Tesla’s Next-Level Casting Plans, Vehicle Updates, UAW Strike
发布时间 2023-09-16 00:20:24 来源
摘要
➤ Tesla reportedly developing next level casting for new vehicle platform
➤ Giga Mexico report
➤ Cybertruck delivery info
➤ Tesla removes 4680 Model Y
➤ Updated Model 3s spotted at port
➤ Tesla exec shares Autobidder profit details
➤ Tesla adds new referral program award
➤ UAW begins strike
➤ PPI / Calendar
➤ Isaacson interview: https://youtu.be/eXonrPDVesc
0:00 Intro / TSLA
0:51 Next-gen casting
5:58 Giga Mexico
6:40 Cybertruck update
7:24 4680 Model Y dropped
8:34 Model 3 update
9:18 Autobidder
11:13 50k Supercharger
11:55 Referral program
13:22 UAW strike
15:09 PPI / FOMC
16:28 Closing thoughts
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Executive producer Jeremy Cooke
Executive producer Troy Cherasaro
Executive producer Andre/Maria Kent
Executive producer Jessie Chimni
Executive producer Michael Pastrone
Executive producer Richard Del Maestro
Executive producer John Beans
Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives
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Hey everybody Rob Maurer here, happy Friday today we've got some catching up to do after the Walter Isaacson interview yesterday. We've got some very interesting details on Tesla's next generation vehicle platform, some vehicle updates, the UAW has commenced its strike, and a few other items as well.
大家好,我是罗布·莫尔,今天周五,我们需要补充一些昨天沃尔特·艾萨克森采访的内容。我们得到了一些关于特斯拉下一代车辆平台和一些车辆更新的非常有趣的细节,美国汽车工人联合会(UAW)已经开始了罢工,并且还有其他一些内容。
Alright, looking at the stock, not a bad day for Tesla today, down 6 cents of a percent closing at $274.39, the NASDAQ down 1.6%, so actually a pretty decent overperformance from Tesla relative to the broader market. However, interestingly with the UAW strike, Tesla was actually outperformed by Ford, GM, and Stellantis today. So not sure exactly what interpretation the market is taking there with the strike, you would presume that this would be something that would be negative for them, probably a positive for Tesla, though that's a little bit up for debate, but nevertheless those stocks seeming outperformed today.
好的,看着股票,对于特斯拉来说,今天并不是一个糟糕的日子,股价下跌了0.006美元,收盘价为274.39美元,纳斯达克指数下跌了1.6%,所以相对于整个市场来说,特斯拉表现得非常不错。然而,有趣的是,在UAW罢工中,特斯拉实际上在今天的表现被福特、通用汽车和斯泰拉蒙所超越。所以对于市场对于罢工的解读我并不确定,你本以为这对他们来说可能是负面的,对特斯拉可能是正面的,尽管这还有一些争议,但不管怎样,那些股票在今天似乎表现优异。
Alright, kind of an interesting headline here from Reuters today as we get into the news, they say Tesla's reinvented car making with quiet breakthrough. So it's a nice headline, I'll take that.
好的,我们来看一下今天来自路透社的一个有趣标题。他们说特斯拉通过革命性突破重新定义了汽车制造。这是一个不错的标题,我接受。
If we get into the article, what this article is about is for Tesla's next generation vehicle, Tesla's plans to do a single frame, single large frame, unibody, unibody casting for the next generation vehicle. So this is something, you know, that this is something that's been on the roadmap or sort of the hypothetical roadmap for Tesla for years. If we go back all the way to 2019, as we have talked about, as we've talked about many times on the podcast, Tesla had filed a patent application back in 2019 for a multi directional unibody casting machine for a vehicle frame. So if we zoom in a bit on this photo, we can see what Tesla kind of had in mind at that time. Obviously, Elon has talked about how he wants vehicles to just be essentially like making a toy car, which would be sort of done the same way, obviously at a very, very, very small scale, but you know, this has been something again that Tesla has talked about for years. If they are now implementing this, I'm sure it's come a long way from their initial thoughts. You know, even the application here was actually 2018, I think the beginning of 2018, which shows, you know, how far back this is sort of gone in terms of Tesla's sort of thought process. So we've seen them implement that now with front castings with rear castings, but this would combine both of those and the middle underbody where the structural battery would be so sort of the the holy grail of castings could still be on the table.
如果我们深入阅读这篇文章,这篇文章是关于特斯拉下一代车辆的,特斯拉计划为下一代车辆采用单一框架、单一大框架、整体车身、整体铸造。所以,这是一件,你知道的,这是特斯拉多年来在路线图上或假设性路线图上一直在思考的事情。如果我们回溯到2019年,正如我们在播客中多次提到过的,特斯拉在2019年就为车辆车架申请了一项多方向整体铸造机的专利申请。所以,如果我们把这张照片放大一点,我们可以看到特斯拉当时的想法。显然,埃隆谈到了他希望车辆就像制作玩具车一样,这将以非常非常小的比例完成,但是这是特斯拉多年来一直在谈论的事情。如果他们现在正在实施这个想法,我相信它已经从最初的想法发展了很长时间。实际上,这个专利申请甚至是在2018年初,这显示了特斯拉思考的时间线有多长。我们已经看到他们通过前部铸件和后部铸件来实施了这一想法,但是这将结合这两者以及结构性电池所在的中央底盘,所以完美的铸件宝藏仍然可能会出现。
So basically what we're just saying is they've got five different sources that are telling them that Tesla is working on this, which is, you know, obviously very exciting. If this does happen, they say Tesla's expected to make a decision on whether the die cast for this platform to use the die cast in one piece for this platform as soon as this month, according to three of those five sources. And even if they do press ahead with end products, even if they do press ahead with this giant casting machine, the end product could change during the design validation process. So that's actually what causes a little bit of the, I guess, concern or hesitancy to just generally do what Tesla may have in mind here.
基本上,我们所说的是,他们有五个不同的消息来源告诉他们特斯拉正在开展这项工作,这显然是非常令人兴奋的。如果真的发生这种情况,根据这五个消息来源中的其中三个,他们说特斯拉预计将在本月决定是否为这个平台使用一体式的压铸件。即使他们继续推进最终产品,即使他们继续推进这台巨大的压铸机,最终产品在设计验证过程中也可能发生变化。所以这其实是导致人们对特斯拉可能在这里做的事情有些担忧或犹豫的原因。
So the rest of the order, the rodeers article kind of talks about how Tesla would be working with industrial sand and 3D printers and using that industrial sand to essentially make a a test mold that then they could eventually convert into a full metal mold for the actual production process. Because if they do it with metal initially, any single change that they make might cost anywhere from $100,000 up to $1.5 million. And if you're doing that a lot of times, obviously that adds up. So what they detail is sort of Tesla's iterative process and how they've come to find that industrial sand may be working good enough for those molds to minimize those sort of you know, readjustment costs that might be included, which are obviously potentially going to be pretty significant with such a massive, massive casting.
因此,接下来的订单,罗德尔斯的文章谈到了特斯拉将与工业砂和3D打印机合作,利用这种工业砂制作一个测试模具,然后最终将其转换成用于实际生产过程的金属模具。因为如果他们一开始就用金属制作,任何一次修改可能需要花费从10万美元到150万美元不等的费用。而且如果你这样做很多次,显然这些费用会累积起来。他们详细介绍了特斯拉的迭代过程,以及他们发现工业砂可能足够好用来减少这些调整成本,而这些成本对于如此庞大的铸造过程来说显然可能非常显著。
So pretty interesting and obviously a very high level of detail here or you know, low level depending on how you interpreted it. But a lot of details here on what Tesla's plans are, which I think gives credibility to the report in general about Tesla going down this path.
非常有趣,显然这些细节非常详尽,或者说这些细节取决于你的理解水平。但是这里有很多关于特斯拉计划的详细信息,我认为这增加了关于特斯拉走上这条路的报告的可信度。
They do give a couple of details just on the next generation platform. They say the kind of small cars Tesla's developing, one for personal use and the other a robot taxi, don't have big overhangs at the front and the back as there is not much of a hood or rear trunk. So the reason they say that is because that could minimize, you know, the material or the size of the castings that would be needed, which would help make this more feasible. But also just kind of interesting for us to have those details as obviously we've started to see at least a couple of concept images for that robot taxi vehicle.
他们确实透露了有关下一代平台的一些细节。他们表示,特斯拉正在开发的这种小型车,一辆用于个人使用,另一辆是机器人出租车,前后都没有很大的悬挂顶,因为车头和后备箱都不大。所以他们这么说的原因是因为这样可以尽量减少需要的材料或铸件的大小,从而使这更具可行性。但对我们来说也很有趣,因为我们至少已经开始看到了一些有关这个机器人出租车的概念图像。
Tesla still has to make the call on what kind of kick press they would use, but they say that Tesla would need something in the range of about 16,000 tons or more in terms of the clamping press for the casting machine for such a massive project like this. Again, this is coming from, you know, three to five different sources that have seemingly some pretty detailed information here. So obviously Tesla started out with sort of the 6,000 ton press moving up to the 9,000 ton press right now for the cyber truck. This would be moving again to the next level, a pretty significant jump up to potentially 16,000 tons or more if this report is accurate.
特斯拉还需要决定使用何种压铸机,但他们表示,对于如此大规模的项目,特斯拉需要约16,000吨或更多的夹紧压力来进行铸造。再次强调,这是来自3到5个不同来源的信息,似乎提供了相当详细的信息。所以很明显,特斯拉起初使用了6000吨的压铸机,目前改为9000吨的压铸机用于Cybertruck。如果这份报告准确无误,他们将再次向更高级别发展,将会进行相当大的跃升,达到可能是16,000吨或更多的夹紧压力。
So again, it sounds like this is something that is being decided on basically right now, whether Tesla pursues this, it doesn't really give us much information on what the other options would be if they don't. But I think we can kind of imagine that it would be front and rear cast and then maybe something different from the middle. But let's hope that this works out well for Tesla and we do end up getting to see this. I think we all would be very excited and can look forward to watching the parts be imported and all the fun stuff that we had with the 9,000 ton presses getting installed at Giga Texas. So definitely keep an eye on that and exciting to have that report from Raiders.
所以再次,听起来这似乎是目前正在决定的事情,无论特斯拉是否追求这个事情,它并没有给我们太多关于如果他们不追求这个事情的其他选项的信息。但我认为我们可以想象,前后铝制零件可能会是一个选择,然后中间可能会有一些不同的东西。但让我们希望这对特斯拉来说能够顺利进行,并且我们确实能够看到这个。我认为我们都会非常兴奋,并且期待着观看这些零件被进口,以及我们之前在德克萨斯超级工厂安装9000吨压机时所经历的所有有趣的事情。所以一定要密切关注,并且很高兴能从Raiders那里得到这个报告。
One Giga Mexico. So we've been talking a bit about this over the last couple of weeks as we've had some different reports about it. Millennial now reporting that Tesla is planning to today actually deliver the letter of intent to formalize the installation and startup of Giga Mexico in New Way, Balion. So obviously, you know, as we've talked about, there have been some shifts in plans. Chinese suppliers have reported that Tesla originally had a lot of urgency and then kind of dialed it back a little bit. So we're not sure right now it kind of seems like there's less urgency, but the plans for Mexico may be a little bit bigger than they initially were.
一亿吉加墨西哥。所以在过去几周中,我们已经谈论了一些关于它的报道。Millennial现在报告说,特斯拉计划今天实际提供意向书,以正式推动吉加墨西哥在新瓦吉翁的安装和启动。显然,正如我们之前所讨论的,计划发生了一些变化。中国供应商报告称,特斯拉最初非常着急,然后稍微放缓了一些。所以我们现在不确定,看起来似乎没有那么紧迫,但墨西哥的计划可能比最初预期的更大一些。
So this doesn't give us a whole lot more information on that, but good to see at least some of the steps seeming to continue to happen.
所以这并没有给我们带来更多关于此事的信息,但至少还是能看到一些步骤似乎在继续进行,这是好事。
Alright. Next, we've just got a quick update on the Cybertruck. So someone muddy ruts on YouTube here. They were doing some off-roading and they came across a couple of the Cybertruck release candidates, talked to the drivers of this. And according to the drivers, apparently Tesla is going to be starting deliveries in October. So probably not too surprising in terms of the timeline. I think if most of us had to circle something on the calendar as a guest, that's probably what a lot of people would pick, probably the consensus right now. But interesting to hear that from Tesla, obviously plans will change and can change.
好的,接下来,我们只有关于Cybertruck的一个快速更新。在YouTube上有人在泥泞的车辙上录到了一些内容。他们进行了一些越野活动,并遇到了一些Cybertruck发布候选车辆的驾驶员。根据他们的说法,特斯拉将于十月开始交付Cybertruck。对于时间表来说,这可能并不奇怪。我想如果我们中的大多数人要在日历上选出一个日期作为猜测,这可能是很多人选择的,可能是大家目前的共识。但听到特斯拉方面的消息还是很有趣的,显然计划可能会改变。
So wouldn't necessarily put that in pen yet, but kind of interesting to hear that update. And you know, we'll hope for that date as that could be sort of within the next month or so. And then maybe related to Cybertruck, Tesla has actually dropped the sort of Model Y all-wheel drive. It's always a little bit confusing now with the names, but only the long range and the performance remain. So the 4680 sort of standard range Model Y has been actually removed from the design studio.
所以现在可能还不能完全确定这个日期,但是听到这个更新还是很有趣的。我们希望这个日期能够在接下来的一个月左右出现。还有,关于Cybertruck,特斯拉实际上取消了Model Y四驱版本的销售。现在这些车型的命名方式有点令人困惑,但现在只有长续航版和高性能版仍在销售。所以4680标准续航版的Model Y被从设计工作室中删除了。
So that is the only 4680 vehicle right now for Tesla for that to be removed, obviously with the upcoming launch of the Cybertruck could be related. Tesla said that they are using a second generation 4680 cell for the Cybertruck through Biglino on the last earnings call called a disiver cell. So how closely that would relate to what Tesla had been using here for the all-wheel drive version. It's not entirely clear, but I definitely think that timing is interesting.
目前来说,这是特斯拉唯一一款采用4680电池的车型,显然随着即将发布的Cybertruck的推出,可能会有所关联。特斯拉在上次的盈利电话会议上表示他们将为Cybertruck使用第二代4680电池,被称为disiver电池。虽然目前还不太清楚这与特斯拉现在使用的四驱版本有多大关系,但我认为这个时间点非常有趣。
And since we have seen Tesla kind of move down the price curve pretty dramatically on vehicles this year, it seems like it would be more related to something with production than it would be to something with just a manned and Tesla cutting out the lower price vehicle for that reason. So interesting and hopefully we'll get a little bit more detail on that not too far from now on earnings call, although with Tesla you never know.
由于我们看到特斯拉今年在汽车价格方面有了相当大的下降,所以似乎与生产相关的可能性更大,而不仅仅是人力和特斯拉因此取消了更低价格的车型。这很有趣,希望在盈利电话会议上我们能够得到更多细节,尽管对于特斯拉来说,你永远都不知道。
Okay, next we've got some more information on the Highland Model 3. So Wu was done a great job of following this. We've talked about how we saw kind of a few hundred of these in the gigashang high parking lot, Wu was gone out to the port now as he often does and has found a lot of these Model 3s being staged for export now at the port. So how this compares to what was in the lot, I think it's difficult to say, but clearly you know, at least a few hundred vehicles here. So hopefully a pretty good sign for how Tesla's production rate is coming along with Highland. But obviously our first big update on that will probably come in sort of the first second week of October when we do get those September production numbers. So we'll keep an eye on that, but nice to see a bunch of these ready to go to Europe.
好的,接下来我们得到了一些有关高原3号的更多信息。吴做了一个很好的工作,他一直在追踪这个项目。我们已经提到过,在吉加廊高停车场我们看到了大约几百辆这种车型,吴现在去了港口,就像他经常那样,发现了很多这种3号车正在被准备运往海外。与停车场上的情况相比,我认为很难说清楚,但显然至少有几百辆车在这里。所以希望这对高原和特斯拉的生产速度来说是一个相当不错的迹象。但是显然,我们对此的首次重大更新可能会在10月的第一二周,也就是我们得到9月生产数据的时候。所以我们会继续关注这个,但看到这批车准备好运往欧洲还是挺好的。
Next we've got a really interesting update from Rohan Ma, one of Tesla's executives on the energy team. So he shared on LinkedIn that Auto Bitter has grown into global portfolio to over 7 gigawatt hours of battery storage under direct dispatch next year. And our real time algorithms have already returned over $330 million in trading profit to early storage investors. So hopefully I think everyone here is probably familiar with Auto Bitter. But basically what they're doing is sort of energy arbitrage where Tesla could store energy that is purchased at a lower price or generated and then use Tesla's sort of artificial intelligence machine learning program with Auto Bitter to sell that during when it's going to be most cost effective to do so. So basically sort of time shifting energy usage and generating profit off of that, which is now grown to $330 million in profit. They're not saying that that is Tesla's profit, they're just saying that that is profit for the actual owners of the product. Tesla may share in that or be some additional profit above this $330 million. But I think he's just saying that in total that's sort of what it has generated. So obviously a pretty good start as Tesla continues to scale. We're still in the very early innings. It talks about 7 gigawatt hours here. You know, as Tesla's scales, the 7 gigawatt hour number is going to pretty quickly become small to where Tesla is going. So it shows you that how much additional opportunity there is here over time as this portfolio grows for Auto Bitter to grow alongside that and generate those obviously high margin revenues for energy storage. And that goes a long way in terms of advancing energy storage because if this revenue can be calculated into the ownership or sort of the cost of the project, then that's going to make the project more cost effective obviously and open up different use cases that maybe one otherwise exists. So definitely exciting to have that update from Tesla on that.
接下来我们有来自特斯拉能源团队的高管Rohan Ma的一项非常有趣的更新。他在领英上分享了Auto Bitter在明年已经发展成为全球可直接分配的7吉瓦时的电池储能组合。我们的实时算法已经为早期储能投资者带来了超过3.3亿美元的交易利润。所以希望大家对Auto Bitter可能已经非常熟悉了。基本上,他们正在做的是能源套利,特斯拉可以储存以较低价格购买或发电的能源,然后使用特斯拉的人工智能机器学习程序Auto Bitter在最具成本效益的时候出售能源。基本上就是将能源使用时间转移,从中获得利润。现在这个利润已经达到了3.3亿美元。他们并没有说这是特斯拉的利润,只是说这是产品的实际所有者的利润。特斯拉可能会分享这个利润,或者在这3.3亿美元之上获得额外的利润。但我想他只是在总体上表示这是Auto Bitter产生的利润。显然,对于特斯拉的持续扩张来说,这是一个非常好的开端。我们仍然处在非常早期的阶段。这里提到了7吉瓦时的数量。随着特斯拉的扩大,7吉瓦时的数字很快会变得微不足道。这显示了随着时间推移,Auto Bitter在成长的同时有多少额外的机会和潜力,能为能源储存带来高利润的收入。这对于推动能源储存进一步发展来说具有重要意义,因为如果这个收入可以计入项目的拥有权或成本中,那么显然会使项目变得更具成本效益,同时也会打开其他可能的用例。因此,特斯拉对此进行更新是令人兴奋的。
All right, quick other updates here. So Tesla charging, we talked yesterday about how Tesla had installed or two days ago about how Tesla installed the 50th, 50,000 supercharger. And apparently this is it. Tesla charging posting on this on X and they have designated this specifically with a red or ultra red color as the 50,000 charger. They've got a little plaque on there as well. I think I saw that this is somewhere in California. I don't have the exact location on me right now, but kind of a cool, just fun thing that Tesla did. And obviously I think it looks pretty cool as a contrast to what we normally see for the superchargers, just sort of the plain white. So I don't think I would want them to switch over all superchargers to this, but definitely cool to see it on this, you know, one milestone, unique supercharger.
好的,这里还有一些其他快速更新。所以关于特斯拉充电站,我们昨天谈过特斯拉安装了第五万个超级充电器的事情。显然这就是那个。特斯拉充电站在X上发布了这个消息,并将其以红色或超红色指定为第五万个充电器。上面还有一个小牌匾。我记得这个充电站应该在加利福尼亚的某个地方,但我现在没有确切的位置。这是特斯拉做的一件很酷的事情,应该是很有趣的。显然,与我们通常看到的普通白色超级充电器相比,我不认为我希望将所有超级充电器都换成这样的风格,但在这个具有里程碑意义和独特的超级充电器上看到这样的设计还是很酷的。
And then Tesla's also announced that they have added factory tours to the referral program. So for 15,000 referral credits, you can now attend a factory tour. So I'm just going to open up the app here and get the details. Tesla had said, or Tesla is scheduled rather, the Fremont tour, which isn't selected here, but the Fremont tour is October 26th. So it looks like they're just setting a date for this and then kind of doing everybody at once. I'm sure they will do this multiple times in the future, but October 26th for the Fremont tour, again, 15,000 credits must be 18 years or older to redeem, but you can bring three guests with you. So a total of four people for this factory tour, all guests must be eight years or older. So I think a pretty cool referral program update. Obviously this is going to be something that should be pretty low cost for Tesla that can help sort of, you know, drain, I guess, for lack of better word or get redemption of those referral credits. So again, we've talked about this with a Cybertruck delivery raffle or I guess delivery invitation through the referral program as well. Similar concept where Tesla can do this pretty low cost stuff that is actually potentially very high value for, for customers or refers. So I think it's kind of a win-win and just excited to see Tesla, you know, doing some things, creative things like this within their referral program. And hopefully that'll give, you know, people a chance to do something that maybe they've wanted to do for their whole lives. So pretty cool to see that.
然后特斯拉还宣布他们已经将厂区观光添加到了推荐计划中。所以,现在你可以用15000个推荐积分参加厂区观光。我现在要打开应用程序获取详情。特斯拉已经确定了弗里蒙特之行的日期,虽然这里没有选出来,但是弗里蒙特之行定在了10月26日。所以看起来他们只是确定了一个日期,然后一次性安排所有人。我相信他们以后会多次进行此活动,但是弗里蒙特之行的日期是10月26日,再次强调,要使用15000积分的推荐者必须年满18岁,但是你可以带着三个客人一起参观。所以总共可以带着四个人参观这个工厂,所有客人年满8岁或以上。我认为这是一个相当酷的推荐计划升级。显然,这对特斯拉来说应该是一个低成本的项目,可以帮助他们兑换这些推荐积分。所以我们已经在以前讨论过这个问题,还有通过推荐计划获得赠送或邀请购买Cybertruck的抽奖活动。类似的概念,特斯拉可以以较低成本提供非常高价值的服务给顾客或推荐者。我认为这是一种双赢的方式,很高兴看到特斯拉在他们的推荐计划中做出了一些创意活动。希望这会给人们一个机会去做他们一生都梦想做的事情。所以看到这一点真的很酷。
And the next we, we do have the official UAW strikes. So we've talked a number of times about this over the last couple of weeks coming into the September 14th deadline that has now passed. UAW is striking at all three automakers, generators, Ford and Stellantis. So they are not all employees are not strike right now. It's about 10% in total, specifically targeted at factories that the UAW feels will be impactful. Though I did read right now they have avoided the sort of truck plants. So not sure exactly why they would do that, but trying to target some specific factories to presumably maximize the impact of this strike at this point. And right now the two sides remain according to the offers that are on the table. A little bit far apart, looks like the UAW is looking for about a 36% raise it for four years. So far the automakers have generally offered about 20%. So still a little bit of ways to go in terms of narrowing that gap. But we'll see how long this continues for. Obviously, if this goes on for a long period of time, this is going to put pressure on all these automakers in terms of production, in terms of cash flow, as they'll probably need to continue to bring in parts from suppliers and things like that. So they've built up inventory, finished goods inventory at dealerships as we have talked about. So they've got that going for them. But it's going to be very interesting to watch how this plays out. And obviously this will have repercussions throughout the automotive industry, throughout the economy, especially in the United States as this goes on. So it'll be interesting and the results of the negotiations here could set benchmarks for what Tesla employees seek over time as well. So even though Tesla, obviously not unionized, there are some potential effects there in terms of the baseline that Tesla is working with as well. So again, it'll be interesting to see how that plays out.
下一步,我们有官方的美国汽车工人联合会罢工。在过去几周中,我们多次讨论到了9月14日的最后期限,现在这个期限已经过去了。美国汽车工人联合会罢工涉及到三家汽车制造商,即通用、福特和斯泰兰蒂斯。所以并非所有的雇员都在罢工。目前大约有10%的雇员参与了罢工,主要集中在美国汽车工人联合会认为有影响力的工厂。尽管我看到他们目前避免了某些卡车工厂,但我不确定他们为什么这样做,可能是想集中攻击某些具体的工厂,以最大程度地影响罢工的效果。目前双方仍然存在一些差距,根据目前摆在桌面上的提议来看。看起来美国汽车工人联合会希望获得为期四年的36%加薪。而汽车制造商目前一般都提供了大约20%的加薪。所以在缩小这一差距方面还有一些工作要做。但我们将看到罢工会持续多久。显然,如果罢工持续很长时间,这将对所有汽车制造商在生产和现金流方面施加压力,因为他们可能需要继续从供应商那里购买零部件等等。正如我们之前所讨论的,他们在经销商处已经准备了一定数量的成品库存。但这看起来将非常有趣,我们将看到这个过程如何发展。显然这将对整个汽车行业、整个经济产生影响,尤其是在美国。因此,这将是一个有趣的议题,这次谈判的结果也可能为特斯拉员工随后的谈判设定了基准。尽管特斯拉显然没有工会,但在此基础上也可能有一些潜在的影响。所以,看看这将如何发展会非常有趣。
Yesterday, or I guess Wednesday, we did, well Thursday, yesterday we did see the producer price index released. That actually came in a little bit higher than expected on the headline number at least. So that was a 0.7% increase, which was higher than the 0.4% estimate.
昨天,或者我猜星期三,我们看到了出口生产者价格指数发布的消息。实际上,这一数据在整体数字上略高于预期。因此,它增长了0.7%,高于0.4%的估计值。
The biggest month again, you can see there since June of last year. So came in a little bit higher than expectation, but largely driven by energy costs, I believe with core coming in at just a 2%, or sorry, 0.2% increase, which was in line with the estimate.
再次是最大的一个月,您可以从去年6月以来就能看到。所以比预期稍微高了一点,但主要是由能源成本驱动的,我相信核心部分仅增长了2%(或者抱歉,应为0.2%增长),这与估计值相符。
So pretty similar to the CPI report, or sorry, pretty similar to the CPI report where the headline came in a little bit high from those energy costs. That being said, even with that higher than expected results, if we look at the FedWatch tool here from CME Group, expectations for the Fed meeting next week have largely stayed where they've been for a while, even becoming a little bit more solidified in the expectation for a pause. Those expectations now sitting at 99%.
非常类似于CPI报告或者抱歉,与CPI报告非常相似,其中头条新闻稍微偏高,主要是因为能源成本。话虽如此,即使结果高于预期,如果我们从CME Group的FedWatch工具中观察,对于下周的联储会议的预期基本保持不变,甚至更加坚定地预计将会暂停加息。这些预期目前已经达到了99%。
So we'll see the FOMC meeting as we look at the calendar for next week is scheduled for Wednesday. So we'll get the interest rate decision at that point, the Fed statement, and then probably most impactful this time since expectations are so isolated in that one result, as long as that is the result, which seems likely, then probably most of the reaction would be from whatever Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says during that conference. So we'll see on that.
所以我们会在下周的日历中注意到,FOMC会议定在星期三举行。因此,在那个时候我们将得到利率决定,美联储声明,而且这一次由于市场对结果有着非常独立的预期,所以影响可能会最为显著。只要结果符合预期(这似乎很可能发生),那么大部分的反应可能会来自美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在会议期间的讲话。所以这方面我们拭目以待。
And then the last thing, just if you didn't have a chance to check out the Walter Isaacson interview yesterday, make sure you go back and check that out. I thought it was interesting what he had to say about sort of the next generation vehicle platform, and I'll just leave that as a little bit of a teaser for those that haven't watched it yet, but that are up and up for today.
还有最后一件事,如果你昨天没有机会看沃尔特·艾萨克森的访谈,请务必回去看一下。我认为他对于下一代车辆平台的看法很有意思,对于那些还没有看过但对今天相关内容感兴趣的人,我只会给出一个小小的提示。
So as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you subscribe and sign up for notifications. You can also find me on X at Tesla podcast. And we'll see you next week for the September 18th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.
感谢您一如既往地聆听。请确保订阅并开启通知。您也可以在特斯拉播客平台上找到我。下周我们将为您带来九月十八日的特斯拉日报节目。谢谢。