Future of car-buying, will small dealers go extinct, opportunities in EV space | Steve Greenfield
发布时间 2023-04-14 09:00:13 来源
摘要
In this episode, I'm speaking with Steve Greenfield, Founder/CEO of Automotive Ventures and author of the book "The Future of Automotive Retail."
(0:00) Intro
(1:33) What will car-buying look like in 5-10 years?
(11:22) Are smaller dealerships at risk of extinction?
(14:12) Will auto-makers go direct-to-consumer?
(24:22) Investment opportunities in the EV space
(33:45) Trends that Automotive Ventures is focused on
(51:35) What has Steve changed his mind about in the last 5 years?
This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.
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I might have been more of a believer around we were going to get to 100% EV. But at this point, dealers aren't going anywhere. I don't think that we're going to get to 100% EVs, not in my lifetime. And like I said earlier, I don't think that the use case for human autonomy at level 5 is ever going to happen.
我以前或许更加相信我们将会迈向100%的电动汽车时代。但现在来看，汽车经销商仍将继续存在。我不认为我们会在我的有生之年实现100%的电动汽车，而且就像我之前所说，我也不认为人类5级自动驾驶的使用情境会出现。
What's up everyone? This is Car Dealership Guide. You're listening to the Car Dealership Guide podcast, which is my effort to give you access to the most unbiased and transparent insights into the car market. Before we start, I need your help to grow the Car Dealership Guide community. Please take a second to subscribe to the show and leave us a rating below so that more people can benefit from this content.
大家好！这里是汽车经销商指南。您正在收听汽车经销商指南播客，这是我努力为您提供最公正透明的汽车市场洞察力的努力。在我们开始之前，我需要您的帮助来扩大汽车经销商指南社区。请花一秒钟订阅节目并在下面留下评分，以便更多人受益于这个内容。
Alright, let's get into today's show. Steve Greenfield is founder and CEO of Automotive Ventures, an early stage auto technology and mobility VC fund that helps entrepreneurs race growth capital and accelerate their businesses. Steve previously served as TrueCars Senior VP of Strategy and Business Development and Auto Traders VP of Product Management and Business Development, where he oversaw the acquisitions of V Auto, Kelly Bluebook, HomeNet Automotive, Vint Solutions, and dealer science.
好的，让我们进入今天的节目。Steve Greenfield是汽车风险投资基金Automotive Ventures的创始人和首席执行官，该基金旨在帮助创业者获得成长资本并加速他们的业务发展，在早期阶段投资汽车技术和移动性。Steve曾担任TrueCars战略和业务发展高级副总裁和Auto Traders产品管理和业务发展副总裁，在此期间，他监督了V Auto、Kelly Bluebook、HomeNet Automotive、Vint Solutions和dealer science的收购。
In this conversation, we talk about how will the car buying experience change for consumers in 5 to 10 years? Are smaller dealerships at risk of extinction? Will auto manufacturers go direct to consumer like Tesla? The most compelling investment opportunities in the EV space, the main trends that Automotive Ventures is focused on. And everything as a service, will you really have to subscribe to your car's heated seats? Here's my conversation with Steve Greenfield.
在这次对话中，我们讨论了未来5到10年汽车购买的体验会发生什么变化？小型经销商是否处于灭绝的风险之中？汽车制造商是否会像特斯拉一样直接向消费者销售汽车？电动汽车领域最具吸引力的投资机会，以及汽车投资公司关注的主要趋势。而“一切皆服务”，您是否真的必须订阅您汽车的加热座椅？接下来，请听我与史蒂夫·格林菲尔德的对话。
All views of car dealership guy and any guests on this podcast are solely their opinions. You should not treat any opinion expressed by car dealership guy or any guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment. This podcast is for informational purposes only.
这个汽车经销商及任何特别嘉宾在本播客中表达的所有观点均属于其个人意见。你不应将汽车经销商或任何嘉宾的任何意见视为特定投资的具体引诱。这个播客仅供信息目的。
Alright Steve, great to have you here. Let's get started. So I think the where I want to start is the car business has changed a lot over the last 5 to 10 years and especially since COVID. There's been this acceleration of technology in the industry, but from your perspective, what will the car buying look like? 10 years for consumers?
好的，Steve，很高兴你能来。我们开始吧。我认为，我想先从汽车业在过去5到10年中发生了很大改变，特别是自 COVID-19 以来开始的。业内的技术在加速发展，但从你的角度来看，消费者在未来10年购车会是什么样子？
Yeah, it's a good question and a hard question. I've been now doing this for like 23 years and you know at the beginning of the internet, you know, the salesperson was going to get disrupted. All cars were going to sell online. Very very much the Amazon ask sort of like experience that one would expect with digitization, but you know, then carbona here this last year. I'm sure we'll talk about that a little bit today as well. But you know, that was a great experiment, you know, and I think for no lack of demand, but you know, the unit economics never could make sense. Right. From taking the inventory risk to all the logistics of the vehicle, etc. But never mind the technology and then the sheer cost of getting getting audience.
“这是个很好但也很难的问题。我从事这个行业已有23年了，就像互联网刚开始时，销售员就会受到冲击。所有车辆都会在线上销售，这就是数字化所期望的亚马逊体验。但是你知道最近一年的 Carbona 实验，我相信我们今天也会谈到一些，这是一个伟大的实验。但是，从承担库存风险到车辆物流等诸多因素，单车收益从未能让人满意。更不用说技术和获得观众的高昂成本了。”
But you know, I think to answer your question, I think the best example that we're seeing real time is car max right because car max now does offer an omnichannel experience in their words. So the consumer can opt for driveway delivery if they want or curbside pickup and you know, you read the earnings call transcripts and you know, they'd say that only 12% as of last quarter 12% of consumers are demanding sort of like this, this either curbside and or home delivery. So I think you know, we can only meet the consumer where they want to be met. And I, you know, I don't think that 10 years from now we're going to be 100% online driveway delivery, etc. Despite the fact, you know, there will be other car monies that pop up. And you know, you see what Lithia is doing with their rebranding the driveway dot com and wanting to have this national presence.
你知道，我认为回答你的问题，我们现在正在实时看到的最好的例子是卡玛克斯，因为卡玛克斯现在提供了他们所说的全渠道体验。因此，消费者可以选择车道递送或路边取货，而且你可以阅读收益电话转录，他们会说截至上个季度，仅有12%的消费者需要路边和/或家庭递送。所以我认为我们只能满足消费者想要被满足的地方。我不认为十年后我们会完全在线上递送等，尽管会出现其他汽车货币。而你可以看到莱西亚正在做什么，他们正在重新品牌化车道点点com，并希望具有这种全国性的存在。
I think that the interest is there to provide the consumer with a better buying experience. But I think you know fast forward 10 years, we're going to see still see the majority of vehicles transacting face to face at dealerships. And you know, there'll be a lot of technology that enables transparency upfront and negotiation upfront. But I think that the physical handoff of the vehicle and some of the negotiation for the majority of transactions will still be at the dealership.
我认为提供消费者更好的购买体验的兴趣是存在的。但是，我认为在快进10年后，我们仍然会看到大多数交易面对面在经销商处进行。并且，会有很多技术使得事先透明和谈判事先成为可能。但是，我认为对于大多数交易的实际交接和一些谈判仍然会在经销商处进行。
So, but you said something interesting. You said you said Carvano was a nice experiment past tense. Like explain that to me. Clearly, Carvano's market cap has gone decimated, but like you also mentioned a consumer demand is still there. So do you think that it's just the business model structurally did not work, but the consumer experience sticks around and dissipates throughout all the dealerships or do you think it's just altogether that type of consumer experience is just not sustainable.
所以，你说了一些有趣的话。你说过Carvano是一次不错的实验，使用了过去的时态。请向我解释清楚。显然，Carvano的市值已经被摧毁了，但你同时提到消费者需求仍然存在。那么你认为这只是商业模式结构上的失败，而消费者体验仍然贯穿于所有经销商吗？还是说这种类型的消费者体验根本不可持续？
No, I think kudos to the Carvano team. They prove that there is demand for that kind of experience, right? I mean, it was always intuitive and Amazon Esca experience per car buying, you know, we'd get support from consumers. I mean, that seems very intuitive, but someone need to prove that and the Carvano guys were able to prove that.
不，我认为应该向Carvano团队致敬。他们证明了这种体验有需求，对吧？我的意思是，一直以来我们都会直觉地觉得，像亚马逊这样的购车体验会得到消费者的支持。我是说，这似乎很直观，但有人需要证明这一点，而Carvano团队能够证明这一点。
I think that the unit economics other than that one quarter where they were profitable, where cars were, you know, for the first time in the history of automotive cars are actually appreciating the longer you hold on. That that that boated well for that one quarter, but beyond that, I think it's really, really has proven to be for them a very challenging model to make the unit economics work. It would be different. You know, if they didn't have to spend $400 million plus per year in marketing, if you could both that experience on to somebody who's already got consumer eyeballs, Allah, Amazon, Allah Walmart.
我认为，除了他们盈利的那个季度，他们的单元经济学表现不错，因为汽车的价值随着时间的推移而增值，这在汽车历史上还是第一次。这在那个季度表现得不错，但是除此之外，我认为对于他们来说，单元经济学非常具有挑战性。如果他们不必每年花费4亿多美元进行营销，那将是不同的情况。如果你能将这种体验转交给已经拥有消费者眼球的公司，如亚马逊、沃尔玛等，那就更加理想了。
It would be totally different and you might be able to prove out positive unit economics very quickly, but you know, just the sheer cost of generating that audience on the front end and then the incremental cost of all the logistics to get the car to people's driveways on the back end. I think just like was really, really challenging them for them to prove out positive unit economics.
这将是完全不同的情况，你可能能够很快证明出积极的单元经济效益，但是你知道，仅仅是产生那个受众的巨大成本，然后由于所有后勤成本把汽车送到人们的车道上所带来的递增成本。我认为，这对他们来说确实非常具有挑战性，以证明出积极的单元经济效益。
But why has it been so difficult to change the car buying process, right? Or like on one hand, I tell myself, okay, it's the car buying process is, you know, as a dealer, it still works and it seems like or at least people online have very different perspectives from customers walking into the showroom.
但为什么改变购车流程那么难呢？或者说，一方面，我告诉自己，作为一个经销商，购车流程还是有效的，至少在线上的人与步入展厅的顾客有很不同的看法。
On the other hand, you know, the business and you know, you look at you look at ratings and polls and whatnot, you know, use car salesmen are consistently ranked pretty low on, you know, trustworthiness and stuff like that, not as bad as politicians, but it's it's still pretty low relatively speaking to other industries. So, you know, what is it that that's just been so difficult about changing the car buying process or at least a perception for consumers?
另一方面，你知道的，商业世界里，你看看评级、民意调查什么的，二手车销售员的诚信度一直都排得比较低，虽然相对来说比政治家还好一些，但与其他行业相比，仍然是相当低的。那么，为什么改变购车流程或者至少为消费者改变这种印象一直都如此困难呢？
Do you think it's just a stigma that stuck around and it's been tough to shake off? Does the car dealership business need to rebrand or what is it? Well, in some ways, but I mean, the challenge is one, it's a very large purchase.
你认为这只是一个深入人心的污名，很难摆脱吗？汽车销售业需要重新塑造品牌吗？嗯，在某些方面是这样的，但我的意思是，挑战在于它是一个非常大的购买。
Number two is, I mean, there aren't very many product categories left now where you negotiate and especially with large purchases like what's left mattresses furniture and then like if you're smart enough jewelry, right, when you go by jewelry, you can negotiate. I mean, yeah, you can just buy them direct to consumer.
第二点是，我的意思是，现在几乎没有太多的产品类别需要你进行谈判，特别是在像床垫和家具这样的大宗购买中，如果你足够聪明，还可以谈判珠宝。当你买珠宝时，你可以与商家谈判。当然，你也可以直接向消费者购买。
I mean, if you're buying a Casper mattress or any of these other direct to consumer brands, you're not negotiating any longer. So, I mean, I think and you're furniture if you're buying on Amazon, obviously, you're not negotiating any longer. So, I think we are migrating away from and Amazon has has has has trained the next generation of shoppers not to negotiate right in fact, if anything, price transparency and ensuring feeling confident you've got the lowest price is really hard on the Amazon experience. They do that deliberately, right?
我的意思是，如果你购买Casper床垫或任何其他直接向消费者销售的品牌，你就不再需要谈判了。如果你在亚马逊购买家具，显然你也不需要谈判了。因此，我认为我们正在远离谈判，而亚马逊已经训练出下一代购物者不再进行谈判。实际上，价格透明度和确保你拥有最低价格在亚马逊上是非常困难的，他们有意为之，对吗？
It's really hard to get on and buy a product and be convinced that you've gotten the lowest price because there's no way to sort low to high like he used to be able to do on eBay. And you know, it's very convoluted. So, I think that given that it's a high price good purchasing is infrequent. There still is discounting both on new and on use.
很难购买一个产品并确信你得到了最低的价格，因为现在不再像以前在eBay上那样可以按从低到高排序。而且你知道，这是非常混乱的。因此，我认为既然这是一种高价商品，购买并不频繁。仍然有新的和旧的折扣。
I think and there's the uncertainty, you know, you know this better than me, but the uncertainty around whether I will get finance and whether I will be eligible for the incentives that I see online all means that you almost have to go in and talk face to face.
我认为，还存在着不确定性，你肯定比我更清楚，不确定我是否能够得到融资，以及是否有资格获得我在网上看到的激励措施，这意味着你几乎必须面对面谈判。
I'm a super prime buyer and I don't want to negotiate and I'm willing to pay MSRP. That's actually pretty easy to buy online. But if I'm not a super prime buyer and I don't know exactly which configuration of car that I want and I'm not certain if I'm going to get finance and I'm eligible for incentives, I almost have to go into the dealership.
我是一个豪华买家，不想谈判，愿意支付建议零售价。这在网上买还是相当容易的。但如果我不是一个豪华买家，不知道具体要买哪种车型，也不确定是否会得到贷款和优惠政策，那我几乎必须要去经销商那里。
So I think until such time as we say every car shall sell at MSRP and or every use car there's absolutely no negotiation. And we're very clear, hey, if you've got this credit score, you're going to qualify for this bank at this rate. And here's going to here's your payment and you can see what the FTC is trying to do.
我认为在我们规定每辆车都以厂商建议售价出售，或者每辆二手车都不再接受议价之前，这种情况将会一直存在。我们非常明确，如果你有这个信用评分，你将有资格享受这家银行的这个利率。在这里，你可以看到FTC试图做什么。
I mean, they're signaling let's try to force the industry through regulation to get there and be transparent online with what the outdoor prices. And by the way, you know, commit to what the pricing is for F and I products ahead of time. Well, that's a little utopian. I don't think they're going to be able to well, how on earth? Because well, listen, you know, you finance customers every day, correct?
我的意思是，他们的信号是通过监管来试图迫使行业透明公示室外广告的价格。顺便说一下，你们应该事先承诺F和I产品的定价。这有点空想。我不认为他们能够做到，因为听着，你们每天都为客户提供融资服务，对吗？
When a customer walks in, even if they've already done their got their credit score and they're certain that they're going to get a certain rate, how often are they actually eligible for the rate they think they're eligible for? Not very often. And the reason for that is because the different parts of the business are still so fragmented or you know, like they're just disconnected the lenders and the dealers and FNI products.
当客户进来时，即使他们已经得到了他们的信用评分，并确信他们将获得某个特定利率，他们实际上有多少次符合他们认为符合条件的利率？很少。原因是因为业务的不同部分仍然如此分散或者像贷方、经销商和FNI产品之间的关联不够紧密。
I think that's, you know, I think that's one of the things that Carvana did achieve, which is vertically integrating that entire vertically integrating, you know, the different parts that make up the car business and then connecting them through technology. And other dealers have done it as well, you know, like you've seen the Lithia do it. You know, there's just other companies that have managed to do that, but obviously takes a lot of money.
我认为，你知道的，我认为这是Carvana所实现的其中一件事情，那就是纵向整合整个汽车业务，并通过技术将其连接起来。其他经销商也做到了这一点，比如你已经看到Lithia也这样做了。还有其他公司也成功实现了这一点，但是显然需要大量的资金。
It's, you know, big upfront spend in order to provide that experience. So yeah, I do agree with you that where there's a lot of upstarts and you know startups that are trying to make that the norm for dealers, but it's been very difficult. So, you know, I've tried for a very long time to get all these systems to talk and it's just, it's really, really tough as a dealer and I consider myself pretty tech savvy.
这意味着需要巨额前期资金才能提供出色的用户体验。所以，我同意你的看法，许多初创企业都在努力让这成为经销商的标准，但这非常困难。所以，我尝试了很长时间让所有这些系统进行交流，但这对我作为一名经销商而言实在太难了，尽管我认为自己在技术方面很有见地。
So I can only imagine dealers that are less tech savvy or don't have internet or technology departments is probably even tougher. Yeah, so let's let's let's dwell there for a minute, right? So if you have the scale, if you're Carvana, Carmax, Lithia and you the scale to effectively have your own bank.
所以我能想象那些技术不太精通、没有互联网或技术部门的经销商可能会更加困难。是的，让我们停留在这里一分钟，好吗？如果你有规模，如果你是Carvana、Carmax、Lithia，你有足够的规模有效地拥有自己的银行。
You write the paper and have your own F and I company where you approve and you can, you know, there's no uncertainty around whether a consumer is eligible, what the pricing is for this particular vendor customer. Then yeah, I think that's exactly right. But then, you know, you aren't thinking about a future where there's going to be huge scale economies and the giants of the industry are going to win because they're the ones that are going to be able to provide this tight integration and this much more seamless consumer experience.
你可以编写论文，并拥有自己的 F 和 I 公司，在那里你可以批准，你也知道，消费者是否有资格以及特定厂商客户的定价是否确定，没有不确定性。然后，是的，我认为这完全正确。但是，你没有考虑到未来会有巨大的规模经济，行业的巨头们将胜出，因为他们将能够提供紧密的整合和更无缝的消费者体验。
And maybe the vision is that, you know, there can be a few dominant, huge national brands, Aladriveway, Carmax, Carvana or whoever like replaces Carvana and then, you know, that's it. And then, you know, the average dealer is going to have a hard time unless they carve out this like niche in their local market where they're differentiated in the minds of the consumer. And then, you know, a hard time ever competing online because of all the disparate systems you said that are really, really hard to stitch together unless you effectively own those disparate systems.
也许愿景就是只有一些主导的、巨大的国家品牌，比如Aladriveway、Carmax、Carvana或者取代Carvana的其他品牌，然后就这样了。在这种情况下，除非经销商在本地市场中打造出一种消费者心目中有差异的利基（产品或服务），否则平均经销商将很难生存。此外，由于你所说的这些不同的系统非常难以有效地拼接在一起，所以经销商们很难在网上竞争，除非他们实际上拥有这些不同的系统。
So that's a perfect segue because, you know, I wanted to ask you what happens to small dealerships or dealer groups over the next five to 10 years. Do you think they can compete? It sounds like based on what you just said, it's unlikely. But clearly, you know, you run automotive ventures, you're bullish on the dealership model and innovation with the dealership model.
这是一个很好的过渡话题，因为我想问你，在未来的五到十年里，小型经销商或经销商集团会发生什么。你认为他们能够竞争吗？根据你刚才所说，似乎是不太可能的。但显然，你经营汽车企业，对经销商模式和增强经销商模式的创新持乐观态度。
So, you know, I think that's a lot of the other owners are wrestling with this right now, you know, given that valuations are higher than they've ever been. Is this the right time to get out with all this uncertainty? And some are taking the opportunity to do that. Like with all the headwinds on the horizon on uncertainty is time to get out and put some money in the bank. But you know, I think that the dealers that I talked to that have like a good solid plan or like there's defensibility about having a good geographical concentration.
你知道的，我认为其他所有业主现在都在纠结这个问题，因为估值比以往任何时候都高。现在是不是退出的正确时机呢？有些人正在抓住这个机会，像是面对未知的挑战和不确定性，现在是时候退出并把一些钱存入银行了。但是，我认为我所谈到的那些有一个良好的、坚实的计划的经销商，或是有一个良好的地理集中度，他们有较好的防御能力。
So, there are dealer groups that have 15 stores in one or two cities where they've got, you know, good, a representation of a bunch of different popular brands. And then they can harmonize the technology stack, promote that family's brand or whatever that brand is locally and build up defensibility at least within that one city. And then for what we just talked about, like, you know, allowing them to own their own bank and own their own finance products, etc.
因此，有一些经销商集团在一个或两个城市拥有15家商店，在这些商店中展示了许多不同的流行品牌，从而在当地推广这些品牌的形象，并组成一个大家庭，统一技术堆栈。此外，该家族或品牌在当地能够建立起防御机制。同时，允许他们拥有自己的银行和金融产品等，创造更多的利润。
But you know, at least the scale economics of negotiating down the rate on F and I products, etc. The simplification of going to, you know, one uniform tech stack behind the scenes for reporting purposes, etc. And at least they get that geographical defensibility. But I think that the single mom and pop stores, right, as they say, are going to increasingly hard time differentiating, and especially with everything that's going on with, you know, OEMs in many cases on the new side, moving more towards like an agency model or some hybrid of an agency model.
但你知道的，至少在F和I产品利率谈判的规模经济学上，等等。简化后台报告技术堆栈，如一致的技术堆栈等等。至少他们有地理上的防御性。但我觉得独立小店，就像他们所说的，将会越来越难以区分，特别是随着OEM在许多情况下越来越多地走向代理模式或某种混合代理模式。
Tell us more about that. Tell us more about this agency model.
告诉我们更多关于那个事情的细节。告诉我们更多关于这个代理模型的信息。
Yeah, happy to. I mean, this is, you know, an area that I try to keep up on, although that's changing weekly.
嗯，很高兴能够帮忙。我的意思是，你知道的，这是一个我努力保持了解的领域，尽管情况每周都在变化。
So if you look at the friction, you know, as far as I'm concerned, you know, I've been 23 years in the industry, there's always been friction between an OEM and you mean a car manufacturer just seeing for the audience. Yeah, auto makers, correct. Yeah, the automaker and their franchise dealers and there's always been friction, right, be it, you know, the incentives, the facility upgrades, you know, image improvements, you know, brand alignment, you know, the new car allocations, you know, whatever it might be, right, captive finance, pulling shenanigans, consumer facing incentives, dealer facing its ass.
如果你看看摩擦的问题，在我看来，我已经在这个行业里待了23年，OEM和汽车制造商之间总是存在摩擦。这里说的是汽车制造商，方便观众理解。车厂商和他们的特许经销商之间总是存在摩擦，不管是激励机制、设施升级、形象改善、品牌的一致性、新车分配等等问题。一切可能的问题，包括自有融资、对消费者的激励措施，以及经销商面临的各种问题。
So, but you know, in the last couple of years, what's happened, we've had dealers print record profitability through the front end grosses, back end grosses have been like off the charts, and you know, no longer are we worried about dealers losing money on new car sales.
但你知道，在过去几年中发生了什么，我们的经销商通过前端利润打破了记录，后端利润就像是爆炸了，你知道，我们不再担心经销商在新车销售上亏钱的问题了。
At this point, what we've got is, you know, dealers making like record profitability. And you know, the OEM has been watching this and saying, oh, this is interesting.
目前我们所拥有的是，经销商实现了纪录性的盈利。而且我们的制造商也一直在关注这个情况，认为这很有趣。
COVID has subjected us all to an interesting experiment, right, if you've got cars that all sell at or above MSRP. And we can dial down the incentive spend. And every car that we produce gets gets gets sold almost immediately, if not in advance, suddenly it's like, oh, the whole supply chain makes more money.
COVID-19让我们经历了一次有趣的实验，特别是当你拥有一款所有车辆都以建议零售价以上的价格出售的汽车时。我们可以减少奖励支出，而每辆车我们都几乎可以立即销售，甚至提前。这突然让整个供应链赚更多的钱。
The OEM is make more money, the dealers make more money, the consumer, obviously, you know, have issues that you always talk about. And now we're going to have a bunch of consumers that when they go into trade in three years or sell their car, they're going to be way, way underwater because they've overpaid for these cars when they first bought them.
原始设备制造商（OEM）赚了更多的钱，经销商也赚了更多的钱，而消费者显然有问题，这是你总是谈论的。现在，我们将会遇到很多消费者，在三年后交易或卖掉他们的车时，他们会非常亏本，因为他们在第一次购买时就已经为这些车支付了过高的价格。
But the OEMs have said, okay, well, what have we learned through COVID? Well, you know, let's, let's try to build an environment where every car sells at MSRP. And consumers are much more conditioned for build order because everyone's going to make more profit.
但 OEM（原始设备制造商）们已经表示，我们从 COVID 中学到了什么？嗯，你知道的，让我们尝试构建一个每个汽车都按照建议零售价销售的环境。消费者更倾向于定制订单，因为每个人都会获得更多的利润。
The other thing is the OEMs, I would say in general, and maybe I'm generalizing here are dissatisfied with the inconsistency of the consumer experience and the dealerships, something you mentioned earlier, OEMs aren't happy that, you know, dealers reputations aren't very strong with consumers and consumers hate, you know, having to spend four hours of the dealership buying the car.
另一件事是OEM（原始设备制造商），我想说，总的来说，也许我在笼统化，他们对消费者体验和经销商的不一致感到不满，这是你之前提到的，OEM不高兴，你知道，经销商在消费者中的声誉不是很强大，消费者讨厌在经销商花费四个小时购买汽车。
意思：OEM，即厂商对汽车消费者在经销商购买时的消费体验不满意，认为经销商声誉不佳，这让消费者不喜欢在经销商花费过多时间购买汽车。
But on the OEMs aren't happy with any of this and haven't been for some time and they're like, oh, interesting. Well, what if we owned more of that consumer experience and we get the consumer to go to Hummer.com and, you know, put it down payment on a vehicle and wait for that vehicle to be produced.
然而，OEM（Original Equipment Manufacturers，即汽车制造商）对这一切都不满意，而且已经有一段时间了，他们认为：嗯，有趣。如果我们拥有更多的消费者体验，让消费者去Hummer.com预付购车款等待车辆生产，会怎么样呢？
We could still have the dealer be the point of delivery for that car, but no longer will they be haggling with the dealer all the negotiation on price, the trade in and the FNI products will all get, you know, basically negotiated online in a pleasing experience. And then the dealer will be a point of distribution and will help service the cars afterwards.
我们仍然可以让经销商成为交付该车的一点，但不再需要与经销商就价格、旧车置换和FNI产品进行磋商，所有这些可以在愉快的在线谈判中完成。然后经销商将成为分销点，帮助后续进行汽车维修服务。
Is that realistic? And I say that simply because of, you know, regulatory laws, franchise laws and whatnot is that what we're seeing it sounds to me like a hybrid of some form of direct consumer. And I know it's not fully direct consumer, but like how realistic is that great, great observation.
这个合理吗？我这么说是因为，你知道，监管法律，特许经营法律等等原因，听起来像是某种形式的直接消费者。我知道它不是完全的直接消费者，但这有多现实呢？非常好的观察。
So overseas, they're moving much more aggressive auto makers are moving much more aggressively. You saw Stellantis, for example, pair up the franchise agreements with 15,000 dealers last June over in Europe and replace them with an agent agreement where the OEM in that case, the automaker is going to take control of inventory and marketing to the consumer.
在海外，汽车制造商正在采取更加积极的行动。例如，去年6月，Stellantis与欧洲的15000家特许经销商结束合同，转而签订代理协议，此时的汽车制造商将掌控库存和向消费者进行营销。
The dealer no longer has the inventory risk and the dealer no longer has to advertise to the consumer. They simply need to, you know, fulfill the orders of the OEMs are going to generate here in the US.
经销商不再承担库存风险，也不必再向消费者做广告。他们只需要履行OEM在美国产生的订单即可。
We have state franchise laws. And even Tesla has only, you know, broken those down in 20 cases worked in 20 states they can sell directly without having franchises. So, you know, that's an uphill battle for Tesla, but they continue to to to to nick away at that.
我们有州特许经营法。即使特斯拉也只在20个案例中打破了这些法律，在这些州他们可以直接销售而不需要特许经营。所以，对于特斯拉来说，这是一场艰苦的斗争，但他们继续努力逐步打破这种局面。
But I think what we're seeing play out here is exactly what you said. It's a hybrid model where the OEMs will introduce new cars like like the Hummer, Volkswagen is looking at reintroducing the scope brand.
我认为我们正在目睹的就是你说的那种混合模式。汽车制造商将推出新车型，如悍马和大众正在考虑重新引入SCOPE品牌。
They will sell direct and whether or not the Volkswagen dealerships play some role in that we don't know yet. But what you're seeing is this like experimental experimentation around the edges with the franchise model here.
他们将直接销售产品，目前我们还不知道大众经销商是否会在其中扮演一定角色。不过，您所看到的是在这里使用加盟模式进行试验性实验。
But, you know, I think that we could all agree or from a dealer in OEM standpoint, we could all agree that selling every car at MSRP and not negotiating is really healthy for profitability. So, that's a good for consumers, but then you would have to believe that we will not get back to where we were pre-COVID with OEMs in general over producing cars and then stuffing the channel and then inventory backing up on dealers lots and then incentives coming and over the top to give both dealers and consumers the incentive of buying these cars where there isn't enough demand for supply.
然而，我认为我们可以达成一致，无论是从经销商还是从OEM的角度来看，以MSRP销售每辆车并且不谈判对盈利非常有利。因此，这对消费者来说是好事，但您必须相信我们不会回到疫情前的状态，即OEM总体上过度生产汽车并将其填充到渠道中，进而将库存积压在经销商的停车场上，以及过度推出激励措施，给经销商和消费者购买这些汽车的动力，而供应量并不足以满足需求的情况。
So, when you say stuffing the channel, right, so when that car when that car hits the lot, explain to us like does the manufacturer book that profit as soon as that car hits the lot or go ahead.
当你说充实渠道时，对于那辆车一到达车场，制造商是否立即将利润记录在账本中，还是等待汽车出售后再记录？请解释一下。
So, this is exactly right. So, this is one of the big changes that I think will break the back of any illusions that the OEMs have around the agency model, which is like who takes the inventory risk? Because the beautiful thing for the manufacturers today and up until now has been, you know, there's no there's no finished goods on their balance sheet at the end of the production line that car is sold wholesale to that dealer and it's being shipped to that dealer and that dealer takes all the inventory risk, all the inventory risk. So, with the agency model and what's being contemplated overseas is the automakers will actually take the inventory risk. So, now those that inventory is going to sit on their on their balance sheet and the first quarter where there's going to be a car that's built that's a dud if you remember back the example I always use is the Pontiac Aztec. If you remember the puny attack there will be the equivalent of Pontiac Aztec's built in new this new EV world we're entering as we over produce EVs according to demand and I think that what's going to happen is the OEMs are going to be glad, glad that they're continuing to wholesale these cars to dealers and they aren't taking the inventory risk because can you imagine this over in Europe when Stellantis just to sort of call it Stellantis, but they've been pretty vocal about this.
所以，这正是正确的。这是我认为将摧毁OEMs围绕中介模型所抱持的任何幻想之一的重大变革，就是谁承担库存风险？因为对于制造商来说，美好的事情直到现在为止都是，在生产线的末端，他们的资产负债表上没有成品，那辆汽车是批发给经销商并被运往经销商的，而那个经销商承担所有的库存风险。因此，通过中介模型和海外正在考虑的事情，汽车制造商将实际上承担库存风险。因此，现在，这些库存将在它们的资产负债表上存放，并且在出现类似于Pontiac Aztec的卖不出去的车时，第一季度将会出现类似的状况。如果你记得Pontiac Aztec这个例子，那么在我们进入这个新的EV世界后，这种情况将会发生，因为我们将根据需求过度生产EVs。我认为，OEMs会很高兴，很高兴他们继续向经销商批发这些车，而不承担库存风险，因为你能想象在欧洲，当Stellantis，只是称之为Stellantis，但他们一直非常公开地谈论这个问题时，这种情况会发生。
You know, has some EV they build that they've got to take a billion dollar right off some quarter the Wall Street analysts are going to skewer them. And so, and they may suddenly lose appetite lose religion around the agency model when they realize that the negatives, the negative ramifications of potentially holding inventory on their balance sheet where you've got like massive losses because the cars depreciate so dramatically.
你知道，有些电动车它们制造的，它们不得不在某个季度里承受十亿美元的损失，华尔街分析师们会抨击他们。因此，当他们意识到潜在持有存货对于其资产负债表的负面影响，其中包括汽车价值下跌剧烈导致的巨大亏损时，他们可能会突然失去对机构模式的兴趣和信仰。
So you mentioned EVs I get asked about EVs all the time it's super super hot topic especially on on the internet and the twitter verse. We're and specifically you just mentioned over production do you think we're going to head strong into the EV segment relative to demand how do you see this playing out.
你提到了电动汽车，我经常被问到电动汽车，它是一个非常热门的话题，特别是在互联网和推特上。我们现在谈到了过量生产，你认为我们是否会在电动汽车领域变得强势，与市场需求相比怎么看待这个情况？
Yes, why don't we elaborate absolutely so yes so I think yes I mean if you look at automotive news they said recently that there will be 150 new EV models. Over the next two years we're seeing dramatic aggressive stimulation from the US government to try to get people to buy these things. At the end of the day I think that there just isn't going to be the demand maybe that a lot of people are forecasting not that there isn't a man I think for certain use cases EVs are awesome right.
为什么不更详细地阐述一下呢？我认为近期汽车新闻提到，未来两年内将会推出150款新的电动汽车模型。美国政府也在积极促进人们购买这些车辆。但是，我认为最终可能并没有很多人预测的那样高的需求，当然这并不是说完全没有需求。对于某些使用场景，电动汽车非常棒。
For many use cases across the US US is a vast area you see one in five chargers aren't working right now according to JD power so even if we push all these EV and incent all these EV chargers if they aren't working and the handoff between the car and the EV charger doesn't work effectively well then we're going to have like massive problems I think with convincing consumers to buy these things.
在美国的许多用例中，据JD power称，五分之一的充电器现在无法正常工作。因此，即使我们推广所有这些电动车，并激励所有这些电动车充电器，如果它们无法正常工作，而且车辆和电动车充电器之间的交接效果不佳，那么我们将面临巨大的问题，即无法说服消费者购买这些产品。
So you think that it's going to be a problem because like how do you reconcile Tesla just had a great quarter I think they gained around 2% market share or so better than any other manufacturer of course EV so how do you reconcile that and and thinking that you know maybe we're over producing or is this just a problem that we're just not dare yet because EVs as whole are still less than 10% of the car economy at the moment.
你认为这可能会成为问题，因为特斯拉刚刚度过了一个伟大的季度，他们的市场份额增长大约2%，比其他任何汽车制造商都高，当然这是电动汽车，那么怎样解决这个问题？你认为我们可能生产过剩还是因为电动汽车整个市场所占比例仍不到10%，所以我们还没有到那个地步？
Yeah so I suspect it will top out at around 25 to 30% there's no magic to that but I think that to me that's like the natural demand you talk to people and you know you see you see data that shows people like they're buying EVs as a second vehicle in a household that makes a lot of sense or I mean a dense urban area right where I can either ensure that I've got charging at home or charging somewhere at work or wherever it might be.
我认为它的市场份额会在25％到30％之间达到顶峰，这并没有什么神奇之处，但我认为对我来说这是自然需求。你和人们聊天时，可以看到人们正在购买电动汽车作为家庭中的第二辆车，这很有道理，或者在拥挤的城市地区，我可以确保我在家或工作的地方有充电设施。
So I've got I've got charging that I can feel confident is going to work when I get there and be available but I think that there are a whole bunch of use cases you know pick up trucks that need for commercial purposes and towing capacity don't know if they're going to be able to figure that out right in terms of like the degradation of range people who commute long distances and have serious range anxiety. How are we going to address some of these use cases across the US so and then just general you know people are pushing back you see this it's become a very politic politicized topic there you know largely around you know the way people vote and you see that you know I think there's people who are going to be thinking this is a conspiracy theory and you the US government shouldn't be pushing so much of an incentive on EVs and I think that you know where the dust will settle on all this I think it's going to be a lot of things that are going to be done.
我有能够让我放心的充电方案，当我到达那里时，它可以正常工作并且可用。但我认为，有很多使用情况，比如商用需要拖车承载能力的皮卡车，不知道他们能否解决这个问题，例如电池寿命的衰减，还有那些需要长距离通勤且担心续航里程的人。我们该如何应对美国各地的这些使用情况。此外，一些人在反对电动汽车，这已经成为了一个极具政治色彩的话题。这主要是围绕人们的投票方式展开的。我认为，有些人会认为这是一个阴谋论，美国政府不应该对电动汽车施加过多的激励措施。我认为，这个问题最终会得到解决，并且我们会采取许多措施。
So I think we won't even get to 50% of EVs and the government will spend a lot of money stimulating demand and then you know when the incentive run out the truth will be told in terms of what actual natural demand is and I don't think that in this country in the US where you and I live I don't think that any time you know while we're alive the US government is going to ban ice cars I could be wrong they could ban ice cars but I don't think that that's going to happen in this country. I think there just needs to be a healthy balance I've mentioned multiple times I've been very vocal about you know these proclamations of going all EV or you know or one direction or the other I just think that you know like there needs to be a healthy balance and let the free market decide over a decade what you know what the market should look like but I do agree with you there that like banning ice you know banning this banning that only EV only high like there should just be a healthy balance and you know at the end of the day we just can't do it.
我认为我们甚至不会达到50%的电动汽车比例，政府将花费大量资金刺激需求，但是当激励措施结束时，实际的自然需求将会揭示出来。在我们居住的美国，我不认为美国政府会在我们活着的时候禁止冰汽车，尽管我可能是错的，他们可能会禁止冰汽车，但我不认为这种情况会发生在这个国家。我认为只需要保持健康的平衡，我多次提到过，我非常明确地表示过，要么全部使用电动汽车，要么是一条路线或另一条路线，我认为需要健康的平衡，并让自由市场在十年的时间内决定市场应该如何发展，但我同意你的看法，不应该禁止冰汽车、禁止这禁止那，只使用电动汽车或高端汽车，应该保持健康的平衡。最终，我们做不到。
We just can't do a complete transition I you know I think about it from a business perspective right we want to try a new product you want to expand to somewhere you're going to do a pilot right you're not just going to go and put all your eggs in one basket and you know burn the bridges no you're going to run a pilot you're going to test you're going to see how is it performing. And so I think about it you know a lot more or I systematically that way as opposed to this like hard caught off but I also realized that you know I'm not in those board rooms I know a lot of it's just politics and you know sort of signaling and whatnot so I know there's kind of multiple angles to this yeah you and I are aligned on that for sure.
我们就是无法完全进行过渡。如果从商业角度考虑，当想要尝试新产品或扩展到新地方时，我们应该进行试验，而不是把所有的筹码都压在一个篮子里。我们要运行一个试点，在测试后再做决定。我将此作为一种系统化的方式进行思考，而不是一个突然的断裂。但我也意识到，我不能决定所有事情，因为在决策的过程中，有许多政治和象征性的因素。所以，我知道这个问题有很多层面，但你和我肯定是一致的。
So let's talk about some juicy stuff on EV's because this is where I'm interested to kind of pick your brain or or get inside your thoughts. So what do you see the opportunities in the EV space you know like what's the picks and shovels right you've made some investments which have feel free to you know if you want to mention any here go for it but you've made some investments in the space clearly if we're out you know sub 10% today market share for EV's and you said yourself that you think it's going to peak around 25% or so and that's just your estimate but nonetheless that still you know accounts for more than doubling the current market shares are so there's still room for growth.
让我们谈谈有关电动车的一些有趣的事情，因为这是我感兴趣的领域，想要挖掘您的想法。您认为电动汽车领域有哪些机会，例如哪些公司能够实现快速增长？您已经在这个领域做了一些投资，如果您愿意，在此提到它们也可以。目前，电动汽车占据的市场份额不到10％，而您本人认为，最高可能达到25％左右。尽管这只是您的估计，但仍然意味着电动汽车市场份额将翻倍多。因此，我们可以看到该领域还有很大的发展空间。
And so you know what are the picks and shovels here right where is the value creation or who's going to capture the value in this kind of transition to some you know some percentage of market share of EV's. Yeah no it's a great question so almost anywhere you look you can find opportunities I mean there's huge strides being made in battery battery chemistry what one is to you know get more density per kilogram and that will allow us to increase the range but equally important is like charging speed and there are companies out there that are building prototypes that allow you to charge a vehicle in like five minutes. So clearly like if we can build lighter batteries that have more more power you can think of you know aircraft use cases for short hop aircraft commercial you can think of sort of like cars that will way less and run for longer range per charge if we can get the charging at five minutes a charge it will be miraculous right we would not to really worry about as in installing as many chargers because the chargers can charge the car so quickly you can just cycle the cars.
因此，您知道在这里使用的是什么工具，价值创造在哪里或者谁将在向某种比例的电动汽车市场份额的转变中获得价值。是的，这是一个很好的问题，几乎无论您看哪里，都可以找到机会，我的意思是，电池和电池化学正在取得巨大进步。其中一个是如何实现更高的每千克密度，这将使我们能够增加续航里程，但同样重要的是充电速度，有一些公司正在构建原型，使你可以在五分钟内充电一辆汽车。因此，如果我们能够制造更轻的电池以获得更多的动力，您可以考虑用于短程民航飞机商业用途的汽车，您可以考虑重量更轻且行驶距离更长的汽车的用例，如果我们可以将充电时间缩短到五分钟一次，那将是一个奇迹，我们无需安装太多的充电器，因为充电器可以如此迅速地为汽车充电，您只需循环汽车就可以了。
Through really quickly so that's battery chemistry and the charging infrastructure is very interesting you know it's it was amazing to me to see that JD power study with one in five chargers just doesn't work today. So it's driving Mercedes and Hyundai you know to think through like should we build our own proprietary which is exactly the wrong thing to do obviously broke many reasons but their own proprietary charging network where you know Mercedes charges will only work with Mercedes Tesla charges will only work with Tesla. So you know we're going to this proliferation of proprietary charging stations all over the US doesn't make any sense but you know because it's really hard to build a charger and then be agnostic to thirty different brands with different charging heads you know the flood configuration etc so.
阅读这些内容让我对电池化学和充电基础设施产生了浓厚的兴趣。令我惊讶的是JD Power的研究表明，五分之一的充电器今天根本无法正常工作。这促使梅赛德斯-奔驰和现代等公司考虑是否应该建立自己的专有充电网络，这显然是错误的方式，有很多理由，他们的充电网络只能适用于自己品牌的车，如梅赛德斯的充电器只能适用于梅赛德斯，特斯拉的充电器只能适用于特斯拉。因此，美国出现了许多专有充电站的泛滥，这没有任何意义。因为要建立一个适用于多个品牌、配备不同充电头和流量配置的充电器非常困难。
So for gas stations based on brand. Yeah exactly right imagine that I got to go to my Mercedes gas station that's my BMW plant gas station so that doesn't make any sense but you know someone's got to figure that out and that's part hardware and that's part software. And then there's companies like we invested in a company called recurrent which I hope becomes the quote unquote car facts of you know you used pre used EVs like if you're a dealer and you're bidding at the auction for an EV how on earth do you know what life is left on that vehicle and then how do you turn around and retail that to a consumer and give them confidence that there's remaining life left on that battery right so I mean someone's got to be able to analyze these batteries for the used use cases of which there are many and propose that and then the last one I'll be able to do that.
因此，对于基于品牌的加油站来说。是的，完全正确。想象一下，我得去我的梅赛德斯加油站或者我的宝马加油站，这是没有任何意义的，但是你知道，有人必须得解决这个问题，这既涉及硬件，也涉及软件。然后，有一些公司，例如我们所投资的一家名为Recurrent的公司，希望成为二手电动汽车的“汽车历史记录报告”。如果你是一位经销商，你正在竞标一辆二手电动汽车，你如何知道这辆车还剩下多少寿命？如何向消费者推广并给他们信心，告知此电池还剩余寿命？因此，有人必须能够分析这些车辆电池的使用情况，然后提供解决方案。这是最后要说的。
And then the last one I'll mention is you know charging infrastructure is very interesting so we're about to invest in this company out of the UK that effectively has what I would call like a daisy chain for a fast charger. So right now it's amazing to me I hadn't thought about this before I talked to these guys not these guys a couple months ago but you know everyone is building a fast charger and it's associated with one or two parking spaces. So this company allows us to abstract away from that and plug this pentacle like device one end into the fast charger and then you can plug in up to 20 cars out of one fast charger and then the way electricity works I've been told you can't charge all the cars simultaneously you got to charge them in sequence but then you can dictate in which sequence you like the charge of cars.
然后我要提到的最后一个是充电基础设施非常有趣，所以我们即将在英国投资这家公司，他们拥有一种我所谓的快速充电器的雏菊链。目前对我来说很惊人，我在几个月前与这些人交谈之前没有想过这个问题，但是你知道每个人都在建造快速充电器，并且与一个或两个停车位相关联。因此，这家公司允许我们抽象出来，并将这个五角星样的设备一端插入快速充电器，然后您可以从一个快速充电器中插入多达20辆汽车，然后电力的工作方式，我被告知无法同时为所有汽车充电，您必须按顺序为它们充电，但您可以决定充电的汽车顺序。
So you know you're leaving earlier in the morning your car gets charged first you're paying more electricity rates you get charged first so you can build all of those premium charging the higher hierarchy right of whatever rules you want for a fleet for a condo for a dealership who's got you know 20 cars getting picked up in the morning out of their service bay you plug all 20 cars in and suddenly the sequence of cars that get charged will be you know dictated by the dealership in the software that runs on top of the hardware.
如果你知道自己早上要出门，你的汽车就会首先充电，你需要支付更高的电费，以便你的汽车可以优先充电，因此你可以为船队、公寓或经销商建立高级充电规则，比如在早晨有20辆车从服务区拿走，你可以把所有的20辆车都插上插座，然后通过软件运行在硬件上，经销商就可以决定哪些车辆先充电。
So there are plenty of things here you know it's funny we joke internally we could literally launch just an EV fund right now and we wouldn't have any any lack of companies that we're seeing and just have a thesis only around electrification hardware software both. Everything battery technology you name it I mean there's all kinds of efficiencies that can be found I mean even tells us talking about you know building different types of magnets in their batteries and not using as many rare earth minerals right so I think there's all kinds of technology that has to still be found and discovered and you can definitely you can I haven't seen any yet but I'm certain there will be EV only funds out there hunting for these kinds of solutions yeah well you know I've started to see some EV.
这里有很多事情，很有趣。我们在内部开玩笑说，我们现在完全可以推出一个仅电动汽车基金，我们将不会缺少任何我们正在看到的公司，并且只需要一个电气化硬件和软件的论点。一切都是电池技术的发展，你可以找到各种不同的效率，甚至Tesla正在谈论如何在他们的电池中构建不同类型的磁铁，不再使用太多的稀土矿物质，所以我认为仍然有各种待发现的技术，肯定有专门寻找这些解决方案的电动汽车基金，尽管我还没有见过，但我确定很快会有。
Only dealerships start to pop up what's your thoughts on that. I think it's good it's going to be enough demand you can definitely carve out a niche and the funny thing is like I think a lot of the dealers do lament around franchise dealers that I talked to around it is my salesperson going to be prepared to have these kinds of conversations.
汽车经销商开始涌现，你有什么想法？我觉得这很好，需求会足够，你一定能占据一个利基市场，有趣的是，我认为很多经销商会抱怨我们与加盟经销商的谈话是否足够充分。
I think it's a lot of panic your technician well your mechanic as well but I mean you know so what kind of charge you're doing need should I buy this charger this charger and isn't going to work in my house equipped properly you know these kinds of questions they're going to ask their salesperson and you know the average salesperson you tell me I don't think is going to be ready to be able to answer those kinds of questions so having having a dealership and sales people and service people to your point who have deep expertise around electrification probably is going to be a nice differentiator.
我认为你的技术员和机械师会感到很多恐慌，但是我想你知道，他们会问什么样的充电器需要购买，这个充电器是否能够在我的家里适当地使用等等这些问题。他们会咨询销售人员，但是普通的销售人员恐怕不能够回答这些问题。因此，拥有专门了解电动化的汽车销售和服务人员，对于车行来说应该是一个不错的区别点。
You mentioned recurrent on that note right you mentioned recurrent as one of the companies you invested in on the software side we spoke about hardware what other opportunities you see software that's just going to you know really make the used EV experience use EV purchasing experience for consumers easy better and for dealers overall help them facilitate more of those sales what do you see there anything else.
你提到了Recurrent，这是你在软件领域投资的其中一家公司，我们刚刚也聊了聊硬件，你看到了哪些其他的软件机会，可以真正让消费者更轻松、更好地购买和使用EV，同时也能帮助经销商促进更多的销售呢？你还有其他看法吗？
Yes so I think yeah unpacking well there's two things right so unpacking this spider web of this convoluted spider web of EV incentives where you know my salary the car price what percentage of that battery was built on American soil and sourced on American soil what percent of that car was built on American soil is going to be too much for people to figure out and for dealers to figure out too you know if the dealer get reimbursed or the dealer get paid or the consumer get the right paid on these incentives so there's going to be a whole bunch of incentives out there and this lattice work of incentives is going to be really hard to get through so I as a consumer are going to need to deal to go to a website somewhere and say look here's me here's how much money I make here's the car I'm interested in here's where I live and then have the magic eight ball kind of shake and then I come spits my incentive and the dealers are going to have to be able to hit that database the consumers are going to be able to hit that database so I encourage folks to be you know entrepreneurs to be working on that problem because that problem has got to be like here today and it's going to be even more prevalent in the future and I think that I think the other is probably you're charging.
因此，我认为解包可能涉及到两个方面。首先，这个复杂的电动汽车激励计划网络实在是像一个纷乱的蜘蛛网，需要考虑我的工资、车价、电池是否在美国本土制造、车辆是否在美国本土制造等一系列因素，对于消费者和经销商来说，这将是太难以理解了。经销商如何获得赔偿，消费者又如何获得这些激励，对于这些网络，也需要有全新的设计来使得这个激励计划更易于理解。因此，作为消费者，我们需要去某个网站上查询我的工资和我居住的地方以及我所感兴趣的车型，利用这个大多数人所知道的神奇的查询方式，数据库可以很快进行查询，消费者和经销商也能快速进行信息对接。其次，就是充电问题，这也是需要思考解决方案的问题。
Well I would say that then you think about the search experiment experience I'm going to go to a website and I'm going to try to search for a car and I'm going to want I'm going to want on a used car or a new car want to be able to search by range and remaining range on that vehicle on a used vehicle what's the battery condition to the whole new cluster of like filters that someone's going to have to be able to access on these third party sites and dealer sites to be able to accommodate the unique EV properties and then even sort of like you know chargers in which charging network will accommodate that EV. And then I think there's the whole layer of software that has to sit on top of these these chargers themselves and I think part of the problem part of the reason that we've got 20% of chargers not working is because we've got software incompatibilities and we the software layer itself needs to get smarter and there are companies that still need to be built in that area.
我认为当你考虑到搜索实验的经验时，我会去一个网站，尝试搜索一辆车，我会想要搜索一辆二手车或新车，并想限制搜索范围和车辆剩余续航里程，在搜索二手车的时候，要查看电池状况等一整个新类别的筛选器。这些第三方网站和经销商网站需要具备独特的电动汽车属性才能满足需求，以及哪个充电网络可以容纳这种电动汽车。我认为还有一整层软件层需要放在这些充电器上，而20%的充电器不工作的问题部分源于软件不兼容，软件层本身需要变得更加智能，这方面还需要建立新的公司。
Yeah, and I think also dealers I mean you mentioned consumers buying EVs but you know I see it with dealers as well, but you know unsure you should I buy this EV versus this one and this Tesla for stat one and is this one in better conditions I think having better informed dealers that are able to source better quality cars and then of course sell those to consumers is going to be another opportunity as well.100% yeah, I mean I can only imagine poor dealer walking into an auction lane and seeing a Tesla and not really having bought Tesla's in the past.
是的，我认为销售商也是。你提到消费者购买电动汽车，但我也看到销售商的不确定性，是否应该购买这辆电动汽车还是另一辆，这个特斯拉的状态如何，还有另一辆车的状况如何。我认为，向更了解的销售商提供更好质量的汽车，并将其销售给消费者，也将是另一个机会。是的，我可以想象可怜的销售商走进拍卖场看到特斯拉，但以前从未购买过特斯拉。
How do you buy your first Tesla and not making the stake. It's not easy, especially you know when the price drops happen and then you know the Tesla new car price drops happen and then that impacted use car so you know some some dealers did take a bath and you know that was temporary. It doesn't mean that you should never buy or sell it even again but it was definitely added a layer of risk that you know made dealers think twice weight whoa like suddenly there's price risk and it wasn't only Tesla. It was you know then Ford dropped the price of their Mustang or their Maki and so there's suddenly the OEMs you know there's all these price fluctuations happening and it's just adds another layer of risk to the business.
如何购买您的第一辆特斯拉而不受损失。这并不容易，特别是当价格下跌发生时，您会知道特斯拉的新车价格下降了，这影响了二手车市场，所以一些经销商受到了波及，但这只是暂时的。这并不意味着您永远不应该买入或卖出，但它肯定增加了一层风险，使经销商三思而后行，像是突然出现了价格风险，而这不仅仅是特斯拉。例如，福特降低了野马或马基的价格，所以OEM厂商突然出现了价格波动，这只是为业务增加了另一层风险。
So going a bit more big picture we talked you know we spoke about EVs and some opportunities but what are general trends that you're focused on investing in right now like what's the hottest areas or maybe not necessarily hottest but what's the most important areas that you're focused on when you're looking for companies and opportunities right now. So I'd love to run this by your viewers and see you know if you get some feedback and anybody wants to reach out to me directly can so I wrote about this is you know last week in my my Intel report for April but let me run this by you because you you and I have a chance to catch up on this yet but you know talking to dealer owners I've been struck with this use case so.
我们谈论了电动车和一些机会，现在我想更深入一些，谈一下你们关注的投资潮流。有什么最热门或者最重要的领域是你们正在关注的，当你们寻找公司和机会的时候？我希望把这个问题交给您的观众，看看是否可以得到反馈，如果有人希望直接联系我，也可以。上个月我在我的情报报告中写了一些相关信息，但是让我来向你们介绍一下吧。与车行老板交流时，我对这个使用案例感到印象深刻。
Features on demand right so we're going to enter this era where the vehicle features themselves are going to get unbundled and then you're going to be allowed as a consumer to make the choice do you want to pay for full self driving up front or by the month. You want to pay for you know the cold weather package up front or by the month and you'll you could see a world a couple years from now where many of the features on the car that were built into the car on the production line are only unlocked by consumers who want to pay per month so now you know I'm paying 99 dollars a month for a bundle of features that I didn't activate when I first bought the car but as I made more money or got a bonus I decide oh let me get rear heated seats.
按需功能，我们即将进入这个时代，车辆本身的功能将被解除绑定，您作为消费者将被允许选择是要提前付全自动驾驶费用还是按月付费，是要提前付冷天气套装费用还是按月付费。您可能会看到几年后的世界，汽车上许多内置的功能只有消费者想要按月支付才会解锁，所以现在我支付每月99美元的一组功能，这些功能在我买车时我没有激活，但是随着我赚更多的钱或获得奖金，我决定加装后座加热座椅。
Whatever is that happening Steve and I want to cut you off because this is that you're making a great point by like no far away far away no I'm saying do we actually get there to the point where we so you know I forget how the term for this subscription whatever everything like that do we really get to that point. We're already there I mean look at your credit card and like you're paying for Disney plus and Netflix and Hulu and whatever else I mean we're already getting there and like every every I mean are you an Amazon Prime customer yes you are right of course you are because everybody is in America.
无论发生了什么，史蒂夫和我都想切断你的话题，因为你正在做一个很好的观点，但这似乎远远不够，我是说，我们真的能达到那个订阅的点吗？我们已经到那里了，我的意思是看看你的信用卡，你正在为迪士尼+、Netflix、Hulu以及其他任何东西付款，我们已经到了那个点，每一件事情都是这样，你是一个亚马逊Prime的客户，是吗？当然，因为在美国每个人都是。
So I think we're already there and yeah people have this visceral reaction but the truth is I only want to pay and younger people than me will only want to pay for heated seats during the months they use them. Wow. If I don't use them don't don't charge me right so I mean if there are features that I use a lot charge me and if there are features I choose not to use them don't charge me I think that's good right that's price discrimination in a good way.
我认为我们已经走在这条路上了，是的，人们可能会有那种直觉反应，但事实上只有当我需要的时候，我才想付费，年轻人也一样。比如说只有在冬季才会需要加热座椅。如果我不需要这些座椅，就不要向我收费。所以我不使用的功能不要向我收费，我使用频率高的功能则需要向我收费。这是一种好的价格歧视。
But anyway so let me run this by you so you're in the auction bidding on a car and you're looking at a you know a three year old BMW three series. And you drive it around the auction lot and you're like oh this is a pretty good car it's got like obviously got some extra horsepower and you know it looks like the battery range is like 500 miles or whatever. But what you don't know is that when you get that car back to your lot which features that you are experiencing right now are going to be deactivated because the owner is about to cancel them on their credit card.
总之，让我跟你说说。假设你正在拍卖会竞标一辆车，而你正在看一辆三年前的宝马3系。你开着它在拍卖场转了一圈，感觉不错，它显然拥有更强的马力，电池续航里程大约为500英里。但你不知道的是，当你把这辆车带回你的车厂时，哪些功能将被禁用。因为车主即将在他们的信用卡上取消这些功能。
So what when you're taking in a car on an appraisal off brand car that you're you're you're you're used car manager isn't familiar with. And here she is test you know doing a quick drive in appraisal they're like they're not going to know what that car is going to look and act like tomorrow. Probably it's going to look much more like a base model than it does today the souped up model. So how on earth is an appraiser not going to get their fingers burned and know which services are being paid for by the month.
当你的二手车经理评估一辆他不熟悉的品牌车时，该怎么办？他们简单试驾一下，对车子进行评估，但他们可能不知道这辆车明天的状态会是什么样子，它很可能会变得更像基本型而不是现在这个挂件升级型。因此，评估师如何才能避免受到损失并知道哪些服务每个月是否已经支付了呢？
So think about the use cases here the consumer is going to want some guarantee that all all the features are that who's trading it in all the features are paying for are going to get canceled and then they want a certificate certifying all my features have been canceled on the long going to be charged. You're appraisers going to want to know which features are going to get turned off tomorrow because I'm not paying you for features that are going to be turned off tomorrow and then you know a week later when that use car manager is demoing that car to somebody. How are they going to be able to toggle on and toggle off the features to showcase what they might pay and will be OEM be willing to pay your dealership that's an off brand dealership something if at the point of sale you convinced that consumer.
在思考使用情况时，消费者会希望获得一些保证，确保他们所购买的所有功能都是有效的并且不会被取消，还希望得到一个证明，证明所有的功能都已被取消，不会被收费。你的估价员需要知道哪些功能明天会被关闭，因为我不会为明天会关闭的功能支付费用。然后，一周后，当二手车经理向客户展示车辆时，他们如何能够切换功能，展示他们可能支付的内容？如果在销售时您能说服消费者，OEM是否愿意为非品牌经销商支付某些费用？
To buy some of these subscription services and by the way what's the windows stick are going to look like in the future because I think it's going to look like there's going to be a bunch of areas that are great out that may that have been built into the car that may or may not ever get activated. So how are you going to sell that as a use car. Five years later if you're an independent dealer how on earth and you don't have access to the windows sticker data you're going to be late in features in the car that you don't even know about.
购买一些订阅服务，顺便问一下未来的Windows贴条会是什么样子？因为我认为它看起来会像有一大堆的区域是灰色的，可能是内置在汽车中但可能永远都不会被激活的功能。那么在你作为二手车销售商向消费者销售时，你将如何推销这样一辆车？五年后，如果你是一家独立的经销商，而又无法获取Windows贴条数据，你可能会遗漏车辆中你甚至不知道的功能。
I don't have a good answer for that. So I would encourage is like you know there are there I just described multiple businesses that need to get built so entrepreneur should be thinking about these things and say oh okay cool I can build that central clearing house repository of all features. I'm going to be able to build the data around windows stickers in the future where I'm going to be able to protect that appraiser for making a mistake and appraising a subscription product that's about to be turned off tomorrow or I want to be the company that helps the consumer have confidence that when they trade that car and within 24 hours all of their subscriptions get cancelled.
我对这个问题没有一个好的答案。所以我鼓励的是，你们要知道，有许多需要建立的业务，我刚刚描述了一个多个业务的例子，所以创业者应该思考这些事情，然后说：哦，好的，我可以建立一个中央清算中心，存储所有功能信息。我将能够建立窗贴数据，未来我将能够保护评估员，防止他们在明天关闭的订阅产品的评估中出错，或者我想成为帮助消费者确信他们交易汽车后，24小时之内所有的订阅都被取消的公司。
They get reimbursed for the stub for the remainder of that month and they get a certificate that they won't be charged in the future. So there's there are businesses to be had but it were such such an obliterating edge early stage it's hard for me even to like obviously articulate what those businesses are going to look like.
他们会得到那个月剩余的车票费用的报销，并获得一份证书，以后不会再被收费。因此，还有一些可做的生意，但是由于处于早期阶段，这是一个很大的挑战，甚至很难明确描述这些生意将会是什么样子。
I'm just trying to think of something that's analogous to this and you know probably a bad example but this sounds to me like you know building coin base in like 2010 or whatever it started it's like what the hell is a cryptocurrency let a little bit coin like you're building a what like a marketplace for this like it makes zero sense this it just sounds to me based on what you just said that. That this you know peaks or so in a decade or that's when it you know gets you know really mainstream because it's it's you're right I never I haven't thought about this and it sounds like this is going to be a really big opportunity.
我只是试图想出一个类比的东西，也许不是很好的例子，但这听起来就像是在2010年左右建立Coinbase一样，就像在建立一个什么加密货币的市场，这听起来毫无意义，根据你刚才所说的，这在未来十年内可能会达到高峰，或者说在未来十年内会变得非常流行，因为你是正确的，我从未想过这一点，听起来像是一个非常好的机会。
Yeah I think a big problem if it isn't solved but a big opportunity for the entrepreneur that gets the timing right wow and then so and what other trends I mean this is obviously a great one anything else that you're focused on obviously this is just one vertical anything else specific.
是的，我认为这是一个重大问题，如果没有解决，但对于能抓住时机的企业家来说也是一个巨大的机遇。那么还有哪些趋势，我意味着这显然是一个伟大的趋势之一，你关注的其他方面有什么具体的吗？
Well I mean just just in general over the updates right I think that you know we're seeing some consultants believe that a lot of a dealer service work the warranty and recall work is going to go away because of software pushes to cars in in lieu of taking the car in and getting that warranty or recall work a dealership so we're trying to figure out if there's an opportunity for us to participate in over the updates I think that servicing vehicles in general you know are there efficiencies to be had there by making sure that you know we're going to be able to do that.
我的意思是，在更新过程中，由于软件升级，我们可能会看到一些顾问认为经销商服务工作的很多保修和召回工作都会消失，车主不需要再把车开到经销商那里来修理保修或召回问题。因此，我们正在尝试找出我们能够参与到更新过程中的机会。我认为，总的来说，维修车辆是否有效率可提高，要确保我们能够做到这一点。
And there are efficiencies to be had there by making your technicians and your service writers much more efficient we invested in the company called war cloud which automates the warranty processing back to the manufacturers on behalf of franchise dealers and that company is doing very very well but I think this whole area of you know robotic process automation you see all this buzz around AI right now but the practical implications of that is you know dealer is run pretty heavy with personnel.
在这方面，通过让技术人员和服务作家更有效率，可以提高效率。我们投资了一个名叫战云的公司，该公司代表特许经销商自动化处理保修问题，向制造商回报。这家公司的业务非常成功，但我认为机器人流程自动化这个整个领域，你看到所有这些AI的噪音，但实际的含义是，你知道，经销商有很多人员。
I think a lot a lot of those personnel do repetitive tasks and anywhere there are repetitive tasks that a computer can emulate I think that there'll be opportunities to like basically free those people up and eliminate the positions out right and I think you know and also just add to that that you know as a dealer like technicians it's some of the hardest positions or toughest positions to hire because there's been a shortage of them for many years and it's you know you really can't find them in many cases you know you increase comp you offer you know bonuses and what not sign on bonuses it's still super tough because everyone's doing it so I think that's the you know on that positive just to you know relieve some of that stress on the on the system.
我认为很多人员从事的是重复性的工作，在任何计算机能够模拟的重复性任务的地方，我认为就会有机会将这些人解放出来，直接淘汰这些职位。我还认为，像技术人员这样的职位是最难招聘的，因为这个行业多年来一直存在缺口，很难找到这种人才。即使你提高报酬、提供奖金和签约奖金，也仍然非常困难，因为所有人都在做这个工作。因此，我认为这是一个积极的方面，可以缓解系统的一些压力。
Yeah I mean I'll see yes the consumer electronic show in Vegas in January and one of the booths showed a simulation of a technician working on a break rotor repair and you had sort of like the equivalent of Google glass I don't know which technology I should know which technology it was but you'll be able to see visually you the augmented reality of like what the ideal repair was versus like the repair that I'm currently using it where to put the break pads etc so I think to your point I mean if you're going to have technician and make that investment give them the tools to make them much more efficient and so one area we're interested in is the whole you know automation you know augmentation and making much the employees much more efficient and replacing them but you know are there other technologies like the one I just subscribe to make your existing employees much more efficient and productive.
我的意思是，1月份我会在拉斯维加斯参加消费电子展（Consumer Electronic Show），其中一个展位展示了一个技术人员正在进行刹车盘维修的模拟，你会看到类似谷歌眼镜的增强现实技术，我不知道具体是哪种技术，但你可以直观地看到一种理想的维修方式，与目前使用的维修方式（如何放置刹车垫等）进行比较。因此，如果你要培养技术人员，就要给他们提供更高效的工具，从而提高他们的效率。我们对自动化、增强和增强现有员工效率的其他技术感兴趣。
Steve you wrote a great book which I highly encourage you know anyone here to read it's called the future of automotive retail super interesting you know hearing your perspective on what retail look like and I like how you wrote it in a way where it's almost like a story you know you can tell how kind of car businesses evolved.
Steve，你写了一本非常棒的书，我强烈推荐任何在这里的人都要阅读，它叫做“汽车零售的未来”，非常有趣。我喜欢你在书中描述零售行业的观点，以及你以故事的方式进行书写，让读者了解汽车业务的发展历程。
But you know just to give the viewers a taste of you know this book and specifically what that future looks like because everyone is wondering you know car dealership guy like when is when is car buying going to really change or be this or that you know what's going to change and I know we briefly touch on this early in the conversation but can you just give us like a you know I'm just a preview or a paragraph just so that people understand you know five to 10 years away what is that experience look like between consumers and dealers.
你知道，只是为了让观众们了解一下这本书，特别是未来的样子，因为大家都在猜想汽车销售行业会在什么时候真正改变或变成什么样子，会有哪些变化。虽然我们在谈话早期已经简单地提到了这个话题，但你能否给我们一个大致的预览或段落，让人们了解消费者和经销商之间的体验在 5 到 10 年的未来会是什么样子。
How has that experience evolved and how is it different from today.
那种经历如何发展，与今天有何不同？
Yeah so I think you can look back 20 years 25 years at the beginning of the internet right I mean there was no information there was a lot of information asymmetry there wasn't a lot of transparency for consumers so.
嗯，我认为你可以回顾一下20年或25年前互联网的初始时期，那时候几乎没有信息，信息不对称很多，对消费者来说透明度也不高。
The horses have left the barn as they say and there will be more transparency so whereas on the front of the car deal the price of the vehicle there's been a lot of transparency now I can get invoice price now I know what the competitive set is I know you know the competition in terms of the car that I'm looking for I think there'll be a lot more transparency.
正如人们所说的，马已经离开马厩了，将会有更多的透明度。在购车交易中，车辆价格方面已经有了很多透明度，现在我可以获得发票价格，也知道竞争对手的情况，了解我所寻找的汽车的竞争对手。我认为将会有更多的透明度。
The deal is not like to hear this but a lot more transparency on the back end of the car deal you know the the financing and you know being able to understand exactly if I qualify what my rate should be if you're overcharging me etc and also transparency around the insurance products where there has not been is very very opaque part of that transparency will come through just the internet and being able to kind of cross shop some of that transparency will come through FTC regulations right.
这个交易可能不太令人愉快，但我们需要更多的汽车交易后期透明度，比如融资和理解我是否符合资格、我的利率应该是多少，以及是否收取过高费用等等。还需要透明度的是保险产品，这是非常模糊的一个部分，这种透明度可以通过互联网来实现，可以进行交叉比价，同时也需要遵守联邦贸易委员会的相关规定。
That are already been signaled but you know really haven't come to barriot so I think that the transparency will be good for the consumer not so good for the dealer. So I think the fast forwarding 5 or 10 years it'll be much more transparent the consumer will be more in control of a lot of these areas of the car deal being able to configure it but as I said earlier where we started the conversation I still believe the vast majority of transactions will take place at the dealership large because it's a lot more.
这些问题已经有了预兆，但还没有完全爆发，因此我认为透明度对消费者有好处，但对经销商不太好。因此，我认为如果快进5或10年，消费者将更多地掌控车辆交易的许多领域，能够进行配置，透明度将会更高。但正如我们开头谈论的那样，我仍然相信绝大多数交易仍将在经销店完成，因为那里更方便。
It's a very large purchase and there's still is going to be a lot of uncertainty unless you're like a super prime customer and you're willing to pay with no negotiation. Yeah look I think that you know I I'm very pragmatic when it comes to this topic and people ask me like hey you know these dealers are going to disappear or this and I say well dealers are going to change right like you know yes a new car might not be sold at a dealership it might become the dealership might just be the fulfillment center right but then there's the service side of the business and and so I always say to people that ask me especially on Twitter I say dealers are not going to go away but certain aspects of the dealership model will and others will just evolve.
这是一笔非常大的交易，除非你是超级高级的客户并愿意不议价付款，否则仍然会有很多不确定性。是的，我认为当涉及到这个话题时，我非常务实，人们问我像“嘿，你知道这些经销商要消失了还是什么的”我说经销商会改变。是的，新车可能不会在一个经销商那里出售，而这个经销商可能只是一个履行中心，但是服务方面的业务就在那里。所以我总是告诉人们，特别是在Twitter上问我的人，我说经销商不会消失，但经销商模式的某些方面会消失，而其他方面则会不断进化。
And I think that's where you know for like the car manufacturer is the dealer so important right it's the servicing of course there's a use car business parts distribution and whatnot. So there's just that's the thing about the dealership model in general that you have so many different revenue streams and in profit centers that it's a very diversified business and you know the use car business is a bit less so where you just really have one main profit center which is your use car sale of course that's made up of selling a car and a for some of the products and other things but it's still you know pretty distinct models.
我认为这就是你了解汽车制造商与经销商的关键所在。他们提供维修服务、二手车交易、零配件分销等等。这就是经销商模式的一个优点——有如此多的收入流和盈利中心，这是一个非常多元化的业务。而二手车交易就比较单一，只有一个主要的盈利中心，也就是售卖二手车。当然，这还包括一些其他产品和服务，但模式还是比较简单的。
So to move forward from there a fun one is just autonomous vehicles you know it's not a topic that I get asked too much about lately or too often I used to get asked about it a lot more but is this going to happen well like when is it going to happen are we talking like five years 20 years ever not happening what's your what's your take on a V's.
因此，往前推进，一个有趣的话题就是自主驾驶汽车。你知道，这不是最近我被问得太多或太频繁的话题。我曾经被问得更多，但这个问题将会发生吗？我们是指5年、20年还是永远不会发生呢？你对自主驾驶汽车有什么看法？
It's playing as a slide that I show from back in 2013 I think it's more good Stanley had said that by this point with half the cars on the road would be like fully autonomous and it would decimate you know new car sales because the car could be much more efficient there was a stat I remember people talked about the average cars only being used 4% of the time if we can increase that that utilization rate then there we we have way too many cars right for for the mileage driven so you know every every Uber I believe I believe Uber's business was built on the premise that they thought that autonomy was coming and the only way to squeeze positive unit economics out of Uber were to have like the remove the drivers entirely so that's another topic entirely I think that my short answer would be for human cargo moving humans around level 5 full autonomy is never going to happen.
这是我从2013年开始演示的幻灯片，斯坦利曾说过，到这个时候一半的车将是完全自动驾驶的，这将会减少新车销售，因为车辆效率更高了。我记得有一个数据，人们谈论的是普通车只有时间的百分之四被使用。如果我们能提高利用率，那么我们的汽车就太多了，车辆里程驾驶量太大。每个Uber都是基于自主驾驶的想法而建立的，唯一能将积极单位经济挤出Uber的方法是完全撤掉司机。我认为，对于人类货物运输的短期解决方案，实现5级完全自动驾驶永远不可能。
Wow that's bold I think that I think for moving non human cargo around we're already seeing evidence of it right whether it's Amazon flying drones and dropping off packages whether what they call on on roads platooning you're going to see this soon which is going to freak people out but you know if you remember the the Logan movie the Wolverine movie in the future you're going to have basically a platoon of semi's in the first cab you have a human driving but every subsequent cab and trailer there won't be humans driving there's going to follow the rules follow directly behind that first semi on the road and these things will be doing long haul trucking across the U.S.
哇，这非常大胆，我认为我们在搬运非人类的货物方面已经看到了一些证据，无论是亚马逊飞行无人机和投递包裹，还是所谓的道路编队，你很快就会看到这种情况，这会让人们感到恐慌，但是如果你记得金刚狼的电影，你会发现在未来，你基本上会看到一组卡车驾驶半自动化，第一辆卡车由人类驾驶，紧随其后的卡车和拖车都没有人驾驶，只需遵循第一辆卡车在道路上行驶的规则就行，这些车将在美国进行长途货运。
It's going to alleviate any challenges we have with labor shortages around long haul trucking and it'll be eerie to see these things because you'll see five or ten trucks all lined up and the only human will be in the first cab of the first truck so we're seeing that but the reason I say that about human cargo is the fact that it's just challenging right you think about how these cars work and if you try to drive a car with a lot of these eight class systems in snowstorm or thunderstorm today they turn them off they'll warn you and then they'll turn them off because you know they rely on lenses right there's cameras light are radar and those lenses have to be clean and clear and you know I grew up in Toronto and at this time of year if you go to Toronto all the cars are caked with salt and those lenses aren't working so if you're relying on clean lenses to interact with the environment to compare to a reference map of other cars that have seen this surroundings it's not going to work so I think this utopian oh in every single climate in every single condition we're going to have full autonomy isn't going to work there's a reason why you're these full autonomous tests from way more in cruise and even Tesla are typically in you know Phoenix or SunEvail because the weather is perfect every day there you start bringing it up to you know different cities in the northeast and it's not going to not going to work so I think that we will not full autonomy in my lifetime they might call it full autonomy like Tesla does but in a lot of conditions it'll warn the driver and then turn off so I mean it doesn't reconcile with removing the steering wheel and pedals from these cars because if the car is going to like pull over in a thunderstorm or a snow storm and hand back control it can't hand back control if there's no steering wheel.
这将缓解我们在长途卡车运输方面劳动力短缺所遇到的任何问题，并且当您看到这些情况时，会感到非常诡异，因为您会看到五到十辆卡车排成一排，而仅有的人则在第一辆卡车的驾驶室里，因此我们看到的原因是关于人类货物，实际上很具有挑战性。您想想这些汽车的工作方式，如果您尝试在今天的暴风雪或雷暴中驾驶一辆具有大量这些8类系统的汽车，它们会把它们关掉并警告您，因为它们依赖镜头，例如相机光电雷达，这些镜头必须保持清洁和清晰，您知道我在多伦多长大，在这个时候的一年中，如果您去多伦多，所有的汽车都被盐覆盖着，这些镜头不能正常工作，因此，如果您依赖于清洁镜头与环境互动，并与看到这个环境的其他汽车对比的参考地图进行比较，那么它将无法正常工作。因此，我认为这种“乌托邦”理想状态，在任何气候和任何条件下都实现全面自主是行不通的，这有一个原因是这些全自主测试的位置通常在亚利桑那州或素尼维尔之类的地方，因为那里天气非常完美。如果您开始将其引入东北部的不同城市，那么它将无法正常工作。因此，我认为在我的一生中不会出现全面自治，他们可能会像特斯拉一样称之为全面自治，但在很多情况下，它会警告驾驶员并关闭。这与从这些车中删除方向盘和踏板不相符，因为如果汽车将在雷暴或暴风雪中停车并交回控制权，那么如果没有方向盘，它就无法交回控制权。
Well I mean I think that initially I was going to say that is this just like an American thing because of regulations because we know that technology is you know at least a portion of it is there already but so you think that this is just global right you don't think that anywhere else we're going to see full autonomy. Well I don't know there will be experiments done right where the government can reach down and push push on this and we'll see how that works out I still think that you even despite that I think everybody who comments that it's still safer than having humans I'm always amazed that you know two in the morning I'll get into a city I hop into an Uber with a guy that could be drunk could be drugged up and I'm relying on this 23 year old kid who I don't know I put my life in their hands what a crazy. What a crazy what a crazy value proposition when you think about uber launching and how successful they've been and how we all use it and then you think of exactly what you just said that stranger quote unquote is going to pick you up and I think of this often one of these ubers around around the country I think I'm counting that they value their life as much as I value my life because they don't we're not aligned and I shouldn't be in this uber I ordered door dashed other day and the driver was like extremely communicative like hey I want to wait there.
我的意思是，最初我本来想问这是不是只是美国的事，因为我们知道技术已经具备了一部分但仍需要监管，那么你认为这是全球性的问题，你不认为在其他地方也会看到完全自主驾驶。我不知道，政府会进行实验，看看它的效果如何。尽管如此，我仍然认为，即使在这样的情况下，它仍然会比让人类驾驶更安全。我总是很惊讶，凌晨两点钟，我要去城市，我会搭乘一个可能喝醉了、吸毒了的人开的Uber，我要把我的生命寄托在我不认识的一个23岁的孩子的手中，这是一个多么疯狂的价值主张啊。当你想到Uber的推出以及它们的成功和我们所有人都在使用的情况下，再想一想你刚才所说的完全陌生（被称为）的人将来接你，我经常想到这点。全国各地都有这样的Uber，我认为他们看待自己的生命和我看待自己的生命一样重要，但他们并没有，我们并没有统一，我不应该搭乘这样的Uber。前几天我点了DoorDash，司机非常通情达理，说：“嘿，我想等在那儿。”
Hey I'm waiting to pick it up and it's funny because like I'm so not used to it I'm starting to get suspicious I'm like is he is something happening what why is he telling me every single step he's making is he like you know fucking with my food but end up being fine nonetheless but yeah I mean it's it's a crazy you know just did you ever suspected might be AI and not even a person. Man now with Chad GPT they're going to hook it up to door dash you're going to get a delivery to you with a drone it's going to be crazy crazy world. Alright so we're just about to rap pop I want to ask you a fun question what have you changed your mind down in the past five years.
嘿，我正在等待取货，有趣的是，由于我不习惯这种情况，我开始怀疑了。我在想他是否在做什么，为什么他要告诉我每一个步骤，他是否在玩弄我的食物。但结束后还是好的。这是一个疯狂的世界，你是否曾怀疑过这可能是人工智能而不是人。现在，有了Chad GPT，他们将其连接到门Dash上，你将会通过无人机收到交付，这将是一个疯狂的世界。
好了，我们快要结束了，我想问你一个有趣的问题：在过去的五年里，你改变了什么想法吗？
Wow that's a good that's a good question I think well one my answer around autonomy would have been very different five years ago I think five years ago I might have been naive enough to think that maybe you know dealers were going to face their demise which I don't think is the case at all. And you know five years ago while there wasn't this you know huge stimulation to try to incent consumers to buy EVs I might have a more of a believer around we were going to get to 100% EV but you know at this point dealers aren't going anywhere I don't think that we're going to get to 100% EVs not in my lifetime and you know we like I said earlier I don't think that the use case for human autonomy at level five is ever going to happen.
哇，这是个好问题。我认为，五年前，我的关于自主权的答案会非常不同。五年前，我可能还天真地认为经销商会面临灭亡，但我现在并不这么认为。五年前，虽然没有现在这么大的刺激来鼓励消费者购买电动汽车，但我可能更相信我们会实现 100% 的电动汽车。但现在，我认为经销商不会消失，而我们不可能在我的有生之年内实现 100% 的电动汽车。正如我之前所说的，我不认为人类自主权等级 5 的使用情况会发生。
Fascinating and Steve can you tell the audience for anyone that wants to learn more about you automotive ventures and you know for everyone that's wondering also full disclosure I am proud and tiny LP and automotive ventures so you know I have some skin in the game but for anyone that's interested can you please tell them where they can learn more about your company.
非常有趣，史蒂夫，你能告诉有兴趣了解你的汽车风险投资的观众们吗？同时，对于每个好奇并且要完整披露的人，我自豪地说我是LP和汽车投资的一份子。但是，如果有任何人感兴趣，请问他们能在哪里了解更多关于你的公司呢？
That's great and we appreciate your small small but very strong partnership the relationship so we you know you can you can find us at automotive ventures calm we are an early stage VC investing in both mobility and automotive technologies around the world and happy to have a conversation at any time you can subscribe to our weekly Intel report that goes out Monday mornings at 7 a.m. that I write over the weekend and happy to get your comments on that that's free and we also have an investment club so when we do find deals we offer those up to our investment club there's no there's no cost to join so you can join and start seeing our our deal flow immediately and then invest in any of our companies with checks as small as $5,000 so happy to have anybody join our investment club as well.
非常好，我们非常感谢你们的小伙伴关系，虽小但很强。我们是Automotive Ventures，一家早期风险投资公司，投资于全球的移动和汽车技术领域，你可以在我们的网站上找到我们。我们随时欢迎交流，我们每周会发送一份周报，每周一上午7点发布，我会在周末撰写，如果有任何意见，请随时告诉我们，这是免费的。我们还有一个投资俱乐部，当我们找到投资机会时，我们会向投资俱乐部成员提供，没有任何加入费用，你可以加入并立即查看我们的投资机会，并以只需5000美元的支票投资于我们的任何一家公司。欢迎任何人加入我们的投资俱乐部。
Steve this was awesome we're going to have to do this more often in the future as the trends change of all you make some more investments I think everyone's going to be super interested to hear what's going on so thanks for coming on really enjoyed it. Well I appreciate everything you're doing for the industry and you're following in a testament to your fulfilling a really big need out there so I appreciate everything you do and the commitment you have to the industry I appreciate that man thank you.
Steve，太棒了！我们将来要经常这样做，随着趋势的变化，你需要再进行一些投资。我认为每个人都会对正在进行的情况感到非常感兴趣，所以感谢你的到来，我真的很喜欢。我很感激你为行业所做的一切，你的跟进是证明你在满足一个非常大的需求，所以我很感激你所做的一切和你对行业的承诺。谢谢你，朋友。