Carl Icahn Speaks About Inflation, Jerome Powell, And More At The Forbes Iconoclast Summit - YouTube

Now for a closing keynote conversation, an activist icons view on markets and the future. Please welcome Carl Icahn, chairman icon enterprises and interviewer Steven Bertoni, assistant managing editor, founders Forbes.

现在是闭幕演讲和讨论环节，一个活跃的权威人士对市场和未来的观点。请欢迎卡尔·伊坎，资深人士协会主席，以及采访者史蒂文·贝托尼，福布斯创始人杂志的助理主编。

Alright. Hey everybody. Hey Carl. How you doing? You see me there? Yeah, you look like the Wizard of Oz right now, like the big floating head in front of everybody. So you look good. Yeah. They call me the Wizard of Oz anyway.

好的。嘿，大家好。嘿，卡尔。你好吗？你看见我了吗？是的，你现在像奥兹大师一样，就像大家面前的一个巨大的浮动头像。所以你看起来不错。是的。他们总是称呼我为奥兹大师。

Yeah. Yeah. Well thanks for joining us. We have a great room. And so what's on your mind? Let's hear about the title is what does Carl Icahn think of the markets? And let's kick off with that right now.

是的。是的。好，感谢你加入我们。我们有一个很棒的空间。那么你有什么想法？让我们听听卡尔·伊坎对市场的看法？现在就开始谈一谈这个问题。

Yeah. I think we have a real problem with the markets. I've been saying that, Steve. I've been saying that for about a couple of years now, you know, in articles or whatever. I keep things pretty well hedged, but I have a very big hedge on now. I think we have a major problem and I can go into it more if you want me to.

是的，我认为市场存在一个真正的问题。我一直在这么说，史蒂夫。我在文章或其他地方已经说了几年了，你知道的。我通常都会进行有效的对冲操作，但我现在有一个非常大的对冲。我认为我们面临一个重大问题，如果你愿意，我可以详细解释一下。

Yeah. Why we do it? Yeah, please. Of course. Give me a few bullets on like what the specifics are that really, you know, get. I mean, look, to begin with, we're trapped with this inflation. Inflation is a terrible thing. It's what brings down in Japanese. And you look at things simplistically. Look at it just very simplistically. That's where if you can do that and sort of understand the markets that way, you should be successful over a long period of time. And right now, they're real problems because inflation is a terrible thing. And once you have it, it's almost like being a drug dependent, you know, and it's very hard to get rid of it once in stock. I mean, I remember the 70s, but it takes out countries. It takes out of Japanese. And I think how is very right to do anything you can to stop this inflation that's coming on. And the real surprising thing is that you haven't had it before because for the last years, we've just printed up money and just giving it out.

是的，为什么我们这么做？是的，请。当然。给我一些关于具体情况的要点，那些真正影响事态发展的。我是说，首先，我们受困于通胀问题。通胀是一件可怕的事情。它导致了日本的经济下滑。你简单地看看问题。就是这么简单地看。如果你能这么做并以这种方式理解市场，你应该能够在长期内取得成功。现在存在真正的问题，因为通胀是一件可怕的事情。一旦出现了通胀，就像是成为了一个依赖药物的人一样，很难摆脱。我记得70年代，它能摧毁国家，摧毁日本。我认为，无论如何，你都应该尽一切可能来阻止即将到来的通胀。真正令人惊讶的是，以前你们还没有遇到过这个问题，因为在过去的几年里，我们只是不停地印钞票并发放出去。

And what are the major problems is, I think, and nobody's blamed them, but it's corporate America. It's the CEOs, rubber stamp boards. And the money has been very cheap. So they've been able to borrow money very cheaply. But instead of putting back into production, they've taken that money, borrowed more and more, and bought stocks at very high valuations. And now it's time to pay the price of that. So you'll have more and more debt coming due or interest rates to pay at a higher price. And that is a problem as far as earnings are concerned.

我认为主要的问题是，没有人责怪他们，但问题出在美国的企业界。是首席执行官们，橡皮图章般的董事会。而且钱非常便宜。所以他们能够非常便宜地借钱。但他们没有将这笔钱投回到生产中，他们借了越来越多的钱，以非常高的估值购买股票。现在是付出代价的时候了。所以你将会有越来越多的债务到期或以更高的价格支付利率。这会对收益产生问题。

And aside from that, household net worth, I would say median household net worth is really non-existent. In this country. So half the households have no net worth. And the other half, except for the very top 10%, I think are very concerned about what's happening. And they're looking at their net worth, which is the market and their homes. And you have to be very concerned about that.

此外，家庭净资产方面，我可以说，中位数家庭净资产几乎不存在于这个国家。因此，一半的家庭没有净资产。而另外一半，除了最顶层的10%之外，我认为他们非常关注正在发生的事情。他们正在关注着自己的净资产，包括市场和房产价值。你必须对此非常担心。

Carl, eventually. In this kind of high inflation environment, you've been through many decades, ups and downs. How does this environment affect what you do and how you play the game right now?

卡尔，最终你在这种高通胀的环境中度过了几十年的风风雨雨。这种环境对你目前的行动和游戏方式有什么影响？

Well, we're very hedged. And as far as I'm concerned, you know, short the S&P and short different companies. And what I look for are companies that have some hidden jewel. And that's served our purposes. We find a company with hidden jewels and either not well managed or the boards are rubber stamped too much debt or whatever. And we get it on those boards. And eventually, you know, sometimes you have to replace the CEO. And a lot of these companies are doing well. So you take CVI, our refinery. Our refinery, we took years, but it's now actually functioning greatly because we have spent quite a bit of capital in it over the years.

嗯，我们的风险已经得到很好的对冲了。就我而言，我们在做 S&P 指数空头以及做空其他公司。而我寻找的是那些拥有一些隐藏价值的公司。这符合我们的目标。我们找到那些拥有隐藏价值的公司，但管理不善，或者董事会过多地批准了债务等等。然后我们进入了这些董事会。有时候，我们甚至需要更换首席执行官。很多这些公司现在表现得很好。比如，我们有个炼油厂叫做 CVI。我们花了好几年时间，但现在它的运作已经非常出色了，因为我们在过去的几年里投入了相当多的资本进去。

You know, we have to save it for going back up. The government and their great wisdom with ESG made refineries better. And very difficult, very difficult to make a profit. So a large number of small refineries went out of business.

你知道的，我们必须留着它以备后用。政府及其在环境、社会和治理方面的伟大智慧使得精炼厂变得更好。然而，这也让利润变得十分困难，非常困难。因此，大量的小型精炼厂倒闭了。

And I will go to details, but they penalize refineries. And they tell them, you know, they don't want them. So unlike almost in any other industry where if you're doing well, you build more, if you do it well in the widget business, you build more widget factories. You can't build another refinery. You take CVI, for instance. You know, do we find refineries we have to replace would be, you know, ten, twelve billion dollars, I believe. I just, you can't put a number on it because you really can't build another one in this country. So you can't have that competitive element coming in. A lot of refineries went out of business. And so a lot of the large refineries for the big companies listed to the government telling you how terrible refineries were and stopped. Stop building them up.

我会提供详细的细节，但是他们对炼油厂进行了处罚。他们告诉炼油厂，他们不想要它们。所以与其他任何行业不同，如果你做得好，你会建造更多厂房，如果你在小玩意儿生意中做得好，你会建造更多小玩意儿工厂。但是你不能再建造另一个炼油厂。以CVI为例，你知道，我们必须更换的炼油厂可能需要100亿到120亿美元的资金，我相信。我不能给出一个确切的数字，因为你实际上不能再在这个国家建造新的炼油厂。所以你无法引入竞争因素。很多炼油厂倒闭了。所以很多大型炼油厂为了迎合政府的指示，声称炼油厂是多么糟糕，停止了扩建。

So today, what they call the crack spread has widened tremendously. The diesel crack, for instance, has gone up as high as seventy five or eighty dollars. And that just means it used to be, you know, twenty, twenty five dollars. So obviously, our even as for the three quarters has gone up to eight hundred million dollars, I believe, or close to a billion dollars.

今天，所谓的裂缝利差扩大得相当大。例如，柴油裂缝一度上涨至七十五或八十美元。这意味着它过去只有二十、二十五美元。所以显然我们的三个季度成本甚至达到了八亿美元左右，我相信，或接近十亿美元。

But then you can't really come in and say, well, these refineries, you know, you should pay more taxes or something because in the bad times, I must have put three, four hundred million dollars in to save that refinery or that to refineries. When a lot of refineries went out of business.

但是你不能简单地说，这些炼油厂应该支付更多的税款之类的，因为在困难时期，我已经投入了三四亿美元来拯救那个炼油厂或那些炼油厂。当很多炼油厂倒闭时。

So now you're backed into an energy problem for gasoline and diesel. And diesel is very important today. Diesel now is used in Europe to generate electricity, which will stop eventually. And from the point of view, ESG, you have something called bunker fuel that is really, really polluting the water as we speak. So diesel is used to replace that terrible fuel they used.

现在你陷入了汽油和柴油的能源问题。而柴油在今天非常重要。柴油目前在欧洲用于发电，但这种用途将最终停止。此外，从环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）的角度看，我们现在有一种被称为燃油的东西正在严重污染水源。因此，柴油被用来替代这种糟糕的燃料。

And then our refinery, Winnie Wood and coffee, the little refiner, we're able to produce fertilizer or help to produce fertilizer. So we don't need with fertilizer, you need ammonia, you need gas to make the ammonia, you know, in a street. You need natural gas except we're the only one in the country. And people don't understand this that built this many years ago. We had the foresight to build it. I can't take credit for it, but it's there.

然后我们的炼油厂，维尼伍德和咖啡，这个小的精炼厂，能够生产化肥或者帮助生产化肥。因此我们不需要化肥，你需要氨，你需要气体来制造氨，你知道，在一条街上。我们需要天然气，除了我们国家没有其他人有。人们不理解我们多年前建造这个的时候的洞察力。我不能为之自豪，但它确实存在。

And we were able to make it with the company called Pete coat, that coat. And so we don't need the natural gas to make the fertilizer. And we ended up owning a fertilizer plant, which is the factory is right next to our refinery. And it's really fascinating. And nobody even wanted that seven, eight years ago, but we nourished it, we kept it going. We owned 36% of it and we own the control of it. And obviously today, fertilizer is the most necessary thing in the world if you think about it, especially if the Ukraine keeps going and they shuttle off these things. And we are the only one in the country that can make it without natural gas.

我们能够与叫做Pete coat的公司合作，生产那种大衣。因此，我们不再需要天然气来制造肥料。最终，我们拥有了一座肥料厂，该工厂就在我们的炼油厂旁边。这真是令人着迷。而且，在七、八年前，没有人对此感兴趣，但我们一直保持着发展它的动力。我们拥有36%的股份，并控制着它。如果你考虑一下，如今肥料是世界上最必要的东西，尤其是乌克兰情况继续下去，他们将大量出口这些东西。而我们是全国唯一一家可以在不使用天然气的情况下生产肥料的公司。

So we have all these little jewels at CVI. I'm just using one example of what we look for. And they're coming to fruition.

所以我们在CVI有很多这样的小宝贝。我只是以一个例子来说明我们寻找的东西。而且它们正在逐渐实现。

And also speaking of fighting those gems, you just made a play. You bought a big stake of crown holdings. You just bought a big stake of aluminum can company today. Tell me behind like really quick summary, what made you do that move?

而且说到与那些宝石斗争，你刚做了一手。你刚刚购买了皇冠控股的大股份，今天你刚刚购买了一家铝罐公司的大股份。告诉我背后的原因，简单概括一下，是什么促使你做出这一举动？

Well, there too, you look for a couple of hidden jewels. I mean, it's in an industry that has natural growth because it's in an industry where you're getting rid of slowly, but surely getting rid of plastic containers. So because of the environment again.

嗯，在这里你也在寻找一些隐藏的宝藏。我的意思是，在一个具有自然增长的行业中，因为它是一个逐渐但确定地减少塑料容器的行业。再次强调，这是出于环境考虑。

And for some reason, the earnings of this company have not come to fruition. The earnings are down. Well, you know, a lot of companies are down, but I think one of the problems that corporations do, and there are many good CEOs and many good boards, but a lot of the problems are that they try to diversify. When they try to say, I'm going to take over a company because I'm, you know, I got this company and you're going to get synergies. And I think that the city is very hard to get. If you look back in history, Jack Welch was good enough to get synergies and GE, but then look what happened. So they went out and bought different companies. We think they should just get rid of it and stick to the canned business.

因为某种原因，这家公司的收益没有实现。收益下降了。嗯，你知道，很多公司都陷入困境，但我认为公司遇到的问题之一是它们试图实现多元化。当他们试图说，“我要接管这家公司，因为我有这家公司，你将获得协同效应。”我认为协同效应很难实现。如果你回顾历史，杰克·韦尔奇足够好地实现了GE公司的协同效应，但结果如何呢？所以他们出去收购了不同的公司。我们认为他们应该放弃这些，并专注于罐头业务。

I think there's a lot of things that you can do in that company. There's not, I mean, they're not badly run, but I think that many of this, but this whole business of diversity, this is diversifying as hurt their earnings, hurt their multiple, and eventually that company should flourish just by the nature of the business area. So stock went down a lot and we bought a fair amount of it. We're going to try to, I talked to the CEO today, we'd like representation on the board as we always try to get. We may get it. We may not. We may have a proxy fight. We may not. We haven't decided yet.

我认为在那家公司你可以做很多事情。并不是说他们经营得很糟糕，但我认为其中许多事情，特别是多元化业务的问题，对他们的盈利、市盈率产生了伤害。不过，由于所在的业务领域本身的属性，这家公司最终应该能够繁荣起来。所以股价大幅下跌，我们也买了相当多的股票。我们打算争取在董事会中有所代表，这一直是我们努力的目标。也许我们会得到，也许不会。我们可能会发起代理人战，也可能不会。我们还没有决定。

But that's relatively small. We have a lot of companies that are IP. Right now I just mentioned CVI because it sort of typifies what we do over the years to get the record we've had.

但那相对来说很小。我们有很多公司都是知识产权公司。我刚刚提到CVI是因为它在多年来代表着我们取得的记录。

Yeah, speaking of record, I want to switch from industry to tech. And I went back nine years and I remember your first tweet you wrote. And that was back when you were in a proxy battle with a small computer company called Dell. This Twitter is great. I like it almost as much as I like Dell.

是的，说到记录，我想要从工业界转向科技领域。我回顾了九年前的情景，还记得你当时发的第一条推文。那个时候你正在与一家叫戴尔的小型计算机公司进行代理争斗。这个推特真是太棒了，我几乎和我喜欢戴尔一样喜欢它。

And now you come full circle because I've been hearing some rumors that, you know, before the Elon Musk move, people were approaching you to maybe launch a proxy battle with Twitter before Musk came in. Is that, are those rumors true?

现在你又回到了起点，因为我听说，在埃隆·马斯克加入之前，有人接近你，希望你发起一场与 Twitter 的代理战。这些传闻是真的吗？

Yeah, I was approached. I've been approached on different companies. I was approached. I looked at Twitter and I loved it. I think it's a great platform. I think Elon Musk is the perfect one for that company. You don't have to be a genius to realize that he was going to finish that deal. You know, he was up against lawsuits that he wouldn't have won in that in Delaware, my opinion, the Chesapeake court there. And so we bought a lot of stock in it. Well, I bought stock when it went down after when he was, we were thinking of it and then he announced what he was doing. The stock went down. We loaded up with it. I mean, we bought. Costa. I can't remember exactly 15 million shares, which is fair amount to get what it was in the 30s.

是的，我被接触过。我受到了不同公司的接触。我被接触到了。我看了Twitter，我喜欢它。我认为它是一个很棒的平台。我认为埃隆·马斯克是那家公司的完美人选。你不需要是一个天才来意识到他将完成那笔交易。你知道，他面对了那些在特拉华州切萨皮克法院他不可能赢得的诉讼。所以我们买入了大量的股票。嗯，当他考虑该方案并宣布他将要做时，股票下跌了。我们以低价买进了它。我是说，我们购买了… 我记不清具体是1,500万股，这对于原先股价在30几美元的公司来说是相当多的。

And I look at it two ways. I believe that he was going to do the deal. And if you did the deal, that's great. Because I do believe we go to corporate governance now. And one of the major problems in this country, and I keep saying it, not the only COVID problem because you need discipline as far as inflation goes. And we have that real problem. But one of the major problems is there's no corporate governance. I mean, corporate governance in this country is an oxymoron. Corporate democracy is an oxymoron. And there's an article today about a black rock talking about it. And I hope my figure, and I know him, really does something because actually these index funds protect bad CEOs or CEOs that are just there. And you don't have any accountability in corporate America. And in Twitter, I think it's sort of ludicrous. I mean, I'm not going to get into politics, whether or not you should have the right to censor somebody or not. Although I think you really shouldn't censor anybody unless there's a real reason for it. But what's ludicrous is that a couple of people at Twitter who are employees in Twitter, they work for the shareholders, decided they're great wisdom who could go on the platform and who can't. And I think those days are over. That's just ludicrous.

我有两种看法。我相信他本来打算做这笔交易。如果你完成了这笔交易，那太好了。因为我确实认为现在我们要走向公司治理。而这个国家的一个主要问题之一，我不停地说，不仅仅是COVID问题，因为在通胀方面你需要纪律。而我们确实有这个真正的问题。但是一个主要问题就是没有公司治理。我的意思是，公司治理在这个国家是个自相矛盾的词。公司民主是一个自相矛盾的词。今天有一篇关于黑石集团的文章提到了这个问题。我希望我的朋友（也指可能是黑石集团的高管）真的能采取些行动，因为事实上这些指数基金在保护那些糟糕的CEO或者只是摆设的CEO。在美国企业中，你没有任何问责制。就拿Twitter来说，我觉得这有点荒谬。我的意思是，我不会涉及政治问题，即使你应不应该有权利对某人进行审查。尽管我认为只有在有真正理由的情况下才应该对某人进行审查。但荒谬的是，Twitter的几个员工决定谁可以在平台上发言，谁不可以，他们以自己伟大的智慧行事，而他们实际上是为股东工作的。我认为那些日子已经过去了。这简直荒谬。

So I just looked at it and felt that I got a lot of calls about it. And so I said to myself, you know, I'm buying stock here. If for some reason, must doesn't do it, we'll probably launch a proxy file. But what happened was, must came in and I said to myself, I said to my guys, I mean, he's the perfect guy for this. And I would obviously have supported anything he did. I think he's, yeah, I don't know him, but I think he's some of the things he says and does, I think, I'm brilliant. I mean, I'm not in Tesla, but I never own Tesla because, you know, to me, it's not my kind of stock. It's just too high a multiple. But so we went in and all that stock. And, you know, we made a lot of money on it. But if I'm happy about that, if there's something exciting to me, I wish I was looking forward to doing a fight on that one. Because it's so outrageous.

所以我只是看了一下，感觉有很多关于这个的电话。于是我对自己说，你知道，我要在这里买股票。如果由于某种原因,Must不采取行动，我们可能会发起一场代理文件。但事实是，Must赶到了，我对自己说，我对我的队友们说，他对这个事情来说是完美的人选。如果他做了任何事情，我当然都会支持。我觉得他很厉害，虽然我并不了解他，但是我认为他说和做的一些事情很棒。我的意思是，我不持有特斯拉的股票，因为对我来说，它不是我熟悉的那种股票。它的估值太高了。但是我们购买了所有的股票，并且从中赚了很多钱。但如果我对此感到高兴，如果有什么让我兴奋的事情的话，我希望我能期待着在这件事上展开一场战斗。因为它实在太过离谱了。

In other words, I'll just repeat again. Why, if you want to, if you want to change the restaurants, if you want to see your family gave you a shade of restaurant, and you have a, you have a major domo at the restaurant, would you, would you allow him to say, I don't like that guy. He can't come into the restaurant. And I let that guy come in. And he said, I'm going to fire. I mean, so that, to me, it just was a ludicrous situation. And I'm not deciding here or discussing the political aspects of whether or not you should have censorship. But I do believe that there is freedom of speech, which is extremely important. And yeah, there should be some censorship in certain cases. But it shouldn't be up to the employee of the company, whether he's called CEO or whatever he's called, to decide, I don't like that guy's politics. I'm not letting him on. So I was, I was ready to get outraged and get into it. But what the heck? I would be glad we made all the money we made on it. Yeah.

换句话说，我只是再重复一遍。如果你想要的话，如果你想要换餐馆，如果你想要看到你的家人给你一个餐馆的阴影，并且你在餐馆有一个总管，你会允许他说“我不喜欢那个人。他不能进来餐馆。”而我却让那个人进来了。然后他说，“我要解雇他。”我的意思是，对我来说，这种情况太荒谬了。我不在这里决定或者讨论是否应该有审查制度的政治方面。但我确实相信言论自由非常重要。是的，某些情况下应该进行一些审查制度。但决定是否让某个人上台不应该由公司的雇员来决定，无论他被称为首席执行官还是其他称呼。所以我当时准备愤怒并与他辩论，但是算了，我们赚了那么多钱，我还是很高兴。

How much, how much you make on that trade? Well, I can tell you it's public anyway. We made about a quarter of a billion, 250, 200 million, maybe 250. And, but we have a big portfolio in IEP. IEP this year is doing very well because, you know, I've been smart or lucky in short, I show up positions, I work it out and law positions are sort of working out. So the net asset value of IEP has gone up over so far for the nine months over a billion. So every year we try to keep ourselves long and short and look for those little jewels. And that's, that's what we do over there. And, and, yeah.

在那笔交易上你赚了多少钱？嗯，不管怎样，我可以告诉你这是公开的。我们大约赚了2.5亿，可能是2亿或2.5亿。而且，我们在IEP有一个很大的投资组合。IEP今年表现得很好，因为我在减仓和抄底方面聪明或幸运，我做出了最佳持仓组合。所以IEP的净资产在这九个月里已经增长了超过十亿。所以每年我们都会尽力找到那些小宝石来保持我们的多空头。这就是我们在那里做的事情。嗯，还有。

I got to ask with Twitter, I mean, you were, you bought a lot of stock and then you kept on buying and, you know, when Musk was going back and forth, will he bivly not, you know, the media was, you know, there was a lot of people thought it would go through. A lot of people thought it wouldn't go through. It seemed like almost like coin toss, but you were confident the whole way. I'd love to get into your kind of your thinking there where it's like, I'm going to buy and keep on buying and you just, your gut said that it was going to go through. Is it you've been, you've seen this so many times or?

我要问一下关于Twitter的事，我的意思是，你买了很多股票，然后继续买，你知道，当马斯克来来回回的时候，他是不是不买，你知道，媒体上有很多人认为会通过。很多人认为不会通过。这似乎就像是扔硬币，但你一直很有信心。我很想了解一下你的思考方式，就像是“我要买进并继续买进”，你就是凭直觉觉得它会通过。你是不是已经见过这种情况很多次了，还是有其他原因？

Yeah, yeah. I've done the same subject. I think that the company itself is a great platform for this country, a great platform. And you look around at some of the technology companies in that same area. I don't think they're that well run. So here, so I look at it. Just, I think Musk is a little, I've seen what he's done. He's a perfect guy to run it. He's a brilliant guy and all of that. So I figured he's going to do it. It's perfect there. And all this bull that he didn't have the money to do it is nonsense. If you look at his networking, look at his balance sheet and you look at all the stock he's got, I mean, that was just completely nonsense. So in my mind anyway, and in my mind though, throughout this whole thing, he did pay a little too much for it, but not as bad as people say. I really think that that company because of what it stands for, you know, is worth in the low 30s maybe. So maybe he did pay a little more, you know, today, but so maybe he paid a little more. But that's a sort of a rounding error for the guy. And so I figured, you know, this is, he's going to do it. But even, but if he didn't, I was definitely going to launch a proxy site. Well, not definitely, but close to. I mean, it wasn't, you have it. And I would have asked him to be on the board or be, uh, it would be chairman or something. Yeah. Who would be your CEO Twitter if it wasn't, you know, isn't Elon. They didn't call me because it's not my kind of thing. But if he had called me, I would have put a little bit of a little bit of a hit in that, you know, with him because I think he's going to do real well with it. But I would have, I probably would have wanted to prefer to something, you know, but, but nobody would have called me. And I'm glad they didn't. So that's basically that one.

是的，是的。我也学过同样的科目。我认为这家公司本身就是这个国家一个非常好的平台，一个非常好的平台。你看看那个同一地区的一些科技公司，我觉得它们的管理并不是很好。所以，我看到这一点。我认为马斯克有点...我看到他的所作所为。他是一个完美的人来经营这个公司。他是一个聪明的人等等。所以我想他会做到的。那些说他没有资金做这件事的谎言简直是胡说八道。如果你看看他的人脉关系，看看他的资产负债表，看看他所有的股票，我觉得那完全是胡扯。在我看来，虽然他花了点儿多，但还不至于像人们说的那样糟糕。我真的认为，因为这个公司所代表的意义，它可能值30几个亿的美元。也许他今天付了点儿多，但对这家公司来说，那只是一个小小的疏忽。所以我想，你知道，他会做到的。但即使他没有，我肯定会启动一个代理网站。嗯，并不是绝对，但离绝对很近。我是说，这取决于情况。如果他给我打电话，我可能会提供一些帮助，因为我认为他会做得很好。但也许我宁愿参与某些方面的事情，但是没有人给我打电话。我很高兴他们没有，所以基本上就是这样。

And you mentioned, you know, you're put, you know, you always have longs and shorts. Always hedged. Could you give us one, give us a new long position and a new short position? Or what would you pick right now? What do you, what are you looking at?

你提到了，你知道，你总是持有多头和空头。总是对冲。你能给我们一个新的多头仓位和一个新的空头仓位吗？或者你现在选择什么？你在看什么？

Well, if you, I told you, like, to me, I really, um, because about it, you know, I'm not going to do it. Because about, you know, I have positions here. It's difficult for me to buy any more of it, but we own so much of it. The CVI, I think it's going to be. Do there's things at CVI like that, like the stuff that we're going to be doing in the fertilized business, for instance. I mean, so that's a good one. There are other ones I can't talk about at all because, you know, the earnings are now and whatever that I think are cheap. I think Crown, I think Crown Company is really cheap in the sense that it's in an industry that is not going to be affected that badly. In my opinion, I mean, short term, nobody could talk about it. But long term, it's not going to be affected that badly in a recession and a fact it's growing. So you have a company that's growing and it's hard to compete with that one too because, you know, you can't just go and build a can company. You have to be in an area because, you know, when you ship these cans, you have a problem of paying for shipping because, you know, can't take up a lot of space. So you have to be pretty near a large user of those cans. So it's hard to break in it. So it's barriers of interest, natural barriers of interest, which I like. And so you just look for that Colonel and then the other little thing is sort of the thing. I think that's going to be down the road, I think, but I think they should stick to their business. That's what I think could not be diversifying all over.

嗯，如果你要我说的话，对我来说，实际上，因为关于这个，你知道，我不会做。因为你知道，我在这里有职位。对我来说很难再买更多，但我们拥有这么多。我认为CVI是一个例子。在CVI中有类似的东西，像我们在化肥业务中要做的那些东西，比如。我的意思是，那是一个好的选择。还有其他一些我不能谈论的可能因为，你知道，此时正是收入报表，不过我觉得一些公司很便宜。我认为Crown公司真的很便宜，它所处的行业不会受到太严重的影响。在我看来，短期内没人能谈论它。但是从长期来看，它不会受到太严重的衰退影响，事实上它还在增长。所以你有一个正在增长的公司，很难与它竞争，因为你不能只是建一个罐头公司。你必须在一个区域内，因为当你运送这些罐子时，你会有运费的问题，因为罐子占用了很多空间。所以你必须离那些罐子的大型用户相当近。因此很难进入。所以这是利益自然屏障，我喜欢。所以你只需寻找那个元帅，然后另一个小东西就像那个东西一样。我认为这是未来的方向，但我认为他们应该专注于他们的业务。我认为他们不应该过于分散。

Sorry, we're almost at a time and this has been a big day. We talked a lot about a lot of scary things on the horizon, things to be worried about, whether it's geopolitical, whether it's inflation, stock market. You've been shaking things up for decades. You've seen it all. You've heard it all because you share any wisdom or advice to the room before we go have a cocktail. It could be about life. It could be about investing. It could be about running a company. What do you got?

抱歉，时间差不多到了，而且今天是个重要的一天。我们讨论了很多令人担忧的事情，无论是地缘政治，通胀还是股市。你几十年来一直在引发变革。你经历了一切，听过一切，你能分享一些智慧或建议给在场的人们吗？之后我们可以一起喝杯鸡尾酒。可以是关于生活的，可以是关于投资的，也可以是关于经营公司的。你有什么想说的呢？

Well, I would just say that it's really funny. When I was in college, as a freshman, and I didn't know much about the market at all, I was always a little intrigued by it, I went out and just was thinking back on this. It really happened. I was basically, I got it to Princeton and I came from middle class background from a sort of bad high school. But I made friends with a couple of the wealthier guys and as a freshman.

嗯，我只能说这真的很有趣。当我还是大学新生时，对市场一无所知的我总是有些好奇，现在回顾起来，真的发生过。基本上，我考上了普林斯顿大学，我来自一个中产阶级背景，上了一所不太好的高中。但我与几个比较富裕的人交了朋友，作为一个新生。

One of them invited me to dinner with his father. His father came up to see him. His father was a big deal on Wall Street. He sort of very well thought of, really very respected. We were sitting there and he looked at me and he said, you have some promise business because I asked him a couple of questions about Wall Street a little bit. He says, one thing I'm going to give you, one bit of advice. Just remember this. Remember this kid. He was a nice guy. Remember this kid. If you ever get into Wall Street and this business, follow one rule. And I'm not joking. Just what he said. Never fight the Fed. And that's what I've learned that. So I will tell them my advice is this Fed and Powell, I listened to him.

其中一个邀请我和他的父亲一起吃饭。他的父亲前来看他。他的父亲在华尔街上很有地位。他在行内颇受赞誉，非常受人尊敬。我们坐在那里，他看着我说，你在商界有些前途，因为我向他问了一些关于华尔街的问题。他说，我要给你一个建议。要记住这个。记住这个孩子。他是个好人。记住这个孩子。如果你进入华尔街，从事这个行业，遵循一个规则。我不是在开玩笑，就是他说的。永远不要与美联储对抗。这就是我学到的。所以我会告诉他们我的建议就是听从美联储和鲍威尔（美联储主席）的意见。

And he's a serious guy and he's going to be, there's none of this stuff. All these guys are saying, oh, they're going to pivot. They should pivot in this and that. And you know, these guys that tell you that are the guy, a lot of them are telling you that because they put all these people into these companies that are overpriced. And there are many good companies now, but many overpriced ones. And I am happy that Powell really means business. And I really think he does before. So you must get rid of this inflation. And that's the worst thing an economy can have. And I think he means business. And I really respected him for coming out and saying it. And I hope I'm right. And I think it's going to be, look, I've said it a few times. I think it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better, perhaps. But all these people that are telling you, you should pivot. You know what it is? It's like telling a drug addict.

他是一个认真的人，他会表现出行动，不会像其他人那样说风凉话。这些人都在说，哦，他们应该改变策略，应该在这方面改变。你知道吗，那些告诉你这些的人，很多都是因为他们把很多人放进了这些定价过高的公司里。现在有很多好公司，但也有很多定价过高的公司。我很高兴鲍威尔真的认真对待这个问题。我真的认为他是认真的。之前他必须解决这个通胀问题。通胀是一个经济最糟糕的问题。我很尊重他公开说出来。我希望我是对的。我觉得情况可能会更糟，好转之前还会变得更糟。但所有那些告诉你应该改变策略的人，你知道吗？这就像告诉一个吸毒者一样。

Let's say your kids are drug addict and telling him, okay, you took enough, you know, you stopped tricking enough now. Okay, go out at good time again. Well, you can't do that, right? You have to get rid of the guy there, problem you got. And that's what we need to do here. And don't fool yourself. There's going to be a lot more headaches, I think, before we get out of this mess we're in because you can't have the Fed, even if they want to. Over the last 20 or 30 years, they were able to, the Fed was able to come in and save you and save the market. And they go into this tape and tape and tape and tape. But they can't do it now because right now, even if they wanted to, you can't keep printing on money because it's going to just throw gasoline on the flames of inflation. So I think this is what you got to understand.

假设你的孩子成瘾了，告诉他：“好吧，你已经够了，知道该停止作恶了。好了，你可以再次过上好日子了。”那么，你不可能这样做，对吧？你必须解决掉那个成问题的人。这就是我们现在需要做的。不要自欺欺人。在我们摆脱当前困境之前，我认为可能还会有更多的麻烦，因为即使联邦储备系统愿意帮助，他们在过去20或30年中确实能够进入市场并拯救你。他们一直在纠结这个问题，纠结了又纠结。但现在他们做不到了，因为即使他们愿意，也不能继续印钱，因为这只会对通胀火上浇油。所以，我认为这是你必须明白的。

However, there's some very good companies out there. And, you know, if you're willing to buy them and, you know, have the patience, yeah, I think you'll look back at five years or something, the lesson for you and see that they were great buys. But right now, I think they're very far and few between.

然而，市场上仍有一些非常好的公司。你知道的，如果你愿意购买它们并且有耐心，是的，我认为在五年后或许你会回顾自己从中学到的教训，并发现它们是非常好的投资。但是目前来看，这样的公司非常少。

Well, this is great, Carl. Thank you for the advice. You said don't fight the Fed. I'm going to add another rule to that. I think everyone can agree is you also don't want to ever fight Carl Icahn either in a proxy battle. We could add that. But, you know, thank for being here again. For decades, you've changed finance, you've changed business. I think, you know, I have no sense. The year 2000, until now, 22 years, you've had an annualized return of 15% every year, which blows everything else out of the water. You know, we really appreciate you being here. And I'm honored on behalf of Forbes to give you our first ever iconic last award right here. Can you see it? We should call it the iconic last, the iconic last award in your honor.

嗯，这太棒了，卡尔。谢谢你的建议。你说过不要和美联储对抗。我要再加一条规定。我想每个人都同意，你也绝对不要与卡尔·伊坎在代理战争中对抗。我们可以加上这一条。不过，你知道，再次感谢你来到这里。几十年来，你改变了金融界，改变了商界。我想，你知道，我无法理解。从2000年到现在，22年里，你的年化回报率达到了每年15％，这远远超过其他任何数据。我们真的很感谢你能来这里。我代表福布斯非常荣幸地授予你我们首个标志性“最佳奖”，就在这里。你能看到吗？我们应该称之为标志性“最佳奖”，以纪念你。

So you said you had a cocktail? You said you're making a martini. You have a martini there? Here in the house? Yeah, you said you're going to have a martini for the award. You have a martini there? Well, a little later. I usually play tennis for an hour now and then have it an hour. So you do it now and I'll do it about an hour. Actually, maybe sooner. That sounds good. Well, thank you very much, Carl. Appreciate it. All right. Thanks. Great job.

那么你说你有一杯鸡尾酒？你说你在调一杯马天尼酒。你有马天尼酒吗？在这间屋子里？没错，你说你要为奖项喝一杯马天尼酒。你有马天尼酒吗？那好吧，稍后吧。我通常会打一个小时的网球，然后再喝鸡尾酒一个小时。那么你现在去做，我大约一个小时后再做。实际上，也许会更早一点。听起来不错。非常感谢，卡尔。感激不尽。好的。谢谢你，干得好。