Power and Politics in Today’s World - YouTube - Lecture 20: Fallout: The Housing Crisis and its Aftermath
发布时间:2019-12-04 19:26:25
原节目
以下是讲座的摘要,重点介绍其主要观点和论证:
该讲座探讨了2008年的住房危机及其后果,将其定义为一场源于历史不公正和善意但最终存在缺陷的政策的“错误悲剧”。 它首先强调克林顿总统1995年提出的增加房屋拥有率的承诺,强调两党致力于扩大“美国梦”。 核心论点是,这场危机不仅仅是一次金融事件,也是数十年来为消除住房方面的种族不平等所做努力的最终结果,并导致了意想不到的后果。
该讲座深入探讨了住房歧视的历史,将“硬性种族隔离”(通过限制性契约和红线划分进行明确的种族隔离)与“软性种族隔离”(由自愿选择和微妙的偏见驱动的市场化隔离)进行了对比。 红线划分,即在少数族裔社区拒绝贷款的做法,被认为是硬性种族隔离的一个关键要素,尽管在20世纪60年代已被取缔,但它仍在微妙地影响着住房市场。 谢林的“多边形寓言”被用来说明,即使是居住在相似人群中的微小偏好也可能导致整个社区的隔离。
讲座确定了导致次贷危机的四个关键因素:扩大房屋拥有率的政治议程、次贷的证券化、银行的放松管制以及持续存在的种族偏见。 政府为促进少数族裔的房屋拥有率而采取的措施,对房利美和房地美投资次级市场的压力,以及低首付抵押贷款的创建,都扭曲了市场。 虽然这些努力旨在解决历史不公正问题,但它们无意中刺激了高风险的贷款行为。
证券化,即将抵押贷款打包并作为证券出售的做法,创造了一个贷款机构几乎没有动力进行尽职调查的系统。 演讲者解释说,缺乏“切身利益”导致了宽松的贷款标准和虚高的评估。 放松对银行的监管的无情推动加剧了这个问题,使它们能够从事风险更高的活动。
该讲座随后考察了危机的影响,强调了对非裔美国人和拉丁裔社区的巨大影响。 经济学家认为,政府的应对措施过于侧重于救助银行,而不是帮助房主。 这种不愿减记抵押贷款债务的做法,尽管它可能惠及包括银行在内的所有人,但在政治上是站不住脚的,因为存在“道德风险”的看法——人们认为这将奖励不负责任的行为。
演讲者接着解释说,即使减记债务是一个理想的经济决策,在政治上也会是一场灾难。 由于“本地比较”的概念,存在着大量的公众不满情绪。 人们的普遍情绪是,邻居们对他们可能被排除在救助计划之外的想法感到不满。 这种想法,再加上经济学家们提出的“沉没成本谬误”,使得领导者们无法解决手头的问题。
演讲者强调,这种情况已经造成了持久的损害,非裔美国人和拉丁裔社区的止赎率和房屋净值损失率明显更高。 因此,讲座的结论是,旨在解决不平等的住房危机最终加剧了不平等。 这是多个复合因素共同作用的结果,产生了长期的影响。 演讲者最后提出了一个问题:考虑到房屋所有权对这些社区的财富创造造成了如此大的破坏,那么房屋所有权的价值和重要性是什么?
Here's a summary of the lecture, focusing on the main points and arguments presented:
The lecture explores the housing crisis of 2008 and its aftermath, framing it as a "tragedy of errors" rooted in historical injustices and well-intentioned but ultimately flawed policies. It begins by highlighting President Clinton's 1995 pledge to increase homeownership, emphasizing the bipartisan commitment to expanding the "American dream." The core argument is that the crisis was not solely a financial event but also a culmination of decades of efforts to combat racial inequality in housing, leading to unintended consequences.
The lecture delves into the history of housing discrimination, contrasting "hard apartheid" (explicit racial segregation through restrictive covenants and redlining) with "soft apartheid" (market-based segregation driven by voluntary choices and subtle biases). Redlining, the practice of denying loans in minority neighborhoods, is discussed as a key element of hard apartheid, which, although outlawed in the 1960s, continues to subtly affect housing markets. Schelling's "parable of the polygons" is used to illustrate how even small preferences for living among similar people can lead to complete neighborhood segregation.
The lecture identifies four key factors contributing to the subprime mortgage crisis: the political agenda of expanding homeownership, the securitization of subprime mortgages, the deregulation of banks, and persistent racial biases. Government initiatives to promote homeownership among minorities, pressure on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to invest in subprime markets, and the creation of low down payment mortgages distorted the market. While these efforts aimed to address historical injustices, they inadvertently incentivized risky lending practices.
Securitization, the practice of bundling and selling mortgages as securities, created a system where lenders had little incentive to conduct due diligence. The speaker explains that the lack of "skin in the game" led to lax lending standards and inflated appraisals. The relentless drive to deregulate banks compounded the problem, enabling them to engage in riskier activities.
The lecture then examines the aftermath of the crisis, highlighting the disproportionate impact on African-American and Latino communities. Economists argued that the government's response focused too heavily on bailing out banks rather than assisting homeowners. This reluctance to write down mortgage debt, despite it potentially benefiting everyone, including banks, was politically untenable due to the perception of "moral hazard"—the belief that it would reward irresponsible behavior.
The lecturer then goes on to explain how even if it would have been the ideal economic decision, it would have been a political catastrophe to write down the debts. There was significant public resentment due to the notion of "local comparison." The sentiment was that neighbors were upset at the idea that they could be left out of a bailout. This idea, coupled with economist-fueled "sunk cost fallacy", made it impossible for leaders to solve the problem at hand.
The speaker highlights how the situation has led to lasting damage, with African-American and Latino communities experiencing significantly higher rates of foreclosure and loss of home equity. As a result, the lecture concludes that the housing crisis, intended to address inequality, ultimately exacerbated it. It is the result of multiple compounding factors that have had long lasting repercussions. The presenter ends by posing the question of the value and importance of homeownership, given how destructive it has been for wealth creation in these communities.