JPMorgan 2023 Q1 Earnings Call
发布时间 2023-04-17 05:30:53 来源
Please stand by. We are about to begin. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to J.F. First Quarter 2023 earning call. This call is being recorded. Your line will be muted for the duration of the call. We will now go live to the presentation. Please stand by.
请稍候。我们即将开始。女士们先生们，早上好。欢迎参加J.F. 2023年第一季度收益电话。此通话正在录音。在通话期间，您的线路将被静音。现在我们将转入演示。请稍候。
At this time, I would like to turn the call over to J.F. Morgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Diamond and Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum. Mr. Barnum, please go ahead.
此刻，我想将通话转交给J.F.摩根大通的主席兼首席执行官Jamie Diamond和首席财务官Jeremy Barnum。Barnum先生，请开始。
意思是：现在我想把通话交给J.F.摩根大通的两位负责人，主席兼首席执行官Jamie Diamond和首席财务官Jeremy Barnum。Barnum先生，请发言。
Thanks and good morning, everyone. The presentation is available on our website and please refer to the disclaimer in the back. Starting on page 1, the firm reported net income of $12.6 billion, EPS of $4.10 on revenue of $39.3 billion, and delivered an ROTCE of 23%. These results included 868 million of net investment securities losses and corporate.
大家好，谢谢参加今天的会议。我们的演示文稿已经上传到我们的网站上，请仔细阅读后面的免责声明。从第一页开始，公司报告了净收入126亿美元、每股收益4.10美元，营收为393亿美元，并提供23%的ROTC E，其中包括净投资证券损失和企业收益868万美元。
Before reviewing our results for the quarter, let's talk about the recent bank failures. Jamie has addressed a number of the important themes in a shareholder letter and a recent televised interview, so I will go straight to the specific impacts on the firm. As you would expect, we saw significant new account opening activity and meaningful deposit and money market fund inflows, most significantly in the commercial bank, business banking and AWM.
在回顾我们本季度业绩之前，让我们先谈谈最近发生的银行破产事件。Jamie在股东信函和最近一次电视访谈中已经涉及了很多重要主题，因此我将直接讨论对公司的具体影响。正如您所预期的那样，我们看到了显著的新账户开立活动，并且商业银行、企业银行和资产管理部门的存款和货币市场基金流入也有了有意义的增长。
Regarding the deposit inflows at the firm wide level, average deposits were down 3% quarter on quarter, while end of period deposits were up 2% quarter on quarter, implying an intra quarter reversal of the recent outflow trend as a consequence of the March events. We estimate that we have retained approximately $50 billion of these deposit inflows at quarter end. It's important to note that while the sequential period and deposit increase is higher than we would have otherwise expected, our current full year NII outflow, which I will address at the end, still assumes modest deposit outflows from here. We expect these outflows to be driven by the same factors as last quarter, as well as the expectation that we will not retain all of this quarter's inflows.
在公司整体层面上，平均存款环比下降了3%，而期末存款环比上涨了2%，这意味着3月事件的结果是，存款流出趋势在季中发生了逆转。我们估计，在季末我们大约保留了500亿美元的这些存款流入。需要注意的是，尽管环比存款增长高于我们原本的预期，但我们目前全年NII流出仍然假定从这里会有适度的存款流出，我将在最后进行讨论。我们预计这些流出将受到上个季度相同因素的推动，以及预计我们不会保留本季度所有的流入的影响。
Now back to the quarter, touching on a few highlights. We grew our IVV wallet share. Consumer spending remained solid, with combined debit and credit card spend up 10% year on year, and credit continues to normalize, but actual performance remains strong across the company. On page 2, we have some more detail. Revenue of $39.3 billion was up $7.7 billion or 25% year on year. NII X Markets was up $9.2 billion or $78% proven by higher rates partially offset by lower deposit balances. NIR X Markets was down $1.1 billion or $10% driven by the securities losses previously mentioned, as well as lower IVVs and lower auto leasing come on lower volume. And Markets revenue was down $371 million or $4% year on year.
现在回到季度报告，简要谈一下几个亮点。我们提高了IVV钱包的份额。消费支出保持稳定，借记卡和信用卡的综合支出同比增长了10%，信用卡的表现继续正常化，但公司的实际表现仍然强劲。在第二页上，我们有更多的细节。营业收入为393亿美元，同比增长77亿美元或25%。 NII X Markets同比上涨92亿美元或78%，部分抵消了较低的存款余额，其因高利率而成。NIR X Markets下降了11亿美元或10%，既由先前提到的证券损失所引起，也由于较低的IVV和较低的汽车租赁，以及较低的交易量。市场收入同比下降了3.71亿美元或4%。
Expenses of $20.1 billion or up $916 million or 5% year on year, driven by compensation-related costs reflecting the annualization of last year's headcount growth and wage inflation. These results include the impact of the higher FDIC assessment I mentioned last quarter, which, of course, is unrollated to recent events. And credit costs of $2.3 billion included net chargeoffs of $1.1 billion, predominantly in card. The net-reverb bill of $1.1 billion was largely driven by deterioration in our weighted average economic outlook.
去年的员工数量增长和工资膨胀年化反映在补偿相关成本上，导致支出达到了201亿美元，较去年同期增加了9.16亿美元或5%。这些结果包括上季度我提到的更高FDIC评估的影响，当然，这与最近发生的事件无关。2.3亿美元的信贷成本包括11亿美元的净呆账，主要集中在信用卡方面。11亿美元的净转嫁账单主要是由我们的加权平均经济前景恶化所驱动的。
On devalancy, didn't capital on page 3. We ended the quarter with a C-T-1 ratio of 13.8% up about 60 basis points, which was primarily driven by the benefit of net income, less distributions, and AOCI gains. And in line with what we previously said, we resumed stock buybacks this quarter and distributed a total of $1.9 billion in net repurchases back to shareholders.
在第3页中未提到资本贬值。我们季末的C-T-1比率为13.8％，较之前提高了约60个基点，这主要是由于净收入、分配减少和AOCI收益的好处推动的。与我们之前说过的一致，本季度我们恢复了股票回购，并向股东分配了总共19亿美元的净回购。
Now, let's go to our businesses starting with CCB on page 4. Touching quickly on the health of US consumers and small businesses based on our data. Both continue to show resilience and remain on the path normalization, as expected, but we continue to monitor their activity closely. Spend remains solid, and we have not observed any notable pullback throughout the quarter.
现在，让我们来到第4页的建设银行业务。根据我们的数据，简要谈一下美国消费者和小企业的健康状况。根据预期，两者都继续表现出坚韧性，并且保持着走向正常化的轨迹，但我们仍在密切监测它们的活动。支出仍然稳固，并且在本季度中我们并未观察到任何明显的回缩。
Moving to financial results, CCB reported net income of $5.2 billion on revenue of $16.5 billion, which was up 35% year on year. In banking and wealth management, revenue was up 67% year on year, driven by higher NII on higher rates. Hiverts' deposits were down 2% quarter on quarter in line with recent trends. Throughout the quarter, we continued to see customer flows to higher yielding products, as you would expect, but were encouraged by what we are capturing in CDs and our wealth management offerings. Fine investment assets were down 1% year on year, but up 7% quarter on quarter, driven by market performance, as well as strong net inflows.
中国建设银行报告了16.5亿美元的收入和52亿美元的净收入，同比增长35%。在银行和财富管理领域，收入同比增长67%，主要是由于更高的利率导致净利润较高。与最近的趋势一致，嗨沃兹的存款较上一季度下降了2%。在整个季度中，客户不断流向收益更高的产品，这是预料中的，但我们对我们在定期存款和财富管理方面的表现感到鼓舞。优质投资资产同比下降了1%，但季度环比增长了7%，这主要是由于市场表现以及强劲的资金净流入所推动的。
In a home lending, revenue was down 38% year on year, largely driven by lower net interest income from tighter loans spread and lower production revenue.
在家庭贷款方面，收入同比下降了38%，主要是由于较紧的贷款利差和较低的生产收入导致的净利息收入下降。
Moving to card services in auto, revenue was up 14% year on year, largely driven by higher card services in NII on higher revolving balances, partially offset by lower auto lease income. Credit card spend was up 13% year on year, card outstanding was up 21% driven by strong new account growth and revolve normalization, and in auto, originations were 9.2 billion up 10% year on year.
汽车卡片服务的收入同比增长14％，主要得益于高转动结余的卡片服务NII。与此同时，由于汽车租赁收入的下降，部分抵消了这一增长。信用卡消费同比增长13％，卡片未偿金额同比增长21％，受强劲的新账户增长和转动正常化的推动。汽车方面，贷款的发放额同比增长了10％，达到92亿美元。
Expenses of 8.1 billion were up 5% year on year, reflecting the impact of wage inflation in a higher headcount. In terms of credit performance this quarter, credit costs were 1.4 billion, reflecting reserve bills of 300 million in card and 15 million in home lending. That charge off for 1.1 billion up about 500 million year on year, in line with expectations as the link to the levels continue to normalize across portfolios.
去年费用是81亿，比前一年增长了5%，这反映出员工人数增加和工资上涨的影响。这个季度的信用表现方面，信用成本是14亿，其中信用卡预留金3亿，房屋贷款预留金1500万。坏账损失是11亿，比去年增加了大约5亿，符合预期，因为各组合之间的表现继续趋向正常化。
Next, the CIV on page 5. CIV reported net income of 4.4 billion on revenue of 13.6 billion. Investment banking revenue of 1.6 billion was down 24% year on year. IB fees were down 19%, we ranked number one with first quarter of all at share of 8.7%. In advisory fees were down 6%, compared to a strong first quarter last year. Our underwriting businesses continued to be affected by market conditions with fees down 34% for debt and 6% for equity. In terms of the outlook, the dynamics remained the same. Our pipeline is relatively robust, but conversion is sensitive to market conditions and the economic outlook. We expect the second quarter and the rest of the year to remain challenging.
接着，第5页是关于CIV的报道。CIV报告了净利润为44亿美元，收入为136亿美元。投资银行业务的收入为16亿美元，同比下降了24%。投行费用下降了19%，我们在第一季度的份额达到了8.7%，排名第一。在咨询费用方面，同比下降了6%，与去年强劲的第一季度相比。我们的承销业务仍然受到市场条件的影响，债务承销费用下降了34%，股票承销费用下降了6%。就展望而言，局势仍然相同。我们的业务储备仍然相对坚实，但转换情况会对市场条件和经济前景非常敏感。我们预计第二季度和本年度的情况仍然充满挑战。
Moving to markets, total revenue was 8.4 billion down 4% year on year. Ex income was flat. Rates was strong during the rally early in the quarter, as well as through the elevated volatility in March. Credit was up on the back of higher client flows and current user-merching markets was down relative to a very strong first quarter in the prior year. Equity markets was down 12%, driven by lower revenues and derivatives relative to a strong first quarter in the prior year, and lower client activity in cash. Payments revenue was 2.4 billion up 26% year on year. Excluding the net impact of equity investments, primarily again in the prior year, it was up 55% with the growth driven by higher rates partially offset by lower deposit balances. Security services revenue of 1.1 billion was up 7% year on year driven by higher rates, partially offset by lower deposit balances and market levels. Expenses of 7.5 billion were up 2% year on year, as higher headcount and wage inflation were largely offset by lower revenue-related compensation.
转向市场方面，总收入为84亿美元，同比下降4%。非利息收入持平。利率在季初的反弹和三月份的高波动性期间表现强劲。信贷由于客户流量增加而上升，而当前的用户购买市场相对于上一年的强劲第一季度有所下降。股票市场下跌12%，由于收益和衍生品相对于去年强劲的第一季度下降，并且现金的客户活动较少。支付收入为24亿美元，同比增长26%。排除以前年度的股权投资净影响，收入增长55%，增长主要由于利率上涨部分抵消了存款余额的下降。安全服务收入为11亿美元，同比增长7%，利率上升部分抵消了存款余额和市场水平的下降。费用为75亿美元，同比增长2%，由于人员数增加和工资通胀，但这部分增长主要被低收入有关的补偿抵消。
Moving to the commercial bank on page 6. Commercial banking reported net income of 1.3 billion. Revenue of 3.5 billion was up 46% year on year driven by higher deposit margins. Payments revenue of 2 billion was up 98% year on year driven by higher rates and gross investment banking revenue of 881 million was up 21% year on year. I increased M&A and bond underwriting from large deal activity. Expenses of 1.3 billion were up 16% year on year largely driven by higher compensation expense, including front office hiring and technology investments, as well as higher volume-related expense.
转到第6页的商业银行部分。商业银行报告净收入13亿美元。营收达35亿美元，同比增长46%，主要由于较高的存款利率驱动。支付收入20亿美元，同比增长98%，主要由于较高的费率和总投资银行收入达8.81亿美元，同比增长21%。母公司和债券承销业务的增加来自于大型交易活动。支出达13亿美元，同比增长16%，主要是由于较高的薪酬支出，包括前台雇用和技术投资，以及较高的与交易量相关的费用。
I averaged deposits were down 16% year on year and 5% quarter on quarter, predominantly driven by continued attrition and non-operating deposits, as well as seasonally lower balances.
我平均存款同比下降16%，季度同比下降5%，主要原因是持续的流失和非运营存款，以及季节性较低的余额。
Lones were up 13% year on year and 1% sequentially. CNI loans were up 1% quarter on quarter with somewhat different dynamics based on client size. In middle-market banking, higher rates and recession concerns have decreased new loan demand and utilization, which is also leading to weakness in cab backspending.
去年贷款增长了13%，环比增长1%。根据客户规模，CNI贷款季度环比增长1%，其动态稍有不同。在中型银行业务中，高利率和经济衰退的担忧降低了新贷款需求和利用率，这也导致出租车后期支出疲软。
In corporate client banking, utilization rates increased modestly quarter on quarter, as capital market conditions led more clients to opt for bank debt. CNI loans were also up 1% sequentially, with higher rates creating headwinds for both originations and prepayments. And given the recent focus on commercial real estate, whether or not let me remind you that our office sector exposure is less than 10% of our portfolio and is focused in urban-dunced markets, and nearly two-thirds of our loan to our multifamily primarily in supply constrained markets.
在企业客户银行业务方面，由于资本市场条件导致更多客户选择银行债务，利用率按季节性适度增加。 CNI贷款也同比增长1％，较高的利率对发起和预付款都造成了困难。鉴于最近关注商业地产，我想提醒大家，我们的办公室部门风险暴露在我们的投资组合中少于10％，并且聚焦于大城市市场，我们的住宅贷款的近三分之二主要集中在供应受限制的市场。
Finally, credit costs of 417 million included in net reserve build of 379 million, predominantly driven by what I mentioned up front. Then, to complete our lines of business, AWM on page 7. Asset and the multi-management reported net income of 1.4 billion, three tax margin of 35%. Revenue of 4.8 billion was up 11% year on year, driven by higher deposit margins on lower balances and evaluation gain on our initial investment, triggered by taking full ownership of our asset management joint venture in China, partially offset by the impact of lower average market levels on management fees and lower performance fees. Expenses of 3.1 billion were up 8% year on year, predominantly driven by compensation, reflecting growth in our private banking advisor teams, higher revenue-related compensation, and the run rate impact of acquisitions. But the quarter net long-term inflows were 47 billion led by fixed income inequities. Then liquidity, we saw an inflow of 93 billion inclusive or of our ongoing deposit migration. AWM of 3 trillion was up 2% year on year, and overall fine assets of 4.3 trillion were up 6%, driven by continued net inflows into liquidity and long-term products. And finally, loans were down 1% quarter on quarter, driven by lower securities based lending, while average deposits were down 5%.
最后，在净储备建设中包括了4.17亿的信贷成本，主要是受到我前面提到的因素的推动。然后，为了完善我们的业务线，第7页的AWM资产和多元管理报告了14亿的净收入，税前利润率为35%。4.8亿的营业额同比增长了11%，主要是因为低余额的存款利差增加和我们在中国资产管理合资企业中的初次投资获得评估收益，部分抵消了市场平均水平下降对管理费用和绩效费用的影响。31亿的开支同比增长了8%，主要是由于薪酬的增加，反映了我们的私人银行顾问团队的增长，更高的与收入相关的补偿，以及收购的运营影响。但本季度的净长期流入为470亿，以固定收益和股票为主。然后是流动性，我们看到包括正在进行的存款迁移在内的930亿流入。AWM的3万亿同比增长了2%，总净资产4.3万亿，同比增长了6%，主要是由于流动性和长期产品的持续净流入。最后，贷款季度环比下降了1%，主要是由于证券质押贷款的减少，而平均存款下降了5%。
Running to corporate on page 8, corporate reported net income of 244 million. Revenue was 985 million compared to a net loss of 881 million last year. NII was 1.7 billion, up 2.3 billion year on year, due to the impact of higher rates. NII was a loss of 755 million compared with a loss of 345 million in the prior year, and included in that investment securities losses I mentioned earlier. Expenses of 160 million were down 24 million year on year. And credit costs of 370 million were driven by reserve builds on a couple of single-name exposures.
翻译：在第8页专门介绍公司情况，公司报告净收入为2.44亿。收入为9.85亿，去年净亏损为8.81亿。净利息收入为17亿，同比增长23亿，受较高利率影响。与去年亏损3.45亿相比，净利息收入为负7.55亿，其中包括我之前提到的投资证券亏损。支出为1.6亿，同比减少2.4亿。信贷成本为3.7亿，是由于某些单一名义暴露而产生的储备建设驱动的。
意思：这段话描述了该公司的财务状况，从净收入、利息收入、支出和信贷成本等方面进行了分析。它强调了公司的净收入和利息收入的增长，以及支出的减少，但也提到了投资证券亏损和信贷成本的增加。
Next, the Outlook on page 9. We now expect 20, 23, NII and NII X markets to be approximately 81 billion. This increase in guidance is primarily driven by lower rate paid assumptions across both consumer and wholesale in light of the expectation of FedCubs later in the year, as well as slightly higher card revolving balances. Note that in line with my comments at the outset, recent deposit balance increases are not a meaningful contributor to the upper division in the NII Outlook, given that we expect a meaningful portion of the recent inflows to reverse later in the year. I would point out that this Outlook still embeds significant reprise lags.
在第9页的展望中，我们预计20、23、NII和NII X市场的规模将达到约810亿美元。这一指引的提升主要是由于在考虑今年晚些时候联邦储备委员会(FedCubs)的预期下，消费者和批发领域支付的利率假设降低，以及稍微增加的信用卡循环余额。需要注意的是，根据我之前的评论，最近存款余额的增加并未对NII展望中的上限做出意义贡献，因为我们预计最近一部分流入资金将在今年晚些时候撤回。我要指出，这个展望仍然包含了重要的收益回报滞后期。
We think a more sustainable NII X markets run rate in the medium term is well below this quarter's 84 billion, as well as below the 80 billion that is implied for the rest of the year by our full year guidance. And while we don't know exactly when this lower run rate will be reached, when it happens, we believe it will be around the mid-70s. And of course, as we mentioned last quarter, this NII Outlook remains highly sensitive to the uncertainty associated with the timing and the extent of deposit reprise, investment portfolio decisions, the dynamics of QT and RRP, the trajectory of Fed funds, as well as the broader macroeconomic environment, including its impact on long growth. Separately, toward noting that markets and NII may start to trend slightly positive towards the end of the year as a function of mix and rate effects.
我们认为，在中期内，更可持续的NII X市场运营率远低于本季度的840亿美元，也低于我们提供的全年指导的剩余80亿美元。虽然我们不知道何时会达到这种较低的运营率，但当发生时，我们相信它将在中期的70年代左右。当然，正如我们在上一季度提到的那样，NII展望仍然极其敏感，取决于存款复利、投资组合决策、QT和RRP的动态、联邦基金的轨迹，以及更广泛的宏观经济环境，包括对长期增长的影响。另外，我们注意到，由于混合物和利率效应的影响，市场和NII可能会在年底开始略微向好趋势。
Moving to expenses, our Outlook for 2023 continues to be about 81 billion. Importantly, this does not currently include the impact of the pending FDIC special assessment. And on credit, we continue to expect the 2023 card net charge off rate to be approximately 2.6%.
转向费用方面，我们对2023年的前景仍然保持在约810亿美元左右。重要的是，这目前不包括即将实施的FDIC特别评估的影响。在信用方面，我们仍然预计2023年信用卡净计提率约为2.6%。
But a wrap-up, our strong results this quarter once again highlight the earnings power of this diversified franchise. We have benefited from our four-trust principles and commitment to invest what we will continue to do as we head into an increasingly uncertain environment.
总之，本季度强劲的业绩再次凸显了我们多元化业务的盈利能力。我们从四位信任原则中获益，并致力于投资，这是我们在步入越来越不确定的环境中会继续做的事情。
With that operator, please open the line. From the line of Steve Chubach with Wolf Research. Now open.
请使用该运营商打开线路。来自Steve Chubach与Wolf Research的线路。现在打开。
Hey, good morning. Jamie, I was actually hoping to get your perspective on how you see the recent developments with SVB impacting the regulatory landscape for the big banks. In your letter, you spent the fair amount of time highlighting the consequences of overly stringent capital requirements, the risk of skeering more activities to the less regulated non-banks, order some of the changes that you're scenario planning for, whether a higher capital increase in FDIC assessment fees, and along those same lines, how you're thinking about the buyback given continued strong capital build, but a lot of macro uncertainty at the moment.
早上好，Jamie。我希望了解您对SVB最近的发展如何影响大型银行监管环境的看法。在您的信中，您花费不少时间强调过严的资本要求的后果，让更多的活动转移到监管较少的非银行机构，还讨论了你场景规划中的一些变化，如更高的资本增加和FDIC评估费用，同样的，您如何考虑股票回购以及目前存在的宏观不确定性等。希望以上信息对您有所帮助，非常感谢。
I think you were already kind of complete with the answer in your own question there. We're hoping that everyone just takes a deep breath and looks at what happened and the breadth and depth of regulation is already in place. Obviously, when something happens like this, you should adjust thinking about it. I think down the road there may be some limitations on health and maturity, maybe more T-lack for certain type side banks and more scrutiny on insuride expoers and stuff like that, but it doesn't have to be a revamp of the whole system. It's just weak calibrating things the right way. I think it should be done knowing what you want the outcome to be.
我认为你在自己的问题中已经得出了答案。我们希望每个人都能深呼吸，看看已经存在的监管范围和深度。显然，当发生这样的事情时，你应该调整对它的思考。我认为今后可能会对健康和成熟度有一些限制，也许某些类型的银行会更缺乏T和更多的监管和审查，但这不必完全重构整个系统。这只是正确调整事物的弱点。我认为应该知道你想要的结果来完成它。
The outcome you should want is very strong community and regional banks, and you know, certain actions are taken which are drastic. It could actually make them weaker. So that's all it is. We do expect higher capital from Basel IV effectively, and obviously, this is going to be FDI assessment. That'll be what it is.
你应该想要的结果是非常强大的社区和区域银行。但你知道，某些采取的行动是极端的，可能会使它们变得更脆弱。所以这就是事情的实际情况。我们确实期望巴塞尔四号协议中的资本要求更高，显然，这也将是外商直接投资的评估依据。
And just in terms of appetite for the buyback, just given some of the elevated macro uncertainty. Well, I think we've told you that we're kind of potentially in 12 billion for this year. Obviously, capital is more than that, but and we did a little bit of buyback this quarter. We're going to wait and see. We don't mind keeping our powder dry. You've seen us do that with investment portfolios, and we're also going to do it with capital. That's great.
考虑到当前宏观不确定性较高，我们对回购的兴趣就如何呢？我们已经向您表示，我们今年可能会达到120亿美元的回购量，纵观所有的资本剩余额，也会超过这个数字，同时，这个季度我们也进行了一些回购。但我们将继续观望，不介意保持现有的储备。我们在投资组合方面已经采取了这种策略， 在资本上我们也会这么做。
I'll hop back into Cuba. Thanks so much for taking my questions. Thank you.
我会回到古巴，非常感谢你回答我的问题。谢谢你。
The next question comes from the line of Ken Eason with Jeffrey. You may proceed.
下一个问题来自Ken Eason的Jeffrey系列。你可以继续提问。
意思是：接下来的问题来自于Jeffrey公司的Ken Eason，请继续发问。
Hey, thanks. Good morning. Hey, Jeremy, I was just wondering if you can just give us a little bit more detail on those lower funding expectation points that you made just in terms of, you know, is it is it because of like what you can offer the client that might allow you to kind of keep that bait a lower and maybe you can just kind of wrap it into what your your overall beta expectations are in that revised update. Thank you.
你好，谢谢。早上好。嗨，杰里米，我在想你能否详细解释一下关于那些低资金预期方面的事情，比如说，你能够为客户提供什么，使得你能够保持较低的预期，并且也能同时考虑到你所做的修改更新的总体期望值。谢谢你。
Yeah, sure. So let me just summarize the drivers of the change in the outlook. So the primary driver really is lower deposit rate paid expectations across both consumer and wholesale, which as you mentioned is driven by a couple factor. So the change in the rate environment, you know, with cuts coming sooner in the outlook, all else equal does take some pressure off the reprise. And as you said, we're getting a lot of positive feedback from the field on our product offerings. The short term CD in particular is really getting a lot of positive feedback from our folks in the branches. It's been very attractive to you. It's seeking customers. So that's kind of working well. And then on the asset side, we are seeing a little bit higher car removal, which is helping. And I'll just remind you that at a conference in February, I suggested that we were already starting to feel like some of the uncertainties we mentioned when giving the guidance had started all moving in the same direction. And that was that was one of the things that contributed to the upper division, like all the uncertainty kind of went the same way. But as Jamie pointed out, like, you know, that those uncertainties are all still there. We highlight them on the page. And as we look forward to this year and the next year and the medium term, we remain very focused on those.
是的，当然。那让我来总结一下我们展望变化的主要原因。最主要的推动力是消费者和批发商对付款预期的下调，正如你所提到的，这是由几个因素共同推动的。随着利率环境的变化，预计削减时间提前，其他条件不变，这减轻了再评估的压力。正如你所说，我们的产品提供在业界获得了很多积极反馈，尤其是短期CD，分支机构的人们给予了很多赞誉，它在吸引客户方面非常有吸引力。这方面的效果不错。在资产方面，我们看到汽车拆解的增加程度有所提高，这也有所帮助。我想提醒大家的是，今年二月份的一次会议上，我建议我们已经开始感觉到我们提供指导时提到的一些不确定性已经开始同时朝着同一个方向发展。那是促成上述变化的其中之一，所有不确定性都朝着同一个方向发展。但正如杰米指出的那样，这些不确定性都还存在。我们在页面上强调了这一点。在展望今年、明年和中期时，我们仍然非常关注这些不确定因素。
Yeah. And as a follow-up on the point about rate expectations coming now in and potentially getting cut sooner, how do you take a look at what that might mean just for the broader economy? Is that do you think it's more just because inflation is coming down? Do you think it's because the feds just got to react to an even tougher economy and still some of those storm clouds that might be out there? Just kind of, you know, just your general thinking about the other read-throughs of what, you know, lower rates quicker, you know, will mean for the broader economy.
是的。关于利率预期现在出现并且可能更快地被降低的观点的后续，您如何看待这可能对整个经济的意义？这是因为通货膨胀下降吗？还是因为联邦机构必须对更加严峻的经济形势做出反应，以及一些可能存在的风险因素？您对“降低利率更快意味着什么”的其他解读的一般观点是什么？请尽量通俗易懂地表达。
Well, I was, first of all, I don't quite believe it. So, you know, the rate curve, the Fed has the rate curve, the forward short to rate curve, you know, almost a 1% higher than what the market has. So, you know, one of the things you've got to always prepare for is it could be anything. We don't know if the rate curve is going to be in a year. And so, you know, we're quite cautious in that and quite thoughtful about that.
首先，我不太相信这个。你知道，利率曲线，联邦储备委员会的利率曲线和市场利率曲线之间的短期利率曲线，几乎比市场高了1%。所以，你知道，我们必须始终做好准备，因为未来一年的利率曲线有可能是任何样子。所以，我们对此非常谨慎和周到。
You know, obviously the shorter read is higher recessionary risk, you know, but, you know, and then inflation coming down. So, I think your facial come down a little bit. It could easily be stickier than people think and therefore the rate curve will have to go up a little bit.
你知道，显然，读起来较短的风险更高，你知道，但是通货膨胀回落。所以，我认为你的表情也要放松一些。它可能比人们想象的更难以改变，因此利率曲线将不得不升高一点。
Okay, thank you very much. Thank you.
好的，非常感谢。谢谢。
表达意思：表示感谢。
The next question comes from the line of John McDonald with autonomous research. You may proceed.
下一个问题来自自治研究的约翰·麦克唐纳德。请您提问。
（意思是一位来自自治研究的约翰·麦克唐纳德将会提问，你可以开始回答他）
Hi, thanks. Jeremy wanted to follow up again on the drivers of the NII revision and the lower rates paid assumption. You mentioned the Fed cuts coming sooner and positive feedback on the customer offers. What about the March events? Do the bank failures there that happened in March? In your view, do they slow the reprice intensity because folks are moving other than price reasons or they intensify it industry-wide because smaller banks have to reprice to keep their deposits. How do those events influence your view of the reprice?
你好，谢谢。Jeremy想再次跟进一下NII修正的驱动因素和较低的付款率假设。您提到了联邦基金利率的下调迫在眉睫，以及客户优惠反馈良好。那3月份的事件呢？是否那时发生的银行倒闭事件对重新定价程度产生了影响？在您看来，这是否因为人们出于价格以外的原因而进行转移，从而减缓了重新定价的强度，还是在整个行业范围内加强了它，因为较小的银行不得不重新定价以保持其存款？这些事件会如何影响您对重新定价的看法？
Yeah, John, it's a really good question and we obviously thought about that, but as we said here today, I guess I have two answers that one is it doesn't, it's not meaningfully affecting our current outlook. We don't see a dozen major drivers. And I think in terms of the larger dynamics that you lay out, it's just a little too early to tell, but from where we are right now, the base case is no real impact.
是的，John，这是一个非常好的问题，我们显然已经考虑过了，但正如今天我们所说的，我想我有两个答案。第一个是，它对我们目前的展望没有产生实质性的影响。我们没有看到很多重要的因素。我认为，在你所提出的更大的动态方面，现在还为时过早，但从我们目前的位置来看，基本情况是没有真正的影响。
Okay, and then I wanted to ask Jamie, there's a narrative out there that the industry could see a credit crunch. Banks are going to stop lending, even Jay Powell mentioned that as a risk. Do you see that in terms of anything you look at in terms of lending? Is that a reaction that makes sense that banks might be re-reaching a lot here? Do you worry about that for the economy in terms of credit crunch? Thanks.
好的，我想问一下杰米，当前有一种说法，即整个行业可能会出现信贷紧缩的局面。银行将停止贷款，甚至杰·鲍威尔也提及该风险。在你看来，从你所涉及的任何贷款方面来看，你是否认为这种情况可能发生？银行现在被迫采取的措施是有意义的吗？在外债危机的情况下，你是否担心对经济会产生影响？谢谢。
Hi, I wouldn't use the word credit crunch if I were to you. Obviously, there's going to be a little bit of tightening. And most of that will be around certain real estate things. You've heard it from real estate investors already. So, I just look at that as a kind of a thumb on the scale. It just makes the fans condition a little bit tighter, increases the odds of a recession. That's what that is. It's not like a credit crunch.
嗨，如果我是你，我不会使用信用紧缩这个词。显然，会有一点收紧。而且大部分都会关于某些房地产方面的事情。你已经从房地产投资者那里听到过了。所以，我认为这只是一个对情况进行轻微抑制的方式。它只是使形势稍微收紧，增加了经济衰退的可能性。这就是它的意思。它不像信用紧缩。
Thank you. Our next question comes from Erica Najarian with UBS. You may proceed.
谢谢。下一个问题来自UBS的Erica Najarian，请提问。
Hi, good morning. My first question is you mentioned that your reserve bill was driven mostly by worse economic assumptions. I'm wondering if you could update us on what unemployment rate you're assuming in your reserve?
你好，早上好。我的第一个问题是，您提到您的储备账单主要受到经济预期恶化的影响。我想知道您在储备中假设了什么失业率？请给我们更新一下。
Yes, Erica. As you know, we take, I'm going to go into a lot of detail here, but we take the outlook from our economists. We've gone to a bunch of different scenarios, and we probably weighed those. The central case outlook from our research team hasn't actually changed, but we felt that in line with what Jamie just said in terms of a little bit of tightening, as a result of the events of March, it made sense to add a little bit of weight to our relative adverse case. We did that, which changed the weighted average expectation. I think that weighted average peak unemployment that we're using now is something like 5.8%.
是的，Erica。正如你所知，我们采取我们经济学家的展望。我们已经考虑了许多不同的情景，并且进行了权衡。研究团队的中央案例展望实际上并没有改变，但是考虑到Jamie所说的略微收紧的情况，由于三月份发生的事件，增加相对不利情况的权重是有道理的。我们做出了这样的改变，这改变了加权平均期望。我认为我们现在使用的加权平均最高失业率大约是5.8%。
As you think about all of what you've just told us, 81 billion of NII this year, and who knows when medium term is going to happen in mid-70s. The clear strength of the franchise producing 23% roti in a quarter where you're C-21 of 13.8%. And a reserve that already reflects 5.8% unemployment. As we think about recession and what JP Morgan can earn in a recession, do you think you can hit 17% roti even in 2024 assuming we do have a recession in 2024, everybody's expecting, given all these revenue dynamics and how prepared you are on the reserve?
当你思考你刚才告诉我们的所有内容，81亿美元的净利息收入今年可能会产生，而谁知道中期会在70年代中期发生。该特许经营权的明显优势是在一个你的C-21为13.8%的季度生产了23%的退换货。而且，储备已经反映了5.8%的失业率。当我们考虑经济衰退以及摩根大通在经济衰退中可以赚取多少时，考虑到所有这些收入动态以及你们在储备方面的准备，你认为即使在2024年有一场经济衰退，你可以达到17%的退换货率吗？
Yeah, I mean that's an interesting question, Erica. I guess I'll say a couple things. It's a great question, so Jeremy Edgess it. Okay, let's take a crack. Let's see what the past things.
嗯，这是一个有趣的问题，艾瑞卡。我想我会说一些事情。这是一个很好的问题，所以让我们来思考一下。让我们看看历史上发生了什么。
I think number one, we believe, have said and continue to believe that this is fundamentally a 17% of the cycle roti franchise. So number one.
我认为，我们相信并坚信，这基本上是一个占周期旋转烤饼连锁餐厅17%的份额。所以，第一。
Number two, as Jamie O. says, we run this company for all different scenarios and to have it be as resilient as possible across all different scenarios. On the particular question of roti expectations in 2024, contingent on the particular economic outlook, obviously it depends a lot on the nature of the recession. I think we feel really good about how the company is positioned for a recession, but we're back. A very serious recession is of course going to be a headline aheadwind for returns, but we think even in a fairly severe recession we'll deliver very good returns. Whether that's 17% or not is too much detail for now. Thank you.
正如Jamie O.所说，我们经营这家公司是为了应对各种不同的情况，并使其在不同的情况下尽可能具有弹性。关于2024年印度煎饼（roti）的预期，它取决于特定的经济前景，显然它在很大程度上取决于衰退的性质。我们认为公司在衰退中的定位非常好，但是我们需要注意，严重的经济衰退当然会对收益造成很大影响，但即使在相当严重的经济衰退中，我们也会提供非常好的回报。无论这个数字是17%还是其他的，现在讨论确实太详细了。谢谢。
The next question comes from the line of just some of the C-PORC global security. You may proceed.
下一个问题来自C-PORC全球安全的某些成员。你可以继续提问。
意思是某些C-PORC全球安全的成员想提问问题。
Hey, good morning. Maybe just a little bit on the deposit, your thought process there, you've seen some inflows. Why do you think they lose them going forward and just maybe talk a little bit about the dynamic and pricing? Do you feel like given the inflows, do you see some pricing power for the larger banks?
嗨，早上好。也许关于存款方面，您的思考过程就仅仅有一点点。您已经注意到一些资金流入。您认为它们将来为什么会流失？同时，您是否可以简单谈一下动态和定价的情况？考虑到这些资金的流入，您是否认为较大的银行具有一定的定价权？
Yeah, a couple of things there. So first of all, we don't know, right? The deposits just came in. We don't know. We're guessing. Number two, the deposits just came in. So by definition these are somewhat flighty deposits because they just came into us. So it's prudent and appropriate for us to assume that they won't be particularly stable. Number three, there's a natural amount of interal migration of deposits to money funds. So you have to overlay that and that's embedded in our assumptions. And number four, it's a competitive market and you know, it's entirely possible that people temporarily come to us and then over time decide to go elsewhere. So for all those reasons, we're just being realistic about the stickiness of the market. I would say category, there's no pricing power that the bigger banks have. Because if you look at the pricing and we look at pricing sheets all the time, every bank is in a slightly different position and every bank is competing in three months, six months, nine months, savings rates. And then you have the online banks. You got treasury bills. You got money market funds. There's no pricing power for the bank, but obviously we'll have different franchises and roll into slightly different position.
嗯，有几件事情需要注意一下。首先，我们不知道，是吧? 存款刚刚到账，我们不知道。我们在猜测。其次，存款刚刚到账，因此根据定义，这些存款是比较不稳定的，所以我们谨慎和适当地假定它们不会特别稳定。第三，有一定数量的存款自然地向货币基金迁移。因此，我们必须加以考虑并将其嵌入我们的假设之中。第四，这是一个竞争激烈的市场，人们很可能会暂时来到我们这里，然后随着时间的推移，决定去其他地方。因此，出于所有这些原因，我们只是实事求是地看待市场的黏性。我认为，在分类上，大银行没有定价权。因为如果你看看定价表，我们一直看，每个银行都处于略微不同的位置，并在三个月、六个月、九个月的存款利率竞争中。然后你有在线银行，你有国库券，你有货币市场基金。银行没有定价权，但显然我们会有不同的特许经营权并处于略微不同的位置。
Now fair, all fair points. And maybe just follow up on John's question on the lending environment. You talked about the industry likely pulling back. Are you changing your underwriting standards in any way? Just trying to think through as their potential for the market share gains given your strengths, capital and liquidity or how are you thinking about the loan environment?
现在说得很清楚，所有的观点都很公正。也许可以对约翰的借贷环境提出一些问题。你谈到行业可能会收缩。你是否会以任何方式改变你的核保标准？只是想思考一下，给定你的实力、资本和流动性，市场份额的增长潜力是否存在，或者你是如何思考贷款环境的？
We look at that all the time. Yeah, and we always say, right, we underwrite through the cycle. And I think notably, we didn't lose center underwriting standards when all the numbers looked crazy good during the pandemic. And we're not going to like, you know, over-react now and tighten them reasonably. Some of that correction happens naturally, you know, credit metrics to cheer rate for borrower, for their income to more wholesale. And that might make them leave our pre-existing risk appetite. But we're not running around aggressively tightening standards right now.
我们一直注视着这个问题。是的，我们总是说，我们要跨越周期承担风险。值得注意的是，在疫情期间，尽管数据看起来非常好，我们没有失去中心承保标准。现在我们也不会过度反应，而是以合理的方式收紧标准。部分调整会自然发生，例如，信用指标会因借款人收入的下降而降低，因此可能会使他们离开我们现有的风险承受能力。但我们现在不会激进地收紧标准。
Okay, great. Thanks. The next question comes from the line of Gerard Caterpity with RBC Capital Market. You might proceed.
好的，非常好。谢谢。下一个问题来自RBC资本市场的杰拉德·凯特皮蒂。请继续提问。
意思是：非常好，感谢您。下一个问题由来自RBC Capital Market的杰拉德·凯特皮蒂提出。您可以继续提问。
Thank you. Hi, Jeremy. In your comments about your CET-1 ratio, obviously, came in strong at 13.8%. You've got the G-Cit buffers, obviously, going up next year. And we have the stress test coming this summer or in June, the results, which maybe will lead to banks, including yours having a higher stress capital buffer. Wait, should we think about that CET-1 ratio being by the end of the year, do you think?
谢谢你。嗨，Jeremy。在你关于 CET-1 比率的评论中，明显是很强的，达到了 13.8%。显然，下一年你们的G-CIT 缓冲资金将会增加。还有，这个夏天（或者在六月份），有压力测试的结果会出来，这可能会导致包括你们的银行在压力资本缓冲方面更高。等等，你认为这个 CET-1 比率在年底的时候我们应该考虑一下吗？
Yeah, so a few things in their Gerard. So, you know, we've previously said that we were targeting 13.5 in the first quarter of 24 as a function of assuming an unchanged SDB, the increased G-Cit step in operating with a 50 basis point buffer. So the point that Jeremy made a second ago, in light of the environment, Bussel 4, Drive Powder, you know, who knows how we'll tweak that, you know, going forward. But that's still our base case assumption.
嗯，关于杰拉德的一些事情。我们之前说过，如果假定不变的SDB、增加的G-Cit步进和50个基点的缓冲，我们的目标是在2024年第一季度达到13.5。正如杰里米之前提到的，考虑到环境因素如BS4和Drive Powder，我们未来可能需要进行调整，但这仍然是我们的基本假设。
Specifically on the stress test, you know, I'll contraight what I've heard some people argue, our ability to predict the SDB ahead of time from running our own processes actually quite limited. And you'll remember last year that even though we did predict an increase, we were off by almost a factor of two in terms of how big it lined up being. And that was a big surprise for the whole industry. So we want to be quite humble about our ability to predict the SDB, but having said that for right now, we are assuming it will be unchanged. There are some tailwinds in there through the OCI, but we believe there will likely be some offsets in harsher credit shocks in the number. So for planning purposes right now, we're assuming flat for SDB and we'll know soon or not, you know, what the actual number is.
具体到压力测试方面，你知道，我要反驳一些人认为的那种观点，就是我们通过运行自己的流程来预测SDB的能力实际上是非常有限的。去年虽然我们确实预测到了一些增长，但是实际上结果比我们预期的还要大一倍左右。这对整个行业来说都是一个巨大的惊喜。因此，我们要保持谦虚，不要高估自己预测SDB的能力。然而，目前我们认为它不会发生变化。尽管OCI存在一些推动作用，但我们认为可能会受到更严重的信用冲击的影响。因此，我们目前的计划是假定SDB不变，很快就会知道实际数字了。
Sure. And then just as a follow-up, if I heard you correctly, can you give us a little more color? I think you mentioned in building the Lone Loss Reserve this quarter, you identified some one-off credits, I don't know if that's how you said it, there's some larger credits, were they commercial real estate orientated with a commercial, any more color there? No, it wasn't commercial real estate. It was just a couple of single name items in the corporate segment. Leverage loan type items are just regular corporate credits. Regular corporate credits, I'd rather not get into too much. Okay, okay. Very good. Thank you.
当然。接下来，如果我听明白了的话，你能给我们再提供一些细节吗？在这个季度建立孤独损失储备时，你提到了一些一次性信贷，不知道这是你的说法，是否有一些较大的信贷，是否是有关商业地产的信贷？可以再提供一些细节吗？不是商业地产的信贷。那只是公司部门中的一些单个名字的信贷。杠杆贷款类型的项目只是定期公司信贷。普通公司信贷，我宁愿不过多谈论。好的，好的。非常感谢。
The next question comes from the line of Ibrahim Kunowala with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. You may proceed. Good morning. I guess maybe one question, Jeremy, you reminded us of the relatively low office exposure for JPM, but obviously your big players in the CRE market. Give us a sense of when you look at the two pressure points on CRE, one, how much is oversupply, and that probably goes beyond office and to apartments, how much of a issue is oversupply in the market as we think about the next few years going into a weakening economy, and how much of a risk is higher for longer rates in that if the central bank's current credits in the next year or two, we will see a ton of more pain because of the DeFi wall that's coming up.
这个问题来自美银美林的Ibrahim Kunowala。请您回答这个问题。早上好。我想问Jeremy一个问题，你提醒我们JPM的办公室占比相对较低，但显然你们在CRE市场是大型玩家。请告诉我们，当你看到CRE上的两个压力点时，一个是市场供应过剩（包括公寓），在我们考虑未来几年经济趋于疲弱时，这个问题有多大，另一个是如果中央银行在未来一两年维持当前的信贷政策，长期利率有多高风险，我们将看到更多因颠覆金融行业的创新带来的痛苦。
Yes, we were in mummy to respond narrowly in connection with our portfolio and our exposure, right? So really the large majority of our commercial real estate exposure is multi-family lending in supply constrained markets. And I think it's quite important to recognize the difference between that and higher price point, non-run controlled, not supply constrained markets. So our space is really quite different in that respect. And I think that's a big part of the reason the performance has been so good for so long. So of course we watch it very carefully and we don't assume that customer performance predicts future results here, but I think our multi-family lending portfolio is quite low risk in the scheme of things. There's also housing is in short supply in America, but it's not massively oversupplied like you saw in 2008. Yeah, in terms of the office spaces, our exposure is quite small. Yes, Jamie has also mentioned all the refi dynamics that you mentioned too, or something that the office space is processing one way or the other. Our office exposure is quite modest, very concentrated in class A, buildings in sort of dense urban locations where the return to the office narrative is one of the drivers is generally in favor of high occupancy. So again, watching it, there are obviously specific things here and there to pay attention to, but in the scheme of things for us, not a big issue.
是的，我们在与我们的投资组合和风险敞口有关的事项上非常谨慎，对吗？所以，实际上我们绝大多数的商业房地产风险是多户家庭住宅贷款，在供应紧缩市场中。我认为，认识到这一点与高价位、非控制运营和供应不足的市场有所不同非常重要。因此，在这方面，我们的空间是非常不同的。我认为，这是长期表现如此好的主要原因之一。当然，我们非常仔细地观察，并不认为客户表现预示着未来的结果，但我认为我们的多居住贷款组合在总体上相当低风险。此外，美国住房供应短缺，但不像2008年那样严重过剩。在办公空间方面，我们的敞口相当小。是的，杰米也提到了你提到的再融资动态，这也是办公空间在一定程度上处理的方式之一。我们的办公敞口相当温和，集中在一些密集城市位置的A级建筑中，归还办公时间的叙事是其高入住率的主要推动力之一。因此，虽然在这方面也有具体的注意事项，但对我们而言，总体来说不是一个大问题。
And just as a follow-up, I think the other risk from higher for longer rates, I think is the ability of the economy, the financial markets to sustain a 5% plus Fed fund for a long period of time. Like, what are the other areas you're watching? If duration mismatch and bank balance sheet being one, CRE, market being one, are you worrying about non-banks that have grown exponentially over the last decade in terms of risks at the non-banks if rates don't get cut? And if you can talk to the transmission mechanism of that coming back and hitting banks, given the leverage that banks provide to the non-banks.
作为后续问题，我认为长期利率上升的另一个风险是经济和金融市场能否持续较高的联邦基金利率（5%以上）。您关注的其他领域是什么？如果持有资产的时间不匹配和银行资产负债表是一项，商业地产市场是另一项，您是否担心非银行机构在过去十年中呈指数级增长所带来的风险，如果利率不被削减会对银行产生影响？如果可以谈一下非银行机构对银行的杠杆作用的传导机制。
Yeah, so this is like the answer to, there is a risk of higher rates for longer and don't just think of just the Fed funds rate, because I think you should, you know, for our planning, I'd be thinking more about it could be sex and then think about the 5 and 10-year rate, it could be 5. And I think if those things happen, I'm not saying they're going to happen. I just think people should prepare for them. They saw what just happened when rates went up beyond people's expectations. You had the guilt problem in London, you had some of the banks here. People need to be prepared for the potential of higher rates for longer. If and when that happens, it will undress problems in the economy for those who were too exposed to floating rates or those who were too exposed to refi risk. Those exposures will be in multiple parts of the economy. So now that I say to all our clients, now would be the time to fix it. Do not put yourself in a position where that risk is excessive for your company, your business, your investment pools, etc. That's answer number one.
嗯，这就是回答长期存在高风险和不要只考虑美联储基金利率的答案，因为我认为你应该为我们的规划考虑更多可能性，比如五年和十年的利率可能会不同。我认为如果出现这种情况，我不是说一定会出现，但人们应该为此做好准备。当利率超出人们的预期时，他们已经看到发生了什么，伦敦的有罪支付问题和这里的某些银行都出现了问题。人们需要为可能长期存在较高利率的潜在风险做好准备。如果这种情况发生了，那么那些过多暴露于浮动利率的人或过多暴露于再融资风险的人就会遭受经济方面的问题。这些风险在经济的多个领域都会存在。因此，现在我告诉我们所有的客户，现在是解决这个问题的时候了。不要让公司、业务和投资池等风险过度暴露，以及后果将会是什么。这就是答案之一。
Number two is it will not come back to JP Morgan. Okay, while we do provide credit to what you call shadow banks, it is very, we think it's very, very secure. It does not mean it won't come back to other credit providers. So, very helpful. Thank you.
第二点是它不会回到摩根大通。好的，虽然我们向所谓的影子银行提供信贷，但我们认为它非常非常安全。但这并不意味着它不会回到其他信贷提供方。非常有帮助，谢谢。
The next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities. You may proceed.
下一位提问者是威尔斯·福戈证券的迈克·梅奥，请开始提问。
Hey, Jeremy, you mentioned a degree of reintermediation to the lending markets. You said capital markets activity has gone to bank lending. I'm just wondering, as part of your $7 billion increase in eye guide, are you assuming better loan spreads? And on the topic of loan pricing, why aren't your credit card yields going higher than where they are today? Thanks.
嗨，Jeremy，你提到了贷款市场再中介化的程度。你说资本市场的活动已经转向银行贷款。我只是想知道，在你们增加70亿美元的收益指南中，你是否认为贷款利差会更好？在贷款定价方面，为什么你们的信用卡收益率没有达到今天的水平？谢谢。
Yeah, Mike. So, I think, yeah, you're referring to my comments that I made in the commercial bank about the fact that the larger corporate segment within the commercial bank that would generally have access to capital markets, but also access to bank lending, at the margin is choosing to draw down revolvers right now rather than access the capital markets. That is not a particularly meaningful driver of the increase in an eye guidance. There's a lot of odds and ends in there, but the major drivers are the ones that I called out. And to be honest, I haven't actually specifically checked what's happening with card yields. I would imagine that they've gone up a little bit in line with rates, but I don't know. We should follow up.
嗯，Mike。我认为你指的是我在商业银行所发表的评论，即商业银行内的大型企业部门通常具有获得资本市场和贷款的渠道，但在现在这个时候，他们会选择动用备用信贷额度，而不是使用资本市场。然而，这并不是增加眼睛指导的主要原因。其中有许多细节，但比较重要的原因，我已经说了出来。老实说，我并没有专门查看信用卡收益率的情况。我想它们会随着利率的上涨而稍微上升一点，但我不确定。我们可以跟进一下。
All right. And then one for you, Jamie, I guess, taking the 10,000-foot level, I guess, when you look at asset liability management or ALM, you could call this Nightmare on Alm Street, and you've seen some big problems at banks. And I guess, how would you evaluate yourself? I guess with this $7 billion high, and eye guide, probably is good. To what degree are you willing to sacrifice JPM, Sherah Holder, money to help rescue problem banks that do not get their asset liability management correctly?
好的，接下来是你，杰米。我想你可以从更高层面上看待资产负债管理(ALM)。你可以称之为“ALM街上的噩梦”，因为银行遇到了很大的问题。我想问问你如何评估自己，因为你拥有70亿美元的资产。我们可能需要牺牲摩根大通、股东和利润来帮助那些没有正确管理资产负债的银行，你对此有多少意愿？
There's two really different questions. We've been quite cautious of interest rates for quite a while. How we invest our portfolio, what our expectations are, our stress testing. The stress test, the seat car stress test, as you know, had rates going down. I always looked at rates going up and being prepared. I wonder if the United States is going to happen. So we've been quite conservative ourselves, and we don't mind continuing to do that, because you know, I remind people that having excess capital, you're having lost its kind of earnings and store. You get to deploy it later, and maybe at a more opportune time when the time comes. And we're not, you know, we're in a, we'd like to help the system when it needs help if we can reasonably. And we're not the only ones. You saw a lot of banks do that. And you know, I was proud of them. I was proud of them. I think all of us did the right thing, whether, you know, ultimately it works out and not well, you know, you can check and guess that when it happens. But the fact is, you know, I think people want to help the system. And this whole banking theme is bad for banks. And you know, I knew that the second I saw the headline, you know, when you have credit suites, we want healthy community banks. We want healthy, the regional banks. We want to help them get through this. We have, you know, remember, Mike, as you pointed out, we have the best financial system world's ever seen. That does not mean it won't have problems. It doesn't mean there shouldn't be changes made. But I think it's reasonable for people to help each other in times of need. And we've got, we know, we all did that during COVID. All of us did that, where if you could, those you could did it during, you know, the great financial crisis. And I would expect, you know, people do that going forward.
这里有两个非常不同的问题。我们一直对利率持谨慎态度。我们如何投资我们的组合，我们的期望是什么，我们的压力测试。像你知道的那样，压力测试中的座位车压力测试是利率下降的。我一直看着利率上涨并做好准备。我想知道这是否会在美国发生。所以我们一直很保守，我们不介意继续这样做，因为你知道，我提醒人们拥有过剩的资本，你丢失了一些收益和储存。你可以在以后部署它，也许在更合适的时候。我们不是唯一的人。你看到很多银行都这样做了。我们想在需要帮助的时候帮助这个系统，如果我们可以合理地这样做。我们不是唯一的。你看到很多银行都这样做了。你知道，我为他们感到自豪。我为他们感到自豪。我认为我们所有人都做了正确的事情，不管最终结果好坏，你可以在发生时检查和猜测。但事实是，你知道，我认为人们想要帮助这个系统。这整个银行主题对银行很不好。你知道，当你看到信贷部门时，我们想要健康的社区银行。我们想要健康的地区银行。我们想帮助他们度过难关。你知道，我们记得，麦克，正如你指出的那样，我们有世界上最好的金融系统。这并不意味着它不会遇到问题。这并不意味着不应该做出改变。但我认为在需要时相互帮助是合理的。我们在COVID期间都那样做了。我们在大金融危机期间都那样做了。我希望人们今后也会这样做。
Hey Jamie, your CEO letter said the banking crisis isn't over. So what do you mean by that? Or was that dated two weeks later, like, talking contagion or what?
嗨，杰米，你们的CEO信中说银行业危机还没有结束。那你的意思是什么呢？或者这是两周后的日期，像谈论传染病一样吗？
So it's just the number of banks off sides you can count on your hands. In terms of like too much insured exposure, too much ATM, too much uninsured deposits. And so there may be additional bank deposits, I mean, bank failures, I'm like that, which we don't know. But you're going to see next week, regional banks are pretty good numbers. A lot of people are going to, you know, have to can take actions to, you know, remediate some of the issues they may have going forward. You've already seen things calm down quite a bit, particularly in deposit flows. More and Buff was on TV talking about that he would bet a million dollars under the stuff that no depositor will lose money in America. He's willing to bet his own money, of course, he knows it's a very bright man. So this crisis is not away. It will pass. And the one thing I pointed out is that when I answered the question just before about interest rates, people need to be prepared. They shouldn't pray that they don't go up. They should prepare for them going up. And if it doesn't happen, serendipity. All right. Thank you.
这是指你可以用手指头数出的犯规银行的数量，主要是因为保险覆盖过多、ATM过多、存款未投保等问题。可能还会出现其他银行倒闭的情况，我们无法预测。但是下周你会看到地区银行表现得非常好。很多人需要采取措施，解决他们未来可能遇到的问题。你已经看到情况已经平稳下来，特别是在存款流动方面。莫尔和巴夫（More and Buff）在电视上谈到，他打赌一百万美元，保证美国没有存款人会亏损。他愿意用自己的钱下注，他知道这是一个非常聪明的人。这场危机没有结束，但它会过去。我在回答关于利率的问题之前指出的一点是，人们需要有所准备。他们不应该祈祷利率不会上涨，而是应该为其上涨做好准备。如果没有上涨，那就是意外惊喜。好的，谢谢。
Yeah. The next question comes from the line of Betsy Graphic with Morning Stanley. You may proceed.
下一个问题来自Betsy Graphic，早间斯坦利的代表线。你可以继续提问。
意思是主持人宣布下一个问题进行提问，提问者是来自Morning Stanley的Betsy Graphic。
Hi, good morning.
大家早上好。
Hey, Betsy. I do want to unpack the question here on the possibility of higher for longer rates and how that impacts you in your non-market NION.
嘿，贝茨。我确实想在这里讨论更长时间利率可能会高的问题以及它如何影响你的非市场NION。
Betsy, then we just lose here. I feel like you just dropped. Not here, me? Hello?
"Betsy，那我们就输了。我感觉你刚才突然消失了。不是在这里吗？你好吗？"
这句话的意思是，如果Betsy不在这里的话，我们就无法胜利了。说话者感觉Betsy好像突然消失了，不知道她在哪里。最后打了招呼，问Betsy是否还好。
Yeah, you're back now. Okay. So I just wanted to unpack the higher for longer rate possibility as to how it impacts your NII because your NII guide is assuming the forward curve if I understand correctly. So in the event that you get that higher for longer, just how much does that impact the NIIX markets? Because I'm trying to translate here about maybe lose some deposits, but if we have higher for longer, shouldn't we expect the trajectory goes up from this quarter as opposed to down? Is that that's the question? Go ahead, Jeremy.
是的，你现在回来了。好的，我只是想解释一下“高息长久”的可能性对你的净利息收入的影响，因为我理解你的净利息收入指南是基于预期曲线的。那么，如果出现了“高息长久”，那么它对NIIX市场的影响会有多大呢？因为我想把这个话题翻译一下，可能会失去一些存款，但如果我们有了“高息长久”，难道我们不应该预期从这个季度开始，路径会上升而不是下降吗？这是问题吗？请讲，Jeremy。
Sure. So Betsy, your question is very good. And I would say that as the, like if you look at the evolution of our outlook last year, it was pretty clear that we were very as sensitive, certainly in terms of the sort of one year forward EAR type measure. You also obviously know that our current EAR actually shows us like negative numbers of a tiny bit liability sensitive and I won't get into all the nuances about why that may or may not be a great predictor in the short term. But the point is that the level of rates now is of course very different from what it was last year. And at this level of rates, the relationship between our short term and AI evolution and the curve is not always going to be clear in any given moment. It's quite tricky and it can behave in somewhat wonky ways as a function of again, or a little too a couple times on this call, the competitive environment for deposits, which is not in fact a sort of mathematically predictable thing as a function of the rate curve. So that's why we're emphasizing all the different drivers of uncertainty in the NIO. Look, yeah. So I already just had so next quarter we kind of know already. Two quarters out we know a little bit less, three quarters out we know a little bit less, and 24 we know very little. That number you can imagine this is a little inside baseball now, the number that we're talking about for 2024 is not based upon an implied curve. It's based upon our us looking at multiple potential scenarios leveling them kind of out and saying this is kind of a range. And you're absolutely correct. You could have an environment of higher for longer that might be better than that, but remember higher for longer comes with a lot of other things attached to it. You know like maybe a recession is deflation lower than five. So I wouldn't look at that as higher for longer as a positive. It might be a slight positive in that line. It probably would be negative in other lines. Yep, got it. Okay, that's super helpful to understand how you think through that. And then the follow up is just on the buybacks. So do I take your comments to mean that you're on pause now and if that's the case what would be the driver of restarting?
好的。Betsy，你的问题非常好。我想说，在我们去年的展望演变过程中，很明显我们非常敏感，特别是在前一年的预测EAR方面。你也明白我们当前的EAR显示我们具有一点点负债敏感性，我不会在短期内解释其优劣之处。但是，当前的利率水平当然非常不同于去年。而在这种利率水平下，我们短期和AI演变与利率预测曲线之间的关系在任何时候都不会总是清晰明了。这是相当棘手的，因为它会根据我们在这次通话中提到的存款竞争环境等多个因素表现出有些奇怪的行为，这并不是一个可以通过率曲线数学预测的因素。因此，这就是为什么我们强调了NIO中的多种不确定性因素。好的，所以我已经知道了下一季度的情况。我们对两个季度后的情况了解得稍微少一些，而对24个季度后的情况了解非常少。你可以想象一下，我们所说的2024年的数字不是基于暗含曲线得出的，而是基于我们看到的多个潜在的情况，将它们整合起来得出的范围。你绝对正确，你可能会看到更久的高利率环境，这可能是更好的，但是请记住，更长时间的高利率会带来其他很多问题。你知道，例如，可能会出现萧条、通货紧缩、低于5%，因此，我不会认为长期的高利率是一件正面的事情。它可能在某些方面稍微有些积极，但在其他方面可能是消极的。好的，明白了。了解你如何思考这个问题非常有帮助。其次是有关公司回购的问题。我想问的是，你的意思是你现在暂停了回购，如果是这样的话，重新开始的驱动因素是什么？
Yeah, no, we're not on pause now. We're doing a little bit now. We obviously have a lot of excess capital. We also like to buy our stock when it's cheap, not just when it's available. And we're also peering ahead. Look at those little bit of storm clouds. So we're going to be kind of cautious. So we're going to make this decision every day. We also don't like to tell the market we're doing just so you know.
是的，现在我们并没有暂停。我们正在进行一些工作。我们显然拥有大量的过剩资本。我们也喜欢在股票价格便宜的时候购买，而不仅仅是在可用时。而且我们也在预见未来。看看那些小的风暴云。因此，我们要保持谨慎。我们将每天做出这个决定。我们也不喜欢告诉市场我们正在做什么，就是这样。
Yeah. And then can you give us any sense of what basil for endgame means to you when your RWA is? How much do we be baking in for this?
能给我们一些关于 RWA 状况下，终局时的九层塔对你的重要性的感觉吗？我们需要为此做多少准备？
Yeah, but we really don't have any new information there, right? I mean, I think clearly if you go back like a year we were maybe a little bit more optimistic that it might be across all the different levers and all the different pieces of it closer to capital neutral. I think now it feels like it's likely to be worse than that. Hopefully it's not too much worse than that.
是的，但我们确实没有任何新信息，对吧？我的意思是，如果你回到一年前，可能我们对不同的杠杆和不同的要素达成资本中立会更加乐观一些。现在我觉得看起来可能会比那还要糟糕一点，但希望没有太糟糕。
And I would just remind you that there are a lot of different levers. So any when the NPR comes that's only going to be part of it. There's going to be other pieces, the holistic review. And it's going to take a lot of time to phase in and we're going to have time to adjust. So you know, we'll know when we know.
我想提醒你们，有很多不同的控制杆。因此，当全国公共广播电台发出时，那只是其中的一部分。还有其他部分，比如全面审查。这需要很长时间来逐步实施，而我们也需要时间来适应。所以你知道的，我们会在知道的时候知道。
And there were supposed to, I just remember, remind there were supposed to be pauses in there about how they looked at banks relative to the global economy, which are getting small and GCP was supposed to be adjusted for that. So you know, it made very we're expecting to go up, but there are a lot of reasons why it shouldn't go up. And JP Morgan, it's not it. There's so much capital.
我记得他们原本打算在讨论银行如何与全球经济相对应时停顿一下，因为这一比例正在变小，GCP也需要进行相应的调整。所以，尽管我们预计股市将上涨，但有很多理由说明它不应该上涨。而JP摩根并不是这样，因为它有大量的资本。
I mean, so you know, you can't look at Jayman's able to capital issue. And even the banks by the way, when you look at it, even if it's some of the banks are a trouble, I've plenty of capital. The issue wasn't capital. It was other things. And so, you know, I'm just hoping reggaers are very thoughtful. And the other thing is they should a priori decide what they want in the banking system at this point.
我的意思是，你知道，你不能仅仅看杰曼能否解决资本问题。即使是银行，在你看它们的时候，即使有些银行存在问题，我还有大量的资本。问题不在于资本，而在于其他事情。因此，我只是希望立法者们非常深思熟虑。另外，他们应该在先决条件中决定现阶段银行系统所需的东西。
Because you know, I've made it clear, you know, you I couldn't look at the banking system to say and say that no bank should keep alone if possible. That's how much capital is now being required for loans. The loans. Yeah, because the market is pricing, you know, it holds the market would take loans at much lower capital ratio than banks would be forced to hold for them.
因为你知道，我已经明确表明了，你知道，我无法看着银行系统说出并说道，如果可能的话，没有银行应该独自保持资本。这就是现在所需的贷款资本量。贷款。是的，因为市场定价，你知道，它认为市场将以比银行被迫持有的资本比率低得多的利率贷款。
I'm talking about just loans only, you know, and which so that's why you're seeing a lot of capital go to I mean, a lot of credit go to non banks. And dramatically, by the way, rapidly and dramatically. And so if you're a regular, if you look at that saying, do I want that, is that a good thing for the system? If you believe it's a good thing for the system, where is the capital and more credit will go out of the system? That's fine. If that's they want, that's fine. But they should do it with a fourth thought, not accidentally.
我只是谈论贷款，你知道的，这就是为什么你看到很多资本流向，也就是说，很多信用流向非银行机构。而且，这是显著的，而且是快速的。所以，如果你是一个普通人，看着这个，说：“我想要这个，这对系统来说是个好事吗？”如果你认为这对系统是有好处的，那么资本和信用会更多地流出系统。那很好，如果他们想要这样做，那很好。但他们应该有有目的地做，而不是意外地做。
I like the NII from loans better than the gain on sale. So I'll prefer the former not the latter, but thanks. Appreciate it. Thank you.
我喜欢通过贷款获得的NII超过销售获得的收益。因此，我更喜欢前者而非后者，但还是感谢你的建议。非常感谢。
The next question comes from the line of one shore with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open. Thank you. So you talked about in your letter about regulators avoiding the knee jerk reaction, which you addressed earlier. I'm curious on your thoughts around how customers have reacted and should react.
下一个问题来自一岸和Evercore ISI的线路。您现在可以发言了。谢谢。您在信中谈到了监管机构避免急躁反应的问题，这是您之前所提到的。我很想知道您对客户的反应以及应该如何反应的看法。
Now, and my point at my question is consumers can move excess cash balances if they want more insurance. They can do that in a lot of different ways. Move it, treasuries, money market, extra accounts, whatever. The issue, the question I have for you is on the corporate side. Have you seen big changes in how corporate treasures or CFOs are adapting their cash balances and working capital and should they need to?
现在，我提出的问题是消费者如果想获得更多的保险，他们可以移动多余的现金余额。他们可以通过很多不同的方式来实现，比如转移到国库券、货币市场、额外的账户等等。我的问题是关于企业方面。您是否看到企业财务主管或首席财务官在如何调整其现金余额和营运资本方面有着重大的变化，并且他们是否需要这样做？
I appreciate your warm buffer comments. Yeah, Glenn and Shore, we really haven't seen big changes to speak of. And I do think it's just worth saying. I think you're sort of hinting at this a little bit when you talk about the behavior of corporates that when we talk about responses to the reason events through the lens of uninsured deposits, that's obviously very different. If you're talking about large balances of non-operating uninsured deposits from financial institutions or defective financial institutions versus normal large corporate operating balances, which is of course like core banking business for all of us.
我很感激你的暖心缓冲评论。是的，Glenn和Shore，我们确实没有看到什么大的变化。而且我认为这值得一提。当我们通过没有保险的存款的视角来讨论对事件的反应时，你暗示了一些东西，这显然是不同的。如果你在谈论来自金融机构或有缺陷的金融机构的大量非营运非保险存款与正常的大型企业营运存款，这当然是我们所有人的核心银行业务。
Glenn, when you saw it in commercial banking payments, investment banking and custody, you did see money move, or I would call excess cash that moved out, but they have options. What I would call more like operational cash, I think even of small retail, small companies, middle market companies, etc. That tends to be fairly sticky because you have your loans there, you have your money there, you get more and more competitive and rates.
格伦，在商业银行支付、投资银行和保管方面，您会看到资金流动，或者我会称之为流出的过多现金，但他们有选择。而我所说的更像是运营现金，我认为即使是小型零售、小型企业、中型企业等，这往往是相当粘性的，因为你的贷款在那里，你的钱在那里，你得到了越来越有竞争力的利率。
That's why I think you see a lot of regional banks, they've got sticky middle market deposits. If I've lent you $30 million and you have $10 million, you're probably leaving it in my bank. And they also are more competitive on the rate for that.
这就是为什么我认为你会看到很多地方银行，因为它们有很多中型企业的存款。如果我借给你3000万美元，你有1000万美元，你很可能会把它留在我的银行里。而且他们在这方面的利率也更有竞争力。
So I think you shouldn't be looking at a deposit like one class, there's a whole bunch of different types and you know, analytics, you go through each one and try to figure out what the stickiness is and what the stickiness is and etc. But I think they've already, as the Fed has raised rates, you've already seen, that's the reason we expected outflows, both consumers and corporate customers.
我认为你不应该把存款看作是一个类别，因为它们有许多不同的类型，而且你需要通过分析来了解每种类型，以确定它们的吸引力，等等。但随着美联储加息，你已经看到了预期的资金外流，包括消费者和公司客户。
Interesting. Just follow up, the other thing that caught my on the letter is you mentioned that you're exploring new capital optimization strategies, including partnerships and securitizations, what different than what you've already been doing to the last 30 years. We've got our smartest people going to figure out every angle to reduce capital requirements for JP Morgan. That's the difference. And we've been doing it, but you know, there's securitizations, there are partnerships. You've seen a lot of the private equity do the life insurance companies and you know, I expect that we're going to come up with a whole bunch of different things over time. Any more sheds or natches too?
有趣。关于信中提到的探索新的资本优化策略，包括合作伙伴和证券化，这与过去30年您所做的有何不同？我们的最聪明的人正在思考每一个角度，为JP摩根减少资本要求。这就是不同之处。我们一直在这样做，但你知道，有证券化和合作伙伴关系。您已经看到很多私募股权公司与人寿保险公司的合作，我希望我们会随着时间的推移想出很多不同的方法。还有任何更多的补充或评论吗？
Thanks, Amy. Our final question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed.
谢谢，艾米。我们的最后一个问题来自德意志银行的马特•奥康纳。请继续。
这句话的意思是：谢谢艾米。我们最后一个提问来自德意志银行的马特·奥康纳，请他继续问问题。
Good morning. You guys talked about one of the drivers of the higher net interesting income guide this year is due to likely higher credit card balances. And I just wanted to get the flush out, you know, what change there on the outlook say versus three months ago. And I guess it's a good or bad thing that those balances will be higher than you thought.
早上好。您们谈到今年高净利润收入指南的驱动因素之一可能是信用卡余额较高。我只是想弄清楚，与三个月前相比，展望有什么变化。我猜那些余额比您预期更高，这是好事还是坏事呢？
Yeah, so this story there is kind of the same story we've been talking about for a while, it's just a matter of degree. So, you know, we had revolving balances, obviously drop a lot during the pandemic period and then we talked about having them recover an absolute dollar terms to the same level as we'd had pre-pandemic. I think happened last quarter. And then the remaining narrative is just the further normalization of the revolve per account because we also have seen some account growth and that continues to happen. And so, and yeah, we know we also took my question earlier we're seeing higher yield there as well. So and on your question of whether it's good or bad, you know, obviously there is a point at which the consumers have too much leverage. We don't see that yet. So normalization has a good thing for us.
这个故事跟我们一直谈论的故事差不多，只是程度不同而已。我们的循环余额在疫情期间明显减少，然后我们谈论过让它们恢复到疫情前的水平，我认为上个季度已经实现了。剩下的故事就是循环余额每个账户的进一步正常化，因为我们也看到了一些账户增长，这种情况还在继续。另外，我们还回答了早些时候你提出的问题，我们也看到了更高的收益率。至于你的问题是否好或坏，很明显，消费者负债过多会有问题。但我们目前还没有看到这种情况，所以正常化对我们而言是好事。
Okay, and then just separately the squeeze in. You guys took some security losses again this quarter and in the past you've talked about, you know, really just going security by security looking for kind of pricing opportunities. Is that kind of what drove it again this quarter or is there some kind of a lot of watching?
好的，然后就是单独压缩。你们本季度又遭受了一些安全损失，在过去，你们曾经谈论过寻找定价机会时需要逐个检查证券。这是本季度又是这个原因驱使了你们吗？或者有其他的原因？
And that'll be every quarter for us of our lives. So we find rich and we buy we think is dear.
这对我们的一生来说每个季度都是如此。因此，我们寻找富有并购买我们认为是昂贵的东西。
意思：这是一种打算保持富有和购买贵重物品的生活方式。每个季度都会有这样的行为。
Okay, all right, thank you.
好的，没问题，谢谢。
这句话是用来表示同意或者确认收到信息，并且表达感谢的。可以在口语中使用。
We have no further question.
我们没有进一步的问题。
Excellent. Okay, thank you very much.
太好了。好的，非常感谢你。
Back in group today's conference, thank you all for your participation.
今天的会议回到了我们的团队中，感谢大家的参与。
You may disconnect at this time.
现在您可以断开连接。意思是告诉某人可以结束连接或者离开。