Live: Tesla Q3 Earnings Call 2024 (TSLA)
发布时间 2024-10-23 23:21:49 来源
who welcome to Tesla's third quarter 2024 Q&A webcast. My name is Travis Vaxlerad, head investor relations, and I'm joined today by Ewan Musk, Bebop Tenetia, and a number of other executives. Our Q3 results were announced at about 3 p.m. Central Time, and the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast. During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings from the SEC. To end the question and answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please use the raise hand button to join the question queue. Before we jump into Q&A, Ewan has some open earmarks. Ewan? Thank you. So, to recap, someone is saying, something that would have been the history of saying you're over your declines in one of volumes in Q3, Tesla at the same time has achieved record deliveries. In fact, I think if you look at EV companies worldwide, to the best of my knowledge, no EV companies even profitable. And I'm not tied to the best of my knowledge. There was no EV division of any company, of any existing order company that is profitable. So it is notable that Tesla is profitable despite the very challenging one amount of environment. And this quarter actually is a record Q3 for us. So we produced our 7th-million vehicle actually just yesterday. So congratulations to the teams that made it happen in Tesla. That's the staggering the events amount of work to make 7 million cars.
欢迎来到特斯拉2024年第三季度问答网络直播。我是投资者关系主管Travis Vaxlerad，今天与我一起的还有Ewan Musk、Bebop Tenetia，以及其他几位高管。我们的第三季度业绩在中部时间下午3点左右公布，更新的报告也在与本次网络直播相同的链接上发布。在此次电话会议中，我们将讨论我们的业务前景并发表前瞻性声明。这些评论基于我们截至今天的预测和期望。由于多种风险和不确定性，实际事件或结果可能会大相径庭，包括我们最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中提到的风险。
为了进行今天的问答环节，请您将问题限制在一个问题及一个跟进问题以内。请使用“举手”按钮来加入问题队列。在我们进入问答环节之前，Ewan有一些开场发言。Ewan，请讲。
谢谢。我想总结一下，有人提到说你在第三季度的销量有所下降，但特斯拉在同一时间达到了创纪录的交付量。事实上，根据我了解的情况，如果你看看全球的电动车公司，好像没有哪家公司是盈利的。根据我了解的情况，没有任何现有汽车公司旗下的电动车部门是盈利的。因此，值得注意的是，尽管面临非常艰难的市场环境，特斯拉仍然盈利。而这个季度对我们来说实际上是一个创纪录的第三季度。就在昨天，我们生产了第700万辆汽车。因此，向实现这一目标的特斯拉团队表示祝贺。这是在生产700万辆汽车过程中付出了惊人的努力。
So, to see, we also have an interesting story for us is growing like wildfire with strong demand for both Meg and Powerwall. And as people know, on October 10th, we laid out a vision for an autonomous analytic future that I think is very compelling. So the Tesla team did a phenomenal job there with actually giving people an option to experience the future where humanoid robots walk among the crowd. Not with the canned video presentation or anything, but literally walking among the crowd, serving drinks and whatnot. And we had 50 autonomous vehicles. There were 20 cybercaps, but there were an additional 30 model-wise operating fully autonomously the entire night. Carrying thousands of people drink with no incidents. They tired not to. So, and those went there, it was emphasizing that the cybercap had no steering wheel or brake or accelerated pedals. Meaning there was no way for anyone to intervene manually even if they wanted to. And the whole night worked very smoothly.
我们可以看到，一个有趣的故事正在如野火般迅速蔓延，那就是对Meg和Powerwall的强劲需求。此外，如大家所知，我们在10月10日展示了一个关于自动化分析未来的愿景，我认为这个愿景非常吸引人。特斯拉团队在这里做得非常出色，给人们提供了一个体验未来的机会，在那里，人形机器人在人群中走动。这不是一个经过剪辑的视频展示，而是真实地在人群中穿梭，为大家提供饮品等服务。我们还有50辆自动驾驶车辆参加活动，其中有20辆是Cybercaps，另外还有30辆是完全自主运行的Model Y，它们整晚运送了数千名饮客，毫无事故。强调一下，Cybercap没有方向盘、刹车或加速踏板，也就是说，即便有人想手动干预，也没有地方可以操作。整个晚上活动进行得非常顺利。
So, with a cognitive vehicle business, we are still on track to deliver more affordable models starting in the first half of 2025. You know, this is, I think probably people are wondering, well, what should they assume for vehicle sales growth next year? And at the risk of taking a bit of risk here, I do want to give some rough estimate, which is, I think, 20 to 30% vehicle growth next year. You know, notwithstanding negative external events, like if there's some Porsche events, some big war breaks out or interest rates go sky high or something like that, then, you know, we can't overcome massive Porsche events. But I think with other cost vehicles, with the advent of autonomy, something like a 20 to 30% growth next year is my best guess. And then cybercap reaching volume production in 26. I do feel confident of cybercap reaching volume production in 26.
因此，在认知车辆业务方面，我们仍计划在2025年上半年推出更多经济实惠的车型。我想大家可能都在想，明年汽车销量的增长会是怎样的呢？冒着一些风险，我愿意给出一个粗略的估计，我认为明年汽车销量的增长会在20%到30%之间。当然，这还要看外部负面事件的影响，比如如果发生重大事件、大规模战争爆发或者利率大幅上升，那么我们将难以克服这些重大问题。但我认为凭借低成本车辆和自动驾驶技术的进步，销量在明年以20%到30%的速度增长是我最好的估计。此外，cybercap将在2026年实现大规模生产，对此我感到很有信心。
So, I'm just starting production, reaching volume production in 26. And that, you know, that should be substantial growth. I think we're aiming for at least 2 million units a year of cybercap. That'll be in more than one factory, but I think it's at least 2 million units a year, maybe 4 million ultimately. So, yeah, these are just my best guesses, but if you ask for more best guesses, that's those are my best guesses. The 46, the cell 4680 lines, the team is actually doing great work there. The 4680 is rapidly approaching the point where it is the most competitive cell. So, when you consider the fully landed, the cost of a battery pack fully landed in the US, net of incentives and duties, the 4680 is tracking to be the most competitive. Maybe lower cost per kilowatt hour fully considered than any other alternative, which is not quite there yet, but we're close to being there, which I think is extremely exciting. And we've got several, a lot of ideas to go well beyond that. So, if I think there's, if we execute well, the 4680, we'll have the Tesla internally produced cell will be the most cost competitive cell in South England, North America.
所以，我刚刚开始生产，到2026年可以实现大规模生产。那时候，应该会有显著的增长。我认为我们的目标是每年生产至少200万辆Cybercar。这将在不止一个工厂进行生产，但我认为至少是每年200万辆，最终可能达到400万辆。所以，这只是我的最佳猜测，但如果你问我更多的最佳猜测，这些就是我的最佳猜测。关于4680电池生产线，团队在这方面做得非常出色。4680电池正快速接近成为最具竞争力的电芯。当你考虑到在美国生产的电池包的整体成本后，扣除激励措施和关税，4680电池预计将是最具竞争力的。可能会比任何其他选择的成本每千瓦时都要低，虽然还没有完全达到这一点，但我们已经非常接近了，我认为这是非常令人兴奋的。而且我们还有很多可以超越这一点的想法。所以如果我们执行得好，4680电池将使特斯拉内部生产的电池成为英国南部、北美市场上最具成本竞争力的电芯。
The assessment to a tremendous amount of hard work there from the buy team. So, that's a rule. We'll continue to buy a lot of cells from our competitors, so that's not to make, to make cells just internally. So, I don't want to sit off any of the law bills here. We're also increasing substantially our vehicle output and our stationary storage output. So, we need a lot of cells. And most of them will still come from suppliers, but I think it is, it is some good news that the Tesla internal cell is likely, is trying to be the most competitive in the US. So, with respect to autonomy, as people are experiencing in the cars, really from week to week, there are significant improvements in the miles between interventions. So, with the new version, 12.5, the release of Full cell driving and cyber truck, the combining the code into a single stack, so that the city driving and the antenna highway driving are one stack, which is a big improvement for the highway driving. So, it's just all neural nets and the release of actually smart summon. We try to have a sense of humor here at death. And we're also, so that's 12.5 version 13 of FSD is going out soon.
评估团队付出了巨大的努力，这是一条规则。我们将继续从竞争对手那里购买大量电池，所以不仅仅是内部制造电池。我不想让法律方面的问题冒头。我们也在大幅提升车辆产量和固定储能产量，因此我们需要大量电池。其中大部分仍将来自供应商，但一个好消息是，特斯拉内部生产的电池可能会成为美国最具竞争力的电池。在自动驾驶方面，人们在汽车中体验到从每周到每周，自动驾驶干预之间的里程数都有显著提高。新的12.5版本推出了全自动驾驶和赛博卡车，将城市驾驶和高速公路驾驶的代码合并成一个单一的框架，这对高速公路驾驶来说是一个重大提升。这完全依靠神经网络，智能召唤功能也已发布。我们在研发中心试图保持幽默感。此外，12.5版本将很快更新到FSD 13版本。
We'll elaborate more on that later in the call. We expect to see roughly a 506 fault improvement in miles between interventions in batch 12.5. And actually looking at the years whole, the improvement in miles between interventions, we think will be at least three orders of magnitude. So, that's a very dramatic improvement in the course of the year. And we'll expect that in 20 to continue next year. So, the current internal expectation, emphasizing internal expectation for the Tesla FSD having longer miles between an eventually than human is the second quarter of next year, which means it may end up being the third quarter, but it's next. It seems extremely likely to be next year. Sure. Do you want to? Yeah, I'm mentioning miles between critical interventions. Like you mentioned, Elon, we already made a 100x improvement with 12.5 from starting of this year. And then with V13 release, we expect to be a 1000x from the beginning, from January of this year on my production release software.
我们稍后在电话会议中会详细讨论这个问题。我们预计在12.5批次的干预次数间行驶英里数将改进约506次。实际上，纵观全年，干预间行驶英里的改善，我们认为至少会有三个数量级的提升。因此，今年的改善是非常显著的，并且我们预计这一趋势将在明年继续。目前，内部的期望（强调是内部的期望）是特斯拉FSD系统在每次重大干预间行驶的英里数将在明年第二季度超过人类驾驶员，这意味着最迟可能在第三季度实现，但几乎可以确定会在明年实现。是的，你想谈谈吗？是的，我提到的是每次关键干预间的行驶英里数。正如埃隆提到的，我们已经在12.5版本从今年年初起实现了100倍的改善。随后，在发布V13版本时，我们预计从今年1月起在生产发布的软件上将实现1000倍的提升。
And this came in because technology improvements going to end to end, having higher frame rate, partly also held by Harvard Force, more capabilities, so on. And we hope that we continue to scale the neural network, the data, the training compute, et cetera. By Q2 next year, we should cross over the average human miles for critical intervention, probably collision in the case. I mean, that is just unbonished our internal estimate. Yes. So that's not a sandbagging or anything else. Our internal estimate is Q2 next year to be safe in the human, and then to continue with rapid improvements throughout the year. So, with to now a lot, the vast majority of humanity has no idea that it was designed themselves. So, especially for something like a model 3 or model line, it looks like a normal car. So, you don't expect a normal car to be able to be intelligent enough to drive itself. It's not a catalyst, it looks different. It looks different, but model line, model 3, they're good looking cars, but look at everything, both barely normal. You don't expect a barely normal looking car to have the intelligence and have AI to be able to drive itself, but it does.
由于技术的改进，从端到端的提升，以及更高的帧率，这一切都变得可能。部分原因是得益于哈佛大学的支持，提供了更多的能力等等。我们希望能够继续扩大神经网络、数据、训练计算等的规模。到明年第二季度，我们预计在关键干预的平均人类驾驶里程上会有突破，可能是指碰撞等情况。值得注意的是，这是我们的内部估算，不是为了保守估计或其他原因。我们的内部估算是，到明年第二季度，我们的系统在安全性上能够超过人类，然后在全年继续快速改进。
到目前为止，很多人类都没有意识到这一切是如何设计出来的。特别是对于像Model 3或Model系列这样的车型，看起来就像一辆普通的车。因此，人们通常不会期望一辆外观普通的车能拥有足够的智能来实现自动驾驶。它的设计不是为了显得与众不同，只是大体上看起来正常。但实际上，Model系列和Model 3既是漂亮的车，又在外观上看似平常，但它们确实具备自动驾驶的智能和人工智能能力。
So, we do want to expose that to more people. And so, we're doing everything we have, a significant improvement in the software. We'll roll it out another 30-day trial, so to encourage people to try it again. And we are seeing significant improvement in adoption. So, the take grade 4, FSD is improved substantially, especially after the 10-10 event.
因此，我们确实想让更多人了解这个产品。因此，我们正在全力以赴地改进软件。这次，我们会推出一个新的30天试用期，以便鼓励人们再来尝试一下。我们观察到使用率有了显著提升。尤其在10月10日的活动之后，FSD的4级性能有了很大改善。
So, there's no need to wait for Robert Taxi or Savicab to experience full autonomy. We expect to achieve that next year with our existing vehicle line. I want to actually spot someone to use a small day stuff, what it's going to look like, the car able to drive itself to the user within private parking routes currently is speed limited, but then it's going to quickly be increased. We already had more than a billion usage, not themselves, spots them in.
所以，不需要等到 Robert Taxi 或 Savicab 来体验完全自动驾驶。我们预计明年现有车系就能实现这个目标。我希望看到有人用这些车处理一些小日常事务，看看这会是什么样子，车子可以在现有的私人停车场路线内自行开到用户身边，目前这些路线的速度是有限制的，但很快会提高。我们已经有超过十亿次的使用记录。
And we actually, we have four Tesla employees in the Bay Area, we already are offering a right-handling capability. So, you can actually, with the development app, you can request a ride. And it will take you anywhere in the Bay Area. We do have a safety driver right now, but the software required to do that. We're developed. And David, do you want to elaborate on that? Yeah, sure. David, we showed some screenshots of this in the key one share of older deck.
我们在湾区实际上有四名特斯拉员工，我们已经提供了一项右侧驾驶服务。通过我们的开发应用，你可以请求搭乘，并且可以把你带到湾区的任何地方。目前我们的车上有一名安全驾驶员，但所需的软件已经开发完成。David，你要补充些什么吗？好的。当然。在我们第一季度的股东报告中，我们展示了一些这方面的截图。
And this is real. We've been testing it for the part of the year, and the building blocks that we needed in order to build this functionality and deliver it to production. We've been thinking about working on for years. It just so happens that we've used those building blocks to deliver great features for our customers in the meantime, such as sharing your profile, synchronizing across cars, so that every single car that you jump into, whether it's, you know, another car that you own, or a car that somebody's loaned to you, or a rental car that you jump into, it looks exactly like yours. Everything synchronized, seat mirror positions, you know, media, navigation, everything is the same, just what you would expect from one of our robo taxis.
这是真的。我们已经在今年的一部分时间里对其进行了测试，构建了我们所需的基础模块，以便开发这一功能并投入使用。多年来，我们一直在思考并着手进行这些模块的研发。与此同时，我们利用这些模块为客户提供了出色的功能，比如分享个人资料、在不同车辆间同步数据。无论您进入哪辆车，不管是您拥有的另一辆车、朋友借给您的车，还是租来的车，车内设置都会和您的车一模一样。所有内容都已同步，包括座椅和后视镜的位置、媒体、导航等，一切都和您期待的一样，就像我们的自动出租车一样。
But, you know, we gave that functionality to our customers right now, because we built it intending for it to be used in the future, releasing that functionality now. All the end-to-end cybersecurity that we knew we were going to need to deliver that functionality, sending a navigation destination from your phone to the vehicle. And so, you know, you're doing that now with the ride-hailing app, but it's something that we've made available to customers for years. Seeing the progress on a route in the mobile app, that's something you'll need for the ride-hailing app, but again, we released it in the meantime. So, it's not like we're just starting to think about this enough right now, while we're building out, you know, the early stages of our ride-hailing network.
但是，你知道，我们目前已经向客户提供了这个功能。我们在开发它时是为了将来使用，现在提前发布了这个功能。为了实现这个功能，我们提供了全面的端到端网络安全措施，比如从手机发送导航目的地到车辆。所以，现在你可以在叫车应用中使用这个功能，但其实我们已经向客户开放了好几年。在手机应用中查看路线进度，这也是你在叫车应用中需要的功能，但我们已经提前发布了。所以，不是说我们现在才开始考虑这些问题，因为我们已经在构建叫车网络的初期阶段了。
We've been thinking about this for quite a long time, and we're excited to get the function out there. Yeah, and we do expect to roll out ride-hailing in California, Texas, next year, to the public. Now, the California, somewhere, there's quite a long regulatory approval process, but I think we should get a approval next year, but it's continued on our regulatory approval. Texas is a lot faster, so it's, you know, I'd say like, we'll definitely have available in Texas and probably have it available in California, subject to regulatory approval. And then, and maybe some other states actually, next year or swap, but at least to be California, Texas. So, I think that'll be very exciting. This really a profound change.
我们已经考虑了很长一段时间，对于推出这个功能感到非常兴奋。是的，我们预计明年在加利福尼亚和德克萨斯向公众推出叫车服务。在加利福尼亚，审批过程可能会比较长，但我认为我们应该能在明年获得批准，尽管这取决于监管审批。德克萨斯的审批要快得多，所以可以肯定地说，我们会在德克萨斯提供服务，并且有可能在加利福尼亚提供服务，只要监管批准顺利。也可能会在明年或者后续的几年在其他一些州推出，但至少会是加利福尼亚和德克萨斯。我认为这将是一个非常令人振奋的变化。这将是一场深刻的变革。
Tesla becomes more than a sort of vehicle and, you know, battery-made battery company, at that point. So, we published a Q3 vehicle safety report, which shows one impact for every seven-lunch of miles of water pilot that conquests the U.S. average of water crash roughly every 700,000 miles. So, it's currently showing a 10x safety improvement relative to the U.S. average. And we continue to expand our AI training capacity to accommodate the needs of both FSD and Optimus. We're currently not training compute constrained. It's probably the biggest of many factors that the FSD is actually getting.
特斯拉不仅仅是一家制造汽车和电池的公司。我们发布了一份第三季度车辆安全报告，报告显示每行驶七百万英里，水上驾驶辅助系统发生一次碰撞，而美国的平均水平大约是每行驶70万英里发生一次碰撞。这意味着我们的系统相对美国平均水平提升了10倍的安全性。同时，我们不断扩展我们的人工智能训练能力，以满足全自动驾驶（FSD）和Optimus的需求。目前，我们在计算训练方面并没有受到限制。这可能是全自动驾驶系统不断取得进展的众多因素之一。
So, good that it takes us a while to actually find mistakes. When you start getting to where it can take 10,000 miles to find a mistake, it takes a while to actually figure out which it is this. It's a softwareable, better than, it's softwareable A, better than softwareable B. It actually takes a while to figure it out because neither one of them make any mistakes. But what takes a long time to make mistakes. So, that's actually a single little bit big, so many factors. How long does it take us to figure out which version is better? A sort of high class problem. Obviously, having a giant fleet is very helpful for breaking this out.
所以，很好的是，我们要花一点时间才能真正找到错误。当你开始需要行驶10,000英里才能找到一个错误时，实际上需要一段时间才能弄清楚问题到底出在哪里。这是可以通过软件解决的问题，软件A比软件B更好。实际上需要一些时间才能弄清楚，因为这两个软件都没有犯错，而是需要很长时间才能发现失误。因此，这实际上是一个小小但重大的挑战，涉及许多因素。我们需要多长时间才能判断出哪个版本更好？这是一种"高端"问题。显然，拥有庞大的车队对解决这个问题非常有帮助。
And then with Optimus, we showed a massive improvement in Optimus' dexterity movement on October 10th. And our next gen, Hannah Boam, which has 22 degrees of freedom, double, which doubled the prior. And Boam, it's extremely human-like and it's so much better, attacked, out sensing. It's really, I feel confident in saying that we have most advanced human-wide robot by Longshot. And we're more ever the only company that really has all of the ingredients necessary to scale human-wide robots. Because the things that, what are the companies missing? Is that they're missing the AI brain, and they're missing the ability to really scale to very high volume production. So, I've seen some impressive video down there, but they like the localized AI and the ability to scale volume to very high numbers.
然后在10月10日展示的Optimus，我们展示了Optimus在灵活运动方面的大幅提升。我们的下一代机器人Hannah Boam具有22个自由度，是之前的两倍。而Boam非常像人类，并且在感知能力上有明显进步。我可以自信地说，我们拥有远超其他的最先进类人机器人。我们甚至是唯一一个真正具备所有要素来大规模生产类人机器人的公司。其他公司缺乏的是AI智慧大脑和大规模高产量生产的能力。我见过一些很不错的视频，但他们缺少本地AI和大规模生产能力。
As I've said on a few occasions before, I think Optimus will ultimately be most valuable part of it. And I think it has a good chance of being the most valuable product I've made. For the energy business, that's very extremely well. And as the shared head is gigantic, the laid-through megapack factory reached 200 megapacks a week, which is now a 40 gigawatt hour a year run rate. And we have a second factory in Shanghai that will begin with the 20 gigawatt hour a year run rate in Q1 next year, so just take the next quarter. And that'll also scale up. It won't be long before we're shipping 100 gigawatt hours a year, stationary storage at Tesla. And that'll ultimately grow, I think, to multiple terawatt hours per year. It has to, actually, in order to have a sustainable energy future, if you're not the terawatt scale, you're not really moving the needle.
正如我之前多次提到的，我认为Optimus最终将成为其中最有价值的部分。我认为它有很大机会成为我创造的最有价值的产品。在能源业务方面，目前表现非常好。随着需求的增加，我们的Megapack工厂现在每周可以生产200个，这意味着每年的生产量达到了40吉瓦时。我们在上海的第二座工厂将在明年第一季度开始，年产量为20吉瓦时，并将继续提升产能。不久之后，我们将在特斯拉每年出货100吉瓦时的固定储能设备。我认为最终年产量会增长到多太瓦时的规模。实际上，为了实现可持续的能源未来，我们必须达到太瓦时规模，否则无法真正产生影响。
So if you look at our mentally very complicated last master plan, which I think actually is too much detail, I'll let me last go out to analyze it. Shortening up, yeah, give us the TLDR on the last master plan. But we showed in that master plan that it is possible to take all of us to a fully sustainable energy situation using sustainable energy power generation and batteries and electric transport. And there are no fundamental material limitations. Like there's not some very rare material that we don't have enough of, we actually have enough of raw materials to take all of human civilization, make it fully sustainable. And even if civilization dramatically increased its electricity usage, it would still be fully sustainable.
如果你回顾我们之前的总体规划，它非常复杂，细节过多，我觉得这有些过头。让我简要总结一下。我们在这个计划中展示了，通过使用可再生能源发电、储能电池和电动交通工具，可以将人类社会完全转向可持续的能源状态。而且在材料上没有根本性的限制。就是说，并不存在稀缺到无法获取的材料，我们实际上有足够的原材料来实现整个人类文明的可持续化。即使文明的电力使用量大幅增加，也仍然可以做到完全可持续。
You know, one way to think of the progress of a civilization, it's based on a little esoteric, but is percentage completion of car to ship scale? So car to ship scale, one would be you're using all the power of a lot of planet. We were currently less than 1% on car to ship level level one. Level two would be using all the power of the sun and level three, all the power of the galaxy. So we got a long way to go. When you think of car to ship terms, it becomes obvious that by far the biggest source of energy is the sun. Everything else is in the noise. So in conclusion, Tesla is focused on building the future of energy transport, robotics, and ANI. And this is a time when others are just focused on managing around near-term trends. We think what we're doing is the right approach.
你知道，有一种观点可以用来思考文明的进步，虽然有点深奥，那就是以"汽车到飞船"的尺度来衡量进度。所谓"汽车到飞船"的尺度，一级是指利用整个行星的所有能量。目前，我们在这个层级的完成度还不到1%。二级则是利用太阳的所有能量，三级是利用整个银河系的能量。因此，我们还有很长的路要走。用"汽车到飞船"的思维方式来考虑问题时，很明显，太阳是最大能量来源，其他的都是微不足道的噪音。总结来说，特斯拉专注于构建未来的能源运输、机器人和人工智能，而这时其他人只是专注于应对近期趋势。我们认为我们正在做的事情是正确的方向。
And if we execute on our objectives, and I think we will, my prediction is Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world. And probably by long, by long shot. I want to thank the Tesla team for this game for strong execution in a tough operating environment. And we're looking forward to building an incredibly exciting future. Thank you. Great. Thank you very much, Elon. And I've got that fast enough bigger marks as well. Thank you. Thanks. Our Q3 results were all positive. And once again, demonstrate the scale to which businesses evolved for the years with the generation of record operating cash flows of 6.3 billion. The automotive revenues grew both quarter-on-a-half and year-on-year. While we had unit volume growth, we did experience reduction in ASPs, primarily due to the impact of financing incentives.
如果我们能实现我们的目标，我认为我们会的，我预计特斯拉将成为全球最有价值的公司，而且可能会遥遥领先。我想感谢特斯拉团队在艰难的运营环境中展现的强劲执行力。我们期待着创造一个令人兴奋的未来。谢谢。非常感谢你，Elon。我也得到了那些更大的标志。谢谢。我们的第三季度业绩都是正面的，再次证明了随着业务不断发展，我们创造了63亿美元的创纪录运营现金流。汽车收入无论是在季度基础还是年度基础上都有增长。虽然我们的出货量有所增加，但由于融资激励措施的影响，我们的平均销售价格有所下降。
As a reminder, we are providing these incentives primarily using third-party banks and financial institutions and recognize the cost of these incentives as a different reduction to them. We released FSD for Cybertruck and other features like actually small someone like Elon talked about in North America, which contributed $326 million of revenues in the market. We continue to see elevated levels of regulatory credit sales with over 2 billion of revenues so far this year. To expand on this at an industry level, China continues to outperform US and Europe by a factor of 3. And if there is something to be learned from that, this gives us a signal of what is to come in other regions as customers acceptance of EV goals. And we feel that is the right strategy to build affordable and more compelling gains. Our focus remains on growing unit volume while awarding a build-up of inventory.
提醒一下，我们主要通过第三方银行和金融机构提供这些激励措施，并将这些激励的成本作为对其的不同减少。我们在北美发布了用于Cybertruck和其他功能的完全自动驾驶，其中一些功能像小型的，与Elon提到的功能类似，为市场贡献了3.26亿美元的收入。今年以来，我们的监管信贷销售额持续高企，总收入超过20亿美元。从行业层面来看，中国的表现继续超越美国和欧洲三倍。如果从中有什么值得学习的话，那就是这给我们一个信号，表明其他地区在客户接受电动车目标上会有怎样的发展。我们认为，制定打造经济实惠且更具吸引力的产品的策略是正确的。我们的重点仍然是增加单位销量，同时避免库存积压。
To support this strategy, we are continuing to offer extremely compelling vehicle financing options in every market. When you compare any vehicle in a lineup with other OEMs, believe our vehicles provide much better value, particularly when you consider the safety features, performance and unbalanced software functionalities like David also talked about. Include also what Ashoka talked about around autonomy, music options, parental controls and much more. While every vehicle in our lineup comes up with these capabilities, there is an awareness gap, not just with buyers, but at times even with existing owners. We plan on making these more visible in our interactions with both existing and future customers. Automotive margins improve quarter-to-quarter as a result of a 50-feature release discussed before. Increase in our overall production and delivery volume, helping it benefit from commodity pricing and more localized deliveries in region, which resulted in lower price and duties.
为了支持这一战略，我们在每个市场继续提供非常吸引人的汽车融资选项。当你将我们的任何一款车型与其他原始设备制造商（OEMs）的车型进行比较时，会发现我们的车辆提供了更高的价值，尤其是在考虑安全功能、性能以及David提到的不对称软件功能的时候。同时，还包括Ashoka谈到的自动驾驶、音乐选项、家长控制等更多功能。虽然我们车型列表中的每一款车都具备这些功能，但无论是对购车者，还是现有车主，有关这些功能的知晓度都存在不足。我们计划在与现有和未来客户的互动中，让这些特性更加显眼。由于之前讨论过的包括50个新功能发布，我们的汽车利润在每个季度都有所提高。整体生产和交付量的增加，让我们在商品定价和更加本地化的交付中获益，从而降低了价格和关税。
Sustaining these margins in K4 prior will be challenging given the current economic end-of-the-art. We are focused on the cost per vehicle and there are numerous more extremes within the company to squeeze that cost without compromising customer experience. Something that's a helpful, hopefully helpful macro trend is if there's a decline in Indian interest rates that has massive effect on automotive demand. The vast majority of people, the demand is driven by the monthly payment. Can they put the monthly payment? So, make most life the most who continue to decline interest rates, which helps with affordability vehicles. That is one trend which we observed in the industry that because of the affordability being impacted because of interest rates, people are holding one to the cars longer, especially in the US. That is actually having an impact on the overall industry too.
要在第四季度维持这些利润率将是具有挑战性的，因为当前的经济状况非常严峻。我们专注于每辆车的成本，并在公司内部采取各种措施来降低成本，同时不影响客户体验。一个希望有帮助的宏观趋势是，如果印度利率下降，将对汽车需求产生巨大影响。大多数人的需求是由每月付款驱动的，他们需要能够支付每月付款。因此，如果利率持续下降，将有助于提高汽车的负担能力。这是我们在行业中观察到的一种趋势，由于利率影响负担能力，人们尤其是在美国，持有汽车的时间更长，这实际上也对整个行业产生了影响。
As we discussed in back-orders, energy deployments fluctuate quarter-to-quarter due to customer readiness, location of orders being fulfilled and not necessarily an indicator of demand or production within the quarter. While we did see a decline in Q3, we expect to grow deployments sequentially in K4 to end the year, but more than double the last year. Energy margins in Q3, quarter record at more than 30 percent. This is a function of mix of projects being deployed in the quarter. Note that there will be fluctuation in margins as we manage through deployments and are in return. Our pipeline and backlog continue to grow quarter-to-quarter as we fill our 2025 production slots and we're doing our little best to keep the demand.
正如我们在讨论积压订单时提到的，能源部署会由于客户准备情况、订单交付地点等因素在季度间波动，这并不一定代表当季的需求或生产水平。虽然我们在第三季度确实看到了一些下降，但预计将在第四季度逐步增加部署，以实现年度目标，并且比去年增加了一倍多。第三季度的能源利润率创下季度记录，超过30%。这主要取决于当季部署项目的组合。请注意，我们在处理部署过程中会有利润率波动，并且会做出调整。我们的项目储备和积压订单继续每季度增长，我们正在努力填补2025年的生产空档，并尽力满足需求。
Just coming back on automotive margins, I talked about what is happening. One other thing which I want to also share is that we will continue to keep whatever we can, like I said before about squeezing off the cost, but this is something which we also are very capable of. Just in Q3, we will increase our lowest cost per cycle and that is the trend which we want to focus on. Then going on to service another, we continue to show improvements in Q3. This was the result of better performance both in our service business which includes collision, part sales and merchandise and continuity and supercharging. His feedback service will continue to grow as the overall feed size increases. Our operating expenses decline quarter-to-quarter and an year-on-year basis. This is partially due to the restructuring we undertook in Q2.
关于汽车利润率的问题，我之前已经谈到了正在发生的事情。我还想分享的是，我们将继续尽力去降低成本，就像我之前说的那样，这是我们非常擅长的一件事。仅在第三季度中，我们将提高每个周期的最低成本，这是我们想要关注的趋势。接下来是关于服务的部分，我们在第三季度继续表现出改善。这得益于我们服务业务的更好表现，其中包括碰撞维修、零件销售、商品销售以及充电服务。随着整体用户规模的扩大，我们的反馈服务将继续增长。我们的运营费用在季度和年度的基础上都有所下降，这部分是由于我们在第二季度进行的重组。
Cost-saving from these initiatives were partially offset by increase in cost related to our air efforts. We've started using the GPU cluster based out of our factory house in the header schedule. Another track to get 50K GPUs deployed in Texas by the end of this month. One thing which I'd like to elaborate is that we're being very judicious on our air compute spend too and saying how best we can utilize the existing infrastructure before making further investments. On the CAPEX fund, we had over three and a half billion in the quarter. This was a sequential increase largely because of investments in the air compute. We not expect the CAPEX for the year to be in excess of 11 billion. We shared our vision for the future at the VU robot event at the beginning of the month. The Tesla team is hyper focused on delivering on that version. The all efforts are underway to make it a reality. While we have achieved significant progress this year, it will take time to get this as we find new and incredibly complex technologies and navigate a fragmented regulatory landscape. Future is incredibly bright and I want to thank the Tesla team once again for all the help. Great. Thank you very much, Phoeba. Now we'll go to you investor questions.
这些计划带来的成本节省部分被我们在空中运作相关的费用增加所抵消。我们已经开始在工厂使用GPU集群，并计划在本月底在德克萨斯部署5万台GPU。需要详细说明的是，我们在空中计算方面的支出也非常谨慎，在进行进一步投资前，我们正尽可能充分利用现有基础设施。就资本支出基金而言，本季度我们有超过35亿的投入，这主要是因为在空中计算方面的投资。预计今年的资本支出将超过110亿。我们在月初的VU机器人活动中分享了我们的未来愿景，特斯拉团队正全力以赴实现这一目标。虽然今年已经取得了显著进展，但由于我们需要开拓新技术并应对复杂的监管环境，实现这一目标仍需时间。前景非常光明，再次感谢特斯拉团队的努力。好的，非常感谢Phoeba。现在我们来回答投资者的问题。
The first one is, is Tesla still on track to deliver the more affordable model next year, as mentioned by Elon earlier? And how does it align with your AI product right now? Sure. I mean, as Elon and my both said, you are in plan. To meet that in the first half of next year, our vision has always been to lower the cost of the vehicles to increase the option of sustainable energy and transport. Part of that is lowering the cost for current vehicles, which is where all of the personally owned vehicles that we sell today come in. But the next stage in that really fits into AI roadmap is when we bring in road taxis, which lowers the initial cost of getting into an EV. And that's really where we see the marriage of EV roadmap in the AI. I'll be with with incentive sub 30k. Which is kind of a key threshold.
第一个问题是，特斯拉是否仍然计划在明年推出更实惠的车型，就像Elon早些时候提到的那样？这与您目前的人工智能产品如何协同？当然。就像Elon和我都说过的，我们计划在明年上半年实现这一目标。我们的愿景一直是降低车辆的成本，以增加可持续能源和交通的选择。部分努力是降低现有车型的成本，这也包括我们目前销售的所有私人拥有车辆。但下一阶段真正符合人工智能路线图的是推出路面出租车，这将降低进入电动车的初始成本。这正是我们看到的电动车发展与人工智能相结合的地方。我们将提供低于3万美元的激励方案，这是一种关键门槛。
Great. Thank you very much. Similar question next, when can we expect Tesla to give us the $25,000 on regular car model? We're not making it on. All our vehicles today are road. I think we've made very clear that the future is autonomous. I mean, it's going to be, and that's actually said this many years ago, but that my strong belief in I believe that is planning out to be true. And I'm very obvious retrospect is that the future is autonomous electric vehicles. And non autonomous gasoline vehicles in the future will be like riding a horse using a flip bone. It's not that there are no horses.
好的，非常感谢。接下来是一个类似的问题，我们什么时候可以期待特斯拉推出售价2.5万美元的常规车型呢？我们目前没有在做这样的车。我们今天所有的车辆都是在路上的。我认为我们已经非常明确地指出，未来是属于自动驾驶的。我是说，这将会发生，而且我多年前就曾说过这一点，我坚信这是真的。而且从现在回头看，显而易见的是，未来属于自动驾驶电动车。未来的非自动驾驶汽油车将像骑马或使用翻盖手机那样，这并不是说马不存在。
Yeah, there are some horses, but they're unusual, they're niche. And so it's just everything's going to be electric autonomous. I think this is blind, like it should be frankly, blindingly obvious at this point, that is the future. So a lot of automotive companies, most automotive companies have not internalised this, which is surprising. Because we've been shitting the shadings from the rooftop for such a long time, and it will accrue to their determines in the future. But all of our vehicles in the future, we're trying to get into that. Yes, all vehicles that we've really made, obviously, have a million vehicles, the vast majority are capable of autonomy. And we're currently making on the order of 35,000 autonomous vehicles a week. If you're a pilot, say, we're most entirely fleet, it's less than 1,000 cars. We're making 5K a week. Yeah, not cars are looking normal. Yeah, they're mostly normal. Cyber truck looks, thankfully, looks abnormal. And then the cyber cab, the cyber car taxi, we wanted to have something futuristic looking. I think it does look futuristic. It's worth noting with respect to the cyber cab, it's not especially not just a revolutionary vehicle design, but a revolution in vehicle manufacturing.
是的，有一些马（表示传统车辆），但它们很不寻常，它们是小众的。所以未来的一切都将是电动自动驾驶的。我觉得这点现在应该非常明显了，毕竟这就是未来。然而，大多数汽车公司还没有意识到这一点，这让人感到惊讶。因为我们已经在屋顶上大声疾呼这件事情很久了，如果他们继续忽视，将来会对他们不利。但我们的所有未来车辆都在努力朝着这个方向发展。是的，我们现在制造的绝大部分车辆实际上都具备自动驾驶的能力，而且我们目前每周制造大约35,000辆自动驾驶车辆。如果你问我们，目前绝大多数车队规模都不到1,000辆。但我们每周生产5,000辆，是的，并不是所有的车都看起来正常。大多数汽车看起来还是正常的，而Cybertruck（电动皮卡）看起来与众不同，这点值得庆幸。至于我们想要推出的未来派设计的Cyber出租车，我们认为它确实看起来很有未来感。值得注意的是，在Cyber出租车方面，这不仅仅是车辆设计上的革命，更是车辆制造上的突破。
That is also coming with the cyber cab. The cycle time, the units per hour of the cyber cab line, this is really something special. I mean, this is if you have order of magnitude, then other car manufacturing lines like, not getting the same leak, is what I'm saying. Not in the same leak. So it's, you know, I said, I'm going to start with yours, though, that the, maybe the most honest Tesla car to car view in the factory. And just like bi-effectory. And can't reverse this mirror factory. It's up to my. Yeah, it's like, you know, it's, yeah. And as we were rapidly evolving, I mean, factory technology. So anyway, basically, I think having a regular 25K models pointless. Yeah, it would be silly. Like, it would be completely at odds with what we believe. In autonomous world, what matters is the lowest cost per mile of efficiency of that vehicle. And that's what we've done with the rope texting. Exactly. The autonomous, it's fully considered cost per mile is what matters. And if you try to make a car that is, you know, essentially a hybrid manual, or a manufacturer, it's not going to be as good as a dedicated autonomous car. So yeah, Sarecab is just not going to have steering wheels and pedals. Well, you design optimized for autonomy. Now, it'll cost on order of cost roughly 25K. So it is a 25K car. And you can, you will be able to buy one, one, it exclusively if you want. So just one half steering wheel. It's good or needed.
这也是和网络出租车一起推出的。网络出租车生产线的周期时间和每小时产量真的是非常特别。我的意思是，与其他汽车生产线相比，它有数量级的优势，不在同一个层级。不在同一个层级。所以，你知道，我想说可能这是特斯拉工厂中最诚实的车对车的对比，就像一个副产品。而且这种工厂模式是无法逆转的。这是我的观点。是的，就像是，我们的工厂技术正在迅速发展。总之，我认为生产常规的25K车型是没有意义的。那会很荒谬，完全不符合我们的理念。在自动驾驶世界中，重要的是每英里最低成本的效率，而这正是我们通过自动驾驶技术实现的。自动驾驶汽车最重要的是每英里的综合成本。如果你试图制造一辆本质上是手动和自动混合的汽车，那它就不如专门设计的自动驾驶汽车好。所以，是的，网络出租车不会有方向盘和踏板，因为它是为自动驾驶优化设计的。虽然它的成本大约是25K左右。所以，它是一款25K的汽车。如果你愿意，可以独自购买一辆，只是没有方向盘，因为不需要。
Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, what is Tesla doing to alleviate long wait times at service centers? So we aim on solving problems at the source. So at the factory, before they can even affect our customers, we believe the best service is no service. Yeah, really don't even have that. If the car doesn't break. Yeah, exactly. That's the best thing. Don't see any with the Tesla shirt, but you either do it. Yeah. Fix the issue upstream, or you would remotely do it through software. They could be at work or at home, and you know, car to be parked. And we address the fix the issue. And we've partnered the field with service to make sure we're looking at the same issues. And additionally, just in Q3 and Q4 this year long, we have opened and will open in total at nearly 70 locations. And in North America, we significantly expand the size of each location and have doubled the size last year compared to this year.
好的，非常感谢。下一个问题是，特斯拉正在采取什么措施来减少服务中心的长时间等待？我们致力于从源头上解决问题，也就是在工厂阶段解决，这样问题就不会影响到客户。我们相信，最好的服务是不需要服务，也就是说，如果汽车不出问题，那是最理想的。是的，这就是最好的情况。如果没有看到穿特斯拉T恤的人，但你要么就在工厂解决，要么通过远程软件解决。他们可能在上班或在家，而汽车是停着的，我们会处理并解决问题。同时，我们与现场服务团队合作，确保我们关注的是同样的问题。此外，仅在今年的第三和第四季度，我们已经在全球开设了近70个新的服务地点，并计划继续开设。在北美，我们显著扩展了每个服务地点的规模，去年与今年相比，规模增加了一倍。
Yeah, I think it was like actually a lot of parents that having large service centers, because you can have specialization of labor. You can start to approach. Yeah, should be more factory-like. You know, we can have dedicated lanes for particular types of service. And it's way easier for somebody to become expert in a few different types of repairs than in every repair. Exactly. This has helped us with the basis of these heavy repairs, like clogging up the lane. They've dedicated lanes for different types of repairs. And so it's the repair matters.
是的，我觉得这就像是很多家长使用大型服务中心的原因，因为这样可以实现劳动的专业化。你可以开始采用工厂化的方式。我们可以为特定类型的服务设立专门的通道。让某人专注于某几种维修比掌握所有类型的维修要容易得多。确实如此，这帮助我们处理了那些复杂的维修问题，例如通道被堵塞。他们为不同类型的维修设立了专门的通道，所以维修问题变得更加重要。
I'm really treating it like a factory. Yeah. This is where Tesla's structure, I think. Tesla has a strong advantage relative to the rest of the order industry, because we make cars and we service the cars. Whereas, I think there's a bit of a conflict of interest with the dealer model and the traditional OEM dealer model, where the dealerships make most of their money on service. And so they're just incented to reduce the servicing cost. Whereas in our case, we are incented to reduce the servicing cost, because we carry that servicing cost. And we've got a good feedback with our cars.
我真的把它当作一个工厂来对待。是的。我认为这就是特斯拉的结构。特斯拉相对于其他汽车行业有很强的优势，因为我们既生产汽车又提供汽车服务。而在传统的OEM经销商模式下，我认为存在利益冲突，因为经销商大部分利润来自维修服务。所以他们有动机去降低维修成本。而在我们的情况下，我们有动机去降低维修成本，因为我们自己承担这些成本。并且我们与自己的汽车保持良好的反馈机制。
Exactly. Yeah. I think we would be with the factory, with the service leaders together, and send people from the factories that feel the field to the factory to see it firsthand. Exactly. I'd buy suggestions for manufacturing as well as for engineering on design. Yeah. So I feel this has a fundamental structural advantage. Tesla versus the rest of the order industry. I was doing a bunch of work on the software side, not only to automate diagnostics, so identifying what needs to be done to a car, Ford comes in service, but also automating all the preparation work and aligning all the resources that are necessary in order for the car to be very efficiently worked on once it arrives. So the parts are there, like the lift is scheduled, the technician schedule, like everything that we like to do. Like a car, you know, do us this watch wrong with me and tell us to fill the service editor. The car is everything ready and it means.
好的。我认为，我们会与工厂和服务负责人一起合作，并派遣来自工厂的人去现场亲身体验。没错。我会为制造和工程设计提供建议。我觉得这在结构上有根本的优势，特斯拉与其他汽车行业相比。我们在软件方面做了很多工作，不仅是在自动化诊断上，也是在自动化所有准备工作和协调所有必要资源上，以确保汽车一到达就能高效维修。比如，零件已经准备好，升降机和技术人员的时间表都已安排妥当，就像我们希望的那样。就像汽车能告诉我们有什么问题，然后我们就准备好所有服务所需的东西。
Please fix me and this is what's wrong. Yeah. Is that a customer trying to translate the cars, telling us directly and we're pulling that. Yeah. Yeah. Any most time you don't need to diagnose the car when it arrives, the car. Yeah. This is like, again, the fundamental technology advantage and structural advantage compared to the rest of the order industry. It's. I think it's under-appreciated as to what all we are able to do. And that's why, because like I said before, most of our cars, except for Cybertruck, look the same. So people don't realize that it has so much capability. Yeah. Yeah. They're like, they look better than other cars. Yeah. But they're like, obviously, like super futuristic. Yeah. Yeah. Great. Thank you very much.
请帮我修复这个问题，这是问题所在。是的。这是不是一个客户试图翻译这些汽车，并直接告诉我们我们在处理这些信息。是的。大多数时候你不需要在汽车到达时对汽车进行诊断。这就是我们与其他汽车行业相比的根本技术优势和结构优势。我认为我们所能做到的事情并没有得到足够的重视。这就是为什么，正如我之前所说，我们的大多数汽车除了赛博卡车，看起来都一样，所以人们没有意识到它们有那么多的能力。是的。是的。它们看起来比其他汽车更好。是的。但是它们显然非常具有未来感。好的，非常感谢。
The next question is, please provide an update on the semi. What will the next stage of growth look like and when will FSD be ready? Sure. So as we posted in the earnings, we're progressing something on the build of the semi factory in our data factory in Reno. We've released all our major cap-boat expenditures for that program. And we're on track to start pilot builds in the second half of next year with production starting the first half of 20, 26 in rampant, really throughout the year to full production. Semi growth will largely depend on our customers adoption of the product. Well, I don't think we're going to be divided limited on the same. Yeah. Which I would say, which is like a brand for the semi. Because it's really a commodity of total cost of ownership. Yes, exactly. It's good. We have a kind of ridiculous demand for the semi.
下一个问题是，请提供关于半挂卡车的最新进展。下一阶段的发展将会是什么样子，完全自动驾驶（FSD）什么时候能够准备好？当然可以。正如我们在财报中提到的，我们正在推进雷诺数据工厂半挂卡车工厂的建设。我们已经为该项目发布了所有主要的资本支出计划。我们计划在明年的下半年开始试验生产，2026年上半年进入生产阶段，并在全年内逐步实现全面生产。半挂卡车的发展在很大程度上取决于客户对产品的接受程度。我认为我们不会在这个方面受到限制。因为这个品牌讲求的是总拥有成本的优势。是的，确实如此。我们对半挂卡车的需求非常旺盛。
In that world where it's about how much do I spend to go to? Yeah, exactly. It's per mile. It's a no-brainer. Yeah. Fundamentally, if you've got a semi where the fully considered cost per mile or for a ton of transport is better than, say, diesel truck, any company that doesn't adopt any electric semi will lose. It's not a subjective thing. It's like, whether do you like the competitive? I mean, we want the style. We want to have a good old semi truck. But frankly, if you read an ugly semi truck, what a matter. This is proving so in our fleets in Pepsi's partner. In fact, the Pepsi actually said last week, they're having nobody.
在那个世界里，讨论的是我花多少钱去做这件事，是的，正确来说是每英里计算的。这是不需要多想的一个决定。基本上，如果你有一辆电动半挂卡车，其每英里或每吨的运输成本比柴油卡车更低，那么任何不采用电动半挂卡车的公司都将失去竞争力。这不是一个主观的问题。是否喜欢竞争不是重点。我们可能想要时尚的，经典的半挂卡车，但坦率地说，即使那辆半挂卡车看起来丑陋也无所谓。在百事公司的车队中已经证明了这一点。事实上，百事公司上周表示，他们的车队中没有出现问题。
Their drivers don't want to go back. As soon as we give anyone the electric semi, that's like the choice. It's what they want to drive. Yeah, yeah. That's like the most senior, like their top drivers, they get to drive the Tesla semi. It's the thing they want to drive. It's super fun to drive. It's also very easy to drive. It's easy to drive and it holds fast. Maybe too fast. Well, but I mean, you've seen the videos of where I'd be like Tesla electric semi can go uphill.
他们的司机不想回头。一旦我们给任何人一辆电动半挂车，这就成了他们的首选。这就是他们想开的车。对，没错。像是资历最深、最优秀的司机，他们有机会开特斯拉的半挂车。这是他们想开的东西。开起来非常有趣，也非常容易。驾驶起来简单，而且速度很快。也许太快了。不过，我是说，你看过那些视频吧，特斯拉电动半挂车可以轻松爬坡。
Yes, yes, yes, we can speed it fast like the diesel truck. It really cars. Yeah, it cars. So like it's responsive. You floor it and the truck actually moved it. And that's a benefit not only for the driver and for the goods, but also for safety. In terms of other drivers on the road, you don't get stuck behind a semi. You're not like in a slow down situation in the on-road. I mean, how that plays into FSD, which is the second part of the question. All of this has been since a couple hundred we've deployed already and the ones that we'll be building next year and throughout future have all of the hardware and the cameras necessary to deploy FSD.
是的，是的，是的，我们可以像那种柴油卡车一样迅速加速。它真的像车一样灵活。是的，它像车一样。所以它反应很快，你一踩油门，卡车就真的动起来了。这样的好处不仅对司机和货物有帮助，还提高了安全性。对于路上的其他司机来说，你不会被大卡车挡在后面，也不会在路上遇到缓慢的情况。至于这如何与FSD（全自动驾驶）结合，这是问题的第二部分。所有这一切都是在我们已经部署的几百台卡车上实现的，而我们将来要制造的卡车都配备了部署FSD所需的所有硬件和摄像头。
And we're currently training with that small thing that we have. And as soon as the fleet is trained and the neural nets are up, we'll get FSD onto that platform. Yeah, I mean, it'll be a mass improvement in driver fatigue, you know, because driver safety, we've got sort of the anti jack-net thing, software, you know, you don't have to worry about your brakes overheating. If you go down to Steve Hill, because we use regenerating, that energy goes back into the pack. Actually, when we leave, it's just like it's radically better than it is with some way. So what the drivers love it.
我们目前正在利用现有的小规模资源进行训练。一旦整个车队训练完成，神经网络也准备就绪后，我们就会在这个平台上推出FSD（完全自动驾驶）功能。是的，这将极大地改善因驾驶疲劳带来的问题，因为我们有一种类似“防止汽车打滑”的软件系统，您不用担心刹车过热。比如说，如果您开车下陡坡，车辆会使用再生制动，将能量回收到电池中。实际上，我们已经取得了显著的改进，远胜于以往的方式。于是司机们都很喜欢这种变化。
Great, guys. Thank you very much. Our next question is when will Tesla incorporate X and Grock in all the Tesla vehicles? Well, I mean, these are relatively small fry things, you know. But yeah, I think we'll keep expanding, you know, what is available in the car on the screen and also improving like the browser. So like just generally you can access anything you want in the car. In fact, for the Tesla, you know, if we're just getting full autonomy, you actually want fully a system that is, you can do anything. Like if you want to browse the internet, if you want to, you know, ask AI questions, if you want to watch a movie, if you want to play a video game, if you want to do some productivity thing, you can do anything you want.
太好了，大家。非常感谢。我们的下一个问题是，特斯拉何时会在所有车辆中整合X和Grock？其实，这些东西相对来说还是比较小的。不过，我认为我们会继续扩大车内屏幕上的功能，并改进浏览器。总体上来说，你可以在车里访问任何你想要的东西。实际上，对于特斯拉来说，如果我们实现完全自动驾驶，你会希望有一个可以做任何事情的完整系统。比如，你想浏览互联网、询问AI问题、看电影、玩电子游戏、处理一些工作任务，你都可以在车里实现。
And in autonomous vehicle, because you don't need to drive. So that's why this hour cap got a nice victory. And the great sound system. So you can watch it. Watch a great movie. It's like doing like a, in a personal movie theater. Yeah, of course, the movie theater. Those. Yeah, this is why we've been building this functionality. I think gaming to the car, adding movies and other, you know, all sorts of different media stations of the car because, you know, the cars, that's what you're going to, that's, yeah, the cars that we built today. This is really fun and games, by the way, people haven't tried it.
在自动驾驶汽车中，因为你不需要亲自驾驶。所以，这就是为什么这一小时的限制取得了不错的胜利。有一个出色的音响系统，你可以在车里看一部精彩的电影，就像在私人电影院一样。当然，电影院是这样的。这也是为什么我们一直在打造这种功能。我认为将游戏、电影和其他各种媒体引入汽车是很有意义的，因为这就是我们今天制造的汽车的目标。顺便说一句，这真的很有趣，很多人还没有尝试过。
There's like Castle Doombad and Polytopia and a bunch of really fun games in the car. We're constantly looking at, you know, what features that add next. And we're paying attention to what's most commonly requested by our customers. Yeah, play Castle Doombad. You wonder if any of that. Great. Thank you guys very much.
车上有像《末日城堡》和《Polytopia》这样的非常有趣的游戏。我们一直在研究接下来可以添加哪些新功能，并关注客户最常提到的需求。是的，玩玩《末日城堡》吧。你会想知道其中的任何一点。太好了，非常感谢大家。
The next question is Elon mentioned unsupervised FSD in California, in Texas next year. Does that mean regulators have agreed to it in the entire state for existing hardware three and four vehicles? No, as I said earlier, California loves regulation, but they have a pathway. Yeah, I mean, there's a pathway obviously Waymo operates in California. So there's just a lot of forms about a lot of approvals that are required. I mean, I'd be shocked if we don't get approved next year, but it's just not something we totally control. But I think we will get approved next year in California and Texas.
下一个问题是"埃隆提到明年将在加州和德州推出无人监管的全自动驾驶（FSD）。这是否意味着监管机构已经同意在这两个州对现有的三代和四代硬件车辆进行全面推广？"并不是这样的。就像我之前说的，加州对法规非常重视，但他们有一条途径。我是说，显然Waymo在加州运营，所以有很多表格和批准程序需要完成。如果我们明年得不到批准，我会感到很惊讶，但这并不是我们完全能控制的事情。不过，我认为我们明年在加州和德州会获得批准。
And for the year, we'll branch out beyond California and Texas. I mean, I think it's important to reiterate this like, all you need are certifying a vehicle of federal level in the US is done by meeting FMDSS regulations. All our vehicles today that are produced, they're autonomous capable, meet all those regulations, the set of capital needs of regulations. And so the deployment of the vehicle to the road is not a limitation, but is a limitation, is what you said at the state level where they control autonomous vehicle deployment. Some states are relatively easy as you mentioned for Texas. Yeah. And so other ones have pathways like California that may take a little longer. Other ones hadn't set up anything yet. And so we will work in those state by state. I do think we should have a federal. I agree that autonomous vehicles should be approved. There should be possible to.
今年，我们计划扩展到加利福尼亚和德克萨斯之外。我认为，重要的是要重申这一点——在美国，只需要符合FMDSS规定即可让一辆车辆在联邦层面获得认证。我们目前生产的所有车辆都具备自动驾驶能力，并符合所有这些法规要求。因此，车辆上路部署并不是限制因素，限制因素在于各州的规定，因为各州控制着自动驾驶车辆的部署。正如你提到的，有些州比较容易，比如德克萨斯州。而加利福尼亚等州可能需要更长时间来通过某些程序，还有一些州尚未建立相关法规。因此，我们将逐州进行工作。我认为应该在联邦层面进行审批。我同意自动驾驶车辆应获得批准，这种情况应该是可行的。
Counter is if you're listening, let's get a federal ABA. There should be a federal approval process for autonomous vehicles. I mean, that's how the FMDSS is. It's a federal motor vehicle. The FMDSS is federal. Yeah. So I mean, in 2017 and 18, we, you know, so when the regulators started looking at it and it's really kind of stalled since then, but we would appreciate and would support helping out with those. It really needs to be not at like a national approval is important. You know, if there's an Department of Governor efficiency, I'll try to help make that happen. I did say it for everyone. Not just as long as we, but you know, just like some things in the US are state by state, regulated, like, for example, insurance. And it's like incredibly capable to do it state by state for 50 states. And I think we should have this should be a natural approval process for autonomy. Great. Thanks guys.
如果你在听，Counter，我建议我们需要一个联邦级别的自动驾驶车辆审批流程。这需要一个联邦的批准程序，就像联邦机动车安全标准（FMDSS）那样。FMDSS是联邦的标准。所以在2017年和2018年，当监管机构开始关注这个问题时，进展就有点停滞了。但我们会非常乐意支持和帮助推进这个过程。重要的是，这需要成为一个全国性的审批流程。比如在美国，有些事情是按州来管理的，比如保险，但是对于全美50个州来说，这样做是极为复杂的。因此，我认为自动驾驶技术应该有一个全国性的审批流程。谢谢大家。
The next question is what is the plan for 2025? I mean, we're just talking. It is now. I mean, basically we talked to them. There's a lot going on. You know, Nolte mentioned that we're working on cheaper models to come out. I mean, they have work with the team is doing to get the factories ready today to try and make that happen. Yeah, by the way, the amount of work requires him to make a lower class car is insanely high. But like it is harder to get like 20% of the cost out of a car than it is to design the car and build the entire factory in the first place. It's like excruciating. And it's and it's not a lot of movies made about that the heroes who got 20% of the cost out of a car. But let me tell you, this should be. Everything got that is incredibly heroic. It's a little change. It's not like a.
接下来的问题是，我们2025年的计划是什么？我的意思是，我们只是讨论一下。目前，我们已经和他们进行了沟通。发生了很多事情。你知道，诺尔特提到我们正在研发更便宜的车型。我们的团队现在正在努力使工厂准备就绪，以便实现这个目标。顺便说一下，要制造出一款低价车型，需要完成的工作量非常大。其实，要从一辆车的成本中削减20%比设计汽车和建造整个工厂更困难。这是一项极其艰难的任务，虽然很少有电影会讲述那些将汽车成本削减20%的英雄，但我想说，这种成就真的非常了不起。它虽然只是一个小小的改变，但非常重要。
Yeah, it's like, this should be the heroes who got 20% cost out of a car is like damn, I'm going to respect them. We're talking movie. You know, I think you probably could make it compelling with me, but it just no. Like if you actually saw how hard if you've actually saw how hard it was to do that, you'd be like, whoa, that's damn hard. Just yesterday, we were talking about potty. Honestly, like literally, yeah, I mean, there's a lot of, I do call it sort of like getting cost out of things kind of like it's like game of pennies. It's like game of thrones, but pennies. The first approximation is if you've got 10,000 items in a car, very rough approximation, and each of them costs $4, then you have a $40,000 car. So if you want to make a, you know, a $35,000 car, you've got to get 50 cents on average out of the 10,000 items. Every time, every part. Yeah. And it's like, you know, and then obviously the best is you delete some parts.
是的，就像这样，那些能把汽车成本削减20%的人，应该被视为英雄，我会很佩服他们。我们在谈论电影，你知道，我觉得和我一起可能会让它变得很吸引人，但实际上并不是。如果你真的看到为了做到这一点有多困难，你会觉得，哇，这真是太难了。就在昨天，我们还在谈论，“便宜”的问题。老实说，真的，我是说，有很多，我称之为成本削减的一部分，就像是“几分钱的游戏”，有点像“权力的游戏”，不过是分钱的。如果你把汽车看作由大约1万个零件组成，这是一个非常粗略的估计，每个零件成本4美元，那么这辆车的总成本就是4万美元。所以如果你想要制作一辆3.5万美元的汽车，你就得从1万个零件中平均削减50美分。每次对每个部分都是这样的。然后显然最好的是直接去掉一些零件。
In fact, we're not able to delete a lot of parts. I'm very, I'm not very excited about the, the salary cap design and the, but you know, how we're rethinking the design of a car for the salary cap, design it for all high volume production, and then designing a machine that builds the machine that I think is also revolutionary. And it's just that there's no other car company that's even trying to do what we're doing. Like I don't even heard of it actually. In fact, I'm certain there isn't one. Like, like, I think this, the, on your machine, I've lost the machine.
事实上，我们无法删除很多部分。我对工资帽的设计并不太感兴趣，但是我们正在重新思考汽车的设计，让它适应工资帽的条件，并进行大批量生产，这也涉及到设计制造机器的机器。我认为这是非常革命性的。目前没有其他汽车公司尝试做我们正在做的事情，实际上我甚至没听说过有类似的公司。我确信没有其他公司像我们这样。我觉得在这个机器上，我已经失去了对机器的掌控。
Like it's, it's, it's inherently like that it's, it's, it's designed to be like Yeah. Five, five times better than traditional factory, like cycle time. Cycle time and like part deletion, which I don't think any other car company has the same level of like integration of thought that we have when it comes to like, when you design a part from the white sheet of paper, who's going to make it? Where's it going to be made? How's it going to be shipped? How's it going to be assembled into the vehicle and like at any one point, if something is done in a silo, it becomes a bottleneck of either cost or time or efficiency, but with the, with the roitaxi, you know, the development, like we've done a good job on like combining all that and then like blowing up how it's made and saying it should be made this way and rethinking it all so that it's the most efficient factory possible that shows in our, it will fit in our capex efficiency when we deploy it. Shows in the number of parts, shows in simplicity and vehicle, but also how it performs in, in terms of like end user state.
这款产品的设计本来就是这样的，它的设计目标是比传统工厂的周期时间和零部件删除效率高出五倍。我认为没有其他汽车公司在零部件设计从最初阶段就有我们这样的深度整合的思考。也就是说，从设计图纸开始，就考虑到谁来制造、在哪里制造、如何运输以及如何装配到车辆中。任何一个环节如果是分开处理的，就可能成为成本、时间或效率的瓶颈。但通过我们的roitaxi（假设这是产品或项目的名称），我们在开发过程中很好地整合了所有这些因素，并重新审视制造流程，将其做到最佳效率，这体现在我们资本支出效率中、零部件数量的减少、设计的简化以及最终在用户体验上的表现。
Yeah, just to close out, just on the energy front also in 25, we will have started with flashing at the manufacturer's high. We'll continue to increase our storage deployments with Powerwall 3. We plan to continue expanding our supercharging network, getting more OEMs on our network, 4680, and that's all that as you want to talk about that would keep going. And then if there's a, we also would have a new team refinery starting to produce. So there's a lock which is going on. Okay. Yeah, so many things. I really create like crazy thing is like Tesla is running basically on almost every single thing we're doing. If we're not running now, we're trying to run in a, in a, we're in this where there are entire large companies that that's the only thing they do. Yeah. I mean, it's, it's a company, there are multiple companies within the company. Yeah. Tesla's like many companies doing one. That's sick. Thank you guys. Just a few more. What is going on with the Tesla Roadster?
好的，简单总结一下，在2025年的能源方面，我们会在制造商的高规格下开始闪亮登场，同时继续增加Powerwall 3的储能部署。我们计划继续扩展超级充电网络，吸引更多的原始设备制造商（OEM）加入我们的网络，并推进4680电池的进展。此外，我们还将启动一个新的团队精炼厂开始生产。因此，有很多事情正在进行。确实，Tesla几乎在我们所做的每一件事情上都走在前列。如果我们现在还没有走在前面，我们也在努力赶上，有些大的公司只专注于某一领域，而Tesla几乎是在涉足所有领域。可以说，这是一家公司，但内部就像有多个公司在运作。Tesla就像许多公司合为一体一样，这真是太厉害了。非常感谢大家。关于Tesla Roadster的动态，还有一些事情正在进行。
From things. Well, I'd just like to thank our long-suffering deposit holders of the Tesla Roadster. You know, the reason it hasn't come out yet is because it is that it is, the Roadster is not not just the icing on the cake. It's the cherry on the icing on the cake. And so, you know, our, our, our large emission is, is to accelerate the progress towards a sustainable energy future. You know, try to do things that maximize the probability that the future is good for humanity and for Earth. And, and so that necessarily means that like the things like that are kind of like deserted, we'd like, like, we'd all love to work on the Tesla net next year in Tesla Roadster. It is super fun. And we are working on it. But it has to come behind them the more things, the things that have a more serious impact on the good of the world. So just thank you to all our long-suffering Tesla Roadster deposit holders. And we are actually finally making progress on that. And we're, we're close to finalizing the design on that. It's really going to be something spectacular. You know, friend of mine, Peter Teal. You know, and so, sometimes people are like, Peter Teal now, right? We're really good friends. Peter, you know, was lamenting how, you know, the future doesn't have flying cars. Well, we'll see. Peter Teal. Where'd it come?
谢谢特斯拉Roadster长时间等待的定金持有人。你们知道，Roadster到现在还没有推出是因为它不仅仅是蛋糕上的糖霜，它是糖霜上的樱桃。我们的主要使命是加速向可持续能源未来的过渡，尽力做一些能最大化地确保人类和地球有个美好未来的事情。所以，这也意味着我们优先处理那些对世界更有影响的事情，而不是我们都想在明年工作的特斯拉Roadster。虽然Roadster超级有趣，我们也在研发中，但它必须排在那些对世界有更大影响的事情之后。
感谢所有耐心等待的特斯拉Roadster定金持有人。其实我们正在取得进展，接近完成它的设计。它真的会很特别。我的朋友彼得·蒂尔有时候感慨未来没有飞行汽车，我们拭目以待。
Yeah. Great. Thank you very much. The next one is quite similar to other questions you've had. So I might combine it with, with the final question. So briefly, could you just detail how Verbo Taxi will roll out? Will it start with a Tesla deployed fleet and then allow customers to add theirs on the subscription model? And then we'll hardware 3D capable of little 5X2. As you're going to get hardware 3, what we saw with 12 or 5 was it was easier to make black progress with starting with hardware 4 and feeling on the solution and then backporting into hardware 3 instead of directly working on hardware 3, given that hardware 4 has more like fundamental hardware capabilities. I think that trend will continue into the next few corners as well by the first figure on the solution rapidly with AI 4 and then backported right the kernels and just takes longer to learn of those things because it's not fundamentally supported in the hardware and it's emulated. But yeah, initially working on hardware 4, backporting it to hardware 3.
好的，非常感谢你。接下来这个问题与之前的问题很相似，所以我可能会将它与最后一个问题合并。你能简单说明一下Verbo Taxi是如何推出的吗？是不是会从特斯拉部署的车队开始，然后允许客户通过订阅模式添加他们的车辆？然后，硬件3D是否具备5X2的能力？我们看到在使用硬件3时，采用硬件4入手会更容易取得进展，因为硬件4具有更强的基本硬件能力。预计这个趋势还会在接下来的几个季度持续，首先在AI 4上快速实现解决方案，然后再回迁到硬件3。因为某些功能在硬件上并不完全支持，是通过模拟实现的，所以需要更长时间来学习。但初期会在硬件4上工作，然后再回迁至硬件3。
Yeah. So it's, the answer is we're not, we're not in hardware 3D. Sure. But, but as a short measure, because by some measures, hardware 4 has really, as several times the capability of hardware 3, it's easier to get things to work with hardware 4 and then it takes a lot of effort to sort of squeeze that functionality into hardware 3. And there is some chance that hardware 3 does not achieve the safety level that allows for unsupervised FSD. You know, there was there was some chance of that. And if that turns out to be the case, we will upgrade those who have bought hardware 3, FSD for free. And we have designed the system to be upgradeable. And it's really, it's really what, you know, just to sort of switch out the computer type thing. Like the cameras are, you know, they're capable. But anyway, we don't actually know the answer to that. But if it does turn out, we'll take, we'll make sure we take care of those who have bought MSD on hardware 3. Great. And I know last few minutes that we have left, we will try to get in some analyst questions. The first question will be coming from Pierre Farragum at New Street. Pierre, please feel free to unmute yourself. Thanks a lot, guys, for taking my question. I was wondering about like the confusion you're ramping up. So you gave like interesting statistics on how much you have. And you said you don't feel your compute constraint. And I was wondering, you know, how you are putting to work this additional compute. Is that a game for you of creating like larger and larger models, like next generation of models that are larger the way open AI go from GPT 3 to GPT 4? Or is that more like you're set on your model and you need to throw more and more compute to accelerate the pace of learning to improve reliability? And then I had a quick follow up real quick on your rollout in Texas and in in California next year, the plan as you see today is to roll out like a fleet or two with cars that will start with like a super visa area, like some onboard super vision, someone sitting at the wheel just in case and removing the super advisors progressively or are you aiming for going fully fledged without even a human super supervisor when you get started?
好的，答案是我们并没有使用硬件3D。当然，从某种意义上来说，因为硬件4比硬件3有好几倍的能力，所以用硬件4来实现功能更容易，而在硬件3上实现相同的功能需要很多努力。而且硬件3可能无法达到无人监督完全自动驾驶（FSD）所需的安全水平。这是有可能的，如果事实如此，我们会为那些已经购买硬件3的FSD用户免费升级。我们的系统其实是可升级的，基本上就是类似换掉电脑的操作。摄像头方面是没有问题的。不过，我们还不确定最终结果如何，但如果真有必要，我们会确保关心那些在硬件3上购买了MSD的用户。
好的，接下来我们会抽出最后几分钟尝试回答一些分析师的问题。首先的问题来自New Street的Pierre Farragum。Pierre，你可以自由取消静音提问。
谢谢你们接受我的提问。我想了解一下你们增加的计算能力的问题。你们给出了关于计算能力的有趣数据，并表示不觉得受限于计算能力。我想知道，你们是如何利用这些额外的计算能力的？是否是在创建越来越大的模型，就像Open AI从GPT-3转到GPT-4那样，还是你们已经在特定模型上，并需要更多的计算能力来加速学习，提高可靠性？
然后，我有个关于你们明年在德克萨斯和加利福尼亚推出计划的快速跟进问题。就目前的计划来看，是不是会先推出一两车队，在车上配有监督员以防万一，并逐渐移除这些超级监督员？或者你们是否目标是从一开始就完全没有人类监督员？
Okay, well, I guess we're going to answer the first part of the question indeed. The nature of real world AI is different from say in LLM in that you have a massive amount of context. So that like the you've got cases tells the summary cameras that, you know, after nine if you include the internal camera that that that so you've got gigabytes of context and that that is then distilled down into a small number of control outputs. You know, whereas it's like you don't really it's very rare to have in fact, I'm not sure any AI LLM out there do gigabytes of context. And then you've got to go to the process that in the car with a very small amount of compute power. So, it's all doable and it's happening, but it is a different problem than what say a Gemini or opening is doing. And now part of the way you can make up for the fact that the Inferns computer is quite small is by spending a lot of effort on training. And just like just like a human like the more you train on something, the less mental workload it takes when you try to when you when you do it like when the first time like a human starts driving, it absorbs your whole mind.
好的，那么我想我们将回答问题的第一部分。现实世界中的人工智能与大语言模型（LLM）有着不同的特点，因为它需要处理大量的上下文信息。比如，在现实世界应用中，你可能会有案件告诉相机在九点之后添加内部相机的数据，这样你就有了数百兆字节的上下文信息，然后将其浓缩成少量的控制输出。但是在大多数情况下，几乎没有大语言模型能够处理这么多的上下文信息。此外，你还需要在车内用极少的计算能力去处理这些信息。因此，这一切虽然可行并已经在进行中，但这与Gemini或OpenAI正在做的事情是不同的问题。而应对推理计算机计算能力有限的方法之一就是投入大量精力进行训练。就像人类一样，你对某件事情训练得越多，当你再做这件事情时所需的心力就越小。比如，人类第一次学开车时，整个心思都会被占据。
But then as you train more and more on driving, you're pretty good. And you the driving cover becomes a background task. It doesn't get only absorbs a small amount of your mental capacity because you have a lot of training. So, we can make up for the fact that the Inferns computer is it's it's tiny compared to a 10 kilowatt bank of GPUs because you've got a few hundred watts of Inferns computer. We can make up that with heavy training. So, yeah, that's a and then there's also vast amounts that the actual petabytes of data coming in are tremendous. And then sorting out what training is important with, you know, all of the vast amounts of video training, video data coming in complete. What is actually most important for training? That's the point. That's the point. But as I said, we're not currently training compute constraint. I'm sure you want to elaborate.
翻译成中文：
但是，当你在驾驶方面接受越来越多的训练后，你就会变得很厉害。驾驶变成了一种背景任务，只吸收你少量的注意力，因为你已经经过大量训练。这样，我们就可以弥补Inferns计算机的劣势，因为它的计算能力相比一个10千瓦的GPU集群要小得多，你只有几百瓦的Inferns计算机。我们可以通过大量训练来弥补这个差距。因此，这是一个方面。还有就是来自实际数据的海量信息，数据量很大。然后，我们需要在众多视频训练数据中理清哪些训练最为重要。这才是关键。正如我所说的，我们目前并不受计算能力的限制。我相信你会想进一步了解。
Yeah, thank you. I mentioned the training has both trained large models also to train quicker. But in the end, we still got to pick which models are performing better. So the validation effort to picking the models because the model sprint dimension is pretty large. We're trying a lot of miles to go in close loop. We do have simulation and other ways to get those metrics and those to help. But in the end, that's a big bottleneck. Yeah, that's why we're not training compute constraint alone. And there's other access of scaling as well, which is a data, figuring out which data is more useful. That is an important task and we're focusing on that. Yeah, so as it relates to the second part of your question here about safety drivers enrolling it out, each state has different requirements that, you know, in terms of how many miles and how much time you need to have a safety driver and not have a safety driver, we're going to follow all those. We're not going to violate whatever regulations are out there. But safety is a priority. But the goal is obviously that when we're ready and safety is there, we'll remove all the drives from the right track. Yeah, I mean, I guess like we think that we'll be able to have driverless Tesla's doing paid rides next year. Sometimes you're sure. All right, thank you. And our next question comes from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley. Adam, please feel free to undo yourself.
好的，谢谢。我提到过我们的训练不仅是训练大型模型，还要提高训练速度。但最终，我们还是需要选择表现更好的模型。因此，选择模型的验证工作非常重要，因为模型冲刺的维度相当大。我们尝试了很多方法来进入闭环操作。我们确实有模拟和其他方法来获取这些指标，这些对我们很有帮助。但最终，这仍然是一个大的瓶颈。因此，我们的限制不仅仅在于计算能力，还有其他扩展因素，比如数据。弄清楚哪些数据更有用是一个重要的任务，我们正在专注于这一点。
至于你问题的第二部分，关于安全驾驶员的部署，每个州的要求不同，比如需要多少里程和时间有安全驾驶员，或者什么时候不需要，我们会遵循所有这些要求。我们不会违反任何现有的法规。安全是我们的优先事项。不过，目标显然是，当我们准备好且安全得到保障时，会在合适的轨道上取消所有驾驶员。我想我们有可能在明年实现无人驾驶特斯拉提供付费乘车服务。谢谢。接下来的问题来自摩根士丹利的亚当·乔纳斯。亚当，请随时提问。
Okay, thanks everybody. Just had a question about the relationship between Tesla and XAI. Many investors are still not clear how the work at XAI is truly beneficial to Tesla. Some even take the view that the two companies may even be in competition with each other in terms of talent and tech and even your time, Elon. So what's your message to investors on that relationship between Tesla and XAI? And where do you see it going over time? Thanks. Well, I should say that XAI has been helpful to Tesla AI in quite a few times in terms of things like scaling up, bought it like training. Just even like recently in the last week or so, take Rubinson, bought power training. Where if you're doing a big training one and node fails, be able to continue training and either recover from under training one, XAI has been pretty helpful. But there are different problems. XAI is working on artificial general intelligence or artificial super intelligence. Tesla is trying to make autonomous cars and autonomous roadblocks. They're different problems. So, yeah, I mean.
好的，谢谢大家。关于特斯拉和XAI之间的关系，我有个问题。许多投资者仍不清楚XAI的工作如何真正对特斯拉有利。有些人甚至认为两家公司可能在人才、技术，甚至在您的时间上存在竞争，埃隆。那么，您对投资者有关特斯拉和XAI关系的看法是什么？您认为这种关系将来会如何发展？谢谢。
我想说XAI在很多方面对特斯拉的人工智能有所帮助，比如在扩大规模和训练方面做得像样。甚至就在最近一周，我们采用Rubinson进行动力训练时遇到了问题，比如在进行大规模训练时某个节点失败，XAI帮助我们继续训练或者从失败中恢复过来。但两家公司面临不同的问题。XAI致力于通用人工智能或超级人工智能，而特斯拉则致力于制造自动驾驶汽车和自动化系统。这是完全不同的问题。所以，是的。
I think we've said this before also. Not only is it equal, there's AI is a broad spectrum. And we have our old swim mates. There are certain things which we can collaborate on if needed, but for the most part, we're solving different issues. Yeah, Tesla's works on real world AI. And I was saying earlier, it is quite a bit different from an LOM. Because you have massive context in the whole video and some amount of audio, that's going to be distilled very like with extremely efficient inference compute. I do think Tesla is the most efficient in the world in terms of inference compute. Because at our necessity, we have to be very good at efficient inference. We can't put 10 kilowatts of GPUs in a car. We've got a couple hundred ones. It's pretty well designed Tesla AI show, but it's still a couple hundred ones. But there are different problems. I mean, it's just. The stuff that XA had is like, when it's running inference, I mean, it is running inference. Antheric questions is answering tests and questions on a 10 kilowatt rack. It's like, yeah, put that in a car. It's a different problem. Please, though. No, exactly.
我认为我们之前也提到过这一点。不仅是相等的，人工智能是一个广泛的领域。我们有我们之前的合作伙伴。有些事情如果需要的话我们可以合作，但大多数情况下，我们在解决不同的问题。是的，特斯拉致力于现实世界的人工智能。我之前提到过，这和大语言模型有很大的不同。因为你在整个视频和一定量的音频中拥有大量的背景信息，这些信息将通过极为高效的推理计算进行提炼。我确实认为特斯拉在推理计算的效率上是世界上最出色的。因为出于必要，我们必须在高效推理方面做到极致。我们不能在车里放10千瓦的GPU，我们只有几百瓦的。这是一个设计得非常好的特斯拉人工智能展示，但也只是几百瓦。但问题是不同的。XA使用的东西，比如它在进行推理的时候，它就是在进行推理。它是在一个10千瓦的机架上回答复杂的问题和测试题。要把那放到车里，就是完全不同的问题。没有错，这就是事实。
So, you know, XAIs because I felt there wasn't a truth-seeking digital super intelligence company out there. Like, that's what it came down to. It needed to be a truth-seeking, like an AI company that is just very reverse-eval. It's not saying XAIs is perfect, but that is at least the explosive aspiration. Even if something is politically correct, it should still be truthful. I think this is very important for AI safety. So, anyway, I think AI, XAI will. It has been helpful to Tesla and will continue to be helped to Tesla, but they are very different problems. Great. And I mean, I think what is. What are the car company has? It has a whole class trip design team. Like zero. What are the car company has a whole class AI team like Tesla does? Zero. Those are all startups that have created a scratch.
所以，你知道，为何创建XAIs，是因为我觉得市场上还没有一个真正追求真相的数字超级智能公司。这就是我最终的理念。我们需要一个追求真相的AI公司，就像一个完全反恶意的。并不是说XAIs是完美的，但这至少是我们的巨大目标。即使某件事情是政治正确的，也应该是真实的。我认为这对AI的安全性非常重要。无论如何，我认为XAI对特斯拉已经有所帮助，并将继续有所帮助，但它们面临的挑战是非常不同的。你看，有哪家车企有全班级别的设计团队呢？几乎没有。有哪家车企像特斯拉一样拥有完整的AI团队呢？几乎没有。这些都是从零开始建立的新创公司。
Great. Thank you, Elon. And I think that's unfortunately all the time that we have for today. We appreciate all of your questions, and I look forward to getting this clear. Thank you very much, and goodbye.
好的。谢谢你，Elon。很遗憾，今天的时间就到这里。我们感谢大家的提问，并期待进一步的澄清。非常感谢，再见。
All right. Hey, everybody. Just gonna. Give me one second here. We've got a lot to talk about. Give me an audio set. Let me know if that level is good for everybody. And then we'll just go through some of the things that we heard. Hopefully everyone had a chance to go through or to watch the shareholder letter reaction earlier. Obviously, we got a lot of news there, but a very interesting call as well. So I think we've got some exciting stuff to go through.
好的。大家好。请稍等一下。我们有很多事情要讨论。先给我一点时间调整音频设置，告诉我声音的大小是否合适。然后我们会逐一讨论一些我们听到的内容。希望大家之前有机会阅读或观看过股东信的反应。显然，我们从中得到了不少消息，但这通电话也很有意思。我认为我们将要讨论一些令人兴奋的内容。
So we can kind of just go through an order. I'm just gonna look here. Volume is low. Volume good. Okay. Yeah, it was a little bit low before. Sounds like we're good. All right. So yeah. Exciting. Exciting. I think that's the overall takeaway for me is this kind of felt like an older days test the call. And for those that didn't have a chance to listen earlier, you know, one of the things that I said is that we're in a period right now where Tesla is very much shifting their priorities. They're working on a lot of stuff that is behind the scenes that doesn't necessarily come through and quarterly reports.
我们可以按照顺序来讨论一下。我现在要先看一下这里。音量有点小。音量好了。好的。之前音量有点小。现在听起来不错。好的，是的。真让人兴奋。我觉得这次通话让我感觉像是以前的测试电话。对于那些之前没有机会听的人，我之前提到的其中一点是，我们正处于一个特斯拉优先级变化的时期。他们正在努力推进很多幕后的工作，这些工作不一定会体现在季度报告中。
And as I was sitting here and thinking about this earnings call versus like earnings calls that we've had over the last few quarters, I'm glad Tesla is a public company, but this is one of the major, major disadvantages of being a public company is when you have periods of time like this. There just gets to be so much just negativity around the company because of a few quarters worth of results.
当我坐在这里思考这次财报电话会议与过去几个季度的财报电话会议时，我很高兴特斯拉是一家上市公司，但这也是成为上市公司的一个主要缺点。当公司经历这样的时期时，由于几个季度的业绩结果不理想，公司周围会产生大量的负面情绪。
Like if this if that's where private company, we go through periods like that, no problem. No one really cares too much about like, all right, this quarter was 2% lower than last quarter or whatever else. Because the time horizon, the holding period, there's so much longer that there's just an ability to stay focused on those longer term things.
如果这是一家私人公司，我们经历这样的时期也没关系。没有人会过于在意，比如这个季度比上个季度低了2%之类的事情。因为时间跨度和持有期都更长，所以我们有能力专注于那些长期的目标。
And I think Tesla, they had a good quarter that's helping improve the sentiment. And then there's all I think there's a lot of like tangible progress towards where Tesla's going next. They're starting to work on a lot of these things. They're starting to realize a lot of what is to come and be able to articulate those things, which maybe over the last year, they've been working on them, but it just hasn't been close enough to be kind of like getting that excitement level up yet.
我认为特斯拉在这个季度表现不错，这有助于改善市场情绪。而且，我觉得特斯拉在未来发展的方向上有很多实质性的进展。他们正在着手处理许多事情，开始实现许多即将到来的目标，并能够清晰地表述这些东西。或许在过去的一年里，他们已经在努力，但还没有达到能够激发市场兴奋的阶段。
And Tesla still tries to do that. They still try to reiterate, you know, this is what's coming. This is what's coming. But you hear that so many times, so many quarters in a row. And then you see like the financial results not yielding any of that yet, because obviously it's still in development. People just get really down and really negative.
特斯拉依然在努力做到这一点。他们仍然不断重申，告诉你这就是即将到来的东西。这就是即将到来的东西。但你听到这种说法太多次、连续很多个季度了，然后你看到财务结果并没有体现出这些，因为显然这些东西还在开发中。人们就会变得非常失望和消极。
And I think this quarter is a little bit of a breath of fresh air, both for the underlying business and today's business, but also just like the Robotaxi events, you know, some of the things Elon said here, like CyberCab 2026, he's viewing that as volume production. I think that's a lot quicker than what people may be expected coming out of the Robotaxi event where Elon had said, you know, 2026, it might be 2027, which we should definitely keep that in mind.
我认为这个季度对基础业务和当下的业务来说都是一种新气象，就像最近的无人驾驶出租车活动一样。你知道，Elon在这里提到的一些事情，比如CyberCab将在2026年进行量产，我觉得这比很多人在无人驾驶出租车活动后预期的要快。因为Elon曾提到过2026年，可能会到2027年，所以我们应该牢记这一点。
But it seems like he was referencing more of volume production versus without that clear fire. I think the natural expectation of the natural assumption should be that's just started production. So for him to be, you know, talking about volume production 2026, like, that's going to be here sooner than we know, reiterating more affordable vehicles next year, we'll talk a little bit more about that.
他似乎在谈论的是大规模生产，而不是那种显而易见的紧迫状态。我认为，人们通常会认为这才刚开始生产。所以，当他说2026年会实现大规模生产时，就会觉得比我们想象的来得更快。他还再次强调了明年会推出更实惠的车型，我们稍后会详细讨论这个话题。
We're just starting to get to, you know, more exciting, more exciting things happening for the business, which again, I've been in the works. But just any, any business, there's going to be periods of time where things plateau. And you know, when you're a public company and you report quarterly, people get really really upset by that sort of stuff.
我们才刚开始进入一个更加激动人心的阶段，公司会有更多令人兴奋的事情发生。事实上，这些一直在筹划之中。但就像任何生意一样，总会有一段时间会停滞不前。你知道，当你是一家上市公司并且需要季度报告时，人们对此类事情会非常、非常不满。
So I think this is just a good opportunity to, you know, to realize and now with with some of like the positive reaction, it just helps people be more confident in those types of things and kind of like mentally reinvest a little bit in what Tesla is doing, what they're trying to achieve and get kind of that buy in and more positive sentiment, which I think, you know, just helps the business, obviously helps the share price, things like that.
我认为这是一个很好的机会，让我们意识到这一点。随着一些积极的反应，它帮助人们对这些事情更加自信，并在心理上重新投入一点在特斯拉正在做的事情和他们想要达到的目标上。这种认同和更多的正面情绪，我认为显然有助于业务发展，也有助于股价等。
So I'm excited to see that. I think you guys know, whenever the stock is down 10% after earnings, those are the kind of things that I reiterate. But you know, I think people are just more eyes open to it when we do have a more positive report like this. Throughout the call, I think the team did a good job. I think Elon did a good job. He articulated what Tesla is doing well, seemed to be in very good spirit. So always good to see those types of things too.
所以我很高兴看到这一点。我想你们都知道，每当股票在财报公布后下跌 10% 时，这就是我需要强调的事情。但是，当我们有像这样的积极报告时，人们的关注似乎更多。在整个电话会议中，我认为团队表现得很好，Elon 也表现得不错。他清楚地解释了特斯拉正在做的事情，并且心情看起来非常好。所以，看到这样的情况总是令人欣慰。
All right, so those things being said, let's just hop in here and go through kind of like point by point, there's a lot of stuff. So I'm going to look at these very closely. I try to like go through fast, but I don't want to miss anything because I had a number of thoughts as Tesla went through things. All right, so achieved overall, you know, record deliveries. I don't know if that was a Q through record or a total record. I have to go back and look at that. Other EV companies, EV divisions, not profitable. Very few companies report right there, EV itemized businesses.
好的，以上几点说完之后，我们就开始一个个详细看看吧，这里有很多内容。所以我会仔细查看这些。我会尽量快速浏览，但不想遗漏任何细节，因为在特斯拉推进时我有不少想法。好的，总的来说，他们实现了创纪录的交付量。我不确定这是季度记录还是总记录，需要回过头去查看一下。其他电动车公司或电动车部门还没有盈利。很少有公司会单独报告电动车业务的详细数据。
We've got like Rivian and Lucid, obviously purely EVs, BYD, although their financials, it's always a little bit trickier to trust when the company is based in China. It's like some of these financials being shifted over to another company and positive impact for BYD that's been showing negative on another company. Things like that are a little bit more difficult to know and to trust, particularly with BYD. But for the US companies, certainly, the road to profitability has been arduous to say the least.
我们有像Rivian和Lucid这样的公司，显然它们都是纯电动车企，还有比亚迪。虽然比亚迪的财务状况总是有点难以信任，因为公司总部在中国。这就好像一些财务数据被转移到另一家公司，对比亚迪产生了积极影响，而在另一家公司却显示为负面。类似的情况使得了解和信任变得更加困难，尤其是对于比亚迪来说。但是，对于美国的公司来说，盈利之路可以说是异常艰难。
So I think good that Elon reiterated that. And obviously, this quarter was particularly strong relative to last quarter, just in the fundamental strength business. Again, for those that didn't listen earlier, one of the items that we still need to kind of keep an eye on, which was not answered during the earnings call, is how much of the automotive gross profit was contributed from FSD revenue recognition, which they did highlight as one of the items that contributed positively.
所以我认为伊隆重申这一点是好的。显然，这个季度相对于上个季度来说特别强劲，这反映了业务的基本实力。再次提醒那些之前没有听的人，其中一个我们仍需关注的问题是在财报电话会议中没有得到回答的，就是汽车毛利中有多少是由FSD（全自动驾驶）收入确认贡献的，他们确实强调这是一个对业绩有积极贡献的因素。
We won't know until we get the 10Q how much of an impact that was. So that could be hundreds of millions of dollars, which could really change how people interpret this report. So it's going to be a very important item to look at. Hopefully, it's a small amount, but we just have to wait and see. So 7 million, 7 million vehicle produced, that's, that's awesome. I mean, Tesla's knocking it out of the park when you look at the long term perspective.
我们需要等到10Q报告出来后，才能知道这对公司产生了多大的影响。这个影响可能达到数亿美元，这会极大地改变人们对这份报告的看法。因此，这将是一个非常重要的关注点。希望这个影响只是一个小数目，但我们只能拭目以待。不过，无论如何，特斯拉已经生产了700万辆汽车，这真是令人惊叹的成绩。从长远来看，特斯拉的表现非常出色。
And it's just so nice to see all these electric vehicles on the road. Energy storage business, obviously doing excellent. I know Vayabov said some things, CFO said some things about sort of the margins. I was, it's tough, you know, just trying to understand and then also take notes when he's speaking. So I do have to go back and look at some of those things. I know he mentioned a couple things on margin. One for sure, though, is that he does expect next quarter energy storage deployments to increase.
看到道路上这么多电动汽车，真的很不错。能源储存业务显然表现出色。我知道Vayabov说了一些事情，首席财务官也提到了一些关于利润率的内容。理解这些信息并同时做笔记是有点困难的，所以我需要回过头来仔细看一些内容。我确实记得他提到了一些关于利润率的事情。其中有一点可以确定的是，他预计下个季度能源储存的部署会增加。
This quarter, obviously, we saw them decrease as we had a huge Q two dropped off in Q three as those deployments are a little bit lumpy. So totally expected, not surprising. They kind of alluded to that last quarter in the earnings call, and this quarter kind of the opposite. So we should see that kind of bounce back next quarter, which is really exciting. More than 100% growth year over year. I don't know exactly off the top of my head what it was last year. But that kind of gives us some guidance for Q four. And they also said they expect delivery growth and automotive for for the year as well. So that can kind of back into some Q four numbers as well.
这个季度，我们显然看到了一些下降，因为我们在第二季度有一个巨大的增长，但在第三季度有所下降，因为这些部署有些不平稳。不过这在预期之中，没有什么意外。他们在上个季度的财报电话会议上也提到过这一点，这个季度的情况有些相反。所以我们预计下个季度会有一个反弹，这真的令人兴奋。相比去年同期增长超过100%。我不太记得去年的具体数据，但这给我们提供了一些有关第四季度的指导。他们还表示，预计全年汽车交付量也会增长。所以这也能帮助我们预估一些第四季度的数据。
As we talked about, you know, 50 autonomous vehicles operating Tesla had previously said 1300 rides, most rides had, you know, two two people in and at least some of the model wise, I'm sure had probably more. So yeah, thousands of people being transported around all night, no incidents, things like that. More affordable, more affordable models in the first half of 2025. It was a little bit, I don't know, obscured or whatever, but it sounded like they said that these vehicles would be $30,000 after incentives.
正如我们之前谈到的，特斯拉曾表示，有50辆自动驾驶汽车在运营，提供了1300次乘车服务。大多数乘车服务中有两个人，有些Model Y车型中的乘客甚至可能更多。所以，一晚上就运送了成千上万的人，而且没有发生事故之类的事情。更实惠的车型预计在2025年上半年推出。虽然有点不太清楚，但听起来他们说这些车辆在享受补贴后的价格将是30,000美元。
Now there are state incentives. I know the big one is the $7,500 federal tax credit. They could technically include state incentives in there too. I think there are a few states with a couple thousand dollars. I think California being one, obviously Colorado. So they could technically be including those. They could technically include gas savings, which is what the website design studio configurator does. So just keep those things in mind. Hopefully they're only talking about the $7,500 thing, which could mean the you know, the vehicle starting at like $37,000 or something like that. Again, I don't think that's the $25,000 car.
现在有州政府的激励措施。我知道主要的一个是$7,500的联邦税收抵免。他们技术上也可以把州政府的激励措施包括在内。我想有几个州有提供几千美元的激励，比如加利福尼亚州，显然还有科罗拉多州。所以他们理论上可以把这些也算进去。他们也可以把节省的油费包括在内，这是网站的设计配置器所做的。所以请记住这些事情。希望他们只是在谈论$7,500的抵免，这可能意味着车辆的起价在$37,000左右。不过，我认为这并不是那个$25,000的车型。
I shared my thoughts on this before. I don't think there's a $25,000 car that's really still happening. I think it's the cybercab and they're all in on that. And I don't think it's going to come with a steering wheel. I don't think it's going to come with pedals as a variant. I think Elon, you know, kind of made that clear on this call. So nevertheless, with those more affordable models, which we'll see what those are, if those are just updates to the three in the Y or if there's, you know, some other model as well, something like 20 to 30% next year, it sounded like though, they also feel like FSD and the progress there is going to contribute to overall vehicle demand as that improves. It seemed like that was a part of, I think Lars was talking at that point. I think that's one of the levers they view as a demand lever is just that improving.
我之前已经分享过我的看法。我不认为还会有一款售价25,000美元的车真的会面世。我觉得重点在于“cybercab”，他们全力投入这一领域。而且我认为这款车不会有方向盘，也不会有脚踏板的版本。我觉得Elon在这次会议中已经很明确地表达了这一点。不过，我们可能会看到更实惠的车型，不知道它们是现有的Model 3和Model Y的更新版本，还是全新的车型。明年可能会有20%到30%的增长。此外，他们也认为随着完全自动驾驶（FSD）的进步，这会提升整体车辆的需求。似乎Lars在会上也有提到这一点，认为这是提升需求的一个重要因素。
So we'll see about that. And then interest rates, obviously that was mentioned later on on the call, if those continue to come down, which that's obviously the expectation, I think we're already seeing the benefit of that here in the third quarter and early in the fourth quarter. If that trend continues, then you know, that's definitely a win for affordability and for margins and things like that. All right, so volume production of cybercab, we talked about that one, no surprise, but aiming for at least two million per year, maybe four million per year ultimately. And multiple factories obviously required to produce that kind of volume. And I don't think people fully appreciate like how crazy this is. If you think about these vehicles, even getting, you know, let's say, I think you want to said like five times the utility, let's just say two times or three times the utility of what a normal car would get. If you get that up to, you know, three, four million cars a year, you're talking about really the utility of like 10 million cars per year, which is obviously a very significant portion of the auto market at that point.
好的，我们来看看这个问题。然后是利率问题，显然在电话会议后面提到了这一点，如果利率继续下降，这是显然的预期，我认为我们已经在第三季度和第四季度初看到了这种好处。如果这一趋势继续下去，那对可负担性和利润率等方面无疑是个好消息。
好的，关于Cybercab的量产，我们已经讨论过了，这不是什么意外，但目标是每年至少生产200万辆，也许最终达到每年400万辆。显然，需要多家工厂来实现这样的产量。我不认为人们完全意识到这有多疯狂。如果你考虑这些车辆，甚至达到——比如说，我想你会说获得五倍于普通汽车的实用性，就算是达到两到三倍的实用性。如果每年的产量达到三、四百万辆，那相当于每年1000万辆汽车的实用性，这在那时显然是汽车市场上非常显著的一部分。
So it's, it starts to get pretty big, pretty fast. One cybercab starts, if of course autonomy is, you know, achieves level four, level five at that point, which is a very big question mark, but they shared some of the details on that a little bit more numbers than we have seen. So we'll talk about those in a second. Now all that sort of stuff, 20 to 30% growth, cybercab volume, Elon said these are just as best guesses. So important to keep that in mind. 4680 rapidly approaching the point where it's the most competitive cost competitive battery cell fully landed cost being considered. So net of incentives they mentioned and import duties. So you know, if you're bringing in cells from China, obviously, there's going to be some additional costs to doing that, both from shipping and duty perspective.
所以事情开始变得很快，而且规模相当大。一旦网络出租车启动，如果自动驾驶技术能够实现四级或五级，那将是一个很大的问号，不过他们分享了一些比我们之前看到的更详细的数据，我们稍后会谈到这些。现在，所有这些事情，20%到30%的增长，网络出租车的数量增加，埃隆提到这些只是最佳的猜测，因此需要牢记这一点。4680电池即将成为最具成本竞争力的电池，综合考虑所有费用成本。提到了网罗激励措施和进口关税的问题。因此，从中国进口电池显然会增加一些额外的费用，包括运输和关税方面的成本。
And then not being eligible for certain incentives. So those are some pretty significant differences, but they all matter, they all affect the business. So it's good to hear that. Sounds like there's a number of things that they're continuing to make progress on. I think the optimism in general, like the tone around 4680 has definitely been consistently improving over the last couple of quarters versus, you know, maybe a year ago or so, there was probably not quite as much optimism in how it was spoken about. So I'm definitely excited with the 4680 updates that we've had. And it seems like it's already in a pretty good spot, which is good because that means Tesla can continue to invest more and more into it, get more economies of scale, continue to make improvements as they make those further investments, things like that. It's a very positive sort of feedback loop on the 4680s. And I think we're kind of hitting that point, which is, which is really great.
然后就无法享受某些激励措施。这些是一些相当显著的差异，但它们都很重要，都会影响业务。所以听到这些进展的消息很不错。听起来他们在很多方面都在继续取得进展。总体来看，特别是关于4680电池的讨论，过去几个季度乐观情绪肯定有所提升，相较于大约一年前，当时的谈论不那么乐观。所以我对我们收到的4680电池的更新感到兴奋。而且它似乎已经处于不错的位置，这很好，因为这意味着特斯拉可以继续加大投入，获得更大的规模经济，在进一步投资的过程中持续改进，这样的事情为4680电池创造了一个非常积极的反馈循环。我觉得我们正在达到这个点，这真的很好。
Still continue to buy cells from others. Yeah, Elon's always said that. Some significant improvement week by week and the number of miles per intervention for FSD. It's important to note that they always talk about critical interventions to, I think we're getting to a point that I think Tesla's kind of talked about this in a few different ways. But getting to the point where maybe one of the bigger challenges is filtering out, all right, this person disengaged because, you know, the speed wasn't fast enough or maybe it's a minor routing thing or something like that, or like just wanting to be in a different lane, something that you would optimize for but isn't necessarily safety critical. I think that's probably the majority of interventions, at least me personally, that's probably how my interventions work.
仍然继续从其他公司购买电池。是的，Elon一直都是这么说的。在FSD（全自动驾驶）方面，每周在干预次数上的逐步显著改善值得注意。需要强调的是，他们经常谈论的是关键性干预。我认为我们正在达到一个阶段，特斯拉以多种方式提到过这个问题。这个阶段的一个大挑战可能是区分这些情况：比如说，有人中断自动驾驶是因为速度不够快，或者是小的路线问题，或者只是想换车道。这些都属于你可能需要优化的，但是未必涉及安全关键的情况。我认为这些可能占据了大部分的干预，至少对我个人来说，我的干预经历大多如此。
In just terms of like percentage breakdown. So I don't know how Tesla kind of categorizes those when they're getting that data. I assume it has something to do with kind of how shadow mode would work and seeing, you know, the deviation between shadow mode and, you know, what FSD would have done versus what the person then did after engagement. I assume there's some sort of process in there to kind of check and filter around those types of things. But however they're categorizing the data, however they're looking at it, it's clearly been making them very confident in the progress and the trajectory over the last year. And they continue to be very excited about version 13, continuing to reiterate that that should be a five to six X improvement, which is already on top of 100 X improvement in terms of critical disengagements that they have seen so far this year. So that's kind of the first time that we've really gotten that sort of specific insight into that specific metric that Tesla looks at. I would love it if they would publish that, but it does make things a little bit tricky because then, you know, everyone's going to want to see this very smooth progress. And if you see a period where it doesn't, doesn't happen, then people become negative.
就百分比分类而言，我不太清楚特斯拉在获取这些数据时是如何分类的。我想这可能与阴影模式的工作方式有关，观察阴影模式与全自动驾驶 (FSD) 所采取的行动之间的差异，以及驾驶员在介入后的实际操作。我猜他们有某种流程来检查和过滤这类情况。无论他们是如何分类和分析数据的，显然这种方法让他们对过去一年的进展和发展趋势充满信心。他们对第13版的期待也很高，多次重申那应该会带来五到六倍的改进，而这已经是在今年截至目前看到的关键脱离减少了100倍的基础上进行的改进。这算是我们第一次真正了解到特斯拉关注的特定指标的具体情况。我很希望他们能公布这些数据，但这可能会变得有些棘手，因为大家都会期待进展平稳顺利。如果在某个阶段没有看到这样的进展，人们就可能会持消极态度。
So it's the exact same thing that we talked about at the beginning here, public versus private company, you know, public versus private data. There's no, there's not a lot of benefit to publishing that, especially when Tesla's not capital constrained. They don't need to raise money. They don't really need to like sell investors. So might as well just keep that data internal. I'm fine with that. I would love to see it, but I also understand. So it's nice that they're seeing significant improvements. I mean, I don't know if 100 X matches my experience, but like I said, 12.3.6 massive step forward. You know, I would say just like anecdotally for my own experience has to have been like 10 X. I also moved right kind of during that period. So it's, you know, I'm not in my same area doing my same testing and things like that. So it's kind of a different environment which changes perception as well.
这跟我们一开始讨论的完全一样，涉及到公共公司与私人公司、公共数据与私有数据的问题。发布这些数据的好处不多，尤其是当特斯拉并不缺乏资金时，他们不需要去筹集资金，也不需要吸引投资者注意。因此，不如就将这些数据保留在公司内部。我对此没有意见。虽然我很想看到这些数据，但我也能理解这个决定。听说他们取得了显著的进步，这很好。我不知道100倍的改进是否和我的体验一致，不过就像我说的，版本12.3.6是一次巨大的进步。从我个人的体验来看，大概进步了10倍左右。在此期间我还搬了家，所以不在原来的区域进行同样的测试，因此环境的变化也可能影响我的感受。
Anyway, year over year improvement expected to be at least three orders of magnitude, which is crazy. So, you know, in the ballpark of 1000 X improvements in the disengagement or in the critical disengagement rate. And then maybe the most important thing is that they said they expect that same trend to continue next year. If that means they expect another three times or three order of magnitude improvement next year, then you're talking about 1000 on 1000, which is like a million times better. So that kind of gives you, you know, even if they don't get to that, then I think that's why they're confident is like, if they're anywhere close, it should be good. So it gives some insight into why they're why they're so confident.
总之，与去年相比，预计将至少提高三个数量级，这真是不可思议。也就是说，在减少干预或关键干预率方面，大约会有1000倍的提升。而且可能最重要的是，他们表示预计这种趋势明年也会继续。如果这意味着他们预计明年再提高三个数量级，那就相当于再提升1000倍，总共提高一百万倍。这就是为什么他们如此有信心的原因，即使达不到那个目标，只要能接近，也已经非常不错了。所以这也提供了一些关于他们信心来源的洞察。
Now obviously that is something that still needs to happen and any number of things could cause that to not happen. But that's what they're seeing. And as Asherk talked about on previous calls, there's a number of different categories that they've seen the technology scale on in in a trajectory that they could kind of model and expect. They've already seen that unfold. So if they then have clear visibility to those things continuing to be able to scale in the same way, then the logic following that is that if those continue to all scale in the same way, then hopefully the end product can continue to scale in the same way as well.
显然，这仍然是需要实现的目标，尽管有很多因素可能导致其未能实现。但这正是他们目前观察到的情况。正如Asherk在之前的电话会议中提到的，他们发现技术在多个不同的类别中以某种可以模拟和预期的轨迹进行扩展。他们已经看到这种扩展的发生。因此，如果他们能够清楚地看到这些情况继续以同样的方式扩展，那么逻辑上就是，如果这些继续以同样的方式扩展，那么希望最终产品也能够以同样的方式继续扩展。
So that's the reason that they're feeling so confident in these improvements. So we'll look forward to version 13. I do think just even as a tester, you know, at a certain point, it does become difficult to understand what the progress is because the disengagements are rare. I don't think we're there yet. But I also don't think that we're super far away from that starting to actually become even difficult for testers to kind of like make assessments of scaling continues should cross intervention threshold next year. And then importantly, they continue like they don't see that as kind of a ceiling. They expect continued rapid improvements kind of after crossing that threshold, which is again, another reason for renewed confidence.
所以，这就是他们对这些改进感到如此自信的原因。因此，我们期待第13版的到来。即使作为测试人员，我确实认为在某个时候，很难理解进展情况，因为干预已很少。我认为我们还没到那个程度，但我也不认为我们离测试人员难以做出评估的情况非常远。如果规模扩展继续下去，预计明年将跨过干预阈值。而且重要的是，他们并不认为这就是发展的上限。他们预计在跨过该阈值后会继续快速改进，这也是信心再次增强的另一个原因。
You know, the further out you go, the more uncertainty there is. But if they feel like, yeah, it's just this this path that next year we hit at, you know, Q2, Q3 timeframe, but then we continue to go and it 1000 Xs again or something like that, then it really does feel like it's just a matter of time. And if you don't hit it in Q2, then you hit it in Q3 or Q4, you know, things like that. So it's projections projections don't always equal reality. But hopefully that gives some insight on, you know, at least how I think they're thinking about it.
你知道，越往远处看，不确定性就越大。但如果他们觉得，明年我们将在第二季度或第三季度达到这个目标，然后继续增长，比如再增加1000倍， 那么这真的只是时间问题。而如果没能在第二季度达成目标，那么可能会在第三季度或第四季度达成。预测并不总是等于现实，但希望这至少能让你了解一下我认为他们的想法。
All right, so do you want to expose more people to FSD? So obviously, they just did a trial of I think 12 dot 5 dot six, I don't know, it's a little confusing with the version numbers how they are right now. But yeah, I think they should keep doing that, especially if they are feeling like they're data constrained and not compute constrained so much. It's hard to know if more cars does help with the specific issues that they're having of finding those critical disengagements and things like that, but it would seem like it would. So yeah, free trial away might as well right take advantage of the fleet. So I think that's great. They also talked about significant improvement and to take great. Again, this is something that they don't publish would be nice to see. But I understand again, why not, especially because it is improving from a very low base. But nice to see that.
好的，那么你们是不是想让更多人使用FSD（全自动驾驶）呢？显然，他们只是刚刚试用了我认为是12.5.6版，我有点搞不清楚目前的版本号。不过，我觉得他们应该继续这样做，特别是如果他们觉得是数据限制而非计算能力限制的话。很难说增加车辆是否能帮助解决他们在寻找关键脱离和类似问题时遇到的具体问题，但看起来应该是有帮助的。所以，免费试用可能是个好主意，可以利用整个车队的优势。我觉得这很棒。他们还谈到了显著改善，这真不错。尽管这不是他们会公开的数据，但看到这种良好趋势还是很高兴，尤其是因为它是从一个很低的起点开始改善的。不过我也理解为什么他们不公布这些数据。
And interesting that even the, you know, the October 10th event, even that improved the take rate, which, you know, nothing changed with FSD that day is just people becoming aware. So shout out to advertising right there because that's why you do advertising that's the hope of the effect of advertising is increasing the awareness of these things. So hopefully that's an eye opener, but probably not. Which it's fine. At the end of the day, ultimately, what matters more is getting the FSD, getting a Robotax, getting the cybercat, as long as the cash flow is there to do that, then these incremental improvements in margin in the interim period, like they're nice. They help support the stock. They help improve sentiment. More money is always great for the business. But it doesn't really change things all that much. I don't think so. Well, I'd like to see it sometimes it probably gets a little bit too much attention versus the other things that really should be the focus.
有趣的是，即使是10月10日的活动也提高了采纳率。那天FSD没有发生任何改变，只是因为人们对它的了解增加了。所以这要归功于广告，这正是你做广告的原因——希望广告能起到这种效果，增加人们对这些事物的认知。希望这能带来一些启发，但可能不会。不过也没关系，最终更重要的是能获取FSD、机器人出租车、网络猫等，只要有现金流支持这些项目，那么这种期间的利润率渐进改善虽然好，但其实并没有那么大的变化。我不这么认为。有时候我希望这些问题能吸引更多关注，而不是相对于那些本应成为焦点的其他事情。
Actually, smart summon. I haven't really used it in. I don't I don't drive a whole lot. So I haven't really had a really need to use it yet. Unfortunately, I've just kind of tested it out. It was fine for me. You know, other people have way more more experience with it than I do. So can't comment too much on it. But obviously it gives a taste of what things are going to be. And hopefully we kind of see like actually smart summon, merge into FSD. And it's kind of like a limited operating domain right now with speed limit restrictions, geographic restrictions on like not public roads and things like that. Hopefully you just kind of see these things like merge together and all of a sudden it's, you know, fully autonomous everywhere. But if they do improve speed limits and things like that, just like slowly incrementally increasing the operational driving domain of, you know, autonomous driving, which is existing in the smart summon feature. This one was very interesting.
其实，"智能召唤"功能我并没有真正用过，因为我开车不多，所以还没真正需要使用它。不幸的是，我只是简单测试了一下，对我来说还可以。你知道，其他人用这个功能的经验比我多得多，所以我也不好多评论。不过显然，这功能给我们展示了未来的样子。希望我们能看到 "智能召唤" 功能与全自动驾驶(FSD)结合起来。现在它的操作范围还比较有限，比如速度限制、地理限制，不允许在公共道路上使用等。希望未来这些功能能够整合到一起，实现全面的自动驾驶。如果他们能慢慢提升速度限制等条件，逐步扩大智能召唤功能中的自动驾驶操作范围，那就非常有趣了。
So probably no one really thought that this was happening, I don't think, but Tesla's already using the Tesla network, like a Tesla network app on employees phones to do ride sharing in the Bay Area. So if you're, I don't know, again, what the, what the region is, but it sounds like for employees, you can just use the Tesla network on your phone, call the vehicle. There's a safety driver in there at this point, obviously. But it shows that Tesla is working on, you know, all the fundamental pieces of, of having this be an app, sometimes hear from people that Tesla can't compete with Uber or Lyft because they don't have these things in place, but they do like they are in place. I never thought they were difficult to copy in the first place, but it's I think probably very exciting to people to hear that this is something that Tesla actually has now that does work. And it's more about just growing in and expanding it. So again, ultimately it's, it's really about FSD, but it's, it is nice to see that, you know, Tesla's already starting to do these things. And, you know, when it is employees, and it is sort of a safety driver role, they, that allows them to get really good data on, you know, how effective this is, how safe, like what are the disengagements for those specific use cases in those specific areas and start to build that data, build that confidence and, and things like that.
所以，我想可能没有人真正认为这是正在发生的事情，但特斯拉已经在湾区使用特斯拉网络，就像一个安装在员工手机上的特斯拉网络应用程序，用于拼车服务。如果你在某个地区，虽然我不确定具体是哪一个地区，但听起来员工可以通过手机上的特斯拉网络应用召唤车辆。当然，目前车内有一位安全员。但是，这表明特斯拉正在努力构建所有必要的基础设施，以将这个服务创建为一个应用程序。有人常说特斯拉无法与Uber或Lyft竞争，因为他们没有这些系统，但其实它们已经在运行了。我从来没有觉得这些东西很难模仿，但我认为听到特斯拉现在拥有并可以实际运作这些东西，对人们来说可能是非常令人兴奋的。现在的重点在于如何扩展和发展这个系统。归根结底，这一切都是为了完全自动驾驶（FSD），但看到特斯拉已经开始这些尝试确实令人欣慰。当服务对象是员工，并且有安全员的角色时，他们能够收集到关于这个系统的有效性、安全性、以及在这些特定区域和特定使用情况下的脱离数据。这些数据为他们建立信心和改进系统奠定了基础。
I'm actually really excited to hear that. I expect to roll out ride hailing in California and Texas next year. So again, I don't think Tesla like cares too much about, okay, we're doing Tesla network and we have like drivers like Uber or Lyft would. I just, I know, Arc spend big on that for many years. I've never cared about that because I don't think Tesla cares about that. And kind of their answer reflected that right like the answer was basically we'll do whatever we need to from a regulatory perspective to collect whatever data we need to do. But it's not the goal. The goal is to get autonomous vehicles, driverless vehicles. That's the, that's the singular focus. They don't really care about like building up some like Tesla network network effect before that, because when something's autonomous and electric, the costs are going to be so low that why would you choose anything else? Plus, like we talked about before earnings came out today, it's so much, it's going to be so such a much more premium experience to not have to get in a car with a stranger and have them drive you around and you don't know how good of a driver they are and maybe you don't want to talk to them and like all these sort of things versus getting in like your own little personal movie theater. It's, you know, it's going to be quiet. It's going to have good entertainment. It's going to have a good sound system, all these sort of things, and it's going to drive safely.
我听到这个消息其实挺兴奋的。我计划明年在加利福尼亚和德克萨斯推出网约车服务。但是，我不认为特斯拉会像Uber或Lyft那样太在意这个事情。我知道Arc在这方面投入很多年，但我从不关心，因为我觉得特斯拉也不太关心这个。特斯拉的回答其实也反映了这一点，他们的重点是从法规角度做必要的事情，以收集所需的数据。但这并不是他们的目标，特斯拉的目标是实现自动驾驶、无人驾驶汽车。这是他们唯一的关注点。他们并不在意是否先建立一个类似特斯拉网络的网络效应，因为一旦车辆实现自动化和电动化，成本会非常低，大家根本没理由选其他东西。此外，就像我们讨论的那样，与其坐进一辆你不认识的人的车，不知道对方开车技术如何，也许还不想与他们交谈，不如坐进一辆像私人电影院一样的车。车内安静，有好的娱乐系统和音响设施，而且行驶非常安全。
You know, once it gets to a certain point, there's just literally no reason to unless you're like very social to try to get in a new burr lift once this exists. So, I don't think adoption rate is going to be the challenge with those sort of things. So anyway, back to this point though, I'm excited to see that they, you know, initially are going to roll this out and it probably will have a safety driver at first, but it sounds like that would just be because of, you know, showing the data from a regulatory perspective to be able to move that remove that driver as fast as they can. You know, if there's no other path, then obviously that's the path that Tesla has to follow was kind of the might take away on that. Yeah, so obviously profound and inflection point for the company, safety report.
你知道，一旦到了某个点，除非你非常社交，否则几乎没有理由去尝试新的缆车，因为这些已经够用了。所以我不认为接受率会是这类事情的挑战。总之，回到这个问题，我很高兴看到他们最初会推出这个系统，可能一开始会配备安全驾驶员，但听起来那只是为了从监管角度展示数据，以便尽快取消那个驾驶员。如果没有其他途径，那么显然这就是特斯拉必须遵循的道路。我认为这是对公司的一个重要转折点和安全报告。
So, again, something we would have talked about in Tesla daily, but if you guys didn't see the safety report, the best way to look at that is sort of the year over year progress. There can be some seasonality in the data there, but like we've looked at in the past, the trend overall on, you know, accidents when FSD is engaged or when autopilot is engaged continues to be, you know, very strongly positive. And now that we're many years into it, like you can definitely see significant improvement in that time period.
再次说一下，这原本是我们会在特斯拉日报中讨论的话题。 如果你们没有看到特斯拉的安全报告，最好的方法是查看它的年度进展情况。数据中可能会存在一些季节性变化，但就像我们过去所观察到的那样，当启用FSD（全自动驾驶）或自动驾驶时，整体上事故的趋势仍然非常积极。 现在几年过去了，我们可以明显看到这段时间的显著改进。
So the best way to look at that is year over year or rolling 12 month or, you know, maybe even rolling like six or nine months, but continues to show progress. So that's exciting to see. Uh, expanding training capacity. Yep. So we know that not constraints. We talked about that. Having a giant fleet is very helpful in that regard, obviously. The optimist hands. We talked about that a little bit earlier today. I thought Elon was going to say something about like the timing, but I think he got distracted on his train of thought and like went a different direction.
要理解这一点，最好的方法是按年对比，或采用滚动的12个月，甚至滚动6或9个月的方式，但要持续显示出进展。这是令人兴奋的。扩大培训能力，没错，我们知道这不是限制因素。我们之前谈到过这一点，拥有一支庞大的车队在这方面显然非常有帮助。我们今天早些时候也谈到过乐观主义者。我本以为埃隆会提到一些时间上的事情，但我觉得他被自己的思路打断了，走到了另一个方向。
It sounded like he was going to say when that next version of Optimus was going to be, but I don't think he ever did, unfortunately. Um, yeah, other humanoid companies, I'm, I mean, I don't know, personally, not like super excited about. I think I agree very strongly with what, with what Elon said here. Um, Tesla has the AI capability. They have the production capability. I just, I think it would be very difficult to compete with Tesla on this. Um, so 200 packs a week, 40, you go about our run rates. Sounds like Shanghai will scale similarly to how laythrups scaled with starting to bring a, you know, kind of one line on, which could do 20 gigawatt hours.
他听起来好像要说出下一版Optimus的发布时间，但遗憾的是，我觉得他并没有这样做。嗯，是的，对于其他人形机器人公司，我个人并不是特别兴奋。我非常同意Elon在这方面所说的话。特斯拉拥有人工智能的能力，他们也拥有生产能力。我认为要在这方面与特斯拉竞争会非常困难。每周200个电池组，40个，按照我们的生产速度来说。听起来上海的扩展方式将类似于Laythrup的扩展，开始引入一条生产线，可以实现20吉瓦时的产能。
And then I'm sure they'll expand and do a second line and 40 gigawatt hours. Uh, Elon saying it won't be long before we're shipping, you know, a hundred gigawatt hours per year. In the last, you know, where I get, I guess like a 30 gig of watt hour per year run rate right now, uh, over the last two quarters roughly. So. Yeah, another tripling won't be long. Um, ultimately growing to multiple terawatt hours per year. So yeah, I think, you know, once you get Shanghai, way through fully on board, it seems, seems to me like they could probably even improve this beyond 40 gigawatt hours at, at laythrough up, which if they do that, then that could probably even happen at Shanghai too.
然后，我相信他们会扩展并启动第二条生产线，实现40吉瓦时的产能。呃，埃隆表示，很快我们每年就能出货100吉瓦时。目前来看，在过去的两个季度中，我们的生产速率大约是每年30吉瓦时。所以，再增加三倍的产能应该不会太久。最终，我们的目标是每年增长到多个太瓦时。因此，我认为一旦整个上海工厂全面投入运作，他们可能不仅能达到40吉瓦时，还能在此基础上进一步提升产能。如果他们做到这一点，那么上海工厂也有可能实现类似的提升。
Maybe those two alone can do a hundred gigawatt hours. Um, and you know, maybe you start to see that in, in 2026 even. So, um, yeah, very exciting on the energy business and obviously very strong margins there so far. All right, some more energy stuff. I think it's important to reiterate that Tesla's focused on building the future of these things. Others are focused on your term trends. Again, it's like that public versus private company split, like Tesla should and kind of does operate as, as though they are a private company. That just happens to be public.
也许仅仅这两个部分就能达到100吉瓦时。而且，可能你会在2026年看到这个成绩。所以，能源业务非常令人兴奋，并且目前利润率也非常强劲。好了，说点其他能源方面的事情。我认为要重申的是，特斯拉专注于构建未来的这些事物。其他人则更关注短期趋势。就像上市公司和私人公司的区别，特斯拉应该并且实际上确实像一家私人公司那样运作，只不过它恰巧是上市公司。
So it's just, you know, worth keeping those things in mind. It's about the long term vision. That's what Tesla's focused on. You'll want to get in thinking Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world. Financial stuff, we kind of went through all that. Awareness gap, playing to make that awareness gap smaller. I don't know if that was specific to ASP or if it was, I think it was probably about the financing things. So stating the margins in the fourth quarter will likely be challenging. So important to note that, that could temper some of the enthusiasm. And again, we'll have to see what the margins look like, excluding the FSD recognition this quarter, which we don't have yet.
所以，你知道，值得记住这些事情。重点在于长远的愿景，这是特斯拉关注的核心。你会希望以特斯拉成为全球最有价值的公司为目标进行投资。财务方面，我们差不多都说过了。意识差距，努力在缩小这一差距。不太确定那是否具体与ASP有关，可能是与融资有关。因此，指出第四季度的利润率可能会有挑战。所以需要注意，这可能会降低一些热情。此外，我们还需要看看此次季度排除FSD认定后的利润率表现，目前我们还没有这些数据。
Interest rates, fluctuation in energy, margin fluctuation in energy as well. Backlog, quarter over quarter in energy, which is great to hear since they are delivering such high volumes. I didn't really fully catch the automotive cost of goods sold comments, but it sounded like the comments were just directionally. They're going to continue to try to drive those down, which obviously makes sense, but it's difficult.
利率、能源波动，以及能源领域的利润波动。能源的积压订单逐季增加，这非常令人欣喜，因为他们正在交付如此高的数量。我没有完全听懂关于汽车销售成本的评论，但看起来评论的方向很明确：他们将继续努力降低这些成本，这显然是合理的，但也很困难。
CapEx, all right, so here we get into the questions. So still on track to deliver more affordable model next year. So playing for lower cost vehicles next year, Robotaxia is the marriage of EV and autonomy, but obviously that's not next year. And then I didn't catch the full comment, but he said something about something being sub 30,000 with incentives. If anyone has like what language you use, pop that in the chat, I'll try to keep an eye on it. But otherwise, I have to go back and listen to that part, which just starts at the beginning of the investor questions.
好的，CapEx，我们进入问题环节。关于明年推出更实惠的车型，计划打造成本更低的车辆。Robotaxia 是电动车和自动驾驶的结合，但显然那不是明年的计划。我没完全听清楚他说了什么，但提到某个东西在补贴后低于3万。如果有人知道他用了什么语言，请在聊天中告诉我，我会关注这个问题。不然的话，我需要回去重新听一下，这部分内容就在投资者提问的开头。
But yeah, to me, that makes me think something will come in sort of like that 37, you know, 35, 37,000 price range. I think that's the plan for vehicles until Robotaxia. And again, I think Robotaxia, no steering wheel, no pedals. So I don't think we're going to see like a $25,000 car that is just a normal car that you can buy and go drive around.
好的，这让我觉得将会有价格在35,000到37,000美元左右的车辆出现。我认为这是在实现自动出租车（Robotaxi）之前的计划。另外，我认为自动出租车是没有方向盘和踏板的。因此，我不认为我们将会看到一辆售价25,000美元的普通汽车，你可以购买并自由驾驶。
Very quickly that the future is autonomous. So again, reiterating that right after this question of like, are there more affordable models next year? Well, Robotaxia is coming. So it doesn't really matter too much. WeMO 1000 cars, Tesla makes 35,000 cars a week. So we said a lot of great things about just the manufacturing process of cybercat and the production design, which you know, you look at the vehicle, especially like the interior like, yeah, this is like, it's just kind of like any other car. It's simple, not that it, you know, it does look a little bit different, but fundamentally looks like a car.
很快，未来将是自动化的。所以，再次重申一下，在有人问到明年会有更实惠的车型后，自动驾驶出租车就要来了，因此这并不是特别重要。比如WeMO有1000辆车，而特斯拉每周生产35000辆车。我们谈了很多关于赛博卡车生产制造过程和设计的一些优点，你看这辆车，尤其是内部，就会觉得这跟其他车差不多。虽然看起来有些不同，但从根本上说还是像一辆普通的车。
And that doesn't really give you the insight that that Tesla has into how it came to look like that and be produced and manufactured in that way. So, you know, they're thinking that this is somewhere on the order of like five times better. I don't know if that means versus like a Tesla benchmark or just other companies where maybe Tesla feels like they're already like two times better. So this is more like a two and a half times from that. That's probably more of what I would think.
这并不能让你真正了解特斯拉是如何变成现在这个样子，并以那种方式生产制造的。因此，他们认为在某种程度上，这要好上五倍。我不确定这是否是相对于特斯拉的基准，还是相对于其他公司而言，也许特斯拉觉得他们已经比别人好两倍。所以这可能相当于在这个基础上又提升了两倍半。这可能更符合我的想法。
But yeah, it's exciting to hear their optimism on on the manufacturing process, which I think is probably an extension of what we heard for the master plan part three when they kind of broke down the unbox process and things like that. So, you know, that's where Elon said, yeah, that would then roughly cost $25,000. He could be talking about the cost to produce it, which then yeah, you could sell it for 30,000 less than 30,000, which that mass matches up with his comments during Robot's Axie Day.
当然，很高兴听到他们对制造过程的乐观态度。我觉得这可能是对他们在第三部分的总体规划中提到的内容的进一步延伸，当时他们详细介绍了“无包装”工艺等内容。所以，你知道，这就是埃隆提到制造成本大约为25,000美元的地方。他可能在说生产成本，然后的确可以将售价定在30,000美元以下，这与他在机器人“Axie Day”活动上的评论相符。
So I think that makes sense. And that's again, why I don't expect anything in that price range that, you know, has a steering wheel or things like that, because that would then, you know, add to the cost. He said won't have a steering wheel, won't have pedals, but you could buy one. Server center stuff. Yeah, I mean, obviously Tesla's always working on that.
所以我觉得这是有道理的。这也是为什么我不指望在那个价格范围内会有方向盘之类的东西，因为那会增加成本。他说不会有方向盘，也不会有踏板，但你可以买一个。服务中心的东西。是的，我的意思是，显然特斯拉一直在研究这些。
Semi continue to be super excited about semi. It's just, you know, one of those things where there's going to be years long development process. And at some point, it's going to start to contribute to the business, similar to, you know, what we've seen for cyber truck. But really excited about semi incorporating accent grok. Nothing too interesting on that point.
半导体继续让人感到非常兴奋。你知道的，这是一个需要多年开发过程的领域。在某个时刻，它将开始为业务做出贡献，类似于我们在网络卡车上看到的情况。不过，对于半导体结合使用Accent Grok，我们确实感到非常期待。在这方面没有太多有趣的东西。
Um, unsupervised FSD. So we kind of already talked about that stuff. Yeah, what's the plan for 2025 kind of already talked about that stuff as well. Roadster, they're close to finalizing the design. I thought they had maybe already finalized it or had said this before. So it doesn't seem like any major update there. Unfortunately for those interested in Roadster, probably still be a bit.
嗯，无监督全自动驾驶。我们之前已经讨论过这个话题。是的，关于2025年的计划，我们也已经谈过。至于Roadster，他们接近完成设计。我原以为他们可能已经完成设计，或者以前说过这一点。所以看来在这方面没有什么重大更新。对于那些对Roadster感兴趣的人来说，可能还需要再等等。
Um, robot taxi rollout. So, you know, very much acknowledged that it's going to continue to make, you know, the first versions as we get them updated are going to ship on hardware for now. Um, then back into hardware three as they can optimize those newer versions. Uh, so it sounds like that'll continue. Not, not too surprising as we started to see that, you know, in the last few months.
嗯，关于机器人出租车的推广。你知道的，我们非常清楚这一进程将会继续。目前的首批版本在推出时依然会使用现有的硬件。之后，他们会在硬件三上进行优化，以便于更新更高版本。所以看起来这个情况会持续。考虑到过去几个月中我们已经开始看到这一趋势，这并不令人惊讶。
Um, I think the question was, unfortunately, the question was kind of long. So it was multiple questions rolled into one, which for those of you that remember when I, I didn't, you know, submitted my say questions and went through them and things like that. You got to be very specific and, and pointed with your questions. Otherwise they're going to answer something else and not answer what you actually asked. So, uh, just reiterating that feedback.
嗯，我认为问题有点长，不太好理解。其实里面是多个问题合在一起的。对于那些记得我当时提交问题并进行筛选的人来说，你得非常明确和具体地提出问题。否则，他们可能会回答一些其他的东西，而不是你真正想问的。所以，我只是想重申一下这一点。
But in terms of hardware three versus hardware four, um, again, they said they're not exactly sure how that'll look. They're just going to have to wait and see how it comes together. Um, they did say that a hardware three can't achieve, you know, level five autonomous driving or whatever. However, Tesla wants to benchmark that, that they would upgrade people, uh, with hardware three for free. Now previously, I thought they had said that there's not really a path to do that. Hardware three to hardware four upgrade. Maybe they just mean they'll like offer some discounts on a trade in vehicle. Like that would seem like it would be the more probably easier and cost effective path. Um, but who knows, maybe, maybe I'm wrong on that. Maybe they can upgrade it. Maybe they only need to upgrade a part of it, whatever. Tesla will figure that out.
关于硬件三和硬件四，他们表示目前还不太确定具体会是什么样的，只能等着看它们如何发展。他们提到，硬件三无法实现像五级自动驾驶这样的水平。不过，特斯拉会为拥有硬件三的用户免费升级。之前我以为他们说过，硬件三升级到硬件四没有明确的路径。也许他们指的是会在旧车置换时提供一些折扣，这样可能更简单且更具成本效益。但谁知道呢，也许我错了，他们或许能升级，也许只需更换一部分部件，不管怎样，特斯拉会找到解决方法。
The point that I added here in parentheses is just that Tesla's going to try really, really, really hard to not have to do that because it would be very expensive. So they'll keep trying it could, you know, they could spend years trying to make it work for hardware three. So just keep that in mind before getting too excited about it. I agree. Tesla should do this. I think it's the right thing. I think, you know, upgrading those vehicles then allows them to contribute revenue to the test network as well. So there is some financial incentive there to do it for Tesla as well, but just try to keep that in mind that they, they'll probably try to do that for a long time before, um, sort of admitting defeat and allowing those upgrades, um, excess compute capacity.
我在括号中添加的观点就是，特斯拉会非常非常努力地避免那样做，因为成本会很高。所以他们会一直尝试，也许会花上好几年去使硬件三代奏效。所以在对此事过于兴奋之前，请记住这一点。我同意，特斯拉应该这样做，我认为这是正确的。升级这些车辆可以让它们为测试网络贡献收入，所以从财务方面来看，特斯拉也有一些动机去这样做。但请记住，他们可能会努力尝试很长一段时间，然后才会承认失败并允许这些升级，超出计算能力。
I don't think we really got a good answer on that. You know, simulation. Um, yeah, I don't, I don't think they really specifically answered that, which again, I was part of, you know, I think multiple questions were asked. So they kind of just picked out other things. Um, safety drivers. Yeah, state by state, nothing new there. And then Adam Jones's question. So I've shared my thoughts on, on XA and Tesla before. So probably don't need to spend much time on that. But yeah, overall, I think just, uh, exciting to see, you know, positive reaction.
我觉得我们没有得到一个很好的答案，你知道的，关于模拟方面。嗯，对，他们好像没有具体回答这个问题。我们问了很多问题，他们挑选了其他问题回答。关于安全驾驶员，不同州的情况没有什么新变化。然后是Adam Jones的问题，我之前已经分享过我对XA和特斯拉的看法，所以可能不需要花太多时间在这上面。不过总体来说，我认为看到积极的反应还是令人兴奋的。
It's, I think it's kind of been some beat downs after the last, the last few earnings reports. So nice to have a reminder that it's not always that way. And, um, I think it's, you know, it's a combination of the, the positive gross margin that we saw, which led to a beat on the bottom line and people being more optimistic about what Tesla has in terms of flexibility on pricing and, uh, continuing to drive that volume up, uh, the reiteration of more affordable models next year. Um, I think that's, you know, positive, cyber truck, positive gross margin, also a positive, obviously tremendous progress with, with Tesla energy. They put, posted a good number with good margins. Um, and services and other also contributing positively to.
我觉得在过去的几次收益报告后，形势一直有点低迷。所以，这次能收到一个积极的提醒，表明情况并不总是那么糟糕，还是挺不错的。我认为这主要是因为我们看到毛利率的提升，这带来了出乎意料的利润增长，而且人们对特斯拉在定价灵活性方面的能力更加乐观，并继续推动销量上升。此外，还重申了明年将推出更实惠车型的计划。我觉得这些都是积极的因素，像是Cybertruck的正面消息、出色的毛利率和特斯拉能源方面取得的巨大进展也都是好消息。他们发布了不错的数字和良好的利润率，并且服务和其他业务也有积极贡献。
So just a lot of fundamentally good things in the, in the earnings report itself. Um, and then, you know, that positivity, I think bleeds through to a lot of the commentary that we heard today, uh, which some of which were, you know, again, reiterating the more affordable vehicles, the, you know, 2026 being volume production for the, for the cyber cab versus before maybe people thought, all right, maybe that started production. Maybe that actually slips to 2027. That's just projections. We'll see. It's a long ways away still, but, um, for that to be, you know, the volume production target is definitely encouraging, uh, just in terms of, you know, the time, uh, that it's going to take to get there. So I think a lot of good things in that regard, uh, a little bit more detail on kind of like the rollout plan, hearing that they're actually using the Tesla network, I think is very exciting and encouraging to a lot of people. Um, yeah. So I think a lot of really good things here today, uh, in terms of more negative things, I don't know, I'm sure there are some they're, they're not coming to mind as, as much right now.
在收益报告中，确实有很多基本面不错的内容。这种乐观情绪也体现在我们今天听到的一些评论中。其中有一些提到更实惠的车型，还有人重申了2026年是网络巡航车（Cyber Cab）大规模生产的年份。在此之前，可能有人认为生产会在2027年开始，这只是预测而已，还有很长的时间，但设定这种量产目标确实令人鼓舞，至少在时间安排上是如此。所以在这方面有很多积极的信息。另外，关于推广计划的细节更多了，比如他们正在使用特斯拉网络，这让很多人感到兴奋和鼓舞。总体来说，今天有很多积极的消息。至于负面的内容，目前我想不太起来，也许有，但现在没有特别明显的印象。
Um, I think overall pretty positive. I think the biggest question that I've got is just the, you know, how much the FSD revenue recognition contributed. Cause obviously that's a more of a one time thing that would be, uh, backed out in terms of projections for the future. So we should get that information in the 10Q in the next few days. So definitely keep it out for that. But, uh, that's it. So if you want to check out the earnings report recap again, the link for that's in the description. Um, but always appreciate getting back and chatting Tesla with everybody here for a minute. Uh, appreciate all the super chats. It's always, you know, I'm so appreciative of that. Um, for you guys supporting and, you know, at the latest, we'll definitely be back for next quarter. I think some people maybe didn't get the message, but my plan is to continue to do these quarterly, at least.
嗯，我觉得整体来看还是挺积极的。我现在最大的问题就是，全自动驾驶（FSD）的收入确认对业绩有多大贡献。显然，这更像是一种一次性的情况，在未来的预测中应该被剔除。接下来的几天，我们应该会在10Q报告中获得这方面的信息。所以，肯定要注意这一点。就这样了。如果你想再看看财报回顾，链接就在视频说明中。我总是很乐意能和大家聊聊特斯拉，感谢所有的超级留言，对大家的支持心存感激。最晚我们会在下个季度回来，我想有些人可能没收到这个消息，但我的计划是至少继续每个季度都做这样的直播。
So, uh, I'll be here, you know, next quarter for the key four earnings. Um, otherwise things are, things are great. Everything's really solid with first principles group. Uh, I think my decision to have to upgrade to hardware for here is they're making me more convinced with the commentary here. So, um, that's probably going to happen. So if you want to use my referral link, uh, and if you're making a similar decision to that's also in the description. Appreciate that. But, um, thank you all. We'll wrap it up. But, um, yeah, it's been, it's been a fun day and good to see everybody.
所以，我会在下个季度出席四季度的财报会议。除此之外，一切都很好，First Principles Group 的情况非常稳固。我决定在这里升级硬件，他们的评论让我更加确信这个决定，所以这很可能会发生。如果你也在做类似的决定，可以使用我提供的推荐链接，链接在说明里。感谢大家。我们就到这里结束吧。今天过得很愉快，很高兴见到大家。