Markets Outlook 2024

Hello my friends and Merry Christmas.

大家好，朋友们，圣诞快乐。

There is no markets weekly this week but instead I thought we would have a markets outlook 2024 where I talk about where I think we are in the markets and in the economy and where we will be heading next year.

本周没有市场周报，但我想我们可以进行一次2024年市场展望，探讨我认为我们在市场和经济中的现状以及明年的发展方向。

Now to be perfectly clear I don't have a crystal ball. This is simply my best guess as to how themes will unfold in the coming months. Remember a lot of themes can happen between now and the end of next year. This is simply my best guess.

现在，为了明确起见，我没有水晶球。这只是我对未来几个月主题发展的最好猜测。请记住，在现在和明年年底之间可能会发生许多不同的主题。这只是我的最佳猜测而已。

Now before we begin let's see how I did last year. Okay so last year at the end of last year I recall there was tremendous doom and gloom in the commentary. So a lot of people were thinking that we were going to head into a recession and the markets were not happy. So I didn't think that would happen. So at that time when the S&P was trading at 30 or 15 I was thinking would be fine this year and up above 4100 and man did the market far far exceed my expectations. I'm not sure if many people expected the S&P to do as well as it did this year.

现在在我们开始之前，让我们看一下去年我预测的情况。去年年底，我记得评论中充满了巨大的悲观情绪。许多人认为我们会陷入衰退，市场也不乐观。然而，我当时并不认为会发生这种情况。当标普500指数在30或15点交易时，我认为今年将会好起来，并且可能会超过4100点，而事实证明市场远远超出了我的预期。我不确定有多少人预计到标普500指数今年会表现得这么好。

Secondly I was thinking that the 10-year yield would end the year above 4.5% and it looks like we're ending the year below 4%. So I got that one wrong. But to be fair though we did see the 10-year yield soar and touch 5% before retreating to where it is today and maybe maybe it will go back up next year. We'll see.

其次，我曾经认为10年期收益率将在年底超过4.5％，而现在看来，我们在年末低于4％。所以我错了。但公平地说，我们确实看到10年期收益率飙升并触及5％之后再回落到今天的水平，也许明年会再次上升。等着瞧吧。

The third thing that I was speculating on was the Euro USD exchange rate going below 1 and I there's no way around that got that really really wrong. At that time I was thinking that the Fed would basically out-hop all the other central banks and looking across the world I was seeing that the US economy was doing much better than everyone else and the US economy was much more interest rate insensitive. For example basically everyone in the US had a 30-year mortgage whereas many people outside of the US have floating rate mortgages. But to my surprise it looks like the Fed is going to out-dove everyone else in the world as we talked about last week. So this is just not going to turn out. And lastly I thought Goldwood end the year above 2000 and that did work out. So all in all 50% I'll take it.

我猜测的第三件事是欧元兑美元汇率会下跌到1以下，但这次我真的错了。当时我认为美联储基本上会超过其他中央银行，而从全球来看，美国经济比其他国家要好得多，而且美国经济对利率反应不敏感。例如，美国几乎所有人都有30年的抵押贷款，而其他国家的很多人有浮动利率的抵押贷款。但令我惊讶的是，正如我们上周讨论过的那样，看起来美联储将成为世界上最温和的中央银行。所以这个猜测是不准确的。最后，我认为黄金将在年底超过2000美元，而事实证明我是对的。总的来说，正确率达到了50%，我可以接受。

Okay now let's turn to where things are today. So I guess the big question on everyone's mind is are we hitting into a recession? So short answer is I don't think so. I don't see that at the moment.

好，现在让我们转向目前的情况。我想每个人都在想的一个重要问题是我们是否正在陷入经济衰退？简短回答是我不这么认为。目前我没有看到经济衰退的迹象。

Now at a high level a recession is basically what an economy produces fewer goods and services this year compared to the last. For example let's put it in car factory terms. You have a car factory that made a hundred cars last year but this year you're producing 99. You know you're producing fewer cars and if you were the entire economy you would be in a recession. Now when you put when an economy produces fewer goods and services it could be due to supply or it could be due to demand. For example you could have less demand for goods and services and thus fall into a recession or you could have supply constraints. Let's talk about each of those factors separately.

现在就经济衰退来说，基本上指的是本年度生产的商品和服务比去年少。举个例子，用汽车工厂的术语来描述。去年你的汽车工厂生产了一百辆车，但今年你只能生产九十九辆。你知道自己生产的车辆减少了，如果你代表整个经济，就处于衰退状态。现在我们来分别讨论供给和需求这两个因素。经济出现供给缩紧或是需求减少都可能导致商品和服务减少。举个例子，你可能会发现对商品和服务的需求减少而导致衰退，或者是供应受限。让我们分别来探讨每个因素。

First when I think about demand in an economy I just I think about money. So when people have money then they can spend their demand. So where do people get money? Well first they can get it through wages you know they have a job secondly they can get it through wealth asset appreciation or third they can borrow it. Now let's go through each of these sources of money and see where we are today.

当我思考经济中的需求时，我首先会考虑到金钱。所以当人们有了钱，他们就可以进行消费满足需求。那么人们从哪里得到金钱呢？首先，他们可以通过工资获得，也就是他们有一份工作；其次，他们可以通过财富资产赏值获得；或者，他们可以借钱。现在让我们分别来看看这些金钱来源，看看当下的情况如何。

Now when you're looking at the job market it looks really good actually looking at a chart of the unemployment rate or unemployment rate is that multi-decade lows and it looks like it's been there for some time. So and the mirror image of this of course is that wages continue to grow at a historically high rate. You have a very low unemployment rate suggesting strong demand for labor and so wages continue to rise. At the moment it looks like wages are rising at around 4% a year.

现在当你看着就业市场时，实际上它看起来非常好，看一下失业率或者失业率图表，我们可以看到它处于数十年来的低点，并且已经保持了一段时间。当然与此相反的是，工资继续以历史上较高的速度增长。低失业率意味着对劳动力的需求强劲，所以工资继续上涨。目前看来，工资每年大约增长4%。

Now as long as you have strong wage growth which we do and as long as jobs are plentiful like no one's losing their job which at the moment doesn't seem to be happening then people can continue to have income to spend right so that's demand. And as inflation declines that income is going to be able to have more purchasing power. So this income side looks fine.

现在只要你有强劲的工资增长，我们拥有这样的情况；只要就业机会充足，没有人失业，而目前似乎并没有出现这种情况；那么人们就能继续有收入可支配，这就是需求。随着通货膨胀的下降，这些收入将具有更大的购买力。因此，收入方面看起来很好。

Secondly, what about spending from assets? Well, if you look at a chart of household net worth in the US, assets minus liabilities, as of the end of the third quarter, it was around all-time highs. Between the end of the third quarter and now, we've seen the equity market go to the moon. So, I'm pretty sure that household net worth is at all-time highs right now. And if you take a step further, you also notice that from a demographic standpoint, a lot of that wealth is held by boomers. Boomers grew up in a world where they could buy a house for like ten dollars, and now that ten dollar house is worth like ten million. Something like that.

其次，关于从资产中支出的问题呢？嗯，如果你看一下美国家庭净资产的图表，即资产减去负债，截至第三季度末，它达到了历史最高水平。在第三季度末到现在这段时间里，我们看到股票市场一路飙升。所以，我敢肯定家庭净资产现在是创下了历史新高。而如果你再进一步观察，你还会发现从人口统计角度来看，很大一部分财富被婴儿潮一代掌握着。婴儿潮一代在一个可以用十美元买房子的时代成长起来，而现在那个十美元的房子可能价值已经达到一千万美元。就是这个意思。

And of course, they were buying stock when it was cheap and stocks have appreciated a lot. Now, boomers are retiring, and so they have a lot of wealth to spend. They're not working anymore, but they've accumulated a lot of wealth. Think of the boomer that bought a house in California or think of the boomer that you know, just started putting some money in this 401k, and they have a lot of wealth, but they can continue to spend. Now, to be perfectly clear, the distribution of this wealth is uneven, and we have a lot of people who don't have a lot of wealth, but you know, keep in mind 60% of the people in this country own a home. Home prices have gone up a lot. You have a lot of people who are involved in things like tech stocks and crypto, and that's all gone up a lot. So anyway, looking at an asset perspective, looking at net worth, it looks like people have a lot of wealth they can continue to spend to sustain consumption.

当然，现在他们在股票便宜的时候购买了股票，而股价已经大幅上涨了。如今，婴儿潮一代正在退休，所以他们有很多财富可以花费。他们不再工作，但他们已累积了很多财富。想想在加州买房的婴儿潮一代，或者想想你认识的婴儿潮一代，他们刚开始在401(k)计划中存了一些钱，他们有很多财富，但他们可以继续花费。现在，要非常清楚，这种财富的分布是不平衡的，我们有很多人没有很多财富，但要知道这个国家60%的人拥有自己的住房。房价已经大幅上涨。你有很多人投资科技股和加密货币，这些都涨得很多。所以总之，从资产的角度来看，从净资产来看，人们似乎有很多财富可以继续花费以维持消费。

Now, the third thing that I'm looking at is, of course, borrowing money. Now, you can think of this most obvious example would be the housing market, right? So now that the Fed appears to be at least interpreted to be very dovish and interest rates have come down a lot. In the coming weeks, I would expect to see mortgage rates with a 5% handle. Now, that's very likely going to ignite tremendous amounts of demand for housing. And of course, if you're wanting to buy a car, car loan rates will come down a lot. In fact, the most recently that we can see, housing starts are already surging, and if you look at homebuilder stocks, they are also surging as well. So again, as rates come down, more and more people are going to be able to borrow, willing to borrow because it's cheaper to sustain consumption. Now, this also ties in with high net worth. If you have a good net worth, a good balance sheet, and if you have a job, then people are more willing to lend you money. And if interest rates come lower, you're more willing to borrow. So again, looking at the demand side, there's a talent to tell the totality of this. It looks like demand is going to continue to be fine next year. And indeed, if you look at the trajectory of economic growth over the past year, it's been pretty good. Looking at the Atlanta Fed, now GDP now it passed for this quarter, it's taking up towards 3%. Now, we think of the economy's underlying potential growth rate as 2%, so we're growing above trend, above potential at the moment. It's a lot of momentum here, and it looks like it's going to be sustained throughout at least the foreseeable future. So from the demand side, I don't see any problems in sustaining the economy.

现在，我要关注的第三件事当然是借钱。最直观的例子就是房地产市场，对吧？现在美联储似乎至少被解读为非常温和，利率也大幅下降。在接下来的几周里，我预计抵押贷款利率将降至5%左右。这很可能会引发巨大的房屋需求。当然，如果你想购买汽车，汽车贷款利率也会大幅下降。实际上，最近我们可以看到，住房起工已经开始飙升，如果你看看房地产建筑商的股票，它们也在飙升。所以，随着利率下降，越来越多的人将能够借款，愿意借款，因为维持消费变得更便宜。这也与高净值有关。如果你有良好的净值和资产负债表，并且有工作，那么人们更愿意借钱给你。如果利率降低，你也更愿意借款。所以，再次从需求方面来看，总体来说，需求在明年似乎将继续保持良好。事实上，如果你看过去一年经济增长的轨迹，那是相当不错的。根据亚特兰大联邦储备银行的数据，现在GDP增长预估已接近3%。我们认为经济的潜在增长率为2%，所以目前我们的增长高于潜在水平。现在有很多势头，看起来至少在可预见的未来会持续下去。所以从需求方面来看，我并不认为维持经济会有任何问题。

Now, what about the supply side? What if we have more supply constraints that make it so that, let's say, going back to the car example, you can't get chips and so you can't produce as many goods and services as you want? So broadly speaking, over the past few years since COVID, we've seen supply chains improve. Now, improvement has been uneven, but it seems like it's getting better. Now, more importantly, though, when I look across the world, it looks like in the Eurozone, they're heading towards a recession. In China, the economy is not doing well. So globally speaking, outside the US, things are slowing down. Now, globally, we all use the same supply chains. So for example, let's think about things like commodities, right? It's a global market. Now, if we have slower demand outside of the US, that frees up supply capacity to serve the US market, and so it doesn't seem to me that supply is going to be constrained as well. So you put this together and you get a picture of the US economy that's doing fine, and to me, I don't see any signs about falling into a recession. So that's one thing.

现在，供应方面怎么样呢？如果我们有更多的供应约束，比如说回到汽车的例子，你找不到芯片，所以你不能生产想要的那么多商品和服务怎么办？所以总体来说，自从COVID以来的几年里，我们看到供应链有所改善。不过，改善并不均衡，但似乎正在变好。更重要的是，当我看着世界各地的情况时，欧元区似乎正在走向衰退。中国经济也不好。所以从全球来看，除了美国以外，情况正在放缓。而全球的供应链是共同使用的。比如说，让我们想一想像大宗商品这样的东西，那是全球市场。现在，如果我们在美国以外的地方需求减缓，那就会释放出供应能力来服务美国市场，所以我认为供应也不会受到限制。综上所述，我们得到了一个美国经济状况良好的图景，对我来说，我看不到陷入衰退的迹象。这就是其中一点。

Now, now that establishing that's how I think about things going forward, where does that leave markets? So overall, I have a very, very positive risk for markets going forward, and I've written about that a couple of weeks ago. So at a high level, what I think is happening is that we are in a quote-unquote crack-up boom.

现在，既然我已经确定了未来的思考方式，那么市场会如何呢？总体而言，我对市场未来有非常非常积极的风险预测，而且我在几周前已经写过相关文章。从一个更高的层面来看，我认为我们正在经历所谓的崩溃繁荣期。

Now, crack-up boom is typically speaking when you have, I guess you could say, the debasement of the monetary system. It could be through excessive credit growth, for example, like that decreases the value of the currency, and so asset prices inflate. Now, that's one way to look at that, but it doesn't actually have to happen necessarily through excessive growth in big loans. I think it could also happen through excessive deficit spending.

现在，破产崩溃繁荣通常是指货币系统贬值。这可能是通过过度的信贷增长，导致货币价值下降并推高资产价格。这是其中一种看法，但并不一定要通过大型贷款的过度增长来实现。我认为，也可以通过过度的赤字支出来实现。

Because in the modern monetary system when you are deficit spending you are basically printing US treasuries and treasuries are very much a money-like asset. So when the US government is let's say conducting a lot of deficit spending I think of it as them buying goods and services and paying for it by printing treasury securities. Now again a US strategy security I can't use it and go pay for dinner at Denny's but if you give it to me it's an asset that I can monetize I have more purchasing power my net worth goes up.

因为在现代货币体系中，当你进行赤字支出时，基本上就是在印刷美国国债，而国债是一种非常类似货币的资产。所以当美国政府进行大量赤字支出时，我认为他们是通过印刷国债来购买商品和服务并支付。再说一遍，一张美国国债我不能拿去在丹尼餐厅付账，但如果你把它给我，它就成为我可以变现的资产，我有了更多的购买力，我的净资产也会增加。

So the creation of US treasury securities the printing of those things is basically a form of helicopter money and we've been doing that to a surprising extent. So we have an economy that did well this past year and deficit is about 7% and if you look at forecasts it looks like it's going to continue to increase going forward. I think that's just where we are as a country as a politics or politics in our culture are. When I look around what I see is that people like to have free stuff and the politicians like to give free stuff so that's how they get elected. So you have person invited and again forgiving student loans and now there's they seem to be wanting to give money to be booked to buy homes and so forth. So that's I think that's a very strong trend going forward.

因此，美国国债的发行和印刷其实是一种直升机货币的形式，我们一直在以出人意料的程度上进行这样的操作。所以，我们的经济在过去一年表现良好，但赤字约占7％，如果看一下预测，看起来这个比例还将继续增加。我认为这只是我们国家的现状，政治或文化上都是如此。当我环顾四周，我所看到的是人们喜欢得到免费的东西，政客们也喜欢提供免费的东西，这是他们当选的方式。所以，你看有人提倡宽恕学生贷款，现在他们似乎又希望给予购房的补助等等。我认为这是未来一个非常强劲的趋势。

So the deficit is going to continue to increase so you can think of it as helicopter money continuing to increase and that's really really bullish for financial assets right. You are in a sense you are printing money. Now usually again in a system you have you have shicks and balances. Now for when the government goes and does something like this you usually have two checks to keep it from doing this. One of course is the quote-unquote independent central bank that could raise interest rates and push back against inflationary spending and the second of course is market-based checks where the bond market becomes unhappy and so that arouse is public concern.

所以赤字将继续增加，你可以将其视为直升机货币的不断增加，这对金融资产非常非常有利。从某种意义上说，你是在创造货币。通常在一个系统中，你会有一些制衡机制。但当政府采取这样的行动时，通常有两个制衡机制来防止其这么做。一个当然是所谓的独立央行，可以通过提高利率来反对通胀性支出，第二当然是市场的制衡机制，即债券市场变得不满意，从而引发公众关注。

Now so far we have these two things occurring and pushing back against the deficit spending over the past year. So we had the Fed of course Hacking rates of five and a half percent and we saw the 10 year treasury yield touch five percent. Now the Fed seems to be doing a 180 and heading towards rate cuts and the bond market seems to be convinced that everything is going to go back the way that it used to be and so we have the 10 year yield heading below 4 percent. So these two forces that I would think of as working against the inflationary impacts of deficit spending are going to sleep and so you can I can see this as removing hurdles for the S&P to continue to soar maybe 2s high as 6,000 next year. Again I have no idea exactly what it will be but I think there is extreme upside risk in this scenario.

目前为止，我们已经看到两个因素对去年的赤字支出产生抵制作用。首先，美联储当然降息了5.5%，其次，我们看到10年期国债收益率触及5%。现在，美联储似乎执行了180度的大转向，且有意降息，而债券市场似乎相信一切都将回归到过去的样子，因此我们有10年期收益率跌破4%。因此，我认为这两股力量作为对抗赤字支出通胀影响的作用将逐渐减弱，这可以被视为标准普尔指数继续飙升的障碍消除，甚至可能在明年达到6000点的高位。再次强调，我不确定具体的情况，但我认为在这种情况下存在极高的上行风险。

Now one of the things that we've noticed over the past 10 years is that when you run loose monetary policy you don't necessarily get let's say inflation and goods and services after all that's dependent upon things like you know what the money is spent on, who has the money and just the supply aspect are you able to produce enough oil and so forth but we did what we did notice over the past 10 years is that it was very inflationary for financial assets. I think the reason this is is that in our society the income and wealth structure is very unequal. So at the end of the day when money gets poured into the economy it goes, it funnels through but ultimately it ends up in the hands of very few people or if you very wealthy people and what do wealthy people do with their money they go and they buy assets. So I suspect that deficit spending is going to have a similar impact where the money they inject into the system is ultimately going to funnel into the hands of a few people who go and buy assets like the S&P 500.

在过去的10年中，我们注意到的一件事是，当你实施宽松的货币政策时，并不一定会出现通货膨胀和商品和服务的增加，这还取决于资金的使用方式、谁拥有资金以及供应方面，比如能否生产足够的石油等。但我们在过去的10年中确实注意到，宽松的货币政策对金融资产造成了很大的通胀压力。我认为这是因为在我们的社会中，收入和财富结构非常不平等。因此，当资金被注入经济中时，它会流动过程中最终集中在极少数人手中，或者说非常富有的人手中，而富有的人会用他们的资金来购买资产。因此，我怀疑赤字支出也会产生类似的影响，他们注入系统的资金最终会流向少数人的手中，而这些人会购买像标普500这样的资产。

So that's my outlook for the S&P, for the stock market. Now I have been a noted bond bearer for the past two years and I continue to be. So the way that I look at this of course as we all know is just supply and demand if you have the supply of security securities to be basically you know, incidents with no end in sight. There's never any talk of how to get the deficit under control and that's not going to be good for the price of surgeries and that is to say a yield to going to go higher.

这是我对标普500指数和股市的展望。过去两年里，我一直看好债券市场，而且这种看法仍然持续存在。所以，正如我们所知道的，我从供需的角度来看待这个问题。如果有大量证券供应，基本上就是一个无穷尽的事件，没有任何关于如何控制财政赤字的讨论，那对于股票价格来说并不利，也就是说收益率将会上升。

We had this pretty dovish term from the Fed that's been I think prompting a countership rally so forth and at the same time I think we have basically two generations of investors who grew up in a bondable market and continue to think that the future will affect the past and that will go back to where we were before. So I firmly believe that the future will not look like the past.

我们从联邦储备局得到了比较温和的表态，我认为这推动了一系列反向行情，同时，我认为我们基本上有两代投资者在债券市场中成长，并且持续认为未来将影响过去，我们会回到之前的状态。所以我坚信未来不会和过去一样。

So on the one hand of course we have this tremendous amounts of fiscal spending that will be inflationary but on the other hand on the other side we also have this structural decline in the labor market. This is just demographics right so in the 1980s people decided to have smaller families and so our workforce population today is simply not growing at the same rate that it used to. And so as a result there is a labor shortage. We can see this everywhere right we see this in high wages and we see this in the power of unions.

一方面，当然我们有庞大的财政支出，将会引发通胀，但另一方面，劳动力市场也面临结构性下滑。这只是人口统计学的问题，因为在20世纪80年代，人们决定生育较少的孩子，导致如今劳动力人口的增长速度不再像过去那样。因此，出现了劳动力短缺的现象。我们可以在各个方面看到这一点，比如高薪和工会的力量。

Now that's that's something that's structural and that's going to continue as boomers retire and they are not fully replaced by the new generation. So again that that's pretty inflationary as well. And you have these geopolitical things that people talk about I think that they are just valid validity there but it's just not it's kind of vague to talk about so I can't put too much weight on that but the demographic aspect though that's very clear and that's already happening.

现在，随着婴儿潮一代退休并且新一代无法完全填补空缺，这种结构性变化将会继续发生。因此，从通胀的角度来看，这将相当有影响力。虽然人们谈论的地缘政治问题有一定的合理性，但它们往往含糊不清，因此我不会过多强调这一点。不过，人口的变化趋势却非常清晰，已经在发生。

So again the rapid fiscal spending and this demographic change I think is going to make inflation and thus interest rates secularly trend higher in the coming years. Now eventually I think this is going to be more widely understood. So I still expect a 10 year yield next year to continue the trend higher. I mean as people watch this in Peace or as people watch inflation perhaps stabilize between let's say three and four percent I can see the 10 year again rising above five percent.

再一次快速的财政支出以及人口结构变化，我认为这将导致通货膨胀，进而使利率在未来几年里长期趋势上升。最终，我认为这将被更广泛地认识到。所以，我仍然预计明年的10年期收益率将继续上升的趋势。我是说，随着人们观察这一情况或者通货膨胀在三到四个百分点之间稳定，我可以看到10年期收益率再次上升至5%以上。

Again I've been saying this for some time but for me it's really hard to imagine a world where interest rates don't trend higher. Actually if you ask anyone let's say a hundred years ago from the US or anyone today who is let's say from Brazil or some kind of middle-income country and just point to these you know fiscal policy point to monetary policy and so forth and they could all tell you immediately that you know interest rates are going to go higher and because that's inflationary. I don't think that US investors have that sense yet but I think they will get there.

我已经说了很长时间了，但对我来说真的很难想象利率不会上升的世界。实际上，如果你问任何一个来自美国的人，比如一百年前的人，或者是来自巴西或一些中等收入国家的今天的人，只要指出这些财政政策，货币政策等等，他们都可以立刻告诉你，利率将会上升，因为那会导致通货膨胀。我不认为美国投资者现在有这种感觉，但我认为他们会意识到这一点的。

Okay so this year I don't have any view on the dollar. Again the dollar is going to be depend upon the decisions of the Fed and the other central banks and I'm getting the sense as we as we go forward as you go into an election cycle throughout the world there's going to be some more politics involved and I don't have enough insight or I don't have any view on that and okay the last thing I'll talk about is gold.

好的，所以今年我对美元没有什么看法。再说一遍，美元将取决于美联储和其他央行的决策，随着我们进入全球选举周期，我感觉到政治因素会越来越多，对此我没有足够的了解或者没有任何观点。好的，最后我要谈一谈黄金。

So gold of course has been well sustained and also it's been I guess being accumulated by central banks. Now gold people often talk about as a reflection of things like inflation or real interest rates and so forth so everyone views gold differently. So I think of gold as basically a combination of all those things but at the end of the day it's kind of a hedge against the monetary system. Now I've talked about how the US doesn't seem to be well managed but it's the kind of the same thing everywhere in the world and as this mismanagement continues I think there's going to be more and more interest in gold and on top of that of course we could also have the potential for geopolitical flare-ups.

黄金在历史上一直保持良好的支撑，而且央行也一直在积累黄金。人们常常谈及黄金与通胀、实际利率等因素的关系，不同人对黄金的观点不尽相同。我认为黄金基本上是所有这些因素的综合体，但最终它是对货币体系的一种避险。我之前提到过美国似乎管理不善，但这在世界各地都存在，随着这种管理不善的持续，我认为对黄金的兴趣会越来越多。此外，当然还存在地缘政治紧张局势的潜在可能。

So rather than talk about things like currency relative currency strength it seems like people are probably going to just buy some more gold as a hedge of what we're seeing in the sovereign space. So I think gold continues to trend higher I think we can go up let's say so we're 2000 today and go up another 20% 2400 for next year.

所以，与其谈论像货币相对强度这样的事情，似乎人们更有可能购买一些更多的黄金，作为我们在主权领域所见到的一种避险手段。所以我认为黄金继续上涨的趋势将会持续，我认为我们可以上涨20%，明年达到2400。

Alright so those are my three views for the next year. Massive bull market inequities, bond market sells off and of course gold bull market continues. Let's see how I did next year.

好的，那么这就是我对明年的三个观点。首先是股票市场的大牛市，其次是债券市场的抛售，当然还有黄金市场的牛市持续。让我们拭目以待，看看明年我的预测是否准确。

Alright guys if I don't see you before then happy new year and thanks so much for watching this channel and supporting my work I really appreciate it. Talk to you guys soon.

好各位，如果在那之前我没能见到你们，祝你们新年快乐，并非常感谢你们关注这个频道和支持我的工作，我真的非常感激。很快就会再和你们交流。