People Are WRONG About Tesla — New Survey Shows Ignorance

Hey everybody RobMower here and today we've got some new insights on the EV market from a survey from the Washington Post. We've also got updates on Thailand, India and a few other items as well. Quickly looking at the stock, the downtrend that we saw in the market after the FOMC meeting yesterday continued today, the NASDAQ down 1.8%, Tesla down 2.6%, so not bad with the macro, but finishing at $255.70 on the day.

大家好，这里是RobMower。今天我们从《华盛顿邮报》的一项调查中得到了有关电动汽车市场的一些新见解。我们还有泰国、印度和其他一些项目的最新动态。对于股票市场，昨天联邦公开市场委员会会议后出现的下行趋势在今天继续，纳斯达克指数下跌了1.8%，特斯拉下跌了2.6%，所以宏观来看还不错，但当天收盘价为255.70美元。

Alright, we'll start off with a new survey from the Washington Post, this got some attention on X today, including from Elon, so I wanted to share my thoughts on it as well. And there is actually some pretty interesting data on a number of different topics in here. So this survey was conducted by the Washington Post in partnership with the University of Maryland using a panel put together in partnership with the University of Chicago. 1,400 participants that they feel was a representative sample, with the sampling error of about 3.5%. The survey was done in mid-July this year.

好的，我们将从《华盛顿邮报》的一项新调查开始，这在今天的X平台上引起了一些关注，包括Elon在内，所以我也想分享一下我的想法。实际上在这里有一些关于许多不同主题的相当有趣的数据。这项调查是《华盛顿邮报》与马里兰大学合作，在与芝加哥大学合作组建的一个小组进行调查的基础上完成的。他们认为这1400名参与者是具有代表性的样本，采样误差约为3.5%。这项调查是在今年七月中旬进行的。

So the first question that we'll take a look at says regardless of how much they might cost, which type of vehicle would you rather own? Gas powered vehicle, a hybrid that does not plug in, a fully electric vehicle, or a plug-in hybrid. So 19% answered fully electric vehicle, 1% skipped or didn't know, the other 80% falling into either a gas powered or hybrid vehicle bucket.

所以我们首先要看的问题是，不论它们的成本有多高，你更愿意拥有哪种类型的车辆？是燃油车，不需插电的混合动力车，全电动车还是插电混动车？19%的人选择了全电动车，1%的人跳过或不知道，而其他80%的人则选择了燃油车或混合动力车。

So far as I tweeted to this, Elon replied to it, far as I'd said that this study backs up the notion that Tesla doesn't need to advertise they need to lower cost, 19% of US wants to own EVs, that's about 30 million cars, the current US EV fleet is about 1.7 million, hard to believe they aren't aware of Tesla, likely waiting for the right price. Elon replied to this saying, affordability is the top issue by far.

就我在推特上的发言而言，埃隆回复了我的问题。我曾言之凿凿地表示这项研究支持了特斯拉不需要广告，而是需要降低成本的观点。美国约19%的人想要拥有电动车，大约有3000万辆，而美国当前的电动车数量大约只有170万辆，很难相信他们对特斯拉不了解，可能只是在等待合适的价格。埃隆回复称，价格实惠是远远最重要的问题。

So here we go right back into the advertising debate. Obviously we heard Elon say at the shareholder meeting that Tesla would try it, we've seen a little bit of efforts from them, but those have been pretty minor so far. So to Elon's comment about affordability being the top issue, I would generally agree with that. But Tesla has come a long long way on that, especially if we include the impact of the EV tax credits, and obviously a lot of that has been offset by high interest rates, and there's certainly more work that can be done Tesla will continue to do that with the next generation platform, with FSD utilization, etc. Remember Elon thinks in first principles thinking, if a vehicle is better, and it's cheaper, then the majority of people are likely going to choose that, it's just a matter of developing the product enough to get it to that point.

所以，我们又回到了广告讨论的话题。显然我们听到了埃隆在股东会议上的发言，他表示特斯拉会尝试广告，我们也见识到了他们的一些努力，但那些努力到目前为止还是相当有限的。所以对于埃隆关于价格可负担性是最重要问题的评论，我基本上同意。但特斯拉在这方面已经取得了长足的进步，尤其是如果我们考虑到电动车税收抵免的影响，当然其中很大一部分被高利率所抵消，而且特斯拉还有更多可以做的工作，他们将继续通过下一代平台、自动驾驶的利用等方面来努力。请记住埃隆是按照第一原理思考的，如果一辆车既更好又更便宜，那大多数人很可能会选择它，只需要不断发展产品使之达到那个水平即可。

So long term affordability being the top issue, definitely something I agree with. However, I don't agree that the results of this survey show that advertising wouldn't be something that could be beneficial. I think it almost shows the opposite, I mean the question says regardless of how much they might cost, which would you prefer, and only 19% are saying fully electric vehicle? I think that number is a lot lower than it could be, should be, or will be in the future.

长期经济可负担性是首要问题，这一点我完全同意。但是，我不认同这项调查结果表明广告不会有所裨益。我认为它几乎展示了相反的情况。我的意思是，无论价格高低，你更喜欢哪种车，只有19%的人选择纯电动车？我认为这个数字比它本来可以、应该或者未来会达到的水平要低得多。

And while 19% of the US car market is obviously a big market, that 30 million number shrinks significantly when you consider the frequency of purchases of new vehicles, which is quite low. Probably better to use US annual sales for new vehicles, let's say that's like 16 million, than you're talking about 19% of that number, that's about 3 million a year. And that's pretty much best case, not considering cost, not considering segment, etc. But even if you say, okay, that's the market 3 million a year, Tesla's US production right now, it's close to a million, it's probably not there, maybe two thirds of a million, that should increase to a million relatively soon.

虽然美国汽车市场占比19%显然是一个庞大的市场，但当考虑到购买新车的频率相当低时，这3000万的数量就大幅缩小了。也许最好使用美国每年新车销售量，假设为1600万辆，这样你就在谈论那个数字的19%，大约是每年300万辆。这基本上是最理想的情况，没有考虑成本、细分市场等。但即使你说，好吧，年销售额是300万辆的市场，特斯拉在美国的产量现在接近100万辆，可能还不到这个数字的三分之二，但很快应该会增加到100万辆。

So okay, Tesla needs to take a third of that total addressable market. It's achievable, there's no other automaker that has a third of the auto market right now. But all right, let's say Tesla can do that, no problem. However, to grow up 50% a year, you can't even go three more years before you overwhelm that entire market, even with 100% of what we're calling here this total addressable market. So that's a problem. The other problem here is that this is just a fallacy in general, there's no such thing as the EV market, there is the vehicle market, and right now these results are saying that 80% of that market prefers a gasoline vehicle no matter the cost.

好吧，特斯拉需要占据总可寻址市场的三分之一。这是可以实现的，目前没有其他汽车制造商占据汽车市场的三分之一。但好吧，假设特斯拉可以做到没有问题。然而，要实现年增长50％，甚至在拥有我们所谓的总可寻址市场的100％的情况下，连续三年后也会超过整个市场。所以这是一个问题。另一个问题是，这只是一个普通的谬论，不存在所谓的电动汽车市场，只有车辆市场，而目前这些结果表明，80％的市场无论成本如何都更喜欢汽油车。

So whatever math you want to put behind that, whatever you want to say that Tesla's total addressable market is and how that can support their production, it doesn't really matter because ultimately what you're saying is that Tesla is only selling into a slice of their actual total addressable market, which is the total vehicle market. If you're missing 80% of your customers, I think it's pretty obvious that in that scenario, you're going to need a lower clearing price to match supply and demand, then you otherwise would.

无论你想用什么数学方法来证明，无论你想说特斯拉的总可寻址市场是多少以及它如何支持他们的产量，都不重要，因为最终你在说的是，特斯拉只是在销售其实际总可寻址市场的一小部分，即整个车辆市场。如果你错失了80%的客户，显然在这种情况下，你需要一个较低的清算价格来匹配供需，这与其它情况下是不同的。

So on the product side of this argument, you have people saying that just make the product better and overtime this 19% is going to grow approaching 100% over time. And I do generally agree with that. That's why I think the advertising thing is a little bit more of a short term type of conversation.

在这个论点的产品一方面，有人说只要让产品变得更好，随着时间的推移，这19%会逐渐增长，趋近于100%。我基本上同意这个观点。所以我认为广告这件事是一个更加短期的讨论话题。

Then the advertising side, you have people saying that, Hey, that 80% let's help inform them while we work on the affordability piece, because clearly that number should be higher than it is. So let's help get it higher. I think that's a very valid argument as well.

然后就是广告这方面，有人说，嘿，那80%的人让我们在我们努力提高可负担性的同时，帮助他们提高认知，因为显然这个数字应该比现在更高。所以让我们一起努力提高它。我认为这也是一个非常有道理的论点。

And that is supported by the fact that as later mentioned in this article, just over four in 10, 42% of Americans think that electric cars are cheaper to charge than gas powered cars. Well, that's a problem. There's no reason anybody should think that let alone the majority of people thinking that that certainly seems like a factor that would influence their consideration set. And it also has to do with affordability.

这一事实被该文章稍后提到支持，即超过四分之一，即42%的美国人认为电动车充电比油动车更便宜。嗯，这是一个问题。没有任何理由让任何人认为这样，更不用说大多数人认为是这样了，这肯定会影响他们的考虑因素。它还与可负担性有关。

Another question in here on charging says in general, do you think gas powered vehicles or electric vehicles are better on each of the following? Or do you think they're about the same? First one is convenience of refueling slash recharging 75% say gas powered vehicles are better 13% about the same 10% fully electric vehicle. No surprise here, this has always been the criticism of EVs.

这里的另一个问题关于充电接口，通常来说，你是否认为油动车或者电动车在以下方面哪个更好呢？或者你认为它们差不多？第一个是加油/充电的便利性，75%的人认为油动车更好，13%认为差不多，10%认为纯电动车更好。这并不令人意外，这一直是对电动车的批评。

But it got me thinking if I could actually just have my car and it's all the same, all the same stuff, electric powertrain battery, etc. But instead of filling up the battery like I do now at superchargers are at home, I fill up the battery like gas cars do at a gas station. And it happens very quickly. But with the trade off of no longer being able to then charge at home, would I make that trade? And for me, it's not even a question. I would absolutely not do that because home charging is so much more convenient. Definitely offsetting the 10 or 15 minutes extra at a supercharger on longer trips. I asked the same thing on X and 75% responders said that they also would not change.

但是这让我想到，如果我只能拥有我的汽车，并且它的一切都是一样的，都是一样的东西，电动动力系统、电池等等。但是，与其像现在一样在超级充电站或者家里充电，我可以像加油车在加油站那样给电池充电。而且充电速度会很快。但是，如果我不能在家充电，我会做这个交易吗？对我来说，这根本不是个问题。我绝对不会这样做，因为在家充电更加方便。这绝对会抵消长途旅行时在超级充电站多花的10到15分钟。我在X上问过同样的问题，75%的回答者说他们也不会改变。

Now, yes, if you don't have home charging, you'd probably prefer gasoline style recharging. But my sense, along with these poll results is that most Tesla owners feel that an EV is actually more convenient for refueling. So instead of 75% of responders here saying that gasoline is more convenient, that should probably in reality be flipped the other direction, maybe more like 75% saying EVs.

现在，是的，如果你没有家庭充电设施，你可能更喜欢汽油方式的充电。但是我的感觉，以及这些调查结果表明，大多数特斯拉车主认为电动汽车实际上更方便加油。所以，这里有75%的回答者称汽油更方便，实际上可能相反，也许有75%说电动汽车更方便。

If we dig a little bit more into these survey results, we see that 6% of respondents actually own or lease an EV. So that's actually pretty close to the 10% that are saying EVs are more convenient. Presumably for non EV owners, this question skews even further towards gasoline. So I think that's indicative of another information gap that exists, although this one admittedly a little bit more harder to just tell someone. It's a lot easier to show that charging an EV is cheaper than filling up a gas car, but convincing them that EVs are actually more convenient. That's a tougher sell and something that you may have to experience for yourself. I don't think it hurts though to plant that thought seat.

如果我们深入研究一下这些调查结果，我们会发现实际上有6%的受访者拥有或租赁电动汽车。所以这实际上非常接近声称电动汽车更方便的10%。可以推测对于非电动汽车车主来说，他们更倾向于使用汽油。所以我认为这显示了存在另一个信息差，虽然这个比较难以直接告诉某人。证明给别人看充电电动汽车比加满汽油车更便宜要容易得多，但说服他们电动汽车实际上更方便就要困难得多。这是需要亲身体验的。但提出这种想法并不会有害。

Last couple things here that also hammer this point home, 91% of respondents here that do not own or lease an EV thought that it would at least be somewhat difficult to regularly find EV charging with 50% saying it would be very or extremely difficult. Now for some people that may be true, but it's definitely not true for 91% of people, which is another I think information gap. And then this last one, I think this is pretty huge. It says that two thirds of people have heard little or nothing at all about revised EV tax credits. If two out of every three of your customers don't know that they could potentially save 15% on your product, that's probably going to hurt your sales a bit. And again, that goes directly back to affordability.

最后还有两件事，也在强调这一点，就是91%的受访者认为，对于那些没有购买或租赁电动汽车的人来说，要定期找到电动汽车充电站至少会有一定困难，其中50%的人表示这会非常或极其困难。对于一些人来说，这可能是真实的，但绝对不会对91%的人来说都是真的，这也是我认为信息差的另一方面。然后最后一个观点，我认为这非常重要。它指出，三分之二的人几乎没有听说过关于修订后的电动汽车税收抵免政策的任何信息。如果你的三分之二的客户不知道他们有可能节省15%的产品费用，那可能会对你的销售产生一定的影响。再次强调，这直接与可负担性相关。

On the production side, actual affordability is what matters. Actually keeping costs down is what matters. But on the selling side, it's more about perceived affordability. You could have the best product in the world and you could be selling it for a dollar. But if everyone thinks it costs a million dollars, no one's going to buy it. The responses here indicating that 60% of people think that EVs are more expensive to fill than gas cars, and that more than 60% of people know little to nothing about the EV credits would seem to demonstrate that the net perceived affordability does not match actual affordability that likely reduces your customer base and likely reduces your clearing price.

在生产方面，实际的可负担性才是最重要的。真正控制成本才是最关键的。但在销售方面，更多的是关于被认为的可负担性。你可以拥有世界上最好的产品，你可以卖它一美元。但如果每个人都认为它价值一百万美元，那么没有人会购买。这里的回答表明60%的人认为电动汽车的加油成本比燃油汽车更高，超过60%的人对电动汽车优惠补贴知之甚少，这似乎证明了网上所认知的可负担性并不符合实际可负担性，这可能会缩小您的客户群，并降低您的成交价格。

So to me, the advertising question should be less about does this add costs, which obviously it does, and more about whether or not those additional costs help close this gap, increasing the potential customer base and therefore the clearing price of your supply in a way that more than offsets those advertising costs. Now over time, people get educated this gap naturally narrows, but if in the meantime you can accelerate that closing through advertising, and as a result earn more money, which you can use to buy more dojo chips or whatever else, then why not go ahead and do that, and then when this gap does narrow in the future, and this trade off no longer makes sense, then that's when you stop advertising.

对我来说，广告问题应该更少关注是否增加了成本这一点，很明显它确实会增加成本，而更多考虑这些额外成本是否有助于弥合鸿沟，增加潜在客户群体，从而提高供应的结清价格，以抵消那些广告成本。随着时间的推移，人们逐渐接受教育，这个鸿沟自然会缩小，但如果与此同时你可以通过广告来加速这一缩小，并因此赚取更多的钱，你可以用来购买更多的道场筹码或其他东西，那为什么不继续进行这样的广告呢？直到鸿沟在未来被缩小，这种权衡不再合理时，那时你就停止广告。

Right now we just don't really have an answer on any of this because it's something that Tesla hasn't really fully tried. So that went more into the advertising conversation than I initially planned. I think a while back I had mentioned that I was gonna have an episode talking about advertising, and then we went in the shareholder meeting and Elon said they were gonna do it, so it kind of became moot. But there we go, that's probably not the entirety of my thoughts, but should kind of get the gist across.

现在我们对这些问题实际上没有答案，因为这是特斯拉从未真正尝试过的事情。所以这个对话更多地涉及广告话题，而不是我最初计划的内容。我记得一段时间以前我曾提到过要进行关于广告的一期节目，然后我们参加了股东会议，埃隆说他们将要做广告，所以这个话题变得没有意义了。但是以上大概能表达出我的思想要点。

Again, just to reiterate, I agree that affordability should be the absolute top priority, but I think coupling advertising costs which are optional and can be deleted at any time to affordability isn't necessarily how I would look at it. And again, I would reiterate that I do think that this is more of a short term in nature type of problem, which means that it's probably a little bit overemphasized, so even though this is most of the episode here, just add that context to, because once you get to the next generation vehicle, once you get to an actual RoboTaxi, stuff like this, it's really not that important, but there might be optimization opportunities in the meantime. We've obviously talked a lot about demand pockets that can be regional, that can be time-based. If we're in a time-based demand pocket right now or a product-based demand pocket, whatever else, advertising can be a tool for those periods of time, just like we have seen other tools be used like price cuts, like more promotional activities through the referral program that those have cost you, by the way, inventory discounts, any of those types of things.

再次强调一下，我同意价格实惠应该是绝对首要考虑因素，但是我认为将广告费用与实惠性绑定在一起并不是我所看待的方式。并且我再次强调，我认为这更多是一个短期性质的问题，这意味着它可能被夸大了一点，因此尽管这是本集内容的大部分，要加上这个背景，因为一旦你转向下一代汽车，一旦你拥有真正的自动出租车，像这样的事情就不再那么重要了，但在此期间可能存在优化机会。我们显然已经讨论了很多可以区域性或时间性需求的问题。如果我们现在处于时间性需求洼地或产品性需求洼地，广告可以作为那些时期的工具，就像我们所见过的其他工具被使用一样，比如降价，通过推荐计划进行更多促销活动，顺便提一下，这些都会给你带来成本，库存折扣以及其他类似的事情。

So we'll move on, let me know your thoughts in the comments, I'm sure we'll get some interesting ones today, but we'll move on for now.

那么我们继续进行，你在评论中告诉我你的想法，我相信今天会有一些有趣的意见，但现在我们继续。

Next update we have is on NACS, so Jaguar has announced that they are going to be adopting the North American charging standard. Obviously not the biggest player in EVs, but they will be adopting this beginning in 2025 and offering an adapter for supercharger access a little bit before that, so basically the same agreement that we have seen for others that have adopted NACS, and always good to see another automaker get on board.

下一次更新是关于北美充电标准(NACS)的，因此捷豹宣布他们将采用这一标准。显然，他们在电动车市场中并不是最重要的参与者，但他们将从2025年开始采用该标准，并在其之前一段时间提供超级充电桩适配器，基本上与其他采用NACS的汽车制造商达成的协议相同。总体上来说，看到另一家汽车制造商加入电动车行列总是令人欣慰的。

Next we've got a report on India, this is coming from Reuters, they say that Tesla has drawn up plans to make and sell battery storage systems in India, and submitted a proposal to officials seeking incentives to build a factory, according to two people familiar with the matter. It's not clear if this would be an alternative plan to an EV factory, or if it would be something that would happen in addition to, or just something that's completely separate from that proposal, from the article it sounds more that way, just a completely separate potential project, and then the article also mentions that Tesla did seek a number of different incentives to set up a battery storage factory, but the sources said that Indian officials had conveyed that that would not be something that would be happening, however the government could offer subsidies on the purchase of these types of energy storage products.

接下来我们有关于印度的一个报道，这是来自路透社的消息。据两名知情人士透露，特斯拉已经拟定了在印度生产和销售储能系统的计划，并向官方提交了建厂提案以寻求激励措施。目前尚不清楚这是否是替代电动汽车工厂的另一个计划，还是额外的计划，或者完全是一个独立的项目。从文章中看，更像是一个完全独立的潜在项目。文章还提到，特斯拉确实寻求了一些激励措施来建立储能工厂，但消息人士表示，印度官方已经传达了不会发生这种情况的消息，然而政府可能会对购买这类能源储存产品提供补贴。

So obviously we get a lot of these types of reports out of India, definitely Tesla in talks on a lot of these things. Over the long long term, the energy storage market, the solar market in India, these both should be very strong, so it would be exciting if Tesla can find a way to make this viable.

很显然，我们经常从印度听到这类报道，无疑特斯拉在讨论许多类似的事情。从长远来看，印度的储能市场和太阳能市场都应该非常强劲，所以如果特斯拉能找到一种可行的方式，那将是令人兴奋的。

In a continuation of all of the meetings that Elon has been having with foreign leaders, the Prime Minister of Thailand today posted on X that he had just met with Elon Musk and team during a trip to New York, says that they had a good conversation on Tesla, SpaceX, and Starlink technology and that he's impressed what the advanced group has made for humanity, and that they share a common vision for a cleaner future. He also says that we look forward to further discussions.

继埃隆与外国领导人举行的一系列会议之后，泰国总理今日在X上发帖称他刚刚在纽约会见了埃隆·马斯克及其团队，表示他们在特斯拉、SpaceX和Starlink技术方面进行了良好的交流，他对这个先进团队为人类取得的成就印象深刻，双方对于实现一个更清洁的未来有着共同的愿景。他还表示期待进一步的讨论。

Next up we may have some new insight on the updated Model 3, this is a report from Drive Tesla Canada reporting on information from the TFF Tesla forums in Europe, which I've noticed that according to the European type certificate for the Model 3, there's a new digit type in the 8th digit position of the VIN, it now lists the possibility of that place being a T, which is listed as dual motor performance. So I haven't had any time to research this yet, but it does sound like that would be a new indicator in the VIN, which would be obviously good news for the prospects of an updated Model 3 performance, which so far we haven't heard anything about. I wouldn't take that as confirmation of one yet, but possibly a good sign if this is the case.

下一步，我们可能会对更新的Model 3有一些新的了解，这是来自Drive Tesla Canada的报告，报告的信息来源于欧洲的TFF Tesla论坛。根据Model 3的欧洲型号认证，我们注意到VIN码的第8位数字类型有了新变化，现在列出了这个位置可能是T，被列为双电机性能版。所以我还没有时间去研究它，但听起来这可能是VIN码中的一个新指示，这显然对更新后的Model 3性能有利，目前我们还没有听到任何相关信息。虽然我不能把这个作为确认，但如果事实如此，这可能是一个好兆头。

Alright next we've got a new sighting of the Cybertruck, we haven't been talking about every single one of these lately, but this one's cool, this is from Kaju 11 on X, and it looks like it's a new wrap of digital blue camo for the Cybertruck, and there's a quick video of it as well. I think it looks pretty cool and most importantly demonstrates the customization possibilities that exist for the Cybertruck.

好的，接下来我们有一次新的Cybertruck目击事件，最近我们没有详细讨论每一个案例，但这次很酷，来自Kaju 11的X，看起来是给Cybertruck进行了新的数字蓝色迷彩包装，同时还有一个快速的视频。我觉得它看起来很酷，最重要的是展示了Cybertruck存在的定制可能性。

Next we've got a possible update on Giga Texas, this was a reply to Joe Tagmayer on X, who was actually saying something similar to what I was saying a couple days ago, that there is in fact a production pause right now at Texas, so just reiterating that. Anyway, somebody replied and looks like they've got some insight here saying EOL employees are returning to work already, production associates return next week, Joe replied to that saying that he could tell by the parking lot today being more active, that was already kind of the rumor, but this person does seem to have some pretty specific insight, so take it for what it's worth, maybe not a lot, but interesting nonetheless.

接下来我们有关于特斯拉德克萨斯超级工厂(Giga Texas)可能的最新消息。这是对X上的乔·塔格迈尔(Joe Tagmayer)的回复。实际上，他几天前也说了类似的话，即目前德克萨斯工厂的生产确实暂停了。所以我只是再次重申这一点。无论如何，有人回复说，已经有一些退休员工回到了工作岗位，而生产员工将在下周返回。Joe也对此发表了回复，说他今天通过停车场更加活跃这一点可以推断出。这已经有点成为传言了，但这个人似乎有一些具体的洞察力，所以无论价值多少，还是挺有趣的。

Another post on X that got some attention, this was from Chris Zhang, he said that the 4680 model wise off the shelves because the 4680 has made significant improvements with a new cell that has an energy density of nearly 290Wh per kilogram, Drew and his team have made awesome progress. There is no source cited here, we've gotten kind of mixed information in terms of accuracy from this account in the past, if we look at this one specifically, Jordan from the limiting factor has previously said that the current 4680 is somewhere around maybe 244Wh per kilogram, which would mean this would almost be 20% more energy dense, but Tesla actually just gave us an update on this on the Q2 earnings call, Drew said that they're currently working on the cyber cell and that is about 10% higher energy density than the current production, so maybe current production had already taken a step up from what we had previously seen with the 4680 cell, and then maybe that's jumping 10% up to where this 290Wh per kilogram figure is, but without that layer of assumptions in there, we'd probably be looking more at somewhere in the 265, 270Wh per kilogram for the cyber cell, so this one I'm not putting a lot of weight in.

这是一个关于X的帖子，引起了一些注意，克里斯·张说4680型号由于其具有新单元的显著改进，已经大量下架，该单元的能量密度接近每公斤290Wh，德鲁和他的团队取得了惊人的进展。这里没有引用任何来源，我们之前对这个账号的准确性获得了一些混合信息，如果我们具体看这个问题，来自限制因素的乔丹此前曾表示当前的4680型号大约在每公斤244Wh左右，这意味着这个新单元的能量密度将几乎比当前单元高出20%，但特斯拉在第二季度收益电话会议上刚刚向我们更新了这个情况，德鲁表示他们目前正在研发塞博尔单元，其能量密度比目前生产的单元高10%，所以也许目前的生产已经从我们之前看到的4680单元水平上提升了一步，然后可能跃升10%至每公斤290Wh的水平，但如果不加入那些推测，可能我们更应该看向每公斤265、270Wh的塞博尔单元，所以我对这个评论不抱太大希望。

Alright, last couple of updates, we do have a post on X from Elon about the ramp of the H100 cluster, GPUs that we had talked about. Elon did mention this before, but again, he is noting that bringing up a large training cluster of H100s is currently extremely difficult, same was true of A100s when they first came out, but now they run smoothly. So although Tesla has talked about turning this on, it's a good reminder that it is going to take time to ramp up, which actually fits a little bit better with the forecast that they had previously given us in terms of compute capabilities and the growth in that over time.

好的，最近一些更新，我们有一个来自埃隆对于H100集群的扩容中心的帖子，这正是之前我们讨论过的显卡。埃隆之前曾经提到过这个问题，但是他再次强调目前启动一个大型的H100训练集群非常困难，A100刚开始发布时也是如此，但现在都已经能够平稳运行了。所以尽管特斯拉已经谈论过启用这个集群，这是一个很好的提醒，它需要时间来扩容，这与他们之前给出的计算能力和增长预测更加吻合。

Last item for today then, an interesting update out of Australia, CATL has been awarded contracts for more than $1 billion worth of battery storage projects by the government of West Australia, so it looks like they're going to be doing an 800 megawatt hour project and another 2000 megawatt hour or 2 gigawatt hour project as well. So interesting to see this, I think the energy storage market is a little bit more difficult for all of us to track, and this serves as a good reminder that there are other players, including a company that's obviously major supplier for Tesla, that is in this space. So just when we think about margin expectations and things like that on the energy business, that is something that is definitely worth keeping in mind.

今天的最后一条新闻，澳大利亚有一则有趣的更新信息，宁德时代电池公司已被西澳大利亚政府获得了超过10亿美元价值的电池储能项目合同，所以看起来他们将开展一个800兆瓦小时的项目，还有一个2000兆瓦小时或2吉瓦小时的项目。看到这个消息真的很有趣，我认为储能市场对我们来说有点难以跟踪，这是一个很好的提醒，说明还有其他参与者，包括显然是特斯拉的主要供应商的这家公司。因此，当我们考虑能源业务的利润预期等问题时，这是一个绝对值得记住的事情。

Alright, that is it for today then, as always, thank you for listening, make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications, and also find me on X at Tesla podcast, and we'll see you tomorrow for the Friday September 22 episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

好的，今天就到这里了，一如既往地感谢你的聆听，确保你已经订阅并开启了通知，并在X上找到我发布的Tesla播客，明天我们将在9月22日周五的Tesla Daily节目中再见。谢谢你。