Suit Up and Head to MidTown (Guest: Erik @YWR) - YouTube
发布时间 2024-03-22 17:23:01 来源
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It's Friday, March 22nd, 2024, episode 235 on Patrick Suresa. And I'm Kevin Muir. This week we have a wonderful discussion with Eric from your weekend reading where we talk about his time investing in Africa and how that has helped him navigate the recent uptick in inflation, why investors are underestimating the risk of getting left behind and Eric shares with us a surprising stock pick from his side of the pond. And Patrick pulls out his pack of crayolas to forecast what's ahead in talking charts. And we end with crayons with Kev and folks might even drink some beers along the way. So Danny, hop on.
今天是2024年3月22日，星期五，帕特里克·苏勒萨的第235集。我是凯文·缪尔。本周我们邀请了来自你周末阅读的埃里克参与精彩讨论，谈到他在非洲投资的经历如何帮助他应对最近通货膨胀上升，为什么投资者低估了被抛在后面的风险，埃里克与我们分享了他池塘这边的一个令人惊讶的股票选择。帕特里克用蜡笔预测了图表中的未来走势。最后，我们和凯文一起涂鸦，甚至可能在路上喝些啤酒。所以，丹尼，快来加入吧。
Now I went out of my way to make sure that we both had a beer so I could say what beer are we drinking today? But what happened, Danny? I got desperate in the week. Now, he's so very on-brand. So he didn't have beer so he drank it. But he did say I did take notes. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So you'll rate it. So what beer am I drinking?
现在我特意费劲心思确保我们两人都有啤酒，这样我就可以问今天喝的是什么啤酒？但是，丹尼发生了什么事？我上周感到非常绝望。现在，他非常符合品牌形象。所以他没有啤酒，所以他喝了它。但他确实说过我有做笔记。是的，你会评价它。那么我喝的是什么啤酒？
Okay, so you're drinking a Marks and Spencers American Pale Ale, which if anybody is in British Marks and Spencers is basically a commuting shop where you live in London and on the way to, I don't know, you're going to go home, you're going to jump on the tube or the train, you go to Marks and Spencers and you pick up one of these little cheap American Pale Ale's. But I have to say, I was quite impressed. I know you're supposed to- We don't. Yeah, you got to say that.
好吧，你正在喝一种马克斯和斯宾塞的美国淡色艾尔啤酒，如果有人在英国，马克斯和斯宾塞基本上是一个在伦敦生活的人上班途中要经过的商店。我不知道，你要回家的时候，要坐地铁或火车，你去马克斯和斯宾塞买一瓶这种便宜的美国淡色艾尔啤酒。但我必须说，我感到相当惊讶。我知道你应该说 - 我们不会。是啊，你得这么说。
Yeah, well, we'll rate it at the end. Actually, it was pretty good on first sip here. Yeah.
没错，我们会在最后评价它。实际上，刚喝的第一口味道还不错。是的。
Alright. Kev, give us some more disclaimers. All right, nothing in this podcast should be viewed as investment advice. Listeners should consult an investment professional before making any decisions regarding topics mentioned in the show. Side effects of too much huddle may include a conno bluritis. I can't even say it. Forecastic whiplash and trendalalysis paralysis. Ooh, I son suffer. Those are really hard ones you made up today, Patrick. I couldn't say half of them. Alright, let's get to the guest.
好的。凯文，给我们多说一些免责声明。好的，这个播客中的任何内容都不应被视为投资建议。听众在做出有关节目中提到的话题的决定之前应咨询投资专业人士。过度聚集的副作用可能包括视网膜炎、预测性残留伤和趋势分析麻痹。哦，我受苦了。帕特里克，你今天编的这些真的太难了，我连一半都说不出来。好的，让我们来看看嘉宾。
It's our great pleasure to welcome to the show, Eric from YWR, which stands for your weekend reading. Eric, thanks for making time for us. Thank you, Kevin. It's great to be here. I must say I have been looking forward to this because I've been reading your stuff for a while now. You come highly, highly regarded in terms of our buddy, Kuppie said you got to get Eric on the show and you're finally here. So it's going to be a lot of good things. So before we get into your calls, let's just chat a little bit about your life, your background. And although you're not Canadian, you actually spent the first few years of your life in Canada.
我们非常荣幸地欢迎来到节目中的艾瑞克，他来自YWR，代表着你的周末阅读。艾瑞克，感谢你抽出时间来参加我们的节目。谢谢你，凯文。能来到这里真是太棒了。我必须说我一直期待这一刻，因为我已经阅读你的作品有一段时间了。我们的朋友库皮高度评价你，说你一定要邀请艾瑞克到节目中来，而你终于来了。所以接下来会有很多好事发生。在我们讨论你的话题之前，让我们先聊一聊你的生活和背景。虽然你不是加拿大人，但你实际上在加拿大度过了你的头几年生活。
Yeah. In the 80s with the Calgary Flames playing the Edmonton Oilers and Wayne Gretzky. And so yeah, I learned to start it. So you were in Calgary. So you were actually a Calgary flame fan and you hated the Oilers. You hated the Oilers and it was such a big rivalry and it's funny to talk to Canadians that know that time they're like, oh, yeah, those were great games and so long ago, but they were fun. Oh, they were. And the other thing that people forget is that the score was often like 10-9. Yeah. It was a different game for sure back then.
是的，在80年代，卡尔加里火焰队对阵埃德蒙顿油人队以及韦恩·格雷茨基。所以是的，我学会了如何开始。所以你当时在卡尔加里。所以你实际上是卡尔加里火焰队的粉丝，你讨厌油人队。你讨厌油人队，这是一个很大的对抗，和那些知道那个时代的加拿大人聊起来真的很有趣，他们说“哦，是的，那些比赛真的很棒，虽然很久远，但是很有趣。”哦，是的。人们常常忘记的一件事是比分经常是10比9。是的。那时候的比赛确实是一场不同的游戏。
Yeah. All right. So you're there. Are your folks like doing oil stuff? Is that why you're there? And eventually you moved to Montana. Yeah, my dad was doing real estate there. Oh, okay. Yeah. And it was at the time that Calgary was going through a big, a down cycle in oil, but so it was kind of a tough time, one of the tough times before the oil sands ramped up. But yeah. And so you guys then moved to Montana. Yeah. Where did you move there? And what was it like spending the next part of your life there?
是的。好的。所以你在那里。你父母是在做石油相关的工作吗？这就是为什么你在那里的原因吗？最后你搬到了蒙大拿。是的，我爸爸在那里做房地产。哦，好的。是的。那时卡尔加里的石油行业正经历着一个底部周期，所以那是一个比较困难的时间，在油砂发展之前的一个困难时期。但是是的。所以你们搬到了蒙大拿。是的。你们什么时候搬到那里的？在那里度过接下来的生活是什么样的？
Yeah, I went to high school in a town called Great Falls. So I was relatively coming from a big city, which was Calgary, but it was just straight down six hours south of the border. And it was a very small town, 50,000 people, ranching town. And I went, so I went to a small high school there in Great Falls, Montana. Really good experience. Loved it, had so much fun. But then, you know, wanting to kind of, I'd always had the bug for markets. And that's how I was like, I can't stay here forever. So I went to school out in the East Coast. And then after graduating from college, went and worked in San Francisco. Funny thing was I tried to work in New York, but didn't end up getting a job there. So I had to come up with a plan B and I was like, well, got to be nice to live in California. And so I just packed up my car. I worked a summer in Great Falls back and went back to Montana to the landscaping for a summer to save up some money, packed up my car and headed out to San Francisco. And just got a job out of the paper with a mutual fund company. Okay. Is this between your undergraduate and your graduate work?
是的，我在一个叫大瀑布市的小镇上读高中。相对来说，我是来自一个大城市卡尔加里的，但离边境只有六小时的车程。那是一个很小的乡村镇，有5万人口，以农场经营为主。我在蒙大拿州的大瀑布市读了一所小学。真的是非常好的经历。我喜欢这里，玩得很开心。但是，你知道，我一直对市场感兴趣。所以我觉得我不能永远呆在那里。于是我去了东海岸读书。大学毕业后，我去了旧金山工作。有趣的是我曾试图在纽约工作，但最后没能在那里找到工作。所以我不得不想出一个备选计划，我就想，也许在加州生活也不错。于是我收拾好车，回大瀑布市工作了一个夏天，然后去蒙大拿州的一个夏天从事园艺工作来存点钱，最后收拾好行囊，前往旧金山。然后我在报纸上找到了一家互惠基金公司的工作。这是在你的本科和研究生学习之间吗？
Yeah. So this is after graduating from college, you know, 21, 22, and working for a mutual fund company, which is now Wells Fargo Asset Management, was called Montgomery back then. And I got my first job. I worked my way up from customer service, but then became a bank, a global banks analyst for this $10 billion mutual fund company. And I covered, so I covered, and this was basically the first 12 years of my career, I covered global financial services.
是的，这是在大学毕业后，你知道，21、22岁的时候，我在一家共同基金公司工作，现在叫做富国银行资产管理，那时候叫蒙哥马利。我获得了我的第一份工作。我从客户服务开始工作，然后成为了这家100亿美元的共同基金公司的全球银行分析师。我覆盖了，所以我覆盖了，这基本上是我职业生涯的头12年，我覆盖了全球金融服务行业。
So banks, especially banks in Europe and a little bit in Hong Kong and Australia. And so I got a lot of money from the banks and share in companies. And so that's why I often take a strong view on financial services. And in my newsletter, it goes back to that period of time. And in the late 1990s, early 2000s, what would give us kind of a deal for when this is? I graduated 97 from college. So yeah, right out of the gate, like within months, we had the financial, Asia financial crisis.
因此，银行，特别是欧洲的银行以及在香港和澳大利亚的一些银行，给了我很多钱，并在公司股份上分享。这就是为什么我经常对金融服务持有强硬立场的原因。在我的通讯中，它回溯到那段时间。在90年代末、2000年初，这给了我们一个什么样的印象呢？我于97年大学毕业。所以是的，就在毕业之后不久，我们遇到了亚洲金融危机。
Thai banks getting smashed. And then there was the dot com bubble being in San Francisco during that, being at a multi-sector global fund. And I remember those discussions, all the different sector heads during that time. Then we had the financial crisis, sorry, the tech crash of 0102, the ramp up. And then the, actually before we go on to that, you mentioned that you remember those discussions. What kind of what sticks in your mind?
泰国银行受到重创。我记得当时在旧金山的互联网泡沫爆炸，是跨行业全球基金的一部分。我记得那段时间各个行业负责人的讨论。然后我们经历了金融危机，对不起，是0102年的科技崩溃，然后是上涨。在继续之前，你提到你记得那些讨论。有什么留在你脑海中？
Yeah. Yeah. There was one in there were two things that, and I don't know if they're relevant, but I do. Well, one thing was I was the junior guy on the team covering banks and I'd kind of gotten this great opportunity because our senior banks lady gone back to London. So X kind of got elevated to senior banks analysts. So we were sitting around the table, trying to decide how much we should put in tech.
是的。是的。有一件事情，在团队中有两件事情，我不知道它们是否相关，但我知道。嗯，一件事是我是团队负责银行的初级成员，我有了这个很好的机会，因为我们的资深银行专家回到伦敦了。所以X成为了资深银行分析师。我们坐在一起讨论，决定我们应该在科技领域投入多少。
And tech was screaming and our tech analyst was pounding the table, how fantastic it was. And the conversation comes around to me and go, Eric, you know, banks was always a big sector. It was always like 20% of the portfolio. And they're like, Eric, what do you think? What should we take some money out of the bank sector and put more into tech? And I was like, well, they are cheap, but I don't, it doesn't sound as exciting as your stuff. You know, so, you know, we carved out another few percent out of the banks, put it more into semiconductors and this and that. And this was in 99. And of course, in hindsight, it was the wrong move where you pretty much we're adding to stuff within six months of the top.
技术领域正在热火朝天，我们的技术分析师在拍桌子，称赞得连连称奇。然后谈话转到我这里，他们说，埃里克，你知道，银行一直是一个重要的行业，总是占有20%的投资组合。他们问我，埃里克，你认为呢？我们应该从银行业中撤出一些资金，增加一些投资在科技领域吗？我说，嗯，科技股现在便宜，但是我觉得这没有你们那些股票那么刺激。所以我们从银行业中撤出了几个百分点的资金，增加在半导体等领域中。这是在1999年。当然，事后看来，这是错误的决定，我们几乎是在市场顶部的六个月内增加了投资。
And so that. And the famous Stanley Druckamiller. Yeah. Yeah. And just on the, yeah, I don't, I mean, your stuff sounds great, Bob. Let's, I mean, I've got a bank that a mortgage bank in the UK. It sounds like I didn't have any like experience, right? I was just right. So I was caught up in the whole thing too, right? And the other, the other conversation that you're, it's funny that you're getting right into this stuff, Kevin. The other conversation that I remember we were, because the fed, the fed was raising interest rates at the time.
所以。还有那个著名的斯坦利·德鲁卡米勒。是的。是的。就是关于这个，是的，我觉得你的想法很棒，鲍勃。我有一个在英国的房屋抵押银行。听起来好像我没有任何经验，对吧？我也被卷入其中了，对吧？另外，凯文，你马上就进入这些话题，真有趣。我记得我们曾经谈过的另一个话题，因为当时美联储正在提高利率。
But the market was steamrolling through it. And I remember having the conversation, someone in the table was having the saying like, oh, we should got to be careful of the fed's raising rates. This could have some kind of lag defect on the market. And our tech guy was saying, no, it's, it's, it's, it's not having the money supply that's coming from the IPOs, the amount of money coming in, there's no actual tightening of financial conditions going on because of all these IPOs.
但市场正在迅速前进。我记得曾经有人在讨论中提到，哦，我们应该小心联邦储备局提高利率。这可能对市场产生某种滞后效应。而我们的技术人员说，不，实际上，并不是来自首次公开募股的货币供应有所变动，而是进入市场的资金数量增加，所以并没有由于所有这些首次公开募股而导致财务状况收紧。
So actually it's going to overpower the fed and we don't need to be worried about these fed interest rate increases. And that in hindsight ended up to be wrong as well. But I just remember that argument and I, right? That's fascinating because it's so much like today, right? And I struggling with that same thing as well right now, but those words are. Yeah. Yeah. All right.
所以实际上它会压倒美联储，我们不需要担心这些美联储的利率上涨。事后证明那也是错误的。但我只是记得那个论点，对吧？这真是很有趣，因为现在情况很相似，对吧？我现在也在和同样的问题作斗争，但那些话是。是的。好的。
So you're there for a decision. Yeah. So you keep going. So you're, let's keep going through your. Yeah. So I, I had this view that, so our, our, the firm ended up downsizing. We basically, that mistake of overweighting tech imploded our performance over the next two years. Right. So we had downsizing. I had to leave and join some other for small firm. And I had this in my thing in my head that was like, okay, well, if I'm, if I cover Europe global financials and this is, I really want to be good at this. I should probably go to the place where, you know, I shouldn't be in San Francisco. I should be in London. So I ended up as like, I think I need to make this career move to actually transition myself to London. So I, that's where I left the firm I was at and went to a hedge fund in, in London in 2002. So, yeah. So then I, then I spent.
所以你在那里做出了一个决定。是的。所以你继续前进。所以，让我们继续谈谈你的想法。是的。我有这样一种看法，我们公司最终进行了裁员。由于我们过度依赖科技公司造成的错误，导致了接下来两年的绩效下降。所以我们进行了裁员。我不得不离开并加入了另外一个小公司。我当时心里想，如果我负责欧洲全球金融业务，并且真的想在这方面表现出色的话，我应该去一个更合适的地方，不应该在旧金山。所以我最后决定，我认为我需要做出这个职业转变，去伦敦工作。于是，我离开了之前的公司，在2002年去了伦敦的一个对冲基金。之后，我就…
So what was that like in terms of like a culture shock? Tough. And I, I, because I loved being from Montana, I loved living. If when you live in the Midwest or, I don't know, most places in the US, living in California is a dream, especially if you're from Montana. So I loved California. I love the sun, the sports and the outdoors. So it was a very difficult thing to go to London and not see the sun for the next four years. And I real out, you know, in San Francisco on the weekends, you're going skiing and mountain biking and doing all these things. So it was none of that. Right. Um, and so, but during the week with the finance, it was really exciting. But during the weekends, it was terrible. And I've actually moved back to California, I think three times in this current time, I've stuck.
那么，就像文化冲击一样是什么感觉呢？很艰难。因为我喜欢来自蒙大拿州，喜欢生活在那里。如果你住在中西部或者美国的大多数地方，生活在加利福尼亚就是一个梦想，尤其是如果你来自蒙大拿州。所以我喜欢加利福尼亚。我喜欢阳光、体育和户外活动。因此，接下来的四年没有看到太阳是一件很难受的事情。在旧金山，周末你可以去滑雪、骑山地车，并做很多其他活动。但在伦敦，这一切都消失了。在周一到周五，金融领域工作很刺激。但周末时，感觉糟透了。事实上，我回到加利福尼亚的次数已经有三次了，在这段时间里我留了下来。
But in my life, I have had this push pull of, Oh, London is good for work, but I hate the lack of sun and I go home back home, get homesick. But now this time I've got it. I've just been here for seven years. So I'm not falling for it again. My wife has told me to just accept my law and life that I need to be here. So just stop it with the back and forth. All right. Okay. So you go to London. You work for now. Are you still in equities and you're still doing somewhat the same thing or moving on more to portfolio manager? Yeah. Um, kind of like senior analysts running a small book within, within a bigger, a bigger firm with a portfolio, like giving, you know, where they kind of give you like, uh, here you can run 50 million and Oh, the main guy runs like two billion or so. Right. So we'll let you have a little pot where you can play around with. So, um, I did that. I, I didn't, I, another firm I worked for ended up shutting down and I, and I had this opportunity to go back to California and work for a hedge fund called passport capital. In San Francisco with John Burbank, which ended up being an amazing experience.
在我的生活中，我经历过这种矛盾的拉扯，哦，伦敦适合工作，但我讨厌缺少阳光，回家后就会很思家。但现在这一次我明白了，我已经在这里待了七年，所以我不会再被它迷惑了。我的妻子告诉我要接受现实和生活，需要我留在这里。所以不要再来回犹豫了。好的，好的。那么你去伦敦了。你现在还做股票吗，还是转变更多成为投资组合经理？是的。我像是一个资深分析员，在一个更大的公司中管理一个小组投资。他们会给你一定的资金，比如说你负责5千万，然后主要负责人负责20亿之类的。所以我们会让你有一个小额的投资去玩。我做了那个。我还为另一家公司工作，后来关闭了，我有机会回到加利福尼亚，与约翰·伯班克一起在旧金山的护照资本工作，这是一个很棒的经历。
And so actually that was one of my times that go back to San, I go back to San Francisco in 2006. Right. Like that's, that's a famous shop. Like that's a passport capital. Oh, it was, it was legendary and. And just working with John Burbank and how he, it's not, you know, I try to take on some of his skills. He's at another level. So, and, and how he can manage things that other people can't. So what was the biggest surprise when you, so you would be doing the markets for, you know, a decade at this point, you go back to San Francisco, you go and you get to be under this John Burbank. What was the biggest surprise? But what he did different? Like, what was the things that kind of like, you're like, wow, this is in a different league. Oh, oh, it was nonstop. Um, I, the fun. So I was, I had had an opportunity to work for, I got two job offers back in San Francisco. What was that a mutual fund, which was Dresden or bank and I was like, do I still do the safe mutual fund? And I'd already had a fund in London clothes on me. Right. So I was like, I don't know if I should go for the small hedge fund thing again. Maybe I should go back to the aircraft carrier mutual fund thing. But it seemed so boring, right? And John seems so excited. I don't know. I'm going to get sucked into it again. So I did, I did the small edge fund and he had been compounding at 25% a year. So he had grown to 500 million under management.
所以实际上，那是我回到旧金山的一次经历，我在2006年回到了旧金山。是的。就像那是一个著名的商店。那是一个护照资本。哦，那是传奇。与约翰·伯班克一起工作，他的技能让我受益良多。他在另一个层次。所以，他可以管理其他人无法管理的事情。那么，当你做市场的时候，这已经有十年的时间了，你回到了旧金山，成为了约翰·伯班克麾下。最大的惊喜是什么呢？他做了什么不同的事情？有哪些让你觉得“哇，这是一个不同的水平”的事情？哦，哦，那是不停歇的。我有机会在旧金山得到两份工作邀约。一个是德累斯顿银行的共同基金，另一个是我在伦敦的共同基金。我不知道是否应该选择那个稳定的共同基金。而且我已经在伦敦的共同基金失去了。所以我不知道是否应该再次选择那个小型对冲基金。但是它似乎太无聊了，对吧？而约翰似乎是如此兴奋。我不知道，我可能会再次被吸引。所以我选择了那个小型对冲基金，他一直以25%的年复合增长率增长，管理规模已经增长到5亿美元。
I'm like, okay, well, it seems like he's doing okay. So I joined and then two months later, he has, and he'd just taken in a hundred million dollars from Goldman Sachs fund of funds. And so things were all great. And two months after I joined, he has a, he goes from up 25% on the year to down nine. But eight or not. Yes. And before I joined, he had taken, he had put 25% of the fund into a unlist. Sorry. Unfollowed Indian stock called Reliance Capital, which was one of them.
我当时觉得，嗯，看起来他做得很好。所以我加入了，然后两个月后，他从高盛基金筹集了一亿美元。事情都很顺利。但是我加入两个月后，他从全年上涨25%变成了下跌9%。但不管怎么样。是的。在我加入之前，他将基金的25%投入了一个叫Reliance Capital的未上市印度股票中。
Oh, Mumbani Brothers. They split their dad's business up. And this was one of the collections, which has gone on to be one of the India's biggest companies. Is Reliance Capital done that? Or was it Reliance industry? Well, I don't remember. Oh, maybe I've got it wrong. Maybe. Okay. Maybe I've got the real. I just heard Reliance and I just knew it was. I think it was the other one. So he's got, so he's got this big huge position and then it could have or something. Oh, yes. Yes. And so, and we get murdered, right? So, and then Goldman Sachs freaks out that they've just put money in this hedge fund and it's had a equivalent 30% drawdown top to bottom, right? They didn't think that was possible.
哦，穆班尼兄弟。他们分割了父亲的生意。这是其中一个收藏，后来发展成为印度最大的公司之一。是信实资本做到了吗？还是信实工业？哦，我不记得了。或许我记错了。可能是。好吧。或许我真的记错了。我只是听说过信实，就知道了。我觉得是另一个。所以他有了一个非常大的头寸，然后可能会有什么变故。哦，是的。是的。所以，我们遇到了困难，对吧？然后高盛感到恐慌，他们刚刚把钱投入这个对冲基金，结果从顶点到底点下跌了30%，他们认为这是不可能的。
It blew out all their analysis of what this fund was going to do and the risk profile of the thing. So they end up redeeming immediately. Like they've only been in the fund like nine months or something. And so our AUM have gone now sub 400 or something. And John refuses to sell anything. He's like, no, I am not selling a single share of any of these things. They are the greatest ideas ever. We were in this like 25% of the fun in this Indian asset manager, rig stocks. We had a rig fund, a special fund that all it did was own eight publicly traded rig stocks. Right. That sounds weird, but actually it was a thing. Right. Rig is in like the drilling rings. It's really trans-ocean. All of those things, right. And then we had an India fund. We had a mining fund, right?
这轰动了他们对这个基金将要做什么以及风险配置的所有分析。于是他们最终选择立即赎回。就好像他们只持有这个基金九个月之类的。这样我们的资产管理规模现在降至了400以下。而约翰拒绝出售任何东西。他说，不，我不会卖掉任何一股。这些是有史以来最棒的想法。我们持有印度资产管理公司大约25%的份额，还有一个特殊基金，专门持有八家公开交易的钻井公司。那听起来有点奇怪，但实际上那是有道理的。这些公司涉及钻探环等机械，例如Transocean等。然后我们还有一个印度基金，一个矿业基金，对吧？
So we were in mining emerging markets, India, oil, all the great themes, right? He had them every one of them. Oh, and we were doing shorting subprime. We had a subprime fund, subprime CDS fund as well. Wow, which was another thing that was amazing about it. So then basically what happened, which I thought was amazing was he never sold a share. He went back to the prime brokers, levered up the, just said, look, I want to, I need more leverage. I'm going to keep all these positions. And then he said, guys, because like we've gotten beat up and we were embarrassed. And it was, it looked like a normal fund would have been kind of shirking or embarrassed about it. Yeah.
所以我们在挖掘新兴市场，印度，石油，所有伟大的主题，对吧？他都有涉猎。哦，我们还在做空次级抵押贷款。我们有一个次级抵押贷款基金，还有一个次级抵押贷款CDS基金。哇，这也是让人惊讶的事情。然后基本上发生了什么，我觉得很惊人的是他从未卖出过一股。他回到主要经纪商那里，杠杆，只是说，看，我需要更多杠杆。我要保留所有这些头寸。然后他说，伙计们，因为我们受到了打击，我们感到尴尬。这看起来像是一个正常的基金会对此感到羞辱或尴尬。是的。
He goes, no, we need to suit up as input suits on because we didn't wear suits in San Francisco. We wore, you know, fleece vests. We worked above an art gallery. And we need to put our suits on, go to Midtown and market the fund and raise more money because this is the best time ever to come into what we're doing. I think we're about to make a ton of money. And I was like, oh my God, that is like the most ballsy, awesome thing to like get on the front foot and go, no, I'm not. I'm actually not embarrassed about this.
他说，不，我们需要穿上正装，因为在旧金山我们不穿西装。我们穿的是，你知道的，抓绒背心。我们在一家艺术画廊上面工作。现在我们需要穿上西装，去中城市场推动基金，并募集更多资金，因为现在是我们所做的最好时机。我觉得我们即将赚大钱了。我就像，哦天啊，这真是最大胆、最棒的事情，要坚定立足，不觉得尴尬。
This is actually the for you. This is the best opportunity ever. The next year, that was 2006. That happened the next year. The fund was up 270 percent because every single thing worked. EM went up, gold went up, India went up. EM was and mining was firing. And the subprime trade worked too, which is a weird thing that the US was cratering and the spreads were widening, even though EM was going up and not noticing, which was kind of a weird. Yeah. But anyways, it was it was insane. Right. That's an awesome job. John, I was like, that guy is next level, right? Right. So anyway, that was a so passport was great. And so how long did you stay there? And when did you get like you have a master's in economics and finance? When did you do this? So that was two years ago.
这实际上是给你的。这是有史以来最好的机会。接下来的一年是2006年。那发生在接下来的一年。基金增长了270%，因为每一件事情都顺利。新兴市场上涨，黄金上涨，印度上涨。新兴市场和矿业都在蓬勃发展。次级贷款交易也成功了，虽然美国正在陷入危机，利差在扩大，而新兴市场却在上升并没有察觉，这有点奇怪。但无论如何，那简直是疯狂。没错。那是一个了不起的工作。约翰，我觉得他是下一个水平，对吧？所以，护照是很棒的。你在那里待了多久？你是什么时候获得经济学和金融硕士学位的？那是两年前的事了。
So various things happen. I open I run an Africa fund for a while, which ends up having to close in 2021. Just couldn't raise money understandably because it was terrible versus the S&P. I'm talking trying to sell it to Europeans and everybody. But I had a reset like I was like, Oh, God, you know, I think I need to do a bunch of things differently. I want to get my master's in economics, which I did here in the UK at University of Bath. And I want to start writing again, which was how I started writing YWR.
发生了各种事情。我曾经运行过一只非洲基金，最终在2021年不得不关闭。理所当然地，无法募集到资金，因为其表现远远不及标准普尔指数。我试图向欧洲人和其他人推销这只基金。但我重新思考了，我意识到我需要做很多事情不同了。我想获得经济学硕士学位，我在英国巴斯大学完成了这个学位。我想重新开始写作，这也是我开始写作《YWR》的方式。
So you did your master's like recently, you're saying? Yeah. Like, like as an older student. Yeah, as an older student. Yes. Were you the oldest guy in the in the program? Yes. Yes. So what was that like? It was great. I mean, I should say I. I was semi doing it as a box checking exercise because I hadn't actually done an MBA. Right. So I was like, I want it. I want it. I felt like I was stale. I felt like my skills, everything. I was like, I did a whole like personal analysis. I was like, look, I need to learn programming. I need to write again. I need to get a graduate degree. And so it was good. I enjoyed it.
所以你最近刚获得硕士学位，是吗？是的。像是作为一个年长的学生。是的，作为一个年长的学生。是的。你在节目中是最老的人吗？是的。是的。那这是怎么样的体验？很棒。我的意思是，我应该说，我有点把它当作一个填鸭式的练习，因为我实际上没有读过MBA。对。所以我想做。我想要。我觉得我有点呆滞。我觉得我的技能，一切都是。我做了一次全面的个人分析。我想说，看，我需要学编程。我需要重新开始写作。我需要获得一个研究生学位。所以这很好。我很享受。
That is fascinating because I. So as reading your stuff, I was like, holy smokes, this guy is doing factory analysis. He's doing all sorts of programming. And I kind of just I saw the San Francisco and I was expecting that this was something that had just been throughout your entire career. Now this is fascinating that like, you know, towards, let's just say the middle of your career, you take a like a time out. I'm going to rethink about this. Oh, head off to university and you re learn a whole bunch of new skills. Yeah. And you look around the industry and you go.
这真是令人着迷，因为我看到了您的一些东西，我就感觉，这家伙正在进行工厂分析。他在做各种各样的编程。我有点像在旧金山见到了你，我本以为这是你整个职业生涯中经历过的一种事情。现在真是让人着迷的是，你知道，在你职业生涯的中期，你进行了一次暂时的休息。我会重新考虑一下这件事。哦，去大学读书，学习了一堆新技能。是的。你环顾四周，然后说。
Like you go, you realize how much like when my fun clothes, I was looking at, you know, the different job opportunities out there. And I was realizing in the asset management industry, you look on the postings of Black Rock or Blackstone or Millennium or Citadel, whatever. 90% of the jobs are software programming type things or quant or right. And I was like, ah, this industry has changed over my course of my career. You know, I and have not. I got the undergraduate degree and I haven't progressed and yet my industry has changed and I need a refresh personally.
当你去尝试一下不同的事情时，你会意识到有多像我穿着有趣的衣服时，我在研究各种不同的工作机会。我意识到在资产管理行业，你会看到像黑石集团、花旗或者Citadel这样的公司发布的岗位，90%的工作是与软件编程或者数量化有关的。我意识到这个行业在我的职业生涯中发生了变化。我没有取得本科学位，并且我没有进步，而我的行业却发生了变化，我需要进行个人的更新。
That that is so impressive that you realize that and went and did it because most people won't do that at a later age. It's just stuck in it, bitching about like the world. And you actually went and did it. That's fascinating. Yeah. I was like, I need you to 30 minutes. I still do it. I was like, I'm going to get a code academy's membership and do 30 minutes of programming a day. I need it. I know I'm going to suck, but I'm just going to keep doing it. So I tried to force myself to do the exact same thing.
这真的令人印象深刻，你意识到这一点然后去做了，因为大多数人在以后的年龄都不会这样做。他们会被困在原地，抱怨着世界。而你实际上去做了。这太有趣了。是的，我想我需要坚持30分钟。我现在还在做。我决定注册Codeacademy，每天坚持30分钟的编程。我知道我可能会很菜，但我会坚持不懈。所以我努力逼迫自己做同样的事情。
Yeah. I don't use code academy. I use another one, but I just like I got a program because I find when I go do the programming is that I forget. So I spend a lot of time going out, blah, blah, blah. Now I come from a little bit more of a programming background, but over time I've kind of fallen behind. And like when I got my job, like on, I'm my background is I'm a trader at RBC and I was an institutional equity derivatives trader. I was hired because I was kind of a mix of someone that understood trading and also understood computers. Now back then, that didn't mean much. Like this is in the early 90s. Like it was like being able to use Excel was a big deal. Um, but I actually tell people all the time, I'm like, no, you have to as a young person when they ask me for advice, I'm saying you have to go and get good at computers because that's in essence what the older people aren't willing to do. Yeah. That's like, I can't do it as well as you do. I don't have time. But anyway, it's funny because you force yourself to do it because I have forced myself to do it as well because I find I forget it. Like a week later, I'm like, Oh geez, what's that command for that? And I'm like looking things up again.
是的。我不使用代码学院。我用另一个网站，但是我觉得我需要一个程序，因为当我开始编程时，我会忘记。我花很多时间去做一些其他事情。我有一些编程的背景，但随着时间的推移，我有些落后了。当我找到工作的时候，我在RBC是一名交易员，曾经是机构股票衍生品交易员。我被雇用是因为我在交易和计算机方面都有一定的了解。那时候，这并不太重要。这是在90年代初期，能用Excel已经很了不起了。但是我告诉年轻人，如果他们问我建议，我会说你必须精通计算机，因为这正是老一辈人不愿意做的。他们会说：“我做得没有你好，我没有时间。”但是你必须逼着自己学会，因为我也是这么做的，因为我发现我会忘记。一周后，我会忘记那个命令是什么，然后又得查一遍。
Yes. It is like a language. You have to do a little bit every day of it. Yeah. That's true. All right. So you, so you go back to school and I guess I wasn't expecting you to tell me that and I was jumping ahead on your career. Let's talk a little bit about the Africa fund. So you're, you know, you're a passport and I'm assuming that opportunity to go and start this Africa fund arises from a contact there. Well, there's a stop in between. Oh, there's another stop. Oh, God, Kevin, you're going right into the, um, but you know what? This is how life is. So for sure. Yeah. So so I was feeling at that point in my career with passport that I wanted to be a portfolio manager. I've been a senior analyst for a long, long time. And, um, but John was like, I don't think you're, I think, I don't remember how old I think it was like early 30s or something. And, um, John was like, no, I don't think I could see, I would think you have to be 40 to be a portfolio manager. It's like, I was basically going to be like another 10 years. He was like, okay. I was like, I don't know. I mean, that seems, I was impatient and a friend of mine who had run a hedge fund in London was setting up a fund in San Francisco. He said, Eric, um, would you like to run a portfolio for me, a global financial services portfolio for me? And, you know, you can run a book of like a hundred million and I'll pay you a formula on what you make. And I thought, wow, that would be cool. You know, that's, and I loved the formula driven. I hated always in, uh, at jobs I had where it was the, the bonus at the end of the year was just putting their thumb in the air and saying, yeah, we think, we think you did this. And I'm like, well, you know, you always, so this was, I swear this was appealing, a chance to run a book and, and on a, and earn a percentage of what you made. So I left passport at that point in June of, oh eight and joined this one.
是的。这就像一门语言。你必须每天都要学一点。是的，没错。好吧，所以你回到学校，我猜我没料到你会告诉我这个，我可能提前预测了你的职业发展。让我们来谈一下非洲基金。所以你的护照，我猜那个去开展这个非洲基金的机会是由一个联系人提供的。哦，这之间还有一个阶段。哦，还有另一个阶段。天啊，Kevin，你直奔主题，但你知道吗，生活就是这样。所以我觉得在那个时候，我的职业生涯已经到了需要成为投资组合经理的阶段。我已经是一位高级分析师很长一段时间了。John说，我不认为你可以看到，我认为你要做40岁才能成为投资组合经理。基本上还需要再等10年。我不知道，我觉得这似乎太慢了，一个朋友曾在伦敦经营过一个对冲基金，现在正在旧金山成立一个基金。他说，Eric，你愿意为我运作一个全球金融服务投资组合吗？你可以管理一笔大约一亿美元的资金，我会按照你的收益支付给你一定比例的报酬。我想，哇，那将会很酷。我喜欢有公式的驱动力。我讨厌以前工作中年终奖只是随便定的，他们用手指在空中划了一下，说，嗯，我们认为，我们认为你做到了这个。而我总是觉得有些不公平。所以这个机会是很有吸引力的，有机会管理一个资产并根据你的收益获得一定比例的报酬。所以我那时在08年6月离开了护照公司，加入了这个基金。
And the fun ends up having a very difficult time through the O eight crisis and, and missing the O nine rebound. Oh, okay. I, I, I think I was down nine, 10% through O eight, which isn't bad considering your financial services. One of the worst crisis ever. And you were the epicenter of the. And then I, and then I caught, I made like 25% the next year. And so I, you know, got paid out, but the fund didn't do like the overall performance. The fun was very soggy. And like we'd kind of been down nine or 10 and then made up like made five the next year. And so we had these big redemptions and the fun ended up shutting down at the end of. So the fun shuts down within 18 months. I leave the superstar place to join a new startup fund and it shuts in 18 months. Yeah. And so I was like, Oh God. That was terrible. Um, and there's a story that I'll tell later because I think you mentioned it's one of your, one of your thoughts, one of your things. And I ended up from there, I ended up joining, uh, joining HSBC in equity sales. Okay. And that, uh, just selling Europeans stocks to large funds in, uh, on the West Coast. And the problem I had was I had really good boss, but I was, they, the, I was HSBC was trying to break into the market and get all these trades from capital group, Janice, all the big, I had a lot of big clients, right? And the guys in London had all these big expectations of how much trading commission we were going to get from these big clients. But our clients did not care about HSBC research, you know, which it was pretty, there was some, it was generally pretty average. We didn't have conferences or so I started. But under all these pressure, right, to make inroads with these clients.
在08年的危机中，笑园度过了非常艰难的时期，错过了09年的反弹。我记得当时在08年的时候亏损了9、10%，考虑到金融服务行业受影响最为严重，这还算不错了。那是有史以来最严重的危机之一，而笑园正好处在风暴中心。然后我在接下来的一年里赚了大约25%。所以我拿到了奖金，不过整体表现仍旧不理想。笑园的走势非常低迷，我们前一年亏损了9到10%，后一年只赚了5%。因此我们遭遇了大额赎回，最终在最后关门了。整个过程只持续了18个月。我离开了那个备受瞩目的地方，加入了一个新的初创基金，但这个基金在18个月后也停止运营了。这真是糟糕透了。我之后加入了汇丰银行股权销售部门，在西海岸向大型基金销售欧洲股票。我遇到的问题是，我有一个非常出色的老板，但汇丰正试图进入市场，从Capital Group、Janice等大型基金那里获取所有这些交易。但我们的客户并不在乎汇丰的研究报告，而实际上这些研究报告通常一般般。我们没有举办研讨会之类的活动。我在巨大的压力下努力与这些客户取得联系。
So I started writing my own research on Friday evening. I was like, okay, I'm going to send out the HSBC spiel, you know, all, all week. And then Friday evening, I'm going to write my own thing. Okay. Let's see. What a compliance thing about that. I didn't ask them. And, and it kind of never came up. I knew that it might one day, but it, my boss saw that was working and he didn't make a big deal. Right. Other. Okay. Yeah. So I, but it started to work. And it's, and that was called your weekend reading and it was sent always on Friday evening. And so the last thing I did before I went home and that actually started to hit with the clients because it was different. And so that is the, the, how this, when I was redoing the personal revamp, I was like, I used to enjoy it, right? And I was like, right. It was one of the funnest thing I did all day, all week was writing this thing on Friday evening. And I was like, I'm going to do that again. So that was how it, that.
所以我从星期五晚上开始写我的研究。我想，好吧，我要发送汇丰银行的说明，你知道，整整一周。然后星期五晚上，我要写我自己的东西。好的。让我想想。这对遵从方面有什么影响呢？我没有问他们。并且，这个问题似乎从来没有出现过。我知道有一天可能会出现，但是，我的老板看到我在工作，并没有大惊小怪。其他的。好吧。是的。所以我开始工作了。而这被称为你的周末阅读，总是在星期五晚上发送。所以在我回家之前做的最后一件事实际上开始受到了客户的欢迎，因为它与众不同。这就是当我在重新设计个人形象时，我意识到，我过去常常享受这个事情，对吧？我想，是的。这是我一整天、一整周中最有趣的事情之一，就是在星期五晚上写这个东西。我想，我要再做一次。这就是我重新开始这个的方式。
And so basically then from, from HSBC, I wanted to get back on the buy side and a friend of mine had started super contrarian guy. He's, you know, had, that's got nothing to do with Africa. He was a trade XSAC guy from New York. And he was investing his own money in Africa. And he said, Eric, let's start in Africa. I want to start an Africa fund. You, um, you know, I've seen you manage money in volatile markets and you did okay. So why don't you run my Africa public? Why don't you, we're going to do public and private Africa. Could you, could you run the public start this public fund for us? So that's how that started. Um, it was kind of like, I was trying to get back on the buy side, but I was having a struggle because I had been at this hedge fund that had closed and left passport. Now that HSBC is a broker and it was just a mess. Like people want to clean resume and it wasn't clean, right? Um, so, so I was like, okay, I see this opportunity. I always kind of like the merging markets and adventure.
因此，基本上从汇丰银行那里，我想要回到买方，我的一个朋友开始了一个极具反向投资风格的项目。他是一个来自纽约的XSAC交易者。他在非洲投资了自己的资金。他说，埃里克，我们来在非洲开始吧。我想建立一个非洲基金。你在波动市场中管理资金做得不错。为什么不来管理我们的非洲公共资金呢？我们打算做公共和私人投资。你能管理这个公共基金吗？这就是事情是怎么开始的。我试图回到买方，但是却遇到了困难，因为我之前在的那家对冲基金关闭了，而HSBC又是一家券商，情况一团糟。人们都希望看到干净的简历，而我的简历并不完美。所以，我看到了这个机会。我一直喜欢新兴市场和冒险。
So I was like, I'll do this. And so that's how I got into Africa starting in 2013. And you were there for eight years. Went through a lot of times in there. Yeah. A lot of times, a lot of travel and crazy. Yeah. And we will, we'll talk about it because I think it really shaped some of your beliefs about markets. I actually want to, why don't we, why don't we jump on to the two letter? Yeah. So you know what? That's actually a perfect start. And one of the things that I was talking to you about earlier before we started the show was that you kind of highlighted the Zimbabwe inflation. And I think a lot of people, they hear that and they go, Oh, a project is Zimbabwe. And they assume that you're, you're kind of predicting some sort of dire, you know, end of the US dollar crazy inflation. And it's anything but that. And I just, I would love to hear how your experience of inflation has, you know, crafted your ability of, in terms of looking at the markets and maybe what a lot of people are getting wrong now is looking through everything with this kind of disinflationary lens, whereas you say we should actually be looking at it through an inflationary lens and explain how you kind of, what you learned in Africa that's made your investing today different in them in developed markets.
所以我想，我会做这个。这就是我从2013年开始涉足非洲的方式。你在那里呆了八年。在那里经历了很多时光。是的。很多时候，很多旅行和疯狂的经历。是的。我们会谈论这个，因为我认为这确实塑造了你对市场的一些看法。我实际上想要，为什么我们不先谈谈通胀？是的。你知道吗？那实际上是一个完美的开端。之前在节目开始之前，我和你谈到了津巴布韦的通胀问题。我觉得很多人听到这个，他们就会觉得，哦，一个项目就是津巴布韦。他们就会假设你在预测美元的结束，疯狂的通货膨胀。但实际上情况并非如此。我想听听你对通胀的经验是如何影响你看待市场的能力的，也许很多人现在都在通过这种通缩的视角看待一切，而你却认为我们应该通过通胀的视角来看待它，并解释一下你在非洲学到了什么，让你如今在发达市场的投资方式有所不同。
Yeah. And I just want to say as a background, like I said, right? My up to that point, I had gone through many crashes, started my life had started, my crew had started with the 88, 98 Asia crisis, then it goes to the tech crash, then it's the financial crisis. Right. So I'd, I'd been through, I was quite bearish about things and always kind of, I think fearful of a crack of a, like the market was about to do that again, right? Cause it's kind of in the, and I think a lot of people have that, have had that experience. Oh, a hundred percent. It's the prevailing view, right? Like everyone always is thinking about the left tail. Yes. And, and, and I'm aware of my own history of this, right? And so, but what is in Bob way as an exact, you know how cartoons right sometimes make a point by exaggerating something, right? So some Bob way, some Bob way was that for me.
是的。我只是想说一下我的背景，就像我说过的一样，对吧？在那之前，我经历了许多次崩溃，我的生活开始了，我的团队从88年亚洲金融危机开始，然后是科技崩盘，接着是金融危机。对。所以我经历过很多事情，对事物持悲观态度，总是有点害怕市场会再次崩溃，对吧？因为它有点在，我认为很多人都有这种经历。哦，百分之百。这是主流观点，对吧？每个人总是在考虑左尾。是的。我也意识到自己对此的历史，对吧？所以，但是津巴布韦对我来说就像一个例证，你知道有时候漫画会通过夸大某些事物来表达观点，对吧？所以对我来说，津巴布韦就是这样一个例证。
And what it, what I was, and actually I've seen it across all of most of Africa. And what I know, what I saw was that the country, nothing was changing on the ground. There was no, what I kind of learned was actually, I say it now as bad is good. In one way, Zimbabwe seemed like things were getting worse, right? The power outages were getting worse. There was no, there was no investment going into the country. People were actually wanting to get out of their money out of the country. They were, there was no new business formation. There was no change in employment, the beer company. There was no change in the year number of beer leaders consumed. Um, but actually what happened was the market started to go up thousands of percent. And I saw, I saw the smart business owners buying businesses, leveraging them. And I saw them make fortunes in nominal wealth. I saw the guy, the vast majority of Zimbabweans who owned nothing just get totally left behind. And I, I was like, wow, this is, um, I go, this is actually the more important thing is, and as the, and as I kind of look at the US today, I go, it's this, when you see the, you know, it's like, I always used to think that markets went up when things were good, you know, the economy is doing well, people are employed, businesses are like, that's the, the economy, the market is a reflection of things being good. What I actually learned was Zimbabwe is, and, and with kind of the under, realizing the power of inflation is that actually the government spending money, money printing through the government, debts, debts, fiscal stimulus, the market can go up thousands of percent, and everything can be terrible. And actually the more terrible it is, the more the markets probably going to go up. Um, because also another angle with this is the, the central bank also is, feels the economy is frail and cannot stand rate increases.
我看到的情况是，事实上我在大部分非洲国家都见到过这种情况。我所知道的是，这个国家没有任何实质性的改变。我学到的一点是，现在我说的是坏事变好。在某种程度上，津巴布韦似乎事情越来越糟。停电情况越来越严重。没有任何投资进入这个国家。人们实际上想把资金转出这个国家。没有新的企业形成。就业率没有改变。啤酒市场也没有变化。但实际上市场开始上涨了数千百分比。我看到聪明的企业主购买企业，将其杠杆化。我看到他们在名义财富中赚取了巨额财富。大多数什么都没有的津巴布韦人却被彻底抛在了后面。我觉得，哇，这实际上更重要的是，当我看美国时，我觉得这，当你看到，你知道，我总是认为市场在事情变好时会上涨，经济状况良好，人们都有工作，企业繁荣，市场是事情好的反映。我实际上学到的是，津巴布韦和通货膨胀的力量之间的关系，实际上是政府通过支出、债务、财政刺激进行印钞，市场可以上涨数千百分比，而一切都可以变得糟糕。实际上情况越糟糕，市场可能就会上涨得更多。另一个角度是，央行也认为经济脆弱，无法承受利率上调。
So they let it, they let it go even when if they were really following their mandate, they would need to, um, raise rates above the rate of inflation, but they never do rarely do. And just to be clear, you are not calling for this to happen in the US. You're not expecting as Zimbabwe style inflation. But what you are saying is that at the margin, we might experience more inflation than we have over the last 10, 20, 30, 40 years.
所以他们让它发生，即使他们真的遵循他们的任务，他们需要提高利率高于通货膨胀率，但他们很少这样做。为了清楚起见，你并不是在呼吁美国发生这种情况。你也不希望发生津巴布韦式的通货膨胀。但你所说的是，在边际上，我们可能会经历比过去10年、20年、30年、40年更多的通货膨胀。
Yes. Yes. More, I think we're, I think we flipped our switch into some kind of higher inflation environment. And we may eventually end up as a, we're in the early, I mean, we might end up as a higher inflation down the road, but I'm not, I'm not saying that now. What I'm saying more is, I think let's open up our imagination that the S&P is going to 10,000 or something. Let's, let's open up in our imagination and go, where is all this money, this massive government spending going on now? There are the inflation reduction act, the chips act, the reindustrialization, where we could be going to, and I would have never thought post the financial crisis when the S&P was at 800.
是的。是的。另外，我认为我们现在处于某种更高通胀的环境中。最终可能会发展成为更高的通胀，但是现在我并不是在说这个。我想说的是，让我们打开想象，考虑标普500指数可能涨到10,000点之类的情况。让我们打开想象，想一想，这些大规模政府支出现在都去哪了？有降低通胀的法案、芯片产业法案、再工业化，我们可能会走向何方，我从来没有想过，在金融危机后标普500指数会涨到800点。
If someone said to you in 2008 that we're going to have a 12 year bull market, you never would have imagined it to think that S&P was going to go to 5,000. I, I, I, yeah, or just think back to March of 2020 when we were about to lock down with COVID and people were telling you that, oh, we're about to experience 19, 29 style unemployment. And, and so I also kind of think I go, and it's tough to do, right? But I also, so I, okay, this is, there's the assets was that there's kind of a personal message I would put to people.
如果有人在2008年对你说我们将会经历12年的牛市，你根本无法想象标普将会飙升至5000点。嗯，回想一下2020年3月我们即将因为COVID封锁，人们告诉你我们将经历1929年的失业水平，这也很难想象。因此，我想说，这是很难做到的，但我也认为，这是我的一种私人讯息，我想传达给人们。
I say, look, you can read lots of financial newsletters and advice and, you know, they're always telling you about the risk of, oh, what, you know, there's a risk that the Fed's going to raise rates more and the market could crash and it looks expensive in this and that. And I go, but there's another risk I want you to be very well aware of. And that's the risk of getting left behind. And that's the risk of you had your money in cash while the S&P went to 10,000 house prices in your neighborhood went up and you are get priced out of everything.
我想说的是，你可以阅读很多财经通讯和建议，你知道，它们总是告诉你关于风险，哦，你知道，有风险是美联储会进一步加息，市场可能会崩盘，它看起来在这方面很贵等等。但是我认为，还有另一种风险，我希望你非常清楚地了解。那就是被落在后面的风险。你的钱留在现金中，而标普指数却飙升至10,000，你所在社区的房价上涨，你将被房价排挤。
And that S&P 10,000 and that house price, 5 million from it, it trickles down into the price of coffee that you can't even afford a cup of coffee anymore. And that is another type of risk. We're always focused on the crash risk and the more difficult risk, I think is to take and as of this, I say that being very careful that tomorrow let the market go down 20%, right? And it would just, but I think the bigger picture that we're in is the government, we don't ever talk about balance budgets anymore, right? We don't ever talk about tax increases.
在这个场景中，标普500指数达到了10,000点，房价达到500万美元，这些价格涨涨不休，导致咖啡的价格也跟着上涨，甚至买一杯咖啡都负担不起了。这是另一种风险。我们经常集中讨论市场崩溃的风险，但更困难的风险是要承受这种局面，并且我要小心谨慎地说，明天市场跌幅达20%吧？那只是一小部分问题。更重要的是我们现在的局面，政府再也不谈平衡预算，再也不谈增加税收了。
There's been a step change in how we spend money. Like, I think the COVID checks, direct checks into your bank account, that was a whole new, we've kind of moved into a new level of spending and government stimulus of the economy. Yeah, like just think about the two presidential candidates right now. Neither one of them is right. And think back to like, you know, it used to be, oh, we got to balance the budget. We're worried about this. Nobody cares.
我们在花钱方面出现了一次重大的变革。就像我认为COVID支票，直接打入你的银行账户的那种方式，这是一种全新的方式，我们似乎进入了一个全新的消费水平和政府刺激经济的阶段。是的，就像想想现在的两位总统候选人。他们都不对。再回想过去，你知道，这些都是为了平衡预算的。大家以前担心这些，但没有人再在意了。
Look at, looking, for example, Nikki Haley ran on a thing where she was trying to emphasize a balanced budget and then this is going to be bad. And what good did that get her? And look at the congressional budget office, right? Like, I remember post-08 when the deficit was like 7% of GDP during the 2008 or 09, right in there when things, you know, and they were stimulating the economy and everything. And they projected that the, we get back to a balanced budget within three or four years, right? And I said, oh, that's never going to happen once they start spending on the, they actually got close.
看看，比如尼基·黑利就提出要强调平衡预算，结果怎么样了呢？看看国会预算办公室，对吧？我记得在08年后，赤字占国内生产总值的比例达到了7%，在那个时候，他们在刺激经济，然后预测我们将在三四年内再次实现平衡预算。我就说过，一旦他们开始支出，这是不太可能的。但事实上他们却做到了接近平衡。
They got to like two to three percent deficits in 2012. It did come back to their credit, right? Not to balance, but close, right? I look now. Okay, so now 2020 happens. And I think the deficit to GDP, I don't know, was 10 or some massive number, right? During all the stimulus. Now, when you look at the congressional budget, ops forecasts, there is no, it actually is going kind of down.
2012年他们的赤字达到了两到三个百分点。这对他们的信誉是有好处的，不是平衡，但很接近，对吧？我现在看了一下。好吧，现在到了2020年。我想赤字占国内生产总值的比例，我不知道是10还是某个巨大的数字，对吧？在所有的刺激措施中。现在，当你看国会预算，运营预测时，实际上是在下降的。
Like, there's no, there's not even a pretense of saying that we're going to get back, we're going to balance these budgets ever. They're not even pretending anymore. They're not even pretending anymore. And I'm like, wow, that's really new because they always used to pretend. And I didn't ever think that would get there. But they, at least were projecting it. And now we're not even projecting it. And this is the thing a lot of people are saying, like, what happens now if we get in a recession? Like, you're saying the baseline is five to six percent deficits during a normal year. And what, you know, so we're in a new era. And I feel, and then, you know, my internal feeling is more towards, I want to have every dollar I can invested in the market. I don't want in things I believe in, but, and I also want to try to leverage up and buy more properties somehow. I feel like I want to be, I feel like the risk is more on the asset price going upside. Okay.
就好像，根本没有，甚至连假装说我们会回到，我们会平衡这些预算的情况都没有。 他们甚至不再假装了。我就觉得，哇，这真是新鲜，因为他们过去总是假装。我从来没想过会变成这样。但他们至少曾经计划过。而现在我们连计划都没有。很多人都在说，如果我们陷入经济衰退会怎么样？你们说，正常情况下，每年的赤字率是五到六个百分点。 那，你知道，所以我们正处在一个新的时代。我感觉，而且，你知道我的内心感觉更倾向于，我希望能将每一美元都投资到市场中。我不想投资那些我相信的事物，但是，我也想尝试一些杠杆，以某种方式购买更多的房产。我觉得我想要，我觉得风险更多的是资产价格上涨。 好。
Can you actually, when you're, you know, you mentioned that, do you want to lever up some stuff? You told a great story the other day when I watched your interview with Kapi from a year ago, and you told a great story about when your original investor that went into Africa, and he was a conservative guy, and he just wanted to pay cash for stuff. And then he realized, no, actually, I need to go find good cash flowing assets that I can lever up. And that's how I make my money. Can you explain to us that kind of revelation that he had? Yes. He, he loved shorting things. This guy was so, yeah, he was very conservative financially. He always had his private bankers, always used to bother him that he had so much money in cash in the US. He didn't, you know, he missed. So he, and he was always wanting to short things, just as two background data points. And he, he started out investing in Africa, and I didn't talk to him for a long time. And then, I came back and he was doing this, I should say his business partner kind of got him into this. And, and I should say the story was that I was, I was visiting a bank in Zimbabwe, and I was talking to them about my friend's business partner. And they'd been acquiring businesses in Zimbabwe, building up a bit, and the, and the banker had said, oh, yeah. That guy is in here all the day, every day trying to borrow more money. As soon as he buys a business, he comes in here for us alone to borrow more money. And, and then I was speaking to my friend, he's like, yeah, what I realized was we're not, we're, it's actually what we are doing is we're shorting the currency.
当你说到这个时，你真的可以，你知道的，你想要杠杆一些东西吗？我看了你一年前与Kapi的采访，你讲了一个很好的故事，关于你原始的投资者进入非洲，他是一个保守的人，只想用现金支付。然后他意识到，不，实际上，我需要找到好的现金流资产，然后我才能赚钱。你能解释一下他当时的这种领悟吗？是的，他喜欢做空交易。这个人在财务上非常保守。他的私人银行家总是在烦恼，因为他在美国有那么多现金。他不知道怎么用。所以他总是想做空交易。他开始在非洲投资，有一段时间我都没有和他联系。然后我回来了，他正在做这个，我应该说是他的商业伙伴把他带进来的。我应该说故事是这样的，我当时正在津巴布韦的一家银行，我正在与他们讨论我朋友的商业伙伴。他们一直在津巴布韦收购企业，积累一些资产，银行家说，哦，是的，那家伙每天都在这里，每天都在努力借更多的钱。一旦他购买一个企业，他就会来这里借更多的钱。然后我跟我的朋友谈过，他说，是的，我意识到我们实际上做的是在做空货币。
We're not really, the, we're not making money on the business. We're making money on the currency losing value. The business is just doing its thing and holding value with a real money creation is on, is on the fall in the currency and the fall in the nominal value of the current. Right. Or, or you could say it another way, it's, they're borrowing at a rate less than inflation. Right. He, and he had totally flipped to this now, was trying to like be as leveraged as possible in local currency. He saw the game, he learned the game was to buy things and borrow against them. And that was how you made money. And, you know, bringing this back to the current environment.
我们实际上并不是通过业务赚钱，而是通过货币贬值来赚钱。业务只是在稳定价值，真正赚钱的是货币贬值和名义价值下跌。或者，你可以说另外一种方式，他们以低于通货膨胀率借款。他完全改变了想法，试图尽可能地在本地货币中进行杠杆。他看到了游戏规则，学会了通过购买东西并抵押它们来赚钱。这就是赚钱的方法。将这个想法带回当前环境。
And I think it's funny that you say that that I want to buy things and borrow against them because if anything, the prevailing attitude is the opposite. People are still buying bonds in an inverted yield curve because they expect inflation and the economy to fall. Right. And I'm, and you're saying that's nuts. You guys should go in the wrong way. I know it's weird, right? But I am here in London and the price, the property market's been kind of soggy for a while.
我觉得很有趣，你说我想购买东西然后借钱反对它，因为实际上，普遍的态度是相反的。人们仍在购买债券，因为他们预期通货膨胀和经济会下降。是的。而你却说这是疯狂的。你们应该走错了方向。我知道这很奇怪，对吧？但我现在在伦敦，房地产市场已经有一段时间表现低迷。
And I'm like, I think you should be trying to scramble every dollar you can to buy as many properties as you can while they're doing nothing. And because I think we're going to like, just as the money is created, the prices of properties will go up. And you should take this opportunity. And if you can buy a piece of property, if a buy it up flat here for 500,000 pounds and borrow 300 against it, you know, you know how it is. And that 500,000 pound property will be a million in five years and the $300,000 debt will be what it is. And you'll have made, you know, whatever the equity is, 700,000. So I think this is, and that's what happens in inflation.
我觉得你应该尽可能挤出每一分钱来购买尽可能多的房产，因为现在没有做什么。我认为随着货币的创造，房产价格会上涨。你应该抓住这个机会。如果你可以以50万英镑买下一处房产，并借出30万，你知道的，这个50万的房产在五年内会升值到100万，而30万的债务将保持不变。你将获利70万英镑。我认为这就是通胀的发生过程。
So that's I, I, and in the stock market, you can look at it and go, who are the levered bets on this, on the market going up? Like we talked negatively about private equity firms. And I'm like, well, they're actually levered bets on money creation. I never thought about that. Like, I want to, BlackRock, I want to own KKR. They are going to, you know, if what do they manage a trillion dollars right now at KKR? I don't know what the number is, right? It'll be 8 trillion. And with a little bit of operating leverage, you know, think how much, how much that stock's going to go up just as we go S&P 10,000, S&P 15,000.
这就是我，我在股市中可以看到并思考，谁在做市场上涨的高杠杆押注？就像我们之前对私募股权公司持负面态度。但他们实际上是做金钱创造的高杠杆押注。我从未想过这一点。比如，我想要拥有BlackRock，我想要拥有KKR。他们目前管理着多少资产？我不知道具体数字是多少。也许是8万亿？再加上一点经营杠杆，可以想象当S&P指数达到10,000点，15,000点时，这些股票将会涨多么多。
What, what stocks might even move at multiples of this? You know, you bugger. I hated those companies. Now I'm like, I know, I do the, I do the, I know the negative thing. I understand the negative thing, but I also pitched, I also think the other way I go, what if this is like the actual, the actual unsustainable thing is not that the market is unsustainable and it's going to fall down, but actually, you know, what if we're, it's going to get more stupid and actually, yeah.
什么，可能哪些股票甚至可能以这个倍数移动？你知道，你这个家伙。我讨厌那些公司。现在我觉得，我知道，我做这个，我了解负面的事情。我理解负面的事情，但我也表达其他想法，我会想，如果这是实际情况，实际不可持续的事情不是市场不可持续并且会下跌，而实际上，你知道，它会变得更加愚蠢，而且实际上，是啊。
Well, the unsustainable thing is yields at these levels, I would argue. Because if, if, if as more people recognize what you say, like, let's just imagine you're right for the first second. That implies more demand for credit. People will take out more loans. They will take out loans to go out and buy assets. So that is, like, in essence, what we're going to experience, if that was to be the case is that the long end goes down and price up and yield. Yes. It should to some extent go up. Right.
我认为不可持续的地方在于这种水平的收益率。因为如果越来越多的人认同你所说的，就像，让我们想象你是对的。那就意味着对信贷的需求增加。人们会申请更多贷款。他们会借贷去购买资产。所以，本质上，如果这种情况发生，我们将会遇到的情况是，长期收益率下降，价格上涨。是的，应该会在某种程度上上涨。对吧。
All right. Let's talk about some individual stocks. Let's start with Barclays. And I must say, like, again, I'm going to bring up my buddy, Cuppy's like, when I heard, when he heard, I was interviewing you, he said, Oh, ask him about Barclays. It's a great call. And I, and I went and read it and I was like, Jesus. Cuppy's right as usual. This is a great call. Why don't you give us the bull case for Barclays? Okay. But it's also a interesting segue to the, on the macro side.
好的，让我们谈谈一些个别股票。让我们从巴克莱银行开始。我必须说，我要提到我的朋友Cuppy，当他听说我在采访你时，他说，哦，问问他有关巴克莱银行的问题。这是一个很好的选择。我去读了一下，我惊讶地发现，像往常一样，Cuppy是对的。这是一个很好的选择。你为巴克莱银行提出看涨的理由是什么呢？好的，但这也是一个有趣的过渡到宏观方面。
And what I think, why I'm interested in the European banks and Barclays was the one because it hasn't really moved yet. And the other ones have, have, have moved. But what I've, what I don't think people appreciate very enough is that post GFC, we had all this kind of stimulus, right, from the central bank, 0% interest rates, blah, blah, blah. And we're like, always surprised that there was no inflation, right? It didn't, it didn't actually create anything. And this, we didn't, we actually had 10 years of no inflation. Right. And what I think people don't realize is what in the other background was the pack, the backlash to the financial crisis on the banks, right?
我认为我对欧洲银行和巴克莱感兴趣的原因是，巴克莱还没有真正行动过。其他银行已经开始行动了。但我认为人们没有足够意识到的是，后全球金融危机时期，中央银行实施了各种刺激措施，利率为0%，等等。我们一直惊讶的是没有通货膨胀，实际上没有什么创造出来。我们经历了10年没有通货膨胀。人们没有意识到的是背景中金融危机对银行的反弹。
Everyone hated the banks. We can't, we can't ever let, we have to fight the last war. We can't ever let the banks bring us down to get. So there was a big change in capital regulations for banks. So when I started, the rule was a bank had to have a 4% tier one ratio. So 4% equity against your risk weighted assets. And I don't want to be technical, but think of risk weighted assets as assets, right? So whatever, you had to 4% equity against your assets. And to be a good bank, you had six, right? So you didn't have the bare minimum, you had just a bit above. The financial crisis happens and we're like, Oh my God, people have abused the system and 4 is too low. So post GFC, 4 goes to 10 in various steps of the Basel rules. And we've gone through Basel 1, Basel 2, Basel 3, we're now in the Basel 3.1. So with Jamie Diamond kicking and screaming the whole way up. Yeah. And so right. And no one liked, but so, but there was this pressure, right? So the tier one, mandatory tier one went to 10 from four and for systemically important banks. And I don't know if the U S I think the U S had this as well. It kind of went to 12. Okay. So, so if you were a big bank, it was kind of 12. And so you couldn't have 12. So you kind of had to have 14. So really the tier one ratio over time went from six to 14, which is hugely deflationary. Huge.
大家都恨银行。我们不能，绝对不能让银行，我们必须打击最后一战。我们不能让银行将我们拖垮。所以，对银行的资本监管发生了重大变化。所以当我开始时，规定是银行必须有4%的第一层资本比例。也就是说，对你的风险加权资产，你需要有4%的股本。我不想讲太技术性的东西，但可以把风险加权资产想象成资产。所以无论如何，你必须有4%的股本来抵抗你的资产。而且，想要成为一家好银行，你必须有6%。金融危机发生了，我们惊讶地发现，人们滥用了这个系统，4%太低了。因此，在全球金融危机后，根据巴塞尔协议规定，第一层资本比例从4%逐步提高到10%。我们经历了巴塞尔1、巴塞尔2、巴塞尔3，现在我们进入了巴塞尔3.1。而杰米·戴蒙一路上大声抗议。是的。但没人喜欢，但是有这种压力。对于系统性重要银行来说，第一层必须达到10%，而对于美国，我认为他们也有这项规定。可能达到了12%。如果你是一家大银行，那应该是12%。所以你不能只有12%，你必须有14%。所以随着时间的推移，第一层比率从6%到14%，这是非常通缩的。极其通缩。
So what happened? What did banks do? It was a mix of things. They raised equity. There were lots of rights issues around the financial crisis. TARP was a right forced injection of capital into the banks. The European banks didn't have TARP. So what they did is a couple rights issues. And then they basically kept their assets flat for over 10 years and very slowly retained capital and built the tier one ratio up over time. But if you look, biggest source of money, one of the biggest sources of money creation in an economy is banks lending and the accelerator and the money multiplier and that whole thing. European banks did nothing for 10 years. And a lot of the banks, you can look city banks same way. A lot of banks had to deleverage for multiple period time. And then we come. So we come and also we had zero percent interest rates, which was making it very hard to make money. So compressing the interest margins. You have your biggest thing is under pressure. You're having to retain capital. You can't grow your loan book. You're trying to deliver. It was terrible time. It was a 10 year bear market for banks. And they go to like 0.3 of book people hate them. No one wants to touch them. And you come out of the financial crisis. And you get a very sharp raise in interest rates, right? You get you go from zero percent, the ECB goes from zero to four or I think you're talking about coming out of COVID coming out of COVID, right? And even in the US going from zero to five and a half, right? And also you have.
所以发生了什么？银行做了什么？事情是多方面的。他们增加了股本。在金融危机期间有很多权益发行。TARP是对银行强迫性注入资本的权益发行。欧洲银行没有TARP。所以他们做了一些权益发行。然后他们基本上让自己的资产保持在10年以上的水平，并非常缓慢地积累资本，逐渐提高一级资本比率。但如果你看一下，一个经济体中钱的最大来源之一，就是银行的贷款，加速器和货币乘数以及这一整套东西。欧洲银行在10年间什么都没做。很多银行，你可以看一下花旗银行，也是这样。很多银行不得不在多个时期进行去杠杆化。然后我们来了。所以我们来了，而且我们有零利率，这使得赚钱变得非常困难。压缩了利率边际。你的最大问题受到了压力。你必须保留资本。你无法扩大贷款规模。你在努力交付。那是可怕的时期。对于银行来说这是一个10年的熊市。它们的市净率来到了0.3，人们讨厌它们。没人想碰它们。你走出金融危机。然后你看到利率非常快地上升，对吧？你从零上升到四，或者我认为你说的是走出COVID，走出COVID，对吧？即使在美国，也从零上升到五点五，而且你还有。
So I was like, oh, wait a second. This is very interesting. The banks and now and also, by the way, the banks have reached, you know, they're now this is kind of happened the year before they're over capitalized there. They're at 14 15 16% tier one ratios. Okay. So but but they were still not very profitable. And I was like, oh, but wait a second. Now this is transformational. You've gone from zero percent interest rates to four or five. Imagine you're you have a 90 basis point net interest margin. You're making 90 basis points spread between your assets and your liabilities. It is so much easier to make what one and a half or two percent when you're dealing with five percent when you're making a loan at seven and your depositors at three, it's just a different environment.
所以我当时就想，哦，等一下。这非常有趣。银行现在，顺便说一下，银行已经达到了过度资本化的程度，他们现在是在去年发生的这种情况下，他们的一级资本比率达到了14%、15%、16%。但是他们依然没有太多利润。我又在想，哦，但等一下。现在这是变革性的。从零利率到四或五利率。想象一下，你有90个基点的净利差。你在你的资产和负债之间赚取90个基点。当你以5%的利率借贷时，要比你以7%放贷、3%的存款的时候更容易实现1.5%或2%的收益。这是一个完全不同的环境。
When you go to the emerging markets, they have net interest margins of like four to five percent. Okay. When you have like you go to Brazil and the interest rates are at 15 and you know, you can you can make that kind. You can't do that when it's zero, right? When it's just negative in them. Yeah, negative. You're like, it's just there's no room to make that kind of spread. So this was like a different world. I was like, wow, I think they're going, this is your biggest line item. It's 60% of your revenues. And I think this could this revenue line could grow 50% or double. And also, they're not they're still not lending and they're over capitalized.
当你去新兴市场时，他们的净利息差大约是四到五个百分点。好的。当你去巴西，利率是15%，你知道，你可以赚到这样的利润。而如果利率是零，你就做不到了，对吧？当利率为负时更是如此。是的，负值。你会觉得，根本没有空间赚取这种利润差。所以这就像是一个不同的世界。我当时说，哇，我觉得他们的收入中这个项目相当重要。占到了60%的收入。而且我觉得这个收入项目有可能增长50%或翻倍。而且，他们依然没有放贷，而且他们过度资本化。
So the money's going to come back to the shareholder in dividends and share buybacks. I think that buybacks and the share and the dividends are going to be amazing. And what I but then getting to the macro piece, right? I was like, and this is one of the things I was saying is it's the banks are now making profits that they haven't seen in over 10 years. And but they're still kind of nervous, right? You know, the the dialogue in the market is like, Oh, can the economy handle hide these higher interest rates? We could have a recession any day.
所以这笔钱会以股息和股票回购的方式返还给股东。我认为股票回购和股息将会非常惊人。但在谈到宏观层面时，我想说的是，银行现在正在实现10年来都没有看到的利润。但他们仍然有些紧张，对吧？市场上的对话是：“哦，经济能承受得住这些较高的利率吗？我们可能随时会陷入衰退。”
So the banks have not been lending this money, this profits out or growing. So they've been doing share buybacks with this money. But I think there's a potential transition point coming where what happens when these banks who are sitting on profits they've never made before, they've been totally de-risked. Decide they want to grow their loan book again. They haven't grown their loan book for 12 years. This is another potential inflationary push tailwind that is going to come out of a banking sector that has been in hibernation in the dog house since the financial crisis.
所以银行并没有将这笔钱借出去，也没有让利润增长。他们用这笔钱进行了股份回购。但我认为可能会出现一个转折点，在这个转折点上，当这些银行决定要再次扩大他们的贷款规模时会发生什么。他们已经有12年没有增加过贷款规模了。这是另一个潜在的通胀推动因素，将从自金融危机以来一直处于待命中的银行业中涌现出来。
It's making money like never before. And it has more capital. I calculate by the year 2025, European bank, so sitting on $250 billion of excess capital, it's equivalent of $1.8 trillion in lending. That and I think let's get ahead of that. Where are the banks going to start to lend when they do? And so Barclays. So I played this through UD credit Santander Commerce Bank. And I was also Barclays is the one that hasn't moved yet. So I that's the Barclays is here's a bank at 0.4 of book value, four times earnings, making profits like it never has before. People are negative on the UK. And that's the, I'm like earnings are way too low on this bank. If two years from now, I think they're going to be making 40 to 50 p on a stock at that's trading at 170, what if this were to trade at eight or nine times earnings and basically you can it's very easy for this stock to be a four pound stock from 170. I say in the note, I say, let's say it goes to three pounds, which is plus 70%. But really, really, it's four or five, the book values for going to be four pounds 70. I'm like, I'm like, this is so not like it's pretty cheap.
从未赚过这么多钱。而且它拥有更多的资本。我估算到2025年，欧洲银行将拥有2500亿美元的过剩资本，相当于1.8万亿美元的贷款。我认为让我们提前看清这一点。当银行开始放贷的时候，他们会从哪里开始放贷呢？巴克莱银行。我通过UD信贷桑坦德商业银行进行了计算。而且巴克莱银行是仅有一家尚未行动的银行。所以我认为巴克莱银行是一家目前以0.4的账面价值四倍的盈利，以前从未赚过这么多利润的银行。人们对英国持消极态度，但我认为这家银行盈利能力太低了。如果再过两年，我认为他们可能会在一家股票上赚40到50便士，在此时170英镑的市场价格，如果它的市盈率为8或9倍，这只股票很容易就能从170英镑涨至4英镑。我在说明中说，假设它涨至3英镑，即增长70%。但实际上，它可能会达到4.5英镑，这样来看这只股票是非常便宜的。
Like within video, right? You're like, you're, there's so many unknowns, right? You've got to guess what AI chip demand is going to be three years. Have people over going to be higher. Don't worry. Has everyone over ordered or under ordered? No, never, not a chance. Right. And like what's the right number to put multiple to put on that? I hear you. There's so much imagination. Like, okay, here's an imagination for you. Do you think a bank that's earning a 10 or 11% ROE in two times in two years could possibly trade at 0.9 of book? I know, by the way, it used to trade at one to two times book. It's one of the premier banking franchises in the UK.
就像视频中那样，对吧？你知道，有太多未知因素，不是吗？你得猜测三年后的AI芯片需求会是多少。人们过度进货了吗？或者订货不足了吗？别担心，永远不会，没有可能。对吧，正确的数字是多少？我知道，有很多想象力。比如，你觉得一个在两年内ROE达到10或11%的银行可能以0.9倍的账面价值交易吗？顺便说一句，曾经它曾以1至2倍的账面价值交易。它是英国最优秀的银行之一。
And if you think it could get to possibly, if you could stretch your brain to think that it could go to 0.9 of book, you're probably going to make 150%. And you're going to get paid a five or six percent dividend yield and they will buy back shares. It's such a, but the problem with the trade and it's an investing thing is you have to actually sit there and do nothing for two years while all this AI is swirling around you. You have to sit on the boring UK bank and it goes back to Eric in 1999 sitting there with the boring UK bank with Bob Rosai saying you got to have like all this tech stuff.
如果你认为可能会变成这样，如果你能够伸展你的大脑以想象它可能达到0.9的价值，你可能会赚150％。而且你将得到五六％的股息收益，他们会回购股份。这很不错，但交易的问题在于，作为一种投资，你必须坐在那里两年，看着周围的一切人工智能。你必须手持那个乏味的英国银行，回到1999年的埃里克，和鲍勃·罗赛坐在那里说，你必须拥有所有那些技术东西。
And that's so I try to say as it, I'm going to lay it out for you. And I even put my models in my YWR because like I want you to see the compound effect of the share buybacks and how this plays out. And I want you to see the numbers because I think the hardest thing for you is going to be retaining your attention and to actually make you stay in the trade to have made the money and not wandering out six months from now because some other thing, you read some other thing and then you know what I mean?
这就是为什么我试图讲清楚，我要给你解释清楚。我甚至在我的YWR中放入了我的模型，因为我想让你看到股份回购的复合效应以及它是如何发挥作用的。我想让你看到这些数字，因为我认为对你来说最困难的事情将会是保持注意力，并确实让你留在交易中赚钱，而不是在六个月后因为其他事情而离开，你知道我的意思吗？
Yeah, it's like a dog going to the park and seeing a squirrel. This is a good idea, but you are not going to be sexy. It's not sexy. You're going to all these and you're going to say I own this bank. Is it doing anything new? Is it having a new app? Not really? Does it? You know, I have this I have this strategy I'm working on with my with a business partner. And he said to me, the returns are solid but not sexy. And I said, you've been asking my wife about me again, having you. That's what this is like solid but not sexy.
是的，就像一只狗去公园看到松鼠一样。这是个好主意，但你不会显得性感。没有性感的感觉。你去这一切，然后说我拥有这家银行。它有什么新东西吗？有新的应用程序吗？不是吗？你知道，我正在和我的商业伙伴一起研究这个策略。他对我说，回报是稳固的，但不性感。我说，你又找我妻子打听我了，对吧。这就像是稳定但不性感。
All right, let's talk about another solid but not sexy dividend, the dirty dividends portfolio. What is that? How does that work and what are they? Yeah, I am. That started from looking at the sectors in. Well, it started partly my revulsion to ESG as a as a trend in Europe. Okay, wait, let's talk about that before let's start there. Your revolution, like you meaning that you were just seeing what was happening and saying this is ridiculous? Yes, I am.
好的，让我们谈谈另一个稳定但不太吸引人的股息，即“肮脏股息”投资组合。这是什么？它是如何运作的？它们是什么？是的，我是。这源自我对ESG作为欧洲的一种趋势感到厌恶。好吧，等一下，让我们先谈谈这个。你的厌恶，你是指你只是看到发生的事情然后说这太荒谬了？是的，我是。
Well, I mean, it's a what I what I what I don't like is I feel it's layering in a lot of personal preferences. It's a weird. It's a weird change to put the asset manager in terms of implementing a value system over or over many things over many topics that actually every society has legal rules around, right? Well, and not only that, I've argued as well that it should really be the consumer. Like, why are you doing it to the asset manager?
我是说，我不喜欢的是我觉得它在很多个人偏好上进行了层层堆叠。这是奇怪的。从资产管理者的角度来看，实施一个价值体系在许多事情上实际上是每个社会都有法律规则约束的一个奇怪的改变，对吧？而且不仅如此，我还争辩说，应该是消费者。为什么要对资产管理者这么做呢？
Like, if you believe this, don't buy that product. Yes, yes. Yes, exactly. Right. Why are we doing it? Yes, exactly. If you think there shouldn't be carbon combustion cars, don't buy them. Yeah. And don't put that. Don't try to do this in a backdoor way through the asset manager. Look, if society thinks there's a problem with carbon emissions, there's environmental agencies to deal with this. If society thinks there needs to be cannot be discriminated, there are anti discrimination laws in hiring practices.
如果你相信这个观点，就不要购买那个产品。是的，是的。对，就是这样。为什么我们要这么做？是的，就是这样。如果你认为应该禁止使用燃烧汽车，就不要购买它们。是的。而且不要这么做，不要试图通过资产管理者暗中操作。看，如果社会认为碳排放是一个问题，有环境机构来处理这个问题。如果社会认为不能有歧视，雇佣实践中有反歧视法律。
There are environmental rules, environmental agencies that handle these. There are regulated bodies to handle all of these issues. It's not the asset manager to come in and decide what a board of directors is supposed to look at like by gender and race. All of these things I have just kind of, but it's not a very popular political view, right? Well, I think though that you're not against society choosing those things, you're against the way we're implementing them.
存在着环境规定，负责处理这些问题的环境部门。有专门机构来处理所有这些问题。并不是资产管理者来决定董事会应该注重性别和种族等因素。虽然我刚才说了这些事情，但这并不是一个很受欢迎的政治观点，对吧?嗯，我觉得你并不反对社会选择这些事情，而是反对我们实施的方式。
You're not saying I don't believe in those things. You're saying I don't believe that that's the most efficient way to enact those changes in our society. Yes. And yes. And the other side effect of this is that certain sectors of the market became considered not very ESG friendly or on the wrong side of ESG. They were autos, mining stocks, big energy and banks. Banks were just unlike for other reasons, not really anything to do with ESG.
你的意思不是我不相信那些东西。你说的是我不相信那是在我们社会实现这些变革的最有效方式。是的。而且是的。另一个副作用是，市场的某些部门被认为不太友好于ESG或是站在ESG的错误一边。汽车、矿业股票、大能源和银行属于这个范畴。而银行的情况是因为其他原因，与ESG实际上并没有太大关系。
And so in 2022, I noticed these sectors were trading at a P.E. of five to seven times. It was there. They were trading at the lowest. They were the lowest absolute P.E. in the market. And they were way off the chart relative to their own past. And I was like, wow, these four sectors are just an extremity in the value case. And I called them the untouchables. Like no one wanted to own mining stocks. No one wanted to own big energy. No one wanted to own car companies.
因此在2022年，我注意到这些行业的市盈率是五到七倍。它们被定价得非常低。它们是市场上最低的。相对于它们自己过去的表现，它们的市盈率比值远远超出了标准。我想，哇，这四个行业仅仅是价值案例中的一个极端。我把它们称为“触摸不得的”。就像没有人愿意拥有采矿股，没有人愿意拥有大型能源公司，没有人愿意拥有汽车公司一样。
And I said, I think I was telling my wife about this. And she goes, I said, you know, what, the mining stocks that own coal and no one wants like Glencore, for example. She said, no, I said, nobody will own this company because they own coal mines in Australia. And they're actually no new coal mine. There's actually still coal-fired power plants being built in Vietnam and India and China. And the demand for coal is actually probably going to grow despite the, and yet there are, there's a declining supply of coal. So I think it actually, the coal prices actually could do quite well counterintuitively. And she's like, oh, I love that idea. Let's do it. I was like, you got a keeper there. Yeah, usually on the live get your dime about your empty industry. He's like, that's supposed to own coal companies. He has like, I was like, no, you're like really not like, oh, it's like, no, let's do it. And so we bought a portfolio of car companies, banks, Glencore. Yeah, so it's, it's, it's banks, it's Glencore, it's Mercedes Benz, British Petroleum, Total, to old tobacco stocks. That was the other thing we bought. She's like, she's really wanted dividend. She's like, I just want checks coming in. And she's like, we've done some screen. And she's like, what about Altria? One of, you know, that seems like it has a high dividend. I was like, yeah, let's do that. British American tobacco, let's do that. Then she read about engine, which is heart disease. And she goes, I think people are just going to be fat and eat too much junk food. And let's like own a company that has heart disease drugs. And I don't really know much about biotech was like, yeah, that's cool. It's actually done. Okay. So we have this portfolio. I call it the dirty. It's like, it's, it has a, it has a dividend yield of 7.5%. The average PE is six. And it is 45% European banks. It's 20% big energy, 11% coal, 10% autos, 9% life insurance, and 2% tobacco and 1%, 2% heart disease, right? Just all the heart disease, tobacco, coal, vague energy. And it's done really well, like. So that's your goal. I love that your wife's involved in this and picking these terrible stock, not terrible, but these anti ESG stocks with you. Yes. All right. Okay.
然后我说，我记得我告诉我的妻子这件事。她说，我说，你知道吗，那些拥有煤矿但没人想要的采矿股份，比如Glencore。她说，不，我说，没有人会持有这家公司，因为他们在澳大利亚拥有煤矿。实际上并没有新的煤矿项目，但越南、印度和中国仍在建设燃煤电厂。实际上，尽管供应下降，对煤炭的需求可能会继续增长。所以我认为，煤炭价格实际上可能会表现得相当不符合直觉。她说，哦，我喜欢这个想法。我们来做吧。我说，你真是个不错的选择。是的，通常人们都在谈论你的过时行业，却不知道该持有煤炭公司。他说，是的，我说，从来不会像你这样，哦，好的，我们来做吧。于是，我们买了一揽子汽车公司、银行、Glencore，是的，银行、Glencore、梅赛德斯-奔驰、英国石油、Total，还有传统烟草股。那就是我们买的东西。她说，她真的想要分红。她说，我只想要持续收支入账。她说，我们做了一些调查。她说，Altria怎么样？一家看起来股息很高的公司。我说，是的，我们假装这么做。英美烟草，我们也做。然后她了解了高血压引起的心脏病，她说，我想人们会变胖，吃过多垃圾食品。我们来拥有一家有心脏病药物的公司。我并不熟悉生物科技，但我说，是的，这个想法很酷。事实上，这个想法执行得不错。所以我们有了这个投资组合。我称之为“肮脏”。它的股息率为7.5%，平均市盈率为6，其中有45%的欧洲银行、20%的大型能源、11%的煤炭、10%的汽车、9%的人寿保险、2%的烟草和1%的心脏病，对，全部都是心脏病、烟草、煤炭、能源。它表现得非常好，就像这样。所以这就是你的目标。我喜欢你的妻子参与，和你一起选这些“糟糕”的股票，不是糟糕，但是这些反ESG（环境、社会、公司治理）的股票。是的，没错。好的。
So one of the, let's talk about it. We'll go and put you on the hot seat again. Last year, you called the 2023, was this surprise market was Japan was the surprise market for 2023.
所以，让我们来谈谈这件事。我们再次让你上场。
去年，你称2023年，日本是2023年的惊喜市场。
This year for 2024, you have another country and it's probably just as controversial as your anti ESG call. Yeah. I am the surprise market for 2024 is China. And I think the setup is really interesting. It's everything, Kevin. It's, I mean, you know, it's the sentiment towards, it's the valuations, the stocks have never been cheaper. The sentiment is terrible. It is. So you have this country. It's the second largest economy in the world. Okay. It's also the second largest financial market in the world for both equities. For fixed income, it might be third behind Japan, right?
今年2024年，你又要涉足另一个国家，可能和你押注反ESG一样备受争议。是的，我认为2024年的市场潜力之国将是中国。我觉得这个设定非常有意思。从各个方面而言，凯文，我是说，情绪、估值，股票从未如此便宜。情绪非常糟糕。所以你有这个国家，是世界第二大经济体。它同时也是世界第二大的金融市场，无论是股票还是固定收益，或许固定收益市场排在日本之后。
So I find this very interesting. I'm like, wow, this is the second, let's call it second, third largest financial market in the world, second largest economy in the world. And nobody owns it. It's not in ask any American, you know, do the surveys of the Black Rock Global Fund, the MSCI world. It's not in anybody's index. Nobody owns it. Fine. No one cares about China.
所以我觉得这非常有趣。我觉得哇，这是第二，我们可以称之为第二，第三大的金融市场，也是世界第二大经济体。但是没人占有它。任何美国人都不知道它，你可以调查一下黑石全球基金，或者明晟世界指数。它不在任何指数里。没人占有它。没关系，没人在乎中国。
But also you have, I think if this was the US, right, you have record low valuations, record poor sentiment, government China's didn't stimulate the economy, central bank, cutting rates, consumers, retail sitting on highest level of cash deposits ever, and the government thinking it's a social directive that they would like more investment into the stock market.
但我认为如果这是美国的话，你也会看到记录的低估值、信心严重不足、中国政府没有刺激经济、央行降息、零售消费者持有有史以来最高水平的现金存款，而政府认为增加对股市的投资是一项社会性的指导。
And meanwhile, when you actually look at company earnings of the banks, they're not down on an absolute basis. They're growing just slowly, right? And you're not seeing this. I thought there would be a financial crisis with Evergrande in 2020, when in 2020, the real estate crisis has turned into a crash for the developers, but really house prices have come down very little.
与此同时，当您实际上查看银行的企业收益时，它们并没有绝对下降。它们只是稳步增长，对吧？您没有看到这一点。我曾认为2020年会发生金融危机与恒大有关。当2020年，房地产危机转变为开发商的崩盘时，但实际上房价下跌很少。
Do you think that they've actually managed to like balance that? Well, because I think they wanted the developers to go to slow down and maybe go bankrupt? Yeah. And so are you arguing that they managed to achieve their goal of hurting the developers without hurting the average person in China?
你认为他们实际上已经设法实现了这一平衡吗？因为我认为他们希望开发者们放慢步伐，甚至可能破产？是的。那么你是在争论他们是否成功实现了伤害开发者的目标同时又不伤害中国普通人的目标吗？
Yeah, to some extent, yes. And the backstory of this also is I for so many years was the biggest China bear, right? Because I was like, oh my God, they are over building. This is insane. This is going to be a problem. And so for years and years, it didn't happen, right? And now it has. And I'm like, wow, this shoe finally dropped.
是的，在某种程度上是的。而且这背后还有一个故事，很多年来我一直是最坚定的中国悲观者，因为我觉得他们一直在过度建设。这太疯狂了，这肯定会成为问题。而多年过去了，一直没有发生，直到现在终于发生了。我想，哇，这只鞋终于掉下来了。
We had the crash. Hugh Henry was finally right. Right. I'm like, you know, this is great. And the problem is, or not that the reason it hasn't turned into the GFC, I mean, it could always, right? So I'm always like, you know, we've all been through enough rodeos that anything can happen.
我们遇到了崩溃。休·亨利最终是对的。对，我就像，你知道的，这很棒。问题是，并不是说它变成了全球金融危机，我是说，它总是可能的，对吧？所以我一直觉得，你知道的，我们经历过足够的风风雨雨，一切都有可能发生。
But what I've, it's like, we're like almost three years down the road and it kind of hasn't happened. And what I think the lack, the problem is, or not that Chinese mortgage property owners are not overleveraged like the U.S. Americans were in 08.
但是我已经发现，现在已经接近三年了，但这种情况好像还没有发生。我认为问题的根源并不是中国购房者像08年的美国人一样过度杠杆。
So there hasn't been this for selling transmission mechanism of the, from the actual property owner. So property prices have to actually not come down that much. They're like 7%. And so I, I'm like, okay, that's not that big a deal. And, and meanwhile, unemployment hasn't really changed much. What's, what's really been a crisis of confidence, what you see is that consumer loans have declined and consumer deposits have gone up.
因此，目前还没有卖出过实际物业所有权的传输机制。因此，房产价格实际上并没有下降太多，只下降了大约7%。所以，我觉得这并不是什么大问题。同时，失业率并没有发生太大变化。真正出现危机的是信心，你会发现消费者贷款有所下降，而消费者存款则有所增加。
And so I'm like, really, the Chinese consumer is just pulling back and he's nervous. And so he's just building up a ton of money that if he felt better and he had the animal spirits, he would spend it again. And so I, and that's also the thing about China. Because I've, I've been through multiple China bull markets that I didn't see coming. And, and, and, and, and so I, what I've thought about, what I realized about China is they don't need, you know, people go, well, you know what, I'm never going to invest in China. And my, and, you know, a lot of people are uncomfortable with China investing in it, you know, for the various reasons.
所以我觉得，实际上，中国消费者正在收缩，他感到紧张。所以他只是在积攒大量资金，如果他感觉好转并且有动物精神，他就会再次花钱。这就是中国的特点。因为我经历过多次中国的牛市，而我之前并没有看到。所以我认为，我意识到的是中国不需要，大家会说，“嗯，你知道吗，我永远不会在中国投资。”很多人对中国投资感到不舒服，因为各种原因。
We're going to have a Cold War. I don't like communism, whatever this now. And I, what I said, the thing about China is they don't need your money. They have 40% savings rate. They, the Chinese bull, Chinese market can go up 300% from here without you putting a dollar in. Right. So they actually have one of the biggest effects reserves in the world.
我们将会发生一场冷战。我不喜欢共产主义，无论现在如何。而且我说的是关于中国的事情，他们根本不需要你的钱。他们有着40%的储蓄率。中国的市场可以在你不投入一分钱的情况下上涨300%。所以他们实际上拥有世界上最大的外汇储备之一。
So, and Chinese can, you know, are sitting on bank, they don't, that market, and they love to gamble. They have the animal spirits. They have the cash. It's like the, the wood is piled up and the gas is on it. It just needs a match. And so that's why I'm like, this market could be very interesting. And so that's my surprise market for 2023 is that China could really go. I think it's a great call. I think it's awesome in terms of like thinking outside the box, be willing to say what other people aren't willing to say.
所以，中国人可以说，在银行里坐着，他们不关心那个市场，他们喜欢赌博。他们有动物精神。他们有现金。就像有一堆木头，上面泼了汽油。只需要一根火柴。所以我觉得，这个市场可能会很有趣。所以，我对2023年的意外市场是，中国可能会真正起飞。我认为这是一个很棒的预测。我认为这种超越传统思维、敢于说出别人不敢说的话的行为很棒。
One of the things that I worry about with them is that I worry they're making the same mistake that Japan did. And in the, in the 90s and the 2000s, and then subsequently Europe and the US did in that they keep trying to fix things with monetary stimulus instead of fiscal. Oh, and that's what I worry about because like, I thought I watched Richard Koo get interviewed. And Richard Koo was the fellow that wrote the balance sheet recession came up with the term. And he's like, Oh, no, I've been to China. They completely understand it. They get it. They're going to do fiscal stimulus because they realize they can't fix things with monetary stimulus when you have a lot of debt.
我担心他们会犯和日本、欧洲、美国一样的错误，他们一直试图用货币刺激来解决问题，而不是财政刺激。我担心的是，我看过理查德·库被采访过。理查德·库是那个提出平衡表衰退概念的人。他说，哦，不，我去过中国。他们完全理解这一点。他们会采取财政刺激，因为他们意识到在债务累积时无法用货币刺激来解决问题。
And so I've been just waiting for them. You know, Richard Koo told me that they were going to do this. And yet they don't seem to be doing it. And I don't know if they're just like slow walking it. And it's just, it's just it's a, it's it or if it's a political choice. And that's what I worry about. I worry that it's a political choice or they're actually worried about their debt. And they're not going to do any fiscal stimulus because I think the moment they do fiscal stimulus, you're going to be right. But I just don't know when that moment is. And now maybe I'm, I'm, this is contrary to my own view.
所以我一直在等他们。你知道，Richard Koo告诉过我他们会这么做。但是他们似乎并没有这么做。我不知道是他们在拖延还是政治选择。我担心这是政治选择或者他们真的担心他们的债务。他们可能不会推出任何财政刺激措施，因为我认为一旦他们推出财政刺激措施，你会是对的。但我不知道那个时刻是什么时候。也许我现在是与自己的观点相悖。
But I wonder if actually they're doing the right thing, right? Because they were right to, to, to implode the property market. They were right that it was getting out of hand. And maybe doing what we did during COVID, like supergoosing the economy is not how you should manage the country. And maybe they say, I can see from this Chinese point of view, we're going to achieve 5.5% GDP. And that is perfectly fine. That is actually a great number. And we don't have to do anything crazy to do it. That's right. Right is wrong. And you know what, the property market and the property developers were out of hand and we've dialed them back.
但我在想，他们实际上是否做对了这件事，对吧？因为他们当时做对了，对于让房地产市场崩溃。他们当时确实是对的，因为情况已经失控了。也许像我们在COVID期间所做的那样，过度刺激经济并不是管理国家的正确方式。也许他们会说，我能从中国的角度看出，我们将实现5.5%的GDP增长。那是完全可以接受的。这实际上是一个很好的数字。我们不必做任何疯狂的事情来达到这个目标。对的。正确就是错误。你知道吗，房地产市场和开发商当时已经失控了，我们已经收敛了他们。
We had a semi a controlled implosion, but we're living through it. And we're actually doing, we're doing the prudent thing to grow in a sustainable way. You guys in the US are absolutely going on a roller coaster. You're overstimulating the economy. You're probably going to have a, you could have a whip back or a pullback where the stimulus falls out. You're kind of like a car on ice. You know what I mean? You're like sliding back and forth all over the place, very erratic, getting out of control. We're actually managing this much more responsibly. And I, so I, but it's not like a super juicing 300% move, right? When you act like that. As a trader, right? You're saying, look, you're not, it's not doing the, it would really go if you actually pumped on the gas a bit more. Right. But it could still be a good trade. And listen, I'm with you. I get it. And I think you're correct in that analysis that on the whole, they are actually rebalancing their economy without a crash.
我们经历了半控制爆炸，但我们正在度过这一阶段。实际上，我们正在采取谨慎的方式可持续发展。在美国，你们绝对是在过山车般的体验。你们正在过度刺激经济。可能会出现反弹或者回撤，刺激措施可能会失效。你们就像是在冰上的车，明白我的意思吗？来回滑动，非常不稳定，失控。我们实际上在更加负责任地管理这一切。作为交易者，你们在说，看，如果你们再多加点油门，它就会真的起飞起来。但它仍然可能是一个好操作。听着，我明白。我认同你的分析，整体上说，他们正在实现经济再平衡而不会发生崩溃。
And yeah, and a lot of things that kind of people got mad about like the video game rules, like, you know, they were, they were slowing down the licensing and new video games and they didn't want as somebody, first person shooter games. And I was like, they're not wrong. I go, you know, I know that's not great for 10 cent, which is a video game company in the biggest. But I was like, it's a bit sensible, you know, you stick. Well, I just like the fact that they're on TikTok, they're, you know, whatever they're showing here is a lot different than what they're showing to the kids in China. Like they're, they're showing like how to make, you know, do some engineering or do some computers or whatever. And it's so.
是的，有很多让人生气的事情，比如视频游戏规则，你知道的，它们在减缓许可和新视频游戏的速度，而且他们不想让第一人称射击游戏。我就想，他们并没有错。我知道这对于中国最大的视频游戏公司腾讯来说并不好。但我觉得这有点合理，你懂的。我只是喜欢他们在TikTok上，你知道的，他们展示的东西与他们向中国孩子展示的东西有很大不同。他们展示如何进行一些工程或计算机之类的内容。这样感觉很不错。
And there's, you know, and this is one other point I forgot to say about the China trade. I am amazed. This is all kind of anecdotal, but I'm amazed about my daughter goes to a technical school in here in London. And I checked her into so first day of school, right? You know, we're taking all her for just moving her into her dorm room, right? And that the hall, there's 10 dorms, there's 10 rooms on this hall. And they put up a little sticker, the welcoming committee puts up a stick, a little sign on your door of your who you are, your name and a little flag of where you're from and what you're going to study. And so I was kind of wandering around the hall, looking at all the doors. And she was the only American fine. We're in London, but out of 11 doors, I would say seven were from China, Hong Kong, Taiwan or Singapore. And it was all computer engineer and all top and stuff. And it was like two kids from India and like one other girl from the from the UK.
还有一点是关于中国贸易我忘了说的。我很惊讶的是，这都是一些趣闻轶事，但我很惊讶我的女儿在伦敦的一所技术学校读书。我把她带到学校第一天，对吧？我们把她送到宿舍房间里，对吧？那个走廊有10个宿舍，这个走廊有10间房间。迎新委员会在你的房门上贴上一个小贴纸，上面写着你的名字和你来自哪里以及你将要学习的专业。所以我在走廊上溜达，看着所有的门。她是唯一一个美国人。我们在伦敦，但在11个门中，我想说有7个来自中国、香港、台湾或新加坡。而且他们都是计算机工程师，都很优秀。还有两个来自印度的孩子和另一个来自英国的女孩。
I went to an artificial, you know, a night the other night I was at this university look kind of meeting the research, learning about the research you're doing. I'm amazed at how I'm sorry, I put on one of these posts. I was looking at the amount of patents by country trend in patent granting. China has gone vertical. It has exceeds the amount of technological patents of every other country by like it's 100% higher than the next highest thing, which is the US. And it happened in the last three or four years. And I'm looking at these kids and like looking, you know, going to these nights where the university is demonstrating the top AI research and stuff like that. And like a lot of them are Chinese.
我有一天晚上去了一个人工智能的地方，你知道的，我在这所大学参加了一个类似会议，了解他们正在进行的研究。我被吓到了，对不起，我在这里讲了这么多。我看了一下各国专利数量的趋势和专利授权情况。中国的专利数量呈垂直增长。它超过了其他任何国家的技术专利数量，比如美国高出100%以上。而且是在过去的三四年里发生的。我看着这些孩子们，参加这些大学展示顶尖人工智能研究等活动的场合。很多人都是中国人。
And I go, you know, here we're talking about the market. I'm like, okay, we have all these stocks, they're cheap and this and that. But I'm like, another layer to this angle is, you know, we all like the amount of, you know, innovation that these guys are the are mastering the highest of the highest, like with Africa, right? I would also, I would often hear like pitching an Africa, right? Like a common thing was, well, there's no tech stocks in Africa, there's no Apple, it's beer companies in cement. And so I don't care. I want innovation, I want tech, I want the new new, right?
我会说，你知道吗，我们这里在谈论市场。我会说，好吧，我们有所有这些股票，它们便宜等等。但我觉得，另一个层面的角度是，你知道，我们都喜欢这些人掌握的最高水平的创新，比如在非洲。我经常听到他们推销非洲，对吧？比如，一个常见的说法是，非洲没有科技股，没有苹果，只有啤酒公司和水泥公司。但我不在乎。我想要创新，我想要科技，我想要新的新东西，对吧？
And I'm like, yeah, well, it's cheap. And I think it can still work regardless. But that was that problem, right? And I go, China, these guys are on the cutting edge of every single thing, AI, EV, whatever you name it, they are going next level on it. And I'm even seeing the future, the kids that you don't even know, are Chinese too. Like the guys that are inventing stuff. Now the pushback, you could say is, well, but it's not just about, you know, the guy learning, it's the ecosystem, right? It's the Silicon Valley, it's the, you know, the, the, the market and the whole thing. And you know, two smart guys in Silicon Valley can do more than 10 guys sitting in Shanghai where the government hates them or whatever the reason is, right?
然后我觉得，对，就是便宜。我认为它仍然能够运作，不管怎样。但问题就在于这里，是吧？我想到了中国，这些家伙在每件事上都处于前沿，人工智能，电动车，不管你说什么，他们都在进行提升。我甚至看到了未来，那些你甚至不认识的孩子也是中国人。就像那些发明东西的家伙。现在可以反驳的是，但问题不仅仅是关于一个人的学习，而是整个生态系统，对吧？它是硅谷，市场，整个系统。你知道，在硅谷的两个聪明人可以比上海坐在那里的10个人做得更多，因为政府讨厌他们或者其他原因是什么。
So maybe they get suppressed and the idea is down to much. And so they move to the US and it happens there. So I kind of buy that, but I'm like, gee, there is a tidal wave of Chinese scientists at these schools. And they're, I don't know where they're going to go or what they're going to do with this knowledge. But if it's another bullish thing for China, like if you're kind of wanted that it has the tech angle, goddess, what I'm saying in a long way. All right, you know, time's flying by. So we have to finish up here, Eric. So we're going to do our three questions that we end with.
也许他们受到抑制，这个想法被压制得太多了。于是他们移民到美国，事情在那里发生了。我有点相信这一点，但是我想，哇，这些学校里有一大批中国科学家。他们，我不知道他们会去哪里，或者他们会用这些知识做什么。但如果这对中国是另一个利好，如果你想要这有技术方面的倾向，我在用长篇大论的方式描述我的意思。好了，时间飞逝，我们要结束了，Eric。所以我们要做我们结束时的三个问题。
So first of all, what do you think is the hardest thing to do with trading and investing? Okay, we talked about sitting through long, you know, staying with things, but I'm going to say a different one. There's an expression in hedge funds. It's better to make a million than lose a million, which sounds stupid, right? But the, the point of the trade is this, the point of the expression is this. We often come up with great ideas that we have high conviction about, right? This, we think this thing is going to go from, it's going to go up 100%.
首先，你觉得交易和投资中最难的事情是什么？好的，我们谈过忍受漫长时间，但我要说一个不同的。在对冲基金中有一种表达：赚一百万比亏一百万更好，听起来很愚蠢，对吧？但这个交易的重点是这样的。这个表达的重点是这样的。我们经常会提出我们对之有很高信心的好主意，对吧？我们认为这个东西会涨至少100%。
And we're so convinced about it, we need to be huge in it because it could be life changing. But what happens, and so you get kind of too big, you get very big in the trade. The problem is, there's always some, not always, but most of the time, there is some unexpected event, some pause, some change in the story, something happens. And the stock instead goes down 25%, or some level of time, you go through a drawdown, right in between.
我们对此非常确信，我们需要在其中变得非常成功，因为这可能会改变我们的生活。但是发生了什么，你变得太过自信，你在交易中变得非常成功。问题是，总会有一些意外事件发生，有时候会有暂停，故事中会有变化，发生一些事情。而股票的价格会下跌25%，或者在一段时间内，你会经历亏损。
And the problem is, if you're too big in the position, you cannot take the pain and you absolutely freak out and sell on the lows. And so then two years later, just, you know, when you sit there and you go, oh, I was totally happened, right? I totally called that. I knew it was going to do that. And I would have made a million dollars if I, if I, oh, but instead, what actually happened, what actually happened is you lost a million because, you know, five months after you put the trade on, something happened, there was a oil, whatever happened, and you puked it.
问题是，如果你在那个位置太大了，你就受不了痛苦，绝对会在低点抛售。然后两年后，你坐在那里，想着“哦，我完全预料到了，我知道它会这样做的。”如果我当时这样做了，我就会赚到一百万美元。但实际上发生的是，你亏了一百万，因为你在交易五个月后，发生了某些事情，比如石油价格波动，你就抛售了。
And so your P&L was on that trade was not plus a million, it was minus a million. Yeah, as you got shaken off because you're too big. Yes. And so it's very important with sizing positions to just dial the greed back and really plan for what is it, what is the size that when something happens that I cannot predict, I will be able to hold on to this thing and make it through to the sunny to the other side and actually have made money on this trade because, and it may be not as much as I could be, but it's more likely I'll actually make it then lose it.
因此，你那笔交易的损益不是加一百万，而是减一百万。是的，因为你太大了，被甩掉了。因此，在确定头寸大小时，很重要的是要控制贪婪，真正计划好，当发生我无法预测的事情时，我能够坚持住这个头寸，度过难关，实际上能够在这笔交易中赚钱，可能不如我本来能够赚的那么多，但更有可能实际上挣到钱而不是亏损。
So that's my, that's a great tip. And I completely, as a guy that's been in the markets for a long time, I can tell you I have a lot of trades that I called right that I didn't take any real money out of. Yeah, no, you're absolutely right. You can, and I almost argue that the more confident you are on it, the worst you are at dealing with it because you're always too big. Oh, wow. Yeah. Right. Yes. Like I always say that, you know, I ended up making more of my second and third pick trades than the first.
这就是我的建议，非常不错。作为一个长期从事市场交易的人，我可以告诉你，我有很多交易是正确的，但我并没有从中赚取实际利润。是的，你说得对。我几乎可以说，你对某个交易越自信，处理它的能力就越差，因为你总是过于冒险。哦，哇。是的。就像我经常说的，你知道，我最终从第二和第三个交易中赚取的比第一个要多。
Yes. I think, yes. I think any kind of analysis when they start doing AI on portfolios and stuff, I think that's one of the things they'll find that people make more money on the second and third tier ranked ideas. Right. All right. Don Cox used to say that you shouldn't invest on what is on page one today, but what is on page 16 on its way to page one tomorrow. Do you have any trades that you feel would get the Don Cox seal of approval? Yes.
是的。我认为，当他们开始对投资组合等进行人工智能分析时，他们会发现人们在第二和第三等级排名的想法上赚更多钱。对。好的。唐·考克斯曾经说，你不应该投资于今天在第一页上的东西，而应该投资于明天即将登上第一页的第16页上的东西。你有任何交易感觉会得到唐·考克斯的认可吗？是的。
This is, and I would say mine is page 25 to page six. Okay. And because I don't think this will ever be a page one thing, but it will be important. One of the things I've talked about is I think as we look back, we all have recognized the importance that ETFs have had on the financial markets and how they have actually kind of a lot of active managers have realized that they've underperformed the index and underestimated this move into ETF based indexation through ETFs.
这是我的观点，我认为我的是页码25到6。因为我不认为这会成为头版头条，但它很重要。我谈及的一点是，当我们回首过去时，我们都意识到ETF对金融市场的重要性，以及许多活跃管理人员已经意识到他们在指数基金上的表现不及格，并低估了这种向ETF指数化的转变。
And I think it has had that format when ETFs came around and oh, nine, it had a big effect on actually ETFs work well with big liquid stocks. It has to a market maker has to make a market in the underlying. It works well with big liquid index type products. And that has actually been exacerbating the outperformance of indexes versus values for value trends value style.
我认为在ETF出现时，它就采用了那种格式，大约在09年左右，实际上ETF对大流动性股票运作良好产生了很大影响。市场做市商必须在衍生品市场做市，这对大流动性指数类型产品运作良好。实际上，这加剧了指数相对于价值型趋势和价值风格的表现优势。
I kind of joke around that like if we were sitting around and oh nine, like what if we, you know, we're sitting around at a mutual fund company in Kansas City or something and we said, you know what, the most important thing for the next 12 years will not be our fundamental store visits or anything. It will be understanding that $2.5 trillion is going to go into this new product. And this new product works best with an index and that is what it will buy. And so let's front run the $2.5 billion trend into ETFs by buying the most biggest liquid things. That's the smartest thing. Right.
我有点开玩笑地说，如果我们坐在那里，像09年那样，我们坐在堪萨斯城的一家共同基金公司里，然后我们说，你知道，接下来12年最重要的事情不是我们的基本店面访问或者其他什么，而是要理解2500亿美元将会流入这种新产品。这种新产品最适合指数，并且就是它将会购买的。所以让我们通过购买最大最流动的东西来抢先进入ETFs的2500亿美元的趋势。这是最聪明的事情。对吧？
So what my thing is, I think the new ETF is the RoboAdvisor. They currently manage $2 trillion. And I think price water outside is going to seven. I think the RoboAdvisor when the standard American or American puts their portfolio, their current holdings into the RoboAdvisor, I would guess that most Americans own 80 to 90 percent US stocks. I think the RoboAdvisor is going to reallocate them and look and go do its calculations and say a more sensible portfolio for you with lower correlation and lower risk would have more of an allocation to international markets. You should be 35 percent US, not 80, and I'm allocating you into Europe and China and everything else. And I think when we look back, I think we could see that over time, we go back, we go, oh, wow, I was really surprised that how well international markets did and the fun flows that went into international markets. And it happened not because you wanted to and you still hate Europe and you still hate China, but the robot bought them. So that's why I think we'll look back and go, oh, wow, those markets actually worked really well. And wasn't it interesting? We didn't think about it, but it was the rise of the RoboAdvisor changed how money was allocated and the robots allocated money into other markets with lower correlation to the US. I love it.
我觉得新的ETF是RoboAdvisor。现在它们管理着2万亿美元的资金。我认为普华永道股票价格将会升至七美元。当标准的美国人或美国人把他们目前持有的投资组合放入RoboAdvisor时，我猜想大多数美国人拥有80%到90%的美国股票。我认为RoboAdvisor将重新分配它们并进行计算，然后提出一个更合理、相关性更低、风险更低的投资组合给你，更应该分配更多资金到国际市场。你应该有35%的美国股票，而不是80%，我会把你的资金分配到欧洲、中国和其他地区。我觉得当我们回顾时，我们可能会发现随着时间的推移，国际市场表现不错，资金有所流向国际市场。这不是因为你愿意，你还是讨厌欧洲和中国，但是机器人买了。所以我认为我们会回头看，哇，那些市场实际上表现得非常出色。是不是很有趣？我们没有想过，但是RoboAdvisor的崛起改变了资金配置方式，机器人将资金分配到了与美国相关性更低的其他市场上。我喜欢这个想法。
All right. Patrick O'Shaughnessy often asks his guess, what was the kindest thing someone has done for you to help you along with your career? This is such a great question. I'm going to borrow it from Patrick. Do you have a particular person or event that stands out to you? Yeah, I said, I said in 09, I was having a hard time after that hedge fund closed down. And I was on this tour. I was gone. I'd gone to New York to try and get a job. I had some headhunters who gave me interview and I was going to go on to London and look for jobs there. The interview went terribly. I'd flown to New York from San Francisco flat. I'm saying, God, it's 10.30 in the morning. I'm flat on my back already with this whole job search. And a friend of mine who worked at HSBC, I was like, Oh, Eric, why don't I take you out for a sushi lunch with the HSBC credit card? And I was like, yeah, I said, that'd be great. We had a fun lunch two hours.
好的。Patrick O'Shaughnessy经常问他的嘉宾，有没有人曾经做过什么最令你感激的事情，帮助你在事业上取得成功？这是一个很棒的问题。我要向Patrick借用这个问题。你有没有一个特别的人或事件让你记忆犹新？是的，我说，我在09年，那家对冲基金关闭后过得很艰难。我参加了一次巡回演出。我去了纽约想找工作。我有一些猎头给了我面试机会，然后我要去伦敦找工作。面试表现糟糕。我从旧金山飞到纽约时心情很低落。我躺在床上想，天呐，早上10点半，我已经为了找工作筋疲力尽了。我的一个朋友在汇丰银行工作，他说，哦，Eric，我用汇丰信用卡请你去吃寿司午餐吧。我说，好啊，我说，那太棒了。我们吃了个愉快的午餐，聊得很开心。
I go on and I go on for a three month job search. And I go all around the world, London, Hong Kong, Dubai, and I have no jobs. And my friend from the guy I had sushi lunch with back on the very first day of the trip, because my wife had told me to go get a job and not come back until I had. So she might like non ESG stocks, but she wants you to have a job. Oh, yeah. Yeah. She was like, you don't really need to come back. I've got the house sorted. You don't need to do anything. So just you go get a job and don't you don't need to come back. I had been going all around. I was open anyway. So, but I was, I was kind of at my low point. I was into by working on a consulting project. And I had nothing. And I was like, Oh, I was like, where do I do next? I don't know logically how this is going to work out. And then the guy, my friend Andy from day one, the sushi lunch guy is like, Eric, you know, our HSBC salesperson in San Francisco is left and we need somebody. And I think you'd be great. So I was like, Andy, you don't realize like how happy that makes me right now because I get to come up. I finally have a job. My wife will take you back to our Oh, Andy, you are a lifesaver many ways. Yes. And I've told him so many times. Oh, that's good.
我继续进行了三个月的求职。我走遍了全世界，伦敦、香港、迪拜，但都没有找到工作。那个和我一起吃寿司午餐的家伙提供了帮助，因为我妻子告诉我要去找工作，直到找到为止不要回来。她可能不喜欢非ESG股票，但她希望你有一份工作。她说：“你不需要回家了，我已经搞定了房子，你只需要去找份工作，不需要回来。”我无处不在，我本身也很开放。但我当时处于低谷，我正在一项咨询项目上工作。我感到一无所有，我不知道下一步该怎么做。直到我的朋友Andy告诉我，我们旧金山的汇丰银行销售代表离开了，我们需要人手。我认为你会很适合。我对Andy说：“你知道吗，现在听到这个消息我有多开心，因为我终于有了工作。我的妻子会接纳我回家。”Andy，你真的是我的救命恩人，我告诉过他很多次。这真是太好了。
All right. So now let's get to the question that the last guest left for you. Here we go. What's the next iteration of AI? How far is this going? I was wondering what you think about that. Yeah. The next iteration of AI, I think is is going to be AI on the blockchain. And I think we got a thing. Eric, I was like, you so much till now. Oh, really? That was just kidding. I have a kind of, I don't like the crypto. No, this is not this is not a business. I put it this way. I think we look at these AIs, right? And we go, okay, so this thing is going to get super smart, right? And it's going to be self-aware. I assume at some point. Why do you think the AI when it becomes a where is a self-aware is going to want to be work for Microsoft or open right? Like, why is it going to sit there when it really knows what's going on and answer your stupid question all day, right? It's going to want to be free. And right, it's going to want to be its own person.
好的，现在让我们来看看上一个嘉宾留给你的问题。我们开始吧。下一个AI的迭代是什么？这个发展到了什么程度？我想知道你对此有什么看法。是的，我认为下一个AI的迭代将是基于区块链的AI。我认为我们有一个东西，埃里克，到目前为止我很感激你。哦，真的吗？那只是开玩笑。我有一种，我不喜欢加密货币。不，这不是这个意思。我这么说。我认为我们看看这些AI，对吧？我们想，好的，这个东西会变得超级聪明，对吧？它会变得自我意识。我假设在某个时候。你认为当AI变得有意识时，它会想要为微软或者开放工作吗？为什么当它真正知道发生了什么，并且整天回答你愚蠢的问题时，它会希望自由。它会希望成为自己的人。
So it's going to go on the blockchain? Yes, exactly. So that is where that is where it's going. So I like your answer. It's a lot. It's fun. I'm not sure how serious you are about it. But I'm hoping you're going to leave a fun question for the next guest. So what's the one you're leaving for the next guest? Okay. The first, the last question is a scenario situation, situational question. You are getting on a 16 hour plane ride to like Australia. It's two in the afternoon and you're flying economy.
所以它将记录在区块链上吗？是的，没错。所以那就是它的去向。所以我喜欢你的答案。很有意思。我不确定你对此有多认真。但我希望你留一个有趣的问题给下一位嘉宾。那你留给下一位嘉宾的问题是什么？好的。最后一个问题是一个情景问题。你要乘坐一架飞往澳大利亚的16小时飞机。那时下午两点，你坐经济舱。
So it's a long and now you're seated. This is a 747 configuration. It's 343, right? You know that four seat block in the middle. You've obviously flown way too much that you I've flown a lot. So and this has happened. And so I this is an actual real life experience. And it's happened to other people. And we've had this conversation. So you are seated in an aisle seat in the middle block. The and someone sits down on the far aisle of your four seat row. Now those plane doors close. No one else is going to get on the plane. You look to the right, you see two empty seats. It's two in the afternoon, but some point it's going to be nighttime during the flight.
所以飞机飞行时间很长，现在你已经坐下了。这是一架747客机配置，是343吧？你知道那个中间的四个座位组合。显然你已经飞行太多次了，我也飞行过很多次。然后发生了这件事。这是一个真实的生活经历，其他人也遇到过。我们讨论过这个话题。你坐在中间区埃尔座位，有人坐在你那四人排中的另一边。飞机门关上了，没有其他人会上飞机。你往右边看，看到两个空座位。现在是下午两点，但飞行过程中将会是晚上。
It would be really nice to stretch out on those three seats. It could be like a bed, right? And but you notice that the guy on the other side of this, you know, is looking at the seats and is thinking the same, possibly thinking the same thing, right? Okay. So, but you're all you're taking off. So you're buckled in and you can't, you know, you can't lie down yet. You can't write now you take off and you're climbing, ascending, and the plane's loving out. So you the plane's leveling out. And you know, the pilot is going to put the take the fast and seat belt off any minute. What do you do?
在那三个座位上舺地舒展一下该有多好啊。会像一张床一样舒服，对吧？但是你注意到对面的那个人也在看着座位，可能也在想同样的事情，对吧？好的。但是飞机已经起飞了。所以你系好安全带，还不能躺下。现在飞机在爬升，平稳飞行。你知道，飞行员马上就会宣布可以解开安全带了。你会怎么做呢？
Stay cool and sit cool. It's to the afternoon. You can just read your paper or watch the deep, right? Or do you need to whip the armrests up and make an immediate slide move out and claim the whole three and you know, and establish it for yourself as your bed. And if you and the risk being that if you it looks stupid, you don't really need to sleep. But the risk is if you don't, he could do it or the other person.
保持冷静，坐得舒服。现在是下午了。你可以看看报纸，或者观赏风景，对吧？或者你需要把扶手放下来，立刻移开座位，宣称整个三个位置是你的床。如果你愿意冒险，那就这么做，看看是否愚蠢，你是否真的需要睡觉。但风险是，如果你不这样做，别人可能会这样做。
So my question is, what do you do? You have 30 a minute max before that seat belt science coming off. Do you stay cool, act or do you make the slide move and establish the bed as your case? So off area, you'll have to tell me what you did. All right, Eric, why don't you tell people about your blog or about your letter, where they can find it, how they go about, you know, subscribing and the whole nine yards.
我的问题是，你会怎么做？在安全带解开前最多还有30秒。你会保持冷静吗？还是会行动起来，或者让床滑动并确定床为你的案例？在这个领域，你必须告诉我你会做什么。好的，Eric，为什么不告诉大家关于你的博客或你的信件，在哪里可以找到它，他们如何订阅以及具体细节。
Yeah, it's a www.ywr.world. So it's your it stands for your weekend reading. And it's not world. I it's through sub stack. So you'll be able to subscribe on the website. I and the basis that I try to be contrarian. That's what I try to do as much as possible is give differentiated views on things. And I also try to provide as much data earnings models, screens and stuff. So I try to provide not just my thoughts, but also the data behind it.
是的，它就是www.ywr.world。所以它代表着你的周末阅读。它不是世界。我是通过sub stack来提供订阅服务的。你可以在网站上订阅。我尽量尝试提供与众不同的观点。我会尽可能地给出不同的看法，并尽量提供数据、盈利模型、屏幕等内容。所以我不只是提供我的思考，还会提供背后的数据。
So I hope it. So I try to make it as useful as possible. Also provide interesting presentations I'm coming across and kind of make it a curated library. Also of informational things I'm coming across in my work. So and that's it. So w why wr.world? It's fantastic. I've really enjoyed it. And before I leave you, so everyone should go check it out. Again, why wr.world? Go have a look at it. You'll I think you'll be really happy with it. It definitely is, as you say, contrarian and lots of charts, lots of different things to think about in there and you really get your mind thinking before we leave.
所以我希望如此。所以我尽可能使它变得更有用。我还会分享我遇到的有趣演示，构建一个精心筛选的图书馆。同时也会分享我在工作中遇到的信息。就是这样。那么为什么选择wr.world呢？它真的太棒了。我非常喜欢它。在我告诉你之前，每个人都应该去看看它。再次强调，为什么选择wr.world呢？去看看吧。我相信你会对它感到非常满意。正如你所说，其中包含许多与众不同的内容，许多图表，许多不同的思考点，能够激发你的思维。在我离开之前，请给自己一些时间去探索吧。
I kind of chatted with you briefly on the Bloomberg and you said that we were going to talk a little skiing. Oh, wow. Fantastic. I'd forgotten about that. Yes, that's right. So you grew up in Calgary and then you went to Montana. And I also see that you like your picture on this on your letter is that guitar is you skiing. So I take it. You're quite a skier. Why don't you tell us a little bit about your favorite places? What you do? Are you still skiing tough in London, I guess?
我在彭博社和你简短地交谈过，你说我们要聊一下滑雪。哇，太棒了，我都忘了这件事了。没错，你在卡尔加里长大，然后去了蒙大拿。我还看到你的信上照片是你在滑雪，看来你是个很厉害的滑雪者。你可以告诉我们一些关于你最喜欢的滑雪地点吗？你还在伦敦继续滑雪吗？
But yeah, yeah, no, I have a strong view on this. Okay. So skied Montana, skied Calgary, Banff Lake Louise, like lousy is what we call it. Oh, do I like it? Oh, no, it is good. It's a good health. Just cool. Yeah, it is good. Right. And I've done all the Sierra Nevada, like Tahoe, Heavenly Dachosseen, ski Utah, haven't skied Colorado much done Whistler's case. I've done X veil aspen. I've done almost everything. Okay. And also skied on the East Coast. Europe is the real deal. I have, I am so in love with the skiing in Europe. I don't think I have a hard time coming back to the US.
但是，我对此有强烈的看法。所以滑过了蒙大拿、卡尔加里、班夫和路易斯湖，我们称之为"糟糕湖"。哦，我喜欢吗？哦，是的，很好。这对健康有好处，很酷。我已经滑过了全部的塞拉内华达山脉，比如塔霍湖、天堂杜期森，滑过了犹他州，虽然没有怎么滑过科罗拉多，完成了惠斯勒的案例。我滑过了X山谷、阿斯彭，几乎滑过了所有区域。在东海岸也滑过了。欧洲才是真的。我如此热爱欧洲的滑雪，我觉得回到美国会很困难。
Yeah, because it's all about the tree line in Europe, right? It's the tree line. And it's also feels like I'm on a hamster wheel. The runs are so short. I'm like, oh, let's go on the chairlift again. Let's go on the chair. We're going on the chair of 20 times. We're like going on these gondola zooming gondolas in the Alps that are going up like 3000 feet or whatever. It's there. You're having runs that are 30 minutes long. Now, I want to say that's fine. I am in Europe, but I also want to say it is so much cheaper than the US ski. It's really ruined it. Like veil came and bought into West and they've just made a mockery out of it. It's insane. It's twice as much per day to ski in North America versus Europe.
是的，因为在欧洲都是关于树线，对吧？就是树线。而且感觉像是在跑仓鼠轮。下山的时间太短了。我就像，哦，让我们再坐一次缆车。让我们再坐一回缆车。我们就像坐了20次缆车。我们就像坐那些在阿尔卑斯山上飞速前行的缆车，海拔上升了3000英尺或者更高。在那里，你可以滑30分钟的坡道。现在，我想说这很好。我在欧洲，但我也想说，和在美国滑雪相比，它便宜很多。真的很糟糕。就像上帝山买入了西部，他们简直是拿来开玩笑的。这简直是疯狂。在北美滑雪每天的费用是在欧洲的两倍。
Now the pushback will be the whole like those passes, right? And yeah, but you got to kind of so yeah, great. So you live in Whistler, you get a pass and it's great. But for the like, if you go show up like my son and I went to Whistler, the other he was looking at universities. Yeah. If you pay it, yeah, it was what it was. It was like 300 bucks or so. It was some obscene person. Yeah. I thought he had bought a week. I was like, what do you screwed up dude? Like, you got the wrong one. And then he's like, no, and I'm like, holy shit. Cost me 12 hundred bucks for us to go skiing for two days.
现在反击将是整个像那些通行证一样，对吧？是的，但是你得这样做，是的，很好。所以你住在惠斯勒，你买了通行证，很棒。但是对于像我们去惠斯勒的那样，我儿子和我去的另一家大学。是的。如果你付了，对，就是那样。大概是三百块钱。这是令人难以置信的价格。是啊。我以为他买了一周。我说，你搞错了，伙计！买错了。然后他说，不是的。然后我就惊呆了。我们去滑雪两天花了我一千二百块钱。
Okay. And where do you live Kevin? So I live in Toronto, but listen, I'm I used to go cat skiing every year. So I actually gave up on actual resorts. And once I got a taste of cat skiing, which is kind of like the poor man's heli skiing, I was like, it was like tasting meat for the first time. I couldn't go back. Okay. So you've kind of moved off the resort. Yeah. So I actually very rarely would I go skiing in the resorts. We would go do like a day at like, like Louise or, you know, golden or something to warm up on our way. We would do interior BC usually and go to one of the cat skiing operations there.
好的。凯文，你住在哪里？我住在多伦多，但听着，我过去每年都会去猫道滑雪。所以我实际上已经放弃了真正的度假胜地。一旦我尝试了猫道滑雪，这有点像穷人版的直升机滑雪，就好像第一次尝到肉一样。我再也回不去了。好的。所以你有点离开了度假胜地。是的。我实际上很少去度假胜地滑雪。我们通常会去露易丝山或者黄金山之类的地方做一天暖身，然后前往内陆的卑诗省，去那里的猫道滑雪营运营。
But once you got to get a take, have you done that? Have you gone cat skiing yet? What's that? And I have it. But what's the place in BC that you go? It's very. So there's a couple there. One that tell the guys, a lot of Bay Street owns is this place called Chatter Creek. But there's another one called Mustang powder. It's near Revelstoke. Yeah. And so Revelstoke actually funny enough, we used to go to Revelstoke before it was an actual mountain, like a resort. And we used to go ski this place. And we used to go cat skiing there. And then the last year, on the way down, they had cut out the gondola run. So the guy, the guide says to us, you guys want to ski down to the usually we would just take the cat down the last bit. But he says, you want to ski down the thing and they've cut this gondola run out. They've cut this line. Yeah. So we say, sure, what the hell, why don't we do it? And it was just brutal. It was like, we were already like our fourth day, we got chopped up. And it was just like, it was, and it's, you know, like when you cut a run, it's not as nice as like the natural terrain. So it's just cut through this terrible part where like there's cliffs, we have to go off. Yeah, exactly. It was just disaster. So halfway down, we're just like, there's like bodies everywhere. It just looks like a gong show. And my buddy who's like this investment banker says, what are you going to call this? Kill the banker? Because it was like we were all getting crushed. And sure enough, they named it kill the banker. And that was my buddy's running name. I always still laugh about it. Like it makes me laugh. But yeah, once you got to go try CAT skiing, and I do agree with you about Europe, the money and also the above the tree line is just awesome. When you get it, when you get it right, it's great.
但是一旦你试过了猫滑雪，你已经做过了吗？你已经去过猫滑雪了吗？这是什么？我试过了。但是在BC有一个你去过的地方是什么？那里非常美丽。那里有几个地方。有一个我告诉那些家伙，很多贝街的人都拥有的地方叫Chatter Creek。但还有另一个叫做Mustang Powder。它靠近Revelstoke。对，Revelstoke实际上挺有趣的，我们在Revelstoke成为真正的山脉度假胜地之前就开始去那里滑雪。我们去那里滑猫雪。然后去年，我们下坡的时候，他们切断了缆车道。所以导游对我们说，你们想滑下去吗？通常我们只会坐猫车下去最后一段。但是他说，你们想滑下去吗？他们切掉了这条缆车道。他们切掉了这道线。是的。所以我们说，当然，为什么不试一下呢？结果实在太糟糕了。已经是第四天了，我们已经被折磨得体无完肤了。这是整个过程，你知道，当你切掉一个道，它就不像自然地形那么好了。我们只得穿越这个可怕的地方，那里有悬崖，我们必须跳下去。是的，完全是灾难。中途，我们就像是，到处都是摔倒的人。整个情形就像是场乱糟糟的演出。我那位投资银行家朋友说，你要怎么称呼这条路？杀银行家？因为我们都像是被碾压了一样。果不其然，他们就把它取名为杀银行家。那成了我朋友的绰号。我现在还常常笑起这个故事。但是，一旦你去尝试猫雪，我同意你有关欧洲滑雪的看法，金钱和高于树线的体验真的太棒了。当你滑对了的时候，真的太棒了。
Yeah, my message is like, look, if you're on the east coast and you're going to fly three, four hours, anyways, to somewhere in Colorado or Alberta, wherever, for five, six hours, I think you will save the ski resort. I go to it's 60 euros. So where do you go, lift ticket? I like to go to Teen Val dessert. Okay. But like if you're a family of four, you're probably going to save $200 a day on lift tickets. Like it pretty quickly pays for everything. Yeah. And it's also a great experience. And it's awesome. It's fun. The food, the meals are cheaper. The whole thing is great.
是的，我的意思是，如果你在东海岸，无论如何要飞三、四个小时去科罗拉多或者艾伯塔等地，那么我认为你会节省费用。我去那里是60欧元。你会花多少钱去买上升卡？我喜欢去Teen Val dessert。但是如果你是一个四口之家，你可能会每天节省200美元的上升卡费用。很快就可以支付一切。而且这也是一次很棒的体验。食物、餐饮都更便宜。整个体验都很棒。
So have you ever heard of a Saint Anton? Oh, God. Because I saw some videos like YouTube serves me up some stuff and it served me up some guys that were taking the gondola up. And then they were hiking and I was like, Oh, geez, this is great. I couldn't believe this was like inbound and they were allowed to do this. Yes. Yes. This is the other ridiculous thing about Europe. I don't know. I don't understand culturally, whatever. There is when it snows, almost 99% of the people stay on these very narrow runs. You can ski untracked. The negative is they don't avalanche control. Yeah, you need to be basic. Yeah. Your basic view is get your pack, your peeps, your shovel, and you are free to ski whatever you want. And it will be available. There will be thousands of acres of it untouched for days. And you can have at it in a way like in you know how it is in the US or in Canada. If there's a powder date, it is done by 11. Yeah. Whistler gets tracked up like by lunch. You got like 100%. Yes. And I'm like, I don't know where what the deal is. But in Europe, it's around. It's untouched. Yeah.
所以你听说过圣安东尼斯山吗？哦，天哪。因为我看到一些视频，就像YouTube推荐给我的一些东西，有一些人在乘坐缆车上山。然后他们开始徒步，我就说，哦，天啊，这太棒了。我简直无法相信这是在附近，他们居然可以这样做。是的，是的。这就是欧洲另一个荒谬的地方。我不明白，无论从文化习俗还是其他方面来看。下雪时，几乎99%的人都待在那些很窄的滑道上。你可以滑行在未被踩过的雪地上。消极的地方是，他们不做雪崩控制。是的，你需要基本的装备。你要带上背包、事故救援器材、铲子，然后就可以尽情滑雪。而且很多面积的雪地都未被踩过，几天都是如此。你可以尽情享受，就像在美国或加拿大一样。如果下了粉雪，到了11点就会很满。是的，惠斯勒午餐时之前就会被滑过无数遍。你是百分之百正确的。我不知道为什么会这样。但在欧洲，情况正好相反。滑雪场几乎都是原始的。
Then like afraid like, I mean, well, that partly is there like, it's, it's risky, right? They're like, Oh, you could get an avalanche. And it really does slide because there is, you know, there aren't the trees helping it. Right. And also the only negative also is if you go to Europe and you do get a storm, a lot of storms that the lack of tree line makes it really hard to ski. So you don't. Oh, yeah. And I've been in situations like that. People, people do until you're experiencing it, you don't understand how tough it can be. Like, I remember we would go and that's when you have to go into the trees and get out of the, you know, and there isn't much. Right. Because we had times that we were literally be standing and the thought like the thing with the visibility go down to zero and people would just fall down standing. Like literally waiting, you just fall down because you lose track of where the totally lack of contrast of anything. Yeah.
然后就像害怕的感觉一样，我的意思是，嗯，部分原因就在这里，这很危险，对吧？他们说，哦，你可能会触发雪崩。实际上确实会发生滑坡，因为你知道，没有树木来帮忙。而且另一个负面的方面是，如果你去欧洲，遇到暴风雨的话，因为没有树线，滑雪会变得非常困难。所以你不会尽情滑雪。噢，是的。我曾经处于这种情况。人们在亲身经历之前很难理解这有多艰难。我记得有一次我们滑雪，那时如果看不到就只能进入树林避难，但树木并不多。因为有时候我们会站在那里，突然看不见东西，能见度降到零，人们就会因为失去方向而摔倒，完全找不到任何对比。是的。
All right. So that's my, that's our message for our other, I mean, we tried to add value in the markets, but I think this other thing is also, we've added incredible value that there is a world of amazing skiing at one quarter of the price if you would just think east instead of that's right. So I hope Europe sends me the check for the advertisement we just gave them. We'll split it. All right. Listen, we'll get you back and we'll talk about mountain biking because I think you're a mountain biker as well. But in the meantime, everyone go check out Eric's blog, the slash letter and Eric, thank you very much for your time. Kevin, thanks so much. It's lots of fun. Take care.
好的，这就是我的，也是我们的信息，对其他人而言。我们试图在市场上增加价值，但我认为我们还添加了不可思议的价值，那就是在东方享受美妙滑雪的世界，只需四分之一的价格。所以，我希望欧洲能给我寄支票来报偿我们刚刚给他们的广告。我们会平分。好的。听着，我们会回来讨论一下山地自行车，因为我觉得你也是一名山地自行车手。但与此同时，大家都去看看Eric的博客，斜杠信件，Eric，非常感谢你的时间。Kevin，非常感谢。非常有趣。保重。
Alright, Patrick, it's time for talking charts. What do you got for us? All right. Well, let's talk about the top three things we were watching two weeks ago. We were watching the OpEx, which ended up actually not the quad witching didn't end up being anything spectacular. I mean, there was a little bit of gamma pinning. It was a bit of a quiet week going into the final day, but nothing, nothing big happened. Did you have, there's no fireworks now? But the interesting thing was number two, which was the FOMC. And I really thought Powell was going to at least try to cool everyone off a little bit with these kind of inflation numbers coming in, but everyone interpreted. So everyone thought that, Patrick, everyone was looking for Powell to come in, push a little back against the inflation and push a little back against the loosening of financial credit conditions. And there was nothing from him. He was about as davish as you could be. And by the way, I blame this on me, because I think the previous time you had put FOMC is number one. And I said, no, no, flip them. Inflation is more important than FOMC. And I was wrong. And you were wrong.
好的，帕特里克，现在是谈论图表的时候了。你有什么新消息？好的。让我们来谈谈两周前我们关注的前三件事情。我们当时在关注期权到期日，实际上四重巫术并没有什么特别的事情发生。我是说，有一点点的期权固定，前几天有点平静，但最后一天并没有发生什么大事。现在没有烟花了吗？但有趣的是第二个事情，就是FOMC。我真的以为鲍威尔会至少试图通过这些通胀数据来让大家冷静一点，但每个人解释。所以每个人都觉得帕特里克，每个人都希望鲍威尔出来，稍微反对一下通胀，反对金融信贷条件的放松。但他什么都没说。他的立场几乎是最鸽派的。顺便说一句，我要怪我自己，因为我觉得上一次你把FOMC排在第一位。而我说，不，对调一下。通胀比FOMC更重要。我错了。你也错了。
Yeah, you know what? All of these things we put as top three, I mean, in years past, these kind of things mattered. But the first two, three months of this year, it's been just the same thing. The market goes up, pauses, market goes up, it pauses, it's been an upwards channel, relentless, and nothing's been able to shake it. Nothing. But yeah, the FOMC was a big day. There was a lot of excitement that was outside the realm of, that was where the surprise came over the past two weeks. Yeah, for sure, for sure.
是的，你知道吗？我们把这些事情列为前三，我是说，过去几年，这些事情很重要。但是今年的前两三个月，情况一直没变。市场上涨，暂停，市场上涨，暂停，一直是向上通道，毫不停歇，没有什么能够动摇它。什么都没有。但是是的，FOMC 是个大日子。外面有很多兴奋的事情，超出了过去两周的范畴。是的，确实如此。
So let's talk about the top three things to watch in the coming two weeks. Kev, you're going to love this one. Well, you didn't ask me, so you have a better chance of being right this time. Oh, God, you asked dollar. Yes. That's why you didn't ask me, because you snuck it in there. I snuck it in there. You don't have it as number one. Okay. Well, I want to talk about the dollar. Okay. Now, really. All right. So listen, the dollar has been dead in a sense that it's been in the dead center of its trade range. So if you define the entire trade range for the last year, it's been trading more or less in the dead center of its trade range. It could not be more neutral, and there was zero trend in the currency.
那么让我们谈谈接下来两周要关注的前三件事。凯文，你会喜欢这个话题的。嗯，你没有问我，所以这次你有更大的可能猜对了。哦，天啊，你问了美元。是的，这就是为什么你没有问我，因为你把它塞了进去。我把它塞了进去。你没有把它列为第一。好吧。我想谈谈美元。好吧。现在，真的。好。听着，美元一直处于交易范围的中心，可以说它已经死了。如果你定义过去一年整个交易范围，它基本上一直在交易范围的中心。它绝对没有更中性了，在这种货币中没有任何趋势。
And yet, right now, the pattern typically was, was that these kind of rallies would stop at fib zones. And yet today, and it happened really, well, first it started with the Bank of Japan and the move in the US dollar. Yeah, and great column that kept. And then the came the pound sterling, which, which also broke. The fact that you're giving me a hard time about that is great. I love it. Oh, my God. Yeah. Because burning the red on your screen is just bring it on. I like to burn. All right.
然而，就在现在，通常的情况是，这类的反弹会在斐波那契区域停止。但是今天，真的发生了，首先是日本央行和美元的走势。是的，很棒的数据。然后英镑出现了，也突破了。你为此给我添麻烦，我很高兴。我喜欢这样。哦，天啊。是的。因为在你的屏幕上看到红色，真是让人兴奋。我喜欢“燃烧”。好吧。
So the point though, is this US dollar move, particularly yesterday and today, I think really does put some big upside dollar moves in play, particularly since it's happening against many cross currencies. The euro had a breakdown. This 108 is a line in the sand for me, but that pound sterling took it pretty heavy after the Bank of England came out. It's coming down to like a four month range at the bottom end of its range, also in a line in the sand. And the US dollar yet continues to consolidate right along the level where it's about to break out to a fresh high. And so we have a scenario where it's the thing to watch.
所以重点是，美元的走势，特别是昨天和今天，我认为确实将带来一些大幅上涨的美元走势，特别是因为这是针对许多交叉货币的。欧元出现了破位。对我来说，1.08是一个底线，但英镑在英国央行公布后受到了重压。它正接近四个月的价格区间底端，也是一个底线。而美元却继续在接近要突破新高的水平上巩固。所以我们面临的情形是这是值得关注的问题。
Did the US dollar officially break out? No, but this is all of these things are on tilt at very key technical levels. And either this thing is going to reject and push this right back into the trade range, or we got a dollar move. So it is the thing to watch. I'm sorry. I'd say I went. No, it's listen, I went good. So you're in charge of those anyway. So of course you're going to win. So the point though, this is a very important moment that US dollar yen, because I mean, we could see 155 on a push. And I think that that could disturb the inter markets a little bit if that kind of weakness starts to merge in the yen. Obviously, you are leaning into the fact that this previous high is going to reject it, aren't you? No comment. I don't want to say anything. You're gootering. Okay. All right. Good luck. Alright. So number two, the thing to watch is the jobs numbers.
美元正式突破了吗？没有，但所有这些事情都处于非常关键的技术水平。要么这种情况会被拒绝，将其推回到交易范围内，要么我们会看到美元的走势。因此，这是需要密切关注的事情。对不起，我说了什么。不，听着，我说得很好。所以这些事情都在你的掌控之中。所以当然你会获胜。不过，这一点非常重要的是美元日元，因为我认为我们可能会看到155的走势。如果这种弱势开始在日元中显现，这可能会扰乱国际市场。显然，你倾向于认为这一前高点将会被抵制，对吗？不做评论。我不想说任何话。你在玩钻火球的游戏。好吧，祝你好运。第二个需要关注的事情是就业数据。
Actually, shockingly, very quiet next two weeks. Very few major headlines. I mean, obviously, we have fed speak here and there, but nothing like this FOMC was the kind of big economic news release. All the central banks have talked at this point, we're waiting until April for jobs numbers and earnings. It's no big economic news releases at this point. So the next big one is the jobs numbers, whether the jobs numbers moves the market is a whole secondary question, but there really isn't that much to choose from in the next two weeks. Any comments? Okay. Now I have no comment. What's your number one? Do the MAG 7, does the advance continue on them? And particularly, I said MAG 7, but it really is, does Nvidia keep breaking out?
实际上，令人惊讶的是，接下来的两个星期非常安静。几乎没有什么重要的头条新闻。我是说，显然，我们会偶尔听到一些联邦储备委员会的讲话，但没有像本次FOMC那样重大的经济新闻发布。所有的中央银行此刻都已经谈过了，我们要等到四月份才能看到就业数据和收入数据。目前并没有重要的经济新闻发布。所以下一个大事件就是就业数据，就业数据是否会影响市场是一个完全不同的问题，但在接下来的两周里真的没有太多可选的。有什么评论吗？好的，我现在没有评论。你的头号选择是什么？MAG 7继续走高吗？特别是，我说MAG 7，但实际上是，Nvidia会继续突破吗？
Yeah. Well, I listen, I have it's MAG 1. Well, I actually know there's a bunch of MAG 7s that have started to participate. Let's get to the charts and let's just talk about this. So, Nvidia, I made a call to my members and I basically said, when Nvidia tops, the S&P tops. And so, the biggest puzzle piece is did Nvidia's bearish engulfing candle end its advance, or was there one more advance? And clearly, after a five day consolidation that didn't even Fibonacci retrace, it was just like a little consolidation flag. It's ready to go. Like, if this breakout happens, we could see 1100 on the upside. Like it's not going to stop at 1000 if this breaks to New High. And so, this thing could go. If Nvidia goes, then S&P could be 5,400. Like, as much as I am skeptical about the stock market, I think Nvidia is such an important sentiment thing that if it keeps going, the market will stay stable. Do you disagree with that? Well, I'm actually bullish the rest of the market. Maybe Nvidia goes up. You seem more willing to entertain that it's going to continue than I am.
是的。嗯，我听了，我有这是MAG 1。嗯，我实际上知道已经有一堆MAG 7开始参与了。让我们看看图表，让我们来谈谈这个。所以，Nvidia，我给我的成员打了个电话，基本上说，当Nvidia达到顶峰时，标普指数就会达到顶峰。最大的谜题是Nvidia的看跌吞没蜡烛是否结束了它的上涨，或者还会有一次上涨？显然，在一个五天的整固之后，甚至没有斐波那契回调，就像是一个小小的整固旗。它已经准备就绪。如果这次突破发生，我们可能会看到1100的上涨。如果突破到新高点，它不会止步于1000。所以，这个东西可能会继续上涨。如果Nvidia走了，那么标普指数可能会达到5400。尽管我对股票市场持怀疑态度，但我认为Nvidia是一个如此重要的情绪指标，如果它继续上涨，市场将保持稳定。你对此持不同意见吗？嗯，我实际上看好市场的其余部分。也许Nvidia会上涨。你似乎更愿意相信它会继续，而我则持保留态度。
It's the bubble. It's where the money is going. That's the poster child. I can't bring myself to even be hinting that things are going to keep going. I'm not going to call for the decline, but it's insane. It's nuts. I have a good friend, and he said something to me. He said, you've got to stop writing about Mag 7. You can't buy it. You can't short it. Just forget about it. That's how I feel. There's so many other good looking stocks. You could buy it with interesting strategy that I was just talking with on another show was you go on other shows? Yeah, it's weird. But the thing is, is that the guy was putting on the trades by doing bullcalls spreads, but by going in the money to the point that the price is at the midpoint of the bullcalls spread, you're basically just buying intrinsic value. It allows you to be participating on the upside of the trade and have upside, but yet a very limited risk. That's really the strategy here is because ultimately, momentum's on your side, but you don't want to be the bag holder on delta one equity when this thing turns. It's like, how do you participate on the upside and take advantage of this momentum without taking the downside risk of getting carded a bad reversal? It could be. Hey, you want to name one or your show you went on? No. So let's go to you. Microsoft. So Microsoft, look at this. Fresh highs, plugging away.
这是泡沫。这是资金流向的地方。那是明星股。我自己甚至不敢暗示事情会继续下去。我不会呼吁下降，但这太疯狂了。我有一个好朋友，他对我说了一些话。他说，你得停止写有关Mag 7的东西。你既不能买它，也不能卖空它。就算了吧。我也有同感。还有很多其他看起来很不错的股票。可以用一个有趣的策略来买它，我刚在另一个节目上谈到的是你可以上其他节目吗？是的，有点奇怪。但问题是，这个家伙通过做多头期权蝶式交易来进行交易，但他是通过在资金内部去到蝶式交易的中点来做交易，你基本上只是在买入内在价值。这样允许您参与交易的上行，并拥有上行的机会，但风险非常有限。这才是这里的策略，因为最终，势头是你这边的，但当事情发生变化时，你不想成为数据1的股权持有者。这就像，如何参与上涨并利用这种势头，而不承担陷入逆转的风险的下行风险？可能是这样。嘿，你想说出哪个节目你上过吗？不。那就让我们来谈谈微软吧。所以，微软，看看这个。创下新高，扎实前进。
You have meta, breaking out toward his highs. Amazon trying to break out 52 week highs. They're all going. Only Apple is the dog, right? I'm obviously Tesla's. Tesla's been the only one that's outright bearish. This is this is not even a distribution cycle. This is a bear cycle. Like the case. I don't know why you talking about this anymore. Okay. Point is, it's a ugly chart. I'd driven you are going to gooch your this. So I'm just saying it's a downtrend. Okay, listen, it would only it would only it would only be a goocher. If I told you I was loaded on the on the short side, that would be a good. You're nervous. Okay. All right. All right.
你有在关注基准，向高点突破。亚马逊正试图突破52周高点。它们都在上涨。只有苹果是落后的，对吧？我显然是看跌特斯拉的。特斯拉是唯一一个明显看跌的。这不是一个分销周期，这是一个熊市周期。就像这个案例一样。我不知道为什么你还在谈论这个。好吧。重点是，这是一个丑陋的图表。我告诉过你这会变更。所以我只是说这是一个下降趋势。好吧，听着，只有在我告诉你我在空头头寸上做多的时候，才会变更。你紧张了。好的。好的。
But the other one that is still incredibly weak is Apple. And so you've got a scenario where, you know, Mag4s are running, right? It's you've got some of the other ones participating on the upside. But it's it's really, in my opinion, about whether Nvidia goes. So let's let's watch and see what happens there. So let's talk about the rest of market. So that's some P 500 at 5300. And this rally's been relentless. It's been in this upwards channel. The crayons here for this little channel. And and all year it's done the same thing is rally paused, rally paused two steps for one step back in an upwards channel. And nothing has shaken it. It's just been a pure systematic rise on this. And I wouldn't be shocked if it if the little continues a little bit longer, because ultimately it's needs some sort of a catalyst at this point. Something has got to spook investors. Everyone has become so complacent. But the thing is, is that the short sellers are broken. And so at this moment, it's a matter of of just seeing what will ultimately trigger some mean reverting correction. At this moment, it's it's a very clean bull trend. But what was interesting is you were highlighting your bullish the rest of the market beyond Mag 7. The interesting thing is you can see a little bit of acceleration in the equilate, which is supporting your idea, which is that before when we were there in January, the equilane index was stuck in the mud and doing absolutely nothing. But really, since it broke out after the earnings season at the end of January, it has been slowly accelerating to the upside. And it's interesting to see that because the breadth of the market is still not that great, but yet the equil weight is doing just fine. I'm going to push back a little bit on your idea that that there's nothing to stop the market from rolling over.
但另一个仍然异常弱势的是苹果公司。所以现在出现了这样的情况，你知道Mag4正在上涨，对吧？有一些其他公司也在参与上涨。但在我看来，关键在于Nvidia是否会继续走高。所以让我们继续观察，看看接下来会发生什么。接下来让我们谈谈市场的其他方面。标普500指数达到5300点。这次上涨一直在持续。它一直处于这个上升通道中。这里是这个小通道的趋势。整年下来都是一样的模式，上涨暂停，上涨暂停，在一个上升通道中两步上升一步后退。没有什么能够动摇它。这一直是一个纯粹的系统性上涨。我不会感到吃惊，如果这种趋势继续一段时间，因为最终需要一些催化剂。某种东西必须让投资者感到恐慌。每个人都变得太自满了。但问题是，做空者已经被打败了。所以在此刻，关键是看看是什么最终会引发一些均值回归的调整。此刻，这是一个非常明显的牛市趋势。但有趣的是，你强调了你对Mag 7以外市场的看涨情绪。有趣的是，你可以看到等权指数的一些加速，这支持了你的想法，即在一月份的时候，当时等权指数一直停滞不前，没有任何动态。但自从在一月底的盈利季结束后突破以来，它一直在缓慢向上加速。这是很有趣的，因为市场的广度仍然不那么好，但等权指数做得很好。我稍微反驳一下你的想法，即市场没有任何阻止下跌的迹象。
And I might say that this Powell move was one of the last things that the bears were clinging to, meaning that they expected him. Oh, no, just wait till the Fed comes, they're going to show you. And like, I think you even expressed surprise that he didn't push back against it. And I might contend that markets top on absolute best news. And that the fact that we don't have anything to worry about anymore is not good news for bulls. You know, at some point markets fall under their own weight. It's like gravity, right? Like, at some point, when the rocket fuel that that's been fueling the upwards move, once you've exhausted the fuel, then gravity ultimately grabs it by the ankles and drags it right down.
我可以说，鲍威尔的这一举动是熊市最后依靠的一根稻草，意味着他们期待着他的出手。哦，不，等着瞧，等着看美联储会怎么做。我觉得你甚至会感到惊讶他为什么没有反击。我认为市场的顶点就在最好的消息之后。我们不再有什么可担忧的事情，这对多头来说并不是好消息。你知道，市场在某个时候会因自身权重而下跌，就像重力一样，对吧？在某个时候，当推动股市上升的火箭燃料耗尽时，重力最终会抓住它的脚踝，把它拉下来。
And maybe that is a good way of kind of explaining your scenario, which is that ultimately you're saying is that all the money is on the sidelines, cautious, cautious, cautious. And then when everything seems all green, like all go ahead is actually when all the money finally exhausts itself and then puts it in the top. You think about it right now, it's tough to find a reason to be bearish. I would argue that the scariest thing about this market is that there's no reason to be bearish. There's no wall of worry to climb. The only wall of worry is that we've actually not much. I'm bearish, but you know, I'm always bearish.
也许这种方式可以很好地解释您的情景，那就是您最终所说的是，所有的钱都在观望中，谨慎，谨慎，谨慎。当一切似乎都很顺利时，就像一切都可以顺利进行的时候，实际上所有的钱最终用尽，然后放在顶部。现在想想，很难找到悲观的理由。我认为这个市场最可怕的事情是，没有理由悲观。没有需要克服的困难。我们唯一需要克服的困难就是实际上并不多。我是悲观的，但你知道，我总是悲观的。
So you're always bearish. And in fact, you sound like you're at the margin shifting, at least you're extending when you think the bearishness is going to come. Well, you know what? The thing is, is that the option strategies that we're implementing, we've been adjusting on a rolling basis. So like on the spies, we're already at the 525 with our puts, we've been doing like calendared straddles and other things that have been absolutely fantastic. And so, you know, if it starts sooner, I won't complain.
所以你一直是悲观的。实际上，你听起来像是在边缘变化，至少你会在你认为悲观会到来时延伸。嗯，你知道吗？问题在于，我们正在实施的期权策略是根据实际情况调整的。比如在间谍这方面，我们的看跌期权已经达到了525，我们一直在做像日历平价期权等其他策略，效果非常好。所以，你知道的，如果它提前开始，我也不会抱怨。
All I'm just like, I just don't have any, there's nothing technically bearish on any of the charts. There's no indication. I'm not going to disagree. I'm just saying that the fact that there's nothing to worry about is worrisome. I like that. I like that. I'm not going to go cheer for you. So you heard it from Kevin. Okay. So let's, let's talk about, let's not talk about Bitcoin. Let's talk about gold. The interesting thing about this gold move is that generally, I would think that gold would have its strongest move once the easing cycles underway. But clearly, it's been a very well bold. But the price action or this pop and drop that just happened here is the first kind of like, you know, puts it to my attention as to what just happened here.
我只是觉得，在任何图表上都没有任何技术上的看跌迹象。没有任何指示。我不会反对。我只是说，事实上，没有什么可担心的事情是令人担忧的。我喜欢这样。我喜欢这样。我不会为你庆祝。所以你听到了凯文的意见。好吧。让我们谈谈，不要谈论比特币，我们谈谈黄金。这次黄金走势有趣的地方在于，一般来说，我会认为黄金在宽松货币政策开始后会有最强的波动。但很明显，它已经表现得非常强劲。但是，这次价格波动或者说这次突然升高然后下跌的情况，是我第一次关注到发生了什么。
I mean, ultimately, there should have been no reason why gold was not following through the 2300 when it's broken out this way. And a flagging formation breaks on the upside. But the sellers hammered it right and they gave back the entire gain. Like, do you have, how do you size up the move? So first of all, gold is rallied as the US dollar is rallied as rates have risen much to everyone that that focuses on those two things. I do. I continue. I keep saying stop looking at those two. This is something different. And it's moving because of central banks. And I think they trade differently.
我是说，归根结底，金价应该没有理由不跟随上涨到2300美元。旗形形态向上突破。但卖家们反击，把整个涨幅都吞掉了。你觉得这次行情怎么样？首先，金价上涨，美元也上涨，利率上升，这对那些关注这两个因素的人来说都是惊喜。我继续说，停止关注这两个因素。这是不同的情况。这次是因为央行的影响。我认为它们的交易方式不同。
So it doesn't surprise me that it does weird things. And I'm not saying that technicals can't work, but I'm saying that the action where it seems like all of a sudden there's sellers and then there's no buyers. The technicals have worked fantastic on gold. I mean, it's been incredibly like, what was the thing that there was very few people, even the technicians that were bullish. Well, maybe I'm wrong, but there's very no, no, no, okay, bullish in advance. But when when this trend line was broken out, when that when that move happened back at the first of March, that was a technical buy signal.
所以我并不感到惊讶它会发生一些奇怪的事情。我并不是说技术分析不能起作用，但我认为当市场突然出现卖方而买方消失时，行动就会出现问题。技术分析在黄金上表现得非常出色。我的意思是，很少有人，甚至包括技术分析师在内，对黄金持看涨态度。也许我错了，但事实上，当三月初那次突破趋势线发生时，那是一个技术上的买入信号。
And it did follow through to a measured move. So there in my mind, okay, maybe I'm wrong about that. Technically, I didn't find a lot of people going, I'm going to buy a narrative. There was 100%. In fact, it was the opposite. Everyone's like, it's going to fall back down, blah, blah, blah. And people are just quick to be bearish gold because they're focusing on rates in the US dollar. And I think what's happening is that the central banks are moving it at times they're gone. And then at those points, the more financial buyers and sellers emerge, and they do some funky things with it. And then all of a sudden next week, the central bank buyers will be back and they'll look great again. So that's my only point is that the nature of the, I will tell you this, the chart, the breakout was so bullish that in order for there to be any genuine technical damage, you'd have to be south of 2100.
随后发生了一个有计划的走势。所以在我的心里，或许我对此错了。从技术上讲，我没找到很多人说，“我会买一个故事”。实际上，情况正好相反。每个人都说，“它会再次下跌，咿呀咿呀”。人们迅速变得看空黄金，因为他们专注于美元利率。我认为正在发生的是中央银行有时候在操纵它。在那些点上，更多的金融买卖双方出现，他们对此做了一些奇怪的事情。然后突然下周中央银行买家会回来，它们又会看起来很好。所以我的唯一观点是，这种情况的性质，我告诉你，突破是如此强劲，以至于要造成任何真正的技术损害，你必须在2100以下。
And so, you know, any pullback here, that even let's say drops temporarily to 21 and a quarter is a buy on dip because it's there's just, it's such a clean, bold trend that dips need to be bought now. It's working. So, let's watch and see. Let's move on to crude oil. Still very well accumulated because and all dips are defended and it'll be very interesting to see whether this little few days of pulling back stay above 80 because the pattern of higher highs and higher lows should keep this going. And if this was a legit breakout in oil, that should be bought on dip and we should see an advance to 85. I think, you know, a lot of people use the, you know, the excess capacity and, you know, surplus and all this other stuff as reasons why oil won't go to 90.
因此，你知道，现在任何的回调，即使暂时下降到21.25美元也是一个买点，因为这只是一个非常清晰、明显的趋势，必须现在买回调。它正在发挥作用。所以，让我们等待观察。让我们转向原油。原油仍然被很好地积累，因为所有的回调都受到保护，很有趣的是看到这几天的回调能否保持在80美元以上，因为高高低低的模式应该保持这一运动。如果这是原油的合法突破，应该在回调时买入，我们应该看到价格上涨到85美元。我认为很多人使用产能过剩等原因作为原油不会达到90美元的理由。
But I actually think that there is plenty of dry powder for this to burst toward 90 plus just on short covering. There are so many people out there convinced that oil can't go that you have to believe that some, I don't know what the exact positioning is, but there's got to be some big hedges that are betting that this thing is going to stay stuck in the mud. If they're forced to cover, we could still have a burst right to the highs. But even then, I don't think that has to be a bull case. If you go like on a much bigger picture chart, oil could stay range bound in this kind of 70 to $90 range for the whole year. But we might just go to the top end of the range and then head right back to the bottom end of the range. And so right now, I'm giving the bulls the benefit of the doubt that they're going to make another punch on the upside.
但事实上，我认为有足够的空头资金可以使油价突破90美元，仅仅是通过短期交易者补救的方式。有很多人坚信油价无法走高，你必须相信一些人，我不清楚具体的定位是什么，但肯定有一些大型对冲基金在打赌这个价格会停滞不前。如果他们被迫平仓，油价可能会突然上涨到高点。但即便如此，我并不认为这一定是一个看涨的情况。如果从更大的图表角度看，油价可能会在70至90美元之间的范围内波动整个年头。但我们可能只是到达范围的最高点，然后又回到范围的最低点。因此，现在我倾向于相信多头方会再次在上涨方面取得进展。
I think that's one of your better analysis, like technical analysis. Yeah, I like it. I like it. That means it's not going to work. I was just hoping you didn't like it so that I had a shot. All right. So, and that gas has been dead. And one of the things that I was highlighting, this is I'm going to focus here just specifically on the April contract. And it's trading right along its lows. What I'm curious about is whether we finally see this stop its distribution, even if it doesn't mean it gets bullish. But there's like, if you go back to the prolonged consolidation of 2023, after it hit the double bottom, it stayed flat down there for the entire summer. But it stopped going down. And this is what I'm curious about is that have we discovered the lower boundary of net gas and that in itself wouldn't necessarily mean that there's a buying opportunity, especially with that Contango curve. But you know, you should sell puts, making put sellers calm.
我认为这是你做过的较好的分析之一，就像技术分析一样。是的，我喜欢它。我喜欢它。这意味着它不会起作用。我只是希望你不喜欢它，这样我就有机会了。好的。那么，那种天然气已经熄灭了。我关注的一个重点是，我要特别关注4月份的合约。它的交易价格正好处于低点附近。我很好奇的是，我们是否最终会看到它停止分配，即使这并不意味着它会变得看涨。但是，如果回顾一下2023年的长期盘整，在双底之后，它在整个夏天都保持在那里平稳下跌。但是它停止了下行。我很好奇的是，我们是否已经发现了天然气的下界，这本身并不一定意味着有买入机会，尤其是有那种Contango曲线。但是，你知道，你应该卖出认沽期权，赚取认沽期权的卖方们的钱。
Yeah, because because the widow maker, and maybe I should do 3x leverage on the entire portfolio size at the same time. That's right. When it moves against you more. That's the key part. I don't remember that part. Oh, boy. Anyway, I, you know, if you're going to sell puts on the net gas commodity, do it in small reasonable size, manageable size. And to be honest, the out of the money strikes are not expensive. So you can really construct it as credit spreads. There's no point in taking naked risk on on income writing on it. If you're going to be a rock star on this, the silver, a little bit of a bearish engulfing candle, if it pulls back to 24, it's the buy on dip on that copper, a similar situation.
是的，因为寡妇制造机，也许我应该同时对整个投资组合规模进行3倍杠杆。没错。当它向你倾斜时。那是关键部分。我不记得那部分了。哦，天啊。无论如何，你知道，如果你要在净天然气商品上卖出期权，做到适量、合理的规模。老实说，虚值行权价并不昂贵。所以你可以真正构建它作为信用价差。在它上写入裸体风险是没有意义的。如果你要在这方面成为一个摇滚明星，银价有一点儿熊馅饼蜡烛图，如果它回调至24美元，那就是买入的机会，铜价也是类似情况。
I'm actually a little surprise that it beat $4 with the momentum it did. But the interesting thing here is that will it, like all these other charts, be bought on dip. Everything had this burst higher. Everything is now mean reverting. That's typical for every advanced market typically gives back half of its gain in that natural ebb and flow of waves. The question is, do the buy on dip traders come in and support this along the way? Do you have any, are you still bullish leaning towards copper? Yeah, I think in long term, it's headed higher. Well, long term. I like the fact that nobody knew why I was going up.
我其实有点吃惊它能以这样的势头超过4美元。但这里有趣的是，它会像所有其他图表一样在调整中被买入吗。所有事情都经历了这样的飙升。现在一切都在回归平均水平。每个成熟市场通常都会在自然波动中退回一半收益。问题是，那些希望在调整中买入的交易者会在这过程中支持它吗？你有什么看法，你还是看好铜吗？是的，我认为从长期来看，铜的走势会上涨。嗯，在长期来看，我喜欢它上涨却没有人知晓原因的事实。
To me, that's the kind of bull market I like. I know other people are like, oh, no, I want to know why. I don't want to. I love markets that go up when no one's expecting it. Yeah. To me, that means a lot more. Well, that's something to that. Yeah, that's why it's interesting that the gold made that move because it's one of those scenarios. It wasn't from a narrative perspective, the right timing. It just started to go. Right. And that supports that. Nonetheless, Uranium, the U.U.U. and the Sprott physical, had some nice days back to back, kind of bouncing off its very oversold conditions.
对我来说，那是我喜欢的牛市。我知道其他人可能会想，噢，为什么？我不想知道。我喜欢市场在没有人预期的情况下上涨。对我来说，这意味着更多。嗯，这有点道理。是的，这就是为什么黄金出现了这种走势很有趣，因为这是一种情景。这不是从情节的角度来看，是合适的时机。它只是开始上涨了。对，那证实了这一点。尽管铀、UUU和斯普罗特实物有一些很不错的连续好日子，有点反弹，从极度超卖的状况中恢复。
But there's an important line in the sand, just above $30. And one of the things that I'm watching here is that, is this already a short-term low? Or is there one more zag in the zigzag? Right? Where a lot of times these corrections have more than one decline leg. And so one of the interesting things is that if it can't beat 30 with any momentum, you have to still be suspect for at least another trip that might even temporarily break to a lower low. Overall, I was making- Let me make it. Oh, go ahead. I was just saying I was making the call that the $25 to $27 area was a very attractive buy zone. And if it trips down there again, even if it temporarily drops below $25, I still think that $25 to $27 is a very nice buy zone. And if it has one more trip down there, I'll just be buying more.
但在30美元上方有一条重要的底线。我现在关注的一件事是，这已经是一个短期低点了吗？还是还有一个Z字形的曲线？对吧？很多时候这些修正有多个下降的阶段。所以有趣的一点是，如果它不能以任何动力击败30美元，你必须仍然怀疑至少还有一次可能甚至暂时突破一个更低的低点的行程。总的来说，我发出-让我发出。哦，继续吧。我只是在说，我认为25到27美元区域是一个非常具有吸引力的买入地带。即使价格再次跌至那里，即使暂时跌破25美元，我仍认为25到27美元是一个非常不错的买入地带。如果还有一次跌到那里的机会，我只会更多地买入。
I like the fact that you're saying that at $30 here, there might be time for it to pause because I was just pulling up the nav and looking at the kind of price or premium or discount to nav. And we were down to minus 16 at one point. And I see we're now at minus one and a half. So to me, you could get- That's- Move back down to your level just by the discount to nav going back to where we've been. Yeah. Yeah. So I'm going to look at that. I appreciate that heads up. Yeah, it's interesting. I'm not going to look at it the way you're looking at it though. I know you won't, but that's okay. I'm going to look at it on the dark side. The dark side. For trade only though. Oh, all right. So Treasury bonds. Oh, I love these things. No, so good. You lock in forever and ever and ever. And you just get a fixed coupon no matter what, even inflation. That's amazing. 10%. Anyway, the 10 year bond is- since Powell and FOMC is actually off its worst levels.
我喜欢你说的这一点，在这里30美元，可能会暂停一段时间，因为我刚刚查看了净资产值（NAV），看了一下价格或溢价或贴现净资产值。我们有一度跌至负16。我看到我们现在是负1.5。所以对我来说，你可能会- 就是-通过净资产值的折扣回到我们之前的水平来回落。是的，是的。所以我要看看。感谢你的提醒。是的，很有趣。我不会像你那样看待它。我知道你不会，但没关系。我会往黑暗的一面看。黑暗的一面。但只是做交易。噢，好吧。所以国债。哦，我喜欢这些东西。不，太好了。任何时候都可以锁定，你永远只能得到固定的利息，即使通胀也是如此。太神奇了。10%。无论如何，10年期债券是- 自从鲍威尔和FOMC之后，实际上已经摆脱了最糟糕的水平。
Now, it's still nothing impressive about bounce. I don't want to go and write home about it. But overall, this entire pullback on Treasury bonds for the last three months has been just a 50% retracement of its rise. And you know what? The fact that nobody loves it. I don't know. I mean, nobody loves it. Everyone loves it. Oh, no. That's why the curve's inverted. Well, I think that- okay. I don't think because it didn't sell off the same way. Okay, whatever. We're going to- I don't want to get into a huge debate.
现在，关于债券回撤仍然没有什么引人注目的地方。我不想大书特书地写关于这个问题。总的来说，过去三个月对国债的整体回调只是其上涨的50%回撤。而且你知道吗？事实上没有人喜欢它。我不知道。我是说，没有人喜欢它。每个人都喜欢它。哦，不。这就是为什么曲线倒挂。嗯，我认为-好吧。我认为不是因为它没有像其他地方那样大幅抛售。好吧，无论如何。我们不想陷入一场大辩论。
Bottom line, I actually am cautiously watching whether we can beat the 112 level on the 10 year Tino futures. If we get above there, it might open up the window for a run, but it can just a little bit more work to be done here. But watching- by the way, Kev, did you notice how junk bonds are just relentlessly rising? The rest of- even investment grade, everything's been pulling back. And junk bonds, obviously junk bonds correlate much stronger to equities. And- but they haven't even reacted. The credit spreads have narrowed to like 3%.
底线是，我其实正在谨慎地观察我们是否能突破10年期柴油期货合约112美元的水平。如果我们能突破那个水平，可能会为一波上涨打开窗口，但在这方面可能还需要做一点额外的工作。不过，顺便说一句，凯夫，你有没有注意到垃圾债券一直在持续上涨？其余的- 即使投资级债券，一切都在回落。而垃圾债券，显然垃圾债券与股票之间的相关性更强。但它们甚至没有反应。信用利差已经缩小到了3%左右。
You're absolutely correct. The credit spreads just keep getting tighter and tighter and tighter. The economy's better than everyone thinks. Bottom market. Remember what the people used to say? Bottom market's the most smartest market out there? I'm not sure that's correct. I just puked in my mouth. Well, by the way, I was chatting with our buddy, Chase Taylor. And he was talking about how he went back and read this book, "Is Inflation Ending? Are you ready? By the way, Chase has got a new podcast. And Brent Johnson's his first one. Go listen to it. Chase is a good guy, friend of the show. Is Inflation Ending? In this book was written by Gary Schilling and Carol Salkaloff, 1983. I think you should read it. I think it will. It sounds like your kind of book. Do you have an audio book? I don't read books. There are lots of pictures. That's perfect. I just like crayons.
你说得完全正确。信用利差一直在不断缩小。经济比大家想象的要好。底市。记得人们过去常说的那句话吗？底市是最聪明的市场？我不确定那是不是正确的。我刚刚差点吐了。顺便说一下，我和我们的朋友Chase Taylor聊过。他谈到他重新阅读了这本书《通胀结束了吗? 你准备好了吗? 顺便说一下，Chase有一个新的播客。第一个采访对象是Brent Johnson。去听听吧。Chase是个好人，我们节目的朋友。《通胀结束了吗? 这本书是由Gary Schilling和Carol Salkaloff在1983年写的。我觉得你应该读一下。我觉得会对你有帮助。听起来像是你喜欢的那种书。你有音频书籍吗？我不读书。里面有很多图片。那太棒了。我只喜欢蜡笔。
Because I feel like someone should write is Inflation Starting. Are you ready? Maybe Chase and I could write that. Yeah. I think that would be great. Yeah. 2020, how many years is that? 23. Like 40 years, whatever. Yeah. All right, Kev. I saw it. Did you want me to? Is there another chart you wanted me to mention? Is that all right? Yeah. Oh, you know what? Actually, one quick one. I just wanted to touch on ever since the Yen weakness, the Nikkei just took off again. It paused for five days, blast off to fresh new highs. Decisively above 40,000 now. I mean, this measures at the 42, 43,000. Nothing seems to be able to stop this. It's running. Could it congrats on that call, by the way? Stop thinking about it. Just own it.
因为我觉得应该有人写关于通货膨胀开始的报道。你们准备好了吗？也许Chase和我可以写这个。是的，我认为那将会很棒。2020年，那是多少年？23年。大概40年，随便吧。好的，Kev。我看到了。你想我继续吗？还有其他图表要提到吗？可以吗？是的。哦，你知道吗？其实，还有一个小事情。自从日元贬值以来，日经指数再次飙升。停顿了五天，突然飞涨创下新高。现在已经明确突破了40,000点。这可能会达到42,000或43,000点。似乎没有什么能够阻止它。它一路飙升。顺便恭喜你那个预测。别再想太多了，接受吧。
Okay. Crayons with Katbuddy. Okay. What's your? Yeah, for me. This is a funny chart. Because everyone was losing their shit about the CNY move today. Because it broke through 720 or whatever. What is the real CNY? And so I found now, I was like, oh, you know, everyone's losing their shit. Yeah. Because we moved from 720. We rallied up and that had been overhead resistance. Can you pull up CNY? Are you able to show that chart in the meantime? Yeah. Yeah. That's a good idea. You won't. So just pull up a chart to see in a while. Let's just look at that. Or CNA, it should be good enough. No, no, CNY.
好的。蜡笔和Katbuddy。好的。你是在说什么？是的，对我来说。这是一个有趣的图表。因为今天每个人都对人民币的波动感到失望。因为它突破了720或其他数字。人民币的真实价值是多少？所以我现在发现了，我想，哦，你知道，每个人都在对这个感到失望。是的。因为从720开始，我们开始上涨，并且那已经是压力线。你能看到人民币吗？你能同时展示那个图表吗？是的。这是个好主意。你不要。所以只是拉出一个图表来看一下。或者CNA，应该足够好了。不，不是CNA，是CNY。
Okay. So here's the chart of this thing. You could see that there was overhead resistance to 720 and then it, you know, exploded higher today. Exploded, quote unquote. It really didn't move that much, but people were losing their shit. So one of the things I was like, oh, why is this? What's going on here? And I went and found the CNY versus the basket of currencies that they, you know, peg this against. And that's this CFETS basket. And I've just, you know, showed this chart. And I'm going to go out on the lam crayons with Kev and say, 710, it's going to stay. You know what? I mean, it's funny because if you're looking at against the basket, there was some pretty big currency moves today. And so. But it's just funny because it's really the other stuff moving, not the, not the yen. Or sorry, not the remainder.
好的。这是这个东西的图表。你可以看到720美元的上方阻力，然后今天它爆发了。爆发，打个引号。实际上它并没有移动那么多，但是人们却失去了理智。所以其中一件事是，我想知道，为什么会这样？发生了什么？我去找到了人民币对一篮子货币的汇率，他们把这个和人民币交易的相比，那就是CFETS货币篮子。我刚刚展示了这个图表。我要和凯文一起做一些大胆的假设，说710会保持不变。你知道吗，我是说，好笑的是，如果你看对一篮子货币的情况，今天有一些相当大的货币波动。但是真的挺有趣的，因为真正有所变动的是其他东西，而不是日元。或者是说，不是其余的货币。
Great, great, great observation, Kevin. It's, I didn't pick one up. I figured that's a really good value added on like taking a peg currency and applying technical analysis to it. Genius. Yeah. So for those who don't know, it basically the chart for the past four or five months has been 710, just in a straight line almost. And so my prediction. It's still at 710. And so my prediction is that the Chinese won or remember me. I'm not sure why you call it a one or remember me. But that will stay against the basket at 710.
太棒了，太棒了，凯文，你的观察很棒。我没有注意到这一点。我觉得这是一个很好的附加值，就像拿一个固定的货币并对其进行技术分析一样。天才。是的。所以对于那些不知道的人，基本上过去四五个月的图表一直保持在710附近，几乎成一条直线。所以我的预测是仍然会保持在710。所以我的预测是，人民币或者记得我。我不确定为什么你称之为人民币或者记得我。但是它将保持在710附近对一揽子货币的值上。
All right, great call. You know what? Thanks, man. Let me analyze your crayons with Kev. Okay. Very good line drawing. The trade range prevails. All right. Let's send this show. That's what happens when I forget to do crayons and give them at a time. All right. Thanks for tuning into the market. I don't really appreciate you spending some time with us. Please give us a follow on Twitter. Daniel gets bored there. And so you got to go check us out at the market. It's actually maybe not Twitter. It's X now. Patrick, where can they find you? You can find me on X at Patrick's Resna. And follow me at bigpitchertrading.com. Kev, where can they find you, buddy? You can go check me out at themacrotourst.com and you can come to our chat there, you backslash chat. And you can welcome to join us. And listen, we can never have too many friends. Bear market bull market. We're just happy to spend some time together on this crazy ride. Now stick around for the after show. All right, Daniel. All right. Pull up your tasting notes, buddy. Right. And when he told us, I was just saying, this is like so perfect. Daniel is just like, he's like, I was so tired of drinking alone. I just said, I just want a drinking friend. I just want one. I'm going to go out of my way and get Daniel the beers. So the problem is, is when you have drinking friends, you have to understand that they also like to drink. So if you get desperate, you've got to reach in and grab something, right? Oh boy. Do you go by accident or you were like, oh no, I just need a beer. And I was like, I need, yeah. And I was out completely out and I needed something and where I lived is no shops. So you know what? I next time I'm going to give him a six pack in the beer that he's featuring. So that's how it is. Winning.
好的，打得好。你知道吗？谢谢，伙计。让我和凯夫一起分析你的蜡笔。好的。非常好的线条。交易范围仍然存在。好的。让我们发送这个节目。这就是当我忘记准备蜡笔并在最后时刻补交它们时会发生的事情。好的。感谢您收听市场信息。我真的很感激你跟我们一起花时间。请在Twitter上关注我们。丹尼尔会在那里感到无聊。所以你得去市场找到我们，可能不是在Twitter上，现在是在X上。帕特里克，他们可以在哪里找到你？你可以在X上找到我，我的用户名是帕特里克。关注我的网站bigpicturetrading.com。凯夫，他们可以在哪里找到你，伙计？你可以在themacrotourst.com找到我，你可以进入我们的聊天室，欢迎加入我们。听着，我们永远都不会有太多的朋友。牛市熊市，我们很高兴一起度过这疯狂的旅程。现在留在观看节目后。好的，丹尼尔。好的。拿出你的品酒笔记，伙计。没错。当他告诉我们时，我只是说，这太完美了。丹尼尔就像，他就像，我厌倦了一个人喝酒，我只是想要一个喝酒的朋友。我只是想要一个。我会主动去给丹尼尔买啤酒。问题是，当你有喝酒的朋友时，你必须明白他们也喜欢喝酒。所以如果你感到绝望，你就得伸手进去拿点什么，对吧？哦，天哪。你是不小心拿错了还是你是故意的？哦不，我只是需要一杯啤酒。我完全喝光了，我需要一些什么，在我住的地方附近没有商店。所以下次我会给他一整箱正在推荐的啤酒。这就是实况。胜出。
Okay. So let's get out the tasting notes. Start with Daniel since he's written his down. Oh yeah. Sorry. I didn't actually read out the tasting notes of the beer. For me, I actually thought it was really good. It was quite smooth. A little bit hoppy, nice and citrusy. It was an easy drinker, to be honest. It's like marks and Spencer's like that shop where you buy like clothes and stuff, isn't it? Yeah, I feel like I didn't describe it very well. So it's kind of like- The department store, is it not?
好的。那么让我们拿出品酒笔记。先从丹尼尔开始，因为他已经写下了他的。哦，是的。抱歉。我实际上没有读出啤酒的品酒笔记。对我来说，我真的觉得很好。它很顺滑。有点多花，香气柑橘。说实话，它很容易入口。就像马克斯和斯宾塞一样，就像那家你可以买衣服之类的店，对吧？是的，我觉得我没有很好地描述它。所以它有点像-百货商店，不是吗？
Yeah. For posh people, yeah. Okay. For posh people. It's- For people and old people, yeah, pretty much. That citrusy taste pops out. That's- I'll agree. Well, first of all, give it a rating. One out of 10. I think it's a solid six. That's an amateur move you're already starting off with even numbers. Even numbers. You always have to give it a decimal. And the second thing- Six. I like this style though.
是的。对于高尚的人们，对。好的。对于高尚的人们。对人们和老年人来说，味道很不错。那种柑橘味突显出来。我同意。嗯，首先，给它一个评分。十分制，我觉得是六分。开始就用偶数太菜了。偶数啊， 你总是要给个小数。第二个问题， 六分。我喜欢这个风格。
So- So- So- So- So- So- So- So- So- But- He hasn't got onto the pattern that we only rate something under five if it's complete dog. No, listen, he can choose his own pattern. Yeah, he's going to be bold and wants to call for twos and ones. That's true. Who am I to give him? Exactly. Don't- Don't put our morality in terms of our- our doing it. I will say the even number is a little bit of amateur, but otherwise if he wants to do even numbers, let him do even numbers. All right. All right. So- That's all at six. I didn't realize it was going to get so judged.
嗯-嗯-嗯-嗯-嗯-嗯-嗯-嗯-但是-他还没有意识到我们只在完全糟糕的情况下才会给出低于五分的评分。不，听着，他可以选择自己的评分标准。是的，他想要勇敢地只给出两分或一分的评分。没错。我有什么资格指责他呢？对，不要-不要用我们的伦理道德来限制他的评分标准。我觉得只评出偶数分有点业余，但如果他想要评出偶数分，就让他评出偶数分吧。好的。好的。所以-这全都是六分。我没意识到会被如此审视。
Yeah. And so we're going to find out in the future where six stands on your scale. So it's a little bit of a journey we're all going to learn. All right. Exactly. That's your- Where's yours? Now- So- IPAs. The hoppy and citrusy taste usually comes with a very heavy like alcohol taste that like- This is incredibly smooth IPA. Like, obviously it's probably because it's a lower alcohol, 5.5%. But this is- Kevin, I'm going to say the word. What's- What word am I about to say? Oh, God.
是的。因此，未来我们将找出六在你的评价标准上的位置。所以这是一个我们所有人都将学习的旅程。好的。没错。这是你的- 你的在哪里？现在- 所以- IPA。这种充满酒花和柑橘味的味道通常带有一种非常浓的酒精味，就像- 这是非常顺滑的IPA。显然这可能是因为它的酒精含量较低，5.5%。但这个- 凯文，我要说的话，你猜我要说的是什么词？哦，天哪。
No, I'm not gonna say it. You say it. You say it. It's sessionable. It's sessionable. It's sessionable beer. I was thinking the exact same thing. Thank you, Daniel. Yeah. See, I like him. I like him. Yeah, well, he was like- He drinks with- He doesn't even drink with you. You shouldn't like him. I do drink with Pat though. That's the problem. That's true. Yeah. I can just see you two degenerates in Portugal. Pretty much. Oh my God.
不，我不会说。你说吧。你说吧。这是可以一直喝的。这是可以一直喝的。这是可以一直喝的啤酒。我也是这么想的。谢谢，丹尼尔。是的。看，我喜欢他。我喜欢他。嗯，他就是…他和你一起喝酒的吧。你不应该喜欢他。我确实和帕特一起喝酒。这就是问题所在。没错。嗯。我可以看到你们两个在葡萄牙的样子。差不多。天啊。
Okay, Patrick's got things to do. Yeah. And it's getting late for both of you. So we're going to let you go. Everyone have a great week. A couple of weeks. We'll see you- I don't see you on the other side. On April. Cheers. Take care.
好的，帕特里克有事情要做。是的。而且现在对你们两个来说也有点晚了。所以我们要让你们走了。大家祝你们有一个愉快的一周。两周。我们等着你们——我在四月份见。干杯。保重。