Live: Tesla Q3 Earnings Call 2023 (TSLA)
发布时间 2023-10-18 23:21:37 来源
摘要
Listen to Elon Musk and Tesla management discuss Tesla's Q3 2023 financial results and answer questions from investors and ...
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中英文字稿 
And we believe there's still meaningful room for improvement there. Regarding autopilot and AI, our vehicles now driven over half a billion miles with FSD beta, full self-driving beta, and that number is growing rapidly. We recently completed a 10,000 GPU cluster of H100s. We think probably bring it into operation faster than anyone's ever bought that much compute per unit time into production since training is the fundamental limiting factor on progress with full self-driving and vehicle autonomy.
我们相信在这方面仍有很大的改进空间。关于自动驾驶和人工智能，我们的车辆现在已经在全自动驾驶测试中行驶了超过50亿英里的里程，而且这个数字正在快速增长。我们最近完成了一个由10,000台H100 GPU组成的计算机群集。我们认为可能比任何人都更快地将其投入生产，因为训练是全自动驾驶和车辆自主性进展的根本限制因素。
We're also seeing significant promise with FSD version 12. This is the end-to-end AI where it's a photon count in, controls out, or really you can think of it as does a large bit stream coming in and a tiny bit stream going out. Compressing reality into a very small set of outputs, which is actually kind of how humans work. The vast majority of human data input is optics from our eyes. And so we are like the car photons in, controls out with neural nets, just neural nets in the middle. It's very interesting to think about that. We will continue to invest significantly in AI development as this is really the massive game changer. And success in this regard in the long term, I think, has the potential to make Tesla the most valuable company in the world by far. If you have fully autonomous cars at scale and fully autonomous humanoid robots that are truly useful, it's not clear what the limit is.
我们同时也看到了FSD 12版本的巨大潜力。这是端到端人工智能，可以将光子计数输入，控制信号输出，或者你可以想象成一个大比特流输入，一个小比特流输出。将现实压缩成一个非常少的输出集合，这其实类似于人类的工作方式。人类绝大多数的数据输入来自我们的眼睛。所以我们像汽车一样，光子进去，控制信号输出，中间只是加入了神经网络。思考这个问题非常有趣。我们将继续大规模投资于人工智能开发，因为这真的是一个巨大的改变游戏规则的因素。从长远来看，成功在这方面有潜力让特斯拉成为远远超过其他公司的最有价值的公司。如果能够大规模使用完全自主的汽车和真正有用的完全自主的人形机器人，那么未来的潜力是不明确的。
Regarding energy storage, we deployed all gigawatt hours of energy of storage products in Q3. And as this business grows, the energy vision is becoming our highest margin business. Energy and service now contribute over half a billion dollars to quarterly profit. The Cybertruck, I know that people are excited about the Cybertruck. I am too. I've driven the car. It's an amazing product. I do want to emphasize that there will be enormous challenges in breaching volume production with the Cybertruck and then in making the Cybertruck catchload positive. This is simply normal. When you've got a product with a lot of new technology, or any new brand new vehicle program, but especially one that is as different and advanced as the Cybertruck, you will have problems proportionate to how many new things you're trying to solve at scale.
关于能量存储方面，我们在第三季度部署了所有千兆瓦小时的能量存储产品。随着这项业务的增长，能源视觉成为了我们利润最高的业务。能源和服务目前为季度利润做出了超过五亿美元的贡献。关于Cybertruck，我知道人们对Cybertruck充满了期待，我也是。我已经开过这辆车了，它是一款令人惊叹的产品。我想强调的是，在实现Cybertruck的大规模生产和使其盈利上，会面临巨大的挑战。这是正常现象。当你拥有一款拥有许多新技术的产品，或者任何全新品牌的汽车项目，尤其是像Cybertruck这样不同和先进的产品，你将会面临与你试图解决的新事物数量成比例的问题。
I just don't emphasize that one I think is potentially our best product ever. I think it is our best product ever. It is going to require immense work to reach volume production and be catchload positive at a price that people can afford. Often, people do not understand what is truly hard. That's why I say prototypes are easy production is hard. People think it's the idea or you make a prototype. You design a car. As soon as the design car is, does anyone can do it? It does require taste. It does require effort to design a prototype. The difficulty going from a prototype to a volume production is like 10,000% harder to get to the production than to make the prototype in the first place. It is even harder than that to reach positive cash flow. That is why there have not been new cars start-ups that have been successful for 100 years. Apart from Tesla. I just want to temper expectations for Cybertruck. It is a great product, but financially it will take a year to 18 months before it is a significant price of cash flow contributor. I wish there was some way that to be different, but that's my best guess. The demand is off the charts. We have over a million people who have reserved the car. It's not a demand issue, but we have to make it a price that people can afford. It's a very difficult thing.
我只是不强调那个我认为可能是我们有史以来最佳产品的东西。我认为它是我们有史以来最好的产品。要达到大规模生产，并以人们能够负担得起的价格大量销售，将需要巨大的工作量。很多时候，人们并不明白什么才是真正的困难。所以我说，原型很容易，但生产很困难。人们认为重要的是想法或者原型制作。你设计了一辆车，一旦设计好了，有人可以随便做吗？这需要一定的品味。制作原型也需要努力。从原型到大规模生产的困难程度相当于将原型制作出来时的困难程度增加了将近10,000%。要实现正现金流甚至更难。这就是为什么100年来没有任何新的汽车初创公司取得成功，除了特斯拉。我只是想对Cybertruck的预期进行调整。它是一个很棒的产品，但从财务角度来看，在它成为重要的现金流贡献者之前，可能需要一年到18个月的时间。需求非常火爆，我们已经有超过一百万人预订了这款车。所面临的问题不是需求，而是我们必须以人们能够承受的价格来制造它。这是一件非常困难的事情。
In conclusion, we continue to focus on ramping production while maintaining positive cash flow. We continue to target and expect to have around 1.8 billion vehicle deliveries as stated earlier this year. The Tesla AI team is, I think, one of the world's best and I think it is actually by far the world's best when it comes to real world AI. I'll say that again, Tesla has the best real world AI team on Earth, period, and it's getting better. Lastly, I wanted to thank all of our employees who are making a lot of extra effort during uncertain times. Thank you very much for your hard work and the impact that you're making.
总之，我们将继续专注于提高产量的同时保持正向现金流。我们仍然目标和期望今年早些时候宣布的1.8亿辆车交付量。特斯拉的人工智能团队是世界上最好的团队之一，实际上我认为是迄今为止世界上最好的真实世界人工智能团队。我再说一遍，特斯拉拥有地球上最好的真实世界人工智能团队，毫无疑问，而且它还在不断进步。最后，我要感谢在不确定时期付出了很多额外努力的所有员工。非常感谢你们的辛勤工作和所做出的影响。
Thank you very much, Elon, and our CFO wydebound for some opening remarks as well.
非常感谢你，埃隆，以及我们的首席财务官wydebound的开场致辞。
Thanks, Martin. A week of deliveries in Q3 outpace production, and we had yet another record quarter of profitability in our energy business. Congratulations to the Tesla team for the continued focus on operational excellence as we navigate through a period of economic uncertainty, higher interest rates, and shifting consumer sentiment.
谢谢，马丁。在第三季度，我们的交付量超过了生产量，我们的能源业务再次实现了创纪录的盈利季度。祝贺特斯拉团队在经济不确定、利率上升和消费者情绪转变的时期继续专注于运营卓越。
As Elon mentioned, our Q3 operational and financial performance was impacted by planned downtowns for our factory upgrades. This was necessary to allow for further factory improvements and production rate increases. Despite such factory shutdowns, our cost per vehicle decreased to approximately 37,500. We saw sequential decreases in material cost and freight. Producing the cost of our vehicles is our top priority.
正如埃隆提到的那样，我们在第三季度的运营和财务表现受到了计划中的工厂升级停产的影响。这是为了进一步改善工厂并提高产量而必要的。尽管有工厂停产，我们每辆车的成本降至大约37,500美元。我们的材料成本和运输成本都有所下降。降低车辆成本是我们的首要任务。
On the operating expenses front, R&D expenses continue to rise due to cyber truck prototype builds and pilot production testing combined with spend on AI technologies like folks are driving optimists and doger. We have and will continue to make investments in these areas, and hence our capital expenditure and R&D will continue to grow in the near term. However, our focus is to continue making investments through positive cash flow from operations. This year itself, we have generated operating cash flows of approximately 8.9 billion and three cash flows of approximately 2.3 billion.
在运营费用方面，由于进行了Cyber Truck原型机的建造和试生产测试，以及在AI技术方面的投入，如自动驾驶和狗狗币，研发费用继续上升。我们已经在这些领域进行了投资，并将继续在近期增加资本支出和研发支出。然而，我们的重点是通过运营现金流继续进行投资。仅在今年，我们已经产生了约89亿的经营现金流和约23亿的自由现金流。
Another businesses are becoming more prominent on a standalone basis with energy business leading the charge primarily from the growth in megabyte departments. Our services and other businesses on a year-on-year basis also continue to show positive momentum as we benefit from ongoing fleet.
另外一些业务正在逐渐成为独立的主要业务，能源业务在此方面的发展中出现了最突出的成绩，这主要归功于兆字节部门的增长。我们的服务和其他业务也在按年份计算的基础上继续展现积极的势头，因为我们从持续的船队运营中受益。
As regards our pricing strategy, in addition to what we have shared before, I want to elaborate that most car buying happens with one or other form of financing. And hence, we also view pricing in terms of monthly costs for the customer. And therefore, as interest costs in the US have risen substantially, it has required us to adjust the price of our vehicles to keep the monthly cost in parity. We've tried to offset such adjustments via a focus on reducing costs. However, there is an inherent lag in cost reductions, which in turn impacts margins. To that extent, we recently announced a partner vehicle leasing program in the US whereby you can get a standard rate model Y for as low as $3.99 a month.
关于我们的定价策略，除了之前我们分享的内容，我想进一步解释一下，大部分汽车购买都会通过某种形式的融资来进行。因此，我们也会从客户每月的费用来考虑定价。因此，由于美国的利息成本大幅上升，我们不得不调整车辆的价格以保持每月费用的平衡。我们试图通过专注于降低成本来抵消这种调整。然而，成本降低存在固有的滞后性，从而影响了利润率。在这个意义上，我们最近在美国宣布了一个合作伙伴车辆租赁计划，您可以以每月3.99美元的低价获得标准款Model Y。
In conclusion, as we navigate through a challenging economic environment, we'll focus on reducing costs, maximizing delivery volumes, and continuing making investments in the future in particular AI and other next-generation platform. We believe this strategy positions as well for the long term. Once again, I would like to thank the Tesla team for their efforts in the last four. Thank you very much. And now let's go to investor questions.
总结一下，在我们应对具有挑战性的经济环境时，我们将专注于降低成本，最大化交付量，并继续对未来特别是人工智能和其他下一代平台进行投资。我们相信这一战略为我们长期发展打下了良好的基础。再次，我要感谢特斯拉团队在过去四年中的努力。非常感谢。现在让我们转向投资者的问题。
The first investor question comes from Craig. How many cyber truck deliveries do you anticipate for 2024? I simple to make an accurate guess at this point. Going back to what I said earlier, that the ramp is going to be extremely difficult. Like I said, there's no way around that. If you try to make, if we just try to do some copycat vehicle design of which there are literally 200 models that are slight variations on a theme in the combustion engine world, just distinctions without a difference, then it's really not that hard. But if you want to do something radical and innovative and something really special like the cyber truck, it is extremely difficult because there's nothing to copy. You have to invent not just the car, but the way to make the car. So the more uncharted the territory, the less predictable the outcome. Now I can say that if you say, well, where will things end up? I think we'll end up with roughly a quarter million cyber trucks a year. And I don't think we're going to reach that output right next year. I think we're probably going to reach it sometime in 2025. That's my best guess. Thank you.
第一个投资者问题来自克雷格。您预计2024年的Cybertruck交付数量是多少？目前很难精确猜测。回到我之前说的话，温床期会非常困难。就像我说的，这是无可避免的。如果我们只是试图设计一些模仿的车型，对于燃油发动机领域来说，有将近200个型号是微小差异的变种，那么这真的不难。但是，如果您想做一些根本革新和独特的事情，就像Cybertruck那样，就会非常困难，因为没有可以模仿的东西。您不仅需要发明汽车，还需要发明制造汽车的方式。所以，越是没有经验的领域，结果就越不可预测。现在我可以说，如果您问我车型最终会走到哪里，我认为我们每年最终会达到大约25万辆Cybertruck。我不认为我们明年就会达到这样的产量，我认为我们可能在2025年的某个时候会达到。这只是我的最佳猜测。谢谢。
The second question is, can you provide a progress update on the 4680 cell, particularly progress, though, with performance improvements and cost savings, South line on battery day? Thank you.
第二个问题是，您能提供一下关于4680电池的进展更新吗？尤其是关于性能改进和成本节约方面，在电池日上的南生产线的进展如何？谢谢。
Sure thing, Martin. 4680 cell production in Texas increased 40% quarter over quarter in gross to the Texas team for producing their 20 million cell off of line one. Texas is now our primary 4680 facility. We're heavily focused on quality. Scrap is down 40% quarter over quarter with the increased volume and yield improvements. Cell costs consistently improved month over month within the quarter, although we have a lot more work to do to achieve our steady state goals. And that is our priority.
当然，马丁。德克萨斯州的4680电池产量季度环比增长40%，毛利润达到了2000万电池。德克萨斯现在是我们的主要4680生产基地。我们非常注重质量。废品量随着产量增加和效益提高而季度环比下降了40%。电池成本在季度内的每个月都保持稳步改善，尽管我们还有很多工作要做才能实现我们稳定状态的目标。这是我们的首要任务。
The cyber truck sell with 10% higher energy than our Model Y cell started production online to in Texas. This quarter we convert to building 100% cyber truck cells to simplify and focus the factory as we ramp all four lines in phase one over the next three quarters. Phase two of the Texas 4680 facility is currently under construction. The additional four lines incorporate further capital efficiencies over phase one and our target is for them to start producing in late 2024.
请注意，以下是我的翻译尝试：
赛博卡车的能源比我们的Model Y电池要高出10％。本季度，我们将实现全面转型，开始在德克萨斯州在线上生产100％的赛博卡车电池，以简化和集中工厂的生产力，同时在接下来的三个季度内逐步扩充四条生产线的产能。德克萨斯4680工厂的第二阶段目前正在建设中。这四条附加生产线将进一步提高生产效率，我们的目标是在2024年底开始生产。
Lastly, in Cato, we're retooling to enable large scale pilot runs of our next generation cell designs. Cato's long term goal is to be the launch pad for new cells. One generation ahead of our mass production facilities, enabling faster iteration and smoother ramp ups of new designs. Thank you.
最后，在Cato，我们正在进行改进，以实现下一代电池设计的大规模试验生产。Cato的长期目标是成为新型电池的推出平台。我们的生产设施领先一代，能够加快新设计的迭代速度并顺利实现扩大生产。谢谢。
The next question from institutional investors, could you please provide an update on capacity expansion plans for companies, factories in Berlin and Austin and the opening schedule of Gigafactory Mexico.
下一个来自机构投资者的问题，请您提供有关公司、柏林和奥斯汀工厂扩容计划的最新情况和墨西哥巨型工厂开放时间表。
Berlin and Austin factory, the current priority is actually maximized the output from our existing lines by laser focus on efficiency improvement. As always, maintaining a high quality and reducing per unit cost will be as critical as growing production volume. For Mexico, we're working on infrastructure in factory design in parallel with the engineering development of new production that will be manufactured there. That's I can share from that. Mexico, we're laying the groundwork to begin construction and doing all the long lead items. But I think we want to just get a sense for the global economy is like before we go full tilt on the Mexico factory. I'm worried about the high interest rate environment that we're in. I just can't have said this enough that the vast majority of people buying a car is about the monthly payment. And as interest rates rise, the proportion of that monthly payment that is interest increases naturally. If interest rates remain high or if they go even higher, it's that much harder for people to buy the car. They simply can't afford it.
柏林和奥斯汀工厂，目前的首要任务实际上是通过集中关注效率提升来最大化我们现有生产线的产出。与往常一样，保持高质量和降低单位成本将和增加生产量一样关键。至于墨西哥，我们正在同时进行工厂设计的基础设施建设以及新生产的工程开发，新生产将在那里制造。这就是我可以分享的情况。至于墨西哥，我们正在筹备施工，并完成所有的前期准备工作。但在我们全面投入墨西哥工厂之前，我认为我们想要了解全球经济的状况。我对我们所处的高利率环境感到担忧。我再怎么强调都不为过，购车者购车主要是看月供。随着利率上升，月供中利息的比例自然增加。如果利率保持高位，或者进一步上升，人们购买汽车就更加困难了。他们简单地买不起。
We're tracking at this point for Model Y to be the selling car on earth, but not just in revenue, but in unit volume. If you compare that to the other vehicles that are number two and number three and whatnot, they cost much less than our car. We're just hitting low of large numbers situations here. I know people want to advertise and we are advertising. I think there is something to be gained on the advertising fund. I don't think it's nothing. In forming people of a car that is great, but they cannot afford, doesn't just really help. So that is really the thing that must be sold is to make the car portable or the average person cannot buy it for any amount of money. Or they can't afford it. They can't afford it. So this is a great deal. Okay, thank you very much.
目前，我们追踪的数据显示Model Y有望成为地球上销量最高的汽车，不仅仅是收入方面，还包括销售数量。如果与其他排名第二、第三的车辆进行比较，它们的价格要远低于我们的车型。我们正在面临大量需求的情况。我知道人们希望我们进行广告宣传，我们也正在进行广告宣传。我认为在广告基金上是有所收益的，而不是一无所获。告诉人们一款优秀的汽车，但他们负担不起，不仅没有实质性的帮助，反而可能产生反效果。因此，真正需要推销的是使汽车价格合理，以至于普通人也有能力购买。这是一笔巨大的交易。非常感谢！
The next question is, when do you expect Model 3 Highland to be available in the US?
下一个问题是，您预计Model 3 Highland何时在美国上市？
I just wanted to address that unfortunately we don't answer product related questions and timings on earnings calls. So let's go to the next one.
我只是想说明很遗憾地我们不回答关于产品的问题以及在盈利电话会议上的时间安排。那么让我们继续下一个问题吧。
Current social consensus assumes that Tesla will deliver 2.3 million vehicles in 2024, representing 28% growth versus 2023 guidance. Is this growth rate achievable without any mass market launches in 2024? And when does Tesla expect to return to its 50% long-term cagor?
目前社会普遍共识认为，特斯拉将在2024年交付230万辆车，相较于2023年的预测增长28%。在2024年没有任何大众市场产品推出的情况下，这种增长率是否可实现？特斯拉何时预计会恢复到其长期的50%复合年增长率？
Next to the question, when you look at 2024, there are a lot of moving pieces. Elon just talked about what is happening in the micromic environment. So we'll focus on growing our volumes in a very cost-efficient manner and are carefully reviewing all our options and we'll be able to provide a much more meaningful update at our next earnings call. Yeah, I mean, there is good state in the obvious. It is not possible to have a compound growth rate of 50% forever or you will exceed the mass of the known universe. So I think we will grow very rapidly and much faster than any other car company on Earth by far. Thank you.
在谈及2024年时，有许多变动的因素。埃隆刚刚谈到了微小环境的情况。因此，我们将专注于以非常经济高效的方式增加销量，并仔细审视我们的所有选项。我们将能够在下一次财报电话会议上提供更有意义的更新。是的，我的意思是显而易见的。不可能永远保持50%的复合增长率，否则你会超越已知宇宙的质量。所以我认为我们将以更快的速度迅速增长，远远超过任何其他汽车公司。谢谢。
Next question is, do you have an approximate time light in mind for the Robotaxy driven or non-driven? What excites you most about how this project is progressing?
下一个问题是，对于Robotaxy驱动或非驱动的大致时间进度，您有什么想法？同时，关于这个项目进展的哪一点最让您激动？
The Robotaxy is like necessarily non-driven. I guess I'm very excited about our progress with autonomy. The end-to-end, nothing but nets. I saw driving software is amazing. I drives me all around Austin with no interventions. So, this is clearly the right move. So it's really, really, really amazing. And Robotaxy, that same software and approach will enable optimists to do useful things and enable optimists to learn how to do things simply by looking. So extremely exciting in the long term.
机器征召计划仿佛是必然的无驾驶之路。我想我对我们在自主性方面的进展感到非常兴奋。全流程无保留，毫无保留之网。我看到了令人惊讶的驾驶软件。它可以在奥斯汀市的各个地方带我漫游，完全无需干预。所以，显然这是正确的举措。所以，这真的、真的、真的很了不起。而机器征召，这套相同的软件和方法将使乐观主义者能够做一些有用的事情，并使乐观主义者能够通过观察简单地学会如何做事。从长远来看，非常令人激动。
As I mentioned before, given that economic output is a number of people times productivity. If you no longer have a constraint on people, effectively you've got a humanoid robot that can do as much as you'd like. Your economy is why is the infinite? For infinite for all intents and purposes. I don't think anyone is going to do it better than Tesla, not by a long shot. If bus dynamics is impressive, but the Robot lacks a brain. They're like the Wizard of Oz. You also need to be able to design the humanoid robot in such a way that it can be mass manufacturing. And then at some point the robots will manufacture the robots. Now obviously we need to make sure that there's a good place for humans in that future. We do not create some variants of the Terminator outcome. So we're going to put a lot of that into localized control of the humanoid robot. So basically anyone will be able to shut it off locally. And you can't change that even if you're like a software update, you can't change that. It has to be hard-coded. Thank you.
如我之前所提到的，考虑到经济产出是人数乘以生产力的结果。如果你不再受人员限制，实际上你拥有了一个能够按需工作的人形机器人。你的经济为什么是无限的？就所有目的而言，它为无限。我认为没有人能比特斯拉做得更好，远远超过其他人。
如果公交车的动力学令人印象深刻，但机器人缺乏大脑。他们就像《绿野仙踪》中的巫师。你还需要设计人形机器人以便能够进行大规模生产。然后在某个时候，机器人将制造机器人。现在显然我们需要确保人类在这个未来有一个好的位置。我们不会创造类似《终结者》的结果。所以我们会将人形机器人的大部分控制局限在本地。这样基本上任何人都能够在本地将其关闭。即使像软件更新这样的操作，也无法改变这一点。它必须是硬编码的。谢谢。
The next question is why was the price drop on FSD if it is getting better and robot taxis expected so soon? Well, we just wanted to make it more affordable. As an over-wook triad, I think over time the price of FSD will increase proportionate to its value so it would regard the current price as a kind of a temporary low. Thank you.
下一个问题是，如果功能完全自动驾驶（FSD）正在变得更好并且机器人出租车预计很快实现，那为什么价格下降了呢？嗯，我们只是想让它更实惠一些。作为一名过度工作的三人组成员，我认为随着时间的推移，FSD的价格将与其价值成正比增加，因此当前价格可以视为一种临时降价。谢谢。
The next question is again on FSD. Mercedes is accepting legal liability for when it's level three autonomous driving system drive pilot is active. Is Tesla planning to accept legal liability for FSD? And if so, when? Well, there's a lot of people that assume we have legal liability judging by the lawsuits. We're certainly not being left out of the hook on that front. Whether we would like to or wouldn't like to. I think it's important to remember for everyone that Mercedes' system is limited to a few roads in Nevada and some certain cities in California that doesn't work in the snow or the fog. It must have a weed car marked by only 40 miles per hour. Our system is meant to be holistic and drive in any condition so we obviously have a much more capable approach but with those kind of limitations it's really not very useful. You know, I think some people understand the profundity of Tesla AI system, but it's very very few. It's basically baby AGI. It has to understand reality in order to drive. Yeah, baby AGI. Thank you.
下一个问题再次涉及到FSD（全自动驾驶）。梅赛德斯宣布在其三级自动驾驶系统“驾驶员助手”激活时承担法律责任。特斯拉计划承担FSD的法律责任吗？如果是的话，何时承担？嗯，很多人认为我们在诉讼中早已承担了法律责任，我们在这方面绝对不会被遗漏。不管我们愿意还是不愿意。我认为大家应该记住，梅赛德斯的系统只限于内华达州的几条道路和加利福尼亚州的某些城市，不适用于雪天和雾天。限速只有40英里/小时。我们的系统旨在全面驾驶，在任何情况下都能行驶，所以我们显然有一个更强大的方法，但是带有那些限制，它真的没有太多用处。你知道的，我觉得有些人理解特斯拉的AI系统的深远意义，但真正理解的人非常非常少。它基本上就是一个“婴儿级AI”。它必须理解现实才能行驶。是的，婴儿级AI。谢谢。
The next question on optimus, will optimus be working on Gigafactory lines next year? If so, how many would you guess will be deployed? I think at this point we are not ready to discuss details of the optimus program, but we will provide periodic updates online so as you can see, where optimus a year ago could barely walk and now it can do yoga. So, a few years from now, it can probably do ballet. Sounds good.
关于Optimus，接下来的问题是，Optimus明年会在Gigafactory生产线上工作吗？如果是的话，您猜会有多少个Optimus将会投入使用呢？我认为目前我们还没有准备好讨论Optimus计划的细节，但我们将会定期在网上提供更新，这样您就能看到，一年前Optimus几乎只能行走，而现在它已经可以做瑜伽了。所以，再过几年，它可能还能跳芭蕾舞。听起来不错。
And the last question from investors is, neural net path planning represent a significant advance in capability and safety for FSD. What steps is Tesla taking to make this technology available outside the US? Yeah, our approach has been to try to get it, like the more places we try to make it work, the harder the problem is. So, the reason we don't do it in all countries simultaneously is that it would take much longer to make it work anywhere at all. So, that's why it's currently just North America. And also, for most parts of the world, you have to get approval before deploying things. Whereas in the US, you can deploy things at risk or at least take liability for your flight. So, it's where most countries require some sort of extensive approval program. So, we only want to go through that extensive approval program when we think it's kind of ready for prime time in that country.
投资者的最后一个问题是，神经网络路径规划代表了FSD能力和安全性的重大进展。特斯拉正在采取哪些措施使这项技术在美国以外的地区可用？是的，我们的方法是尽量多地尝试使其运行，问题就会变得更加困难。因此，我们不会同时在所有国家都实施，因为这将导致使其在任何地方都需要更长的时间才能使其运行。所以，目前只在北美实施。另外，在世界上大部分地区，您必须获得部署之前的批准。而在美国，您可以冒险部署或者至少对您的飞行承担责任。所以，在大多数国家都要求进行一些广泛批准程序。因此，我们只希望在认为该国家的市场准备就绪时，才会进行这个广泛批准程序。
I apologize, it's not out in those countries, but we keep in many ways to make it better. It needs to drive such that it exceeds the even unsupervised, significantly exceeds the probability of injury of a human. It's significantly better. It's a lower probability of injury than a human by far. I think we're tracking to that point very quickly. Obviously, in the past, I've been overly optimistic about this. The reason I've been overly optimistic is that the progress tends to sort of look like a log curve, which is that you have rapid initial improvements and that if you were to extrapolate that rapid, fairly linear rate of improvement, you get to self-driving quickly, but then the rate of improvement curves over logarithmically as soft as the asymptote. That's not happened several times. I would characterize that progress in real world AI as a series of stacked log curves. I think that's also true in other parts of AI, like LLMs and whatnot, series of stacked log curves. Each log curve gets higher than the last one, so if you keep stacking them, if you keep stacking logs, eventually you get to have a stay. Thank you.
抱歉，在那些国家它还没有推出，但我们在许多方面都在努力改进。它需要以超出甚至无人监督的程度来驾驶，明显超出了人类受伤的可能性。它的安全性明显更好，远远低于人类的受伤概率。我认为我们正在迅速接近这一点。显然，在过去，我对此过于乐观。之所以过于乐观，是因为进展往往呈现出对数曲线的形态，即最初会有快速的改进，如果将这种快速而相对线性的改进速度继续延伸，就可以迅速实现自动驾驶，但然后改进速度会逐渐趋近于对数曲线的渐近线。这已经发生过几次。我认为真实世界的人工智能进展可以描述为一系列重叠的对数曲线。我认为在其他人工智能领域，比如LLM（语言模型）等，也存在一系列重叠的对数曲线。每个对数曲线都比前一个更高，所以如果不断叠加它们，最终将实现目标。谢谢。
Let's now go to Adelis Questions. The first question comes from Will Stein from Truist. Will, please go ahead and unmute yourself. Great. Thanks so much for taking my question and thanks for all the updates today. We learned earlier on the call, it sounds like you don't think the truck will ramp to significant volume until its third year of production. Should we have a similar anticipation for the ramp of the next gen platform or is there any reason that we should be maybe more optimistic or pessimistic about the ramp profile there? Thank you. Yeah, I mean, to be clear, it's not really the third year of production. It's kind of like the 18th month of production is roughly, I guess. So it's just that they happen to, it'll happen, it's that the, it starts this year, spans next year and gets to 2025. So technically there are three calendar years in there, but there's actually only 18 months, not three years. That would be very disappointed if it took us, and that would be shocking if it took us three years. But 18 months from initial deliveries to have to reach volume and reach prosperity was an immense, I can't tell you how the blood sweat and tears level required to achieve that is just staggering. I've been through it many times. And then here we go again. Similar path for the next gen platform? I mean, there's like unique complexity to cyber. Yeah, I mean, cyber truck is speaking of speed up.
现在让我们来说说阿德利斯的问题。第一个问题来自特鲁伊斯特（Truist）的威尔·斯坦（Will Stein）。威尔，请解除静音。非常好，谢谢你回答我的问题，也感谢你今天的更新。我们之前在通话中了解到，听起来你认为这款卡车在第三年才会达到重要的产量。对于下一代平台的产量上升，我们应该有相似的预期吗？还是有什么原因让我们对此持乐观或悲观的态度？谢谢。是的，我是说，并不是真的需要三年的生产时间。大致上说，是在生产的第18个月，我猜是这样。因此，它刚好开始于今年，延续到明年，并进入2025年。技术上来说，这其中确实有三个日历年，但实际上只有18个月，而不是三年。如果我们需要三年的时间，我会非常失望，而且如果确实需要三年，那会令人震惊。但在从初始交付到达到产量和繁荣的18个月内，需要付出巨大的汗水和努力，我无法形容这个过程的艰辛程度。我经历过很多次这样的过程，现在我们又要开始了。对于下一代平台来说，会有类似的路径吗？我的意思是，Cyber Truck具有独特的复杂性。是的，我是说，对于Cyber Truck而言，个速度确实很快。
Yeah, I mean, we dug our own grave with cyber trucks. You know, nobody, generally, everybody dictates they're great better than themselves. And so, you know, it is, it is, it is, you know, cyber trucks, one of those, one of those special products that comes along only once in a long while. And special products that come along once in a long while are just incredibly difficult to bring to market, to reach volume, to be prosperous. It's fundamental to the nature of the newness. So now the sort of high volume, low cost, smaller vehicle is actually much more conventional. In terms of like the technologies we're putting into it, we didn't have to invent how to then full hard stainless steel or that mega 9,000 ton castings or the largest hot stamping in the world or new. Yeah. So, I think it will be quite a pastram. So, as I was saying, we're doing everything possible to simplify that vehicle in order to achieve a units per minute level that is unheard of in the auto industry. Yeah, I mean, the same location makes it easier to automate. It also makes it lower cost. Yeah, in terms of lower cost.
是的，我的意思是，我们用电动卡车挖了自己的坟墓。你知道，一般来说，没有人能比自己更好地界定他们有多好。所以，你知道吧，电动卡车是那种很少出现一次的特别产品之一。而出现一次的特别产品很难进入市场，达到规模，取得成功。这是新产品的本质所决定的。所以现在，那种产量大、成本低、更小型的车辆实际上更加常规。就我们投入其中的技术而言，我们不需要发明全硬不锈钢或9000吨铸件或世界上最大的热冲压技术等。是的。所以，我认为这将是一次革命。正如我刚才说的，我们正在尽一切可能简化这款车辆，以实现汽车行业从未听说过的每分钟生产数量。是的，同一地点使自动化变得更容易，并且降低成本。在成本方面也是如此。
Yeah. This is where it will be cool, but it's utilitarian. It's not meant to be familiar with Owen Magic. It's an easy way to be. It will be so beautiful, but it's a utilitarian. It's a utility. That's not 14 inches of travel. It's a suspension. Yeah, it's an example. Yeah. So, I mean, the Cybertruck has a lot of bells and whistles. All right. Thank you very much. Let's go to Pierre Ferragout from U Street Research. Hey, can you hear me? Yes. Yes. Hey, I have a first like a follow up question on the FSD and pricing and adoption. So, I agree with you that as FSD improves, we should see its value increasing, but I guess like the ultimate value of FSD, which is to be able to handle like a robot taxi is not going to necessarily interest everybody and you have a bit of a degraded version that would be like a chauffeur service where the car drives by itself, but you still have to be in the car and around. And then there is like the hands-on, eyes-on version of the service. And I guess, you know, there should be like much lower cost, lower future kind of that the violence of the service that could have a very large penetration on your install base and more expensive one that would remain at the lower penetration level. So, I'm just wondering if you're taking that.
是的。这将是很酷的地方，但它是实用的。它并不意味着要和Owen Magic熟悉起来。这是一种简单的方式。它将是如此美丽，但它是实用的。它是一种实用工具。它不是14英寸的行程。它是一种悬架。是的，这是一个例子。是的。所以，我的意思是，Cybertruck有很多花里胡哨的东西。好的。非常感谢。让我们来看一下来自U Street Research的Pierre Ferragout。嘿，你能听到我说话吗？是的。是的。嘿，我首先有一个关于FSD（全自动驾驶）以及定价和采用率的问题。所以，我同意您的观点，随着FSD的改进，它的价值应该会增加，但是我猜终极价值的FSD，也就是能够处理像机器人出租车这样的事情的能力，并不一定会吸引所有人，而你们也有一种降级版本，就是能够自动驾驶，但你仍然需要在车上附近。然后还有一种需要手脚并用的版本。我想知道你对此有何看法。
And last but not least, like the simplest version of FSD are available and are going to work from a technical perspective probably before like the ultimate robot taxi version can work if ever. And so, I'm wondering how you take that into account in how you're thinking like the financial contribution of FSD over time and whether you could evolve your pricing along that kind of tiers to increase adoption.
最后但同样重要的是，最简单的FSD版本已经可用，并且从技术角度来看，可能在像终极机器人出租车版本能够工作之前。因此，我想知道您在如何考虑FSD的财务贡献以及是否可以根据这些不同层次的发展来调整您的定价，以促进采用。
Yeah, I mean, for the autonomous vehicle, I think you're sort of the economics of the autonomous vehicle, our truly astounding in a positive way. You look at past vehicles today, they only get about 10 to 12 hours of usage per week. That's, you know, if you drive an hour and a half a day on average, that's roughly 10 hours a week out of 168 hours. And then there's also, you're going to have parking and insurance. You got to take care of the car. It's like there's a lot of overhead. So, I mean, yeah, it's like the economics of the system aren't just insanely positive if given that the car, like all of the cars were making and have made for a while, we believe a capable of full autonomy. So, then if you're able to say, increase the utility of that car by a factor of five, which slowly means that you've been used for maybe 50 hours a week out of 168. So, just don't notice your source, that source seems less than the third of the hours of the week already. It is doing something useful. You've increased the value of that by by five, but it still costs the same. Like you have something, then we're a hardware company with software magic. Here, do you have a follow up?
是的，我的意思是，对于自动驾驶汽车来说，从经济角度来看，你们的表现真的是令人惊讶的正面。看看以往的车辆，它们每周只能使用大约10到12个小时。也就是说，如果平均每天开车一个半小时，每周大约开车10个小时，而每周总共有168个小时。此外，还需要考虑停车和保险等问题。你必须照顾好汽车，涉及到很多额外开销。所以，如果能够将这辆汽车的效用提高五倍，也就意味着它每周可以使用50个小时而不是原来的10个小时。这样一来，它已经相当于每周工作了不到三分之一的时间，发挥了一定的作用。你们已经将其价值提高了五倍，但成本仍然相同。就像我们是一个硬件公司带有软件魔力一样。你还有跟进问题吗？
Yes, I have a key for the comment on a different topic for you. If that's okay, it's about like your gross margin in the quad, or could you give us a sense of like in how the gross margin evolved sequentially, how much was the impact of idle costs, how much was the sequential benefit that you imagine of production ramping at the Berlin and Austin. Then I saw this massive jump in the energy storage, very strong positive surprise. So, if you can give us the background on that and tell us how you should think of a Zagos margin going forward.
是的，我有一条关于另一个话题的评论的关键信息供您参考。如果可以的话，这个话题涉及您在四季度的毛利率，或者您能让我们对毛利率的顺序变化有一个概念吗？空置成本对毛利率的影响有多大？您预计柏林和奥斯汀工厂的生产规模扩大将带来多少顺序变化的好处？然后我注意到能源存储方面出现了巨大的增长，这是一个非常积极的惊喜。所以，如果您能告诉我们关于这一背景的信息，并告诉我们如何预计未来的Zagos利润率会发展，那就太好了。
Thanks for that question. In terms of you have a few different aspects of your question. So, if I just look at from Q3 perspective, obviously factory idle time had an impact. It did impact by, I mean, I won't give you the exact percentage, but it had decent impact for the quarter. When you look at the other pieces which we're trying to do, we did see certain of our other factories ramping up pretty well. They actually contributed pretty well to the margin for this quarter. In fact, one of the factories came pretty close to in terms of per unit costs to where we are for another established factory which is Fremont. So, that was a positive in the quarter. When it comes to energy margins, you know, megapack deployment was the key driver there. That product has done well. I mean, on the Costco also we've been able to do a lot there. But I do want to caution that megapack deployments are a bit lumpy. So, yes, we had a great quarter of this period. But depending upon where we are trying to deploy that product in different markets, you would see periods where there would be downward pressure on deployment because of us trying to get the product to that back-place where it was.
谢谢你的问题。就你的问题有几个不同的方面来看。所以，如果我只从第三个问题的角度来看，很明显，工厂的停机时间对其产生了影响。虽然我不会给你一个确切的百分比，但它对这个季度有相当大的影响。当你看到我们所做的其他方面时，我们确实看到我们的其他一些工厂的产能正在很好地增长。事实上，它们在这个季度对利润率做出了很大贡献。实际上，其中一家工厂在单位成本方面已经接近了我们另一家成熟工厂弗里蒙特。所以，这是季度的一个积极因素。而谈到能源利润率，电池储能产品的推广是关键驱动因素。这个产品做得很好。此外，我们在Costco方面也取得了很多成就。但我想要提醒大家，电池储能项目的推广有时会有不稳定性。所以，是的，我们在这个季度表现很出色。但是根据我们努力将该产品推广到不同市场的位置，你会看到在部署方面可能存在下行压力的时期，因为我们试图将产品运送到合适的位置。
Yeah, product in transit. Yes.
是的，产品正在运输中。是的。
Okay. Thank you very much. Let's go to roadlash from Wolf Research. Rob, feel free to unmute yourself. Thanks.
好的，非常感谢。我们一起去参加Wolf Research的Roadlash活动吧。Rob，请随意解除静音。谢谢。
Really nice to see the rate of vehicle cost improvement despite the downtime that you took. You've taken now about $2,000 out of the average vehicle costs over the past year. Can you give us maybe a sense of the rate of improvement that you see from the changes that you alluded to, the factory changes you alluded to? Is there a way maybe to convey the speed of improvement on your existing product from here and then related to that? Can you share the timing of your next gen that the lower priced product that you talked about earlier this year?
很高兴看到您在停产期间，车辆成本的改善率如此出色。过去一年中，您已经节省了平均车辆成本约2000美元。您能否给我们一个关于您所提到的工厂变革的改善速度的概念？是否有办法传达您现有产品的改善速度以及与此相关的内容？您能否分享一下您提到的今年早些时候所说的价格更低的下一代产品的计划时间？
Yeah. So, just in terms of product margins, there are lots of puts and takes when you look at this. There are certain things which we control and there are certain things which we don't control. We expect that we'll get some benefits from our cost reduction efforts, which are on the way. On the other hand, we just finished our factory of rates late in Q3. Some of these factors are still in the early ramp phase in Q4. We're still not up to where we want those factors to be. So, they'll impact in the near term. Plus, like Elon mentioned, we're going to be ramping Cybertruck, which is going to be another head when which we're dealing with. On top of all, there's overall uncertainty in the microeconomic environment, which even makes it harder to predict precisely as to where we land. But, yes, this is something which it's an evolving thing which we're observing every day and reacting to it on a daily basis.
是的，就产品利润率而言，当你考虑这一点时会有很多的得失。有一些事情是我们可以控制的，也有一些事情是我们无法控制的。我们预计我们的成本降低努力会带来一些好处，这正在进行中。另一方面，在第三季度末我们刚刚完成了我们的工厂建设。其中一些因素在第四季度仍处于初期阶段。我们还没有达到我们希望达到的水平。所以，它们将在近期产生影响。此外，正如埃隆提到的，我们还将推出Cybertruck，这将是另一个我们正在应对的难题。另外，整体的宏观经济环境的不确定性使得准确预测我们的结果变得更加困难。但是，是的，这是一件我们每天都在观察并根据情况做出反应的不断发展的事情。
I would just say that on the cost reduction efforts, like we are not, we are unflagging in our pursuit of additional cost downs for 2024. We do have a good pipeline of them and work on both the engineering side and the factory operation side. Our intention is to maintain or exceed the trend that you saw. We're trying as hard as we possibly can.
我只是想说，在成本削减方面，我们对于在2024年进一步降低成本的努力是毫不松懈的。我们已经有一份良好的计划，并在工程和工厂运营两方面进行着工作。我们的意图是保持或超过你所见到的趋势。我们正在竭尽全力。
The timing of the next gen product. Can you share that? I'm not at this time.
下一代产品的时间安排，你可以分享一下吗？我目前还不知道。
Okay. And just as a follow up, obviously, price is also a driver of demand, but that's obviously not happening in a vacuum. And you mentioned that, I think you mentioned at some point during this call that you're also maybe hitting a law of large numbers on some of your products. Can you just share how you're thinking about price elasticity just at this point and this macro environment and any thoughts along those lines?
好的。作为进一步的补充，显然，价格也是需求的一个推动因素，但这显然不是在真空中发生的。你提到过，我想你在这个电话中的某个时候提到过，你的一些产品可能也面临着数量规模的限制。你能否分享一下你在当前的宏观环境下如何看待价格弹性，以及你对这方面的任何想法？
I think that this very significant price elasticity, I mean, to totally frank, if I car class the same as a rev board, nobody would buy a rev board. Or at least that very unlikely too. It's worth noting that a lot of these incentives, like the tax credit or not, but they're actually very difficult for the average person to access because most people do not have 10 grand for even 75 dollar, burning a hole in their bank account. Large number of people are living paycheck to paycheck and with a lot of debt, like a credit card debt, more debt. So, yeah, that's reality for most people. It's sometimes difficult for people who are high income owners and I'd say high would be like, somebody who's earning over 200,000 dollars a year to understand what life is like for someone who is earning 50 or 60 or 70,000 dollars a year, which is most people. So, so they'd like for a lot of people like these tax credits just, they can't front 75 dollar for in 18 months or even six months to get for the tax credit and they actually don't, it's okay to even have that, then I'm sorry, I would call it taxes. So, it's really just, the vast majority of people is how much money they have to pay immediately and how much per month, that's it. I think it's tough right there. And that card is still much more expensive than a wrap-up when you look at it that way.
我认为这个价格弹性非常重要，说实话，如果我把汽车分类和电动滑板一样，没有人会购买电动滑板。或者至少很不可能。值得注意的是，很多这些激励措施，像税收抵免之类的，对普通人来说实际上非常难以获得，因为大多数人没有10000美元，甚至没有75美元让他们抓狂的存款。很多人每月只能凭工资为生，而且还有很多债务，比如信用卡债务，更多的债务。所以，是的，对大多数人来说，这是现实。对于那些高收入者来说有时候也很难理解那些年薪只有5万、6万或7万美元的人的生活是怎样的，而这样的人占大多数。所以对于很多人来说，这些税收抵免就像是根本无法付得起的费用，他们甚至不介意有这种税收抵免，我不如说这应该算作税收。所以，对于绝大多数人来说，他们关心的只是要立即支付多少钱，以及每月要支付多少钱。我觉得这个就是问题所在。就从这个角度看，这个汽车比起普通汽车来说还是非常昂贵的。
Yeah, one other thing which I'll add, when you look at car buying in general, we're trying to get to the next set of EV adapters. Not an EV adapter, just next, who wants a great car? Exactly. It's not a, you know, so now you get these like, you know, honestly, I'd say it's like somewhat correlates with the why doesn't everyone work from home crowd? I'm like, I mean, this is like some real mariachiun at vibes from people that say why does everyone work from home? Like, what about all the people that have to come to the factory and fill the cars? What about all the people that have to go to the restaurant and make your food and deliver your food? It's like, what are you talking about? You, I mean, how detached from reality does it work from home crowd have to be? While they take advantage of all those who do, who cannot work from home? So, I mean, you have to say, like, why did I sleep in the factory so many times? Because it mattered. So, um, so I just can't emphasize how important cost it is. It's not an optional thing for most people. It is a necessary thing. We have to make our cars more affordable so people can buy it and I, you know, I keep harping on this interest thing, but I mean, it's just, it just raises the cost of the car.
是的，还有一件事，当你看整体汽车购买时，我们正在试图迈向下一批电动汽车适配器。不是一个电动汽车适配器，只是下一个，谁想要一辆好车呢？确切地说，这不是...所以现在你会遇到这样的情况，你知道，老实说，我想这有点与为什么不是每个人都在家里工作的人群有所相符合。我是说，这就像是一些真正的从来没有接触过现实的人在说为什么不是每个人都在家工作？那那些还得去工厂填装车辆的人呢？那些还得去餐厅制作食物和送餐的人呢？这就像是在说什么？你知道，那些能够在家工作的人受益于所有不能在家工作的人。所以，我是说，你就得说，为什么我会在工厂里睡那么多次？因为这是重要的。所以，我真的无法强调成本有多么重要。对于大多数人来说，这不是可选的事情，而是必要的事情。我们必须让我们的汽车更加经济实惠，以便人们能够购买，我知道我一直在强调这个利息问题，但是我是说，它只会增加汽车的成本。
I mean, we're looking at an internal analysis, which I don't know, we think is more or less on track, that when you look at the cost or the price reductions we've made in, say, the Model Y, and you compare that to how much people's monthly payment has risen due to interest rates. The price of the Model Y is almost unchanged. If you factor in the Kingdom then trust it. Yes, which is, this is what I'm trying to say, the thing that matters is the monthly, it's, it's, it's how much money do you have to put down, and do they literally have that in the bank account or will it check that? And then, well, what is the monthly payment? And it doesn't matter how, if that monthly payment is principal interest or whatever, it's just a number and that number has to not cause their bank account to go negative. That's it.
我是说，我们正在进行内部分析，我不知道，我们认为它或多或少是正确的，当你看到我们在Model Y上所做的成本或价格削减，并将其与由于利率上涨而导致的人们的月供进行比较时，Model Y的价格几乎没有变化。如果你考虑王国的话，就相信它吧。是的，这就是我想说的，重要的是每月支付额，就是说他们需要付多少钱，他们在银行账户中是否有足够的钱，或者是否会被拒绝支付。然后，还有每月付款金额是多少。无论这个金额是本金还是利息，都只是一个数字，而这个数字不应导致他们的银行账户变为负数。就是这样。
So, you know, going from near zero interest rates to the current very high interest rates, the actual monthly payment is basically the same. It's just a bunch more of it is going to interest. And there are some incremental challenges beyond that, which is the difficulty of getting credit at all has increased. And so, the number of people who simply cannot get credit, period, even if they've got a job and everything's solid that, you know, the banks are, you know, a little gun shy on handing out credit, given that a bunch of them kick the bucket earlier this year.
所以，你知道的，从接近零利率到目前的非常高利率，实际每月付款基本上是一样的。只是更多的钱用于支付利息。除此之外，有一些增量挑战，就是现在更难获得信用。所以，有很多人根本无法获得信用，即使他们有工作和一切都很稳定，银行也有点不敢轻易放出信贷，因为今年早些时候有一些银行破产了。
Yeah, there's also just fewer options, even if they plan that credit, there's a few banks together because like, this your banks will exist. Well, if your bank does not exist, you have to establish a relationship with a new bank. And, you know, so a lot of regional banks are, you know, died and I mean, even credit suites, I mean, geez, that was a shocker, you know, you know, a 160 year old, if Swiss institution that doesn't exist anymore. That's mind blowing. And I think there's still quite a few shoots to drop on the bad credit situation. I mean, commercial real estate obviously is in a terrible shape. You know, credit card debt has been rising significantly. The credit card interest rates are userious rates over 20% interest rates, meaning like, which over time is just becomes of the extremely punishing because if somebody's paying 20% interest on the credit cost, it means they cannot pay them off. And you cannot pay them off and you're still improving interest to 20%. That's headed to a bad place.
是的，选择更少了，即使他们计划提供信贷，也只有少数几家银行可以提供信贷，因为像你的银行这样的银行将不存在。如果你的银行不存在，你必须与新的银行建立关系。而且，你知道，所以很多地区银行都已经消失了，我是说，即使是瑞士信贷，天哪，那真是个震撼，你知道，这是一个已经存在160年的瑞士机构，现在却不存在了，这让人难以置信。我认为在糟糕的信用情况下还有很多问题有待解决。商业房地产显然处于糟糕的状态。信用卡债务显著增加。信用卡利率是荒谬的，超过20%的利率，这意味着随着时间的推移，情况变得非常惩罚性，因为如果有人支付20%的利息，意味着他们无法偿还。如果你无法偿还并且利息仍然提高到20%，那将是一个糟糕的情况。
Thank you. Let's go to the next question from George from KindaCords. Thank you for taking my question. Just to focus on the cost per vehicle, you know, coming down in future quarters as you discussed in your written remarks, I'm curious as to what the levers of that could be. Is it more scale, more factor utilization? Is it material cost reductions? Are there things like gigacasting? I mean, you just kind of give us some data points to give us confidence that that's going to come down over time.
谢谢。让我们继续来自KindaCords的George的下一个问题。感谢您回答我的问题。关于每辆车的成本，在您之前的讲话中提到将在未来几个季度降低，我想知道实现这一目标的主要方法有哪些。是扩大规模，提高因素利用率吗？是物料成本降低吗？还有像巨型铸造这样的东西吗？就像给我们一些数据点，使我们相信这将随着时间的推移会下降。
And if I can sneak one in, please, there are press reports. And I know how perilous it is to believe some of these. But they say that you've included radar as an option in some model wise in China. And I just hear to ask if that's true. And if so, why? Thank you. We've not included radar. We have radar as a Tesla designed radar as an experiment in the model SNX. That's it. We'll see whether that experiment is worth it. But there are no plans to integrate radar into 3 and Y. Just as humans drive well, and in fact, an excellent human driver can drive with amazing safety simply with their eyes. The car will far exceed the average human safety just with vision far, far, far. Because the car is looking in all directions at once. We don't have eyes in the back of my head. The computer never gets tired and never gets distracted, get drunk, hopefully. Radar is, you know, it's not, what really matters is how much does it affect the probability of an accident. And in order for the radar to be effective, you have to be able to do radar-only braking. You have to do actions that are radar-only. Otherwise, you get this ambiguation problem between vision and radar. That's why we actually turned off the radar in cars historically that we had shipped it. All three and Y used to have radar, but we turned it off. Because the radar actually generated more noise than signal. Now, the Tesla design radar is a high-resolution radar that has some potential to be useful that the jury is still very much out on whether that is in fact the case.
如果我能插一脚，请问，关于有新闻报道。我知道相信这些报道可能是多么危险。但他们说你们在中国的某些车型中将雷达作为选项加入了其中。我只是想来询问一下这是否属实。如果是的话，为什么这样做呢？谢谢。我们没有将雷达纳入其中。我们在Model SNX中只是将雷达作为特斯拉设计的实验性雷达而已。我们将看看这个实验是否值得。但是在3和Y车型中没有整合雷达的计划。就像人类驾驶一样出色，事实上，一个优秀的人类驾驶员只需单纯依靠视力就能实现非常安全的驾驶。车辆通过远远超过人类的视觉能力来确保安全，它能同时朝各个方向观察。我们没有后脑勺。计算机永远不会疲劳或分心，也不会喝醉。雷达，你知道，真正重要的是它对事故的发生概率有多大影响。为了使雷达发挥作用，你必须能够仅通过雷达进行制动。你必须进行仅雷达才能完成的动作。否则，视觉和雷达之间就会产生模糊问题。这就是为什么我们实际上关闭了我们之前发货的车辆上的雷达。所有的3和Y车型之前都有雷达，但我们已将其关闭。因为雷达实际上产生了更多的噪音而非信号。现在，特斯拉设计的雷达是一种高分辨率雷达，有些潜力可用，关于它是否实际有效，判断仍然存在争议。
On the cost question, I guess from the vehicle side, like, you know, as Drew mentioned earlier, we are always trying to engineer our products to be cheaper to make and more efficient to make. That comes obviously on the engineering side as we come up with new innovations, but as well on the supply chain side with our partners, we work with them to automate some of their lines and move their, you know, bottlenecks and their high costs as well. On the logistics side, getting parts of the factory, it's not, it's not equal. It's not like a one thing that you have to, you have to attack cost everywhere. And we do it ruthlessly at all times. Operations efficiency, all of the above.
在成本问题上，我想从车辆方面来看，就像Drew之前提到的，我们始终试图通过工程设计使我们的产品更便宜、更高效。这显然在工程方面，我们推出新的创新时就会有所体现，同时也涉及供应链方面，我们与合作伙伴合作，帮助他们自动化一些生产线，解决瓶颈和高成本问题。在物流方面，将工厂的零部件运输是不平等的。并非所有地方都需要去降低成本。我们始终无情地进行运营效率的提升，包括以上所述的各个方面。
Yeah, I mean, I would say there's a whole long list of things which we are chasing. We internally call it the cost attack. We're literally going line by line and saying, how can we make it better? And it's a grind. The grind line. It's a game of pennies. It's like game of thrones, but pennies.
是的，我的意思是，我们正在追逐一整个长长的事项清单。我们内部称之为成本攻击。我们确切地逐行检查，问自己，我们如何能让它变得更好？而这是一项艰苦的工作。就像是压榨一分一毫的游戏。有点像《权力的游戏》，但都是几分钱的。
I mean, first approximation, if you've got a $40,000 car and roughly $10,000 items in that car, that means each thing on average cost four bucks. So in order to get the cost down and save at 10%, you have to get $0.40 out of each part on average. It is a game of pennies. We play it willingly. Yeah, we've done it many, many times.
我的意思是，初略估计，如果你的车价值4万美元，车里大约有1万美元的物品，那就意味着平均每样东西花费4美元。所以为了降低成本并节省10％，你每个零件平均需要节省0.40美元。这是一场角分之战。我们乐意参与。是的，我们做过很多次。
And even something as simple as like a sticker, like there's too many stickers internally in the car that nobody ever sees. There's something as simple as a QR code. You might think, well, putting a QR code on part one, I just put them on there. It's like, well, are we actually going to use that QR code? Also, painting.
甚至像贴纸这样简单的东西，汽车内部太多贴纸其实没人看得到。就像简单的二维码一样，你可能会想，好吧，把二维码放在零部件上，只是随便放上去而已。然而，我们真的会使用那个二维码吗？还有，绘画。
Yeah, exactly. And then, inevitably, sometimes the QR code doesn't go on properly, or you can't read it properly. And it stops the line for more than a penny.
是的，完全正确。然后，不可避免地，有时二维码无法正确贴在上面，或者无法正确读取。这会导致生产线停下来，损失超过一分钱。
Yeah, absolutely. So, there's chipping away with it. I mean, it is trying to, it is, it does feel like digging a tunnel with a spoon at times. Very much escaping prison.
是的，绝对没错。所以，这是在不断地减少问题。我的意思是，有时候它就像是用勺子挖隧道一样艰难。非常像逃离监狱。
Yeah. You know, on top of it, like we said, you know, we did some factory upgrades. So we expect volume to go up. That would also bring some savings from higher production. But then, on the flip side, we're going to be ramping a new product like Cybertruck, which we talked about. So, yeah. So those are the real potential things that we are working for. Yeah, but there's not like some accidentally, you know, some brick of gold that we've gotten to go up, unfortunately.
是的。你知道的，除此之外，就像我们说的，我们进行了一些工厂升级。所以我们期望产量会增加。这也会带来更高的生产节省。但是相反地，我们将会推出一款新产品，就像我们谈论过的Cybertruck。所以，是的。这些是我们正在努力的真正潜在的事情。但是很遗憾，我们并没有像意外发现一块金砖那样。
And it's, you know, we're trying to be very rigorous about improving the quality and capability of the car, because, yeah, it's like, any fool can reduce the cost of a car by making it worse. And just, you know, deleting functionality and capability. And that's the best I've called this sort of any fool. Like, if you want to lose weight, and you said, well, I need to lose whatever 15 pounds, right away, well, you could top your arm off. But then you're sitting with one arm, you're still fat. So, it's sort of like, yeah, I got to work out it. Yeah, you actually have to eat less food and work out. That's the actual way. And doctors, yeah, so, you know, super fun, because we're just delicious. And personally, I'm not a huge, but I don't love working out. I know some people do, I wish I did, but I don't. Unless moving the mouse consists of working out in which case I love moving the thought.
这是我们为了提高汽车的质量和性能而非常严谨的工作，因为，你知道的，任何傻瓜都可以通过降低汽车质量来降低成本。只要删减功能和性能就行了。而这就是我称之为“任何傻瓜”的最佳例子。就像如果你想减肥，你可能会想，“哦，我需要立刻减去15磅”，那你可以砍掉手臂。但是此时你只剩下一只手臂，而你依然胖。所以，你需要付出努力，需要少吃食物并进行锻炼才是真正的方法。而医生们都知道，我们这样做很有趣，因为我们只享受美食。就我个人而言，我不是一个喜欢锻炼的人。我知道有些人喜欢，我也希望我能喜欢，但我不喜欢。除非移动鼠标也算是锻炼，那我就喜欢移动思维了。
All right, let's go to Colin Langam from Wells Fargo. Colin, can you unmute yourself? Oh, sorry about that. You hear me now? Yeah, I'm good. Thanks for your questions. You said in a commentary that you're not going full tilt on the plant in Mexico until there's signs that the economy is strong. Can you continue out of 50% Kager without that plant? And where would that come from? And any color on what you mean, sort of not going full tilt? Could that plant get delayed indefinitely or we're talking about?
好的，让我们听听富国银行的科林·兰格姆（Colin Langam）的意见。科林，你能把麦克风打开吗？哦，对不起，听得到我说话了吗？是的，我可以听到。谢谢你的问题。你在评论中提到，在经济强劲的迹象出现之前，你不会全力投入到墨西哥的计划中。那么即使没有这个工厂，你能够维持50%的复合增长率吗？这个增长将来自哪里？另外，你提到的“不全力投入”是什么意思？这个工厂会被无限期地推迟吗？
No, we're definitely making the factory in Mexico. We're feel very good about that. We put a lot of effort into looking at different locations and feel very good about that location. And we are going to build a factory there. It's going to be great. The question is really just one of timing.
不，我们肯定会在墨西哥建厂。我们对此感到非常满意。我们花了很多精力来考察不同的地点，对那个地方感觉非常好。我们将在那里建造一座工厂，而且会非常棒。问题实际上只是关于时间安排而已。
And I'm just going to be a broken record on the on the entrance front. It's just interest rates have to come down. Like if if if interest rates keep rising, you just fundamentally reduce portability. It is just the same as right, increasing the price of the car. So I just don't have visibility into it. If you can tell me what the interest rates are, I can tell you when, you know, when we should we should both factory, we're going to bullet and I think we'll we'll start the initial phases of construction next year.
我只是对进入前方的问题反复强调。利率必须下降。如果利率继续上升，就会根本上减少可携性。这就像是提高汽车价格一样。所以我对此没有清晰的了解。如果你能告诉我利率是多少，我就可以告诉你什么时候我们应该开始工厂的建设，并且我认为我们将在明年开始建设的初期阶段。
But I am still somewhat scarred by 2009 when if General Motors and Chrysler were in bankrupt. So well, that's now 14 years ago. It's that that is seared into my mind with a branding iron. Because, you know, Tesla was just hanging on by thread during that entire time. And with it, I mean, we closed off of financing around 2008 on at 6 p.m. December 24th, Christmas Eve. And if we had not closed that financing round, we would have bounced payroll two days after Christmas. So we we actually closed that round on the last hour of the last day that it was possible. Trustful to say the least. And then barely made it through 2009. So I'm like, I want to just I don't want to be going at top speed into uncertainty.
但是，我对2009年的事件仍然心有余悸，那时通用汽车和克莱斯勒陷入了破产。那已经是14年前的事情了。但那次经历仍然深深刻在我的脑海中。因为你知道，在那整个时期，特斯拉只是岌岌可危。我们在2008年的圣诞前夕，也就是12月24日晚上6点，才最终获得融资。如果没有完成这轮融资，我们在圣诞后的两天就无法支付员工工资。事实上，我们是在最后一天最后一个小时完成这轮融资的。可以说，信任程度可以说是最低的。然后我们勉强度过了2009年。所以我不想在不确定性中全速前进。
A lot of war is going on in the world, obviously, as well. So we have room here, like in King of Texas, you said, we still have it in this building. It's not full with Cybertrapt and Hawaii and, you know, there's plenty of growth opportunities still to have inside the building where our tomb already is. We also have 2000 acres here. There's also a bunch of that. We're actually only occupying a tiny corner of the land that we have. But, you know, we could technically do all the scaling. Let's read just here. So, that mean, personnel is our biggest challenge in that the greater Orson area only has, as generously the greater Orson area only has 2 million people. So people are moving here and they're willing to move here. But there is somewhat of a housing crisis. They got to look somewhere. So, so, I don't know. I mean, I just curious, like, I just I'm not saying things really bad. I'm just saying they might be.
世界上有很多战争正在进行，这是显而易见的。所以我们这里也有一些空间，就像在德克萨斯之王那样，你说过的，我们还在这栋建筑物中拥有一些空余空间。它并不充斥着网络陷阱和夏威夷之类的东西，你知道，在我们已经存在的建筑物内仍然有很多发展机会。我们还拥有2000英亩的土地。还有很多别的东西。实际上，我们只占据了这块土地中的一个小角落。但是，你知道，从技术上讲，我们可以进行一切扩张。让我们就在这里读一读吧。所以，这就是说，人员是我们最大的挑战，因为奥森大区只有200万人口，不伦不颉地说，奥森大区也只有2百万人口。人们正在搬到这里，他们也愿意搬到这里。但是住房危机确实存在。他们必须找个地方住。所以，所以，我不知道。我的意思只是好奇，我只是说事情可能会很糟糕。
And I think like like Tesla is an incredibly capable ship. But it is, but if, you know, we need to make sure like as if the macro economic conditions of stormy, you know, even if the best ship is still going to have top times, the weaker ships will sink. We're not going to sink, but you know, even a great ship in a storm has challenges. Now, that storm will apply to everyone, which starts and not just not just the auto industry, apply to everyone, I think. So, you know, apart from the necessary sort of staples like food and stuff, but, you know, so just, I don't know. If interest rates start coming down, we will accelerate.
我认为特斯拉就像一艘能力极强的船。但是，如果宏观经济条件不稳定的话，即使是最好的船也会遇到困难，而较弱的船只则会沉没。虽然我们不会沉没，但是即使在风暴中，一艘优秀的船只也会面临挑战。而这场风暴将会影响到所有人，不仅仅是汽车行业，我认为是普遍的。所以，除了食品等必需品之外，其他的事物也会受到影响。嗯，我不知道，如果利率开始下降，我们将会加速前进。
All right. I think it's good. It's good. It's good. Got any any any guesses on this? I, you know, I'd love to be less wrong. And I apologize if I'm perhaps more paranoid than I should be, because I might also be the case because I am I've PTSD from 2009, big time. And in 2017 through 19 or not picnic, either that was very tough going. So, you know, the auto industry is also so much cyclic. It's because there are people can't hesitate by a new car. And if there's uncertainty in the economy. So, so, you know, part companies do very well in good economic times, and they have, but don't do as well in tough economic times. So, it's just, you know, whereas if somebody's selling bread, then I think, you know, that people swing to have bread. Yeah. Yeah. You need bread. You free need for all the time, but you, car, you don't have to have bread. Especially if there are wars going on, and then that impacts your sentiment. Yeah. I mean, if people are reading about wars all over the world, if this, you know, playing in your car tends to not be fun of mine.
好的，我觉得这很好。很好，很好。你对此有没有任何猜测？你知道的，我希望自己能少一些错误。如果我过于多疑的话，我也向你道歉，因为可能是因为我从2009年开始，一直有创伤后应激障碍。而且从2017年到2019年也不好过，那段时间真是非常艰难。所以，你知道的，汽车行业也是如此循环性很强。因为有人可能会因为经济不确定性而不敢购买新车。所以，你知道的，某些公司在经济景气时期表现得非常好，他们确实也有这样做到，但在经济困难时期表现就不那么好了。所以，就像有人卖面包一样，我认为，你知道的，人们会选择有面包。是的，是的。你需要面包。你一直需要面包，但买车不是必须的。特别是如果战争正在进行，那会影响到你的心情。是的。我是说，如果人们到处读到关于世界各地发生战争的报道，那么在车里听音乐可能就不再有趣了。
All right. Unfortunately, that's all the time we have today. Thank you very much for all of your good questions, and we'll see you again in three months. Thank you very much. All right.
好的。不幸的是，今天我们只有这么多时间了。非常感谢你们提出的所有好问题，我们将在三个月后再见。非常感谢。好的。
Hey, everybody. Let's do some recapping in that call. Let me know if you guys can hear me. Okay. I'll give it a second here. Things try to get things into position. Let me know on the audio level if that's, if this is all right for you guys. And we'll talk about, yeah, let's talk about sounds good. Okay. Thanks. Hear you. Audio good. All right. Yeah. Let me know if the levels are okay. Just kind of guessing a bit here. All right. Well, I've seen a lot of comments. I've seen a lot of comments about people saying that the call was depressing. Yeah. I mean, obviously not the, if I had to line up my favorite earnings calls, this certainly would not be not be the tops.
大家好。在这个电话会议中，我们来回顾一下。如果你们能听到我，请告诉我一声。好的。我稍等一下，准备一下。如果这个音频级别对你们来说可以接受，请告诉我。我们将讨论一下，听起来不错。好的，谢谢。可以听到你。音频很好。好的。请告诉我音量是否适宜。我只是凭感觉猜测一下。好的。嗯，我看到了很多评论。很多人说这个电话会议让人沮丧。是的。很明显，如果我要排列我最喜欢的财报电话会议，这肯定不是最佳的选择。
I think this kind of extends what we had talked about. Hopefully you guys had seen the shareholder letter and their reaction to the financials and all that stuff. But I think this kind of carried forward what we had talked about during that recap, where on the vehicle capacity page, Tesla had talked about for Gigatexis for Gigabrelin, and then for Shanghai, all three of those factories Tesla gave comments about relatively slow ramp ups from here.
我认为这有点延续了我们之前讨论的话题。希望你们已经看到股东信函以及他们对财务报表等方面的反应。但是我认为这在新车产能方面延续了我们在回顾中谈到的内容，在特斯拉关于吉卡特克斯、吉加布林和上海三个工厂的车辆产能页面上，特斯拉谈到了从现在开始相对缓慢的增长速度。
So Berlin and Texas, they said, you know, slow ramps. And then for the Gigashang high, they said, you know, we're basically fully ramped for the time being. So I think what we heard from Elon here confirmed what we had sort of guessed at that point was that Tesla is taking their foot off the accelerator a bit in terms of production growth during this period of time, obviously higher interest rates than we've had for the last few years, still relative to historical interest rates.
据他们说，柏林和德克萨斯的扩产速度相对较慢。而对于Gigashang高产量，他们表示，目前我们基本上已经全面扩产。所以我认为，埃隆在这里所说的确实证实了我们之前猜测的情况，即特斯拉在这段时间内在产量增长方面有所放缓，显然与过去几年相比，利率上升，但仍然相对于历史利率较高。
Obviously there have been times in the past where it's been higher, but as Elon said, it is obviously impacting payments. And despite significant price cuts from Tesla, when you're financing a vehicle, like most people are doing, that's going to impact affordability. The EV tax credit obviously should be offsetting a significant portion of that in the United States, not necessarily internationally, obviously. However, as Elon pointed out, because it's not a point of sale credit right now, it's also non refundable credit right now. The eligibility for that and the impact of that is a little bit limited.
显然，在过去有过更高的价格，但正如埃隆所说，这显然正在影响付款。尽管特斯拉大幅降价，但大多数人会选择分期付款购买汽车，这将对购车能力产生影响。在美国，电动汽车税收抵免显然应该抵消其中相当一部分费用，但在国际上可能并不适用。然而，正如埃隆指出的，因为这不是一个现金销售点的抵免，也是一个不可退还的抵免。对于此的资格和影响是有限的。
So hopefully those things both improve a little bit heading into next year, even if we do see some reductions in credits. So hopefully those are, you know, positive factors. And hopefully we're also at the top of the interest rates. I mean, we've heard fed comments now about maybe pausing for a bit. So we seem to be getting closer. And I think the market's expectations are kind of indicating that right now too. So, you know, hopefully things are getting to a point where we're starting to change a bit in terms of the trajectory, which will be pretty potentially pretty meaningful.
希望这些方面在明年有所改善，即使我们可能会看到一些减少的信贷。希望这些都是积极的因素。并且希望我们的利率也能处于最高水平。我的意思是，我们现在听到了联邦储备的评论，可能会暂停一段时间。所以我们似乎越来越接近了。而且我认为市场的预期也在暗示着这一点。所以，希望事情正在逐渐发生改变，这将具有相当重要的意义。
So outside of that, I mean, I don't know that there's, you know, a whole lot that we learned that was kind of new on this call. Obviously, we got some details on Cybertruck, Elon talking about how this is going to be pretty difficult to ramp. We should have known that now for a while, obviously at the unveiling part of the pitch of Cybertruck was that this was going to be a little bit of an easier to produce vehicle because of how it's designed. But over time, that, you know, sort of narrative changed from Tesla.
除此之外，我觉得在这次通话中并没有太多新的东西。显然，我们了解了一些Cybertruck的细节，埃隆谈到了它的扩产可能会相当困难。很久以前我们就该知道了，因为Cybertruck的亮相时，揭示了它的设计将使其成为一款相对容易生产的车型。但随着时间的推移，特斯拉对Cybertruck的叙述也发生了改变。
And as there are a lot of new things with this, unsurprisingly, I think, you know, it's going to be a long time, it's going to be a long ramp to profitability as any new vehicle would be. So just want to keep in mind, especially next quarter as that starts to hit. I'm just going to kind of cycle through my notes here and we can go point by point because I know there's things in here.
由于涉及到很多新事物，无可否认的是，我认为，你懂的，从盈利能力的角度来看，需要更长的时间，就像任何一款新车一样。所以我希望谨记，特别是下个季度，当它开始产生影响时。我将会逐个点解释我的笔记，因为我知道其中有些要点。
Sorry for the audio dropping a couple times. That was on on Tesla's end on YouTube. Nothing I could do here. Sounded like maybe the X version of the audio for the interview or for the earnings call was okay. So I might have to switch to that as the feed next time we'll we'll see if that was okay. And we'll see what we missed if that did actually get captured. But again, apologies for that.
很抱歉音频中有几次掉线。那是特斯拉在YouTube方面的问题，我无能为力。听起来可能是采访或盈利电话的音频出了问题，所以下次可能需要切换到X版本的音频源来看看是否正常。如果有确实被记录下来的内容，我们就能知道错过了什么。再次对此表示道歉。
Alright. So just looking through here, you know, sort of opening comments, kind of stuff that we've all talked about either in the shareholder letter or prior to this in previous episodes or earnings calls. So Cybertruck, flying production, a difficult, difficult all stuff that we kind of know.
好的。所以在这里简单浏览一下，你知道的，一些开头的评论，我们都在股东信或之前的节目或财报电话中讨论过的东西。所以Cybertruck，飞行生产，一些我们都知道的困难，困难的事情。
I think I'm maybe I didn't quite understand or I couldn't quite hear or maybe it dropped a bit when they were talking about energy margins. We'll have to go back and review that. Obviously that was one of the real big highlights this quarter was energy margins going to 24%.
我想我可能没有完全理解，或者我可能没有听清楚，或者他们在谈论能源利润率时可能有一些遗漏。我们需要返回去重新审查一下。显然，能源利润率达到24%是本季度的真正亮点之一。
As Elon noted, that's their best margin business now with non X credit automotive gross margin coming in at like 16.3% I believe. But even including regulatory credits in the 18% range. So for mega pack to now be 24%. That's super, super exciting.
正如埃隆所指出的那样，这是他们目前利润最高的业务，非X信贷汽车毛利率达到了大约16.3%。但即使包括监管信贷在18%的范围内，Mega Pack现在却能达到24%。这非常令人兴奋。
Obviously that business continues to grow quickly. And right now Tesla's doing about 16 gigawatt hours annually, but they're ramping their production to 40 gigawatt hours just from their California facility. And then they'll also add the China facility as well and ramp that up to 80. So there's a lot of growth left in that business, which is exciting, especially as Elon's comments indicate, we're probably at a little bit of a plateau period now for Model Y and Model 3.
显然，这个业务正在持续快速增长。目前特斯拉每年生产约16千兆瓦时，但他们正加快生产速度，从加利福尼亚工厂增加到40千兆瓦时。然后他们还将在中国设施上增加产能，达到80千兆瓦时。因此，在这个业务中还有很大的增长空间，这非常令人兴奋，特别是考虑到埃隆的评论表明，Model Y和Model 3可能正处于一个小小的平台期。
Now obviously us and X have reached that for quite some time. So at least we've got a little bit to look forward to there with mega pack kind of continuing to drive some growth. As we wait for some next generation vehicles like Cybertruck, like semi like next generation vehicle, the lower cost vehicle to help drive growth again. And then obviously macroeconomic changes could contribute to that as well.
现在显然我们和X公司已经达到了这一点很长时间了。所以至少我们有一点可以期待巨型包装仍然能继续推动一些增长。当我们等待像Cybertruck、半挂车和下一代车辆这样的下一代车辆时，这些低成本车辆将有助于再次推动增长。显然，宏观经济变化也可能对此起到一定的贡献。
Let's see. So no answer on Cybertruck delivery isn't not surprised. Elon's never really ever given, and you know, a specific number like that. He always talks about things in terms of run rates. So basically saying they'll get to, you know, 5000 a week sometime in 2025, probably reaching that rate. That doesn't mean 250,000 produced in 2025. It just means, you know, reaching that rate sometimes in 20, sometime in 2025. And obviously on the earnings report letter, Dussell indicated greater than 125,000 as the production capacity. So I would, I would expect they're kind of initially ramping to that. And then continuing to ramp in sort of like a phase two way up to 5k a week. Again, in about 18 months.
让我们看看。所以对于Cybertruck交付没有答案并不让人惊讶。埃隆从来没有真正给出过一个具体的数字，你知道，像那样。他总是以运营率的方式谈论事情。所以基本上他是说他们将在2025年的某个时候达到每周5000辆的产能，可能会达到那个速度。这并不意味着2025年会生产25万辆。这只是指在2025年某个时候达到那个速度。显然在业绩报告信函中，杜塞尔表示生产能力超过125,000辆。所以我希望他们最初会逐步增加到那个产能，然后在大约18个月内继续逐步增加，达到每周5,000辆的速度。
4680 drew always list those stats off super quickly. So it's kind of hard to catch them. But he did say the production increased 40% quarter over quarter. I think that's actually not quite as rapid of growth as we'd seen in Q2. I think it was 80% if I remember correctly. But obviously that base is going to be significantly higher as off of those types of growth rates, annualized. That's still, you know, very strong. And then it sounds like they're going to be making probably the next step change sometime in early 2024. Drew mentioned that they've got four lines of 46 a production capacity under construction. I can't remember what face he quite said that they were in again, that was pretty quick. But target to start producing that in May 2024, which, you know, we're going to be there before we know it. So that'll be, I think, a pretty significant bump for 4680s.
4680是德鲁经常迅速列举的那些统计数据，所以很难捕捉到它们。但他确实说产量季度环比增长了40%。我认为，与我们在Q2看到的增长相比，这并不算是非常快速的增长。如果我没记错的话，我想是80%。但很显然，以这种增速为基础，年化后的基数将会显著增加。这仍然是非常强劲的。听起来他们可能会在2024年初进行下一次重大变革。德鲁提到他们正在建设四条46A生产线，并且我记不清他在哪个阶段说这个了，因为说得太快了。但计划在2024年5月开始生产，你知道的，我们会在不知不觉中就到那个时候了。所以这对于4680电池来说将是一个相当大的提升。
And hopefully that's the point in time where, you know, a lot of questions on the call about like, okay, cost reductions. How do we, how do we go from here? Is this trend that we're seeing going to continue in cost reductions on the average vehicle? One of the things that's going to drive that is obviously 4680s. That's been sort of artificially inflating cost of good sold per vehicle right now. As they do this, certainly once this phase two is ramped up, that's going to go from an economic drain to something that is hopefully positive. I think Drew maybe said something on a cost there that they're, you know, kind of working towards that, but still have improvements to make.
希望这就是那个时间点，你知道的，电话中有很多关于成本削减的问题，我们如何从这里开始？我们看到的这种成本削减趋势会继续下去吗？其中一个推动因素显然是4680电池。目前这种电池已经人为地提高了每辆车的成本销售价格。随着这个第二阶段的推进，它将从经济负担转变为有望产生积极效果的事情。我想德鲁在成本方面可能说了点什么，他们正在努力朝着这个目标努力，但仍然有改进的空间。
Cato, that's going to be their next generation sort of test facility. No, no big surprise on that right now. But they're kind of working on retooling it for the, presumably sort of like phase two cyber cell right now, which maybe that is, you know, aligned with their plans there for May, but maybe another generation after that.
Cato，那将是他们下一代的测试设施。目前这并不是什么大惊喜。但他们正在努力重新调整它，以适应预计的第二阶段网络安全中心，这也可能与他们五月份的计划相一致，但之后可能还会有另一代设备。
Berlin and Austin. So I mean, we've, we've kind of been talking about this now for a while when we got back, you know, if we go back to those reports about shifts and things like that that we've been hearing about, particularly for Berlin. At the time we were getting those rumors, you know, I made the call out that I wouldn't be too surprised if Tesla is rather than focusing on continuing to ramp up production more focused on cost of production for their current, you know, level of production. So I think that's where we're at, you know, Austin, a little bit different.
柏林和奥斯汀。我的意思是，我们已经谈论这个问题有一段时间了，当我们回来的时候，如果我们回顾一下那些关于转变和其他类似事情的报道，特别是针对柏林的报道。当时有传言说，我当时就提到，我不会太惊讶，如果特斯拉不再专注于继续增加产量，而是更专注于他们当前产量的生产成本。所以我认为在这方面，奥斯汀有点不同。
We had the downtime there this quarter that'll have to re ramp up from that downtime. But presumably Tesla put in some cost improvement things in place during that downtime. But I think for both these factories, then Tesla is just saying, hey, we're not going to bump these up to 500,000 a year on the Model Y because of this environment that we're in right now. So, you know, if Tesla felt better about it, I think there's production capacity on the table there that, you know, Tesla could go after.
我们在这个季度遇到了停工期，需要从停工期中重新启动生产。但是可以推测特斯拉在停工期间进行了一些成本改进。但我认为对于这两家工厂，特斯拉只是在说，嘿，由于目前的环境，我们不会将Model Y的年产量提高到50万辆。所以，你知道的，如果特斯拉对此感到更好，我认为生产能力就在那里，特斯拉可以利用。
This is one of the first times that we've heard of Tesla, you know, not being sort of constrained by production, I would say, which will be an interesting period for them because they'll be able to, not that I'm trying to spend that. It's a good thing. I would prefer that they, you know, obviously have as much demand as they as they would like. But since it is kind of a unique period in Tesla's history, it'll allow them to do things a little bit differently, take a little bit of a different approach and focus on some things that, you know, they normally maybe would put to the side during a period of time where they're a little bit more focused on growing production, which can have some long-term benefits.
这是我们第一次听说特斯拉不受生产限制，我想这对他们来说将是一个有趣的时期，因为他们将能够以不同的方式行事，专注于一些在他们通常更加关注生产增长的时期可能被搁置的事情，这可能会带来一些长期的好处。这并不是说我想要他们花费更多。这是一件好事。我希望他们能够有尽可能多的需求。但由于特斯拉历史上这是一个独特的时期，它将使他们能够以稍微不同的方式做事，并专注于一些事情上。
Again, I'm not saying that's, you know, better in terms of those two scenarios. But I do think it's worth, you know, considering that there will be different sort of targets and goals for Tesla during a period like this that might have some interesting learnings and improvements that can be put in place for them longer term as well. Mexico. So same kind of story there with Berlin and Austin, just not really going, you know, full pedal pedal, pedal to the metal on Mexico at this point. Set Elon said that, you know, he thinks that they'll start construction next year. I think originally, you know, sort of the original communication we heard was, I don't know, like nine months or something. I think we kind of thought that it would start this year, 2023.
再次强调，我并不是说在这两种情况下这样做更好。但我认为值得考虑的是，在这段时间里，特斯拉可能会设定不同的目标和目标，这可能会带来一些有趣的经验和改进，也可以为他们长期的发展打下基础。墨西哥。因此，就像柏林和奥斯汀一样，墨西哥在这一点上也并没有全力以赴。埃隆说，他认为他们明年将开始施工。我记得最初的沟通我们听到的是，我不知道，大约是九个月左右。我们原本以为会在今年开始，也就是2023年。
So if they do start next year, it's not like it's the, you know, most significant delay in the world. And really, you know, the point in time, from which they start to when they actually start producing vehicles is probably the most critical factor. But as we had talked about, Tesla's kind of already made the decision to rather than kick off the next generation vehicle in gigamaxico to kind of move that over to gigatexis. So I don't think that Mexico is really a gating factor for, you know, really anything in the next year or maybe even two years. So, you know, obviously, my preference would be for them to kind of get started on that earlier, just so it's ready to go when they when they feel like it can go. But at the same time, there's probably some time that we've got here where they can, you know, wait a bit before it starts being super impactful to, you know, longer term things.
所以，如果他们明年开始，不像是世界上最重要的延迟。而且，你知道的，从开始到实际开始生产车辆的时间点可能是最关键的因素。但正如我们之前讨论的，特斯拉已经做出了决定，不再在巨量化的车辆中展开新一代车辆，而是将其迁移到巨型得克萨斯工厂。所以我认为，墨西哥对未来一年甚至两年的任何事情来说都不是一个限制因素。所以，显然，我的偏好是他们尽早开始，这样当他们觉得可以的时候，它就可以立即启动。但同时，我们可能还有一些时间可以等待，这样在影响到较长期的事情之前，它可能不会产生太大影响。
Now, obviously presents a little bit of a gap next year and maybe 2025, even where, you know, probably one of the the more disappointing things from this call was, I don't know where in the notes this was, but yeah, so 50%. So yeah, that was something I was really disappointed to hear from Elon, you know, originally the plan, this probably goes back to I don't know, like 2020, 2021, I think is what Tesla says it was in their earnings report. But I think even before that there were comments about, yeah, 50% compound annual growth rate is kind of the target that gets us to 4 million or so in 2024, or sorry, in 2025, gets us to 20 million in 2030, actually above that. But, you know, that was that was kind of the targets that were laid out, right? It was 50% kegger, and it was, you know, roughly 4 million in 2025, although a little bit less specificity around that one, and you know, 20 million in 2030.
现在，明显地，明年和可能的2025年有一点间隔，甚至在这次电话中最令人失望的事情之一是，我不知道在笔记中是在哪里，但是是的，所以50%。所以，这是我对Elon所说的一个非常失望的事情，最初的计划，这可能追溯到，2020年或2021年，我认为这是特斯拉在盈利报告中提到的。但我认为即使在那之前也有评论说，是50%的复合年增长率是达到2025年左右400万的目标，2030年达到2000万，实际上更高。但是，你知道，那些是设定的目标，对吧？是50%的增长率和大约2025年的400万，虽然这个目标没有那么具体，然后是2030年的2000万。
This to me sounds like an early indication of like, hey, that's that's not the benchmark anymore, at least for right now, which that's obviously super disappointing. Now things can change when there's less economic uncertainty, those targets can come back on the table, but the longer they're delayed for, you know, as we kind of talk about gigamexico and how that fits into these things, longer, those are delayed for the less aggressive that Tesla is, which I don't think they're getting like super less aggressive, just, you know, less aggressive than we know Tesla to be historically, which is probably pretty hyper aggressive. I think Tesla is still being aggressive, they're just not sort of, you know, the Tesla aggressive that we've, we've come to know and obviously love.
在我看来，这似乎是一个早期的迹象，就像是在说，嘿，这不再是基准了，至少暂时是这样的，这显然让人失望。现在，当经济不确定性减少时，这些目标可以重新上台，但是延迟越久，就越少有力地表明特斯拉的进攻性，我不认为他们会变得非常不积极，只是相对于我们过去所了解并热爱的特斯拉表现得不那么积极。我认为特斯拉仍然很有进攻性，只是不再是我们所熟知和喜爱的那种超级进攻性了。
So, and I think this is a, you know, this along with the indications about, you know, gigamexico, Berlin, Austin, etc, are indications of that. And I think, you know, long term that that will have an impact in terms of pushing out some of these targets that that Tesla's kind of laid out. So again, that that part of the call and even in the shareholder letter, you know, we kind of started started to get an illusion to that is definitely disappointing.
因此，我认为这一点，你知道的，还有关于吉加墨西哥、柏林、奥斯汀等的迹象，都表明了这一点。我认为，在长期来看，这将对特斯拉设定的一些目标产生影响。所以再次，这一部分电话和甚至在股东信中，你知道的，我们开始开始提及这一点，无疑令人失望。
Robotaxy stuff. I mean, we've we've heard it so many times now. Yeah, not sure there was anything too new on that. I wish we would have heard a little bit more about FSD 12. The little bit that we did here, I think was not super encouraging because Elon said, you know, the more geographies or regions or localities that we tried to put FSD in, the heart of the problem gets. Obviously, it's already an extremely hard problem. So, that's very intuitive and not at all surprising. But at the same time, FSD 12 N10 neural network, that is supposed to be something that kind of not alleviates those problems, but hopefully kind of addresses them. So for him to talk about FSD 12 at the same time as talking about how it's harder to do in different geographies and things like that, while it does make sense is also, you know, I wish it would have just been presented a little bit more bullishly, I guess, if that makes sense, than how it was.
机器出租车的事情。我的意思是，我们现在已经听说过这个事情太多次了。唔，不确定有什么新鲜的消息。我希望我们能多听到一些关于FSD 12的信息。我们稍微听到了一点点，我觉得并不是特别令人鼓舞，因为埃隆说，你知道的，我们试图让FSD在更多地理区域或地方使用，问题就越难解决。很明显，这已经是一个非常困难的问题。所以，这一点非常直观，一点也不令人惊讶。但与此同时，FSD 12 N10神经网络，应该是一种在一定程度上缓解这些问题、希望解决这些问题的东西。所以，虽然他在谈论在不同地理区域中要做到这一点更加困难的时候也说得通，但同时谈论FSD 12，我希望它能够更加乐观地表述，就像我刚才提到的那样。
So not something I'm necessarily like super disappointed in on that front, but I don't think we got anything like excellent or super exciting about FSD 12, which is probably one of the things that, you know, right now, as we talked about in the shareholder letter, right now when we're kind of waiting for those next generation of products, if FSD can make some good progress, that also something that kind of bridges that gap potentially, but we obviously have to wait and see.
所以，对于这一点，我并不是非常失望，但我认为我们在FSD 12方面并没有得到优秀或非常令人兴奋的任何东西，而这可能是我们目前正在等待的下一代产品之一。就像我们在股东信中谈到的那样，如果FSD能取得一些良好的进展，这也有可能填补这个差距，但我们显然还需要等待。
Optimists, we kind of heard about that. Elon didn't want to give any indication of, you know, production or whether or not that'd be useful next year. He had previously said it was, so I wouldn't say it's, you know, necessarily tempering expectations on that, but seemed a little bit less bullish than the last update. But obviously, we just saw, you know, the video that Tesla put out, which I think was was pretty exciting price on FSD.
乐观主义者，我们有点听说过这个。埃隆并不想给出任何关于生产或明年是否有用的指示。他之前说过这个是有用的，所以我不会说他在这方面有节制，但相对上一次的更新，他似乎不再那么乐观了。不过，显然地，我们刚才看到了特斯拉发布的那段视频，我认为全自动驾驶方面的价格相当令人兴奋。
So temporarily low, basically, you know, Elon didn't say it during this part one of the rare parts. It didn't come back to interest rates, but I do think, you know, obviously with the higher interest rates, Tesla lowering the price of FSD is somewhat commensurate with those interest rate increases as well. So I think that's probably played a role there.
暂时来说，基本上，你知道，埃隆在这个罕见的部分一中没有提到它。它没有回到利率上，但是我认为，显然随着利率的上升，特斯拉降低全自动驾驶的价格也与这些利率的增加相对应。所以我认为这也可能在其中发挥了作用。
The Mercedes level three stuff. I like the question, actually. Some people might be surprised by that. I usually don't love all the questions, but the question is interesting because, you know, Tesla's system is obviously on a holistic level, just not even really comparable with Mercedes that so far ahead in terms of what it can actually do. But Mercedes has decided to focus on just a very narrow operational domain. And in that narrow domain, accepting the liability for it. So I wish it would have been framed differently than it was so that we could have gotten a better answer on it.
梅赛德斯三级驾驶系统的问题。实际上，我喜欢这个问题。一些人可能会对此感到惊讶。通常我并不喜欢所有的问题，但是这个问题很有趣，因为你知道，特斯拉的系统显然在综合水平上，在实际能够做的方面与梅赛德斯根本无法相提并论。但是梅赛德斯已经决定专注于一个非常狭窄的操作领域，同时承担这个领域的责任。因此，我希望这个问题能够以不同的方式提出，这样我们就能得到一个更好的答案了。
I mean, sometimes it's difficult because you can frame a question perfectly and Tesla can answer it however they want. They don't have to answer it. But it, you know, it is an interesting thing to think about, especially again, during this period where maybe there's not as much growth in the other parts of the business, if Tesla were to say, hey, while FSD is still in development, can we dedicate a very small portion of our time to starting to, you know, conquer some of these domains essentially, where, you know, Tesla's starting to accept liability. And when they do that, I think that creates a tremendous amount of value for customers, even if it's not the solution that Tesla's working towards. And ultimately, they have to make the decision because whether or not the work, the work that would go into something like that is worth it. That's, you know, a decision that I don't think any of us could make without that information about how much work it would be. But if it were easy enough, and Tesla could offer something like this in a broader area, in under broader circumstances, I think that customers would would really appreciate that. If you can sort of get your time back, I mean, that's kind of what Ford has talked about that they're just working on that now instead of FSD. But like, like, just imagine that, you know, you've got the split of autopilot and FSD. And the autopilot functionality, although it's limited in terms of where you can use it, if you could use it, and it takes over the liability and you don't have to pay attention, I think people would be much more willing to pay for a monthly subscription for that, or, you know, we talked a little bit earlier today about paying per mile or something like that. I think that that becomes instantly more valuable, and people can recognize the value of that a lot easier as well. So it's interesting, again, you know, we didn't really get into that in terms of the answer. But I do wonder as the longer that FSD takes, the more something like that, I think is going to make sense. And that's where it's just kind of the balance of like, how much effort do you want to spend on that versus just trying to, you know, get the full solution. And obviously Tesla so far has picked to dedicate everything to the full solution. Which ultimately I think is the right move, but, you know, there's some space in there for other decisions that could be interesting.
我的意思是，有时候很难，因为你可以完美地提出一个问题，而特斯拉可以随心所欲地回答它。他们不一定要回答。但是，你知道，在这个时期，其他业务可能没有那么多增长的情况下，思考这个问题确实很有意思，如果特斯拉能够说，嘿，虽然全自动驾驶还在开发中，我们能否在一小部分时间内开始征服一些领域，例如，特斯拉开始承担责任。当他们这样做时，我认为这会为客户创造巨大的价值，即使这不是特斯拉正在努力实现的解决方案。最终，他们必须做出决策，因为去做这样的事情是否值得。对于我们而言，如果没有关于工作量有多大的信息，我们都无法做出决策。但是如果足够简单，特斯拉可以在更广泛的领域提供这样的服务，我认为客户会非常感激。如果你可以节省自己的时间，我的意思是，这就是福特所谈论的，他们现在正在努力的就是这个，而不是全自动驾驶。但是，想象一下，你拥有自动驾驶和全自动驾驶的分离。虽然自动驾驶功能在可使用的范围上存在限制，但是如果你可以使用它，并且它承担起责任，你就不必注意了，我认为人们更愿意为此支付按月订阅费用，或者我们今天稍早的讨论中提到的按英里数支付费用之类。我认为那样就会立即增加价值，人们也会更容易认识到这种价值。所以这很有趣，再次强调，我们在回答中没有真正深入探讨这个问题。但是我确实想知道随着全自动驾驶的时间越长，这样的事情就会变得更有意义。这就是平衡的问题，你想在那上面投入多少努力，而不仅是试图找到完整的解决方案。显然，到目前为止，特斯拉已经选择把一切都专注于完整的解决方案。从根本上讲，我认为这是正确的决策，但是在其中还有一些空间可以做出其他有趣的决策。
Optimists, we talked about that progress tends to look like a log curve. Kind of talked about that. You know, on's mentioned those things before. Ramp of the cyber truck. So yeah, this was a little bit more positive than I think initially, maybe people would have interpreted as 18 months, you know, I don't think anyone should be surprised by that we've we've seen vehicle ramps many, many times. And best case scenario, you're talking about something in Gikushang, hi, that's already been produced somewhere else. And even that's going to take a year.
乐观主义者，我们谈论过进步往往呈现为一条对数曲线的形式。在某种程度上谈论过这个。你知道，之前有人曾经提到过那些东西。Cybertruck的上坡道。所以，这比我想象的一开始可能更加积极，18个月，你知道，我不认为有人会对此感到惊讶，我们已经多次见证了汽车生产的上坡过程。在最佳情况下，你会谈到的是已经在另外一个地方生产的东西。即便如此，也需要一年的时间。
You know, maybe best case kind of like nine months. So no, no surprise on that, especially with obviously the unique complexity with the cyber truck that they mentioned. High volume low cost smaller vehicle much more conventional in terms of technology. I didn't catch the exact comment from Lars, but he said something about like there's no stainless steel invention that they need to make. I know a lot of people wonder if it's going to be cyber truck to ask those comments to me definitely indicated not that direction, which has been my opinion for a while.
你知道的，最好的情况可能是九个月，所以对此没有惊喜，特别是考虑到他们提到的Cybertruck独特的复杂性。高产量、低成本、更小型的车辆在技术方面更加常规。我没有听到Lars具体的评论，但他说了一些关于不需要发明不锈钢的话。我知道很多人想知道是不是Cybertruck，但对我来说，这些评论明确表明不是这个方向，这也是我一直以来的观点。
So maybe I'm just biased in terms of my interpretation of it. But, you know, he could mean that since I've already done it with cyber truck, it is no longer new then for the next generation vehicle. But just based on everything that they said, they're more conventional, utilitarian, like, I don't think that it's going to be, you know, cyber truck style. Audio cut out, we'll have to kind of figure out what that is.
也许这只是我的解释有点偏见。但是，你知道，他可能是指因为我已经用了赛博卡车，所以下一代的车就不再新鲜了。但是根据他们所说的一切，它们更加传统、实用，不像是赛博卡车那样的风格。音频中断了，我们得弄清楚那是什么意思。
Elon again, saying it's, it's a utility, still beautiful, but utilitarian. FSD stuff, we've heard a thousand times. I don't think Pierre quite got his got his question answered on that one. sequential margin changes, mega pack. And yeah, pricing stuff. Just looking through to see what else we may not have covered yet.
埃隆再次说，它是一个公共设施，仍然美丽但实用。全自动驾驶的东西，我们已经听过一千次了。我认为皮埃尔并没有完全得到他的问题的答案。连续的边际改变，超级电池组。对了，还有定价的问题。只是浏览一遍，看看我们可能还没有涵盖到的其他内容。
So we have not included model Y radar. So we talked about that a couple of days ago, it's just something that was an option in the paperwork. I don't think anyone necessarily thought that they were putting it in already. But maybe and Elon's answer here didn't exclude this possibility. Maybe Tesla just has left it open in case that you want to add, you know, the Tesla designed radar at some point.
所以我们没有包括Model Y的雷达。我们几天前就谈论过这个问题，它只是文件中的一个选项。我认为没有人认为它已经放进去了。但是埃隆在这里的回答并没有排除这种可能性。也许特斯拉只是为了给你留出一个选择，以后你可以选择添加特斯拉设计的雷达。
The game of pennies. Elon had some good jokes in there. That was laughing. volume. It's unclear exactly the volume comments. I mean, the volume is going to increase, obviously, from where we're at now in Q three because of the downtime. But at the same time, they said that volume is not going to ramp that much further. So I think see if I was talking about just how volume will increase from where it was at this quarter. But I don't expect that that also meant that they'll continue to significantly increase that.
夺分游戏。埃隆开了一些很好笑的玩笑。那让我笑得很大声。关于评论的数量还不清楚。我的意思是，显然，由于停工时间，从现在的第三季度开始，数量会增加。但与此同时，他们也说数量不会进一步大幅增加。所以我认为，我只是在讨论数量将从本季度开始增加。但我不指望他们会继续显著增加数量。
As for next year, you know, I was asked about what the unit guidance might be for next year. And they said, you know, we'll have an update on that on the next call. I think this is another good time where it's really helpful for people to just sit down and like model the business. It doesn't have to be anything like super detailed or crazy, but just kind of look at production by factory and see what you think makes sense.
关于明年的事，你知道的，有人问我关于明年单位指导的问题。他们说，你知道的，我们下次通话时将会有更新。我认为这是另一个很好的机会，让人们坐下来，简单地模拟一下业务。它不必过于详细或疯狂，只需查看各工厂的生产情况，然后判断出合理的策略。
It is difficult to find a path to, you know, really significant increases next year. And that becomes even more difficult, which is kind of what the analysts are trying to capture here. You can kind of tell by their questions that with with updates about not much increases in Shanghai, Berlin, Texas, obviously, Mexico is not going to contribute next year. Fremont, we kind of know what it is, right? Like, I don't think anyone expects any major increases there.
找到一条通往明显增长的道路非常困难。而这变得更加困难了，分析师们正试图捕捉到这一点。从他们的问题中可以看出，在上海、柏林、得克萨斯这些地方的增长不大的消息更新中，显然明年墨西哥也不会有贡献。弗里蒙特，我们在某种程度上了解它，对吧？就像我们所知道的那样，我不认为有人期望它会有任何重大增长。
So after the highland ramp, it's just kind of difficult to see where any additional volume starts to come from. And then when you're in that scenario, you're kind of capped on what the what the volume can be for next year. So that kind of comes back to the plateau thing. And this again, this is why I've been talking about sort of that for a while, is because you know, you sit down there and you have to model these things out.
所以，在高原坡道之后，很难看出来还有什么额外的体量来源。那么当你处于这种情况下时，你的体量可能会受到限制。这也再次提到了高原的问题。这就是为什么我一直在讨论这个问题的原因，因为你不得不对这些情况进行建模和分析。
And at a certain point, it just kind of kind of stops. So that's not necessarily a bad thing. Like, obviously, we'd all prefer that model three and model Y just kept going to infinity. But obviously, that's not possible. At a certain point, you just you got to wait for the next generation platform.
在某个点上，它就停止了。所以这并不一定是件坏事。显然，我们都希望Model 3和Model Y能无限延续下去。但显然这是不可能的。在某个时候，你必须等待下一代平台的推出。
Tesla was at this point back in 2016, 2017, as we waited for model three. Model Y was quick enough that we didn't have much of that with the model three, but we would have had that eventually with the model three and had to wait for model Y. But because it was so similar, we just kind of, you know, test to kind of stack those on top of each other, which was nice. But now, you know, we're at the tail end of that ramp. And we're just kind of waiting for to get to the next generation.
特斯拉在2016年、2017年的那个时候，正如我们等待Model 3一样。Model Y进展很快，所以我们在Model 3上没有遇到太多问题，但是我们最终也会遇到Model 3的问题，不得不等到Model Y。但是因为两者非常相似，我们只是简单地在此基础上进行了一些测试和改进，这非常好。但是现在，我们正处于生产高峰的末端。我们只是在等待下一代产品的到来。
So obviously, if if interest rates had stayed at zero percent for longer, then Tesla probably could have continued to ramp it, you know, more aggressively, like they sort of initially, I think, had in mind with Berlin in Texas. But with that being not the case anymore, you know, Tesla just adjusting as as they should be to be good managers of the business.
显然，如果利率保持在零利率水平更长时间，那么特斯拉可能会继续以更加积极的方式扩大业务规模，就像他们最初在柏林和德克萨斯计划的那样。但由于现在情况并非如此，特斯拉只是在适应变化，做到良好的企业管理者应该做的事情。
I know we'd all love it to be a little bit different than it is, but it is probably prudent for Tesla to just, you know, assess the information that they have at this point in time and adjust accordingly. And although that might set them some things back, you know, I still have full confidence that Tesla's well equipped to manage these things, these periods, which, you know, they're not quite as fun as the periods that we had in whatever 2020 and 2021.
我知道我们都希望它与现在的情况有所不同，但对于特斯拉来说，现在最明智的做法可能是仅仅评估他们目前所拥有的信息，并相应地进行调整。虽然这可能会使他们在某些方面受挫，但我仍然对特斯拉有充分的信心，他们具备应对这些时期的能力，尽管这些时期不像2020年和2021年那样有趣。
But again, same same thing with the stock. You can't expect years like that every every single year either. Many people that have been in Tesla forever obviously know the not necessarily like the pain that comes with holding, but just like the the patience that you have to have with a long term investment. That's why a lot of early Tesla investors kind of preach that that patience and long term mindset, because, you know, they're plenty of periods different different things, but plenty of periods like this that were tough and, you know, not super exciting about the business.
但是，与股票一样，你也不能希望每年都有像那样的年份。很多一直持有特斯拉股票的人显然知道，持有股票并不一定会带来痛苦，但你必须具备长期投资所需的耐心。这就是为什么很多早期的特斯拉投资者会强调耐心和长期思维的原因，因为在不同时期会遇到很多艰难的时刻，并不总是对企业感到非常兴奋。
I'm sure people remember, you know, some of the some of the things with like Model X and some of the guidance that Tesla gave and it ended up being way off and it's just like, oh, man, this this is looking not good. But again, long term, everything's great. And I think we're probably in a situation like that again where, yeah, the business is not increasing as quickly as it was at one point.
我确信人们还记得，你知道的，特斯拉 Model X 和一些特斯拉给出的指导方针，结果相差甚远，简直是太糟糕了。但是再说一次，从长远来看，一切都还好。我认为我们可能再次处于这样的情况，是的，业务增长速度不再像过去那样快了。
But there's still so many different things to be excited about with the business. Like someone yesterday made a comment of like, Oh, you're you've got this $800 billion company. And all of that value or 500 billion of that is is coming down to FSD. I mean, not really you've got FSD, but you've also got Cybertruck, you've got semi you've got the next generation vehicle, which is going to be bigger than Tesla's entire unit volume right now.
但是这个企业仍然有很多令人兴奋的事情。就像昨天有人评论，哦，你们有8000亿美元的公司。其中5000亿美元来自于全自动驾驶（FSD）。我是说，虽然你们确实有FSD，但你们还有Cybertruck，还有半挂卡车，还有下一代车型，它将比特斯拉现在的整体销量还要大。
Like people do people understand that? Probably by a significant margin. So that's, you know, those are those things are all on the horizon. And so many other things supercharging Tesla insurance energy, like 24% gross margins on Tesla energy. That's phenomenal. I don't think many people would have except for maybe a small little Twitter Twitter crew that were probably a little bit over optimistic. But you know, certainly in the analyst community or in Wall Street, I don't think anyone would have really expected that. And that's a very exciting business.
像人们理解那样，可能差距很大。所以，你知道，这些都是未来的事情。还有很多其他事情正在为特斯拉的保险业务和能源业务提供强大支持，比如特斯拉能源业务的24％毛利率，这令人惊讶。我不认为有很多人会预料到这一点，也许只有一小部分过于乐观的推特社区会。但是，在分析师界或者华尔街，我不认为有人会真正期待这个。这是一个非常令人兴奋的业务。
I mean, that was what a third of Tesla's profit or, well, more like a tenth of Tesla's profit this this quarter, but growing and growing more quickly. So I think there's tons to be excited about with the energy business. And you know, there's a long, long list of things in the business that the Tesla's doing.
我的意思是，那就是特斯拉利润的三分之一，或者更确切地说是这个季度特斯拉利润的十分之一，而且还在迅速增长。所以我认为，能源业务有很多令人兴奋的方面。而且你知道，特斯拉在业务中做了很多事情，列表长长的。
And then you got to consider competition, right? Like, yeah, things aren't as exciting in in the financials for Tesla right now as they were a year ago. But like, look at, look at the announcements that we're hearing from Ford, look at the situation that Ford GM is the landest around right now at the UAW. We just heard from GM earlier this week that they're delaying investments in EVs.
然后你必须考虑竞争，对吧？就像是，是的，对于特斯拉来说，现在的财务状况并没有像一年前那样令人兴奋。但是，看看我们从福特那里听到的公告，看看福特和通用汽车目前在工会联合会（UAW）周围的情况。我们这周早些时候刚刚听到通用汽车推迟在电动车方面的投资计划。
Like, that's, that's going to hurt them. Just like, you know, just like we talked about with Tesla not being quite as aggressive. My shift some of Tesla's things back a little bit. That probably goes double or triple for a company like GM. How much prefer to be in the situation where Tesla's in, and you know, have the capability of delivering these products earning cash flow and reinvesting that cash flow into their future growth, both in, in terms of AI, and in terms of vehicles and energy and all the other stuff we just listed, then be in a position like GM where it's like, Oh, man, we're kind of reliance on these ice vehicles, which are becoming more and more expensive because of interest rates.
就像我们之前提到的特斯拉并不那么具有攻击性一样，这会让他们受伤。特斯拉的一些事情可能要稍微调整一下。对于像通用汽车这样的公司来说，这可能会是加倍或者加三倍的困难。我更希望自己处于特斯拉所处的境地，你知道，拥有交付这些产品并赚取现金流，并将这些现金流再投资于他们的未来增长，包括人工智能、车辆、能源等等，而不是像通用汽车这样的处境，我们在这种情况下过于依赖燃油发动机汽车，这也因为利率不断上升导致其成本越来越高。
And then we also have to be making all these new investments in this EV business that we really don't know much about that we really have no historical success with that only looks like it's going to be draining our profitability and by the way, Tesla's out there and they just don't really care. They're going to cut prices and make things more affordable and and they can manage to do that because they're already at scale.
然后我们还需要在这个我们对其了解不多、我们没有历史成功经验的电动车业务中进行所有这些新的投资，只看起来会削弱我们的盈利能力。而且，顺便说一下，特斯拉已经存在并且他们不太在乎，他们会降低价格以让产品更可负担，并且他们之所以能够做到这一点，是因为他们已经具备规模经济效益。
That's what you got to compete with. Like, this is just night and day in terms of the comparison with Tesla's businesses. And you know, you've got BYD out there that's that's doing well, but that's that's pretty much it. You know, Volkswagen looked like maybe it was taking the steps in the right direction, but they've they've regressed so far in the last year. Toyota continues to just do nothing. So the market's wide open. And you know, Tesla's continues to be significantly better position than anybody out there to take it. So that's where we say like, yeah, this is maybe a disappointing quarter.
这就是你需要与之竞争的对手。就连与特斯拉的业务相比，简直就是天壤之别。你知道，比亚迪在这方面做得不错，但也仅此而已。大众汽车看起来可能正在朝着正确的方向迈进，但在过去一年里他们退步了很多。丰田继续保持不做任何事情。所以市场是敞开的。而特斯拉在比其他任何人都更加有竞争优势。所以我们可以说，这可能是一个令人失望的季度。
Still a lot to be excited about long-term. It's we talked earlier about like holding two thoughts in your mind at the same time. And that's one of it. People, you know, again, sitting here saying in the chat, like, depressing call like Rob looks depressed. People just say that all the time. We talked about that earlier today as well. But no, it's it's fine. I mean, again, long long long list of things to be excited about. And I don't think any of those. I don't think that list of things changes, right? Like the only thing that maybe changes a little bit today is that we, you know, we probably get a little bit lower peak ramps for Model Y in Berlin, in Texas. Like, well, do I own Tesla stock because I thought that Berlin in Texas, we're going to produce 250,000 more Model Ys than they might know. Like, that's not really a contributing factor at all. So while I would love if they could do that and Tesla earns more money and the stock prices better faster, that'd be awesome. But it's also not why, you know, why I'm an investor in Tesla, why I've been an investor in Tesla for more than a decade. And probably will continue to be an investor for a decade, because I'm excited about these other things, not just about, you know, Model 3 and Model Y.
还有很多长期值得兴奋的事情。就像我们之前讨论过的，在你头脑中同时保持两个想法。这就是其中之一。人们常常在聊天中说，像是罗布看起来很沮丧。我们今天早些时候也谈到了这个问题。但是没关系。我的意思是，仍然有很多令人兴奋的事情要做。我不认为这些事情会改变，对吧？也许今天唯一有点改变的是，我们在柏林和德克萨斯州的Model Y的销售高峰可能会有所下降。但是我会拥有特斯拉的股票，因为我以为柏林和德克萨斯州会生产比预想多25万辆Model Y吗？这并不是一个真正的影响因素。尽管我希望能实现这一点，特斯拉能赚更多钱，股价涨得更快，那将是很棒的事情。但这不是我投资特斯拉的原因，也不是我十多年来一直投资特斯拉的原因。我可能还会在未来十年继续投资，因为我对其他事情感到兴奋，不仅仅是Model 3和Model Y。
All right, well, that was a long comment. Definitely making Mexico. You get to Texas, we talked about some of the things there. Yeah. All right, yeah. So I mean, a lot of stuff there. Again, people are saying like Elon's depressed too. It's just stop, stop reading into stuff like that. It's it's rarely accurate as I have found from people assessing my own mood on a daily podcast. Like, Elon's got a lot going on, doesn't necessarily reflect on anything that he's talking about at that moment. Obviously, there's things that aren't super exciting that he has to share here. But so it could be, but just it's not a very accurate route to go down, which I can say from my my own personal experience pretty confidently.
好的，嗯，那是一则很长的评论。肯定会去墨西哥。在你到达德克萨斯之前，我们聊了一些那里的事情。嗯，好吧，是的。所以我的意思是，那里有很多事情。再说一遍，人们也说埃隆也感到沮丧了。别再过多解读这种事情了，因为从我自己每天播客来评估自己心情的人们那里得出的结论很少准确。埃隆有很多事情要处理，并不一定反映在他当时谈论的任何事情上。显然，他必须在这里分享一些并不太令人兴奋的事情。但是这么说可能不太准确，我可以相当自信地说，这是从我自己的经验中得出的。
All right, looking at the stock here. So down about 4%, obviously we started off a lot higher before the call. I'm not surprised again. I think the there's there's not a lot in the call to be like really happy about or really support the stock in the short term certainly. So I'm not surprised. I was actually surprised as we talked about earlier that the stock was up after the report, because I think that it alluded to a lot of the stuff that we heard on the call. Maybe people just didn't quite catch that yet, but I'm not surprised.
好的，现在看一下股票情况。跌了大约4%，显然在那次通话之前我们的股价还要高得多。我对此并不感到惊讶。我认为通话中没有太多可以让人在短期内真正感到高兴或支持股票的地方。所以我并不感到惊讶。实际上，我们之前讨论过，报告出来后股票上涨了，我感到有点惊讶，因为我认为那个报告提到了通话中我们听到的很多内容。也许人们还没完全理解其中的意思，但我并不感到惊讶。
I think, you know, I wouldn't I also wouldn't be surprised if it gets a little bit tougher from here. Analysts are going to go back now and I'm not sure what consensus is for 2024 right now, but anyone that kind of had significant growth is going to have to probably come back and cut that sort of stuff out. So if anything, price targets are probably coming down from here, not that that's really the main factor that's going to drive the stock or anything like that. But I'd be surprised if we get a lot of upgrades or anything coming out of this call.
我认为，你知道的，我觉得接下来可能会变得更加困难。分析师们现在要重新评估情况，我不确定2024年的共识预测是什么，但那些有显著增长的企业可能需要回来修正一些东西。所以如果有什么变化的话，股价目标可能会下调，不过这并不是真正影响股票表现的主要因素。不过，如果这次电话会议中有很多升级的消息出现，我会感到惊讶。
So all right, what questions you guys got? This is usually we kind of wrap these up a little bit quicker, but I'll stick around and if people want to just kind of ask them questions, I know it's again calls like this, not the most fun. So I'm happy to stay a little bit longer and just kind of chat. Probably a little bit better for X spaces, but I did see some super chats come through. I can't this software is different. Luckily, we made it through the call. If you guys remember last quarter, I had issues. I had completely set this up on a new computer now. So seems like we were okay except for Tesla's drops. Rex, thank you. Appreciate that. Good to see you on here. You want to come on Tesla daily every few months to talk about anything and everything and stay off these calls to make it happen or off. Yeah, I mean, I guess I would take that.
好的，你们还有什么问题？通常我们会比较快地结束这些对话，但我会继续留下来，如果大家想询问问题的话，我知道这样的电话并不是最有趣的。所以我愿意再多待一会儿，进行一些闲聊。对于X空间来说可能更合适一些，但我已经看到有一些超级聊天发来了。这个软件和以前不一样，幸运的是，我们在通话中没有遇到问题。如果你们还记得上一季度，我遇到了一些问题。我现在已经在新的电脑上完全设置好了。所以除了特斯拉的下降，看起来一切都还好。Rex, 谢谢。很高兴在这里见到你。你想每隔几个月来Tesla每日讨论一下任何事情并远离这些电话以实现这个目的，我想我会接受的。
Um, let's try and see. Somebody asked, did I miss Highland release dates? No, Tesla just kind of punted on that, but Motor Trend did say it was going to be January and then Tesla apparently requested for them to update to Q1. So that seems to be at least the best information that we have right now, which I think people were kind of already expecting that based on some rumors previously.
嗯，让我们试试看。有人问了，我错过了高地发布日期吗？不，特斯拉只是暂时搁置了那个，但是《Motor Trend》杂志的报道说它将在一月份发布，然后特斯拉显然要求他们更新为第一季度。所以目前这似乎是我们拥有的最好信息，我想人们根据之前的一些传闻已经预料到这一点了。
Alec asks, Alec asking, do you see more price cuts? I don't know. I mean, there's quite a few things that are going to work in Tesla's favor here. Obviously, Highland, that's going to help. And Tesla's actually raised prices on the Model 3 internationally where that's been introduced. So that should help both ASP and margins. But we'll see, you know, how long that can be sustained. Tesla might drop that over time.
艾莱克问，你看到更多的价格降低了吗？我不知道。我的意思是，有很多事情对特斯拉有利。显然，海兰德将会帮助一些。特斯拉实际上已经在引进国际版Model 3时提高了价格。这应该对平均售价和利润率都是有帮助的。但是我们会看到，这种情况能够持续多久。特斯拉可能随着时间的推移会降低价格。
As we talked about, the point of sale change for the EV credit. That'll be offset a bit by the possible reductions, particularly for Model Y. But those being point of sale and those being refundable, effectively refundable, I don't know technically worded that way, but becomes effectively refundable. Those are big changes that are very positive that should help in the beginning of the year.
如我们所讨论的，电动汽车税收优惠的零售时点将发生变化。这将有可能通过可能的减税措施来抵消，尤其是对于Model Y。但是，零售时点的优惠和可退还的优惠，有效地可退还优惠，我不知道技术术语是这么表述的，但这都是非常积极的重大变化，应该有助于年初的情况。
And then like we heard from Tesla today, they've sort of decided, I think, to sort of take their foot off the gas or off the pedal for ramping production. And, you know, even though earnings are down this year, deliveries are still up. Tesla's still going to grow deliveries by like 50%. Right? So when you do that, you need to do that through pricing most likely. You don't just get to sell 50% of the same thing at the same price. Otherwise, you're probably significantly underbricing it before.
然后，就像我们今天听到的那样，特斯拉似乎已经决定减缓生产节奏。尽管今年收益下降，但交付量仍在增加。特斯拉仍计划将交付量增长约50%。所以当你这样做时，最可能是通过定价来实现。你不能简单地以相同的价格出售50%的产品。否则，之前你可能明显低估了它。
So I'm not surprised with production increasing that prices would come down. Obviously, it's a little bit faster than I think most of us would have modeled for. But obviously that trend, you know, or that relationship shouldn't be surprising. So if there is now a period of time where Tesla is not increasing production as significantly, like not at this 50% rate anymore, there should be less downward pressure on pricing at that sort of stagnant level of production. Now, which of those is preferable up to people to decide, but just again, that relationship exists.
所以，我对生产增加导致价格下降并不感到吃惊。显然，这个速度比大多数人预计的要快一点。但是，这种趋势或关系并不令人惊讶。因此，如果现在有一个时期，特斯拉的生产不再以这种50%的速度增长，那么在生产保持稳定的水平上，对价格的下压力应该会减小。现在，哪种情况更可取由人们决定，但是这种关系确实存在。
So one thing we skipped over here that I meant to mention, I just didn't catch it in the notes because I think it was just a one short one. But Elon did say, you know, we are advertising, he seemed relatively positive about how that could affect the business in terms of the benefit that it could have. So I think that'll be a welcome thing for people as they kind of process things. You know, there's a lot to sort through here. But I think as people kind of circle back around to that, that'll be something that at least analysts and Wall Street kind of view as a positive.
在这里有一件我们跳过的事情，我本来想提及一下，但在笔记中没有注意到，可能只有一小节。但是埃隆确实说了，你知道，我们正在进行广告宣传，他对这对业务的影响相对积极，认为这可能带来的好处。所以我认为这对人们来说将是一个受欢迎的事情，因为他们在处理这些事情的过程中，需要整理很多东西。但我认为，当人们集中回到这个问题上时，至少分析师和华尔街会将其视为积极因素。
And I'd expect that we'll see more efforts from Tesla on that, especially as they kind of, you know, operating, operating margins come lower and they've got less room. Like when you're sitting there at a 19% or 15% operating margin, it's pretty easy to just say, okay, let's just cut prices, right? When you're sitting there and you're at 7% boosted by half a billion dollars in regulatory credits, that type of a decision is much less simple. Tesla wants to continue to be free cash flow positive. They want to continue to earn money to support the business, which has always been the argument in favor of advertising, right? Is to help boost margins so that Tesla can have money to continue to grow in the ways that we want them to grow.
我预计我们将看到特斯拉在这方面采取更多举措，特别是在它们的运营边际下降且余地变小的情况下。当你面对19%或15%的运营边际时，削减价格是相当容易的，对吧？但当你面临着7%的运营边际，并且这还要依靠五亿美元的监管信贷时，这样的决定就不那么简单了。特斯拉希望继续保持正现金流。他们希望继续赚钱以支持业务，这也一直是支持广告的论点，对吧？广告可以帮助提高利润率，以便特斯拉能够获得资金继续按照我们所希望的方式发展。
I don't know why that is sometimes so difficult, but that's always been the argument for it. And I think, you know, that that argument becomes stronger as you both as you bring costs down and as you get your margins lower, because you just need to figure out something to kind of sustain those. And advertising can be a lever that can help with that. And as pricing comes down as a key part of that too, because, and I've always said the sense of the beginning, I have no problem with Tesla lowering prices, I just wanted to also kind of see them do things to maybe help support on the margin side, where I think there's a little bit of opportunity and as you want to be acknowledging here, there probably is. And rather than even arguing that they should do it more of just like they should try something and understand the effect.
我不知道为什么有时候这件事情会这么困难，但这一直都是对它的争论。同时我认为，随着成本降低和利润率下降，这个论点会变得更加有力，因为你需要找到一些方法来支撑这些。广告可以成为这个方法的一个杠杆，可以帮助解决这个问题。定价也是其中一个关键部分，因为我一直认为从一开始，我并不反对特斯拉降低价格，但同时也希望他们能够采取措施来在利润方面提供一些支持，我认为这方面有一些机会，也就是你在这里提到的。与其争论他们应该做更多，不如说他们应该尝试一些事情，并了解其效果。
So with with prices coming down, I think that's always been the right move, like Tesla was never going to continue to sell 2 million cars a year at whatever $60,000 or $58,000 or whatever the ASP peaked at. So they needed to come down, but you can also do things during that period to help support profits as you work prices down to.
随着价格下降，我认为这一直是正确的举措，就像特斯拉从未打算以每辆车6万美元或其他最高的平均售价销售200万辆汽车一样。所以他们需要降价，但在此期间，你也可以采取一些措施来帮助支持利润的增长，同时逐步降低价格。
So it's maybe not how I would have organized it time wise, but if Tesla ends up doing both of those things where they've got prices down, they're trying to help boost awareness through whatever methods advertising being one of them. And I think that both of those things work well in tandem.
所以，也许这不是我在时间上的组织方式，但如果特斯拉最终能够做到这两件事情，即降低价格，并通过各种方法来提高知名度，广告就是其中之一。我认为，这两件事情密切配合起来会很有效。
All right, that was getting kind of a long rant. Did see, I think a couple of super chats here. Tesla pilot saying he's only doing the minimum advertising to appease. I mean, that's what it seems like so far. I'm not going to make that quite as harsh of a judgment on that yet, because again, there's, you know, plenty of time to go forward and do these things. Obviously, I would say Tesla's advertising efforts so far have been pretty extremely minimal. But there's nothing wrong with starting slow and learning about it and, you know, making bigger bets as you as you go and as you learn. So we'll see, you know, what they have in store in the future. If we're sitting here a year from now and they've only, you know, done some airport advertising and, you know, a few Google ads, then yeah, that's a different conversation, I think. But I don't really have a problem with sort of a slow start to it.
好的，这篇长篇抱怨呢，我快看不下去了。我记得有一两个超级聊天的评论，特斯拉的试点表示他们只做最低限度的广告来安抚。我是说，目前看起来是这样。对此，我不会做出太苛刻的判断，因为还有很多时间去前进并做出这些事情。显然，我要说，特斯拉迄今为止的广告努力真的非常有限。但是从最慢的步伐开始并不是错的，通过学习来进行更大的赌注，逐渐前进。所以我们将会看到他们将来会有什么安排。如果在一年后我们还在这里，他们只做了一些机场广告和一些谷歌广告，那么我认为这就是一个不同的谈话了。但对于一个缓慢起步，我并不真的有什么问题。
Okay, let's see. Rob, thanks for the super chat. Did they mention why they borrowed 2.2 billion? No, this was something that I meant to come back to you from the shareholder letter. I don't know that I want to, we can come back to that tomorrow and tomorrow's episode. I don't want to dig through it while you guys are watching here. But yeah, Tesla did mention 2.3 billion raised in cash from financing activities. So we need to go back and just kind of look at what that was. I don't know that there was a, yeah, I'm not sure we just need to go back and look at that one. It's a good question though. Try to get that figured out for tomorrow.
好的，让我们来看看。罗布，感谢你的超级聊天。他们有提到为什么要借22亿美元吗？不，这是我打算从股东信中回复给你的。我不确定我是否想要在你们在这里观看的同时去查找。但是，是的，特斯拉确实提到了23亿美元的融资活动筹得的现金。所以我们需要回头去看看那是什么情况。我不确定是否有，嗯，我们只需要去回顾一下它。这是个好问题，明天我们会努力弄清楚的。
Okay, just trying to get caught up with the chats here. Victor saying, folks thinking increasing advertising will fix everything is just wrong. Sorry, it makes no sense. Yeah, I mean, if that's the sort of black and white line that you want to draw of like, is advertising going to fix everything? Heck no, definitely not. I think there's probably a small portion of people that are saying that. I think most people that are arguing for it are probably thinking that it's something that will be helpful and something that they would like to see Tesla do. Certainly there's going to be people on, you know, across the spectrum of that argument that they're making. I don't know that many people see it as like a silver bullet that's just going to fix things. I think it's more of just like, hey, people don't really get what's going on here with pricing and how good these vehicles are. We should maybe try to tell them a little bit and maybe that can help margins a bit at the same time.
好的，我正试图跟上这里的聊天。维克多说，认为增加广告就能解决问题的想法是错误的。对不起，这没有意义。是的，我的意思是，如果你想要划出这样的黑白界限，即广告会解决一切吗？当然不会。我认为只有一小部分人会这样说。我认为大多数支持这个观点的人可能认为这是有帮助的，认为特斯拉应该这样做。当然，对于这个论点，会有各种各样的观点。我不知道有多少人认为这只是一个万能药，能够解决问题。我认为更多的是像这样的，嗨，人们并不真正了解这里的定价和这些车有多好。也许我们可以试着向他们介绍一下，也许这可以帮助利润率。
Alright, well, my mouth's getting dry. I'm going to wrap it up though. Again, not depressed. Obviously, it's a little bit disappointing earnings release in terms of financials, a little bit disappointing in terms of some of the updates from the call. But a lot still to look forward to long-term for Tesla, which is always what it's been about.
好的，我的嘴巴渐渐干了。不过我要结束了。再次强调，我并不沮丧。显然，在财务方面，这次财报发布有点令人失望；在电话会议的一些更新方面也有点让人失望。不过，对于特斯拉来说，还有很多长期期待的事情，这也一直是特斯拉的核心所在。
Any business is going to go through periods of time that are difficult. Tesla, as much as they are normally the exception to almost everything. They're also going to face difficulties just like this. Again, I'm fully confident in Tesla's team that's working on this stuff day in and day out to try to make this business as strong and as beneficial to the world as they can. I think that's just kind of a good reminder to bring people back to.
任何企业都会经历艰难时期。特斯拉，虽然通常可以称得上例外，但他们也会遇到类似的困难。再次强调，我对特斯拉的团队充满信心，他们日复一日地努力让这个企业变得更加强大，更加有益于世界。我认为这仅仅是一个提醒，让人们记住这一点。
Obviously, we were invested. We want to make money on our investments. No question about that. If we can do that though and also support a company that's doing what Tesla is doing and doing it in a way that I think we can all feel really proud about, that so much better. We are seeing Tesla do that.
显而易见，我们投资了。我们希望通过投资赚钱，毫无疑问。但如果我们能够通过这样做来支持像特斯拉这样的公司，并且以一种我们都能感到非常骄傲的方式来做到这一点，那就更好了。我们正在看到特斯拉就是这样做到的。
It's not GM sitting here and saying, oh, we're just going to delay this. We're reevaluating our capital, whatever investments. We're just going to do this next year, maybe, late next year. Actually, late 2025, I think it was. That's a while.
这并不是通用汽车坐在这里说：“哦，我们只是会延迟这个。”我们正在重新评估我们的资本投资，以及其他投资。我们可能会把这个推迟到明年，或许是明年底。事实上，可能是在2025年末。那还有一些时间呢。
Tesla's going as fast as they can and still survive. I don't want to put it in black and white terms like Tesla's going to go bankrupt or something. That's not going to be the case. They're going to manage the business around challenging periods of time. We're just going to have to work through those periods. That's going to work right now.
特斯拉正在尽其所能地发展并依然能够存活下来。我不想用特斯拉将会破产之类的话来明确表达。情况并非如此。他们将会在艰难时期中管理好业务。我们只需要度过这些困难时期。现在这么做是很有用的。
That'll wrap it up for today. We'll be back tomorrow. If there's plenty more to talk about, it stocks down 5% now. Tough reaction. I want to be surprised again if it continues in that direction. We'll see. Let me know in the comments. I'll just try to keep an eye on them. If there's specific topics that you feel like we need to spend a little bit more time on tomorrow, let me know and we'll come back to you within.
今天就到这里吧，明天我们会回来。如果还有很多话题要讨论，目前股市下跌了5%。反应相当强烈。如果它继续朝那个方向发展，我会再次感到惊讶。我们拭目以待。请在评论中告诉我。我会继续关注。如果明天有任何你觉得需要花更多时间讨论的特定话题，请告诉我，我们会及时回应。
That'll wrap it up for today. As always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. You can also find me on X at Tesla podcast. We'll see you tomorrow for the Thursday, October 19th episode. Love to.
今天就到这里，谢谢你一如既往地聆听。确保你已经订阅并开启了通知。你也可以在X平台上的Tesla播客找到我。我们明天再见，推出十月十九日星期四的新一集。谢谢！