All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg - DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
发布时间:2025-02-07 22:20:00
原节目
以下是将内容翻译成中文:
"All In Podcast" 节目以轻松愉快的介绍开场,重点介绍了其向健康领域的扩展,并推广订阅方式。随后,主持人深入探讨了 Friedberg 和 Ray Dalio 最近的一次对话,指出其受到了积极的评价,并且 Dalio 的建议与潜在的特朗普政府政策相符。
本期节目的主要话题围绕政府效率部 (Department of Government Efficiency, Doge) 及其对美国国际开发署 (United States Agency for International Development, USAID) 的调查展开。Valor Equity Partners 的首席执行官 Antonio Rossi 作为嘉宾加入讨论。对话首先概述了 USAID 的使命、预算和运作,强调其触及 130 个国家,并在拜登政府领导下预算大幅增加。
然后,主持人展示了 Doge 发现的有争议的支出案例,包括在越南资助电动汽车充电站、在危地马拉资助变性手术和 LGBTQ 活动,以及一部 DEI 音乐剧。Antonio 将 Doge 的行动与收购 Twitter 的事件进行了比较,强调需要解决官僚机构的效率低下和浪费性支出,以及阻止“觉醒思潮病毒”。他表示担心官僚机构正在变成一个盗贼统治集团,并援引 USAID 资助的政治捐款作为潜在腐败的证据。
Sacks 提供了历史背景,提到了 1941 年的杜鲁门委员会和克林顿总统领导下的重塑政府国家伙伴关系,作为之前为打击政府浪费所做的努力。他强调,当前的 Doge 行动因其实时数据透明性而与众不同。 Sacks 还提出了涉及政府向媒体渠道输送回扣资金的潜在腐败问题,以及缺乏问责制。数据显示,USAID 的资金已流入期刊、数据库和订阅服务,以至于在拜登政府领导下,一些媒体机构的支出突然膨胀到每年 800 万美元。
Friedberg 提倡以零基础预算作为 Doge 的框架,敦促对政府的基本作用进行根本性重新评估,并引发了关于人道主义援助、国际安全和学生贷款等问题的辩论。Antonio 强调政府内部缺乏适当的核对程序。他提到各部门在没有适当验证或财务主管职能的情况下向财政部申请资金。
讨论转向人权问题,以及 USAID 如何可能夸大其词人权问题以获得更多资金。同时还探讨了以前左派如何反对干预国际事务,但现在这一切都成了两党勾结的一部分。
David Sachs 从 EOB 加入,详细阐述了 USAID 的情况如何凸显资金以循环方式流向各个实体。他强调了左翼政策在全球范围内缺乏当地支持,并宣布了一项计划,特朗普在他的第一周就提出了这项计划,以支持在经济的各个部门负责任地使用和增长数字资产和区块链。Sachs 说,在接下来的几个月里,关于市场结构的法案和关于稳定币的法案应该会陆续出台。目标是将创新留在国内,保护消费者。Sacks 还宣布了一项新的 AI 行动计划,以扭转拜登政府的过度监管。
回到 Doge 的话题,主持人讨论了一些民主党人如何将其描绘成反对民主党利益,以及他们强调特朗普有可能因 Doge 而获得民众的支持。此外,他们还讨论了 Rahm Emanuel 关于民主党人忘记了家庭生活问题的评论的重要性,并讨论了新的特朗普减税计划,该计划有利于劳工。
对话转向特朗普建立美国首个主权财富基金的行政命令,该基金以出售 TikTok 为基础。Chamath 建议由资深政治家组成一个管理机构,投资于美国公司。Antonio 支持这种做法,认为这是一种创造产业政策的方式。Friedberg 反对此观点,认为美国政府不擅长资本主义,并建议利用这些资金来实现资产的货币化。随着播客的展开,一位联邦法官发布了一项临时限制令,限制 Doge 访问财政部的数据。
接下来,小组成员讨论了谷歌最近的收益,重点是增加对 AI 基础设施的投资以及关于其对就业岗位取代的影响的辩论。Antonio 表示,这些模型是基本商品,重要的数据才是关键,但他认为谷歌将会获胜,因为他们拥有 ROIC。尽管主持人普遍乐观地认为 AI 有潜力提高生产力并创造新的机会,但他们也承认需要进行再培训和适应。
最后,对话转向健康和保健,特别是使用 GLP-1 受体激动剂进行减肥和其他潜在的健康益处。他们提到了一个强调 GLP-1 益处的研究,并讨论了这些效果是由于药物本身造成的,还是因为肥胖对健康有害造成的。Chamath、Antonio 和 Friedberg 分享了他们关于饮食、锻炼和健康方案的个人想法和经验。Friedberg 说他正在增加他的举重训练。在主持人结束节目时,他们给听众留下了四个建议:获得良好的睡眠、锻炼、饮食和冥想,并推广他们的“all in NGO”(All In非政府组织)。
The "All In Podcast" kicks off with a lighthearted introduction, highlighting its expansion into the health space and promoting ways to subscribe. The hosts then delve into a recent conversation between Friedberg and Ray Dalio, noting its positive reception and the alignment of Dalio's recommendations with potential Trump administration policies.
The main topic of the episode centers on the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) and its investigation into the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Antonio Rossi, CEO of Valor Equity Partners, joins the discussion as a guest. The conversation starts by outlining USAID's mission, budget, and operations, highlighting its reach into 130 countries and a significant budget increase under the Biden administration.
The hosts then present examples of controversial spending uncovered by Doge, including funding for EV charging stations in Vietnam, sex changes and LGBTQ activism in Guatemala, and a DEI musical. Antonio draws parallels between the Doge initiative and the Twitter takeover, emphasizing the need to address bureaucratic inefficiencies and wasteful spending, as well as to stop the "woke mind virus." He expresses concern that the bureaucracy is turning into a kleptocracy, citing political contributions funded by USAID as evidence of potential corruption.
Sacks provides historical context, referencing the Truman Committee in 1941 and the National Partnership for Reinventing Government under President Clinton as previous attempts to combat government waste. He stresses that the current Doge initiative stands out due to its real-time data transparency. Sacks also brings up potential corruption involving back-channel money flowing from the government to media outlets, and the lack of accountability. Data is revealed detailing that USAID money has gone into journals, databases, and subscription services to the point that some media outlets have suddenly ballooned into a spend of 8 million a year under the Biden Administration.
Friedberg advocates for zero-based budgeting as a framework for Doge, urging a fundamental re-evaluation of the essential role of government and prompting a debate on issues like humanitarian aid, international security, and student loans. Antonio underscores the lack of a proper reconciliation process within the government. He mentions departments requesting funds from the Treasury without proper verification or a controller function.
The discussion turns to human rights, and how USAID has potentially embellished human rights issues to gain more funding. It also looks at how previously the left was against intervening in international affairs, but it is all part of a bipartisan grift.
David Sachs, joining from the EOB, elaborates on how the USAID situation highlights round-tripping of money to various entities. He underscores the lack of local support for left-wing policies worldwide and announces a plan, spelled out by Trump in his first week, to support responsible use and growth of digital assets and blockchains across every sector of the economy. Sachs says that over the next few months, legislation should be moving on to a bill of market structure and the other will be stable coins. The aim is to onshore innovation and protect consumers. Sacks also announces a commitment to a new AI action plan, to reverse the Biden administration's heavy regulation.
Returning to the topic of Doge, the hosts discuss how some Democrats are painting it as oppositional to the Democrat Party interests, and they highlight the potential for Trump to gain popularity, due to Doge. Furthermore, they discuss the importance of Rahm Emanuel's comment about Democrats having forgotten kitchen table issues and discuss the new Trump tax plan, pro labor.
The conversation shifts to Trump's executive order to establish the first sovereign wealth fund for the United States, anchored by the sale of TikTok. Chamath proposes a governing body of elder statesmen, to invest in American companies. Antonio supports this as a way to create an industrial policy. Friedberg is against the idea, saying that the US Government sucks at capitalism and suggests using the find for monetizing assets. As the podcast unfolds, a federal judge issues a temporary restraining order, limiting Doge's access to Treasury data.
Next, the group discussed Google's recent earnings, focusing on increased investment in AI infrastructure and the debate over its impact on job displacement. Antonio says that the models are basic commodities, with data essential mattering, but he believes Google will win because they have ROIC. While the hosts are generally optimistic about AI's potential to boost productivity and create new opportunities, they acknowledge the need for retraining and adaptation.
Finally, the conversation turns to health and wellness, particularly the use of GLP-1 receptor agonists for weight loss and other potential health benefits. They reference a study highlighting the benefits of GLP-1s, and discuss whether the effects are due to the drugs or due to becoming obese is bad for one's health. Chamath, Antonio, and Friedberg share their personal thoughts and experiences related to diet, exercise, and health protocols. Friedberg says that he's in a process of increasing his weightlifting routine. As the hosts sign-off, they leave listeners with their four pieces of advice for people: get good sleep, exercise, diet and meditation, and promote their “all in NGO”.