Barra Admits to Tesla's EV Leadership / The TSLA AI Debate / VW ID Buzz ⚡️
发布时间 2023-06-02 21:01:44 来源
摘要
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00:00 - If You Need a Friend
00:41 - Munro on Cybertruck
1:04 - Elon Speaking in Austin
1:28 - Panasonic Racing Ahead
2:59 - Citi's Mindshare Tracker Update
3:23 - EV Volumes
5:17 - Tesla as an AI Company
6:48 - Plaid Track Package
6:55 - Giga Austin Castings
7:20 - Tesla Shortcuts
7:29 - Tesla Showroom NM
7:50 - Barra Admits to Tesla's Leadership
9:20 - Tesla Needs to Copy GM
10:22 - Chinese NEV Incentives May Return
10:58 - Jaguar I-Pace Recall
11:15 - Stellantis/GM Fined
11:52 - VW ID Buzz
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Out of Spec: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6uu_r3lHa8&ab_channel=OutofSpecReviews
Tesla shortcuts: https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/1349/the-ultimate-guide-to-tesla-shortcuts-and-tips-you-may-not-know
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*Disclaimer: I was a financial advisor with Edward Jones for a number of years. That said, I am not your financial advisor so please always do your own research and do not base your investment decisions on my videos alone.
#MaryBarra #TeslaNews #VWIDBuzz
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中英文字稿 
Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dylan Lumis, quick shout out to my newest patron, Steve Boy. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. Real quick, I haven't done this in a while, but it's been on my mind today. If any of you out there are maybe a little down and out, you just need somebody to talk to. Well, please feel free to shoot me an email. I'd be happy to go back and forth text, call, jump on a phone, zoom call, whatever we can talk about, whatever you'd like. Just know I'm a resource for you if need be. And I mean this sincerely, one of the coolest parts of this whole thing for me the past few years has been actually getting to know some of you and interacting with some of you. So honestly, don't ever hesitate to reach out. I may not get back to you right away, but I will get back to you.
欢迎来到“Electrified”，我是主持人Dylan Lumis，特别感谢我的最新赞助者Steve Boy选择支持本频道。今天我想和大家聊聊一件事情，虽然已经有一段时间没有聊过了。如果大家中有人觉得心情有些低落，需要一个人来聊聊天，那么请随时给我发送邮件。我们可以通过文字聊天、电话、手机或者Zoom等方式聊天，无论你想聊什么，我都会是你的资源。
我想真诚地告诉大家，这些年来我最享受的事情之一就是能够借此机会认识你们，并与你们互动。所以，如果您需要帮助，请不要犹豫，随时与我联系。虽然我可能不能立刻回复你，但我一定会尽快回复。
Monroe did upload a video today going over the cyber truck interior photo we already talked about. It's really one of those videos just have to watch to understand it to try to get into the minds of Monroe and Tesla and how they're thinking about certain design choices. But I'm sharing because my biggest takeaway is what I said when the picture came out, what we saw is most likely not going to be the final version. So withhold judgment.
Monroe今天上传了一个视频，介绍了我们已经谈论过的cyber truck内部照片。这是那种必须观看才能理解的视频，试图进入Monroe和Tesla的思维和他们对某些设计选择的看法。但我分享的原因是我最想要的东西，就是当图片出现时所说的，我们看到的最有可能不是最终版本。所以请不要立刻下定论。
We have the Edison Electric Institute event coming up June 11th through the 13th in Austin. And if you scroll down and look at the keynote speakers, you'll see Tuesday morning Elon Musk. I'd also love to hear from Coach Prime. He's the man. If you didn't know, I know at least a few of you are out there near Austin. So here's the registration info. If you're interested and the JW Marriott is a fancy hotel,
我们即将在6月11日至13日在奥斯汀举办爱迪生电气研究所活动。如果您向下滚动并观看主题演讲嘉宾，您将看到周二早上的伊隆·马斯克。我也很想听听主教练普莱姆的发言。如果您不知道，我知道至少有一些人在奥斯汀附近。因此，这是注册信息。如果您有兴趣，JW万豪酒店是一家豪华的酒店。
we just got an update from Panasonic after their annual strategic meeting on their plans for battery production. Before we dive into the update, I just want to make it clear this third battery plant has actually been known now for some time. So it's really not news. But the update is that Panasonic is planning to make that third battery site in North America, official by March of next year.
我们刚刚收到了松下公司年度战略会议后有关电池生产计划的最新消息。在我们深入了解更新内容之前，我想明确表示这第三个电池工厂实际上已经为人所知了一段时间，所以这并不是新闻。但最新消息是，松下公司计划在明年三月正式将第三个电池工厂选址在北美。
So number one will be gig and Nevada with Tesla. Number two is the Dysodocyt in Kansas under construction. Now drone pilots wanted if you're near Dysod by the way, email me if you're interested. That site is starting with 2170s, mostly for Tesla. And then the third site will be upcoming announced next March over the next eight years or so. We have Panasonic looking to go from 50 gigawatt hours of production and procurement capacity to 200 gigawatt hours. Not only more cells, but improved cells as well improvements will be applied to a next gen version of the 2170 cylindrical and the upcoming 4680.
第一项是与特斯拉合作的吉格和内华达州。第二项是在堪萨斯州建设的Dysodocyt卫星。现在需要无人机驾驶员，如果你在Dysod附近，请给我发电子邮件，如果你有兴趣。该网站开始使用2170电池，主要用于特斯拉。第三个场地将于明年三月宣布，未来8年左右。我们与松下合作，计划将生产和采购能力从50千瓦时提高到200千瓦时。不仅有更多的电池单体，而且还有改进的电池单体，将应用于下一代的2170圆柱形电池和即将推出的4680电池。
There's no word on the location for this third site, but they did say it's set to be the same size as the Dysodocactory that's being built now, which will be 30 gigawatt hours.
关于这第三个场地的位置还没有任何消息，但他们确实说它将和目前正在建设的狄索无废厂一样大，即将达到30吉瓦时。
We talked about the 2170s starting in Kansas and they currently have a pilot line of 4680s in Japan. They pause that actual commercial production until later next year, but they confirm those Japan made 4680 batteries will be shipped to a North American customer.
我们谈论了2170年开始在堪萨斯生产，并且他们目前在日本拥有一条4680的试生产线。他们暂停了实际的商业生产直到明年晚些时候，但他们确认这些在日本生产的4680电池将被运往北美客户。
Panasonic also confirmed that 4680s might make their way to the Dysodocactory in Kansas as well.
松下还确认，4680的电池可能也会被运往肯萨斯州的Dysodocactory。
I won't spend much time here, but City just updated their mind share tracker, which is essentially just tracking internet search traffic for electric vehicles. The takeaway Tesla has consistently experienced significant net inflows from all automakers, particularly after the price cuts in April. Among Tesla's total visits, the strongest net inflows came from Hyundai Kia, Volvo and GM.
我不会在这里花太多时间，但City刚刚更新了他们的心智份额跟踪器，基本上它只是追踪电动汽车的互联网搜索流量。结论是特斯拉一直从所有汽车制造商中稳定地获得了显著的净流入，尤其是在四月份的降价后。在特斯拉的总访问量中，最强的净流入来自现代起亚、沃尔沃和通用汽车。
Let's have a look at a few graphs from Victor at EV volumes. This one Tesla share of the global light vehicle market. Of course, steadily trending up over time, but I want you to keep in mind. This number Tesla's goal at least is to eventually hit around 20%.
让我们来看一下维克多在EV销量方面提供的几个图表。这是特斯拉在全球轻型汽车市场的份额。当然，随着时间的推移，这一份额的趋势是稳步上升的，但我希望你记住一个数字。特斯拉的目标至少是最终达到约20%的市场份额。
Tesla says they want to do 20 million a year. Well, I have them at 15 million and maybe the overall auto sales annually shrinks from 80 or 90 million down to 70 million, which would put us around 20%. So just don't let it be lost on you that we're currently at 2%.
特斯拉表示想要年产2000万辆汽车。但是我认为他们最多只能生产1500万辆，而且整个汽车销售市场年销量可能从80到90万辆下降到70万辆左右，这将使我们的市场份额达到20％左右。所以，请不要忽视我们目前仅占据2％的市场份额。
So if you're feeling like you missed a boat or it's too late to get into Tesla, I would just tell you just look at this chart alone.
因此，如果你觉得自己错过了机会，或者认为现在进入特斯拉已经是太迟了，我只想告诉你，单单看一眼这张图表就好了。
Here we have the global EV adoption market share percentage, not just Tesla, but just cross that 10% mark quarter one of this year. Also of note, typically each quarter one you see a stark decline after quarter four, but not this year.
这里展示全球电动汽车的市场份额百分比，不仅包括特斯拉，而且仅在今年第一季度即超过10%的市场份额。值得一提的是，通常每个第一季度都会出现在第四季度之后的明显下降，但今年不是这样。
That trend was broken. So maybe it's the inflation reduction act tax credits. Maybe it's more EVs being available. Either way, it's a great sign for the rest of the year.
这一趋势已经被打破了。也许这是通货膨胀减缓法案税收抵免的结果，也许这是更多的电动汽车可用。无论哪种方式，这都是今年余下时期的好兆头。
And I hesitate to share this one because this is the one Elon and team have said, we're not really thinking about that at all. It's Tesla's share of the global EV market. But I'm sharing because I think it's an awesome reminder over the last five, 10 years, people have been saying competition is coming.
我有点犹豫要分享这个想法，因为这是埃隆和团队说过的话，他们并没有太在意这个问题。这个问题是特斯拉占据全球电动汽车市场的份额。但是我还是想分享一下，因为这是一个很棒的提醒：在过去五到十年里，人们一直在说竞争即将到来。
Tesla's losing its EV market share, all of the headlines. Well, in all actuality zoomed out from a global perspective, Tesla's global EV market share is actually up from where it was back in 2019. So yeah, at the end of the day, this metric really doesn't matter that much, but it's not like you can't learn anything from it.
特斯拉的电动汽车市场份额正在下降，所有的头条都在报道。实际上，从全球的角度来看，特斯拉的全球电动汽车市场份额实际上比2019年有所上升。所以说，总的来说，这个指标其实并不那么重要，但也不能说你不能从中获得一些启示。
Here's the simple takeaway. One out of every five EV sold around the world is still a Tesla. One out of every 10 cars sold globally is now an electric vehicle. And one out of every 50 cars of any type sold globally is a Tesla.
简单来说，全球每出售五台电动车中就有一台是特斯拉。全球每出售十辆车中就有一辆是电动车。全球每出售50辆任何类型的车中就有一辆是特斯拉。
Just in case you're not aware right now, a big reminder over the next year or so, one of the biggest points of contention for Tesla stock will be, is it an AI company?
提醒一下您，也许您现在还不知道，未来一年左右，特斯拉公司股票的最大争议点之一是，它是一个人工智能公司吗？
And if so, how much valuation should be attributed to it now? Yes, it's impossible to answer, but you have people like Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley saying that Tesla's valuation will be dominated only by the supply and demand of EVs over the next year, saying Tesla can be considered many things, but we think it's an auto company.
如果是这样的话，那么现在应该给它多少估值呢？是的，这个问题无法回答，但你会听到像摩根士丹利的亚当·乔纳斯这样的人说，特斯拉的估值将仅受到下一年电动汽车供需的影响，因此特斯拉可以被视为许多事情，但我们认为它是一家汽车公司。
The reason I'm sharing this now is to remind you that there will most likely be a ton of volatility in Tesla stock over the next six to 12 months, not just macro factors, but now we have this huge conversation of nobody really knowing how much value to give Tesla stock from an AI standpoint. And right now that's all of the craze in the market.
我现在分享这个原因是要提醒你，在未来的六到十二个月里，特斯拉股票很可能会出现大量的波动，这不仅涉及到宏观因素，还因为现在大家都没有一个确切的思路，不知道从人工智能角度赋予特斯拉股票多少价值。目前，人工智能是市场的热点。
And don't forget Tim Cook described autonomous cars as the mother of all AI projects. And this is the point Elon always tries to hammer home that from that perspective, autonomous driving, he cannot see second place with a telescope. And that doesn't even touch on Optimus or how Tesla uses AI in the car or in the factory or in every aspect of its business.
不要忘记蒂姆·库克曾将自动驾驶汽车描述为所有 AI 项目的母亲。这也是埃隆总是试图强调的一点，从这个角度来看，自动驾驶，他无法用望远镜看到第二名。而这甚至不涉及 Optimus 或特斯拉如何在汽车或工厂或商业的各个方面使用 AI。
And on top of that, we have Dojo and Tesla now hiring for an LLM engineer for a large language model, which is more generative type AI. So yeah, I don't know how much valuation it should be given, but I know the answer is not zero.
并且，我们现在还有道场和特斯拉在为一种较为生成型的大型语言模型招聘LLM工程师。所以，我不知道这种技术应该被给予多少估值，但我知道答案不是零。
In case any of you have been waiting for the Model S plaid track mode, well, today June 2nd is your lucky day.
如果你们中有人一直在等待Model S Plaid赛道模式，那么今天6月2日就是你们的幸运日了。
Here we have a picture of some castings outside of Giga Texas from Joe Tett Myers drone fly over. Word on the internet right now is this could be a group of rear castings for the cyber truck. I can't confirm it. Just wanted to pass it along.
在这里，我们有一张乔·泰特·迈尔斯的无人机拍摄的吉加德州外的铸件照片。网络上的流言是这可能是为了赛博卡车而制作的后方铸件组。我不能证实这一说法，只是想传递一下这个信息。
And real quick, if any of you plan to buy a cyber truck and you're thinking you may be one of the first ones to buy one and ultimately get one, please shoot me an email.
很快，如果你们中有人打算购买 Cyber Truck，并且你认为你可能会是第一批购买者并最终获得一台，请给我发送电子邮件。
I have a question for you. This isn't news, but it's a guide. I think you may want to have bookmarked just a list of Tesla shortcuts. And some you may not know about. It'll be linked below from drive Tesla Canada.
我有一个问题想问你。这不是新闻，但它是一份指南。我认为你可能想要收藏一份特斯拉快捷方式清单。其中一些你可能不知道。它将链接在加拿大特斯拉驱动下方。
Tesla now has its second showroom on tribal lands in New Mexico. The first one they took over and existing casino. This one they're building from the ground up. And what's cool, Tesla is also partnering with it. The play below of Santa Ana to provide workforce training in science tech, engineering arts and math. Education outreach at local high schools.
特斯拉现在在新墨西哥部落地区拥有了第二家展厅。第一家是他们接管了现有的赌场。这一家展厅他们从零开始建造。而且很酷的是，特斯拉还与旁边的圣安娜部落合作，为科学技术、工程、美术和数学等领域提供劳动力培训。他们也积极在当地高中开展教育宣传。
Mary Barra spoke at a conference today and to everybody saying there's no profitable future in autonomous driving. She said you're wrong. Saying there's a giant growth opportunity and she predicted personal self driving cars would be on the market before the end of the decade. She also reiterated that crews will be generating $50 billion every year in annual revenue in the next seven years. Bear in mind right now it's losing about $2 billion every year. Dubai and Japan are among future markets for crews as well as expansion into goods delivery and personal autonomous vehicles. And what do we have here? Maybe the quote of the year. Mary Barra acknowledged that Tesla has the lead in EV technology profitability and scale. But said that lead is not permanent. So she finally admits to not being the leader in EVs. I wonder what Joey Biden has to say about this comment from Mary.
玛丽·芭拉今天在一次会议上讲话，对于那些声称自动驾驶没有盈利未来的人，她说你是错的。她表示，自动驾驶存在巨大增长机会，并预测个人自动驾驶汽车将在本十年结束之前上市。她还重申，未来7年船队每年将产生500亿美元的收入。请注意，现在它正在每年亏损约20亿美元。迪拜和日本是船队未来的市场，还将扩展到货品配送和个人自动驾驶汽车。这可能是今年的最佳引用语之一。玛丽·芭拉承认特斯拉在电动汽车技术的盈利和规模方面处于领先地位。但她表示，这种领先地位并非永久的。因此，她最终承认自己不是电动汽车领域的领导者。我想知道乔·拜登对玛丽的这个评论有何看法。
And for as much flag as we give GM and Mary Barra, they also announced this. They're saying their partnership with POSCO is now expected to exceed $1 billion, which is primarily for Altium's cathode active material production in North America. Now, sure, it's a joint venture with another company and mostly that other company will be doing most of the developing. While we have Tesla now setting up its own cathode facility in house at Austin, we can't expect that from GM. But what we can and should celebrate is more of the battery supply chain coming from Asia to North America.
我们经常批评GM和玛丽·巴拉，但他们也宣布了一件好事。他们说他们与POSCO的合作预计将超过10亿美元，主要用于Altium在北美的阳极材料生产。当然，这是与其他公司的联合企业，而这个企业将主要进行大部分的开发工作。尽管现在特斯拉正在奥斯汀建立自己的阳极工厂，但我们不能指望GM也能这样做。但我们可以和应该庆祝的是，更多的电池供应链正在从亚洲转向北美。
Today really must be a special day because this is something that Tesla needs to copy from GM. This space may look like a showroom floor for GM's electric vehicles, but it's not. It is actually General Motors EV Live Studio, where an EV Live specialist seen here interacts over the internet with anyone curious about EV technology. The free live tour is a conversation driven by customers. This studio, which is in our secret location, was entirely built, purpose built, to educate people on those questions. Tell me if I'm crazy on this one, but I think it would be awesome for Tesla to copy GM here and have a little secret location where maybe on the website, people can go and schedule one of these free sessions to actually chat real time with a representative from Tesla, explaining and answering any questions they may have. You can ease customers' concerns, you can build relationships, it's a feature that friends would tell their friends about, oh, I just learned X, Y, and Z from Tesla's rep on this free call. I could go on and on, but I think it's great.
今天一定是个特殊的日子，因为这是特斯拉需要从通用汽车那里学习的东西。这个空间看起来像是GM电动汽车的展厅，但实际上不是。这是通用汽车EV Live Studio，一个EV Live专家在这里与对EV技术感到好奇的任何人进行互联网互动。这个免费的实时讲解是由客户推动的对话。这个位于我们保密地点的工作室是完全为了教育人们这些问题而建的。告诉我这件事情是否疯狂，但我认为特斯拉在这里可以效仿GM，有一个秘密的地方，也许在网站上，人们可以预约这样的免费会议，与特斯拉的代表实时聊天，解释并回答他们可能有的任何问题。你可以缓解客户的担忧，建立关系，这是朋友会告诉他们朋友的功能，哦，我从特斯拉的代表那里学到了X，Y和Z这些知识。我可以继续说下去，但我认为这是很棒的。
China is not yet confident its economy is on solid footing, and in response, they may extend and optimize NEV purchase tax exemptions. They're considering this for NEVs for another four years. One of the measures may be extending the purchase tax break for EVs and hybrids that cost less than $300,000 in E1, or about $42,000. New energy vehicles in China now have been avoiding that 10% purchase levy that other vehicles have seen for almost a decade now, but that is said to expire at the end of this year. So this is not official yet, but this of course would be great for Tesla.
中国尚未对其经济的稳健基础感到自信，因此他们可能会延长并优化新能源汽车购置免税政策。他们正在考虑为新能源汽车提供另外四年的购置税优惠。其中之一的措施可能是为购买价格低于30万元人民币（约合4.2万美元）的电动汽车和混合动力汽车延长购置税减免。目前，中国的新能源汽车已经避免了近十年来其他车辆所面临的10%购置税，但据说这项政策将在今年年底到期。因此，虽然这还不是正式宣布的，但这无疑对特斯拉是好消息。
Here we have a recall for the Jaguar I-Pace covering 6,300 vehicles, and they really have not been that many produced. The problem, battery fires, and the culprit sounds like LG. Dealers will have to, if necessary, replace the affected battery module or PEC.
在这里，我们要提醒万豪I-Pace车型的召回，涉及6,300辆车。实际上，这个数字并不是很多，说明这个车型生产数量并不高。问题是电池着火，罪魁祸首似乎是LG。经销商必要时需要更换受影响的电池模块或电动驱动系统（PEC）。
Stellantis and GM have paid fines, totaling $363 million in penalties for failing to meet US fuel economy requirements. Of that amount, 128 million was from GM, covering cars from 2016 and 2017. Previously, GM had not paid a cafe penalty in the 40-year history of the program. GM had initially planned to use credits to meet its compliant shortfall, but instead opted to pay penalties. It's the first time in three years the agency NITSA has collected fuel economy penalties, because NITSA runs the cafe program.
Stellantis和GM分别因未满足美国燃油经济要求而支付了总额为3.63亿美元的罚款。其中，1.28亿美元来自2016年和2017年的GM汽车。此前，自从该计划实施40年以来，GM从未支付燃油经济标准惩罚金。GM最初计划使用积分来弥补其不达标的缺口，但最终选择支付罚款。这是三年来NITSA机构第一次收取燃油经济标准的罚款，因为NITSA管理燃油经济标准计划。
Right now, there's a lot of buzz in the market about this one. Bad jokes aside, here we have the LWB Long Wheelbase version of the ID buzz coming to the United States market. No word yet on price, it'll have a 91kWh battery pack, no official EPA range, but the guess is around 260 miles. The word is, they may only have production capacity of about 100,000 of these per year, so the demand is going to be very high for this vehicle. Will there be huge dealer markups? How is VW going to handle this? They're still answering those questions. Would any of you guys ever consider buying an ID buzz? Let me know. You can find me on Twitter at DillonMumus22.
目前市场上有很多人在谈论这个。开个玩笑，这里有一款ID buzz LWB长轴版即将进入美国市场。价格尚未确定，它将搭载一块91 kWh的电池组，官方的EPA续航里程还没有公布，但猜测大约为260英里。据说它们每年只能生产约10万辆，因此对于这款车的需求将非常高。是否会有巨大的经销商涨价？大众将如何处理这个问题？他们还在回答这些问题。你们中有人会考虑购买ID buzz吗？请让我知道，你可以在Twitter上找到我@ DillonMumus22。
Hope you guys have a wonderful and a safe weekend.
希望你们度过一个愉快而安全的周末。
Please like the video if you did and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
如果您喜欢这个视频，请给它点赞。衷心感谢我所有的Patreon支持者。