首页  >>  来自播客: All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg 更新   反馈  

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg - DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks

发布时间:2025-01-31 21:52:00   原节目
以下是对原文的翻译: 《全情投入》播客深入探讨各种话题,重点关注人工智能、科技、经济和政治。本期节目邀请了优步联合创始人兼CloudKitchens首席执行官特拉维斯·卡兰尼克,以及常驻主持人杰森·卡拉卡尼斯、查马斯·帕里哈皮蒂亚、大卫·弗里德伯格和大卫·萨克斯(他在华盛顿特区短暂加入,提供关于中国人工智能初创公司DeepSeek的专业知识)。 播客首先讨论了雷·达里奥的新书,该书讲述了各国如何破产以及美国减少赤字的重要性。然后,卡兰尼克讨论了CloudKitchens,设想了一个以高质量、低成本和极致便利为特征的食品未来,这都得益于自动化和个性化的饮食偏好。他描述了公司如何利用房地产、软件和机器人技术来降低成本。他解释说,机器人烹饪特定的食物,并准备好包含餐具的送餐袋,在送出门之前是密封的。 大卫·萨克斯加入讨论DeepSeek,这是一家中国人工智能初创公司,发布了一个名为R1的语言模型,可以与OpenAI的O1相媲美。据称DeepSeek以极低的成本实现了这一目标,这引起了市场的关注。萨克斯澄清说,虽然令人印象深刻,但将DeepSeek最终训练运行的成本与美国公司的总研发投入进行比较是具有误导性的。他还指出,DeepSeek可能拥有一个庞大的计算集群,可能使用了英伟达芯片。 小组成员讨论了DeepSeek创新的技术方法,指出计算资源的限制可能促使了独特算法的开发。弗里德伯格和帕里哈皮蒂亚随后讨论了开源模型的影响,认为随着模型本身变得商品化,价值创造可能会转移到应用层。特拉维斯表示,当人工智能变得便宜时,它将被更频繁地使用,因为它具有正向弹性。他指出,将会有大量的用途,例如律师人工智能和自动驾驶汽车人工智能。他们讨论了人工智能在设计先进半导体方面的潜力。 讨论转向中国的竞争格局,卡兰尼克借鉴了他在优步中国的经验,强调了中国强大的复制能力,这最终也带来了创新。小组成员思考了对华出口人工智能芯片的管制问题,想知道这是否是徒劳之举,以及是否会推动中国建立自己的AI基础设施。 小组成员转向国内政治,重点关注唐纳德·特朗普新成立的政府效率部(DOGE)及其减少政府开支的努力。弗里德伯格将其解释为要求联邦雇员回到办公室,同时也是一个收购要约。他们讨论了政府效率部采取的行动以及支出是否可以被强制执行。主持人讨论了通过员工买断、租赁终止和IT优化来节省成本的潜力。帕里哈皮蒂亚强调了工程师在识别浪费性支出方面的重要性以及透明度的意义。 对话转向交通运输的未来,卡兰尼克分享了他与Waymo的经验以及廉价人工智能对自动驾驶汽车的潜在影响。讨论触及了硬件、制造和自动驾驶汽车的能源需求。卡兰尼克认为,有限的电网基础设施可能会导致内燃机自动驾驶汽车的开发。 最后,小组讨论了最近在华盛顿特区发生的直升机坠毁事件,以及关于空中交通管制通信的建议。

The All-In Podcast dives into a variety of topics with a focus on AI, technology, economics, and politics. The episode features Travis Kalanick, co-founder of Uber and CEO of CloudKitchens, alongside regular hosts Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, and David Sacks (who joins briefly from Washington D.C. to provide expertise on the Chinese AI startup, DeepSeek). The podcast begins with a discussion on Ray Dalio's new book about how countries go broke and the importance of the US reducing its deficit. Kalanick then discusses CloudKitchens, envisioning a future of food characterized by high quality, low cost, and extreme convenience through automation and personalized dietary preferences. He describes how the company uses real estate, software, and robotics to drive down costs. He explains that the robots cook specific meals and also prepare the delivery bags complete with utensils, and they're sealed before heading out the door. David Sacks joins to discuss DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup that has released a language model, R1, comparable to OpenAI's O1. The claim that DeepSeek achieved this at a fraction of the cost has caused concern in the market. Sacks clarifies that while impressive, it's misleading to compare DeepSeek's final training run cost to the total R&D investment of American companies. He also points out DeepSeek likely had a substantial compute cluster, potentially using NVIDIA chips. The panel discusses DeepSeek's innovative technical approach, noting that constraints in compute resources may have spurred unique algorithm development. Friedberg and Palihapitiya then address the implications of open source models, arguing that value creation may shift towards the application layer as the models themselves become commoditized. Travis weighs in by saying when AI gets cheap, AI will start to be used more often because it is a positive elasticity. He notes there will be an abundance of uses such as Lawyer AI and Autonomous Car AI. They discuss the potential of AI for designing advanced semiconductors. The discussion shifts to China's competitive landscape, with Kalanick drawing on his experience with Uber China to highlight the country's aggressive copying capabilities, which eventually led to innovation. The panel grapples with the question of export controls on AI chips to China, wondering if this is a fool's errand and will drive China to build its own AI infrastructure. The panel transition to domestic politics, focusing on Donald Trump's newly established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and its efforts to reduce government spending. Friedberg explains it as a demand to federal employees to come back to the office, and a buy offer as well. They discuss the actions Doge has taken and whether spending could be mandated. The hosts discuss the potential for cost savings through employee buyouts, lease terminations, and IT optimization. Palihapitiya emphasizes the importance of engineers in identifying wasteful spending and the significance of transparency. The conversation shifts to the future of transportation, with Kalanick sharing his experiences with Waymo and the potential impact of cheap AI on autonomous vehicles. The discussion touches upon hardware, manufacturing and the energy demands of autonomous vehicles. Kalanick suggests that the limited electric grid infrastructure could lead to the development of combustion engine autonomous vehicles. Lastly, the group touches upon the recent helicopter crash in Washington, DC, as well as recommendations regarding air traffic control communications.