4680 Synthetic Anode Confirmed // What are the implications?

Welcome back everyone, I'm Jordan Geisigee and this is The Limiting Factor. A little over a year ago, I shared the specs for the 4680 battery cell analyzed by Shirley Mungslab at UC San Diego. However, there was one more test to be carried out that took a few more months to line up. X-ray diffraction analysis of the anode. The result of that test was that it confirmed that the 4680 cell that was tested uses synthetic graphite for the anode. The question is, what does that mean and what are the implications for Tesla? To answer that, today I'm going to walk you through the analysis done by UC San Diego, the differences between synthetic and natural graphite anodes, why Tesla may have chosen synthetic graphite and what that choice could mean for Tesla's supply chain.

大家好，欢迎回来，我是乔丹·盖希吉，这里是“限制因素”。一年多前，我分享了由加利福尼亚大学圣迭戈分校的雪莉·蒙斯拉布分析的4680电池电芯规格。然而，还有一个测试需要进行，需要几个月的时间来准备。这个测试是关于阳极的X射线衍射分析。测试的结果证实，被测试的4680电池使用的是合成石墨作为阳极。问题是，这意味着什么，对特斯拉有什么影响呢？为了回答这个问题，今天我将向您介绍加州大学圣迭戈分校进行的分析，合成和天然石墨阳极之间的区别，特斯拉为何选择合成石墨，以及这个选择对特斯拉供应链可能产生的影响。

Before we begin, a special thanks to my Patreon supporters, YouTube members and Twitter subscribers as well as RebellionAir.com. They specialize in helping investors manage concentrated positions. RebellionAir can help with covered calls, risk management and creating a money master plan from your financial first principles. Additionally, thanks to Shirley Mung of UC San Diego for organizing funding for the 4680 analysis as the Zabel Endowed Chair in Energy Technologies in Jacob's School of Engineering. And thanks to Y-ConGlee for performing the analysis, assembling the slides and answering my questions.

在我们开始之前，特别感谢我的Patreon支持者、YouTube会员和Twitter订阅者，以及RebellionAir.com。他们专门帮助投资者管理集中仓位。RebellionAir可以帮助您进行认股权证交易、风险管理，并根据您的财务第一原则创建一个理财大师计划。此外，感谢加州大学圣地亚哥分校的Shirley Mung为Jacob工程学院Zabel能源技术讲座资助4680分析的组织工作。再次感谢Y-ConGlee进行分析，整理幻灯片并回答我的问题。

To kick things off, I first need to clarify the terminology I'll be using. There are two types of graphite, synthetic and natural. I'll explain the difference between the two later in the video, but for now, in short, synthetic graphite is manufactured, whereas natural graphite is formed by geologic processes. Bear in mind that synthetic graphite can also be called artificial graphite, and I'll be using those terms interchangeably throughout the video. Whether graphite is synthetic or natural, it can be used in everything from lubricants to coatings to batteries. The graphite that's used in batteries is further processed into a specially product that's used as the anode or negative electrode of battery cells. That is, natural and synthetic graphite refer to the raw materials, and those raw materials are used to produce finished products, which, for this video, I'm going to refer to as natural and synthetic anode.

首先，我需要澄清我将要使用的术语。石墨有两种类型，合成和天然。我将在视频中稍后解释两者之间的区别，但暂时来说，合成石墨是人造的，而天然石墨是由地质过程形成的。请记住，合成石墨也可以被称为人造石墨，我在视频中会交替使用这两个术语。无论石墨是合成的还是天然的，它都可以用于润滑剂、涂料甚至电池等各种用途。在电池中使用的石墨经过进一步加工，制成一种专门用作电池电池阴极或负极的产品。也就是说，天然和合成石墨指的是原材料，而这些原材料用于生产成品，而在这个视频中，我将称之为天然和合成阳极。

With that understanding in place, let's take a look at the analysis from Shirley Mung's team at UC San Diego. Y Kong Lee provided me with two pieces of evidence that the 4680 is using artificial graphite. The first is this slide which shows a scanning electron microscope, or SEM, image of a reference artificial graphite sample versus the graphite used in the 4680. And based on visual cues, the 4680 appears to use artificial graphite. What are the visual cues we should be looking for here? In a word, porosity. One screen is a comparison between a natural graphite particle and an artificial graphite particle. The porosity of natural and artificial graphite can vary somewhat depending on how it was manufactured, but in general what we see here is representative of what's typical. As you can see, the artificial graphite contains fewer and smaller voids than the natural graphite particle. However, when graphite particles are coated to the electrode foil and a production battery cell, the coating process involves crushing the graphite onto the electrode foil in a process called calendaring. That calendaring process can also create porosity.

在这个理解的基础上，让我们来看一下加州圣迭戈分校Shirley Mung团队的分析。Kong Lee向我提供了两条证据，说明4680在使用人造石墨。第一条是这张幻灯片，展示了一个参考人造石墨样本和4680中使用的石墨的扫描电子显微镜图像。根据视觉线索，4680似乎使用的是人造石墨。我们应该在这里寻找什么视觉线索呢？一句话，多孔性。一个屏幕是天然石墨颗粒与人造石墨颗粒的比较。天然石墨和人造石墨的多孔性可能会有所不同，取决于它的制造方式，但总的来说，我们在这里看到的是典型的代表。如您所见，人造石墨比天然石墨颗粒含有更少且更小的空隙。然而，当石墨颗粒被涂覆到电极箔和生产电池单元时，涂覆过程涉及到将石墨在一个称为卷压的过程中压到电极箔上。这个卷压过程也会产生多孔性。

The comparison images I showed of natural and artificial graphite have a rounded shape, and therefore don't appear to have gone through a calendaring process. So although they do a good job of illustrating how porosity can vary between natural and artificial graphite that's in a standalone powder, they don't serve as a good benchmark for the graphite from a production battery cell. That's as opposed to the graphite samples in the slide from UC San Diego, which are both from battery cells that have been through the full production process. That's evidenced by the flattened top layer. If we look at the porosity of the artificial graphite reference versus the 4680 graphite, we can see that the porosity is relatively similar. That is, at first glance, the SEM images appear to be similar materials, which gives us one point of verification that the 4680 is using artificial graphite.

我展示的天然石墨和人工石墨的对比图像呈现出圆形，因此看起来并没有经历过压延工艺。因此，虽然它们很好地说明了天然和人工石墨在独立粉末中孔隙度如何变化，但它们并不能作为生产电池单元中石墨的良好基准。与来自UC圣地亚哥幻灯片中的石墨样本相比，后者都经历了完整的生产过程。这通过平整的顶层得以证明。如果我们比较人工石墨参考样品与4680石墨的孔隙度，我们可以看到孔隙度相对类似。也就是说，乍一看，扫描电镜图像似乎是相似的材料，这为我们提供了一个验证点，即4680使用的是人工石墨。

But what about a stronger verification signal? UC San Diego also provided this X-ray diffraction analysis. X-ray diffraction, or XRD, basically means shining X-rays through a material. The way that the X-rays bounce through that material gives a fingerprint of that material. Artificial and natural graphite have distinct XRD fingerprints. So if you compare an unknown graphite sample to the known fingerprints, it allows you to confirm whether you're looking at natural or artificial graphite. On the far right of the slide is a reference plot that provides a key for what those fingerprints look like. However, it uses a lot of jargon and acronyms that I can boil down into plain English. With that in mind, I'll remove the reference plot to simplify the page, leaving just the analysis results.

但是如果使用更强的验证信号呢？加州大学圣地亚哥分校也提供了这个X射线衍射分析。X射线衍射，简称XRD，基本上是通过材料来照射X射线。X射线穿过材料的方式会形成该材料的指纹。人造和天然石墨有着不同的XRD指纹。因此，如果将未知的石墨样品与已知的指纹进行比较，就可以确认你所看到的是天然石墨还是人造石墨。在幻灯片的最右边是一个提供指纹样式的参考图，但其中使用了很多专业术语和缩写词，我可以将其简化为通俗易懂的英文。考虑到这一点，我将删除参考图，简化页面，只保留分析结果。

For this analysis, Ycong Lee used two benchmarks for double confirmation. The sample in black is the 4680 graphite. The sample in red was from an LG 2170 battery cell that's known to use artificial graphite. And the sample in blue was an artificial graphite reference material. To confirm the XRD fingerprints match, the key part of the XRD plot to look at is the box highlighted in light green. That's because this is the area of the plot where natural and artificial graphite would differ in their XRD fingerprints. To provide greater clarity, Ycong provided an expanded view of the area highlighted in green to the right of the main plot.

在这项分析中，Ycong Lee使用了两个基准进行双重确认。黑色样本为4680石墨，红色样本来自已知使用人造石墨的LG 2170电池单体，蓝色样本是人造石墨参考材料。为了确认XRD指纹匹配，需要查看XRD图中被标记为浅绿色框的关键部分。这是因为这个区域是自然和人造石墨在XRD指纹上有区别的区域。为了提供更清晰的观点，Ycong在主图右侧提供了标记为绿色的区域的扩大视图。

As you can see, although the height of the black, red, and blue lines differ slightly, their shape is fundamentally the same. Two separate peaks with a shorter peak on the left and a taller peak on the right. This means the fingerprints match and they're all the same material, artificial graphite. So we can say with a high level of confidence that the 4680 is using artificial graphite for the anode. Before we move on, let's cover two notes on the UC San Diego XRD analysis. First, Ycong Lee used several milligrams of powder. That means the analysis looked at tens of thousands of particles.

正如你所看到的，尽管黑色、红色和蓝色线条的高度略有不同，但它们的形状基本相同。两个分离的峰，左侧是较矮的峰，右侧是较高的峰。这意味着指纹匹配，它们都是同一种材料，人造石墨。因此我们可以非常有信心地说，4680正在使用人造石墨作为阳极材料。在我们继续之前，让我们谈谈对加州大学圣地亚哥分析的两点注意。首先，李永聪使用了几毫克的粉末。这意味着分析查看了数万个颗粒。

So there's no chance that any potential natural graphite was missed on account of it not being included in the sample. Second, however, with that said, the XRD machine did have a detection limit of 5%. So there is a small chance that there was some natural graphite in the sample, but it wouldn't change the main conclusion, which is that the graphite used in the generation 14680 cell is predominantly synthetic rather than a blend containing any significant amount of natural graphite. Moving along, the next question is, what are the differences between synthetic and natural graphite and why does it matter?

因此，没有任何潜在的天然石墨会被错过，因为它没有包含在样本中。然而，其次，这意味着XRD机器的检测限度为5%。因此，样本中可能存在一些天然石墨的小概率，但这不会改变主要结论，即在生成14680电池中使用的石墨主要是合成的，而不是含有大量天然石墨的混合物。接下来，下一个问题是，合成石墨和天然石墨之间有什么区别，为什么这很重要？

To understand that, let's start with a quick comparison of the manufacturing processes for synthetic versus natural graphite. As I said earlier, natural graphite is formed through geologic processes. Carbon-rich material is heated and compressed deep in the earth over millions of years, which causes it to form into thousands of layers of carbon sheets, also known as graphene. That is, graphite is just a carbon-based crystal made of thousands of layers of graphene. Artificial graphite is also produced using carbon-rich material, such as needle coke from coal or oil.

为了理解这一点，让我们先快速比较一下合成和天然石墨的制造过程。正如我之前所说，天然石墨是通过地质过程形成的。碳丰富的材料在地下经过数百万年的加热和压缩，导致其形成成千上万层的碳片，也被称为石墨烯。也就是说，石墨实际上只是由成千上万层石墨烯组成的碳基晶体。人造石墨也是使用碳丰富的材料制造的，例如煤炭或石油中的针状焦。

And instead of being heated and compressed deep in the earth for millions of years, it's heated in a furnace to over 2,500 degrees Celsius for hours or even days to graphitize the carbon material. If the raw graphite in hand, whether it's natural or artificial, it then undergoes processing steps to form the graphite into particles of the right purity, size, shape, and surface texture. After those steps are complete, the graphite becomes what I'm referring to in this video as natural anode and synthetic anode, which is a finished product rather than a raw material.

相反，石墨并非在地球深处被加热和压缩数百万年，而是在炉中被加热到2500摄氏度以上，持续数小时甚至数天以使其石墨化。无论是天然的还是人造的原始石墨，都经过加工步骤使其形成具有适当纯度、尺寸、形状和表面纹理的颗粒。这些步骤完成后，石墨就成为我在视频中提到的天然阳极和合成阳极，这已经是成品而不是原材料。

The next question is how do the cost, performance, and environmental profiles of natural and synthetic anode compare? First, with regards to cost, in the past four years, on average, the price of synthetic anode has typically cost about 15-25% more than natural graphite. That's because for natural graphite, mother nature did most of the work, whereas heating the synthetic graphite feedstock to thousands of degrees Celsius for hours or days uses about 13-14 megawatt hours to produce each ton of graphite. Second, with regards to performance, when I did a meta-analysis of natural versus synthetic anode a few years ago, the conclusion I came to was that performance is heavily product-dependent.

下一个问题是天然和合成阳极的成本、性能和环境特点如何比较？首先，就成本而言，在过去四年中，合成阳极的价格通常比天然石墨高出约15-25%。这是因为对于天然石墨来说，大自然完成了大部分工作，而将合成石墨原料加热到数千摄氏度数小时甚至数天需要消耗约13-14兆瓦时才能生产一吨石墨。其次，就性能而言，几年前我做了一项天然与合成阳极的荟萃分析，我得出的结论是性能严重依赖于产品。

But that overall, natural anode offers great performance at low cost, whereas synthetic anode offers excellent performance at high cost. What do I mean by performance? Synthetic offers higher cycle life, thermal stability, and better charge and discharge rates. Natural anode can have an edge in energy density, but it's typically only a 1-2% advantage. The biggest advantage that natural graphite has over synthetic is that it tends to have much lower GWP, or global warming potential by around 75% less. That raises the question. If Tesla's mission statement is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy, presumably to reduce the impacts of climate change due to CO2 emissions, why would they use any synthetic graphite that's made from fossil fuel waste and has higher CO2 emissions than natural graphite? Let's tackle that question from two levels. First, at a broader level to provide some perspective, and then from a technical and supply chain standpoint.

然而，总体而言，天然阳极提供了低成本的出色性能，而合成阳极则以高成本提供了优秀的性能。我所指的性能是什么？合成阳极提供更高的循环寿命，热稳定性，以及更好的充电和放电速率。天然阳极在能量密度方面可能有优势，但通常只有1-2％的优势。天然石墨相对合成石墨最大的优势在于，天然石墨的全球变暖潜势（GWP）要低得多，约降低75％。这就引发了一个问题。如果特斯拉的使命宣言是加速世界向可持续能源转变，预计是为了减少由二氧化碳排放引起的气候变化影响，那么他们为什么会使用任何从化石燃料废料制成且二氧化碳排放量高于天然石墨的合成石墨呢？让我们从两个层面回答这个问题。首先，从更广泛的角度提供一些视角，然后从技术和供应链角度。

This image is from Tesla's 2022 impact report. It shows that it takes less than two years worth of driving before the total emissions from an EV fall below that of a comparable internal combustion vehicle. That's because even though many EVs use synthetic anodes made from fossil fuel by products in CO2 intensive processes, those are one-off emissions from manufacturing. Internal combustion vehicles use hundreds of gallons or thousands of liters of fuel per year, every year throughout their life. So even if EVs release about 50% more CO2 during the manufacturing process, their fuel, so to speak, is electrons and not a carbon-based liquid that has to be burned to move the vehicle. So the ongoing emissions are about 80% less on a yearly basis. Yes, a portion of the grid does generate energy from fossil fuels, but the electrical grid in the US and Europe are now primarily powered by natural gas, nuclear, and renewable energy sources which produce far less CO2 emissions and pollutants than coal or gasoline. With all that said, the fact that the lifetime CO2 emissions of EVs is lower than internal combustion vehicles still doesn't fully explain the logic of why Tesla would use synthetic over natural graphite, which at face value would appear to reduce total emissions even further. So what's going on here? In my view, that face value assessment fails to take into account technical and supply chain variables. Let's take a look.

这幅图片来自特斯拉2022年的影响报告。它显示，在电动汽车的总排放低于可比较的内燃机车辆之前，仅需不到两年的驾驶时间。这是因为尽管许多电动汽车使用合成阳极，这些阳极是在二氧化碳排放强度高的过程中使用化石燃料副产品制造出来的，但这些只是制造过程中的一次性排放。内燃机车辆每年需要消耗数百加仑或数千升燃料，而且在它们的使用寿命中每年都要如此。因此，即使电动汽车在制造过程中释放的二氧化碳多大约50％，它们的“燃料”是电子而不是燃烧以移动汽车的碳基液体。因此，其持续排放量每年约减少80％。是的，电网的一部分确实通过化石燃料产生能源，但美国和欧洲的电网现在主要由天然气、核能和可再生能源提供动力，这些能源产生的二氧化碳排放和污染物远低于煤炭或汽油。综上所述，电动汽车的寿命周期二氧化碳排放量低于内燃机车辆，但这仍无法完全解释为什么特斯拉会选择合成石墨而不是天然石墨，表面上看来后者会进一步减少总排放。那么这里到底发生了什么呢？在我看来，这种表面评估未考虑到技术和供应链变量。我们来看一看。

Bear in mind that this is my best guess at Tesla's graphite anode strategy from what we know at this point in time. That strategy may evolve over time, and they might use different anode material or blends of anode material in different continents, or even different lines at the same facility servicing different products. The first reason why Tesla's using synthetic anode is that, overall, it has better performance or the performance characteristics they're looking for. As I said earlier, albeit at a higher cost, synthetic is able to offer higher cycle life, better thermal stability, and better charge and discharge rates. Tesla's certainly run the cost benefit analysis, and at least for the time being, they view higher cycle life and faster charge rates as a priority. The second reason could be scalability. Tesla has ambitious growth plans, and when it comes to batteries, they tend to work with the largest material suppliers in the world that have the greatest ability to scale. The fossil fuel industry is roughly two orders of magnitude, or 100 times larger, than the battery industry. Although it is true that needle coke sourced from coal and oil to make synthetic anode is a highly specialized chemical, it may be faster, easier, and more reliable to get oil refiners to expand needle coke production than it is to wait for natural graphite mines to gain financing and regulatory approval to build their projects, which can take 7-10 years. Building on the scalability point, the third reason Tesla's using synthetic graphite may be that they're moving as fast as possible to build at least one terawatt hour of vertically integrated battery manufacturing capacity in the US. In my view, there are three reasons for that. First, China has a near monopoly on the global supply of battery materials, particularly graphite anode production, which is a supply chain risk for Tesla. Second, it's an opportunity to reduce the manufacturing related CO2 emissions of their vehicles. And third, it'll reduce logistics costs and CO2 emissions from transport. Let's take a look at each.

请记住，这只是我对特斯拉石墨阳极战略的最佳猜测，根据我们目前所知道的。这一战略可能随着时间变化，并且在不同大陆、甚至同一设施为不同产品提供服务的不同生产线上，他们可能会使用不同的阳极材料或混合阳极材料。特斯拉使用合成阳极的第一个原因是，总体来说，它具有更好的性能或他们正在寻找的性能特征。正如我之前所说，虽然成本更高，但合成材料能够提供更长的循环寿命，更好的热稳定性，以及更好的充放电速率。特斯拉肯定进行了成本效益分析，至少目前他们认为更长的循环寿命和更快的充电速率是优先考虑的。第二个原因可能是可扩展性。特斯拉有雄心勃勃的增长计划，当涉及到电池时，他们倾向于与世界上最大的材料供应商合作，这些供应商具有最大的扩展能力。石油化工行业大约比电池行业大两个数量级，或者说是电池行业的100倍。尽管从煤炭和石油中获取针状焦来制造合成阳极是一项非常专业的化学过程，但是让炼油厂扩大针状焦的生产可能会更快、更容易、更可靠，而不是等待天然石墨矿获得融资和监管批准建设他们的项目，这可能需要7-10年的时间。基于可扩展性的观点，特斯拉使用合成石墨的第三个原因可能是他们正以最快的速度在美国建设至少一个一兆瓦时的垂直一体化电池制造能力。在我的看来，这么做有三个原因。首先，中国几乎垄断了全球电池材料市场，尤其是石墨阳极生产，这对特斯拉来说是供应链风险。其次，这是一个减少他们车辆制造相关二氧化碳排放的机会。第三，这将减少物流成本和运输中的二氧化碳排放。让我们分别来看一下每一个原因。

So what's the path of least resistance for Tesla to build a vertically integrated graphite supply chain in the US? Tesla's Austin Gigafactory, which will be home to most of their North American battery cell production, is in the heart of Texas. And Texas is of course the heart of the fossil fuel industry in the United States, with ample refining capacity and expertise nearby on the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, on the Texas-Louisiana border is Philips 66 Lake Charles Coke production plant. Outside of China, Philips 66 is the leading worldwide producer of needle coke used to produce synthetic anode. And Lake Charles is only one of two global locations where Philips produces that needle coke. What all this means is that the precursor materials that Tesla would need to create a vertically integrated synthetic graphite anode supply chain are already there on the Gulf Coast, near the Austin Gigafactory.

那么，对特斯拉来说，在美国建立一个垂直一体化的石墨供应链的最直接路径是什么呢？特斯拉的奥斯汀工厂将成为他们大部分北美电池生产的基地，位于得克萨斯州中心。而德克萨斯州当然是美国化石燃料工业的中心，拥有丰富的精炼能力和专业知识，靠近墨西哥湾。事实上，在德克萨斯州和路易斯安那州交界处，有飞利浦66公司的查尔斯湖焦炭生产工厂。除了中国以外，飞利浦66是全球领先的用于生产合成阳极的针状焦炭的生产商，并且查尔斯湖只是飞利浦在全球两个生产这种针状焦炭的地点之一。所有这些意味着，特斯拉需要创建一个垂直一体化的合成石墨阳极供应链所需的前体材料已经在墨西哥湾沿岸，靠近奥斯汀工厂。

Why would Tesla use natural graphite if there's a ready-made supply chain on their doorstep that at least for this decade potentially has the ability to scale to huge volumes of raw material relatively quickly? Furthermore, vertically integrating synthetic anode production in and around Texas would also give Tesla a chance to address the two primary drawbacks of synthetic anode, which are that it has a large CO2 footprint and that it's typically more expensive than natural anode. As I said earlier, needle coke has to be heated to 2500 degrees Celsius to graphitize the carbon, which is energy intensive. Since most synthetic graphite is produced in China, the huge amount of power that's required is provided mainly by coal-fired power plants, which in turn release huge amounts of CO2.

为什么特斯拉要使用天然石墨，而不是利用他们家门口的一个现成供应链呢？至少在这个十年内，这个供应链有潜力迅速扩大到大规模的原材料。此外，在得克萨斯州及周边地区垂直整合合成阴极生产，也给了特斯拉一个机会解决合成阴极的两个主要缺点，即它的大量二氧化碳排放和通常比天然阴极更昂贵。正如我之前提到的，针状焦必须加热到摄氏2500度以图形化碳，这是耗能的。由于大多数合成石墨是在中国生产，所需的巨大电力主要由燃煤电厂提供，这反过来释放出大量二氧化碳。

The grid in the US is much cleaner, meaning that synthetic anode produced in the US would have lower CO2 emissions. Furthermore, Tesla could provide their own solar panels and battery storage to drive down electricity costs and reduce the CO2 emissions at the particle refinement stage, which is also energy intensive. Beyond that, a secondary source of emissions for Chinese synthetic graphite is transport. As this image from Novonic shows, some of the needle coke that's used to produce synthetic anode in China can come from as far away as Philip's 66 Humber Plant in the United Kingdom. Then when it arrives in China, it bounces around to different production plants to convert it to a finished anode product before being shipped to the United States to go into a battery cell.

美国的电网更加清洁，意味着在美国生产的合成阳极会有更低的二氧化碳排放量。此外，特斯拉可以提供他们自己的太阳能电池板和电池储存设备，以降低电费并减少在颗粒精炼阶段的二氧化碳排放量，这个阶段也需要大量能源。除此之外，中国合成石墨的另一个排放来源是运输。正如Novonic的图片所示，用于生产中国合成阳极的一部分针状焦炭可能来自英国的Phillips 66亨伯工厂等远距离地方。然后当它到达中国时，会在不同的生产工厂间移动，转化为最终的阳极产品，然后被运到美国用于制造电池。

This is almost 25,000 miles of travel and corresponding CO2 emissions. If Tesla decided to vertically integrate anode production in Texas, they could set up an anode refinery in Corpus Christi near their lithium refinery. Ship in synthetic graphite from Philip's 66, in Lake Charles, for refinement into synthetic anode and then send the finished synthetic anode to Austin to go into batteries. Of course, they could buy that anode from a company like Novonics if they decided not to vertically integrate or if they wanted to diversify their supply chain. Novonics is pursuing a similar vertical integration strategy in the US and their assessment shows that by using hydropower and reducing transport distances, that they can achieve a 60% reduction in global warming potential for their synthetic anode versus a comparable synthetic anode from China and a 30% reduction in global warming potential compared to a natural anode from China.

这意味着大约行驶2.5万英里，相应产生二氧化碳排放。如果特斯拉决定在德克萨斯州垂直整合阳极生产，他们可以在Corpus Christi建立一个阳极精炼厂，靠近他们的锂精炼厂。从Philip's 66在Lake Charles进口合成石墨，精炼成合成阳极，然后将成品合成阳极送往奥斯丁用于电池生产。当然，如果他们决定不进行垂直整合或希望多样化供应链，他们也可以从Novonics等公司购买阳极。Novonics正在美国追求类似的垂直整合策略，他们的评估显示，通过使用水力发电和减少运输距离，他们可以实现合成阳极的全球变暖潜力比中国的合成阳极降低60％，比中国的天然阳极降低30％。

It looks like their calculation may have been different from benchmark minerals calculation but even in a worst case scenario, synthetic anode produced in the US from clean energy would be roughly on par with natural anode from China. Finally, on cost. As I showed earlier, synthetic anode typically costs significantly more than natural anode. However, that cost advantage is narrowing. The price premium for high-end synthetic anode produced in China is now only about 7%. I don't know if that trend will hold but it does show that the price difference is surmountable. As a side note, thanks to Lars Lee's doll of Ristad Energy for supplying this graph for the video. If you're on X, give them a follow.

他们的计算结果似乎与基准矿物公司的计算结果有所不同，但即使在最糟糕的情况下，用清洁能源在美国生产的合成阳极大致与中国的天然阳极价格相当。最后，谈到成本。正如我之前所展示的，合成阳极的成本通常比自然阳极高得多。然而，这种成本优势正在缩小。目前，中国生产的高端合成阳极的价格溢价仅约为7％。我不知道这种趋势是否会继续，但它确实显示了价格差距是可以克服的。另外感谢Lars Lee的Ristad Energy公司为本视频提供了这张图表。如果你使用X平台，请关注他们。

If Tesla vertically integrated synthetic anode production in the US to reduce shipping costs, cut out the middleman costs which can easily run 20% and provided their own cheap solar and batteries at production costs, they might actually be able to reduce the cost of their synthetic anode to below the cost of natural anode from China while ending up with a higher performance product. Again, bear in mind, this is all informed speculation on my part. The intent here is to provide a framework for thinking about why Tesla chose synthetic anode for the 4680, how the supply chain could evolve over time and why that matters.

如果特斯拉在美国进行垂直整合的合成阳极生产，以降低运输成本，并削减可能高达20％的中间商成本，同时提供自己的廉价太阳能和电池生产成本，他们实际上可能能够将合成阳极的成本降低到低于中国天然阳极的成本，同时还能获得更高性能的产品。再次，请记住，这些只是我的猜测。这里的目的是为了提供一个框架，让大家思考为什么特斯拉选择4680的合成阳极，供应链如何随时间演变以及为什么这很重要。

Before we move on to the summary, let's cover two points that might show up in the comments. Some people might point out that, as I showed in my previous videos, Tesla currently isn't using any silicon in the 4680, but that they intend to use much more in the future. Why is graphite anode supply a concern to Tesla if they're moving towards higher silicon anodes in the future? It's because the silicon in the anode will be the salt in the salad and graphite is needed to buffer the expansion and contraction of the silicon. Because of that, I don't see Tesla using any more than 20% silicon by weight in the anode of their battery cells this decade. That means by far the bulk of the anode will still be graphite, so the use of silicon will reduce the amount of graphite they'll need, but over time they'll still need hundreds of thousands of tons of graphite per year.

在我们总结之前，让我们先讨论可能会出现在评论中的两个问题。一些人可能会指出，正如我在之前的视频中展示的那样，特斯拉目前在4680电池中并没有使用硅，但他们打算在未来使用更多硅。如果他们将来要使用更多硅质阳极，为什么石墨阳极的供应会成为特斯拉的一个关注点呢？这是因为阳极中的硅将是色拉中的盐，而需要石墨来缓冲硅的膨胀和收缩。因此，我认为在本十年内，特斯拉不会在他们电池的阳极中使用超过20%的硅质。这意味着绝大部分的阳极仍将是石墨，因此使用硅会减少他们需要的石墨数量，但随着时间的推移，他们仍然每年需要数十万吨的石墨。

Second, what does the fact that Tesla is using synthetic anode mean for Novonics and TALGA, which I did videos on a few years ago? In both cases, in my view, it doesn't impact them positively or negatively. That's because what matters for those companies to succeed is that they can hit commercial scale and that their products offer good performance for their price. If they can do that, they'll sell every kilogram of anode material they can produce, because for the rest of the decade there's huge demand for graphite anode.

那么，特斯拉使用合成阳极的事实对我几年前在视频中介绍过的Novonics和TALGA意味着什么呢？在我看来，这两种情况下，它们都不会受到积极或消极影响。这是因为这些公司成功的关键在于能否达到商业规模，以及他们的产品是否能够以合理的价格提供良好性能。如果他们能做到这一点，他们将能够销售他们能够生产的每一公斤阳极材料，因为在这个十年的剩余时间里，对石墨阳极的需求非常巨大。

In summary, the best available analysis we have so far indicates that the 4680 battery cell is using synthetic graphite and no natural graphite. This result may be surprising because natural graphite seems like a more environmentally friendly option. However, looking at it through a more strategic lens, even though synthetic graphite has higher CO2 emissions per unit of material produced, there are other factors that balance that out. First, synthetic graphite tends to be able to achieve higher cycle life than natural graphite and could make each battery sell that Tesla produces last longer. That means each vehicle will be on the road longer, spreading the CO2 emissions from manufacturing over more years and therefore reducing the average CO2 emissions per year.

综上所述，我们目前拥有的最佳分析显示，4680电池单元使用的是合成石墨，而不是天然石墨。这个结果可能令人惊讶，因为天然石墨似乎是一个更环保的选择。然而，通过更战略的眼光看待，尽管合成石墨每生产一单位材料的CO2排放更高，但还有其他因素来平衡这一点。首先，合成石墨往往能够达到比天然石墨更高的循环寿命，可以使特斯拉生产的每个电池单元持续更久。这意味着每辆车将行驶更长时间，将制造过程中的CO2排放在更多年份内分散，从而降低每年的平均CO2排放量。

Second, if Tesla localized the supply chain, that could reduce the global warming potential of synthetic graphite to the point where it's at parity or even lower than natural graphite. Third, if Tesla finds they can scale and vertically integrate synthetic graphite production in the US more quickly than natural graphite, that means more EVs on the road reducing global CO2 emissions. Yes, those vehicles might have higher CO2 emissions in the manufacturing stage than vehicles produced using natural graphite, but due to the cumulative benefits over time, it's obviously better to have those vehicles on the road than internal combustion vehicles.

其次，如果特斯拉将供应链本地化，那可能会减少合成石墨的全球变暖潜力，使其达到与天然石墨相同甚至更低的水平。第三，如果特斯拉发现他们能够比天然石墨更快地在美国扩大和垂直整合合成石墨生产，那就意味着更多的电动车上路，减少全球二氧化碳排放。是的，这些车辆在制造阶段的二氧化碳排放可能高于使用天然石墨生产的车辆，但由于随着时间累积的好处，显然还是更好让这些车辆上路，而不是内燃机车辆。

And by a large margin, the only remaining question I have is how a battery strategy based on synthetic anode will work out in the long run because the world is moving away from fossil fuels. That may mean that the supply of needle coke as a fossil fuel byproduct will become more scarce over time. With that said, interestingly, in my research for this video, I did come across ways to create needle coke that are potentially more environmentally friendly, such as liquefying coal to turn it into coal tar. If you'd like me to make a video on that, let me know in the comments below.

相比之下，我唯一剩下的一个问题是，基于合成阳极的电池策略将来会有怎样的发展，因为世界正在逐渐远离化石燃料。这可能意味着作为化石燃料副产品的针状焦变得越来越稀缺。话虽如此，在为这个视频做研究时，我确实发现了一些更环保的制作针状焦的方法，比如将煤液化变成煤焦油。如果你希望我制作关于这个话题的视频，请在评论区留言告诉我。

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