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Netflix Q2 2023 Earnings Interview - YouTube

发布时间 2023-07-18 16:00:00    来源

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Hello, and welcome to the Netflix Q2 2023 earnings interview. I'm Spencer Wong, VP of finance, IR on corporate development. Joining me today are co CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters and CFO Spence Newman. Our interviewer this quarter is Jessica Rieferlick from Bank of America.
大家好,欢迎参加Netflix 2023年第二季度收益采访。我是财务、投资关系与公司发展副总裁Spencer Wong。今天和我一起的有联席首席执行官Ted Sarandos和Greg Peters以及首席财务官Spence Newman。本季度的采访嘉宾是来自美国银行的Jessica Rieferlick。

As a reminder, we'll be making forward-looking statements and actual results may vary. Jessica, I'll now turn over the call to you for your first question.
作为提醒,我们将会做出一些前瞻性声明,实际结果可能会有所不同。Jessica,现在我将把通话转给您,让您提出第一个问题。

Thank you. Well, let's start with the top of do your, the not one, but two strikes. Can you give us your views of how this affects your business on a practical basis? How far out does your original content take you and how much of the content spend you think gets pushed from 23. And from from this year into next year.
谢谢。好吧,我们从你们的最强大的方面开始,不仅仅是一次,而是两次罢工。你能给我们分享一下这对你的业务在实际层面上产生了怎样的影响吗?你们最初的内容能支撑多久,你认为有多少内容支出被推迟到了明年。

Thanks, Jessica. Good afternoon. Thanks for the questions. Let me start by making something absolutely clear. These strikes, this strike is not an outcome that we wanted. We make deals all the time. We are constantly at the table negotiating with writers with directors with actors with producers with everyone across the industry. And we very much hope to reach an agreement by now.
谢谢,杰西卡。下午好。感谢你的问题。让我先澄清一件事。这次罢工,这次罢工并不是我们期望的结果。我们时常达成协议。我们不断与作家、导演、演员、制片人以及整个行业的人进行谈判。我们非常希望现在已经达成一项协议。

So I also wanted to say if I may on a personal level, I was raised in a union household. My dad was a member of IBEW local 640. He was a local. He was a union electrician. And I remember his local because that union was very much a part of our lives when I was growing up. And I also remember on more than one occasion, my dad being out on strike. And I remember that because it takes an enormous poll on your family financially and emotionally. So you should know that nobody here, nobody within the MPTP. And I'm sure nobody had sag or nobody at the WGA took any of this lightly. But we've got a lot of work to do. There have a handful of complicated issues. We're super committed to getting to an agreement as soon as possible. One that's equitable and one that enables the industry and everybody in it to move forward into the future.
我也想在个人层面上说一句,我在一个工会家庭中长大。我爸爸是国际兄弟会电工工会640地方分会的成员。他是本地人,是一个工会电工。当我还在成长的时候,我记得他的工会对我们的生活有很大影响。我还记得有不止一次,我爸爸参加罢工。我记得那段时期对我们家庭的经济和情感上都造成了巨大的负担。所以你们应该知道,没有人在这里,包括MPTP内部,我确信也包括SAG和WGA,对这个问题抱有轻视的态度。但我们还有很多工作要做。有一些复杂的问题需要解决。我们非常致力于尽快达成一项公平合理的协议,使整个行业和其中的每个人都能向前迈进。

And in terms of content, how much original content do you have to run out like it's at a certain point in time you probably will.
就内容而言,你需要多少原创内容才能达到一定的时间点,你可能会无法继续运营。

Well, look, we didn't put some of our upcoming content in the letter. We, we've said in the last call, we produce heavily across all kinds of content TV film, unscripted scripted, the local domestic English non English, all those things. And that's true. But it's besides the point, the real point is we need to get to this strike to a conclusion so that we can all move forward.
好吧,看吧,我们没有在信中提及我们即将推出的一部分内容。在上次电话中我们已经说过,我们涉足各种类型的内容制作,电视剧、电影、真人秀、剧本创作,涵盖本地和国际的英语和非英语内容,所有这些都是真实存在的。但这并不是重点,真正的关键是我们需要结束这次罢工,以便我们都能继续前进。

Absolutely. So let's move on to password sharing, which is something everyone on the call wants to want to hear about. Can you just give us an, you know, kind of like state of the union, but what progress have you made to date and will the rollout be complete.
没问题。那我们接下来讨论一下共享密码的问题,这是通话中每个人都想了解的内容。你能给我们一个简要情况说明吗,就像国家发展报告一样,你们目前取得的进展如何,将来的推出是否会完整实现?

And then we'll talk about this because we've worked really hard, iteratively over, you know, many months and really even over a year and a half to find an approach that we thought was a good product experience for most consumers that gave them the information that they needed to make clear decisions that included features that they wanted. So think about transferring our profile and your viewing history to a new account. And then manage your devices and account access, being able to purchase that extra membership for a loved one.
然后我们会讨论这个问题,因为我们已经辛勤地工作了很长时间,经过多个月的迭代,甚至一年半的时间,以找到一种我们认为适合大多数消费者的良好产品体验的方法,让他们获得所需的信息,做出明智的决策,并包括他们想要的功能。所以请考虑将我们的个人资料和观看历史转移至新账户。然后管理您的设备和账户权限,还可以购买额外会员资格以供您所爱的人使用。

So we've done a good job at building those features we think, but also in a way that balances those user considerations with making sure that Netflix was able to get reasonably paid when we delivered entertainment to someone. So then of course we could invest that into making the service better for everyone. And as of today we've now launched that experience in almost all the countries that we operate in, and we're seeing that it's working, we're positive in terms of both revenue and subscribers relative to to pre launch in all of our regions.
所以,我们在构建那些我们认为很好的功能方面做得不错,同时也要考虑用户的需求,确保Netflix在向用户提供娱乐时能够得到合理的回报。因此,我们当然可以将这些收入投资于为所有人提供更好的服务。截至今天,我们已经在几乎所有经营的国家推出了这种体验,并且我们看到它正在发挥作用,无论是收入还是订阅者数量,相对于以前在所有地区推出的情况,我们都是积极的。

But I also think it's important to note that the business impacts of that product experience will roll in over so several quarters so it's not an overnight kind of thing, because in part the interventions are applied gradually. And in part because some bars won't immediately sign up for their account but we'll do so, you know, next month or three months or six months or maybe even longer down the line, as we launch a title that they're particularly interested in.
但是我也认为重要的是要注意,这个产品体验对业务的影响将会在几个季度内逐渐显现,所以这不是一蹴而就的事情,因为一方面干预措施会逐步实施。另一方面,因为有些酒吧不会立即注册他们的账户,但我们会在下个月、三个月、六个月甚至更长的时间内这样做,因为我们将会推出他们特别感兴趣的新品。

So we're, we're live in the vast majority of countries, you know over 90% of countries by revenue. And we're going to continue to iterate and execute that model. And there are a way to think about segments of borrowers who have yet to convert. I mean, it feels like there's another wave coming or maybe several ways. Maybe college students who are home for the summer and you know we'll go back in August or September.
所以我们现在在绝大部分国家都开展业务,收入占比超过90%。我们将继续完善和执行这个模式。同时,我们也正在思考如何吸引那些尚未加入我们的借款人群体。感觉还有一波(或许是几波)新的借款需求即将到来,比如那些正在暑假回家的大学生们,他们将在八月或九月返校。

You know, I don't know that mobile devices have been shut off yet. And it totally many people who are not a mobile devices have said they've not they haven't been cut off yet so how can you help us think through that.
你知道吗,我不知道移动设备是否已被关闭。许多人并不是使用移动设备,他们说他们的设备还未被关闭,那你如何帮助我们理清思路呢?

Yeah, so there's components of it that are essentially what you describe where, whether it's because there's behaviors or because how we've organized the product experience, how those roll out, they'll happen over time. And so we'll see those interventions. Broaden, you know, to more of those cohorts over period of time. So that's one sort of component of phasing it out.
是的,所以其中有一些组成部分基本上就是你所描述的,无论是因为有行为或者是因为我们如何组织产品体验,这些功能的推出都需要时间。因此,我们会逐步看到这些干预措施在一段时间内对更多的群体进行扩展和推广。这就是逐步淘汰的一个组成部分。

Another component is that we see differential engagement across that Bower population so there's some borrowers who are using it, you know, the service every day. And those folks are very likely to, you know, transfer to their own account very soon. And then some folks are less engaged and it's going to take us a little bit longer to convince them to move over with great, you know, stories, great TV shows and films. So that's both of those effects essentially are what distribute the business impact from this product experience so that's why I would think about it as, you know, we're seeing effects right now, but we'll also see those effects, you know, over the next many quarters.
另外一个要考虑的因素是,我们发现包容者群体内参与程度存在差异。有些借款人每天都在使用我们的服务。这些借款人很可能很快就会转移到他们自己的账户上。而有些借款人参与度较低,我们需要更长的时间用精彩的故事、电视节目和电影来说服他们转移到我们的平台上。所以这两个因素共同决定了这个产品体验所带来的业务影响,这也是为什么我们会认为,虽然我们现在看到了一些效果,但在未来的几个季度内,我们还将看到这些效果。

Can you provide any color on the results like what percent have converted to paying, and on what plan like, you know, how many went to members versus subscribers your subscriber numbers were great this quarter, but they were also add ons to households. So, can you help us think through and kind of, you know, did people change plans.
你能提供一些关于结果的具体细节吗?比如有多少百分比转化为付费用户,转化成哪种付费计划,比如会员和订阅者的数量是多少?你们本季度的订阅者数量很好,但同时也增加了家庭用户。所以,你能帮助我们思考一下,还有,你们是否在计划上对用户进行了任何更改?

Yeah, I would say generally what we see is these are well qualified members. So, in other words, they are choosing plans and are engaging at rates, have retention characteristics that generally look like higher tenure members that's good because they're well qualified, you know, that retention is quite a sense. So that's a broad way to think about what those borrower cohorts are and that's consistent also with the fact that we'll convert essentially those most engaged most well qualified borrowers first that's a general way to think about it and then beyond that I won't comment on, you know, more specific numbers.
是的,我会说一般情况下我们看到的这些成员都是具备良好资质的。换句话说,他们选择计划并以相对较高的比例参与,在保留特征方面看起来类似于更长期的成员,这很好,因为他们具备良好的资质,你知道,这种保留是有一定意义的。因此,这是一种广泛思考借款人群体的方式,也与我们将首先转换那些最积极参与、资质最好的借款人的事实一致,这是一种一般的思考方式,对于更具体的数字我就不发表评论了。

Well, maybe if you can help us think through like in you can how much of the arm growth as a function of add on members to existing accounts versus new sub signing up to higher price plans. And, you know, it sounds like from from the letter that arm will accelerate in second half as you get further along in password sharing. Is that that's correct. And what kind of expenses do you want to pick this one up.
嗯,也许如果您能帮助我们思考一下,比如您可以考虑一下现有账户添加成员与新用户订阅高价套餐之间的关系,这样也许可以帮助我们了解臂部增长的情况。而且,从信中看起来,由于您在密码共享方面进一步推进,ARM在下半年将加速增长。这样对于开支方面,您想从中选择哪些方面。

Yeah, maybe just broadly thinking about our kind of revenue in Q two and going forward. Jessica key is that we delivered revenue in line in Q two with our expectations and we're on track to accelerate that revenue in Q three and further accelerating in Q four. That's, that's really our primary objective around revenue acceleration and we're set to deliver on it. But if we step back on thinking about our revenue growth and components overall or within a given region. It's driven by a combination of pricing volume and, and, and new revenue streams like ads. So, if we think about each one of those. So, we're now more than a year out from any price adjustments in our big revenue countries. We largely pause them during during a paid sharing rollout and, and, and so that's to be expected. And as that new revenue stream we we've expected a gradual revenue build and so that's not expected to be a big contributor this year so continues to be on target so most of our revenue growth this year is some growth and volume through new paid memberships. And that's largely driven by our page sharing roll roll out it's, it is our, our primary revenue accelerated accelerate, accelerate in the year. And we expect that impact as Greg said to build over several quarters. So that's what we're seeing in each of our regions and in you can so you can is a little bit more benefit from, from ads for some years it's a bigger advertising market but still very, very small overall and still nascent to the business.
是的,也许就广泛地考虑我们在第二季度及未来的收入情况而言。杰西卡的关键是,在第二季度我们的收入符合预期,并且我们正在加快第三季度的收入增长,并进一步加速第四季度的增长。这是我们在收入加速方面的主要目标,我们已经有能力实现。但是如果我们放慢脚步,思考整体或特定地区的收入增长组成成分。它由定价、销量以及新的广告收入流等因素共同推动。因此,如果我们考虑到每个因素。我们离我们在大收入国家进行任何价格调整已经超过一年了。我们在付费共享推出期间主要暂停了这些调整,这是可以预料的。因为新的收入流,我们预计会逐渐产生收入增加,所以今年不会对这方面做出大的贡献,继续保持目标。因此,今年我们的大部分收入增长来自于新的付费会员数量的增长。这主要是由我们的付费共享推出所推动的,这是我们在今年主要的收入加速来源。并且正如Greg所说,我们预计其影响将在几个季度内逐渐增强。这就是我们在每个地区看到的情况,而且在某些年份,可以从广告中获得一些额外的好处,因为它是一个较大的广告市场,但总体而言仍然非常非常小,并且对业务仍处于初级阶段。

But there's another surprise that you had this in the last couple of weeks, which seems like it could also be a very positive driver to arm. And that is that you dropped the basic plan in Canada several weeks ago and you just announced that in the US and UK. And there's just a couple of questions here are there any plans for the rest of the world, and has it so far from your experience in Canada has it driven the response that you hope for is the response that you, you know, more people go to the advertising tier. And then I guess one other final part of this question is that it's an obvious positive for our, I mean, it feels like the impact is like $5 or more per month. And it's fully rolled out over three years or so I, you know, like over what period of time do you think this will have the most impact.
但是过去几个星期里,你带来了另一个惊喜,似乎也可能成为一个非常积极的推动力。你在几周前取消了加拿大的基础计划,并刚刚宣布在美国和英国也会这样做。这里只有几个问题,是否有计划在其他国家推出这一举措,并且根据您在加拿大的经验,它是否带来了预期的反响,即更多的人选择广告套餐。还有一个问题是,这对我们来说显然是一个积极的举措,每月影响可能达到5美元或更多。这一计划预计将在三年左右完全推出,您认为在这段时间内它将产生最大的影响。

Sure. We think of this is a continuation of, you know, what we've generally done for a long period of time, which is think about how do we optimize the plan structure, the pricing the features that we have with really two goals in mind one goal is we want to give you know, you know, consumers access across a wide range of price points so that more people around the world can enjoy the great stories that Bellless team is doing. That means the appropriate spread of prices and the appropriate corresponding features, including ads, no ads, video quality, number of simultaneous dreams and we'll seek to actually add to that list of futures over a period of time.
当然。 我们认为这是我们长期以来一直在做的事情的延续,也就是思考如何优化我们的计划结构、定价和功能,我们有两个目标:一是希望为消费者提供跨越各种价格段的选择,让更多世界各地的人都能享受到贝尔莱斯团队所做的精彩故事。这意味着适当的价格范围和相应的功能,包括有广告、无广告、视频质量、同时观看的数量等,我们还会在未来不断增加其他功能。

And the second big goal that we've got and think about this is optimizing, you know, long term revenue that includes a bunch of factors that you might expect it's sign up conversion it's plan take rate engagement retention. And just as we evolved from a single plan years ago, and have adjusted our offering over time this latest move reflects what we think will best achieve those goals in the countries that we launched it in US UK and Canada. And I think it's also important to note that from that perspective accessibility and affordability. We think the entry prices that we have right now in those countries so 699 the United States 499 pounds in the UK and 599 can name dollars in Canada, represent an amazing entertainment value and those are attracting a healthy share of sign ups.
而我们有的第二大目标是优化长期收入,这包括一系列的因素,比如注册转化率、计划采纳率、参与度以及保留度等等。就像我们几年前从单一计划发展演变一样,而且随着时间的推移我们对产品进行了调整,这次最新的变动反映了我们认为在美国、英国和加拿大等国家最能实现这些目标的方式。我认为还很重要的一点是考虑到可访问性和可负担性。我们认为现在在这些国家的入门价,也就是美国的6.99美元,英国的4.99镑,加拿大的5.99加元,代表了令人惊叹的娱乐价值,并且吸引了很多注册用户。

So in terms of the specific effects that you're talking about it's pretty much what you would expect, which is, you know, when we drop that basic tier, folks that would have signed up for that tier essentially sort into two tiers they either take the ads plan, which is that really low attractive entry level price, or they move into the standard plan and so we see that, you know, that sorting in terms of what we would expect. I mean, we are rolling this out in an iterative fashion across countries and that allows us to understand the impacts and, you know, not be surprised so I think things are generally going as we expect in that regard.
所以,就你所讲的具体影响而言,基本上都是预料之中的。也就是说,当我们取消了基本套餐后,原本会选择该套餐的用户基本上分成了两个层次:要么选择具有非常低廉、吸引人的广告计划入门级价格,要么升级到标准计划。所以,我们看到了我们所预料的分层情况。我的意思是,我们正在逐步在各个国家推出这项计划,这让我们能够了解其影响,并且不会感到意外。所以,我认为在这方面事情基本上按照我们的预期进行。

So, one last question and then I'll move on to advertising, but for your new members or new subs from the, from the past we're trying, are there any noticeable differences in turn. Well, I would say, as I mentioned before, the way to think about these are the way that we're seeing them in terms of the members that are signing up borrowers are spinning off right now. I would characterize them as well qualified, their folks that have watched Netflix for a long period of time they know how Netflix works. So they're behaving in terms of retention characteristics turn characteristics like more higher tenure subscribers, which is good. That means, you know, better retention. Right.
所以,最后一个问题,然后我会继续讨论广告,但是对于你们的新会员或过去尝试的新订阅者来说,是否有可察觉的差异呢?嗯,我会说,正如我之前提到的,我们看待这些的方式是以注册借款人为主,他们现在正在离退休。我会将他们描述为合格的借款人,他们观看Netflix的时间很长,了解Netflix的运作方式。所以他们在保留特点和转变特点方面的表现就像更高时期的订阅者,这是很好的。这意味着他们有更好的保留率,对吧。

And Jessica maybe just, you know, a number of the questions you were asking is kind of getting it a little bit of a, I think you mentioned our poo and, you know, we call it arm or average revenue per member but what, what are we kind of seeing in the numbers and how does that play out with us as you think about the, you know, the move out of the basic ad free tiers you mentioned in Canada and a couple other countries as of today, and also as we build our ads so maybe if I can just for a second talk that through because you can get a little complicated but if you think about the revenue per member starting with the revenue drivers that we spoke about a moment ago, you can see our FX neutral arm is it was down 1% FX neutral and Q2 and we expect similar in Q3 flat to slightly down. That's mostly due to the limited price adjustments we mentioned over the past year in our in our big revenue markets in advance of rolling out paid sharing. There's also some at play here some movement in plan and country mix shift over time. Most of our member growth over the past year has been outside of you can so in lower arm countries so that plays into the arm trends, but importantly, over time and over the medium to longer term. We expect arm will benefit will benefit from price adjustments. We haven't changed our long term pricing philosophy and it'll benefit from ads and the extra members that you mentioned. It's just that both of those are early we're still only a small percentage of our members are on the ads tier even with the moves we just mentioned nice growth in the ads tier but still off a small base. And we're really early in terms of paid sharing impacts including extra member for the reasons that Greg mentioned that's going to build up over multiple quarters and as they do, we'll see all of that demonstrating itself itself and growth and arm over time we would expect.
而且,杰西卡,你知道的,你问了一些问题,有点让我有点困惑,我想你提到了我们的收入和我们称之为平均每位会员收入(ARM)。那么从数据上来看,你认为这如何影响我们考虑退出加拿大和其他几个国家的基本无广告套餐,以及我们构建我们的广告?也许我可以简单地解释一下,因为这可能有点复杂,但是如果你考虑从我们之前谈到的收入驱动因素开始的每位会员收入,你将会看到我们的FX中性ARM在Q2下降了1%的FX中性,并且我们预计Q3将会是持平或略有下降。这主要是由于我们提到的过去一年在推出付费共享之前的一些有限的价格调整,这在我们的主要收入市场中有所影响。这里还有一些计划和国家组合的变化。过去一年中,我们的会员增长大多是在你方面以外的一些低ARM的国家,因此这影响了ARM的趋势,但是重要的是,在中长期内,我们预计ARM将从价格调整中受益,并从广告和你提到的额外会员中受益。只是这两者都处于早期阶段,即使我们刚刚提到在广告层面有不错的增长,但是仍然只有很小一部分会员使用广告套餐。至于另一个原因,正如格雷格提到的,付费共享的影响将会在多个季度内逐渐增加,随着时间的推移,我们将会看到所有这些体现在ARM的增长上。

Moving on to advertising. Can you some color on some of the innovative or non traditional offerings that you have. We wanted the things you talked about in the upfront was like offering advertisers, the ability to go into the top 10 which is provides an incredible reach that guaranteed reach really every every all the time.
说到广告。您能解释一下您所拥有的一些创新或非传统的服务吗?我们希望了解您在前期提到的一些事情,比如向广告商提供进入前十的能力,这可以提供令人难以置信的覆盖范围,而且这种覆盖范围是始终如一的。

You just talked through some of the ways because you're thinking in ways that are very different from traditional media. Yeah, I think stepping back it's, it's useful to start with, we've got a lot of work to grow this business and the first priority that we're focused on is scale. We know that reach is one of the, you know, predominant consideration the dominant considerations that I have to have when they think about where to go to spend their dollars we want to be in that top list. We're grew ads plan membership almost 100% quarter to quarter so that's good growth that's a good trajectory as spent mentioned, we want to continue that so that's that's job number one.
你刚才谈到了一些方式,因为你的思维方式与传统媒体非常不同。是的,我认为退一步讲,有必要先明确一点,我们有很多工作要做来发展这个业务,我们目前的首要任务是扩大规模。我们知道,覆盖范围是人们在考虑如何花费广告预算时的主要考虑因素之一,我们希望能进入他们首选的名单。我们的广告计划会员人数季度对季度增长了将近100%,这是良好的增长轨迹,正如刚才提到的,我们希望继续这种增长势头,这就是我们的首要任务。

Job number two is we got a really saw a list of advertiser facing features that are not in that innovation category that are really more following a well trodden path we're rolling those out these are things like verification their measurement their targeting. I'd actually include in that bucket building out our go to market and sales capabilities in every country so that we can serve more advertisers and serve them more effectively so there's a bunch of very straightforward work these follow in this well established path. We just need to do the work. We know we can do it so it's heads down and execute.
第二个工作是,我们获得了一个真正的广告主面向的功能列表,这些功能并不属于创新类别,而是更多地遵循了一条老路。我们正在逐步推出这些功能,比如验证、测量、定向等。实际上,我还会包括在这个范畴中,扩展我们的市场开拓和销售能力,以便我们能够为更多广告主提供更有效的服务,所以这里有一些非常直接的工作,它们都沿袭了这一既定的路径。我们只需要做好这些工作,我们知道我们能做到,所以现在是集中精力去执行。

And we get to, you know, a little bit what you're talking about which is an opportunity over time to really think about our offering both in terms of unique capabilities that we can deliver that blend, you know, TV with properties of digital advertising, and also work at the interface user experience and the ads experiencing, and that really leverages the core capabilities that we use for a long long period of time of UX testing, iterative development data driven personalization to establish over time, a leadership position and defining the ads experience on CTV. You can see glimpses of that right now you mentioned top 10 I think that that is a creative way to think about how we give advertisers a different way to have essentially a guaranteed participation in the most popular shows, most popular films at any given moment on Netflix so that's exciting, but there's just tons of work ahead of us tons of opportunity and we're really focused on continual improvement.
我们有机会随着时间的推移来思考我们的产品优势,这包括融合电视与数字广告的独特能力,以及用户体验和广告体验的界面工作。我们利用了长期进行的用户体验测试、迭代开发以及数据驱动的个性化,逐渐建立起在CTV上定义广告体验的领导地位。你现在已经能看到一些端倪了,你提到了前十名,我认为这是一个有创意的思考方式,让广告商有一种与Netflix上最受欢迎的节目、电影有实质性参与的不同方式,这是令人兴奋的,但是我们还有大量的工作和机会在前方,我们真的很专注于不断改进。

And we're also confident that all the fundamentals are there and that we can build over those several years, a material ads business. Has it been any change to advertising arm since last quarter when you said advertising arm was at least as high as the standard tier indicating that advertising only part of it was $8.50 or more. I can dig it if you want Greg it's no change are our overall overall ads arm continues to be higher than basic ad free globally. Same as you know it's statement on standard in terms of standard where the ads hired higher than standard ad free in the US and so generally we're just we're pleased with our per member. And we've had economics and the continuing to feel really good about the opportunity to grow the ads plan the ads offering good for members good for our business but as Greg said we just got we've got a lot of work to do to get from here to where it can be we believe over time material additional incremental revenue and margin driver for the business. And that's really a really tough and overall advertising environment.
而且我们也有信心,所有的基础都已经具备,我们可以在未来几年建立起一个实质性的广告业务。自上个季度以来,广告收入部门有没有任何变化?上个季度您曾表示广告收入部门至少与标准广告层相同,即广告部分至少为8.5美元或更高。如果您愿意,我可以解释一下,格雷格,我们的整体广告收入部门没有发生变化,仍然高于全球的无广告收入部门。同样,对于标准广告层,广告收入高于无广告收入在美国,所以总体上我们对我们的每个会员感到满意。我们在经济方面感到非常好,并继续对广告计划的发展机会感到非常满意,对会员有益,对我们的业务有益,但正如格雷格所说,我们还有很多工作要做,从现在到达到我们相信长期来看将成为业务的重要的额外收入和利润驱动力的地方还有很长的路要走。总的来说,这是一个非常困难的广告环境。

So is there anything you can say about how, but the reactions been. Yeah sure. It's first of all it's it's great to be able to have an opportunity to meet with so many advertisers in a concentrated period and hear what they need from us and to be able to synthesize, you know what are our top requirements and how can we better support those advertisers. I think you're absolutely right that the general market is soft. We're seeing that you know across multiple different companies, but we benefit right now from being relatively small so there's scarcity around our inventory.
那么你对目前的反应有什么可以说的吗?当然可以。首先,能够在短时间内与如此多的广告商见面并听取他们对我们的需求,以及整合我们的首要要求并提供更好支持,这是非常好的机会。我认为你完全正确,整体市场相对疲软。我们看到不同公司都有这种情况,但由于我们目前规模相对较小,我们的广告资源相对稀缺,因此我们受益于这一点。

So I think we're able to manage that process effectively and we're seeing good demand and good progress on the upfronts within that sort of broader soft market. And so we're looking at the market as quickly as we can, you know advertiser features that meet their needs so that we can make that, you know, are offering more attractive as we scale that inventory up.
所以我认为我们能够有效地管理这个过程,我们在整个相对柔性的市场中看到了良好的需求和良好的进展。因此,我们正在尽快观察市场,以满足广告商的需求,以便在我们扩大库存规模时,使我们的优惠更具吸引力。

What tools are and how much time do you need to like invest to build your own ad tech infrastructure. And so if you're looking for a specific number, you know we have, you know, tens of engineers working on this at this point in time, they're delivering features on a consistent basis Microsoft has even more than that that are delivering features on a consistent basis and we're working in collaboration essentially in a priority order when we see back to that.
构建自己的广告技术基础设施需要哪些工具以及投入多少时间。如果你想要一个具体的数字,我们正在这个时候有数十名工程师致力于此,他们正在持续推出新功能。微软甚至拥有比这更多的工程师,在持续推出新功能方面也做得很好,我们与他们合作,并依据优先顺序进行工作。

You know what our advertisers telling us they need we're just sort of knocking these down one after another. So, you know, in a time period, in order to achieve scale is this like a three year plan before you feel like you really have all the tech capabilities in place. Yeah, both scale in terms of reach, and the tech capabilities in terms of features aren't sort of a binary condition it's not like you know you you have it, you know, you don't have it one day and then you suddenly have it the next day.
我们的广告商告诉我们他们需要什么,我们只是在一一实现这些需求。所以,在一个时间段内,为了实现规模化,需要一个三年计划,才能确保技术能力全部到位。是的,无论是在范围方面的规模,还是在功能方面的技术能力,都不是一个二元条件,不是你在某一天就拥有了它,一天之后突然就有了。

I would say we're just constantly, you know, iterating and walking up both of those, both of those hills. So scale, you know, I'm pretty impressed with, you know, being able to get to 100% you know, quarter to quarter growth. So that's a good trajectory that feel that puts us on a good place and you know, that'll be better and better every year essentially. And then the technical features again we've got a long list and it's not as if one day we're magically done. But continue to progress, you know, on what we're doing right now allows us to sort of move from building the basics into that sort of innovative space that you mentioned before.
我会说,我们只是不断迭代和攀登这两个山丘。所以在规模方面,我对我们能够实现每个季度增长 100% 的能力感到非常印象深刻。这是一个良好的发展轨迹,让我们走上了一个好的位置,而且每年都会越来越好。至于技术特点,我们有一个很长的清单,并不是说某一天我们就神奇地完成了。但是继续在当前的基础上不断进步,使我们能够从基础建设进入你之前提到的创新领域。

So that's this one, maybe for you, but, you know, what's your vision for the advertising contribution you've said in the past that you'd like it to be 10% of revenue but given the decline of linear. Are you rethinking this so that it would be a higher percents. Well, you know, I think, you know, we've got a long way to go from where we are today to even get into 10% Jessica so I just, we don't want to get ahead of our skis if we will we, we've got a lot of blogging and tackling to do.
所以这是这个问题,也许对你来说,但是,你知道的,关于你过去所说的广告贡献的愿景是什么,你希望它占收入的10%,但考虑到线性的下降,你是否重新考虑,使其成为更高的百分比。嗯,你知道的,我觉得,你知道的,从现在到达到10%还有很长的路要走,所以我不想超过我们目前的能力,Jessica,我们还有很多工作要做。

We believe it can be a meaningful part of our business so when we say 10% it's in part because we wouldn't spend all this effort time and energy resource allocation senior management focus of Greg and Ted and others. I didn't think it could be at least 10% of revenue so I would say that's something that is a bar we're shooting for hoping to meet or beat over time but, and as you say, there's a lot of branded TV dollars that are that we set our sites on over time because we think we're, we're going to have a great ecosystem and environment to collect that demand but we have to prove it out over time so not ready to kind of increase our long term projections from one we haven't even really come close to getting to yet Jessica's it gives us a little time.
我们认为这可以成为我们业务中有意义的一部分,所以当我们说10%时,部分原因是因为我们不想花费所有这些努力、时间、精力、资源配置、高级管理层的关注力,包括Greg、Ted和其他人。我原本认为它至少可以占到收入的10%,所以我会说这是我们努力争取并希望在未来实现或超越的目标,但正如你所说,有很多品牌电视广告投放的资金,我们在长期目标上已经设定了目标,因为我们认为我们将拥有一个很好的生态系统和环境来满足该需求,但我们必须随着时间的推移证明它的可行性,所以我们还没有准备好提高我们的长期预测,因为我们甚至还没有接近这个目标,这给了我们一些时间。

I guess is what I would ask. Sure, but maybe to follow up on what you just said like where do you think the pool of ad dollars will come from over time. Like why would it given the all the capabilities that Greg just talked about why would it be limited to linear because you're going to have such extraordinary capabilities like shouldn't the pool be linear and digital.
我想问的是,我猜这是我要问的。可以,但可能接着你刚才提到的问题,比如说广告资金将会来自哪里?为什么会有限制在线性广告方面,考虑到 Greg 刚刚提到的所有能力,难道不应该既有线性广告又有数字广告的资金来源吗?

Yes, and it should be but well I like Greg speak to it. I think it's fair to say that over a period of time we anticipate pulling both linear and digital dollars but where we are today, we're much more targeted at that linear brand focused TV advertising that's a sweet spot that we can speak to right now.
是的,而且它应该是这样,但是我喜欢让Greg来谈谈这个问题。我认为可以公平地说,从长远来看,我们预计会吸引线性和数字广告支出,但就目前而言,我们更加专注于线性品牌焦点的电视广告,这是我们可以立即沟通的一个最佳选择。

We're definitely building capabilities and have an aspiration to build capabilities that over time will allow us to expand that envelope but you know again we prize number one first is to go after that brand advertising there's a lot of dollars there. There's a lot of dollars looking for great consumers to connect with and we think we can provide that solution.
我们肯定在建立能力,并有志向构建能力,以逐渐扩大我们的业务范围。但是首先,我们重视的是品牌广告,因为那里有很多资金。很多资金正在寻找与伟大消费者建立联系的机会,而我们相信我们可以提供解决方案。

Jessica it really over time to be a better than TV model. And so it's it starts with that but it's it's blending the two together and capturing both brand and digital dollars over time. One last question on this then we'll move on but has engagement changed in the past quarters or so are there any noticeable differences between the tears.
杰西卡,现在是时候努力成为比电视模特更好的了。因此,它从这一点开始,将两者结合在一起,并且随着时间的推移,既捕捉品牌,又获得数字化的收益。最后一个问题,然后我们就可以继续了,过去几个季度的参与度有没有变化,或者有没有在这些层次之间有明显的差异。

Well there's generally some differences across the tears that you might expect, you know, more qualified more engagement generally means, you know, as a broad statement, higher tier participation, but we haven't seen a change over time if that's the way we're getting to so we're seeing good engagement across all of our tears good engagements across our ads plan as well.
好的,通常情况下,您可能会预期在各个层次之间存在一些差异,您知道,更高素质、更积极参与通常意味着,作为一个宏观陈述,更高级别的参与,但如果我们的获取方式没有变化,我们就没有看到随时间变化的情况,因此我们在所有的层次上都看到了良好的参与度,也在我们的广告计划中看到了良好的参与度。

Ted, you, you, I know, you're off on. Yeah, no, I think he's a trans. Yeah, no, the key to keep in mind is that, you know, as streaming continues to grow so 37% of TV time now in the US. And then we continue to grow our share of streaming in that growing space, even though it's very, very competitive.
Ted,你啊,我知道你离谱。是的,不,我觉得他是一个跨性别者。是的,不,关键是要记住,你知道的,随着流媒体的持续增长,现在美国有37%的电视时间被占据了。而且我们在这个不断增长的领域中不断扩大我们的流媒体份额,尽管竞争非常激烈。

Probably best evidence is for nearly every week of this year we've had the number one show and the number one film on streaming, which is, you know, so that creates an enormous amount of, to your point, Jessica of possibilities. But all dependent on building those capabilities.
可能最好的证据是,今年几乎每周我们都在流媒体平台上拥有排名第一的电视节目和电影,这让我们拥有了大量的可能性,正如你提到的杰西卡所说。但是所有这些都取决于我们是否建立起这些能力。

So as we put those things together as an enormous opportunity as eyeballs increasingly moved to streaming and they are by the way they're moving to streaming, because this is where the consumers demand is running. This isn't like we've invented something and we're dragging them in. So basically the consumers are long away from this notion of the linear grid, dictating what they can watch and where they can watch it and how they can watch it. And the demand is on us to deliver on on streaming and high quality content that they love. And our ability to monetize it both through pure subscription and through advertising if they choose to do so is really dependent on us having the content that they're that they're excited about day in and day out, weekend and week out, and in every country in the world.
随着眼球越来越多地转向流媒体,我们将这些因素视为巨大的机遇,它们正在不断转向流媒体,因为这是消费者需求的方向。这不是我们发明了什么,然后把他们拉到这里来。所以基本上,消费者已经远离了线性网格的概念,不再由它决定他们可以在哪里观看和如何观看。我们需要满足他们对流媒体和高质量内容的需求,并且能够通过纯订阅和广告来实现盈利,这主要取决于我们提供的内容能否让他们每天、每周末都感到兴奋,并且遍布全球各个国家。

Yeah, I think that's exactly right. And just the foundation of our track is to advertise was ultimately are reached this high level engagement and amazing titles TV shows and films like Ted mentioned in the top, you know, 10 that they want to have their brands next to him.
是的,我认为正是如此。我们的轨道基础就是为了宣传,从而达到这样一个高水平的参与度,以及像泰德提到的那些在排名前十的令人惊叹的电视节目和电影旁边出现他们品牌的机会。

So let's move on to free cash flow. You had an extraordinary quarter. This, this second quarter and you said the, you know, he talks about the outlook for Q three. Can, can you maybe address the underlying dynamics. Talk a little bit about content spend and other investments.
那么我们来谈谈自由现金流。你在上个季度有一个非同寻常的季度表现。这个,就是第二季度,你提到了,你知道,关于第三季度的展望。可以,你能否谈一下底层动力。稍微谈一下内容支出和其他投资。

Yeah, sure. I can, I can take that one, Jessica. I mean, when you see in our cashflow forecast we took it up for 2023 in terms of expectations really driven by a few things one just.
是的,当然可以。我可以负责那个,杰西卡。我的意思是,当你看到我们的现金流预测时,我们提高了2023年的预期,这主要是由于几个因素驱动的,只是其中之一。

Higher certainty in our forecast with the success of the early success of the paid sharing rollout. We also had some, some move in production timing just the typical ins and outs of the schedule. And then lastly, the impact of the strikes and so there's still a pretty wide range of outcomes for where we were going to ultimately land on cashflow this year given given the ongoing strikes but, and that may also create some lumpiness actually between 2023 and 24 so still was substantial expected for cashflow in 24 but some lump lumpiness between the years.
随着付费共享发布的初步成功,我们对预测的确定性更高了。我们在生产时间方面也有一些变动,这只是时间安排方面的常规问题。最后,还有罢工的影响,所以我们在今年的现金流结果仍存在相当大的范围,考虑到正在进行的罢工,但可能会在2023年和2024年之间导致一些波动。尽管如此,我们仍然对2024年的现金流有相当大的期望,但在年份之间可能会有一些波动。

But more broadly, you know, we're past that most cash intensive phase of building out our original programming strategy. So we'll have some near term lumpiness but if we apply a multi year lens we expect a positive and growing free cashflow trajectory in the years ahead. So that's generally what you're seeing. And, and of course as part of that just ongoing prudent expense management still growing our expenses but trying to grow slower than revenue in a responsible way that helps us scale healthy.
但更广泛地说,你知道,我们已经超过了构建原创节目战略的大部分现金密集阶段。所以在短期内可能会有一些波动,但如果我们从多年的角度来看,我们预计在未来几年会有一个积极且不断增长的自由现金流轨迹。所以这就是你们所看到的大致情况。当然,作为其中的一部分,我们还在持续审慎地管理开支,虽然开支在增长,但我们会努力以一种负责任的方式使其增长速度比收入慢,以帮助我们健康地扩张。

What's the content spend outlook for the next few years, what is normal post the strikes, plural.
未来几年的内容支出前景如何?罢工结束后通常会恢复正常吗(指罢工会造成的影响)?

Well, what you've seen is, and what we talked about when our when our revenue had slowed down in early 22 is that we would keep our content our cash content spend roughly flat. And that's what we've been doing between from 2022 through with the plan through 24 with the lumpiness that we talked about some of it because of the kind of coming out of the throws of covet as we talked about in the last couple calls and now most recently because of the strikes. But our hope and our expectation is we get back up to those levels similar to levels in 24 as we were in 22. So, so we will grow next year as our hope and expectation back to those levels. And we talked about it in the letter to what that works out to is roughly about a 1.1 ratio in terms of our cash content spend relative to our content expense. And that allows us to kind of scale in a healthy way while also kind of growing our cash flow over time and then as we prove out revenue acceleration, which we expect to do as we've guided to start in Q three and then further in Q four. We hope to start ticking up our, our, our cash spend on content again and doing it in a healthy way we just, we have to, we have to prove that out obviously but we've got a lot of great entertainment that we hope to provide to members all around the world is, is Ted said. A lot more we can spend into spend in a big opportunity but we want to do it responsibly. But with your content spend very measured. Let's put it that way. And you're, you're kind of maybe investing in tech capabilities but beyond that like it feels like this tremendous leverage and your business model.
嗯,你所看到的,以及我们在2022年初收入放缓时讨论的是,我们将保持我们的现金内容开支基本平稳。这就是我们在2022年到2024年的计划中一直在做的,正如我们在最近几次通话中提到的,有些不稳定因素是因为我们正在从疫情的困境中恢复过来,以及最近因为罢工而导致的情况。但我们的希望和预期是我们能够恢复到与2022年相似的水平,也就是在2024年。所以,我们的希望和预期是明年能够回到那个水平。我们在信中讨论了大约是1.1的比率,是我们的现金内容开支与内容支出相对应的比例。这样一来,我们可以以健康的方式扩展,并随着时间的推移增加现金流量,同时证明出收入加速,即我们预计在第三季度开始,并在第四季度进一步加快。我们希望再次开始增加我们的现金内容支出,并以健康的方式进行,当然,我们必须证明出来,但我们希望能为全世界的会员提供更多出色的娱乐,正如特德所说。还有更多我们可以投入的机会,但我们要负责任地做到这一点。但是我们的内容支出非常谨慎,就这么说。而且你可能会在技术能力方面进行一些投资,除此之外,你的商业模式似乎有很大的杠杆效应。

So is there a way like to think about growth and free cash flow beyond 24.
那么有没有一种方法来思考超过24个月的增长和自由现金流呢?

So I would say, Jessica, the best way to think about it is we expect to grow revenue and profits over time. As spent mentioned we are past the most cash intensive phase. So that cash content cash spend to content and recession ratio that we've talked a lot about in the past. And what we think is going to be roughly in the neighborhood of 1.1 x in 2024, probably somewhere around that area for the foreseeable future based on the current plans. So I think that gives you the right sort of building blocks and be able to get a rough sense of it. I think what you would see is that would lead to, you know, very healthy free cash regeneration for the foreseeable future.
所以我会说,杰西卡,对于这个问题,最好的思考方式是我们预计随着时间的推移,收入和利润会增长。正如花费所提到的,我们已经过了最消耗现金的阶段。所以将现金支出与产出和复苏比例相关联,这是我们过去经常讨论的。而根据目前的计划,我们认为2024年这个比例大致会在1.1倍左右,未来可预见的一段时间内可能会保持在这个范围内。所以我认为这给了你正确的构建模块,并能对其有一个大致的了解。我认为你会看到,这将导致可预见的未来非常健康的现金再生。

So we've got uses are free cash flow and maybe possibly M and A. I mean, there are a lot of distressed assets in media land. Maybe the lowest multiples in memory that we've seen. What assets might be interesting to you. Spencer, you want to go on? Well, we just said we've got, you know, we've always looked at these things in terms of the opportunity of I, for IP, versus those assets and some of those assets are stressed for a reason. And mostly looking at we would look at our M and A activity would be mostly around IP that we can develop and degrade content for our members, which is our real strength in the business. So that's, I would think we are traditionally been very strong builders over buyers and that really hasn't fundamentally changed. But if there are opportunities that give us access to pools of IP that we can develop into it against that could be super interesting.
所以,我们手头有现金流可用,也许可能是并购(M&A)。我的意思是,在媒体领域有很多不景气的资产。可能是我们记忆中最低的倍数。对您而言,哪些资产可能有趣?Spencer,你想说点什么吗?好的,我们刚刚说过,我们一直在关注“知识产权(IP)”与这些资产相比的机会。其中一些资产之所以陷入困境是有原因的。我们主要关注的是能够为我们会员开发和发布内容的IP,这也是我们业务的真正优势。因此,我认为我们传统上一直是更强调自己的能力而不是买家,在这方面基本上没有改变。但如果有机会让我们获取可以开发的IP资源,那将非常有趣。

Just maybe moving sort of a little bit away from that, but you've developed a library over 10 plus years at this point, and it's pretty substantial and you've got some amazing, I mean, really amazing global titles. Would you consider selling your library content to others? Look, we've always have found that we offer this content to our members in a unbelievable value on Netflix as it now. And then almost anywhere else we put it, there's either a crossover in the otherwise have an Netflix account, or have a much smaller viewing base. So we're, we think we're taking the right course in terms of offering the content to our members and having it around, even after it's after it's original run on Netflix. And then the syndication market, the home video markets that continue exists today are kind of contracting in a way that isn't too exciting to build up against, versus this opportunity we have with to leads our members and throw our members with our content, all the way back through the history of our content. And the opportunity, but we've also seen things like, you know, when extraction to just did so well for us this past quarter, the extraction one was popped right back up into the top 10. We've seen that a lot with new seasons of shows like when Queen Charlotte hit into the top 10. Here comes Bridgerton one and two. So it's a really, it's a very fluid way and a very fluid and dynamic offering in that way and it's even better, the, the deeper and richer that library becomes.
或许稍微逃离那个话题,但你在此过程中已经打造了一个超过10年的图书馆,它相当丰富,你有一些令人惊叹的,我是说,真的令人惊叹的全球作品。你会考虑将你的图书馆内容出售给其他人吗?看,我们发现我们以现在的形式向会员提供这些内容,在Netflix上提供给会员的价值是不可思议的。几乎在任何其他平台上,要么与Netflix账户有交叉,要么观众基数要小得多。因此,我们认为在向会员提供内容并在Netflix上保留内容之后,我们正在选择正确的路径。此外,目前继续存在的辛迪加市场和家庭视频市场在某种程度上正处于收缩状态,这对我们来说并不是太令人兴奋的,与我们向会员提供内容并贯穿我们整个内容历史的机会相比。还有这样的机会,我们也看到了一些事情,比如,就像《无声抢劫》在上个季度取得了如此好的成绩,它又重新登上了前十名。我们经常看到新剧季上线时也是如此,比如《夺命骄阳》一上线,前作《执念女王》也再次进入前十名。因此,这是一种非常流动和动态的方式,而且这种方式越来越好,图书馆变得越来越深入和丰富。

Jessica, we, we have time for probably one, one last question. Oh my god. Okay. Well, can you make it two parts of the law, Jessica. Okay. Well, can you talk a little bit about your life strategy, including sports experimentation. I mean, there seems to be a lot going on in sports, I mean, you supposedly outbid or reportedly outbid ESPN for for NFL sports documentary. So maybe if you can include in live sports, that would be great. Look, it's our position in live sports remains unchanged. We're super excited about the success of our sports adjacent programming. We just had a recently just launched a great one called quarterbacks with the NFL. So a few months, a few weeks ago we had Tour de France, which did exactly what we saw with drive to survive, which is introduce a brand new audience to a sport that's been around for a really long time and not very well understood. And you do that through exceptional storytelling, not through the liveness of the game. So we're able by doing that, we can now offer this wide variety of sports programming for sports fans that's in season year round. And it really leans on our strengths, which are storytelling. So we're really excited about that. And you've read some of the experimental stuff that we're going to be doing like, you know, this live live golf match in November. And we're excited about that because it serves as a promotional vehicle for our sports brands like full swing and drive to survive. So we really think that we can have a really strong offering for sports fans on Netflix without having to be part of the difficulty of the economic model of live sports licensing.
杰西卡,我们,我们可能还有时间问一个,最后一个问题。哦天哪。好的。那么,能不能谈谈你的生活策略,包括对体育的实验。我的意思是,体育界似乎有很多事情正在发生,我是说,你据说在美国全国广播公司(ESPN)之外出价或报道了一个关于美国职业橄榄球联盟(NFL)的体育纪录片。所以,如果你能谈到现场体育,那将是很好的。看,我们在现场体育领域的立场保持不变。我们对与体育相关的节目的成功非常兴奋。我们最近刚刚推出了一档名为《四分卫》的NFL节目,几个月前我们还有了《环法自行车赛》,这与《极速过生死》有着相同的效果,让一个全新的观众群体了解了一个历史悠久但不为人所熟知的运动。而我们能做到这一点是通过出色的叙事而不是直播游戏。通过这样做,我们现在可以为体育迷提供全年季节性的各种体育节目,而且它真正依赖于我们的优势,也就是叙事。所以我们对此非常兴奋。你也看到了我们即将进行的一些实验性内容,比如11月份的现场高尔夫比赛。我们对此感到非常兴奋,因为它可以作为我们的体育品牌(如《高尔夫全技娱乐公司》和《极速过生死》)的宣传工具。所以我们真的认为,在Netflix上为体育迷提供丰富的节目选择,而无需参与现场体育授权的经济模式的困难。

Great. Well, thank you, Ted for that answer. Thank you Jessica for your questions and thanks to the audience for tuning into the video interview. And we look forward to speaking to you all next quarter. Thank you.
太好了。嗯,感谢提供答案的Ted。感谢Jessica提出问题,感谢观众收看这次视频采访。我们期待下个季度与大家再次交流。谢谢大家。