Tesla Q1 2023 Earnings Call // Storage, 4680 Production, Lithium Cost
发布时间 2023-04-26 13:59:14 来源
Welcome back everyone, I'm Jordan Gisegi and this is the limiting factor. Today I'm going to walk you through Tesla's Q1 earnings call from a battery perspective. The major topics this time around are the potential market size of grid storage and why within a few years it may eclipse Tesla's auto business. The progress of the 4680 production against what was unveiled at Battery Day and some comments from Tesla on the state of the lithium market.
大家好，欢迎回来，我是乔丹•吉塞吉，这是《极限因素》。今天我将从电池的角度带领大家了解特斯拉的Q1财报电话。这次财报电话的主要话题有两个：网格储能的潜在市场规模，以及为什么在几年内它可能会超过特斯拉的汽车业务。4680生产的进展如何，与 Battery Day 上公布的一致吗？以及特斯拉对锂市场的态度。
Before we begin, a special thanks to my Patreon supporters and YouTube members. This is the support that gives me the freedom to avoid chasing the algorithm and sponsors. As always, the links for support are in the description.
在我们开始之前，要特别感谢我的Patreon支持者和YouTube会员。是他们的支持让我能够避免追逐算法和赞助商，保持自由。像往常一样，支持链接在描述中。
The first question and answer from Tesla's Q1 earnings call that's worth covering was about Tesla's energy business. It was a minor comment but it's a good springboard to talk about Tesla's energy business as well as a few key points from Masterplan Part 3. Let's get into it.
特斯拉Q1收益电话会议的第一个问题和答案值得关注的是特斯拉的能源业务。虽然这只是一个次要的评论，但它是谈论特斯拉能源业务以及Masterplan Part 3的几个关键点的好出发点。让我们深入了解。
The question was, quote, do you still believe Tesla energy will be bigger than auto? End quote. To which Elon responded, quote, yes, I should clarify like bigger than auto from the standpoint of like total gigawatt hours deployed. So it's possible automotive revenue may be higher. But gigawatt hours I think will probably be higher with stationary storage. If you just look at what's needed to transition the world to a sustainable energy economy, there's more stationary energy storage needed than there is mobile energy storage. So we are seeing growth of our stationary storage well in excess of automotive. End quote.
问题是：“你是否仍然相信Tesla Energy会比汽车业务更大？”对此，埃隆回答道：“是的，我需要进一步澄清，我指的是从部署的总千瓦时角度来看，Tesla Energy会比汽车业务更大。因此，汽车业务的收入可能会更高。但是，就千瓦时而言，我认为静态储能会更高。如果你看一下把世界过渡到可持续能源经济所需的电力，我们需要的是更多的静态储能，而不是移动储能。因此，我们看到我们的静态储能增长远远超过汽车业务。”
Let's take a closer look at what Elon's saying here because some people might point out that it doesn't appear to align with Tesla's Masterplan Part 3. Masterplan Part 3 shows that more energy storage is needed for vehicles than for grids storage by nearly double, which is the opposite of what Elon said at the earnings call. What's going on here?
让我们仔细看看埃隆在这里说的话，因为有些人可能会指出它似乎与特斯拉的Masterplan Part 3不一致。Masterplan Part 3 显示，车辆所需的能量存储是网格存储的近两倍，这与埃隆在财报电话会议上所说的相反。这是怎么回事？
The first thing I'd say here is that Masterplan Part 3 isn't set in stone. It's just a rough guess at what the transition to sustainable energy could look like. And that'll change as the hundreds of technologies involved in making that happen develop over the next 20 years. One might have in mind multiple potential scenarios.
我想说的第一件事是，Masterplan Part 3并不是铁板一块的计划。它只是一个对可持续能源转型看起来可能会是什么样子的初步猜测。这个计划会随着未来20年内参与它的数百种技术的不断发展而不断变化。我们可能想到了许多潜在的场景。
For example, it might be that he expects electrochemical battery cells to displace some of the thermal batteries or some of the hydrogen storage shown here. Thermal batteries are exactly what they sound like. Batteries that use some form of thermal mechanism for energy storage. Hydrogen storage means producing hydrogen with excess electricity and pumping it underground throughout the year. As a side note, 642 terawatt hours of hydrogen storage sounds massive, but it's not actually comparable to the 46.2 terawatt hours of electrochemical battery storage. That's because the electrochemical batteries will be cycled on a daily basis, whereas the hydrogen storage will accumulate during the spring, summer, and fall and be discharged throughout the winter, which means only one charged discharge cycle per year. That is, for hydrogen 642 terawatt hours means 642 terawatt hours per year, whereas 46.2 terawatt hours of electrochemical storage at 365 days means more like 17,000 terawatt hours. So it's not an apples to apples comparison.
例如，他可能预期电化学电池单元将取代部分热电池或此处展示的部分氢存储。热电池就像它们听起来一样。它们是使用某种热机制来储存能量的电池。氢存储意味着使用多余的电力产生氢，并将其泵送到地下贮存整年。额外说明，642太瓦时的氢存储听起来很大，但它实际上无法与46.2太瓦时的电化学电池储存相比较。这是因为电化学电池将每天进行循环，而氢储存将在春、夏和秋季积累，并在冬季中释放，这意味着每年只有一个充电放电周期。也就是说，对于氢而言，642太瓦时意味着每年642太瓦时，而365天的46.2太瓦时电化学储存意味着更像是17,000太瓦时。因此，这不是一个苹果与苹果之间的比较。
The second thing I'd say about the discrepancy between Elon's comments in the earnings call and Master Plan Part 3 is that it doesn't matter because the underlying message is accurate. Tesla's energy storage business is exploding and that will continue. It's currently at a run rate of 4 gigawatt hours per quarter, which is 16 gigawatt hours per year. Meanwhile, they're in the process of ramping and installing 70 to 80 gigawatt hours per year in the US and China.
关于埃隆在财报电话会议和《Master Plan 3》中的评论存在的不一致，我想说的第二件事是，这不重要，因为其基本信息是准确的。特斯拉的能源储存业务正在蓬勃发展，这种趋势将会持续下去。目前，其每季度的运行速率为4千兆瓦时，即每年16千兆瓦时。同时，他们正在美国和中国逐渐大规模安装70到80千兆瓦时的能源储存系统。
Tesla's as compared to the auto business, which after 15 years is at a cell consumption rate of about 132 gigawatt hours per year and only growing at around 50 per year. That is, within the next 3 to 5 years, Tesla's energy storage business will probably be consuming as many gigawatt hours of battery cells as the vehicle business. Why is the energy storage business able to expand so much more quickly? First, energy storage products are easier to manufacture. They're basically wiring cabinets filled with batteries. That's an oversimplification, but the basic idea is that they don't need motors, climate control, wheels, suspension, comfortable seats, and an entertainment system. Second, building on that, one megapack uses as many batteries as about 50 Tesla vehicles and should have almost the same profitability for each kilowatt hour or megawatt hour sold. Third, energy storage is fully driven by economics rather than customer preference.
相对于汽车业务，特斯拉的能源存储业务的电池消耗量增长速度更快。汽车业务已经发展了15年，每年的电池消耗率约为132千瓦时，每年的增长率仅约为50，而在接下来的3到5年中，特斯拉的能源存储业务很可能将消耗与汽车业务相同数量的千瓦时。为什么能源存储业务能够更快地扩张？首先，能源存储产品更容易制造。它们基本上是充满电池的接线柜。虽然这是一种过度简化的说法，但基本想法是它们不需要马达、气候控制、车轮、悬挂、舒适的座椅和娱乐系统等。其次，以此为基础，一个兆瓦电池组（Megapack）使用的电池数量相当于约50辆特斯拉车，每千瓦时或兆瓦时所售出的盈利几乎相同。第三，能源存储完全受经济因素驱动，而不是顾客偏好。
There's a lot of energy markets out there where adding battery storage to intermittent storage like wind means big profits. That is, grid operators will take as many megapacks as Tesla can supply until the market is saturated.
有很多能源市场可以将电池储存与像风一样不稳定的储存结合起来，这意味着大量的利润。也就是说，电网运营商将接受特斯拉能够提供的尽可能多的MEGAPACK电池储存器，直到市场饱和为止。
Fourth, as this image from RISED at Energy Shows, Tesla is the only fully vertically integrated one-stop shop for battery storage on the market. That means Tesla should be able to build their business more quickly, cheaply, and with less friction than the competition.
第四，如RISED在能源展示中展示的这张图像所示，特斯拉是市场上唯一完全垂直一站式电池存储解决方案供应商。这意味着特斯拉应该能够比竞争对手更快、更便宜、更顺畅地建立业务。
Let's move on to the next investor question, which was, quote, how well are 4680 cells meeting the expectations described on battery day? End quote.
让我们继续下一个投资人的问题，他问道：“4680电池是否达到了在电池日上描述的期望？”
The answer here from Drew Baglina was quite extensive, so I'm going to break it down into smaller pieces and we'll work through each point one by one.
这里Drew Baglina的回答非常详尽，所以我打算将其分解成较小的部分，我们将逐一讨论每一个要点。
His first point was, quote, so on battery day we establish a cost down roadmap through 2026 across five areas of effort. For the cell factory, the Texas 4680 factory is part way through building, commissioning, installing, and operating, and will be 70% lower cap ex per gigawatt hour than a typical cell factory when fully rent, in line with what we described at battery day. And we're continuing to pursue further densification and investment reduction opportunities in future factory buildouts like in Nevada. On cell design, we're in production with not only the first generation tablet cell we unveiled at battery day, but a second more manufacturable version in Texas today. End quote.
他的第一个观点是：“因此，在电池日，我们建立了一份成本下降路线图，跨越2026年的五个努力领域。对于电芯工厂，德州4680工厂正在建设、调试、安装和运营过程中，并且将全面实现每千瓦时的低资本支出比典型的电芯工厂低70%，符合我们在电池日上所描述的情况。而且我们正在继续追求未来像内华达州这样的工厂建设中更高的密度和更少的投资机会。在电芯设计方面，我们不仅生产了在电池日上首次亮相的第一代平板电芯，而且今天在德克萨斯还有一个更可制造的第二代版本。”
First, for context, Tesla's still showing additional operational expenses incurred by 4680 production in their quarterly slide deck. And referencing back to battery day, the longest time frame spoken on battery day to meet cost reduction targets was about three years. That was said alongside a graph that showed cost reduction starting in early 2022 and completing sometime in 2025. Let's call that completion by 2026.
首先，为了背景说明，特斯拉在他们季度幻灯片中仍显示4680生产所产生的额外运营费用。回溯到电池日，该公司在实现成本削减目标的最长时间框架约为三年。这是在一张图表旁说的，显示成本削减将从2022年初开始，在2025年左右完成。我们可以称之为到2026年完成。
That is, as usual, Elon was optimistic when he said three years to fully realize the cost targets announced on battery day, which would be this year. As per Drew's comments and as illustrated by the graph shown at battery day, it sounds like the actual internal target was for around 2025 to 2026.
通常情况下，埃隆总是非常乐观。他表示要在三年内完全实现电池日公布的成本目标，也就是在今年实现。但根据德鲁的评论和电池日展示的图表，实际的内部目标大约是在2025年至2026年左右。
However, although the end goal remains the same, it's clear Tesla's getting a late start on the cost reductions because the cells are still creating drag on income and they were supposed to start having a positive impact last year. So is the 2026 day still possible? Let's take a look.
然而，尽管最终目标并未改变，但明显特斯拉在成本削减方面起步较晚，因为电池仍对其收入造成拖累，而根据计划，它们去年就理应开始产生积极影响。那么，2026年的目标是否仍然可行？让我们来看一下。
First, as Drew said, they're targeting about 70% lower CAPEX improvement than a typical cell factory when fully ramped. That's in line with the 69% advised at battery day, so the total CAPEX number is still the same.
首先，正如德鲁所说，他们的目标是在完全投产时降低约70％的CAPEX，这与电池日建议的69％一致，因此总CAPEX数仍然相同。
意思是：他们计划在完全投产时，与传统电池工厂相比，将CAPEX降低约70％，这与电池日的建议一致。因此，总CAPEX数将保持不变。
Second, as Drew also said, Tesla's been putting a lot of work into improving the cell design and cell factory beyond what they originally envisioned at battery day. Cell design and cell factory make up the bulk of the savings at the dollars per kilowatt hour level and the investment per gigawatt hour level.
其次，正如德鲁所说，特斯拉一直在努力改进电池设计和电池工厂，超越了他们在电池日时最初的设想。电池设计和电池工厂构成了每千瓦时成本和每千兆瓦时投资的主要节省部分。
That means in terms of just these two areas, the groundwork for cost reductions is already there, and the question becomes, can Tesla achieve volume production in the next three years? Just because although Tesla may have already reduced the cost of their new 4680 cell lines, they still have to increase the speed of the cell lines to drive down the cost per kilowatt hour of the cells that are being produced. As we'll see in a moment, Tesla's making slow but steady progress on that front.
这意味着就这两个方面而言，降低成本的基础已经存在，问题变成了特斯拉能否在未来三年内实现大规模生产。尽管特斯拉已经降低了新的4680电池线的成本，但他们仍需提高电池线的速度，才能降低每千瓦时电池的成本。正如我们稍后将看到的，特斯拉在这方面正在缓慢但稳定地取得进展。
Before we cover that, what about other areas of cost improvement like anode material, cathode material, and cell to vehicle integration?
在我们讨论这个之前，其他降低成本的方面，比如阳极材料、阴极材料和电池与车辆的集成怎么样呢？
With regards to the anode material, I don't think they're going to realize a high silicon anode with roughly 20% greater energy density, 5% lower cost per kilowatt hour, and 4% lower capex by 2026. That's because a high silicon anode is something no one in the battery industry has cracked yet at scale, and Tesla's still struggling with just making the battery cells. However, I'm betting they will add at least some silicon and get a good portion of the cost and energy density benefits.
关于阳极材料，我认为到2026年，他们不会实现一个大约增加20%能量密度、每千瓦时降低5%成本、资本支出降低4%的高硅阳极。这是因为高硅阳极是目前没有任何一家电池行业公司在规模上突破的领域，而特斯拉仍在努力制造电池单体。但是，我敢打赌他们会至少添加一些硅，并获得部分成本和能量密度的好处。
With that said, given that Tesla's over-achieving on the cell design and cell factory, I think they can make up the 2-3% shortfall that under-achieving in silicon might create.
话虽如此，考虑到特斯拉在电池设计和电池工厂上的超预期表现，我认为他们可以弥补硅成份低下所可能带来的2-3%的不足。
With regards to the cathode material and cell to vehicle integration, let's continue with Drew's comments. Note, on the cathode material side, we have a number of activities underway per the battery day road map. For lithium, our corpus Christi lithium refinery breaks ground this may. Our goal is to start commissioning portions of the facility before the end of the year. The refinery uses the sulfate-free, spod-gaming refining process with reduced process costs, no acid or caustic reagents, and lower embodied energy. It actually produces a beneficial by-product that can be repurposed in construction materials.
关于正极材料和电池与车辆集成，我们可以继续参考德鲁的意见。值得注意的是，在正极材料方面，我们按照电池日路线图进行了多项活动。对于锂，我们的Corpus Christi锂精炼厂将于今年5月开工。我们的目标是在今年年底前启动设施的部分投产。该精炼厂采用无硫酸盐、spod-gaming精炼工艺，具有较低的工艺成本，无需酸性或腐蚀性试剂，能源消耗更低。它实际上还生产一种有益的副产品，可以重复利用于建筑材料中。
We discussed all of these concepts on battery day. Same with the cathode precursor. We've successfully demonstrated a lower process cost, zero waste water precursor process that we described on battery day, at both lab and pilot scale, and are in the detailed design phase for incorporating this technology into the front end of our Austin cathode facility.
在电池日，我们讨论了所有这些概念，包括正极前体。我们成功地展示了成本更低、零废水前体工艺，这个工艺在实验室和试点规模都有描述，我们正处于详细设计阶段，将这项技术纳入奥斯汀正极工厂的前端。
On cathode production, we are 50% equipment and 75% utilities installed at our new cathode building in Austin, with our goal to begin dry and wet commissioning this quarter and next quarter with a target to produce first material before the end of the year. End quote. In short, things are well on track with cathode and lithium production, with cathode production starting before the end of the year and lithium production probably starting early next year after commissioning.
在阳极生产方面，我们在奥斯汀新阳极建筑中安装了50％的设备和75％的公用设施，我们的目标是在本季度和下季度开始干式和湿式调试，并计划在年底之前生产第一批材料。总之，阳极和锂生产的进展很顺利，阳极生产将在年底之前开始，锂生产可能在调试后的明年初开始。
And lithium is one of the inputs into cathode production, so both show up in the cost reductions for cathode laid out at battery day. That only leaves us with cell to vehicle integration, but before we cover that, I think it's worth providing some technical explanations and resources for what Drew said about lithium refining and cathode production.
锂是阴极生产的输入材料之一，因此在电池日所描述的阴极成本降低中，两者都会出现。这只剩下了电池与车辆集成，但在我们讨论之前，我认为值得提供一些关于锂提炼和阴极生产的技术解释和资源，以便于理解Drew所说的内容。
First, Tesla's sulfate-free refining process for lithium hydroxide, which breaks ground next month. These are the Tesla is either using the Odotech lithium hydroxide process or they've developed their own similar process. Thanks to RK equity for bringing the Odotech process to my attention. As you can see, one of the byproducts of the Odotech process is calcium carbonate, which can be used in products like concrete and aligns with Drew's comments that the process they're using produces byproducts that can be used in construction materials.
首先，特斯拉将于下个月推出无硫酸盐精炼工艺的氢氧化锂。特斯拉使用的可能是Odotech的氢氧化锂工艺，或者是他们自己开发的类似工艺。感谢RK Equity提供Odotech工艺的信息。正如您所见，Odotech工艺的副产品之一是碳酸钙，可用于产品如混凝土中，符合Drew的评论，即他们使用的工艺会产生可用于建筑材料的副产品。
But of course, it also meets the requirement of being an acid-free process that uses pressure leaching with sodium carbonate rather than a more typical sulfuric acid roasting process. As for the cathode production process, I've already done a full video on this titled Tesla's cathode production process. On screen is the key slide, which compares Tesla's process to a conventional process.
当然，它也符合免酸过程的要求，使用碳酸钠进行压力浸出，而不是更常见的硫酸焙烧过程。至于阴极生产过程，我已经做了一个完整的视频，题为特斯拉的阴极生产过程。屏幕上显示的是关键幻灯片，比较了特斯拉的过程和传统的过程。
For battery raw materials, our mind and refine, there are basically two broad steps to manufacturing cathode material at the factory. First, combining chemicals like lithium and nickel in a liquid-based process to make what's called the precursor, and then baking those precursors at high temperature until they form red blood cell-sized crystals.
对于电池原材料，我们的思路很清晰。工厂制造正极材料基本上可以分为两个宽泛步骤。首先，通过基于液体的过程，将锂和镍等化学物质组合成所谓的前体，然后在高温下将这些前体烘烤，直到它们形成红细胞大小的晶体。
Baking the precursor to form crystals is the easy part, and where Tesla's innovating is the process to form the precursor. They have it working at lab and pilot scale, and now they're building a full-scale precursor production line into the front end of their cathode facility at Austin. The front end simply means that precursor production is at the beginning of the line, because the back end of the line is baking the precursor to form crystals. The only point I'd add here about the precursor process is that it's never been done at scale before, so there is a potential for delays, so I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla's timeline slipped.
将前体进行烘烤形成晶体是容易的部分，特斯拉的创新在于前体形成的过程。他们已经在实验室和样品规模上进行了验证，现在他们正在其奥斯汀阴极工厂的前端建造一个全面的前体生产线。前端意味着前体生产在生产线的开头，因为线路的后端是烘烤前体形成晶体过程。这里我要补充一点的是，前体过程从未在较大规模上实施，所以有可能导致延迟，如果特斯拉的时间表出现差错，那我不会感到惊讶。
As a final note, quite a few people seem to be confusing cathode production with the cathode coding process. In short, there's a process to make cathode powder by combining lithium with nickel and other chemicals. This is completely separate from the process of combining that cathode powder with other materials and then sticking it to an electrode foil, which is called coding.
最后需要注意的是，许多人似乎将阴极生产与阴极编码过程混淆了。简单来说，制造阴极粉末的过程是将锂和镍等化学物质结合在一起。这完全不同于将阴极粉末与其他材料结合并将其粘在电极箔上，这被称为编码。
Tesla uses a dry coding process, which is shown here. So when Drew said Tesla's doing dry and wet commissioning next quarter for the cathode precursor and cathode production, some people thought that meant Tesla is abandoning the dry coding process. But that's not the case. Dry and wet commissioning means first running the cathode production equipment dry to test of its working, and then running it with the liquids that are normally used in the production process. It's like if you buy a blender and test it without any fluids in it before making a smoothie. The same concept applies to industrial equipment.
特斯拉采用干法编码过程，如图所示。因此，当Drew表示特斯拉将在下一个季度对阴极前驱体和阴极生产进行干法和湿法调试时，有些人认为这意味着特斯拉放弃了干法编码过程。但事实并非如此。干法和湿法调试意味着首先将阴极生产设备干燥运行以测试其工作情况，然后使用通常在生产过程中使用的液体来进行运行。这就像在制作冰沙之前在搅拌机中不加任何液体进行测试。这个概念也适用于工业设备。
The last element of cost from the battery day presentation was cell to vehicle integration, also known as the structural pack. On that, Drew commented, quote, we saw big improvements with pack manufacturing with the 4680 cell and the structural pack concept. 50% lower cap ex and 66% smaller factory for the same output in gigawatt hours per year. We do believe structural as a concept is a good one. It's simpler. We'll continue to structurally load the cells and use the pack as the floor of the vehicle while iterating the design closer to be level execution of this A level architecture in future programs. End quote.
电池日展示中成本的最后一个元素是电池组到车辆的集成，也称为结构电池组。对此，德鲁评论说，我们发现，通过采用4680电池和结构电池组概念，电池组制造得到了显著改善。每年以千兆瓦时为单位的产量相同，资本支出降低了50％，工厂规模减小了66％。我们认为，结构电池组作为一个概念是很好的，因为它更简单。我们将继续采用该方案，将电池组固定在车辆底部，并逐步设计实现更接近A级架构的执行水平。未来项目中。
That is, they've already had success reducing costs with the first generation of the structural pack that's been going into the model Y. However, as they've said in the past, that's a C grade implementation of the A grade base architecture of the structural pack.
换言之，他们已经取得了一定的成功，通过将第一代结构包装装入模型Y来降低成本。然而，正如他们之前所说的那样，这是一个C级别的实现，而基础架构的结构包装是A级别的。
For the cyber truck, Tesla will more fully incorporate the structural pack into the structure of the vehicle while also likely removing excess weight and material in both the pack itself and the battery cells. That'll likely bring the cost savings of the structural pack closer to what was projected at battery day. And I expect that'll continue to improve over the next few years. That is, the structural pack looks to be on track to meet cost targets by 2026.
为了Cyber Truck，特斯拉将更充分地将结构包整合到车辆结构中，同时可能还会在包本身和电池单元中去除多余的重量和材料。这可能会使结构包的成本节约更接近电池日预计的成本节约。我预计这将在未来几年继续改善。也就是说，结构包看起来有望在2026年前达到成本目标。
But the elephant in the room is of course manufacturing speed and quality. Without that, none of the cost improvements from battery day will be possible. On that, Drew commented quote, and zooming out for the 4680 team, Q1 was all about cost and quality. We made significant improvements in both areas. Texas production increased by 50% quarter over quarter, through yields increased by 12% and at Kato, P-Crate increased by 20% and through yields improved by 20%. End quote.
然而，房间里的大象当然是制造速度和质量。如果没有这一点，电池日的成本改进就不可能实现。在这方面，Drew发表了评论，并为4680团队提供了全局视角。Q1时间主要关注成本和质量。我们在两个领域都取得了显著的进展。德克萨斯州的生产季度环比增长了50％，收益率增长了12％，而在Kato，P-Crate增长了20％，而且获利率提高了20％。 结束引用。
Let's break that down. Kato has a 4680 production facility at Kato Road in Fremont, California and another facility in Austin, Texas. Kato Road has a nameplate capacity of 10 gigawatt hours per year and Austin is starting with 1 25 gigawatt hour line. Combined, those two facilities hit a production rate of a thousand packs per week last quarter, which is a run rate of about 3.5 gigawatt hours.
让我们来解析一下这句话。Kato在加利福尼亚弗里蒙特的Kato Road拥有一个4680生产工厂，还有一个位于得克萨斯州奥斯汀的工厂。Kato Road的额定产能为每年10吉瓦时，而奥斯汀则开始运营一条产能为1 25吉瓦时的生产线。综合来看，这两个工厂上个季度的生产率达到了每周一千个电池组，相当于每年3.5吉瓦时的产量。
The Kato facility has been working on ramping for about 2 and a half years, but started ramping an earnest about 15 months ago. Austin started ramping 6 months ago, so although Austin has a higher capacity, most of the 3.5 gigawatt hours of cells would have come from Kato Road. Drew said that Austin made a 50% quarter over quarter improvement in production. I'm assuming that means 50% more total production. Yeals improved by 12%, which means that more of the cells that were produced were usable.
卡托设施已经进行了大约2年半的斜坡式增长计划，但大约15个月前才开始恶补。奥斯汀在6个月前开始斜坡式增长计划，因此尽管奥斯汀的产能更高，但大部分3.5千兆瓦小时的电池仍然来自卡托路。Drew表示奥斯汀的生产产量季度同比增长了50％。我认为这意味着总生产量增加了50％。Yeals的改善率为12％，这意味着被生产出来的电池更具可用性。
Based on that, my guess is that Austin's annual production rate is at most 1 gigawatt hour of good cells. Kato Road saw a peak rate increase of 20%, which means that production may have been lower or higher than last quarter, depending on how much they were running the line. However, Kato Road also saw an improvement in yields by 20%. Based on that, my guess is that the annual production rate at Kato is at most 4 gigawatt hours of good cells.
根据这个，我猜想奥斯汀的年产量最多只有1个千瓦时的好电池。卡托路的峰值增长率增加了20％，这意味着生产量可能高于或低于上一季度，这取决于他们运行的线路有多少。但是，卡托路的产量也增加了20％。基于此，我猜想卡托的年产量最多为4个千瓦时的好电池。
That is, in the last 3 months, both the Austin and Kato line improved in terms of production and the percent of cells that are usable. The question is, will they have enough battery cells to support the ramp of the cyber truck? And how are they going against their goal of the 1000 packs per week per quarter increase that they advised at investor day?
简而言之，过去3个月里，奥斯汀和卡托线在生产和可用电池单元的百分比方面都有所改善。问题是，他们是否有足够的电池单元来支持塞博卡车的逐步增长？而他们在投资者大会上提出的每季度每周增加1000套的目标又如何实现？
On the cyber truck question, my view is that the first generation cells from Kato Road are being used in Model W's, and the second generation cells from Austin will be used in the cyber truck. Even if Austin's only at a run rate of 1 gigawatt hour per year and didn't improve at all for the rest of the year, that's enough for about 5 to 10,000 cyber truck battery packs, which would be just enough cells for the cyber truck ramp. However, it is cutting things pretty close, and I'm wondering if Tesla has backup plans for a 2170 pack for the cyber truck.
就Cyber Truck问题而言，我的观点是Kato Road的第一代电池正在用于W型车型，而Austin的第二代电池将用于Cyber Truck。即使Austin每年只能产生1个千瓦时的运行速率，并且在其余时间没有任何改进，这也足够生产大约5至10,000个Cyber Truck电池组，这将刚好足够Cyber Truck的生产需求。然而，这样做有点冒险，我在想特斯拉是否有备用计划，用于供应Cyber Truck的2170电池组。
As for the goal of a 1000 packs per week per quarter, we don't know if that was an average target based on exponential growth or if they're expecting linear growth. In either case, it looks like they've fallen short. Is that something to be worried about? It depends on what the specific worry is. If the worry is cyber truck production, as I said a moment ago, Tesla may have backup plans for a 2170 battery pack. It wouldn't be ideal, but it would keep the 4680 production ramp from bottlenecking the cyber truck production ramp.
关于每季度每周生产1000个电池组的目标，我们不知道这是基于指数增长还是线性增长的平均目标。无论哪种情况，似乎他们没能达到目标。这是否值得担心？这取决于具体担忧的是什么。如果担忧的是赛博卡车的生产，正如我刚才所说，特斯拉可能有备用计划可供使用2170电池组。这并不理想，但它会防止4680生产提升瓶颈赛博卡车生产提升。
If the worry is that Tesla will somehow fall behind on EV technology, that's not a worry I share because Tesla's years ahead of any potential competition in most areas. The one concern I do have is that Tesla may be missing out on potential growth or will miss out on potential growth if the 4680 production ramp continues to stumble. So it's not an existential concern, but rather a case of hoping that Tesla meets or exceeds their 50% growth target as deep into the future as possible. But for the time being, it's a case of weight and sea.
如果担心特斯拉在电动汽车技术方面会落后，我不认为这是我所担心的，因为在大多数领域，特斯拉比潜在竞争对手领先多年。我唯一担心的是，如果4680生产量继续受挫，特斯拉可能会错失潜在的增长机会或将错失这些机会。因此，这不是一种存在上的担忧，而是希望特斯拉尽可能深入未来实现或超过他们50%的增长目标的情况。但目前来看，这是一个等待和观望的局面。
And hopefully, Tesla gives us an update every time they increase production by a thousand packs per week. And that in the next quarter or two, we see them hit 2000 packs per week or a 7-gigawatt hour run rate. Either way, we are seeing other positive signs for 4680 production. Model Y's with the 4680 pack now appear to be a permanent fixture on Tesla's North American order page. So the 4680 lines are having an impact on Tesla's total cell supply and production is reliable enough to support a commercial vehicle program. If this were a battery startup, that would be a huge deal. But expectations were set pretty high at battery day, and Tesla fully meeting those expectations still appears to be a few years away.
希望特斯拉每次增加一千个电池组每周时都会给我们更新。在接下来的一个季度或两个季度中，我们希望能看到特斯拉每周生产2000个电池组或达到7千兆瓦时的运行水平。无论如何，我们看到了其他关于4680生产的积极迹象。现在，搭载4680电池组的Model Y车型似乎已经成为特斯拉北美订单页面的永久性配置。因此，4680生产线对特斯拉总体电池供应产生了影响，生产稳定性足以支持商业车辆计划。如果这是一家电池初创企业，那将是一个巨大的成就。但是对于电池日设定的期望，特斯拉完全达到这些期望仍需要数年时间。
Let's finish up with Drew's comments. Quote altogether, the team accomplished a 25% reduction in COGS over the quarter, and we are on track to achieve steady state cost targets over the next 12 months. Going forward for the rest of the year, the priority one is yield and cost for the 4680 program as we steadily ramp production ahead of the Cybertruck next year. End quote.
接下来让我们来看一下Drew的评论。总的来说，团队在本季度成功地将成本减少了25％，我们正朝着在未来12个月内实现稳定的成本目标的方向前进。未来，我们今年剩下的重点是针对4680计划的产量和成本，以便在明年Cybertruck推出之前稳步增加生产量。完毕。
In other words, Tesla is tightening up their processes to increase the number of good cells they produce, which is important to reducing costs. Their view is that they can hit cost targets in the next 12 months. They didn't specify what cost targets those are, but I imagine there's an internal cost target they want to hit to make sure the Cybertruck with 4680 cells is as profitable as possible as early as possible in the ramp.
换句话说，特斯拉正在加强他们的工艺流程，以增加他们生产的好电池数量，这对于降低成本非常重要。他们认为他们可以在接下来的12个月内达到成本目标。他们没有具体说明这些成本目标是什么，但我想他们有一个内部成本目标，希望确保4680电池的Cybertruck尽早尽可能地盈利。
That is, I don't think the target they're referring to is the battery day targets, because as I covered earlier, their goal is to hit the cost targets from battery day by 2026, and that's on an abbreviated timeline. As an interim summary, it's possible to hit the cost targets laid out at battery day by 2025 or 2026, but that comes with a big asterisk, which is that it's dependent on increasing the production speed of the 4680 lines. This is why I bring up production rate in every quarterly earnings call video.
换句话说，我认为他们所指的目标不是电池日的目标，因为正如我之前所述，他们的目标是在2026年前达到电池日的成本目标，而这是一个缩短的时间表。作为一个中期总结，可能在2025年或2026年达到电池日所设定的成本目标，但这需要一个巨大的注释，即增加4680生产线的生产速度是有条件的。这就是为什么我在每个季度收益电话视频中都提到生产速度。
However, yields are also important, and Tesla's also making steady progress on that front. With the 4680 discussion out of the way, let's move on to lithium cost. There was a surprising amount of discussion in the earnings call about lithium cost, and that discussion was wide-ranging, so instead of walking you through all the quotes, I'll just summarize the key points.
然而，收益也很重要，而特斯拉在这方面也在稳步取得进展。随着对4680的讨论告一段落，让我们转向锂成本。在财报电话会议中，有很多关于锂成本的讨论，这些讨论范围广泛，因此我不会逐一列举所有语录，而是简要总结要点。
First, spot prices for lithium carbonate have dropped by 70% in the last few months. Second, the spot market only makes up a small percentage of the total lithium market, so you don't read too much into the spot price. Third, regardless, lithium prices are reducing, and Tesla plans on taking advantage of that by locking in lithium prices with multi-year fixed price contracts. Fourth, high lithium prices are encouraging miners to become more ambitious with bringing new supply online. Fifth, even when reiterated that lithium refining, rather than mining, is the bottleneck.
首先，碳酸锂的现货价格在过去几个月里下降了70%。其次，现货市场只占全部锂市场的一小部分，因此不应过度关注现货价格。第三，无论如何，锂价格正在降低，特斯拉计划通过签署多年固定价格合同来利用这一点。第四，高锂价格鼓励矿工更有野心地增加新的供应。第五，即使多次强调，瓶颈在于锂的提炼，而不是采矿。
And as a result, Tesla is building the largest lithium refining and cathode production facilities in North America. Sixth, Zach Kirkhorn said that he expects not just lithium carbonate, but also lithium hydroxide prices to drop. Seventh, he also reinforced that because it takes months for lithium to go from mine to refinery, to cathode, to battery cell, it takes months for price reductions to show up in vehicle cost.
因此，特斯拉正在建设北美最大的锂精炼和正极生产设施。第六，扎克·柯克霍恩表示，他预计不仅碳酸锂的价格，而且氢氧化锂的价格也会下降。第七，他还强调，由于锂需要经过数月时间的开采、精炼、正极生产和电池制造，因此降价要在汽车成本中表现出来，需数月的时间。
With those key points in mind, I'll add some commentary here. Lithium carbonate is the type of lithium that's used for LFP battery cells, and lithium hydroxide is the type of lithium that's used for high nickel battery cells. So with the falling prices that Tesla expects, LFP battery prices should see really first in products like energy storage and standard range vehicles. Then nickel battery cells not far behind for products like long range or mass sensitive vehicles, like the Tesla semi.
记住这些关键点，我在这里添加一些评论。碳酸锂是用于LFP电池的锂类型，氢氧化锂是用于高镍电池的锂类型。因此，随着特斯拉预计的价格下降，LFP电池价格应该在能源储存和标准续航车辆等产品中看到真正的下降。然后，对于长续航或质量敏感的车辆，如特斯拉半挂车，高镍电池也将紧随其后。
Tesla's expectations seem to be that macroeconomic conditions will continue to worsen, which will drive prices lower. If that's the case, Tesla might not lock in contracts immediately. However, there are also alternative views out there that prices will actually rebound later this year. So it might pay for Tesla to move fast. I don't have an opinion on who will be correct here, but if you're interested, check out the article on screen by Matt Furnley of Battery Materials Review.
特斯拉的预期似乎是宏观经济状况将继续恶化，这将推低价格。如果情况如此，特斯拉可能不会立即锁定合同。然而，也有另一种观点认为价格实际上将在今年晚些时候反弹。因此，特斯拉可能会从快速行动中获益。我对谁会正确于此没有看法，但如果您感兴趣，请查看屏幕上的Battery Materials Review的Matt Furnley撰写的文章。
I can confirm that high lithium prices are driving increased activity among lithium minors, and I'll be doing a video on lithium supply in the next couple of months. In that video, I'll also cover Elon's assertion that lithium refining is the bottleneck. The short story is that currently refining isn't the bottleneck for the global market, because the margins are pretty thin for refining versus mining. With that said, Tesla isn't the global market. They may have plenty of mind lithium supply lined up, and need refining capacity localized to their 4680 lines in North America, because most refining is in China.
我可以确认高锂价格正在推动锂矿企业的活跃度增加，并且我将在接下来的几个月里制作一段关于锂供应的视频。在那个视频中，我也会涵盖埃隆的说法，即锂精炼是瓶颈。简而言之，目前全球市场上精炼并不是瓶颈，因为相对于采矿，精炼的利润空间非常小。话虽如此，特斯拉并不是全球市场。他们可能已经有了足够的采矿供应，并且需要在北美地区为他们的4680生产线提供本地化的精炼能力，因为大多数精炼在中国。
In summary, Tesla's energy storage business is ready to rip over the next couple of years. The 4680 production system is making slow, but steady progress against the targets laid out at battery day, and Tesla's positioning themselves to take advantage of low lithium prices by locking in long-term contracts.
总的来说，特斯拉的能源储存业务在接下来的几年将会蓬勃发展。4680生产系统正在按照电池日制定的目标缓慢但稳定地进展，并且特斯拉正在利用低锂价格通过签订长期合同来确立自己的优势位置。
In the next video, I'll be giving my thoughts on Tesla's rare Earth-free motor, and why, despite all the hype around new iron nitride magnets from Niron Technologies, I think ferrite may be a better choice.
在下一个视频中，我将会分享我的看法，讨论特斯拉的无稀土马达以及为什么尽管Niron Technologies的新型氮化铁磁体备受瞩目，但我认为铁氧体可能是更好的选择。
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如果您喜欢这个视频，请考虑通过视频结尾处的链接或成为YouTube会员来支持我。您可以在描述中找到详细信息。
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特别感谢我的YouTube会员和名单中的所有赞助人。我非常感谢你们的支持，谢谢你们的收听。