Norges Bank Investment Management - Marc Andreessen | Investment Conference 2024 | Norges Bank Investment Management
发布时间:2024-04-25 18:30:14
原节目
马克讨论了当前的经济状况、人工智能的前景与挑战、西方与中国之间的地缘政治竞争,以及美国和欧洲活力的重要性。他强调,他的公司通过技术颠覆获利,支持挑战现有企业或创造新市场的初创公司。他承认存在一个更广泛的宏观问题,即平衡资本和生产性投资机会,并将科技和风险投资视为解决方案中一个虽小但重要的部分。
马克认为,人工智能,特别是生成式人工智能,代表着一个类似于微处理器的重要新平台,为重塑行业和创建新公司提供了广阔的机会。他将人工智能的突破视为“80 年的通宵成功”,并引用 2022 年 ChatGPT 的出现作为技术从无法工作到工作得非常出色的转折点。他强调了当前整个科技生态系统争相整合人工智能的情况,导致芯片短缺、数据中心创新、电力消耗挑战以及软件公司构建基础模型之间的竞争。他讨论了关于少数占主导地位的人工智能模型与数千个在各种设备上定制的模型之间的争论,并大力投资于后一种观点。
谈话转向人工智能的地缘政治影响,马克强烈主张西方赢得与中国的人工智能竞赛。他将此与冷战相提并论,强调技术、经济和军事优势对于维护西方民主的必要性。他批评欧盟对人工智能的监管方式过于谨慎和内向,并将其与地缘政治竞争的紧迫性形成对比。他承认西方分散的、市场驱动的体系以及中国集中化的、指令控制的体系的优缺点。他告诫不要效仿对方的模式,敦促西方利用其在创新和创业方面的优势。
马克详细阐述了“美国活力”的概念,他认为过去 50 年,美国和欧洲都失去了对技术和经济进步的信心。他观察到工业界与政府之间的关系紧张,以及日益增长的规避风险的心态。他提倡将更多的技术能量注入国防、能源、法律、教育和医疗保健等领域,以刺激增长和机会。
关于欧洲的活力,马克指出,过去 30 年,欧洲在全球科技公司排名中的地位有所下降,他将其归因于对监管和规避风险的优先考虑,而非创新。他指出,能源领域就是一个典型的例子,自愿停止能源开发导致与俄罗斯的地缘政治紧张。他认为这是一个具有后果的社会选择,敦促选民和领导人挺身而出,扭转当前的局面。
谈到作为一名风险投资家的责任,马克宣称他的公司坚定不移地支持美国和西方。他强调了他们长期以来不投资中国的政策,并承认科技参与国家安全所面临的挑战和争议。他认为俄罗斯-乌克兰战争以及随后的冲突凸显了国家安全的重要性,以及西方民主国家需要武装和做好准备。
最后,在回答关于如何成为更好的投资者的问题时,马克强调了世界上增长机会的有限性,以及识别和投资于推动这种增长的地区和人们的重要性。他还敦促投资者利用他们的影响力,倡导将增长作为一种积极的社会目标。
Mark discusses the current state of the economy, the promise and challenges of AI, the geopolitical competition between the West and China, and the importance of American and European dynamism. He emphasizes that his firm profits from technological disruption, backing startups challenging established players or creating new markets. He acknowledges a broader macro issue of balancing capital and productive investment opportunities, seeing tech and venture capital as a small but important piece of the solution.
Mark believes that AI, particularly generative AI, represents a significant new platform akin to the microprocessor, offering vast opportunities to reinvent industries and create new companies. He views the AI breakthrough as an "80-year overnight success," citing the 2022 ChatGPT moment as the point where the technology leaped from not working to working incredibly well. He highlights the current scramble across the tech ecosystem to integrate AI, leading to chip shortages, data center innovation, power consumption challenges, and competition among software companies building foundation models. He discusses the debate between a few dominant AI models versus thousands of customized models on various devices, investing heavily in the latter thesis.
The conversation pivots to the geopolitical implications of AI, with Mark strongly advocating for the West to win the AI race against China. He draws parallels to the Cold War, emphasizing the need for technological, economic, and military superiority to safeguard Western democracy. He criticizes the EU's approach to AI regulation as overly cautious and inward-looking, contrasting it with the urgency of geopolitical competition. He acknowledges the strengths and weaknesses of both the West's decentralized, market-driven system and China's centralized, command-and-control system. He cautions against emulating the other side's model, urging the West to leverage its advantages in innovation and entrepreneurship.
Mark elaborates on the concept of American Dynamism, arguing that both the US and Europe have lost faith in technological and economic progress over the past 50 years. He observes a strained relationship between industry and government and a growing risk aversion. He advocates for injecting more technological energy into sectors like defense, energy, law, education, and healthcare to stimulate growth and opportunity.
Regarding Europe's dynamism, Mark notes its decline in global tech company rankings over the past 30 years, attributing it to a prioritization of regulation and risk aversion over innovation. He points to the energy sector as a prime example, with its voluntary stand-down of energy development leading to geopolitical stresses with Russia. He sees this as a societal choice with consequences, urging voters and leaders to step up and reverse the current trajectory.
Discussing his responsibility as a venture capitalist, Mark declares his firm's unwavering support for the United States and the West. He highlights their long-standing policy of not investing in China, acknowledging the challenges and controversies surrounding tech's involvement in national security. He believes the Russia-Ukraine war and subsequent conflicts have highlighted the importance of national security and the need for Western democracies to be armed and prepared.
Finally, in response to a question about becoming better investors, Mark emphasizes the limited opportunities for growth in the world and the importance of identifying and investing in the places and people driving that growth. He also urges investors to use their influence to advocate for growth as a positive societal goal.