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Acquired - Charlie Munger

发布时间:2023-10-30 01:49:26   原节目
这是一期引人注目的“Acquired”节目,由Andrew Marks组织,在洛杉矶查理·芒格的家中进行,并与这位传奇投资者进行了一场对话。 Ben Gilbert和David Rosenthal与芒格,以及一小群人一起,进行了广泛的讨论,涵盖了体育博彩、零售投资、好市多(Costco)、成功合作关系的本质、风险投资、加密货币以及整个投资格局等话题。 节目一开始,芒格对体育博彩广告的泛滥表示担忧,将它们比作赌场和赛马场,认为它们对社会没有益处。他将这种“赌博”与沃伦·巴菲特的投资哲学进行了对比,强调成为“庄家”(拥有内在优势的实体),而不是“赌徒”的重要性。然后,他批评了零售交易,特别是像文艺复兴科技公司(Renaissance Technologies)这样公司使用的算法策略,认为它是一种基于短期价格波动的赌博,而不是基于对公司基本面的分析。芒格提倡对短期收益征税,以抑制这种行为。 对话的重要部分集中在芒格极其欣赏的公司好市多(Costco)上。他回忆起最初通过Rod Hill接触到Price Club的过程,以及他的投资。他强调了好市多卓越的商业模式,包括其低成本结构、高库存周转率以及无需大量资本再投资。他强调好市多致力于提供比任何人都低的价格,从而带来强大的客户忠诚度。当被问及沃尔玛为什么不能与之竞争时,芒格表示他们太拘泥于自己的理念。他还解释说,好市多的成功与管理层的素质、整体文化以及CEO Jim Senegal有关,Jim Senegal禁止Craig Jelinek提高热狗的价格,并且公司专注于富裕客户。 在讨论他与沃伦·巴菲特的合作关系时,芒格强调了共同价值观和相互尊重的重要性。他指出,巴菲特优先考虑投资的安全性,而伯克希尔则更多地利用杠杆。关于合作关系,他提到一种模式并非必要,当一个人擅长一件事,另一个人擅长另一件事时,合作关系就会奏效。他说沃伦和他现在和过去一样快乐。 芒格对风险投资提出了批判性的看法,认为大多数风险投资“做得不好”,类似于赌博,热门交易很快就会过热。他质疑这是否是鼓励创新的最佳融资体系。他还强调,风险投资家并不认为他们是创业者的合作伙伴,并试图帮助他们成功。他批评了风险投资基金的典型费用结构,认为这种结构激励基金经理优先考虑自己的收益,而不是投资者的成功。 谈到当前的投资格局,芒格对过多的资金追逐有限的机会表示担忧。他用劳动力价值向资本转移的现象来说明他的观点。他认为现在的“香蕉”(机会)比以往任何时候都少。他认为未来20年中国公司具有潜力,而且这些公司比许多公司更具吸引力。虽然他觉得这些公司很令人兴奋,但他觉得台积电没那么有趣。他强调投资者需要在特定领域发展深厚的专业知识,并专注于具有持久竞争优势的企业。 他以投资比亚迪为例,说明这可能是一项高风险、高回报的投资,这得益于其创始人非凡的才能和职业道德。他指出其创始人的天才之处,以及其职业道德甚至超过埃隆·马斯克。 他指出,他在70岁时就知道投资很难。他还说,每个人都开始相信自己说的废话。 芒格最后对当前市场环境下投资者面临的挑战进行了现实评估,强调了耐心、自律和正直的重要性。

This is a remarkable episode of Acquired, featuring a conversation with the legendary investor Charlie Munger at his Los Angeles home, organized by Andrew Marks. Ben Gilbert and David Rosenthal engage Munger, alongside a small group, in a wide-ranging discussion covering topics from gambling in sports, retail investing, Costco, the nature of successful partnerships, venture capital, cryptocurrency, and the investment landscape as a whole. The episode begins with Munger expressing concern about the proliferation of sports betting advertisements, comparing them to casinos and racetracks, deeming them not beneficial to society. He contrasts this type of "gambling" with Warren Buffett's investment philosophy, emphasizing the importance of being "the house" (the entity with an inherent advantage) rather than "the punter" (the gambler). He then critiques retail trading, particularly the algorithmic strategies employed by firms like Renaissance Technologies, viewing it as a form of gambling based on short-term price fluctuations rather than fundamental company analysis. Munger advocates for a tax on short-term gains to discourage this behavior. A significant portion of the conversation centers around Costco, a company Munger admires immensely. He recounts his initial encounter with Price Club through Rod Hill, and his investment. He highlights Costco's exceptional business model, including its low-cost structure, high inventory turnover, and the lack of significant capital reinvestment. He emphasizes Costco's commitment to offering lower prices than anyone else, which leads to strong customer loyalty. When asked why Walmart couldn't compete, Munger stated that they are too wedded to their own ideals. He also explains that Costco's success is linked to the quality of management, the overall culture and Jim Senegal, the CEO who forbade Craig Jelinek from raising the price of hot dogs, and the company's focus on affluent customers. Discussing his partnership with Warren Buffett, Munger stresses the importance of shared values and mutual respect. He notes that Buffett prioritizes the safety of investments, while Berkshire utilizes more leverage. In terms of partnerships, he mentions that one formula is not necessary and partnerships work when one is good at one thing and another is good at another. He says that Warren and him have the same amount of fun now as they did in the past. Munger offers a critical perspective on venture capital, deeming most of it "poorly done" and akin to gambling, with hot deals that quickly overheat. He questions whether it is the best funding system to encourage innovation. He also highlights that venture capitalists don't feel that they are their partners trying to help them to come. He criticizes the typical fee structure of venture capital funds, arguing that it incentivizes fund managers to prioritize their own earnings over the success of their investors. Turning to the current investment landscape, Munger expresses concern about the overabundance of capital chasing limited opportunities. He uses the shift in value from labor to capital to illustrate his point. He sees fewer bananas (opportunities) than ever. He believes there is potential for Chinese companies in the next 20 years and that these companies are more attractive than many. Although he finds these companies exciting, he finds TSMC not as interesting. He emphasizes the need for investors to develop deep expertise in specific areas and to focus on businesses with durable competitive advantages. He uses his investment in BYD as an example of a potentially high-risk, high-reward venture, driven by the extraordinary talents and work ethic of its founder. He notes the genius behind its founder and the work ethic is more than that of Elon Musk. He notes that he knew when he was 70 years old that investing was hard. He also states that everybody is getting to believe their own bullshit. Munger concludes with a realistic assessment of the challenges facing investors in the current market environment, stressing the importance of patience, discipline, and integrity.