以下翻译： 本次讨论聚焦于日益增长的自动化浪潮下，失业和工资不稳定的紧迫问题，并探讨潜在的政策应对及其政治可行性。它深入探讨了四个主要领域：全民基本收入（UBI）、最低工资、劳动所得税抵免（EITC）和过渡援助计划。 讨论首先阐述了自动化加速的步伐，并列举了诸如自动驾驶卡车和机器人操作的比萨厨房等例子，引发了对大规模失业的担忧。作者马丁·福特认为，这波自动化浪潮不仅会影响蓝领工作，还会影响新闻、医学和金融等白领职业。 这就提出了一个根本问题：数百万将被取代的工人将会怎样？ 讨论的第一个提出的解决方案是全民基本收入（UBI），这是一个所有公民无论其就业状况如何，都能定期收到无条件现金支付的概念。 政治哲学家菲利普·范·帕里斯等支持者认为，这是一种基本权利，是自由社会的地板而非安全网。 美国总统候选人杨安泽（Andrew Yang）提倡为每位美国成年人每月提供 1,000 美元的“自由红利”，认为这对于解决自动化造成的经济混乱是必要的。 他将此与阿拉斯加州的石油红利进行了比较，展示了直接向公民分配资源的成功案例。 UBI 可以通过降低离职成本来增加工人的议价能力，使他们能够要求雇主提供更好的待遇。 然而，UBI 面临着巨大的挑战，特别是关于其政治可行性。 社会上存在着强烈的“工作伦理”，导致人们对不工作就领取金钱的想法产生抵触情绪。 一些保守派人士，如查尔斯·默里，支持 UBI，但形式截然不同：作为对包括社会保障和医疗保险在内的整个现有福利制度的替代。 这种保守派愿景旨在简化社会项目，并通过允许个人保留其 UBI 付款直到达到某个收入门槛来激励工作。 然而，这项提案将面临来自诸如 AARP（美国退休人员协会） 和那些从现有社会项目中受益的人的强烈反对。 瑞士就UBI举行了全民公投，但以失败告终，芬兰的一项实验也在几年后被放弃。 讨论随后转向提高最低工资的政治压力。 将最低工资提高到 15 美元的呼声已在加利福尼亚州和纽约州等地取得成功。 然而，也存在一些缺点，包括消费者价格上涨的潜力，以及企业要么实现自动化，要么搬迁到劳动力成本较低的地区而导致失业的风险。 此外，最低工资很难根据通货膨胀进行调整，并且可能面临政治阻力。 一个州最低工资的上涨可能会激励各州之间展开逐底竞争。 考虑的第三个解决方案是劳动所得税抵免（EITC），这是一种直接支付给低收入工人的工资补贴。 它得到了两党支持，并且随着时间的推移得到了显著扩展，现在使数百万家庭受益。 讨论认为这是近期向下分配的最大增长之一。 EITC 在各州之间创造了一种“逐顶竞争”的激励，因为企业被更慷慨的 EITC 项目吸引到各州，从而有效地降低了它们的劳动力成本。 由于款项直接支付给工人，因此与公司激励措施相伴的腐败或寻租的机会较小。 最后，讨论考察了过渡援助计划的历史和潜力，特别是贸易调整援助（TAA）。 TAA 最初是为了获得工会对自由贸易协定的支持而构思的，旨在为因贸易而流离失所的工人提供强有力的失业保险、搬迁援助和免费再培训。 然而，由于行政问题和不断变化的政治优先事项，TAA 从未实现其最初的承诺。 讨论认为，这种想法已在一些国家兴起，并且在技术性失业的时代，这些计划需要重新考虑，将其作为普遍调整援助，提供给任何因贸易或技术而失去工作的人。 通过普遍化，可能更容易维持一个支持它的联盟。 讨论最后对政治动荡的根本原因进行了冷静的反思，特别是唐纳德·特朗普的当选，认为这是因为忽视了选民的经济焦虑和绝望。 讨论敦促采取更积极的政策应对措施，以应对失业和工资不稳定的挑战。

This discussion focuses on the pressing issue of unemployment and wage insecurity in the face of increasing automation, exploring potential policy responses and their political feasibility. It delves into four main areas: Universal Basic Income (UBI), minimum wages, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), and transitional assistance programs. The discussion begins by illustrating the accelerating pace of automation, citing examples such as self-driving trucks and robot-operated pizza kitchens, leading to concerns about massive job displacement. The author Martin Ford argues that this wave of automation will impact not only blue-collar jobs but also white-collar professions like journalism, medicine, and finance. This raises the fundamental question of what will happen to the millions of workers who will be displaced. The first proposed solution discussed is Universal Basic Income (UBI), a concept where all citizens receive a regular, unconditional cash payment regardless of their employment status. Proponents, like political philosopher Philippe von Perese, see it as a fundamental right, a floor rather than a safety net in a free society. Andrew Yang, a US presidential candidate, advocates for a "Freedom Dividend" of $1,000 per month for every American adult, arguing that it is necessary to address the economic disruption caused by automation. He draws a parallel to Alaska's petroleum dividend, showcasing a successful example of distributing resources directly to citizens. UBI could increase worker bargaining power by lowering exit costs from jobs, enabling them to demand better treatment from employers. However, UBI faces significant challenges, particularly concerning its political viability. There's a strong "work ethic" in society, leading to resistance against the idea of receiving money without working. Some conservatives, like Charles Murray, support UBI, but in a drastically different form: as a replacement for the entire existing welfare state, including Social Security and Medicare. This conservative vision aims to streamline social programs and incentivize work by allowing individuals to keep their UBI payments until they reach a certain income threshold. However, this proposal would face fierce opposition from groups like the AARP and those who benefit from existing social programs. Switzerland had a referendum on UBI which failed and in Finland an experiment was abandoned after a few years. The discussion then shifts to the political pressure to raise minimum wages. The push for a $15 minimum wage has seen success in states like California and New York. However, there are drawbacks, including the potential for increased prices for consumers and the risk of job losses as businesses either automate or relocate to areas with lower labor costs. Furthermore, minimum wages are hard to adjust for inflation, and may face political push-back. The increasing minimum wages in one state can incentive a race to the bottom between the different states. The third solution considered is the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), a wage subsidy paid directly to low-income workers. It has received bipartisan support and has been significantly expanded over time, now benefiting millions of families. The discussion sees it as one of the biggest recent increase in downward distribution. The EITC creates an incentive for a "race to the top" among states, as businesses are drawn to states with more generous EITC programs, effectively reducing their labor costs. Since payments go directly to workers, there is less chance of corruption or rent-seeking that can accompany incentives for firms. Finally, the discussion examines the history and potential of transitional assistance programs, specifically trade adjustment assistance (TAA). Initially conceived to gain union support for free trade agreements, TAA aimed to provide robust unemployment insurance, relocation assistance, and free retraining for workers displaced by trade. However, due to administrative problems and shifting political priorities, TAA has never achieved its initial promise. The discussion argues that this idea has taken off in some countries, and that in an era of technological job displacement, these programs need to be rethought as universal adjustment assistance, available to anyone whose job is lost due to trade or technology. By universalizing it, it may be easier to sustain a coalition for it. The discussion concludes with a sobering reflection on the underlying causes of political upheaval, particularly the election of Donald Trump, arguing that it was a result of ignoring the economic anxieties and desperation of voters. The discussion urges for more proactive policy responses to address the challenges of unemployment and wage insecurity.