GM04: Global Macro from a High Level ft. Larry McDonald
发布时间 2020-07-24 16:15:00 来源
摘要
Today we are very lucky to welcome Larry McDonald as our guest. Larry is the founder of the Bear Traps report, and has extensive experience in consulting and investment banking. His bestselling book “A colossal failure of common sense”, described his time as a Vice President at Lehman brothers where Larry had a ringside view of the last financial crisis. Needless to say this gives him an interesting perspective on the current state of the global markets. Our very enjoyable conversation covered a wide range of topics from high level macro, across Silver and Copper, and down to individual stocks like Tesla.
Topics Discussed in this Episode
Risk Indicators
Unemployment
Modern Monetary Theory
US Dollar
"At the end of the day, so the dollar ripped 82 to 104 and that moved crushed middle American jobs and really, I think it partially cost Hillary Clinton the election… I think the Trump camp has learned that you really can't have a runaway dollar heading towards an election. You really want that dollar down and that will help whatever is left of middle America.
Inequality
Inflation
“The inflation camp, every one of them is pegging it on twelve to eighteen months from now. Whereas, the deflation camp is pretty high conviction that we're going to have a problem near-term. ”
Gold and Silver
2020 Election
"I just don't think that the White House really wants to have a problem with China in the last two, three months before the election."
Tesla
" Tesla is at close to three hundred (billion), so Tesla would come in at anywhere between twelve and ten in terms of the S&P 500. So it would come in, basically, in the top twelve companies which has never happened before."
Warren Buffet
Fed balance sheet
Links
Catch up with Larry McDonald and learn more about his work:
The Bear Traps Report
Follow Niels, Moritz, & Rob on Twitter:
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
Moritz Seibert
Rob Carver
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