Tesla Increases Spending Plans, S/X Prices, New Model Y Version in Canada
发布时间 2023-04-25 02:59:49 来源
摘要
➤ Disclosures from Tesla’s 10-Q filing
➤ Calendar preview
➤ Tesla increases S/X prices and adds Supercharger incentive
➤ Tesla adds new Model Y configuration in Canada
➤ Reports on Tesla’s EV market share in California
➤ EV market share episode: https://youtu.be/z5EkpVR2Ark
➤ Update on Giga New York
➤ Morgan Stanley survey demonstrates sentiment
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Executive producer Jeremy Cooke
Executive producer Troy Cherasaro
Executive producer Andre/Maria Kent
Executive producer Jessie Chimni
Executive producer Michael Pastrone
Executive producer Richard Del Maestro
Executive producer John Beans
Editing assistance by Jasem Ashkanani
Music by Evan Schaeffer
Image(s) and/or footage used under license from Shutterstock.com
Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives
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Hey everybody, Rob Marrow here. Welcome back to Tesla Daily. Today we are going to be talking about Tesla's 10Q filing, some new disclosures in there on their quarterly results. We've also got new pricing for the Model S and Model X, a new trim for the Model Y in Canada, some reporting on Tesla's market share and more.
大家好，我是Rob Marrow。欢迎回到“特斯拉日报”。今天我们将谈论特斯拉的10Q文件，其中有关于他们季度业绩的新披露。除此之外，我们还将介绍Model S和Model X的新定价，加拿大Model Y的新型号，特斯拉市场份额的报道等等。
Quick look at the stock Tesla starting a week off today down 1.5% to close at $162.55, while the NASDAQ was down 3.10% on the day of the S&P and the Dow, both up on the day. Looking at the calendar for the week, a couple of things to keep an eye on. On Thursday there will be the first release for Q1 GDP. There will be two more, this is the advance release, but our first insight into that report. And then on Friday we get the PCE or Personal Consumption Expenditures report that will be informative around inflation. And then Elon is also doing an interview on Friday, another one, this time on real time with Bill Mahert.
快速浏览特斯拉股票，本周初股价下跌1.5%，收盘价为162.55美元，而纳斯达克指数当天下跌3.10%，标普和道琼斯指数则上涨。本周日程表上有几件事情需要关注。周四，将发布Q1 GDP的首个报告。还有两个报告，这是预先发布，但我们可以从中获得第一个见解。然后在周五，我们将获得个人消费支出报告，这将有助于了解通货膨胀情况。此外，周五还将有一次Elon的采访，这次是在Bill Mahert的实时节目中。
Alright, getting into the news late last week, Tesla updating the prices for the Model S and Model X in the United States and actually not a price cut this time around price increases for the S&X all versions going up by $2500. Taking a look at this enterprise change table, we now see that the Model S starts at $8,740, and the X $10,000 more at $97,490, both $5,000 more expensive than the introductory price following the refresh.
在上周末的新闻中，特斯拉更新了Model S和Model X在美国的价格，这次不是降价，而是将S&X的所有版本的价格上涨了2500美元。根据该公司改变表格的数据，现在我们可以看到Model S的起价为8740美元，而X则比此高1万美元，为97,490美元，都比刷新后的介绍价高出5000美元。
However, alongside these price changes, Tesla is now also offering three years of free supercharging for customers who order and take delivery of an S&X between the price increase and the end of the quarter. So margin wise, that probably nets out strongly in favor of Tesla, the $2500 versus the three years of free supercharging for a customer, case by case basis. But probably the most meaningful piece of this is that it does create a little bit of a sense of urgency for customers to order, to take delivery. Whereas cutting the price, especially when we have seen that be consistent, maybe not as much of a factor in terms of creating that urgency.
然而，除了这些价格变动外，特斯拉现在还为在价格上涨和季末之间下单并交付S&X车型的客户提供三年免费的超级充电服务。在利润方面，与客户每个案件中2500美元相比，这可能会对特斯拉产生强烈的正面影响。但最有意义的可能是它会为客户创造一点紧迫感来下单并交付车辆。虽然降价可能没有创造出这种紧迫感，特别是当我们已经看到它一直保持不变时。
Tesla also playing with this benefit for current Model S and Model X owners that have free supercharging, obviously that can be an impediment to upgrading your vehicle. So Tesla is now offering six years of free unlimited supercharging for those owners who wish to either remove their unlimited free supercharging or trade in their vehicle that has it. So that can be a big perk to give up, but hopefully that'll help push people off the fence they've got to consider as it really worth it for those years that are beyond that six-year time horizon to retain that free supercharging. That's a long time to assume you're going to be operating that same vehicle. So I think this should help pretty significantly for those customers. But obviously that is a fixed pool and you're only going to get so many of those people anyway.
特斯拉对目前拥有免费超级充电功能的Model S和Model X车主也提供了这一福利，显然这可能会阻碍车主的升级。因此，特斯拉现在提供为期六年的免费无限超级充电服务，供那些希望取消不限量免费超级充电服务或者换车的车主使用。虽然这是一个重要的待遇，但是希望这能有助于推动那些仍在犹豫的人们去考虑是否值得在后六年中继续保留免费超级充电。这是一个很长的时间，假设你会一直使用同一辆车。因此，我认为这应该会对那些客户有显著的帮助。但显然这只是一个固定的人群，你只能得到其中的一部分人。
So some pretty interesting changes there for the S&X, a little bit surprising given that we have seen inventory on the S&X continue to remain at somewhat elevated levels. And obviously a little bit tougher delivery quarter, last quarter, how much of that was logistical? We'll probably have a better idea of that at the end of this quarter. But based on the estimated delivery windows and available inventory, the order backlog in the S&X at least in the United States does not appear to be much if any. Internationally, I know there are still people waiting for their orders, have been for a long time, so different situation there. At the end of the day it is all related.
对于S&X车型，发生了一些相当有趣的变化，尽管我们看到S&X的库存仍然处于相对较高的水平，但有点出人意料。显然，上一季度的交货有点困难，这主要是由于后勤方面的原因吗？我们可能在本季度末会更好地了解到这一点。但基于预计的交货窗口和可用库存，至少在美国，S&X的订单积压似乎并不多。在国际上，我知道仍然有人在等待订单，已经等待了很长时间，所以情况有所不同。归根结底，一切都是相关的。
Now the other big change to the design studio for Tesla over in Canada they have added a rear wheel drive model white. This is a shorter range vehicle than the long range all wheel drive. It's listed at $59,990 and the specs for the vehicle match up with the similar configuration that is available in China. With that being the case, not too surprisingly, Reuters today is reporting that these vehicles will be made in Shanghai, imported to Canada. And Reuters says according to a production plan memo that they have seen, there is a target production of nearly 9,000 vehicles of this type for this quarter.
现在，特斯拉加拿大设计工作室的另一个重大变化是他们增加了一款后轮驱动的白色车型。该车续航里程比长续航全轮驱动车型要短。它的价格为59,990美元，车辆规格与中国目前销售的类似配置相匹配。因此，不太意外，路透社今天报道称，这些车辆将在上海生产并进口到加拿大。路透社称，根据他们所看到的生产计划备忘录，本季度这种车型的目标生产量接近9000辆。
Obviously the more of those vehicles that are imported from China into Canada, the fewer that need to be supplied from the United States. That again adds more supply for the US, which will again put pressure on Tesla's pricing. So this could be related to the price changes that we saw in the model Y last week. I think it provides a good example of how Tesla's prices are related even across region. If Tesla had higher demand at higher prices for those vehicles in China, obviously they would sell them there. And conversely, having the outlet for this vehicle supply allows Tesla to maintain a higher margin in China without inventory growing by that amount.
显然，从中国进口更多的车辆到加拿大，就会减少从美国供应的车辆。这又为美国增加了更多的供应，这将再次对特斯拉的定价造成压力。因此，这可能与我们上周在模型Y上看到的价格变化有关。我认为这提供了一个很好的例子，说明特斯拉的价格即使在不同地区也存在关联。如果特斯拉在中国销售这些车辆的价格更高，需求也更高，那么他们显然会在那里销售。相反，有了这些车辆的销售渠道，特斯拉可以在中国保持更高的利润，而不必增加库存。
Adding this lower price configuration for the model Y in Canada also unlocks the model Y for a $5,000 Canadian dollar EV credit, which from how its structure looks to apply to both this cheaper configuration as well as the all wheel drive more expensive version. So should be a couple of big wins there for model Y volume in Canada.
在加拿大推出价格更低的Y型车型配置，还可以解锁5000加元的电动汽车税收抵免。根据其结构，该税收抵免似乎适用于这种更便宜的加速配置以及全轮驱动更昂贵的版本。因此，Y型车在加拿大的销量应该会有几个大赢家。
Alright, next up let's get into Tesla's 10Q for the first quarter. This is their quarterly filing that has a little bit more detail on their quarterly results. Always a number of interesting things to look at in this report, but it can be a little bit lengthy. So we'll hit the highlights on this.
好的，接下来让我们深入了解特斯拉第一季度的10Q报告。这是他们每季度提交的报告，其中包含更详细的季度业绩信息。这份报告中有很多有趣的内容，但篇幅有点长。因此我们将重点关注其中的亮点。
And since we were just talking about regional mix, we'll carry that forward. Tesla does disclose in their 10Qs the regional mix. So revenue breakdown for United States, China and other. In the graph, you can see the United States in blue, China and red and other in green. And then on the top right, I've also got the quarter of a quarter breakdowns for the first quarter as well as year over year. So all markets were up year over year for Tesla in the first quarter, including China, up 5%. And interestingly, despite some of the pricing changes, Tesla did actually grow revenue in China, quarter over quarter up 7%.
既然我们正在谈论地区组合，那么我们将继续谈论这个话题。特斯拉在他们的10Q公报中公开了地区组合。所以，美国、中国和其他地区的收入分配都有披露。在图表中，你可以看到美国是蓝色的，中国是红色的，其他地区是绿色的。然后在右上角，我也列出了第一季度和年度间的季度分配。因此，在第一季度，特斯拉的所有市场年度同比增长，包括中国，增长了5%。有趣的是，尽管进行了一些价格调整，特斯拉在中国的收入实际上同比季度增长了7%。
Obviously deliveries were a record by 12 to 13%, but good to see revenue up as well despite the price cuts. The US and other markets were both down 6 and 7% respectively quarter over quarter, but they had bigger year over year increases at 29 and 34% respectively.
显而易见的是，交付数量增长了12%至13%，但令人高兴的是尽管进行了价格调整，收入也实现了增长。尽管美国和其他市场季度环比下降了6%和7%，但它们的同比增长分别为29%和34%。
Next in the 10Q, one of the things that seemed to get more media attention today was Tesla's capital expenditures guidance. This was slightly updated, I think a little bit overstated in terms of some of the reaction, but Tesla says we currently expect our capital expenditures to be between 7 to 9 billion dollars in 2023 and in each of the following two fiscal years. If we look back to last quarter, the 10K filing for Q4, Tesla said in that filing they expected 2023 to be between 6 and 8 billion, and then the following two years also, 7 and 9 billion. So the only change here is a $1 billion increase for both the high and low ends of the 2023 range.
在接下来的第十份季报中，特斯拉资本支出的指引似乎更多地引起媒体的关注。我认为有些反应略微夸大了，但特斯拉表示，我们目前预计在2023年和随后两个财政年度的资本支出将在70亿到90亿美元之间。回顾上一季度，特斯拉在Q4的10K申报中表示，他们预计2023年的资本支出将在60亿至80亿之间，随后两年也是如此，都为70亿至90亿。因此，唯一的变化是2023年范围的高低端都增加了10亿美元。
Not too surprising considering Tesla spent over $2 billion already in the first quarter, but personally, as we talked about more on Thursday, I am totally fine and pleased to see that Tesla continues to spend aggressively on those future growth plans.
考虑到特斯拉在第一季度已经花费超过20亿美元，这并不太令人惊讶。但就我个人而言，正如我们周四所谈论的，我非常满意并愿意看到特斯拉继续积极地投资于未来的增长计划。
Next, one of the things I had my eye out for in this filing particularly was what Tesla had to say about the inflation reduction act. They didn't really talk about that on the earnings call this time around, so we don't know how that impacted the financials. We do get more detail on that in the filing. Tesla notes there are multiple incentives in the IRA to promote clean energy and vehicles etc, and that there is also a new corporate alternative minimum tax of 15% continuing on to say that some of these measures are expected to materially affect our consolidated financial statements. They say for the first quarter, the impact was primarily a reduction of Tesla's material costs.
接下来，我在这份文件中特别关注的一件事是特斯拉对通胀减缓法案的看法。他们在这次财报电话会议上并没有谈论这个问题，所以我们不知道它对财务状况的影响。但是在文件中，我们能获得更多细节。特斯拉指出，通胀减缓法案中有多个推动清洁能源和交通工具发展的激励措施，还有一个新的企业替代最低税率为15%，他们还表示，这些措施中的一些对我们的合并财务报表有物质影响。他们说，对于第一季度，这些措施主要减少了特斯拉的材料成本。
This is also brought up when Tesla talks about their automotive margins. They say that the average cost of their vehicles increased year-over-year due to increased pricing of raw materials, manufacturing, logistics and warranty costs. So that's their explanation of the increase and cost of goods sold that happened year-over-year. But then they say the costs were partially offset by manufacturing credits earned as a part of the IRA during the three months ended March 31st.
特斯拉谈论到他们汽车的利润率时，也提到了这个问题。他们称，由于原材料、制造、物流和保修成本的增加，车辆的平均成本已经年复一年地增加了。这就是他们解释去年同期销售成本增加的原因。但是，他们接着表示，制造积分在截至3月31日的三个月内获得，一定程度上抵消了这些成本。
With this, we seem to now have an answer for how Tesla will be accounting for these manufacturing credits, which remember a separate from the consumer-facing credits. And it sounds like those will just be reducing what Tesla reports ask costs of goods sold. And unfortunately, that won't give us really much insight into how significant those credits are. Tesla CFOs at Kirkorn had previously said they expect that to be on the order of $150-$250 million per quarter and growing as the year continues. So in terms of margin, that's probably a benefit of just under 1% point, maybe 80 basis points or so. But that did benefit Tesla this quarter's margins would have been lower without those credits.
现在我们似乎已经知道特斯拉将如何计算制造补贴，需要记住的是这些补贴与面向消费者的补贴是不同的。据了解，制造补贴将仅仅减少特斯拉的销货成本。不幸的是，这并不能让我们充分了解这些补贴的重要性。特斯拉首席财务官柯克恩此前曾表示，他们预计每个季度这些补贴将达到1.5亿美元至2.5亿美元，并随着年份的推移不断增加。因此，在利润方面，这可能是不到1%点的收益，可能是80个基点左右。但没有这些补贴，这个季度的利润率会更低。
As for the other business lines, Tesla says that for energy, they did have deferred revenue this quarter that was $770 million. That's actually less than it was last quarter at 863, so it looks like they recognized some deferred revenue, probably just based on the billing sequence for energy storage projects. So we've talked about it before, but because of that, revenue for energy storage can be a little bit of a black box at times.
至于其他业务线，特斯拉表示，能源方面本季度有770万美元的递延收入。这实际上比上个季度的863万美元更少，因此看起来他们可能已经承认了一些递延收入，可能仅仅是基于能源储存项目的计费顺序。所以我们之前已经谈论过，能源储存的收入有时候可能是一个黑盒子。
Couple of other details on energy in general, Tesla says that energy generation and storage revenue grew primarily due to the increase in deployments of MegaPak, higher solar and cash loan deployments at a higher average selling price, as well as an increase in deployments of Powerwall at higher average selling prices year over year. So good to see Powerwall also increasing, but probably at this point starting to be dwarfed by MegaPak's volume.
总的来说，特斯拉在能源领域的发电和储存收益主要是因为Megapak的部署增加、太阳能发电和现金贷款的增加和平均销售价格的提高，以及Powerwall在过去一年中平均销售价格的提高而增加。很高兴看到Powerwall也在增加，但可能此时的增长已经被MegaPak的数量所超越。
As far as energy margins, which did increase significantly year over year, Tesla noted that they benefited there from a higher mix of energy storage, which they say operated at a higher gross margin than energy generation. On services and other, Tesla talked about how they have benefited as they have for the last few quarters from an increase in revenue from used vehicle sales.
就能源利润而言，特斯拉指出他们的能源存储比能源发电带来更高毛利润，因此去年他们的能源利润有了显著增长。在服务和其他方面，特斯拉表示使用车辆销售的增加为他们带来了收入上的收益，这种好处在过去几个季度中也一直存在。
Last couple of things on the 10 Q deferred revenue is always interesting to look at as there's a big number there for FSD, and also some things related to supercharging over their updates, etc. But that balance grew from a $2.9 billion to just over $3 billion, and Tesla now says they expect to recognize $679 million of that in the next 12 months, which is up from $639 million last quarter. And then finally, there is a disclosure in the 10 Q that Tesla has received requests from the Department of Justice for documents related to Tesla's autopilot and FSD features. They say that to their knowledge, no government agency in any ongoing investigation has found any wrongdoing from Tesla. But the larger point that I want to make here is that this is not a new disclosure from Tesla, this same paragraph verbatim exists in the 10 K. We've already talked about this before.
10Q的最后两件事情总是很有趣的，因为FSD那里有一大笔钱，还有一些与更新等超级充电相关的事情。但是该项余额从29亿美元增长到了略微超过30亿美元，特斯拉现在表示他们预计在未来12个月内将承认这些中的6.79亿美元，这比上季度的6.39亿美元更高。最后，在10Q中有一项披露，特斯拉收到了司法部关于特斯拉自动驾驶和FSD功能的文档请求。他们表示，在他们所知道的任何正在进行的调查中，没有政府机构发现特斯拉有任何不当行为。但我想在这里要强调的更重要的一点是，这并不是特斯拉的新披露，这同样的段落在10K中一字不差地存在。
Just helpful as people like to look through those disclosures and write new articles about them every time. All right, moving on from the 10 Q, we've got some reporting on Tesla's market share for California. However, it is for EV market share. If we look at the numbers here, we can see that Tesla's got a 60% share of BEVs in the first quarter with about 57,000 vehicles sold. Now, obviously 60% market share in any market is a great number, but because that is down a little bit from Tesla's market share in 2022, which was 73%, of course, there is a lot of reporting on that.
人们喜欢查阅这些披露文件，并且经常为此撰写新文章。好的，接下来要谈的是特斯拉在加利福尼亚的市场份额报告，不过这是针对电动汽车市场份额的。如果我们看一下这里的数字，我们会发现特斯拉在第一季度BEV（电动车）市场份额达到了60%，销售了约57,000辆车。现在，显然在任何市场占据60%的市场份额都是一个很好的数字，但由于这比特斯拉在2022年的市场份额73%有所下降，因此有很多报道。
But again, just reiterating this is EV market share only, which is really not a very good measure of much of anything, especially when there is a market that is so heavily dominated by one player like Tesla has in California. Over two years ago, on the March 3rd 2021 episode of Tesla Daily, I did an episode on why this would not be a very good metric to look at and why we'd probably see stuff like this going forward for many years. It's almost a mathematical impossibility not to, so I'll put the example that we walk through.
然而，再次强调这只是电动汽车市场份额，这实际上并不是一个很好的衡量标准，特别是当像特斯拉在加利福尼亚一样的市场占有率如此之高的时候。两年多前，在2021年3月3日的《特斯拉日报》节目中，我曾介绍了为什么这不是一个很好的衡量标准，并且为什么我们未来几年可能会看到类似的情况。这几乎是不可能的数学问题，所以我将举个例子。
I won't go through everything here. You can just watch that episode, which I'll link in the description. But basically to retain those high market shares, Tesla would have to grow capacity at that same market share ratio versus everyone else. So if you're at 80% market share, you have to grow your capacity four times. Everyone else is combined capacity growth. Hopefully, I don't have to spend too much time explaining why that's pretty much impossible. And that's why car market share overall is much more important because as these others add capacity for EVs, well, they're probably just siphoning off sales from their ice vehicle business line.
我不会在这里详细解释所有内容。您可以观看该剧集，我将在描述中提供链接。但基本上，为保持这些高市场份额，特斯拉必须以与其他所有人相同的市场份额比率增加产能。因此，如果您拥有80％的市场份额，则必须将产能增加四倍。其他人的合并容量增长。希望我不必花太多时间解释为什么这几乎是不可能的。这就是为什么车市的市场份额是更重要的，因为随着这些其他人增加电动汽车产能，他们可能只是从其油燃汽车业务线中分流销售。
Tesla is not looking for 60% forever. They're looking for 20-25% of the vehicle market. Yep, obviously market share for EVs, probably going to decline. All right, last couple of things we've got a somewhat rare update on Tesla's factory in New York. Of course, they have things like supercharger production there, solar production, they've got an autopilot labeling team. But according to new filings, Tesla is looking to spend three-and-a-half million dollars to build a 570 space parking lot near the facility. So hopefully and probably a sign of Tesla continuing to expand operations there in New York.
特斯拉并非永远追求60％的市场份额。他们要争取20-25％的汽车市场。很明显，电动车的市场份额可能会下降。好的，最后我们得到了有关特斯拉在纽约工厂的一些罕见更新。当然，他们在那里进行了超级充电器和太阳能生产，还有一个自动驾驶标注团队。但根据最新的文件，特斯拉计划花费350万美元在设施附近建造一个570个停车位的停车场。因此，这可能是特斯拉在纽约继续扩大业务的迹象。
Last item then, kind of an interesting note from Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley today, they have done a couple of polls of some of their clients regarding the current sentiment around Tesla stock. Jonas says, quote, Tesla's Q1 earnings didn't so much reignite the bull bear debate, but seemed to shift sentiment far more to the one side in negative. Since earnings were released, we have fielded questions about Tesla's pricing strategy, asking whether we are witnessing a strategic masterstroke or a potential blunder that threatens Tesla's long-term profitability and brand strength.
最后一项是摩根士丹利的Adam Jonas今天发布的一个有趣的观察，他们进行了一些对客户的调查，了解针对特斯拉股票的当前情绪。Jonas说：“特斯拉第一季度的收益并没有点燃偏多和偏空的讨论，但似乎将情绪更多地转向了负面。” 自收益发布以来，我们已经接到了关于特斯拉定价策略的问题，询问我们是否正在见证一次战略杰作或潜在的错误，这可能威胁到特斯拉的长期盈利能力和品牌实力。
This past Thursday, we hosted a bull bear launch in New York City. At the start of the launch, we asked the 36 attendees via show of hands who believe Tesla's share price would outperform the stock market over the next six months, not a single hand went up, it should have been called a bear launch.
上个周四，我们在纽约市举办了一次牛熊市发布活动。在发布活动开始时，我们通过举手的方式询问了36名参与者，有多少人认为特斯拉的股价会在未来六个月内表现超越股票市场，然而没有一只手举起来，这应该被称为熊市发布。
Additionally, Jonas said they sent an email survey out on Friday and 44 people had responded. 71% of those said that Tesla would underperform the next six months. So this is exactly what I said at the beginning of Thursday's episode. Tesla is not communicating things that are going to make Wall Street very excited for that six-month time period, which is predominantly the focus.
另外，乔纳斯说他们在星期五发送了一封电子邮件调查，有44人回复了。其中71％的人表示，特斯拉未来6个月表现将不理想。这正是我在上周四的节目开头所说的。特斯拉没有传达出让华尔街为这六个月时间段感到兴奋的信息，而这是主要的关注焦点。
So it could be a bumpy time for the stock with that sort of sentiment, overwhelmingly prevailing, but hopefully that can mean that the bar is relatively low for Tesla for that period of time.
因此，在这种普遍存在的情绪下，该股票可能会经历起伏不定的时期，但希望这意味着在那段时间内，特斯拉的标准相对较低。
All right, that is where we wrap it up for today then. As always, thank you for listening, make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications, also find me on Twitter at Tesla Podcast, and we'll see you tomorrow for the Tuesday April 25th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.
好的，我们今天就到这里结束吧。像往常一样，感谢你的收听，请确保你已经订阅并开启了通知，还可以在Twitter上找到我，账号是“特斯拉播客”，明天我们会在4月25日星期二的特斯拉日报节目中再见。谢谢。