Why is Argentina’s economy such a mess? - YouTube

In a small office in Buenos Aires, a black market deal is underway. If they're caught, those involved could end up in jail. But it's not drugs or weapons being sold. It's money.

在布宜诺斯艾利斯的一间小办公室里，正在进行一笔黑市交易。如果被抓到，参与其中的人可能会被送进监狱。但所售卖的并不是毒品或武器，而是钱。

Despite the risks, deals like this are commonplace in Argentina's capital. And they are one in a long list of economic woes, like hyperinflation.

尽管存在风险，类似这样的交易在阿根廷首都非常常见。这些交易只是阿根廷面临的经济问题长列表中的一个，比如恶性通货膨胀。

President Menem inherited a country in economic and social disorder. Bank runs. Even an ex-president found guilty of defrauding the state.

梅内姆总统继承了一个经济和社会秩序混乱的国家。银行挤兑事件频发，甚至连一位前总统也被判有罪，涉嫌欺诈国家。

For another situation, it has this Mr. trial, it's a witch hunt. The problem is that, as we normally say, Argentina is a country that never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

在另一种情况下，有这个名为Mr.的审判，简直就是一次巫狩般的追捕。问题在于，正如我们通常所说的那样，阿根廷是一个从不放过任何失去机会的机会的国家。

Argentine's frustration with the economic dysfunction saw the rise of a radical presidential hopeful. In the 2023 election.

阿根廷对经济失调的沮丧感促使一位激进的总统候选人崛起。在2023年选举中。

The money is still in the country. The money is still in the country. Javier Millet wants to dollarize the economy, a move he says would blow up the central bank. But the change that Argentina needs will take more than one man.

这笔钱仍然在国内。这笔钱仍然在国内。哈维尔·米勒特希望美元化经济，他说这将摧毁国家中央银行。但阿根廷所需的改变需要的不止一个人。

The main reason Argentina's economy is so chaotic is because of consistent economic mismanagement over decades. Without big solutions, things could get much worse.

阿根廷经济混乱的主要原因是数十年来一直存在的经济管理不善。如果没有大的解决方案，情况可能会变得更加糟糕。

Events of the past few years have been difficult for the world economy. This is going to be a tough year, tougher than the year we live behind. This financial storm hit when Argentina was already in peril.

过去几年的事件对世界经济来说是困难的。这将是一个艰难的年份，比我们刚刚度过的那一年更加艰难。这场金融风暴在阿根廷已然陷入困境时袭来。

To understand how bad it is for South America's second largest country, take a look at inflation. Countries like Britain have experienced annual price rises on par with the world average, in high single digits. Argentina's inflation hasn't been that low in decades. The rate has been higher than 100% for almost all of 2023. Right now only Venezuela and Lebanon have higher rates. It's really hard to kind of just imagine what that's like.

要理解南美洲第二大国的状况有多糟糕，可以看看通货膨胀率。例如英国这样的国家，每年的物价上涨幅度与全球平均水平相当，通常在个位数的高位。而阿根廷的通胀率数十年来一直没有那么低过。从2023年开始，几乎整年的通胀率都超过了100%。现在只有委内瑞拉和黎巴嫩的通胀率更高。我们很难想象这是什么样子。

For some people, they just can't make ends meet anymore. Inflation this high forces many Argentines to get creative. Argentines save in dollars, because saving in local currency, in a local bank, has been a recipe for disasters. Even this isn't easy. Right now, Argentines can only legally buy $200 a month at the official exchange rate. That has created a vast black market for currency. Dealers line the streets of the city centre, while people hoard stashes of cash at home. But buying dollars on the black market is more expensive than the official rate. El Flaco is one of a handful of bosses in Argentina's currency black market. He's agreed to talk to us on condition of anonymity. He claims the black market has tacit approval.

对于一些人来说，他们已经无法维持生计了。如此高的通货膨胀迫使许多阿根廷人变得富有创造力。阿根廷人以美元储蓄，因为在当地银行以本地货币储蓄已成为灾难的谱写。即使如此也并不容易。目前，阿根廷人每个月只能以官方汇率购买200美元。这导致了庞大的黑市货币交易。交易商在市中心的街道上排队等候，人们则在家中囤积现金。但是在黑市上购买美元的价格比官方汇率要贵。El Flaco是阿根廷黑市外汇的几个头目之一。他同意在保持匿名的条件下与我们交谈。他声称黑市得到了默许。

The GDP of $630 billion is one of the largest economies in South America. But this booming black market is a symptom of just how bad things are, and the roots of the problem run deep. The main reason Argentina's economy is where it is today is historical. Once one of the richest countries in the world, there are many reasons behind Argentina's decline, including the legacy of this man, Juan Domingo Perón, elected president in 1946.

阿根廷的国内生产总值为6300亿美元，是南美洲最大的经济体之一。但这个蓬勃发展的黑市只是问题严重的一个症状，问题的根源深远。阿根廷经济发展至今如此遭受困境的主要原因是历史造成的。曾经是世界上最富裕的国家之一，背后有许多原因导致了阿根廷的衰落，其中包括胡安·多明戈·佩隆（Juan Domingo Perón）的历史遗留问题。

He came to power after having been inspired by Mussolini's fascist Italy. Basically what he took from fascism was a strong state that's very intrusive, a strong emphasis on nationalism. And he combined that with also having a very strong labour movement. He introduced the eight-hour workday, increased wages for the poor, and created vast, expensive welfare schemes. He also embraced economic isolationism. The emphasis on national sovereignty led to kind of a coddling of workers by protecting them from foreign competition that has shut itself off from international trade. Today, Argentine politics is still dominated by his legacy. Peronists have been in power for 16 of the past 20 years.

他在受到墨索里尼的法西斯主义意识形态启发后上台执政。基本上，他从法西斯主义中汲取了强大的国家干涉力和极强的民族主义。同时，他还结合了非常强大的劳工运动。他推出了八小时工作制，增加了穷人的工资，建立了庞大而昂贵的福利计划。他也采取了经济的孤立主义。强调国家主权导致他对工人有些溺爱，保护他们免受国际贸易的竞争。今天，阿根廷政治仍然受到他的影响。佩隆派在过去20年中大部分时间都执政达16年之久。

One of the issues with peronism is that they haven't evolved with globalization and with the world. Argentina's exports have shrunk as a percentage of global exports year after year. In the mining sector, Argentina has one of the largest reserves of lithium, and also it's very rich in copper, just to think that Chile is the biggest copper exporter in the world. And Argentina produces zero copper, and we share the same mountains.

泛泛主义面临的一个问题是它没有与全球化和世界同步发展。阿根廷的出口份额在全球出口中逐年萎缩。在采矿行业，阿根廷拥有全球最大的锂储量，同时还富有铜资源，这让人难以置信，因为智利是世界上最大的铜出口国。而阿根廷却一点铜也没有生产，我们与他们山相连。

As well as remaining isolated from the world economy, the government also still hugely overspends. On things like price subsidies. The average European spends around $40 a month on electricity. The average Argentine spends $5, eight times less. In 2022 alone, this cost the government $12.5 billion, around 2% of Argentina's GDP. But government largesse goes beyond welfare. Of the 13 million people in formal employment in Argentina, over a third of them are employed by the state itself. A lot of spending goes on paying salaries and pensions. You actually wanted to go on things like investment, technology, infrastructure, helping the poor rather than paying public wages.

除了与世界经济保持孤立状态，政府的开支也依然极度超支，尤其是用于价格补贴等方面。平均而言，欧洲人每月在电费上花费大约40美元，而平均而言，阿根廷人每月只花费5美元，相当于欧洲人的八分之一。仅在2022年，这使得政府损失了125亿美元，相当于阿根廷国内生产总值的2%左右。但政府的慷慨并不仅限于福利方面。在阿根廷的1300万正式就业人口中，超过三分之一是由政府直接雇佣的。大量开支用于支付工资和养老金。您实际上希望这些开支用于投资、技术、基础设施以及帮助穷人，而不是支付公共工资。

All of this points to the main issue in Argentina's economy. Argentina has been running a fiscal deficit for the last 13 years. If you're in a difficult time for 13 years in a row, well, you have a big problem. Policies to counteract this deficit, like printing money, only make things worse. Governments have become dependent on the central bank printing money to basically finance spending. And the more money you print, the worse inflation gets.

所有这些都指向了阿根廷经济的主要问题。在过去13年里，阿根廷一直存在财政赤字。如果你连续13年都处于困境，那么说明你有一个很大的问题。像印钞这样的政策只会让情况变得更糟。政府已经变得依赖中央银行印钞票来基本上资助支出。而印钞的数量越多，通货膨胀就越严重。

Local shopkeeper Martha Baldess feels the direct impact of more money being pumped into the system. I've got the name of it. Me, the name, the name, the name, the name, the name, the name, the name, the name. Putting more money into circulation can mean it's worth less. There are no more money in Brazil. We have a lot of money in Brazil. It's worth less than $2,000. We have a lot of money in Brazil. And in Brazil, there are no more money in Brazil. We have a lot of money in Brazil. And we have a lot of money in Brazil.

当更多的资金注入到体系中时，当地商店老板Martha Baldess能够直接感受到其影响。我已经想出了它的名字。我，名字，名字，名字，名字，名字，名字，名字，名字。增加流通的资金可能意味着其价值下降。巴西没有多余的钱了。我们在巴西有很多钱。其价值不到2000美元。我们在巴西有很多钱。在巴西，没有多余的钱了。我们在巴西有很多钱。我们在巴西有很多钱。

Printing money is only one way the government tries to fund it's spending. Another is borrowing. So Argentina has borrowed a lot of money, but it has also defaulted so many times that people don't want to lend it money anymore. Despite the risks, there's one institution that continues to lend. It's a very important thing to do. Today, Argentina's debt to the IMF is more than double that of Egypt, the second highest borrower. All told, Argentina holds almost a third of all of the IMF's total lending. One of the criticisms that most economists have opposed to the IMF is that the conditionality that they put to Argentina was so, so light. They didn't need to stabilize the economy. They didn't need to do any homework and they received money. I think that was another missed opportunity for Argentina.

打印货币只是政府资金支出的一种方式，另一种方式是借贷。因此，阿根廷已经借了很多钱，但它也多次违约，以至于人们不愿意再借钱给它了。尽管存在风险，但有一个机构仍然继续借贷。这是一件非常重要的事情。如今，阿根廷欠国际货币基金组织的债务已经超过了第二大借款人埃及的两倍。总体而言，阿根廷几乎占了国际货币基金组织总借贷的三分之一。大多数经济学家对国际货币基金组织的批评之一是，他们对阿根廷提出的条件非常轻松。他们不需要稳定经济。他们不需要做任何准备工作就能得到资金。我认为这是阿根廷又一个错失的机会。

Borrowing and printing money are not unusual tactics for governments, but the extent that Argentina's government does both is extreme and damaging. In part because loans from the IMF need to be repaid in foreign currency. And one tactic Argentina employs to get that foreign currency only complicates things more. Trade restrictions. Soybeans are one of the country's biggest exports. The soybean producer in Argentina, they face an export tax of 33%. If a tone of soybean costs, say, $500, I receive $500 minus 33%. Leaving the farmer with $335, they then have to exchange these dollars for pesos on the official exchange rate. When the dollar rate is bad, farmers have to make harsh decisions. The incentive is to keep your soybeans in your silos until the exchange rate changes. If everybody does that, the supply of dollars in the economy is scarce, so the government invented something that we call the soybean dollar. The soy dollar is a slightly better exchange rate specifically for profits on soy exports, but it's not the only market with confusing rules. If you want to organize a concert in Argentina and bring a British singer, you have to pay the official dollar and then an extra tax. We call it the dollar call play. If you want to travel abroad, you use your Argentine credit card and you pay the official dollar plus taxes. And we call that the dollar Qatar. This idea of having 10, 15, 20 different prices for the same thing. Doesn't make any sense. That's a distortion.

借债和印钞对政府来说并不是什么不寻常的手段，但阿根廷政府所采取的这种手段的程度是相当极端和破坏性的。部分原因是因为从国际货币基金组织（IMF）获得的贷款需要以外币偿还。而阿根廷为获取这种外币而采取的一种策略只会使事情变得更加复杂，那就是贸易限制。大豆是该国最大的出口产品之一。阿根廷的大豆生产者面临着33%的出口税。如果一吨大豆的成本是500美元，那么他们将获得500美元减去33%，即剩下335美元。然后他们必须按照官方汇率将这些美元兑换成比索。当美元汇率不好时，农民不得不做出艰难的决定。他们的动力是将大豆存放在储粮库中，直到汇率发生变化。如果每个人都这样做，经济中的美元供应将变得稀缺，所以政府发明了我们所称之为豆比索的东西。豆比索是一个稍微好一点的汇率，专门用于大豆出口的利润，但这并不是唯一一个规则混乱的市场。如果你想在阿根廷组织一场音乐会并邀请一位英国歌手，你必须支付官方汇率外加额外的税款。我们称之为汇率打折。如果你想出国旅行，你使用你的阿根廷信用卡，需要支付官方的美元加税款。我们称之为汇率打折。对于同一件事情有10、15、20个不同的价格，这种想法毫无意义。这是一种扭曲的现象。

With a set of distortions, it's impossible that Argentina grows. Over the years, different presidents have proposed different solutions to the economic conundrum. But the outcome tends to be the same, more debt and more inflation. It's the most important thing. It's really, really hard to fix Argentina's economy. And that's because many of the things that we've talked about are linked. Everybody agrees the government needs to spend less. One way to do that is by reducing subsidies. But if you do that, you're going to push up inflation. Everyone knows the currency needs to be devalued, but if you devalue the currency, that will also push up inflation. So it's really hard because tackling one part of the puzzle means that things could get much worse before they actually get better.

在存在一系列扭曲情况下，阿根廷的经济增长是不可能的。多年来，不同的总统提出了不同的解决经济困境的方案。但结果往往是一样的，更多的债务和更多的通货膨胀。这是最重要的事情。修复阿根廷经济真的非常非常困难。这是因为我们所讨论的很多问题都是联系在一起的。大家都同意政府需要减少开支。其中一种方法就是减少补贴。但如果这样做，将会推高通货膨胀。每个人都知道货币需要贬值，但如果贬值货币，也会推高通货膨胀。因此，这真的很困难，因为解决谜题的一部分意味着事情在真正变好之前可能会变得更加糟糕。

As the 2023 presidential election approaches, it will be difficult to convince a disillusioned population that short-term pain will bring long-term prosperity. In the same way, we have to pay attention to the economy. The real part of the problem is trust. If Argentina cannot win back the trust of its citizens or the trust of the markets, it's never going to be able to fix its problem. And in order to build trust, you need to have good policies for decades, not just for a few years, not just for one government.

随着2023年总统选举的临近，很难说服一个失望的民众，告诉他们短期的痛苦将带来长期的繁荣。同样地，我们也要关注经济问题。真正的问题在于信任。如果阿根廷无法重新赢回公民和市场的信任，就无法解决自身的问题。而要建立信任，需要长期良好的政策，不仅仅是几年，也不仅仅是一个政府的时间。

Thanks for watching. 2023 is an election year here in Argentina, and I'm going to be covering it extensively. So if you want to read my coverage and watch more videos like this, please click on the link. And don't forget to subscribe.

感谢观看。2023年将是阿根廷的选举年，我将进行广泛的报道。因此，如果您想阅读我的报道并观看更多类似的视频，请点击链接。别忘了订阅哦！