乌托邦科幻电影中，我们感觉就像是最后一个人，就像是一集《午夜惊魂》。
I remember the Twilight Zone's, my favorite Twilight Zone episode is the one where time, I think it's called, where the guy is in the library. He wants to read books. He's got really thick, coke bottle glasses. And he goes into the vault with like all the great old books. And the vault closes and he gets locked in for 24 hours. When he comes out. This sounds great. It's amazing. I'm not going to say anything after this because that happens in the first 30 seconds. And he gets out of the locker because it's a time 24 hour locker. He has been reading books all night. His dream is to just not have to talk to people in the library, but just actually read the books. He comes out in the world's change. I'll just leave it at that. Oh, okay. I can guess. But don't threaten me with a good time. Put me in a vault. 24 hours of just books. Dude, that sounds amazing. It's, that's what's just so great about this episode. I cannot wait to talk to you about this episode.
我记得《第五季》里有一集，我最喜欢的那一集是一个叫“时间”的，那个男孩在图书馆里。他想要阅读书籍，带着非常厚的眼镜。他走进了一个有着伟大古老书籍的金库。当金库关闭的时候，他被锁在里面24个小时。当他出来时，这听起来非常棒。令人惊讶的是，这只发生了30秒钟而已。因为这是一个24小时的存书柜子，他一整夜都在看书。他梦想着能够在图书馆里不必与人交谈，而只是阅读书籍。当他出来后，世界已经发生了变化。我就不多说了，我能猜到。但是不要威胁我，这听起来很棒。把我锁在金库里。24小时的书籍阅读时间。这一集的伟大之处就在于此。我迫不及待地想和你谈论这一集。
And yeah, folks asking about Uber May 2nd, but it's, um, your, that office is not being counted in the 30% of offices in San Francisco that are vacant. Yeah. So now you started to put in the shadow vacancies. It's probably 40. It might be 50%. I mean, I don't know how they ever recover.
是的，有些人在问5月2日的优步情况，但是，嗯，你们那个办公室不在旧金山30%的空置办公室中被计算在内。是的，现在开始算入暗藏的空置率了。可能是40%，甚至可能是50%。我不知道他们怎么会恢复过来。
A rebuttal to this because I have a big soft spot in my heart for San Francisco. Live there for eight, nine years. Amazing city. Amazing city. I'm a West Coast boy originally. This is an idea and a, and, uh, because both my sister went to Stanford, I've been popping around the Bay Area since I was like eight and I just love it.
这是因为我非常喜欢旧金山，所以要进行反驳。我在那里生活了八九年，这座城市很神奇。我最初是在西海岸长大的，这个想法也是因为我姐姐去了斯坦福大学，我从八岁开始就在湾区周围晃荡，我就是喜欢它。
Hmm. People, I think forget that SF is and always has been a boom town. Yes. And it will boom again and then it will bust again. And we are currently in the trough of, of pain. And I fully respect that there's work to be done. Let's knock it into politics on that. But like, yeah, I, I think SF will once again have its moment. It wasn't cool 10 years ago or bus 15 now. 15. I'm sure it will be cool again. So I, I, I do think it's a boom bus cycle. I did see it. Com web to now. It does go through these things. It's not the first time that it got hollowed out. But you know, it got built up too. And so it got built up and then hollowed out. And then the work, the remote work thing combined with the safety issues.
嗯，人们似乎忘记了旧金山一直以来都是繁荣的城市。是的，它会再次繁荣，然后再次崩溃。我们现在正处于苦痛的低谷期。我完全尊重需要做出的工作，让我们避免政治方面的屈从。但是，我认为旧金山将再次拥有自己的时刻。10年前它并不热门，现在也不是15年前。我相信它会再次变得热门。所以，我认为这是一种繁荣和衰退的循环。我早就看到这种情况，它确实经历了这些事情。这不是它第一次被掏空了。但是，你知道，它之前也曾被兴建，然后被掏空。加上远程工作和安全问题，此次情况加剧。
And again, not to get political putting it all aside. You used to be able to sell somebody who was, you know, how to family, who's the CFL. That's it. You want to be the CFL of Uber, Airbnb. Oh, you want to be the senior CTO. You got a family. Oh, great. Bring your family to San Francisco. Let me show you Dolores Park. Let me show you the, let me show you Pac Heights. Let me take it a Presidio. I mean, it's gorgeous. Let me take it a Tahoe. We'll go to Wine Country. And you could sell it. Yeah. And it's a hard sell now. And you had to sell it against, hey, it's expensive. But it's delightful.
再次强调，无意涉及政治，但你曾经能够销售给那些家庭成员、喜欢加拿大足球联盟的人。就这样。你想成为Uber、Airbnb的加拿大足球联盟吗？哦，你想成为高级首席技术官。你有家人。太好了。把你的家人带到旧金山。让我带你去多洛雷斯公园。让我带你去帕西海兹。让我带你去普雷西迪奥。这里太美了。让我带你去塔霍。我们去葡萄酒乡。以前你可以卖出去的。是的。现在这很难卖出去了。你必须与“虽然很贵，但是这是快乐的”相对抗。
I mean, when San Francisco is on, it's on. It's just stunning and beautiful. Yes. To be able to go to Tahoe for the weekend in Ski or to go to Napa for the weekend in Dringwine and or to go south to Santa Cruz and surf. I mean, it is extraordinary. Yeah. Which is what makes it heartbreaking. I'm really rooting for it to turn around. Yeah. Plus feed. $0.55. Yeah. What's the market cap? I mean, I'm almost shocked to say it all out. $76 million. Oh, I'm so sorry. First of all, look at the AX, the Buzzfeed market cap. My mistake. I mean, it literally reminds me of the Dockham era where cash on the books became greater than, yeah, the valuation. So you could basically fire everybody, turn the website off and make a profit. Yes.
我的意思是，当旧金山亮起来的时候，它真的很惊人和美丽。是的。能够去塔霍度周末滑雪，去纳帕周末品酒，或者去南部的圣塔克鲁兹冲浪真的很特别。是的，这就是使它令人心碎的原因。我真的希望它能扭转局面。是的，再加上Buzzfeed，市值为55美分，市值是多少？说出来我都有些震惊。7600万美元。哦，我很抱歉。首先看看AX，Buzzfeed的市值。我的错误。我是说这真的让我想起了Dockham时代，当时账面现金多于估值，你基本上可以解雇每个人，关闭网站并赚取利润。是的。
Now, there are control issues because my understanding is Jonah Peretti controls, I think, some amount of Buzzfeed. Yeah. But how is the news in the media business with the Buzzfeed news shutting down? Because that was a pretty elite group. Was it not?
现在存在控制问题，因为我理解乔纳·佩雷蒂在控制一定比例的Buzzfeed。是的。但是Buzzfeed新闻关闭后，媒体业的新闻怎么样了？因为那是一个相当精英的团队，对吧？
Super elite. In fact, I actually used to pay Buzzfeed news. They had some sort of like, give us $5 a month. You don't get anything for it, but you can give us money. And I always said, sure, I'll support the team. To me, it had already been sufficiently desiccated by Laos and Exit's that when they finally stomped on the last bit of it, it wasn't the biggest shock. I think it was kind of sad to see the end of an era. Because the hope was, there's a company that does all the silly stuff, it makes money, and you spend it on news, Haza, what a cool model isn't that great. And it turns out it wasn't.
超级精英。事实上，我曾经给Buzzfeed News付费。他们有一种像“每月5美元给我们，你不会得到任何东西，但你可以给我们钱”的服务。我总是说，当然，我支持这个团队。对我来说，这已经被老挝和Exit的削弱得足够了，当他们最后踩灭最后一点时，这并不是最大的震惊。我认为看到一个时代的终结有点悲伤。因为希望是，有一家公司做所有愚蠢的事情，赚钱，你把钱花在新闻上，哈扎，这是一个多么酷的模式。结果证明它并不是。
Buzzfeed though, I don't have a lot of emotional connection to the non news side of it, but I will say that it feels like a relic from a different era. It does. It feels like Yahoo. Suddenly, it feels like not even Huffington Post or, you know, ALL or something. It's kind of. Even though I currently work for some combination of the Coz and the OL fused into Yahoo, I take that personally, but.
尽管我对Buzzfeed并没有太多的情感连结，但我会说它感觉像来自不同时代的文物。它就像是雅虎一样。突然间，它感觉不像是赫芬顿邮报或者ALL等类似平台了。有点像。尽管我现在的工作是在Coz和OL融合成雅虎的某个部门工作，我对此感到亲自相关，但……
Well, I mean, they can, we'll say, you know, I'm friends with Jim Land Zone. It is incredible. Yahoo's staying power. So Yahoo Finance, Yahoo Sports, like some of these services, and they actually, we did mail are pretty fantastic. So I would actually take the Yahoo back, but I leave the, the, the ALL and the, you know, some of those other assets that just feel like they're, they're just on cruise control whenever.
好的，我的意思是，他们可以，我们可以说，你知道我是吉姆·兰德·索恩的朋友。雅虎的持续力真是难以置信。所以雅虎财经、雅虎体育等一些服务，实际上我们发送邮件的体验非常棒。所以我确实会选择留下雅虎，但我会保留那些感觉像是一直在自动巡航的其他资产。
Well, we're on the podcast and we don't have to behave. Tell me about Jim Land Zone because I've, I've slapped with them once because all I got.
好的，我们现在在播客中，不用表现得很正式。告诉我关于吉姆·兰德区的事情吧，因为我只见过他们一次，所以不了解他们。
You know, Jim Randsteinet, and he is a great steward of brands. And he can manage the two, you know, when you run a publishing brand, a house of brands, if you will, like Condé Nast or, or like Yahoo today with TechCrunch and other assets.
你知道吗，吉姆·兰德斯泰因是品牌的优秀管理者。他可以同时管理两个品牌，比如当你经营一个类似于康泰纳仕或是雅虎科技媒体及其他资产的品牌集团时。
I think they still own Engage it, my old brand. You know, you have to be able to balance what the advertising, incorporate folks want to do to destroy brands and compromise them. And what the editorial group wants to do to make them excellent.
我认为他们仍然拥有我的旧品牌“Engage it”。你知道，你必须能够平衡广告和营销团队想做的破坏品牌和妥协牌品的事情，以及编辑团队想做的使品牌卓越的事情。
And you know, there are some people who can take that tension, extracting value from a brand, you know, making it home, and then, you know, not destroying it. And what most people, what happens to most people who are in those positions is they're, they're just like shutting things down.
你知道，有一些人可以承受那种紧张感，从一个品牌中提取价值，让它变成家，而且不会破坏它。但是大多数人在这种职位上，最常见的情况是他们会把事情处理得很糟糕，让它慢慢地瓦解。
They don't appreciate the fact that, you know, the Engage it reader is different than the TechCrunch reader, is different than the Yahoo Tech reader and the Yahoo, you know, finance folks, even though finance overlaps with this is a different audience than the brands mean something to those audiences.
他们不珍视这个事实，就是Engadget的读者不同于TechCrunch的读者，也不同于雅虎科技的读者和雅虎财经人士，尽管财经与此有重叠之处，但这是不同的受众群体，这些品牌对于这些观众具有特殊意义。
Yes. He understands that the brands mean some of the audience. And it's okay if they overlap, you know, like what the overlap between Engage it and TechCrunch is always going to be 20%.
是的，他理解品牌对一些观众很重要。如果它们重叠也没关系，就像Engage it和TechCrunch之间的重叠总是会有20%一样。
And what somebody running the Huffington Post might do, some mid-level manager, walk, might be like, oh, and they did this.
有些人经营赫芬顿邮报可能会做的事情，也许是中层管理人员，比如走一走，可能会想，哦，他们做了这个。
这句话的意思是在描述有些人在经营赫芬顿邮报时可能会采取的行动，例如中层管理人员会进行观察和细节注意，并认为他们的同事采取了某些行动。
They took joystick. There's incredible video game site that we had created and they're like, we'll make it Huffington Post gaming and it'll just be Huff Post slash gaming. And it's like, oh my God, that's death to the serious gamers who have been with this brand for two decades.
他们拿走了操纵杆。我们创造了一个令人难以置信的视频游戏网站，但他们却要把它变成赫芬顿邮报的一个游戏专栏，只有“赫芬顿邮报/游戏”这一个入口。这对于已经跟随这个品牌两十年的专业玩家来说，简直是致命打击。
And I think Jim Lenzone understands brands and how to be a good steward of brands for the people who love them and the advertisers who love them.
我认为吉姆·伦佐理解品牌，知道如何成为品牌受欢迎者和广告商的良好管理员，为那些喜欢品牌的人提供服务。
But consolidation is how typical MBAs minds work. And they think efficiency and consolidation and who can we fire and what can we cut.
但是典型的MBA思维是通过整合实现的。他们考虑的是效率和整合，还有谁可以裁员以及可以削减什么。
And it would be like saying, you know what, you're directing this Marvel movie, you might as well throw Grogu in there because he's popular.
这句话的意思是，好像在说，你知道吗？你在导演Marvel电影时，可以把Grogu放进去，因为他很受欢迎。
And you're like, I'm sorry, what? Yeah. Yeah, Grogu, you know, from Mandaloriania. It'd be great. Why don't we make him one of the X-Men? I knew that was a Star Wars reference. I wasn't sure what it was. I'm going to make Yoda part of the X-Men and you're like, what? Okay, but that doesn't have great crossovers and comic book history. So like, you know, great. That's great for a one off gimmick thing over the summer when we're kids. It's not good for the long term, you know, health of the brand. So you have to be careful.
你可能会问：“什么？”是的，Grogu，你知道，来自《曼达洛人》。把他也变成X战警成员怎么样？我知道那是个《星球大战》的参考，但我不确定是什么。把尤达变成X战警成员，这听起来有点荒谬，对于交叉漫画史来说并不是很好的选择。虽然这在夏天的一次性激动中会很棒，但对于品牌长期的健康影响不利。所以我们必须谨慎。
Yeah. There is nothing like a good whiteboarding session. And I know it, man, when you're there brainstorming ideas, collaborating and you get those vibes that everybody's dialed in and you get your best ideas, you're putting your best foot forward.
是的，没有什么比一个好的白板讨论更棒的了。我知道，当你和大家一起思考创意时，协作一起时，每个人都全神贯注，并且你会得到最好的想法，尽情展示你的才华。
Well, it's hard to do, right? You got people spread all over the planet. We all work remote now. We'll remeerro. Mero is a great tool for you to take your idea from inside your head and get it out there to the rest of the world.
好的，这很难做吧？你的团队分散在全球各地。我们现在都远程工作。我们要使用Mero，它是一个很好的工具，可以帮助你把你的想法从脑海中实现，并向世界上其他人展示出来。
You think, Mero, I want you to think zero to one building a startup from scratch. It needs input from everybody and Mero democratizes collaboration and input.
你知道吗，Mero，我希望你考虑从零开始建立一家创业公司。这需要每个人的投入，而Mero是一种民主化的协作和投入方式。
So everybody gets a voice. It's much more than just a digital lifeboard. It's a visual collaboration tool that's asynchronous and powerful.
所以，每个人都有发言权。它不仅仅是一个数字化的生命板，更是一个可视化的协作工具，具有异步和强大的特点。
Your team can collaborate on planning, researching, brainstorming, designing, all the feedback cycles you need to make your product and company a success.
你的团队可以在计划、调研、头脑风暴、设计以及所有反馈周期中进行合作，确保你们的产品和公司获得成功。
Mero equals zero to one, but faster. And here's the best part. Mero has a community of power users who are addicted to the product.
Mero等同于0到1，但速度更快。而且最好的部分是，Mero拥有一群沉迷于该产品的强大用户社区。
You know what they do? They make world-class templates all day long. Go to mero.com session. Mero verse and one that founders might love is the complete naming mega workshop.
你知道他们在做什么吗？他们整天制作世界一流的模板。请前往mero.com的界面。其中一个创始人可能会喜欢的是完整的命名大型工作坊。
So many startups. They have trouble picking a great name in the early days. This workshop is going to really help you and your team brainstorm a great name. That's iconic.
很多初创企业都面临着初创阶段如何选择一个好名字的难题。这个工作坊会真正帮助你和你的团队头脑风暴出一个标志性的好名字。
Faster inputs equals faster outcomes and velocity is how startup wins.
输入越快，输出就越快。速度是创业公司获胜的关键。
You all know that. So go to sign up for Mero right now for free. Mero.com's that startups MIRO.com's that startups to sign up for free.
你们都知道这个。现在去免费注册Mero吧。Mero.com是那家初创公司MIRO.com，可以免费注册。
Erning. Great to catch up. Yeah, I've missed you. But let's talk earnings. So we're going to start with Google.
Erning，好久不见，很高兴能赶上聊天。我很想念你。但是现在，我们来谈谈收益。首先，我们要从Google开始。
And I just want to say that Google Cloud, after many years of losing money, demonstrated operating profit in the last quarter, ring the buzzer, give them 10 points. That's fantastic.
我想说的是，谷歌云经过多年的亏损，在上个季度实现了营业利润，响起蜂鸣器，给他们打十分。这太棒了。
I'm sure that Ruth Poorat, the CFO over there, has been looking through the numbers to make that all work out. I presume there is by some trimming here and there.
我相信那边的首席财务官鲁思·普尔特一定在浏览数字，以确保一切都能得到解决。我预计可能需要在某些方面进行削减。
But what really took my mind here when I read this earnings report was that revenue was actually up just 3% year over year. And that's a really small number and it's very close to zero. It's which is stunning.
但当我读到这份收益报告时，真正令我关注的是营收实际上仅同比增长了3%。这是一个非常小的数字，非常接近于零。这太惊人了。
If you think about this collection of stocks, could we really call them like high growth stocks anymore? You know, when you get to single digits, they're not high growth stocks. But what is great is that in an advertising recession down market, there's some profits right because Facebook hits some down quarters. And meta Facebook, I'm going to talk about that.
如果你考虑这些股票的集合，我们真的还能称它们为高成长股吗？你知道的，在个位数时，它们不再是高成长股票。但是最好的是，在一个广告衰退的市场中，还是有一些利润的，因为Facebook在某些季度出现了下滑。我会谈论Meta Facebook。
I'm deaf. Everyone knows what you mean. Yeah. And so I do think the fact that they cut those 12,000 employees and they told everybody, hey, a little bit back to the office, a little more focus. It's not enough. They haven't gone full Zuckerberg. But Sundar doesn't have that ability because he's not the founder. And he's got a, he's a consensus builder.
我是聋的。每个人都知道你的意思。是的。我认为，他们裁员了12,000名员工，并告诉每个人，“回到办公室，更加专注一些”的事实是不够的。他们还没有像扎克伯格那样全面发展。但桑达尔没有这种能力，因为他不是创始人。他是一个协商者。
And so I think the, the, the act of them getting their act together and cutting costs and getting earnings up, you know, a non founder has a harder time with that because they just can't come in and say, here's what we're doing. They have to build consensus amongst leaders of groups. Just trust Susan Wojekki left YouTube. You got the deep mind people. You know, it's all these different fiefdoms, little kingdoms. And so it's just going to be hard for them to make change.
因此，我认为，他们整合资源，并削减成本以提高盈利能力的行动很重要。一个非创始人要做到这一点更难，因为他们不能自行制定计划。他们必须在不同小组领导之间建立共识。像Susan Wojekki离开YouTube,这个组织还包括DeepMind团队和其他许多小团体，感觉上像一个个小王国。因此，他们很难做出改变。
I don't think they're going to fall us far behind on the AI stuff as people. I think I think they're just more thoughtful about releasing stuff because they're Google. Because they have antitrust issues because they have a monopoly. So they just got to be careful, you know, scaring people. That's my understanding. It's like they just don't want to scare people at how good this stuff is.
我不认为他们会在人工智能方面落后于我们。我认为他们只是更加谨慎地发布新产品，因为他们是谷歌。因为他们面临反垄断问题，因为他们拥有垄断地位。所以他们必须小心，不要吓到人们。这是我理解的情况。就像他们只是不想让人们知道这些产品有多好，以免吓到他们。
But now that cats out of the bag, Microsoft's going for it. You'll see more coming out. And it is important for them. If they're going to be third to Azure and AWS to make it a sustainable business. I think that's we talked about this early on the top of the show. And just everybody's trying to make these businesses sustainable.
但现在，这个秘密已经被揭露出来，微软决定去做了。你将会看到更多的产品推出。这对他们而言非常重要。如果要成为Azure和AWS之后的第三方可持续业务，他们必须这样做。我们在节目开头就谈到了这个问题。现在每个人都在努力使这些业务可持续。
Yeah. And they got too many employees at these companies. So I would expect them to cut more people to hit their numbers and get this to be a growth story and get the stock to move. So 190,000 employees, I think that number was inclusive of employees they've cut. Right. So you're coming up on 200,000 employees and you want to streamline operations and make things move faster. Is that a thing you can do?
是的。这些公司雇员太多了。所以我预计他们会裁员以实现业绩增长并推动股票走高。因此，190,000名员工的数字中包括他们已经裁掉的员工。现在他们员工即将达到20万名，但他们却想简化运营并使事情变得更快。这可行吗？
Is that like is there a corporate story where a company that's this rich and then that large and the human kind of capital has managed to actually become more agile because poor companies can just cut tons of stuff because they're out of money. Google is still incredibly wealthy. And so I wondered if there's like a natural inertia to just being that rich and then it's harder to actually make the hard choices to get faster. When you're sitting on ungodly amounts of billions of dollars, tens of billions or an apple's cases, hundreds of billions of dollars, it's kind of hard.
这是否意味着有一个公司传说，这个公司既富有又庞大，但是由于其人力资本的敏捷性，它实际上已经变得更加灵活，因为贫困的公司可以削减大量的资源，因为它们缺乏资金。谷歌仍然非常富有，所以我想知道是否存在一种自然的惯性，使富有的公司更难做出艰难的决策以加速发展。当你坐拥数十亿甚至数百亿美元的资产时，这或许是很难的。
And when Sundar's taken down whatever, tens of millions of dollars and stock, hundreds of millions of dollars, yeah, it's a hard message to say we need to get rid of this entire group. We need to lay these people off. And did you see the TikTok reaction when Google made these?
当桑达尔撤下了某些项目时，涉及数千万美元及股票、甚至数亿美元，这时我们要说“我们需要裁掉整个团队”是一条非常难以接受的信息。你了解谷歌裁员时，特别是在 TikTok 上引发了什么吗？
I mean, just every person who six months ago was making here's my day at the Google office in New York and I'm getting a much a lot to with soy and then I went and I got a back rub and then I did yoga and then I did some email and then I went home and you're like, I think it would be a more non-work. It would work. Yes. But okay, sure, maybe I'm just an old Gen Xer who liked to grind.
我的意思是，就是每个人六个月之前都在这里上班，会说：“我在 Google 纽约办公室的一天非常美妙，我享受大豆产品，然后我去按摩，做瑜伽，然后回家处理一些电子邮件。”你会觉得这些感觉更像是生活而不是工作。当然了，也有可能我只是一个喜欢坚持工作的老一辈人。
So yeah, there is communication issues. I'll be honest. They did none of these companies because of their cash positions. It's a really interesting point you kind of alluded to there. None of them had to make any of these cuts. So they used to say, hey, why are they making the cuts? These are sacrificial cuts. These are motivational cuts. These are entitlement cuts. Great irony of irony.
是的，存在沟通问题。说实话，他们并没有因为现金位置而做出这些决定。你提到了一个非常有趣的观点。他们没有必要进行任何这些削减。所以他们曾经说，嘿，为什么他们要进行这些削减？这些是牺牲性质的削减，是激励性质的削减，是权利的削减。伟大的讽刺是，这些公司偏偏采取了这些削减措施。
Google created entitlement culture. They were like, let us do your laundry. There's a coffee bar on your floor and guess what? There's going to be a coffee bar on the other side of the floor so you can walk half as far. And yeah, we upgraded the beans to blue bottle because Facebook has fills. I mean, entitlement culture was bonkers at the peak. We lived adherence in the Bay Area. You lived it. You saw it. It was nuts. It was great. It was awesome. It was good to do all the, to deal it went away.
谷歌创造了一种“要求特权”的文化。他们会说：“我们来帮你洗衣服。你们楼层还有咖啡吧，而且我们会在楼层另一侧再开一个咖啡吧，这样你们就可以走更短的路了。而且，我们还换成了蓝瓶咖啡豆，因为Facebook用的也是蓝瓶。”在巅峰时期，这种要求特权的文化简直疯狂。在湾区，我们生活在人云亦云的文化中。你见证过它，也感受过它。那真是让人又疯狂，又美妙，又令人感到棒极了。然而，一切美好的事物都有终结的时候，这种文化也渐渐消散了。
And well, and I think people, and I don't blame employees for when somebody says, we'll do your dry cleaning for saying, okay, I mean, just to say, okay, when somebody offers you something is nothing wrong with that. But I think they want to scare employees into performance, perhaps back to the office eventually. And it is a power play. I think it is as much about getting people to perform as it is about getting the bottom line.
嗯，我认为人们并不怪雇员们当有人说，“我们会为你洗衣服”的时候只是说“好的”，意思是，当有人提供你东西时，表示接受是没错的。但我认为他们想要威胁员工提高工作表现，也许会让员工最终回到办公室。这是一种权力游戏，不仅是为了利润目标，也是为了让员工更好地表现。
So removing M&Ms or whatever, sacrificial services go away, massages, whatever, that's good. Getting some costs out is good. But I think it's really just to motivate people to work harder and to maybe take back power because the power dynamic was flipped. Power dynamic was flipped.
所以，消除M＆Ms或其他牺牲性服务、按摩等，这是好的。减少一些成本是好的。但我认为这只是为了激励人们更努力地工作，并可能重新夺回权力，因为权力动态已经颠倒了。权力动态已经颠倒了。
意思是，消除额外的服务和成本是好的，但真正的目的是激励员工更加努力工作，并重新平衡权力关系。
But I don't think it actually ended up landing in the hands of like the individual Googler. I think it ended up just so diffuse through the middle of management setup that the company didn't realize how sticky it became to make decisions and do things.
但我不认为它实际上最终落到了像个体谷歌员工的手中。我认为它最终只是通过管理层中间散布，以至于公司没有意识到它变得有多难做决策和实施事情。
简单翻译：我不认为这件事最终落到了谷歌员工手中，可能是在管理层中传播开来，导致公司做决策和实施事情越来越困难。
And it's reasonable. If you have a ton of money and you have a big problem space and your competitors are rich, you do a lot of stuff. You know, I mean, Microsoft makes hardware still, you know, and and Google tried Stadia and Amazon, they had a halo brand. They just shut down. That was like wearables. Microsoft tried to wearable too. So these companies are always going to kind of, I think expand outwards. And there might be periods when they just rapidly contract to fix that. But I don't think it stems the long term problem, which is how do you run a business that's this big, this rich, and this essentially almost its own nation state without there just being inherent bloat? There's going to be bloat. There's going to be bloats. Yeah. There's always going to be bloat.
这是合理的。如果你有巨额财富和庞大的问题空间，而你的竞争对手有钱，你会做很多事情。你知道，微软仍然生产硬件，而谷歌尝试了Stadia，亚马逊则有一个光环品牌。他们刚刚关闭，就像穿戴设备。微软也尝试了穿戴设备。因此，这些公司总是会向外扩张。可能有时他们会快速缩小以解决问题。但我并不认为这解决了长期问题，即如何经营这样一个庞大、富有并且几乎像一个国家的企业，而不会存在固有的膨胀。膨胀是不可避免的。总是会有膨胀。
I think it really is when the founders say, hey, we're going to ship this cadence. I'm building smaller groups who are building these elite projects. And you'll see it once in a while where they take a couple of people out of the building. Like, this is the war room. This is a group that's going to do Bard. And they've made some combinations of Google Brain and DeepMind. Start seeing people move to different buildings and being on like SWAT teams. And hey, we're going to release this product in 30 days. It can be done. Yeah.
我认为创始人说“嘿，我们将按照这个节奏推出产品”时，这真的很重要。我正在建立小团队，他们正在构建这些顶尖项目。你偶尔会看到他们把几个人扔到外面，这是战争室。这是一个将会进行Bard项目的小组。他们结合了谷歌大脑和DeepMind的技术。开始看到人们被分配到不同的建筑物，并且像特警队一样活动。嗨，我们将在30天内发布这个产品，这是可以做到的。
But there was a lot of distraction. I was, and I don't know if you were on the episode we were talking about it, but I was like, people are doing petitions at Apple. I'm like, can you imagine Steve Jobs coming to work one day and people were like, oh, Mr. Jobs, there's a petition on your desk from 800 employees. He'd be like, oh, okay, great. Can I see that list? And then he's like, yeah, hold on a second. And he just looks down the list. He takes three names off of it. Bring these three people to my office. And then the other 997, I just take this to HR. And just fire them all. And turn off their badges. But that's not just the founder dynamic. That's also the fact that if you have a very firm perspective on where you think things are going, you don't have to listen as much to other people.
但是有很多分心的事情。我不知道你是否也听过我们谈论它的那一集，但我觉得，人们正在苹果公司做请愿书。我想象如果史蒂夫·乔布斯有一天来上班，人们会说，“乔布斯先生，您的桌子上有来自800名员工的请愿书。”他会说，“噢，好的。我能看一下吗？” 然后他就看了看名单，把其中的三个人名字划去，让他们来到他的办公室。而另外的997人，他会说，“把这些人送到人力资源部，全部开除并关闭他们的通行证。”但这不仅仅是创始人的动态，更是因为如果你对事物的发展方向非常有决心，你就不必那么多地倾听他人的意见。
But if you are, as you noted, a consensus person with founders over their shoulder and you don't have anything like a control and stake at the company, like, I'm sure, I'm sure Sundar is very wealthy and shout out to him. Well done. But like, I don't think he owns more than what a point to the company. Oh, much less. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And he doesn't have founder 30 like you're saying. He's got the founders in the board over his shoulder. And then he's got to try to keep really talented people in the game.
但是，如果您像您所提到的那样，是一个与创始人并肩合作的共识型人物，但并没有像持有公司控制权和股份这样的东西，像我确定的那样，Sundar一定非常富有，向他致敬。做得好。但是，我不认为他拥有超过公司股票点数的股份。哦，更少。对。对。他没有像您所说的30位创始人那样的身份。他在董事会上与创始人并肩工作，并试图留住真正有才华的人才。
But it's a profitable company. It's an ad-based company still largely. So clouds, diminimists when compared to the ad business. It's moving up. Yeah, moving up. I mean, 7.5 billion in the first quarter, up 28% year over year. It's now bigger than YouTube's ad business. And the only thing bigger than it is search. Now you're right. Compared to the aggregate revenue portion, it's, you know, 12% whatever. But like, it's the only growth thing there. And as we're going to see from Microsoft in just a second, like that remains the story that the cloud is really pulling these majors forward. Like, you know, 3% growth at Google, 7% of Microsoft. But what was the biggest and fastest growing thing? It was Azure, their public cloud.
这是一家盈利的公司，它还主要以广告为基础。与广告业务相比，云业务规模还很小，但正在快速发展。在第一季度，其营收为75亿美元，比去年同期增长了28%。现在，它已经超过了YouTube的广告业务，仅次于搜索业务。确实，与总收入相比，它只占12%等等。但它是唯一的增长点，并且我们将在随后看到的微软公司中看到，云业务确实在推动这些巨头前进。谷歌的增长率为3%，微软为7%，但最大、增长最快的是他们的公有云Azure。
So it's the same story with Microsoft. Although it does feel like there's a little bit more operational discipline. I would say in Redmond, then Mountain View, just because they've been already through the founders are gone. New CEOs come in. Yeah. We've gone to the next stage of that, which is, okay, I didn't go as we planned. So now we need to find the next essentially tech person to lead the thing. So I do in that case.
这就是微软的情况，虽然感觉他们的运营纪律更好一点，我会说在Redmond比Mountain View更好，因为他们已经经历了创始人离开的阶段，新的CEO接替了他们。是的，我们已经进入了下一个阶段，也就是说，计划并没有像我们预期的那样进行，现在我们需要找到下一个能够领导这个事情的技术专家。所以，在这种情况下，我是这样认为的。
And there is a vibe going through Silicon Valley after Twitter reduced their headcam by 80% or so. That was extreme. But that sort of got Zuckerberg on board with, okay, I could go with 10% less. I could go with 20% less. And so now between Elon's 80% in Google, 6% and Zuckerberg's 15, there is some consensus of we can do more with less. And how much less with AI is going to be a big question because meeting developers who now are going faster.
在 Twitter 将其主页加载速度减少80%左右后，硅谷开始流行这种趋势。这是极端的。但这启发了扎克伯格，表示自己可以接受减少10％或20％的主页加载速度。现在，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）的Google减少了6％，而扎克伯格减少了15％，人们开始认为“做更多”的方式就是使用更少的资源。如何通过人工智能来减少使用的资源是一个大问题，因为现在，开发人员正在加速前进。
I was on a website and I've been playing with the plugins. I don't know how much you're doing chat GPT-4, but I've been playing with plugins. I'm like, hmm, this does feel like the bottom 30% of what I do. 30% of what I do could be automated in the next six months. Now that doesn't mean I lose my job. It means I get back 30% of my time and I can deploy it somewhere else. So either way, there's a massive efficiency coming to America, to the world. And I think that is going to change the percentages, the single digit percentages we see here.
我在一个网站上并且一直在试用插件。我不确定你有多少在聊GPT-4，但我一直在试用插件。我意识到，这感觉像我工作中最低30%的部分。在接下来的六个月里，我的工作中可能有30%的部分可以自动化。这并不意味着我失去了工作，而是我能够腾出30%的时间，将其用在其他地方。因此，无论如何都会给美国、全世界带来巨大的效率提升。我认为这将改变我们在这里看到的单个数字百分比。
Two things could double through the combination of attrition of cost and efficiency of who remains. This is a double win that I think is on the horizon and I think this is what works us out of this recession.
通过成本磨损和效率提高的结合，两件事情可能会翻倍增长。这是一种双赢的情况，我认为这就是我们走出这场经济衰退的方式。
So I like nearly all of that, but I want to clarify a point on the use of chat GPT because one thing I think a lot about is GitHub Copilot, which is the thing that helps you write code. And what I'm trying to figure out is, are we getting to the point where self-driving cars are today in terms of Copilot because my Subaru can stay in the lane, it can tell me when it's low, it can't do interest city stuff.
我基本上都很喜欢，但我想就使用聊天GPT这一点作出澄清，因为我一直在思考GitHub Copilot，这是一款帮助你编写代码的工具。我试图弄清楚的是，我们是否已经达到了Copilot方面的自动驾驶汽车的水平，因为我的Subaru可以保持在车道内，并告诉我何时需要加油，但它不能处理复杂的城市交通。
Okay, fair enough. But it's still really great. So is Copilot forget I'm going to be like my car or is it going to be like self-driving autonomous vehicles pretty soon and actually be able to do whole things for me or just assist? And if it's the whole thing, then I mean, I fire out the staff, but if it's just the help, then you're right. 30% back, everyone's more efficient, but it's not like a sea change. It's more of an acceleration. Yeah, so I think your analogy is correct. We're at level two self-driving where you kind of take two functions away.
没错，但这仍然非常棒。Copilot会忘了我，变得像我的汽车一样，还是很快就变成像自动驾驶车辆一样，实际上能够为我做整件事情，还是只是帮助？如果是整件事情，那么我就要解雇员工了，但如果只是帮助，那么你是对的。虽然能够提高30%的效率，但这并不是根本性的改变。这更像是一种加速。是的，我认为你的比喻是正确的。我们处于二级自动驾驶阶段，你可以扔掉两个功能。
So I've adaptive cruise control at seven car, length three car, lengths like even my backup ice engine suburban that I have in case my Tesla's are, you know, something gets the fan and I need to get out of Dodge with gas because there's zombie apocalypse. Sure. That has, it doesn't have a lane control, but it does have adaptive cruise control, right? And then you have on your Subaru both. So highway, you're good, you know, like a chance of getting an accident highway if everybody had that is pretty low and does give you back. It's just less arduous to drive, right? That's what I find is I'm less exhausted after a two or three hour drive to Tahoe.
我在七辆车上安装了自适应巡航控制系统，车长为三车长度，连我的备用汽油引擎雪地车也有这个系统，以防我的特斯拉出了故障，我需要用汽油逃离僵尸启示录。它没有车道控制，但有自适应巡航控制，对吧？你的Subaru两个都有。所以在高速公路上，如果每个人都使用这种系统，发生事故的几率很低，而且会让你更放松。我发现在去Tahoe的2-3小时的车程后，我更不容易疲惫。
I do think your analogy is correct, except on the low end tasks, it does 100%. So I'm trying to think of the right analogy, highway driving versus city driving, sure. But there's a lot of like items of research that we do as journalists or, you know, I was doing a research of LPs because I'm having my angel summon up in Napa. And I was like, you know, I'm going to invite some of the big endowments or whatever see if anybody wants to come. And, you know, I asked it for the large endowments, then I put it in a table, then I said, sword it. And I was like, this is something I'd pay somebody 35 bucks an hour to do.
我认为你的类比是正确的，除了对于低端任务，自动化可以100%完成。所以我正在尝试想出正确的类比，比如高速公路和城市行驶。但是，作为新闻从业者或者像我一样进行研究时，我们需要处理很多相似的研究项，比如我正在研究Napa地区的天使投资者，我想邀请一些大型捐赠基金组织参加，我向这些组织询问了相关信息，然后整理成表格并进行排序，我觉得这是一个值得以35美元每小时的价格请人处理的任务。
I might use Crest base four. So I'm paying a subscription. And it's just kind of doing it. And then I'm playing with the playground on open API. And I'm like, okay, give me the people at the Ford Foundation. I want the Twitter handles. And then I'm like, you know what I really want to do is I want to follow them on Twitter. And then I want to follow them on LinkedIn. I want to like a post or I want to DM them or email them. Now I can't do those last two or three things. And that would be the left hand turn into an intersection. Right.
我可能会使用Crest的四基系统。所以我支付了一个订阅费。然后它就像是在做某些事情。接着我在open API的游乐场中玩，我说“好的，请给我福特基金会的人员名单和Twitter账号。”然后我想，“你知道吗，我真的想在Twitter上关注他们，然后在LinkedIn上关注他们。我想点赞或者发私信或者发送电子邮件给他们。但是我做不到这些最后两三件事，这就像是在一个十字路口里左转一样。”
But I had 17 developers show me they did it in an hour. And I said, this is the next piece I need to do. They're like, I wrote the code for you already. It's like it took me an hour. So I this weekend, I'm going to start playing with some of the dev, you know, sandboxes. And I haven't done developments in space. I can pass gal and, you know, the 90s. And so I, you know, I do think it's going to go faster than self-driving as my long answer to your short question.
但是我有17个开发人员展示给我，他们在一个小时内就做到了。我说，这是我需要做的下一步。他们说，我已经为你编写了代码，只花了一个小时。所以这个周末，我要开始尝试一些开发人员的沙盒。我还没有在太空中进行过开发。我可以通过Gal和90年代。所以，我认为这比自动驾驶要快，这是对你简短问题的长答案。
I really hope you're right. But here's the problem that I see. When I look at all the stuff Microsoft is doing, they are doing co-pilot for X. They're building AI into exchange or into dynamic CRM or whatever. I don't cool. Thank you. That's great. Thank you.
我真的希望你是对的。但这里我看到的问题是，当我看到微软正在做的所有东西时，他们正在为X打造副驾驶。他们正在将人工智能整合到Exchange或动态CRM中。我不太明白。谢谢你。那太棒了。谢谢。
But what I want is a new separate program that is at the OS level that can interact with everything for me and that I can give increasing complex demands to. I wanted to say go to my email, pull 10 names, drop those into a Google sheet, send that to Bob and then I want you to grab me 10 stock prices, print them out or whatever. You know, I just, I want Siri but amazing and I wanted to have these functions that are now possible, things to LLMs.
我想要的是一个新的独立的程序，位于操作系统层，能够与所有内容互动，并且我可以给它越来越复杂的需求。比如我想让它去我的电子邮件里抓取10个人的名字，将它们放到谷歌表格中，然后将它们发送给鲍勃，接着我想让你帮我获取10项股票价格，并将它们打印出来或其他事情。你知道的，我只是想要拥有令人惊叹的Siri，并且我希望这些现在可能的功能，成为可用的LLM功能。
And my vibe is if LLMs can write code as they pretty much can. Yeah. And if they can take complex spoken assignments and figure out what to say next, why can't they write code and figure out what to do and say next in a way that we couldn't before and then let them just do a lot. And so if this is a, it's everyone is Friday, I'm very tired. So like that wasn't the best explanation that I'm trying to say.
我的看法是，LLM可以写代码，他们几乎能够做到。是的。如果他们可以接受复杂的口头任务并想出下一步该说什么，为什么不能编写代码并想出下一步该做什么和说什么，以一种我们以前无法想象的方式，然后让他们做很多工作。因此，如果这是一个情况，每个人都很疲倦，就像这不是我想要表达的最好解释。
I think it's a great one actually. You're describing a workflow and then you're describing you don't want to have to stitch the workflow together and make sure it works. You want to tell an AI what the workflow is and haven't done. And I am using plugins right now. I was able to get on plugins this week as somebody at an open AI was nice enough to push me up the list. And I started using Expedia and kayaks and I have a trip next week where I'm going down to Laguna and I'm speaking about AI in the quality space of things.
我认为这是一个非常好的想法。你描述了一个工作流程，然后又描述了你不想把工作流程拼凑在一起检查它是否可行。你想要告诉人工智能工作流程是什么，然后让它干活。我现在正在使用插件。上周，一位开放AI的成员很好心地将我推到了列表的前面，让我能够使用Expedia和Kayak。我下周有一次旅行，我将要到Laguna，谈论品质空间的人工智能。
And it turns out like a lot of the first things are hospitalities, open table, kayaks, Expedia. And I'm like, okay. So I start asking them, can you please tell me what are the closest airports to Laguna right? Because I know I can go to Long Beach, etc. And then give me a list of flights, sort them by, um, length of flight and then distance to Laguna. And it couldn't get that second piece, but I got the first piece. And I was like, okay, it's almost there. And then the next piece I would normally do if I was going to be there for a week was tell me the top rated restaurants on Yelp and then search the web and look for eater listings of the hot new restaurants. Give me a list of those. And tell me what the top three dishes that you play, each place or I put them on a map.
结果，我发现有很多第一件事是关于接待方面的，像是开放餐桌、皮艇、Expedia等。于是我开始问他们，请问拉古娜最近的机场有哪些？因为我知道我可以去长滩等地方。然后请给我列出一个航班清单，按航班时间和距离拉古娜的远近排列。虽然我没有得到第二部分，但是我得到了第一部分。我想，好的，已经接近了。如果我要在那里待一周的话，我会跟他们要求列出Yelp上评价最高的餐厅，然后在网上查找新餐厅的餐饮列表，并给我列出一个清单。并告诉我每个地方的前三道最佳菜肴，我可以在地图上标记它们。
Yeah. It's going to be a good idea by the end of the year. And then when I can do that, we'll be voice. That's going to be, that's, that's the thing. Because then I can be typing and also talking and I can get two things done at once. But back to you, what about the hospitality section in the sector and AI?
没错。到年底时这个想法会变得更好。那么当我能够做到这一点时，我们就可以使用语音了。这将是，这是，那就是事情所在。因为那样我就可以同时打字和讲话，完成两件事情。但回到你的话题，关于酒店业和AI的部分，你有什么看法？
My first thought was, that's ridiculous. My second thought was where are labor costs the highest percentage of cogs? Probably hospitality. Yeah. So the course of going to go to the AI first. Yeah. So that was what it was. I mean, a lot of the costiers, yeah. A lot of that stuff is going to, we're going to see what we saw during COVID, I think, with, I don't know if you had this experience where a restaurant that had, you know, couldn't get waiters and you're like, yeah, two for lunch, we don't have a reservation. And they're like, yeah, it's going to be half an hour. And you're like, but there's a third of the tables are open and they go, yeah, we don't have enough servers or back, back of how staff to cook the food. So if we see you, we're still not going to be able to serve you. And you're like, can I sit at the table in an hour? And you're just like, this is a very weird moment. And then they put toast or one of those systems in. Yeah.
我的第一反应是这太荒谬了。我的第二个想法是哪个行业的劳动力成本占成本的最高比例？可能是酒店业。所以我们打算先去找AI。是的。因为成本中有很多东西是像COVID期间我们看到的那样的，我想你也有这样的经历，去了一家餐馆，想吃午餐，没有预订，他们说要等半小时，但是有三分之一的桌子都是空着的，他们说“我们没有足够的服务员或者烹饪人员来做饭，所以即使我们看到你，我们仍然无法为你服务。”你问：“我可以在一个小时后坐在桌子上吗？”，你会觉得很奇怪。然后他们就用了Toast或者其他一些系统。
Where they get rid of waiters, you order it yourself, you pay for it yourself. They took two thirds of the, they just have runners now, right? And pretty much. That's all. Sam and Tale right now. All right.
他们消除了服务员，你自己点餐，自己付款。他们只留了三分之二的员工，现在只剩下送餐员了，对吧？大概就是这样。现在只有Sam 和 Tale工作。好的。
Probably the most challenging thing I hear from founders is related to building either they aren't technical and they're searching for a technical co-founder or they can code, but they're just spread way too thin. This is one of the first major obstacles you're going to face as a founder. And it can be discouraging, right? We all know that. You're spread then and you can't get the product velocity. It's very frustrating. You know what to do, but you're just stuck in the execution phase.
创始人们告诉我最具挑战性的事情之一是建立技术团队，要么他们不具备技术能力，因此在寻找技术合伙人，要么他们会编程，但分心分散。这是作为创始人面临的第一个主要障碍。这可能让你感到灰心。我们都知道这种感觉。你太过繁忙、无法推动产品进展，非常令人沮丧。你知道该怎么做，但却被困在执行阶段。
So here's a solution. Let crowd bodix be your CTO is a service and boom, just like that, you can focus on building awesome products and delighting your customers rather than wasting your time on infrastructure, planning, architecture, compliance and the boring stuff. Crowd bodix also offers professional scoping to help you flesh out your project at the MVP stage and beyond. So cut out the hassle and get back to building that perfect product. When you think about crowd bodix, I want you to think getting time back to focus on your product and customers, product drives everything. So let the folks at crowd bodix show you how it works. Schedule a free scoping session and get your detailed build plan at crowdbotix.com slash twist. That's crowd B-O-T-I-C-S dot com slash twist.
这里有一个解决方案。让Crowd Bodix成为你的首席技术官，这是一项服务，你可以把精力集中在开发出优秀的产品和惬意的客户体验上，而不是浪费时间在基础设施、规划、架构、合规性和无聊的事情上。Crowd Bodix还提供专业的范围确定，帮助你在MVP阶段和以后发展你的项目。所以消除麻烦，回到开发完美产品的重心上。当你想到Crowd Bodix时，我希望你能想到能够把时间集中在产品和客户上，产品驱动一切。所以让Crowd Bodix的人向你展示它是如何工作的。安排一次免费的范围确定会议，并在crowdbotix.com/twist上获得你的详细构建计划。那就是crowd B-O-T-I-C-S点com/twist。
I'm going to drag myself by the scratch of the neck back to the earnings thing and just say a couple of quick things, Azure growth, 26% in the next quarter. So pretty good looking ahead. And Microsoft is already attributing 1% of Azure's growth, which is their public cloud, to AI in the next quarter. And Jamin Ball, who used to be at red point and is now at a. Hemeter, I think. Anyways, he does a lot of really great analysis on text docs. And he said, I think that that 1% works out to like 450 million in revenue for Azure AI already. So that's actually real nine figure dollars. That I think matters a lot. And then elsewhere in Microsoft, I'm not going to go through this all linked in and so forth. But Windows, not so good. Everything else, medium, good company made. It's Q3 net income, fiscal Q3 calendar Q1. Jason, $18.3 billion. That's cash in the bank. We got it. We secured the bag. I mean, they could buy, you know, it's a billion and a half a week. It's $200 million a day. Like I'm saying, I'm so poor. And it's a money printing machine. It's a money printing machine. And they did layoffs too. And they're getting people back to the office.
我要努力挣扎着回到盈利领域，并说几句快速的话，Azure增长在下个季度将会达到26%，这看起来非常不错。微软已经将Azure增长的1%（它是他们的公共云）归因于下个季度的人工智能。Jamin Ball曾在red point工作，现在在a. Hemeter，他进行了很多有关文本文档的优秀分析。他说，我认为那1%的收入已经为Azure AI带来了4.5亿美元，这实际上是真正的9位数美元。我认为这非常重要。微软的其他业务表现中，Windows并不好，其他中等的业务表现良好。第三财季净收入为183亿美元，是现金储备。我们得到了它。我意思是，他们可以每周购买15亿美元，每天购买2亿美元。我太穷了。这是一个赚钱的机器。他们也进行了裁员，正在让人们回到办公室。
And I do think that cloud is going to see significant gains because of AI, because every company I'm working with, to spend $1,000 extra, so you have $150,000 developer. And you spend $1,000 on AI credits for that developer to be faster. So you spend 8% of their salary or something, but you're making prices faster. 50% is fast. Like, this is a pretty good bargain. It's like paying for Grammarly for a writer, you know, and you're like, okay, Grammarly is 10 bucks a month. And you're going to not make as many spelling errors. I don't need to get a proof for you. Great. So it's, I think we're.
我认为由于人工智能的推动，云计算将会获得显著的利润。每个我合作的公司都会额外花费1000美元用于一个15万美元的开发者身上，再花费1000美元用于开发者的人工智能学分以加快进度。虽然它占了他们薪水的8％，但是这让工作进展得更快，快了至少50％。这很划算，就像为作家支付Grammarly一样，你会花费10美元/月，而你的拼写错误会减少，你不再需要为此付费。因此，我认为我们将看到云计算的显著增长。
Oh. Yeah. I just, I need both had an idea. Jason. I'm just describing essentially the, the ability for software to increase human productivity. And then you're looking at the cost of humans and then kind of working that back to the efficiency of software and how it's a good deal. Yeah. This actually means that we could essentially tie the price of software to the cost of human labor. And as humans get more expensive, it becomes effectively more valuable. You're going to charge more for it. So what we should do is raise them in a way to $100 an hour and then every tech company will be worth $40 trillion. I think you're going to. And this is going to be the natural tension that occurs. We're going to see the concept of a 10 X developer is changing that developer who, you know, was super girl or Superman and they could fly. And the other superheroes were like Batman or the flash. They can't exactly fly, but they can do some cool stuff.
哦，是的，我想到了一个想法。杰森，基本上我正在描述软件如何提高人类生产力的能力。然后你会考虑到人类的成本，然后再回到软件的效率和它是如何划算的。是的，这意味着我们可以将软件的价格与人力成本挂钩。随着人类变得更昂贵，软件的价值也会相应提高，你会收取更高的价格。因此，我们应该将人工成本提高到每小时100美元的水平，这样每个科技公司都将价值40万亿美元。我认为你会这么做的。这将会是自然出现的紧张局势。我们将会看到10倍开发者的概念正在改变，那些超级少数人才像超人一样能飞，而其他的超级英雄像蝙蝠侠或闪电侠则不行，但他们可以做一些很酷的事情。
Yeah. And it's like, okay, guess what? Everybody in the justice league cannot fly. And you're like, hmm, okay, that changes the dynamic. Well, people who are, you know, a 2X developer, not a 10 X developer, they're going to become 7X developers. And the 7X is going to become a 10. You're just going to have a lot more really fast developers, which means software is going to move it a faster pace. And it's all going to be deflationary. So software will get cheaper and talent will get cheaper. You could already see on the websites like Fiverr and stuff like that that people who scrape things like CrunchBase or pitch book or LinkedIn, those jobs of like, hey, I can find you leads for a dollar. Are now I can find you 10 leads for a dollar. I can find a lead for a penny. I can do a scraping job. I can do. And that's all because of AI and scripting. So it's just going to be continued deflationary impact until I think there'll be a choice of either redeploying those people's times. Yeah. So I think that's a lot more. You know, reducing headcount and reducing costs. And so you'll see a bit of both looking at meta.
是的。这就像是，好的，你猜怎么着？正义联盟中的每个人都不能飞行。你可能会想，嗯，好的，这改变了整个情况。那么，那些只是2倍开发人员的人将成为7倍开发人员。而7倍的人将成为10倍。你就会有更多非常快速的开发人员，这意味着软件将以更快的速度移动。这一切都将是通货紧缩的。因此，软件将变得更便宜，人才也将变得更便宜。你已经可以在像Fiverr之类的网站上看到，那些像CrunchBase、pitch book或LinkedIn这样的人刮取资料的工作，就像是“嘿，我能为你找到潜在客户，只要一美元。”现在变成了我能为你找到10位潜在客户，只要一美元。我甚至可以为你找到一个潜在客户，只要一分钱。我可以做一个爬虫任务。这些全都是因为人工智能和脚本。因此，这只会继续产生通货紧缩的影响，直到我认为要么重新部署这些人的时间。是的。因此，我认为这将减少人头计数和降低成本。因此，您将看到一些元人工（Meta）的表现。
I think that's a.
我认为这是一个。
So anyway, Microsoft crushed it again. Incredible job. You might have met us like way because I was thinking what would be your strategy there. Your sentence. It was going to be something like, you know what else is not driving efficiency. The metaverse.
话说微软又获得了巨大的成功，干得太棒了。也许我们已经见过了，因为我一直在思考你在那里的策略。你曾经说过的话。应该是这样的，“你知道什么不会提高效率吗？元宇宙。”
Hey. Oh, hey, sorry. It's just like, you got to even credit. He's like, I don't want to get disrupted.
嘿。哦，嘿，抱歉。就像你要平等地给予认可一样。他说他不想被打扰。
So I'm going to do a crypto project. And then he's like, the world really doesn't want me to control crypto after I screwed up elections and dozens of countries and created, you know, you know, all kinds of psychological issues in young children and eating disorders.
所以我打算做一个加密货币项目。然后他说，由于我在选举中搞砸了很多国家，并在年轻儿童中制造了各种心理问题和进食障碍，所以全世界真的不希望我控制加密货币。
So he pivots off of crypto. Remember that crypto project we're going to do? Libra, whatever it was going to be. And he hasn't pivoted off of Oculus and metaverse, but he certainly has not talked about it. And he talked about AI a lot more in these earnings calls.
因此，他开始从加密货币方面转向。还记得我们要做的那个加密货币项目吗？Libra，不管它最终会变成什么样子。他并没有放弃Oculus和元宇宙，但他确实没有谈论这些。相反，在这些收益电话中，他更多地谈到了人工智能。
So he wants to win. I bought the stock at $94. The Monday after he said he was going to cut 10,000 people. It's the best trade I've made in a while. And his stock continues to go higher because they had negative revenue growth for three quarters.
他想赢。我以94美元的价格购买了这支股票。在他宣布他将裁员1万人后的那个周一，我进行了最好的交易。由于上一季度的营收出现负增长，他的股票继续上涨。
This made people believe that this was, okay, you're AOL. This is the start of the slide down. You hit a peak and now we're going on the other side of the hill. But he cut headcount significantly. I know there were 4,000 more layoffs recently, 11,000 more in 2022.
这引起了人们的信心下滑，他们开始认为这是AOL的根本问题。之前的高峰已经过去，现在我们正在经历下坡路的另一侧。但他大幅裁员了。最近已经有4000人失业，2022年将有11000人失业。
But now the other part of the financial playbook, Alphabet Google said they're going to buy back $70 billion. He says he's going to buy back $9 billion. And so all of that put together, I think, has led people to believe that he wants to win. And he is nimble.
现在金融策略书的另一部分，Alphabet谷歌表示他们将回购700亿美元。他说他将回购90亿美元。所有这些加起来，我认为，人们认为他想获胜。他很灵活。
So you look at Google, not nimble. Microsoft, super nimble. Zuckerberg, most nimble. And so if you're going to place a bet, you're going to place a bet on Microsoft and Zuckerberg right now and you're going to move your money out of Google into those two companies. And if you don't agree with that, you can send an email to Jason's email address and not mine.
所以你应该注视微软和扎克伯格，而不是谷歌。微软非常敏捷，而扎克伯格则是最敏捷的。如果你要下注，你应该把赌注放在微软和扎克伯格身上，然后把你的钱从谷歌撤出来投入到这两个公司中。如果你不同意这种观点，可以给杰森的邮箱发邮件，而不是我的邮箱。
But to kind of carry on your point, they did post revenue growth, 3% in the first quarter. Obviously, to your point, not a growth stock. But if you go from negative growth to positive growth, it's literally day, sorry, night to day. Like the sun comes out. There's a future in front of you. Cash flows might expand, especially if you're laying off people.
但是，为了延续你的观点，他们确实发布了第一季度的收入增长，增长了3％。显然，根据你的观点，它不是一个成长型股票。但是，如果你从负增长变成正增长，就像白天和黑夜一样。就像太阳出来了一样，你面前有未来。特别是如果你解雇员工，现金流可能会扩大。
My beef though with the company's results is all that's great. And the company had net income of 5.7 billion. That's a lot of money. Congratulations. They're they're spending on the metaverse stuff is still incredibly high. I forget the exact number, but I think the operating loss on reality labs was just around 4 billion quarter and unbelievable.
我的不满之处在于公司的业绩，但一切都非常出色。该公司的净收入达到了57亿美元，这是一笔可观的收入，恭喜他们。然而，他们在元宇宙方面的投资仍然非常高。我忘记了确切的数字，但我想在现实实验室上的运营亏损仅在本季度达到了约40亿美元，这令人难以置信。
That's huge. You're they're not being nimble of getting away from that. I think it's going to be hard to slow it down. And I think he still believes Apple is going to release their heads at the end of the year, which we keep hearing.
这太巨大了。你们现在没有灵活地逃离这种局面。我认为要减缓这种局面会很难。而且我认为他仍然相信苹果公司会在年底发布他们的产品，这也是我们一直听说的。
And that he needs to be part of that. And so while AI is clearly going to change everything, he still believes and Apple still believes that AR is going to change everything. So is it possible for us to have two platform shifts at the same time? Of course it is.
他需要成为新技术的一部分。因此，虽然人工智能显然将改变一切，但他仍然相信，苹果仍然相信增强现实将改变一切。所以我们是否可能同时有两个平台转变呢？当然可能。
We had cloud computing and mobile having at the same time. So it's not like. Awesome. Yeah. Because you combine the two. Your photos were suddenly on when from being on micro SD cards and offloading and external hard drives to all of a sudden mobile me becomes iCloud and it works and Google photos works, right? They bought Picasso, whatever. And now we had something on our mobile phones that was a huge problem and arduous and everybody's going to best buy to get memory cards and memory card readers. And now all of those are collecting dust because it's all abstracted to the cloud via mobile.
我们现在可以在手机上实现云计算和移动存储，这就变得非常方便了。因为我们现在可以把手机照片从微型SD卡和外接硬盘上转移到iCloud或Google Photos等云端平台，使用起来非常便捷。之前在手机上存储照片真的是很头疼，所有人都不得不到Best Buy去购买大容量的存储卡和读卡器，现在这些用处不大，因为我们可以通过手机与云端进行数据共享。
Well, now you put AI and AR together. Well, who knows how those two come together, but the mind does start to think about really interesting applications?
那么，现在将AI和AR结合起来。谁知道这两者如何结合，但思维确实开始想到非常有趣的应用了呢？
Yeah. I'll just say this. I'm a long-term VR ball. I'm a short-term VR bear because I just bought a new gaming PC the other month and I did not buy fancy nerd goggles for it. And I'm just waiting for the reason to do it. And I'm going to do it. I have a send racing setup. I didn't have a child until recently so I had a lot more free money.
嗯，我想说的是，我是个长期支持虚拟现实的人。不过我在短期内有些悲观，因为前几个月我刚买了一台新的游戏电脑，但还没买上高级的VR头盔，所以我一直在等一个购买的理由。不过我打算一定会买的。我已经有了一个模拟赛车设备，之前没有孩子时有很多空闲的钱。
But I'm going to do it. And I just don't know yet. So to me, it almost feels like they're like the iPad. It's like the pre-iPad smartphone when they're taking an old OS idea, putting it in the wrong form factor. It's not quite there yet, but something's going to break the log jam. And maybe this is the right long-term bet. But at four billion a quarter, it's a hard, it's a hard, hot option to keep paying the rate on. You know?
但我打算去做。但我还不知道怎么做。对我来说，它几乎就像是 iPad。就像是在错误的形式因素中放置旧操作系统思想的智能手机之前。它还没完全到位，但是肯定有些事情会打破这个僵局。也许这是正确的长期投注。但每个季度40亿美元，很难继续付费。你知道吗？
Every single Thanksgiving in Christmas, somebody's going to bring the new Oculus. I'm going to try it. I'm going to do the try. Oh my and goodbye. I'm going to put it on and go, wow, they made great progress. And then I'm going to hand it back to whoever brought it and be like, thanks. And I did it again.
每个感恩节和圣诞节，总有人带来新的 Oculus。我想尝试一下。我会试试看。哦，我要告别了。我会戴上它，然后惊叹，他们取得了很大的进步。然后我会把它交给带来它的人，说声谢谢。我又一次做到了。
This Thanksgiving, I played a game. That was like a breakout game. I played a Star Wars game. I got about 30 minutes of time twice. And I was like, that's enough for me. I want to play Age of Empires or like a real-time strategy game like Starcraft II. Those are more appealing to me than these VR games as impressive as the technology is.
这个感恩节，我玩了一款游戏，就像打砖块一样。我玩了一款星球大战游戏，两次玩了约30分钟，但我认为这已经足够了。我更想玩那些实时策略游戏，比如帝国时代或星际争霸II，而不是这些虚拟现实游戏，尽管技术很先进，但对我没有那么吸引力。
But I do you think there's a material difference between VR and AR in this regard? Because I am a VR, I am VR not interested and I'm AR fascinated. So I remember the first time I put on maybe the only time I wore Microsoft's HoloLens product. Years and years and years ago, probably, gosh, forever ago. And they were still in like the development form. They're like, big wires coming out of them. And I got to play with an AR, kind of like Roblox type game, or sorry, Minecraft type game in the real world, mind blowing.
你认为在这方面，虚拟现实（VR）和增强现实（AR）有明显的差别吗？因为我对VR不感兴趣，但我对AR非常着迷。我还记得第一次戴上可能是我唯一戴过的微软HoloLens产品，这是很多年前的事情，大概是很久很久以前。它们还在开发阶段，还有很多线缆，我可以在现实世界中体验AR游戏，就像Roblox类型的游戏或者是Minecraft类型的游戏，简直是超乎想象的体验。
And so going back to our AI idea about combining workflows together and having more speech built into these products and so forth, you're still going to want to have the ability to have written text appear to you. So there may be some sort of ability to take AR and AI and make them into something that's quite interesting in a unified sense. But I don't actually think that's a gaming context. I think that's a work slash life context, not an entertainment context. I agree. And that's exciting to me.
因此，回到我们关于将工作流程结合起来，并且在这些产品中加入更多的语音等AI想法，你仍然会想要有文字出现的能力。因此，可能会有一些将AR和AI结合在一起的能力，使它们成为一个统一而有趣的事物。但我并不认为这是游戏环境。我认为这是一个工作/生活环境的上下文，而不是一个娱乐的环境。我同意。这让我很兴奋。
So yeah, I can see that. It's like a guide. You know, you're like, hey, Siri. And then all of a sudden this person pops up and you're like, can you get me the legal assistant and the legal assistant pops up? And now you have like Princess Leia being projected from R2D to in your field division. And you're like, hey, I need to do a non disclosure agreement for with this person. I wanted to last, you know, a year and the in what jurisdiction do you reside? You know, like, California, what jurisdiction do they reside? I'm like, London. They're like, oh, okay. Well, you're going to need to file one in London because, you know, it doesn't apply the California law to there. And you need to answer these six questions. Would you like to answer them now? And the as like, oh, I actually have four of those answers for you. Like that, this is a compelling future.
嗯，我能理解这个概念，就像一个指南一样。你知道，你可以喊“嘿，Siri！” 然后突然出现了一个人，你说“你能帮我联系一下法律助手吗？” 然后法律助手就出现了。现在你有了从R2D2中投射出来的莱娅公主，你说“嘿，我需要和这个人签订一份保密协议，希望它能持续一年，在哪个司法管辖区呢？” 你知道，比如加州，而他们在哪里呢？我说“伦敦”，他们说“好的，那你需要在伦敦提交一份，因为加州的法律并不适用于那里。” 然后他们会问你六个问题，你现在要回答吗？如果你说“我已经有其中四个答案了”，这就是一个非常吸引人的未来。
And the minority report or Blade Runner where he's like, move five to the left, zoom in here, go there. And he's talking to the computer, like analyzing a picture. That's the stuff that's going to get super interesting, I think. And the workflow you described being super frustrating for you. Yeah. Make, you know, get me these earnings reports, send it in an email, put it into a Google sheet. You combine that with AR. And it's happening on a desktop over here. And you mentioned I'm working over here.
在《异种战场》或《银翼杀手》等影片中，他会对着电脑说“向左移动五个单位，放大这里，去那里”。这种通过与计算机对话来分析图片的技术，我认为将会变得极为有趣。而你所描述的工作流程对你来说非常令人沮丧。是的。制作报告，将其通过电子邮件发送，放入Google表格中。你将这个过程与AR结合起来，这一切将在这里的台式电脑上进行，你提到你在这里工作。
So hey, I'm doing a podcast. I'm talking to Jake Al and I'm like, I asked you a question. Hey, what was blackberries earning decline? You're like, hold on a second. Can I get blackberries earning decline in a chart from the peak to the trial? And it's like, boom, it comes up on the screen. Yeah, coming right up. This stuff is going to be incredible.
嘿，我正在做一个播客。我正在和Jake Al交谈，我问了他一个问题。嘿，黑莓的收益下降了多少？你说，等一下。我能从顶峰到低谷得到一个黑莓收益下降的图表吗？然后屏幕上就像“轰”一声，它出现了。这个东西会非常了不起。
Congratulations to Zuckerberg. He's staying remote too. That's another interesting sort of rub to it. And it seems like he will keep cutting people until morale and performance continues. So the buildings will continue until morale improves. I use that in the headline, but I flip that I said, the layoffs will continue until investor morale improves. And it seems to have finally worked out because Facebook and all these companies were talking about that they had the best post earnings share price appreciation. People were very excited about what they were doing because they returned to gross. They cut a lot of people and they said the magic word, which is AI, a million times on the earnings call and investors lost their **** and they were so happy. This is where AI would come and helpful. Hey, AI, can you tell me for each of these earnings calls how many times AI was mentioned?
祝贺扎克伯格，他也远程办公。这是一个有趣的情况，看起来他会继续优化公司绩效，直到士气提升。所以公司的建设将继续，直到员工士气得到改善。我在标题中用了这个说法，但我反过来说，裁员将不断进行，直到投资者士气得到改善。最终，这种方法似乎起效了，因为Facebook和其他公司都声称在发布盈利数据后，股价增长表现最佳。人们对他们所做的感到非常激动，因为他们实现了增长，并裁掉了很多人，还多次提到了AI，这令投资者非常满意。这就是AI发挥作用的地方。嘿，AI，你能告诉我在这些盈利数据中提到了多少次AI吗？
And we could just chart that and we just chart it over time for the last four quarters and say, I loved a friend of the pod, Greg Gersoners, tweet. I think I guess he went to mid-journey and I heard there's a discord. My kids were on my wife were on the at dinner in a discord doing mid-journey making Jedi bulldogs and here's what Brad made. He made Zuckerberg looking like he was on the juice on steroids, taking PEs, PEs, he looks like Westbrook. He looks like Westbrook's taking PEs either, but no, he looks like Superman not wearing a blue, a blue speedo. It's a bit much.
我们可以制作一个图表，并将其与过去四个季度的时间一起制作成图表，例如，我喜欢朋友Greg Gersoners的推文。我想我猜他去了“中间之旅”（Mid-journey），并且听说有一个不和谐的地方。我的孩子们和妻子正在用中间之旅中的材料做绝地武士斗牛犬。这是Brad所做的：他让扎克伯格看起来像在服用类固醇，像是在服用PES（限能剂），他看起来像Westbrook（美国职业篮球运动员），但不是像穿着蓝色裹裆，而是像超人。这有点太过了。
But what I like about that particular thing is it captured the core elements of Zuckerberg's face, but it actually aged him a bit and he looked. Yes, he looked there more like he was like 45. I don't know how old he is today, but he looked older there and I don't think it didn't look bad on him.
但我喜欢那件事情的原因是它捕捉到了扎克伯格脸部的核心元素，但它实际上让他显得有些年老了，看上去更像45岁。我不知道他今天多大了，但他在那个画面里显得更成熟，我认为并不难看。
No, maybe that's because that's predictive AI via mid-journey. This is what I'm witnessing with all my friends. I hit 52 years ago. All of my friends who are in their 50s now are like, you know what? I'll be dead soon, I might as well have the best body of my entire life in my 50s. And they're like, you can do a shakeout. All you have to do is work out four times a week and eat chicken without the skin on it. And you too can have the best body and look like Jeff Bezos or AI Zuckerberg. So you just have to sacrifice food and lift everything. Pleasure, yeah. Sure. I'll lift everything. I'll do cardio. And since I gave up drinking, I'm going to eat candy, like not negotiable. Like, I will die with a candy. What do you got to go to? Are you a chocolate sour candy, your equal opportunity? What do you, what do you, what do you, what your, there's a pretty main candy sub-verkles. There's chocolate, there's fruit, and then there's sour. And to me, each has such a high peak to it that you must visit all three mountains on a regular basis. Very cool. Wow. Look at that. Sometimes on the same night, while consuming some California-based vaping products. Perfect. You can just absolutely. Herbs will enhance the flavor I can confirm from a friend. Yes. Yes.
不，可能是因为这是通过中途的预测性AI。这就是我和我所有朋友所看到的。我52岁了。我现在50多岁的所有朋友都是这样想的：你知道吗？我很快就会死了，我可能在我50多岁的时候拥有整个人生最好的身体。他们说，你可以淘汰掉不必要的东西。你只需要每周锻炼四次，并吃带皮的鸡肉。然后你也可以拥有最好的身体，看起来像杰夫·贝佐斯或人工智能扎克伯格。所以你只需要牺牲食物并举起一切。享乐，是的。我会举起一切的。我会做有氧运动。自从我戒酒以来，我就要吃糖果，这是不可谈判的。我会和糖果一起死去。你喜欢吃什么糖果？是巧克力，还是酸味糖果，你都喜欢吗？糖果有很多种，有巧克力、水果和酸味。对我来说，每一种都有如此高的峰值，以至于你必须经常去参观所有三座山峰。非常酷。哇，看那个。有时候在同一个晚上，同时吸一些加州基础的电子烟产品。完美。你绝对可以这样做。我可以从一位朋友确认，草药会增强味道。是的，是的。
Anyways, Amazon. Yes. Hey, speaking about green things, Amazon makes a lot of money. AWS is doing well, but actually had lower, I think it was operating income than last year. Did that worry you, Jason? You know, I'm a shareholder in Amazon. I believe in Amazon. I believe they're not fit. I think they need to keep laying people off. Amazon web services growth is slowing. And I know what's happening here. I am not concerned about the slowdown in cloud computing.
Amazon是一个很棒的公司。它赚了很多钱，尤其是通过AWS。不过，今年AWS的运营利润似乎比去年要低。这让你担心吗，Jason？作为一个Amazon的股东，我相信Amazon的未来。我认为该公司需要继续裁员，因为AWS的增长速度已经开始放缓。但我不担心云计算市场增速的下滑。
We talked earlier about people who were signing leases for two years from now, hiring people from two years from now. The same thing happened in cloud. People were provisioning and they were basically like somebody who didn't have to keep track of what's in their pantry, just filling the pantry. So they were, you know, developers were putting up instances never turning them off and they just were not, you know, managing the pantry as tightly as they should. Now when you saw the layoffs happen last year and you saw the contraction in the economy, everybody said, what is our spend?
我们之前谈到了签订两年租约、聘请两年后的人的人们。云计算领域也出现了同样的情况。人们在配置资源时，就像从未关心过自己的食品储藏室一样，不停地填充着资源。因此，开发人员们设立实例后就不再关闭，也没有像应该那样严格管理资源。去年发生的裁员和经济收缩，导致所有人都开始关注自己的开支。
Now I was, I'm not going to say specific names, but we had like a couple of different email products we were using. They were costing thousands of dollars a month. And we had a bunch of mailing lists and we were getting charge based on the size of the mailing list. And I'm like, we haven't even know this list in a year. And I said, do you remember, can you put that list for founder university for our angel summit or our angel university? Can you just put those on a sub stack, a sub stack tray? Well, actually, I put them on review before Twitter got rid of review. Oh, I've here review. Or I've here review. But I was like, wait a second, sub stack is free. I sent this list once a year, maybe twice. I don't need to pay a monthly fee for this. And so boom, all of a sudden $40,000 less in email fees across two companies. I'll get you to about hundreds of thousands of emails now. Yeah, no, I'm just saying that's a material savings. I'm trying to say car. It's half of a salary, if somebody, right? There you go.
现在我不想透露具体的名字，但我们曾经使用过几种不同的邮件产品。它们每个月的费用高达数千美元。我们有一堆邮件列表，而我们的费用是基于邮件列表的大小计算的。我想，我们已经有一年没有使用这个列表了。我说，你还记得吗? 你能不能把这个列表放到创始人大学，我们的天使峰会或者天使大学上？你能不能把这些列表放到sub stack上？事实上，在Twitter取消review之前，我已经把它们放到review上了。但是我突然意识到，Sub stack是免费的。我一年只发一次，也许两次邮件，我不需要为此付月费。这样，两家公司的邮件费立即减少了4万美元。我现在有数十万封邮件。是啊，我只是想说这是一项重大的节省。就像你说的，这相当于半个薪水，是吗？
So I think that's what's happening is everybody looked at their Amazon bills. And when your revenue is going up, top line's going up, you know, like whatever, who cares? This is like not that much money. But when you have to get rid of two people in your department, you're like, you know what? Do we have stuff we can move from the live storage to the glacial storage that does it need to be as fast? Oh, we had these instances running. Oh, we have this many CDNs. We don't need that much. Or let's renegotiate. And so the great renegotiations has occurred, that's what I think the slow down is. It's not usage or utilization. People are using the cloud more than ever.
我认为目前的情况是人们开始审视他们的亚马逊账单。当你的收入不断增长，上线也不断上涨，你会认为这不算多的钱，没必要在意。但是当你需要裁员时，你会开始思考：我们有没有可以从当前的存储空间移到更冷的存储空间中的东西，这些数据需要这么快吗？我们一直有这些实例在运行，我们需要这么多的内容分发网络吗？是不是可以重新协商？所以我认为云计算市场的主要矛盾在于重新协商，而不是使用或利用率。人们正在比以往更频繁地使用云计算。
It's just people are negotiating harder with their cloud providers and they're hiding up. And that's why you're seeing this belt tightening, which means people aren't being wasteful, which means I actually think these businesses are stronger than the percentage growth decline is shown. Hard to agree with all of that. Also, we're lapping some pretty impressive results from a year ago, which were predicated on not the same belt tightening. So the fact that we're still seeing double digit growth across all three major cloud providers is very impressive.
现在人们正在与云服务提供商更加严格地协商，并且他们正在保守信息。这就是为什么你看到收紧带子，这意味着人们不会浪费，这也意味着我认为这些企业比百分比增长下降所显示的更加强大。这有些难以苟同。此外，我们正在重复一年前的一些非常令人印象深刻的结果，而这些结果的基础不是相同的收紧带子。因此，尽管看到三大主要云服务提供商的增长率仍然保持在两位数令人印象深刻。
The only caveat to what you said is that in Amazon's earnings call, I was going back through it today writing about this exact issue, actually. And they said that they were running growth in April for AWS was running 500 Bips below Q1, which means five percentage points. If you don't do Bips out there, 16 minus five is 11. 11 is very close to nine.
你说的唯一需要注意的是，在亚马逊的盈利电话会议上，我今天回顾了这个问题，实际上正在写关于它的文章。他们表示，AWS在四月份的增长率比第一季度低了500个基点，也就是五个百分点。如果你不熟悉基点，16减去五等于11。11非常接近九。
Nine is single digit growth rate. And that doesn't change our thesis about cloud, but for Amazon in particular, given that their e-commerce business is unprofitable internationally and occasionally unprofitable in North America, they can't really afford to have their main growth engine and profit source slip a gear.
“九”是单位数字增长率。这并不改变我们对云计算的投资理念，但对于亚马逊来说，特别是考虑到他们的跨境电商业务不盈利、在北美地区有时也不盈利，他们无法承受其主要的增长引擎和利润来源失速的风险。
And so I agree with you. I think that growth returns a couple of quarters out. It could get a little rough for some of these companies too. We just mentioned that Azure has the OpenAI chat GPT, the sexy new product, the new cars on the lot. They got the new Prius. They got the Tesla Model Y, whatever the hottest car of the moment is. And so yeah, you could see people saying, you know, I'll use Azure for this. And then Google Cloud is a distant third, but you do have competition in the space.
因此，我同意你的观点。我认为增长会在几个季度内回归。对于一些公司来说，情况可能会有些艰难。我们刚才提到了Azure拥有OpenAI聊天GPT、一个新产品，就像车展上的新款车一样，他们有新款普锐斯，有特斯拉Model Y，以及其他最热门的车型。因此，你可能会看到人们说：我会使用Azure。而Google Cloud则是遥远的第三位，但该领域也存在竞争。
I do like their advertising business. I think that's like sure drop to the bottom line. That's growing double digit percentages. And then Uber added that. Door dash has an advertising business. You're starting to see these advertising businesses in places where you didn't expect them. And when you've got a marketplace like Uber does or Amazon does with third party sellers. And then you or Door dash does with the restaurants. And then you say to the folks who are in your marketplace, would you like to come up ahead of your competitors? Would you like to what pages would you like to be shown as a, you know, what are the double dash on Door dash?
我确实喜欢他们的广告业务。我认为这就像是直接入账的折扣。这将以两位数的增长率增长。接着，Uber也添加了这个业务，而Door Dash也有广告业务。你开始在一些意想不到的地方看到有这样的广告业务。当你像Uber或Amazon那样有一个市场，拥有第三方卖家，再加上像Door Dash那样有餐馆，你就可以对在你的市场中的人说：“你想领先于你的竞争对手吗？你想在哪些页面上显示为优先吗，比如Door Dash上的双车道？”
You get to do a second thing. It's like, hey, can we show your ad after somebody orders from this restaurant? Do you want to show your boba or your, you know, liquor, you know, restaurant? And it's like, yeah, I think I would pay for that. Sure, I would need more business. These businesses, I was in an Uber and I was just thinking they know I'm ordering an Uber Black. Okay, great. There's a signal. They know my zip code. They know my address. What are the chances they know the value of my home? What are the chances? 90% And what are the chances they know the cost of my hotel? Okay, the hotel I was staying at, you know, in Japan, I was staying at the park. It's not cheap. It's like a thousand dollars a night. That's the one from what you call it. Not white lotus, the other one lost in translation.
你可以做第二件事。就像，“嘿，我们能在别人从这个餐厅点餐后显示你的广告吗？你想展示奶茶还是你的酒吧或餐厅呢？”“是的，我愿意为此付费。我需要更多的业务。”我曾坐Uber时想到，他们知道我要乘坐Uber Black。好的，有个信号了。他们知道我的邮编。他们知道我的地址。他们知道我的家的价值是多少的几率有多大？90%。他们知道我酒店的费用有多少的几率？好的，我住在日本的公园酒店，它不便宜。一晚上一千美元。这是“迷失东京”那个酒店的名字，不是“白莲花”。
There you go. Yeah. So I'm at that hotel. There was 800 a night. This during the marathon. But they know in Japan, I'm staying at this, you know, five star hotel, four star hotel. I mean, what's that worth to an advertiser to know, hey, would you like the people who stay at the top hotels in the world? This person's been to Japan, Austin, Miami, and LA in the last year. And their hotels cost 800 or $600 on average. They're four or five stars. This person is staying at holiday.
好的，我来给你讲讲。我现在住在那个酒店，每晚要花费800美元，因为是在马拉松期间。但在日本，众所周知我住在这家五星级或四星级酒店。对于广告商来说，知道这个信息的价值是什么呢？他们会想要接触到那些住在世界顶级酒店的人。这个人在过去一年里去过日本、奥斯汀、迈阿密和洛杉矶，他们住的酒店平均价格为800或600美元，都是四星级或五星级的。而现在这个人正在度假。
And so it was J. Cal during the Weblogs in Kara. Me and Brian Alvy were splitting a room at $150 a night hotel. I'm not kidding. We would get the little bed. I'm about to die. We'd sit there and we'd work until 2 a.m. and then sleep a couple hours and have breakfast together. And you know, that advertising information is extraordinary. Do you want the person who bought, I just bought a $300, not $300, $200 and $1,000 waffle machine for my daughter? God, this is incredible. My own heart. That's what's it called? It is the, what's the name? God.
就在卡拉的博客会议期间，我和布赖恩·阿尔维合住一间每晚150美元的酒店房间。我不是在开玩笑。我们挤在小床上，累得要死，工作到凌晨2点，然后一起吃早餐。而你知道广告信息是非常珍贵的。你想要那些刚刚把300美元、不，是200美元和1000美元用于购买华夫饼机的人吗？我的天啊，这简直太不可思议了。我的心脏都快要停了。它叫什么名字？天啊。
I'll tell you in one second. Okay. I'm moving the waffle. And just to flex a little bit, Tyler Florence, the chef from the food network just sent me the one to get. So I get it. And so it's that brand I love. Anyway, I'll start as you have to show. But it's like a four, you can make four, four five waffles at a time. It's like three daughters. And I had the single one and I'm literally like making one waffle at a time. And like these three like baby tigers are going to rip each other to shreds over one waffle every seven minutes. This one makes four every four minutes. And so pretty different, different ballgame.
我一秒钟告诉你。我正在移动华夫饼。稍微炫耀一下，Food Network的厨师Tyler Florence刚刚把我推荐了这款华夫饼机。我很喜欢它的品牌。我开始给你介绍它的功能。这款华夫饼机可以同时制作四份，每四分钟制作一份。而我之前用的那个只能制作一个，每七分钟才能出来一个。这对于有三个小孩要争食的家庭来说，完全不够用。这款华夫饼机可以更快地制作更多的华夫饼，完全是两个档次的产品。
So I love that. But the advertising points very good. And I'll tell you why. Yes. Because when you think about instacart, people think about a delivery business kind of. But they also make software for groceries. That's another thing. They also have a simply amazing amount of inventory for advertising. Because when I'm going to buy a thing, most of the time, I don't care. If I'm buying Oreos or chips of hoi to pick up, for example, they can mind. But they have a lot of advertising space there and they're using it. And another company swiftly, I've known the founder of that forever, also working in the grocery space, explaining to me how much CPG brands are Henry Kim.
我喜欢这件事。但广告也很出色。我告诉你为什么。是的。因为当你想到Instacart时，人们会想到一种送货业务。但他们还为超市制作软件。这是另一件事。他们还有大量广告库存。因为当我购买商品时，大部分时候我不关心品牌，例如我要购买奥利奥饼干或者薯片，他们可以向我推荐。他们有很多广告空间，并且正在使用它。而另一个我了解的公司是迅速公司，这也是在超市领域工作，他跟我解释了CPG品牌有多重要。
How much CPG brands are willing to pay for like last touch advertising if they can change a sale on the ground. And so there's a ton of space here. I just think it's interesting that we're talking about these major tech companies ad incomes. Like who would have thought that like the apex point of a tech company when they reach real scales, they can finally sell ads. But that's nothing to be the case. I mean Apple and Trump. And then we. And then by the way, it's the Breville smart waffle maker pro. This is the only waffle maker that had an LcD screen and like settings at this level of granularity of Christmas. It's absurd.
如果消费品牌可以在现场促成一笔交易，他们愿意为最后一次触碰的广告支付多少费用。因此，这里有很多空间。我认为有趣的是，我们正在谈论这些主要技术公司的广告收入。谁会想到，当技术公司达到真正的规模时，它们终于能够销售广告。但这不是情况。我指的是苹果和特朗普。然后我们来谈谈Breville智能华夫机Pro。这是唯一一个拥有LCD屏幕和像圣诞节一样精细设置的华夫机。这太荒谬了。
Oh, good. This thing is. And it's full of brand for me. For all. Oh, I found it. Yeah. Oh my gosh. E, V, I, L, L, E, now they got the kid. The smart waffle pro for slice. Yeah. It's no joke. I mean, you could save 50 bucks if you want to get the two one, maybe a family three could get by with that. I had to go in industrial. These kids are killing me. I needed four waffles at a time. One for me. One for each of the kids. People who are watching this, not watching this on video. You can't see this. But like, it's literally has a feature called waffle IQ intelligent automation dials and you're cooking time perfectly to suit the waffle style, including Belgium, classic chocolate and buttermilk. It's like, oh my god, I love that. I'm that idiot. And I probably saw it on an ad where it was trying to upsell me on the $39 one that I saw on wire cutter that I was like, that's good enough. And it was good enough for two years. Now that you have the twins, it's no longer good enough. They're not squeezing the waffle. Once you're over 28, good enough is no longer. Yeah.
哦，太好了。这个东西就是这样。而且它是专门给我（和所有人）准备的。哦，我找到了它。耶。哦我的天啊。E、V、I、L、L、E，现在他们抓住了孩子。智能华夫饼干专业版可能比你想象中的要好。你可以省下50美元，如果你想得到两个，然后也许一家三口可以用这个度过。然而，我不得不买工业的那款，这些孩子要把我逼疯的。我需要一次做四个华夫饼干，一个给我，其他给孩子们。看这个视频的人可能看不到，但是它实际上有一个叫作智能IQ智能自动拨号的功能，它可以完美地根据华夫饼干的风格，包括比利时，经典巧克力和酪乳来自动设定烹饪时间。太神奇了，我太爱它了。我可能是个白痴，我可能是在广告上看到的，它试图推销给我39美元的那款，然后我看到了Wire Cutter刚好也有这款产品，我就认为那款也是够好的。这对我两年来都够了。现在你有了双胞胎，这就不够了。时间过了28岁之后，够好已经不再够用了。
And okay thing is my five. Let's talk about snap before we go. Just really quick. Yeah. So snap. If you notice how snap only has two responses to earnings, which is up 20% or down 20% percent, why is this thought so swingy? It's just, I want to give them a hug almost because they just get wrecked so much. Advertising, the advertising business is finicky. Advertisers, you know, during a down market will pull back. They will pause ad campaigns. They'll push them back. And I think, you know, performance based advertising like Google search, or like we just talked about Amazon's, you know, marketplace stuff.
就先说一下我最愉快的事情——我的五分。在我们走之前，我们来简单谈谈Snap。如果你注意到了，Snap的财报只有两种可能的反应，要么涨20%，要么跌20%。为什么它如此波动？我几乎想给它们一个拥抱，因为它们经历了太多的苦难。广告业务很棘手。广告商在萎靡市场中会减少广告投入，暂停广告活动，并且会推迟之前的计划。我认为，像谷歌搜索或者像我们刚刚谈到的亚马逊市场营销这样的基于绩效的广告更有发展前途。
These things are very close to the purchase decision. The closer you can get to the purchase decision, the more scientific it is, right? So okay, the waffle maker costs $279. I can pay $8 every time somebody clicks on it. Now, if that waffle thing is on the New York Times, it's like, okay, yeah, this person looks at recipes. Maybe I can pay 80 cents per person. And I got a hope that one out of 10 actually, you know, clicks. And that's how I get to my aid, you know, clicks past, you know, they're not lucky to lose. And so this is why Google has always, you know, with intent and being closer to the sale. And Amazon, obviously even closer to the sale. Uber might be very close to sale.
这些东西与购买决策非常密切相关。越接近购买决策，就越科学，对吧？好，那么华夫饼机的价格是279美元。我可以每次有人点击它时支付8美元。现在，如果那个华夫饼机出现在《纽约时报》上，那就像是，好的，是的，这个人看食谱。也许我可以支付每人80美分。而且我希望十个人中有一个人真的点击。这就是我如何获得我的援助，你知道的，点击过去了，他们没有走运就失去了。这就是为什么谷歌始终关注意图并更接近销售。而亚马逊显然更接近销售。优步可能非常接近销售。
Hey, I'm going to the Warriors game where are you going to go out for drinks after, right? Right. So this is, I think the, the core issue that snap Twitter Instagram, you know, certain band networks are going to YouTube are not close to a transaction. So they're getting brand advertising, brand advertising, half the time it works, half it doesn't. Nobody knows which half works. That's the classic statement. And so it's just a little less predictable and a dare I say essential as performance table. This is the right word. I mean, essential is the right way to frame it because when you have a reduction in spend across the economy and things slow down, you cut the non-essential things first in brand advertising is the first thing to go.
嘿，我要去看勇士比赛，你们要去哪里喝酒吗？对啊。所以，我认为，Snap、Twitter、Instagram、某些乐队网络转向YouTube的核心问题在于它们不接近交易。它们获得品牌广告，有一半的时间起作用，另一半的时间则无效。没有人知道哪一半起作用，这是一个经典的说法。所以，它就变得不那么可预测，而且有点像表现力表的必要性。这是正确的词。我的意思是，必要性是正确的框架，因为当经济的支出减少和事情变慢时，首先切掉的是非必要的东西，品牌广告是最先被切掉的。
I don't think it's a shock or a surprise that we've seen so many media layoffs in the middle of a slowdown in advertising spending in generally, especially on the brand side. I mean, a lot of this money just evaporated out of the economy. Snaps revenue dropped under a billion, down seven percent year over year. And then the numbers just get brutal. It had a worse operating loss and worse net loss. It did have more operating cash flow. But man, just, yeah, it's hard to find a lot that was exciting about this. And they got some really tough questions on the earnings call. And one of them was particularly rude. I saw a trending and I didn't actually listen to it.
我认为看到这么多媒体裁员，并不是什么意外，因为整体广告支出放缓，尤其是品牌方面。我是说，很多钱就这样从经济中消失了。Snap的收入下降了7%，跌破了十亿美元的大关，并且数据变得更加残酷。它的营业亏损和净亏损都更糟糕了。尽管经营现金流增加了，但是这个公司实在很难让人兴奋。他们在财报电话会议上遭到了一些猛烈的质疑，其中有一个特别粗鲁的问题。我看到它在趋势中，但实际上我并没有听过。
I don't know if we have, we do have a queue up here. I know this. Did you hear this? I did. I haven't heard it. So I'll hear it live for the first time here. Let's play this to it.
我不知道我们是否有，这里确实有一个队列。这是我知道的。你听到了吗？我听到了。我还没有听到。所以我将在这里第一次现场听到它。让我们播放一下。
Our next question is from Rich Cainfield with LightShed Partners. Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I got a couple. I guess given the infrastructure and creator investments that feel pretty vital to reversing the pressure you've seen on engagement and advertising, I guess the question is sort of why aren't you scaling back your AR investments? You talked about off-site partnerships and I saw last week things like AR Coke machines or vending machines. Why not scale back AR investments until you're in a better financial position? Obviously, I feel like Meta's got the luxury of walking and chewing gum when I look at their metaverse investment. I'm not sure you have that luxury. How do you think about how do you balance what you need to re-accelerate your core business versus investing in the future?
我们下一个问题来自LightShed Partners的Rich Cainfield。嗨，谢谢您回答我的问题。我有两个问题。考虑到您正在进行的基础设施和创作者投资似乎对扭转您在参与度和广告方面所面临的压力至关重要，我想知道为什么您不缩减增强现实（AR）的投资？您谈到了站外合作，我上周看到了AR可乐机或售货机之类的东西。为什么不在处于更好的财政状况前缩减AR投资？显然，当我看着Meta公司的元宇宙投资时，我觉得他们很有奢侈的走路和嚼口香糖的能力。我不确定你是否拥有这种奢侈。您如何权衡需要重新加速核心业务和投资未来的需求？
Then too, I guess a big picture question, Evan, obviously you've got what now is going to be another quarter of revenue decline, at least based on your internal forecast and Q2. What gives you confidence that you can return to robust growth? I think obviously the big challenge here is investor confidence in you and the team.
此外，埃文，我想问一个总体问题，显然你们现在将再次面临收入下降的情况，至少根据你们内部的预测和第二季度数据。你怎么能有信心恢复强劲的增长？我认为显然这里的最大挑战是投资者对你和团队的信心。
"Yeah, that's a little rough. Walking chew gum at the same time, but fair, do you think?" "Oh, absolutely fair. I mean, the reason why Meta can have its stock go up 15% after its earnings and if I can loss four billion on metaverse at the same time is because its core business is your f**k's gold, tons and tons of gold. It's just a prince, bricks of money."
“是的，那有点困难。同时走路和嚼口香糖，但公平，你认为呢？” “哦，完全公平。我的意思是，Meta的股票在发布财报后上涨15%，而我同时在元宇宙亏损40亿美元的原因是因为它的核心业务就是你看到的那些金砖和钞票，真是累积的财富。它就像一个王子，有着无数珍贵资源。”
"I just pulled up snaps earnings I had all the numbers. I mean, their net loss in Q123 was 329 million and their revenue was 989 million. When you're running the connegative 30% net margin on a gap basis, you have fewer options. You have a less robust amount of maneuverability room. Yeah, that question came from Greenfield. I know him. Yes, he's a particularly sharp elbowed. He's a bit of a provocateur, yeah."
我刚刚查了一下Snap的收益情况，我有所有的数字。我的意思是，他们在第一季度的净亏损是3.29亿美元，收入则达到了9.89亿美元。当你在基于市场价格的净毛利率达到负30%时，你的选择就更少了。你的手段空间也变得不太充足。对了，这个问题来自格林菲尔德。我认识他。是的，他是一个特别敏锐的人。他有点挑衅性，是的。
"Well, here's the thing. I don't think that question was actually rude because I know. I think it's the venue that made it seem so rude because most people get on the call and they go, Jay Cal. Amazing quarter. You guys were the best. Thank you for taking the question. Just a small thing. Kind of clarified. Of course. I think you can't all flow with the sales of it. Thank you so much. I didn't tell you any question. Oh, thank you so much. You mentioned a bull. A bull. And that's what happens. Oh, yes. Oh, yes. I just passed gas and it smells like roses. Yes, exactly. Yeah."
好的，这件事情是这样的。我觉得那个问题实际上并不粗鲁，因为我理解。我认为是场合让它看起来很粗鲁，因为大多数人加入电话会议时会说：“Jay Cal，这个季度太棒了，你们是最棒的，谢谢你们回答问题。只是有个小问题需要澄清，当然，我觉得你们不能掌握销售量。非常感谢你们。我还没有问问题。哦，谢谢你们。你们提到了一个公牛。公牛。这就是发生的事情。哦，是的。我刚才放屁了，但是它闻起来像玫瑰花。完全正确，是的。 "
"So he asked the question. I mean, basically he said out loud, whatever he's thinking, which is, come on. Your business is struggling here. Get focused. You got to get focused. And he said he's going back to the, he was the one who said, hey, we're going back to the office four days a week or whatever. We don't have the luxury of that. So he's an enigma to me."
所以他提出了问题。我是说，基本上他大声说出了他的想法，就是，拜托，你的生意在这里陷入了困境。要集中注意力。你必须要集中注意力。他说他要回到办公室四天一周或者其他的时间表。我们没有那种奢侈的条件。所以他对我来说是一个谜。
"Enigma to me too. I've never spoken to him. Never spoken to him. I don't know him at all. I do like stuff about snap. I do like that they stayed independent that they had a very different take on social that they managed to capture new demographics that they've done investments into original content and create stuff earlier on. I wore snap spectacles. I thought they were awesome. They were killer at brand."
对我来说，Enigma也很神秘。我从来没有和他说过话，完全不认识他。但我喜欢Snap的相关内容，我喜欢他们保持独立，对社交有不同的看法，成功地吸引了新的用户群体，还在原创内容上进行投资、创建作品。我曾戴过Snap的眼镜，我认为它们非常棒，在品牌方面表现得很出色。
"But ultimately they're a small social network in a world of much bigger companies that have better ad. Yeah, I don't believe rich. This is the Twitter problem all over again. So. Yeah, I mean, are you essential or not? And in a down market, people are going to just cut, you know, and simplify. Maybe we'll just focus on the two or three things that are working and we won't be as experimental with our ad budgets. And so if you were experimental on snap or Twitter or TikTok, you might cut that and just focus on your Amazon ads and your Google ads and your Facebook ads, right? So you can only focus on so many things back to walking and chewing gum. Yeah."
最终来说，Snapchat只是一个在世界上被更大的公司所压制的小型社交网络，其广告效果并不如其他公司良好。我不相信他们会变得富有。问题又回来了，就像Twitter一样。所以，你是不是必须要的呢？在低迷的市场条件下，人们会减少花费，变得更简单。可能我们只会关注那些有效的两三件事，而不会像以前那样实验性地投入广告预算。所以，如果你是在Snapchat、Twitter或者TikTok上进行实验的话，你可能会减少这方面的投入并把注意力集中到亚马逊广告、谷歌广告和脸书广告。所以，你只能关注那么多件事情，不能一心二用。
"I think that's part of the issue here. They do have an impressive number of people using the service. I mean, it's 350 million people or something like that. People are addicted to the service and it's an audience that is valuable. It's young people. So it's valuable to brand advertisers. But in a down market advertising gets walloped and they are going to keep, they're going to need to keep cutting costs and to show some profits here and show growth."
我认为这就是问题的一部分。他们拥有令人印象深刻的服务用户数量，大约有3.5亿人。人们对该服务上瘾，这是一个具有价值的受众。他们是年轻人，对品牌广告商很有价值。但在一个低迷的市场中，广告业受到沉重的打击，他们需要继续削减成本，并展示一些利润和增长。
So, I know we have to go through it all over time. But just before, before I bounce and go back into Babyland, this is a question about social media. Sure, what's your vibe on people that want to ban or not ban TikTok from the United States?
所以，我知道我们必须随着时间而经历这一切。但是在我弹回并回到宝宝的世界之前，这是一个关于社交媒体的问题。当然，你对那些想要禁止或不禁止TikTok进入美国的人有什么看法呢？
So it is crazy that the United States would not demand reciprocity with China. It is also crazy to think that the Chinese government would treat Americans differently than they treat their own citizens.".
因此，美国不要求中国进行互惠是很疯狂的。同样地，认为中国政府会对待美国人与他们对待其自己公民不同也是疯狂的。
Their own citizens are tracked in apps. And they have a social score. And if people don't pay their debts, they are scarlet-lettered inside these apps. If people don't, if people smoke on a train or eat food on it, they will have their social scores.
他们的公民在应用程序中被追踪并拥有社会信用分数。如果人们不支付债务，他们将被这些应用程序中的罪名记录。如果人们在火车上吸烟或吃东西，他们将会受到社会信用评分的影响。
Allah black mirror that famous episode where you're creating each other. So we would have to be completely naive to think that the Chinese government, the CCP, not uses as a weapon against Americans, the obvious answer, and this is nothing to do with your politics. You just need to look at what Huawei or any country would do or swap out China for Russia or Iran or North Korea. If they own this app and they had this amount of access to Americans, you'd be like, well, I'm not giving Putin access to this many Americans. Period full stop.
阿拉黑镜那一集很有名，你们相互制造。因此，我们必须非常天真才能认为中国政府、中共没有将其作为对付美国人的武器，这是显而易见的答案，并且这与你的政治无关。你只需要看看华为或任何国家会怎么做，或者用俄罗斯、伊朗或朝鲜代替中国。如果他们拥有这个应用程序并且能够访问如此多的美国人，你肯定不会将这么多美国人的信息交给普京。 。
（原文存在语法错误，已进行修改）
So it has to be divested. And the investors who were in that company want to return. This is the greatest IPO of the next couple of years. So if the board wants a return, the investors want to return and it's not going public, why? Well, I know why it's not being divested.
这个公司必须分拆。那些投资该公司的投资者想要回收资金。这将是未来几年最伟大的IPO（首次公开募股）。所以如果董事会想要获得回报，投资者想要回收资金，并且不上市，为什么呢？嗯，我知道为什么它没有被分拆。
Well, one, I agree with all that, by the way. Okay. We're on the exact same page. I was just curious if we were in Lime and here. But the reason why it won't go, it won't be divested is that the last thing that I read about this was that the Chinese government doesn't want to appear to be forced to do that.
我完全同意你的观点。我们非常一致。我只是好奇我们的想法是否一致。然而，这件事不会被分散是因为据我所读到的，中国政府不想看起来是被迫这么做的。
And so I want to say face. Yes, but also it kind of makes a point that this thing is not controlled by China. But yet it can't be divested in public because Chinese government says no. So we're on the same page here. I mean, it basically proves the point as you described it.
因此，我想表达的就是面子问题。是的，但这也强调了此事不受中国控制的事实。但是，由于中国政府的禁令，它不能在公共领域进行拆除。所以我们在这个问题上是一致的。我是说，它基本上证明了你所描述的那个点。
Yeah. Yeah. Investors want to go public. Investors want there to be a float and free trading of the shares, which would then, if it was a freely traded company, it would not be owned by CCP anymore. And there's a person from the CCP on the board. And they have said no. Why would they say no? It's an asset. It's an asset.
是的。投资者想要上市。投资者希望股票自由交易流通，如果这是一个自由交易的公司，那么它将不再由中共所有。但董事会中有一位中共党员，他们已经拒绝了这个要求。为什么会拒绝呢？这对他们来说是一项财产。
Now, if you want to be Taylor Lorenz and you want to be like, well, TikTok, the creators need to make money and we had nothing about that when we have no proof. That's just complete naive attack. I like Taylor, but I need to disagree with her on this.
现在，如果你想成为泰勒·洛伦兹（Taylor Lorenz）并且想像TikTok那样，创作者们需要赚钱，但如果我们没有证据，就无法决定这件事。这只是个毫无根据的攻击。我喜欢泰勒，但我不同意她的观点。
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's just it's literal complete naive attack. You all, I mean, be like for people to be like, oh, well, no, I met this Russian spy and they didn't spy on me. They didn't compromise me. And it's like, how do you know that? They could have like swapped out your SIM card when you were at the bathroom.
是的，我的意思是，这完全是一个天真的攻击。有些人可能会说：“哦，我遇到过俄罗斯间谍，但是他们没有对我进行间谍活动，也没有威胁我。”但你怎么知道呢？他们可能在你去洗手间的时候更换了你的SIM卡。
Like you're dating a Russian KGB agent. Yeah. And the thing that I would say is that I don't like there's a certain vibe amongst certain people in tech. And this is actually across every possible group in the industry and even the media covers tech in which there's this like almost like a point of pride that we're all like outside in the dark smoking cigarettes. And well, we're always being tracked by American apps too.
就好像你在和一位俄国KGB特工约会一样。是的。我要说的是，我不喜欢科技行业中某些人之间存在的某种氛围。实际上，这种氛围遍布整个行业中的每一个群体，甚至媒体也对科技行业进行报道，其中几乎存在着一种与众不同的骄傲感，好像我们都在黑暗中抽烟，并且我们一直被美国的应用程序追踪着。
Okay. That's weird. And to me, the answer is no, we can fight surveillance capitalism at home. And we can also point out that there's a greater natural security. There's going to involves a hostile foreign power that is trying to exterminate a part of this population.
好的，这很奇怪。对我来说，答案是不，我们可以在家中抵制监控资本主义。我们还可以指出，存在更大的自然安全。这将涉及到一个敌对的外国势力，试图消灭这个人口的一部分。
So yeah, we're on the same page. But we should probably stop talking. So I think, yes. I mean, I, your analogy is exactly right. I think we could be absolutely, we could be absolutely against what's happening to the U.S. in China while also looking at the American prison system saying, hey, we got too many people in prison and the death penalty is not deployed fairly here.
是的，我们意见一致。但我们可能应该停止交谈了。所以我认为，是的。我的意思是，你的比喻完全正确。我认为我们可以完全反对中国对美国的现状，同时也可以看看美国监狱系统，说，“嘿，我们有太多人在监狱里了，而且死刑并不公平。”
But these are two different things. Yes. Genocide and, you know, our incarceration system being flawed. These are two, both can be solved and addressed and they could be different magnitudes of risk and or wrong in the world.
但这是两件不同的事情。没错。种族灭绝和我们的关押系统有缺陷是两种不同的问题。这两个问题都可以得到解决和解决，它们在世界上可能存在不同的风险和/或错误的程度。
All right. Alex Wilhelm, you can follow him on the Twitter and go subscribe to TechCrunch plus, you don't get that in there, support a great independent editorial and on Twitter. He is part of the first name club at Alex. Yes.
好的。你可以在Twitter上关注Alex Wilhelm，还可以订阅TechCrunch Plus。如果你不知道怎么订阅，可以在Twitter上找他帮忙。他和Alex艾力克斯是名字一样的朋友。此外，TechCrunch是一家独立出版机构，支持他们是很棒的选择。
Thank you, my brother. Jason, thanks for having me on as always and a real treat. And I'll just say this, may summer come quickly. Maybe we all go surfing and let's all have a nap. Yes, we need to. Yeah, exactly. Everybody good, a good nap and see you next time. Everybody, bye bye.
谢谢你，我的兄弟。Jason，感谢你一如既往地邀请我，真是一份美好的礼物。我只想说，希望夏天快点来临。也许我们可以一起去冲浪，然后好好睡一觉。是的，我们需要这样做。好了，大家都放松一下，下次再见。大家再见。