Markets Weekly June 15, 2024

Hello my friends, today is June 15th and this is Markets Weekly. So this past week was a great weekend markets. We were making new all-time highs almost every single day. But at the moment, I'm pretty cautious though I continue to believe that the highs of the year are not yet in. Okay, so today I want to talk about three things.

你好，朋友们，今天是6月15日，欢迎来到每周市场分析。这过去的一周，市场表现非常出色，几乎每天都创下新高。不过，目前我还是比较谨慎，尽管我仍然相信今年的最高点还没到。好了，今天我想谈谈三件事。

First, this past week we got a whole bunch of inflation data and it was all really positive. So let's talk about what the data is saying and how the market is interpreting it.

首先，上周我们得到了大量的通货膨胀数据，而且这些数据都非常积极。所以，让我们来谈谈这些数据所传达的信息以及市场如何解读它们。

Secondly, there's been some big political changes in Europe and it's scaring parts of the market. So let's talk a little bit about what's happening in France.

其次，欧洲发生了一些重大的政治变化，这让市场的某些部分感到恐慌。那么让我们谈谈法国发生了什么。

And lastly, it seems like the Bank of Japan is finally, finally going to be shrinking its balance sheet by conducting quantitative tightening. So let's talk a little bit about what's going on over there.

最后，日本央行似乎终于要开始缩减其资产负债表了，也就是要进行量化紧缩。那么，我们来谈谈那边的情况吧。

Starting with inflation. So this past week, we got a whole bunch of inflation data and it was all pretty good. The good news started Wednesday morning right before the Fed meeting. At that time, we got the CPI data and on a month-over-month basis, headline CPI was 0% and of course CPI was 0.2%.

从通货膨胀开始。就在上周，我们收到了一大堆通货膨胀数据，而且情况都挺不错。好消息从周三早上在联邦储备会议前传来。那时，我们得到了消费者价格指数（CPI）数据，按月计算，总体CPI为0%，核心CPI为0.2%。

Now on an annual basis, CPI continues to print above 3%, definitely too high, but you can see that over the past several months, CPI has been moderating. Now, to be clear, the Fed targets PCE and not CPI. So PCE is another measure of consumer inflation. But part of the data in CPI feeds into PCE. So when you have good CPI prints, it's just good news for PCE.

现在按照年度计算，CPI（消费者价格指数）持续高于3%，确实太高了，但你可以看到，过去几个月中，CPI一直在减缓。需要明确的是，美联储关注的是PCE（个人消费支出价格指数），而不是CPI。但PCE也是衡量消费者通胀的一个指标。不过，CPI中的部分数据会影响PCE。因此，当CPI数据向好时，这对PCE也是个好消息。

Now, the past week on Thursday, we got PPI data. Now, PPI is basically prices paid by businesses and PPI data was across the board lower than expected. On Friday, we got import prices and they were also lower than expected. So we got a bunch of positive inflation prints. And what does that mean for them all important PCE coming out later in the month?

上周四，我们得到了PPI数据。PPI基本上是企业支付的价格数据，而这次的PPI数据普遍低于预期。星期五，我们得到了进口价格，它们也低于预期。所以我们得到了不少积极的通胀数据。这对本月晚些时候发布的重要PCE数据意味着什么呢？

Now, the Cleveland Fed has a very nice inflation now casting page and it's taking all that data and suggesting that PCE will print at about 2.6%, which would be an improvement from 2.7% last month. Note though, that core PCE looks pretty sticky, but at least headline PCE is moderating.

现在，克利夫兰联储有一个非常好的通胀预测页面，根据所有数据，预计个人消费支出（PCE）将达到大约2.6%，这比上个月的2.7%有所改善。不过需要注意的是，核心个人消费支出（Core PCE）看起来仍然比较顽固，但至少整体个人消费支出（Headline PCE）在减缓。

Now, the market is taking a look at all this positive inflation data and is suggesting that the Fed is going to be a bit more dovish than it projected. Remember, on Wednesday, using the dot plot, the Fed guided towards one cut this year, but at the moment, the market is actually pricing in two cuts this year. And this is very volatile and it could all change with new data.

现在，市场正在关注这些积极的通胀数据，并暗示美联储可能会比之前预计的更加温和。记住，在星期三的会议上，美联储通过点阵图指引今年可能会降息一次，但目前市场实际上预期今年会降息两次。这种情况非常不稳定，可能会随着新数据的出现而改变。

But the, I guess, the pricing of two cuts is in part contributing to lower interest rates and I think is also a tailwind for risk assets the past week.

但是，我想，两次降息的定价部分导致了利率下降，我认为这也是过去一周风险资产的一个利好因素。

The second thing I want to talk about is the big political changes happening in Europe. So this past week, we had European elections and looking at France, it looks like the Rassemblement National, the right-leaning party in France, is totally crushing President Macron's party, Bussuander up.

第二件事，我想谈谈欧洲正在发生的重大政治变化。就在上周，我们进行了欧洲选举。看看法国的情况，似乎法国的右翼政党“国民联盟”完全击败了总统马克龙的政党。

And so when you look at this, you're saying that, well, there's a lot of discontent in France as there is in many countries. Now, President Macron looked at these results and he called for new legislative elections and that call for new elections surprised many people and opens the door to some big political changes in France where potentially the right-leaning parties could have a lot more power in the legislature.

所以，当你看到这种情况时，你会说，嗯，法国和许多国家一样，有很多不满情绪。现在，马克龙总统看到了这些结果，他呼吁进行新的立法选举，这个呼吁让许多人感到惊讶，同时也为法国带来了一些大的政治变化的可能性，特别是右倾政党在立法机构中可能会获得更多权力。

So just looking more into this a bit more, why are the people so upset and what is the right-leaning party the Rassemblement National offering? So it looks from the platform that their biggest concern that they're addressing is immigration. In France, as in the US, there's been tremendous amounts of immigration and a lot of people don't like it.

所以，进一步了解这一点，为什么人们如此不满，右翼党派国民联盟（Rassemblement National）正在提供什么？从他们的竞选纲领来看，他们最关注的问题是移民。在法国，和美国一样，移民数量非常多，很多人对此不满。

Other things that they are addressing are, of course, inflation. So inflation, again, has been high in the US but also high in Europe, particularly because of the Russian-Ukrainian War pushing up energy prices. So they're looking to reduce some taxes to try to increase the income of the average person. And of course, they're also trying to address retirements.

他们正在解决的其他问题当然还包括通货膨胀。通货膨胀在美国和欧洲都很高，特别是由于俄乌战争推高了能源价格。所以他们正在考虑减少一些税收，以增加普通人的收入。当然，他们也在试图解决退休问题。

So President Macron raised the retirement age and it looks like they would like to have some changes there to basically improve the living standards of the retirees. Now, the market is looking at this election chaos and it's not happy. So it's not happy for a couple reasons.

所以马克龙总统提高了退休年龄，看来他们希望通过一些改变来基本提升退休人员的生活水平。现在，市场正关注这场选举的混乱局面，并且不太高兴。其中有几个原因让市场不满。

Of course, there's tremendous amounts of uncertainty. No one knows what's going to happen. Markets are a bit surprised. But also, the Rassemblement National is ultimately a populist party and that's just a lot more deficit spending. Now, President Macron himself has overseen tremendous amounts of deficit spending just a few months ago. You can see that the fiscal deficit in France was 5.5%, which is very high.

当然，现在存在巨大的不确定性。没有人知道接下来会发生什么。市场对此感到有些意外。不过，国民联盟党本质上是一个民粹主义政党，这意味着会有更多的赤字支出。而就在几个月前，马克龙总统也进行了大规模的赤字支出。法国的财政赤字达到了5.5%，这是一个非常高的数字。

In the US, of course, we're at 6 and 7% but 5 or 5% is historically quite high over there. The difference though is that in the US, at the end of the day, we have the Fed. We are a monetary sovereign. Fed can almost always finance it all. Or if you look at the case in the UK, a year ago, we had Lid's Trust Prime Minister at the time announced large spending. The bond market didn't like it and basically sold off aggressively. And at the last moment, of course, the Bank of England was able to ride into the rescue and buy a whole bunch of guilds to stabilize the market. Now, in the context of the European Union, France is not really a monetary sovereign. It's monetary policy. It's controlled by the ECB, which is another layer of bureaucracy. Decisions made by the ECB are done through a council involving all sorts of other countries.

在美国，我们的利率当然达到了6%和7%，但哪怕是5%或5%在历史上也算是相当高的。然而，美国的不同之处在于我们有美联储，我们是货币主权国，美联储几乎总是可以为一切融资。看看英国的情况，一年前，当时的首相丽兹·特拉斯宣布了大规模的支出计划，债券市场对此不买账，并迅速抛售。但最后时刻，英格兰银行当然能够介入并购买大量债券以稳定市场。然而，在欧盟的背景下，法国并不是真正的货币主权国，它的货币政策由欧洲央行控制，这是另一层官僚架构。欧洲央行的决定是通过一个包括各种其他国家的理事会做出的。

They have special programs to address dislocations in the debt market. But again, it's another layer of bureaucracy. So what the market seems to be looking at is that there is a possibility of tremendous amounts of deficit spending, putting upward pressure on interest rates, and potentially some dislocation in the bond market. So let's look at the stock market, for example. Over the past week, we saw the DAX, the German stock market, sell off. But when you look at the French stock market, it really plummeted. People are not liking what they see. But the more concerning episode is, in the bond market, we see French sovereign bonds yield as a spread to German bonds, really whining out a bit.

他们有一些特别项目来解决债务市场中的不正常情况。但同时，这也导致了更多的官僚主义。所以市场目前关注的是可能会出现大量的赤字支出，这会推高利率，并可能导致债券市场的不稳。拿股票市场举例来说，过去一周我们看到德国股市DAX下跌。但法国股市的跌幅更大，人们对市场前景不太乐观。更令人担忧的是，在债券市场上，法国国债的收益率相对于德国国债的收益率差距正在扩大。

And that, of course, is also bleeding into other sectors. For example, looking at the credit default swaps for the French financials, that's also whining a bit as well. Again, if you have sovereign credit risk rising, you are also going to have the private sector credit risk rising as well. Can euros sort off this past week as well? Now, the strange thing is that what's happening in Europe is actually having some impact on US markets. So French is actually home to a few large banks, a SOC Gen BNP credit act that are also pretty large players in US markets, in markets like the repo market. And so it seems like that's having some effect on some things we see in US markets. And I will write about the connections this week. It's not a big deal so far.

当然，这也影响到了其他行业。例如，观察法国金融公司的信用违约掉期，我们也能看到一些波动。同样，如果国家信用风险上升，私营部门的信用风险也会随之上升。这周欧元是否也有所影响呢？现在奇怪的是，欧洲发生的事情实际上对美国市场也产生了一些影响。法国是一些大型银行的总部所在地，比如法国兴业银行（SocGen）、法国巴黎银行（BNP）和法国农业信贷（Credit Agricole），这些银行在美国市场中也都是重要的参与者，比如在回购市场。所以这似乎对我们在美国市场看到的一些情况产生了影响。本周我会写一些关于这些联系的文章。不过，目前来看，这还不是一个大问题。

But going forward, if this deteriorates, it could easily reverberate to US markets. So it looks like we're going to have two rounds of elections in France. And so this is something that will play out over the coming weeks. Again, big changes happening in Europe and come November, maybe big changes happening in the US as well. As we discussed last week, I think going forward politics is going to play a much bigger role in markets than whatever the central banks do. Okay, the last thing that I want to talk about is the Bank of Japan. So let's just level set a little bit. So in Japan, as the rest of the world, inflation shot up a lot during the pandemic and now has trended lower. Unlike other countries, though, Japan has been struggling with this inflation for decades.

但是展望未来，如果情况恶化，这可能很容易对美国市场产生影响。所以我们看起来法国将会有两轮选举。这将在接下来的几周内逐渐展开。再次强调，欧洲正在发生重大变化，到了11月份，美国也可能会发生重大变化。正如我们上周讨论的，我认为未来政治在市场中的作用将比中央银行的举措更大。好，最后我想谈谈的是日本银行。让我们先了解一下背景。在日本，与世界其他地方一样，疫情期间通货膨胀飙升，现在已经趋于缓和。然而，与其他国家不同的是，日本几十年来一直在与低通胀作斗争。

And so they were really happy to see inflation emerge. So happy that they basically didn't do anything with their stance of monetary policy until very recently. So whereas the Fed funds rate, the Fed has hiked to around 5.5%. The Bank of Japan only recently hiked its interest rates from negative to zero. So they're a lot slower in their tightening process. But it seems like Governor Wado is more comfortable with the path of inflation thinking that, you know, maybe we don't really have to worry about falling back into disinflation anymore. He seems to be more comfortable that inflation is going to be around the 2% target for the next few years. So he's contemplating additional normalization in the stance of policy. So right now, what he seems to be discussing is potentially another rate hike, but also though, reducing the amount of bonds he's purchasing.

他们对通货膨胀的出现感到非常高兴，所以一直到最近，他们基本上没有改变货币政策立场。而美联储已经将联邦基金利率提高到大约5.5%，日本央行才最近才将利率从负值调回到零。所以日本在收紧政策方面要慢得多。但是，似乎央行行长和田更放心于通胀的路径，认为可能不需要再担心回到通缩的情况。他似乎更加确信在未来几年，通胀率将保持在2%左右的目标水平。因此，他在考虑进一步正常化政策立场。目前，他似乎在讨论的内容包括可能再次加息，同时减少购买债券的数量。

Now, the Bank of Japan has been a huge, huge, huge buyer of Japanese government bonds. And the continuity of be purchasing them right now. But if the Bank of Japan were to reduce their purchases though, as past purchases mature, then there's going to be a net decline in the holdings of JGVs. And so that in effect would be a form of quantitative tightening. Again, the amount rolling off exceeds the amount they continue to buy as they're guiding towards reducing their purchases maybe next month. Now, the Bank of Japan is vague on just the exact size of their reduction in purchases. So we'll find out more. But that suggests, of course, an ongoing normalization. And if you look at Japanese markets, GGB yields have been surging the past few months right now, just a little bit below 1% recall the Bank of Japan was under yield curve control for some time and only recently relaxed that.

现在，日本央行一直是日本国债的巨大购买者，并且持续购买这些国债。然而，如果日本央行减少购买量，当之前购买的国债到期时，持有的日本国债将出现净减少。这实际上是一种量化紧缩的形式。换句话说，到期的金额超过他们继续购买的金额，他们可能在下个月将减少购买量。日本央行对减少购买量的具体规模还没有明确说明，所以我们需要等更多的信息。但这表明，日本的货币政策正在逐渐正常化。如果我们看一下日本市场，过去几个月里，国债收益率大幅上升，现在略低于1%。回想一下，日本央行之前一直在实施收益率曲线控制政策，而最近才放松了这一政策。

Looking at the Japanese yen, it's been selling off, of course, aggressively over the past few months, but seems to be finding some resistance just below 160. Bank of Japan did intervene not too long ago spending $62 billion. But if they continue to normalize policy, then maybe they won't have to intervene anymore because higher interest rates in Japan will strengthen the yen. Now, it seems like part of the reason the Bank of Japan wants to continue to normalize policy is that the week yen is having a larger than expected impact on their inflation. So that's probably one of the reasons why they'd like to have a bit tighter monetary policy that, of course, remains a common data. So we'll find out more about this in July. Again, I think there's a lot of people selling the yen. So this could potentially be an event that moves markets as people potentially get off sites by a more hawkish than expected Bank of Japan. Don't know if that's going to happen. Find out in the coming weeks.

看看日元，最近几个月它一直在大幅贬值，但似乎在接近160之前遇到了些阻力。不久前，日本央行介入市场，花费了620亿美元。但是如果他们继续正常化货币政策，可能就不需要再干预了，因为日本的高利率会使日元走强。现在看来，日本央行想要继续正常化政策的部分原因是，日元贬值对通胀的影响比预期更大。因此，他们可能希望实施更紧缩的货币政策，当然，这仍然是根据数据来决定的。我们将在七月份了解到更多关于这方面的信息。我认为很多人都在卖出日元，所以如果日本央行的态度比预期更强硬，这可能会对市场产生影响。是否会发生这种情况，我们将在接下来的几周内得知。

All right, so that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you're interested in hearing my thoughts, I have a weekly research piece I published at my blog, FedGuy.com. And of course, if you're interested in learning more about markets, check out my online courses at centralbanking101.com. Talk to you all next week.

好吧，今天我准备的内容就到这里。非常感谢大家的收听。如果你对我的观点感兴趣，我每周都会在博客 FedGuy.com 发布一篇研究文章。当然，如果你想了解更多关于市场的知识，可以看看我在 centralbanking101.com 上的在线课程。下周再见！