Thoughts on Tesla’s 25% Drop This Month + Cybertruck, Highland Updates

Hey everybody Rob now we're here and today we've got a couple updates on Cybertruck and Project Highland. We also have an interesting new job posting from Tesla a couple things on charging and more. Looking at the stock pretty much a repeat of yesterday Tesla down 2.8% closing at $219.22. The NASDAQ yesterday was down 1.15% today down 1.17% so the rough past month continues.

大家好，现在我们在这里，今天我们将为大家带来Cybertruck和高地计划的一些更新。此外，特斯拉还发布了一份有趣的新工作职位，并有一些关于充电等方面的内容。看看股票市场，特斯拉的股价基本上与昨天相同，下跌了2.8%，收盘价为219.22美元。纳斯达克昨天下跌了1.15%，今天下跌了1.17%，所以过去一个月一直很艰难。

I did have somebody today on X ask me to talk a little bit more about the share price. I don't think there's really a whole lot to talk about that we haven't covered but it's always helpful to put things in context. So over the last month yes very tough for Tesla down about 25% the NASDAQ only down about 7% during that period.

今天有人向我提问关于股价的问题。我认为我们已经讨论了很多，没有太多剩余内容可以谈论，但把事情放在背景下总是有帮助的。所以在过去一个月里，特斯拉的股价确实非常低迷，下跌了大约25%，而纳斯达克指数在同一时期只下跌了约7%。

So a couple things obviously the market hasn't been great but during a normal period where the NASDAQ is down 7 we'd maybe expect Tesla to be down I don't know 12 15% or so. So definitely still underperforming but yet again bringing in more context if we look at growth and automotive a couple of proxies we can use for that. I like to look at ARK as a proxy for high multiple stocks not because of any particular affinity to the fund but just based off of what they invest in I think it does a decent job of capturing the sentiment around growth type of names at the moment.

所以，显然市场并不好，但在正常时期，纳斯达克下跌7%，我们可能会预计特斯拉下跌12%或15%左右。所以肯定仍然表现不佳，但如果我们再次将其放在更广泛的背景下来看增长和汽车行业的几个代理，我们可以使用这些代理来衡量。我喜欢将ARK作为高倍股票的代理，不是因为对该基金的特别喜好，而只是基于它们的投资来看，我认为它在捕捉当前增长类股票的情绪方面做得不错。

So that's down 19% over the last couple months and then bringing in automotive Ford and GM those are both down in the 15% range as well. Part of that could be attributed to UAW negotiations but that was easily anticipated well before this and because things trade in baskets and underperformance for other US automakers could contribute at least in part to an underperformance from Tesla not saying that's all of it but just pointing out that Tesla is not alone in US automaker underperformance over the last month.

所以，在过去的几个月里，这下跌了19%，然后它引入了汽车福特和通用汽车，它们的跌幅也在15%的范围内。部分原因可以归因于美国汽车工人联合会的谈判，但是在此之前就可以很容易地预见到这一点，因为这些事物都是一个篮子交易，其他美国汽车制造商的表现不佳可能至少在一定程度上造成了特斯拉的表现不佳。并不是说这就是全部原因，只是指出特斯拉并不是美国汽车制造商在过去一个月里表现不佳的唯一公司。

So it's been a tougher market it's been tougher for growth stocks it's been tougher for automakers and then coming out of earnings like we talked about that very day there just wasn't much to be excited about from that call for the third quarter specifically short-term speaking with Tesla talking about production downtime no specific date set for a Cybertruck event with margin and demand questions left a little bit open so my view on the last month you've got a combination of a tough market additional underperformance in segments that Tesla falls into and although earnings did beat expectations Tesla didn't give a whole lot to be excited about specifically for this quarter which I don't mind but short-term trading rules the day and the month oftentimes so in the absence of much other news in the presence of a tougher market I don't find it to be too surprising and of course let's not forget that we were coming off of a big run.

所以，市场变得更加困难，成长股和汽车制造商都面临更大的困难，正如我们在当天谈论的那样，第三季度的电话会议并没有令人兴奋的内容，特斯拉谈论了生产暂停，没有具体日期确定Cybertruck事件，利润和需求问题仍未解决。我对过去一个月的观点是，你会看到一个困难的市场和特斯拉所处的领域更多的表现不佳，尽管盈利超出预期，但特斯拉并没有提供太多令人兴奋的内容，特别是对于这个季度，我并不介意，但短期交易经常主导着市场。在缺乏其他重大消息的情况下，也面对市场形势的困难，我不认为这太令人惊讶，当然，我们也不能忽视我们刚刚经历了一波大涨。

Alright let's move into some other news really quick update first on Elon he has announced that he has just arrived in Japan we don't seem to have any reports yet on potential reasons for that but obviously those international visits have come with news in the past so we'll keep it out for anything more on those travels which could have interesting implications for SpaceX Tesla etc.

好的，让我们快速转入其他新闻。首先是关于埃隆的最新消息，他宣布他刚刚抵达日本，目前我们还没有关于他此行可能原因的任何报道，但显然这些国际访问过去常伴有新闻，所以我们将继续关注这些旅行，可能对SpaceX、特斯拉等产生有趣的影响。

Next we've got some updates on the adventures of Cybertruck fleets that we had talked about yesterday. Ryan from the kilowatts on X posting a photo of what appears to be about nine cybertrucks having arrived at Fremont. So yesterday when we talked about some in Arizona that were heading eastbound, that was a misstatement on that post. Those were actually headed westbound, which makes a lot more sense. So probably heading from Texas to Fremont via Arizona, probably along that same route that Tesla wants to build Tesla semi-chargers on. So if we've got nine heading to Fremont, we've got six I believe heading through Arkansas. Now I believe those are up in Illinois. Even sounds like there's at least 15 or something in that ballpark that are being transported at the moment. For what reason exactly remains unclear, but exciting nonetheless and starting to get up to numbers that could potentially portend a delivery event. I think if we don't end up seeing that happen this quarter, my current expectations based on what we're seeing would be for that to only be slipping a little bit from that third-quarter target given in the second quarter to the early fourth quarter.

接下来，我们有一些关于我们昨天谈论的Cybertruck车队的更新。kilowatts在X上的Ryan发布了一张照片，看起来大约有九辆Cybertruck已经抵达Fremont。所以当我们昨天谈论在亚利桑那州东行的一些车辆时，那是一个错误。实际上，它们是西行的，这更有意义。所以可能是从德克萨斯州经过亚利桑那州前往Fremont，可能是沿着特斯拉想要在那条路线上建设特斯拉半卡车充电站的路线。所以如果有九辆车前往Fremont，我相信有六辆正在通过阿肯色州。现在我相信那些车辆应该在伊利诺伊州。甚至听起来至少有15辆或者差不多那个数字的车正在被运输中。确切原因尚不清楚，但仍然令人兴奋，开始达到可能预示着交付活动的数字。我认为如果本季度我们不看到这一切发生，我根据我们目前所看到的情况，我的预期就是会从第三季度目标稍微滑落到第四季度初。

All right moving on from Cybertruck to Project Highland, Bloomberg is finally jumping on the reporting train for this update to Model 3. Their report is that mass production of Tesla's revamped Model 3 may start in China as soon as next month, people familiar with the matter said. Now, it's important to note that they did start that sentence saying mass production supposed to start next month. I think a lot of the confusion in the rumors or reporting has to do with whether people are talking about sort of trial production, test production, start of production, start of mass production, all of these things are different things. So it's already confusing enough and then you add translation errors on top of it which probably particularly affect that type of communication probably not surprising that it's all been a little bit confusing. But Bloomberg goes on to report that they are in the final stages of producing display vehicles which will be shipped to Tesla showrooms later in August. They say mass production set to follow, beginning as soon as September, output will ramp up through China's National Holiday which starts September 30th. And regarding the design, they say that the exterior and interior components have been changed to make the car sleeker, one of their sources said, and that the overall cost would be lower than the current iteration once production is at full capacity. So overall, I would say at least pretty similar to some of the reports that we have heard so far. The timing if this is close to accurate is definitely interesting here. With vehicles potentially being in showrooms late in August, are they gonna hold those vehicles for a whole month? Are they gonna produce these vehicles for a full month before putting them on sale? And then what about Model 3 production out of Fremont? Is that timeline gonna match? Because all of those things would add further pressure on top of what is already probably a pressured Model 3 sales figure for the third quarter, which is historically something that you would try to do at the beginning of a quarter versus the end of the quarter. Obviously, over the course of a year, a few years, it doesn't matter, but that's just kind of how the business game works sometimes. And Tesla does try to manage around that as best they can, but those quarterly deadlines also help incentivize the workforce and things like that. So I don't know. I know it's been a few tough weeks since earnings, but we should be heading into some pretty interesting weeks to come.

好的，从Cybertruck转向高原项目，彭博社终于开始报道特斯拉Model 3的最新消息。据知情人士透露，特斯拉改进后的Model 3的大规模生产可能会在下个月在中国开始。现在，值得注意的是他们在句子开头就提到了下个月可能开始大规模生产。我认为谣言或报道中的混淆是因为人们对试生产、测试生产、开始生产、开始大规模生产是否在谈论这些不同事物导致的。所以已经很令人困惑，再加上翻译错误，尤其是对这类交流很可能会产生影响，也就不足为奇了。不过彭博社接着报道称，他们正在进行制造展示车辆的最后阶段，这些车辆将在8月底前运送到特斯拉展厅。他们说，大规模生产将紧随其后，最早将在9月开始，产能将会在9月30日开始的中国国庆节期间逐步提高。至于设计方面，他们称外部和内部零部件已经进行了改变，使得车辆更加流线型，其中一位消息人士表示，总体成本一旦达到全产能的水平将会比当前版本更低。所以总体而言，我认为这至少和我们之前听到的一些报道相似。如果时间表接近准确，那肯定是很有趣的。8月底可能会有车辆在展厅展示，他们会把这些车辆保存一个整月吗？他们会在开始销售之前进行整整一个月的生产吗？那么弗里蒙特的Model 3生产呢？时间表是否会匹配？因为这些事情都会给已经在第三季度面临压力的Model 3销量增加进一步压力，历史上你会尽量在一个季度的开始而不是结束的时候去做这些事情。显然，这并不重要，但这也是商业游戏有时候的规则。特斯拉努力尽其所能管理这些事情，但季度最后期限也有助于激励员工等方面。我不知道。我知道自从财报发布以来的几个星期都很艰难，但接下来应该会是非常有意思的几个星期。

Now the other thing people were questioning today whether or not it was related to project Highland was some international design studios for their new inventory vehicles. They have a little text message there that says new vehicle coming soon. So if you're looking at a Model 3 page and you see that, it's a little bit eyebrow-raising. Is Tesla for some reason on those pages of letting people know that a new version is coming soon? Well, no, that's not the case. If we flip over to a Model Y, we can see the exact same thing. If we flip to a demo vehicle, it says demo vehicle coming soon. So this is just a description of the type of vehicle it is and that the inventory isn't actually on-site available right now but is coming soon. Tesla should probably update how that's being phrased but it doesn't have anything to do with any vehicle updates.

今天人们对于是否与高地项目有关的另一件事情产生了疑问，那就是一些国际设计工作室为他们的新车辆库存进行了一些设计。他们在那里放了一条小短信，上面写着新车即将推出。所以如果你正在查看Model 3页面，并且看到这个，会有点让人起眉毛。特斯拉为什么要在这些页面上告诉人们新版本即将推出呢？实际上并非如此。如果我们切换到Model Y页面，我们会看到完全相同的内容。如果切换到演示车辆页面，上面写着演示车辆即将推出。所以这只是对车辆类型的描述，并且库存实际上并不在现场，但很快会有车辆到来。特斯拉可能需要更新一下所使用的措辞，但这与任何车辆更新无关。

Next today we've got an interesting job listing from Tesla. Not sure who first spotted this but Tesla has listed a job in Austin for a program manager for business development and in the what you'll do section they say that this person will be responsible for leading the launch of the Tesla rental program in Texas. So hmm, that's kind of interesting. Is Tesla planning to do direct rentals, take on companies like Hertz or Turo? Seems like that could be in the works and maybe Tesla uses that to learn a little bit more about an eventual robot taxi business I think for that purpose it makes a lot of sense but for just Tesla running this themselves in the absence of that I'm not sure it would be too attractive but either way it'll be interesting to see what Tesla has planned here I think so your merit notice that Tesla's staff program manager posted on LinkedIn saying big things are happening leading to this job listing perhaps tempering expectations a little bit there does seem to be a lot of other work that is included in this job listing there's a lot of mentions of collisions and collision team talks about cost and process optimization for the collision team talks about trying to reduce repair time for all glass repairs and collision and while those things are obviously relevant for a rental business it would seem weird to combine those with the lead of the rental business if it were any other company this would make me think that those plans aren't too big but it's Tesla these employees do wear a lot of hats so can't really rule that out

今天，我们从特斯拉得到了一个有趣的招聘岗位。不确定是谁第一个注意到的，但特斯拉在奥斯汀列出了一个业务发展项目经理的职位，在“你的职责”部分中，他们说这个人将负责领导特斯拉在德克萨斯州启动租车项目。嗯，这很有趣。特斯拉计划直接提供租车服务，与赫兹或Turo等公司展开竞争吗？看起来可能正在酝酿，并且也许特斯拉通过这种方式能更多地了解未来的无人驾驶出租车业务。我觉得出于这个目的，这样做很有意义，但是在没有那种目的的情况下，我不确定这样做是否有太大吸引力。但无论如何，看看特斯拉计划了什么将会很有趣。我认为这可能是因为你留意到特斯拉的员工项目经理在领英上发布的消息，表示有重大事件正在发生，这可能导致了这个招聘岗位，或许是为了温和一下大家的期望。似乎在这个招聘岗位中还包括了很多其他工作，提到了碰撞和碰撞团队的优化成本和流程优化，谈论了尝试缩短所有玻璃维修和碰撞修理的时间，虽然这些对租车业务显然是相关的，但与领导租车业务合并起来似乎有些奇怪，如果是其他公司，我会觉得这些计划不会太大，但对特斯拉来说不一定，这些员工承担了很多角色，所以不能排除这种可能性。

all right next we've got a couple of updates on charging Tesla owners UK sharing some photos of the first UK version 4 supercharger being installed nice to see that rollout continues seems to be picking up pace and then also on charging we do have an update from JD power they have published the results of their 2023 EV experience public charging survey and unsurprisingly Tesla has again crushed the competition for DC fast charging with a survey score of 739 compared to second place charge point all the way down at 606 however for level 2 charging so Tesla destination chargers full to actually slightly edged out Tesla for that top spot 665 score versus Tesla in a close second place at 661 so probably pretty much within the margin of error but looks like there may be some opportunities for improvements specifically with destination chargers for Tesla although as we know from other surveys from JD power it's a little bit difficult to tell exactly what's causing scores to end up where they do so without seeing those full results it's a little bit difficult to understand exactly what's driving Tesla to a little bit lower score than Volta

好的，接下来我们关于特斯拉在英国车主充电方面有一些更新。首先是一些安装第一台英国版4号超级充电器的照片，很高兴看到这一推出正在继续进行，并且似乎正在加快步伐。同时，关于充电，我们还得到了JD Power的一项更新，他们公布了他们2023年电动车充电体验公共充电调查的结果。并不令人惊讶的是，特斯拉再次在直流快速充电方面击败了竞争对手，其调查得分为739，而第二名Charge Point的得分只有606。然而，在二级充电方面，特斯拉目的地充电器实际上略微领先于特斯拉，得分为665，而特斯拉则以661分紧随其后。可能基本上在误差范围内，但看起来特斯拉特斯拉可能仍有一些改进机会，尤其是目的地充电器方面。尽管我们从JD Power的其他调查中也知道，很难确切知道是什么导致得分变得低于Volta，所以如果没有看到完整的结果，就很难理解究竟是什么导致特斯拉得分略低于Volta。

and then the last couple of things for today core lithium has announced that they've received a notice from Tesla over a supply agreement in 2022 for 110,000 tons of lithium spodramine which did not materialize within the deadline for that supply agreement we don't have much information outside of that but Tesla's notice reportedly said that Tesla is prepared to take all available legal remedies unless a further agreement can be reached and then the last item for today Ford has announced via the Ford Mustang account on X that they will be making an announcement tonight at 830 p.m. Eastern time so whatever that announcement is will probably be out by the time many of you are watching this not sure if it'll be EV related or not so I'm gonna keep an eye on though Ford has teased it by saying it's time for something audacious

然后今天最后几件事情，科锂宣布他们收到了特斯拉的通知，关于2022年供应协议的一个问题，这个供应协议涉及11万吨锂辉石矿石，但没有在协议规定的期限内实现。我们除此之外没有更多的信息，但据报道，特斯拉的通知表示，除非能达成进一步的协议，否则特斯拉准备采取一切可行的法律救济措施。然后是今天最后一个事项，福特通过福特野马账号在X上宣布，他们将在晚上8:30分东部时间做出一个公告，所以无论那个公告是什么，很可能在你们看到这个视频时已经公布了。不确定是否与电动汽车相关，但我会密切关注。福特通过表示，是时候做一些大胆的事情了。

all right that'll wrap it up for today then so as always thank you for listening make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications you can also find me on X at Tesla podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Friday August 18th episode of Tesla Daily thank you

好了，今天就说到这了，所以一如既往地感谢您的收听，确保您已订阅并开启了通知。您还可以在X上找到我的特斯拉播客，明天我们会见到您，为您带来8月18日星期五的特斯拉每日节目。谢谢！