Is Tesla Going to Wrap Cybertrucks? / 10X BESS Growth Incoming / GM's Latest Factory ⚡️
发布时间 2023-06-14 21:01:25 来源
摘要
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00:00 - FSD Beta Roundabouts
1:06 - TSLA Short Sellers Crushed
2:35 - SuC Network Out of Desperation
2:43 - Major EV Milestone
3:44 - FSD Beta 11.4.4
4:01 - Cybertruck: What Is Tesla Hiding?
5:49 - Tesla Recruiting
6:10 - S/X in Korea
6:17 - Giga France
7:26 - Rystad on BESS Growth
8:32 - FSD Beta in Australia
8:52 - Model Y Changes
9:20 - Chinest Battery Factory in Michigan
9:40 - GM and Samsung Partnership
10:30 - Ford's EV Center Opens in Germany
10:50 - RIVN Removal from NASDAQ
11:04 - Elon Says Toyota Should Adopt NACS
11:30 - Elon Predicts Deflation
11:55 - Check out Brighter w/ Herbert!
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#TeslaCybertruck #Cybertruck #CybertruckSighting
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
Welcome to Electrified. Electrified. I'm Telling I'm telling you, I don't revel in others misery, but when you bet against Tesla, eventually you will be sleeping in the bed you make. According to data from S3 Partners, this year Tesla short sellers have lost $12.68 billion in market market losses.
欢迎来到Electrified（电动化）。
我告诉你，我并不喜欢看到别人的悲惨遭遇，但是如果你押注反特斯拉（Tesla）的话，最终你将自食其果。根据S3合伙人的数据，今年特斯拉的卖空者已经在市场损失上损失了126.8亿美元。
Now yes, coming out of 2022 where they made $15.8 billion they were riding high, but they've so far collectively given back most of those gains. If you'd like to attribute part of Tesla's recent stock rally to short covering things of that nature, be my guess, but I've been around the markets long enough to know that very rarely can you ever pinpoint a stock move to one or even a few different things.
现在，特斯拉在2022年实现了158亿美元的收益，表现非常出色，但目前他们已经共同交还了大部分这些收益。如果你想将特斯拉最近的股票上涨归因于空头交易的方面，那么可以这样认为，但我已经在市场上待了足够长的时间，知道很少能把一支股票的涨跌归因于一个或几个不同的方面。
Case in point, you can see the beginning of 2023 Tesla's market cap was $336 billion. Fast forward to today and it's currently hovering around $815 billion. So the question becomes, over the last 6 months or so has Tesla's business model fundamentally changed to the tune of almost $500 billion? The answer of course is clearly no, despite all of the great news we've received. Which of course is just one of the many reasons I am now focused more on time in the market rather than timing the market because I can promise you plenty of people in the Tesla community have missed this run because they just couldn't take the pain of 2022.
举例来说，2023年初，特斯拉市值为3360亿美元，而现在则已经接近8150亿美元。因此，问题在于，在过去的六个月中，特斯拉的商业模式是否根本性地发生了变化，以达到了近5000亿美元的价值？当然，答案显然是否定的，尽管我们听取了很多好消息。这正是我现在更注重市场时间，而非市场时机的原因之一。因为我可以向你保证，特斯拉社区的很多人错过了这次机会，因为他们无法承受2022年的痛苦。
But yeah, ultimately betting against a company that's doing so much to make our future brighter and safer, this is where I would say sorry, not sorry. Last night Elon said we built the supercharger network out of desperation since no one else was doing it. And here we are today.
但是，最终押注反对这样一家正在为我们的未来变得更加光明和安全而努力的公司，我会说抱歉（但我不会真的抱歉）。昨晚埃隆说，我们建立超级充电站网络是因为没有其他人在做，但是今天我们已经成功地做到了。
For the first time ever we have a big US city hitting a pretty big electrification milestone. In San Francisco, in March, over 50% of all new vehicles registered were electric. Yes, this includes hybrids. This is the first time a major US city has reached that threshold. That was more than three times that of the United States average, which was 16.6% during March and drilling down into just full B.E.V.s. That number was 34.2% in San Francisco in March, more than the US average in March, that was 7.3%. So back to including hybrids, we have five designated market areas. Verification rates surpassing 30% in March. Those cities include Seattle, San Diego, Portland, Los Angeles and Sacramento, the first two of which exceeded 35%.
有史以来，我们首次见证了一座美国大城市取得相当可观的电气化里程碑。在三月份，旧金山新注册的汽车中，超过50%是电动汽车，其中也包括了混合动力汽车。这是一座美国大城市首次达到该门槛。而在三月份，它的比例超过美国平均水平3倍以上（美国平均水平为16.6%）。如果只考虑纯电动汽车，旧金山在三月份的比例是34.2%，也高于美国的平均值，后者仅为7.3%。至于包括混合动力汽车的情况，我们有五个特定市场区域，其中在三月份验证率超过30%。这些城市包括西雅图、圣地亚哥、波特兰，洛杉矶和萨克拉门托，其中前两者的比例超过35%。
Just FYI, historically these DMA's are actually regions where Nielsen's would measure TV ratings and thus they actually have a lot of demographics for these certain cities. Tesla's FSD beta 11.4.3 has been rolling out to a wider audience. But in response to that news, now we have Elon saying 11.4.4 goes out the end of this week. No word yet on if this release will just be bug fixes or something a bit more significant.
仅供参考，历史上这些DMA实际上是尼尔森用来衡量电视收视率的地区，因此它们实际上已经有了这些特定城市的很多人口统计数据。特斯拉的FSD beta 11.4.3已经开始向更广泛的受众发布。但是在回应这一消息时，现在埃隆表示11.4.4将在本周末发布。尚未得知该版本是否只是修复缺陷还是有点重要的改进。
What do we have here? Well, the Cybertruck spotted in Palo Alto, California. Of course, first thing you'll notice is the camouflage wrap, but the second thing from this image, it looks like an actual round steering wheel, not the yoke wheel mixture thing we saw last time. When it comes to why Tesla wrapped this vehicle, I really don't know, but what I do know is that Tesla has actually been wrapping vehicles in-house in China now for the last two years or so. That was confirmed on Weibo toward the end of 2020.
我们在这儿看到了什么？好吧，这是位于加利福尼亚州帕洛阿尔托的Cybertruck。当然，你首先会注意到的是迷彩包装，但从这个图像中第二个看到的东西是，它似乎有个实际的圆形方向盘，而不是上次看到的混合式游艇方向盘。关于特斯拉为什么给这辆车包装，我真的不知道，但我确实知道的是，特斯拉现在已经在中国的内部包装车辆已经有了两年左右的时间。这在2020年底被微博证实。
If I had to guess, I would say no, at least to start Tesla will not do any in-house wrapping for the Cybertruck. They won't want to deal with the warranties. They won't want to add any manufacturing complexities either. But I do think this looks awesome and is of course free marketing and a reminder for everybody who may not love the look of the stainless steel Cybertruck that, hey, this is going to be a super easy vehicle to wrap.
如果我不得不猜测，我会说，起初特斯拉不会为Cybertruck提供任何内部包装服务。他们不想处理保修问题，也不想增加任何制造上的复杂性。但我认为这看起来非常棒，当然是免费宣传，并提醒那些可能不喜欢不锈钢Cybertruck外观的人，嘿，这将是一款超级容易包装的车辆。
And there's a reason I said Tesla is not trying to hide this vehicle. That's because they chose to drive it through an in-and-out in Mountain View, California. And if you're looking at the light bar on the front and thinking it looks a little weird, just remember when it comes to pixels and cameras and refresh rates, that will look like that when it's captured by a camera, not necessarily in real life. And notice the only people standing around are doing what? Taking pictures free marketing. Replying to that video, Elon said it's a tradition. So yeah, maybe this is very close to the final variant of the production version we'll eventually see.
我说特斯拉不想隐藏这辆车子是有原因的。因为他们选择在加州山景城的一家In-N-Out餐厅将这辆车开出来展示。如果你看到车前的灯条看起来有点奇怪，只要记住当涉及到像素和相机和刷新频率时，它在相机捕捉时会看起来这样，不一定是在现实生活中。请注意，周围唯一的人都是在拍照，这是免费宣传。埃隆评论说这是一个传统。所以，是的，也许这很接近我们最终会看到的生产版本的最终变体。
If any of you have experience wrapping a vehicle, let me know if you would plan to wrap a Cybertruck. I've never done it and would love to hear some real world feedback. Example are peeling concerns valid living in a snowy wet, dreary climate.
如果你们有在车上贴膜的经验，请告诉我你们是否打算给Cybertruck贴膜。我从未尝试过，很想听听真实世界的反馈。例如，在多雨多雪、阴沉的气候下，是否对脱落问题有担忧。
We hear a lot about how the top engineers after college want to work at Tesla and SpaceX. Well, Tesla's been busy actually going and getting some talent before they even get to college. Tesla just had signing day at Gigatexas. The manufacturing development program prepares graduating high school students to start successful manufacturing careers at Tesla. Tesla Korea tweeted out the first domestic deliveries of the Model S and X begin on June 16th.
我们经常听说大学毕业后的顶尖工程师想要在特斯拉和SpaceX工作。但是，在他们进入大学之前，特斯拉已经在积极地争取一些人才了。特斯拉刚刚在Gigatexas举行了签约仪式。该制造开发计划旨在培养高中毕业生，让他们开始在特斯拉上开展成功的制造职业生涯。特斯拉韩国在Twitter上发布消息称，Model S和X的首批国内交付将于6月16日开始。
Elon is set to meet again with the French President Emmanuel Macron after they just met on May 15th. Topics, factories and tech regulation. As well as AI, social media, regulation framework, perhaps around FSD, and of course cars and batteries. Macron said I'm going into that meeting with an agenda. Get in line buddy. The French Minister of Digital Affairs said France has already invested in an entire sector of electric batteries, noting four Gigafactory projects committed for the Northern region, saying it'll be great to have a Tesla factory in France. There's been a lot of effort and energy to make sure this is possible and this can happen. The truth is France was recruiting Elon and Tesla before Tesla even chose Gigabralin, so this is really just more of the same.
埃隆计划再次与法国总统马克龙会晤，他们刚在5月15日见面。讨论的话题包括工厂、技术监管、人工智能、社交媒体、监管框架、FSD技术以及当然还有汽车和电池。马克龙表示，我已经制定了会议议程。法国数字事务部长表示，法国已经投资了一整个电池行业，北部地区批准了四个超级工厂项目，并表示在法国拥有特斯拉工厂将是一件好事。为了实现这一目标，已经付出了许多努力和能量。事实上，法国还在特斯拉选择吉加布林之前就在招募埃隆和特斯拉了，所以这只是更多的同样之举。
Reuters just mentioned a factory which leaves the door open for a megapack factory, but CNBC did go as far as mentioning a Gigafactory which would imply both cars and batteries. The lovely Tesla boomer mama said of France, having lived there most of my adult life 24 years, I know the mentality, bureaucracy, labor unions, employment laws, this is mission impossible. She is not in favor of a Gigafactory in France. What say you?
路透社刚刚提到了一家工厂，为超级电池工厂留下了机会，但CNBC提到的吉加厂甚至可能意味着汽车和电池的生产。这位可爱的特斯拉妈妈在谈到法国时表示，因为我大部分成年生活都在那里度过，我知道那里的心态、官僚主义、工会和就业法规，这是不可能完成的任务。她不支持在法国建造吉加厂。你有什么建议呢？
Rizedad Energy is projecting a battery energy storage deployments to surpass 400 gigawatt hours per year by 2030 10x the current rate. Global best capacity additions were up 60% in 2022 compared to 2021. Total new installations in 2022 were 43 gigawatt hours. Another 74 gigawatt hours is expected to be added in 2023, up 72%. Here's a bar chart showing that growth. This of course in gigawatts which is the power, not the capacity which is gigawatt hours. Another way though you can see the breakdown in terms of country, Asia expected to lead the way by a large margin with North America trailing in second. Of course Tesla megapack will be a major driver of this growth over the next decade plus.
Rizedad Energy公司预计到2030年，电池能量储存的部署将超过每年400千兆瓦时，是目前速度的10倍。2022年，全球最佳容量增加比2021年增加了60%。2022年的总新装机容量为43千兆瓦时。预计2023年能再增加74千兆瓦时，增长72%。以下是柱状图显示该增长情况，这当然是以千兆瓦计算的，而不是以千兆瓦时计算的容量。另一方面，您还可以看到各国之间的分布情况，预计亚洲将以很大的差距领先，北美居于第二位。当然，特斯拉Megapack将在未来十年以上推动这一增长。
A big driver behind this growth, yes lower battery costs but the Inflation Reduction Act incentives. I really think this legislation will go down in history if it can stay in place for at least the next 5-10 years as really changing what America looks like from a manufacturing standpoint. Tech AU is reporting that we now have 10 cars in Australia with Tesla's FSD Beta up from 2 the last time we heard, not yet in consumers hands just for employee testing. According to Tesla Fi we now have the Model 3, Model Y and Model S all testing FSD Beta in Australia. The price for the base Model Y all wheel drive went up $250, no changes to the other two variants. As you can see that variant is still down 5% from where it began the year. Also for the base Model Y only right now you cannot choose the white seats, it's only black. Is this temporary? Hopefully maybe it's a shortage, maybe it's Tesla trying to encourage people into higher trim levels for a period of time, only time will tell.
这次增长的主要驱动力是电池成本下降以及通胀减少法案的激励措施。我真的认为如果这项立法至少能保持5-10年，它会成为历史上的里程碑，真正改变美国的制造业形态。Tech AU报道称，现在澳大利亚有10辆汽车采用特斯拉的FSD Beta技术，而上一次报道时只有2辆，但这些车并没有交到顾客手中，而是拿来供员工测试。据Tesla Fi称，现在Model 3、Model Y和Model S在澳大利亚都在测试FSD Beta技术。基础款Model Y的全轮驱动价格上涨了250美元，而其他两种型号没有变化。可以看到，该型号价格仍比年初降低了5%。此外，目前只能选择黑色座椅，不能选择白色座椅，这是否暂时的还需要时间来证实，或许这是座椅短缺或者特斯拉想在一段时间内鼓励人们升级到高配车型。
We have Goshen who's parent company has direct ties to the CCP looking to set up shop for some battery factories in Michigan, they just got the green light. There's a lot of local opposition to this but if it goes through Goshen is planning to spend about $2.4 billion for two separate battery factories. And yes as you would imagine taxpayer funding is in the mix. GM and Samsung just announced a new $3 billion battery factory in Indiana. This is now GM's 4th joint venture in North America, the 3 other ones are with LG, 2 of them are still in the works but the one in Ohio is now building cells. This new facility with Samsung will build nickel rich prismatic and cylindrical cells and should have a 30 gigawatt hour capacity when it's done. Construction is expected to begin in the next 12 months. I would just say 4 joint ventures each of which is supposed to be around 30 gigawatt hours, that's a lot of batteries for a company that isn't really selling that many EVs yet and can't possibly have that much anticipated expected demand. Point being GM better bring it with this first wave of Altium electric vehicles because if it doesn't it's going to run into an oversupply of batteries sooner rather than later.
我们有Goshen公司的母公司与中国共产党有直接联系，他们正在寻求在密歇根州建立一些电池工厂，他们刚刚得到了批准。当地有很多反对声音，但如果这一切顺利进行，Goshen计划为两个分别建设的电池工厂投资约24亿美元。是的，纳税人的资金也参与其中。通用汽车和三星刚刚宣布在印第安纳州建造了一个新的30亿美元的电池工厂。这是通用汽车在北美的第四个合资企业，其中另外三个是与LG合作，其中2个仍在筹备之中，但俄亥俄州的一家正在建造电池。这个与三星合作的新设施将建造富含镍的棱柱形和圆柱形电池，在完成后应该具有30吉瓦时的容量。建设预计在未来12个月内开始。我的意思是，通用汽车有4个合资企业，每个合资企业的电池产量都应约为30吉瓦时，对于一家尚未销售很多电动汽车且不可能有那么高预期需求的公司来说，这是很多电池。重点是，通用汽车一定要在第一批Altium电动汽车中做好，否则它会很快遇到电池供过于求的情况。
Today Ford has opened its new EV production center in Cologne Germany that's been undergoing a $2 billion renovation. First, this facility will produce Ford's new all-electric Explorer that's only for Europe, next will be a sports crossover and once this factory is ramped they're looking at about 250,000 EVs per year.
今天，福特汽车公司在德国科隆开设了全新的电动汽车生产中心，该中心进行了耗资20亿美元的改造。首先，该设施将生产福特汽车公司新款的专门面向欧洲市场的全电动探险者车型，接下来将生产一款运动型跨界车型。一旦工厂运行平稳，福特计划每年生产大约25万辆电动汽车。
After its 90% stock collapse since prior highs, Rivian is going to be removed from the NASDAQ index by June 20th. It's waiting in the index has fell below the threshold for 2 consecutive months so it's getting the boot.
由于股价较此前的高点暴跌90％，Rivian将在6月20日从NASDAQ指数中被移除。它的指数等待时间已经连续2个月低于门槛，因此它将被剔除。
This insider wrote an article about a road trip with the Toyota BZ4X basically saying it wasn't great charging experience was poor to which Elon said they should join the NAS coalition. And if you go to EV stations Tesla NAS charger adoption tracker and scroll down you can actually sort by the date announced to see the most recent announcements and today we had to one from email xway and another from Enviro spark joining the NAS coalition.
这位内部人士撰写了一篇有关与丰田BZ4X的公路旅行的文章，基本上说充电体验不好。埃隆说他们应该加入NAS联盟。如果你去EV站点特斯拉NAS充电器采用跟踪器并向下滚动，你实际上可以按宣布日期排序，以查看最新的公告。今天，我们有来自电子邮件xway和Enviro Spark加入NAS联盟的消息。
Replying to a chart shared by Genevieve showing how the money supply has really contracted since 2020 Elon warned deflation is coming. Remember you have inflation prices going up you have disinflation prices still going up but the rate has slowed and then deflation is actually prices going down for my visual learners here it is.
回复Genevieve分享的一张图表，展示自2020年以来货币供应实际上已经收缩，埃隆警告通缩正在来临。请记住，你会看到通货膨胀，价格上涨；你会看到物价滞涨，但增长速度有所减缓；而通缩则实际上指的是物价下跌。以下是我为视觉学习者准备的图表。
And yes Elon has thus been added to the prediction tracker I will be hanging out with Herbert from brighter here sometime soon so be sure to check out his channel for that one. You can find me on twitter at dillilumus22 hope you guys have a wonderful day.
是的，埃隆现在已经被加入到我的预测追踪器中了。我很快就会与来自更明亮这里的赫伯特一起出现，所以一定要关注他的频道。你可以在Twitter上找到我@dillilumus22，希望大家有美好的一天。
Please like the video if you did and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters.
如果您喜欢这个视频，请点赞，并向我所有的 Patreon 支持者表示巨大的感谢。