Dealership Expert: Best and Worst Franchises, What's Next For Car Market

Stylianis has some excellent products. I mean, the Jeep Wrangler, if you get in that, it's a lot more than it used to be, but they also are putting more on the vehicle. So they're not undesirable cars, the Ram trucks, et cetera. Some of their old sedans, the muscle cars, still sell pretty well. So it's not the consumers that turn their nose up but those vehicles don't want to buy them. They're just mispriced. And if Stylianis doesn't want to provide incentives, then what they should simply do is cut the wholesale price to the dealer. Don't charge 75,000 for a Wrangler. Charge 68. But I'm excited to sit down for another session with Alan Haig, the founder and partner of Haig Partners, a leading buy sell advisory firm specializing in car dealerships. With a remarkable track record of over $11 billion in transactions, Alan shares his insights on why dealerships are selling at such a rapid pace and reveals a top performing and most challenging franchises in the market right now.

Stylianis 有一些很优秀的产品。比如说 Jeep Wrangler，要是你现在坐进去，会发现它已经比以前好了很多，而且他们在车上付出了更多。因此，这些车并不是没人喜欢的，像 Ram 卡车等都是一样的。即使是他们的一些老款轿车，比如肌肉车，销量也还不错。所以问题并不是消费者不喜欢这些车。而是这些车的定价有些问题。如果 Stylianis 不想提供优惠，那么他们只需要降低经销商的批发价就行了。不要给 Wrangler 定价 75,000 美元，定价 68,000 美元就好。我很期待与 Haig Partners 的创始人兼合伙人 Alan Haig 进行另一次会谈。Haig Partners 是一家专注于汽车经销商买卖事务的领先顾问公司，拥有超过 110 亿美元的交易记录。Alan 将分享他对为什么经销商交易如此迅速的见解，并揭示目前市场中表现最佳和最具挑战性的品牌。

A big thank you to our sponsors for making today's episode possible, lot links, car dealership guy, industry job board, and Haig partners. And now let's get into the show. Alan Haig back on the CDG podcast. Alan, welcome. Good to be with you again. Good to have you on in person this time. That's right. We're upgrading over here. One of our most anticipated episodes always because you really deliver the goods. We're going to be talking about car market, M&A market, dealership by sell business, valuations, what brands are rising, what brands are dropping. I mean, there's always a lot of movement going on. So I'm really pumped about this. I think just to kick us off, give us an overview of the current car market, right? Where are we at today? Very broadly speaking, right? And where have we come from in the last couple of years?

非常感谢我们今天节目的赞助商：Lot Links、Car Dealership Guy、Industry Job Board 和 Haig Partners。现在让我们进入节目。艾伦·海格又回到CDG播客了。艾伦，欢迎。很高兴再次与你在一起。这次很高兴能亲临现场。没错，我们在不断升级中。你一直是我们最期待的嘉宾之一，因为你总能带来干货。今天我们将讨论汽车市场、并购市场、经销商买卖业务、估值、哪些品牌在崛起、哪些品牌在下滑。这个领域总是变动频繁，所以我对此非常兴奋。我想作为开场，你能否给我们一个当前汽车市场的概述？总体来说，我们现在处于什么阶段？过去几年我们经历了什么？

With the car market shifting quickly, the pandemic was a major disruptor for all of us, but the car market in particular had a vicious downturn, I would say the beginning of 2020 when pandemic hit and a lot of businesses were forced to be closed. And then people governments realized that dealerships retailers to use Mr. Doll's term were essential businesses. People needed vehicles for transportation. They had to get to the hospital, had to get to school, they had to get to their place of work. So the car market was severely impact in the first half of 2020. And then that led to a big disruption in production. And so there weren't enough vehicles to go around at the same time where there was a massive influx of cash and the consumers home from a lot of government support to people.

随着汽车市场迅速变化，疫情对我们所有人都是一个巨大冲击，尤其是对汽车市场来说，疫情初期的2020年开始时出现了激烈的下滑。疫情爆发时，许多企业被迫关闭。接着，人们和政府意识到汽车经销商——用Mr. Doll的术语来说——是基本必要的企业。人们需要车辆进行交通运输，他们需要去医院、去学校、去工作地点。因此，汽车市场在2020年上半年受到了严重影响，导致生产出现重大中断。同时，市场上汽车数量不足，而消费者由于政府的大量支持获得了大量现金流入。

So you had this mismatch between supply and demand where there was enormous demand for vehicles, but very little supply. That led to a big spike in the prices of vehicles and the profits that retailers are making from these vehicles as well as the OEMs. From the second half of 2020, really to the end of 2023, were epic boom times in the automotive industry for retailers and for the OEMs, the manufacturers. That's now moderating because production has begun to catch up with demand. And some of that is just they're producing more vehicles, but it's also because demand has started to come down.

因此，你会看到供需之间的不匹配：汽车需求非常旺盛，但供应却很少。这导致了汽车价格和零售商以及原始设备制造商（OEM）利润的巨大增长。从2020年下半年到2023年底，零售商和制造商都经历了汽车行业的辉煌增长时期。现在这种情况正在缓和，因为生产已经开始赶上需求。一方面是因为他们生产了更多的汽车，另一方面也是因为需求开始下降。

Vehicles have gotten so expensive, the consumers are feeling pressures from inflation, et cetera, their wages are not keeping up as much. So a lot of customers are having a hard of time buying a vehicle today, just having a hard time affording it. So now we're seeing a shift in the market from where it was sort of a seller's market, if you will. So retailers could charge a lot for their vehicles because they didn't have very many for sale. So they had to match the price with the demand. And now that the demand is less, retailers are having to become a little bit more motivated in selling these vehicles, which means the prices are coming down on new units, the prices are coming down on used units. So it's becoming a little bit more affordable for consumers. But at the same time, the prices and profits that retailers are enjoying are still about double what they were before the pandemic hit.

车辆的价格已经变得非常昂贵，消费者感受到通货膨胀等压力，他们的工资却没有相应增长。因此，许多顾客现在很难购买车辆，甚至很难负担得起。所以我们看到市场发生了变化，从原本的卖方市场转变了。零售商过去可以把车卖得很贵，因为他们手头上的车不多，所以必须根据需求定价。而现在由于需求减少，零售商不得不更加积极销售这些车辆，这意味着新车和二手车的价格都在下降，变得对消费者来说更负担得起。但与此同时，零售商现在享受的价格和利润仍然是疫情前的两倍左右。

Wow. That's so double from 2019. 2019 is the profits out of the dealership today. That's right. Before the pandemic hit, and we have a lot of data here that we've been pulling together for our second quarter pay report that we create the tracks trends and auto retail and how they impact dealership values. And so every quarter we crunch the numbers and we look at what's happening. And we've seen a significant deterioration and the profits for new cars being sold at dealerships. Is this across every brand or are you seeing this across?

哇。这比2019年多了一倍。2019年的利润是今天经销商的收益。没错，在疫情来临之前，我们收集了大量数据，用于编写第二季度的支付报告，该报告追踪汽车零售的趋势及其对经销商价值的影响。因此，每个季度我们都会分析数据，看看发生了什么，我们发现新车销售在经销商的利润出现了显著下降。这是所有品牌都出现的情况，还是只在某些品牌中看到的？

Specific brands or where you seen this? It's really across all brands, some brands more than others. So we can get into that in a minute in terms of how different brands are performing today. But to give you an example of the change of how profits for dealers have changed on a new vehicle. Now this is a profit before they pay for advertising, before they pay for the salesman's compensation, they pay for the inventory, storage, etc. But before the pandemic hit, the public-traded retailers were making about $1,900 in gross profit per car they sold. That was new. That spiked to almost $6,000 in 2022. So they really had a lot of demand and not a lot of supply.

具体品牌或你在哪见到的？这真的涉及到了所有品牌，有些品牌比其他品牌更明显。我们可以稍后详细讨论一下不同品牌目前的表现。不过，我先给你举个例子，说明经销商的新车利润是如何变化的。这是指他们在支付广告费、销售人员工资、库存和仓储费用之前的利润。在疫情爆发之前，上市零售商每卖一辆新车大约能赚1900美元的毛利润。到了2022年，这一数字飙升到了接近6000美元。所以，真的有很高的需求和很少的供应。

So their profits more than tripled during that time. Fast forward to today in the second quarter of 2024, the average gross profit for new vehicles is about 3,500. So down from almost 6,000, that's roughly a 40% decline, but still up from 1900 before the pandemic. So they're still making about twice as much per car as they were before. It's just not four times as much car as we had at the very peak of the market for retailers. Where do you see the industry heading over the next 12 months?

所以，他们在那段时间内的利润增长了三倍多。快进到今天，2024年的第二季度，新车的平均毛利润大约为3500美元。这比之前近6000美元的水平下降了约40%，但仍高于疫情前的1900美元。也就是说，他们每辆车的利润仍然是疫情前的两倍，只是没有像市场高峰时那样的四倍利润。您认为接下来的12个月内，这个行业会走向何方？

This has been a very rapid shift where profits have come down very quickly as supply has rebounded and this affordability has become a bigger challenge in our industry. So you speak with so many dealers, you're on the front line, you are working with buyers and sellers of dealerships that selling the most prestigious and everyday dealerships in the country. You have to have a great pulse on this. So what's your outlook right now?

这一变化非常迅速，利润迅速下降，因为供应已经反弹，而业界在经济承受能力方面面临更大挑战。您与许多经销商交流，是一线工作人员，与全国最知名和日常的汽车经销商的买家和卖家打交道。您对市场的情况应该非常了解。那么，您现在的看法是什么呢？

So now we get into what I'll call the micro level where some prices are gonna decline at some dealerships faster than others. So today Toyota and Honda have very desirable products. They still are having some challenges producing enough units to meet demand. So that means that the prices that are being charged for those cars are still pretty stout and the retailers are making very healthy margins at Toyota and Honda. And because there's so much demand and the vehicles are priced fairly, they're not that many cars sitting on lots that are owned by Honda and Toyota retailers.

那么现在我们进入到我称之为微观层面的讨论，一些经销商的价格下降速度会比其他经销商快一些。现在，丰田和本田的产品非常受欢迎。他们在生产足够的汽车以满足需求方面仍面临一些挑战。这意味着这些汽车的价格仍然相当高，经销商从丰田和本田汽车中获得了非常不错的利润。由于需求量很大，而且这些汽车的定价合理，丰田和本田经销商的库存里并没有太多滞销的车辆。

Now, if you go across a street and you look at a Stellantis dealership, that's Chrysler Dodge G-RAM, they've got about 150 days supply of new units sitting on the ground. That's a terrible issue for retailers and for Stellantis, the manufacturer. They have far too many cars on the ground given the demand they have for them. And it was really, sorry to say, it was a problem of their own, they did it to themselves, Stellantis. They pushed the prices of those vehicles up so high, so much faster than inflation, that eventually they outran their customers' ability to pay for them.

现在，如果你走到街对面，看到一家Stellantis的经销店，也就是克莱斯勒、道奇、G-RAM的经销店，你会发现他们大约有150天的库存车型。这对于零售商和Stellantis（这家制造商）来说是个大问题。他们有太多的汽车滞留在库存中，而需求却没有那么高。很遗憾地说，这是他们自己造成的问题。Stellantis把这些车辆的价格抬得过高，远远超过了通货膨胀的速度，以至于最终超过了顾客的支付能力。

So when you raise the price faster than people's wages are increasing, you're gonna have that mismatch between supply and demand. And if you don't cut production and you shove all those units onto your retailers, which is what's happened, you're gonna have this big massive lump of unsold inventory. And that stuff begins to age, it starts to smell bad, consumers can tell, you go to a dealership, you see a 2023 model that's still new, it's been sitting there for over a year, something's wrong with it. How are you gonna get somebody to buy that vehicle?

当你提高价格的速度超过人们工资增长的速度时，供需之间就会出现不匹配。如果你不减产，并且把所有的产品都压给零售商，就像现在发生的情况一样，你就会有一大堆卖不出去的库存。这些东西会逐渐变旧，开始质量变差，消费者一看就能看出来。你去汽车经销商那里看到一辆2023年的新车，它已经在那里放了一年多，显然不对劲。你怎么让人买这辆车呢？

You're gonna have to discount it significantly. So the profits per vehicle at Stellantis dealerships is gonna be a lot lower than it is at a Toyota store or a Lexa store, for instance, where inventory is pretty fresh. You know, and the CEO, or at least I get messages from lots of people who work at Stellantis corporate, and they're telling me that, the CEO is very against adding more incentives. He has just said, hey, this is a, and I quote, they said it's like a sales and marketing problem, which I don't even know what that means, cause to me incentives are marketing or in a way, but nonetheless, it seems like there's internal friction over there, which wouldn't surprise me given, how poorly the brand is performing right now. Given your experience, what happens next?

你需要大幅打折。因此，Stellantis经销商每辆车的利润将比丰田或雷克萨斯的店要低得多，因为那里的库存相对新鲜。你知道的，我收到很多在Stellantis总部工作的人给我的信息，他们告诉我，CEO非常反对增加更多的激励措施。他只是说，嘿，这是一个——原话是——销售和营销问题，我甚至不知道那是什么意思，因为对我来说，激励措施也是一种营销。但不管怎样，看起来内部有矛盾，这并不让我惊讶，鉴于这个品牌现在的表现非常糟糕。根据你的经验，接下来会发生什么？

Like, is it just Stellantis dealers and Stellantis taking a bath for the next 12 months before they rebound? Cause you know, the auto market is very cyclical. Like what happens next in the industry for Stellantis dealers, as an example? They're both gonna suffer for a little bit, and Stellantis has some excellent products. I mean, the Jeep Wrangler, if you get in that, it's a lot more than it used to be, but they also are putting more on the vehicle. So it's not, they're not undesirable cars, the Ram trucks, et cetera. Some of their old sedans, the muscle cars, still sell pretty well.

就是说，接下来12个月内会不会只是Stellantis的经销商和Stellantis本身在承受亏损，然后再反弹呢？因为你知道，汽车市场非常周期性。那么，接下来Stellantis的经销商会怎么样？他们都要受些苦，而且Stellantis也有一些非常优秀的产品。比如Jeep Wrangler，比以前更加豪华，但他们也在车上加了更多配置。所以，这些车并不是不受欢迎，还有Ram卡车等等。他们的一些老款轿车和肌肉车卖得也不错。

So it's not the consumers are turning their nose up but those vehicles don't wanna buy them. They're just mispriced. And if Stellantis doesn't wanna provide incentives, then what they should simply do is cut the wholesale price of the dealer. You know, don't charge 75,000 for a Wrangler, charge 68. And that will increase sales and begin to, it doesn't do anything for the existing, you know, something around, they're gonna have to put incentives on those because I think a lot of Stellantis dealers have just stopped ordering vehicles cause they have to clear out the existing cars that they have.

所以问题不在于消费者不愿意购买这些车辆，而是这些车辆本身没有人愿意买。它们的定价不合理。如果Stellantis不想提供优惠，那么他们应该做的就是简单地降低给经销商的批发价格。比如说，不要对一辆牧马人收费75,000美元，收68,000美元就好。这样可以增加销售量。虽然这对现有库存车辆没什么帮助，他们可能需要对这些车辆提供一些优惠，因为我认为很多Stellantis的经销商已经停止订购新车了，他们得先清理掉现有的库存。

What other brands right now are you seeing performing poorly in the market? Nissan's having a hard time. It's the same issue. Why, what's going on there? Well, I think there, it's not so much that they've priced their vehicles so high, they don't think they've outpaced inflation. And fortunately, Nissan still has some products that are affordable, you know, to consumers. They still have cars you could buy that are in the 20s. But a lot of their products are just a little bit too expensive and they're not special enough to get someone to come by Nissan Altima as opposed to Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla, for instance.

现在还有哪些品牌在市场上表现得不太好？日产正在经历困难，主要问题是相同的。那是什么原因呢？我认为情况并不是因为他们的车辆价格太高，不是超出了通货膨胀。幸运的是，日产还有一些对消费者来说比较实惠的产品，他们还有价格在20万左右的车。但是他们的很多产品有点太贵了，而且不够特别，无法吸引消费者选择日产Altima，而不是本田Civic或者丰田Corolla。

So they also have aging inventory, slowing sales, et cetera. And I think that Nissan will fix it. And both these brands that I mentioned, Stellantis and Nissan are probably two brands that we've seen most over the years have these boom and bust cycles. And it wasn't too long ago that Nissan dealers are doing much better than they are today. So I feel like both brands can fix it. It's really a function of, if you don't have really desirable product today, you're gonna have to incentivize a consumer to take it. If you don't have a desirable product, you're charging a lot for it. It doesn't take an economist to tell you that it ain't gonna sell very well.

所以，他们也有滞销库存、销售放缓等问题。我认为日产会解决这些问题。我提到的这两个品牌，Stellantis和日产，可能是我们这些年来看到的最经常经历繁荣和衰退周期的品牌。不久之前，日产经销商的情况还比现在好很多。所以，我觉得这两个品牌都能解决问题。关键在于，如果你今天没有很有吸引力的产品，就得给消费者提供一些激励措施。如果没有吸引力的产品，还定高价，任何一个经济学家都会告诉你，它不会卖得很好。

And that's what we're seeing with both those brands today. Again, given your proximity to the dealer because you are, you know, you're on the front lines of these buy cells and the dealerships, are you seeing like when I hear Nissan is performing poorly, Stellantis, I think deal, right? Is this a time for someone potentially to want to, you know, buy into one of those franchise or at least look for an opportunity? Or if I'm a consumer, I might say, oh, if they're performing poorly, that means they may put some deals on the horizon.

我们今天在这两个品牌上看到的情况就是如此。考虑到你与经销商的距离，因为你知道，你就在这些买卖和经销商的一线现场，当我听到日产表现不佳，Stellantis也不尽如人意时，我会认为这是一个机会，对吗？这是别人可能想要买入其中一个品牌，或者至少寻找机会的时候吗？或者如果我是一个消费者，我可能会想，哦，如果他们表现不佳，那意味着他们可能会推出一些优惠。

So I'm curious to know from your perspective, is this, are we at that point yet? Are you seeing interest in buying these franchises from the dealership community? Or are we still at the point where it's, you know, people are, hey, I want to get rid of this franchise. I'm not interested where we at. I'm not interested in the cycle. Well, so from the consumer standpoint, there are some deals that I'm seeing out there. I mean, we've been involved in selling some of these brands and when we go to closing, sometimes the inventory is there and it's marked down significantly from the original sticker price.

所以我很好奇，从你的角度来看，我们现在处于哪个阶段？经销商群体对购买这些品牌的兴趣如何？还是说我们依然处在大家想要摆脱这些品牌的阶段？有没有人对这个周期感兴趣？从消费者的角度来看，我确实看到有些交易。我们参与了一些品牌的销售，当我们接近交易完成时，有时候库存还在，并且价格相对于原始标价大幅下降。

So what have you seen? Yeah. So what have you seen? Well, there's a Chrysler, I guess it's the Pacifica many van to have, which is a hybrid. I think it's something like $24,000 off the original sticker. They're just so dead otherwise. The question is like, what's the actual price though? So they've jacked it up 49% in 2019. Yeah. So, you know, when it's around 40, maybe that's the clearing price. 67, it wasn't going to sell. So I think from the consumer standpoint, we're going to start to see some quote deals on those products. Now from a dealership buyer, somebody's interested in buying a store, we are seeing a shift in the market.

那么你看到了什么？ 嗯，你看到了什么？ 嗯，有一辆克莱斯勒，我猜是大捷龙迷你厢式车，它是混合动力的。我记得它比原价便宜了大概2.4万美元，因为如果不降价的话确实很难卖出去。问题是，现在实际售价是多少？它们在2019年涨价了49%。 是的，所以，当售价接近4万美元时，可能就是它的市场清算价格。而在6.7万美元时，显然是卖不出去的。所以我认为从消费者的角度来看，我们会开始看到这些产品的所谓“优惠”。而从经销商买家的角度来看，如果有人有兴趣买一家店的话，我们可以看到市场在发生变化。

So the last 18 months or a firm, we were fortunate in that we were able to represent owners of dealerships and we were able to set record high transaction values for our clients that own BMW stores. That was the state in South and down in Miami. We set a record high value for Stylianist dealership. That was in Lake Norman in North Carolina. And that was about a year and a half ago. So it's amazing to go from record setting to troubled in just 18 months. But whether what drove that, like was that driven by higher sales and profitability? Or has the brands multiples on, you know, even I expanded, like what's driving that? Well, so the record high prices were set because the profits per store skyrocketed.

在过去的18个月里，我们公司非常幸运，能够为一些汽车经销商的所有者提供服务，并帮助拥有宝马店的客户达成了创纪录的交易价值。这些记录是在南部和迈阿密的州份取得的。我们为位于北卡罗来纳州Lake Norman的Stylianist经销商也创造了一个纪录。这大约是一年半前的事情了。令人惊讶的是，从创纪录到陷入困境仅仅经过了18个月。那么，是什么推动了这种变化？是因为销售和利润的提高，还是品牌溢价的增加？主要推动因素是每家门店的利润飙升，所以才创造了这些创纪录的高价格。

Okay. So if I look at the profits per store before the pandemic, the average publicly traded dealership was making about $2 million per store. Okay. And then during the pandemic, that reached as high as $6.7 million per store. So more than tripled, right? So if we were selling a store in 2022, 2023, the very beginning of 2024, that's when you had a combination of record high profits per store, but also dealership buyers who had two, four, six, eight, 20, 50 dealerships already, they were generating massive amounts of excess cash. More than they could use for paying taxes or buying yachts or whatever. So reinvesting on additional dealerships? Yes. They had a massive amount of cash sitting on their balance sheet. It wasn't earning them really anything back then. And so what were they gonna do with it?

好的。那么，如果我看一下疫情前每家店的利润，平均每家上市经销店的利润大约为200万美元。然后在疫情期间，这一利润高达670万美元。所以利润增加了三倍多，对吧？因此，如果我们在2022年、2023年或者2024年初卖出一家店，那时每家店的利润创下了历史新高，同时，那些拥有两家、四家、六家、八家、二十家、五十家经销店的买家们产生了大量的现金流，超出了他们用来缴税、买游艇或其他用途的需求。所以他们会选择再投资到更多的经销店上？是的。他们的资产负债表上有大量现金，当时这些现金并没有带来什么收益。所以他们会怎么处理这些现金呢？

So a lot of them chose to buy dealerships. Pay more for dealerships, right? And if you were a special dealership, you know, we sold Al Henderson Toyota down in South Florida. It was the number two store in the country. That brought a record high value for Toyota store. Earlier this year, we sold Hollywood Keyo, which is the number two key a store, I believe it was in the country. That's at a record high price for for Keyo. So that combination of really high profits, along with buyers that were flushed with cash, their pockets were stuffed with a lot of profits. That was a very productive combination that led to these record setting prices.

于是，许多人选择购买经销权。付更多钱来买经销权，对吧？如果你拥有的是一家特别的经销店，比如我们在南佛罗里达州卖掉的Al Henderson Toyota，那可是全国排名第二的店。那家店创下了丰田店的最高记录。今年早些时候，我们卖掉了Hollywood Keyo，这家店是全国排名第二的起亚店。我相信它创下了起亚店的最高价格记录。高利润加上买家手中充裕的资金，他们的口袋里装满了利润。这种组合非常有效，导致了这些创纪录的价格。

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本节目由Lot Links赞助。各位经销商，当你们看向自己的车场时，是否看到风险？每天，几乎一半的库存都有过时风险。这相当于每辆车平均损失1500美元的毛利。但精明的经销商可以避免风险并追回这笔钱。介绍一下Lot Links Sentinel，这是首款也是唯一一款完全致力于预测和减少库存风险的人工智能管理解决方案。凭借十年的机器学习优化，Lot Links Sentinel允许经销商为每个独立的车辆识别号码（VIN）制定单独的策略，确保它们更快、更有利可图地售出。这样你就能提前7到10天卖出车辆，保护你的利润。不要再接受不必要的风险，开始掌控你的库存吧。体验Lot Links效果，请访问lotlinks.com/sentinel了解更多信息，或点击下方的节目注释链接。

How do you explain, because the market has undoubtedly slowed. I spoke with a top 25 dealer and they told me, they're pretty still and it's heavy. I'll disclose that, but they said, hey, it's brutal right now. They used words that I don't remember them ever using these words. So how do you explain that by sales, right? Dealership's being bought and sold in the industry. Consolidation is only down 15% year over year, which to me doesn't seem like a lot. Well, and if you could actually table set and give us the numbers here, a little context, right? But it seems like the market is still pretty strong in light of all these affordability in light of interest rates being at 20 plus year highs. How do you reconcile that? It is still a really good market if you are somebody who's thinking about exiting and it's still a good market for buyers because it can still get a higher return on buying a car dealership than they can just about any other asset.

怎么解释这个问题呢，因为毫无疑问市场已经放缓了。我和一家前25名的经销商谈过，他们告诉我，现在状况非常静止且沉重。我会透露这一点，他们说现在情况非常残酷。他们用了我以前从未听过的词汇。那么你如何通过销售来解释这一点呢？汽车行业中的经销商们来回买卖，合并只比去年下降了15%，对我来说这并不算太多。如果你可以提供一些数据和背景信息给我们，就更好了。但是即便在利率达到20多年来最高水平的情况下，市场似乎仍然相当稳健。你怎么解释这一点？对于那些考虑退出市场的人来说，现在仍是一个不错的市场，对买家来说也是如此，因为购买汽车经销店仍能获得比几乎任何其他资产更高的回报。

I'll come back to that in a minute. But before the pandemic hit for roughly 10 years before, the number of rooftops that were being purchased and sold in this country, number of dealerships, was about 300 or 350 dealerships per year were trading from one owner to the other. During the pandemic. This was before the pandemic, 350 dealerships per year. That's right. During the pandemic, that number exploded. In 2021, we saw over 700 rooftops trade hands. And that's more than double. There was the number of people were cashing out and others were just expanding reinvesting profits. Yes. So the people cashing out were saying, whoa, I'm only 62, but the value of my business has more than doubled. So I'm out. I just advanced the age of my retirement. I can go to the beach. I can go start my charitable charities, whatever else I wanna do. I now just advanced my retirement. I got several years of my life because of COVID, ironically. Yeah. That number has stayed elevated. The number of stores being sold because dealers had a lot of confidence in the business model.

我等一下再回来讨论这个问题。但是在疫情爆发前，大约十年的时间里，这个国家每年大约有300到350家经销商的店铺在交易，从一个所有者转移到另一个所有者。这是疫情爆发前的数据，每年大约350家店铺。没错。在疫情期间，这个数字猛增。2021年，我们看到有超过700家店铺易主，这比之前多了一倍多。很多人开始套现，而另一些人则是通过再投资利润来扩张。是的，那些套现的人会说，哇，我才62岁，但我的生意价值已经翻了一倍多。所以我决定退出，提前退休。我可以去海边，可以开始我的慈善事业，做任何我想做的事。因为疫情，我反而提前了几年的退休时间。令人感叹的是，这个数字一直保持在高水平，因为经销商对商业模式有很高的信心。

So it wasn't just COVID. I think it was also that certain other risks in the industry began to dissipate in the minds of viewership buyers. So for instance, autonomous vehicles, some people were afraid that retailers would go away because everyone would just press their button and have an Uber come and take them. And people realized like, oh, during COVID, it's kind of nice to have your own vehicle. Right? I don't wanna be in a car with someone else or a car that someone else has been in. There are a lot of other risks that sort of have gone away in the minds of dealership buyers. So they became more confident in this business model. So they wanted more, not less. So when a dealership came up in their market, they're willing to bid aggressively to get it. And I joke, I feel like for some retailers, it's gonna be a long time to realize this is a kid. When I was playing Monopoly, I would sort of skip over the yellow properties because I wanted to get the green property. So I wouldn't spend on the yellow properties.

所以，这不仅仅是因为疫情。我认为，某些其他行业风险在观众心目中开始消退也是一个因素。比如，无人驾驶汽车，曾有人担心这会导致零售商消失，因为大家只需按一下按钮，Uber就会来接他们。但人们在疫情期间意识到，拥有自己的车其实挺好的，对吧？我不想和别人共用一辆车或坐在别人坐过的车里。观众心目中的许多其他风险也逐渐消失了。所以他们对这个商业模式变得更加有信心，需求反而增加了。所以当市场上出现了新车行，他们会积极出价争取。我开玩笑地说，有些零售商可能还要很长时间才能意识到这一点。小时候玩大富翁时，我总是跳过黄色的地块，因为我想买绿色的地块，所以我不会在黄色地块上花钱。

And then I realized really the way to win Monopoly is whatever you land on, what do you do? You buy it. You buy it. Okay, I was Chris Little Lerner Monopoly. But I think that's a little, that's not absolutely true in the dealership world. But I think for some people, they said, hey, if a BMW store comes up in my market, it probably won't come up again for sale for 20 years. If a Subaru store or have my eye on forever comes up in my market, same thing. I've got, if I don't buy this one now, I may never have a second opportunity. So if they have the cash, they have the confidence and now the opportunity's coming because the supply of stores coming into the market was increasing because the value was higher.

然后我意识到，其实要赢得大富翁游戏的方法就是，无论你停在什么位置，你要做什么？你要买下它。你要买下它。好吧，我是小玩家克里斯在学习大富翁。但我认为在汽车经销商的世界里，这不完全适用。然而，有些人会觉得，如果我的市场里出现了一家BMW的店，那它可能20年内不会再出售。如果一直盯着的Subaru店在我的市场出现了，也是同样的情况。如果我现在不买下它，可能再也没有机会了。所以，如果他们有现金，有信心，现在正好有机会，因为进入市场的店铺供应增加了，而且价值更高了。

Again, it's kind of the economists love this industry because the law of supply and demand is powerful and it's evident here. That was one reason why so many more stores have been sold the last three years than ever before. It's just the value that went up so much people go to afford to sell them and retire. The industry is grappling with affordability crisis, insurance prices are going up, uncertainty in the future, disintermediation, direct to consumer, electric vehicles, internet, AI, blah, blah, blah, blah. You're speaking again with many dealers on a daily basis. Is there fear within the dealer community? Is that relating to some people to wanting to sell or is it more natural succession? What do you view as the driver of sales and specifically is fear being a driver or playing a major role in people's desire to sell nowadays? I think the main reason that people choose to sell is usually age. They get to the point where they think, I have been successful in this business, I've gotten a lot out of it, I've put a lot into it, but there are other things that I wanna do with my time or my money or I just need to get liquid to prepare for what may happen to me.

再次，经济学家们喜欢这个行业，因为供需法则在这里非常强大且显而易见。这也是为什么过去三年里有如此多的商店被出售的一个原因。价值上涨得如此之快，人们能够卖掉商店并退休。这个行业正面临一场可负担性危机，保险价格上涨、未来不确定性、去中介化、直销给消费者、电动汽车、互联网、人工智能等问题层出不穷。您每天都在与许多经销商交流。经销商社区中是否存在恐惧？这是否使得一些人想要出售，还是更多出于自然的继任？您认为销售的驱动因素是什么？具体来说，恐惧在现在人们想要出售的愿望中是否起到了主要作用？我认为人们选择出售的主要原因通常是年龄。他们到了这样一个阶段，会觉得：“我在这个行业里已经很成功了，也从中获得了很多，同时也投入了不少，但我还想把时间或金钱花在其他事情上，或者我需要变现来应对可能发生的情况。”

So my family is taken care of. Because these dealerships, dealerships I've heard of are sticky assets. They're hard to get and they're hard to get rid of. So if I owned a group of stores and I died tomorrow, to sell those businesses could take six months, could take six years, maybe my heirs are fighting amongst each other for them. I'm using some ugly situations in families who own stores. So it's not easier to own a pile of cash than it is a pile of car dealerships. So age, I think is the main reason. There are some concerns that people have about the future of auto retail.

所以我要确保家人得到保障。因为这些经销商，我听说是难以处理的资产。它们难以获取，也难以处理。如果我拥有一组店铺，而明天我突然去世了，出售这些业务可能需要六个月，也可能需要六年，或者我的继承人们为了这些店铺争斗不休。我看到一些拥有店铺的家庭中的糟糕情景。因此，拥有一堆现金比拥有一堆汽车经销商容易得多。所以年龄，我认为是主要原因。人们对汽车零售的未来有一些担忧。

And the family say, hey, we have 100% of our network tied up in these buildings and these franchises. And maybe this net worth is worth 10 million, maybe it's worth 100 million, maybe it's worth a billion. And we've seen all those in our business. And maybe in the future, they'll be worth more than they are right now, but the odds are, they're gonna be worth less. Because we're already seeing the numbers come down for dealership values. So I think some of them are saying, I can't predict the future, but I know the present is pretty good.

家人们说，我们的全部资产都投入到了这些建筑和特许经营店里。也许这些资产现在值1000万，也许值1亿，甚至可能值10亿。在我们的业务中，这些情况我们都见过。未来这些资产可能会增值，但更有可能会贬值。因为我们已经看到经销店的价值在下降。所以我认为有些人会说，我无法预测未来，但我知道目前的状况还不错。

So let's not take the risk. Let's liquidate these dealerships and invest it in a diversified portfolio of real estate, stocks, bonds, private equity, venture capital, whatever they want. And are those sellers, are they specific franchises? Or is it all over the map? It's all over. I mean, I think some people are selling businesses today that are a little bit distressed. We're seeing larger dealership groups divest some struggling franchises. And it's driven by the franchise, or is it driven by management or anything else? It's a little bit of both, and they're related.

所以，我们不要冒这个险。让我们把这些汽车经销商清算掉，把资金投资到多元化的资产组合中，比如房地产、股票、债券、私募股权、风险投资等他们想要的领域。这些卖家，他们是否都是特定的品牌经销商？还是分布非常广泛？分布很广泛。我认为，目前有些人正在出售一些有点困境的业务。我们看到一些大型经销商集团在出售一些经营不善的品牌经销店。这是由品牌推动的，还是由管理层或其他因素推动的呢？两者都有点，而且它们是相关的。

So years ago, I was at Audination twice in my career. The first time I was there in the boom time, we bought, I don't even know how many stores within the first two or three years of that company to exist in hundreds. Didn't really have a plan for what to do with them. The second time I was there, I was over a four year period. We bought 14 stores and we sold 56. And some of the 56 were ones that I had bought. The first time I was there. And so was that just the brands I had declined? Or maybe we hadn't done such a good job managing them? And I think what almost every public company CEO will tell you is that larger dealership groups do better with larger dealerships. The bigger the store is, the easier it is to run. Kind of scaled all that. It's kind of a scale, but it's also just, it's not as dependent upon the talent of the general manager. If I have a store that's selling 300 new units a month and somebody steps out, I probably have a talented assistant manager or sales manager that can step into that world. More redundancy, more systems.

多年前，我在Audination工作过两次。第一次是在公司的繁荣时期，我们在头两三年内收购了很多店铺，数量庞大，甚至我自己都数不过来。那时我们并没有明确的管理计划。第二次在那里的时候，我待了四年期间，我们收购了14家店铺，同时卖掉了56家，其中有些还是我第一次购入的。那么，是这些品牌不行了吗？还是我们管理不善呢？我认为几乎每个上市公司的CEO都会告诉你，大型经销集团在管理大店铺方面会更得心应手。店铺越大，管理起来越容易。这不仅仅是规模问题，更重要的是，它不那么依赖于总经理的个人能力。如果我有一家店每月能卖出300辆新车，即便经理离职，我可能还有一位有能力的助理经理或销售经理能顶上来。多重冗余系统和机制使管理更为高效。

Yes. If I've got a small store in a small market with 30,000 people and that general manager leaves me, how am I gonna find a replacement? I don't have lots of assistant managers in the store. Who will be willing to move to that town and take their family, say, honey, we're moving to such and such small town. We're selling the house, we're leaving your parents and your friends, come on with me. I think a lot of people will be showing up solo. So larger stores are easier for larger companies to run. So we see this regularly that a company will buy a group of stores, 10, 20 stores and then end up divesting some of the weaker ones. It's just not a good fit for them. So now we're seeing weakness in Nissan and Stellanus. And I think there are gonna be dozens, if not hundreds of those franchises that shift from large dealership groups to small dealers.

是的。如果我有一家位于3万人小市场里的小商店，而总经理离职了，我该如何找到替代人选？我店里没有很多助理经理。谁会愿意搬到那个小镇，并对家人说：“亲爱的，我们要搬到某某小镇。我们要卖掉房子，离开你的父母和朋友，跟我一起走吧。” 我想很多人会单独前来。所以，大公司更容易管理大型商店。我们常看到公司会购买一组商店，可能是10到20家商店，然后最终卖掉其中一些较弱的商店，因为这些商店不太适合他们。因此，我们现在看到日产和斯泰兰蒂斯存在弱点。我认为将会有几十甚至上百个特许经营权从大型经销商集团转移到小规模的经销商手中。

And we hear a lot about affordability for customers, how hard it is for them to buy a vehicle. There's also a lot of discussion in our industry about how expensive dealerships have gotten and how can an average person, man or woman working in the dealership today, ever hoped to afford one. And these types of dips that are happening now with a couple of franchises, to me, these are the opportunities for younger, less capitalized dealers or individuals to become dealers. So for instance, three years ago, the average Stellanus store might've been making, I don't know, $3 million, could've been worth 15 million in Blue Sky, maybe you have 10 million dollar facility. So you're $27 million to buy that business. Today, still gonna be the same amount of real estate, still the same amount of working capital, but it might sell for two or three or $4 million in Blue Sky. And can you just define Blue Sky for anyone that doesn't know what that means? Sure, I'm sorry, Blue Sky is basically intangible value. So the amount of money that someone have to pay a seller in order to buy that business over the tangible value, like the parts, the cars, the furniture, the computers, things of that nature, it's basically the right to own that franchise and operate there.

我们常常听到关于客户负担能力的问题，他们买车是多么困难。在我们行业内，还有很多关于经销商变得多么昂贵的讨论。如今，一个普通人在经销店工作，如何能指望买得起一辆车呢？而目前一些经销店遭遇的低谷，对我来说，这些是年轻、资金较少的经销商或个人成为经销商的机会。举例来说，三年前，平均一个Stellanus店可能赚了300万美元，其无形价值可能值1500万美元，再加上1000万美元的设施费用。所以，买下那个业务需要2700万美元。今天，房地产成本和运营资金可能还是一样的，但是其无形价值可能会卖两三百万或四百万美元。你能解释一下无形价值是什么意思吗？当然，对不起，无形价值基本上就是指没有形态的价值。也就是说，买方为了拥有和运营这家经销店，除了需要支付的实物价值（如零件、汽车、家具、电脑等）之外，还需要支付给卖家的额外金额。

Another question that came up to me recently was just about dealerships themselves and facilities, right? Because you see, the automakers are consistently pushing, upgraded facilities, newer looks, a more modern experience. On the other hand, agency models, you're seeing more murmurs about this. You're seeing more manufacturers talk about being involved in the retailing process in some way, somehow. What's your take on just these dealerships that are spending and dealers being required to spend all this money on upgrading their facilities? Do you think this is a hedge for the future or is it more of a moat where as the car buying experience becomes more experiential and more of a, it's not just transactional, that can actually be defensible for the dealer, where are you on the spectrum with this topic?

最近我想到的另一个问题是关于汽车经销商和他们的设施，对吧？你看，汽车制造商一直在推动更新设施、更新外观和更现代化的体验。另一方面，关于代理模式，你听到的讨论越来越多。越来越多的制造商在谈论以某种方式参与零售过程。对于这些经销商花费大量资金升级设施，你怎么看？你认为这是对未来的投资，还是说随着购车体验变得更加注重体验和不再仅仅是交易，这反而能为经销商创造一道护城河？对这个话题你怎么看？

I think that some manufacturers have quite reasonable facility designs and requirements on their retailers and they should have expectations. The retailers representing that brand needs to be an attractive, functional design replaced for a customer to come and for workers that wanna come and spend eight, 10 hours a day. So there's some brands that we see being very reasonable with this. So Toyota, Honda, Subaru, Nissan, and there's some brands that are crazy expensive, like Genesis, to build a Genesis store. It's about the most expensive per square foot dealership sign. What's so specific? Is it the facade or what is it? The materials, the design, et cetera. If you ask somebody to build a new store, is it cost more to build a Genesis store? Then it does to build a Mercedes store.

我认为有些制造商对其零售商的设施设计和要求是相当合理的，而且他们也应该有一定的期望。代表这个品牌的零售商需要一个吸引顾客并让员工愿意每天在那工作八到十小时的功能性设计。所以我们看到有些品牌在这方面做得很合理，比如丰田、本田、斯巴鲁和日产，而有些品牌的建设成本非常高，比如Genesis。建一家Genesis店是每平方英尺成本最高的经销店之一。是什么让它这么特别呢？是外观还是材料、设计等？如果你让某人建一家新店，建一家乐车固店的成本是否高于建一家奔驰店的成本呢？

Now, that's to me to be a waste of money. I don't think the consumer's demanding that you have thousand square foot building costs for some of these locations. So unfortunately, retailers do have to invest in their business to keep them fresh and desirable, but I don't think that there needs to be another image upgrade every 10 years. So Mercedes years ago had Auto House One and people had to put this black exterior, or blue exterior with blue poles. And the new CEO came and says, no, no, I want to have black Alucabon and black poles. So the retailers seven years later had to go and change the color on their facade. Hyundai went from blue to tan to black, or I think it was. So some factories I feel like are quite adept at spending somebody else's money.

对于我来说，这简直就是浪费钱。我不认为消费者要求在某些地点花费上千平方英尺的建筑成本。虽然不幸的是，零售商确实需要投资他们的业务来保持新鲜和吸引力，但我不认为每10年就需要进行一次形象升级。比如，几年前梅赛德斯有一个叫“Auto House One”的项目，要求店面外部用黑色或者蓝色外观和蓝色立柱。后来新的CEO来了，说不行不行，我想要黑色的Alucabon材料和黑色立柱。所以零售商在七年后不得不再次更改他们店面的颜色。现代汽车从蓝色换成了棕褐色，再换成了黑色。所以我觉得某些工厂非常擅长花别人的钱。

And what they may not appreciate is if their retailer is spending money on a Alucabond and tile, that's less money they can spend on training, on marketing, on providing a better customer experience. Because they don't have so much profit coming out of the store. So if I have to pour a lot back into the building, can I pour a lot into my people and my customers? There's going to be competition for that. So it is part of this business. The retailers do have to invest. Some factories are much better partners to their retailers than others. You also review lots of financial statements.

他们可能没有意识到的是，如果他们的零售商把钱花在购买Alucabond和瓷砖上，那他们就没有足够的钱用于员工培训、市场推广和提供更好的客户体验。因为店里的利润并不是那么多。如果我不得不把大量资金投入到店面装修上，那么我还能有很多钱投入到员工和客户身上吗？这两者之间会有竞争。所以这是这个业务的一部分。零售商确实需要投资。一些工厂要比其他工厂对他们的零售商更友好。你还需要审查大量的财务报表。

I'm curious to know, how are you seeing dealers investing in EV infrastructure, stuff like that? I mean, again, Ford had their program. I think it was called the Mach E, or I forget the exact name of it. Was it the Mach E program? But they had their program where dealers invested as much as, or over a million in some cases, per dealership. Then they pulled it about a year, a year and a half after. And dealers were pissed, rightfully so, because you just had that massive cash outlay that, oh, well, this is not the program that you need anymore to sell these EVs. Yeah.

我很好奇，你是怎么看待经销商在电动汽车基础设施上的投资的，比如类似的事情？我的意思是，福特曾经有一个计划。我记得好像叫Mach E项目，或者我忘记它的确切名字了。是叫Mach E项目吗？但是他们确实有一个计划，让经销商投入到达或者超过一百万美元，有些情况下甚至更多。然后他们在大约一年、一年半之后取消了这个计划。经销商们非常生气，理所应当，因为他们刚刚进行了大量的现金支出，然后突然被告知，这个项目已经不再需要了，无法再用来销售电动汽车了。

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What do you see right now in terms of EV investments? Or is it still being, are dealers doing it, not doing it? Where are we at?

你对当前的电动汽车投资怎么看？或者说，情况还是不明朗吗？经销商在投资吗？目前的状况如何？

Well, that Ford program you referred to was painful to those of us in the dealership buy sell world because we had two transactions that included four stores. The day that that program was announced, that the investment per location was going to be a million seven between the hardware they had to go in and the training and changing the height of the doors and buying a forklift and building a separate building store, the batteries. There's all this required infrastructure to be installed in order for the dealer, the retailer to be able to sell any EV at all. We had two transactions where we'd already set the price. As soon as that story hit, the buyers called us and said, hey, a million seven, that's coming off the purchase price. And we said, oh no, you're going to get the benefit of that million seven because you're going to be able to sell all these EVs. And they said, no, if you look, Ford's already announced the production is going from ICE to EV. This is not additive. This is not incremental. This is just simply a cost of doing business. And so we're not paying that million seven. That's got to come from the seller. The seller's blocked like no way. And so both we had two deals crash because of that.

好的，你提到的福特计划对我们这些参与经销商买卖的人来说非常痛苦。我们有两个交易，涉及到四家店铺。那天计划宣布时，每个店铺的投资将达到一百七十万美元，包括需要购置的硬件、培训、更换门的高度、购买叉车、建造独立建筑来储存电池等。这些都是为了让经销商能够销售电动汽车所必需的基础设施。 我们已经为两个交易确定了价格。当这个消息传出来后，买家打电话给我们说，这一百七十万美元要从购买价格中扣除。我们回答说，不行，你们将从这笔一百七十万美元的投资中受益，因为你们将能够销售所有这些电动汽车。买家却说，不对，福特已经宣布生产将从内燃机车转向电动车。这不是额外的，这是做生意的成本。所以他们不愿意支付这笔一百七十万美元，这笔费用必须由卖家承担。卖家坚决不肯。因此，我们的两个交易都因为这个计划而失败了。

Wow. So I estimated, all right, that's at least a million seven. I think they're roughly 3,000 Ford stores. So that's like $5.5 billion of franchise value that just appeared that day. If you do the rough math, $5.5 billion, I think is the math. Wow. And now how Ford blew $5.5 billion? Well, let's check the math. I've got my contract with me. I'm going to ask my analyst team back in Fort Lauderdale, run the numbers for me. But since then, now that was also when Mr. Farley was saying, I'm going to divide my company up into three sections. Is it Ford? There's going to be an EV section, an ICE section, and a commercial section. And I, Mr. Farley, am going to run the EV section. He's realized that EVs have been a disaster in terms of profits for really every OEM except Tesla. Tesla's the only companies making.

哇哦。所以我估算了一下，好吧，那至少有170万美元。我认为大约有3000家福特门店。所以那天大概就增加了55亿美元的特许经营价值。如果你做个粗略的计算，是55亿美元，我认为这数学没错。哇哦。那么现在福特是如何浪费了55亿美元的呢？好的，让我们检查一下数学。我带着合同在身上，我会让回劳德代尔堡的分析团队帮我算一算。但自那以后，那也是法利先生说我要把公司分成三部分的时候。是福特吗？将有一个电动车部门、一个内燃机部门和一个商用车部门。而我，法利先生，将负责电动车部门。他意识到，除了特斯拉之外，每家原始设备制造商在利润方面，电动车都是一个灾难。特斯拉是唯一赚钱的公司。

Yeah. Do you think it's just the necessary? I mean, Tesla lost money. Again, the critics would say, or if I'm being devils out of it, sorry, I would say, well, Tesla lost money for many years as well before they became super profitable. Do you think that's an anomaly? They were first to market or they weren't technically first, but they were the first prominent to market. Or do you think that legacy manufacturers can follow in their footsteps? I mean, Tesla had a lot of subsidies to start. They got massive amount of loans to build an EV. And they took time to develop a really good EV that when it hit the market was unique and desirable and performed incredibly well. I'm thinking about the Model S. Now, that was a high-end unit. But still, they put out a high-end unit that was in demand for those folks while they were building a higher volume, which is the Model 3 and then the Model Y. I think had the other OEMs followed the same path, which is, hey, we're going to continue with the ICE. And we're going to introduce one vehicle and make sure it's really good. Before expanding. Yeah. And it functions better than other products available on the market. Then I'll come in with the second product. Then I'll come in with the third. And said it said, hey, we're going all the way. We're going to drop these ICE things. It's very risky. Yeah. I think it must have been very hard to be a Mary Bear or Mr. Farley at the time. Because you look at Tesla stock. I mean, we joke about how it took off like a rocket, like SpaceX. But it was so, and it is so much more highly valued than any of the legacy OEMs. So you say it was like, well, we can't beat them, join them. We'll just copy Tesla. We're going to make all EVs. You know, it may be we'll go around our retailers too while we're at it. Yeah. That was maybe their wish. And then the reality is maybe Tesla's getting that 10% of the market that really wants to have an EV and wants to have a direct consumer model. Maybe the rest of the market is not yet there. Maybe they still want to have affordable vehicles that can drive 500 miles. So I think that they didn't try to build into the demand that was there. They just tried to, here's the supply. Now you got to take it.

是啊。你觉得这只是必要吗？我的意思是，特斯拉曾经亏钱。批评者会说，或者如果我是站在反面立场，我会说，特斯拉在成为超级盈利之前也亏了很多年。你觉得这是个特例吗？他们是市场第一，或者虽不完全是第一，但他们是第一个突出的品牌。你认为传统制造商可以效仿他们的脚步吗？ 特斯拉一开始有很多补贴。他们获得了大量贷款来制造电动汽车。他们花了时间开发出了一个非常好的电动汽车，当它进入市场时，它独特、受欢迎、表现出色。我指的是Model S。那是一款高端车型。但即使如此，他们推出了一款高需求的高端车型，同时也在构建更大规模的车型，比如Model 3和Model Y。 我认为如果其他原始设备制造商（OEMs）遵循相同的路径，就是继续生产内燃机车（ICE），然后推出一款非常优秀的电动车，确保它质量上乘，再扩展。它比市场上的其他产品更好用，然后再推出第二款，第三款车型。而不是说，我们全力出击，完全放弃内燃机车。这是非常冒险的。 我觉得当时做玛丽·巴拉（Mary Barra）或吉姆·法利（Mr. Farley）一定很困难。因为你看特斯拉的股票，我们开玩笑说它像SpaceX一样飞天，但它的价值比任何一个传统OEM都高很多。所以你会说，打不过就加入吧。我们就模仿特斯拉，全做电动汽车，同时也绕过我们的零售商。那可能是他们的愿望。现实可能是，特斯拉抓住了那10%真正想要电动汽车和直销模式的市场，也许其余市场还没到那一步。他们可能仍然想要价格实惠且能跑500英里的车。所以我觉得他们没有根据市场需求进行生产，而是强制市场接受供应。

So tell me more about Ford though, because recently from my understanding, and as you were telling me earlier today, is that Ford is actually rebounding a little bit now, right? We are. The last couple of podcasts we did, it wasn't pretty. You gave us an M&A update and Ford was not in good shape. Plus I didn't even need to hear it from you. People were telling me directly, hey, I will not touch a Ford store, right? Big deal or small dealers anywhere in between. So where's Ford at today? Seems like there's been some shifting over there. I think that retailers are feeling that Ford is coming back towards what makes sense. What does that mean? Providing the vehicles that the customers want to buy. And not just listening to the customers, actually that is. Listen to the customer. And Ford's got some really good strengths, powerful strengths, such as, well, the F-150. Top selling vehicle in the world for a long time.

那么，跟我多讲讲福特吧，因为据我最近的了解，还有你今天早些时候告诉我的，福特现在似乎有点回升了，对吧？是的。我们前几次播客聊的情况不太好。你给我们提供了并购（M&A）更新，福特的情况不容乐观。而且我不用听你说，身边的人也直接告诉我，他们根本不会考虑去福特店买车，无论大经销商还是小经销商。所以，福特现在的情况如何？看起来那边有一些变化。我认为零售商们觉得福特正在朝着合理的方向回归。意思是什么呢？就是说福特提供了顾客想买的车辆。而且不仅仅是倾听顾客的意见，更是实际行动起来。福特还拥有一些很强大的优势，比如F-150，这款车长期以来一直是全球销量最高的车型。

And we think a lot about consumers, what consumers are driving, etc. But the Ford commercial side are vehicles that are sold to people who make their living by driving those vehicles, using those vehicles. So they're willing to pay a lot for quality product. They drive that vehicle to use it quite heavily. So it's being serviced and it's using a lot of replacement parts. And I don't know what the percentage profit for retailers comes from replacement parts. But for Ford, I think it's a pretty big percentage. So retailers that we have that have Ford dealerships are making really strong margins on the trucks and the SUVs. And they have very powerful fixed operations.

我们经常会考虑消费者的问题，包括他们的需求和习惯等等。但对于福特的商用车辆来说，这些车是卖给那些靠驾驶这些车谋生的人。他们愿意花很多钱购买高质量的产品，因为他们需要频繁使用这些车辆，这也意味着这些车辆需要经常保养和更换零部件。我不确定零部件更换在零售商利润中的具体百分比，但对于福特来说，这肯定是一个很大的比例。所以我们合作的那些拥有福特经销权的零售商，在出售卡车和SUV时能获得非常高的利润率，他们的固有业务能力也非常强。

So there's a dealer in Dallas, Texas, well known to many people, Sam Pack. And he's one of the best Ford dealers in the world. And he talks about, I asked him years ago, you were about autonomous vehicles? You were about EVs? And his response was, not really. At least in his market, consumers drive a long way. Like a 300 mile range is not sufficient for someone living in Texas, especially somebody is going to be hauling a trailer. And for those consumers that have to have income, their truck is what provides them income. In his mind, they're going to continue to buy that product and service that product through his dealerships.

在德克萨斯州达拉斯，有一个人人皆知的经销商，名叫Sam Pack。他是世界上最优秀的福特经销商之一。我多年前曾问过他关于自动驾驶汽车和电动汽车的看法。他的回答是：并不怎么担心。至少在他的市场里，消费者需要开长途。比如300英里的续航对于生活在德克萨斯州的人来说是不够的，特别是那些要拖挂车的人。此外，对于那些依赖卡车挣钱的消费者来说，卡车是他们的生计来源。在他的观念里，这些消费者会继续购买并通过他的经销店维修他们的车辆。

And so I think that that confidence in the Ford brand is coming back. And I think also some of the stuff that Ford was trying to do to improve its share price. I mean, they're doing what's in their interest, right? Now they're realizing, oh, that didn't really work. So what are we going to do? Well, OK, we'll create hybrids, F-150 hybrid. So that provides the power and it provides the range. And it's still affordable, as opposed to the lightning, which would turn out to be a really good car to take to a cookout, right? It was an incredible tailgate machine, right? With all the power and you can open the fronk and you got a cooler that you can put a couple cases to beer in.

所以，我认为对福特品牌的信心正在恢复。我还认为，福特之前为了提高股价所做的一些事情并不是很成功。他们在尝试做什么对自己有利的事，不过现在他们意识到，哦，那没真的奏效。那么我们该怎么办？好吧，我们将推出混合动力车，比如F-150混合动力车。这样既有动力又有续航，而且价格也还可以接受，不像Lightning那样贵。尽管Lightning真的很适合在野餐时使用——它简直是一台不可思议的野营利器，动力强大，还能打开前备箱，把几箱啤酒冰在里面。

I mean, that thing, that's the machine to have if you're going to a football game and you want to spend the day. But if you're going to haul a couple of snowmobiles in Minnesota to your cabin, not a good choice. Tell me more about. Ford is definitely rising, or at least they've kind of changed the direction, which is good to hear. What other brands are super high in the man right now? Any outliers, or are we still with the traditional Toyota, Honda, Subaru, or anything? Give us a little overview there.

我的意思是，如果你打算去看一场足球比赛，并且想在那里待上一整天，那么这个机器是必备的。但如果你要把几台雪地摩托车从明尼苏达运到你的度假小屋，那就不是个好选择。再说说吧。福特确实在崛起，或者说他们已经转变了方向，这是个好消息。现在有哪些品牌特别受欢迎？有没有什么特别突出的，还是说我们还是在谈传统的丰田、本田、斯巴鲁之类的？给我们一个简要概述吧。

Toyota and Lexus are just performing extremely well. I don't know of many more good things I can say about that company. When you say performing extremely well, what are our valuations right now? Well, from the consumer standpoint, they have the best model lineup because they're really delivering anything the customer wants, particularly hybrids. That's really where they have almost every vehicle they have is a hybrid vehicle now. You can still get all gas if you want. They have maybe one or two, just all EVs, but it's really almost every vehicle they have, you can get an hybrid now.

丰田和雷克萨斯表现得非常出色。我真的不太清楚还能对这家公司说多少好话。你问他们的表现有多好？从消费者的角度来看，他们有着最好的车型阵容，因为他们可以提供任何客户想要的车型，特别是混合动力车。现在几乎每一款车都有混合动力版本。如果你想要纯汽油车，也还是可以选择的。他们也有一两款纯电动汽车，但几乎每一款车型都有一个混合动力版本。

That gives you the power, the range, the reliability, and an affordable price, and the economy. Not only the consumer is liking it, they're not over producing, they're continuing to innovate and bring in new products. The forerunners coming in now, Lexus is getting the GX. The business model for retailers remains rock solid. They still view the retailer as their partner. That's how they're being successful and delivering value to the customer through their retailers. Retailers feel like Toyota's actually helping me to become a better business person. Instead of some factories, I think the retailer feels suspicious of, are you trying to go around me? Are you trying to sell directly to my customer? Are you trying to take profit out of my pocket? What is happening here? There's always this tension that exists between many other OEMs or manufacturers in their retail network.

这给了你力量、覆盖范围、可靠性，以及经济实惠的价格。消费者不仅喜欢它，而且他们不会过度生产，还在不断创新并推出新产品。领先者现在进来了，雷克萨斯正在推出GX。零售商的商业模式依然坚如磐石。他们依然认为零售商是自己的伙伴。这就是他们通过零售商为客户创造价值并取得成功的方式。零售商觉得丰田实际上在帮助自己成为更好的生意人。而不像一些工厂，让零售商感觉到怀疑，你是不是在绕过我？你是不是在直接卖给我的客户？你是不是在从我口袋里拿利润？这里到底发生了什么？在许多其他原始设备制造商或制造商与它们的零售网络之间，总是存在这种紧张关系。

We spoke with Tom Dole earlier today. I think if I've learned anything today about the business, it seems like if mom and dad are playing nice, the manufacturer and the dealer, the customer experience is going to be pretty damn good. That's at least what I'm getting out here. Again, it's every time when the dealer and the manufacturer have a good relationship. The customer experience is just, that's the output. It's a lot better at least. It's a great point because if I have a business and that I'm selling a vehicle that's in demand, that means my competitor down the street, they have their in demand for it too. I've got to do a really good job taking care of my customer or they'll go across the street. He'll sell the vehicle to the customer. He'll get another one to sell. I still have the one that I didn't sell. His sales begin to accelerate mind.

我们今天早些时候与汤姆·多尔交谈。我觉得今天关于业务我学到了一点，如果厂家和经销商合作融洽，那么客户体验就会非常好。这至少是我得到的结论。每次当经销商和厂家关系良好时，客户的体验都会大大改善。这是一个很重要的观点，因为如果我有一家生意，卖的是紧俏车，那就意味着街对面的竞争对手也有同样的需求。我必须非常好地照顾我的顾客，否则他们会去对面的店买车。这样我的竞争对手卖出了车，还有机会再卖另一辆，而我却还有一辆没卖出去。他的销售开始加速，而我的却停滞不前。

If there's so much inventory out there, which happens with call to Stylannis or Nissan today, for customer comes to me, I might rough them up to try to get them in a car because I've got so much inventory. I've got to make it his problem as opposed to I really want this customer to come back to me in the future. I've got to treat him very, very nicely. The brands that we see Subaru, Toyota, Lexus, I would say those three brands, maybe you stand alone in terms of viewing their retailer as their partner and really as their customer. They're trying to please their retailer. How do I do that? They have a business model that brings them customers that has great products for the retailer to sell to the customers and then has programs after sale that make the customer happy, whether it's great residual values, a very reliable product. Toyota has two years of prepaid maintenance included in the purchase of the car. The customer's coming back while changes, tire rotations, things of that nature and further tying them to that retailer. There's certain things that those brands do that and Tom mentioned earlier, when you create a tie between the customer and a brand and the product, that's pretty powerful in terms of longevity and repurchase intention. Subaru has probably done that. The fact that he could create love what makes a Subaru, I can't think of any of the car company really pulling that off. Tell me about, we all know Toyota has obviously performed super well. They lost a ton of market share in the last couple of years because they didn't have inventory. Now they're gaining a lot of market share back. Do you think that that will leave any permanent marks on the brand as a dealer, potentially looking to buy a store? Is there anything that they're currently doing that is concerning or is the brand just performing on all cylinders? What's your take? I'm not aware of anything they're doing that I feel is a mistake. Sometimes they come out with a product that is a bit of a miss. Maybe it's not priced appropriately. I think the Tundra is a tough sell right now. It's expensive truck. I think people are looking at that and going, well, I'm going to get a Silverado or an F-150 or for less. There are some things I could nitpick on and maybe go to do or understand it better than I do. But in general, their intent, their strategies about providing a great value to the customer and making the retailer their partner. If that's what they're trying to do, then you can't complain about anything that comes. If that's still the intent. I think the other, we spoke about just underperforming brands versus overperforming or better performing brands. Another anecdote that I've noticed is that people will DM me on X or Twitter and they'll say, hey, I work at a blank store. Let's see, Stellanist store, considering moving to a blank, higher performing store. I just think that this is that death spiral. When you lose momentum as a brand, when you make incorrect decisions, you can't fix that overnight. You lose talent. You mentioned forgetting those customers trying to sell them a car. This is real. People are looking left and right. Everyone wants to maximize their earnings. One way you do that is by going to the most desirable brand. I definitely see it in my world. It can be a salesperson or a sales manager to GM, but it's very real and it's happening.

如果市场上有那么多库存，就像今天打电话给Stylannis或日产的情况一样，客户来找我，我可能会强硬一点，尽量让他们买车，因为我有太多的库存。我得让客户解决这些库存问题，而不是一心想着让客户未来还会回到我这里。因此，我需要非常友好地对待他们。我们看到的一些品牌，比如斯巴鲁、丰田、雷克萨斯，我会说这三个品牌，也许在把经销商视为合作伙伴和客户方面是独一无二的。他们试图让经销商满意。他们如何做到这一点？他们有一个商业模式，既能吸引客户，又有优质的产品让经销商能卖给客户，并且在售后有让客户满意的计划，比如高残值、非常可靠的产品。比如说，丰田在购车时包含两年的预付维护服务。客户会回来进行保养、轮胎更换等服务，从而进一步紧密联系经销商。那些品牌有些做法正如Tom之前提到的，当你在客户和品牌及产品之间建立联系时，这对品牌的长期发展以及客户的再次购买意向有很大的影响。斯巴鲁很可能做到了这一点。他们能够创造一种爱的感觉，这就是斯巴鲁的特别之处。我想不出有其他汽车公司能真正做到这一点。我们都知道丰田表现优异，这几年由于没有库存失去了大量市场份额，现在又逐渐恢复了许多市场份额。你认为这会对品牌留下永久的影响吗？作为经销商，如果考虑购买一家店，现在有没有什么他们正在做的事情让人担忧，或者说这个品牌表现得十分出色？你的看法是什么？对于丰田的做法，我不觉得他们做错了什么。有时候他们推出一些产品不太成功，比如定价不合适。我认为现在Tundra比较难卖，因为这是辆昂贵的卡车，我觉得人们会考虑买价格更低的Silverado或F-150。虽然我能挑一些小毛病，但总体来说，他们提供优质价值给客户，将零售商视为合作伙伴的策略是正确的。如果这真的是他们的初衷，那我们对于这样的结果也没什么可抱怨的。我觉得我们还谈到了一些表现不佳的品牌和表现优异的品牌。我注意到一个现象，有人会在X或Twitter上私信我，说他们在某某品牌的店工作，打算转到一个表现更好的品牌店工作。我觉得这是一种恶性循环，当品牌失去动力，做出错误决定时，你无法一夜之间修复。你会失去人才。你提到了忘记那些客户，试图卖车的行为，这是真实存在的。人们都在寻找机会，想要最大化他们的收入，而其中一种方式就是去最有吸引力的品牌。我在我的行业中确实见到这种情况，销售人员或销售经理转到一个更受欢迎的品牌，这是很真实而且正在发生的事情。

I want to shift the conversation to just foreign entrants. In the last six to 12 months, we've seen the names VINFAST. We've seen the names Fisker with a bankruptcy. A lot of change with these new entrants. I also have been saying that, in my opinion, it's never been a better time to be a new entrant in the car business because there's so much fluidity with EVs, with technology, with the fact that we didn't have much supply over the last couple of years, which was a forcing function to get people to try new brands potentially that had supply. Are you seeing anything? Are dealers asking you about this? Are you seeing dealership agreements potentially for these new entrants from overseas? I feel like that. I feel that some of the entrants that have come and failed, like Fisker, fail because they didn't necessarily have a product that was really superior or differentiated from what existed. They had a pretty cool look in SUV. They didn't have a good retail network. They didn't have retail network at all. I don't think it was poor experience. One of my teammates bought a Fisker and returned it in the first week because he could tell it was going to go back. I think that there is an opening at the bottom end of the market. This is where I think people are afraid of a Chinese invasion of automakers bringing people to that crisis. Yeah. I've seen some of the vehicles. I know some people, maybe you've gone to China and seen some of these products. They're not ugly cars. They're great looking cars. They have all kinds of tech involved in the performance and they're half the price of a comparable vehicle in the US. Now, Venfast is an interesting example where Chinese companies maybe would avoid some of the politics of being a Chinese brand. The tariffs in what I am. Yeah. They've got some vehicles that are very affordably priced. I don't know if they're taking off yet in the US, but to me that would be an entrant or at least a category that I feel is open. Maybe because of labor loss. The low end of the market, pretty much. Yes. If you could come in with a vehicle that somebody could buy for $200 a month through a lease and it provides good basic transportation, you're not trying to be a high performance car. You're not trying to have the latest and greatest tech. Why even install a nav system in a vehicle anymore when we all have cell phone? I totally agree with that. Why even have a radio? I totally agree with that. It's kind of- You can save money. You can really do that. Yeah. Just have four speakers and Bluetooth and a little- They don't need a screen. You can just put the phone is for. So I think if somebody were to design a vehicle on the loan in the market where we are seeing some certain niches like any of us, Grenadiers, come out with a cool looking Land Rover product, will they make it? Maybe. I mean, it's a 75, 80,000-hour vehicle instead of a comparable vehicle, which is a Land Rover Defender, which is probably 9 year, 110 and maybe it breaks down, maybe it doesn't. So there could be some niches that new entrants come into, but I feel it's so difficult to come in and take, share, profitably over a long period of time against some brutally good competitors while you're talking about Toyota, which I think invests more in R&D than almost any other company on the planet. How are you going to come and not compete them? You have Ford and Chevrolet that have these rock solid truck franchises. You got Jeep that has the legacy brand. You have Hyundai and Kia, which I think you've got some really innovative styling, beautiful cars, interior annex. Those are exciting cars to look at now. So if you're coming in new, what's your angle? Where are the niches that you could fill? That would be the only place that I could see somebody come in and be successful isn't a niche.

我想把话题转到国外的新晋车企。过去的六到十二个月里，我们看到了VINFAST的名字，还有Fisker，它们有的甚至破产了。这些新进者带来了很多变化。我也一直在说，在我看来，现在是进入汽车行业的最好时机，因为电动车的发展、技术进步，再加上过去几年供应不足，迫使人们尝试那些有供应的新品牌。你有没有注意到这种情况？经销商有没有向你咨询过这些问题？你有没有看到这些来自海外的新晋品牌可能会签订经销协议？ 我觉得有些失败的新晋品牌，比如Fisker，失败的原因是他们的产品并没有真正的优势或差异化。他们的SUV外观很酷，但没有一个好的零售网络，实际上根本没有零售网络。我不认为是体验不好。我一个同事买了一辆Fisker，结果在第一周就退了，因为他觉得问题很多。我认为市场低端有一个机会。这也是为什么一些人害怕中国汽车制造商的入侵。 是的，我看过一些车型。我认识的一些人，也许你也去过中国，看过这些产品。它们并不是丑陋的车，相反，它们看起来很不错，配备了各种技术，而价格仅为美国同类车型的一半。VINFAST是一个有趣的例子，它作为一家越南公司可能避免了一些中国品牌的政治问题和关税。他们的车子价格很实惠。我不知道它们在美国是否已经流行，但在我看来，这是一个有潜力的市场类别，也可能因为劳动法的原因，市场低端几乎是开放的。 如果有人能推出一款每月200美元租赁费用的基本交通工具，你不必追求高性能，也不必拥有最新最先进的技术。为什么还要在车里装导航系统呢？我们都有手机，完全同意。车里为什么还要有收音机？完全同意。这种方式可以节省成本。只要装四个扬声器和蓝牙连接，不需要显示屏，手机就能代替。这样设计一辆市场低端的车，我觉得是有机会的。有些类似的例子，比如Grenadiers，它们推出了一款外观很酷的路虎车型。他们能成功吗？大概吧。这款车售价约7万到8万美元，比金额高的路虎卫士便宜，但性能可能各有千秋。所以新晋品牌可以找到一些市场利基点，但我觉得要长期在这个竞争激烈的市场中盈利并不容易。像丰田这样的公司在研发上的投入几乎是全球最多的，你怎么竞争？还有福特和雪佛兰，它们的卡车业务非常稳固。还有Jeep这种有着深厚品牌历史的车企。现代和起亚也有很创新的设计，漂亮的车内装饰，现在看起来都很棒。 所以如果你是新晋者，你的优势是什么？你能填补的市场空缺在哪里？我觉得新晋品牌只能成功进入一些市场利基点。

On a different note, you wrote a letter to Elon Musk. So Elon follows me. So maybe he saw it. We shared it. But what was the outcome of that letter? Can you give a little context like what you wrote? I was pretty surprised. I was like, OK, interesting. Cool shot. And it got some good distribution. So I'm just curious if anything came out of that letter and if you can share what the purpose of the letter was. Sure. So the letter was a letter to Elon and it was an invitation for him to join the franchise system to help turn. Some people saw that. We're like, whoo, not happening. Well, so controversial. I can see how if you were launching a company back then that for Elon, it made sense to go direct to consumer. There was very little knowledge of electric vehicles back then. He thought that retailers wouldn't try to really sell his car. They wouldn't know how to sell it. And maybe he also wanted to control the customer experience.

换个话题，你给埃隆·马斯克写了一封信。埃隆关注我，所以他可能看到了这封信。我们分享了这封信，但这封信的结果是什么？你能提供一些背景信息，比如你写了什么吗？我当时感到非常惊讶，心想，挺有意思的。信件传播得不错，所以我很好奇这封信是否有任何后续结果，以及你能否分享一下写信的目的。 当然。这封信是写给埃隆的，邀请他加入我们的特许经营系统以帮助转型。有些人看到后觉得，哇，这不可能吧。嗯，的确挺有争议。我能理解当时如果埃隆启动一家公司，选择直接面向消费者是有道理的。那时候关于电动车的知识非常有限，他认为零售商不会真正去卖他的车，也不知道怎么卖，也许他还想控制客户体验。

And I think that there are there's a certain part of the population that's comfortable buying a vehicle online, even if it's a 50 or 100,000-hour vehicle. But his sales have slowed significantly. In fact, I think he had a decline last quarter in his sales and his inventory has ballooned. I think we estimate there's over $9 billion of units sitting unsold. These are no longer being sold. The factory and ship directly to the customer. That period is gone. Now they're stacking up at lots really all over the country. There was a video I saw of some New Teslas, Cybertrocks, Model 3s, WISE, etcetera, sitting on just a random, unsecured storage lot in Fort Lauderdale. Somebody had gotten spray paint and gone all these vehicles saying, F-E-On.

我认为，部分人群可以接受在网上购买车辆，即使是五万到十万美金的车辆。但是他的销售额已经大幅下滑。事实上，我认为他在上个季度销售量有所下降，库存急剧增加。据估计有超过90亿美元的车辆滞销。这些车辆不再是从工厂出来后直接发给客户，而是滞留在全国各地的仓库。我看过一个视频，里面显示一些新的特斯拉，比如Cybertruck，Model 3，Model Y等，随意堆放在劳德代尔堡的一个没有安保的存储区。有人用喷漆在这些车上写了“F-E-On”。

So the market shifted a little against, I think, that business model. It's no longer working as well as it did before. So some of the complaints that I hear, some of the resistance about buying a Tesla is, I really want somebody to explain the features and benefits to me. I want to go into a showroom and see it and test drive it. And I have this other vehicle that I kind of want to trade in so I can save some money on taxes and not have to do another transaction.

市场开始对这种商业模式有些不利了。我认为它不再像以前那样有效。所以我听到的一些投诉和对购买特斯拉的抵触情绪包括：我希望有人能向我解释特斯拉的功能和优点；我希望能走进展厅亲自看看并试驾一下；另外，我还有一辆车想要用来置换，这样可以节省一些税款，还能避免再进行一次交易。

And then if something goes wrong and something will go wrong with it, I think that Teslas have got one of the lowest rated reliability records or at least problems per vehicle. Consumer Reports is about the highest out there. So that happens. So if I have a Tesla dealership down the street from me, I feel more comfortable about purchasing that vehicle because I can go right there and get a service. But I have to take some off location place and it's going to sit back there and no one's going to communicate with me because I can't actually reach a person. That makes me less confident about buying that vehicle.

然后，如果出了什么问题，而问题总是会出现的，我认为特斯拉的可靠性记录是最低的之一，至少每辆车的问题数量很高。消费者报告是其中评价最高的。所以，如果在我家附近有一家特斯拉经销店，我会对购买这辆车更有信心，因为我可以直接去那里获得服务。但是如果我要去一个偏远的地方，车子会被搁置在那里，而且没有人会和我沟通，因为我无法联系到实际的人。这让我对购买那辆车的信心大大降低。

So for all those reasons, not growing sales anymore, a certain percentage of consumers wanting a physical experience. And I think the majority of customers still today want a physical experience and they can spend $50,000 or $100,000 on a vehicle. The uncertainty about what happens if the vehicle breaks? Who's going to fix it for me and how and when? And then from Tesla's own desire to increase sales and not have all that inventory sitting in the ground, the imitation was to offer Tesla franchises to retailers. And I'm pretty sure that you get a lot of people today. Take Tesla and actually attempt to franchise it. Yes. It's like, you know, pretty much every other franchise out there. Yeah.

所以基于上述所有原因，不再增长的销售，一定比例的消费者渴望实体体验。我认为今天大多数顾客仍然想要实体体验，尤其是当他们要花费5万或10万美元购买一辆车时。如果车辆出了问题怎么办？谁来修理？如何修理？修理时间是多久？再加上特斯拉自己也希望提高销售，而不是让所有库存车停滞不前。因此，他们有意向向零售商提供特斯拉特许经营。我非常确定，现在会有很多人愿意尝试做特斯拉的特许经营。是的，就像其他几乎所有的特许经营一样。

So rather than having 17,000 retail locations selling against you, offer up a franchise to a thousand retailers. And you could within, I think, a matter of a year have all those really talented retailers and the hardworking people that work for them and the technicians put down their wrenches when they're fixing a brand that isn't in demand today. You know, there are too many Nissan stores or too many Infinity stores or too many Chrysler stores, too many Ford stores, too many Chevrolet stores, too many big GMC stores. A certain percentage of those take their sign down and put up the Tesla sign and retrain everybody on the new product, how to repair that product, how to sell that product. To me, that's a win-win. It's better for Tesla shareholders. It's better for all the retailers. Now we're all in the same pool, one and the same thing, which is really to deliver the best customer experience possible.

与其让17,000家零售店彼此竞争，不如向一千家零售商提供特许经营权。在一年之内，你可以让那些真的很有才能的零售商和他们的辛勤员工，以及技术人员放下他们手中的扳手，不再修理那些今天没有市场需求的品牌。你知道，现在有太多的日产店、英菲尼迪店、克莱斯勒店、福特店、雪佛兰店和大型GMC店。他们中有一部分人将摘下旧的招牌，换上特斯拉的标志，并重新培训所有人，学习新产品的维修和销售。这对我来说是双赢的局面。这对特斯拉股东更好，对所有零售商也更好。这样我们就都在同一个阵营里，共同追求的目标是真正提供最佳的客户体验。

So I invited him to join for to connect him with some of my retail friends. I probably spent two weeks writing that letter and making sure that it had the right. We did an article on it, so we posted it as well. And after two weeks, well, a couple days after it landed, he responded and in two sentences he dashed my dreams. He said, you know, showrooms are for test drives only. It's better to buy online. That was it. Well, you got a response. It's epic. Well, I'm hoping that he'll keep that in consideration because I do feel that that's the win-win. There are very few companies out there that are successful making and selling something to consumers. Most successful companies are good at designing, making a product, and then someone else sells it for them.

所以我邀请他加入，以便把他介绍给我的一些零售朋友。我可能花了两个星期写那封信，并确保它内容得当。我们还写了一篇关于它的文章，并发布了出来。两周后，信送达几天后，他回复了，只用了两句话就打破了我的梦想。他说，你知道的，展厅只是用来试驾的，最好是在网上购买。就这样。不过，你得到了回复，这也很难得。我希望他能考虑这一点，因为我觉得这是双赢的。现在很少有公司能成功地制造并直接卖给消费者。大多数成功的公司擅长的是设计和制造产品，然后由其他人来销售。

I have a friend in Melbourne, Florida dealer there and he says, you know, the factory can't do nothing but make the car and ship the car. They're just in the way on everything else. That maybe is a little bit critical. Yeah. I'm sure there are a lot of. I've heard that's not. That's not. I've heard that kind of settlement. All right, so my favorite part before we wrap up is closing thoughts, predictions. So next 12 months, what is going to change in the car business? Talk to me profitability. Talk to me supply and valuations. What are we going to see? I think we're slowly going to see a return to what we had before. So that means more declines to come. I think that dealership profits will continue to decline a little bit. The new vehicle margins will come down as the supply increases. That'll be offset if we have lower interest rates by more vehicles being sold.

我有一个朋友在佛罗里达州墨尔本做汽车销售，他说，工厂除了制造和运输汽车之外，什么都做不了。其他方面，他们只会碍事。这可能有点批评了。不过，我确信有很多。我听说这种情况不是。我听说过那种解决方案。好了，所以在结束之前，我最喜欢的环节是总结和预测。接下来的12个月里，汽车行业会有哪些变化？谈谈盈利能力，谈谈供应和估值。我们会看到什么变化？我认为我们会逐渐回到之前的情况。这意味着未来还会有更多的下降。我认为经销商的利润会继续小幅下降。随着供应量的增加，新车利润率会下降。如果利率降低，更多车辆被售出，这会有所缓解。

I think that the demand for stores will remain high because I think that it still provides one of the best return on investments over a long period of time of just about any asset class that I know of. Yeah. Tell me about it. I get the PE firms emailing me every other week. So every other week, some random PE firm reaches out like, hey, we're interested in buying dealerships. Da da da da da. Yeah. Just like these random notes from international firms looking to just get in the business. Yeah. So I think that demand will stay there. So I think for those of you who are in auto retail now, I think it's going to seem to be a very good period. Do it your profits that are twice what they were in 2019. So if they drift back. It's out of pace inflation though. It's out of pace inflation. Yeah.

我认为对商店的需求将保持高位，因为我认为从我知道的几乎所有资产类别中，它仍然提供了长期以来最好的投资回报率之一。是的，跟我说说吧。我每隔一周就会收到私募股权公司给我发邮件。所以每隔一周，就会有一些随机的私募股权公司联系我，说他们有兴趣购买经销店，诸如此类的事情。是的，就像那些想要进入业务的国际公司发来的随机信息。所以我认为需求将保持在那儿。我认为，对于那些现在从事汽车零售业务的你们来说，未来将会是非常好的时期。你的利润是2019年的两倍，即使它们回落。它已经超出了通货膨胀的速度。对，已经超出通货膨胀的速度。

Now certain things I think are going to stick at a higher level. I don't think we're going to go back to 2019. I don't think. Yeah. Some of it is dealers have become more efficient. Some of it is, I hope the factors are realized that over producing vehicles is a bad outcome. We're seeing that right now with certain brands that have over produced. I think that cars will get a little bit cheaper for consumers. So they're going to start to win a little bit. They've been punished through inflation and this lack of supply. They had to pay a lot of money for new vehicle. They're going to get a bit of a break in terms of vehicle prices coming down. I think some of the retailers or manufacturers start to de-content some of the vehicles. I think that an interest rates will come down. Hopefully we have 50 hundred basis points drop in the next six months. That'd be the hope. That makes a big difference.

现在，我认为某些事情会在较高水平上持续。我不认为我们会回到2019年的情况。不认为。是的，有些原因是经销商变得更有效率了，还有，我希望大家注意到，过度生产车辆会带来不好的结果。我们现在就看到某些品牌因过度生产而面临的问题。我认为汽车价格对消费者来说会便宜一些，所以他们会开始稍微受益。由于通货膨胀和供应不足，他们不得不为新车支付高昂的费用，但他们会在车辆价格下降方面得到一点缓解。我认为一些零售商或制造商会减少一些车辆配置。我认为利率会下降，希望在接下来的六个月内利率能降低50到100个基点。这是希望吧。这将带来很大的不同。

So I still think we're not going to have a revolution where I don't think any factories are going to go broke like they did in 2009 or in the Great Recession when General Motors and Stellanus rolled over and died. Stellanus stock price is still really high. It's still worth $70 billion in equity guys. I'm like that for Stellanus. Nissan's not going to go and broke either. If anything, the Japanese government is going to prop them up. They're not letting Nissan go away. You may see some consolidation of brands who might see China. China owns Volvo. Could they buy another brand? Could they buy a Stellanus? Maybe they're not going to buy Nissan. Nissan, the Japanese government, I don't think we'll let the Chinese company buy that brand. I don't think we're going to see anything really big change. I think we're going to see things get better for consumers in terms of being cheaper. I think we're going to see profits decline for auto retailers. We're going to get a little worse for them. I still think it's going to be very good in terms of the ongoing profit in the next 12 months at least.

我仍然认为我们不会有一场革命，我也不认为会有很多工厂像2009年或大衰退时期那样破产，当时通用汽车和（Stellanus）一蹶不振。Stellanus的股价仍然很高，它的股票市值仍然有700亿美元。我对Stellanus抱有信心。日产也不会破产。如果有必要，日本政府会支持他们，他们不会让日产消失。你可能会看到一些品牌的合并，比如中国拥有沃尔沃，他们还可能收购另一个品牌，甚至可能是Stellanus，但他们不会收购日产。日产是日本的品牌，我不认为日本政府会让中国公司购买它。我认为不会有很大的变化，我们会看到消费者的花费减少，生活变得更好。但是汽车零售商的利润可能会下降，他们的处境会稍微恶化。不过，我仍然认为未来12个月的利润前景是乐观的。

Auto-carcity, are you seeing any brands rising quickly in valuation, like outlier brands that we're not thinking of? The biggest lift in brands that I saw last couple of years was Hyundai and Kia. During the pandemic, they had supply and had really good product. The blue sky value, the intangible value, the goodwill value for those stores, grew more in the last three years than any other brand. Is that going to continue? I think they take share, which they have as possible. Those brands were mostly about new car sales. They weren't very strong used cars or fixed operations. My guess is that would become a more balanced business model. I could see those brands becoming a little bit more durable over the long time, more comparable to Honda, perhaps Toyota.

汽车稀缺性，你是否看到有品牌的估值迅速上升，比如那些我们没有想到的独特品牌？过去几年里，我看到增长最快的品牌是现代和起亚。在疫情期间，他们有供应，同时产品质量也很好。这些商店的蓝天价值、无形价值和商誉在过去三年里比任何其他品牌都增长得更多。这种情况会继续吗？我认为他们会占据更多市场份额，尽管人们对此持怀疑态度。这些品牌以前主要依靠新车销售，二手车和售后业务并不强。我的猜测是，他们会形成一个更加平衡的商业模式。我可以预见这些品牌在长期内会变得更加持久，可能会更接近本田，也许还有丰田。

As usual, we're going to link the hate report in the show notes below. If anyone wants to read more, see some of the slides that we shared and spoke about the numbers, it's going to be linked below and anyone can access it. Alan, always a pleasure. Thanks for coming on again. Yeah, thanks for having me. All right.

像往常一样，我们会在下面的节目说明中附上仇恨报告的链接。如果有人想要了解更多内容，查看我们分享和讨论的一些幻灯片，链接会在下方，任何人都可以访问。Alan，一如既往地高兴和你聊天。谢谢再次邀请我参加节目。好的，谢谢。

Hope you enjoyed that episode. Please give the podcast a rating. Consider subscribing to the show and check the show notes for links to what we talked about. Thanks for tuning in. I'll see you guys next time.

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