Dwarkesh Podcast - Sarah Paine Episode 2: Why Japan Lost (Lecture & Interview)
发布时间:2025-01-23 16:43:16
原节目
好的,以下是内容的中文翻译:
莎拉,来自海军战争学院,首先声明她所提出的观点仅代表她个人,不代表美国政府或海军战争学院的立场。
她批评美国在分析国际冲突时,倾向于只关注美国自身的行动,称之为“半场网球”。她将此与足球进行对比,在足球分析中,分析师会研究双方的队伍和球员。她强调,伊拉克战争和珍珠港事件都是因为缺乏对对手视角的理解而导致重大误判的例子。
她援引孙子和克劳塞维茨的理论,强调需要进行“全面评估”,即考虑所有相关方的政治、军事、地理、经济和文化因素。她认为文化对于理解对手的行为至关重要,并警告不要进行“镜像思维”,即假设对手会像自己一样行事。
为了说明这一点,她深入探讨了20世纪30年代和40年代的日本文化,借鉴了“武士道”文学和日本理论家的观点。她以新渡户稻造为文化桥梁,将武士道定义为一种受到佛教、神道教和儒家思想影响的武士阶层的骑士精神准则。
从佛教来看,日本人的宿命论、对死亡的接受,以及对如何度过一生而非取得何种成就的重视,都是普遍存在的。神道教则贡献了极端的爱国主义和对天皇的崇敬。儒家思想通过相互关联的社会义务和等级制度来规范社会。
她探讨了山本常朝的《叶隐》,强调了武士对死亡、荣誉和效忠领主的关注,突出了为避免耻辱而自杀的重要性。她解释说,作战上的成功等同于战略上的成功,导致忽视了宏大的战略。一个普遍的主题是“死地”,即生存的唯一方法是更加努力地战斗,而不是投降。
另一个被探讨的特征是意志力,对毅力和奉献精神的强调贬低了战略的重要性。她还提到了平重资,突出了在群体背景下忠诚、责任和勇敢的价值观。
此外,莎拉还讨论了奇袭和先发制人在日本战争中的重要性,这导致日本在1931年入侵整个满洲,并在1937年沿海岸线一路南下到长江流域,但最终因资源枯竭而失败。她以宫本武藏为例,讨论了作战偏好,如对风险的容忍度低、奇袭和先发制人。
她讨论了导致战争走向恶化的几个疏忽,包括日本忽视后勤、设备生产不足以及忽视保护其领土的海上交通线。她指出,海军专注于舰队决战,而不是护航任务。这导致前线士兵面临严重的食物短缺问题。
莎拉随后考察了将忠诚和责任置于战略思维之上的后果。她讨论了部门间的竞争,特别是陆军和海军之间的竞争,如何阻碍了日本的战争努力,并列举了协调失败和信息共享失败的例子。对东京的轰炸打破了僵局,导致了信仰的丧失。最终,原子弹的投放以及苏联向满洲派兵,最终打破了僵局。
最后,莎拉对美国的外交政策提出了批评,认为如果能更好地理解20世纪30年代日本的动机,或许可以避免战争。虽然她对日本持批评态度,但她强调了理解对方逻辑的重要性,以便做出更明智的选择。
Sure, here is a summary of the transcript:
Sarah, from the Naval War College, gives a disclaimer, expressing that the ideas she presents are her own and do not represent the views of the U.S. government or the Naval War College.
She criticizes the American tendency to focus solely on American actions when analyzing international conflicts, labeling it "half-court tennis." She contrasts this with football, where analysts study both teams and individual players. She highlights the Iraq War and Pearl Harbor as examples where a lack of understanding of the opponent's perspective led to significant miscalculations.
She invokes Sun Tzu and Clausewitz, emphasizing the need for a "net assessment" that considers political, military, geographic, economic, and cultural factors of all sides involved. She argues for the importance of culture in understanding an adversary's behavior, cautioning against "mirror imaging" which assumes the opponent will act as oneself would.
To illustrate this, she delves into Japanese culture during the 1930s and 40s, drawing from the "Bushido" literature and Japanese theorists. She uses Nitobe Inazo as a cultural bridge, defining Bushido as a chivalrous code of honor for the warrior class influenced by Buddhism, Shinto, and Confucianism.
From Buddhism, Japanese fatalism, acceptance of death, and emphasis on how one leads their life rather than what they achieve are prevalent. Shinto contributes extreme patriotism and reverence for the emperor. Confucianism regulates society through interlocking social obligations and hierarchies.
She explores Yamamoto Tsunetomo's "Hagakure," emphasizing the samurai's preoccupation with death, honor, and loyalty to their lord, showcasing the significance of committing suicide to avoid shame. She explains that operational success is equated with strategic success, resulting in neglecting grand strategy. A prevailing theme is "death ground" which is that the only way to survive, fight harder rather than surrender.
Another trait explored is willpower, where an emphasis on perseverance and dedication denigrates strategy. She also brings in Taira Shigesuke, highlighting the values of loyalty, duty, and valor within a group context.
In addition, Sarah discusses the importance of surprise attacks and preemption in Japanese warfare, leading to Japan invading all of Manchuria in 1931 and all the way down the coast and up the Yangstar River in 1937, ultimately failing as the resources dry up. She uses Miyamoto Musashi to discuss operational preferences, such as risk intolerance, surprise, and preemptive attacks.
She discusses several sins of omission that would cause the war to go badly, which include Japan's neglect of logistics, the lack of production of equipment, and the neglect of sea lines of communication to protect its territories. She discusses that instead the Navy focused on Fleet on Fleet engagements, not convoy duties. She shows that it led to significant issues for soldiers on the frontlines who weren't getting enough food.
Sarah then examines the consequences of prioritizing loyalty and duty over strategic thinking. She discusses how inter-service rivalries, especially between the Army and Navy, hindered Japan's war efforts, citing examples of failed coordination and information sharing. The bombing of Tokyo caused a loss of faith as it broke the stalemate. The final events of dropping the atomic bombs, coupled with Soviet Union deploying soldiers into Manchuria finally broke the deadlock.
Finally, Sarah offers a critique of US foreign policy, arguing that a better understanding of Japanese motives in the 1930s could have prevented the war. While critical of Japan, she highlights the importance of understanding the logic of the other side to make more informed choices.