New Cybertruck Details, Highland Updates, China Records, EV Credits
发布时间 2024-01-04 00:39:23 来源
摘要
New Cybertruck details from early owners ➤ Jefferies increases TSLA price target ➤ Data confirms Q4 records in China ➤ BYD ...
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中英文字稿 
Hey everybody Rob Manward here and today we've got some new details on Cybertruck from initial owners. We've also got more insights on Q4 relating to China and Model 3 Highland. We've also got updates on EV tax credits and a few other items today as well. With lots of news to catch up on from over the weekend as well.
大家好，我是罗伯·曼沃德。今天，我们从初步车主那里获得了一些关于Cybertruck的新细节。我们还获得了有关第四季度中国市场和Model 3 Highland的更多见解。今天，我们还将更新电动车的税收抵免和其他一些事项。同时，周末还有很多新闻等着我们去了解。
Right, looking at the stock Tesla today, tougher day down 4% closing at $238.45. The Nasdaq today down 1.2%. Yesterday after the delivery report, Tesla was about flat on the day the Nasdaq was down pretty significantly. So far in these days Nasdaq down about 3% Tesla down about 4%. Relative over performance I would say, even though it is underperforming, relating to Tesla's beta. We've done okay, but I think largely with deliveries coming in a little bit above expectations, maybe production a little bit below, although we don't have analysts consensus for that. We're now seeing Tesla move with the markets over these couple of days.
是的，看看特斯拉（Tesla）的股票，今天是比较艰难的一天，下跌了4%，收盘价为238.45美元。纳斯达克（Nasdaq）今天下跌了1.2%。昨天交付报告出来后，特斯拉几乎持平，而纳斯达克则有相当大的下跌。到目前为止，在这些日子里，纳斯达克下跌了约3%，特斯拉下跌了约4%。我认为相对表现还可以，尽管表现较差，但与特斯拉的beta有关。我们做得还可以，但我认为这主要是因为交付量略高于预期，虽然我们没有关于生产的分析师共识。在过去的几天里，我们看到特斯拉与市场走势相同。
In terms of the general markets, the Fed meeting minutes did come out today. It looks like there were maybe a little bit more hawkish or less dovish than people would have expected relating to the possibility of rate cuts. If we just look quickly at the CME Group interest rate tracking expectation tool, the expectations from a week ago for a rate cut for either January or March have declined. You can see from 19% to 9% for January. And then for March, you can see the combination of these two have both declined. Here as continuing at the current rates have increased from 10% to 27%. Over the last week, just some changes there in terms of expectations that can relate to some of what we have seen in the markets.
就整体市场而言，美联储会议纪要今天发布了。看起来与市场预期相比，可能会更加鹰派或者不太鸽派，与降息可能性有关。如果我们快速看一下芝加哥商品交易所集团的利率预测工具，你会发现一个星期前对于1月或3月降息的预期已经下降了。你可以看到1月份的预期从19%下降到9%。而在3月，这两者的结合也都下降了。在过去的一个星期里，这些预期的变化反映了市场上所见到的一些情况。
Specifically for Tesla, we did have some analysts come out since the delivery report. We're not going to spend too much time on those, maybe most notably in terms of changes. Jeffries increased their price target on Tesla to $255 a share from 210 previously, but they do still reiterate a hold rating on the stock.
特斯拉方面，自发布交付报告以来，我们确实有一些分析师发表了意见。我们不打算花太多时间讨论这些意见，但最值得注意的是关于变动方面。杰富瑞将特斯拉的股票目标价格从之前的210美元上调至255美元，但他们仍然维持对该股票的持有评级。
Even quick correction to that I wanted to make as we talk about a few Q4 related items here at the beginning. The automotive news and Bloomberg had reported something about Tesla guiding towards 2.2 million vehicles in 2024. This was in a Bloomberg article that was posted by other platforms like automotive news. This is not accurate. Tesla is not given guidance. Bloomberg did appear to remove this from their article. It is still in some of these other articles that cross posted that though. If you did happen to see that, we don't have guidance from Tesla yet. That will come presumably on January 24th with the Q4 earnings report. So I just wanted to point that out quickly.
即使我们在这里讨论了几个与Q4相关的问题，但我还想快速进行修正。汽车新闻和彭博社报道了有关特斯拉在2024年朝着220万辆车的目标进行引导的消息。这是在一篇由彭博社发布并被汽车新闻等其他平台转载的文章中提到的。这是不准确的。特斯拉没有提供相关指导。彭博社似乎已经将其从他们的文章中删除。不过在一些其他的转载文章中还保留着这一信息。如果你确实看到了这些报道，我们目前还没有来自特斯拉的指导。预计在1月24日的Q4财报发布时会有指导。所以我只是想快速指出这一点。
Then as we head into a couple more items for Q4, we did get the last week of insured vehicle numbers for Tesla in China. This was $15,800 for this last week. Still a very solid week, well above average, a little bit lower than we had seen in the last couple of weeks prior to this final week. This put the total quarter these 13 weeks for Q4 at just over 172,000 vehicles insured for Tesla in China during the quarter. This was up 26% from Q3. So quarter over quarter jumped pretty significantly. Up 8% from the previous record for those 13 weeks in Q2. Up 22% from Q1. So really nice progress there in China and they rounded that quarter out pretty strong in these last final weeks as we can see.
然后，当我们进入第四季度的另外两项数据时，我们得到了中国特斯拉上周投保的车辆数量。上周有15800辆车投保。这依然是一个非常强劲的一周，远高于平均水平，略低于之前几周的水平。这使得第四季度这13周特斯拉在中国的投保车辆总数超过了172000辆。较第三季度增长了26%。季度间增长非常显著。比第二季度的13周最高纪录增长了8%。比第一季度增长了22%。所以在中国取得了非常好的进展，并且我们可以看到他们在这最后几周结束了这个季度。
We do also have wholesale sales figures. So this would be retail sales or domestic sales plus exports. We'll get those breakdowns as well as production a little bit later on. But those came in for December at 94,139 vehicles. This is I believe the second best month of wholesale sales figures for Tesla ever second to 100,000 back in November 2022. But you can see that was a significant inventory draw down there during that period. Of course, we'll see what it comes in for December. But I think this likely reflects relatively strong production here for the last month of the quarter. I believe this was a record for the quarterly wholesale sales figure as well and should point to pretty easily a record production quarter for Tesla in China as well. But again, we should get that information in the next couple of weeks or in the next week rather.
我们也有批发销售数据。所以这将包括零售销售或国内销售加出口。我们稍后还会得到这些分类细节以及生产情况。但是这些在12月份达到了94139辆车的销量。我相信这是特斯拉有史以来第二好的批发销售月份，仅次于2022年11月份的10万辆。但你可以看到在那段时间有一个显著的库存减少。当然，我们将看到12月份的情况。但我认为这很可能反映了季度最后一个月的相对强劲的生产。我相信这也是季度批发销售数据的纪录，也应该意味着特斯拉在中国将会有一个非常轻松地创下产量纪录的季度。不过，我们应该在接下来的几周或者下一周内得到这些信息。
Another headline relating to China that has made the rounds quite a bit over the last couple of days. BYD has now surpassed Tesla as the highest be V seller in the world.
最近几天，又有一条与中国有关的头条新闻引起了广泛关注。比亚迪现已超越特斯拉成为全球销量最高的电动车厂商。
So this was something that has been, you know, this gap has been closing for a long time. As we can see from the chart here from CNEV post reminder, this is just their battery electric vehicle sales. They do also have plug in hybrid electric vehicle sales. Those are separate from this. So this is just pure BV's. They have now surpassed Tesla on this quarterly figure mark for the year.
所以，你知道的，这个差距已经在很长一段时间内在缩小。从CNEV的贴文提醒中可以看到的图表显示，这只是他们的纯电动车销售情况，他们还有插电式混合动力汽车的销售。这些是与这个数据分开的。所以这只是纯粹的电动车销量。他们在今年的季度销售额中超过了特斯拉。
Tesla will still be up. We'll see how that changes the next year. But of course, if we look at revenue, Tesla is going to far exceed a BYD on the BV sales figures line due to the average selling price by ID, of course, playing in much lower market segments than Tesla. So congratulations to BYD for making that progress. But of course, a lot of headlines trying to diminish Tesla about that as well.
特斯拉仍将保持上升势头。我们将看到明年会有怎样的变化。但是当然，如果我们看的是收入，特斯拉的销售额将远远超过比亚迪，这是因为特斯拉的平均售价低于比亚迪，当然也是因为特斯拉在较低的市场细分领域有所作为。所以恭喜比亚迪取得这样的进展。当然，很多头条也试图贬低特斯拉的成就。
One other item relating to the Q4 report. I think many people were already aware of this as it happened on or was reported on Friday, but there was a ship that was carrying Tesla vehicles to Australia from China that had reports that there was a little bit of an infestation of bugs. So they had to reroute that back to China and get that all cleaned up. And then those vehicles presume we can return at some point. But that's potentially up to 6,500 vehicles. I don't think we know for sure how many were on the ship. That would be the capacity though that could have been non delivered that might have otherwise been there at the end of the year, which could have influenced the Q4 numbers, of course, not from a production standpoint, but from a delivery standpoint with that 485 ish 1000 report.
另外一个与第四季度报告有关的事项。我认为很多人在周五已经意识到或报道了这件事，那是一艘从中国运送特斯拉车辆到澳大利亚的船只，有报道称船上有一些虫子的问题。因此他们不得不将船返程送回中国，并对车辆进行清理。那些车辆预计将在某个时间点返回。但是这可能涉及到6500辆车，我们并不确定船上实际有多少辆车。然而，这是可能造成第四季度数额变化的原因之一，当然不是从生产的角度来说，而是从交付的角度考虑，这对于那个4.85百万辆交付报告可能有影响。
Now another thing that we talked about relating to the report was the possible impact of any updates to the Model 3 that may have happened in the fourth quarter. I think a lot of us expected that initially to happen in the first quarter at Fremont after of course the changeover to the Highland Model 3 in Shanghai. We are getting a little bit more reporting on this.
现在，我们谈到报告中的另一件事与第四季度可能对Model 3进行的任何更新可能产生的影响有关。我认为我们很多人最初都期望这种情况发生在第一季度，当然，在上海高地Model 3完成转变之后。我们对此获得了一些更多的报道。
So there's a few photos of Model 3 Highlands that have now been spotted in the US without the camouflage on. Of course we've seen them with camouflage many other times in the past, but lavishness think 6831 on Reddit here posting a couple photos of these Model 3s at Fremont apparently. You can see some China badging on the back of these. So it's not 100% clear that these would actually have been produced at Fremont. Same thing with another one that was spotted here also posted on Reddit covered by drive Tesla Canada, China badging on the back, but they did capture the vehicle identification number, which from the five YJ and the first three digits here, that tells us that this vehicle was actually produced at Fremont.
所以，在美国发现了几张没有伪装的Model 3高地版的照片。当然，我们以前也看过很多次它们带着伪装，但现在Reddit上的用户lavishness think 6831发布了几张在弗里蒙特拍摄到的Model 3的照片。你可以看到这些车后面有中国标识。所以并不完全清楚这些车是不是真的在弗里蒙特生产的。同样，在Reddit上另一位用户也发了一张照片，被Drive Tesla Canada报道，车后面也有中国标识，不过他们获取到了车辆识别号码，从这个号码的前五个YJ和前三个数字来看，这辆车实际上是在弗里蒙特生产的。
So a little bit confusing, but maybe Tesla just throwing those badges on there for, I don't know, to be confusing throughout people off a little bit or maybe some other reason. But nevertheless, it looks like these were produced in Fremont as indicated by the VIN. And as we can see the manufacturing date 120723. So December 7th very recently produced at Fremont. And maybe a little bit of a suggestion that Tesla has started to convert over some of their Model 3 production a little bit earlier. Obviously, as we talked about, that is something that could have influenced the production numbers for the fourth quarter.
所以有点让人感到困惑，但也许特斯拉只是为了困扰人们一下，或者可能有其他原因，才在那些车上贴上了这些标识。但不管怎样，从车辆识别号（VIN）来看，它们似乎是在Fremont生产的。而且我们可以看到制造日期是120723，也就是最近在Fremont生产的。这或许暗示特斯拉早早开始转型一些Model 3的生产。显然，正如我们所讨论的那样，这可能影响了第四季度的生产数量。
Now Tesla scope also saying that they can confirm that initial production of the performance variants of the updated Model 3 began in early December. Expectations for the official transition remain firm in Q1 pending any delays. So a little bit of a confirmation of what we're seeing here, potentially from Tesla scope. So again, we'll continue to keep close eye on that. But that is something that could have affected for sure production in the fourth quarter. And likely we'll affect production here from Fremont for the Model 3 in Q1 as well.
现在特斯拉范围（Tesla scope）也表示，他们可以确认更新版Model 3性能型的初期生产已于12月初开始。正式过渡的预期仍然坚定，在Q1期间有任何延迟的情况下。因此，这也从某种程度上确认了我们所看到的情况，可能来自特斯拉范围。因此，我们将继续密切关注此事。但这肯定会对第四季度的生产产生影响，并且很可能会影响弗里蒙特（Fremont）的Model 3在Q1期间的生产。
Now also relating to Model 3, we do have now Tesla's sort of official guidance on updates to the EV tax credit. As we expected, they have been removed for some versions of the Model 3. The only version of the Model 3 that retains the EV tax credit for 2024, at least at this point in time, is the performance version.
现在关于Model 3的消息，我们现在对特斯拉的电动汽车补贴更新也有了官方指导。正如我们预料的那样，有些Model 3的版本将不再享受补贴。目前来看，唯一一款在2024年仍享受电动汽车补贴的Model 3版本是性能版。
So this actually puts things in a little bit of a complicated spot for the Model 3 from a number of different perspectives for the Model Y. The all trims are retaining the full EV tax credit. So full $7,500. We weren't 100% certain that that would be the case or if that would get reduced at all.
所以从多个不同角度来看，这实际上让Model 3在Model Y的一些问题上变得有些复杂。所有的配置都能保留完整的电动车税款减免，也就是7500美元的减免。我们当时并不确定是否会这样，或者是否会有所减少。
And then for the Model X, the opening price point trim of the Model X, that is also retaining the credit, not as surprising on that front. So for the Model 3, I think I've got the Model Y page up here, but let's just switch that over quick.
然后对于Model X，以保持信贷额度的方式，Model X的起价也并不令人意外。因此，对于Model 3，我想我这里有Model Y的页面，但让我们快速切换一下。
We can see that this now sort of complicates the lineup a bit because you could potentially be receiving a performance Model 3 for a lower price than the long range Model 3 is available for. It also puts the opening price point for the Model Y, I believe below the opening price point for the Model 3, if you are able to get the tax credit.
我们可以看到，现在这有点让车型组合变得复杂了，因为你有可能以比长续航版Model 3的售价更低的价格获得一辆性能版Model 3。如果你能够获得税收减免，这还将使得Model Y的起售价低于Model 3的起售价。
Now doesn't mean it's the end of the world, doesn't mean that there's not going to be any demand for this. Remember, there are people that aren't going to qualify for various reasons, particularly from the income restriction. So there is still some sense to having this lineup be in this way.
现在并不意味着世界末日，也不意味着对此不会有任何需求。请记住，由于各种原因，特别是收入限制，有人将无法符合要求。因此，按照这种方式进行市场推广仍然是有意义的。
But I would imagine that there are changes that will happen with the refresh to Highland. That Tesla will probably take into consideration how the EV tax credit affects the lineup and the applicability of it across. So we'll see. I'm not worried too much about it at this point in time because we do have that pending update, but definitely something to keep an eye on.
但是我想象着，在对海兰高进行升级时会发生一些变化。特斯拉很可能会考虑到电动汽车税收抵免对车型和适用范围的影响。因此我们会拭目以待。目前我并不太担心这个问题，因为我们正在等待这个即将到来的更新，但这绝对是需要密切关注的事情。
The IRS has also posted the list of all the EVs that are eligible for the tax credit. So we are seeing again, a reiteration of what we see on Tesla site here for the Tesla vehicles, full $7,500 for all the Model Y and then for the one version of the Model 3 and the Model X, nothing for the Model S as that falls above the $5,500 cap as it did previously.
国家税务局还发布了所有符合税收抵免的电动汽车名单。因此，我们再次看到，特斯拉的官网上所显示的情况得到了重申，对于所有的Model Y以及Model 3和Model X的一个版本，可享受完整的7500美元的减税。而对于Model S，由于超过了5500美元的上限，将不再享受减税，就像之前一样。
The Caribbean, that credit has been reduced to $3,500 and then notably here, the Ford Mustang Mach-E completely removed at this point in time, though it does remain at least for some versions. I'm not sure if this is all versions, but I think all versions of the F-150 Lightning obviously below the $80,000 cap on that.
加勒比地区，该额度已减至3,500美元，而特别需要注意的是，福特野马Mach-E在此刻已完全移除，尽管对于某些版本仍然保留。我不确定这是否适用于所有版本，但我认为所有版本的F-150 Lightning显然低于8万美元的限制。
And then for GM, the Bolt is also retaining the $7,500 credit. I think the Cadillac Lyric right now is not eligible, but they are. GM is offering or saying that they will provide the $7,500 off the price for the EVs that became ineligible until they are able to make them eligible again. So GM basically for the time being just passing that on to customers through their own cost.
而对于通用汽车而言，雪佛兰Bolt车型目前仍然享受7500美元的减税优惠。我认为凯迪拉克Lyric车型目前不能享受这项优惠，但他们确实能享受。通用汽车表示将为那些不符合资格的电动车提供7500美元的减税优惠，直到它们重新符合资格为止。所以通用汽车目前基本上是通过自己的成本将这个优惠传递给消费者。
Now on the Ford F-150 Lightning, not specifically related to the EV tax credit, but they did increase prices today on this. Again, this does retain the credit, but the opening price point versions have been increased $5,000 to $10,000 for the pro on the XLT.
现在针对福特F-150闪电版（Ford F-150 Lightning），虽然与电动车辆税收减免没有特定关联，但它们今天提高了价格。再次强调，此举并不影响减免，但基础型的起价已经增加了5000至10000美元，针对XLT的专业版。
Some of the higher trim versions like the Platinum and the Platinum Black have actually had price reductions, but in terms of the average selling price, I would imagine that this ends up increasing it for the F-150 Lightning. Remember, there was a period where this rebounded a bit to having strong sales and then it seemed to fall off a little bit towards the end of the year, so it'll be interesting to keep an eye on this as we get new monthly data on that.
一些高配版本，像铂金版和铂金黑色版，实际上已经降价了，但就平均售价而言，我想这会增加F-150闪电版的售价。记住，有一段时间销售情况回暖且销量强劲，但到年底似乎有所下滑，因此随着我们获取新的月度数据，关注这一点会很有趣。
And also, of course, the Mustang Mach-E with the removal of the tax credit. That's going to make it extremely difficult to compete with obviously the Model Y, which was already a very challenging competition in the first place. So we'll keep an eye on those Mustang Mach-E sales as well.
而且，当然还有不再享受税收减免的野马Mach-E。这将使它与在第一位已经是一项非常具有挑战性的竞争对手——Model Y之间的竞争变得极其困难。因此，我们也将密切关注野马Mach-E的销售情况。
All right, a few other details, a few new details, rather on the Cybertruck from the Channel R Cyberlife, which we've talked about their delivery before. They give us some really nice data on the Cybertruck charge curve, so they took it to a V3 supercharger. Remember not V4 yet, so we'll have to wait and get more data on that in the future. That'll have a higher max charge speed.
好的，还有一些其他的细节，一些新的细节，关于我们之前提到过的来自R概念生活频道的Cybertruck。他们为我们提供了一些有关Cybertruck充电曲线的很好的数据，他们把它带到了V3超级充电桩。请记住，这还不是V4，所以我们将来需要等待并获得更多的数据。V4将具有更高的最大充电速度。
But for V3, they did a preconditioning test here. They preconditioned for 20 minutes and then charged from 14 up to 90% roughly. If we go over there. So notably, you can see for the charge speed, it did peak at 255 kilowatts. That's about the max that a V3 supercharger can put out.
对于V3车型，他们在这里进行了预条件测试。他们进行了20分钟的预条件操作，然后将电量从14%充电到约90%。如果我们去那里看一下，你会注意到充电速度的峰值达到了255千瓦。这大约是V3超级充电器能够输出的最大功率。
That peak rolled off at about 22% state of charge, and you can see how that changes across time or across percent state of charge here. And overall, it took them about 30 minutes to go from 14% state of charge.
这个峰值在电量达到约22%的情况下减弱，你可以在此处观察到其随时间或电量变化的情况。总体来说，从电量为14%开始，他们需要大约30分钟的时间。
Find that over here, where they began up to about, just make sense of this a little bit, up to about 70% in 30 minutes, and then up to about 80% in 40 minutes, as of course, your charge speed starts to taper off pretty significantly towards that point in time.
在这里找到，从他们开始到大约30分钟左右，对这个稍微理解一下，然后在约40分钟时达到大约80％，当然，你的充电速度在那个时间点开始显著减缓。
So overall, not too bad of a performance. Remember these are 4680 cells, the Model Y that had 4680 cells, the charge speed there was not quite up to the level of other Tesla vehicles. This is closer, but maybe still not quite there.
总的来说，表现还不错。请记住这些是4680电池，那个装有4680电池的Model Y，充电速度还不及其他特斯拉车型。这次更接近了，但可能还不太够。
Cyber truck owners club forum put together. I don't know what to use her, but put together a little bit of a comparison here for the state of charge versus the rate of charge versus state of charge for the cyber truck charging on, of course, the V3 400 volt chargers.
成立了一个Cyber Truck车主俱乐部论坛。我不知道该用什么词，但在这里对Cyber Truck电量状态、充电速度及电量状态进行了一个小小的比较，当然是在使用V3 400伏充电器给Cyber Truck充电时。
So you can see how that compares. It's relatively similar to what a model Y would look like across a state of charge. But what you would maybe hope for is because the cyber truck has a larger battery, maybe seeing a higher or a more extended peak, which would be something that if this were longer would be able to be more improved by the version four superchargers.
所以你可以看到它与Model Y的状况相比如何。从充电状态来看，它与Model Y相对相似。但或许你期望的是由于Cybertruck拥有更大的电池，可能会看到更高或更长的峰值，而这个如果是更长时间，则能够通过第四版超级充电桩来进一步改善。
Because of course, version four, we're going to see a benefit where this can maybe come up to 350 kilowatts here very early in the charge band. But once the taper starts, there really shouldn't be too much of a difference between a V3 supercharger and a V4 supercharger in the future.
当然，版本4的话，我们可能会看到一个好处，即初始充电阶段可以提高到350千瓦。但是一旦开始逐渐减少充电功率，未来V3和V4超级充电桩之间实际上不应该存在太大的区别。
Now that being said, again, this is an early cell for Tesla, although it is version two of the 4680s, you know, the quote unquote cyber cell, Tesla may still be playing these charge curves a little bit conservatively initially as they kind of gather and collect data with these cells out in the field.
话虽如此，这对于特斯拉来说仍然是早期的电池，尽管这是4680s的第二版，也就是所谓的“网络电池”。特斯拉可能在开始时会在充电曲线上保守一些，因为他们需要在实地收集这些电池的数据。
So certainly something that could change over time, something that would keep an eye on to see if it does, and we'll definitely be curious to see how it compares when we do get version four supercharger data, which again, hopefully we'll have that higher peak.
所以肯定有些东西可能会随着时间而变化，我们要密切关注并观察它是否会发生变化，当我们获得第四版超级充电桩的数据时，我们肯定会感到好奇看它与现在的版本相比有何不同，希望第四版会有更高的峰值。
Quick, a quick charging update, then we do have another thing on the cyber truck as well. But Tesla charging did reply to someone that was given some feedback on the V4 superchargers saying that minor things matter, cable dock and stiffness improvements will be coming soon.
快速的，一个快速的充电更新，然后我们在Cybertruck上还有另一件事。但是特斯拉充电回应了一位对V4超级充电器提供反馈的人，表示细小的事情很重要，电缆连接和坚硬度的改进即将推出。
So we haven't seen a whole lot of V4 superchargers deployed yet, probably for this exact reason. So this is probably implementing some, taking in some feedback, seeing how the real world use is, and then implementing some changes before they start to roll these out more broadly. I would imagine once they get comfortable with that, it will probably happen pretty quickly with lots of superchargers deployed.
因此，我们还没有看到大量V4超级充电器的部署，很可能是出于这个原因。所以这可能是在实施一些改变，收集一些反馈，并观察现实世界的使用情况，然后再开始广泛推出这些改变。我想一旦他们对此感到满意，很可能会迅速部署大量超级充电器。
Back to cyber truck, we also got a Monroni sticker. So this is the information sticker that is required to go in all vehicles, new vehicles that are sold. This was from UTEC Pia on YouTube. So from this, probably one of the most interesting points is the domestic content breakdown. So we can see 65% of parts in the cyber truck are US or Canadian parts, 25% in Mexico. So 90% in aggregate there would be in North America.
回到Cyber Truck，我们还得到了一张Monroni贴纸。所以这是一张必须贴在所有新售出车辆上的信息标签。这是来自YouTube上的UTEC Pia的视频。所以从这里，可能最有趣的一点是国内零件的分布情况。我们可以看到Cyber Truck中有65%的零件来自美国或加拿大，25%来自墨西哥。所以总体而言，有90%的零件来自北美地区。
If we just look at that 65% and compare that to, you know, the Ford F 150 or the Ford F 150 Lightning, which obviously sort of make a brand around, you know, being American, you know, built forward tough and things like that.
如果我们只看这65％然后将其与福特F150或福特F150 Lightning进行比较，显然这两款车型以美国制造、坚固耐用为品牌特色等方面做了营销。
Ford F 150 is 30% US and Canada content. The F 150 Lightning is 38%. So a little bit around half or a little bit less than half of what the US content here would be US or Canada content here would be for the cyber truck.
福特F-150占30%的美国和加拿大内容，而F-150 Lightning占38%。所以，美国或加拿大内容约占塞伯特卡车一半左右，或少于一半。
So as Lars had previously mentioned, this should be also a Tesla vehicle. Sorry about the sirens. Also a Tesla vehicle that falls very highly on the perhaps the top five of the most American vehicle index when we do see that again. So nice to have confirmation of that with the Monoroni sticker.
正如拉斯之前提到的，这应该也是一辆特斯拉汽车。很抱歉，关于警笛的问题。这也是一辆非常美国化的汽车，在我们再次看到它时，可能会排在最美国化汽车指数的前五名之中。所以，很高兴通过Monoroni贴纸的确认来证实这一点。
On the less nice side, there was a cyber truck crash. This was posted on Reddit by Bodhia. If we got there, right, but a cyber truck crash in California. It looks like this was a Tesla vehicle, likely with Tesla engineers driving. There was a crash report on this.
在不太好的一面，发生了一起网络卡车事故。这被Bodhia发布在Reddit上。如果我们没弄错，这是在加利福尼亚发生的一起网络卡车事故。看起来这是一辆特斯拉车辆，很可能由特斯拉的工程师驾驶。据称已有一份关于这起事故的报告。
So auto PN reported that the California highway patrol in a statement that they were able to see said that their investigation indicated that a Toyota Corolla, which was also involved in the crash. For some reason, turn to the right. Subsequently, struck a dirt embankment on the right shoulder.
所以“自动舆情”报道称，加利福尼亚高速公路巡逻队在一份声明中表示，他们能够看到他们的调查表明，一辆丰田科罗拉也参与了这起车祸。由于某种原因，它转向右侧，随后撞上了右边的土堤。
Toyota then re-entered the roadway crossed over the double yellow lines into the north pound lane and crashed into the Tesla cyber truck. So it looks like something we're probably not avoidable from the cyber truck and likely the fault of the Toyota driver. But you know, always sad to see a cyber truck out there in a crashed state.
然后丰田重新进入道路，越过双黄线进入北行车道，并撞上了特斯拉Cybertruck。所以看起来这是一种我们很可能无法避免的情况，很可能是丰田驾驶员的过失。但是，你知道的，看到一辆遭遇事故的Cybertruck总是令人感到悲伤。
It didn't sound like there were any major injuries. I think just a minor injury to the driver of the cyber truck. So good to see nothing, nothing too major resulting from that. All right.
听起来并没有什么重大伤情。我认为仅仅是Cyber Truck司机受了轻微伤。很高兴看到没有发生什么重大伤害。好了。
Last couple of things here. So we've got a report on FSD beta version 12.1 from Tony Tong on X. Sounds like this was a spouse of an employee that got to experience the vehicle from the employee fleet. So they said that they were really happy with the performance in terms of the car driving much more like a human.
最后还有几件事情。我们得到了一份关于FSD beta 12.1版本的报告，来自X的Tony Tong。听起来，这是一位员工的配偶有机会体验公司员工车队的车辆。所以他们表示，这款车在驾驶过程中更像人类，他们对其性能非常满意。
They specifically mentioned that for highway driving, there were scenarios where it just felt a lot more natural in terms of how it was approaching lane changes and being in the fast lane, exiting the fast lane and things like that. They mentioned four city streets. One of the difficult things that they had seen with older versions of FSD beta. FSD beta was the wide lanes and sometimes a little bit of maybe ping ponging or probably not ping ponging is that's a very specific move, but just a little bit less comfort or confidence in handling those wide lanes from previous versions of FSD beta. They said that that was really much really well improved in this version 12. They also said that the handling of bumps is excellent. I assume that that would mean speed bumps. They said that it reduces speed very smoothly to about 10 miles per hour while going across the bumps, making the ride super smooth.
他们专门提到，在高速公路行驶时，有一些情景让人觉得变道和行驶在快车道，从快车道驶出等等方面更加自然。他们提到了四个城市街道。关于旧版的FSD beta，他们看到的一个困难是宽车道的处理。旧版的FSD beta有时会出现一点点像乒乓球一样来回跳跃的情况，或许并不完全像乒乓球，因为那是一个很具体的动作，只是在处理宽车道时可能会稍微缺乏一点舒适感或信心。他们说，在这个第12版中，在处理宽车道方面得到了很大的改进。他们还说处理减速带非常出色。我想他们指的是减速带。他们说车辆能够平稳地将速度降低到每小时大约10英里，使乘坐变得非常平顺。
Tesla a long time ago, it actually had that implemented at one point and then it seemed to go away for whatever reason. But of course with this being relying on neural networks only makes sense that that would reappear as that would be a natural driving behavior. That Tesla would just presumably have implemented through the training process. So kind of nice to hear about some of those things. In terms of areas for improvement, no surprise, they said stop signs. This is a perpetual frustration as the car does seem to wait quite a long time at stop signs. It does on NHTSA in terms of enforcing that more restrictive than what human drivers would be legally required to do, but not expected to do certainly. So I think that's going to continue to be something that is a challenge. But overall, nice to hear some of these first impressions and hopefully we'll see more of these soon and see Tesla start to roll this out a little bit more broadly.
很久以前，特斯拉实际上曾经实现过这一点，然后似乎因为某种原因消失了。但当然，考虑到这是依赖神经网络的，重新出现也是自然的驾驶行为。特斯拉只能通过培训过程来实现这一点，这听起来很好。就改进的方面而言，毫不奇怪，他们提到了停止标志。这一直是一个持续的困扰，因为汽车似乎在停止标志处等待了相当长的时间。从NHTSA的角度来看，它在强制执行方面要比人类驾驶员的法律要求更严格，但肯定不是人们的期望。所以我认为这将继续是一个挑战。但总的来说，听到一些这些初步印象还是很好的，希望很快能看到更多这样的情况，并且看到特斯拉开始更广泛地推出这个功能。
Then we've also got an update from a member of the Tesla Optimus team, Milan Kovac on Twitter, just sharing some of his thoughts and kind of recapping the progress that Tesla has made on this for the year of 2023, saying they've improved their locomotion stack. They've built a very low latency and high fidelity teleoperation system, design trained and deployed some of the first end to end neural networks for humanoid robots to autonomously perform tasks. They've designed and built another upgraded version of the bot with Gen 2, adding an articulated neck revamped hands with tactile sensing and a tighter integration of harnesses and actuators and electronics. Just talking about how the team all made this possible and some of the unique structure of Tesla of the organization that we've talked about many times, but nice to see that highlighted. And then kind of closing by saying that when the time is right, our manufacturing lines will be added to that list. So a nice little exciting teaser there towards the end of this recap, but always nice to hear from the team on Optimus.
然后我们还收到了特斯拉Optimus团队成员米兰·科瓦克在Twitter上的更新，他分享了一些自己的想法，并对特斯拉在2023年取得的进展进行了回顾，称他们改进了自己的移动堆栈。他们建立了一个非常低延迟和高保真度的远程操作系统，设计、训练和部署了一些首批用于人形机器人自主执行任务的端到端神经网络。他们设计并建造了第二代升级版本的机器人，添加了一个带有触觉感知的可动颈部，重新设计的手部以及更紧密地融合了哈尼斯、执行器和电子设备。他提到了团队的努力使这一切成为可能，以及特斯拉组织结构的一些独特之处，我们已经多次提到过，但仍然很高兴看到这一点得到突出。最后他说，合适的时机到来时，我们的生产线也会加入到这个列表中。这是一个令人兴奋的消息片段，但总是很高兴听到Optimus团队的消息。
And then finally, a couple updates from Elon. This isn't related to that last post, but Elon is replying to a post here that was talking about the progress for Tesla stock throughout the year, of course, starting off from the very low point at the beginning of the year. But Elon commenting saying, I stand by my prediction that if Tesla executes extremely well over the next five years, that's a long term value you could exceed Apple and a Ramco combined. I haven't checked this recently, but that's somewhere in the ballpark of $5 trillion. So Elon still viewing that, that upside case as a possibility for Tesla as he has mentioned before.
然后最后，Elon还有一些更新。这与上一篇帖子无关，但Elon正在回复一篇帖子，该帖子讨论了特斯拉股票今年的进展情况，当然，从年初的最低点开始。但是Elon评论说，我依然坚信，如果特斯拉在接下来的五年中执行得非常出色，它的长期价值可能会超过苹果和沙特阿美公司的价值之和。我最近没有进行过核实，但大约在5万亿美元左右。所以Elon依然把这个上升的情况看作是特斯拉的一个可能性，就像他之前提到的那样。
And then finally, Elon did say that this was last Friday, that next week, so this current week, he would do a company talk for SpaceX, followed later by a company talk for Tesla after the 10k. So these will be really interesting to look forward to you for both of these companies. For Tesla specifically, this the 10k that is the annual filing that comes after the earnings report. So that should be out within a few days of January 24th. And then some point later on after that, we should have this company talk from Elon. So of course, we'll expect to hear from him on the earnings call as well, but it'll be interesting to see what they highlight on that company talk.
然后，最后，埃隆说，这是上个星期五。下周，也就是这周，他将为SpaceX进行一次公司演讲，之后是在10K报告之后为特斯拉进行一次公司演讲。所以我们可以期待这两家公司的演讲非常有意思。对于特斯拉而言，这个10K报告是在盈利报告之后的年度报告。所以它应该会在1月24日之后的几天内发布。之后的某个时间点，我们还将能听到埃隆的公司演讲。当然，我们也期待在盈利电话会议上听到他的发言，但值得注意的是，公司演讲将重点突出什么。
Alright, that'll wrap it up for today. So as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications.
好的，今天就到这吧。所以，和往常一样，谢谢你们的收听。确保你们已经订阅并开启了通知。
You can also find me on X at Tesla podcast. And we'll see you tomorrow for the Thursday, January 4th episode of Tesla daily. Thank you.
你还可以在特斯拉播客的X上找到我。明天我们会在1月4日（星期四）的特斯拉日报节目中与你见面。谢谢。