Dwarkesh Podcast - Sarah Paine Episode 3: How Mao Conquered China
发布时间:2025-01-30 14:45:25
原节目
这是 Sarah Kirchberger 关于毛泽东的演讲摘要。
Kirchberger 强调毛泽东是 20 世纪一位影响深远的人物,是中国历史上最重要的人物之一,也是一位重要的政治和军事理论家。她明确指出,承认毛泽东的重要性并非赞同,而是准确反映了他持久的全球影响力。
毛泽东的理论被美国的敌人用来从内部控制衰败的国家并实施独裁统治,而且毛泽东也是一位才华横溢的精神病态者。
该演讲借鉴了斯图尔特·施拉姆的毛泽东著作集,重点介绍了先前被省略的部分。 Kirchberger 的方法是将毛泽东分散的思想整合为一个易于理解的分析框架,有助于理解复杂的局势。
Kirchberger 将毛泽东定位为一个三角构建者,参考了克劳塞维茨关于人民、军队和政府的框架。 与传统专注于国家间战争的军事理论家不同,毛泽东的方法是从基层建立权力,构建一个影子政府,最终夺取控制权。这种模式在二战后对许多非殖民化国家特别有吸引力,尤其是那些拥有农业和欠发达经济体的国家,这与俄罗斯的工业基础不同。
Kirchberger 概述了毛泽东赢得中国内战后的行动,包括实施一场涉及消灭整个社会阶层的社会革命。 她指出,这一时期的平民死亡人数超过了二战期间的总死亡人数,突显了毛泽东政权的残酷本质。“大跃进”期间实施的政策导致了大饥荒,造成 4000 万人死亡。 毛泽东不顾普遍存在的饥饿,决定继续出口粮食,这凸显了他将政府收入置于人民福祉之上的优先顺序。 尽管发生了这些暴行,毛泽东仍然是许多中国人心中的英雄,他们认为他统一了中国,结束了屈辱的时代。
Kirchberger 将毛泽东的理论置于他所参与的战争的背景下,从 1911 年清朝的崩溃以及随之而来的军阀之间的多边战争开始。 国民党和共产党最初组成统一战线以消灭这些军阀,但蒋介石后来在白色恐怖中背叛了共产党。 长征导致共产党损失惨重,但日本入侵满洲和随后的侵略迫使国民党和共产党第二次建立统一战线。 毛泽东明白他正在一场区域战争中打一场内战,最终打一场全球战争。
Kirchberger 提出了一个基于克劳塞维茨对伟大领导力的定义(强调智慧和勇气)来分析毛泽东的框架。 她将毛泽东评估为宣传家、社会科学家(专注于数据分析)、作战军事领导人和伟大战略家。
毛泽东最初是一名宣传家,他了解文字的力量以及宣传在获得权力中的重要性。 他专注于传递者、信息和媒介,利用宣传海报、活动家和外国记者来传播他的信息。 信息本身保持简单,使用匹配的口号和诗歌。 毛泽东利用政治动员、教育和戏剧来传播他的意识形态。
作为一名社会科学家,毛泽东专注于通过广泛的数据收集和分析来了解农民。 他得出结论,一小部分人拥有大部分土地,这导致他呼吁革命和土地改革。 通过一场暴力的土地调查运动来确定阶级地位,毛泽东试图激励大多数人口支持革命。
作为一名军事领导人,毛泽东认为政治权力来自枪杆子。 他的军事战略包括引诱敌人进入有利地形进行歼灭。 基地在防御性位置上具有战略重要性。 他的军事力量分为游击队和正规军。
最后,Kirchberger 讨论了毛泽东作为一位伟大战略家,将民族力量的各个要素(如农民、宣传、土地改革、基地和外交)整合为一个连贯的战略。
Kirchberger 还强调了理解基地作用的重要性,基地对于建立忠诚度和在更大的行动中获得动力非常重要。
Kirchberger 最后探讨了毛泽东思想中的二元性,可以追溯到中国的阴阳理论,即所有二元性都存在相互冲突的方面。 这种紧张关系被认为是用来为实践者服务的。
尽管毛泽东取得了许多成功,但他是一位虐待和暴力的领导人,他几乎不关心自己的人身安全,也不关心他所统治的人民。
This is a summary of Sarah Kirchberger's talk on Mao Zedong.
Kirchberger emphasizes that Mao is a consequential figure of the 20th century, one of the most important in Chinese history and a significant political and military theorist. She clarifies that acknowledging Mao's importance is not an endorsement, but rather an accurate reflection of his lasting global impact.
Mao's theories were employed by enemies of the United States to seize control of failing states from within and impose dictatorial rule, and that Mao is also a brilliant psychopath.
The presentation draws from Stuart Shram's collected works of Mao, highlighting sections previously omitted. Kirchberger's approach is to assemble Mao's scattered ideas into a comprehensible framework for analysis, useful for understanding complex situations.
Kirchberger positions Mao as a triangle builder, referencing Clausewitz's framework of people, military, and government. Unlike traditional military theorists focused on state-to-state warfare, Mao's approach deals with building power from the ground up, constructing a shadow government to eventually seize control. This model proved attractive to many decolonizing nations after World War II, particularly those with agricultural and underdeveloped economies, as opposed to Russia's industrial base.
Kirchberger outlines Mao's actions after winning the Chinese Civil War, including imposing a social revolution involving the elimination of entire social classes. She notes that civilian deaths during this period surpassed total deaths in World War II, underscoring the brutal nature of Mao's regime. The Great Famine, caused by policies implemented during the Great Leap Forward, resulted in 40 million deaths. Mao's decision to continue exporting food despite widespread starvation highlighted his prioritization of government income over the well-being of the population. Despite these atrocities, Mao remains a hero to many Chinese, who view him as the one who reunified China and ended the era of humiliation.
Kirchberger contextualizes Mao's theories within the wars he fought, starting with the collapse of the Qing Dynasty in 1911 and the ensuing multilateral warfare among warlords. The Nationalist and Communist parties initially formed a united front to eliminate these warlords, but Chiang Kai-shek later turned on the Communists in the White Terror. The Long March resulted in massive Communist losses, but the Japanese invasion of Manchuria and subsequent aggression forced a second united front between the Nationalists and Communists. Mao understood he was fighting a civil war within a regional war, and eventually a global war.
Kirchberger presents a framework for analyzing Mao based on Clausewitz's definition of great leadership, emphasizing intellect and courage. She assesses Mao as a propagandist, a social scientist (focused on data analysis), an operational military leader, and a grand strategist.
Mao started as a propagandist, understanding the power of words and the importance of propaganda in gaining power. He focused on messenger, message, and medium, using propaganda posters, activists, and foreign journalists to disseminate his message. The message itself was kept simple, using matching slogans and poetry. Mao utilized political mobilization, education, and drama to spread his ideology.
Mao the social scientist focused on understanding the peasantry through extensive data collection and analysis. He concluded that a small percentage of the population owned most of the land, leading to his call for revolution and land reform. By determining class status through a violent land investigation movement, Mao sought to incentivize the majority of the population to support the revolution.
As a military leader, Mao believed political power grew out of the barrel of a gun. His military strategy involved luring the enemy into favorable terrain for annihilation. Base areas were strategically important in defensible locations. His military services were split to guerrilla forces versus conventional forces.
Finally, Kirchberger discusses Mao as a grand strategist, integrating elements of national power like the peasantry, propaganda, land reform, base areas, and diplomacy into a coherent strategy.
Kirchberger also highlights the importance of understanding the role of base areas, which are important to building loyalty and gaining momentum in a larger campaign.
Kirchberger concludes by exploring the dualities in Mao's thinking, going all the way back to Chinese yin and yang theory, that there are aspects of all dualities that are in constant tension with each other. This tension is understood to be used to the practitioner's advantage.
Mao, despite his many successes, was an abusive and violent leader who had little or no concern for his own personal safety, as well as the people that he governed.